3 views

Uploaded by Cindy

- Hacking 71 - Equipossibility Theories of Probability
- MATH 10 Q4.2 (Short 60 Copies)
- 3Strcutral Reliability
- Probability
- Week 3_1_Prob
- 001073
- Stats Case 3
- sample_mid_chs._2-_3_
- UUni 6SSB
- 02 Probability
- Probability
- Stat
- grade 7 7 5 l3
- Statistics
- STA301_Lec17
- Chap 5 - Sec 5.3
- rockstarroadtrip
- CS+501+Tutorial-1
- Badri Mtech
- Notes 12

You are on page 1of 19

possible outcomes. The outcome that occurs cannot be

predicted with certainty.

random experiment; S= {O1, O2, , On}.

Tossing a coin once S = {H, T}

Rolling a die once S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Tossing a coin twice S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

H=Head, T=Tail

H H HH

T HT

T H TH

T TT

Probability

assigned a probability value pi that is a number between

0 and 1. The probabilities are chosen such that their sum

over all of the outcomes in S is 1: p1 +p2 + + pn =1.

Sample Space S

Event A

Examples:

Experiment S Event

Tossing a coin {H, T} Head is obtained = {H}

Rolling a die {1,2,3,4,5,6} Number of dots is even

={2,4,6}

Rolling a coin {HH, HT, The same outcome in both

twice TH, TT} tosses ={HH, TT}

summing the probabilities of the outcomes contained in

A. Thus 0P(A) 1 and P(S)=1.

2

Conclusion: If S consists of n equally likely outcomes, an

event A consists of k outcomes in, then

k

P( A)

n

Example 2: Two fair dice are thrown, one red and one

blue. What is the probability that the red die has a score

that is strictly greater than the score on the blue die?

Solution:

that at least 1 head occurs.

Solution:

3

2.2 Algebra of Events

Venn Diagrams

S = the interior of a rectangle, outcomes in S are points

in the rectangle, events are regions inside the rectangle

A

A (complement of A) A does not occur (all outcomes

in S that are not in A)

A

A

A or B or both)

A B

4

A B - intersection of A and B (all outcomes that are in

both A and B)

A B

in common (can never occur simultaneously)

A B

5

Probability Rules

S

A

2. Addition Rule: For any two events A and B,

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)-P(A B).

A B

equality: A = (A B) U (A B) and Rule 2 for

mutually exclusive events A B and A B.

6

Interpretation (Table of probabilities):

B B

A P(A B) P(A B) P(A)

A P(A B) P(A B) P(A)

P(B) P(B) 1

to repair it. Infection occurs in 3% of such operations, the

repair fails in 14%, and both infection and failure occurs

together in 1%. What percent of the operations succeed and

are free from infection?

Solution:

following data:

Working (W) Not Working

Males (M) 80 40

Females (F) 40 40

7

Find the probabilities that a randomly selected graduate is a

working person, a male, a working male. What is the

probability that a randomly selected person is a male or

working?

Solution:

Example 6:

Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed

for scratch and shock resistance. The results from 100 disks

are summarized below:

shock resistance

high low

scratch high 70 9

resistance low 16 5

resistance, and let B denote the event that a disk has high

8

scratch resistance. If a disk is selected at random, determine

the following probabilities:

(d) P(A B) (e) P(A B)

Solution:

(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected person

works?

(b) Find the probability that the person works if the

person is a man?

Solution:

9

P(B|A) - the probability of an event B given that the event

A has occurred

B A

that of A.

definition

B given an event A is defined by

P( A B)

P( B | A)

P( A)

(b) in the above example.

Solution:

10

Conclusion: (Multiplication Rule)

event

A P(B|A) B

P(A) AB

Solution:

11

Sampling Without and With Replacement

after being sampled (each outcome depends on all

previous outcomes)

Sampling with replacement: each item is replaced after

being sampled (population is the same on each draw,

outcomes do not depend on each other).

without replacement from a shipment of 240 TV tubes of

which 15 are defective, what is the probability that

(a) both are nondefective,

(b) at least one of the two is nondefective,

Solution:

12

2.4 Independence

P(A B) = P(A) P(B).

Are events A and B independent?

Solution:

has reliability (the probability that the unit will not fail)

0.999. There is also a back-up cooling unit to substitute for

the primary unit when it fails. The reliability of the back-up

is 0.890. Find the reliability of the cooling system of the

power plant. Assume that the primary and back-up units

fail independently.

Solution:

13

Example 13: The following circuit operates if and only if

there is a path of functional devices from left to right.

Assume that devices fail independently and that the

probability that each device functions is shown on the

graph below.

0.90

0.90

0.90

Solution:

14

2.5 Counting Techniques

either a small or large engine, is available in any of three

colours: red, blue and green, and three choices of a stereo

system. In how many ways can a buyer choose a car?

Solution:

are n1 ways to perform step 1, and for each of these ways

there are n2 ways to perform step 2, and if for each choice

to perform the first two steps there are n3 ways to perform

step 3, and so on, then the total number of ways to perform

the operation in k steps is n1 * n2* *nk .

Tree Diagram:

1 1 1

2 2 2

.

.

n2 nk

n1

step 1 step 2 step k

15

Example 15: A test consists of 15 questions. Ten are true-

false questions, and five are multiple-choice questions that

have four choices each. A student must select an answer for

each question. In how many ways can this be done?

Solution:

characters.

character may be any lowercase letter or digit?

character may be any lowercase letter or digit, and at

least one character must be a digit?

Solution:

16

Factorials

is defined as

Also 0! is defined as 1.

Permutations

ordered sequence of k objects selected without

replacement from the group of n objects. The number of

possible permutations of k objects from n objects is

Pkn n (n 1) (n 2)...(n k 1)

o1 o2 o3

o2 o3 o4

on on

on

17

Remark: It is easy to verify that

n!

Pkn n (n 1) (n 2)...(n k 1) .

(n k )!

In how many different ways can they be arranged?

Solution:

Combinations

unordered collection of k objects selected without

replacement from the n objects. The number of possible

combinations of k objects from n objects is

n n!

Ckn

k (n k )!k !

18

Example 18: Five pairs of socks (each pair has a different

colour) are to be placed in 10 drawers (at most one pair in

each drawer). In how many ways can this be done?

Solution:

jackpot in 6-49 game?

Solution:

19

- Hacking 71 - Equipossibility Theories of ProbabilityUploaded byPierrot Lunar
- MATH 10 Q4.2 (Short 60 Copies)Uploaded byLove
- 3Strcutral ReliabilityUploaded byDeepak Solanki
- ProbabilityUploaded byRajalaxmi
- Week 3_1_ProbUploaded byFarhadAbbas
- 001073Uploaded byMjeda Pugu Boy Longpuffz
- Stats Case 3Uploaded bySuraj Shah
- sample_mid_chs._2-_3_Uploaded bySaied Aly Salamah
- UUni 6SSBUploaded byShilpa Shetty
- 02 ProbabilityUploaded bySaurabh Kumar
- ProbabilityUploaded byUmmar Afzal
- StatUploaded byJohn Paul Cabandon
- grade 7 7 5 l3Uploaded byapi-296039056
- StatisticsUploaded byBalthazarBartolome
- STA301_Lec17Uploaded byapi-26281458
- Chap 5 - Sec 5.3Uploaded bya_noon2017
- rockstarroadtripUploaded byapi-279165377
- CS+501+Tutorial-1Uploaded byShahrukh Kasi
- Badri MtechUploaded byAnonymous BhY9rJMlV
- Notes 12Uploaded bysavio77
- Lecture 2Uploaded byAbdul Basit Khan
- Recognition and Resolution of “Comprehension Uncertainty” in AI, by Sukanto Bhattacharya and Kuldeep KumarUploaded byAnonymous 0U9j6BLllB
- 1359-1356-1-PBUploaded byJesus Asnate Salazar
- Empirical Probability FormulaUploaded bytutorciecle123
- 3c-u4-day-4Uploaded byapi-359305320
- Week7.pdfUploaded byosmanfırat
- Statistics ModuleUploaded byRasheedahEnonce
- Probabilistic econometrics – science without foundations.pdfUploaded byLuigiScaini
- 5-26-NormalProbsUploaded byAlejandro Sanhueza
- STATISTICAL METHODSUploaded byarnodelorme

- Module 4 Session 01-StataBasicsUploaded byHector Garcia
- ISO9001-2008-QMSUploaded byInnovia
- Calculo Del Valor DUploaded byGuillermo Gutierrez
- Hardiness and Coping Strategies.pdfUploaded byadamiam
- Reston at the Tipping Point--Violent Crime & Increased Population DensityUploaded byTerryMaynard
- Miyamoto 2015Uploaded byUtsav Koshti
- Dean R. Lillard, Rebekka Christopoulou-Life-Course Smoking Behavior_ Patterns and National Context in Ten Countries-Oxford University Press (2015)Uploaded byAnam
- 22-Reg7Uploaded bymuralidharan
- How CEO Empowering Leadership Shapes Top Management TeamUploaded byThế Dân
- Employee Engagement: The Key to Realizing Competitive AdvantageUploaded byshivi_kashti
- When Person-Organization Mis Fit and DisUploaded byMahesh Jada
- Deloitte_UK Corporate Learning Factbook 2016Uploaded byElSire
- Survey on Costs and Returns of Camote Production 2014Uploaded bynameless1112
- QIR PResentation LUT Rev1Uploaded byLuthfi Ardiansyah
- IJDIWC_Volume 5, Issue 2Uploaded byIJDIWC
- 2908406 Modul 6 Analytic Hierarchy ProcessUploaded byIndah apriana Bakti
- Rock Chips Winter 2010Uploaded byAlberta Geological Survey
- 6 Principles of CialdiniiUploaded byGeorgiana Axinia
- Community Development Project ReportUploaded byKruthi Suresh
- Soalan Final Analisis Struktur UTHMUploaded byliyana2030
- Excel Responses for Exam-02Uploaded byredouane
- Dimensional Analysis PowerpointUploaded byvishnu351
- Business Case # 2Uploaded byNicole Mangibin
- Determination of Localized Stresses in the Shell Above Anchor Bolt Chairs Attachments of Anchored Storage TanksUploaded bySebastián Contreras Álvarez
- ANNALS-2009-1-15Uploaded byirina
- (2009) on the Design of Stiffeners in Steel Plate Shear WallsUploaded byraghu_thinks
- Research on apparel productsUploaded byNitin Anand
- mb0044 (1)Uploaded byAnkit Kashyap
- AMDFCalcUploaded byNiravSinghDabhi
- capitulo 1 Método geoeléctricoUploaded byJuan Francisco Cumbe Vásquez