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I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about

the markets. In that
same way, I'd like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. I find the
market update
information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and am happy to
share that
information with my readers. If your beliefs are not similar to mine, however, then
this information
may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to go through some sort of
intellectual exercise to
prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember that everyone can usually find lots
of evidence to
support their beliefs and refute others. Simply know that I admit that these are my
beliefs and that
your beliefs might be different.

These monthly updates are in the first issue of Tharp's Thoughts each month which
allows us to get
the closing data from the previous month. These updates cover 1) the market type
(first mentioned
in the April 30, 2008 edition of Tharp's Thoughts), 2) the debt statistics for the
US, 3) the five-week
status on each of the major US stock market indices, 4) our four-star inflation-
deflation model, and
5) tracking the US dollar. I also write a report on the strongest and weakest areas
of the overall
market as a separate SQN� Report. Significant market charges may mean the SQN
Report comes
out more than once a month.

Part I: The Big Picture

So what are the markets telling us now?

The markets have been quite strong since the Trump election. The Market SQN� score
is bullish
and has been pretty much since November.

US Debt Clock

In late April 2016, usdebtclock.org said our official debt went over the $19
trillion mark and at the
end of last month we are only 70 billion away from $20 trillion. Nevertheless, our
politicians are
doing their usual �wonderful� job of spending our money plus money they don�t have.
Donald Trump
is nothing new. Trump wants to build a multibillion dollar wall that will basically
be useless; reduce
taxes and increase the worst form of spending � war spending (framed as Defense).
Incidentally,
when the USSR dissolved and the Cold War ended, if we had slashed our defense
spending we
would basically have no debt. Instead, the war machine needed to keep making money
so they
invented the War on Terror, homeland security, and took away a lot of our prior
freedoms in the
name of protecting Americans.

You�ll notice that the S&P 500 bar chart below was quite bullish. the debt clock lists Medicaid. In fact. That�s over half the population. it has settled in the Quiet range since then. By the way. Remember about 10% of the taxpayers (12 million) pay most of the tax revenue. And lately those numbers are going down. taxpayers.S. I add together US Retirees (51. While the last few bars may look like they are weaker than last month.1 million U. had a consolidation period and now is starting to rise again.6 million). The market has actually been rising slightly since mid-April. Compare the price bar patterns to the 100 day Market SQN chart below. Bear markets do not start from this kind of volatility. the website says there are 120. While volatility rose into the normal range in late September/early October for a few days. . Right now.0 million people as receiving benefits. The 25 day and 50 day Market SQN scores are both neutral. Part II: The Current Stock Market Type Is Bull Quiet The market type classification tells us what is happening today � not what is going to happen tomorrow. I don�t think there is any overlap here.3 million and that�s why I say that they constitute a group that�s 86% of the number of taxpayers.5 million) as among those supported by taxpayers � but they do pay taxes. volatility is the lowest that it has been for some time. Since the election. Medicare. the S&P has been strong although we are going through a relatively flat period now. the S&P 500 has had 20 all-time new highs in the last 100 days and 7 of them occurred in the last month. and several other sources of benefits that I don�t include because I assume they are overlaps and thus lists 164.0 million) food stamp recipients (41.7 million) and disabled people drawing social security (10. Those groups total 103. The Market SQN score for 100 days and the Market SQN for 200 days are both in the Bull range. just because food stamp recipients are going down each month. there remains little danger in terms of volatility.Incidentally. I could also include all government employees (23.

96. . the model shifted results to the inflation side. Part IV: Tracking the Dollar The US Dollar Index is now looking much weaker and is again below 100 closing the month at 96. Despite that. We�ve had interest rate increases (although don�t expect any significant raises due to the size of our debt). Part III: Our Four Star Inflation-Deflation Model My model has generated mostly deflationary scores for the last few years. It�s about what the market is doing � the market is Bullish AND QUIET. The tracking table below has historical and current year figures. the Dow is up 7.31% on the year. In my opinion. All three of those companies. however. by the way. Perhaps the world measures the value of the US Dollar by what they think of our president.0 is slightly inflationary. are the major players in Artificial Intelligence. The score of 0. and AAPL (which would be over $1000 without the 7 for 1 split). This is a perfect buy and hold market (where buy and hold means have a 25% trailing stop). This is not about prediction. In 2016. And the hot stocks are AMZN (over $1000). It�s were everyone looks like a genius. Here are the model components and how the prices looked at the end of May compared with two months back and six months back. GOOG (nearly $1000). we are now only Bull Quiet. All three market indices are up nicely for the first five months of the year and over the last month. this is one of the best markets for the average person that I have seen in a long time. Markets move in correlation to inflation/deflation trends so it can be helpful to track these trends. The S&P 500 is up 6. Deflation means that stuff generally becomes cheaper.02%.The table below reports the three major US Indices levels through May 31st. The volatility is quiet. We are going to present three workshops in London in mid-October so it wouldn�t surprise me if the dollar weakened at least against the British Pound until we return in late October.5 out of a possible 4. Are you up over 6% already for 2017? How about up 19% like the NASDAQ? This is a little like the 1990s.73% and the NASDAQ 100 is up 19. which means that stuff tends to get more expensive. It been in a slow decline since December and I�m not sure if there is a good reason.

and other traditional causes of recessions are not close at all. My guess (not a prediction) is that the S&P 500 will at least double its current gains for 2017 by the end of the year � it returned nearly 10% last year. On top of that the average person is not involved in the market.com. And a 4% return per month in the NDX 100 is pretty good too. oil price spikes. Conclusion This market is strong. The possibility exists for a strong breakout this summer. Harry Dent (a MAJOR bear) says that Trump will resign and we will have a major crash. You can learn more about Van Tharp www. The only foreseeable danger to the market is if Donald Trump manages to get himself impeached or starts a war. The NASDAQ 100 is reminding me a lot of the 1990s and who knows. Last month I finished a newsletter article with the conclusion that a market downturn is not close. About the Author: Trading coach. Until next month.2%.vantharp. In fact. they are scared. To summarize that here � interest rate spikes. . Van K. The S&P is a bull market type with a flat consolidation and very low volatility right now. this is Van Tharp. and author.(Remember that the �Tharp Effect� has been a long running joke but all too often. it seems to be true). Chances are you may not make huge money at it now but just buying the NASDAQ 100 at the start of the year and holding it until today would have returned 19. They don�t buy investment books and they don�t go to trading conferences. Pay attention to what the market is saying. But don�t pay attention to major bears. Tharp is widely recognized for his best-selling books and his outstanding Peak Performance Home Study program .a highly regarded classic that is suitable for all levels of traders and investors. it could be up over 50% this year. Dr.

Tharp is willing to allow candidates to use the course in a similar manner to those that attend the Peak Performance 101 workshop." Many people have had this experience themselves. NC The Role of This Course and The Super Trader Program If you are interested in applying for admittance to the Super Trader Program. At $495. Reach A Higher Level of Consciousness: A Special Event With Van Tharp How could a higher level of consciousness help a trader? Most people have had the experience of watching someone who is really great at what they do. this course is also the most cost effective way to take a qualifying workshop to apply to the Super Trader Program. rather than working on systems or trades. but you know when you've had one. there is an element of effortlessness that comes from their ability to be "in the moment. This is the last qualifying workshop before the price increase. Dr.Qualify to Apply To The Super Trader Program by attending Oneness Awakening this July! Oneness Awakening Weekend Presented by Van Tharp and Rebecca Price July 8-9 Saturday-Sunday VTI Facility. It's at these times when we can recognize these people are in a high state of awareness. The first stage of the Super Trader program is very much about working on the self. in some aspect of their lives � for a few seconds or even a few minutes. The moments may be fleeting. Participating in the Oneness Awakening Course is an extraordinary opportunity to benefit from some of the most important journeys Dr. Whether it's a sports star in the game or a masterful craftsman. and to . Since this course focuses on your inner-growth and self-work. 2017. this workshop is a qualifying event. Cary. and motivated traders are able to apply to the program after attending either one. The price of the Super Trader Program will increase July 31. Tharp has taken to transform his life.

opens up new possibilities. Tharp accomplish his mission of transformation and ultimately help each of his clients succeed. She has been teaching with Dr. Time and time again. we invite you to call or email Rebecca Price. Tharp for 3 years. and they will also experience an immediate and tangible shift in perception. and is enthusiastic about helping others to dive into their own transformation. calm. As a result of this experience. Why? Because the person themselves are always the primary instrument. and centered. Workshop Schedule July 2017 Oneness Awakening Weekend Presented by Van Tharp and . calmer and more centered. Call 919-466-0043 or email rebecca@vantharp. rather than what they want to see. or talk with someone to see if this workshop is right for you. in turn. but also their personal lives as well! If you would like to know more about this workshop. the act of trading becomes more relaxed and they become more confident and successful. By extension. The Oneness Awakening Weekend course has become a fundamental tool in helping Dr. we have seen amazing results in the traders who experience the benefits of being more 'awake' and aware.com. Students who attend this two-day intensive workshop will walk away with tools to help them cultivate awareness in their life. Rebecca is a certified Oneness Trainer. even before the technical skills of trading are engaged. Does this sound like the type of experience you want trading to be? While this two-day course is not a technical course about trading. Another great thing about the concepts and experiences in this course is that they have benefits that apply throughout students' lives. When a trader sees the market as it really is. Keen awareness. Just like the athlete with impressive skills.cultivate this awareness in your day to day life. they will also experience a shift in how they perceive the market. traders can also utilize the phenomenon of tapping into their awareness to achieve premium results. not just in their trading endeavors. traders can expect to naturally become more aware. traders tell us that their trading improved after taking this course. positive.

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to Successfully Trade Sideways Markets In Every Time Frame August 11-13 Friday-Sunday VTI Facility. The Super Trader Summit is in December. explains the diagram and the unique chart pattern above � where all of the regression lines are within the 1 standard deviation of the price (as defined by Bollinger Bands and which Ken calls �the river�). Forex Trading Systems (November). our Day Trading Systems Workshop Instructor. . NC Attend both August Workshops and save $1. etc. England this October! We expect to offer two more Peak Performance 101 workshops (September and October). When this happens. Video New Day Trading Video From Ken Long In this seven minute video. Ken Long. Dr. logistics. pricing.� Ken describes the balance that the traders of all the various time lengths have reached at this point and how price is likely to move after such a moment � because this situation tends to last for a relatively short time. Cary. the Bollinger Bands at 3 standard deviations (Z3) tend to form a �superpinch. We are very close to announcing workshop dates for London. plus three more Sept/Oct events. discounts.000 See full workshop schedule.

The Market SQN score uses the daily percent change for input over a 100-day period. currencies and stock market indices to individual market sectors.05.47 is strongly bullish and a score below -0. commodities. This is basically the same rating scale that we use for the Market SQN Score in the Market Update.7).47). major asset classes.7. Tharp Click here to resolve formatting problems There are numerous ETFs that track everything from countries. Because the weaker value of the dollar influences everything in the model. The world market model spreadsheet report below contains a cross section of currently available ETFs. excluding inverse funds and leveraged funds. and sector. ETFs provide a wonderfully easy way to discover what�s happening in the world markets. In short. * Red: Very weak ETFs that earn negative Market SQN scores < -0. . a Market SQN score over 1. The following color codes help communicate the strengths and weaknesses of the ETFs in this report: * Dark Green: ETFs with very strong Market SQN scores > 1. Trading Tip June 2017 System Quality Number� Report The SQN� Report by Van K. region. I apply a version of my System Quality Number� (SQN�) score to measure the relative performance of numerous markets in a world model. and major currencies.47. * Light Green: ETFs with strong Market SQN scores (0. industrial sectors. * Yellow: ETFs with slightly positive Market SQN scores (0 to 0. equity market segments.70). These are Neutral/Sideways * Brown: ETFs with slightly negative Market SQN scores (0 to -0.7 is very weak. it covers equity markets around the globe. This month the US Dollar is the weakest currency being in the red with a Market SQN� score of minus 1. both European and Asian markets look strong right now.70 to 1. Typically. World Market Summary � Equities & Currencies Each month we look at the equities markets across the globe by segment.

the US Dollar has moved from light green to brown and now it has now turned red. are dark green as are global equities without the US. and the Swiss Franc. we even have some red � especially in Energy. In the US. Oil and Gas Equipment. Semiconductors.0: the Netherlands. These are ranked in terms of the strongest first: Software. We have three light green sectors: Health Care. Technology (QQQ) is off the charts with a Market SQN score of over 3. we now have brown and yellow segments showing up and in various market sectors. Retail. Consumer Staples. Media. however. Metals and Mining.0. Telecom. The three major indices (large caps) are still strong. Utilities. Industrials. three areas are yellow now and another three areas are brown so we�ve lost some of the strength we have seen in recent months.The US equity market segments are no longer all dark green. and Canada is brown. Switzerland. Oil and Gas Exploration. Food and Beverage. REITs. S&P China. except for Russia (not really Europe) and Emerging Europe. Insurance. and Volatility. The only yellows are Biotech. the Yen/Dollar. On the right hand side of the chart. they are: Hong Kong. everything in Europe is dark green. Japan and Thailand are both light green. In fact. Emerging markets (which also appear in this section). Brazil and Latin America are yellow. Consumer Discretionary. and Regional Banks. As a region. We have four light green currencies: the Euro. The Market SQN score for Broker Dealers confirms what I�ve been saying about what�s going on in . and Austria. China/India (though India alone is yellow) South Korea. and Aerospace/Defense. The Canadian Dollar is now brown. On the downside we have Financials. Pharmaceuticals. South Africa is light green and the rest of Africa and the Middle East is yellow. Mexico and Chile are light green. we also have some reds including Energy. Genome. Ranked by strength. China. Three countries have scores over 2. Singapore. We have eight dark green ETFs with seven of them having Market SQN scores over 2. Technology. Asia has become stronger. we have eight sectors that are dark green. however. the Chinese Yuan. and Homebuilders. Australia and India are yellow but everything else there is either green or dark green. Broker Dealers. In the other countries in the Americas. and Malaysia. Basic Materials. Networking and the Dow Transports. In currencies. Lastly.0.

Oil. Steel and Agriculture are brown.the markets. Livestock. . Real Estate. Debt. Base Metals. we see Consumer Staples. Timber and Global Agribusiness are all light green. Last month most of the weak ETFs were debt instruments with their low yields but this month. all of the real estate ETFs are now green. With the Fed raising interest rates twice now and possibly again sometime soon. Gold. Also on the top list. The Bottom Ranking List: This month�s bottom list is entirely red but only two ETFs show a lower negative than a -2 score � which is the best we�ve seen in a while and the same as last month.99. The markets are strong but the Broker Dealers segment weak. Volatility (VXX) is really low but the Market SQN score has become less weak now at -2.43. I�ve noticed that Global Water has stood apart from the rest of the commodities for some time. The Top Ranking List: The first 11 ETFs on the top 15 list all have a Market SQN score over 3.0 while the last four range from 2. and Coal are yellow. Silver. Timber. Commodities.16. and Natural Gas are all red. And Global Water is dark green. Growth stocks are the kings of the markets and while we�ve been talking about QQQ at 3. it is the fifth strongest in our database. Medical Devices. Commodities. energy dominates the group. Debt instruments are all yellow with the exception of short-term bonds which are green. Junk bonds are yellow now but they were dark green last month. People are not participating in this market. etc. and the Top and Bottom Lists Commodities have had an interesting month. as well as a few country ETFs � Switzerland and Germany.79 to 2.