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Growth and Obsolescence of

Literature in the field of Agricultural


Biotechnology
Svetal H. Shukla
Assistant Librarian
Institute of Science, Nirma University

Lalitha Poluru, Phd., Dy. Librarian,


PG Campus, National Institute of Design,
Gandhinagar

International Conference on Changing Landscape of Science & Technology Libraries(CLSTL 2017)


Growth, Half life & Obsolescence

Growth : increase in the utility


Half life : half the active life
understood as meaning the time during which one-half of the
currently active literature was published.
Obsolescence: decline in its use
In Burrells (1985) words, obsolescence means acceptance of
any given body of library material suffers a general decline in usage
with the passage of time.
Reasons for Obsolescence occurrence and
How it helps in Library
Obsolescence may occur due to the information is valid, but (Line5-6) :
incorporated in later work;
superseded by later work
is in a field of declining interest
is no longer valid.

To know validity or Utility of information for decision of


Use of literature
When to discard older materials
How long to keep new materials
Approaches to measuring obsolescence

Synchronous Distribution - age distribution of a articles


references or citations at one point of time (in a particular year)
and compare the uses over the time.
- Age of cited references are counted backwards.

Diachronous Distribution - is the time distribution of citations a


paper received also called life cycle
Research Sample & Methodology

Research publications in Emerging Technologies and Management of


Crop Stress Tolerance Vol. 1 for the period of 2011-15
No. of articles 21
No. of References covered 3064
Used Brookes Formula(2) to calculate Annual Aging Factor(AAF) and
Utility Factor (UF) with logarithmic graphs
Age Distribution of citation
Cumulative
Year Age(x) Citation[f(x)] Citation xf(x) x2f(x) % Cumulative % Tail (t) Observed Cumulative %
2015 0 3 3 0 0 0.097911 0.097911227 3064 0.000979112
2014 1 6 9 6 6 0.195822 0.293733681 3061 0.002937337
2013 2 202 211 404 808 6.592689 6.886422977 3055 0.06886423
2012 3 225 436 675 2025 7.343342 14.22976501 2853 0.14229765
2011 4 209 645 836 3344 6.821149 21.05091384 2628 0.210509138
2010 5 203 848 1015 5075 6.625326 27.67624021 2419 0.276762402
2009 6 194 1042 1164 6984 6.331593 34.0078329 2216 0.340078329
2008 7 208 1250 1456 10192 6.788512 40.79634465 2022 0.407963446
2007 8 206 1456 1648 13184 6.723238 47.51958225 1814 0.475195822
2006 9 190 1646 1710 15390 6.201044 53.72062663 1608 0.537206266
2005 10 179 1825 1790 17900 5.842037 59.56266319 1418 0.595626632
2004 11 163 1988 1793 19723 5.319843 64.88250653 1239 0.648825065
2003 12 126 2114 1512 18144 4.112272 68.99477807 1076 0.689947781
2002 13 108 2222 1404 18252 3.524804 72.51958225 950 0.725195822
2001 14 106 2328 1484 20776 3.45953 75.97911227 842 0.759791123
2000 15 91 2419 1365 20475 2.969974 78.94908616 736 0.789490862
1999 16 65 2484 1040 16640 2.12141 81.07049608 645 0.810704961
1998 17 55 2539 935 15895 1.795039 82.86553525 580 0.828655352
1997 18 52 2591 936 16848 1.697128 84.56266319 525 0.845626632
1996 19 68 2659 1292 24548 2.219321 86.78198433 473 0.867819843
1995 20 48 2707 960 19200 1.56658 88.34856397 405 0.88348564
Citation Cumulative
Year Age(x) [f(x)] Citation xf(x) x2f(x) % Cumulative % Tail (t) Observed Cumulative %
1994 21 41 2748 861 18081 1.33812 89.68668407 357 0.896866841
1993 22 32 2780 704 15488 1.044386 90.7310705 316 0.907310705
1992 23 32 2812 736 16928 1.044386 91.77545692 284 0.917754569
1991 24 26 2838 624 14976 0.848564 92.62402089 252 0.926240209
1990 25 26 2864 650 16250 0.848564 93.47258486 226 0.934725849
1989 26 17 2881 442 11492 0.55483 94.02741514 200 0.940274151
1988 27 21 2902 567 15309 0.685379 94.71279373 183 0.947127937
1987 28 12 2914 336 9408 0.391645 95.10443864 162 0.951044386
1986 29 19 2933 551 15979 0.620104 95.72454308 150 0.957245431
1985 30 16 2949 480 14400 0.522193 96.24673629 131 0.962467363
1984 31 11 2960 341 10571 0.359008 96.60574413 115 0.966057441
1983 32 13 2973 416 13312 0.424282 97.03002611 104 0.970300261
1982 33 5 2978 165 5445 0.163185 97.19321149 91 0.971932115
1981 34 7 2985 238 8092 0.22846 97.42167102 86 0.97421671
1980 35 9 2994 315 11025 0.293734 97.7154047 79 0.977154047
1979 36 5 2999 180 6480 0.163185 97.87859008 70 0.978785901
1978 37 8 3007 296 10952 0.261097 98.13968668 65 0.981396867
1977 38 11 3018 418 15884 0.359008 98.49869452 57 0.984986945
1976 39 5 3023 195 7605 0.163185 98.6618799 46 0.986618799
1975 40 3 3026 120 4800 0.097911 98.75979112 41 0.987597911
Citation Cumulative
Year Age(x) [f(x)] Citation xf(x) x2f(x) % Cumulative % Tail (t) Observed Cumulative %
1974 41 0 3026 0 0 0 98.75979112 38 0.987597911
1973 42 5 3031 210 8820 0.163185 98.9229765 38 0.989229765
1972 43 1 3032 43 1849 0.032637 98.95561358 33 0.989556136
1971 44 2 3034 88 3872 0.065274 99.02088773 32 0.990208877
1970 45 1 3035 45 2025 0.032637 99.0535248 30 0.990535248
1969 46 2 3037 92 4232 0.065274 99.11879896 29 0.99118799
1968 47 4 3041 188 8836 0.130548 99.24934726 27 0.992493473
1967 48 4 3045 192 9216 0.130548 99.37989556 23 0.993798956
1966 49 1 3046 49 2401 0.032637 99.41253264 19 0.994125326
1965 50 4 3050 200 10000 0.130548 99.54308094 18 0.995430809
1964 51 1 3051 51 2601 0.032637 99.57571802 14 0.99575718
1963 52 0 3051 0 0 0 99.57571802 13 0.99575718
1962 53 2 3053 106 5618 0.065274 99.64099217 13 0.996409922
1961 54 2 3055 108 5832 0.065274 99.70626632 11 0.997062663
1960 55 0 3055 0 0 0 99.70626632 9 0.997062663
1959 56 0 3055 0 0 0 99.70626632 9 0.997062663
1958 57 1 3056 57 3249 0.032637 99.73890339 9 0.997389034
1957 58 0 3056 0 0 0 99.73890339 8 0.997389034
1956 59 0 3056 0 0 0 99.73890339 8 0.997389034
1955 60 0 3056 0 0 0 99.73890339 8 0.997389034
Citatio Cumulative
Year Age(x) n[f(x)] Citation xf(x) x2f(x) % Cumulative % Tail (t) Observed Cumulative %
1954 61 0 3056 0 0 0 99.73890339 8 0.997389034
1953 62 1 3057 62 3844 0.032637 99.77154047 8 0.997715405
1952 63 0 3057 0 0 0 99.77154047 7 0.997715405
1951 64 0 3057 0 0 0 99.77154047 7 0.997715405
1950 65 1 3058 65 4225 0.032637 99.80417755 7 0.998041775
1949 &
above 66 3 3061 198 13068 0.097911 99.90208877 6 0.999020888
1948 67 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1947 68 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1946 69 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1945 70 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1944 71 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1943 72 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1942 73 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1941 74 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1940 75 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1939 76 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1938 77 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1937 78 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1936 79 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1935 80 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
Citation[f( Cumulative
Year Age(x) x)] Citation xf(x) x2f(x) % Cumulative % Tail (t) Observed Cumulative %
1934 81 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1933 82 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1932 83 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1931 84 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1930 85 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1929 86 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1928 87 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1927 88 0 3061 0 0 0 99.90208877 3 0.999020888
1926 89 1 3062 89 7921 0.032637 99.93472585 3 0.999347258
1925 90 0 3062 0 0 0 99.93472585 2 0.999347258
1924 91 0 3062 0 0 0 99.93472585 2 0.999347258
1923 92 0 3062 0 0 0 99.93472585 2 0.999347258
1922 93 0 3062 0 0 0 99.93472585 2 0.999347258
1921 94 0 3062 0 0 0 99.93472585 2 0.999347258
1920 95 1 3063 95 9025 0.032637 99.96736292 2 0.999673629

1919 &
above 96 1 3064 96 9216 0.032637 100 1 1
3064 34094 623736
Mean and Variable

34094
Mean= = = 11.127
3064

2 623736
= 2 = = 82.5691906
3064

= 9
Age distribution Age Distribution of Citation
of citation with 3500
cumulative
citation where 3000
series 1 is 2500
citations for each Series
year and series -2 2000 1
is cumulative 1500 Series
citation 2
1000
It shows that
more number of 500
citation are
0
distributed (79%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
in last 15 years.
Brookes Procedure were Annual Aging Factor
used to find AAF
9500 0.96 0.945 0.93
AAF = a
0.95

Cummulative Citation from tail


0.91 0.895
8500 0.878 0.86
0.845 0.83 0.815
0.85
On Y axis potted 7500 0.75
cumulative citation from
tail and on X axis citation 6500 0.65

age from t = 0 to t = 9 5500 0.55

parallel imaginary line 4500 0.45

drawn for convenience to 3500


3064 3061 3055 2853
0.35

get values 2500 2628 2419


2216 2022
0.25
1814 1608
Values of a at different 1500 0.15

level plotted between 500 0.05

.05 to .95 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

At t =1 value is Age (Year)


approximately 0.96 and
at t=3 a is 0.91 and so
on Semi logarithmic graphs of T ( t ) and of a' (log scale) against t
(linear scale) for citation data of 9 years
t =1 = a =0.95 t =3 = a3 =0.91

Applying log values at both log a3 = log 0.91


sides
log a = log 0.95 3 log a = -0.04096

1 log a = -0.02228 Log a = -0.014

a = 0.978 a = 0.986
t =6 = a6 =0.86 t =9 = a9 =0.82

log a6 = log 0.86 log a9 = log 0.82

6 log a = -0.0655 9 log a = -0.08619

Log a = -0.011 Log a = -0.010

a = 0.989 a = 0.990
Average value of a = 0.986 Value of a calculated on T(t)=at
The Utility Factor (UF)
1
U==
1
1
= 71.42
10.986

Half life compounded its obsolescence and growth rate so half life is 14.5
years (drawn from figure 1)

Hence,
Mean life is 11.127
AAF = is 0.986
UF 71.42
Findings
As age increased use of literature found to be decreased.
79% of citations from last 15 years showed that current literature has
been cited more when compared to older literature.
Average Annual Aging Factor (AAF=a) found 0.986, half life 14.5 years
and utility factor found 71.42
Few aspects that need to be considered

Latest research has been benefited with easy availability and open
access approach
Research resulted in principle values or core findings are high in
citation and not affected with age
References
1. Biradar and Kumar (2003), Chemical Technology Literature: An obsolescence
Study, Annals of Library and Information Studies, 50 (4), 156-162.
2. Brookes B.C. (1970). Obsolescence of special library periodicals. J. Am. Sot.
Info. Sci. 21(5) 320-329.
3. Burton R.E. and Kebler R.W. (1960). The 'half- lives' of some science and
technology literatures. Amer. Documentation 11 18-22.
4. Coughlin (1988), Stochastic Models of Information obsolescence, Mathematical
Computer Modelling, 11, 760 765
5. Line M.B.(1993), Changes in the use of literature with time, Library Trends, 41,
665-683.
6. Line and Sandison (1974), "Obsolescence" and changes in the use of literature
with time, Journal of Documentation, 30,283-349.
7. Line M.B. (1970), The 'half-life' of periodical literature: apparent and real
obsolescence. J. of Documentation 26, 46-54.
8. Sangam and Mogali (2013), Obsolescence of Literature in the Field of Social
Sciences, PEARL - A Journal of Library and Information Science, 7 (3), 162-168