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Exercise 3-1-1

Solution:

1

The return period (in years) is defined by = where p is the probability of flooding per year. Therefore,

p

the design periods of A and B being A = 5 and B = 10 years mean that the respective yearly flood probabilities

are

P(A) = 1/ (5 years) = 0.2 (probability per year)

P(B) = 1/(10 years) = 0.1 (probability per year)

= P(AB)

= P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)

= P(A) + P(B) - P(A)P(B) (A and B s.i.)

1 1 1

= (i)

A B A B

= 0.2 + 0.1 - 0.20.1

= 0.28

(b) Let X be the total number of flooded years among the next half decade. X is a binomial random variable with

parameters n = 5 and p = 0.28.

Hence

P(X 2) = 1 - P(X < 2)

= 1 - f(0) - f(1)

= 1 - (1 - 0.28)5 - 5(0.28)(1 - 0.28)4

0.43

(c) Let A and B be the improved return periods for levees A and B, respectively. Using (i) from part (a), we

construct the following table:

Yearly flooding

New A New B probability Total cost

(and cost) (and cost) 1 1 1 (in million dollars)

=

A B A B

10 ($5M) 20 ($10M) 0.145 5 + 10 = 15

10 ($5M) 30 ($20M) 0.130 5 + 20 = 25

20 ($20M) 20 ($10M) 0.0975 20 + 10 = 30

20 ($20M) 30 ($20M) 0.0817 20 + 20 = 40

Since the goal is to reduce the yearly flooding probability to at most 0.15, all these options will work but the

top one is least expensive. Hence the optimal course of action is to change the return periods of A and B

to 10 and 20 years, respectively.

Exercise 3-1-3

Solution:

Given: = mean flaw rate = 1 (flaw) / 50m2;

t = area of a panel = 3m x 5m = 15m2

Let X be the number of flaws found on area t. X is Poisson distributed, i.e.

x

f(x) = e

x!

with

= t = 15 / 50 = 0.3 (flaws)

= 1 - f(0) - f(1)

= 1 - e-0.3 - 0.3 e-0.3

0.037

(b) Since the probability of replacement is 0.037 and there are 100 panels, we would expect

0.037100 = 3.7 replacements on average,

which gives the expected replacement cost

3.7$5000 $18500

(c) For the higher-grade glass, = 1 (flaw) / 80m2 = 15/80 = 0.1875, with which we can calculate the new

probability

0.0155,

1000.0155$5100 $7920

(assuming each higher grade panel is also $100 more expensive to replace)

Let C = initial cost of old type panels

= C + $18500

New type: Expected total cost = C + Extra initial cost + Expected replacement cost

= C + $100100 + $7920

= C + $17920,

which is less than that of the old type, the higher grade panels are recommended.

Exercise 3-1-5

Solution:

(a) Let X be the number of tornadoes next year. X has a Poisson distribution with

20 occurences

= 20 years

= 1 (per year);

t = 1 year

= t = 1, hence

= P(X 1) = 1 P(X = 0)

= 1 e- = 1 1/e

0.632

(b) This is a binomial problem, with n = 3 and p = yearly probability of having any tornado(es) = 0.632120559.

Hence

= b(2; 3, 0.632120559)

3

= 0.632120559 (1 0.632120559)

2 1

2

0.441

(c)

(i) The tornadoes follow a Poisson model with mean rate of occurrence = 1 (per year), hence for an

observation period of t = 10 (years), the expected number of tornadoes is = t = 10

(ii) Number of tornado years follows a binomial model with n = 10, p = 0.632120559, hence the mean

(i.e. expected) number of tornado years over a ten-year period is np 6.32

Exercise 3-1-6

Solution:

(a) Let X be the number of strong earthquakes occurring within the next 20 years. X has a Poisson distribution

with = (1/50 years)(20 years) = 0.4, hence

P(X 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)

= e-0.4 (1 + 0.4)

0.938

(b) Let Y be the total number (maximum 3) of bridges that will collapse during a strong earthquake; Y has a

binomial distribution with parameters n = 3, p = 0.3, hence the required probability is

= 0.441

(c) During a strong earthquake, the probability that all 3 bridges survive is (1 0.3) 3 = 0.73 = 0.343. But since

any number of strong earthquakes could happen during the next 20 years, we need to compute the total

probability that there is no bridge collapse (with X as defined in part (a)),

P(no bridge collapses) = P(no bridge collapses | x earthquakes occur in 20 years)P(X = x)

x 0

=

x 0

(0.343)x [(e-0.4)(0.4x) / x!]

= (e-0.4) [(0.343)(0.4)]x / x!

x 0

= (e-0.4)(e0.1372) = e-0.2628

0.769

Exercise 3-1-7

Solution:

(a) Let X be the total number of excavations along the pipeline over the next year; X has a Poisson distribution

with mean = (1/50 miles)(100 miles) = 2, hence

P(at least two excavations)

= 1 P(X = 0) P(X = 1)

= 1 e- (1 + ) = 1 e-2(3)

0.594

(b) For each excavation that takes place, the pipeline has 0.4 probability of getting damaged, and hence (1

0.4) = 0.6 probability of having no damage. Hence

P(any damage to pipeline | X = 2)

= 1 P(no damage | X = 2)

= 1 0.62 = 1 0.36

= 0.64

Alternative method: Let Di denote damage to pipeline in i-th excavation; the desired probability is

= P(D1) + P(D2) P(D1 | D2) P(D2)

= P(D1) + P(D2) P(D1 ) P(D2)

= 0.4 + 0.4 0.42 = 0.8 0.16

= 0.64

(c) Any number (x) of excavations could take place, but there must be no damage no matter what x value, hence

we have the total probability

x 0

P(no damage | x excavations) P(x excavations)

e x

=

x 0

0.6x

x!

( 0 .6 ) x

= e- = e- e0.6

x 0 x!

= e-0.4 = e-0.4(2) = e-0.8

0.449

Alternative method: recall the meaning of in a Poisson processit is the mean rate, i.e. the true proportion

of occurrence over a large period of observation. Experimentally, it would be determined by

nE

N

where nE is the number of excavations observed over a very large number (N) of miles of pipeline. Since

40% of all excavations are damaging ones, damaging excavations must also occur as a Poisson process, but

with the diluted mean rate of

0.4n E

D 0.4 , hence

N

D = (0.4)(1/50) = (1/125) (damaging excavations per mile)

Hence

P(no damaging excavation over a 100 mile pipeline)

= e(1/125 mi.)(100 mi.) = e100/125 = e0.8

0.449

Exercise 3-1-9

Solution:

Given: both I and N are Poisson processes, with I = 0.01/mi and N = 0.05/mi. Hence, along a 50-mile section

of the highway, I and N have Poisson distributions with respective means

I = (0.01/mi)(50 mi) = 0.5, N= (0.05/mi)(50 mi) = 2.5

(b) A, accident of either type, has the combined mean rate of occurrence A = I + N = 0.06, hence A has a

Poison distribution with A = (0.06/mi)(50 mi) = 3, thus

P(A 3) = 1 P(A = 0) P(A = 1) P(A = 2)

= 1 e3 (1 + 3 + 32/2) 0.577

(c) Let us model this as an n = 2 binomial problem, where each trial corresponds to an accident, in which

success means injury and failure means non-injury. How do we determine p? Consider the

physical meaning of the ratio I : N = 0.01 : 0.05 -- it compares how frequently I occurs relative to N,

hence their relative likelihood must be 1 to 5, thus P(N) = 5/6 and P(I) = 1/6 whenever an accident occurs.

Therefore, p = 5/6, and

P(2 successes among 2 trials) = p2 = (1/6)2 0.028

Exercise 3-1-11

Solution:

(a) Let D denote defects and R denote defects that remain after inspection. Since only 20% of defects remain

after inspection, we have

1

R = D0.2 = 0.2 = 0.001 per meter

200 meters

(b) For t = 3000 meters of seams, undetected defects have a mean of = R t = (0.001/m)(3000m) = 3,

P(more than two defects) = 1 P(two or less defects)

= 1 [P(D = 0) P(D = 1) P(D = 2)]

= 1 [e3(1 + 3 + 32/2!)] = 1 0.423190081

0.577

(c) Suppose the allowable fraction of undetected defects is p (0 < p < 1), then the mean rate of undetected

defects is U = Dp, hence, for 1000 meters of seams, the (Poisson) mean number of defects is

U1000m = (1/200m)(p)(1000m) = 5p,

thus if we require

P(0 defects) = 0.95

e5p = 0.95

5p = ln(0.95)

p = ln(0.95)/5 = 0.0103,

i.e. only about 1% of defects can go on undetected.

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