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Stefan

Thiesen
thiesen@uni-muenster.de

100 % SE for the


Philippine Islands
An Integrative cross disciplinary scenario based assessment with a
special focus on Mindanao Island

Presentation at the University of Flensburg
Ph.D. Seminar in Energy and Ressource Management, Sept. 23, 2013
An Optimistic Progression Scenario
Hypotheses
To assure a minimum livelihood for the Filipino
population in the long term, population control,
independence from staple food imports and energy
independence are a MUST.
At the current population level a 100% sustainable
domestic energy supply is technologically and
economically feasible even with moderately
increasing demand.
Fundamental Barriers
and Challenges
At current growth rate population doubles within 35 to 40 years

Agricultural carrying capacity at current production is nearly reached

Wide spread recurring natural and man made calamities

Corruption

Public awareness of climate and energy issues

Economic growth and energy consumption cannot be completely de-coupled

Sooner or later economy will outgrow supply again (next Page)


RE/SE are limited, too!

Successfull consumption reduction


despite economic growth (i.e. factor 4 scenario)

Energy
cons. Econ.
100% RE/SE Era
growth

RE/SE supply in % of consumption

Time
Three Interlocked Topics
Development
of domestic
industrial
capacities
Appropriate
technology Humans
mix

Sustainable
Energy
Supply
Observations
(...) the country is poor; the nancial crisis through which it is passing
is acute, and every one points out with the nger the persons causing
the trouble, yet no one dares lay hands upon them!

Jos Rizal, The Philippines a Century Hence, Manila, 1912


() Even without these
shocks, however, the
Philippine economy was fast
approaching crisis
Paul Krugman, Transforming the Philippine
Economy, NEDA/UNDP, 1992

() gaping social equalities


() was a subject studiously
avoided by () the
administration, because it le
the country into the worst
scal crisis ever
Walden Bello, the Political Economy
of Permanent Crisis in the Philippines,
University of the Philippines Press, 2002
(...) the CPM also crafted an agenda, referred to as Development
and ReformAgenda for 2010-2013. The agenda oered specic
policy and program proposals to address what CPM called as a
triple crisis of governance,economic, climate/environmental
change.
Ronald D. Holmes, The Curious Cases of Philippine Civil
Society and Decentralization, in Chasing the Wind
Assessing Philippine Democracy, UNDP & Commission on Human Rights, Philippines, 2012
Instead of realizing that there is nothing at all inside the Hawaiian
sherman, for instance, which would make him in any way
whatsoever want to wear a business suit and compete in the
stockmarket, many Westerners seem to insist on just that.

Michael Kioni Dudley and Keoni Kealoha Agard, A Call For Hawaiian Sovereignty, Na Kane O Ka
Malo Press, 1993
Philippine Social Forces Map
(from Philippine Civil Society Index, 2011)
Philippine Civil-Social Inuence Map
(from Philippine Civil Society Index, 2011)
Reality is not a box
Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful (George Box)


Preliminary Overview of Factors
Touching on the Energy Transition
Philosophy and Aproach
Anthropology

etc Ethnology

Religious
Biology studies

Economics

Engineering,
Psychology IT, technology

Physics,
Sociology
Math

Political
Science

Corollary: Economic activities and outcomes result from human motivations,


decisions and actions taking place within cultural frameworks and the
limitations and possibilities of a real world governed by natural laws.
Questions
How to get there (100% RE/SE)?

Which technologies can be applied?

What are the technological, political, economic and


societal/cultural drivers and barriers, necessasry
changes and/or bypasses?

What are the best study approaches for a deep,


integrated assessment of the countries situation and
outlook?
Example: Typical stakeholder
involvement in simplied decision
process

Decision makers evaluate information


and modify proposed action
Decision
makers
Decision Analysts
makers Experts
Decision Analysts Stakeholder
makers Experts

DECISION
representatives
Analysts Stakeholder
Experts samples
One Big Happy Family!

Stakeholder Analyst

(Political)
Financers decision
makers

Experts
The Curse of the Political Families

Approx. 100 Family clans run the countries economy


The majority of senators and governors recruit
directly or indirectly from those families
As of April 2010: 107 private armies
Families have distributed wealth, power and regions
among themselves
A family often has control over much of a business
eld nationwide or several in a region
RESULT EXAMPLE
FIT introduced by RE act,
but eectively fenced o
to general public by;

Uneconomical taris
Bureaucratic red tape
Required proof of
commerciality
Strong focus on Wind
(200 MW) and
Hydro (250 MW)
Only 50 MW solar





Bypassing the Barrier: Look for Respected
Change Makers in Areas Unaected by Elites

Address Individuals, not institutions


Enlightened
Avoid playing the teacher celebrities

Bypass the involved big players Private


pioneers
Possibly approach as yet uninvolved
businesses (i.e. nickel mining)
Small and intermediate scale solutions Community
leaders
Stress benet for families, communities Energy Transition
Focus on pioneers, multipliers,
crystallization points
Work out benets rather than Religious
responsibilities Env.
leaders

Pressure
groups
Transportation
Philippines DO have a (little bit of)
car industry!

No big players hindering E-


mobility!

First modern car developed in


Phils: The Gitano GT 111 electric
roadster

Currently North South rail project


under way (Phil/CHN cooperation)

Question: Marine and Air trac...


Putting things a bit into perspective...

Ant
hro
pol Eth
etc nol Reli
ogy ogy Eng
gio
Biol Ec ine
us
ogy on erin
Psy stu
om g,
dies
cho
ics IT,
log Phy tec
y Soci Poli sics, hno
olo tical
gy Mat log
Scie h y
nce
Philosophy and Approach
Quantiable
hard data
and
relations

Consensus
assumptions
Model for Heuristic
deductions
and
common
decision and semi
quantative
sense making factors

Intelligent
guessing /
proxy data