3 views

Uploaded by Sen Hu

snow density

snow density

© All Rights Reserved

- MAT 540 Statistical Concepts for Research
- QTM Regression Analysis Ch4 RSH
- Manual PLA 2.0
- Exam 1 - Econometrics
- 11 Regression
- microeconometría bancaria
- bbs13e_chapter13
- ewan
- Financial Management Information System 2018
- MCC 201 Assignment Winter 2012
- Cheat Sheet Final
- Performance Factor Impact on Profitability of Cementmanufacturing Sector in Pakistan
- System Identification Curve Fitting
- Methods for Analyzing Electric Load Shape and Its Variability
- m.e Economic Model
- Regression and Correlation
- Novi Dara Utami
- Paper - The Boyle’s Law Simulator, A Dynamic Interactive Visualization - S A Sinex - 2008.pdf
- regresi spss pdf.pdf
- LABA ASET

You are on page 1of 11

Published online in Wiley InterScience

(www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/met.40

Review

Predicting snow density using meteorological data

Vivian Melysund,a,b *Bernt Leira,c Karl V. Hisethb and Kim Robert Lisa,d

a SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, PO Box 124, Blindern, NO-0314 Oslo, Norway

b Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Department of Structural Engineering, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway

c NTNU, Department of Marine Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway

d NTNU, Department of Civil and Transport Engineering, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a simple method for predicting snow density by use of weather data. Six hundred and

eight snow density (bulk weight density) measurements from the period 19671986 are used in a multiple regression

analysis. The measurements are performed at 105 sites in the As area situated in Akershus County in southeast Norway.

The area has a relatively stable winter climate. Weather data from an observing station with three registrations a day are

used in the analyses. The distance between the measurement sites and the meteorological station varied between 0.6 and

14 km. A clear correlation is found between the observed climate and the measured snow density. A multiple regression

equation is developed with a coefficient of determination equal to 70% and a standard deviation equal to 24 kgm3 . Snow

density values suggested in the Norwegian code NS 3491-3 is in most cases overestimated. Expressions given in an annex

to the international regulations for snow loading on roofs (ISO 4355) are less applicable to prescribing snow density

for climate studied in this investigation. Still, they can be used as simple and rough estimates. Copyright 2007 Royal

Meteorological Society

KEY WORDS buildings; density measurements; Norway; meteorological data; snow; snow loads; structural design

Received 26 October 2006; Revised 31 August 2007; Accepted 26 September 2007

should be used to improve the national maps for snow

1.1. Principal objectives and scope

load on the ground. This will require detailed informa-

The principal objective of the current paper is to describe tion of snow density depending on geographical loca-

a methodology for the prediction of snow density (bulk tion and climate during the period of snow accumula-

weight density) by means of weather data. In Norway, the tion.

snow depth is measured at 540 meteorological stations Advanced calculation models that have been developed

during winter, typically by the use of a yardstick. The in geophysics and hydrology can be used to calculate

associated snow load, on the ground, is then calculated by snow density and the associated loading with a higher

means of a simple assumption of snow density (Table I). degree of accuracy than the method proposed in this paper

Snow loads on ground are used as a basis to estimate (for instance, multi-layered models; Loth and Graf, 1998;

snow loads on roofs, according to the Norwegian code Xue et al., 2003). The use of advanced models demands

NS 3491-3 Design of structures - Design actions - Part a thorough knowledge of the weather and geophysical

3: Snow loads (Standards Norway, 2001). The code processes in order to calculate realistic time series of

contains the recommended values for snow load on the snow loads during the winter season. The objective of

ground for all municipalities in the country. the current study is to develop a method for predict-

Because of the extreme differences in local climate ing characteristic snow density based on simple weather

and topography, a large variation in snow loads on the parameters. The method should provide sufficiently accu-

ground can be observed within short distances in Norway. rate results for structural engineering purposes, without

NS 3491-3 does not take this variability into account. the use of advanced software.

As a result, many buildings are designed with a doubt- Scenarios for future climate change indicate both

ful estimation of characteristic snow load on the ground. increased winter precipitation and increased temperatures

Adequate equipment for surveillance of snow depths, in (McCarthy et al., 2001; Karl and Trenberth, 2003; reg-

clim.met.no; Benestad, 2005). A realistic estimation of

characteristic loads is, therefore, even more important

* Correspondence to: Vivian Melysund, SINTEF Building and Infras-

tructure, PO Box 124, Blindern, NO-0314 Oslo, Norway. than before. In addition, predicting snow density by use

E-mail: vivian.meloysund@sintef.no of weather data makes it possible to evaluate also the

414 V. MELYSUND ET AL.

Table I. Bulk weight density of snow according to EN 1991-1-3 previously published and were included in his work

and NS 3491-3 (settled snow is measured several hours or days related to shape coefficients for roof snow loads (Hib,

after its fall; old snow several weeks or months after its fall). 1988). The work of Hib supported the changes in

shape coefficients for pitched roofs given in EN 1991-1-1

Type of Bulk weight Eurocode 1 Actions on structures Part 13: General

snow density (kg m3 )

actions Snow loads (European Committee for Stan-

Fresh 100 dardization, 2003), on which the equivalent Norwegian

Settled 200 code NS 3491-3 (Standards Norway, 2001) is based.

Old 250350

Wet 400 1.2. Background

If the temperature during snowfall is well below the freez-

effects of climate changes with respect to roof snow loads ing point, the snow typically has a rather low density.

in different parts of the country. Snow falling at higher temperatures usually has a consid-

The focus on climate has increased the interest in mete- erably higher density. After a snowfall, metamorphism,

orological monitoring that should be used for predicting compaction and wind action will increase the density.

snow loads. The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy The process when water condenses in the cold outer

Directorate (NVE) and the Norwegian Meteorological layer of the snow cover and causes snow crystals to grow

Institute, for instance, are developing geographic infor- is called temperature gradient metamorphism. Equitem-

mation system (GIS) based snow maps of snow water perature metamorphism is a result of local differences

equivalent (percentage of normal, millimetres and rank) in vapour pressure due to crystal geometry and causes

for Norway (Engeset et al., 2004). In their calculations, growth of ice bonds by sintering and strong cohesion

spatial estimation of temperature and precipitation is used between crystals. Gravitation forces compact the snow

in combination with observations from the Norwegian cover; i.e. the larger the depth, the higher the compaction.

meteorological network. A snow model with 1 1 km2 Strong winds will make snow crystals divide and the

and one-day resolution is used. Maps are produced daily snow cover becomes more densely packed. See Som-

and presented to users by web- and GIS-based interfaces. merfeld and LaChapelle (1970); Langham (1981) and

In addition, an archive of daily grid data from the winter Pomeroy et al. (1998) for further information on these

of 1962 is available (www.met.no). processes.

In the Norwegian code, NS 3491-3, the snow load on The mean density of snow, as given in NS 3491-3 and

a roof, s (kg m2 ), is defined as: EN 1991-1-3 (European Committee for Standardization,

2003), is shown in Table I. The table shows that the time

s = Ce Ct sk (1) since snowfall has a major impact on the density. In

addition, the density of wet snow is given.

where sk (kg m2 ) is the snow load on the ground, In an informative annexe to ISO 4355 Bases for design

represents the snow load shape coefficient accounting for of structures Determination of snow loads on roofs

undrifted and drifted snow load arrangements depending (International Organization for Standardization, 1998),

on the roof shape, Ce is the exposure coefficient, which two alternative methods for calculating snow density are

concerns reduction or increase of snow load as a fraction proposed. These are based on formulae from the former

of ground snow load due to wind exposure and Ct is USSR and Japan. In the former USSR the following

the thermal coefficient defining the reduction of snow expression was used to calculate the density of snow,

load as a function of heat flux through the roof. An (kg m3 ):

equivalent expression can be found in ISO 4355 Bases

= (90 + 130 d)(1.5 + 0.17 T )(1 + 0.1 v)

3

(2)

on roofs (International Organization for Standardization,

where d is the snow depth (m), T is the mean temperature

1998). In NS 3491-3, snow loads on the ground (50-

( C) during the period of snow accumulation and is the

year return period) are specified for the centres of all 434

average wind velocity (ms1 ) in the same period. Another

municipalities in Norway. Rules are given for increasing

formula for the snow density (kg m3 ), which is derived

these values depending on the height of the ground above

from empirical investigations in Japan reads:

sea level at a building site compared with that of the

municipal centre. In particular cases, the code allows for =A d +B (3)

using other reliable sources to assess the ground snow

load, for instance, when the snow load has been measured where d is the snow depth (m). A and B are constants

near the building site for at least 20 years. influenced by the mean temperature of the snow zone

In this paper, snow density and snow depth measure- during the accumulation season.

ments performed by Professor Halvor Hib at the former ISO 4355 also describes a relationship between snow

Agricultural University of Norway (now the Norwegian load (50-year return period) and snow depth used in the

University of Life Sciences, UMB) during the period USA:

19661986 are used. These measurements have not been s50 = 1.91(d50 )1.33 (4)

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

PREDICTING SNOW DENSITY USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA 415

where s50 is the snow load (kPa) on the ground and d50 Table II. Mean temperatures, mean wind velocities, total pre-

is the snow depth (m) on the ground, both with return cipitation amounts and maximum snow depths in January in

periods of 50 years. Equation (4) takes into account that the area of As for the measurement period 19671986 and the

the maximum ground snow load does not necessarily reference 30-year period 19611990.

occur on the same day as the maximum ground snow

Year Temperature Wind Precipitation Snow

depth (according to ISO 4355).

( C) velocity (mm) depth

In Pomeroy et al. (1998) recommendations are given (m s1 ) (cm)

with respect to density of new and aged snow. For

fresh snow, the expression developed by Hedstrom and 1968 7.7 1.6 33 63

Pomeroy (1998) is recommended: 1969 3.5 1.7 93 74

1970 8.2 1.3 24 28

s = 67.9 + 51.3eT /2.6 (5) 1971 2.6 1.4 56 3

1972 6.8 1.5 19 18

where T is the temperature ( C). For aged wind-blown 1977 5.0 1.6 70 51

snow covers with snow depths above 60 cm, Pomeroy 1978 2.3 2.0 54 47

et al. (1998) recommend an expression for the density 1980 7.6 1.3 24 34

1981 3.7 1.5 13 11

on the basis of investigations of Shook and Gray (1994)

1982 9.2 1.8 24 56

and Tabler et al. (1990): 1984 5.2 2.6 89 28

20 470 1985 9.6 1.4 41 40

s = 450 + (1 ed/67.3 ) (6) 1986 7.7 2.2 62 48

d 19611990 4.8 49

where s is the mean snow density (kg m3 ) and d is

snow depth (cm). For smaller snow depths, Pomeroy

et al. (1998) report a small covariance between depth and (Table III). No measurement was done in winters with

density (Shook and Gray, 1994). maximum snow loads on ground below approximately

40 kg m2 . Snow density measurements were done by

using a sharp-edged tube with internal cross-section of

2. Measurements 80 cm2 . The snow inside the tube was weighed and the

In the period 19661986, Professor Halvor Hib at density was calculated. Verification tests showed that the

UMB performed depth and density measurements of measurements were accurate within 1% (Hib, 1988).

snow on ground at 105 sites in the area of As (As is Weather observations and measurements are performed

situated in Akershus County in the southeast of Norway). by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute three times a

The distances between the measurement sites and the day [local time 0800, 1300 and 1900 {coordinated univer-

meteorological station in the area vary between 0.6 and sal time (UTC) +1}] at a meteorological station (climate

14 km. The area has a relatively stable winter climate weather station) in As. Air temperatures are measured

(moist mid-latitude climate with cold winters according 2 m above the ground with an accuracy of 0.1 C. In

to the Koppen Climate Classification System). The mean addition, minimum, maximum and mean temperatures

temperatures, mean wind velocities, total precipitation

amounts and maximum snow depths (as registered at the

meteorological station in the area) are given in Table II. Table III. Number of snow density measurements in each

In addition, the table contains monthly mean temperature measurement year.

and maximum precipitation amount for January in the

reference period 19611990. There are large variations Winter No. of

in maximum snow depths, precipitation amounts and season measurements

mean temperatures for winter seasons. Owing to the hilly

19671968 100

topography in the As area, both precipitation amounts and

19681969 115

wind velocities may have large local variations. Large 19691970 150

weather systems from the south-east and the simultaneous 19701971 6

low atmospheric pressure often result in snowfall and 19711972 35

wind in this area. The highest wind velocities are 19761977 70

normally in the north-west direction, but these are seldom 19771978 53

accompanied by snowfall (Nordli, 2000). 19791980 10

The measurements of Hib were carried out at the 19801981 3

time of maximum snow depths. The registrations were 19811982 29

not done at exactly the same time every year; however, 19831984 6

most of the data were usually collected in mid-February 19841985 13

19851986 18

(earliest measurement in week no. 3 and latest in week

Sum 608

no. 12). A total of 608 measurements were carried out

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

416 V. MELYSUND ET AL.

between the observations are registered at the meteo- more to the total value of the parameters than the climate

rological station. At each observation time, the 10-min during small snowfalls.

mean wind velocity, v, is measured 10 m above the

ground, together with the average wind direction. As vsnow = Psnow vprec (8)

shown in Section 3, the wind velocities (three observa- t

tions a day) are used to calculate mean wind velocities RHsnow = Psnow RH (9)

for the snow cover. Precipitation (mm water equivalent) t

is measured once a day (local time 0800, UTC + 1).

The accuracy of the precipitation measurements (e.g. due where Psnow is the amount of precipitation as snow

to catchment errors) is not evaluated. Relative humid- (in mm water equivalent), t is the age of the snow

ity (RH) and air pressure, p, are measured three times cover (total number of observations) and RH is the

per day. Air pressure was measured with an accuracy of relative air humidity (in %). vprec is the mean wind

0.1 hPa. Snow depth, d, was measured by use of a yard- velocity in the observation period (in m s1 ) when it is

stick once per day (local time 0800, UTC + 1). This is simultaneously snowing. The threshold temperature for

a measure of the accumulated snow depth (not only pre- whether the precipitation falls as rain or snow is set to

cipitation as snow since last measurement). The weather 1.4 C, according to Skaugen (1998).

at the observation time and between observations is also Between snowfalls many climate parameters influence

registered three times per day. The meteorological data the density of the snow. At high wind velocities snow

are obtained from www.met.no particles are drifting: fdrift is defined as the number of

times the wind velocity, v, has exceeded 4 m s1 and the

snow is in such a condition that it may drift:

3. Analyses

fdrift = f (v > 4 m s1 ) (10)

Multiple regression analyses are suitable in order to

predict snow density by use of weather data. The analyses where f is the number, or frequency, of wind velocities,

are based on a function of the following type: v, above the limit (10 min wind velocity recorded three

times per day). The parameter, vmean , represents the mean

y = 0 + 1 x1 + 2 x2 + . . . . + k xk (7) velocity for each snow cover:

where y is the response, in this case snow density. xk are 1

the predictors and k are the regression coefficients. A vmean = v (11)

t t

regression analysis examines the relation of the response

to the predictors. The selected predictors in the analysis where v is the 10 min mean wind velocity (in m s1 ,

are parameters assumed to be of importance for determin- recorded three times per day) and t is the age of the

ing the response. The analysis searches for the combi- snow cover (total number of observations).

nation of predictors xk (including regression coefficients tsun represents the amount of solar energy absorbed by

k ) resulting in a response, y, with a high coefficient the snow cover:

of determination, R 2 . The coefficient of determination

is the proportion of variability in the data set that is tsun = s (1 a) (12)

accounted for by the statistical model. For a good model, t

R 2 should be close to unity. The parameters investigated

as predictors in this study are those expected to be of The parameter s is the daily sun hours, and the albedo,

significance, considering knowledge from the literature a, accounts for the amount of radiation reflected by the

and the authors own experience from earlier investiga- snow cover. The variation of albedo with summation of

tions. The analyses are performed by use of the statistical daily maximum temperatures since the last snowfall is

software program MINITAB. found in Harstveit (1984), referring to U.S. Army Corps

For the parameters representing the frequency, or sum, of Engineers (1956).

of a specific observation, the values reflect the diurnal In order to describe the effects of high air temperatures,

number of observations at the meteorological station. At two parameters are defined. Theat is calculated by summa-

the station in As, there are three observations per day. If rizing the observed temperatures, T , above the freezing

a snow cover has an age, t, of 120, it means that there point in the accumulation period:

have been 120 observations since the snow cover was

established. Hence, the age of the snow cover is 40 days. Theat = T when T > 0 C (13)

t

Two parameters describe the climate during snow-

falls. vsnow is a measure of wind velocities during snow- where T is the observed air temperature (in C, obser-

falls, while RHsnow summarizes the observed relative air vations three times per day). The mean temperature for

humidity for all periods with snowfall. As seen in Equa- each snow cover is represented by Tmean :

tions (8) and (9), vsnow and RHsnow are scaled in order

to account for the amount of precipitation at each snow- 1

Tmean = T (14)

fall. Thus, the climate during large snowfalls contributes t t

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

PREDICTING SNOW DENSITY USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA 417

where T is the observed temperature (in C, observations parameter, xk , there is no influence on the response, y,

three times per day) and t is the age of the snow cover (i.e. the coefficient k is equal to zero).

(total number of observations). If the p-value P is lower than the -level, the associ-

ptot summarizes the atmospheric pressures observed in ation between the response and predictor is statistically

the accumulation period of the snow cover: significant. The -level is the probability of rejecting the

null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is really true,

ptot = p (15) i.e. finding a significant association when one does not

t really exist. The smaller the p-value, the smaller is the

probability for making a mistake by rejecting the null

where p is the observed atmospheric pressure (in hPa, hypothesis. If the p-value is higher than the -level, the

observations three times per day). Other parameters predictor may be excluded. A commonly used -level is

used in the analyses are the observed snow depth d 0.05 (corresponding to 95% confidence level).

(in cm) taking into account the effect of compaction, Evident correlation is found between the observed

the parameter t which is the age of the snow cover climate and the measured snow density. Equation (20)

(accounting for the effects of metamorphism) and Rp is the result of the regression analysis with the six

summarizing the total amount of precipitation as rain (in most significant parameters, i.e. the combination of six

mm) experienced by the snow cover: parameters from Equation (17) with highest coefficient

of determination (R 2 ). The coefficient of determination

Rp = Prain (16) is 70% and the standard deviation is 24 kg m3 .

t

= 230 + 0.0167RHsnow + 2.23fdrift 1.84d

The snow density is finally expected to be a function

4.66 104 ptot + 2.4tsun 1.89Rp (20)

of:

where is the snow density in kg m3 . The snow density

= f (X) where X = (d fdrift ptot vmean vsnow is an average for the whole snow layer. RHsnow (sum

Rp RHsnow t tsun Theat Tmean ) (17) of relative air humidity in percentage, see Equation (9))

describes the climate during snowfall. The parameters

ptot (sum of atmospheric pressure for the snow cover in

4. Results hPa, see Equation (15)), fdrift (number of times with wind

velocity above 4 m s1 and simultaneous snow able to

Multiple regression analyses are performed with the drift, see Equation (10)), tsun (a measure of the amount of

parameters in Equation (17). The standard error (SE ), t- sunlight absorbed by the snow cover, see Equation (12))

value (T ) and p-value (P ) of each regression coefficient and Rp (the amount of rain experienced by the snow cover

are calculated and used to exclude the least significant in milli metres, see Equation (16)) describe the climate

parameters. The standard error SE is defined as: in the whole accumulation period. In addition, the snow

depth d (in centimetres) is an important parameter.

SE = (X X)1 s 2 (18) Measurements with standardized residuals (ratio of

the residuals, ei , to the standard error of estimate, Sy.x )

where s is the estimated standard deviation of the error above an absolute value of 3 are expected to be outliers

term in the regression model and X is the matrix of (statistical observation that is markedly different in value

predictors. from others in the sample). Twelve such outliers have

The t-value (T ) is defined as: been eliminated. The SE, t-value and p-value of each

regression coefficient are listed in Table IV.

k The parameters in the regression model interact, and

T = (19) it is difficult to show the effect of a single parameter

SE

graphically. In Figure 1, the observed values for some

The t-value for a predictor can be used to test whether parameters are compared with the calculated values

the response is accurately predicted. The larger the using Equation (20) (solved with respect of the studied

absolute value of the t-value, the more likely it is that parameter and where the measured density is set as ).

the predictor is significant. As can be seen, there is some scatter.

If the model is overfitted, i.e. too many predictors Considering the physical interpretation of Equation

are included in the analysis in relation to the number (20), the constant of 230 can be seen as a start (or

of observations, a too high coefficient of determination, initial) density. The predictors of the regression equation

R 2 , can be achieved. A model with high R 2 may not be increase or decrease the density depending on the sign of

useful if there are no significant effects present. One way the regression coefficient. Parameters found to increase

to determine whether the observed relationship between the density are RHsnow , fdrift and tsun . Parameters found

the response and a specific predictor is significant is to decrease the density are d, ptot and Rp .

to test the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis (H0 ) Equation (20) clearly indicates that the snow density

is explicitly formulated here as follows: for a specific decreases with increasing sum of atmospheric pressure

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

418 V. MELYSUND ET AL.

Table IV. Regression coefficients with standard error of coefficient (SE coeff.); t-value, T (estimated coefficient divided on SE

coefficient); and p-value, P (probability of obtaining a test statistic that is at least as extreme as the actual calculated value, if

the null hypothesis is true). P < 0.05 means that the association between the response and predictor is statistically significant.

T = k SE 1 . The larger the absolute value of T , the more likely it is that the predictor, xk , is significant.

xk k error SE T P determination R 2 (%)a

RHsnow 0.0167 5.64 104 29.55 0.000 33

fdrift 2.23 0.15 15.22 0.000 40

d 1.84 0.10 18.00 0.000 44

ptot 4.66 104 2.8 105 16.46 0.000 53

tsun 2.40 0.15 16.15 0.000 62

Rp 1.89 0.16 11.62 0.000 70

a Regression analysis where parameters are added one by one. The method adds the predictor that results in largest increase of R 2 .

Observed value (sum, %)

16000

8000

Calculated value (all measurements summarized, in %)

Depth d

Observed value (cm)

90

60

30

0 20 40 60 80 100

Calculated value (cm)

Observed value (no. of occ.)

40

20

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Calculated value (no. of occurences)

Figure 1. Calculated values using the regression model (Equation (20)) versus the observed values. This figure is available in colour online at

www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

ptot . High pressure in the winter season normally means cover with a lower value of RHsnow . These results are

cold weather, and no precipitation while low pressure consequently as expected.

normally means higher temperatures and precipitation. High wind velocities enable the snow to drift. Drift-

The sum of the atmospheric pressures over the whole ing snow gives smaller snow crystals and compaction of

accumulation period provides information on both mean the snow cover, and therefore the snow density increases.

temperatures and precipitation amounts. High tempera- A windswept snow cover is expected to be more densely

tures result in increased snow densities. Large precipita- packed than a less windswept snow cover. There is a ten-

tion amounts lead to compaction of the snow layer and dency towards increasing density with increasing snow-

increases the snow density. drift (fdrift ), as can be seen in Equation (20). Figure 1

A high sum of relative air humidity during snowfalls indicates that there may be a better description of this

(RHsnow ) may also indicate the temperature. A snow effect than a linear relationship, but the physical pro-

cover with a high value of RHsnow has experienced higher cesses are complex and it is hard to find a simple expres-

temperatures (and thereby more wet snow) than a snow sion that could give a better correlation.

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

PREDICTING SNOW DENSITY USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA 419

One could expect higher average snow densities for These parameters are better predictors than temperature

large snow depths, due to compaction. This is also parameters alone because they also provide information

true when the influence of the snow depth is studied on other conditions. ptot , for instance, is a better predictor

separately, as can be seen in Figure 2. However, in than temperature parameters because it correlates with

Equation (20), where several effects are combined, the both temperatures and amount of precipitation.

regression coefficient for d has a negative sign, which The weather data are not in a continuous time series

means that large snow depths tend to decrease the and the measurements do not record all variations in

density. This tendency can also be seen in Figure 2 for the climate (hourly data are only available for a small

snow covers that have experienced a certain amount of number of meteorological stations in Norway). Local

temperatures above the freezing point. For large snow adjustments at each measurement site could be necessary

depths, the external climate influences the density to a when evaluating precipitation rates and effects of wind.

lesser degree than smaller snow depths. Only the upper

part of the snow cover is exposed, and for large snow

depths this area constitutes only a small part of the total 5. Discussion and further work

snow cover. Thus, the snow depth, d, can be seen as a Snow depth, mean wind and mean temperature are the

corrective term for the other external climate parameters. most important parameters in the expressions for snow

The analyses show that the density increases with density in ISO 4355(Equations (1)(3)). Combinations

increasing amount of solar radiation (tsun ). Solar radiation of these parameters ( d, 3 T mean and vmean ) are inves-

supplies energy and consequently increases the temper- tigated without achieving sufficient correlation. These

ature in the snow layer, which leads to compaction and results are not included in this paper. As can be seen in

increased snow density. The analyses also show that the Table IV, the parameter with highest coefficient of deter-

density decreases with increasing amount of precipitation mination (R 2 ) in a simple regression analysis, is RHsnow

as rain (Rp ). Snow cover may absorb rain, and the snows where R 2 equals 33%. If two parameters are combined in

density increases. Repeated rainfalls, on the other hand, a multiple regression analysis, the combination RHsnow

demolish the ice structure and reduce the snow covers and fdrift gives the highest coefficient of determination

ability to absorb water. As a result, the snow density (40%). In a simple regression analysis, the snow depth,

decreases. d, has a coefficient of determination equal to 5%.

The authors expected temperature parameters to be According to NS 3491-3, old snow (several weeks or

more significant than the predictors in Equation (20). The months after snowfall) has a density between 250 and

values of the parameters RHsnow , ptot , tsun and Rp depend 350 kg m3 (Table I). Of the measured snow densities

on the temperatures experienced by the snow cover. in this investigation, 64% are below 250 kg m3 and

300

Density (kgm-3)

250

200

150

100

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Depth (cm)

300

Density (kgm-3)

250

200

150

100

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Depth (cm)

Figure 2. Density as a function of snow depth. In the upper part of the figure black circles are measurements with values of Theat below 10, grey

squares are measurements with values of Theat between 10 and 75 while triangles are measurements with values of Theat above 75. This figure

is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

420 V. MELYSUND ET AL.

350

250 250

200 200

150

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Age (days x 3)

Figure 3. Measured densities versus age of snow cover. This figure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

40

30

Percent

20

10

0

0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1

Ratio calculated/measured value

Figure 4. Calculated densities using Equation (20) (95% fractile values) divided by measured values (fitted to a loglogistic distribution with

Loc = 0.1791 and Scale = 0.06194). This figure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

34% have values below 200 kg m3 (Figure 3). The Calculated 95% fractile values for the snow densities are

recommended values in NS 3491-3 overestimate the snow compared with the measured densities in Figure 4. Only

density in most cases. The snow covers in the current 5% of the calculated values are below measured values,

analyses have been accumulated gradually. Thus, the while for 44% of the calculations the ratio of calculated

bottom layer of the snow covers can be characterized as to measured value exceeds 1.2.

old while the top layer is fresh. The density equation When the calculations are done according to Equa-

suggested in NS 3491-3 is too conservative and does not tion (2), 26% of the calculated values are below the

properly deal with gradually accumulated snow covers. measured density values (Figure 5). The ratio of the

The calculated snow densities by use of Equation (20) calculated to measured value exceeds 1.2 for 39% of

represent mean values: 95% fractile values are achieved the calculated values. Compared to the analyses results,

by increasing the calculated snow densities by two Equation (2) is less accurate for prediction of snow den-

times the standard deviation of error (2 24 kg m3 ). sity, regarding the climate studied in this investigation.

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

PREDICTING SNOW DENSITY USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA 421

40

30

Percent

20

10

0

0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1

Ratio calculated value/measured value

Figure 5. Calculated values according to Equation (2) divided by measured values (fitted to a loglogistic distribution with Loc = 0.1202 and

Scale = 0.1038). This figure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

40

30

Percent

20

10

0

0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1

Ratio calculated value/measured value

Figure 6. Calculated values according to Equation (4) divided by measured values (fitted to a loglogistic distribution with Loc = 0.3535 and

Scale = 0.1078). This figure is available in colour online at www.interscience.wiley.com/ma

This is because Equation (2) underestimates the snow The density measurements were done within a small

density in many cases. The equation is nevertheless useful area in Norway and combined with data from one meteo-

for simple and rough estimates. rological station. Further work should aim at investigating

When calculating snow density by use of Equation (4), the results in view of data from other parts of the country.

almost all (97%) calculated densities are below the mea- Possible measurement uncertainties in conjunction with

sured values (Figure 6). The equation is less applicable the used meteorological station could then be reduced.

for an occasional/arbitrary period in a climate as studied The capability of the proposed empirical formula to esti-

in this investigation. Equation (4) is meant to be used mate snow density in different climates would then also

for snow depths with a 50-year return period. A compar- be demonstrated.

ison between measured snow densities and calculations The current investigation will be used as input to ongo-

by use of Equations (2), (4) and (20) is summarized in ing studies within the Norwegian research and develop-

Table V. ment programme Climate 2000 (Lis et al., 2005). In

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

422 V. MELYSUND ET AL.

Table V. Comparison of measured snow density and calculated snow density (in kg m3 ) using Equations (2), (4) and (20) (95%

fractile values). Statistical data for the ratio calculated value/measured value.

equation deviation below 1.0 (%) above 1.2 (%) no.

Equation (4) 0.71 0.14 97 1 6

Equation (20) (new method) 1.21 0.14 5 44 4

Climate 2000, the relationship between snow loads on to prescribe snow density for a climate as studied in this

roof and wind exposure is subjected to further investi- investigation. Still, they can be used as simple and rough

gations (Melysund et al., 2006, 2007). The significance estimates.

of the magnitude of roof snow load according to total

building costs will also be addressed. Will society profit

from a more detailed prediction of roof snow loads? The Acknowledgements

advantage of a built-in safety margin accounting for a This paper has been written as part of the ongoing

future change in wind exposure and climate will most SINTEF research and development programme Climate

likely be beneficial. 2000Building constructions in a more severe climate

In recent years, methods to refine the design process (20002007), strategic institute project Impact of cli-

with respect to snow load have been developed. However, mate change on the built environment. The authors grate-

advanced tools and data processing are required. These fully acknowledge all construction industry partners and

tools are often not available for structural engineers, and the Research Council of Norway. A special thanks to Pro-

high qualifications within meteorological and geophysical fessor emeritus Halvor Hib and Professor Egil Berge

processes are required. The risk that advanced methods at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB) for

will be used in an unintended manner is therefore allowing use of their measurements, and to Dr Hans Olav

present. Further work should focus on developing tools Hygen (Norwegian Meteorological Institute) for valuable

for geographic differentiation of snow loads, including comments on the text.

local topography and climate variations.

References

6. Conclusions Benestad RE. 2005. Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from

multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations. Geophysical Research

A clear correlation is found between observed climate and Letters 32: L17704.

measured snow density. A multiple regression equation Engeset R, Tveito OE, Alfnes E, Mengistu Z, Udns HC, Isaksen K,

for prediction of snow density is developed. The results Frland EJ. 2004. Snow map system for Norway. In Proceedings,

XXIII Nordic Hydrological Conference 2004 , Tallinn.

are promising, with a coefficient of determination equal European Committee for Standardization. 2003. EN 1991-1-

to 70% and a standard deviation equal to 24 kg m3 1: Eurocode 1 Actions on Structures Part 13: General

compared to measured values. Actions Snow Loads. European Committee for Standardization:

Brussels.

The suggested equation has six predictors and one Harstveit K. 1984. Snowmelt modelling and energy exchange between

constant. The most important predictor RHsnow (sum of the atmoshere and a melting snow cover, PhD thesis, Geophysical

relative air humidity when snowing) concerns the climate Institute, Meteorological Division, University of Bergen, Norway.

Hedstrom N, Pomeroy JW. 1998. Intercepted snow in the boreal forest:

during snowfalls. Other important parameters reflect the measurement and modelling. Journal of Hydrological Processes 12:

climate in the whole accumulation period, such as tsun 16111625.

(the amount of solar radiation) and fdrift (frequency of Hib H. 1988. Snow load on gable roofs. Results from snow load

measurements on farm buildings in Norway. In Proceedings, the

high wind velocity and simultaneous snow which is First International Conference on Snow Engineering. CRREL Special

able to drift). The parameters RHsnow , fdrift and tsun are Report 89-6 , Santa Barbara, 95104.

found to increase the density. The parameters d (snow International Organization for Standardization. 1998. ISO 4355 Bases

for design on structures Determination of snow loads on roofs. In

depth), ptot (sum of atmospheric pressure) and Rp (sum International Organization for Standardization, Geneve.

of precipitation as rain) are found to decrease the density. Karl TR, Trenberth KE. 2003. Modern global climate change. Science

The most important parameters in density equations 302: 17191723.

Langham EJ. 1981. Physics and properties of snow cover. In Handbook

presented in an informative annexe of ISO 4355 are snow of Snow: Principles, Processes, Management and Use, Gray DM,

depth, mean wind and mean temperature. Combinations Male DH (eds). Pergamon Press; New York 275337.

of these parameters are investigated without achieving Lis KR, Kvande T, Thue JV. 2005. Climate 2000 building

enclosure performance in a more severe climate. Proceedings, the

satisfactory correlation. These results are not included in 7th Symposium on Building Physics in the Nordic Countries. The

this paper. Icelandic Building Research Institute: Reykjavik; 11951202.

Snow density values calculated by use of the Nor- Loth B, Graf H. 1998. Modeling the snow cover in climate studies.

1. Long-term integrations under different climatic conditions using

wegian code NS 3491-3 will in most cases be overes- a multilayered snow-cover model. Journal of Geophysical Research

timated. The expressions in ISO 4355 are less applicable 103: 11 31311 327.

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

PREDICTING SNOW DENSITY USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA 423

McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds.). Skaugen T. 1998. Studie av skilletemperatur for sn ved hjelp av

2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. samlokalisert snpute, nedbr- og temperaturdata (in Norwegian).

Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. Rapport nr. 11. NVE Norges Vassdrags- og Energiverk, Oslo.

Melysund V, Lis KR, Siem J, Apeland K. 2006. Increased snow Sommerfeld RA, LaChapelle E. 1970. The classification of snow

loads and wind actions on existing buildings: reliability of metamorphism. Journal of Glaciology 9(55): 317.

the Norwegian building stock. Journal of Structural Engineering Standards Norway. 2001. NS 3491-3: Design of structures Design

132(10): 18131820. actions Part 3: Snow loads (in Norwegian). Standards Norway,

Melysund V, Lis KR, Hygen HO, Hiseth KV, Leira B. 2007. Oslo.

Effects of wind exposure on roof snow loads. Building and Tabler RD, Pomeroy JW, Santana BW. 1990. Drifting snow. In Cold

Environment 42(10): 37263736. Regions Hydrology and Hydraulics, Ryan WL, Crissman RD (eds).

Nordli O. 2000. Fjellet i sn, vind, sol og t ake. Dannevigs Fjellbok ASME: New York, USA; 95146.

(in Norwegian). Det Norske Samlaget, Oslo. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 1956. Snow Hydrology: Summary

Pomeroy JW, Gray DM, Shook KR, Toth B, Essery RLH, Pietron- Report of the Snow Investigations. U. S. Army Corps of Engineers,

iro A, Hedstrom N. 1998. An evaluation of snow accumulation and North Pacific Division: Portland, OR.

ablation processes for land surface modelling. Hydrological Pro- Xue Y, Sun S, Kahan DS, Jiao Y. 2003. Impact of parameterizations

cesses 12: 23392367. in snow physics and interface processes on the simulation of snow

Shook D, Gray DM. 1994. Determining the snow water equivalent of cover and runoff at several cold regions sites. Journal of Geophysical

shallow prairie snowcovers. In Proceedings, 51st Annual Meeting Research 108(D22): 8859.

Eastern Snow Conference, Dearborn, 8995.

Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 14: 413423 (2007)

DOI: 10.1002/met

- MAT 540 Statistical Concepts for ResearchUploaded bynequwan79
- QTM Regression Analysis Ch4 RSHUploaded byNadia Khan
- Manual PLA 2.0Uploaded byhumusdelombriz
- Exam 1 - EconometricsUploaded byougnicb
- 11 RegressionUploaded byDuckie
- microeconometría bancariaUploaded byJhon Diego Vargas Oliveira
- bbs13e_chapter13Uploaded byDrNaveed Ul Haq
- ewanUploaded byChristian Aquino
- Financial Management Information System 2018Uploaded bykhadija
- MCC 201 Assignment Winter 2012Uploaded byRajib Mukherjee
- Cheat Sheet FinalUploaded bykookmasteraj
- Performance Factor Impact on Profitability of Cementmanufacturing Sector in PakistanUploaded byMuhammed Amjad Islam
- System Identification Curve FittingUploaded byhammoudeh13
- Methods for Analyzing Electric Load Shape and Its VariabilityUploaded bymihai_chiru
- m.e Economic ModelUploaded bydawarameer
- Regression and CorrelationUploaded byApporva Malik
- Novi Dara UtamiUploaded byDra'zt Nov Zuhanda
- Paper - The Boyle’s Law Simulator, A Dynamic Interactive Visualization - S A Sinex - 2008.pdfUploaded bySinggih Satrio Wibowo
- regresi spss pdf.pdfUploaded bykrismon
- LABA ASETUploaded byYuniz ChaNies
- Hasil Spss FerisUploaded byKethut Suswantoro
- water resource-1Uploaded byRaman Lux
- advertisement.pdfUploaded byArun Mandal
- Mahmoud Sale Hi 2012Uploaded byShikha Sharma
- Dampak Packaging Terhadap SalesturnoverUploaded byTrisa Dini Daswan
- 3447Uploaded bySohail Ahmad
- Study Hours.docxUploaded byShoaib Hyder
- final presentationUploaded byapi-309586551
- Grincova Andrejiova Marasova 73Uploaded bysky4ster
- 12. Regression PerformanceUploaded byKyungMinShim

- Embankment on deep varved clay t67-008.pdfUploaded bySen Hu
- offshore wind platformUploaded bySen Hu
- Improved Analysis Method for Wave-Induced Pipeline Stability on Sandy Seabed.pdfUploaded bySen Hu
- Lugeon ValueUploaded bymanu
- Traffic-Induced Building Vibrations in Montreal _rcc40377Uploaded bySen Hu
- Structural MonitoringUploaded byTayyab Zafar
- Response Cracks Constrction Vibration Environmental Effects_Dowding_asce_july2004_responseUploaded bySen Hu
- Structure Response to Coal Mine BlastingUploaded bySen Hu
- Basic Ground-borne Vibration Concepts Ch7[1]Uploaded bySen Hu
- Attenuation of Vibration_Amick-SPIE99Uploaded bySen Hu
- 2000 - Vibrations Near Heritage BuildingsUploaded bySen Hu
- Kramer_et_al_1994 Settlement Protection Works for the New St. Clair River Rail TunnelUploaded bySen Hu
- Grouting PresentationUploaded bySen Hu
- 1994 12th Canadian Tunnelling ConferenceUploaded bySen Hu
- triaxial test swelling rockUploaded bySen Hu
- Evaluation of Swelling Properties of Shale for Design of Underground StructuresUploaded bySen Hu
- In-Situ Monitoring of Side Friction of Drilled Piles by Different Loading MethodsUploaded bySen Hu
- WA DOH Water Res GuidelinesUploaded bynugrohosuryoputro2917
- Influence of Anchor Inclination on Pull-out Resistance of ClaysUploaded bySen Hu
- 070209-GeologyMap2506Uploaded bySen Hu
- Development of Vietnamese Codes and Standards in Construction_ws2006-Nbnguyen-pUploaded bySen Hu
- Essaycompany.com-Analysis of Vietnams Energy Supply and ProductionUploaded bySen Hu
- Liquefaction Triggering Assessment of Gravelly Sand State-Of-Art Review ReportUploaded bySen Hu
- Liquefaction Studies on Silty Clays Using Cyclic Triaxial TestsUploaded bySen Hu
- Influence of Repeated Loading on Behaviour of Frozen Silty Clay CPC4-440Uploaded bySen Hu
- Pore Pressures and Strains After Repeated Loading of Saturated Cly t75-066Uploaded bySen Hu
- Dow InsulationUploaded bySen Hu
- 1986. Bakhtar, K. and Barton, N. in Situ Rock Deformability Tests at Rocky Mt Pumped Hydro. ARMA, AlamamaUploaded bySen Hu
- Current Cognition of Rock Tensile Strength Testing by Brazilian Test_PB_englUploaded bySen Hu

- The TempestUploaded bysah108_pk796
- Philippine Wind Information for Engineering, Research and MitigationUploaded byronjieaquino
- LWW Answer KeyUploaded byHiyaDutt
- Reservoir Fluid Properties RequiredUploaded byninoska217608
- demand forecasting best reportUploaded bymashakkali
- UNIT 2 EXTENSION.pdfUploaded byAnonymous ar8kX1Wh9X
- TurbochargingUploaded byAugusto Reboredo
- PA 6.6 Nylon 6.6Uploaded byNaeem Khan
- Yahari_Ore_no_Seishun_Rabukome_wa_Machigatte_Iru_Vol_09.pdfUploaded byRYRTY
- KAT-A_2443-PTK-P_HADE_1-1_06-10_ENUploaded byRamki Chandran
- Lost at Sea The Atlantic Salmon's OdysseyUploaded byThe Royal Society of Edinburgh
- Disaster ManagementUploaded byLyrMa NC
- Glossary of Selected Literary ConventionsUploaded byJosé Antonio Martínez García
- AP-T319-16-Asphalt Fatigue Damage Healing and Endurance LimitsUploaded byBill Lee
- Manpower PlanningUploaded bySamrat Uno
- 3b-1 Yee WEDA TAMU Paper_Lach Huyen RerUploaded byJean Paul Et La Petite
- Fresh Air Sensible Heat RecoveryUploaded byntt_121987
- City-of-Ukiah-Residential-Existing-Air-Conditioner-or-Heat-Pump-Tune-Up-RebateUploaded byGenability
- Ecuador Galapagos Peru Kosher TourUploaded bykoshertravelers
- Carbon Budget of IndiaUploaded bydrjkbs
- General Directorate of Traffic Project 2009-2013 SIGNEDUploaded bySayed Diab Alsayed
- Third ReviewUploaded byRickson Viahul Rayan C
- Uncut August 2015Uploaded byArt Celis
- CHE 320 nUploaded byCharles Bailey
- 29320AUploaded byGabriely Murilo
- The Stairwell Creaks (1996-1997)Uploaded byarkansaswits
- Production Risk Assessment City CentreUploaded byAnonymous ECKqi9p
- Comparing City Temperatures WorksheetUploaded byPrisca
- AaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaUploaded byDũng Akira
- Dynamics of Steam AccumulationUploaded byArvin Slayer