MidLongMid- and Long-Term Roadmap for Global Warming Measures (overview) Ozawa-Draft proposal by Environment Minister

Sakihito Ozawa[Things that I want to convey in the Mid- and Long-Term Roadmap] 1) Global warming countermeasures are an urgent issue necessary to protect the the environment in Japan and the rest of the world. The roadmap proposes a path of measures and policies for reducing emissions by 25% by 2020 and by 80% by 2050. 2) Promoting environmental investments and practicing a low-carbon lifestyle (or, an eco-friendly lifestyle) will allow people to live comfortable, affluent lives—not lives based on tolerance. The efforts of each and every national citizen via Challenge 25 are needed in order to achieve mid- and long-term objectives. 3) It is important not to only focus one’s attention on environmental burdens alone, but to think of global warming countermeasures as a pillar of new growth. Investing in the construction of a low-carbon society will generate a variety of merits, including the cultivation of new markets and jobs, vitalization of communities, and ensuring energy security.
Daily Life - Spread of Zero-emission Residences and Construction [Target] 100% achievement rate of revised energy-saving standards for new buildings* Establishment of zero-emission standards that integrate structures (buildings), energy-consuming appliances and other household electronics, and energy-creating devices such as solar light. Make fulfilling energy-saving standards and zero-emission standards compulsory. Tax systems, etc., for promoting new construction and improving old structures. Making the labeling system and environment performance displays mandatory. Support for making homes zero-emission from a home/GHG consultant. Creation of a mechanism that makes housing capabilities visible and grants incentives in response to reduction amounts.

Community Development – Creating Walkable Communities [Goal] Reduce driving amount for each traveler by 10%* Formulate an “Action Plan to a Create Low-carbon Community” in all municipalities. Close proximity of residential, commercial, and business areas to the station and within the walking sphere. Extension of LRT and BRT, and expedited construction of planned routes. Development of space for sidewalks and bicycles. Support for the promotion of public transportation use. Creation of frameworks for maximizing urban waste heat. Developing low-carbon municipal districts using natural resources. Making distribution and interregional passenger travel low-carbon.

Promoting the introduction of energy-efficient trains, ships, and airplanes. Promoting the adoption of low-carbon fuel. Framework for cargo owners to select low-carbon carriers.

[Goal] 2.5 million sales of next-generation vehicles* Heavier and lighter taxation based on CO2 emission levels. Phased enhancement of gas mileage standards. Certification of E10 vehicles. Promote the introduction of hybrid and electric vehicles. Development of high-performance and next-generation batteries. Promotion of eco driving and car sharing.

NextEnergy Supply – Next-generation energy supply aimed at a low carbon society [Goal] 10% of primary energy supply to be renewable energy sources by 2020, and 100% diffusion rate of smart grid systems by 2030 A fixed price buyback system using levels that promote business investment (e.g., IRR of 8% or more), and a green certification system for heat. Cultivating companies and regions that aim to reduce business risks and initial costs and to diffuse renewable energies. Mandating usage of renewable energies and reforming social systems in response to diffusion level. Upgrading the grid and preservation systems to bear large volumes of renewable energy, installation of the smart grid. Making thermal power generation low-carbon using fuel conversion and highly efficient thermal power generation technologies, expanding the use of nuclear power generation based on the main premise of ensuring safety.

LowCore Social Systems for Creating a Low-Carbon Society
*Goals without any particular specified year all point to a mid-term goal for 2020.

・A Cap and Trade domestic emission trading scheme and global warming tax. 1

・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・

Daily Life - Environmentally Friendly Car Market -

[Goal] Reduce energy usage by 30-40% by 2050. Creation of markets that reward emission-cutting companies. Creating an environment that supports companies financially. Promoting information disclosure through financial reports. A public system for calculated reports that evaluates lifecycle emission amounts. Support for efforts via a GHG consultant system for SMEs. Support for the development of innovative technologies. Training the workforce that will oversee low-carbon manufacturing. Implementation of fluorocarbon-free society (control of three fluorinated greenhouse gases, etc.)

・ ・ ・

Daily Life - Making Rail, Marine, and Air Low-carbon -

・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・

・ ・ ・ ・ ・

・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・

・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・

Community Development - Realizing Zero Carbon in Rural Communities Plan and achieve a “zero-carbon plan” in every community. Promote the use of lumber in buildings, and the use of biomass, as well as the use of forest and farmland etc. as sinks. Expand the application of local energy business models nationwide.

・ ・ ・

Creative Manufacturing - Worldwide Expansion of Japanese LowCarbon Manufacturing -

A Look at Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector in 2020 and 2050 (unit: million tons of CO2)
±
Daily Life / Community Development Energy Conversion 0% at 1990

1990 2005 2007 2008
(preliminary estimates)

Creative manufacturing

Home

Industrial

Transport

Non-energy

482 456 468 420 374~
(-11%)*3

127 174 180 172

164 237 242 232

217

68 257 246

202 79 83 78 148 155 152

236

2020
(converted to macro*1)

90~ 133~ 153~ 42~ 154~
(-48%) (-43%) (-35%) (-46%) (+4%)

-25%

(fixed macro*2)

8%

2050

252

Image of How to Cut Emissions by 25% by 2020 on 1990 levels (implementation levels for major countermeasures)
Major Countermeasures [Housing] (residential sector)

<Housing capabilities> New housing

Existing housing

<Installation of Photovoltaic power> Photovoltaic power generation (home)

2005: 1.14 million kW (260,000 households) 2020: Max. 24.4 million kW (10 million households) Approx. 21-fold increase

Solar water heaters

Latent heat recovery water heaters

<Installation of water heaters> Electric heat pump water heaters

) ) ) ※)

▲( ▲( ▲( ▲(

2020

385~
3

81~ 120~ 158~ 41~ 158~
(-53%) (-48%) (-33%) (-47%) (+7%)
(Possibly includes international contributions and sinks)

-80%
*1: “Case of all sectors converted to macro frameworks” based on the pricing of carbon. *2: “Case of the industrial sector fixed to macro frameworks” *3: Ratio of emissions cut to 2008.

Image in 2020
2005: 500,000 (1/100 households) 2020: Max. of 16.4 million (1/3 households) Approx. 33-fold increase 2005: 200,000 (1/500 households) 2020: Max. of 25.2 million (1/2 households) Approx. 126-fold increase 2005: 3.5 million (1/14 households) 2020: Max. 10 million (1/5 households) Approx. 3-fold increase

Added investment

Daily Life

~¥38.8 trillion

2005: 30% achievement rate of next-generation standards for new housing 2020: 100% achievement rate of standards ranking higher than nextgeneration standards for new housing 2005: About 4% achievement rate of next-generation standards for existing housing 2020: About 30% achievement rate of standards ranking higher than next-generation standards for existing housing

2

Image of How to Cut Emissions by 25% by 2020on 1990 levels (implementation levels for major countermeasures) ~continued~
Major Countermeasures [Buildings] (Industrial Sector) <Air conditioning efficiency> Air conditioning efficiency

Image in 2020
2005: COP2~4 2020: COP3~5

Added investment

<Building capabilities> Newly constructed buildings

2005: 56% achievement rate of 1999 standards for new buildings 2020: 100% achievement rate of standards ranking above 1999 standards for new buildings 2005: 6% achievement rate of 2009 standards for existing buildings 2020: 68% achievement rate of standards ranking above 1999 standards for existing buildings

Existing buildings

[Rail, Automobile, Ship] (Transport Sector)
[Community Development] (Transport Sector, Domestic/Industria l Sectors) [Community Development (Agriculture)] (Transport Sector, Domestic/Industrial Sectors)

Rate of decline in rail specific energy consumption: Rate of decline in ship specific energy consumption: Rate of decline in airplane specific energy consumption:

Automobile driving distance Amount of unused heat Forest management activities (sinks) Logged wood (sinks) Steel, chemicals, ceramics, soil and stone, paper, pulp, etc.
<Renewable Energy> Solar power generation (nonhousehold) Wind power generation Geothermal power generation Small- to mid-sized hydroelectric power generation (30,000 kW or less) <Carbon Capture Storage (CCS)> CCS <Nuclear Power Generation> Nuclear power generation

[Manufacturing] (Industrial Sector)

Additional investments for the ten-year period between 2011-2020 will amount to a maximum of ¥100 trillion. Depending on the energy cost saved, overall it is possible to recover half of all investments by 2020 or all of investments by 2030.

→ → →

[Energy Supply] (Energy Conversion Sector)

[Automobile] (Transport Sector)

Diffusion of environmentally friendly cars

→ → → →
Daily Life
Manufacturing

~¥11.1 trillion

2005: Approximately 60,000 in new car sales of nextgeneration automobiles 2020: Approximately 2.5 million cars
2020: 10% (compared to 2005) 2020: 20% (compared to 2005) 2020: 24% (compared to 2005)

~¥8.3 trillion

10% reduction in automobile driving distances by doubling the share of public transportation Amount of unused heat: 1.0 million tons of CO2 About 550,000 hectares trimmed yearly Promote use of Japanese wood

In regards to developing public transportation, thinning forests, and community development, additional investments will be necessary. However, these have not been included in these figures.

Through construction carried out when upgrading to nextgeneration coke ovens, the world’s latest technologies will be introduced when upgrading for all areas, such as by increasing the number of ovens from one to six by 2020.

~¥2.9 trillion

2005: 300MW 2020: Maximum 25,600 NW Approx. 85-fold increase 2005: 1,090 MW 2020: Maximum 11,310 MW Approx. 10-fold increase 2005: 530 MW 2020: Maximum 1,710 MW (including thermal water power generation) Approximately 3-fold increase 2005: 400 kW 2020: Maximum 6,000 MW Approx. 15-fold increase 2020: Capture amount Maximum 4.4 million tons of CO2

Energy Supply

~¥36.9 trillion

Current: 54 plants with an operation rate of 60% in FY2008. 2020: Maximum of 62 plants (expansion of 8 plants), maximum operation rate of 88%. *Including nonenergy sectors

Total* ~¥99.8 trillion 3

Image of a Low-Carbon Daily Life
lowDespite initial costs, employing various low-carbon investments in daily life utility will allow for those costs to be recovered through saving on utility costs and selling electricity. Also, it is possible to lead a comfortable and healthy Lowinvestment.” lifestyle. Low-carbon living should be considered an “investment.” People Building New Houses
A new super-insulated house with solar panel and superadditional energy saving appliances and water heaters

People Living Alone
Purchase energy-efficient home energyappliances and high-efficiency lighting higheven for rented apartments

Add. investment

Subsidy/Tax cut, etc.

Investment recovered

Solar power generation

¥1.4 million

3

Fixed-price buying

¥140,000/year

Housing eco-points Super-insulation ¥1 million ¥300,000 ¥20,000/year Home electronics eco-points Energy-saving refrigerator ¥50,000/year ¥20,000 (¥9,000) ¥10,000/year

Energy-saving home electronics, ¥130,000 etc.

Home electronics eco-points ¥30,000/year ¥20,000 Total ¥240,000/year ¥320,000 (¥2.43 million) *
2

¥58,000

¥16,000 Recovered in about 3-4 years

¥2.93 million Total

Recovered in about 9-10 years

Subsidy amounts in parentheses indicate the current effective system when making purchases. The number of years required for recovery depends on the existence of subsidy systems indicated with parentheses. *1: Electric heat pump hot water heaters are envisioned as highly-efficient hot water heaters. *2: As super-insulation also provides a comfortable and healthy living space, half of those funds are indicated here as an indication of warming countermeasure investments. The number of years needed for investment recovery is estimated based on this figure. *3: The price of solar power generation uses prices envisioned for several years later (¥1.4 million).

Subsidy amounts in parentheses indicate the current effective system when making purchases. The number of years required for recovery depends on the existence of subsidy systems indicated with parentheses.

When Changing Cars
Purchase Hybrid Vehicles

Solar Panel

Super-Insulation Double Glass Energy-saving navigation High-efficiency hot water heater High-efficiency lighting High-efficiency appliances

purchase Subsidy amounts in parentheses indicate the current effective system when making purchases. The number of years required for recovery depends on the existence of subsidy systems indicated with parentheses.

. n e vi r d n e h w s n o i s si m e o r e z d n a e si o n e l tti l e c u d o r p t a ht s r a c s a n o i t n ett a d e s a e r c n i g n i r e n r a g o sl a e r a selcihev cirtcele ,selcihev dirbyh ot noitidda nI .llew saw smetsys ydisbus dna noitcuder - x a t o sl a w o n e r a e r e h t s a s y u b t a e r g e r a e s e h T . e vi s n e p x e s s e l e m o c e b ylt n e c e r e v a h d n a e g a e l i m b r e p u s t s a o b s el ci h e v d i r b y H

Add. investment

Subsidy/Tax cut, etc. recovered Eco-car tax reduction

Hybrid Cars

¥200,000 Subsidy (¥260,000)

Eco-car tax reduction Total ¥200,000 Subsidy (¥260,000) two years after

High-efficiency water heaters*1

¥400,000

High-efficiency lighting

. s e it il i b a p a c g n i v a s - y g r e n e h ti w e s u o h w e n a o t n o it a r e d i s n o c y a p o t t e g r of t o n o d g n i v o m n e h w , o s l A ? g n it h g i l d n a s ci n o rt c el e s cudorp ne c e s cudorp ne c e emoh gnicalper nehw sttttcudorrp ttttneiiiiciiiiffffffffe s cudo p ne c e -repus -repus -repus gnitceles tuoba woH .slenap rewop ralos -repus e c a l p r o n o it a l u s n i r i e ht e d a r g p u ot st n e mtr a p a g n it n e r e l p o e p r of t l u ci ffi d yl g n i d n at s r e d n u si tI
Add. investment Subsidy/Tax cut, etc. Investment recovered Energy-saving air ¥15,000 conditioning (¥7,000) Home electronics eco-points ¥3,000/year ¥23,000 ¥3,000/year ¥16,000/year Investment ¥80,000/year Recovered in up to

. sr a e y n et n i hti w st s o c yti l it u ni s g n i v a s h g u o r h t d e r e v o c e r e b ll i w si ht , r e v e w o h , n o i l li m 3 ~ 1 ¥ n e e w t e b t s o c yl e vi t a l u m u c l l i w si h T no ag van gn vas-ygrene no ag van gn vas yg ene .emoh ta snoissime 2OC rotinom ot noiiitttagiiivan gniiivas--ygrrene esu ,esu lufetsaw diova ot redro nI .tneiciffe ygrene ylhgih secna ppa c r ce e dna sre aeh eb dluohs emoh ta desu secnaiiiillllppa ciiiirrttttcelllle dna srrettttaeh secna ppa c r ce e dna sre aeh secna ppa c ce e dna s e aeh retaw toH retaw toH noitareneg noitareneg retaw toH .elbissop erehw desu eb dluohs noitareneg retaw toH noitareneg rewop raloS .tnemnorivne gnivil yhtlaeh dna elbatrofmoc a g ni t a e r c , n o i t a s n e d n o c d n a s m o o r n e e wt e b e r u t a r e p m et de a usn -repus ni secnereffid seveiler dettttallllusniiii--rrepus esuoh a gnikaM de a usn -repus de a usn epus

4

Economic Effects Engendered by Implementation of the Roadmap
There is not question that countermeasures to create between 25% and 80% reductions will require certain costs. However, that is everyone’s responsibility to future generations, and should be considered an investment in creating a future of low-carbon societies. Investments provide commensurate attainable economic effects.

[Model analysis results (1)] Low-carbon investments create innovation Active low-carbon investments into such fields as renewable energy create innovation and have positive macroeconomic effects.
1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 0.20
2005

GDP
Employment
If countermeasures are not enhanced 2020

Compared to not enhancing countermeasures, GDP and employment will both grow by nearly 0.4% by 2020.
*These estimates were made envisioning that warming countermeasure regulations become increasingly stricter from 2005 and that people employ such countermeasures during the early stages.
Source: Estimates made by Prof. Ban Kanemi, Graduate School, Osaka University

[Model analysis results (2)] Innovation reduces the price of goods and utilities
If innovation serves to decrease the price of goods, such as home electronics and photovoltaic power generation, energy-conservation will advance and utility costs will also decrease, allowing for more income to be utilized in other areas.
(Effects of promoting R&D/commercialization of corporate energy-saving/energy-producing devices.)
Equivalent Conversion (ten thousand yen)

Compared to not enhancing countermeasures, income will increase by 2020 for all income brackets.
If countermeasures are not enhanced Income Bracket
Source: Estimates made by Ryuji Matsuhashi, Graduate School, Tokyo University.

[Model analysis results (3)] Awaking new demand and industries Expanding new demand, such as for energy-saving housing and next-generation cars, will cause various industries to become active in aims to respond to these developments. (Ripple effects of investments into warming countermeasures)
Community vitalization

Rich living space

Energy security

Stronger international competition

Generates various benefits (quantitative evaluation not possible)
Superinsulation housing Nextgeneration cars
High-efficiency hot water heaters

Photovoltaic power generation

Wind power generation

Impacts various industries (quantitative evaluation possible) Material industry Machine industry (electric machines, (steel, chemicals, transport machines, glass, etc.) etc.)

Services Commerce
(Education, research, etc.)

Demand evoked for ¥45 trillion/1.25 million people by 2020 (equivalent to approximately 90% of the ¥50 trillion/1.4 million people forecasted in the new growth strategy basic policy). Considering the spread to related industries as well, this will produce a ¥188 trillion market and 3.45 million jobs.
*Creating a new market may in fact cause traditional industries to shrink somewhat; however, this model does not evaluate the effects of that decrease.

Source: Estimates made by Kiyoshi Fujikawa, Graduate School, Nagoya University, and Mitsuru Shimoda, Applied Research Institute.

*This type of economic model possesses various challenges and constraints. In addition, further benefits can be anticipated if the secondary effects—avoiding damage in the event that warming countermeasures are not implemented, realizing comfortable living, etc.—are evaluated as well.

ni dael gnikat fo stceffE(

).serusaemretnuoc gnimraw gnitnemelpmi

5

[Model analysis results (4)] Based on the current economic and employment circumstances, government spending will create demand
According to a mechanical model analysis based on the current economic situation, where there exists a supply-demand gap*1, in the event that a carbon tax *2 is introduced and appropriated for government expenditures, compared with the alternative situation, the increase in domestic demand will cause the GDP to remain the same or increase and the unemployment rate to remain the same or decrease.
(Analysis reflecting the current economic and employment situation.)

Real GDP

Better

*1: This model uses a trial calculation based on the premise that the supply-demand gap will continue to exist until 2020. *2: The situation of non carbon tax related revenues is assumed to remain the same as present.

GDP boost
If countermeasures are not enhanced

Compared to not enhancing countermeasures, it is possible for the GDP to improve by up to 0.7% by 2020, and unemployment by around up to 0.1 points.
Source: Estimates by the Japan Center for Economic Research.

Worse

Message from the Minister: A message to all citizens ~ Support for Challenge 25 ~
Japan has pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2020, and by 80% by 2050, compared with levels in 1990. These figures are the standards demanded by science in order to resolve the current threat of global warming and ensure the continuation of our beautiful planet. This is also our responsibility to future generations as members of society. Japan emerged from the ruins of WWII using human resources and technology to overcome disadvantageous conditions marked by a lack of fossil resources and to double its income levels. Japan also overcame the oil shocks to create the affluent nation that we all enjoy today. The new challenge that we face in the 21st century—to lead the rest of the world in constructing a low-carbon society and to significantly cut greenhouse gasses—provides us an opportunity to utilize those strengths to achieve economic growth. Indeed, this challenge will be the very pillar of Japan’s contributions to the international community. At the same time, however, I am sure that there are some citizens that question our capacity to achieve these goals and those citizens that worry about their future lifestyles. This proposal presents a bright future and the path to get there by providing countermeasures that, when employed, offer a positive answer to the aforementioned questions and concerns. I personally wrote this proposal to show a way that people can come together, and to propose that changes made to daily living, the role of the community, and creative manufacturing are all investments in our future that will make the economy healthier. Each and every national citizen is a central player in countermeasures to fight global warming, and thus each and every citizen must take action. I ask that people take the time to discuss this issue at home, work, school, or in the community using this proposal as reference. Also, I would greatly appreciate hearing the positive wisdom and opinions of everyone on creative ways to reduce levels, innovative techniques, or proposals for change. I look forward to working together with everyone side by side in addressing the problem of global warming. I also would like to thank all citizens for their cooperation and declare that I will be working hard along with you. 31 March 2010 Sakihito Ozawa, Minister of the Environment

6

Master your semester with Scribd & The New York Times

Special offer for students: Only $4.99/month.

Master your semester with Scribd & The New York Times

Cancel anytime.