CENSOS POBLACION

1972 10
1981 30
1993 70
2007 150

Ecuacin : Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) t

Combinaciones con dos censos :

1,972 1,981 === >
1,972 1,993 === >
1,972 2,007 === >
1,981 1,993 === >
1,981 2,007 === >
1,993 2,007 === >

Combinaciones con tres censos :

1,972 1,981 1,993 === >
1,972 1,981 2,007 === >
1,972 1,993 2,007 === >
1,981 1,993 2,007 === >

Combinacin con cuatro censos :

1,972 1,981 1,993 2,007 === >

APLICACIN DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS

CENSO POBLACION X=T Y=LogPF X*Y

1972 10 -35 1 -35
1981 30 -26 1.477 -38.41
1993 70 -14 1.845 -25.83
2007 150 0 2.176 0
-75 -99.237

CALCULO DE "B" Y "R"

B= 0.0305 r=
 CENSOS POBLACION
1972 10
1981 30
1993 70
2007 150

Ecuacin : Pf = Po ( 1 + r*t)

Combinaciones con dos censos :

1,972 1,981 === >
1,972 1,993 === >
1,972 2,007 === >
1,981 1,993 === >
1,981 2,007 === >
1,993 2,007 === >

Combinaciones con tres censos :

1,972 1,981 1,993 === >
1,972 1,981 2,007 === >
1,972 1,993 2,007 === >
1981 1993 2007 === >

Combinacin con cuatro censos :

1972 1981 1993 2007 === >

APLICACIN DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS

CENSO POBLACION X=T Y=LogPF X*Y

1972 10 -35 1 -35
1981 30 -26 1.477 -38.41
1993 70 -14 1.845 -25.83
2007 150 0 2.176 0
-75 -99.237

CALCULO DE "B" Y "R"

B= 5.3175 r12=
 CURVA REPRESENTATIVA

r = 12.98% 0.1298 CURVA 2007

r = 9.71% 0.0971 Pf1 150
r = 8.04% 0.0804 Pf2 150
r = 7.32% 0.0732 Pf3 150
r = 6.39% 0.0639 Pf4 150
r = 5.59% 0.0559 Pf5 150
Pf6 150
Pf7 150
r1 = 9.35% 0.0935 Pf8 150
r2 = 7.66% 0.0766 Pf9 150
r3 = 7.79% 0.0779 Pf10 150
r4 = 6.33% 0.0633 Pf11 150
Pf12 150

r5 = 7.62% 0.0762

X^2
1225
676
196
0
2097

7.28% 0.0728 Pf1 Pf2 Pf3 Pf4

 CURVA REPRESENTATIVA
r1= 22.22% 0.2222
r2= 28.57% 0.2857
r3= 40.00% 0.4000 CURVA 2007
r4= 11.11% 0.1111 Pf1 150
r5= 15.38% 0.1538 Pf2 150
r6= 8.16% 0.0816 Pf3 150
Pf4 150
Pf5 150
r7= 15.87% 0.1587 Pf6 150
r8= 18.54% 0.1854 Pf7 150
r9= 20.41% 0.2041 Pf8 150
r10= 9.52% 0.0952 Pf9 150
Pf10 150
Pf11 150
r 11= 12.79% 0.1279 Pf12 150

X^2
1225
676
196
0
2097

3.54% 0.0354

Pf1 Pf2 Pf3 Pf4 Pf5 Pf6

ENTATIVA

1993 1981 1972 SUMATORIA

27.158 6.277 2.092 35.527
40.991 13.483 5.856 60.330
50.776 20.064 10.000 80.840
55.819 23.923 12.671 92.413
63.055 30.000 17.186 110.241
70.000 36.424 22.316 128.740
42.890 14.666 6.558 64.114
53.346 21.992 11.314 86.652
52.494 21.344 10.868 84.706
63.502 30.396 17.492 111.390
53.680 22.247 11.492 87.419
56.106 24.152 12.835 93.093

Pf2 Pf3 Pf4 Pf5 Pf6 Pf7 Pf8 Pf9 Pf10 Pf11 Pf12
ENTATIVA

1993 1981 1972 SUMATORIA

9.036 0.813 0.134 9.983
4.447 0.218 0.023 4.688
1.350 0.024 0.001 1.375
34.315 9.692 3.755 47.762
20.231 3.633 1.002 24.866
50.000 19.499 9.623 79.122
19.069 3.255 0.864 23.189
13.866 1.801 0.390 16.057
11.141 1.200 0.225 12.566
41.973 14.089 6.213 62.275
27.820 6.564 2.222 36.605
92.105 60.637 44.317 197.059

f3 Pf4 Pf5 Pf6 Pf7 Pf8 Pf9 Pf10 Pf11 Pf12

 DIFERENCIA ABSOLUTA
0.000
24.803
45.312
56.886
74.714
93.212
28.587
51.125
2.713
23.971
51.891
57.565

Pf9 Pf10 Pf11 Pf12

 DIFERENCIA ABSOLUTA
0.000
5.295
8.608
37.778
14.883
69.139
13.206
6.074
24.040
25.669
26.622
187.076

f10 Pf11 Pf12