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Naisha Tobias

Knight
AP Statistics
13 December 2016

Chapter 8 Investigative Task- Smoking

In 1986, the American Journal of Public Health published a study on the number of

cigarettes adults consume and the CHD mortality rate, and the study was taken over 21 different

countries. Due to its nation high consumption, the Unites States government wishes to cut the

utilization of cigarettes in half therefore cutting the health effects of smoking in half as well. This

report will analyze the effects of cigarette consumption (per adult per year) on the CHD death

rate (per 100, 00 people) and determining the possible health benefits of USAs proposition.

In this experiment, the 21 countries that were examined the cigarette consumption mean

totaled to 2146.1 per person per year along with the standard deviation 807.9 per person per year.

One the other hand the mean for the CHD fatality rate was 144.9 and a standard deviation of 66.5

per 100,000 people. Shown in the graph above the association between the two (CHD death rate

and cigarette consumption) is quite strong. The graph itself is moderately strong with a

correlation of R= 0.534, the shape and the direction of the graph is positive and linear and it also

does not have any outliers.


The graph shows

that countries with

higher cigarette

consumption have

higher CHD

fatality rate. Yet

there are also some

unusual countries

like Canada and New Zealand who have the same mortality rate yet their consumption is

separated by 130 more smokers. The same instance applies for Switzerland and United Kingdom.

Switzerland has 2780 citizens per year that smoke while the UK has 2790 citizens and although

there is only a 10 citizen gap, their mortality rates have a questionable difference of 69 in terms

of 100,000 deaths. Though the points are noticeable, they do not contribute to a drastic change in

the data.

In terms of the model, it is straight enough, has two quantitative variables, and has no

outliers therefore the model can be associated as a linear one and it can also have a correlation.

As stated before the correlation is R=0.534 and R Squared=0.285. From this the equation

=50.471+0.044x arises and this is shown in the model. The equation predicts that for every 100

cigarettes consumed by one individual then there will be a 50.471 increase in the CHD death

rates. While now going back to R Squared which is 0.285, that tells us that there is a 28.5% of

the variance of CHD death rates can be explained by the cigarette consumption.

Considering the proposition that the US plans to enforce, if the nation were to cut their

utilization of cigarettes down by half they would be at 1950 citizens smoking per year; the
mortality rate would then be 128.5 deaths in 100,000 citizens. In terms of the model, not reality,

there is a chance the CHD mortality rates will not decrease because that would be speaking of

causation.