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CHAPTER 2: PROBABILITY

2.1 Basic Probability

Random experiment results in one of a number of


possible outcomes. The outcome that occurs cannot be
predicted with certainty.

Examples: Tossing a coin, rolling a die.

Sample Space (S) - the list of all possible outcomes of a


random experiment; S= {O1, O2, , On}.

Experiment Sample Space


Tossing a coin once S = {H, T}
Rolling a die once S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Tossing a coin twice S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

H=Head, T=Tail

Example 1: Tossing a coin twice (tree diagrams)

1st toss 2nd toss Outcomes

H H HH
T HT

T H TH

T TT
Probability

Each outcome Oi in the sample space S (i=1, 2, n) is


assigned a probability value pi that is a number between
0 and 1. The probabilities are chosen such that their sum
over all of the outcomes in S is 1: p1 +p2 + + pn =1.

The probability of outcome Oi is denoted as P(Oi )=pi.

Event - any subset of a sample space

Sample Space S

Event A

Examples:

Experiment S Event
Tossing a coin {H, T} Head is obtained = {H}
Rolling a die {1,2,3,4,5,6} Number of dots is even
={2,4,6}
Rolling a coin {HH, HT, The same outcome in both
twice TH, TT} tosses ={HH, TT}

The probability P(A) of an event A is obtained by


summing the probabilities of the outcomes contained in
A. Thus 0P(A) 1 and P(S)=1.

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Conclusion: If S consists of n equally likely outcomes, an
event A consists of k outcomes in, then
k
P( A)
n

Example 2: Two fair dice are thrown, one red and one
blue. What is the probability that the red die has a score
that is strictly greater than the score on the blue die?

Solution:

Example 3: A fair coin is tossed twice. Find the probability


that at least 1 head occurs.

Solution:

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2.2 Algebra of Events
Venn Diagrams
S = the interior of a rectangle, outcomes in S are points
in the rectangle, events are regions inside the rectangle

A
A (complement of A) A does not occur (all outcomes
in S that are not in A)

A
A

A B - union of A and B (all outcomes that are either in


A or B or both)

A B

A B (at least one of A and B occurs)

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A B - intersection of A and B (all outcomes that are in
both A and B)

A B

A B (A and B both occur)

A and B are mutually exclusive if the have no outcomes


in common (can never occur simultaneously)

A B

Mutually exclusive events (A B is empty)

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Probability Rules

S
A

1. Complement Rule: P(A) = 1 - P(A),


2. Addition Rule: For any two events A and B,
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)-P(A B).

A B

In particular, if A and B are mutually exclusive,

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B).

3. P(A) = P(A B) + P(A B).

The above rule is a simple consequence of the


equality: A = (A B) U (A B) and Rule 2 for
mutually exclusive events A B and A B.

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Interpretation (Table of probabilities):

B B
A P(A B) P(A B) P(A)
A P(A B) P(A B) P(A)
P(B) P(B) 1

Example 4: You have torn a tendon and are facing surgery


to repair it. Infection occurs in 3% of such operations, the
repair fails in 14%, and both infection and failure occurs
together in 1%. What percent of the operations succeed and
are free from infection?

Solution:

Example 5: A survey of 200 graduates provided the


following data:
Working (W) Not Working
Males (M) 80 40
Females (F) 40 40

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Find the probabilities that a randomly selected graduate is a
working person, a male, a working male. What is the
probability that a randomly selected person is a male or
working?

Solution:

Example 6:
Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed
for scratch and shock resistance. The results from 100 disks
are summarized below:

shock resistance
high low
scratch high 70 9
resistance low 16 5

Let A denote the event that a disk has high shock


resistance, and let B denote the event that a disk has high

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scratch resistance. If a disk is selected at random, determine
the following probabilities:

(a) P(A) (b) P(B) (c) P(A/)


(d) P(A B) (e) P(A B)

Solution:

2.3 Conditional Probability

Example 7: Survey continued.


(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected person
works?
(b) Find the probability that the person works if the
person is a man?
Solution:

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P(B|A) - the probability of an event B given that the event
A has occurred

B A

P(B|A) = the size of the common part A and B relative to


that of A.

Assuming P(A) is not zero, we have the following


definition

The conditional probability P(B|A) of an event


B given an event A is defined by

P( A B)
P( B | A)
P( A)

Example 8: Use the formula to recalculate the probability


(b) in the above example.

Solution:

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Conclusion: (Multiplication Rule)

For any two events A and B,

P(A B) = P(A) P(B/A).

Tree Diagram Interpretation

event
A P(B|A) B
P(A) AB

P(A) P(B|A) = P(A B)

Example 9: Shock and scratch resistance contd.

Determine the following probabilities: P(A| B) and P(B|A).


Solution:

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Sampling Without and With Replacement

Sampling without replacement: items are not replaced


after being sampled (each outcome depends on all
previous outcomes)
Sampling with replacement: each item is replaced after
being sampled (population is the same on each draw,
outcomes do not depend on each other).

Example 10: If we randomly pick up two television tubes


without replacement from a shipment of 240 TV tubes of
which 15 are defective, what is the probability that
(a) both are nondefective,
(b) at least one of the two is nondefective,
Solution:

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2.4 Independence

A and B are independent if P(B|A) = P(B).

Conclusion: A, B are independent if and only if


P(A B) = P(A) P(B).

Example 11: Shock and scratch resistance contd.


Are events A and B independent?
Solution:

Example 12: The primary cooling unit in a nuclear plant


has reliability (the probability that the unit will not fail)
0.999. There is also a back-up cooling unit to substitute for
the primary unit when it fails. The reliability of the back-up
is 0.890. Find the reliability of the cooling system of the
power plant. Assume that the primary and back-up units
fail independently.

Solution:

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Example 13: The following circuit operates if and only if
there is a path of functional devices from left to right.
Assume that devices fail independently and that the
probability that each device functions is shown on the
graph below.

0.90

0.90

0.90

What is the probability that the circuit operates?

Solution:

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2.5 Counting Techniques

Example 14: A certain make of automobile comes with


either a small or large engine, is available in any of three
colours: red, blue and green, and three choices of a stereo
system. In how many ways can a buyer choose a car?

Solution:

The Multiplication Rule for Counting Techniques

Suppose an operation is to be performed in k steps. If there


are n1 ways to perform step 1, and for each of these ways
there are n2 ways to perform step 2, and if for each choice
to perform the first two steps there are n3 ways to perform
step 3, and so on, then the total number of ways to perform
the operation in k steps is n1 * n2* *nk .

Tree Diagram:

1 1 1

2 2 2
.
.
n2 nk
n1
step 1 step 2 step k

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Example 15: A test consists of 15 questions. Ten are true-
false questions, and five are multiple-choice questions that
have four choices each. A student must select an answer for
each question. In how many ways can this be done?

Solution:

Example 16: A computer password consists of eight


characters.

(a) How many different passwords are possible if each


character may be any lowercase letter or digit?

(b) How many different passwords are possible if each


character may be any lowercase letter or digit, and at
least one character must be a digit?

Solution:

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Factorials

If n is a positive integer, the quantity n! (read n factorial)


is defined as

n! = n *(n-1)* (n-2)* *2*1.

Also 0! is defined as 1.

Permutations

A permutation of k objects from n objects (nk) is an


ordered sequence of k objects selected without
replacement from the group of n objects. The number of
possible permutations of k objects from n objects is

Pkn n (n 1) (n 2)...(n k 1)

Suppose the objects are o1, o2,, on.

o1 o2 o3

o2 o3 o4

on on
on

n (n-1) (n-2) (n-k+1)

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Remark: It is easy to verify that
n!
Pkn n (n 1) (n 2)...(n k 1) .
(n k )!

Example 17: Five people stand in line at a movie theater.


In how many different ways can they be arranged?

Solution:

Combinations

A combination of k objects from n objects (nk) is un


unordered collection of k objects selected without
replacement from the n objects. The number of possible
combinations of k objects from n objects is

n n!
Ckn
k (n k )!k !

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Example 18: Five pairs of socks (each pair has a different
colour) are to be placed in 10 drawers (at most one pair in
each drawer). In how many ways can this be done?

Solution:

Example 19: What is the probability of winning the main


jackpot in 6-49 game?
Solution:

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