24 views

Uploaded by muhamad.badar9285

SGA

- Excel Tutorial
- FR1 Chem 28.1 Expt 1
- Cp, Cpk, Cm, Cmk, Control Limits
- Introduction to Samping Distributions
- LAB4
- Assignment+1+Solutions
- 1
- cheat1.pdf
- 08 Normal Dist 8 Qns
- 2016 Student MAM Course Outline Final
- Normal +Bionomial
- Traducción Raul Proba
- Basic Statistics
- Cornell Psych 205: day04
- Practice Exam 3 Fall 2018.pdf
- RRChapter17.ppt
- Hendriks 2015
- matpands.pdf
- 1_scheip04a
- Safety Stock Model

You are on page 1of 11

Part 1 Addition rule for mutually exclusive events

two non-

non-mutually exclusive events

Identifying Independent events

Normal Distribution Screening test measures as examples of

conditional probabilities

Application of Bayes Theorem to calculate

PPV and NPV

Lesson 6 describes probability Probability Distributions

distributions for numerical variables Normal Distribution

Part 1: Distributions for continuous data Standard Normal (Z) Distribution

Part 2: Distributions for discrete data

Excel functions for normal distribution

probabilities

NORMDIST and NORMSDIST functions

NORMSINV and NORMINV functions

Any characteristic that can be measured or Blood type is a random nominal variable

categorized is called a variable

variable..

If the variable can assume a number of different The blood type of a randomly selected individual

values such that any particular outcome is is unknown but the distribution of blood types in

determined by chance it is called a random the population can be described

variable.

Distribution of Blood types in the US

Every random variable has a corresponding

probability distribution.

distribution. 50%

40%

Probability

10%

random variable.

variable. 0%

O A B AB

Blood Type

1

Probability Distributions for Probability Distributions for

Continuous Data Continuous Data

Continuous Data can take on any value within

the range of possible values so describing the

distribution of continuous data in a table is not

very practical

Definition: a probability density curve is a curve

describing a continuous probability distribution

density curve is a smooth line.

almost 0) and the sample size gets larger and larger.

Probability Density Curve

Density Curve

The probability density is a smooth idealized

.4

random variable in the population

.3

Percentage

.2

1.0

The probability density curve in the systolic blood

.1

bell-shape of a normal

distribution. Not all probability density curves

0

Systolic BP (mmHg)

have a normal distribution.

The Probability Density Curve for BP values for an infinite sample of men

2

Shapes of Probability Density

Normal Distribution

Curves The Normal Distribution is also called

There are many possible shapes for the the Gaussian Distribution after

probability density curves of continuous Karl Friedrich Gauss, a German

data. mathematician (1777 1855)

Right Skewed

Left Skewed Characteristics of any Normal Distribution

Bell

Bell--shaped curve

Bimodal

Unimodal peak is at the mean

Multimodal

Symmetric about the mean

Mean = Median = Mode

The most commonly used probability Tails of the curve extend to infinity in both

distribution in the study of statistics is the directions

normal distribution

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 13 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 14

Normal Distribution

Q Is every variable normally distributed?

A No there are skewed (asymmetric)

distributions and there are bimodal

distributions.

Q Then why do we spend so much time studying

the normal distribution?

A Two answers:

1. Many variables in health research are normally

distributed

2. More importantly: Many statistical tests are based

on the normal distribution

Describing Normal

Symbol Notation

Distributions

A convention in statistics notation is to use Roman letters

for sample statistics and Greek letters for population Every Normal distribution is uniquely

parameters. Since the density curve describes the population, described by its mean (

() and standard

Greek letters are used for the mean (mu) and SD (sigma) deviation (

()

The Notation for a normal distribution is

Density

N(,

N(, )

Symbol Sample Curve

N(125, 4) refers to a normal distribution with

mean = 125 and variance = 16.

Mean X

Standard

Deviation s

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 17 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 18

3

The 68-

68-95-

95-99.7 Approximation

for all Normal Distributions

Regardless of the mean and standard deviation of

the normal distribution:

68% of the observations fall within one standard

Normal density with Two normal densities with different

mean=5 and =1 mean values and same deviation of the mean

95% of the observations fall within approximately*

two standard deviations of the mean

99.7% of the observations fall within three

standard deviations of the mean

same mean

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 19 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 20

The 68-

68-95-

95-99.7 Approximation Distributions of Blood Pressure

for all Normal Distributions

.4

.3

3 standard deviations of the mean 68% = 125 mmHG

.2

= 14 mmHG

* 95% of the observations fall within 1.96 SD of the mean 95%

.1

99.7%

0

83 97 111 125 139 153 167

of systolic blood pressure in men.

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 21 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 22

a Normal Distribution Curve a Normal Distribution Curve

The total area under the curve = 1.0 which is the What is the probability that a man has blood

total probability pressure between 111 and 139 mmHg?

Areas for intervals under the curve can be

Using the 68% rule for a normal distribution and the mean and

interpreted as probability

standard deviation for SBP (previous slide), we know the

What is the probability that a man has blood probability that a randomly selected man has blood pressure

pressure between 111 and 139 mmHg? between 111 and 139 mmHg = 0.68.

4

Calculating the Areas under

Areas under the Curve

the Curve

What if you wanted to find the probability of a Calculating area (or probability) under a normal

man having SBP < 105 mmHg? distribution curve is a numeric problem involving

integration of the formula for the normal

The 68-95-99.7

We want the area distribution (see page 77 of text). This is not an

below 105 rule cant be used

to find this area easy calculation. Other options are:

under the curve Table A-

A-2 in the text is a table of areas under the

standard normal curve the normal distribution

with mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1

83 97 111

105

125 139 153 167 The NORMDIST function in Excel can be used

SBP in mmHg to find the area under a normal distribution

density curve.

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 25 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 26

NORMDIST returns the cumulative area from the

far left (negative infinity) of the normal density What is the probability that a randomly

curve to the value specified. This is equal to the selected man has SBP < 105 mmHg?

probability of being less than the indicated value

SBP ~ N(125, 142)

(X).

You need to provide the value, the mean, the For area less than some value use

standard deviation and an indicator (1 or TRUE) NORMDIST(value, , , , 1)

to request this cumulative area.

=NORMDIST(X, , ,1) returns the probability of having

=NORMDIST(105

=NORMDIST( 105,, 125, 14, 1) = 0.076

a value less than X. The probability that a randomly selected

1-NORMDIST(X, , ,1) returns the probability of having

a value greater than X

man has SBP < 105 mmHg = 0.076

What if you wanted to find the probability of a What is the probability that a man has

man having SBP > 150? SBP > 150 mmHg?

Mean = 125, standard deviation = 14

We want the area For area greater than some value, use

above 150

1 NORMDIST(value, , , , 1)

=1-

=1-NORMDIST(

NORMDIST(150 150,, 125, 14, 1) = 0.037

83 97 111 125 139 153 167

The probability that a randomly selected

SBP in mmHg

150 man has SBP > 150 = 0.037

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 29 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 30

5

Areas under the Curve Using NORMDIST function

What if you wanted to find the probability of a What is the probability that a man has

man having SBP between 115 and 135? SBP between 115 and 135 mmHg?

We want the area For area between two values, subtract the

between 115 and 135

area to the left of the smaller value from

the area to the left of the larger value

=NORMDIST(135, 125, 14, 1)

NORMDIST(115, 125, 14, 1) = 0.52

83 97 111 115 125 135139 153 167

The probability that a man has SBP

between 115 and 135 mmHg = 0.52

SBP in mmHg

In this course, we wont be using the table of areas The Standard Normal Distribution is the

under the standard normal curve to find

probabilities. normal distribution with

Mean = 0

Instead, use NORMDIST to find the area Standard deviation = 1

(probability) under a normal distribution density The notation for the Standard Normal

curve Distribution is N(0,1)

For area < x: =NORMDIST(x, , ,1) Note the 1 refers to the the SD

For area > x: =1-

=1-NORMDIST(x, , ,1) In the Standard Normal Distribution, the

For area between a and b with b > a: variance is equal to the standard deviation.

=NORMDIST(b, , , , 1) NORMDIST(a, , , , 1)

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 33 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 34

Standard Normal

Formula for Z-

Z-score

Transformation

Any normal distribution of some variable X can be

transformed to a standard normal distribution by

the following calculations: X

Subtract the mean (

() from each value for X Z=

Divide each value of X by the standard deviation

These transformed variables are called Z-

Z-scores. Z is calculated by subtracting the mean () from X

Sometimes referred to as z-

z-variables or zz--values or and dividing by the standard deviation ()

standard scores Subtracting the mean centers the distribution at 0

Dividing by , rescales the standard deviation to 1

6

Standard Normal Scores

Divide by standard deviation

SubtractMean =

the mean The z-

z-score is interpreted as the number of SD

Subtract

SD = the mean an observation is from the mean

Z = 1: The observation lies one SD above

the mean

Standard normal curve Z = 2: The observation is two SD above the

mean

Z = -1: The observation lies 1 SD below the

mean

Z = -2: The observation lies 2 SD below the

mean

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 37 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 38

95% of

area

probability=0.5 probability=0.5 area area

Standard Normal

Since the area under the curve = 1.0, 50% of the area is on either side of Distribution with 95% area

the mean. marked

Therefore, the probability of an observation being greater than 0 = 0.50 95% of the probability is between z = 1.96 and z = -1.96 on the standard normal curve

and the probability that an observation is less than 0 = 0.50.

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 39 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 40

Example: Male Systolic Blood Pressure has

mean = 125, standard deviation = 14 mmHg The NORMSDIST function in Excel can be used

For SBP = 150 mmHg what is the ZZ--score? to find the area under a standard normal curve

You can remember that NORMS

NORMSDIST is for the

Standard Normal distribution because of the S

Z=

NORMSDIST(Z) gives the area to the left of the

The probability of having SBP > 150 is equal to the

indicated z-

z-score. The mean and standard

area under the standard normal curve > 1.79

deviation do not need to be specified since they

are known (

( = 0 and = 1)

Area > 1.79

For areas greater than a z-

z-score, use

1-NORMSDIST(Z)

7

Using NORMSDIST Using NORMSDIST

What is the probability that a man has SBP < 105?

What is the probability that a man has SBP > 150? Calculate the z-

z-score for 105 from the normal

First calculate the Z-

Z-score for 150 distribution with = 125 and = 14

150 125

Z= = 1.79 Z=

14

In EXCEL use =1 - NORMSDIST(1.79) = 0.0367

In Excel use =NORMSDIST(-

=NORMSDIST(-1.43) = 0.076

The probability that a man has SBP > 150 = 0.037.

This is the same as the result using

This is the same as the probability obtained using NORMDIST(105, 125, 14, 1) = 0.076

the NORMDIST function The probability that a randomly selected man has

SBP < 105 = 0.076

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 43 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 44

What is the probability of having SBP between 115 For areas between two values, subtract the area to

and 135? the left of the smaller value from the area to the left

of the larger value.

Find the Z-

Z-scores for SBP = 115 and SBP = 135

Use the z-z-scores with NORMSDIST:

115 125 135 125 =NORMSDIST(0.71) NORMSDIST(

NORMSDIST(--0.71) = 0.52

Z= = -0.71 Z= = 0.71

14 14

Compare this to the result obtained using

NORMDIST:

=NORMDIST(135, 125, 14, 1) NORMDIST(115,125, 14, 1) =

Area between 0.71 and 0.71

0.52

The probability that a man has SBP between 115

and 135 = 0.52.

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 45 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 46

The Inverse problem

NORMSDIST

The interpretation of the probability is always What if you instead of finding the area for

stated in terms of the original data scale, not the a zz--score you want to know the z-

z-score for

transformed z-

z-distribution a specified area?

Why bother with the extra step of calculating the

z-score?

NORMSINV in Excel can find the z- z-score

z-scores are used to find probabilities from standard for a specified area

normal tables such as Table A-A-2 in the text appendix NORMINV in Excel can find the x -value

The z-

z-score represents the number of standard

deviations an observation is from the mean which can for a specified area from any normally

be useful in understanding and visualizing the data. distributed variable

Comparisons between groups (unit less measure)

8

Inverse problem: Ex. 1 NORMSINV function in Excel

Find a z value such that the probability of obtaining Find the z-

z-score such that the probability of

a larger z score = 0.10. having a larger z-

z-score = 0.10

NORMSINV(0.10) returns the z- z-score such that

the probability of being < Z = 0.10

Area=0.10 If the area > than the z-

z-score = 0.1, then the

area < than the z-

z-score = 1 0.1 = 0.9

Use NORMSINV(0.9) = 1.28

The probability that a z-

z-score is greater than

1.28 = 0.10

What is this z score?

Find a z-

z-value such that the probability of obtaining

a smaller z score = 0.25 Find the z-

z-score such that the probability

of a smaller z-

z-score = 0.25

NORMSINV(0.25) returns the z- z-score for

this probability

Area = 0.25

NORMSINV(0.25) = -0.67

The probability that a z-

z-score is less than

-0.67 = 0.25

What is this z-score?

PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 51 PubH 6414 Lesson 6 Part 1 52

The NORMINV function is used to return the x- x- SBP for men is normally distributed with

value for a specified area under any normal mean = 125 and standard deviation = 14

distribution curve. The mean and standard

deviation need to be specified with the Find the SBP value such that 10% of men

NORMINV function have a value higher than this

=NORMINV (area, ,) ,) will return the x-

x-value =NORMINV(.90, 125, 14) = 142.9

with the indicated area less than this X. 10% of men have SBP > 142.9

=NORMINV(1--area, ,)

=NORMINV(1 ,) will return the x-

x-value

with the indicated area greater than this X.

9

Human conception & the normal Using the 68% - 95% - 99.7%

curve approximation.

according to a distribution that is

approximately normal with mean 266 days

and standard deviation 16 days.

X ~ N(266, 16)

What percent of the data fall above What percent of the data fall below

266 days? 234 days?

1. 5% 1. 2.5%

2. 34% 2. 5%

3. 50% 3. 34%

4. 68% 4. 50%

5. 81.5% 5. 81.5%

What percent of the data fall The top 16% of pregnancies last

between 250 days and 298 days? approximately how many days?

2. 50% 2. 282 days

3. 68% 3. 298 days

4. 81.5% 4. 314 days

5. 95% 5. Cannot be

determined from

this information

10

WHICH EQUATION WILL GIVE YOU THE

The standard normal curve. RED SHADED AREA UNDER THE CURVE?

1. P(Z<1)

2. P(0<Z<1)

3. P(Z>1)

4. P(Z=1)

5. P(Z1)

WHICH EQUATION WILL GIVE YOU THE WHICH EQUATION WILL GIVE YOU THE

RED SHADED AREA UNDER THE CURVE? RED SHADED AREA UNDER THE CURVE?

1. P(Z<1) 1. P(Z2)

2. P(0<Z<1) 2. P(Z<--1)-

P(Z< 1)-P(Z<2)

3. P(Z>--1)

P(Z> 3. 1-P(Z<

P(Z<--1)

4. P(Z=--1)

P(Z= 4. P(Z<2)--P(Z

P(Z<2) P(Z--1)

5. P(Z--1)

P(Z 5. 1- P(Z

P(Z--2)

SOLVE FOR THE z* VALUE? Readings and Assignments

1. P(Z0.62)=z* Reading

Chapter 4 pgs. 76 80: Normal Distribution

2. P(Z>z*)=0.62

Lesson 6 Practice Exercises

3. 1-0.62=P(Z<z*)

Work through the Excel Module 6

4. P(Z<z*)=0.62

examples

5. 1- P(Zz*)= 0.62

Start Homework 4

11

- Excel TutorialUploaded bynandorg1113
- FR1 Chem 28.1 Expt 1Uploaded byMarrod Cruz
- Cp, Cpk, Cm, Cmk, Control LimitsUploaded byBruno Mauro
- Introduction to Samping DistributionsUploaded byAmna Adnan
- LAB4Uploaded byAditya Dev
- Assignment+1+SolutionsUploaded byHarisBeha
- 1Uploaded bySmart Z Here
- cheat1.pdfUploaded byThapelo Sebolai
- 08 Normal Dist 8 QnsUploaded byBenjamin Teo
- 2016 Student MAM Course Outline FinalUploaded byZhiLin Guo
- Normal +BionomialUploaded bypriyuu1
- Traducción Raul ProbaUploaded bypz10
- Basic StatisticsUploaded byPooja Nanda
- Cornell Psych 205: day04Uploaded byJames Yu
- Practice Exam 3 Fall 2018.pdfUploaded bypiyush raghav
- RRChapter17.pptUploaded byErwin Dwi Putra
- Hendriks 2015Uploaded byddarcy
- matpands.pdfUploaded byali
- 1_scheip04aUploaded byFrancisco Hidalgo
- Safety Stock ModelUploaded byPrabhaKanodia
- third revisionUploaded byapi-3759646
- Prob Portafolio 5Uploaded byDanielaPulidoLuna
- MeteorologyUploaded byCristhian Valladares
- Print Citi 02Uploaded byAakash Kunchwar
- lichi li presentation 1Uploaded byapi-284320398
- Arens14e_ch17_pptUploaded bySekar Ayu Kartika Sari
- RET560 Research Methods Course Material V01Uploaded byAliceAlormenu
- Lecture 4 (downloaded from net)Uploaded byMhairyn Anne Mendoza
- 203 NewtonUploaded byJose Antonio Villalobos
- Arens14e_ch17_ppt.pptUploaded byAsem Shaban

- Methods for Coordinating System Protective EquipmentUploaded byMichael Parohinog Gregas
- HIDROPONIK_SEDERHANA.pdfUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Vol3-11 Miscellaneous ElectricalUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- PCB Wizard - Professional Edition - And EJ610Uploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Karakteristik Kimia Dan Fisika Minyak Dan Kertas IsolasiUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Kesadahan AirUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Durga Saptasati EngUploaded bysignature 2589
- ATV 303 Parameter ListUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Ramya 150301062318 Conversion Gate02Uploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Teknik Pemeliharaan TransformatorUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Electric Motors and Variable Speed Drives Evaluation ToolUploaded byace-winnie
- DS BiscuitProcessing RVS 1214 ENGUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Sew Ie2 Motor DatasheetUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Insulation Resistance TestingUploaded bydenzil_1000
- Winct ManualUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Sitransl Lps200 Fi01 en Siemens Paddle SensorUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- NSK_CAT1.pdfUploaded byscout_mesn
- Ds Flourmilling Wamair 0115 EngUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Pxddamkey[9099]_PROFIBUS Health Checking-Andy VerwerUploaded bymaherianto 29
- Prakt Modul 14 Analisa QoSUploaded byAbdul Haris
- Checklist for WeighbridgeUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Week 2 PowerpointUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- sistem instrument elektronikUploaded bysopan sa
- MScommUploaded byNicolas Laverde
- Teknik Pemeliharaan TransformatorUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Rotondo Kepserver Setupmanual 98-9-3Uploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Rotondo Kepserver Setupmanual 98-9-3Uploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- DS BiscuitProcessing RVS 1214 ENGUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285
- Kx-ns300 Kx-ns1000 Sip Trunk CatUploaded bymuhamad.badar9285

- 3331_Muneeb Shamsi_ Islamic StudiesUploaded byMuneeb Shamsi
- Final SynopsisAMITYUploaded byVaneet Kumar
- why not unwind himUploaded byapi-254037274
- Capitalism Kritik ShellUploaded byIncoherency
- Peer Review for First Draft of the Research PaperUploaded byJustin Hancock
- 4 Social Revolutions(1)Uploaded bySze Yinn Pikaa
- journal alkoholismeUploaded byRini Resmina Pangaribuan
- President's Council of Bioethics - Controversies in the Determination of DeathUploaded bypreghieraperlavita
- International Body PsicotherapyUploaded byeliza_tabares
- Different Roles of Product Appearance in Consumer ChoiceUploaded byMaunish Thakkar
- Car Crash SimulationUploaded byKhadeejah Ahmed
- optimization problemsUploaded byArlan Rodrigo
- Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs TheoryUploaded bySakib Âhmed
- Designing and using research questionnairesUploaded byVic Key
- 1-s2.0-S0167404815001017-main.pdfUploaded byMichał Paliński
- Translated USSR ReportUploaded bySoul_420
- Mortal CoilUploaded byLuigi Antonio González
- 1637Uploaded bythink0910
- 5 - Transactional AnalysisUploaded byAslam Soni
- COOK, Deborah_Adorno, Ideology AndUploaded byEAJ
- Diversity LsnUploaded byFizza Wazir
- Randall J. Strossen - Captains of Crush Grippers What They Are and How to Close Them - 2003Uploaded byAli Aliiev
- Mini Case Study 8.15 (1)Uploaded byAlisa Bisop
- The space travel of the pharaohUploaded byAjmal Beg
- inside the jokes.pdfUploaded bybigblue99
- 2161-1122-4-263Uploaded bySahrish Iqbal
- Reflection Report- IKEAUploaded byAbdulmalik Abdalla
- The Hundred Most Influential Books Since the WarUploaded byMiodrag Mijatovic
- The Cambridge Companion to Mahler - 2 - The Literary and Philosophical WorldsUploaded bySimon Hunt
- Aesthetic Communication in DanceUploaded byAnonymous ZSmSZErTqt