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5/26/2017 DataFirmsWeighInOnSouthKoreanPresidentialRaceDuringPollingBlackout

MAY8,2017

DataFirmsWeighInOnSouthKoreanPresidentialRace
DuringPollingBlackout
BYBRENTM.EASTWOOD

Electionpostersforthe2017SouthKoreapresidentialelection.Credit:Kaisermatias,WikimediaCommons

Thisblogpostispartofaseriesanalyzingthenewestformsofdataforecasting.

TheSouthKoreanpresidentialelectionscheduledfortomorrowhasbeenfraughtwithanxietyasvotersremaindividedover
thedirectionofthecountryspoliticalfuture.Theaftermathofapresidentialimpeachmenthasplacedheightenedscrutiny
overthepresidentialrace.NorthKoreahasaddedtotheapprehensionasitcontinuestorattletheelectorateinitsquestto
mateballisticmissileswithnuclearwarheads.

Predata,aNewYorkgeopoliticalriskfirm,conductselectionpredictionsusingdigitalmomentumitgleansfromcandidate
Wikipediasearches,Twitteruse,andYouTubecomments.PredatapreviouslyissuedguidanceontheSouthKoreanelection
onMay5,May4,andMay1.

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5/26/2017 DataFirmsWeighInOnSouthKoreanPresidentialRaceDuringPollingBlackout

SoftwaretitanAhnCheolsooisdominatingthedigitaldiscussion,accordingtoPredataonMay5.Ahnloggedan85
percentmeasureofonlineinfluenceandsupport.PollingfrontrunnerMoonJaeintalliedanestimated37percentscorein
digitalmomentum,whileconservativefirebrandHongJoonpyotrailedinonlineengagement.PredatabelievesthatAhns
expertiseintechnologyhasgivenhiscampaignanadvantageinsocialmediacommunication.

PredataalsonotedthattheSouthKoreanelectoratewasmoreconcernedabouteconomicsecurity:ifeconomicreformis
themainconcern,Moonagainstandstobenefit.Hehasproposedanearly$9billionfiscalstimulustospurjobgrowthand
smallbusinesscreation.

OnMay4,PredatafocuseditsanalysisonnationalsecurityconcernsaftertheinstallationofanAmericanmissiledefense
system,knownasTHAAD.Predataspredictiveanalyticsallowsittoexaminespecificissuessuchasmissiledefenseand
howvarioushotbuttontopicsaffectthedigitaldiscussion.

PredatafoundthatMoongainedthemostfromtheTHAADcontroversy:angerovertheTHAADmostbenefitspresidential
racefrontrunnerMoonJaeinoftheleftleaningDemocraticParty.Theleasthawkishcandidate,hehaspledgedtosuspend
thesystemsdeploymentpendingacomprehensivereviewandpossiblerenegotiationwiththeUnitedStates.

OnMay1,PredatadeterminedthattheelectionwasatwomanracebetweenMoonandAhn.Ahnscoredover75percentin
thedigitalcampaignandMoonhaddippedtojustover25percent.

GovBrainusesapatentpendingTrendMeterinsideitsmachinelearningandartificialintelligencesystem.GovBrain
analyzesdigitaltrendsfromnearlyonethousandgovernment,regulatory,andlegislativesourcesalongwithpolitical,
financial,andtechnologynewssitesfromaroundtheworld.

AccordingtoGovBrainstrendmeter,MoonJaeiniscomfortablyahead.Moonhasfinishedstrongsinceearlyvotingbegan
onMay4.Hishighestgrowthrateswereovertheweekend,withaprominentupwardspikeonSaturday,May6.Moonstrend
metergrowthhascooledoffinthelasttwentyfourhours,butheremainsthefrontrunnerbyalargemargininthewinnertake
allroundofvotingtomorrow.

Thebattleforsecondplaceisextremelyclose.AhnCheolsoohasatinyedgeoverHongJoonpyo.Honghasbeen
surprisinglyresilientoverthelastfourtyeighthours,accordingtoGovBrain.ItappearedthatAhnhadmoremomentumon
Sunday,butHongclawedhiswaybacktoday.

Twoothercandidates,YooSeungminandSimSangjung,roundoutthefield.Yoo,aconservativeeconomist,hashad
difficultysinceearlyvotingstarted.Observersgivehimcreditforskillfullyarticulatinghisbrandofconservatism,buthehas
struggledtobreakthrough.Sim,aprogressive,hasperformedwelloverthelasttwentyfourhoursandthetrendmeterhas
herfinishinginfourth.BothcandidatesarerelativelyyoungandtheyshouldhaveabrightfutureinSouthKoreanpolitics.

Thisisachangeelectionandanelectionaboutideologicalrealignment,GovBrainexplained.

Thepoliticalpendulumhasswungtotheleftasconservativecandidatesareunabletoremovethestigmaofimpeached
presidentParkGeunhye.Thisisverysimilartothe1976electionofJimmyCarterintheUnitedStatesinwhichGeraldFord
andtheRepublicanswerenegativelyassociatedwithRichardNixonandWatergate.MoonJaein,likeCarter,isseenasa
refreshingchange,accordingtoananalysisbyGovBrain.

PriortothepollingblackoutonMay2,mostsurveyshadMoonwithacommandinglead.Theliberalleftcandidateclaimed
40.6percentofsupportersintheEmbrainpoll.FourothershadMoonbetween36percentand40percentsupport.Opinion
pollinghadtheraceforsecondplacemuchcloser.AhnandHonghaveregisteredsupportbetween16percentand20

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5/26/2017 DataFirmsWeighInOnSouthKoreanPresidentialRaceDuringPollingBlackout

percent.PollsfromEmbrainandKantarhadthecontestforsecondplacebetweenoneandtwopoints.SimSangjungand
YooSeongminarefarbehindinsingledigits,accordingtopollsconductedbeforetheblackoutperiod.

UnlikeintherecentFrenchpresidentialelection,therewillbenosecondroundrunoff.SouthKoreasNationalElection
CommissionexpectstodeclarethewinneronWednesdaymorning.Thewinnerwillbeimmediatelysworninasthenext
president.

Otherblogsinthisseries:
IMFandWorldBankinNeedofMoreModernForecastingMethods
ThePredictionGame:DataScienceFirmsvs.PollstersonSundaysFrenchPresidentialElection

BrentM.Eastwood,PhDistheFounderandCEOofGovBrainIncthatpredictsworldeventsusingmachinelearning,
artificialintelligence,naturallanguageprocessing,anddatascience.Heisaformermilitaryofficerandawardwinning
economicforecaster.Brenthasfoundedandledcompaniesinsectorssuchasbiometricsandimmersivevideo.Heisalsoa
ProfessorialLectureratTheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs.
StrategicForesightInitiative
SouthKorea
StrategyInitiative

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