Statistics 1 A LEVEL

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Statistics 1 A LEVEL

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You are on page 1of 9

2

CHAPTER 1

Representation of Data

2

CHAPTER 2

Measure of Location

3

CHAPTER 3

Measure of Spread

4

CHAPTER 4

Probability

5

CHAPTER 5

Permutations & Combinations

5

CHAPTER 6

Probability Distribution

6

CHAPTER 7

Binomial Distribution

6

CHAPTER 8

Discrete Random Variables

7

CHAPTER 9

The Normal Distribution

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CIE A LEVEL- MATHEMATICS [9709]

1.4 Histograms

1. REPRESENTATION OF DATA A bar chart which represents continuous data

Bars have no space between them

1.1 Types of Data Area of each bar is proportional to frequency

Qualitative =

(descriptive)

Types of Discrete For open ended class width, double the size of

Data Quantitative (e.g. age) previous class width and use this

(numeric) Continuous If range 0 9 then class width is 0.5 9.5

(e.g. weight)

1.5 Cumulative Frequency Graphs

1.2 Stem-and-Leaf Diagrams:

Upper quartile = 75% Lower quartile = 25%

Used to represent data in its original form. =

Each piece of data split into 2 parts; stem & leaf. When finding median & quartiles, draw in vertical

Leaf can only by 1 digit and should be written in and horizontal dashed lines.

ascending order Join points together with straight lines unless

Always include a key on your diagram. asked to draw a cumulative frequency curve

1.6 Skewness

Symmetrical: Median line lies in the middle of the

box (i.e. UQ median = median LQ)

Positively skewed: median line lies closer to LQ

than UQ (i.e. UQ median > median LQ)

Negatively skewed: median line lies closer to UQ

than to the LQ (i.e. UQ median < median LQ)

Five figure summary:

o Lowest and highest values

o Lower and upper quartiles

o Median

Mean & standard deviation most useful when

data roughly symmetrical & contains no outliers 2. MEASURE OF LOCATION

Median and interquartile range typically used if

data skewed or if there are outliers. 2.1 Mode

Most common or most popular data value

Only average that can be used for qualitative data

Not suitable if the data values are very varied

Modal class: class with highest frequency density

can easily be made. Middle value when data ordered

o If odd, median = 12 ( + 1) value

o If even, median = 12 value

Not affected be extreme values

Page 2 of 8

CIE A LEVEL- MATHEMATICS [9709]

Estimating Median from Grouped Frequency Table: 3.3 Variance in Frequency Table

Frequency Cumulative Frequency ( )2 2

10 20 4 4

or

2

20 25 8 12 {W04-P06} Question 4:

25 35 5 17 The ages, years, of 18 people attending an evening

35 50 3 20 class are summarised by the following totals:

Solution: = 745, 2 = 33 951

Use cumulative frequency to find the middle value i.e. i. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of

20 2 = 10 the ages of this group of people.

you are finding the 10th value ii. One person leaves group and mean age of the

The 10th value lies between 20 and 25 remaining 17 people is exactly 41 years. Find age

of the person who left and standard deviation of

the ages of the remaining 17 people.

Solution:

Part (i)

(12 4) (25 20) 2

(12 10) (25 ) = 2 =

12 10 = 13.2 = 41.4

25 = (25 20)

12 4 Part (ii)

= 23.75 The total age of the 18 people

= 745

2.3 Mean Find the total age of the 17 people

Sum of data divided by number of values = 41 17 = 697

Subtract the two to get the age

= or =

745 697 = 48 years

Important as it uses all the data values Calculating the new standard deviation

Disadvantage: affected by extreme values Find the 2 of the 17 people

If data is grouped use mid-point of group as 2 = 33 951 482 = 31 647

Coded mean: if being used to calculate standard Find the standard deviation

deviation, can be used as is else: 31 647

( ) = (41)2 = 13.4

17

= +

3 MEASURE OF SPREAD {S13-P62} Question 2:

A summary of the speeds, kilometres per hour, of 22

3.1 Standard Deviation cars passing a certain point gave the following

Deviation from the mean is the difference from a information:

value from the mean value ( 50) = 81.4 and ( 50)2 = 671.0

The standard deviation is the average of all of Find variance of speeds and hence find the value of 2

these deviations Solution:

Finding the variance using coded mean

If coded mean and sums given, use as it is,

671.0 81.4 2

standard deviation not altered Variance = 22 ( 22 ) = 16.81

Find the actual mean

3.2 Variance of Discrete Data = 81.4 + (22 50) = 1181.4

1 1 Put this back into variance formula

( )2 or 2 2

2 1181.4 2

Standard deviation is the square root of that 16.81 = ( )

22

2 = 2900.5 22

2 = 63811

Page 3 of 8

CIE A LEVEL- MATHEMATICS [9709]

4 PROBABILITY {S07-P06} Question 2:

Jamie is equally likely to attend or not to attend a

4.1 Basic Rules training session before a football match. If he attends,

he is certain to be chosen for the team which plays in

All probabilities lie between 0 and 1

the match. If he does not attend, there is a probability

() = The probability of event of 0.6 that he is chosen for the team.

( ) = 1 () = The probability of not i. Find probability that Jamie is chosen for team.

To simplify a question represent info in tree ii. Find the conditional probability that Jamie

diagram: attended the training session, given that he was

chosen for the team

Solution:

Part (i)

Probability attends training and chosen

0.5 1 = 0.5

Probability doesnt attend and chosen

0.5 0.6 = 0.3

Total probability

0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8

{S08-P06} Question 7: Part (ii)

A die is biased so that the probability of throwing a 5 is ( )

0.75 and probabilities of throwing a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 are all (|) =

()

equal. The die is thrown thrice. Find the probability that 0.5

the result is 1 followed by 5 followed by any even number (|) = = 0.625

0.8

Solution:

Probability of getting a 1

Old Question: Question 7:

1 0.75 = 0.25

5 numbers 0.25 5 = 0.05 Events and are such that () = 0.3, () = 0.8

Probability of getting a 5 = 0.75 and ( ) = 0.4. State, giving a reason in each

Probability of getting an even number; can be 2, 4 or 6 case, whether and are

i. independent

0.05 3 = 0.15

Total probability ii. mutually exclusive

0.05 0.75 0.15 = 0.00563 Solution:

Part (i)

and are not mutually exclusive because:

4.2 Mutually Exclusive Events

( ) does not equal 0

2 events which have no common outcomes Part (ii)

Addition Law of MEEs: and are not independent because:

( ) = 0 () () does not equal 0.4

Calculation of probability of one event given that Tim throws a fair die twice and notes the number on

another, connected event, had occurred each throw. Events A, B, C are defined as follows.

Multiplication Law of Connected Events: A: the number on the second throw is 5

( ) B: the sum of the numbers is 6

(|) = C: the product of the numbers is even

()

By calculation find which pairs, if any, of the events A, B

4.4 Independent Events and C are independent.

Solution:

Events that arent connected to each other in any

Probability of Event A = P(Any Number) P(5)

way 1 1

Multiplication Law for IEs: () = 1 =

6 6

( ) = () ()

Page 4 of 8

CIE A LEVEL- MATHEMATICS [9709]

Finding the probability of Event B Total arrangements when items cannot be together:

Number of ways of getting a sum of 6: Example:

5 and 1 1 and 5 4 and 2 2 and 4 3 and 3 In how many ways can the letters in the word SUCCESS

1 1 5 be arranged if no two Ss are next to one another?

() = ( ) 5 =

6 6 36 Solution:

Finding the probability of Event C U E C1 C2 & S1 S2 S3

One minus method; you get an odd only when odd U E C1 C2

multiplies by another odd number: S has 5 different places in can be placed into.

1 1

1 () = From previous note, we must divide by repeated letters

2 2 !

3 No. of Arrangements = ! !

=

() =

4

For an independent event, ( ) = () () 5.2 Combination

1

( ) = (1 5) = The number of ways of selecting objects from

36

() () unlike objects is:

3

!

( ) = [(2,5) + (4,5) + (6,5)] = =

36 ! ( )!

() () Order does not matter

2

( ) = [(2,4) + (4,2)] =

36 5.3 Permutations

() ()

The number of ordered arrangements of r objects

none are independent.

taken from n unlike objects is:

!

5 PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS

=

( )!

Order matters

5.1 Factorial

The number of ways of arranging unlike objects

6 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

in a line is !

The probability distribution of a discrete random

variable is a listing of the possible values of the

Total arrangements for a word with repeated letters:

variable and the corresponding probabilities

( )!

Total of all probability always equals 1

( )!

Can calculate unknowns in a probability

If more than one letter repeated, multiply the factorial of

distribution by summing them to equal 1

the repeated in the denominator

{S05-P06} Question 3:

Total arrangements when two people be together: A fair dice has four faces. One face is coloured pink, one

is orange, one is green and one is black. Five such dice

Consider the two people as one unit

are thrown and the number that fall on a green face is

counted. The random variable X is the number of dice

Example: that fall on a green face. Draw up a table for probability

In a group of 10, if A and B have to sit next to each distribution of , giving your answers correct to 4 d.p.

other, how many arrangements are there? Solution:

Solution: This is a binomial distribution where the probability of

(9!) (2!) 1

2! is necessary because A and B can swap places success is 4 and the number of trials is 5

1 3

( = ) = ( ) ( )

If question asks for two people not to be next to 4 4

The dice are rolled five times thus the number of green

each other, simply find total arrangements (10!) faces one can get ranges from 0 to 5

and subtract the impossible i.e. (9!) (2!)

Page 5 of 8

CIE A LEVEL- MATHEMATICS [9709]

Use formula to obtain probabilities e.g. ( = 1), 8 DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES

1 1 3 4

( = 1) = 51 ( ) ( ) = 0.3955

4 4 8.1 Probability Distribution Tables

Thus draw up a probability distribution table To calculate the expected value of a random

0 1 2 3 4 5

variable or its mean:

( = ) 0.2373 0.3955 0.2637 0.0879 0.0146 0.0010

() = =

Conditions: first calculate the expected value of a random

Only 2 possible outcomes & are mutually exclusive variable squared

Fixed number of trials ( 2 ) = ( )2

Outcomes of each trial independent of each other

Probability of success at each trial is constant Finally to calculate the variance

( = ) = () 2 = ( )2 = 2 2

= failure = (1 ) A factory makes a large number of ropes with lengths

= number of trials either 3m or 5m. There are four times as many ropes of

length 3m as there are ropes of length 5m. One rope is

A binomial distribution can be written as: chosen at random. Find the expectation and variance of

its length.

~(, ) Solution:

From information given, calculate probabilities

{W11-P62} Question 6: 4 1

In Luttley College; 60% of students are boys. Students (3 ) = (5 ) =

5 5

can choose exactly one of Games, Drama or Music on Calculate expectation/mean

Friday afternoons. 75% of the boys choose Games, 4 1

() = = (3 ) + (5 ) = 3.4

10% choose Drama and remainder choose Music. Of 5 5

the girls, 30% choose Games, 55% choose Drama and Calculate expectation squared

remainder choose Music. 5 drama students are chosen. 4 1

( 2 ) = ( )2 = (32 ) + (52 ) = 12.2

Find the probability that at least 1 of them is a boy. 5 5

Solution: Calculate the variance

First we calculate the probability of selecting a boy who 2 = 2 2 = 12.2 (3.42 ) = 0.64

is a drama student; a conditional probability:

(|)

() = 8.2 Binomial Distribution

()

() () ~(, )

() =

(() ()) + (() ()) To calculate the expected value of a random

0.6 0.1 3 variable or its mean with a binomial distribution:

() = =

(0.6 0.1) + (0.4 0.55) 14 () = =

We can calculate the probability there is at least 1 boy

present from 5 drama students using a binomial To calculate the variance:

3

distribution with 5 trials and P of success = 2 = (1 )

14

Find probability of 0 and subtract answer from 1:

( 1) = 1 ( = 0)

3 0 11 5

( 1) = 1 55 ( ) ( )

14 14

( 1) = 0.701

Page 6 of 8

CIE A LEVEL- MATHEMATICS [9709]

{S11-P63} Question 6: 9.2 Finding Probabilities

The probability that Sue completes a Sudoku puzzle Example

correctly is 0.75. Sue attempts 14 Sudoku puzzles every For a random variable with normal distribution

month. The number that she completes successfully is ~ (20, 42 )

denoted by . Find the value of that has the highest Find the probability of ( 25)

probability. You may assume that this value is one of Standardize the probability

the two values closest to the mean of . 25 20

Solution: = = 1.25

4

Calculate the mean of Search for this value in normal tables

() = 14 0.75 = 10.5 (1.25) = 0.8944

Successful puzzles completed has to be a whole number Find the probability of ( 25)

so can either be 10 or 11. Change from greater than to less than using:

(10) = 1410 0.7510 0.254 = 0.220 ( ) = 1 ( )

(11) = 1411 0.7511 0.253 = 0.240 ( 25) = 1 ( 25)

Probability with 11 is higher Using the probability from above

= 11 ( 25) = 1 0.8944 = 0.1057

Find the probability of ( 12)

9 THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION Standardize the probability

12 20

= = 2

4

Change from negative value to positive by:

( ) = 1 ( )

( 2) = 1 ( 2)

Search for 2 in the normal tables

( 2) = 1 0.9773 = 0.0228

Find the probability of (10 30)

Split inequality into two using:

( ) = ( ) ( )

(10 30) = ( 30) ( 10)

Standardize values

{W13-P61} Question 1: = ( 2.5) ( 2.5)

It is given that ~(30, 49), ~(30, 16) and Convert negative value to positive

~(50, 16). On a single diagram, with the horizontal = ( 2.5) (1 ( 2.5))

axis going from 0 to 70, sketch 3 curves to represent the Search for 2.5 in the normal tables

distributions of , and . = 0.9938 (1 0.9938) = 0.9876

Solution:

For , plot center of curve at 30 and calculate = 49 9.3 Using Normal Tables Given Probabilities

Plot 3 to the left and right i.e. 30 21 = 9 and {S12-P61} Question 6:

30 + 21 = 51. Follow example for the other curves. The lengths of body feathers of a particular species of

bird are modelled by a normal distribution. A

researcher measures the lengths of a random sample of

600 feathers and finds that 63 are less than 6 cm long

and 155 are more than 12 cm long.

i. Find estimates of the mean and standard

9.1 Standardizing a Normal Distribution deviation of the lengths of body feathers of

birds of this species.

To convert a statement about ~(, 2 ) to a statement

ii. In a random sample of 1000 body feathers from

about (0,1), use the standardization equation: birds of this species, how many would the

researcher expect to find with lengths more

=

than 1 standard deviation from the mean?

Page 7 of 8

CIE A LEVEL- MATHEMATICS [9709]

Solution: 9.5 Continuity Correction Factor (e.g. 6)

Part (i)

Binomial Normal

Interpreting the question and finding probabilities:

( < 6) = 0.105 ( > 12) = 0.258 = 6 5.5 6.5

For < 6, the probability cannot be found on the > 6 6.5

tables which means it is behind the mean and therefore 6 5.5

we must find 1 and assume probability is negative < 6 5.5

( < 6) = 0.895 6 6.5

Using the standardization formula and working back

from the table as we are given probability {S09-P06} Question 3:

6 On a certain road 20% of the vehicles are trucks, 16%

= 1.253 are buses and remainder are cars. A random sample of

Convert the greater than sign to less than 125 vehicles is taken. Using a suitable approximation,

( > 12) = 1 ( < 12) find the probability that more than 73 are cars.

( < 12) = 1 0.258 = 0.742 Solution:

Work back from table and use standardization formula Find the probability of cars

(12 ) 1 (0.16 + 0.2) = 0.64

= 0.650 Form a binomial distribution equation

Solve simultaneous equations ~(125, 0.64)

= 3.15 and = 9.9 Check if normal approximation can be used

Part (ii) 125 0.64 = 80 and 125 (1 0.64) = 45

Greater than 1sd from means both sides of the graph Both values are greater than 5 so normal can be used

however area symmetrical find greater & double it ~ (125, 0.64) ~ (80, 28.8)

Using values calculated from (i) Apply the continuity correction

( > (9.9 + 3.15) = ( > 13.05) ( > 73) = ( 73.5)

Standardize it Finding the probability

13.05 9.9 ( 73.5) = 1 ( 73.5)

=1

3.15 Standardize it

Convert the greater than sign to less than 73.5 80

( > 1) = 1 ( < 1) = = 1.211

28.8

Find probability of 1 and find ( > 1) As it is a negative value, we must one minus again

( > 1) = 1 0.841 = 0.1587 1 (1 ( < 1.211) = ( < 1.211)

Double probability as both sides taken into account Using the normal tables

0.1587 2 = 0.3174 = 0.8871

Multiply probability with sample

0.3174 1000 = 317 birds

The normal distribution can be used as an

approximation to the binomial distribution

For a binomial to be converted to normal, then:

> 5 and > 5

~(, ) ~(, )

Page 8 of 8

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