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Social cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen mobility in
Europe

Carmen Cantuarias-Villessuzanne a,*, Benno Weinberger a,
Leonardo Roses b, Alexis Vignes a, Jean-Marc Brignon a
a
INERIS, Parc Technologique ALATA BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte, France
b
HyGear B.V., Industry Park De Kleefse Waard, Arnhem, The Netherlands

article info abstract

Article history: The deployment of hydrogen technologies in the energy mix and the use of hydrogen fuel
Received 29 February 2016 cell vehicles (FCV) are expected to significantly reduce European greenhouse emissions. We
Received in revised form carry out a social cost-benefit analysis to estimate the period of socio-economic conver-
22 July 2016 sion, period for which the replacement of gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles
Accepted 26 July 2016 (ICEV) by FCV becomes socio-economically profitable. In this study, we considered a
Available online xxx hydrogen production mix of five technologies: natural gas reforming processes with or
without carbon capture and storage, electrolysis, biogas processes and on-site production.
Keywords: We estimate two external costs: the abatement cost of CO2 through FCV and the use of
Hydrogen economy non-renewable resources in the manufacture of fuel cells by measuring platinum deple-
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles tion. We forecast that carbon market could finance approximately 10% of the deployment
Social cost-benefit analysis cost of hydrogen-based transport and that an early economic conversion could be targeted
External costs for FCV. Almost ten years could be saved by considering externalities.
Carbon abatement cost © 2016 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Platinum depletion

(i) Market requirements for hydrogen as energy carrier is
Introduction tackled by the following points: competitive price compared to
other environmentally friendly energy carrier like batteries;
Several studies have explored the potential technological in- refueling infrastructure permitting the autonomy range
novations, the associated economic conditions and prospec- required by users; fast and easy storage process enabling a
tive scenarios for the deployment of new power-trains in great autonomy for mobility; and safety levels equal to or
Europe [1e5]. better than carbonized energy sources. Acceptance of this
Hydrogen requires a comprehensive support scheme that new use of hydrogen is also related to its safety. Though the
bridges the gap between three main dimensions: (i) market different accidental risks of hydrogen are well known, the
requirements, (ii) sustainability and climate requirements, risks related to the industrial use and the private use of
and (iii) hydrogen technology development [6].

Abbreviations: CBA, cost-benefit analysis; CCS, carbon capture and storage; ETP, Energy technology perspectives; FCV, fuel cell ve-
hicles; HRS, hydrogen refueling stations; ICEV, internal combustion engine vehicles; LCA, life cycle assessment; NPV, net present value;
SMR, steam methane reforming; SNPV, social net present value; TCO, total cost of ownership.
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: carmen.cantuarias@ineris.fr (C. Cantuarias-Villessuzanne).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2016.07.213
0360-3199/© 2016 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: Cantuarias-Villessuzanne C, et al., Social cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen mobility in Europe, In-
ternational Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2016.07.213

[7].18]. and (iii) use of noble materials like platinum in fuel cells and electro. Lastly. et al. eg. We included the carbon abatement cost of hydrogen energy should enable to reduce greenhouse gas on the deployment net present values. these impacts should be appropri- ropean Commission and the different Member States. transport fuel that carbon market could finance. To fulfill this requirement sults.7 kg H2 per 100 km in Methodological framework 2050 [7]. The ETP 2014 forecasts the percentage of hydrogen used Given the challenges of the hydrogen market for mobility. to the compression and high cost regarding the safety re- New acquisitions of passenger light cars (ICEV) in Europe1 will quirements for high pressure equipment. and (ii) Sustainability and climate requirements for hydrogen computes in monetary units the impacts on a project. 80 km in the “optimistic” scenario. the social net present value (SNPV) and the year of social Today the standardized storage pressure is 35 MPa and conversion. Even if platinum loading per FCV has significantly been components and ensure that where possible these are reused. The use for three scenarios. The forecasted hydrogen demand is plotted external costs such as carbon abatement cost and platinum in Fig. The methodological framework is based on the CBA of German market conducted by Creti et al. conclusions daily driven distances in different European countries [19]: are drawn in section 4. for FCV for the period 2015e2030.ijhydene. The section 3. Italy.2 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y x x x ( 2 0 1 6 ) 1 e8 hydrogen cannot be compared. For this reason. depletion. and finally increase the energy effi.07. The trend is a slow introduction of The following sections deal with the assumptions.2016. mobile market [13e15]. Germany and costs and benefits to society as a whole. While high pressure is FCV during the period 2015e2055. the ately priced. abatement cost of carbon through FCV and various hydrogen 2 We work with data that assumes actions to limit global production process and their cost. for this mineral will continue rising [10]. we consider external costs related to the con- conform to existing legal requirements like measures to pre. allowing us to esti- article presents a social cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework to mate the number of FCV during the analyzed period. in order to consider the 3 Poland and Spain are in the first group. 70 MPa.1. Regarding ciency by 20%. The assess the progressive replacement of gasoline ICEV by hydrogen demand of FCVs is estimated according the next points: FCV in the European market over the period 2015e2055. year 2015 is taken as the start time when FCV enters auto- First. highlights environmental-social benefits and costs. 2020 package is a set of binding legislation to ensure the EU The social benefits are estimated in terms of carbon prices meets its climate and energy targets for the year 2020. The social CBA is performed in section 3.org/10. They analyze the 1 There were 11. we France in the second.doi. this as alternative transport fuel in Europe.2 ing high energy autonomy. reduced and platinum recycling rate increases. Social cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen mobility in Europe. http://dx. A social CBA not have the same restrictions as professional users.2 presents the project [17.3 We consider three scenarios3 according to the average providing final results and discussions.3. Furthermore hydrogen cars have also to be social costs. sumption of non-renewable resources [9] to manufacture fuel vent and limit waste from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) and their cells. POLES model and PROTEC H2 computed in section 3. It is composed of three steps: (i) the economic com- the technology development targets to lower or replace the parison via the TCO.213 . 1 presents the social CBA framework in terms of mass-market in hydrogen mobility requires reduced cost of underlying assumptions. in order to estimate the emissions by 20% (from 1990 levels). we assume a complete important for high energy density it implies high costs related replacement until 2055 in buying a FCV instead of an ICEV. We extend their analysis warming to 2 C. Please cite this article in press as: Cantuarias-Villessuzanne C. the tendency is almost 70 MPa for passenger cars while it is only 35 MPa for buses as reflected by the European directive on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure Hydrogen demand of FCV in Europe making reference to the technical specification ISO/TS 20100 To achieve the economic and social comparison of ICEV and Gaseous hydrogen fueling stations. 2.8 millions of vehicles in 2013 in EUe28 [11]. also enable 20% of EU share of the transition costs to hydrogen as an alternative energy to be renewable. (iii) Concerning the hydrogen technology development. (ii) the external cost estimation.1.2 and supply in 2. The final re- lysers. because the private users do refer to CBA as social cost-benefit analysis [8]. to include external costs in Europe. positives and negatives. we present the social CBA framework in section 2. the United Kingdom is in the third. the demand recycled or recovered. New storage mate- be replaced by the FCV following the trends of Energy Tech- rials like hydrides or storage vessels working with cryo- nology Perspectives (ETP) 2014 estimated by the International compressed hydrogen could lower these costs by maintain- Energy Agency [12]. Other important assumptions are the FCV specifications Materials and methods based on commercial information: (i) a vehicle efficiency of 0..95 kg H2 per 100 km in 2015 and of 0. The eco- market share starting around 2035 [16]. intermediate values and final re- cars and hydrogen fueling stations. as predicted by the nomic comparison by the total cost of ownership (TCO) is European projects HyWays [1]. followed by an important hydrogen demand in section 2. Fig. Furthermore the technology development is drawn by sults consist of two indicators that take into account the need of higher storage density (meaning higher autonomy external costs of carbon abatement and platinum depletion: range) and simultaneously to obtain lower storage pressures. and 40 km in the “conservative” scenario. the social-economic comparison (social CBA). (ii) a driving range of approximately 600 km per fill-up [20] and (iii) a vehicle lifetime of 10 years. 60 km in the “moderate” scenario. both energy have to fit the political objectives initiated by the Eu.1016/j. In- ternational Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2016).

18]. Social cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen mobility in Europe. In- ternational Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2016). the deployment of hydrogen-based transport raises new challenges for production infrastructures that need to evolve towards flexible small scale on-site production facilities.213 . the tions for hydrogen supply will foster carbon-neutral processes number of HRS is a linear estimation from the hydrogen de- with significant hydrogen production by electrolysis of water mand determined for each of the three scenarios. First. The production mix includes: SMR process from natural gas. This electrolysis vehicle is reduced as the fleet of FCV increases. This production mix was developed during exchanges with experts and industrial leaders during the Eu- ropean project DEMCAMER. decrease from 10% to 8% of the capital cost [7]. water electrolysis. However. by cleaner alternatives [21]. The French law [22] is the cost includes HRS infrastructure cost and HRS operating and main driver of this energy transition and we assume there will maintenance cost for the period analyzed. The capital cost per be similar drivers at the European scale. 1 e Social cost-benefit analysis framework FCV vs. Five hydrogen production technologies are considered in the present study. annual operating and maintenance cost should sition technology. [21] and a daily storage capacity of 100 kg of H2. Source: authors. Secondly. 2 e Hydrogen demand to FCV in EUe28. see Fig. which corresponds to the refilling of 25 vehicles per day The supply scenario is constructed by two main assumptions. i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y x x x ( 2 0 1 6 ) 1 e8 3 Fig. The associated costs are shown in Fig.1016/j. 3. The SMR is considered as a tran.doi. development would be supported by the surplus of European electricity. SMR with biogas and SMR on-site type station.2016. http://dx. 4.ijhydene. Hydrogen supply and production mix in Europe hydrogen refueling stations (HRS) are designed to 50 Nm3/h of H2 . It is considered that on-site production at the Fig.07. The optimization of intermittent energy flow generated by renewable sources could be used to reduce electrolysis cost. Please cite this article in press as: Cantuarias-Villessuzanne C. The capital using renewable energy sources.org/10. ICEV.. we assume that long-term solu. SMR with carbon capture and storage (CCS). the current dominance of steam methane reforming The capital cost per HRS with on-site production is ex- (SMR) process from natural gas will be progressively replaced pected to decrease from kV1500 in 2015 to kV700 in 2050. Source: [17. Lastly. et al. Moreover.

. considers the costs over the lifetime of a vehicle.9 per kg H2 by SMR from natural gas. variation of CO2 avoided per vehicle is estimated. consid- ering that gasoline price growth rate decrease from 5.213 . Under the moderate sce- nario.org/10. where the abatement cost ACt is the minimum avoided carbon price for the year t and DCt is the total deployment cost of DTCOt ¼ DCart ½FCV  ICEV þ DRunt ½FCV  ICEV þ Invest (1) hydrogen-based transport. The total cost include infrastructure cost and vehicle lifetime cost and hydrogen production mix. the main expenses on infrastructure will follow from 2020 to 2035 and then the period 2030 to 2050 will be characterized by signifi- cant surplus as the FCV fleet increases. the cash flow is compensated approximately by 2052. The delta cost of TCO per vehicle starts at a very high level. variation of TCO. from kV 14 in 2025 to kV 8 in 2035 and converges in 2052.93 SMR þ CCS 2. 4 e Fuel cost by type of hydrogen production 2015e2055 in EUe28. Our aim is to estimate the lowest carbon price For the present study. around kV 49 in 2015. This is an advantage for FCV. Secondly. we use life cycle assessment purchase price Cart (the sum of all costs to deliver the (LCA) studies [24e26] for the emissions of the hydrogen pro- assembled vehicle to the customer) and running cost Runt duction mix (see Table 1) and emissions of the ICEV4. Firstly. This economic comparison is the difference be. spread from 2015 to 2055. The (fuel cost and maintenance cost per vehicle) and infrastruc.09 Source: [24e26]. to 3% in 2040 and 1. The total deployment cost of hydrogen-based transport 4 These LCA values are not the most appropriate ones in this DCt is the variation of TCO multiplied by the number of cars.doi. 4) is compensated by the efficiency of FCV. These are values from different considering the moderate scenario. Fig. infrastructure cost on HRS declines rapidly from kV 9 in 2015 to about kV 2 in 2021. ment cost of CO2 for the substitution of all cars is computed by tween buying a FCV including the infrastructure needed and equation 2 the conventional case of buying an ICEV. The Source: authors. see equation (1). External costs FCV fleet as a carbon abatement option Results and discussion The climate change impacts avoided by hydrogen-based transport are evaluated via the abatement cost of carbon.54 Electrolysis from renewable energy 0. we evaluate the literature sources and relevant to the USA context. Source: authors. 3 e Hydrogen production mix 2015e2055 in EUe28. specific analysis but they are used as preliminary values because Hereafter. emissions. including To evaluate carbon emissions. and progressively drops Fig. Please cite this article in press as: Cantuarias-Villessuzanne C. Lastly. The abate- ture on HRS. Economic comparison of FCV and ICEV This includes the whole deployment as an investment. The relative high cost of hydrogen production (in 2015: V 8 per kg H2 by electrolysis and V 2. Social cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen mobility in Europe.1016/j. Results of the conservative and optimistic scenarios are detailed in Appendix A.23 SMR on-site 9. H2 technology and transport Carbon emissions (kg CO2 per kg H2 ) SMR þ natural gas 9. the TCO of the replacement ICEV by FCV needed to make hydrogen FCV profitable. the economic comparison is performed by of the lack of European studies.07.5% in 2050 [23]. the year of economic conversion is the moment at which the total cost of FCV is equal to the total cost of ICEV for the period analyzed.00 Pipeline or road transport to market 1.42 SMR þ biogas 2.4 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y x x x ( 2 0 1 6 ) 1 e8 Table 1 e Carbon emissions of different hydrogen technologies. In- ternational Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2016). We compute the DCt variation of TCO and the investment Invest on infrastructure ACt ¼ (2) DCO2 for HRS per unit of car in the market.2016. et al.ijhydene. see Fig.4% in 2020. in a fleet of hydrogen vehicles that abate The economic comparison is evaluated by the TCO method [3]. http://dx.

transport. the market size of FCV of the moderate of platinum extracted. automobile. This is the first step in the at 2 millions tons CO2 in 2015. (year) (year) Conservative 2054 2046 Social-economic comparison Moderate 2052 2040 Optimistic 2049 2038 The present social cost-benefit analysis of FCV vs. the mineral depletion is the total The social net present values are computed for each sce- rent generated by the natural resource [9]. [10] analyze the cost of platinum in future FCV considering platinum prices. using [30]’s average estimates: USD scenario. Please cite this article in press as: Cantuarias-Villessuzanne C. The mineral depletion is the change in stock high global marginal abatement costs for CO2 as well as the value of the mineral resources. Fig. We computed as the market price minus the marginal extraction find that the social balance is positive including also platinum cost of platinum. nearly 600 metric tons by 2050. [29]. and includes the jewelry.1016/j. Table 4 summaries the estimates. other scenarios on the supplementary data in Appendix A. we assume a progressive reduction of platinum use for FCV down to All external costs are measured under the assumptions of 10e15 g of platinum in 2050. taking into account the carbon abatement cost and Table 2 e Years of conversion in social cost-benefit the platinum depletion we found that while the former usu. The recycling supply shown the impact of carbon abatement on the FCV deploy- creates a counter balance of the depletion effect.. each gram of platinum extracted is depleting at pects.org/10. Mineral depletion is nario over the social discount rate s of 5% [27]. et al. the hydrogen production mix (Section Hydrogen supply and As of today. The net present value NPV of total deployment evaluation. At this point in time the FCV and ICEV CO2 in 2015 and avoided greenhouse emissions are estimated will have the same lifetime cost. Alonso [30] analyzed scarcity and recycling depletion. Equation (3) defines SNPV and scarcity rents to encourage higher primary extraction rates.94) as the market price and USD 31. carbon abatement cost by mistic scenario) or in 2052 (moderate scenario) or in 2054 using FCV is estimated to be approximately V 18 per ton eq. Overall. these two Scenario Economic conversion Social conversion external costs are quantitatively close. The results show Next. ICEV consumes 5. ICEV pro- Source: authors. chemical industry. [31] from 2020 to 2050 (see Table 3).44. electronics. Sun et al. It includes low and platinum depletion. Social cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen mobility in Europe. 2). The economic comparison by TCO converges in 2049 (opti- Based on the moderate scenario.2016.213 . glass and other industries. (conservative scenario). It is also expected that insufficient Social net present value (SNPV) platinum supply and expensive platinum would be a barrier to Under more ambitious carbon prices estimated by ETP 2015 widespread commercialization of hydrogen FCV [10]. carbon abatement cost for two different prices and the plat- inum depletion) is valued to approximately 2010 V 18 per gram inum depletion vs. Each FCV X n   1 contains approximately from 30 to 40 g of platinum in 2015. http://dx. it would also be important to consider other as- inum. ICEV. Creti et al. they underline that carbon Platinum depletion estimated by net price method is market could partially finance the infrastructure for FCV.6 (2010 V 41. generating net savings for Europe.ijhydene. another external cost (platinum depletion).6 g of platinum per vehicle. demand and supply. [7] have troleum. ally gets much more attention than the latter. model of increasing scarcity. and represents about 8% of the deployment cost in 2015.91) as the marginal cost of extraction of one gram of plat. ment in the case of Germany. analysis of FCV vs. Platinum depletion is considered constant over the studied period. pe. Air quality in Europe and related health impacts 2015 V 19. we expect this quantity to remain stable during the analyzed Discussion period. moreover given the maturity of the technology involved. 55. net savings resulting from the replacement of ICEV by FCV fast growth in demand of minerals results in high estimated during the period analyzed.7 (2010 V To extend the present social CBA of hydrogen-based 23.07. In conclusion. i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y x x x ( 2 0 1 6 ) 1 e8 5 The carbon price at the end of the period is actualized to The year of social conversion 2015 at the social discount rate of 5% [27]. Moreover. Platinum has a very high recycling rate for different uses in Our work extends [7] in the case of Europe. Hence. vides two main results. 5 plots the rates of platinum over a 50-year period. See carbon price estimates for the grated for each year. which is three times the cur- rent platinum supply. including external costs enable to save about 10 years in the time needed to reach the conversion Platinum depletion time for the full deployment of hydrogen-based transport (see We assessed that the required platinum amount could reach Table 2). in each scenario the benefits of carbon abatement by that a carbon market could finance approximately 10% of the hydrogen vehicles and costs by platinum depletion are inte- hydrogen deployment cost. The net price (plat.doi. SNPV ¼ ðDCÞt þ ACt  ðDCO2 Þt  PDt  ðDPtÞt (3) t¼0 ð1 þ sÞt Based on the works of Calle-Vallejo et al. In the theoretical economic platinum depletion estimated before. deployment cost is V 382 millions in 2015. we estimate a social cash We take into account the scarcity of minerals by measuring flow of introducing FCV to replace ICEV. In- ternational Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2016). production mix in Europe and Fig. They represent commonly evaluated by the net price method [28].

In addition.6 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y x x x ( 2 0 1 6 ) 1 e8 268 WG 5 hydrogen refueling station in order to take into ac- Table 3 e Future CO2 prices in EU-28 (V per ton eq.doi. make full fuel cycle assessments of different hydrogen pro. Finland and the in order to facilitate the introduction of different hydrogen Netherlands among others reformed existing ad valorem taxes technologies to markets and enable interoperability with the on new cars to affect relative prices of cars by emissions level existing infrastructure and appliance providing an enhanced and to constitute a leverage effect to promote low-emission protection of users. 2020 2030 2040 2050 This social CBA includes key assumptions that require Low carbon price 30 80 120 140 further attention. The California Energy Com. Please cite this article in press as: Cantuarias-Villessuzanne C. Therefore the directive takes emission vehicles. under the moderate scenario as- mission [34] supported a significant life cycle assessment sumptions. and air pollution cells.07. By including external costs. European countries have started to internalize external- Related to risks.. other external costs could be evaluated such as noise benefits and social acceptance of hydrogen risks. et al. To reach this objective.213 . Today. French law on the Energy Transition for Green Growth and the structure making technical specifications for hydrogen refu. as versiondthe profitability horizondcould be shortened by performed in the USA routes. Social cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen mobility in Europe. internalizing carbon price could finance approxi- determined on a “well-to-wheels” basis. emissions. it is necessary to generation of positive social net present values. The present study integrates societal benefits for the reduc- tion of greenhouse gas emissions and social costs for the in- crease of platinum consumption in the manufacture of fuel demand ambitious climate policies [32. fuel cycle emissions and vehicle 2055. 5 e External costs in the moderate scenario (millions 2015 V). This is in the scope of European directive vehicles [35]. Table 4 e Social net present value (SNPV) (Millions V). related decree (under preparation) defining the criteria of low- eling points for vehicles.33]. CO2 ). further standardization is also necessary ities for mobility using regulations. Scenarios Low carbon price High carbon price Conservative 3 8 Moderate 20 30 Conclusions Optimistic 45 62 Source: authors. extended analysis of other Source: [31]. which includes fuel mately 10% of the hydrogen-based transport from 2015 to production and distribution. In- ternational Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2016). Source: authors. economic benefits of the avoided by hydrogen FCV should be included in further social replacement of ICEV by FCV were highlighted as well as the cost-benefit analysis.ijhydene. count safety aspects. Another initiative is the recent release of the 2014/94/EU on the deployment of alternative fuels infra.2016. about 10 years. hydrogen production configuration would improve robust- ness of this model. Fig. This decree includes electric battery and reference to several standards actually developed by the CEN hydrogen vehicles. http://dx. This study suggests that the year of future economic con- duction considering the European energy production mix.org/10.1016/j. Our results are quite sensitive to the High carbon price 50 100 140 170 hydrogen production mix.

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