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Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e10

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Journal of Cleaner Production


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

A strategic approach to sustainable transport system


development e part 2: the case of a vision for electric
vehicle systems in southeast Sweden
Sven Boren a, *, Lisiana Nurhadi a, Henrik Ny a, Karl-Henrik Robe
rt a, Go
ran Broman a,
b
Louise Trygg
a
Department of Strategic Sustainable Development, Blekinge Institute of Technology, 37179 Karlskrona, Sweden
b
Division of Energy Systems, Department of Management and Engineering, Linko ping University, SE-581 83 Linko
ping, Sweden

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Electric vehicles seem to offer a great potential for sustainable transport development. The Swedish
Received 30 June 2015 pioneer project GreenCharge Southeast is designed as a cooperative action research approach that aims
Received in revised form to explore a roadmap for a fossil-free transport system by 2030 with a focus on electric vehicles. In the
9 February 2016
rst paper of this tandem publication, the authors propose a new generic process model embedding the
Accepted 10 February 2016
Available online xxx
Framework of Strategic Sustainable Development. The purpose of applying it in an action-research mode
as described in this paper was twofold: (i) to develop a vision for sustainable regional transport and a
coarse roadmap towards that vision, and, while doing so, (ii) get additional empirical experiences to
Keywords:
Sustainability
inform the development of the new generic process model. Experts from many sectors and organizations
Cross-sector involved in the GreenCharge project provided vital information and reviewed all planning perspectives
Trafc presented in Paper 1 in two sequential multi-stakeholder seminars. The results include a sustainable
Electric vehicles vision for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden within a sustainable regional transport system
Strategic planning within a sustainable global society, as well as an initial development plan towards such a vision for the
Vision transport sector. The vision is framed by the universal sustainability principles, and the development
plan is informed by the strategic guidelines, of the above-mentioned framework. Among other things,
the vision and plan imply a shift to renewable energy and a more optimized use of areas and thus a new
type of spatial planning. For example, the vision and plan implies a lower built-in demand for transport,
more integrated trafc modes, and more multi-functional use of areas for energy and transport
infrastructures, for example. Some inherent benets of electric vehicles are highlighted in the vision and
plan, including near-zero local emissions and exibility as regards primary energy sources. The vision
and plan also imply improved governance for more effective cross-sector collaboration to ensure coor-
dinated development within the transport sector and between the transportation sector and other
relevant sectors. Meanwhile, the new generic process model was rened and is ready to be applied and
further tested in the GreenCharge project and in other projects within the transport sector as well as
other sectors. The study conrmed that the new generic process model suggested in support of sus-
tainable transport system and community development is helpful for giving diverse stakeholders, with
various specialties and perspectives, a way of working that is goal-oriented and builds on effective,
iterative learning loops and co-creation.
2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Abbreviations: CO2, carbon dioxide; EU, European Union; EV, electric vehicle; Today, the transport sector is heavily dependent on fossil fuels,
FFF, investigation for how to reach a fossil-fuel-independent vehicle eet by 2030; which contribute largely to climate change, ocean acidity, and
FSSD, Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development; GHG, greenhouse gases;
other problems that follow from increased carbon dioxide (CO2)
ICEV, internal combustion engine vehicle; SP, sustainability principle.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 46 734223601. levels in the atmosphere. It is important to address this problem
E-mail address: sven.boren@bth.se (S. Bore n). from a sufciently wide systems perspective (Robe rt et al., 2016,

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055
0959-6526/ 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

n, S., et al., A strategic approach to sustainable transport system development e part 2: the case of a vision
Please cite this article in press as: Bore
for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055
2 S. Boren et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e10

this issue). For example, attempts to solve the CO2 problem should not always the best solution to meet human needs, even in the
not lead to serious backlash effects such as fertile land degradation afuent parts of the world.
or various social sustainability problems. The risk of costly
sub-optimizations can be substantial. Europe, and in particular With the potential benets in mind, an increasing share of local
Sweden, have ambitions to drastically reduce greenhouse gas and national politicians believe the timing is right to start imple-
(GHG) emissions from the transport sector. The Swedish govern- menting EVs into Swedish society and are supporting local and
ment has, for example, set a goal of a fossil-fuel-independent regional initiatives (e.g. Green, 2013; Lindholmen Science Park,
vehicle eet by 2030 (Ministry of the Environment, 2011), but 2014; Oresundskraft, 2014) to build charging infrastructure and
there is little evidence to date of a sufciently large and opera- other actions to stimulate the use of EVs. The GreenCharge project
tional systems perspective. A strategic plan for how to reach those (Nilsson et al., 2012) is a prominent such initiative combining
goals in a systematic way while at the same time making it a research on strategic sustainable development with practical
stepping-stone towards the full scope of sustainability, that is, a demonstrations of how EVs could work outside major cities as well.
wider perspective than focusing on CO2 emissions only, is still An EV test eet and connected cloud-based charging infrastructure
missing. Attempts have been made by the Swedish government, is introduced throughout southeast Sweden while researchers
for example, through the investigation for how to reach a fossil- within the project investigate business models and their sustain-
fuel-independent vehicle eet by 2030 (FFF) (T. B. Johansson ability effects to make recommendations for successful scale-up of
et al., 2013). Various cluster groups of transport stakeholders EV systems. By 2015, the project will have resulted in a roadmap for
have presented other roadmaps. This includes a roadmap for a the development of EV systems in southeast Sweden to meet the
fossil-fuel-independent transport system by 2030 (Sko ldberg Swedish national goal of a fossil-fuel-independent vehicle eet by
et al., 2013) and Roadmap Sweden (Sthl et al., 2013). 2030.
An increasing use of biofuels can facilitate development towards In the rst paper (Robert et al., 2016, this issue) of this tandem
less GHG emissions from road transport. This would rely heavily on publication, the authors propose a new generic process model for
governmental incentives, though, and at least in Sweden, such fuels sustainable community development embedding the Framework of
would need to be imported to a signicant degree (Sanches-Pereira Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD). As described above,
and Go  mez, 2015). Electrical vehicles (EVs) will likely play a more there is a need for a study that claries how road transport in
vital role for the development towards fossil free road transport in Sweden can be developed towards a sustainable future. In this
Sweden because of their inherently higher efciency and their second paper, the authors therefore present the application of this
possible independence from unsustainable energy sourcing generic process model for GreenCharge project purposes and as a
(H. Johansson, 2012; T. B. Johansson et al., 2013; Sthl et al., 2013). contribution to the Swedish national goal of a fossil-fuel-
In line with the latter, EVs should be powered by electricity from independent vehicle eet by 2030. The purpose of this applica-
new renewable and sustainably managed sources (Faria et al., 2012; tion was twofold: (i) to develop a vision for a sustainable transport
Hawkins et al., 2012; Nurhadi et al., 2014). EVs can also play a great system in southeast Sweden and a coarse roadmap towards that
role together with advanced information technology to support vision, and, while doing so, (ii) get additional empirical experiences
integrated systems solutions for sustainable transport and energy to inform the development of the process model. In particular, the
systems (e.g. Ministry of the Environment and Ministry of vision and roadmap aimed to outline the potential role of EV
Enterprise, Energy, and Communications, 2009; The European systems in this context.
Commission, 2011a; H. Johansson, 2012). More concretely, such
integrated systems solutions are expected to include renewable
energy sources, technologies to capture renewable energy in 2. Methods
houses and other infrastructure, energy storage solutions, smart
grids, and EVs due to their high efciency and energy storage The combined work in this tandem publication has been guided
capacity (Rifkin, 2011). A promising example in this direction is the by the FSSD (Broman and Robe rt, 2015, this issue), which has
joint venture between the US companies Tesla and SolarCity that evolved from a scientic consensus process starting in the early
combines car and battery manufacturing with small-scale solar 1990s. The reasons for choosing FSSD are described more in detail
panel installations (Dzieza, 2015). Compared to internal combus- in paper 1 (Robert et al., 2016, this issue) of this tandem publication.
tion engine vehicles (ICEVs), EVs have the advantages of higher In brief, the authors found a need for a framework with sustain-
drivetrain efciency, lower noise levels, and near-zero local emis- ability principles that are universal and useful as boundary condi-
sions when used for transport (T. B. Johansson et al., 2013; Nurhadi tions for backcasting planning and redesign for sustainability in any
et al., 2014). Nevertheless, compared to ICEVs, EVs also have some organization or sector, and with guidelines for how to create and
disadvantages, such as limited range, high purchase price, and an monitor economically feasible step-by-step transitions. The FSSD is
insufcient charging infrastructure (T. B. Johansson et al., 2013; designed to serve such purposes and helps increasing the value of
Nurhadi et al., 2014). Furthermore, this paper addresses many various concepts, methods, and tools for the support of transitions
other challenges that EVs share with other types of vehicles in towards sustainability, such as Cost Benet Analysis, Life Cycle
regards to their usage including Assessment, Multi-Criterion Decision Analysis, Multi Actor Multi
Criteria Analysis, and Environmental Management Systems. The
competition for resources with other vital sectors for the FSSD was used as a shared mental model to structure extensive
fulllment of human needs, literature studies and inform regional multi-stakeholder seminars.
pollution from the life-cycle of material ows, The strategic approach presented in Paper 1 of this tandem publi-
spatial challenges through the vehicles' large need for areal cation includes a generic process model built around logical in-
space, for example, for the capturing of primary energy for the sights that were extensively explored and rened during the
production and propelling of the vehicles, and through the several-year process:
infrastructure for support systems and for the road infrastruc-
ture itself, and  Any sector, including transport, can only be sustainable if it is
social aspects e one billion people live in extreme poverty, sustainable together with other sectors to which it is intimately
while excessive resource ows are allocated to car trafc that is interrelated and dependent on.

n, S., et al., A strategic approach to sustainable transport system development e part 2: the case of a vision
Please cite this article in press as: Bore
for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055
S. Boren et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e10 3

 Development within each of the interrelated sectors should 3. Results


occur as logical step-by-step changes towards compliance with
the sustainability principles (SPs) of the FSSD. The multi-stakeholder seminars led to the identication of some
 Such step-wise approaches for each sector should be mutually vision components, a baseline of current reality assessment, and
supportive, rather than blocking each other, to promote stra- some possible steps towards the vision. The review of the initial
tegic sustainable development. planning perspectives and use of the new generic process model
provided the authors with additional information for renement of
Based on several iterative seminars, the rst paper also suggests that model.
four planning perspectives to be used within the generic process According to the new generic process model proposed in Paper 1
model for community planning, as illustrated below in the Plan- of this tandem publication, any vision of a future transport system
ning Process part of Fig. 5. The authors found a logical sequence should be framed by the SPs in co-creation between actors repre-
that starts with the SPs of the FSSD that frame the future use of senting different disciplines and sectors, while considering the key
resources (resource-base perspective); which set the boundaries planning perspectives of the model. EVs connect to all the planning
for what can be spatially planned (spatial perspective); which then perspectives. From these standpoints, the seminar participants
determines what technical systems, products, and services can be discussed that the following components could be included in a
designed and planned for (technical perspective); and which in vision of a sustainable society, including EV systems:
turn need to be prepared for valuation in governance and man-
agement systems by politicians and managers (governance i. Energy from renewable sources.
perspective). ii. Materials from renewable and/or recycled resources.
The combined process model development and application iii. Transport systems designed to give people an attractive
were supported by two sequential multi-stakeholder seminars on living environment such that a high quality of life is pro-
the regional transport system in southeast Sweden. The seminars moted, including no deaths or serious wounds caused by
were held in Karlskrona on February 27, 2014 and Jo nkoping on trafc (Trakverket, 2012).
March 6, 2014. To get as complete a result as possible, about 30 iv. A broad range of transport solutions for secure and exible
regional EV stakeholders were invited representing municipalities, traveling.
regions, county boards, governmental agencies, companies, poli- v. Integrated trafc modes (e.g., integration of biking with
tics, lobby organizations, etc. The seminar participants (Appendix public transport and heavy trucks or containers with boats
1) were introduced to the FSSD, its SPs, and its ABCD procedure and trains for goods transport).
for backcasting from a vision framed by the SPs. The steps of the vi. Cross-sector collaboration with a comprehensive systems
latter are: perspective that captures synergies (e.g., through multi-
functional use of areas as discussed in Paper 1 of this tan-
A. Drafting a preliminary vision of an EV system within a sus- dem publication).
tainable transport system within a sustainable society (i.e.,
within the constraints set by the SPs of the FSSD). Through clever planning in line with iiievi, the number of EVs
B. Analyzing strengths and weaknesses of today's EV system in does not necessarily need to be the same as our current car eet. On
relation to the vision. the contrary, an attractive, sustainable society could have a smaller
C. Brainstorming ideas for local and regional solutions that could built-in need for car transport. Unfortunately, as conrmed by the
take the region towards the vision. seminar participants, effective cross-sector collaboration towards
D. Prioritizing among ideas from C and co-creating a strategic plan robust denitions of sustainability is currently very unusual. Cur-
for development towards the vision (not done extensively yet in rent infrastructure and working norms for cross-sector collabora-
this study). tion is generally lacking, and it was proposed that this, largely,
might be due to bad experiences. Cross-disciplinary and cross-
The seminar participants were also introduced to an earlier sector meetings may be stimulating at personal levels but often
version of the new process model and informed that this model occur without use of robust and comprehensive structuring and
would not only be applied but also scrutinized and modied during guiding methods for professional cooperation and concrete change.
the process. The upcoming sections describe how these initial results were
The aim of the seminars was to co-create a vision for EVs and to later rened and complemented via studies of governmental and
begin outlining some possible actions and prioritizations to be academic literature, to conclude on a rened vision and a coarse
included in the GreenCharge roadmap. Seminar participants were roadmap for change. The analysis included considerations from all
guided through the ABCD procedure by the facilitators (partly the four planning perspectives included in the new generic process
authors), who also collected data by taking notes that were visible model described in Paper 1 (i.e., the resource-base, spatial, tech-
to everyone. The content and conclusions from each step served as nical, and governance perspectives). Proposals for step-wise solu-
platforms for further analysis during the seminars. The authors tions and parallel transitions in various sectors to arrive at
then further sorted this into each of the planning perspectives as compliance with the SPs were then developed. The results are
described in Section 3. These results were compared to results from described in the forthcoming sections.
literature reviews and further scrutinized against the vision as
described in Section 3.5. Sources for the literature reviews include 3.1. The resource-base perspective
scientic databases (e.g., Science Direct, Engineering Village,
Elsevier, Taylor & Francis Online, and Web of Science), govern- The transport sector requires resources to produce the energy
mental webpages (e.g., European Union, Swedish EPA, and the carriers and materials that the sector needs. Examples are energy
Swedish Transport Administration), and Internet search engines from oil elds, coal mines, and uranium mines and ow-based
(e.g., Google). To further enrich and strengthen the vision creation, energy, such as sunlight, river ows, winds, and, yet only margin-
introductory computer modeling and simulation by the System ally, from sea waves and sea currents. Sunlight is also captured as
Dynamic software Stella (isee systems, 2015) have also been used chemical energy in biomass, which can be used for biofuels and
to create the GreenCharge roadmap. materials production. Mined metals and fossil oil to produce

n, S., et al., A strategic approach to sustainable transport system development e part 2: the case of a vision
Please cite this article in press as: Bore
for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055
4 S. Boren et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e10

plastics, textiles, paint, and asphalt, are currently used heavily for 3.2. The spatial perspective
both vehicles and transport infrastructure.
The following reasoning in regards to resources emerged from As discussed in the multi-stakeholder seminars, a large part of
the multi-stakeholder seminars. In a relatively near future, our the expansion of the built environment occurs in, and in direct
shift towards sustainability can make use of fuels from forestry and conjunction with, medium and large cities, which have grown in
agricultural products. After minor adaptations, our cars, currently population for many decades. Growth often happens in a dispersed
designed to run on gasoline and diesel, can run on biofuels. fashion (urban sprawl), which generates a large, built-in need for
However, the resource potential is low; biofuels are highly inef- area-consuming transport systems. When it comes to strategic
cient when the full life cycle, from capturing primary energy spatial planning, it is essential to apply a backcasting perspective
through photosynthesis to harvesting, production, renement, and where today's actions are put in context with future sustainability
transport to a gasoline station, is taken into account. In addition, constraints. Traditional spatial planning for transport focuses on
biofuels are inherently linked to a risk of increased pressure on people traveling by car and goods transported by truck. This kind of
forests and agricultural land (Bo rjesson and Tufvesson, 2011), area-consuming road transport should, to a higher degree, be
which society depends on to maintain robust ecosystems and integrated with other modes of transport and with the energy
provide food. Sustainable sourcing of such fuels may have a role, at infrastructure. Exception may be needed in some rural areas where
least in the short-to mid-term, but needs to occur with as little there is no reasonable alternative to cars and trucks. The current
ecological repercussions or competition with food production as dependence on fossil fuels will disappear, meaning that transport
possible (for instance by integration in agricultural production users will be relatively more dependent on sustainably managed
where society may use the straw for biofuel production and the resources within the global ecosystems for fueling the transport
cereal grains for food production). It is also important to consider system. Future energy systems will harvest renewable energy ows
social sustainability aspects and, among other things, assure over more extensive areas than currently used, which in turn is
proper working conditions along the biofuel life cycle and to stay likely to inuence the distribution of labor and habitats. To not
clear from land grabbing. Another essential aspect is that early undermine the future potential of our renewable resources, society
steps can bridge to future development steps, maybe in other needs to model its components carefully. Nature's integrity and
sectors. For example, production processes currently used for functions must be safeguarded, while meeting human needs.
biofuels for transport, later ondwhen the transport sector has Modeling of the transport system should happen in this context.
successfully become more electrieddcould be directed to pro- With an ambition to build the city within constraints provided by
vide for the chemical sector with its parallel development away basic SPs, the term decentralized concentration becomes relevant
from fossil fuel sources. As regards electricity for EV systems (Ranhagen, 2013). It is about protecting the central city's concen-
throughout their life cycles, the following point, as described in tration and planning construction of new areas so that they are also
Section 1, is important. In regions where marginal electricity concentrated as well as properly connected to the existing city by
generation is based on fossil fuels (such as the major part of use of resource- and area-efcient transport systems, such as trains,
Europe), growing EV systems must be matched with new elec- buses, and boats. Between such decentralized concentrations con-
tricity generation capacity based on renewable resources to really nected by coordinated and efcient transport systems, spatial
lower the use of fossil fuels in the whole energy- and transport- planning should ensure space for pristine natural areas as well as
system. for agriculture and forestry. During the development of infra-
In regards to vehicle production, the use of reusable and recy- structure, it is also important to protect systems that are already
clable materials is more or less regulated in the EU: functional and favorable from a sustainability point of view (e.g.,
paths for walking, biking, and public transport).
vehicles may be put on the market only if they are re-usable
It was concluded during the multi-stakeholder seminars that
and/or recyclable to a minimum of 85% by mass or are re-usable
shifting from fossil-fueled vehicles to EVs could save space for
and/or recoverable to a minimum of 95% by mass. (The
production of primary energy because of the EVs higher drivetrain
European Commission, 2005).
efciency, but not for infrastructure because the use of EVs per se
does not lower the transport and related infrastructure demand.
Whereas manufacturers producing vehicles for the European The seminars also concluded and the supplementary studies
market are adapting to this regulation, it was pointed out during conrmed that the type of area-consuming road transport that
the multi-stakeholder seminars that producers of other products dominates our current trafc system should be integrated, to a
within the transport sector are currently not forced to follow such a higher degree, with other modes of transport, and therefore
path. Adding to that, a life-cycle perspective has to be applied to decrease and it should be integrated, to a higher degree, with the
avoid unsustainable use of materials during extraction, production, energy infrastructure. Examples of items on the B and C lists from
and distribution. In a sustainable future, the use of materials is the seminars are given in Table 2, and a coarse roadmap as regards
based on renewables in combination with recycled non-renewables the spatial perspective is schematically illustrated in Fig. 2.
in technically tight and economically viable recycling loops.
Generally, this is all managed within the boundary conditions of the 3.3. The technical perspective
SPs and, to that end, through new and rm governance models
(Ragnarsdottir et al., 2011; Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir, 2011; The planning constraints provided under the resource-base and
Kushnir and Sande n, 2012). spatial perspectives imply a need for technical solutions. As dis-
The multi-stakeholder seminars concluded, and the supple- cussed in the multi-stakeholder seminars, it is about choosing
mentary studies conrmed, that oil and gas currently used by the relevant technological solution platforms to optimize multi-
transport system value chains will likely be replaced by a combi- functional use of areas as discussed in Paper 1 of this tandem
nation of biomass and waste materials in the near future, and then publication. For the transport system, this primarily revolves
ow resources will likely take over. Examples of items on the B and around motoring and energy carrier systems. Currently, Otto and
C lists from the seminars are given in Table 1, and a coarse roadmap Diesel engines running on fossil fuels are dominant in vehicles for
as regards the resource-base perspective is schematically illus- road transport. The Otto engine can be adapted to combust
trated in Fig. 1. renewable fuels, such as ethanol or biogas. The Diesel engine is

n, S., et al., A strategic approach to sustainable transport system development e part 2: the case of a vision
Please cite this article in press as: Bore
for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055
S. Boren et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e10 5

Table 1
Resource-base planning perspective applied to EV systems e strengths, weaknesses, and solutions.

B: Current resource-base strengths B: Current resource-base weaknesses

Competitive technology for harvesting renewable energy. Emissions from European electricity production.
EU-directives promoting more sustainable use of materials and fuels. Large proportion of non-renewable resource use throughout the whole life cycle.

C: Ideas for future resource-base solutions

The energy supply for new EV charging facilities should be produced from renewable and sustainably managed resources such as sun, winds, sea waves and sea currents,
and geothermal.
Biofuels are based on waste rather than crops, given the low energy efciency of crop-based biofuels in the total life cycle and the needs for food production and protection
of nature's biodiversity.
Households can be micro-producers of renewable energy by producing their own electricity and selling the surplus to the grid, thereby contributing to an increased supply
of clean resources for the rest of society, including EVs in the trafc system.
Establishment of local EV driveline recycling plants would enhance the reuse of materials and, by strict regulations, safeguard a good working environment during the
recovery process.

Fig. 1. An illustration of road transport development phases in the transition towards sustainability within the resource-base perspective.

Table 2
Spatial planning perspective applied to EV systems e strengths, weaknesses, and solutions.

B: Current spatial strengths B: Current spatial weaknesses

There is an established network of refueling stations that could be used to add fast Use of grid electricity might temporarily lead to increased unsustainable
charging and fuel cell refueling. electricity production in the EU.
Electric buses for public transport are already competitive from a cost and sustainability Insufcient fast charging facilities for traveling further than 150 km.
a
perspective.

C: Ideas for future spatial solutions

Smart-grid integrated electric charging infrastructure designed to fulll different users' needs, such as fast charging along roads between cities, home charging during
nights, and semi-fast charging at shopping centers.
Flexible electric charging infrastructure to integrate different charging systems, such as electric roads, charging poles, battery swap stations, local energy storages, and
other upcoming systems that support sustainable development.
Integration of EV systems with other existing and future systems that contribute towards sustainability (i.e., decentralized concentration, such as city planning for
densication; pumps for biofuels and fuel cell stations; public and human powered transport, such as walking and biking; and car sharing and pooling).
Trains and boats cover a much larger share of goods transport than currently and are used for larger distances, whereas lighter EV trucks are used for the shorter distances.
a
According to Nurhadi et al. (2014).

The Spatial perspective


100%
Combined transport modes, smart grids, electric charging
Development Decentralized concentrations
phases share Area-inefficient car and truck transport
Non-integrated transport
0%
2015 2030 Sustainable Future

Fig. 2. An illustration of road trafc development phases in the transition towards sustainability within the spatial perspective.

currently more energy efcient and can be adapted to combust Seminar participants suggested that the inherently higher ef-
renewable fuels, such as oil from rapeseed, pine trees, hydroge- ciency of electric drivetrains points towards a future with electri-
nated vegetables, and dimethyl ether. Accordingly, today's domi- ed vehicles powered by batteries or fuel cells. If all cars in Sweden
nant energy carriers for personal road transports are fossil gasoline were electric, they would need 10e15 TWh annually (which cor-
and diesel fuels. Ethanol and various types of biodiesel have grown responds to 10% of the current electricity use in Sweden) instead of
to about 10% of the Swedish energy carrier mix, mainly because the current 80 TWh annual supply from fossil fuels (B m,
ackstro
they are blended into fossil gasoline and diesel fuels. The traditional 2013). Today's fuel cells might not be a part of the nal sustain-
engines can be made even more efcient and to emit less. However, able solution, as metal reserves of platinum might hinder fuel cells
there is a trade-off; the higher the compression and working from becoming a globally-dominating motoring system within this
temperature, the more efcient but also the higher the risks for century (Spiegel, 2004; Sanli, 2013). The lithium and other scarce
more NOX emissions, which will need to be mitigated by more metals in today's batteries, taking reserves of lithium and those
advanced emission control equipment. Also, the increase in ef- other scarce metals into account, might also become limiting for
ciency is not expected to be dramatic. EVs unless more effective recycling is developed (Ragnarsdottir

n, S., et al., A strategic approach to sustainable transport system development e part 2: the case of a vision
Please cite this article in press as: Bore
for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055
6 S. Boren et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e10

et al., 2011; Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir, 2011; Kushnir and Sande n, a reaction to congestion during rush hours, rather than as a result of
2012). The development of battery strategies currently seems more multi-stakeholder considerations where any investment is put in
promising as they are not as tightly linked to any particular material the context of forthcoming investments towards an attractive so-
as the fuel cells are. Batteries based on polymer or silicon tech- ciety where all sectors are sustainable.
nologies have been proposed (Liang et al., 2014). Furthermore, in- In the future, society will better embrace the fact that decision
novations allowing batteries to be integrated with the vehicle processes may be strong potential drivers for positive and quick
chassis have substantially improved the driving range, and thereby change. Through shared mental models, competences of different
reduced the need to develop fuel cells for that reason. On the other groups can be used better while teamwork and engagement are
hand, fuel cells with alternative materials have also been proposed enhanced. A way to ask the right questions in such a context is to
and the energy density of hydrogen is much higher than in any of depart in dialogues and decision processes from principles for the
the current and foreseen battery types. Still, with battery technol- full scope of ecological and social sustainability and logical guide-
ogy, society could avoid several of the problems linked to produc- lines to approach fulllment of such principles. This would enable
tion and transport of hydrogen and/or the need for reformers more efcient analyses and modeling of the current situation, more
onboard vehicles. Other ideas for electric powering of vehicles also robust envisioning, and the nding of various smart transition
have been investigated, such as a continuous electricity supply via paths to sustainable visions. Shared mental models, built on a large
electric roads (Trakverket, 2013). enough but still operational systems perspective, are a way of
The multi-stakeholder seminars suggested and the supple- making better use of polarities based on differences in values and
mentary studies conrmed that hybrid solutions including both a norms. Conversely, polarities built on misunderstandings of each
combustion engine and an electric motor will probably remain a other as well as of incontrovertible and universal facts and princi-
bridge until batteries (bypassing the whole fuel-sector, inherently ples are something society can do better without. As discussed in
implying resource savings already from a theoretical point of view) the multi-stakeholder seminars, a basic perspective of envisioning
or fuel cells (still relying on a fuel-sector) can meet all future is to capture the purpose since transport is rarely a goal in itself, but
stakeholder needs, especially for long-range distances and heavy rather a means to fulll a need (e.g., to meet other people, to reach a
transports. desirable geographical point, or to access a product or service).
Examples of items on the B and C lists from the seminars are The multi-stakeholder seminars suggested and the supple-
given in Table 3, and a coarse roadmap as regards the technical mentary studies conrmed that the need for cross-sector cooper-
perspective is schematically illustrated in Fig. 3. ation is, in particular, a challenge to leadership/governance/
management in general. It is the main task of the top management
3.4. The governance perspective of businesses as well as cities, regions, and nations to see the big
challenges of our time, picture decent and feasible goals in this
For technological developments to be put into service for sus- context, and gather and coach participants across sectors and dis-
tainability, in line with the previous planning perspectives, it was ciplines for joint ventures of planning and monitoring of transi-
discussed in the multi-stakeholder seminars that society would tions. Sustainability is the greatest challenge to civilization ever and
need new governance models as well. An example of why a tech- top management cannot abandon the strategic dimension of this
nical x will not sufce on its own is rebound effects from ef- responsibility by passing it on to mid-management or experts in
ciency gains. Higher efciency accomplished by use of modern other elds. The responsibility to structure and coach dialogues
technologies does not always lead to the expected resource savings. accordingly and the consequent demand to learn this art is pri-
For example, higher efciency of electric engines and higher ef- marily a leadership and governance challenge. Examples of items
ciency of society at large from side-passing the whole fuel sector on the B and C lists from the seminars are given in Table 4, and a
(by fueling of cars directly from the grid anywhere) may lead to a coarse roadmap as regards the governance perspective is sche-
drop in mileage costs, which, in turn, may lead to an increased use matically illustrated in Fig. 4.
of private cars thereby consuming large parts of the sustainability
gains offered from EVs. Another example that came up is that many 3.5. A preliminary vision for an EV system in a sustainable
decisions with long-term effects are made without a clear under- southeast Sweden
standing of how sustainability can be dened. The result is that
infrastructure investment decisions are made with an inherent risk Based on the above-mentioned vision components and input
of leading to unwanted and unexpected path-dependencies from the review of the planning perspectives in the multi-
(Hukkinen, 2003). Large investments in beltways often happen as stakeholder seminars and the supplementary studies, the authors

Table 3
Technical perspective applied to EV systems e current strengths, weaknesses, and solutions.

B: Current technical strengths B: Current technical weaknesses

Electric motors are cheaper and easier to maintain than The driving range is less than approximately 1/5 of a fossil-fueled vehicle.
combustion engines.
It is possible to complement the electric driveline with About 50% higher investment cost compared to similar fossil-fueled vehicles.
energy carriers other than electricity.
Near-zero emissions in the use phase. Lack of electric car models for all users.
Electricity costs about 10% of fossil fuels and charging Scarce metals in batteries and fuel cells, with limited reserves for full-scale applications in the future (e.g.,
can be done at home. platinum and lithium) and produced by fossil resources.

C: Ideas for future technical solutions

Public procurement should put demand on recycling of materials and use of renewable energy for the production of EVs. A full life-cycle perspective should be applied.
Keep the concept of electric drivelines, but prepare for other potentially sustainable solutions both for energy storage (i.e., hydrogen fuel cells, ywheels, and compressed
air) and modern battery technologies (also integrated with smart grids in households) and for direct electric drive (e.g., through electric roads).
There will probably be a need for governance interventions that promote new desired EV motoring solutions however, given the long market life spans of Swedish vehicles
(17 years on average), there will likely be a particular need for incentives that speed up conversion to hybrids and retirement of the existing combustion engines.

n, S., et al., A strategic approach to sustainable transport system development e part 2: the case of a vision
Please cite this article in press as: Bore
for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055
S. Boren et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e10 7

The Technical perspective


100%

Electric motoring
Development Electricity, Hydrogen, etc
phases share Internal combustion
Hybrids, Biofuels
engines (gasoline, diesel)
0%
2015 2030 Sustainable Future

Fig. 3. An illustration of road trafc development phases in the transition towards sustainability within the technical perspective.

Table 4
Governance perspective applied to EV systems e current strengths, weaknesses, and solutions.

B: Current governance strengths B: Current governance weaknesses

Development of business models for dealing with the EV concept challenge Politicians are afraid to make unpopular decisions for sustainable development and fail to
(characterized by low operational cost and high initial purchase cost). mold opinions for attractive sustainable futures to motivate investments.
Tax per km instead of resource usage is a proven design that has been used Tax on fossil fuels contributes a lot to the national economy and funds not only the trafc
before in Sweden. sector.
Many regions want more EVs.

C: Ideas for future governance solutions

Redirecting incentives from being based on consumption of fuels towards being based on distance.
Promote the use of vehicles that contribute to sustainable development throughout the whole life cycle.
Sustainability leaders among public (and other) organizations can initially lead the shift towards EV systems by raising awareness among private citizens and
organizations that it is possible to use EVs in daily life and businesses.
EV systems also depend on an increased knowledge and cross-sector cooperation about sustainable transport. A particular focus is needed on stakeholders that can
signicantly contribute to a shift from fossil-fuel vehicles to EVs. This can be a starting point for the creation of a democratic group that participates in governmental
trafc discussions and decisions.
There will probably be a need for governance interventions that promote new EV motoring solutions and, given the long market life spans of Swedish vehicles (17 years in
average), there will likely also be a particular need for incentives that speed up conversion of existing combustion engines to more sustainable fuels.

The Governance perspective


100%
Participatory democracy
Development
phases share Competent decision makers
Relative ignorance Consistent lead with experts as advisors
0% Contradictory expert advice expert advice
2015 2030 Sustainable Future

Fig. 4. An illustration of road trafc development phases in the transition towards sustainability within the governance perspective.

suggest the following overarching vision statement for how EV applied within the transportation eld and the following key re-
systems could contribute to a sustainable transport system and sults were achieved:
society:
 A preliminary sustainable vision for EV systems in southeast
The transport sector shall identify and fully utilize the potential of
Sweden.
electric vehicles to support an efcient, fossil-free, and sustainable
 An initial development plan for road transport towards
society for citizens and businesses.
sustainability.
 A validation of the four planning perspectives and the new
The authors summarize and organize the vision along the generic process model suggested in Paper 1.
planning perspectives in Table 5.
Several other studies have been presented recently regarding
planning for sustainable development with a focus on transport
3.6. Initial plan for sustainable development of road transport
and CO2 emissions reduction. The FFF (T. B. Johansson et al., 2013)
focused on development towards a Swedish fossil-free vehicle eet
The vision and an initial coarse roadmap are also schematically
within decades and included many ideas, actions, and incentives.
illustrated in Fig. 5, together with the generic process model
However, will they be enough to deal with society's sustainability
(described in Paper 1 of this tandem publication) that led up to it
challenges in time? The increase in EVs is, for example, less than
all. In the lower part of the gure, the sustainability implications are
needed in order to comply with some other transport stakeholders'
indicated.
roadmaps to reach the targets of a fossil-free vehicle eet and a
GHG neutral society (Reis, 2010; The European Commission, 2011b;
4. Discussion Sthl et al., 2013). Based on our literature review and research to
date, the authors believe that no roadmap has attempted to create,
In this second paper, the authors have presented an application as this tandem publication has done, a credible pathway towards a
of the generic process model for community development sug- future where the trafc sector is sustainable together with other
gested in the rst paper of this tandem publication. The model was important sectors to which it is linked. None of the other attempts

n, S., et al., A strategic approach to sustainable transport system development e part 2: the case of a vision
Please cite this article in press as: Bore
for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055
8 S. Boren et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e10

Table 5
Planning perspective descriptions of a sustainable EV system.

Planning Descriptions of sustainable EV systems


perspectives

Resource-base Sustainably managed renewable and/or reused/recycled resources.


Spatial Smart electric grids and efcient, well-distributed charging infrastructures integrated into society at large as an element of cleverly optimized use of
areas.
Technical EVs, exible use of energy carriers, no harmful emissions, and fully recycled materials during the life cycle; Renewable fuels and renewably sourced
electricity and hydrogen.
Governance Incentive systems for sustainable mobility; Contributes to Vision Zeroa; Competitiveness regarding cost, availability, comfort, safety, and time;
Governance characterized by competence to plan for sustainability in a sufciently large perspective and manage effective cross-sector inter-
disciplinary coordination towards such goals.
a
No deaths or serious wounds caused by trafc (Trakverket, 2012).

Fig. 5. An illustration of how the iterative planning process from Paper 1 in this tandem publication can result in transport system development and reduced negative sustainability
effects (SP violations) when applied to road transport.

has taken a sufciently wide systems perspective and systemic authors believe the nal results would have been similar even if
approach. The authors have suggested how to broaden the scope other stakeholders had been involved. The authors believe the re-
beyond fossil fuel independence to integrate the resource-base, sults of this study are applicable to regions where an electricity grid
spatial, technical, and governance planning perspectives. The re- exists that can be adapted to include use of EVs. Such regions will
sults of this study, therefore, are based on multi-stakeholder need to cooperate with their neighbors to establish agreements,
modeling and seminars with participants from various disciplines such as charging standards.
and sectors of society. The results could have been different if other In conclusion, the new generic process model suggested in
stakeholders were included. However, based on the literature re- support of sustainable transport system and community develop-
view that complemented and rened the seminar results, the ment proved helpful by giving diverse stakeholders, with various

n, S., et al., A strategic approach to sustainable transport system development e part 2: the case of a vision
Please cite this article in press as: Bore
for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055
S. Boren et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2016) 1e10 9

specialties and perspectives, a way of working that is goal-oriented relationships to the strategic approach to tailor local urban mobility
and builds on effective, iterative learning loops and co-creation. The plans towards a sustainable future. They can reuse, or be inspired
preliminary vision for EV systems in a sustainable southeast by, the preliminary vision and initial development plan for sus-
Swedish society from this second paper is currently on the way to tainable transport that were identied in this paper.
being anchored within a large societal stakeholder group. Unlike
earlier identied studies within the eld, the transport system Acknowledgments
development and vision suggested in this second paper will,
through a science-based strategic sustainability perspective: The authors thank the stakeholder seminar participants for
fruitful contributions to the results and Hkan Johansson and
be framed by rational optimization of areal use and natural Mattias Goldmann for their inspiring seminar speeches. The au-
resources, thors also thank Henric Jonsson from the Blekinge Institute of
include a strategic sustainability and life-cycle perspective Technology and Minoo Akhtarzand and Tomas Paulin from the
that stretches way beyond transport users' CO2 emissions, County Administrative Board in Jo nko
ping for hosting the stake-
ensure that actions and sub-goals promote a move towards holder seminars. Furthermore, the authors are grateful to Go ran
the vision, provide a return on investment, and support each Cars and Jonas Oldmark for their co-authorship of the idea sketch to
other to avoid sub-optimizations and solutions in one sector Vinnova. Finally, nancial support from municipalities, regions,
blocking what needs to happen in other sectors, counties, county councils, companies, and the Energy Agency
include essential stakeholders in early planning phases to involved in the GreenCharge project is gratefully appreciated. These
prevent gaps of knowledge and engagement when it is time to organizations were not involved in the writing and submission of
make decisions to start activating roadmaps, and this paper for publication.

Appendix 1. Participants at Stakeholder Seminars during 2014

February 27th in Karlskrona Organization Name nko


March 6th in Jo ping Organization Name

Blekinge Institute of Technology Bjorn Stille Blekinge Institute of Technology Johan Holmgren
Blekinge Institute of Technology Henric Johnson Blekinge Institute of Technology, GreenCharge Lisiana Nurhadi
Blekinge Institute of Technology, GreenCharge Henrik Ny Blekinge Institute of Technology, GreenCharge Sven Bore n
Blekinge Institute of Technology, GreenCharge Lisiana Nurhadi Eksjo Energi AB Johan Starck
Blekinge Institute of Technology, GreenCharge Sven Bore n Regionforbundet Jo nko
pings la
n Bengt Dahlqvist
Ehrensvardska gymnasiet Par Pettersson SunDrive Peter B m
ackstro
Energy Agency Southeast Ulf Hansson Fores Mattias Goldmann
GreenCharge, Miljo fordon Syd Jonas Loof Gislaved Energi AB Joacim Cederwall
Innoventum Morgan Widung GreenCharge, Jo nko
ping County Administration Andreas Olsson
Innoventum Sigvald Harrysson GreenCharge, Jo nko
ping County Governor Minoo Akhtarzand
Karlshamns Energi Bo Johansson Habo Energi AB Bengt Fransson
Karlskrona AB Birgith Juel nko
Jo pings Energi Fridolf Eskilsson
Municipal Commissioner of Karlskrona Sophia Bothorp Municipality Board of Na ssjo
Anders Karlsson
Municipality of Karlskrona Sven-Olof Petersson Municipality of Eksjo rn Alm
Bjo
Region Blekinge Mattias Roos Municipality of Eksjo Kurt Jansson
Student (Blekinge Institute of Technology) Matilda Svensson Municipality of Gislaved Maria Alm
Student (Blekinge Institute of Technology) Rifad Rahman Municipality of Gnosjo Christer Larsson
Student (Blekinge Institute of Technology) Viktor Une us Municipality of Habo Rickard Almgren
Student (Linnaeus University) Jesko Shulte Municipality of Habo Thomas Werthe n
Swedish Transport Administration Hkan Johansson Municipality Board of Va rnamo Arnold Gustavsson
The Natural Step, Blekinge Institute of Technology Karl-Henrik Robe rt Perpend AB Roland Gustavsson
Torbjorn Strom The Natural Step, Blekinge Institute of Technology Karl-Henrik Robe rt
Tillv nsklighetens tja
axt i ma nst Eiwe Ljungblom
VETAB Lena Karlsson

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n, S., et al., A strategic approach to sustainable transport system development e part 2: the case of a vision
Please cite this article in press as: Bore
for electric vehicle systems in southeast Sweden, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.055