BETWEENTWOAGES

America'sRoleintheTechnetronicEra

ZbigniewBrzezinski

THEVIKINGPRESS/NEWYORK
Copyright1970byZbigniewBrzezinskiAllrightsreserved
Firstpublishedin1970byTheVikingPress,Inc.625MadisonAvenue,NewYork,N.Y.10022
PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanadabyTheMacmillanCompanyofCanadaLimited
ISBN 670160415
LibraryofCongresscatalogcardnumber:76104162
PrintedinU.S.AbyH.WolffBookMfg.Co.
Preparedundertheauspicesofthe ResearchInstituteonCommunistAffairs,ColumbiaUniversity
Portionsofthisbookappearedin Encounter indifferentform

1
 ForIan,Mark,andMika

Acknowledgments
ThoughthisbookdealswithcommunismonlyinpartandthenprimarilyinrelationtothebroaderissueswithwhichIam
concernedtheResearchInstituteonCommunistAffairsofColumbiaUniversityprovidedmewithinvaluableresearch
assistanceandwithacongenialandstimulatingsetting.MycolleaguesattheInstitutelittlerealizehowveryhelpfulthey
havebeeninthegradualprocessofshapingmyideas,testingmyviews,andenlargingmyperspectives.Themanuscriptwas
readandcriticizedbyanumberoffriendsandcolleagues.IamespeciallygratefultoProfessorSamuelP.Huntingtonforhis
trenchantcriticismsandveryhelpfulrecommendationstoProfessorAlbertA.Mavrinac,whomaintainedourfriendlytradi
tionofhisquestioningmyargumentsandofforcingmetorethinksomeofmypropositionstoMrs.ChristineDodson,the
formerAdministrativeAssistantoftheResearchInstitute,whopreparedaveryconstructiveandhighlyperceptivechapter
lengthcritiqueoftheentiredraftandtoProfessorAlexanderErlichforsteeringmeawayfromsomeeconomicpitfalls.Iam
alsomost obligedandgratefultoMissSophiaSluzar,currentlytheAdministrativeAssistant,whoveryablysupervisedthe
overallpreparationofthemanuscriptandwhoearlierwasinstrumentalinpreparingthetablesandassemblingtheneeded
data.MissTobyTrister,myresearchassistant,wasindefatigableinexposingmyinaccuracies,infillingbibliographicgaps,
andincompletingtheresearch.MissDorothyRodnite,MissMichelleElwyn,andMr.MyronGutmannamiablyand
efficientlyevenwhenundergreatpressuresoftimedevotedtheirenergiestothecompletionofthemanuscript.Toallof
themIoweadebtwhichIampleasedtoacknowledge.
IalsowishtonotemyobligationtoMr.MarshallBestofTheVikingPress,onwhoseexperienceandwisecounselIoften
relied,andtoMr.StanleyHochmanforhissensitiveeditorialassistance.
Aspecialmentionisduetomywife.InallmywritingIhavenevercomeacrossamoreconscientiousreader,amore
ferociouscritic,andamoredetermineddareIsayobstinate?perfectionist.Ihavenohesitationinsaying,thoughonly
nowIsayitwithrelief,thatanymeritthisessaymayhaveisinlargemeasureduetoherefforts.
Z.B. October1969

2
Contents
CONTENTS.................................................................................................................................................... 3

THEGLOBALIMPACTOF THE ................................................................................................................ 8

TECHNETRONICREVOLUTION............................................................................................................... 8
1. THE ONSETOFTHETECHNETRONICAGE ................................................................................................... 10
NewSocialPatterns ................................................................................................................................ 10
SocialExplosion/Implosion ..................................................................................................................... 11
GlobalAbsorption................................................................................................................................... 13
2. THE AMBIVALENTDISSEMINATOR ............................................................................................................ 15
TheAmericanImpact .............................................................................................................................. 15
NewImperialism? ................................................................................................................................... 18
3. GLOBAL GHETTOS................................................................................................................................... 19
ProspectsforChange .............................................................................................................................. 20
TheSubjectiveTransformation ................................................................................................................ 21
ThePoliticalVacuum .............................................................................................................................. 25
4. GLOBAL FRAGMENTATIONAND UNIFICATION ........................................................................................... 26
FragmentedCongestion .......................................................................................................................... 26
TowardaPlanetaryConsciousness ......................................................................................................... 28
THEAGEOFVOLATILE BELIEF............................................................................................................ 31
1. THE QUESTFORA UNIVERSAL VISION...................................................................................................... 31
TheUniversalReligions .......................................................................................................................... 32
TheNationalIdentity............................................................................................................................... 33
IdeologicalUniversalism......................................................................................................................... 34
2. TURBULENCEWITHIN INSTITUTIONALIZEDBELIEFS ................................................................................... 35
InstitutionalMarxism .............................................................................................................................. 35
OrganizedChristianity ............................................................................................................................ 38
PrivatizationofBelief.............................................................................................................................. 40
3. HISTRIONICSASHISTORYINTRANSITION ................................................................................................. 41
EscapefromReason ................................................................................................................................ 42
ThePoliticalDimension .......................................................................................................................... 43
HistoricalDiscontinuity .......................................................................................................................... 45
4. IDEASAND IDEALSBEYOND IDEOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 47
TheQuestforEquality............................................................................................................................. 47
SyncreticBelief ....................................................................................................................................... 48
COMMUNISM:THEPROBLEMOFRELEVANCE ................................................................................ 52
1. THE STALINISTPARADOX......................................................................................................................... 52
TheNecessityofStalinism ....................................................................................................................... 53
ImperialPacification............................................................................................................................... 55
2. THE BUREAUCRATIZATIONOFBOREDOM .................................................................................................. 57
TheInnovativeRelationship .................................................................................................................... 57
DefensiveOrthodoxy ............................................................................................................................... 58
PerspectiveonTomorrow........................................................................................................................ 61
3. THE SOVIETFUTURE ................................................................................................................................ 62
InternalDilemmas................................................................................................................................... 62
AlternativePaths..................................................................................................................................... 66
TheProblemofVitality............................................................................................................................ 69
4. SECTARIANCOMMUNISM......................................................................................................................... 70
Phases .................................................................................................................................................... 70
AssimilatedCommunisms ........................................................................................................................ 71
ChinaandGlobalRevolution .................................................................................................................. 73
THEAMERICANTRANSITION................................................................................................................ 77
1. THE THIRD AMERICANREVOLUTION ........................................................................................................ 78
ThePaceandThrustofProgress............................................................................................................. 79
TheUncertaintyofProgress.................................................................................................................... 81

3
 TheFutilityofPolitics............................................................................................................................. 83
2. THE NEW LEFT REACTION ........................................................................................................................ 86
InfantileIdeology .................................................................................................................................... 86
RevolutionariesinSearchofRevolution................................................................................................... 88
TheHistoricFunctionoftheMilitantLeft ................................................................................................ 90
3. THE CRISISOFLIBERALISM...................................................................................................................... 91
THE LIBERALJANUS .................................................................................................................................... 92
THE PRICEOFVICTORIOUSSKEPTICISM ........................................................................................................ 92
TheEndofLiberalDemocracy? .............................................................................................................. 95
AMERICAANDTHEWORLD .................................................................................................................. 98
1. THE AMERICAN FUTURE........................................................................................................................... 98
ParticipatoryPluralism........................................................................................................................... 99
ChangeinCulturalFormation............................................................................................................... 101
RationalHumanism............................................................................................................................... 103
2. INTERNATIONAL PROSPECTS ................................................................................................................... 104
TheRevolutionaryProcess .................................................................................................................... 105
USA/USSR:LessIntensive,MoreExtensiveRivalry ............................................................................... 107
PolicyImplications................................................................................................................................ 108
3. A COMMUNITYOFTHE DEVELOPEDNATIONS......................................................................................... 111
WesternEuropeandJapan.................................................................................................................... 111
StructureandFocus .............................................................................................................................. 112
TheCommunistStates ........................................................................................................................... 113
RisksandAdvantages............................................................................................................................ 114
REFERENCENOTES................................................................................................................................ 117

INDEX......................................................................................................................................................... 123

4
Introduction
Perhapsthetimeispastforthecomprehensive"grand"vision.Insomeways,itwasanecessary
substituteforignorance,acompensationinbreadthforthelackofdepthinman'sunderstandingof hisworld.But
evenifthisisso,theresultofmoreknowledgemaybegreaterignoranceor,atleast,thefeelingofignorance
aboutwhereweareandwhereweareheading,andparticularlywhereweshouldhead,thanwastruewhenin
factweknewlessbutthoughtweknewmore.
Iamnotsurethatthisneedbeso.Inanycase,Iamnotsatisfiedwiththefragmented,microscopic
understandingoftheparts,andIfeeltheneedforsomeevenifcrudeapproximationofalargerperspective.
Thisbookisanefforttoprovidesuchaperspective.Itisanattempttodefinethemeaningwithinadynamic
frameworkofamajoraspectofourcontemporaryreality:theemergingglobalpoliticalprocesswhich
increasinglyblursthetraditionaldistinctionsbetweendomestic andinternationalpolitics.Inworkingtowardthat
definition,IshallfocusparticularlyonthemeaningfortheUnitedStatesoftheemergenceofthisprocess,
seekingtodrawimplicationsfromanexaminationoftheforcesthataremoldingit.
Timeandspaceshapeourperceptionofreality.Thespecificmomentandtheparticularsettingdictate
thewayinternationalestimatesandprioritiesaredefined.Sometimes,whenthemomentishistorically"ripe,"the
settingandthetimemaycoalescetoprovideaspecialinsight.Aperceptiveformulaiseasiertoarticulateina
momentofspecialstress.Conditionsofwar,crisis,tensionareinthatsenseparticularlyfertile.Thesituationof
crisispermitssharpervaluejudgments,inkeepingwithman'sancientproclivityfordividinghisrealityintogood
andevil.(Marxistdialecticisclearlyinthistradition,anditinfusesmoraldichotomyintoeveryassessment.)But
shortofthatcriticalconditionwhichinitsmostextremeforminvolvesthealternativesofwarorpeace
globalpoliticsdonotlendthemselvestopatformulationsandclearcutpredictions,eveninasettingofextensive
change.Asaresultinmosttimesitisextraordinarilydifficulttoliberateoneselffromtheconfininginfluence
oftheimmediateandtoperceivefromadetachedperspectivethebroadersweepofevents.
Anyabstractattempttoarriveatacapsuleformulaisboundtocontainameasureofdistortion.The
influencesthatconditionrelationsamongstatesandthebroadevolutionof internationalaffairsaretoovarious.
Nonetheless,aslongasweareawarethatanysuchformulationinescapablycontainsagermoffalsehoodand
hencemustbetentativetheattemptrepresentsanadvancetowardatleastapartialunderstanding.The
alternativeiscapitulationtocomplexity:theadmissionthatnosensecanbeextractedfromwhatishappening.
Theconsequenttriumphofignoranceexactsitsowntributeintheformofunstableandreactivepolicies,the
substitutionofslogansforthought, therigidadherencetogeneralizedformulasmadeinanotherageandin
responsetocircumstancesthataredifferentinessencefromourown,evenifsuperficiallysimilar.
Today,themostindustriallyadvancedcountries(inthefirstinstance,theUnitedStates)arebeginning
toemergefromtheindustrialstageoftheirdevelopment.Theyareenteringanageinwhichtechnologyand
especiallyelectronicshencemyneologism"technetronic"*areincreasinglybecomingtheprincipal
determinantsofsocialchange,alteringthemores,thesocialstructure,thevalues,andtheglobaloutlookof
society.Andpreciselybecausetodaychangeissorapidandsocomplex,itisperhapsmoreimportantthanever
beforethatourconductofforeignaffairsbeguidedbyasenseofhistoryandtospeakofhistoryinthis
contextistospeaksimultaneouslyofthepastandofthefuture.
Sinceitfocusesoninternationalaffairs,thisbookisatmostonlyaverypartialresponsetotheneedfor
amorecomprehensiveassessment.It isnotanattempttosumupthehumancondition,tocombinephilosophy
andscience,toprovideanswerstomoreperplexingquestionsconcerningourreality.Itismuchmoremodest
thanthat,andyetIamuneasilyawarethatitisalreadymuchtooambitious,becauseitunavoidablytoucheson
alltheseissues.
Thebookisdividedintofivemajorparts.Thefirstdealswiththeimpactofthescientifictechnological
revolutiononworldaffairsingeneral,discussingmorespecificallytheambiguouspositionof theprincipal
disseminatorofthatrevolutiontheUnitedStatesandanalyzingtheeffectsoftherevolutiononthesocalled
ThirdWorld.Thesecondpartexamineshowtheforegoingconsiderationshaveaffectedthecontent,style,and
formatofman'spoliticaloutlookonhisglobalreality,withparticularreferencetothechangingroleofideology.
Thethirdpartassessesthecontemporaryrelevanceofcommunismtoproblemsofmodernity,lookingfirstatthe
experienceoftheSovietUnionandthenexaminingtheoverallconditionofinternationalcommunismasa
movementthatoncesoughttocombineinternationalismandhumanism.ThefourthpartfocusesontheUnited
States,asocietythatisbothasocialpioneerandaguineapigformankinditseeksto definethethrustofchange
andthehistoricalmeaningofthecurrentAmericantransition.Thefifthpartoutlinesinverybroadtermsthe
generaldirectionsthatAmericamighttakeinordertomakeaneffectiveresponsetothepreviouslydiscussed
foreignanddomesticdilemmas.
Havingsaidwhatthebookdoesattempt,itmightbehelpfultothereaderalsotoindicatewhatitdoes
notattempt.Firstofall,itisnotanexercisein"futurology"itisanefforttomakesenseofpresenttrends,to
developadynamicperspectiveonwhatishappening.Secondly,itisnotapolicybook,inthesensethatitsobject
isnottodevelopsystematicallyacoherentseriesofprescriptionsandprograms.InPartV,however,itdoestry
toindicatethegeneraldirectionstowardwhichAmericashouldand,insomerespects,mayhead.
Inthecourseofdevelopingthesetheses,Ihaveexpandedonsomeoftheideasinitiallyadvancedinmy
article"AmericaintheTechnetronicAge,"published inEncounter,January1968,whichgaveriseto
considerablecontroversy.IshouldaddthatnotonlyhaveItriedtoamplifyandclarifysomeoftherather

5
condensedpointsmadeinthatarticle,butIhavesignificantlyrevisedsomeofmyviewsinthelightof
constructivecriticismsmadebymycolleagues.Moreover,thatarticleaddresseditselftoonlyoneaspect
(discussedprimarilyinPartI)ofthemuchlargercanvasthatIhavetriedtopaintinthisvolume.
Itismyhopethatthisessaywillhelptoprovidethereaderwithabettergraspofthenatureofthe
politicalworldwelivein,oftheforcesshapingit,ofthedirectionsitispursuing.Inthatsense,itmightperhaps
contributetoasharperperceptionofthenewpoliticalprocessesenvelopingourworldandmovebeyondthe
moretraditionalformsofexamininginternationalpolitics.Ihope,too,thatthetentativepropositions,the
generalizations,andthethesesadvancedherethoughnecessarilyspeculative,arbitrary,andinverymany
respectsinescapablyinadequatemaycontributetotheincreasingdiscussionofAmerica'sroleintheworld.
Inthecourseofthework,Ihaveexpressedmyownopinionsandexposedmyprejudices.Thiseffortis,
therefore,moreinthenatureofa"thinkpiece,"backedbyevidence,thanofasystematicexerciseinsocial
science methodology.*
Finally,letmeendthisintroductionwithaconfessionthatsomewhatanticipatesmyargument:an
apocalypticmindedreadermayfindmythesisuncongenialbecausemyviewofAmerica'sroleintheworldis
stillanoptimisticone.Isay"still"becauseIamgreatlytroubledbythedilemmaswefaceathomeandabroad,
andevenmoresobythesocialandphilosophicalimplicationsofthedirectionofchangeinourtime.
Nonetheless,myoptimismisreal.AlthoughIdonotmeantominimizethegravityofAmerica's
problemstheircatalogueislong,thedilemmasareacute,andthesignsofameaningfulresponseareatmost
ambivalentItrulybelievethatthissocietyhasthecapacity,the talent,thewealth,and,increasingly,thewillto
surmountthedifficultiesinherentinthiscurrenthistorictransition.

*
Inthisrespect,IsharetheviewofBarringtonMoore,Jr.,that"whenwesetthedominantbodyofcurrentthinkingagainstimportantfigures
inthenineteenthcentury,thefollowingdifferencesemerge.Firstofall,thecriticalspirithasallbutdisappeared.Second,modernsociology,
andperhapstoalesserextentalsomodernpoliticalscience,economics,andpsychology,areahistorical.Third,modernsocialsciencetends
tobeabstractandformal.Inresearch,socialsciencetodaydisplaysconsiderabletechnicalvirtuosity. Butthisvirtuosityhasbeengainedat
theexpenseofcontent.Modernsociologyhaslesstosayaboutsocietythanitdidfiftyyearsago"(PoliticalPowerandSocialTheory,
Cambridge,Mass.,1958,p.123).

6
BETWEENTWOAGES
"Humanlifeisreducedtorealsuffering,tohell,onlywhentwoages,twoculturesandreligionsoverlap.. ..
Therearetimeswhenawholegenerationiscaughtinthiswaybetweentwoages,twomodesoflife,withthe
consequencethatitlosesallpowertounderstanditselfandhasnostandard,nosecurity,nosimple
acquiescence."
HERMANN HESSE, Steppenwolf

7
PARTI
TheGlobalImpactofthe
TechnetronicRevolution
Theparadoxofourtimeisthathumanityisbecomingsimultaneouslymoreunifiedandmore
fragmented.Thatistheprincipalthrustofcontemporarychange.Timeandspacehavebecomesocompressed
thatglobalpoliticsmanifestatendencytowardlarger,moreinterwovenformsofcooperationaswellastoward
thedissolutionofestablishedinstitutionalandideologicalloyalties.Humanityisbecomingmoreintegraland
intimateevenasthedifferencesintheconditionoftheseparatesocietiesarewidening.Underthese
circumstancesproximity,insteadofpromotingunity,givesrisetotensionspromptedbyanewsenseofglobal
congestion.
Anewpatternofinternationalpoliticsisemerging.Theworldisceasingtobeanarenainwhich
relativelyselfcontained,"sovereign,"andhomogeneousnationsinteract,collaborate,clash,ormakewar.
Internationalpolitics,intheoriginalsenseoftheterm,werebornwhengroupsofpeoplebegantoidentify
themselvesandothersinmutuallyexclusiveterms(territory,language,symbols,beliefs),andwhenthat
identificationbecameinturnthedominantfactorinrelationsbetweenthesegroups.Theconceptofnational
interestbasedongeographicalfactors, traditionalanimositiesorfriendships,economics,andsecurityconsid
erationsimpliedadegreeofautonomyandspecificitythatwaspossibleonlysolongasnationswere
sufficientlyseparatedintimeandspacetohaveboththeroomtomaneuverandthe distanceneededtomaintain
separateidentity.
Duringtheclassicaleraofinternationalpolitics,weapons,communications,economics,andideology
wereallessentiallynationalinscope.Withtheinventionofmodernartillery,weaponryrequirednational
arsenalsandstandingarmiesinmorerecenttimesitcouldbeeffectivelyandrapidlydeployedbyonenation
againstthefrontiersofanother.Communications,especiallysincetheinventionofthesteamengineandthe
resultingageofrailroads,reinforcednationalintegrationbymakingitpossibletomovepeopleandgoodsacross
mostnationsinaperiodoftimerarelyexceedingtwodays.Nationaleconomies,frequentlyrestingonautarkic
principles,stimulatedboththeawarenessandthedevelopmentofcollectivevestedinterest,protectedbytariff
walls.Nationalismsopersonalizedcommunityfeelingsthatthenationbecameanextensionoftheego.*
Allfourfactorsmentionedabovearenowbecomingglobal.Weaponsoftotaldestructivepowercanbe
appliedatanypointontheglobeinamatterofminutesinlesstime,infact,thanittakesforthepoliceina
majorcitytorespondtoanemergencycall.Theentireglobeisincloserreachandtouchthanamiddlesized
Europeanpowerwastoitsowncapital fiftyyearsago.Transnationaltiesaregaininginimportance,whilethe
claimsofnationalism,thoughstillintense,arenonethelessbecomingdiluted.Thischange,naturally,hasgone
furthestinthemostadvancedcountries,butnocountryisnowimmunetoit.Theconsequenceisaneweraan
eraoftheglobalpoliticalprocess.
Yetthoughtheprocessisglobal,realunityofmankindremainsremote.Thecontemporaryworldis
undergoingachangeinmanyrespectssimilartothatpromptedbytheearlierappearanceoflargepopulation
centers.Thegrowthofsuchcentersweakenedintimateanddirectlinesofauthorityandcontributedtothe
appearanceofmanyconflictingandcrosscuttingallegiances.Atypicalcitydwelleridentifieshimself
simultaneouslywithavarietyofgroupsoccupational,religious,leisure,political andonlyrarelyoperatesin
anenvironmentthatisexclusivelydominatedbyasinglesystemofvaluesandaunilinearpersonalcommitment.
Americanmetropolitanpoliticsaretypicallymessy:specialinterestandpressuregroups,ethniccommunities,
politicalorganizations,religiousinstitutions,majorindustrialorfinancialforces,andeventhecriminal
underworldinteractinapatternthatsimultaneouslyincludescontinuouslimitedwarfare andaccommodation.
Globalpolitiesareacquiringsomeanalogouscharacteristics.Nationsofdifferentsizesand
developmentallyindifferenthistoricalepochsinteract,creatingfriction,variablepatternsofaccommodation,and
changingalignments.While theformalrulesofthegamemaintaintheillusionthatitisplayedonlybythose
playerscalled"states"and,whenwarbreaksout,thestatesbecometheonlysignificantplayersshortofwar
thegameis trulyplayedonamuchmoreinformalbasis,withmuchmoremixedparticipation.Somestates
possessoverwhelmingpowerothers,the"ministates,"areovershadowedbymultimilliondollarinternational
corporations,majorbanks.andfinancialinterests,transnationalorganizationsofreligiousorideological
character,andtheemerginginternationalinstitutionsthatinsomecases"represent"theinterestsoftheminor
players(forexample,theUN)orinothercasesmaskthepowerofthemajorones(forexample,theWarsawPact
orSEATO).
Themethodsforcopingwithinternationalconflictsarehence becomingsimilartothosefordealing

*
Thiswasamajorchangefromtheearlierfeudalage.Atthattimeweaponswerelargelypersonal,communicationswere
verylimitedandprimarilyoral,theeconomywasprimitiveandrural,andideologystresseddirect,religionbasedobeisancetoa
personallyknownchief.Theseconditionsthusreinforcedandreflectedamorefragmented"intranational"politicalprocess.

8
withurbandiscord.Acharacteristicfeatureofconcentratedhumanityistheroutinizationofconflict.Direct
violencebecomesincreasinglyregulatedandrestricted,andultimatelycomestobeconsideredasadeviation
fromthenorm.Organizedmechanisms,intheformofuniformed,salariedpersonnel,areestablishedtoconfine
violencetosociallytolerablelimits.Acertainmeasureofcrimeisacceptedasunavoidableforthesakeoforder,
therefore,organizedcrimeisgenerallypreferredtoanarchicviolence,thusindirectlyandinformallybecoming
anextensionoforder.
Theroutinizationofconflictonaglobalscalehasbeenthegoalofstatesmenformanydecades.
Agreements,conventions,andpactshavesoughttogovernit.Noneofthesecouldproveeffectiveinasystemof
relativelydistinctiveandsovereignunitsbuttheappearanceofrapidcommunications,whichcreatednotonly
physicalproximitybutalsoinstantawarenessofdistantevents,andtheonsetofthenuclearage,whichforthe
firsttimemadetrulydestructiveglobalpoweravailabletoatleasttwostates,fundamentallyalteredthepatternof
internationalconflict.Ontheonehandthesefactorsdepresseditslevel,andontheothertheyheightenedits
potentialandincreaseditsscope.
Urbanunderworldwarsdonotgiverisetomuchmoralrevulsionnoraretheyseenasmajorthreatsto
socialpeace.Onlyoutbreaksofviolencedirectedatthatpeace,as representedbyhumanlifeandmajorvested
interestsbanks,shops,orprivateproperty,forexampleareresolutelycombated.Similarly,inthemore
advancedportionsoftheworldthereisatendencyamongtheestablishmentandthemiddleclassofthe"global
city"tobeindifferenttoThirdWorldconflictsandtoviewthemasnecessaryattributesofalowlevelof
developmentprovided,ofcourse,thatsuchconflictsdonotfeedbackintotherelationsamongthemore
powerfulstates.WarsintheThirdWorld thusseemtolerableaslongastheirinternationalscaleiscontainedata
levelthatdoesnotseemtothreatenmajorinterests.*
Inourtimetheroutinizationofconflicthasalsomeantashiftfromsustainedwarfaretosporadic
outbreaksofviolence.Sustained,prolongedwarfarewasmadepossiblebytheindustrialage.Inearliertimes
armiesconfrontedeachother,foughtpitched,headonbattles,and,likegladiatorsofold,scoreddecisivevic
toriesorwentdownindefeat.Theindustrialagepermittedsocietiestomobilizetheirmanpowerandresources
forprolongedbutindecisivestrugglesresemblingclassicalwrestlingandrequiringbothskillandendurance.
Nuclearweaponsneverusedinconflictbetweennuclearpowersposethepossibilityofsuchmutual
annihilationthattheytendtofreezetheirpossessorsintopassiverestraint,withsporadicoutbreaksofViolence
occurringontheperipheriesoftheconfrontation.Though,inthepast,violencetendedtoresultintheuseof
maximumavailablepower,todaythosestatespossessingmaximumpowerstrivetoemployaminimuminthe
assertionoftheirinterests.
Sincetheappearanceofnuclearweapons,relationsbetweenthesuperpowershavebeengovernedbya
rudimentarycodeofrestraintforgedbytrialanderrorinthecourseofconfrontationsrangingfromKorea
throughBerlintoCuba.Itislikelythatintheabsenceoftheseweaponswarwouldlongsincehavebrokenout
betweentheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnion.Theirdestructivepowerhasthus hadabasiceffectonthe
degreetowhichforceisappliedintherelationsamongstates,compellinganunprecedenteddegreeofprudence
inthe behaviourofthemostpowerfulstates.Withinthefragileframeworkinwhichthecontemporary
transformationofourrealityoccurs,nuclearweaponshavethuscreatedanentirelynovelsystemofdeterrence
fromtherelianceonoverwhelmingpower.
Inthecaseofurbanpolitics,theweaknessofacceptedandrespectedimmediateauthorityis
compensatedforbythesenseofhigherallegiancetothenation,asrepresentedbytheinstitutionalexpressionof
statepower.Theglobalcitylacksthathigherdimensionandmuchofthecontemporarysearchfororderisan
attempttocreateit,ortofindsomeequilibriumshortof it.Otherwise,however,globalpoliticsaresimilarly
characterizedbytheconfusingpatternofinvolvement,congestion,andinteraction,whichcumulatively,though
gradually,underminestheexclusivenessandtheprimacyofthosehithertorelativelywatertightcompartments,
thenationstates.Intheprocess,internationalpoliticsgraduallybecomeamuchmoreintimateandoverlapping
process.
Erasarehistoricalabstractions.Theyarealsoanintellectualconvenience:theyaremeantto bemilestonesona
roadthatoveraperiodoftimechangesimperceptiblyandyetquiteprofoundly.Itisamatterofarbitrary
judgmentwhenoneeraendsandanewonebeginsneithertheendnorthebeginningcanbeclearlyandsharply
defined.Ontheformalplane,politicsasaglobalprocessoperatemuchastheydidinthepast,buttheinner
realityofthatprocessisincreasinglyshapedbyforceswhoseinfluenceorscopetranscendnationallines.

*
duringthepost1945years,thedevelopmentofnuclearweapons,theformationofpowerblocsandmultilateralalliancesystems,andthein
creasingfinancialcostofmodernwarfare,haveallbeenfactorsinhibitingtheoutbreakofformalwarfarebetweentheadvanced,industrial
nations.Themajorityof'conflicts'duringtheseyearshavetakenplaceinAfrica,theMiddleEastandAsia,thesocalledThirdWorld.Anda
largenumberofthemhavefollowedonorbeenassociatedwiththebreakupofcolonialempires,whetherOttoman,British,Frenchor
Japanese,andthesubsequentemergenceofnewstateswhichareoftensmall,poorandinsecure"(DavidWood,"ConflictintheTwentieth
Century,"AdelphiPapers,June1968,p.19).Theabovestudycontainsalistofeightyconflictsthathaveoccurredintheyears19451967.
AllbuteightoftheseconflictsinvolvedThirdWorldparticipantsonbothsides.
Theanalogywithmetropolitanpoliticsis alsomadebyTheodoreH.VonLaueinhisthoughtfulbook TheGlobalCity(NewYork,1969).
VonLauejsparticularlystimulatinginhisanalysisoftheimpactoftheWestern"metropolitan"systemonworldpoliticsduringthelast
century.

9
1.TheOnsetoftheTechnetronicAge
Theimpactofscienceandtechnology onmanandhissociety,especiallyinthemoreadvanced
countriesoftheworld,isbecomingthemajorsourceofcontemporarychange.Recentyearshaveseena
proliferationofexcitingandchallengingliteratureonthefuture.IntheUnitedStates,inWesternEurope,and,to
alesserdegree,inJapanandintheSovietUnion,anumberofsystematic,scholarlyeffortshavebeenmadeto
project,predict,andgraspwhatthefutureholdsforus.
Thetransformationthatisnowtakingplace,especiallyinAmerica, isalreadycreatingasociety
increasinglyunlikeitsindustrialpredecessor.1 Thepostindustrialsocietyisbecominga"technetronic"society:*
asocietythatisshapedculturally,psychologically,socially,andeconomicallybytheimpactoftechnologyand
electronicsparticularlyintheareaofcomputersandcommunications.Theindustrialprocessisnolongerthe
principaldeterminantofsocialchange,alteringthemores,thesocialstructure,andthevaluesofsociety.Inthe
industrialsocietytechnicalknowledgewasappliedprimarilytoonespecificend:theaccelerationand
improvementofproduction techniques.Socialconsequenceswerealaterbyproductofthisparamountconcern.
Inthe technetronicsocietyscientificandtechnicalknowledge,inadditiontoenhancingproduction
capabilities,quicklyspillsovertoaffectalmostallaspectsoflifedirectly.Accordingly,boththegrowing
capacityfortheinstantcalculationofthemostcomplexinteractionsandtheincreasingavailabilityof
biochemicalmeansofhumancontrolaugmentthepotentialscopeofconsciouslychosendirection,andthereby
alsothepressurestodirect,tochoose,andtochange.
Relianceonthesenewtechniquesofcalculationandcommunicationenhancesthesocialimportanceof
humanintelligenceandtheimmediaterelevanceoflearning.Theneedtointegratesocialchangeisheightened
bytheincreasedabilitytodecipherthepatternsofchangethisinturnincreasesthesignificanceofbasic
assumptionsconcerningthenatureofmanandthedesirabilityofoneoranotherformofsocialorganization.
Sciencetherebyintensifiesratherthandiminishestherelevanceofvalues,butit demandsthattheybecastin
termsthatgobeyondthemorecrudeideologiesoftheindustrialage.(ThisthemeisdevelopedfurtherinPartII.)

NewSocialPatterns
ForNorbertWiener,"thelocusofanearlierindustrialrevolutionbeforethemainindustrialrevolution"istobe
foundinthefifteenthcenturyresearchpertainingtonavigation(thenauticalcompass),aswellasinthe
developmentofgunpowderandprinting.2 Todaythefunctionalequivalentofnavigationisthethrustintospace,
whichrequiresarapidcomputingcapacitybeyondthemeansofthehumanbraintheequivalentofgunpowderis
modernnuclearphysics,andthatofprintingistelevisionandlongrangeinstantcommunications.The
consequenceofthisnewtechnetronicrevolutionistheprogressiveemergenceofasocietythatincreasingly
differsfromtheindustrialone inavarietyofeconomic,political,andsocialaspects.Thefollowingexamples
maybebrieflycitedtosummarizesomeofthecontrasts:
(1)Inanindustrialsocietythemodeofproductionshiftsfrom
agriculturetoindustry,withtheuseofhumanandanimalmusclesupplantedbymachineoperation.Inthe
technetronicsocietyindustrialemploymentyieldstoservices,withautomationandcyberneticsreplacingthe
operationofmachinesbyindividuals.
(2)Problemsofemploymentandunemploymenttosaynothingofthepriorurbanizationofthepostrural
laborforcedominatetherelationshipbetweenemployers,labor,andthemarketintheindustrialsociety,and
theassuranceofminimumwelfaretothenewindustrialmassesisasourceofmajorconcern.Intheemerging
newsocietyquestionsrelatingtotheobsolescenceofskills,security,vacations,leisure,andprofitsharing
dominatetherelationship,andthepsychicwellbeingofmillionsofrelativelysecurebutpotentiallyaimless
lowermiddleclassbluecollarworkersbecomesagrowingproblem.
(3)Breakingdowntraditionalbarrierstoeducation,andthuscreatingthebasicpointofdepartureforsocial
advancement,isamajorgoalofsocialreformersintheindustrialsociety.Education,availableforlimitedand
specificperiodsoftime,isinitiallyconcernedwithovercomingilliteracyandsubsequentlywithtechnical
training,basedlargelyonwritten,sequentialreasoning.Inthetechnetronicsocietynotonlyiseducation
universalbutadvancedtrainingisavailabletoalmostallwhohavethebasictalents,andthereisfargreater
emphasisonqualityselection.Theessentialproblemistodiscoverthemosteffectivetechniquesfortherational
exploitationofsocialtalent.Thelatestcommunicationandcalculatingtechniquesareemployedinthistask.The
educationalprocessbecomesalengthieroneandisincreasinglyreliantonaudiovisualaids.Inaddition,theflow
ofnewknowledgenecessitatesmoreandmorefrequentrefresherstudies.
(4) Intheindustrialsocietysocialleadershipshiftsfromthetraditionalruralaristocratictoanurbanplutocratic
elite.Newlyacquiredwealthisitsfoundation,andintensecompetitiontheoutletaswellasthestimulusfor
itsenergy.Inthetechnetronicsocietyplutocraticpreeminenceischallengedbythepoliticalleadership,whichis
itselfincreasinglypermeatedbyindividuals

*
Theterm"postindustrial"isusedbyDanielBell,whohasdonemuchofthepioneeringthinkingonthesubject.However,Iprefertouse
theneologism"technetronic,"becauseitconveysmoredirectlythecharacteroftheprincipalimpulsesforchangeinourtime.Similarly,the
term"industrial"describedwhatotherwisecouldhavebeencalledthe"postagricultural"age.

10
possessingspecialskillsandintellectualtalents.Knowledgebecomesatoolofpowerandtheeffective
mobilizationoftalentanimportantwaytoacquirepower.
(5)Theuniversityinanindustrialsocietyincontrasttothesituationinmedievaltimesisanaloofivory
tower,therepositoryofirrelevant,evenifrespected,wisdom,andforabrieftimethefountainheadforbudding
membersoftheestablishedsocialelite.Inthetechnetronicsocietytheuniversitybecomesanintensely involved
"thinktank,"thesourceofmuchsustainedpoliticalplanningandsocialinnovation.
(6)Theturmoilinherentintheshiftfromarigidlytraditionalruralsocietytoanurbanoneengendersan
inclinationtoseektotalanswerstosocialdilemmas,thuscausingideologiestothriveintheindustrializing
society.(TheAmericanexceptiontothisrulewasduetotheabsenceofafeudaltradition,apointwelldeveloped
byLouisHartz.)Intheindustrialageliteracymakesforstaticinterrelatedconceptualthinking,congenialto
ideologicalsystems.Inthetechnetronicsocietyaudiovisualcommunicationspromptmorechangeable,disparate
viewsofreality,notcompressibleintoformalsystems,evenastherequirementsofscienceandthenew
computativetechniquesplaceapremiumonmathematicallogicandsystematicreasoning.Theresultingtension
isfeltmostacutelybyscientists,withtheconsequencethatsomeseektoconfinereasontosciencewhile
expressingtheiremotionsthroughpolitics.Moreover,theincreasingabilitytoreducesocialconflictsto
quantifiableandmeasurabledimensionsreinforcesthetrendtowardamorepragmaticapproachtosocial
problems,whileitsimultaneouslystimulatesnewconcernswithpreserving"humane"values.
(7)Intheindustrialsociety,asthehithertopassivemassesbecomeactivethereareintensepoliticalconflicts
oversuchmattersasdisenfranchisementandtherighttovote.Theissueofpoliticalparticipationisacrucialone.
Inthetechnetronicagethequestionisincreasinglyoneofensuringrealparticipationindecisionsthatseemtoo
complexandtoofarremovedfromtheaveragecitizen.Politicalalienationbecomesaproblem.Similarly,the
issueofpoliticaleqaalityofthesexesgiveswaytoastruggleforthesexualequalityofwomen.Intheindustrial
societywoman__theoperatorofmachinesceasestobephysicallyinferiorto themale,aconsiderationofsome
importanceinrurallife,andbeginstodemandherpoliticalrights.Intheemergingtechnetronicsociety
automationthreatensbothmalesandfemales,intellectualtalentiscomputable,the"pill"encouragessexual
equality,andwomenbegintoclaimcompleteequality.
(8)Thenewlyenfranchisedmassesareorganizedintheindustrialsocietybytradeunionsandpoliticalparties
andunifiedbyrelativelysimpleandsomewhatideologicalprograms.Moreover,politicalattitudesareinfluenced
byappealstonationalistsentiments,communicatedthroughthemassiveincreaseofnewspapersemploying,
naturally,thereaders'nationallanguage.Inthetechnetronicsocietythetrendseemstobetowardaggregatingthe
individualsupportofmillionsofunorganizedcitizens,whoareeasilywithinthereachofmagneticandattractive
personalities,andeffectivelyexploitingthelatestcommunicationtechniquestomanipulateemotionsandcontrol
reason.Relianceontelevisionandhencethetendencytoreplacelanguagewithimagery,whichisinternational
ratherthannational,andtoincludewarcoverageorscenesofhungerinplacesasdistantas,forexample,India
createsasomewhatmorecosmopolitan,thoughhighlyimpressionistic, involvementinglobalaffairs.
(9)Economicpowerintheearlyphaseofindustrializationtendstobepersonalized,byeithergreat
entrepreneurslikeHenryFordorbureaucraticindustrialofficialslikeKaganovich,orMine(inStalinistPoland).
Thetendencytowarddepersonalizationeconomicpowerisstimulatedinthenextstagebytheappearanceofa
highlycomplexinterdependencebetweengovernmentalinstitutions(includingthemilitary),scientific
establishments,andindustrialorganizations.Aseconomicpowerbecomesinseparablylinkedwithpolitical
power,itbecomesmoreinvisibleandthesenseofindividualfutilityincfeases.
(10)Inanindustrialsocietytheacquisitionofgoodsandtheaccumulationofpersonalwealthbecomeformsof
socialattainmentforanunprecedentedlylargenumberofpeople.Inthetechnetronicsocietytheadaptationof
sciencetohumaneendsandagrowingconcernwiththequalityoflifebecomebothpossibleandincreasinglya
moralimperativeforalargenumberofcitizens,especiallytheyoung.
Eventually,thesechangesandmanyothers,includingsomethatmoredirectlyaffectthepersonalityand
qualityofthehumanbeinghimself,willmakethetechnetronicsocietyasdifferentfromtheindustrialasthe
industrialwasfromtheagrarian.* Andjustastheshiftfromanagrarianeconomyandfeudalpoliticstowardan
industrialsocietyandpoliticalsystemsbasedontheindividual'semotionalidentificationwiththenationstate
gaverisetocontemporaryinternational politics,sotheappearanceofthetechnetronicsocietyreflectstheonset
ofanewrelationshipbetweenmanandhisexpandedglobalreality.

SocialExplosion/Implosion
Thisnewrelationshipisatenseone:manhasstilltodefineitconceptuallyandtherebyrenderit
comprehensibletohimself.Ourexpandedglobalrealityissimultaneouslyfragmentingandthrustingitselfin
uponus.Theresultofthecoincidentexplosionandimplosionisnotonlyinsecurityandtensionbutalso anen
tirelynovelperceptionofwhatmanystillcallinternationalaffairs.

*
Belldefinesthe"fivedimensionsofthepostindustrialsociety"asinvolvingthefollowing:(l)Thecreationofaserviceeconomy.(2)The
preeminenceoftheprofessionalandtechnicalclass.(3)Thecentralityoftheoreticalknowledgeasthesourceofinnovationandpolicy
formulationinthesociety.(4)Thepossibilityofselfsustainingtechnologicalgrowth.(5)Thecreationofanew"intellectualtechnology."
(DanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"inIndicatorsofSocialChange,EleanorSheldonandWilbertMoore,eds.,
NewYork,1968,pp.15253.)

11
Lifeseemstolackcohesionasenvironmentrapidlyaltersandhumanbeingsbecomeincreasinglymanipulable
andmalleable.Everythingseemsmoretransitoryandtemporary:externalreality morefluidthansolid,the
humanbeingmoresyntheticthanauthentic.Evenoursensesperceiveanentirelynovel"reality"oneofour
ownmakingbutnevertheless,intermsof oursensations,quite"real."* Moreimportant,thereisalready
widespreadconcernaboutthepossibilityofbiologicalandchemicaltamperingwithwhathasuntilnowbeen
consideredtheimmutableessenceofman.Humanconduct,someargue,canbepredeterminedandsubjectedto
deliberatecontrol.Manisincreasinglyacquiringthecapacitytodetermine thesexofhischildren,toaffect
throughdrugstheextentoftheirintelligence,andtomodifyandcontroltheirpersonalities.Speakingofafuture
atmostonlydecadesaway,anexperimenterinintelligencecontrolasserted,"Iforeseethetimewhenwe shall
havethemeansandtherefore,inevitably,thetemptationtomanipulatethe behaviourandintellectualfunctioning
ofallthepeoplethroughenvironmentalandbiochemicalmanipulationofthebrain."3
Thusitisanopenquestionwhethertechnologyandsciencewillinfactincreasetheoptionsopentothe
individual.Undertheheadline"StudyTermsTechnologyaBoontoIndividualism,"4TheNewYorkTimes
reportedthepreliminaryconclusionsofaHarvardprojectonthesocialsignificanceofscience.Itsparticipants
werequotedasconcludingthat"mostAmericanshaveagreaterrangeofpersonalchoice,widerexperienceanda
morehighlydevelopedsenseofselfworththaneverbefore."Thismaybeso,butajudgmentofthissortrests
essentiallyonanintuitive andcomparativeinsightintothepresentandpaststatesofmindofAmericans.In
thisconnectionawordofwarningfromanacuteobserverishighlyrelevant:"Itbehavesustoexaminecarefully
thedegreeofvalidity,asmeasuredbyactual behaviour,ofthestatementthatabenefitoftechnologywillbeto
increasethenumberofoptionsandalternativestheindividualcanchoose from.Inprinciple,itcouldinfact,the
individualmayuseanynumberofpsychologicaldevicestoavoidthediscomfortofinformationoverload,and
therebykeeptherangeofalternativestowhichherespondsmuchnarrowerthanthatwhichtechnologyin
principlemakesavailabletohim."5 Inotherwords,therealquestionsarehowtheindividualwillexploitthe
options,towhatextenthewillbeintellectuallyandpsychologicallypreparedtoexploitthem,andinwhatway
societyasawholewillcreateafavorablesettingfortakingadvantageoftheseoptions.Theiravailabilityisnot
ofitselfproofofagreatersenseoffreedomorselfworth.
Insteadofacceptinghimselfasaspontaneousgiven,maninthemostadvancedsocietiesmaybecome
moreconcernedwithconsciousselfanalysisaccordingtoexternal,explicitcriteria:WhatismyIQ?Whatare
myaptitudes,personalitytraits,capabilities,attractions,andnegativefeatures?The"internalman"
spontaneouslyacceptinghisownspontaneitywillmoreandmorebechallengedbythe"externalman"
consciouslyseekinghisselfconsciousimageandthetransitionfromonetotheothermaynotbeeasy.Itwill
alsogiverisetodifficultproblemsindeterminingthelegitimatescopeofsocialcontrol.The possibilityof
extensivechemicalmindcontrol,thedangeroflossofindividualityinherentinextensivetransplantation,the
feasibilityofmanipulatingthegeneticstructurewillcallforthesocialdefinitionofcommoncriteriaofuseand
restraint.Asthepreviouslycited,writerputit,"...whilethechemicalaffectstheindividual,thepersonis
significanttohimselfandtosocietyinhissocial context atwork,athome,atplay.Theconsequencesare
socialconsequences.Indecidinghowtodealwithsuchalterersoftheegoandofexperience(andconsequently
alterersofthepersonalityaftertheexperience),andindecidinghowtodealwiththe'changed'humanbeings,we
willhavetofacenewquestionssuchas'WhoamI?''WhenamIwho?"'Whoare they inrelationtome?'"6
Moreover,manwillincreasinglybelivinginmanmadeandrapidlymanalteredenvironments.Bythe
endofthiscenturyapproximatelytwothirdsofthepeopleintheadvancedcountriesillliveincities."Urban
growthhassofarbeenprimarilythebyproductofaccidentaleconomicconvenience,ofthemagneticattraction
ofpopulationcenters,andoftheflightofmanyfromruralpovertyandexploitation.Ithasnotbeendeliberately
designedtoimprovethequalityoflife.Theimpactof"accidental"citiesisalreadycontributingtothe
depersonalizationofindividuallifeasthekinshipstructurecontractsandenduringrelationsoffriendshipbecome
moredifficulttomaintain.JulianHuxleywasperhapsguiltyofonlyslightexaggerationwhenhewarnedthat
"overcrowdinginanimalsleadstodistortedneuroticanddownrightpathological behaviour.Wecanbesurethat
thesameistrueinprincipleofpeople.Citylifetodayisdefinitelyleadingtomassmentaldisease,togrowing
vandalismandpossibleeruptionsofmassviolence." 7
Theproblemofidentityislikelytobecomplicatedbyagenerationgap,intensifiedbythedissolutionof
traditionaltiesandvaluesderivedfromextendedfamilyandenduringcommunityrelationships.Thedialogue
*
Belldefinesthe"fivedimensionsofthepostindustrialsociety"asinvolvingthefollowing:(l)Thecreationofaserviceeconomy.(2)The
preeminenceoftheprofessionalandtechnicalclass.(3)Thecentralityoftheoreticalknowledgeasthesourceofinnovationandpolicy
formulationinthesociety.(4)Thepossibilityofselfsustainingtechnologicalgrowth.(5)Thecreationofanew"intellectualtechnology."
(DanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"inIndicatorsofSocialChange,EleanorSheldonandWilbertMoore,eds.,
NewYork,1968,pp.15253.)

In1900therewere10citieswithpopulationsofonemillionormorein1955thenumberhadgrownto61in1965therewereover100
citieswithpopulationsofonemillionormore.TodayinAustraliaandOceaniathreequartersofthepeopleliveincitiesin Americaand
Europe(theUSSRincluded)onehalfdoinAfricaandAsiaonefifthliveincities.

/G.N.Carstairs,in"WhyIsManAggressive?"(ImpactofScienceonSowty,AprilJune1968,p.90),arguesthatpopulationgrowth,
crowding,andsocialoppressionallcontributetoirrationalandintensifiedaggression,experimentsonratsseemtobearthisoutobservation
ofhumanbehaviorinlargecitiesseemstowarrantasimilarconclusion.ForacriducceuragainstthiscongestedconditionfromaFrench
sociologist,seeJacquesEllul,The1technologicalSociety,NewYork,1965,p.321.

12
betweenthegenerationsisbecomingadialogueofthedeaf.Itnolongeroperateswithintheconservativeliberal
ornationalistinternationalistframework.Thebreakdownincommunicationbetweenthegenerationssovividly
evidentduringthestudentrevoltsof1968wasrootedintheirrelevanceoftheoldsymbols'tomanyyounger
people.Debate impliestheacceptanceofacommonframeofreferenceandlanguagesincethesewerelacking,
debatebecameincreasinglyimpossible!
Thoughcurrentlytheclashisovervalueswithmanyoftheyoungrejectingthoseoftheirelders,who
inturncontendthat theyounghaveevadedtheresponsibilityofarticulatingtheirs inthefuturetheclash
betweengenerationswillbealsooverexpertise.Withinafewyearstherebelsinthemoreadvancedcountries
whotodayhavethemostvisibilitywillbejoinedbya newgenerationmakingitsclaimtopoweringovernment
andbusiness:agenerationtrainedtoreasonlogicallyasaccustomedtoexploitingelectronicaidstohuman
reasoningaswehavebeentousingmachinestoincreaseourownmobilityexpressingitself inalanguagethat
functionallyrelatestotheseaidsacceptingasroutinemanagerialprocessescurrentinnovationssuchas
planningprogrammingbudgetingsystems(PPBS)andtheappearanceinhighbusinessechelonsof"top
computerexecutives."8Asthe olderelitedefendswhatitconsidersnotonlyitsownvestedinterestsbutmore
basicallyitsownwayoflife,theresultingclashcouldgenerateevenmoreintenseconceptualissues.

GlobalAbsorption
Butwhileourimmediaterealityisbeingfragmented,globalrealityincreasinglyabsorbstheindividual,
involveshim,andevenoccasionallyoverwhelmshim.Communicationsare,theobvious,alreadymuch
discussed,immediatecause.Thechangeswroughtbycommunicationsandcomputersmakeforan
extraordinarily interwovensocietywhosemembersareincontinuousandcloseaudiovisualcontactconstantly
interacting,instantlysharingthemostintensesocialexperiences,andpromptedtoincreasedpersonal
involvementineventhemostdistantproblems.Thenewgenerationnolongerdefinestheworldexclusivelyon
thebasisofreading,eitherofideologicallystructuredanalysesorofextensivedescriptionsitalsoexperiences
andsensesitvicariouslythroughaudiovisualcommunications.Thisformofcommunicating realityisgrowing
morerapidlyespeciallyintheadvancedcountries* thanthetraditionalwrittenmedium,anditprovidesthe
principalsourceofnewsforthemasses(seeTables13)."By1985distancewillbenoexcusefordelayed
informationfromany partoftheworldtothepowerfulurbannervecentersthatwillmarkthemajor
concentrationsofthepeopleonearth."9 Globaltelephonedialingthatinthemoreadvancedstateswillinclude
instantvisualcontactandaglobaltelevisionsatellitesystemthatwillenablesomestatesto"invade"private
homesinothercountries*willcreateunprecedentedglobalintimacy.
Thenewreality,however,willnotbethatofa"globalvillage."McLuhan'sstrikinganalogyoverlooks
thepersonalstability,interpersonalintimacy,implicitlysharedvalues,andtraditionsthatwereimportant
ingredientsoftheprimitivevillage.Amoreappropriateanalogyisthatofthe"globalcity"anervous,agitated,
tense,andfragmentedwebofinterdependentrelations.Thatinterdependence,however,isbettercharacterizedby
interactionthanbyintimacy.Instantcommunicationsarealreadycreatingsomethingakintoaglobalnervous
system.Occasionalmalfunctionsofthisnervoussystembecauseofblackoutsorbreakdownswillbeallthe
moreunsettling,preciselybecausethemutualconfidenceandreciprocallyreinforcingstabilitythatarecharac
teristicofvillageintimacywillbeabsentfromtheprocessofthat"nervous"interaction.
Man'sintensifiedinvolvementinglobal affairsisreflectedin,anddoubtlessshapedby,thechanging
characterofwhathasuntilnowbeenconsideredlocalnews.Televisionhasjoinednewspapersinexpandingthe
immediatehorizonsoftheviewerorreadertothepointwhere"local"increasinglymeans"national,"andglobal
affairscompeteforattentiononanunprecedentedscale.Physicalandmoralimmunityto"foreign"eventscannot
be

TABLEI. RADIOAND TELEVISION RECEIVERSPER1000 POPULATION ESTIMATED CIRCULATIONOFD AILY NEWSPAPERSPER1000

POPULATION
SourceofTables1and2: UNESCOStatisticalYearbook, 1967,Tables5.18.29.2.*Statisticsfrom UNStatisticalYearbook, 1968.

1960 1966
Radios TV Newspapers Radios TV Newspapers
UnitedStates 941 310 326 1,334 376 312
Canada 452 219 222 602 286 212*
Sweden 367 156 (1962)490 377 277 501
UnitedKingdom 289 211 514 300 254 488
WestGermany 287 83 307 459 213 332
Czechoslovakia 259 58 236 269 167 288
France 241 41 (1962)252 321 151 248*

*
Forexample,HermannMeyn,inhisMassenmedieninderBundesrepublikDeutschland(Berlin,1966),providesdatashowing
cumulativelythatanaverageWestGermanovertheageoffifteenreadeachdayforfifteenminutes,listenedtotheradioforoneandonehalf
hours,andwatchedtelevisiontoronehourandtenminutes.itisestimatedthatwithinadecadetelevisionsatelliteswillcarrysufficient
powertotransmitprogramsdirectlytoreceivers,withouttheintermediaryofreceivingtransmittingstations.

13
USSR 205 22 172 329 81 274
Argentina 167 21 155 308 82 1289
Japan 133 73 396 251 192 465
Brazil 70 18 54 (1964)95 30 33
Algeria 54 5 28 (1964)129 (1965)13 (1965)15
India 5 11 13 13

TABLE2. ABSOLUTEINCREASEPER1000 POPULATIONIN RADIO, TELEVISION,

AND NEWSPAPERC IRCULATION, 19601966

Radios TV Newspapers
UnitedStates +393 +66 14
Canada +150 +67 10
Sweden +10 +121 +11
UnitedKingdom +11 +43 26
WestGermany +172 +130 +25
Czechoslovakia +10 +109 +52
France +80 +110 4
USSR +124 +59 +102
Argentina +141 +61 27
Japan +118 +119 +69
Brazil +25 +12 21
Algeria +75 +8 13
India +8 +2

TABLE3. APPROXIMATEUSEOF MEDIA FOR E ACH OFTHE

FOUR AUDIENCEGROUPS
PercentofU.S.population Mass Periphera College Elites
l
that: Majority Mass Graduates (less
(5060%) (20 (1025%) than1%)
40%)
Readanynonfictionbooks
inthelastyear 5 15 30 50
Readone issueamonthof
Harper's,NationalRe
view,etc. 1/2 2 10 25
Readoneissueamonthof
Time,Newsweek,or
U.S.News 5 10 45 70
Readoneissueamonthof
Look,Life,orPost 25 50 65 30
Readadailynewspaper 70 80 90 95
Readthe NewYorkTimes % X 5 50
Readnationalorinterna
tionalnewsfirstinpaper 10 20 30 50
Wantmoreforeignnewsin
paper 10 20 30 50
Listentoradiodaily 60 70 85 ?
Hearradionewsdaily 50 60 65 ?
Usetelevisiondaily 80 75 65 ?
WatchTVNews 45 45 45 ?
FavorTVasnewsmedium 60 35 20 ?
FavornewsasTVshow 5 15 30 50

Source: TelevisionQuarterly, Spring1968,p.47.ThesefiguresareforthemostpartderivedfromdatainJohnRobinson,

PublicInformationaboutWorldAffairs, AnnArbor,Mich.,1967.

veryeffectivelymaintainedundercircumstancesinwhichtherearebothagrowingintellectualawarenessof
globalinterdependenceandtheelectronicintrusionofglobaleventsintothehome.
Thisconditionalsomakesforanovelperceptionofforeignaffairs.Evenintherecentpastonelearned
aboutinternationalpoliticsthroughthestudyofhistoryandgeography,aswellasbyreadingnewspapers.This
contributedtoahighlystructured,evenrigid,approach,inwhichitwasconvenienttocategorizeeventsor

14
nationsinsomewhatideologicalterms.Today,however,foreignaffairsintrudeuponachildoradolescentinthe
advancedcountriesintheformofdisparate,sporadic,isolatedbutinvolvingevents:catastrophesandactsof
violencebothabroadandathomebecomeintermeshed,andthoughtheymayeliciteitherpositiveornegative
reactions,thesearenolongerintheneatlycompartmentalizedcategoriesof"We"and"they."Televisionin
particularcontributestoa"blurred,"muchmoreimpressionistic andalsoinvolvedattitudetowardworld
affairs.10 Anyonewhoteachesinternationalpoliticssensesagreatchangeintheattitudeoftheyoungalongthese
lines.
Suchdirectglobalintrusionandinteraction,however,doesnotmakeforbetter"understanding"ofour
contemporaryaffairs.Onthecontrary,itcanbearguedthatinsomerespects"understanding"inthesenseof
possessingthesubjectiveconfidencethatonecanevaluateeventsonthebasisofsomeorganizedprinciple is
todaymuchmoredifficultformostpeopletoattain.Instantbutvicariousparticipationineventsevokes
uncertainty,especiallyasitbecomesmoreandmoreapparentthatestablishedanalyticalcategoriesnolonger
adequatelyencompassthenewcircumstances.*
Thescienceexplosionthemostrapidlyexpandingaspectofourentirereality,growingmorerapidly
thanpopulation,industry,andcitiesintensifies,ratherthanreduces,thesefeelingsofinsecurity.Itissimply
impossiblefortheaveragecitizenandevenformenofintellecttoassimilateand.meaningfullyorganizetheflow
ofknowledgeforthemselves.Ineveryscientificfieldcomplaintsaremountingthatthetorrentialoutpouringof
publishedreports,scientificpapers,andscholarlyarticlesandtheproliferationofprofessionaljournalsmakeit
impossibleforindividualstoavoidbecomingeithernarrowgaugedspecialistsorsuperficialgeneralists. The
sharingofnewcommonperspectivesthusbecomesmoredifficultasknowledgeexpandsinaddition,traditional
perspectivessuchasthoseprovidedbyprimitivemythsor,morerecently,bycertainhistoricallyconditioned
ideologiescannolongerbesustained.
Thethreatofintellectualfragmentation,posedbythegapbetweenthepaceintheexpansionof
knowledgeandtherateofitsassimilationraisesaperplexingquestionconcerningtheprospectsformankind's
intellectualunity.Ithasgenerallybeenassumedthatthemodernworld,shapedincreasinglybytheindustrialand
urbanrevolutions,willbecomemorehomogeneousinitsoutlook.Thismaybeso,butitcouldbethe
homogeneityofinsecurity,ofuncertainty,andofintellectualanarchy.Theresult,therefore,wouldnot
necessarilybeamorestableenvironment.

2.TheAmbivalentDisseminator
TheUnitedStatesistheprincipalglobaldisseminatorofthetechnetronicrevolution.ItisAmericansocietythat
iscurrentlyhavingthegreatestimpactonallothersocieties,promptingafarreachingcumulativetransformation
intheiroutlookandmores.Atvariousstagesinhistorydifferentsocietieshaveservedasacatalystforchangeby
stimulatingimitationandadaptationinothers.WhatintheremotepastAthensandRomeweretothe
Mediterraneanworld,orChinatomuchofAsia,FrancehasmorerecentlybeentoEurope.Frenchletters,arts,
andpoliticalideasexercisedamagneticattraction,andtheFrenchRevolutionwasperhapsthesinglemost
powerfulstimulanttotheriseofpopulistnationalismduringthenineteenthcentury.
Inspite ofitsdomestictensionsindeed,insomerespectsbecauseofthem(seePartIV)theUnited
Statesistheinnovativeandcreativesocietyoftoday.Itisalsoamajordisruptiveinfluenceontheworldscene.
Infactcommunism,whichmanyAmericansseeas theprincipalcauseofunrest,primarilycapitalizeson
frustrationsandaspirations,whosemajorsourceistheAmericanimpactontherestoftheworld.TheUnited
Statesisthefocusofglobalattention,emulation,envy,admiration,andanimosity.Noothersocietyevokes
feelingsofsuchintensitynoothersociety'sinternalaffairsincludingAmerica'sracialandurbanviolence
arescrutinizedwithsuchattentionnoothersociety'spoliticsarefollowedwithsuchavidinterestsomuchso
thattomany foreignnationalsUnitedStatesdomesticpoliticshavebecomeanessentialextensionoftheirown
noothersocietysomassivelydisseminatesitsownwayoflifeanditsvaluesbymeansofmovies,television,
multimillioncopyforeigneditionsofitsnationalmagazines,orsimplybyitsproductsnoothersocietyisthe
objectofsuchcontradictoryassessments.

TheAmericanImpact
Initially,theimpactofAmericaontheworldwaslargelyidealistic:Americawasassociatedwith
freedom.Latertheinfluence becamemorematerialistic:Americawasseenasthelandofopportunity,crassly
definedintermsofdollars.Todaysimilarmaterialadvantagescanbesoughtelsewhereatlowerpersonalrisk,

*
Toprovideonesimpleexample,forabouttwentyyearsanticommunismprovidedthegrandorganizationalprincipleformanyAmericans.
HowthenfitintothatsettingeventssuchastheconfrontationbetweenMoscowandPeking,and,onceonehadbecomeaccustomedtothink
ofMoscowasmore"liberal,"betweenMoscowandPrague?

Itisestimated,forexample,thatNASAemployssomefifteenthousandspecialtechnical termsallofwhicharecompiledinitsown
thesaurus(CTNBulletin[Centresd'etudesdesconsequencesgeneratesdesgrandestechniquesnouvelles,Paris],June1968,p.6).Itisalso
estimatedthat"thenumberofbookspublishedhasaboutdoubledeverytwentyyearssince1450,andsome30millionhavebynowbeen
publishedtheprojectedfigureis60millionby1980"(CyrilBlack,TheDynamicsofModernization,NewYork,1966,p.12)andthat
"sciencealoneseesthepublishingof100,000journalsayear,inmorethan60languages,afiguredoublingevery15years"(GlennT.
Seaborg,"UneasyWorldGainsPoweroverDestiny,"TheNewYorkTimes,January6,1969).

15
andtheassassinationsoftheKennedysandofMartinLutherKing, aswellasracialandsocialtensions,notto
speakofVietnam,havesomewhattarnishedAmerica'sidentificationwithfreedom.Instead,America'sinfluence
isinthefirstinstancescientificandtechnological,anditisafunctionofthescientific,technological,and
educationalleadoftheUnitedStates.*
Scientificandtechnologicaldevelopmentisadynamicprocess.Itdependsinthefirstinstanceonthe
resourcescommittedtoit,thepersonnelavailableforit,theeducationalbasethatsupportsit, andlastbutnot
leastthefreedomofscientificinnovation.InallfourrespectstheAmericanpositionisadvantageouscon
temporaryAmericaspendsmoreonscienceanddevotesgreaterresourcestoresearchthananyothersociety.
Inaddition,theAmericanpeopleenjoyaccesstoeducationonascalegreaterthanthatofmostother
advancedsocieties.(SeeTables4and5.)Atthebeginningofthe1960stheUnitedStateshadmorethan66per
centofits1519agegroupenrolledineducationalinstitutionscomparablefiguresforFranceandWestGer
manywereabout31percentand20percent,respectively.ThecombinedpopulationsofFrance,Germany,Italy,
andtheUnitedKingdomareequaltothatoftheUnitedStatesroughlytwohundredmillion.ButintheUnited
States43percentofcollegeagepeopleareactuallyenrolled,whereasonly7to15percentareenrolledinthe
fourcountries(ItalyhavingthelowfigureandFrancethehigh).TheSovietpercentagewasapproximatelyhalf
thatoftheAmerican. InactualnumbersthereareclosetosevenmillioncollegestudentsintheUnitedStatesand
onlyaboutoneandahalfmillioninthefourEuropeancountries.Atthemoreadvancedlevelofthe2024age
bracket,theAmericanfigurewas12percentwhilethatforWestGermany,thetopWesternEuropeancountry,
wasabout5percent.Forthe 519 agebracket,theAmericanandtheWesternEuropeanlevelswereroughly
even(about80percent),andtheSovietUniontrailedwith57percent.11
TABLE4. ACCESSTO H IGHER LEVEL EDUCATIONPER100,000OFTOTALPOPULATION (1950,1965)
AbsoluteIncrease
1950 1965 19501965
UnitedStates 1,508 2,840 +1,332
WestGermany 256 632 +376
France 334 1,042 +708
Japan 471 1,140 4669
USSB 693 1,674 +981
Poland 473 800 +327
India 113 (1963) 284 +171
Indonesia 8 (1963) 95 487
Brazil 98 189 +91
Algeria 52 68 +16

Asaresult,theUnitedStatespossessesapyramidofeducatedsocialtalentwhosewidebaseiscapable
ofprovidingeffectivesupportto'theleadingandcreativeapex.Thisistrueeventhoughinmanyrespects
Americaneducationisoftenintellectuallydeficient,especiallyincomparisonwiththemorerigorousstandards
ofWesternEuropeanandJapanesesecondaryinstitutions.Nonetheless,thebroadbaseofrelativelytrained
peopleenablesrapidadaptation,development,andsocialapplicationofscientificinnovationordiscovery.

*
Asasweepinggeneralization,itcanbesaidthatRomeexportedlawEngland,parliamentarypartydemocracyFrance,cultureand
republicannationalismthecontemporaryUnitedStates,technologicalscientificinnovationandmassculturederivedfromhigh
consumption.

Accordingtoa1968congressionalreport,"CurrentspendingonresearchanddevelopmentintheUnitedStatesamountstosome$24
billionannually abouttwothirdsfinancedbytheFederalGovernmentincontrasttoamere$6billioninallofWesternEurope."The
Sovietfigurehasbeenestimatedtobeinthevicinityof8billionrubles,but,Americancostsbeinghigher,onerublebuysapproximately$3
ofresearch.In1962,accordingtotheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD),theUnitedStateswasspending
$93.70percapitaonresearchanddevelopmentBritain $33.50France$23.60andGermany$20.10.Asapercentageofgrossnational
product,theUnitedStates'expenditureonresearchanddevelopmentamountedto3.1Britain'sto2.2France'sto1.5Poland'sto1.6
Germany'sto1.3andtheSovietUnion's to2.2.Thenumberofscientists,engineers,andtechniciansengagedinresearchanddevelopment
totaled1,159,500intheUnitedStates211,100inBritain111,200inFrance142,200inGermany53,800inBelgiumandHollandand
somewhereover1,000,000 intheSovietUnion(C.FreemanandA.Young,TheResearchandDevelopmentEffortinWesternEurope,North
AmericaandtheSovietUnion,OEGD,1965,pp.7172,124.SourceforPoland:aspeechbyA.Werblan,publishedbyPolishPressAgency,
October15,1968.ThePolesexpecttoreach2.5percentonlyby1975.ForahigherestimateofSovietscientificmanpower,seeScientific
PolicyintheUSSR,aspecialreportbytheOECD,1969,especiallypp.64247).Onaglobalscale,theUnitedStatesaccountsforroughly
onethirdoftheworld'stotalsupplyofscientificmanpower("TheScientificBrainDrainfromtheDevelopingCountriestotheUnited
States,"TwentythirdReportbytheCommitteeonGovernmentOperations,HouseofBepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,March1968,p.3
hereaftercitedasReport...).

America'sscientificleadisparticularlystronginthesocalledfrontierindustriesthatinvolvethemostadvancedfieldsofscience.Ithas
beenestimatedthatapproximately80percentofallscientificandtechnicaldiscoveriesmadeduringthepastfewdecadesoriginatedinthe
UnitedStates.About79percentoftheworld'scomputersoperateintheUnitedStates.America'sleadinlasersisevenmoremarked.The
InternationalAtomicEnergyAgencyhasestimated(initsreportPowerandResearchReactorsinMemberStates,Vienna,1969)thatby1975
theUnitedStateswillutilizemorenuclearpowerforpeacefulusesthanthenextelevenstatescombined(includingJapan,allofWestern
Europe,Canada,andtheSovietUnion).

16
Whilenopreciseestimatesarepossible,

UnitedStates (1965)349 Poland 81

WestGermany 109 India (1962)45
France 96 Indonesia
Japan 233 Brazil 25
USSR 177 Algeria
TABLE5. N UMBEROFGRADUATESFROMH IGHERLEVEL INSTITUTIONSPER100,000OFTOTALPOPULATION (1964)
Source: UNESCOStatisticalYearbook, 1967,Table2.1,4,pp.25968.
Source: UNESCOStatisticalYearbook, 1967,Table2.10,pp.18599.

someexpertshavesuggestedthatapresentdaysocietywouldexperiencedifficultiesinrapidmodernizationif
lessthan10percentofitspopulationintheappropriateage brackethadhighereducationandlessthan30per
centhadlowereducation.
Moreover,boththeorganizationalstructureandtheintellectualatmosphereintheAmericanscientific
worldfavourexperimentationandrapidsocialadaptation.InaspecialreportonAmericanscientificpolicies,
submittedinearly1968,agroupofexpertsconnectedwithOECD* concludedthatAmerica'sscientificand
technicalenterpriseisdeeplyrootedinAmericantraditionand history. Competitivenessandtheemphasison
quickexploitationhaveresultedinaquickspinoffoftheenormousdefenseandspaceresearcheffortsintothe
economyasawhole,incontrasttothesituationintheSovietUnion,wheretheeconomicbyproductsofalmost
aslargescalearesearchefforthave sofarbeennegligible.Itisnoteworthythat"theRussiansthemselves
estimatethattheproductivityoftheirresearchersisonlyabouthalftheAmericans'andthatinnovationstaketwo
orthreetimesaslongtobeputintoeffect."12
Thisclimateandtheconcomitantrewardsforcreativeattainmentsresultinamagneticpull(the"brain
drain")fromwhichAmericaclearlybenefits.Americaofferstomanytrainedscientists,evenfromadvanced
countries,notonlygreatermaterialrewardsbutauniqueopportunityforthemaximumfulfillmentoftheir
talents.InthepastWesternwritersandartistsgravitatedprimarilytowardParis.MorerecentlytheSovietUnion
andChinahaveexercisedsomeideologicalattraction,butinneithercasediditinvolvethemovementof
significantpercentagesofscientificelites.ThoughimmigratingscientistsinitiallythinkofAmericaasaplatform
forcreativework,andnotasanationalsocietyto whichtheyaretransferringpoliticalallegiance,inmostcases
thatallegianceislaterobtainedthroughassimilation.America'sprofessionalattractionfortheglobalscientific
eliteiswithouthistoricprecedentineitherscaleorscope.

*
Tomeasureinnovatingperformance,OECDanalystscheckedtoseewhereonehundredandthirtynineselectedinventionswerefirstused.
Nineindustrialsectorsthatdependheavilyoninnovationweresurveyed(i.e.,computers,semiconductors,pharmaceuticals,plastics,iron
andsteel,machinetools,nonferrousmetals,scientificinstruments,andsyntheticfibers).Theresultsshowedthatinthelasttwentyyearsthe
UnitedStateshashadthehighestrateofinnovation,sinceapproximately60percentoftheonehundredandthirtynineinventionswerefirst
puttouseintheUnitedStates(15percentinGreatBritain,9percentinGermany,4percentinSwitzerland,3percentinSweden).The
UnitedStatescollects5060percentofallOECDareareceiptsforpatents,licenses,etc.theUnitedStatespredominatesintrade
performance,accountingforabout30percentoftheworld'sexportinresearchintensiveproductgroups(J.Richardsonand FordParks,
"WhyEuropeLagsBehind," ScienceJournal, Vol.4,August1968,pp.8186).
Itisstrikingtonote,forexample,thatwhileWesternEuropestillslightlyexceedstheUnitedStatesinthenumberofpatentsregistered
annually,industrialapplicationofpatentsisroughlyeighttimeshigherintheUnitedStates.
Americanleadershipisalsomarkedinpurescience.Inanunusuallyassertivebutnotinaccuratereport,theNationalAcademyof
Sciencesstatedinlate1968thattheUnitedStatesenjoysworldleadershipinmathematics,citingasevidencethat50percentofthe
prestigiousFields"Medalsawardedsince1945wenttoAmericans,thatAmericanmathematiciansplaytheleadingroleininternational
mathematicscongresses(deliveringmorethan33percentofallscientificpapers),andthatAmericanmathematicalresearchiscitedmost
frequentlyinforeignmathematicsjournals(TheNewYorkTimes, November24,1968).
AmericanpreponderanceinNobelPrizesinPhysics,Chemistry,andMedicinehasalsobecomemoremarked.Thus,betweentheyears1901
and1939theUnitedStatesandCanadawon13prizes,whileFrance,Germany,Italy,Benelux,andtheUnitedKingdomwonatotalof82,
Scandinaviawon8,theUSSRwon4,andJapanwonnone.Between1940and1967therespectivefigureswere42,50,6,8,and2.

"SincethefirsthoursoftheRepublic,therightofcitizenstothe'pursuitofhappiness,'formulatedintheDeclarationofIndependence,has
beenoneofthemainspringsofAmericansocietyitis.alsothefoundationofasocialpolicyinspiredbytheprospectofnewbenefitsissued
fromthescientificandtechnicalenterprise.Howcanonefailtohopethatthesebenefits,whichhaveinfactcontributedsomuchtonational
defenseortheraceforworldprestige,willmakeanessentialcontributiontotheachievementofothergreatnationalgoals?Itisthis
propulsionwhichhasgivenscience,themotherofknowledge,theappearanceofaveritablenationalresource.Theenterpriseisindissolubly
linkedtothegoalsofAmericansociety,whichistryingtobuilditsfutureontheprogressofscienceandtechnology.Inthiscapacity,this
societyasawholeisaconsumerofscientificknowledge,whichisusedfordiverseends:inthelastcentury,toincreaseagriculturalpro
ductivityandtofacilitateterritorialdevelopment,andthentobackthenationaldefenseeffort,tosafeguardpublichealthandtoexplore
space.Theseareactivitieswhichhaveanimpactonthedestinyofthewholenation,anditseemsnaturalthatallskillsshouldbemobilizedto
cooperate.InthiswayindustryandtheuniversitiesandprivateorganizationsareassociatedwiththeGovernmentproject"(conclusionofa
reportpreparedbytheSecretariatoftheOECD,January1968,asquotedbyTheNewYork Times,January13,1968,p.10).

InthewordsofE.Piore,vicepresidentandchiefscientistofI.B.M.,"TheUnitedStateshasbecometheintellectualcenteroftheworld
thecenterofthearts,thesciences,andeconomics"("TowardstheYear2000,"Daedalus,Summer1967,p.958).Itissymptomaticthatinthe
early1960s,44percentofthePakistanistudentsstudyingatinstitutionsofhighereducationinfifteenforeigncountrieswerestudyinginthe
UnitedStates59percentoftheIndians32percentoftheIndonesians56percentoftheBurmese90percentoftheFilipinos64percent
oftheThaisand26percentoftheCeylonese(GunnarMyrdal,AsianDrama,NewYork,1968,p.1773).In1967theUnitedStatesgranted
10,690M.D.satitsownuniversities,andadmittedinthesameyearaspermanentimmigrants3457physicians(Report...,p.3).Inthatsame
year10,506scientific,engineering,andmedicalpersonnelfromthedevelopedcountriesemigratedtotheUnitedStates("TheBrainDrainof

17
ThoughthisattractionislikelytodeclineforEuropeans(particularlybecauseofAmerica'sdomesticproblems
andpartiallybecauseofEurope'sownscientificadvance),thesuccessofJ.J.ServanSchreiber'sbook,The
AmericanChallenge, reflectsthebasicinclinationofconcernedEuropeanstoaccepttheargument thatthe
UnitedStatescomesclosesttobeingtheonlytrulymodernsocietyintermsoftheorganizationandscaleofits
economicmarket,businessadministration,researchanddevelopment,andeducation.(Incontrast,thestructure
ofAmericangovernment isviewedasstrikinglyantiquated.)Europeansensitivityinthisareaisconditionednot
onlybyfearofawideningAmericantechnologicalleadbutverymuchbytheincreasingpresenceonthe
EuropeanmarketsoflargeAmericanfirmsthatexploittheireconomicadvantagesofscaleandsuperior
organizationtograduallyacquirecontrollinginterestsinkeyfrontierindustries.Thepresenceofthesefirms,the
emergenceundertheiraegisofsomethingakintoanewinternationalcorporateelite,thestimulationgivenby
theirpresencetotheadoptionofAmericanbusinesspracticesandtraining,thedeepeningawarenessthattheso
calledtechnologygapis.inrealityalsoamanagementandeducationgap13 allhavecontributedbothtoa
positiveappraisalofAmerican"technostructure"bytheEuropeanbusinessandscientificeliteandtothedesire
toadaptsomeofAmerica'sexperience.
LesstangiblebutnolesspervasiveistheAmericanimpactonmassculture,youthmores,andlife
styles.Thehigherthelevelofpercapitaincomeinacountry,themoreapplicableseemstheterm
"Americanization."ThisindicatesthattheexternalformsofcharacteristiccontemporaryAmericanbehaviorare
notsomuchculturallydeterminedastheyareanexpressionofacertainlevelofurban,technical,andeconomic
development.Nonetheless,totheextentthattheseforrnswerefirstappliedinAmericaandthen"exported"
abroad,theybecamesymbolicoftheAmericanimpactandoftheinnovationemulationrelationshipprevailing
betweenAmericaandtherestoftheworld.
WhatmakesAmericauniqueinourtimeisthatconfrontationwiththenewispartofthedailyAmerican
experience.Forbetterorforworse,therestoftheworldlearnswhatisinstoreforitbyobservingwhathappens
intheUnitedStates:whetheritbethelatestscientificdiscoveriesinspaceandmedicineortheelectric
toothbrushinthebathroompopartorLSDairconditioningorairpollutionoldageproblemsorjuvenile
delinquency.Theevidenceismoreelusiveinsuchmattersasstyle,music,values,andsocialmores,buttheretoo
theterm"Americanization"obviouslyimplies aspecificsource.
Similarly,foreignstudentsreturningfromAmericanuniversities havepromptedanorganizationaland
intellectualrevolutionintheacademiclifeoftheircountries.ChangesintheacademiclifeofGermany,the
UnitedKingdom,JapanandmorerecentlyFrance,andtoanevengreaterextentinthelessdevelopedcountries,
canbetracedtotheinfluenceofAmericaneducationalinstitutions.Givendevelopmentsinmodern
communications,itisonlyamatteroftimebeforestudentsatColumbiaUniversityand,say,theUniversityof
Teheranwillbewatchingthesamelecturersimultaneously.
ThisisallthemorelikelybecauseAmericansociety,morethananyother,"communicates"withthe
entireglobe.14 Roughlysixtyfivepercentofallworldcommunicationsoriginateinthiscountry.Moreover,the
UnitedStateshasbeenmostactiveinthepromotionofaglobalcommunicationssystembymeansofsatellites,
anditispioneeringthedevelopmentofaworldwideinformationgrid.* Itisexpectedthatsuchagridwillcome
intobeingbyabout1975.15 Forthefirsttimeinhistory thecumulativeknowledgeofmankindwillbemade
accessibleonaglobalscaleanditwillbealmostinstantaneouslyavailableinresponsetodemand.

NewImperialism?
AllofthesefactorsmakeforanovelrelationshipbetweentheUnitedStatesandtheworld.Thereareimperial
overtonestoit,andyetinitsessencetherelationshipisquitedifferentfromthetraditionalimperialstructure.To
besure,thefactthatintheaftermathofWorldWarIIanumberofnationsweredirectlydependentontheUnited
Statesinmattersofsecurity,politics,andeconomicscreatedasystemthatinmanyrespects,includingthatof
scale,superficiallyresembledtheBritish,Roman,andChineseempiresofthepast.16 Themorethanamillion
Americantroopsstationedonsome fourhundredmajorandalmostthreethousandminorUnitedStatesmilitary
basesscatteredallovertheglobe,thefortytwonationstiedtotheUnitedStatesbysecuritypacts,theAmerican
militarymissionstrainingtheofficersandtroopsofmanyothernationalarmies,andtheapproximatelytwo
hundredthousandUnitedStatesciviliangovernmentemployeesinforeignpostsallmakeforstrikinganalogies
tothegreatclassicalimperialsystems.17
Nevertheless,theconceptof"imperial"shieldsratherthan revealsarelationshipbetweenAmericaand
theworldthatisbothmorecomplexandmoreintimate.The"imperial"aspectoftherelationshipwas,inthefirst
instance,atransitoryandratherspontaneousresponsetothevacuumcreatedbyWorldWarIIandtothe
subsequentfeltthreatfromcommunism.Moreover,itwasneitherformallystructurednorexplicitlylegitimized.
The"empire"wasatmostaninformalsystemmarkedbythepretenseofequalityand noninterference.This
madeiteasierforthe"imperial"attributestorecedeonceconditionschanged.Bythelate1960s,withafew

Scientists,EngineersandPhysiciansfromtheDevelopingCountriestotheUnitedStates,"HearingbeforeaSubcommitteeonGovernment
Operations,HouseofRepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,January23,1968,pp.2,96hereaftercitedasHearing...).
*
Itisestimated(bytheInstituteforPoliticsandPlanning,Arlington,Virginia)thatthevolumeofdigitalcommunicationwillshortlyexceed
humanconversationacrosstheAtlanticithasalreadydonesointheUnitedStates.Moreover,withinthenextdecadethevalueof
informationexportfromtheUnitedStatestoEuropewillexceedthevalueofmaterialexports.

18
exceptionstheearlierdirectpoliticalmilitarydependenceontheUnitedStateshaddeclined(ofteninspiteof
politicaleffortsbytheUnitedStatestomaintainit).Itsplacehadbeenfilledbythemorepervasivebutless
tangibleinfluenceofAmericaneconomicpresenceandinnovationastheyoriginateddirectlyfromtheUnited
StatesorwerestimulatedabroadbyAmericanforeigninvestment(thelatterannuallyyieldinga product
considerablyinexcessofthegrossnationalproductofmostmajorcountries).18 Ineffect,"...American
influencehasaporousandalmostinvisiblequality.Itworksthroughtheinterpenetrationofeconomic
institutions,thesympatheticharmonyofpoliticalleadersandparties,thesharedconceptsofsophisticated
intellectuals,thematingofbureaucraticinterests.Itis,inotherwords,somethingnewintheworld,andnotyet
wellunderstood."19
ItisthenoveltyofAmerica'srelationshipwiththeworldcomplex,intimate,andporousthatthe
moreorthodox,especiallyMarxist,analysesofimperialismfailtoencompass.Toseethatrelationshipmerelyas
theexpressionofanimperialdriveistoignorethepartplayedinitbythecrucialdimensionofthetechnological
scientificrevolution.Thatrevolutionnotonlycaptivatestheimaginationofmankind(whocanfailtobemoved
bythespectacleofmanreachingthemoon?)butinescapablycompelsimitationofthemoreadvancedbytheless
advancedandstimulatestheexportofnewtechniques,methods,andorganizationalskillsfromtheformertothe
latter.Thereisnodoubtthatthisresultsinanasymmetricalrelationship,butthecontentofthatasymmetrymust
beexaminedbeforeitiscalledimperialism.Likeeverysociety,Americanodoubtpreferstobemoreratherthan
lessadvancedyetitisalsostrikingthatnoothercountryhasmadesogreataneffort,governmentallyand
privately,throughbusinessandespeciallythroughfoundations,toexportitsknowhow,tomakepublicitsspace
findings,topromotenewagriculturaltechniques,toimproveeducationalfacilities,tocontrolpopulationgrowth,
toimprovehealthcare,andsoon.Allofthishasimperialovertones,andyetitismisleadingtolabelitassuch.20
Indeed,unabletounderstandfullywhatishappeninginthenownsociety,Americansfinditdifficultto
comprehendtheglobalimpactthatthatsocietyhashadinitsuniqueroleasdisseminatorofthetechnetronic
revolution.Thisimpactiscontradictory:itbothpromotesandunderminesAmericaninterestsasdefinedby
Americanpolicymakersithelpstoadvancethecauseofcooperationonalargerscaleevenasitdisruptsexisting
socialoreconomicfabricsitbothlaysthegroundworkforwellbeingandstabilityandenhancestheforces
workingforinstabilityandrevolution.Unliketraditionalimperialisticpowers,whichreliedheavilyonthe
principleof divideetimpera(practicedwithstrikingsimilaritybytheBritishinIndiaandmorerecentlybythe
RussiansinEasternEurope),AmericahasstriventopromoteregionalismbothinEuropeandinLatinAmerica.
Yetinsodoing,itishelpingtocreatelargerentitiesthataremorecapableofresistingitsinfluenceandof
competingwithiteconomically.Implicitlyandoftenexplicitly modelledontheAmericanpattern,modernization
makesforpotentiallygreatereconomicwellbeing,butintheprocessitdisruptsexistinginstitutions,undermines
prevailingmores,andstimulatesresentmentthatfocusesdirectlyonthesourceofchangeAmerica.Theresult
isanacutetensionbetweenthekindofglobalstabilityandorderthatAmericasubjectivelyseeksandthe
instability,impatience,andfrustrationthatAmericaunconsciouslypromotes.
TheUnitedStateshasemergedasthefirstglobalsocietyinhistory.Itisasocietyincreasinglydifficult
todelineateinterms ofitsouterCulturalandeconomicboundaries.Moreover,itisunlikelythatinthe
foreseeablefutureAmericawillceasetoexercisetheinnovativestimulusthatischaracteristicofitscurrent
relationshipwiththeworld.Bytheendofthiscentury(extrapolatingfromcurrenttrends)onlysomethirteen
countriesarelikelytoreachthe1965levelofthepercapitagrossnationalproductoftheUnitedStates.21 Unless
thereismajorscientificandeconomicstagnationorapoliticalcrisis(seePartIV),attheendofthecentury
Americawillstillbeasignificantforceforglobalchange,whetherornotthedominantsubjectivemoodispro
orantiAmerican.

3.GlobalGhettos
TheThird"Worldisavictimofthetechnetronicrevolution.Whetherthelessdevelopedcountriesgrow
rapidlyorslowly,ornotatall,almostinevitablymanyofthemwillcontinuetobe''dominatedbyintensifying
feelingsofpsychologicaldeprivation.Inaworldelectronicallyintermeshed,absoluteorrelativeunder
developmentwillbeintolerable,especiallyasthemoreadvancedcountriesbegintomovebeyondthatindustrial
eraintowhichthelessdevelopedcountrieshaveasyettoenter.Itisthus nolongeramatterofthe"revolutionof
risingexpectations."TheThirdWorldtodayconfrontsthespecterofinsatiableaspirations.
Atonetimeinhistoryseeminglyinsolubleproblemspromptedfatalismbecausetheywerethoughttobe
partofauniversalcondition.Todaysimilarproblemsstimulatefrustrationbecausetheyareseenasaparticular
phenomenonbywhichothers,morefortunate,arenotafflicted.TheplightoftheurbanghettosintheUnited
Statesprovidesanappropriateanalogytotheglobalpositionofthelessdevelopedcountries,particularlyin
AfricaandAsia.Theirproblemisnot thatoftheabsenceofchange.* Insomecasesitisnoteventhatof

*
"ThegrowthrateofthesecountriesduringtheDevelopmentDecadehasnotreachedtheannualfigureof5percentwhichwassetasthe
minimumtarget.Actuallytheaveragerateforfiftyfourcountries,representing87percentofthepopulationofthedevelopingworldasa
whole,wasonly4.5percentperannumfromi960to1965....Amongthefiftyfourcountriesmentioned,thereisa groupofeighteenwith
anaveragegrowthrateof7.3percentperannum,whiletherateforfifteencountrieswasscarcely2.7percentperannum....Betweenthese
twoextremesthereweretwentyonecountrieswhoseaveragegrowthratewas4.9percent"("TowardsaGlobalStrategyofDevelopment,"a
reportbytheSecretaryGeneraloftheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,NewYork,1968,p.5).

19
insufficientlyrapidchange,becauseinrecentyearsseveralunderdevelopedcountrieshaveattainedimpressive
andsustainedratesofgrowth(SouthKorea,Taiwan,andGhana,forexample).Rather,theirproblemarisesfrom
anintensifyingfeelingofrelativedeprivationofwhichtheyaremademoreacutelyawarebythespreadof
educationandcommunications.Asaresult,passiveresignationmaygivewaytoactiveexplosionsofundirected
anger.

ProspectsforChange
Itisextremelydifficulttopredicttheeconomicandpoliticaldevelopmentoftheunderdeveloped
countries.Some ofthem,especiallyinLatinAmerica,maymakerespectableprogressandmay,withinthenext
twodecades,reachtheeconomiclevelsofthecurrentlymoreadvancedstates.Islandsofdevelopmentmay
increasinglydotthemapsofAsiaandAfrica,assumingthatthereisrelativepeaceandpoliticalstabilityinthe
regionasawhole.Buttheoverallprognosisisnothopeful.Mediumprojectionsforseveralofthemore
importantunderdevelopedcountriespointto apercapitaannualgrossnationalproductin1985of$107forNi
geria,$134forPakistan,$112forIndonesia,$169forIndia,$185forChina,$295fortheUnitedArabRepublic,
and$372forBrazil.(Bywayofcontrast,theprospectivepercapitafigurefor1985fortheUnitedStatesis
$6510,forJapan$3080,fortheUSSR$2660,andforIsrael$2978.)22 Whatisevenmorestrikingisthatwhile
thepercapitaGNPintheaboveadvancedcountriesislikelytodoubleduringtheyears19651985,forasingle
NigerianthepercapitaGNPwillhaveincreasedbyonly$14,foraPakistaniby$43,foranIndonesianby$12,
foranIndianby$70,foraChineseby$88,foranEgyptianby$129,andforaBrazilianby$92duringthesame
twodecadesofdevelopment.
Thethreatofoverpopulationtoeconomicgrowthindeedtoexistenceitselfhasbeenwidelydiscussed
inrecentyears.Thatthreat,itshouldbeadded,involvesacrucialsocialpoliticaldimension.Overpopulation
contributestothebreakupoflandholdingsandtherebyfurtherstratifiesandcomplicatestheruralclass
structure,wideningdisparitiesandintensifyingclassconflicts.Staggeringproblemsofunemploymentarealso
highlyprobable.AccordingtotheInternationalLabourOrganization,by1980thelabourforceofAsia's
developingnationswillhaveincreasedfrom663millionto938million.Duringthissameperiodthenumberof
newjobsinthesecountrieswillincreasebyonly142million,accordingtoprojectionsofcurrentgrowthrates.23
Evenif itisassumedthattheproblemofoverpopulationwillbemetbygreateracceptanceofbirth
control,theeconomicpictureintermsof thepercapitaGNPforunderdevelopedcountriesbecomesonly
marginallybrighterwhenitiscomparedwiththefiguresprojectedforthemoreadvancedsocieties.Forexample,
intheunlikelyeventthatby1985Indonesia'spopulationwillnothaveincreasedsince1965,itspercapitaGNP
willbeapproximately$200insteadoftheprojected$112undersimilarcircumstances,forPakistanitwillbe
$250insteadoftheprojected$134,andfortheUnitedArabRepublicalmost$500insteadof$295.Sincesome
populationgrowthisunavoidable,theabovefiguresactuallyrepresentunattainablelevels,eventhoughtheyare
inthemselvessingularlyunimpressivewhencomparedwiththefiguresforthemoreadvancedportionsofthe
world.
Topointtothesefiguresisnottoexcludetheprobabilitythatprogresswillbemadeinsomefields.Itis
probablytruethat"thepictureoftheworldin1985,despitethelargepocketsofpovertythatwillstillexist,isfar
fromgrim.Indeed,by1985massstarvation,masshomelessness,andtherampantspreadofdiseasesthathave
historicallydecimatedentirepopulationswillbegenerallyeliminated.Althoughtheunderdevelopedcountries
willstillbecomparativelypoor,theywillhavegreaterandmoreimmediateaccesstoworldwidetransportation
andcommunicationssystemsandtotheprovisionofdrugs,medicalcare,food,shelterandclothingthrough
internationalassistanceintheeventofdisaster.ThesurpluscommodityproductionoftheUnitedStateswillbe
animportantelementinthefeedingofunderprivilegednations."24Onemayassumethattheappearanceof
greaterinternationalplanningintermsofinternationalcommodityagreements,transportarrangements,health
regulations,finance,andeducationwillmakeformoreorderlyanddeliberateapproachestotheproblemsposed
bybackwardness,slowgrowth,andthewideningdisparityinstandardsofliving.Theincreasing
communicationsintimacywillpermitinstantresponsestosuddenemergenciesandallowforcontinuouslong
distancevisualconsultationsbyspecialists.Intheeventofneed,aidcouldbemobilizedandferriedacrossthe
globeinnomoretimethanisnowneededtorespondtoaninternalnationalcalamityorevenanurbanone.
TheagriculturalrevolutioninAsiaisalreadychallengingtherecentlyfashionablepredictionsofmass
hungerandstarvation.Masseducationalcampaignsandtheintroductionofnewcerealsandfertilizershave
promptedanimpressiveupsurgeinproductivity.WithinthenextfewyearsPakistan,thePhilippines,andTurkey
maybecomegrainexportingstatesThailandandBurmaalreadyhave.Thecumulativeeffectofsuchsuccesses
maywellbeto"bolstertheconfidenceofnationalleadersintheirabilitytohandleotherseeminglyinsoluble
problems.Itmayalsostrengthenthefaithinmoderntechnologyanditspotentialforimprovingthewellbeingof
theirpeople."25
Yetevenallowingforthesemorehopefuldevelopments,thefactremainsthatthoughthematerial
conditionsoflifeintheThirdWorldareinsomerespectsimproving,theseimprovementscannotkeeppacewith
thefactorsthatmake forpsychicchange.Thebasicrevolutionarychangeisbeingbroughtaboutbyeducation
andcommunications.Thatchange,necessaryanddesirabletostimulateanattitudereceptivetoinnovation(for
example,theacceptancebypeasantsoffertilizers),alsopromptsanintenseawarenessofinadequacyand

20
backwardness.
Inthisregard,acomparisonofthecontemporarysocioeconomictransformationoftheThirdWorld
withthatofRussiaatabouttheturnofthecenturyisrevealing.InRussiathe industrialrevolutionoutpacedmass
educationliteracyfollowedratherthanprecededmaterialchange.* Therevolutionarymovements,
particularlytheMarxistone,strovetoclosethegapbypoliticallyeducatinghenceradicalizingthemasses.
Todayinthe ThirdWorldasubjectiverevolutionisprecedingchangeintheobjectiveenvironmentandcreating
astateofunrest,uneasiness,anger,anguish,andoutrage.Indeed,ithasbeenobservedthat"thefasterthe
enlightenmentofthepopulation,themorefrequenttheoverthrowofthegovernment."
Thisgapbetweenawakeningmassconsciousnessandmaterialrealityappearstobewidening.Inthe
years19581965theincomepercapitaofanIndianrosefrom$64to$86 andthatofanIndonesianfrom$81to
$85the incomeofanAlgeriandeclinedfrom$236to$19526 Thepercentageoftheeconomicallyactive
populationinfieldsotherthanagriculturegrewsubstantiallyonlyinAlgeria(from10percentto18percent).
Housing,physiciansperthousandinhabitants,andpersonalconsumptiondidnotshowsignificantadvancesfor
themajorbackwardareas.Insometheyevenshowedadecrease.27 (SeeTable6.)

TheSubjectiveTransformation
Althoughobjectiveconditionschangedslowly,thesubjectiveenvironmentalteredrapidly.Spectacular
advancescameprimarilyintwofields:communicationsandeducation.ThenumberofradiosinIndia
quadrupledbetween1958and1966(from1.5millionto6.4million)elsewhereintheThirdWorldthefigures
havedoubledortripled.Thetelevisionageisonlybeginningintheseregions,butbothtransistorradiosand
televisionwillnodoubtbecomegenerallyavailablethereinthenexttwodecades.
Accesstohighereducationhasalsogrownrapidly:inIndiabetween1958and1963theincreasewas
roughly50percent(from900,000to1.3millionstudents),andby1968therewereabout1.9millionstudentsin
2749collegesand80universitiesinIndonesiatheincreasewas30percent(from50,000to65,000)between
1958and1964andintheUnitedArabRepublicitwasmorethan50percent(83,000to145,000)duringthe
samehalfdecade.EnrollmentinIndia'sprimaryschoolsjumpedfrom18.5millionin1951to51.5millionin
1966,accordingtoUNESCOstatistics.(SeeTable7.)
Increasedaccesstoeducationgivesrisetoitsownspecificproblems.Onthe onehand,accessto
advancedtraining,particularlyofatechnicalnature,istoolimitedtosustainextensiveandintensive
modernization.** TheThirdWorldisstillwoefullybackwardinintermediatetechnicaleducation.Ontheother
hand,thecapacityofmanyofthelessdevelopedcountriestoabsorbtrainedpersonnelisinadequatetheresultis
aclassofdissatisfiedcollegegraduates,composedespecially ofthosefromthelegalandliberalartsfaculties,
whoareunabletoobtaingainfulemploymentcompatiblewiththeirexpandedexpectations.Althoughthisprob
lemisalreadyacuteinseveralcountries,28 itcouldbemadeworsebytheintroductionofautomationintothe
overmannedfactoriesandbureaucraciesofthelessdevelopedcountries.

*
Between1887and1904,Russiancoalminingoutputroseby400percent(from5millionto21.5milliontons)andironsmeltingby500
percentbetween1861and1870,5833milesofrailwaywereconstructed,andbetween1891and1900,13,920miles."Coalproductionin
Russiarose40percentintheperiod19091913,asagainstagrowthrateof24percentintheUnitedStates,28percent!inGermany,7percent
inBritain,and9percentinFranceinthesameperiod.Inthecaseofpigiron,Russianoutputroseby61percentintheperiod19091913,
whiletherateofincreaseintheUnitedStateswas 20percent,inGermany33percent,inBritain8percent,andinFrance46percent.
AlthoughtheeconomicbackwardnessofRussiahadnotdisappearedontheeveofthewar,itwasclearlydisappearing.Thestandardofliving
wasnothigh,butitwasrising.InthetwentyyearsprecedingthewarthepopulationofRussiaincreasedbyabout40'percent,whilethe
domesticconsumptionofgoodsmorethandoubled"(S.Pushkarev,TheEmergenceofModernRussia18011917,NewYork,1963,p.280).
YetontheeveofWorldWarItherewereonly117,000studentsinhighereducationinacountryofsome160millionpeople,and56percent
ofthepeoplewereilliterate(Pushkarev,pp.286,292).Ofthechildreninthe811agebracket,49percentwerenotreceivinganyeducation,
whilethepercentageofliteratesamongmilitaryinducteesrosebetween1874and1913atarateofonlyslightlymorethanonepercentper
annum(A.G.Rashin,FormirovanieRabochegoKlassaRossii,Moscow,1958,p.582).

"For66nations,forexample,thecorrelationbetweentheproportionofchildreninprimaryschoolsandthefrequencyofrevolutionwas
.84.Incontrast,for70nationsthecorrelationbetweentherateofchangeinprimaryenrollmentandpoliticalinstabilitywas.61"(SamuelP.
Huntington,PoliticalOrderinChangingSocieties,NewHavenandLondon,1968,p.47).

Itshouldbenotedthattheseareaveragefigures."Asurveyfor196566indicatedthathalfofIndia'spopulationwaslivingonR14.6orless
permonth(about10cinU.S.currencyperday)....Inshorttheverylowaverageincomedoesnotbegintoplumbthedepthsofmiseryin
India"(Myrdal,p.565).

TheChairmanoftheIndianAtomicEnergyCommissionestimatedthatcommunitytelevisionforallthefivehundredandsixtythousand
villagesinIndiacouldbetransmittedbysatelliteinfiveyearsatacostofonly$200million(TheNewYorkTimes,August15,1968).In
September1969theUnitedStatesconcludedanagreementwithIndiaforthecreationby1972ofasatellitethatwillprovidetelevision
programsonagricultureandbirthcontrolforapproximatelyfivethousandvillagesinfourHindispeakingstates(seealsoourearlier
discussionoftheAmericanimpact).
**
Seethetablesonpage27,aswellasthemoreextensivecomparisonsbetweentheThirdWorldandtheUnitedStatesandWesternEurope
(bothcurrentfiguresandprojectionsfortheyear2000)containedinHigherEducation,CommitteeonHigherEducation,London,1963,
especiallyAppendixesIandV.

+"AsthescientificprocessingofinformationwillbeunderwayintheurbancentersofAsia,AfricaandLatinAmericaby1985,large
numbersofclerks,runners,sorters,andfilersthattodayaccountfortheweightofpublicandprivatebureaucracyinIndia,NigeriaorBrazil
willbegintobethreatenedwithdisplacementandtheinsecuritiesofunemployment"(TheUnitedStatesandtheWorldinthe1985Era, p.
91).Itisestimatedthatby1970roughlyonehalfofCeylon'sexpectedonemillionunemployedwillhavecertificatesofhighereducation
("TheInternationalReport,"TheEconomist, June15,1968, p.47).

21
TABLE6
PER CENT OF POPULATION EMPLOYED
PERAPITA GNPINU.S.DOLLARS
OUTSIDE ACRICULTURE
Increase Increase
1958 1966 (inpercentages) 1950 1960 (inpercentages)
UnitedStates 2,602 3,842 48 90.4 935 3i
WestGermany 1,077 2,004 86 742 86.6(1961) 12.4
France 1,301 2,052 58 72.5(1954) 80.2(1962) 77
Italy 598 1,182 98 60.5(1951) 71.8(1962) 11.3
SovietUnion 1,100 1,500 36 52.0 60.8 8.8
(1965) (1959)
Poland 800 l,10O 38 42.8 46.6 38
(1905)
Czechoslovakia I 61.4 80.5,(1965) 191
Japan 344 986 187 74.0
India 72 105 46 27.0(1951) 27.1(1961) 0.1

Indonesia 84 95 13 32.0(1961)
(1963)
UnitedArab
Republic 120 179' 49 373(1947) 433 0.6
(1965)
Brazil 310 333 7 519 48.4 35

PER CENTOF POPULATIONIN

AVERAGEOFPERSONS
LOCALITIES
NUMBEROVER 20,000INHABITANTS PERROOM
Increase Increase
1950 1960 (inpercentages) 1950 1960 (inpercentages)
UnitedStates 41.4 46.9 55 0.7 0.7 0.0
WestGermany 4i5 47.6 6.1 0.9
France 333 1.0 1.0 0.0
(1954) (1954) (1962)
Italy 41.2 ' 13(1951) (1961) 0.2
(1950
SovietUnion 355 15(1956)
(1959)
Poland 255 319 6.4 17(1961)
Czechoslovakia 21.0 253 43 15 13 0.2
(1947) (1961) (i960
Japan 72.0 1.2
(1963)
India 12.0 2.6
(1951)
Indonesia 91
(1955)
UnitedArab
Republic 29.1 29.1 0.0 1.6
(1947) (1955)
Brazil 20.1 28.1 8.0 13 13 0.0

TABLE7
NUMBEROFSTUDENTSIN
NUMBEROFRADIOS
INSTITUTIONSOFHIGHER
LEARNING
Increase Increase
(inper (inper

22
 1958 1965 centages) 1958 1966 centages)
United 3,042,20 5,526,32 81.6 161,000,0 262,700,00 63
States 0 5 00 0
West 173,320 372,929 115 15,263,00 27,400,000 79
Germany 0
France 186,101 509,764 174 10,646,00 15,861,000 49
0
Italy 216,248 300,940 39 6,112,000 11,163,000 83
Soviet 2,178,90 3,860,50 77 36,667,00 76,800,000 109
Union 0 0 0
Poland 111,820 251,864 125 4,465,000 5,593,ooo 25
Czechoslova 48,805 141,687 190 3,317,000 3,829,000 15
kia
Japan 566,551 1,116,43 97 14,610,00 24,787,000 70
0 0
India 913,380 1,310,00 43 1,560,000 6,485,000 316
0(1963)
Indonesia 49,557 65,635 32 631,000 1,250,000 98
(1964)
UnitedArab
Republic 83,251 177,123 113 792,000 1,613,000 104
(1965)
Brazil 86,868 155,781 79 4,000,000 7,500,000 88
(1964)

NUMBEROF TELEVISIONRECEIVERS NUMBEROF TELEPHONES

Increase Increase(in
(inper per
1958 1966 centages) 1958 1966 centages)
United 50,250,000 74,100,000 47 66,630,00 98,789,000 48
States 0
West 2,125,000 12,720,000 499 5,090,102 9,532,417 87
Germany
France 989,000 7,471,000 655 3,703,578 6,554,441 77
Italy 1,098,000 6,855,000 524 2,988,465 6,467,597 116
J
Soviet 1,767,000 19,000,000 975 4.459,ooo 88
Union 2,370,000
(1965)

Poland 85,000 2,540,000 2888 '446,236 1,411,481 216

Czechoslova 328,000 2,375,ooo 624 789,679 1,582,852 100
kia
Japan 1,600,000 19,002,000 1088 4,334,602 16,011,745 269
India 400(1962) 4,000 900 367,000 926,617 153
Indonesia 4,600 90,968 116,332 28
UnitedArab
Republic 128,000 375,000 193 185,452 335,000 81
(1962)
Brazil 700,000 2,500,000 257 928,117 1,431.653 54
SourcesforTables6and7: UNStatistical 19601967 UNESCO
Yearbooks, Yearbook, 1967.

Theproblem,isaggravatedbythefrequentlylowlevelofwhatisofficiallydescribedashighereducation.
Accordingtooneadmittedlyimpressionisticbutperceptiveaccount,"Atagenerousestimate,perhaps5percent
of themassofIndianstudentsininstitutionsofhighereducationarereceivingdecenttrainingbyrecognizable
worldstandards....Inmostplacesacademicstandardshavefallensolowthattheycanhardlybesaidtohave
survived."29 ThisconditionisbynomeanslimitedtoIndia."TeachinginSouthAsianschoolsatalllevelstends
todiscourageindependentthinkingandthegrowthofthatinquisitiveandexperimentalbentofmindthatisso
essentialfordevelopment....TheSouthAsianpeoplesarenotmerelybeinginsufficientlyeducatedtheyare
being miseducatedonahugescale."30 SimilarlyinLatinAmerica:,"Bynowitisfullyrecognizedthateducation

23
inLatinAmericahasfundamentalshortcomings,thatthereisahighilliteracyrate,andthattheeducational
systembearsnorelationtotherequirementsofeconomicdevelopment,quiteapartfromtheseriousdeficiencies
thatexistinotherbasicculturalrespects"31 "Education"ofthissortcontributestotheemergenceofan
inadequatelytrainedclassofyoungerpeoplewhosefrustrations,increasingradicalism,andsusceptibilityto
Utopianappealshavemanyparallelsinthoseofthenineteenthcenturyintelligentsiaofthemorebackward
regionsofEurope,particularlyRussiaandtheBalkans.
To obtainqualityeducation,asmallpercentageofthestudentseitherbecausetheyareunusually
giftedandcanobtainscholarships,orbecausetheycomefromwealthyfamiliesgoabroad.Asaresult,theyare
temptedtoadapttoforeignstylesandmodesof life,andeventoremainabroadineffect,theyoptoutoftheir
ownsocietyeitherbyemigratinginternallyontheirreturn,orsimplybyneverreturning.In1967,forexample,
26percentoftheChinesestudentsstudyingsciencesandengineeringinthe UnitedStateschosenottoreturnto
TaiwanforIndiathepercentagewas21,andforKoreaandPakistanitwas15and13,respectively.32 Itisa
staggeringfactthattheunderdevelopedcountriessuppliedalmostexactlyonehalfofthetotalnumberof
engineers,scientists,andmedicalpersonnelwhoemigratedtothe
UnitedStatesintheyearendingJune1967:10,254outof 20,760.33Itisexpectedthatthisproportion
willactuallyriseintheyearstoCome.34 Atthesametime,manyofthosewhodoreturntotheirnativelandsdo
soafterhavingbecome"immersedinvaluesandaneducationalsystemwhichpreparesindividualstofitinan
advancedcountryandmayunfitthemfordevelopinganappropriatepersonalityforanactivelifeintheirown
community."35
Thecumulativeeffectofthesefactorsmakesforahighlyturbulentandextremelyamorphouspolitical
pattern.WithoutallowingforspecificdifferencesamongThirdWorldcountries,itcanbesaidingeneralterms
thatthepoliticalpyramidinthe lessdevelopedcountrieshasatitsbasethepeasantmasses,stillprimarily
engagedinmanual labourandlargelyilliterate* butnolongerparochially restrictedtotheirimmediate
environment,sincetransistorradiosestablishintimatecontactwiththe nationalsocietyandhelpdevelop
awarenessoftheirmaterialornationaldeprivation nextinorderisarapidlyincreasingurbanpopulation,
composedtoalargeextentoffirstgenerationpostpeasantcitydwellerssearchingfornewsourcesof
authority38 thencomesapseudointelligentsia,whichaccountsforroughlytwotothreepercentofthe
populationandiscomposedofrelativelyyoungpeoplewhoduringthelastdecadehaveacquiredsomeformal
advancededucationoftenofverypoorprofessionalqualityandwho,becausetheylivebadlyandfeelthat
societydoesnotofferthemtheopportunitytowhichtheyareentitled,arehighlysusceptibletomilitant
xenophobiccausesatthetopofthepyramidisarelativelywelleducatedbutnarrowgaugedeliteclass,strug
glingtoachievebothstabilityandprogress(Iran),orsometimestodelayorpreventreforms(someLatin
Americancountries),because,asaBrazilianscholarputit,they"wantitthatway.Inordertomaintaintheir
privileges,theyaredependentontheperpetuationofthestatusquo."37 Theseprivilegesareeitherthoseof
propertyor,morefrequentlyinthecaseofthenewnations,ofbureaucraticposition.
Theghettosoftheglobalcityhave,accordingly,someparallelstotheracialslumsoftheUnitedStates.
InAmericancitiestheproblemisnottheabsenceofdevelopmentorchangeitstemsfromtheperceptionbythe
poorthatevenrapidchangewillnotchangemuchformanyinthenearfuture,andfromtheirgrowingrealization
thatthosewhoarericherarethemselvesbecomingmorallyuneasyoverthematerialgap.Thiscombinationof
factorscreatesasenseofacutedeprivationthatresultsinintensifiedpoliticalhostilitytowardtheoutside
world.38 ThemobilizationofthathostilityintheUnitedStateswasmadepossiblebytheincreaseinthenumber
ofblackAmericansreceivinghighereducationandthereforecapableofprovidingonasociallysignificantscale
theenergizingleadershipfortheexpressionofhithertosuppressedgrievances.Anotherfactorwastherapid
growthinthenumberofblackAmericanslivingincities andthereforereleasedfromthelethargyoftraditional,
whftedominatedruralexistenceandbroughtintodirectcontactwiththewhitecommunity,which,although
essentiallyconservative,hasbecomeincreasinglyambivalentinitsvalues.Withinthiscontext,attemptsat
reformcontributedtofurthertensionandfriction,promptingsome,inthedominantcommunity,toadopta

*
Asof1960,approximately70percentofthemalesover15and90percentofthefemalesover15inPakistanwereilliterateinIndiathe
percentageswere60percentand85percent,respectivelyinIndonesia40percentand70percentandinBurma20percentand60per
cent.InLatinAmericain1960,35.6percentofthemalesand42.6percentofthefemalesinBrazilwereilliterate inArgentina7.5percent
and9.7percentinChile15.1percentand17.6percentinPeru25.6percentand52.4percentandinVenezuela30.2percentand38.3
percent(Myrdal,pp.540,1672UNStatisticalYearbook,1965).

Itisthereforetoolatetosuggestthatsinceparticipationisrunningaheadoftheeffectiveinstitutionalizationofpoliticalprocesses,itmight
bedesirable inordertopreventchaostoeitherlimitordelayprogramsthatstimulatehigherlevelsofparticipationforinstance,by
slowingdowndrivesagainstilliteracysothatliteracydoesnotoutpaceeconomicandpoliticaldevelopment.Evenifthelatterwere
practicable,thedisseminationoftransistorradios(andsoontelevision)isbeginningtohavethesamepoliticallyactivizingeffectthat
literacyhadontheurbanproletariatofthelatenineteenthcentury.Thus,FrantzFanohquitecorrectlyobservedinhisStudiesinaDying
Colonialism(NewYork,1965)that"since1956thepurchaseofaradioinAlgeriahasmeant,nottheadoptionofamoderntechniqueforget
tingnews,buttheobtainingofaccesstotheonlymeansofenteringintocommunicationwiththeRevolution,oflivingwithit"(p.83).

CitieswithpopulationsofoverahundredthousandhavebeenincreasinginAsiaataratethreetimesthatofthegeneralpopulationgrowth
ofthecountriesconcerned(Myrdal,p.469).

TheproportionofallNegroeslivingintheNorthandWestalmostquadrupledfrom1910to1960,when73percentofallNegroesresided
inurbanareasandthusrepresentedamoreurbanizedpopulationthanthewhites,only70percentofwhomresidedinurbanareas(PhilipM.
Hauser,"DemographicFactorsintheIntegrationoftheNegro,"inTheNegroAmerican,TalcottParsonsandKenneth B.Clark,eds.,Boston,
1965,pp.7475).

24
reactionarypostureagainst change,andothers,especiallyamongthedeprived,toarguethatnochangewas
meaningfulwithintheframeworkoftheexisting"system.
Americanracialslumshavegrowninapatternnotunliketheexpansionofthehugeimpoverishedurban
centersofAsia.BlacksfromtheSouthhavetendedtomovetonortherncitiesmoreinreactiontotheirpoverty
andfeltinjusticethanbecauseoftheactualemploymentavailablethere.Therateof,unemploymentinlarge
Americancitiesisseveraltimesmorethanthenationalaverage.InAsia,citiesinhabitedbyimpoverishedand
unproductivemasseshavegrownrapidlyinrecentyearsnotbecauseofemploymentopportunitiesbutbecauseof
ruralpovertyandinsecurity."Insteadofstandingasasymptomofgrowth,asitwasintheWest,urbanizationin
SouthAsiaisanaspectofcontinuedpoverty."39
TheparallelbetweentheghettosoftheglobalcityandtheracialslumsoftheUnitedStatescanbe
extendedtotheproblemsfacedbytheintellectualpoliticaleliteoftheThirdWorld.IntheUnitedStates
"integration"hassofartended tomeantheselectiveassimilationofafewindividualswhocanconformtothe
prevailingnormsofthedominantcommunityhowever,theirassimilationalsomeans,thelossoftalentand
expertisetotheblackcommunity,inwhichthelesseducated'moremilitant"pseudointelligentsia"increasingly
providescharismaticleadershiptothemassesbyexploitingreverseracism.Inlikemanner,theestablishedsocial
elitesoftheThirdWorldhave tendedtoemulate thelifestylesofthemoreadvancedworld,andtoemigrateinto
iteitherdirectlyorvicariously.

ThePoliticalVacuum
Theresultingvacuumisfilledbyanindigenouspseudointelligentsia,whoseviewsareinfluencedbydoctrines
advocatedbyFrantzFanon,RegisDebray,CheGuevara,andothers.NineteenthcenturyEuropeanMarxism,
originallyaddressedtoanurbanproletariatonlyrecentlydivorcedfromrurallife,isromanticallyadaptedtothe
conditionsofindustriallybackwardtwentiethcenturyglobalghettos."Therevolutionaryintellectualisa
virtuallyuniversalphenomenoninmodernizingsocieties.'Nooneisasinclinedtofosterviolenceasa
disgruntledintellectual,atleastwithintheIndiancontext,'HoselitzandWeinerhaveobserved.'Itisthese
personswhocomposethecadresofthelessresponsiblepoliticalparties,whomakeupthenarrowerentourageof
demagoguesandwhobecomeleadersofmillenarianandmessianicmovements,allofwhichmay,whenthe
opportunityis ripe,threatenpoliticalstability.'InIranextremistsofboththeleftandtherightweremorelikely
thanmoderatestobeproductsofthecity,tocomefromthemiddleeconomicstrata,andtobebettereducated."40
Giventhisemotionalcontext,external aid,designedtoovercomethespecificconditionof
backwardnessandpoverty,becomesanadditionalpointoffriction,andevenwhenithelpstoimprovethe
objectivesituationstimulatesfurthersubjectivetension.IntheurbanghettosoftheUnitedStates,
governmentalandprivateaidprogramsadministeredbywhiteshavebeenresentedbytheblackswhen
administeredbytheblacks,however,theyhaveoftenbecometargetsofwhitechargesthatfundsdesignedfor
specificdevelopmentprogramshavebeenusedtoadvanceblackmilitancy.Ontheglobalscale,"neo
colonialism"hasbeentheformulausedtostimulatesuspicionbythemassesofthepoliticalmotivesofeconomic
aidfromtheadvancedcountries* graft,corruption,andinefficiencyhavebeenthe chargesmadebydonor
countriesagainsttherecipientsofeconomicassistance.
Theshifttowardeconomicassistanceonaninternationalbasisisaresponsetothisdangeratleastin
part.Itposesanotherdanger,however.Aidcanatbestbeonlyapartialresponsetoaconditionthat has
profoundlypsychologicalaswellasmaterialroots.Economicassistancecanbeeffectiveonlyif,inaddition,the
recipientcountry'semotionalresourcesaremobilizedandasenseofpopularenthusiasmandpurposeiscreated.
Thisrequiresnativeleadershipthatknowsbothhowtostirthemassesandhowtoutilizeforeignaid
intelligently.Suchleadershipisrarewhereitdoesexistitfrequentlytendstobeunresponsivetoforeignin
terestsandadvice,andthusstimulatesforeignresentment.ThedifficultiesfacedbytheUnitedStatesindealing
withNasserorAyubKhan,whowerenotonlypromotingbutalsorespondingtotheemotionalismoftheirown
masses,arecasesinpoint.
Moreover,evenifthoseinauthorityare determinedtopromotesocialchange,theyarefacedwiththe
intractablefactthattheirrealitycanbechangedonlyverygradually,whilepopularmobilizationonbehalfof
changecanbeattainedonlybystimulatingmassenthusiasm andemotion.Therulers thusconfrontadilemma.
Toadmittherealityoftheslownessofchangeistodeprivethemselvesofthesupportofthemassesand
toyieldthepoliticalinitiativetoradicaldemagoguestomobilizethemassesonbehalfofunattainablegoalsisto
courtaneventualexplosionunlessthatmobilizationbecomesavehicleforsubordinatingthemassesto

*
Onamoresophisticatedlevel,theeconomicsystemoftheadvancedcountriesiscondemnedasinherentlyincapableofprovidingtrue
assistance."Thus,Furtado[theLatinAmericaneconomist]pointsout,thecorporationisdesignedtofittheneedsofprofitmakinginan
advancedeconomy,andwhenonetriestotransplantitstechnologytoimpoverished,developinglands,furiouscontradictionsresult.The
newestmachinessavemanpower ablessingintheUSandacurseinacountrywithrampantunderemployment.Massproduetionrequires
ahugemarketnonexistentinanarchaicagriculturalsociety.So,Furtadoconcludes,theveryStructureofeconomiclifeinthenewnations
forcedupontheminthelastcenturymakes itdifficultforthemtoabsorbthebenefitsofscientificandtechnicalprogressonthoserare
occasionswheretheymighthavetheopportunitytodoso.Thus,therichnationsspecializeinactivitieswhichmakeworkeasier,goodsmore
abundant,leisuremorewidespread,andlivingstandardshigher.Thepoornationsareleftwiththegrubbytasksofprimaryproductionand
withastagnantordecliningmarkettheymustsellcheapandbuydearfromtheboomingfactories"(MichaelHarrington,AmericanPowerin
theTwentiethCentury,NewYork,1967,p.9).

25
centralized,bureaucraticcontrolofthesortthatcommunistleadersprovidemosteffectively.Furthermore,to
obtainthesupportofthepropertiedandmoreeducatedgroups,thereformplannersoftenhaveto"treadmost
warilyinordernottodisruptthetraditionalsocialorder...theypermitthelawstocontainloopholesofallsorts
andevenletthemremainunenforced."41Thedistancebetweenpromiseandattainmentthustendstowiden.
TheprospectisthatfeelingsofintensiveresentmentwillmostlikelygrowasthegapbetweentheThird
Worldandthedevelopedworldwidens.* Indeed,theywillprobablyintensifyasbytheyear2000thespectrum
expandsandrangesfromthefewmostadvancedpostindustrialtechnetronicstates(theUnitedStates,Japan,
Sweden,Canada),tothedozenorsomatureindustrialstates(onlythenapproachingthepresentlevelsofthe
UnitedStates),tothetentofifteencurrently underdevelopedstatesthatby2000willhavereachedthelevelsof
thecurrentlylessadvancedearlyindustrialstates,tothelargegroup(aboutsixty)stillinthepreindustrialstage,
andfinallytothoseremainingstillinextremelyprimitiveconditions.Thethirdandfourthgroups,those
containingthemajorityoftheworld'spopulationandexperiencingatbestonlypartiallyeffectiveprogress,will
inalllikelihoodbethecentersofvolatilepoliticalactivity,resentment,tension,andextremism.42
Inthatcontext,itisdifficulttoconceivehowdemocraticinstitutions(derivedlargelyfromWestern
expteriencebuttypicalonlyofthemorestableandwealthyWesternnations)willendureinacountrylike
Indiaorhowtheywilldevelopelsewhere. "Muchwilldependonthepaceofeconomicdevelopmentitself,
andinthisrespecttheomensarefarfrom favorable."43 Thelikelyconsequenceissporadicturbulencein
individualcountriesandaturntowardpersonaldictatorships.Thelatterwillbebasedonmoreinternally
oriented,thoughsociallyradical,unifyingdoctrinesinthehopethatthe.combinationofxenophobiaandcha
rismamayprovidetheminimumstabilitynecessaryforimposingsocialeconomicmodernizationfromabove.
AsinthecaseofurbanghettosintheUnitedStates,thismaymakeforatenserrelationshipwiththe
moreprosperousandadvancedworld.Thelatterhasinrecentyearscometoacceptatleastasageneral
proposition,andstillgrudginglyamoralobligationtoassistmateriallythedevelopmentoftheThirdWorld.
This"newmorality"wasdoubtlessstimulatedbyColdWarrivalry,whichmadethetwodevelopedcamps
competeinprovidingassistancetothebackwardnations.Itisfarfromcertainthatthesefeelingsofconscience
willpersistiftheColdWarwanes theycertainlywillnotifEastWestrivalryisreplacedbyintensifyingNorth
Southanimosity.Thepeoplesofthedevelopedworldmaywelltakerefugeintheselfservingargumentthatthe
irrationalfanaticismoftheleadersoftheglobalghettosprecludescooperation.Suchanegativeposturewill
ensureboththefurtherwideningofthegulfandamorebittersplitamongmankind,whichisforthefirsttime
beginningtofiveinsubjectiveintimacy.

4.GlobalFragmentationandUnification
Thecumulativeeffectofthetechnetronicrevolutioniscontradictory.Ontheonehand,thisrevolutionmarksthe
beginningsofaglobalcommunityontheotherhand,itfragmentshumanityanddetachesitfromitstraditional
moorings.Thetechnetronicrevolutioniswideningthespectrumofthehumancondition.Itintensifiesthegulfin
thematerialconditionofmankindevenasitcontractsmankind'ssubjectivetoleranceofthatdisparity.
Thoughdifferencesamongsocietiesgraduallydevelopedinthecourseofhumanhistory,itwasnot
untiltheindustrialrevolutionthatthesedifferencesbecamesharp.Todaysomenationsstillliveunderconditions
notunlikethoseofpreChristiantimes,andmanyliveincircumstancesnobetterthanthoseoftheMiddleAges.
Yetsoonafewwillliveinwayssonewthatitisnowdifficulttoimaginethesocialandpersonalramifications.
Theresultcouldbeaprofoundthreewaysplitintheattitudesandviewsofmankind.Thecoexistenceof
agrarian,industrial,andnewtechnetronicsocieties,eachprovidingdifferentperspectivesonlife,wouldmake
understandingmoredifficultattheverytimeitbecomesmorepossible,anditwouldrendertheglobal
acceptanceofcertainnormslesslikelyevenas itbecomesmoreimperative.

FragmentedCongestion
Thisthreewayglobalsplitcouldfurtherstrainthealreadyweakfabricofsocialandpoliticalorderandresultin
domesticand,therefore,possiblyinternationalchaos.GrowinganarchyintheThirdWorldwouldverylikely
involveracistandnationalistpassions.Attheveryleast,thiswouldcreatemajorpocketsofdisruptionandchaos
intheworldatworst,ThirdWorldinstabilitycoulddrawthemoredevelopednationsintopotentially
antagonisticformsofinvolvementthatcouldhavethesameeffectonAmericanSovietrelationsasBalkan
conflictshadontheEuropeanorderpriortoWorldWarI.
Inthemostadvancedworldthetensionbetween"internal"and"external"manbetweenman

*
In1965thepercapitaproductionofthedevelopedworldexceededthatofthelessdevelopedbytwelvetimesitisestimatedthatbythe
year2000theproportionwillbeeighteentimesgreater(HermanKahn andAnthonyJ.Wiener,TheYear2000,NewYork,1967,p.142).In
1965IllinoisalonehadalargergrossproductthanallofAfricaCalifornia,morethanallofChina.

"LikethestatesofseventeenthcenturyEuropethenonWesterncountriesoftodaycan havepoliticalmodernizationortheycanhave
democraticpluralism,buttheycannotnormallyhaveboth"(Huntington,pp.13637).

ThishasbeendulynotedbysomeThirdWorldspokesmen.TheAlgeriandelegatetotheUNEconomicandSocialCouncilmeetingin
GenevasaidinJuly1966,"EvenasthedetenteintheColdWarhaspermittedanattenuationoftheconflictbetweenblocswithdifferent
socialsystems,onemustfearthattheEastWestoppositionwillrevolveonitsaxisandbecomeanantagonismof NorthagainstSouth"(cited
byHarrington,p.20).

26
preoccupiedwithhisinnermeaningandhisrelationshiptotheinfinite,andmandeeplyinvolvedinhis
environmentandcommittedtoshapingwhatherecognizestobefinitepromptsanacutecrisisofphilosophic,
religious,andpsychicidentitythiscrisisisaggravatedby thefearthatman'smalleabilitymaypermitwhatwas
previouslyconsideredimmutablein,mantobeundermined.Theexplosioninscientificknowledgeposesthe
dangerofintellectualfragmentation,withuncertaintyincreasingindirectproportiontotheexpansioninwhat is
known.Theresult,especiallyintheUnitedStates(seePartIVfor moreextendeddiscussion),isanaccelerating
searchfornewsocialandpoliticalforms.
TheimpactoftheUnitedStatesasthefirstglobalsocietyreflectstheseconflictingtendencies.Though
theUnitedStatessearchesforglobalstabilityanddevotesitsenormousresourcestopreventingrevolutionary
upheavals,itssocialimpactontheworldisunsettling,innovative,and,creative.Evenasitprovokesviolent
antagonismtoitself,itsetsoffexpectationsthataremeasuredbyAmericanstandardsandthatinmostcountries
cannotbemetuntilwellintothenextcentury.Itacceleratestheunificationofothersocietiesnotonlybecause
regionalismhassincethe1960sbecomeWashington'sprofessedforeignpolicyformulabutalsobecauseother
nationsseeinunificationthebestweaponforcombatingAmericaninfluence.Initsroleasthefirstglobal
society,itthusunifies,changes,stimulates,andchallengesothersoftenagainstitsownimmediateinterests.
"Americanization"thuscreatescommonaspirationsandhighlydifferentiatedreactions.
IntheThirdWorldtheeffectofUnitedStatesinfluenceistointensifysocialcontradictionsandconflict
betweenthegenerations.Masscommunicationsandeducationcreateexpectations forwhichthematerial
wealthofAmericaprovidesavaguestandardthatsimplycannotbemetbymostsocieties.Sinceneither
communicationsnoreducationcanbecontained,itistobeexpectedthatpoliticaltensionswillmountaspurely
parochial,traditionalattitudesyieldtobroaderglobalperspectives.Intheadvancedworldthecontemporary
challengeincreasinglyfocusesontheidentityofman,butintheThird Worldsocialfragmentationloomsasthe
principalproblemonewhichisinahistoricracewiththeadvancedsocieties'onlyslowlymaturingsenseof
theirglobalresponsibilityforhelpingdeveloptheThirdWorld.
Evennationalismissubjecttocontradictoryinfluences.Nationalismhasneverbeenstrongerandhas
neverbeforeenjoyedsuchextensive,aroused,andconscioussupportfromthepopularmassesaswellasfrom
theintelligentsia.Theinteractionofnationstatesstilldeterminesmattersaffecting warandpeace,andman's
primaryselfidentificationisstillonthebasisofnationalism.ThenonRussianstatesintheSovietUnionare
perhapstheonlyexceptiontonationalism'ssuccessfuldissolutionofcolonialempires.Yetpreciselybecausethis
isso,nationalismisceasingtobethecompellingforcethatdeterminesthebroadcharacterofchangeinourtime.
Thoughstillthesourceofmanytensions,itistemperedbythegrowingrecognition,sharedevenbythemostna
tionalistelites,thattoday regionalandcontinentalcooperationisnecessarytothe fulfilment ofmanypurely
nationalgoals.Thesuccessofnationalismmakesthenationaprincipalobject,butnolongerthevitalsubject,of
dynamicprocesses.
Becausehefindshimselflivingina congested,overlapping,confusing,andimpersonalenvironment,
manseekssolaceinrestrictedandfamiliarintimacy.Thenationalcommunityistheobviousonetoturnto,anda
definitionofwhatanationalcommunityismaywellbecomemorerestrictive asbroadertransnational
cooperationdevelops.Formanypeoplesthenationstatewasacompromisedictatedbyeconomics,bysecurity,
andby otherfactors.Anoptimumbalancewaseventuallystruck,oftenaftercenturiesofconflict.Todaythe
balanceisbecomingunsettled,becausenewerandlargerframeworksofcooperationareemerging,andthe
effectiveintegrationofmuchsmaller,morecohesiveunitsintomuchlargerwholesisbecomingincreasingly
possiblebecauseofcomputers,cybernetics,communications,and so on.
Asaconsequence,theFlemingsandtheWalloonsinBelgium,theFrenchandEnglishCanadiansin
Canada,theScotsandtheWelshintheUnitedKingdom,theBasquesinSpain,theCroatsandtheSlovenesin
Yugoslavia,andtheCzechsandSlovaksinCzechoslovakiaareclaimingandsomeofthenonRussianna
tionalitiesintheSovietUnionandthevariouslinguisticethnicgroupsinIndiamaysoonclaimthattheir
particularnationstatenolongercorrespondstohistoricalneed.Onahigherplane ithasbeenrendered
superfluousbyEurope,orsomeotherregional(CommonMarket)arrangement,whileonalowerplaneamore
intimatelinguisticandreligiouscommunityisrequiredtoovercometheimpactoftheimplosionexplosion
characteristicofthe globalmetropolis.
Thisdevelopmentisthusnotareturntotheemotionsortotheecstaticstyleofnineteenthcentury
nationalism,eventhoughtherearemanysuperficialanalogiestoit.Ittakesplace,byandlarge,inacontextthat
recognizesthecurrentnecessityforbroadercooperationonalevelabovethenational.Itacceptsasanidealthe
functionalintegrationofregionsandevenofwholecontinents.Itisareflectionofthedesireforamoredefined
senseofpersonalityinanincreasinglyimpersonalworld,andofthechangedutilityofsomeoftheexistingstate
structures.ThiscanevenbesaidofGaullism,whichhasoftenbeendescribedasathrowbacktonineteenth
centurynationalism.Nevertheless,Gaullism'smajorambitionwastoconstructaEuropethatwouldbe
"European"andnotdominatedbyanexternalhegemony,though,tobesure,Francewouldexercisepolitical
leadershipinit.
The"new"nationalismhasmanyelementsoftheoldnationalism,especiallyinsomeofthenew
nations.Therenationalismisstillaradical,changingforcecreativelymobilizingcommunityfeelingsbutalso

27
promptingethnicexclusivenessandconflicts.* Yetitisgenerallytrue,astheauthorofasuggestivepapernotes,
that"thevisionandobjectivesofsociety[have]changed.Todayanewconceptofmanandhisworldis
challengingtheconceptsoftheRenaissancewhichhaveguidedman'sbehaviorforthepastfivehundredyears."
Thenationstateasafundamentalunitofman'sorganizedlifehasceasedtobethe principalcreativeforce:
"Internationalbanksandmultinationalcorporationsareactingandplanningintermsthatarefarinadvanceof
thepoliticalconceptsofthenationstate."44 Butasthenationstateisgraduallyyieldingitssovereignty,the
psychologicalimportanceofthenationalcommunityisrising,andtheattempttoestablishanequilibrium
betweentheimperativesofthenewinternationalismandtheneedforamoreintimatenationalcommunityisthe
sourceoffrictionsandconflicts.
Theachievementofthatequilibriumisbeingmademoredifficultbythescientificandtechnological
innovationsinweaponry.Itisironictorecallthatin1878FriedrichEngels,commentingontheFrancoPrussian
War,proclaimedthat"weaponsusedhavereachedsuchastageofperfectionthatfurtherprogresswhichwould
haveanyrevolutionizinginfluenceisnolonger,possible."45Notonlyhavenewweaponsbeendevelopedbut
someofthebasicconceptsofgeographyandstrategyhavebeenfundamentallyalteredspaceandweather
control havereplacedSuezorGibraltaraskeyelementsofstrategy.
Inadditiontoimprovedrocketry,multimissiles,andmorepowerfulandmoreaccuratebombs,future
developmentsmaywellincludeautomatedormannedspacewarships,deepseainstallations,chemicaland
biologicalweapons,deathrays,andstillotherformsofwarfareeventheweathermaybetamperedwith.
Thesenewweaponscouldeitherencourageexpectationsofonesided,relatively"inexpensive"victorypermit
proxy conteststhatwillbedecisiveintheirstrategicpoliticaloutcomebutwillbefoughtbyonlyafewhuman
beings(asintheBattleofBritain)orevenbyrobotsinouterspace46 orsimplycreatesuchmutualinstabilitythat
thebreakdownofpeacewillbecomeinevitable,inspiteofman'srationalrecognitionofthefutilityofwar.
Inaddition,itmaybepossibleandtemptingtoexploitforstrategicpoliticalpurposesthefruitsof
researchonthebrainandonhumanbehavior.GordonJ.F.MacDonald,a geophysicistspecializinginproblems
ofwarfare,haswrittenthataccuratelytimed,artificiallyexcitedelectronicstrokes"couldleadtoapatternof
oscillationsthatproducerelativelyhighpowerlevelsovercertainregionsoftheearth....Inthisway,onecould
developasystemthatwouldseriouslyimpairthebrainperformanceofverylargepopulationsinselectedregions
overanextendedperiod....Nomatterhowdeeplydisturbingthethoughtofusingtheenvironmentto
manipulatebehaviorfornationaladvantagestosome,thetechnologypermittingsuchusewillveryprobably
developwithinthenextfewdecades."47
Suchtechnologywillbeavailableprimarily,andtobeginwithexclusively,tothemostadvanced
countries. ButitislikelythatinthecomingdecadessomestatesintheThirdWorldwillhavetakenmajorsteps
towardacquiringorwillhaveacquired highlydestructiveweaponry.Eveniftheyarenotcapableofusingit
againstthemajorpowerswithoutbringingabouttheirownextinction,theymaybeableandtemptedtouseitin
"underworld"warsamongthemselves.Thequestionthenariseswhethersuchwarswouldbeinterpretedbythe
majorpowersasposingadirectthreattothefabricofpeace,andwhetherajointresponsebythemwouldbe
effectivelymountedandimposed.Theabsenceofacceptedglobalinstitutionscouldtemporarilybeovercomeby
adhoc arrangementsandagreementsdesignedtomeetspecificthreats,butitisconceivablethatinsomecases
therewillnotbesufficientunanimitytopermitjointreactions.Themutualannihilationofsomelesserstatesthus
remainsatleastapossibility.

TowardaPlanetaryConsciousness
Yetitwouldbewrongtoconcludethatfragmentationandchaosarethedominantrealitiesofourtime.Aglobal
humanconscienceisforthefirsttimebeginningtomanifestitself.Thisconscienceisanaturalextensionofthe
longprocessofwideningman'spersonalhorizons.Inthecourseoftime,man'sselfidentificationexpandedfrom
hisfamilyto hisvillage,tohistribe,tohisregion,tohisnationmorerecentlyitspreadtohiscontinent(before
WorldWarIIitwasnotascustomaryasitisnowforuniversitystudentsorintellectualstodescribethemselves
merelyasEuropeansorAsians).

*
"....InspiteofalltheparallelstoEuropeannationalism,thenewnationalisminSouthAsiaissomethingverydifferent.Itdiffersinmany
morerespectsandformorefundamentalreasonsthanappears fromthequalificationsjustlisted.Thefundamentalreasonisthatanhistorical
processthatinEuropespanscenturiesistelescopedwithinafewdecadesandthattheorderofthehappeningsisderanged....Nationalism
thereisneededtoprovidethe impulseforchangeindeed,forallthenecessarychanges,andconcurrently.Thedifficultiesinthis
syncopationofpolicies,thehistoricalnecessityofwhichisseenbyalltheenlightenedintellectualandpoliticalleadersintheregion,are
immense" (Myrdal,pp.211819).

Asonespecialistnoted,"Bytheyear2018,technologywillmakeavailabletotheleadersofthemajornationsavarietyoftechniquesfor
conductingsecretwarfare,ofwhichonlyabareminimumofthesecurityforcesneedbeappraised.Onenationmayattackacompetitor
covertlybybacteriologicalmeans,thoroughlyweakeningthepopulation(thoughwithaminimumoffatalities)beforetakingoverwithits
ownovertarmedforces.Alternatively,techniquesofweathermodificationcouldbeemployedtoproduceprolongedperiodsofdroughtor
storm,therebyweakeninganation'scapacityandforcingittoacceptthedemandsofthecompetitor"(GordonJ.F.MacDonald,Space,"in
TowardtheYear2018,p.34).

Thishasledoneconcernedscholartocomment,"Whetheritisusedtokill,hurt,nauseate,paralyze,causehallucination,ortoterrify
militarypersonnelandcivilians,thesystematicuseofbiologicalandchemicalwarfarewillrequiretheresolutionofmajormoralandethical
problems"(DonaldN.Michael,"SomeSpeculationsontheSocialImpactofTechnology,"mimeographedtextofaddresstotheColumbia
UniversitySeminaronTechnologyandSocialChange,p.6).

28
DuringthelastthreecenturiesthefadingoftheessentiallytransnationalEuropeanaristocracyandthesuccessive
nationalizationoftheChristianchurch,ofsocialism,andofcommunismhavemeantthatinrecenttimesmost
significantpoliticalactivityhas tendedtobeconfinedwithinnationalcompartments.Todayweareagain
witnessingtheemergenceoftransnationalelites,butnowtheyarecomposedofinternationalbusinessmen,
scholars,professionalmen,andpublicofficials.Thetiesofthesenewelitescutacrossnationalboundaries,their
perspectivesarenotconfinedbynationaltraditions,andtheirinterestsaremorefunctionalthannational.These
globalcommunitiesaregaininginstrengthanck aswastrueintheMiddleAges,itislikelythatbeforelong the
socialelitesofmostofthemoreadvancedcountrieswillbehighlyinternationalistorglobalistinspiritand
outlook.Thecreationoftheglobalinformationgrid,facilitatingalmostcontinuousintellectualinteractionand
thepoolingof knowledge,willfurtherenhancethepresenttrendtowardinternationalprofessionalelitesand
towardtheemergenceofacommonscientificlanguage(ineffect,thefunctionalequivalentofLatin).This,how
ever,couldcreateadangerousgapbetweenthem andthepoliticallyactivatedmasses,whose"nativism"
exploitedbymorenationalistpoliticalleaderscouldworkagainstthe"cosmopolitan"elites.
Increasingly,theintellectualelitestendtothinkintermsofglobalproblems.Onesignificantaspectof
thisprocessisthewayinwhichcontemporarydilemmasareidentified:theneedtoovercometechnical
backwardness,toeliminatepoverty,toextendinternationalcooperationineducationandhealth,topreventover
population,todevelopeffectivepeacekeepingmachinery.* These areallglobalissues.Onlythirtyyearsagothey
weresimplynotintheforefrontofpublicattention,whichwasrivetedatthetimeonmuchmorespecific
regional,national,orterritorialconflicts.
Thetechnetronicrevolutioncreatesconditionsthatincreasinglymakepossibleglobalresponsestothese
needsandtohumansufferingingeneral.Indeed,arudimentaryframeworkofglobalsocialandeconomic
institutionshasalreadytakenshape. Theavailabilityofthemeanstocooperategloballyintensifiesthesenseof
obligationtoact.Conscienceiseasilypacifiedbyafeelingoffutility.Anuneasyconscienceisusuallyonethat
knowsthatitcanactdifferently.Thesenseofproximity,theimmediacyofsuffering,thegloballydestructive
characterofmodernweaponsallhelptostimulateanoutlookthatviewsmankindasacommunity.
Itisahopefulsigninthisconnectionthattheyardsticksbywhichthepublicmeasuresinternational
competitionareundergoingaconstructive change.Intherecentpast,andeveninthepresent,territorial
expansion,population,andvaguenationalclaimsofculturalandideologicalsuperiority,aswellasmilitary
poweringeneralandvictoryindirectcontestsinparticular,haveprovidedthe criteriaformeasuringstatusand
influence.GraduallythesearegivingwaytorivalryinGNPfigures,percapitaincomeandconsumptiondata,
educationalopportunities,creativeandscientificattainments,researchanddevelopment,standardsofhealthand
nutrition,andevencompetitivenationalOlympicscores,tosaynothingofthespaceracebetweenthetwosuper
powers.Toanyonelivingin1914thecurrentinternationalrivalry inproducingmoreimpressivechartsandin
definingnewindicesformeasuringnationalstatuswouldbewellnighincomprehensibleatthattimenationalist
geopoliticsprovidedamoredirect appeal.
Todayadifferentorientationisbecomingdominant.Socialproblemsareseenlessastheconsequence
ofdeliberateevilandmoreastheunintendedbyproductsofbothcomplexityandignorancesolutionsarenot
soughtinemotionalsimplificationsbutintheuseofman'saccumulatedsocialandscientificknowledge.
Increasingly,itisfeltthatthevariationsinbothscientificdevelopmentandthehumanpsychedonotlend
themselvestodoctrinalsolutionsformulatedinadvanceinaddition,theunanticipatedconsequencesofthe
discoveriesofsciencehaveproduced,especiallyinthemoreadvancedcountries,anawarenessthatthebasic
issuesfacingmanhaveacommonsignificanceforhumansurvival,irrespectiveofinternationalinternal
diversity.
Theconcernwithideologyisyieldingtoapreoccupationwithecology.Itsbeginningscanbeseenin
theunprecedented'publicpreoccupationwithmatterssuchasairandwaterpollution,famine,overpopulation,
radiation,andthecontrolofdisease,drugs,andweather,aswellasintheincreasinglynonnationalisticap
proachestotheexplorationofspaceoroftheoceanbed.Thereisalreadywidespreadconsensusthatfunctional
planningisdesirableandthatitistheonlywayto copewiththevariousecologicalthreats.48 Furthermore,given
thecontinuingadvancesincomputersandcommunications,thereisreasontoexpectthatmoderntechnology
willmakesuchplanningmorefeasibleinaddition,multispectralanalysisfromearthsatellites(abyproductof
thespacerace)holdsoutthepromiseofmoreeffectiveplanninginregardtoearthresources.
Thenewglobalconsciousness,however,isonlybeginningtobecomeaninfluentialforce.Itstilllacks
identity,cohesion,andfocus.Muchofhumanityindeed,themajorityofhumanitystillneithersharesnoris
preparedtosupportit.Scienceandtechnologyarestillusedtobuttressideologicalclaims,tofortify national

* "Wearediscoveringtheneedforcoordinationattheworldlevel,forlookingaheadsothatthepiecescanbefittedtogethermoreprecisely.
Thishasbroughtustothebeginningofglobalplanning.FAOisapioneer:itsIndicativeWorldPlanisthefirstsuchattempt,theprototype
versionofwhichwillbereadyin1969.TheILOisworkinghardonaWorldEmploymentPlan.
"TheU.N.'sCenterforDevelopmentPlanning,ProjectionsandPolicies(CDPPP)ispreparingwhatcouldwellbecalledtheframeworkfora
masterplancoveringallsuchactivities.Thisispartofthetaskimposedonitbyassemblyresolutionswhichrequestthesecretarygeneral,in
plainwords,topreparefuturedevelopmenteffortswhichareanimprovementonthepresentdevelopmentdecade"(JanTinbergen,"TheWay
OutoftheLabyrinth," Ceres (FAOReview),Vol.1,No.3,MayJune1968,p.20).

Tolistbutafew:aworldhealthorganization,aworldfoodandagriculturalorganization,aworldlabororganization,aworldeducational
andculturalorganization,aworldbank,aglobalmeteorologicalorganization,aninternationalatomicenergyagency,aninternationalcivil
aviationorganization,aninternationalagencyforthepeacefulusesofouterspace,anagencyfortappingtheoceanbeds,etc.

29
aspirations,andtorewardnarrowlynationalinterests.Moststatesarespendingmoreonarmsthanonsocial
services,andtheforeignaidallotmentofthetwomostpowerfulstatesishighlydisproportionateto theirasserted
globalmissions.* Indeed,itcanbearguedthatinsomerespectsthedivided,isolated,andcompartmentalized
worldofoldhadmoreinnercohesionandenjoyedgreaterharmonythanthevolatileglobalrealityoftoday.
Establishedcultures,deeplyentrenchedtraditionalreligions,anddistinctivenationalidentitiesprovidedastable
frameworkandfirmmooringsdistanceandtimeweretheinsulatorsagainstexcessivefrictionbetweenthe
compartments.Todaytheframeworkisdisintegratingandtheinsulantsaredissolving.Thenewglobalunityhas
yettofinditsownstructure,consensus,andharmony.

*
Itwasestimatedthatin1966globalarmsspendingwas40percentgreaterthantheworld'soutlaysforeducationandwasmorethanthree
timesgreaterthantheworld'spublichealthbudget.InthatsameyearthetotalforeignaidextendedbytheUnitedStateswasapproximately
$4billion,bytheSovietUnionapproximately$330million(bothsetsoffiguresfrom"WorldMilitaryExpenditures,19661967,"U.S.Arms
ControlandDisarmamentAgency,Washington,D.C.,1968,especiallypp.912).

30
PARTII
TheAgeofVolatileBelief
Theageofvolatilebeliefisintimatelylinkedwiththeimpactofthetechnetronicrevolutiononexisting
ideologiesandoutlooksonlife.Whatmanthinksiscloselyrelatedtowhatmanexperiences.Therelationship
betweenthetwoisnotcausalbutinteracting:experienceaffectsthought,andthoughtconditionsthe
interpretationofexperience.Todaythedominantpatternseemsincreasinglytobethatofhighlyindividualistic,
unstructured,changingperspectives.Institutionalizedbeliefs,theresultofthemergerofideasandinstitutions,
nolongerappeartomanyasvitalandrelevant,whiletheskepticismthathascontributedsoheavilytothe
underminingofinstitutionalizedbeliefsnowclasheswiththenewemphasisonpassionandinvolvement.The
resultformanyisaneraoffads,ofrapidlyshiftingbeliefs,withemotionsprovidingforsometheunifying
cementpreviouslysuppliedbyinstitutionsandwiththefadedrevolutionaryslogansofthepastprovidingthe
neededinspirationforfacinganaltogetherdifferentfuture.
Severalbroadphasescanbediscernedintheformationofthecollectivehumanconsciousnessthat
conditionsourresponsetorealityandprovidestheframeworkforintellectuallystructuringthatreality.Thegreat
religionsofrecordedhistorywerecrucialinestablishingaperspectivethatlinkedman'sindividualpreoccupation
withhisinnerlifetoauniversalGod,whowasthesourceofastandardof behaviourbindinguponall.Reality
wasGodgiven,andthelinebetweenthefiniteandtheinfinitewasblurred.
Theideologicalphaseassociatedwithindustrializationandthespreadofliteracy involvedamuch
higherpropensitytowardsocialactivismandemphasizedmoreimmediategoals,asdefinedeitherintermsofthe
nationorsomeothercollectivegood,theexternalconditionofmanbeingtheprimaryfocus.Activismcalledfor
amoreexplicitdefinitionofourreality,andsystematic,evendogmatic,intellectualframeworksweremeantto
meetthatneed.
Inourtimetheestablishedideologiesarecomingunderattackbecausetheirinstitutionalizedcharacter,
whichwasonceusefulinmobilizing therelativelyuneducatedmasses,hasbecomeanimpedimenttointellectual
adaptation,whiletheirconcernwiththeexternalqualitiesoflifeisincreasinglyfelttoignoretheinner,more
spiritualdimension.Commitmenttoindividualaction,basedonmoralindignationandstimulatedbyamuch
higherlevelofgeneraleducation,hasbecomeasubstituteforhighlyorganizedactivity,thoughitavoidsthe
passivityandindifferencetoexternalrealitythatwascharacteristicofthepreideologicalage.
Compellingideologiesthusaregivingwaytocompulsiveideas,butwithouttheeschatologythat
characterizedotherhistoricaleras.Yetthereisstillafeltneedforasynthesisthatcandefinethemeaningandthe
historicalthrustofourtimes.Inthatsearchthedominatingpassionisequalityamongmenwithininstitutions,
withinsocieties,amongraces,andamongnations.Equalitymotivatesboththerebelsintheuniversitiesinthe
WestandintheEastandthenewnationsintheirstruggleagainstthebetterestablishedandricherones.This
emphasis,aswellasthefearofpersonalobsolescence,causesconcerninmanythatthenewpostindustrialage
willrequireevengreaterdifferentiationinskills,competences,andintellectualpreparation,therebywideningthe
disparitieswithinthehumanconditionatatimeofeverintensifyingglobalinteraction.

1.TheQuestforaUniversalVision
"Mancamesilentlyintotheworld."1 Butthoughhiscomingisshroudedinmysteryinthesensethat
westillknowlittleabouttheactualbeginningsofhumanexistencefromearliestknownhistorymanhasgiven
evidenceofanintenseyearningtounderstandhimselfandhisenvironment.Howevercrudelyandprimitively,
manhasalwayssoughttocrystallizesomeorganizingprinciplethatwould,bycreatingorderoutofchaos,relate
himtotheuniverseandhelpdefinehisplaceinit.2
Despitethedisappearanceinearliertimesofentirecultures,3humanevolutionorsocial
developmenthasinvolvedbothanexpansioninman's awarenessofhimselfandhisfellowsasahumanentity
endowedwithcertaincommonqualitiesandanincreasinglysystematicintellectualefforttodefineandorganize
hisexternalrealitymeaningfully.TherehasthusbeenatworkwhatTeilharddeChardinhascalled"an
augmentationofconsciousness...astreamwherebyacontinuingandtransmissibletraditionofreflectionis
establishedandallowedtoincrease."4
Intermsoftheentiretyofhumanexistence,that"stream"mayindeedbeashortone,asthecriticsofthe
notionofhistorical progressreadilypointout.Nevertheless,recordedhistorydoesprovidestrongevidenceof
growthoftenhaltinganduneven,butgrowthnonethelessinman'sconsciousnessofacommonhumanfate,of
certainuniversalcravings, andofcommonmoralstandard.* Evenwhentheycompete,religionsandideologies

*
Wearetalkinghereaboutourhistoryofourhistoricalcivilization.ClaudeLeviStraussisotherwisequiterightinpointingoutthat"...it
isforgottenthateachofthetensorhundredsofthousandsofsocietieswhichhaveexistedsidebysideintheworldorsucceededoneanother
sinceman'sfirstappearance,hasclaimedthatitcontainstheessenceofallthemeaninganddignityofwhichhumansocietyiscapableand,
reducedthoughitmayhavebeentoasmallnomadbandorahamletlostinthedepthsoftheforest,itsclaimhasinitsowneyesrestedona
moralcertaintycomparabletothatwhichwecaninvokeinourowncase.Butwhetherintheircaseorourown,agooddealofegocentricity

31
haveincreasinglydonesointermsofandforthesakeofprinciplesthatseem,whenviewedfromahistorical
perspective,moreandmoretoinvolvesemanticandnotsubstantivedifferences.Thisisnottodenythatpractice
hasoftenwidelydiffered,itis,however,remarkablethatconflictshavebeenwagedovercompetitiveclaimsto
asuperiorinterpretationandapplicationofsuchuniversalvaluesasdemocracy,welfare,individualdignity,and
personalfreedom.

TheUniversalReligions
Thecrucialbreakthroughinthedevelopmentofhumanselfawarenessonamassscalecamewiththegreat
religionsthefirstuniversalsynthesesthatsimultaneouslyexpandedman'svisionbothverticallyand
horizontally:vertically,todefineinextendedandcomplextermsman'srelationshiptoaGodthatwasnotasmall
group'salone buteveryone's horizontally,toarticulateaseriesofimperativesthatgovernedman'sobligationsto
manonthegroundsthatallsharedthedivinespark.Universalismthusemergedasastateofmindevenatatime
whenmanwasstill provincialandisolatedinmutuallyexclusivesocialculturalcompartments.
Accordingly,thebirthoftheuniversalreligionsrepresentstheappearaneeofhumanity qua humanity.
Theassertionofman'sequalitybeforeGodintermsofhisspirit,hisconscience,orhissoul,laidthebasisforthe
transcendentalimportanceofthehumanbeingandforthemuchlaterassertionofthe equalityofmenintheir
politicalandsocialdimensions.Inthatsense,proselytizingChristianity,whichuniversalizedthemorelimited
GreekandJudaictradition,wasaparticularlyrevolutionaryforceandwasviewedassuchbyestablished
authority,inspiteofthedistinctionitmadebetweenequalitybeforeGodandobeisancetoCaesaronCaesar's
terms.Ifhumanhistorycanbesaidtoinvolvebothastruggleiandanevolutiontowardtheprogressiveliberation
ofman,thentheattainmentofequalitybeforethesupernaturalwasthefirstmajorsteponthatroad.
Butearlymancouldneithercontrolnorcomprehendeitherhimselforhisenvironment.Bothwere
essentiallyamystery,agiventobeaccepted,whateverthepainsoflifemightbe.Asaconsequence,thedistant
futurebecameamuchmoreintenseobjectofpreoccupationthantheimmediatepresent.Theinabilitytocope
effectivelywithdisease,plagues,infantmortality,ashortlifespan,ornaturaldisasterssuchasfloodsandcrop
blightspromptedmantoseekrefugeinallencompassingdefinitionsofhisreality.Theseinturnprovidedat
leastpartialjustificationfortheviewthathumanendeavorwasfutileandforthenecessityofacceptingevents
withfatalism.Bytakingrefugeinanautonomous,distant,divinefuture,manrelievedhimselfoftheobligation
tostruggleintenselywiththepresentundercircumstanceshewasneitherintellectuallynorpracticallyprepared
for.
Eventhenotionof"freewill"acentralcomponentofthemostactivistofthegreatreligions,Christianity
basicallyinvolvedaninneractofconsciencenecessaryforthestateofgrace,ratherthanapointofdeparturefor
morallymotivatedexternalaction.Nostresswasplacedonthestruggletoimproveexternalconditions,because
theunstatedassumptionwasthattheycouldnotbefundamentallyimproved.Theemphasiswasontheinner
manbyrivetinghisattentionontheuniversalandthedivinefuture,mancouldmasterthepresentbysimply
ignoringit.Minimumsocial actionwasmatchedbymaximumcommitmenttothesupernatural.
Tomeetthecentralneedoftheirtimemainly,toprovidemanwithafirmmooringinaworldwhich
couldnotbecomprehendedandtoassertfirmcontroloverman'sspirit,religiousbeliefscrystallizedinto
dogmasandwereorganizedintoinstitutions.* Themoreindividuallydemandingthereligion,thehigherwasthe
degreeofinstitutionalization. (ThishaspromptedtheanalogiesmadebyanumberofscholarsbetweenIslam
andChristianityontheonehandandcommunismontheother.)5 Withtheinstitutionalizationcamemore
activism(theCrusadesandtheholywarsofIslam)andtheexerciseofmusclebyreligiousorganizationsontheir
environment.Powerwasasserted,however,toextendtheconquestofthespirit,nottoeffectsocialchange.The
institutionalizationofbeliefthuscombinedtwofunctions:itwasthezealots'selfdefensemechanismagainsta
nonbelievingenvironment,anditwasatoolforsustainedproselytization,onedesignednotonlytowinover
adherentsbuttoovercometheinertialresistanceofthemasses,whowerelargelyindifferenttospiritual
requirements.6
AlthoughChristianityhasbeenthemostactivistofthegreatreligionsandhastherebylaidthebasisfor
thesubsequentsecularrevolutionarymovementsthathavedominatedWesternhistory,theprocessof
institutionalizationandhencetheemergenceonthepartoforganizedreligionofastakeinthe statusquohas
tendedtomutetheradicalmessageintheChristianconceptofhistory:themovementtowardsalvation"onearth

andnaivetyisnecessarytobelievethatmanhastakenrefugeinasingleoneofthehistoricalorgeographicalmodesofhis existence,when
thetruthaboutmanresidesinthesystemoftheirdifferencesandcommonproperties"(TheSavageMind,Chicago,1966,p.249).
*
IdonotproposenordoIfeelqualifiedtobecomeinvolvedinthedebateamongMarxists,Freudians,andJungiansconcerningthe
autonomyandthefunctionalityofreligiousdevelopment.Myconcernhereiswiththeemergenceofaconceptualandinstitutional
frameworkfordefiningman'srelationshiptohisreality.

AnextremeexampleisprovidedbytheCatholic Church'sinsistenceoncelibacy.Asonescholarhasnoted,"Celibacyensuredforitan
exclusiveloyaltyofitspersonnelthatwasunavailabletoothermodernreligiousinstitutions.Itoftencontributedtoitsamazingcapacityto
resistsecularauthority.Itisworthnotinginpassingthatchurcheswithmarriedpriesthoods,betheyLutheran,Anglican,orGreekOrthodox
(thelatterallowingmarriageonlyforthelowerordersofpriests),havenotbeenabletostandupagainstsecularauthorityinaway
comparabletothatoftheCatholicChurch.TheProtestantandOrthodoxchurcheshavetypicallybeenservantsandappendagesofsecular
authority.Theyrarelycouldaffordtoresistit.Onereasonforthiswaspreciselythattheirclericalpersonnelwasdeeplyinvolvedinthemesh
ofcivilsociallife"(LewisA.Coser,"GreedyOrganizations,"EuropeanJournalofSociology,Vol.7,1967,p.206).

32
asinHeaven."ThusinpracticetheChristianchurcheshavegraduallycometoacceptsocialstratificationand
eventobenefitfromit(asinLatinAmerica),andsomeLutheranvarietieshave evencometosanctionindogma
conceptsofracialinequalitythatareatextremevariancewiththeinitialegalitarianrevolutionrepresentedbythe
newChristianrelationshipbetweenGodandman.
Theothergreatreligionshavebeenmorepassivebothinpracticeandintheory.Buddhismdoesnot
containimperativesforsocialchangebutofferssalvationfromreality.UnlikeChristianity,nirvanadidnotserve
asaspringboardfortemporalactivism.Similarly,Islam'sdominantstrainoffatalismhasworkedagainstthe
presenceofatleastthatelementoftensionbetween"eternalpeace"and"heavenonearth"thatissostrongin
Christianityandthathasprompteditsrepressedactivism.7

TheNationalIdentity
WiththegrowthintheWestofman'sabilityto masterhisenvironment,secularrationalism,
accompaniedbyagreaterawarenessofsocialcomplexityaswellasbyabreakdownintheexistingstructureof
religiousallegiance,emergedtochallengeinstitutionalizedreligion.Thatreligiousallegiancesimultaneously
restedonthenarrownessandontheuniversalismofman'shorizons:thenarrownessderivedfrommassive
ignorance,illiteracy,andavisionconfinedtotheimmediateenvironmentbylimitedcommunicationsthe
universalismwasprovidedbytheacceptance oftheideathatman'sdestinyisessentiallyinGod'shandsandthat
thelimitedpresentisbutasteppingstonetoanunlimitedfuture.Emergingsecularismchallengedboth
dimensions,andinsodoingrequiredfortheexternalprojectionofman'sidentityanintermediaryfocusof
loyaltysomethinginbetweentheimmediateandtheinfinite.Thenationstateandnationalismwerethere
sponses.
Thedoctrineofsovereigntycreatedtheinstitutionalbasisforchallengingthesecularauthorityofestablished
religion,andthischallengeinturnpavedthewayfortheemergenceoftheabstractconceptionofthenation
state.Sovereigntyvestedinthepeople,insteadofsovereigntyvestedintheking,wastheconsummationofthe
processwhichinthetwo centuriesprecedingtheFrenchandAmericanrevolutionsradicallyalteredthestructure
ofauthorityintheWest* andpreparedthegroundforanewdominantconceptofreality.Thenationstate
becamesimultaneouslytheembodimentofpersonalcommitmentsandthepointofdepartureforanalyzing
reality.Thisdevelopmentmarkedanewphaseinman'spoliticalconsciousness.
Nationalismdidnotseektodirecttheindividualtowardtheinfinite,buttoactivatetheimpersonal
massesforthesakeofimmediatelyproximategoals.Paradoxically,theseconcretegoalswerederivedfromthe
stillintangibleandtranscendental,though new,objectofworship:thenation.Thenationbecamethesourceof
ecstatic,lyricalaffection,anditwas thishighlyemotionalrelationship,symbolizedbythenewanthems("La
Marseillaise"),flags,andheroes,thatservedtoenergizethepopulace.Theconcretegoalstooktheformof
massivepreoccupationwithfrontiers,irredenta,"brethren"toberegainedfromforeigncaptivity,and,more
generally,thepowerandthegloryofthestateastheformalexpressionofthenation.Thestatethusbecamethe
institutionalformforthenewdominantbelief,withamonopolisticclaimontheactivededicationtoitof man,
nowdesignated,firstandaboveall,asthecitizen.
Thedesignation"manthecitizen"symbolicallymarksanothermilestoneintheevolutionofmanasa
socialbeing.EqualitybeforeGodwasnowmatchedbyequalitybeforethelawspiritualegalitarianismwasnow
reinforcedbylegalegalitarianism.ItisofnotethatlegalequalitywasassertedbothbytheAmericanRevolution,
whichsupplementeditsstressonequalitybeforethelawwithastrongattachmenttoreligiousvaluesindeed,it
derivedtheformerfromthelatterandbytheFrenchRevolution,whichconstructeditspantheonofhuman
equalitybyexplicitlyrejectingthereligioustradition.Inbothcasesthelegalequalityofthecitizenwas
postulatedasauniversalprincipleandthusitmarkedanothergiantstepintheprogressiveredefinitionofman's
natureandplaceinourworld.
Withnationalism,thedistinctionbetweentheinnercontemplativeman,concernedwithhisrelationship
toGod,andtheexternalman, concernedwithshapinghisenvironment,becameblurred.Nationalismasan
ideologywasmoreactivistman'srelationstomanwereobjectivizedexternallybylegalnormsandwerenot
dependent,aswasman'srelationtoGod,onpersonalconscienceyetatthesametimethedefinitionofmanasa
"national"wasbasedlargelyonabstract,historicallydetermined,andhighlyemotionalcriteria.Thisoutlook
involvedconsiderablevaguenessandevenirrationalitywhenusedasaconceptualframeworkwithinwhich
relationsbetweennationsanddevelopmentswithinnationsmightbeunderstood.Nationalismonlypartially
increasedmen'sselfawarenessitmobilizedthemactivelybutfailedtochallengetheircriticalfacultiesitwas
moreamassvehicleforhumanpassionandfantasizingthanaconceptualframeworkthatmadeitpossibleto

*
"Inbothitsreligiousanditssecularversions,inFilmeraswellasinHobbes,theimportofthenewdoctrine ofsovereigntywasthe
subject'sabsolutedutyofobediencetohisking.Bothdoctrineshelpedpoliticalmodernizationbylegitimizingtheconcentrationofauthority
andthebreakdownofthemedievalpluralisticpoliticalorder.Theyweretheseventeenthcenturycounterpartsofthetheoriesofparty
supremacyandnationalsovereigntywhicharetodayemployedtobreakdowntheauthorityoftraditionallocal,tribal,andreligiousbodies.In
theseventeenthcentury,massparticipationinpoliticsstilllayinthefuturehencerationalizationofauthoritymeantconcentrationofpower
intheabsolutemonarch.Inthetwentiethcentury,thebroadeningofparticipationandtherationalizationofauthorityoccursimultaneously,
andhenceauthoritymustbeconcentratedineitherapoliticalpartyorinapopularcharismaticleader,bothofwhicharecapableofarousing
themassesaswellaschallengingtraditionalsourcesofauthority.Butintheseventeenthcenturytheabsolutemonarchwasthefunctional
equivalentofthetwentiethcentury'smonolithicparty"(Huntington,p.102).

33
dissectandthendeliberatelyreassembleourreality.

IdeologicalUniversalism
ThatiswhyMarxismrepresentsafurthervitalandcreativestageinthematuringofman'suniversal
vision.Marxismissimultaneouslyavictoryoftheexternal,activemanovertheinner,passivemanandavictory
ofreasonoverbelief:itstressesman'scapacitytoshapehismaterialdestinyfiniteanddefinedasman'sonly
realityanditpostulatesthe absolutecapacityofmantotrulyunderstandhisrealityasapointofdeparturefor
hisactiveendeavorstoshapeit.Toagreaterextentthananypreviousmodeofpoliticalthinking,Marxismputsa
premiumonthesystematicandrigorousexaminationofmaterialrealityandonguidestoactionderivedfrom
thatexamination.
Thoughitmaybearguedthatthisintellectuallyrigorousmethodwaseventuallysubvertedbyitsstrong
componentofdogmaticbelief,Marxismdidexpandpopularselfawarenessbyawakeningthemassestoan
intensepreoccupationwithsocialequalityandbyprovidingthemwithbothahistoricalandamoraljustification
forinsistinguponit.Morethanthat,Marxismrepresentedinitstimethemostadvancedandsystematicmethod
foranalyzingthedynamicofsocialdevelopment,forcategorizingit,andforextrapolatingfromitcertain
principlesconcerningsocialbehavior.Itdidsoinamannerthatlentitselftotranslationintohighlysimplified
principlesthatprovidedeventherelativelyuneducatedwiththefeelingthattheirunderstandingofphenomena
hadbeenbasicallysharpenedandthattheirresentments,frustrations,andvagueaspirationscouldbe channelled
intohistoricallymeaningfulactions.
Becauseofthis,Marxismappealedsimultaneouslytoman'sethical,rational,andPrometheaninstincts.
Theethicalcomponent,sustainedbyman'semotions,drewontheJudaeoChristianheritagetherational
respondedtoman'sincreaseddesiretocomprehendthedynamicofhismaterialenvironmentmoresystem
aticallyandthePrometheanstoodfor"man'sfaithinhispowers,forthenotionthathistoryismadebythe
peopleandthatnothingcanhemintheiradvancetoperfection."8
Inthissense,Marxismhasservedasamechanismofhuman "progress,"evenifitspracticehasoften
fallenshortofitsideals.TeilharddeChardinnotesatonepointthat"monstrousasitis,isnotmodern
totalitarianismreallythedistortionofsomethingmagnificent,andthusquiteneartothetruth?"9Elsewherehe
observesthat"allthepeoples,toremainhumanortobecomemoreso,areinexorablyledtoformulatethehopes
andproblemsofthemodernearthintheverysametermsinwhichtheWesthasformulatedthem."10 Whathe
doesnotsayisthatformanyoutsidetheimmediateinfluenceoftheWestanditsChristiantraditionithasbeen
Marxismthathasservedtostirthemindandtomobilizehumanenergiespurposefully.
Moreover,Marxismhasdecisivelycontributedtothepoliticalinstitutionalizationandsystematization
ofthedeliberateefforttodefinethenatureofoureraandofman'srelationshiptohistoryatanygivenstagein
thathistory.Emphasisonthisquestionhascompelledreflectionontherelativeimportanceofdifferentforcesof
change,theweighingofalternativehistoricalinterpretations,andatleasttheattemptattentativejudgment.
Moreover,ithasprovokedaseriesofsubordinatequestions,allhelpfulinforcingrecognitionofchangeandin
compellingadjustmentstoit:Withinthegivenera,whatparticularphasescanbedeciphered?Isanygivenphase
oneofinternationaltension,ofgreaterstability,ofshiftinglocaleofconflict,ofanewsetofalliances?Whoare
ourpresentprincipalfoessubjectivelyandobjectively?Who arenowourallies?Whatarethesourcesof
principal,secondary,andtertiarydangers?
Periodic,formal,purposefulexaminationofsuchquestionscompelssystematicprobingofthe
internationalscene.Thisisnottosaythatcontemporarycommunistshavealwaysbeensuccessfulinaccurately
perceivingthemeaningofnewinternationalphenomena.Indeed,theirconvictionthattheiranalyticaltools
provideafaultlessguidetotheinnermeaningofthingshasoftenledthemastray.Unwillingtoacceptthenotion
oftherelativityandelusivenessoftruth,theyhaveelevatedtheirinescapablypartialinsightsintoabsolute
dogmasandreducedcomplexissuestogrossoversimplifications.
Nonetheless,todefinecommunismtheinstitutionalizedexpressionofMarxismprimarilyas"a
diseaseofthetransitionfromtraditionaltomodernstatus,"11 ortoassertthat"Marxismis,infact,nothingbutan
epiphenomenonoftechnicaldevelopment,aphaseofthepainfulmarriageofmanandtechnique,"12istoneglect
what willprobablyremainthemajorcontributionofMarxism:itsrevolutionaryandbroadeninginfluence,which
openedman'smindtopreviouslyignoredperspectivesanddramatizedpreviouslyneglectedconcerns.Tosayas
muchisnottoignorethesubsequentlyenslavingeffectofinstitutionalizedMarxismespeciallywhenin
poweroritsanalyticalinabilitytocopewiththeproblemsoftheadvancedtwentiethcenturyworlditisto
assertthatinthegradualevolutionofman'suniversalvisionMarxismrepresents asimportantandprogressivea
stageastheappearanceofnationalismandofthegreatreligions.
Inallthreecasesreligion,nationalism,andMarxismthebreakthroughhadmanyantecedentsand
didnotsuddenlycomeaboutastheresultofanentirelyautonomousactofcreativegenius.Marxcapitalizedon
theintellectualachievementsofhisimmediatepredecessors,forsomeofwhomsocialismhadastrongreligious
basis.* Similarly,nationalismandthegreatreligionswerethearticulatesynthesesofmoods,ofattitudes,andofa

*
PierreLeroux(17971871)wasamongthefirsttoanalyzetheterm"socialism"conceptuallyandtouseitinhiswritings.Hesawin
socialismthefulfillmentofreligiousimperatives.

34
certainsocialreceptivitythathadmaturedoveraverylongperiodoftime.Also,inallthreecasesthe
breakthroughinperceptionwasfollowedbyperversioninpractice:religiouswarsandtheInquisition, national
hatredsexpressedinunprecedentedmassslaughterbrutalterror,purges,andtotalitariansubjugationofthemind
aswellasthebodyinthenameofa"humanist"ideology.
Nevertheless,inallthreecasestheintellectualhorizonsofman,oncewidened,couldnotagainbe
narrowed.EqualitybeforeauniversalGodandtheemphasisonindividualconscience,equalitybeforethelaw
andacommitmenttoasocialentitylargerthantheimmediateone,socialequalityandaconcernforanalytically
dissectingthedynamicthrustofhistoryallhavecumulativelyhelpedtoferineandenlargeman'spoliticaland
socialconsciousness.GiventhedominantroleoftheactivistWestinshapingtheoutlookofourtimes,now,in
thesecondhalfofthetwentiethcentury,almosteveryoneoftenwithoutknowingitistosomeextenta
Christian,anationalist,andaMarxist.

2.TurbulencewithinInstitutionalizedBeliefs
Itisincreasinglydifficultforinstitutionstoassertdogmaticallythepristinepurityofthedoctrinesthat
theyclaimtoembody.ThisisastrueoftheChristianchurchesasofcommunistpartiesinsomeofthemore
advancedcountriesthisdifficultyalsoinvolvesespeciallyonthepartoftheyoungacrisisinallegiancetothe
proceduresofliberaldemocracy.Todaythe relationshipofideastoinstitutionsisturbulent:institutionsresist
ideaslesttheyleadtochangesthatunderminetheinstitutions,andtheexponentsofideasrebelagainst
institutionsbecauseoftheintellectualconstraintssaidtobeinherentintheirexistence.
Thisdevelopmentispartoftheprogressivesecularizationofourlife.Animportantroleinthisprocess
isplayedbythechangedcharacterofcontemporarycommunications,whichpermitsrapiddisseminationofideas
andimages,andrequires lessrelianceonanorganizedefforttoproselytize.Today,morepeopleareexposedto
impressionsthatarebothmorefluidandmorevolatilethaneverbefore.Thereisnolongerthesameneedto
challengerigidandtraditionaltabooswithalternativeand moreappealingvisions,ortoovercomesocialinertia
withorganizedmobilizationofeffort.Allthisputsinstitutionalizedbeliefsonthedefensive:moreandmoretheir
effortsaredesignedtoretainthepositiveloyaltyoftheiradherentsandtocombatinfluencesthatareinimicalto
structured,formalized,andhighlyinstitutionalizedbeliefs.
Writingalmostacenturyago,Marxobservedthat"uptillnowithasbeenthoughtthatthegrowthofthe
ChristianmythsduringtheRomanEmpirewaspossibleonlybecauseprintingwasnotyetinvented.Preciselythe
contrary.Thedailypressandthetelegraph,whichinamomentspreadinventionsoverthewholeearth,fabricate
moremyths(andthebourgeoiscattlebelieveandenlargeuponthem)inonedaythancouldhaveformerlybeen
doneinacentury."13 Whentothepressandtelegraphisaddedthecontemporaryglobalroleofradioand
television,andtoreligionareaddedcontemporaryideologies,Marx'sobservationsbecomeevenmorepertinent.
Inadditionto developmentsconnectedwiththemeansofdisseminationandthepaceoftechnologically
inducedsocialchange,anotherfactorisatwork.Intheviewofmanyconcernedpeople,especiallyamongthe
youngergeneration,thefusionofreligionsorideologieswithinstitutionshasresultedinbureaucraticrigidityas
wellasdistortioninvalues.Thelongtraditionofinstitutionalizedreligion'sconcentrationontheinnermanhas
promptedsocialpassivityanddefacto indifferencetoconcretehumandilemmas, inspiteofstatedcommitments
tohumanitarianismthemorecontemporaryideologicalpreoccupationwithmobilizingtheexternalmanhas
resultedinpoliticalsystemswhosepracticerefutesthemoralsignificanceoftheiroftenproclaimedhumanitarian
objectives.Ifinthefirstcasethespiritualelevationofmanhaspermittedhissocialdeprivation,inthesecondthe
assertionofman'ssocialprimacyhasprecipitatedhisspiritualdegradation.

InstitutionalMarxism
Moreover,manypeoplefeelthatbothontheexternal,environmentallevelofhumanexistenceandon
theinner,contemplativeone,currentinstitutionalizedbeliefsnolongerprovideadequateresponsesto
contemporaryproblems.DespitetheintellectualadvancethatMarxismrepresentsinourthinking,itdoesnot
sufficeasthesolebasisformeaningfulcomprehensionofourreality.Discoveriesinmodernscience,advances
inthestudyofthehumanpsyche,andevencontemporarysocioeconomicdevelopmentscannolongerbe
satisfactorilyinterpretedbyexclusiverelianceontheMarxistframework.Atthesametime,theneglectofthe
spiritualelementandtherenewedsearchforthetruenatureofinnermanasearchmademoreurgentbecause
ofscientificdevelopmentsconcerningthenatureofthehumanbrainandpersonalityhavefurtherexposedthe
limitationsofMarxismasthesolebasisfordefiningthemeaningofhumanexistence.
ThatlimitationisaccentuatedbythelinkbetweenMarxistideasandinstitutionsintheformof
bureaucraticanddogmaticcommunistparties.PreciselybecauseMarxismasabodyofideasandasasocio
economicmethodhasbecomesomuchapartoftheWesternintellectualheritage,itsintellectualvitalityandpo
liticalsignificancethelatterconceivedofinbroadtermsasasourceofinfluenceforsocialprogramsno
longerdependonanorganizationofzealots.Suchorganizationwasneededtoproselytize,toseizepower,and
toholdit.SpecificRussianconditionsled totheLeninistformulationofthehistoricalutilityofsuchapartyand
oftheabsolutenecessityofsubordinatingtheindividualtoit.
Subsequently,thebureaucraticelementsthatunavoidablygainedcontrolovertheorganizationonceit
hadcometopowernaturallytendedtoputahigherpriorityonthe organizationthanontheideasthatthe

35
organizationwassupposedtoupholdand,presumably,tonourish.Asaresult,theexistenceofcommunist
partieshascometobeaneffectiveimpedimenttothefurtheracceptanceanddevelopmentofMarxistthought.
Theparties'bureaucraticorganization,theirinherentconcernfortheirinstitutionalvestedinterestsevenatthe
expenseoftheMarxistdoctrinethattheyaresaidtoembodytheirfearofintellectualexploration,allhave
cumulativelystimulatedbothoppositionontheoutsideandideologicalsterilityontheinside.
CharacteristicofthissterilityisthestrikingfactthattheSovietcommunistpartyhasnotproduceda
single creativeandinfluentialMarxistthinkerinthefiftyyearssinceitseized powerin1917.(Moreover,its
leadingintellectuallights,thebeginningsofwhosecreativityantedated1917,werephysicallyliquidatedunder
Sovietrule.)Thisisremarkable,consideringthesignificanceofficiallyattachedto"creative"MarxismLeninism
bythefirstcommunistpartyevertohavecometopower.ElsewhereprobingandinfluentialMarxist
philosophersGeorgeLukacs,ErnstBloch,AdamSchaff,orLeszekKolakowskihaveinvariablyeithercome
intosharpconflictwithpartydisciplineorhaveeventuallybeendrivenoutoftheparty.
AslongasMarxismwasanisolatedschoolofthought,thepartycouldserveasaneffectivemechanism
forcarryingittothemassesand,moregenerally,astheselfappointedagentofhistory,thedirectionofwhich
Marxismclaimedtohavecorrectlyidentified.ButonceMarxismhadbecomepartoftheworld'shistoric
mainstream,toinsistonitsseparate,institutionalidentityandexclusivitywastodiminishitsinfluenceandto
stifleitscreativity.Yetthatispreciselywhatthecommunistpartieshavecontinuedtodo,andtheCommunist
Party oftheSovietUnionhasevenextendedthatclaimbyassertingitsrighttopassonthecorrectnessofother
parties'interpretations.
Theresulthasbeenincreasingindifferencetodoctrineamongthegeneralmembershipandincreasing
disaffectionamongthemorecreativeMarxistthinkers.Thisisnottosaythatsocialistideashavebecome
discredited.Onthecontrary,eveninEasternEurope,wherecommunismhashadtocompetewithantiSoviet
nationalism,theadmittedlylimitedandveryfragmentarydataavailableonpublicattitudesindicatethat
socialismbroadlyconceivedofasanattempttocreateamorejustsocietythroughpublicwelfare,massaccess
toeducation,socialservices,publicownershipoftheprincipalmeansofproduction,andsocialegalitarianism
haswidepopularsupport,whereascommunismasaninstitutionalizedbeliefhasnot.* Similarly,intheWest
mostnonsocialistpartiesnowacceptthewelfaresociety asdesirableand normal,thoughnotnecessarily
requiringextensivenationalization.TheCatholicChurchexpressedmuchthesamepointofviewinthe
remarkablepapalencyclical"MateretMagistra"(1961).
Accordingly,"institutionalMarxism,"orcommunism,nolongerconfrontsanintellectualrealitythatis
hostileeithertoitssocialaspirationsoreventosomeoftheunderlyingassumptions.Itnolongerfacesaworld
thatintellectuallyrejectsMarxismthatis,avirginterritorytobeattackedbyzealousmissionariescollectively
organized.Bythesametoken,theonlyhistoricalfunctionoftheclosedLeninisttypepartynowappearstobeto
helpcommunistswhoareinpowertostayinpower.Asaresult,aMarxistthinkercannolongerbeacommunist
ifhewishestoremainathinker.
ThatLeninistlinkbetweenideasandpowerwithalltheinherentrestraintsandpredispositionstoward
dogmatismthatitinvolvesdrivesawayfromcommunismboththe"truthseeking"andthe"efficiencyseeking"
intellectuals.14 Theformergroup typicallythephilosophers,humanists,andwritersreactsagainstthe
excessiveconcernwiththeexternal,activemanitseekstorestoreandrenewconcernwiththeinnermeaningof
lifeandtoconfrontsuchsociopsychicphenomenaasalienationitalsoseesabasicincompatibilitybetweenthe
questforpersonalfreedomthatMarxismissaidtoembodyandMarxism'sinstitutionalizationasasystemof
power.Themostarticulateandmovingcondemnationsofthesystemhaveusuallycomefromthisgroup.Innon
communistcountries,thisgroupalsocontainsmuchofwhathascometobecalledthe"NewLeft,"whichis
intellectuallypreoccupiedwiththe"larger"questionsconcerningtheindividual.CohnBendittheradicalleader
oftheFrenchstudentsin1968characteristicallyreservedhissharpestbarbsfortheFrenchCommunistParty.15
Anotherthreattotheestablishedlinkbetweenideologyandinstitutionisthechallengefromthe
"efficiencyseeking"intellectualstypicallytheeconomists,thescientists,andthenewmanagers.Theyare
primarilyconcernedwithsocioeconomicefficiency,andtheyseeintheelevationofdogmasandinthesub
ordinationofideastoinstitutionswiththeresultingconservativedogmatismamajorimpedimenttopositive

*
DatatothateffectcomefrompollstakenbothwithinagivencountryandamongEasternEuropeantravelerstotheWest.Thus,ina1961
pollconductedinWarsawamonguniversitystudents,2percentidentifiedthemselvesas"definitelyMarxist"inoutlookand16percentas
"onthewhole,yes."Onemayassumethatthesetwocategorieswouldrepresenttheupperlimitofstudentwillingnesstoaccepttheofficial
ideology,althoughmanyamongthe16percentpresumablywouldrebelagainstexcessivepartyorthodoxy27.5percentsaid"definitelyno"
and31percent"onthewhole,no"tothequestion"DoyouconsideryourselfaMarxist?"Atthesametime,however,28.1percentexpressed
thedefinitedesiretoseetheworld"evolvetowardsomeformofsocialism"and44.5percentresponded"onthewhole,yes,"foratotalof
72.6percentexpressingageneralizedpreferenceforsocialism(EastEurope,April1966,p.19).
Thegapbetweenthegeneralizedacceptanceofsocialismandtheselfidentificationas Marxistsisprobablyagoodmeasureofthedistinction
madeabove.
Similarly,inasampleof490PolishvisitorstotheWestin1960(peoplewhoweresubsequently returning toPoland),61percentdefined
communismasabadidea,badlycarriedout,"while14percentfeltthatitwas"agoodidea,badlycarriedout."Theoverwhelmingmajority
however,endorsedpostwarprogramsprovidingforawelfarestate,educationforall,agrarianreform,andnationalizationofheavyindustry
(Some AspectsoftheSocialPsychologicalandPoliticalClimateinPoland,AudienceResearchSurvey,RadioFreeEurope,Munich,1961,
pp.21,24).Asimilarpollconductedamong119Hungariansyielded73percentand8percent,respectively,andagaintherewas
considerableendorsementofthemeasuresadoptedafterWorldWarII(PoliticalAttitudesandExpectationsof119Hungarians, Audience,
pp.38,43).

36
socialchange.Lessconcernedwiththeinnerman,morepreoccupiedwithsatisfyingthedemandsoftheexternal
man,theydonotposeaheadonchallengetothesystem.Butbecausetheirattackisobliqueandbecausethe
attackersthemselvesarebecomingbothmorenumerousandsociallymoreindispensabletoanindustrialsociety
theirchallengeismoredifficulttosuppress.Thetruthseekersconfrontheadoninthecaseofweaker,more
disorganizedsystemstheyhaveoccasionallybeensuccessful,onlytobelatercrushedbytheapplicationof
superiorpower.Theefficiencyseekersdpnotconfronttheyseektoerode.Boththeirsuccessesandtheir
defeatsseeninthecycleofcommunisteconomicreformsandsubsequentretreatsarelessvisible,less
extensive,butperhapsmoretangible.
Atsomepoint,however,eventheefficiencyorientedgroupwillhavetoaddressitselftothemorebasic
questionsconcerningthenatureofmanandthepurposeofsocialexistence.Untilitdoesso,there isalwaysthe
likelihoodthattherulingelitecanatleasttemporarilysucceedincompartmentalizingthescientificcommunity,
inextractingitstalents,andincorruptingitwithasystemofrewardsallthewhilereservingtoitselfthe
definitionofthelargerobjectives.
Consciousofthisdangerandreactingagainstthedogmaticbureaucratictradition,contemporary
Marxistphilosophershavebeeninclinedtoasserttheprimacyofhumanreasonandconscienceovervested
organizationalinterestsandto pointouttheinescapablelimitationsofanyideologicalframeworkonemayapply
toreality.LeszekKolakowski,writingin1956,reflectedawidespreadmoodwhenheattackedthedegraded
notionof'Marxist"asnolongermeaning"apersonwhorecognizesadefinite,meaningfulviewoftheworld,but
apersonofadefiniteintellectualmakeupwhoisdistinguishedbyhisreadinessto recognizetheviews
establishedinstitutionally."16 Rejecting"institutionalMarxism,"Kolakowskiassertedthatpartyinterferencein
scientificpursuitsis,bydefinition,unMarxist,sinceitcontradictstheessenceofMarxism:adeliberate,
scientific,andrationalinquiryaimingattheclosestapproximationofthetruth.Inasimilarvein,Yugoslav
philosophersassociatedwiththeZagrebphilosophicaljournalPraxisamagazinenotedforitsinsistencethat
"Marxism"and"institutionaltruth"arecontradictoryterms ridiculedtheviewsofaSovietphilosopherwho
had"assertedthattheParty'sCentralCommitteeformedthebestsolutionstothemostimportanttheoretical
questions,includingphilosophicalonesinhisopinion,themostimportantphilosophicaltasktodayis'the
amalgamationofallforceswithinthesocialistcamp.'"InresponsetotheSovietviewaYugoslavphilosopher
notedthat"theresolutionspassedbytheCentralCommitteearenophilosophywhatsoever."17
MorefundamentalstillhasbeenthechallengetothenotionthatMarxismasascienceofhistory
providesbothpracticalandethicalguidestothefuture.Themorecriticalrevisionistsandthemoreoutspoken
opponentsofthefusionofMarxistthoughtandaLeninisttypepartyhavechallengedthatpremiseaswell.
Kolakowskiputitparticularlyeloquently:
Aphilosophyofhistoryworthyofconsiderationdescribesonlywhathasexisted,thepast,andnotthe
creativefutureofthehistoricalprocess.Forthisreason,thosewhowishtosubordinatetheirownengagementin
futureprocessestothepronouncementsofthephilosophyofhistoryareonlytouristswhowritetheirnameson
thewallsofdeadcities.Everybodycan,ifhewishes,interprethimselfhistoricallyanddiscoverthedeterminants
towhichhewassubjectinthepast.Buthecannotdosowithrespecttotheselfhehasnotyetbecome.He
cannotdeducehisownfuturedevelopmentfromthepronouncementsofthephilosophyofhistoryinwhichhe
trusts.Toworksuchamiraclewouldmeantobecometheirrevocablepastoneselfthatis,tocrosstheriverof
deathwhich,thepoetsays,nooneeverseestwice.18
EvenrelativelyorthodoxMarxistthinkerssuchasAdamSchaffwhohaveactivelydefendedthe
fusionofideasandinstitutionshaveeventuallyhadtoconfrontthechoicebetweenintellectualsubordinationto
institutionalloyaltyandintellectualintegrityattheexpenseofgoodstandingintheparty.Inbelatedlyoptingfor
thelatter,Schafffreelyconcededthathisownthinkingcouldnolongerbeconfinedtotheconservative,
dogmaticandhenceinstitutionaldefinitionofMarxismandthathenow hadtoacknowledgethathismore
developedunderstandingofthesociologyofMarxismrequiredrelianceonnonMarxistperspectivesand
insights.19 Ameredecadeearlier,Schaffhadstillbeenoneofthemosteffectiveorthodoxcriticsofviews
expoundedbyhisfellowPole,Kolakowski,bytheEastGermanWolfgangHarich,andbytheYugoslav
revisionists.*
IthasbeensaidearlierthatMarxism,disseminatedonthepopularlevelintheformofcommunism,
representedamajoradvanceinman'sabilitytoconceptualizehisrelationshiptohisworld.Itendedanepochin
man'shistorythatmightbecalledthatofhistoricalunconsciousness.Itgavemanasenseofthesocialdynamic
andstimulatedaconsciousconcernwithit.Inspiteofitsmaterialisticdeterminism,itcarriedandthatwasthe
sourceofmuchofitsappealanessentiallyethicalmessage.Itdidsoonthebasisofadoctrinethatassertedthat
itwasderivedfromatotallyrationalmethodofinquiry.Itssuccess,therefore,helpedtostimulateareaction
againsttruthsderivedfromseeminglyirrationalbeliefsandagainstinstitutionsassertingamonopolyonthe
truth.Butthatwhichwasnecessarytohelpterminatetheageofhistoricalunconsciousnessespeciallyona
popularlevelbecamecounterproductiveintheageofscience,rapiddissemination,andacceleratingchange.
Initiallytheideologyofanarrowlybased,weak,andrelativelyisolatedintellectualclassthataspiredto

*
Foranotherexampleamongmany,seetheDecember1968issueofPartelet(theHungarianpartyjournal),containingacommuniqueonthe
expulsionfromtheBudapestPhilosophicalInstituteofseveralHungarianphilosophers,someofwhomhadadvocateda"pluralist"conceptof
Marxism.

37
harnessbothhistoryandthepopularmasses,institutionalizedMarxism hasbecometheofficialdoctrineof
nonintellectualbureaucratswhoaresupportedbymillions(roughlytenpercentoftheadultpopulationinmost
communistcountries)forwhomformalmembershipismoreoftenanexpressionofconservativesocial
orthodoxyorprofessionalopportunismthananideologicaloranintellectualcommitment.Tobuttressan
institutionfromwhichthecreativeintellectualcontentisincreasinglydrained,thepresidingofficialshavemore
andmoretakenrefugeinstatenationalismastheprincipalemotionalbondwiththemasses.Theeffect
paradoxicalandcruelinitshistoricalironyistomakecommunisminpowerincreasinglyreliantonthe
unconsciousandtheemotionalfactorswhichMarxismhadsoughttosupersede.20

OrganizedChristianity
Equallydramatic,thoughdifferentinsubstance,istheproblemconfrontedtodaybyestablished
religions,especiallyChristianity.Unlikecommunism,contemporaryChristianityisnolongerasystemofpower
itstemporalauthorityisnotonlylimitedbutshrinking.Ontheotherhand,itisbothasystemofdoctrinesandan
institution,particularlyinitsCatholicexpression.Thetensionbetweenthebeliefsandtheinstitutionisancient,
oftenpainful,historyfortheChurch,buttheproblemhasbeengivenanewdimensionbytheeffortsinitiatedby
PopesJohnXXIIIandPaulVI,andexpressedbytheSecondEcumenicalCouncil(VaticanII),toreinvigorate
theChurch.21 Theseeffortsaretakingplaceinasettingthatsimultaneouslyinvolvesbothunprecedentedinterest
onthepartofconcernedChristians(notonlyCatholics)andwidespreadevidenceofincreasingindifferenceto
theprescribedreligiousforms.Inotherwords,thereisbothmassiveinvolvementinchange,whichmeansthat
theofficialguardiansoftheinstitutioncannotfullycontrolit,anduncertaintyconcerningthebestwaystomake
theChurchagaintrulyrelevant,withoutdilutingitsspiritualidentity.
ThefundamentaldilemmaconfrontedbytheChurch,inthewordsofUnamuno, isthat"Catholicism
oscillatesbetweenmysticism,whichistheinwardexperienceofthelivingGodinChrist,anintransmittable
experience,thedangerofwhich,however,isthatitabsorbsourownpersonalityinGod,andsodoesnotsaveour
vitallongingbetweenmysticismandtherationalismwhichitfightsagainstitoscillatesbetweenreligionized
scienceandscientificizedreligion."22 Tooptforoneistobedeprivedoftheother.Yetneitherwilldobyitself:
mysticismwouldmeanwithdrawalfromthecontemporaryworldscientismwouldmeanabsorptionbyit.
ThisisanolddilemmafortheChurch,andithasbeenposedandansweredindifferentwaysatdifferent
historicalstages."MateretMagistra"andVaticanIIoccurringinanageshapedbyideologicalconflict,
scientificinnovation,masspopularawakening,politicalpassion,andreligiousquiescencecanbeviewedasan
efforttosatisfythreebroadobjectives:first,toupdatetheChurch'sinstitutionalstructure,sothatitisnotan
impedimenttothevitalityoftheideologicalcomponent(touseatermappliedthroughoutthechapter)andso
thattheinstitutionalizedbeliefsagainbecomemeaningfultoboththeinnerandexternaldimensionsofhuman
lifesecond,bettertofocustheenergiesoftheChurchasawholeonsocialproblemsthatrangefrompersonal
povertyandsocialinjusticetointernationalinequalityand,finally,tohealdoctrinalsplitswithinChristianity
andendtheeraofbigotryandconflictbetweenChristianityandnonChristianreligions.
TheeffortpreciselybecauseitdidmovetheChurchsomewhatinthedesireddirectionsproduced
newstrainsintherelationshipbetweenideasandinstitutions.Institutionalreform,conductedatatimewhen
pressuresfortheological adjustmentshaveincreasinglycomefromtheChurchhierarchyitself(asinthecaseor
communism,thesepressureshavemoreoftencomefromtheperipherythanfromthecenter:whatYugoslavia
hasbeentotheKremlintheNetherlandshasbecometotheVatican!),haspromptedaprofoundcrisisofpapal
authority.PopePaul'sreiterationofthebanonartificialcontraception(in"HumanaeVitae,"1968),whichcame
shortlyaftertheadoptionbyVaticanIIoftheconceptofcollegialityinChurchaffairs,provokedstrongnegative
reactionsfromvariousnationalCouncilsofBishopsthesereactionsinturnpromptedthePontifftowarnagainst
"attitudeswhichdepartedmorethanalittlefromthetraditionaldoctrineoftheChurchandmenacedorderinthe
bosomof theChurchherself."* 23
YettheVaticancouldnotstiflethetheologicalunrest.AlmostechoingthedemandsofMarxist
philosophersforanunfetteredMarxistdialogue,Catholictheologians(notablyinapublicstatementreleasedin
December1968byfortyoftheleadingtheologians)denouncedeffortsbytheVaticanCuriatoresolve
theologicalissuesbyadministrativefiat.Theyassertedtheirrighttocompletefreedomofinquiry,subjecttono
institutionallimitationswhatever.
Theincreasedemphasis onsocialquestionsarticulatedwithcompassionin"MateretMagistra"
presentedadifferentchallenge.Intenseinvolvementintheaffairsoftheworld,andparticularlyinthestruggle
againstsocialinjustice,couldnothelpbutfocustheattentionof theChurchonexternalman,oftenplacingthe
Churchindirectcompetitionwithsocialistorcommunistmovements.Younger,moresociallyinvolved
CatholicssawinthatcompetitionespeciallyinLatinAmericatheonlypossiblesalvationfortheChurch's
missionconservativesfearedthetransformationoftheChurchintomerelyanothertemporalradicalmovement.
Particularlybitterwastheconflictinthoseareaswheretheissuehadimmediaterelevance,suchasnortheast
Brazil.24 There,aselsewhere,conservativesfeltthatwhattheChurchwouldgainintheshortrunwouldcostit
*
ThePopewasnotaloneinfacingthisquandary.TheNewYorkTimesofJanuary16,1969,reported thatDr.EugeneCarsonBlake,general
secretaryoftheWorldCouncilofChurches,discussed"thecrisisofauthority"withPopePaulVI.ItcitedDr.Blakeashavingsaid,"Wefind
ourselvesfacingthesameissuesinboththeWorldCouncilandinthememberchurches."

38
toomuchinthelongrun:socialrelevancewouldbegainedatthecostoflossofidentity.Moregenerally,they
arguedthatsocialsuccessnolessthaneconomicsuccesscouldbedetrimentaltospiritualvalues.Itmaybe
assumedthatfromtheirpointofviewtheexperienceofProtestantismintheUnitedStateswasnotreassuring.*
Ecumenismalsopromptedbothinstitutionalanddoctrinaltension.Puristsfearedthatitwould
acceleratethedilutionofdoctrinalcontentandtransformtheCatholicChurchinthemoreadvancedcountries
intoavagueethicalorganizationengaged,togetherwithothersimilarbodies,insocialgoodworks.Evenmore
perplexingtothepuristswastheappearanceofan"ecumenical"dialoguebetweenChristiansandcommunists,in
whichCatholicstookanactivepart.Thatsuchadialoguecoulddevelop,eventhoughitreceivedrelativelylittle
notice,wasitselfproofoftheextent towhichexclusivisticclaimstoabsolutetruththoughnotformally
abandonedbyeithersidenolongerdominatedeithertheWesternmindoreventhoseinstitutionsthatwere
themselvestheproductsoftheManichaeantradition.
Itwould,however,bemisleadingtoconstruethisdialogue asafundamentalbreakthroughinthe
doctrinalrelationshipbetweenChristianityandMarxism.Theparticipantsinvolvedwereindividualswho,given
theirintellectualconcerns,themselvesreflectedthetensionbetweeninstitutionsandideastheyinherently
resentedinstitutionaleffortstolimitthescopeofphilosophicalinquiry.Bothsidesthusrepresentedthe
intellectualfringesandnottheverycentersofbureaucraticpower.Thecentersthemselvesdisplayedsome
ambivalence,notsomuchaboutthe meetingswhichtheytolerated,inpart,forreasonsofpoliticaltactics but
aboutthedegreetowhichdifferencesbetweenthetwosystemsofthoughtweresaidtohavebeenobscuredby
therespectivespokesmen.
Theselimitationsnotwithstanding,thediscussions,whichdoubtlesswillcontinueandexpand,had
broadsignificance.They indicatedthatitisbecomingincreasinglydifficulttoconfinethesearchforamore
meaningfuluniversalvisionwithininstitutionallydefinedframeworks,sincetheveryexistenceofthein
stitutions,dependsonthemaintenanceoftheirdistinctiveandexclusiveidentity.Thatiswhywhatappearson
thesurfacetobemodestandlimitedhasinfactbeenamajorstepawayfromthetraditionalWesternviewof
suchdialogueas anathema.25
ThereformsandthedebateswithinCatholicismhavealreadyhadtheeffect,inmanyareasofpersonal
life,ofsupplantingtheauthorityoftheinstitutionbytheruleofone'sconscience.(Such,forexample,hasbeen
thereactionofmanybishopsandCatholiclaymentotheissueofbirthcontrol.)Toaspirituallymotivated
person,consciencecanbeastricterteacherthanChurchauthority,butformostpeoplerelianceonconscience
inescapablyhastheeffectofmakingtheChurchincreasinglyirrelevant.Itwasthisdilemmawhichmoreand
moreledPopePaulVItoadoptapositioninspiteofhisearliercommitmenttoinnovation moldedbythe
needforinstitutionaldefense:"Today,asanyonecansee,orthodoxy,thatisthepurityofdoctrine,doesnotseem
tooccupyfirstplaceinthepsychologyofChristians.Howmanythings,howmanytruthsarequestionedandput
uptodoubt?HowmuchlibertyisclaimedasregardstheauthenticheritageofCatholicdoctrine,notonlyin
orderto...betterexplainittothemanofourtime,butattimestosubjectittothatrelativisminwhichprofane
thought...seeksitsnewexpression,ortoadaptit...tocontemporarytasteandthereceivingcapacityofmodern
mentality?"26
ThePopewasrightinnotingthat"orthodoxy...doesnotseemtooccupyfirstplaceinthepsychology

*
"Protestantismhasbecomesoidentifiedwitheconomicsuccess,respectability,andmiddleclassvirtuesthatlargenumbersoftheclergy
andlaityalikeappeartohavelostsightofbasicspiritualgoals"(GerhardLenski,TheReligiousFactor,GardenCity,N.Y.,1963,p.352).

"Withoutus,Communists,IfearthatyourChristianlove,marvellousthoughitis,willcontinuetobeineffectivewithoutyou,Christians,
ourstrugglerisksagainconfinementtoahorizonwithoutstars"(RogerGaraudy,asquotedby heMonde(Hebdomadaire), May511,1966).
ThesewordsofaleadingFrenchCommunistideologue,onceastrongStalinistandamemberofthePolitburo,addressingamixedChristian
MarxistcolloquiumorganizedbytheCatholics,conveytheextenttowhichpreviouslyfrozenviewsaretodayinflux.Ofthemanymeetings
betweenChristiansandMarxists,perhapsthemostsignificanthavebeenthoseorganizedbythePaulusGesellschaft,startinginSalzburgin
1965,followedbymeetingsinHerrenchiemseein1966(wheretheaboveremarkwasmade)andinMarianskeLazne,Czechoslovakia,in
1967.ThethirdmeetingbroughttogethertwohundredandoneChristianandMarxistphilosophers,theologians,andscientistsfromsixteen
EuropeancountriesandtheUnitedStates(butnotfromtheSovietUnion,whichchosetoabstain).'
Thethemeofthethirdmeetingwas"CreativityandFreedominaHumanSociety"(thefirsttwohavingdealtwith"ChristianityandMarxism
Today"and"ChristianHumanenessandMarxistHumanism").Atthismeetingbothsidesexpressedtheviewthatthehumanpersonalitycan
developonlyinasettingoffreedomthatbothChristianityandMarxismmustrevitalizeandopenuptheirinstitutionsandtheirdoctrines
thatthehumanpersonalitycannotbefullyunderstoodontheexistentialandparticularlythemateriallevelthatthestateoughttobeneutral
onethicalandphilosophicalproblemsandthathumanistMarxismmustguaranteepluralismasthepreconditionforhumanfreedomand,
finally,thatbothChristianityandMarxisminvolveacontinuous,neverendingsearchforthemostcompletefulfillmentofhumanfreedom.
(TheaboveisaparaphraseoftheconclusionsreachedbyCharlesAndrasinhisresearchpaperon"ChristiansandMarxistsinMarianske
Lazne,"RFE,July10,1967,whichcontainsthebestanalysisofthismeetingthatIhaveseen.SeealsothevaluablestudybyKevinDevlin,
"TheCatholicCommunist'Dialogue,'"ProblemsofCommunism, MayJune1966,andespeciallytheadditionalmaterialonLatinAmerica
containedintheSpanisheditionandCharlesAndras,"TheChristianMarxistDialogue," EastEurope, March1968.)
Oneoutgrowthofthisdialoguewasaremarkablelittlevolumedealingwiththephilosophicalandsocialproblemsofmodernity,authored
jointlybyaleaderoftheFrenchCommunistPartyandbyamemberoftheSocietyofJesus(RogerGaraudyandQuentinLauer,S.J.,A
ChristianCommunistDialogue, NewYork,1968).

Subsequenttothemeetings,therewerereaffirmationsfrombothsides,e.g.,bytheleadershipoftheFrenchCommunistParty,bythe
FrenchCouncilofBishops,andbyVaticanspokesmen,thatthedialoguecouldnotbeconstruedasinvolvinganychangeinbasicdoctrinal
attitudes.Inasense,thesestatementsconfirmedthepointmadebyoneofthemoreprominentCatholicparticipantsthatatruedialoguewill
notbepossibleuntileachsidesurmountsthetraditionof"monolithism,"whichelevatesboththe"ecclesiasticalsociety"andthepartyinto
thecentersofhistory(FatherGiulioGirardioftheSalesianUniversityofRome,ascitedby LeMonde[Hebdomadaire], May511,1966he
repeatedthesamethemesatMarianskeLazne[Andras,"TheChristianMarxistDialogue,"p.13]).

39
ofChristians."Thisissonotonlyonthelevelofformal,overtcompliancewithcertainestablishedritualsbut
eveninregardtothemorebasicsubstanceofbelief,asisshownbyTable8,constructedfrom1968Galluppolls.
Therelativelylowlevelofregularchurchattendancewhilesignificantinrevealingincreasingdisregardforthe
mostbasicbutalsotheminimalritualisticrequirementwasnotasrevealingasthestrikinggapbetweenthose
whobelieveinGodandthosewhobelieveinlifeafterdeath.TheessenceoftheChristianfaithisthattheformer
guaranteesthelatter.GodwithoutbeliefinlifeafterdeathissomethingentirelydifferentfromtheChristianGod.
Thepolldata,thoughfragmentaryandsuperficial,neverthelesshighlightaproblem.Ontheonehand,
thepollindicatesacrisisofinstitutionalizedbelief.Ontheotherhand,however,itsuggeststhatitwouldbe
misleadingtoconcludethatlowchurchattendanceanddisbeliefinlifeafterdeathmeanpervasiveirreligiosity.
Onthecontrary,itsuggeststhatauthenticirreligiositythatistosay,adeeplyfeltrejectionofarealitybeyond
thefinitedoesnotexist,oratleastnotyet.AbeliefinGod towhichonecannotgivesubstancemaymerelybe
aholdoverfromamoretraditionalsocietyinacontextthatemphasizesimmediatelife,butitcouldalsoreflect
thesearchforahighlypersonal,inner,anddirectrelationshipbetweentheindividualandGod.

PrivatizationofBelief
Infact,thewaningoftheChurchasaninstitutionmaybeasymptomofintensifyingreligiosity.The
ChurchwasanecessaryintermediarybetweenGodandmaninthephaseofman'sspiritualpovertyandhistorical
unawareness.It providedarigidcodeofbehavior,institutionalizedsanctions(whichgraduallydeclinedin
severityasmankindwassocializedonthelevelofpersonal,thoughnotinternational,coexistence),andalinkto
theeternal.AstheChurchfades,forsomethedisintegrationofitscontrolswilldoubtlessmeanlicenseformany
itwillsimplybeamatterofindifferencebutforothersitwillbethebeginningofamuchmoredirect,more
personal,lessritualizedrelationshiptoGod.
Thiscouldmeantheemergence ofhighlypluralisticreligiousresponsesofcults,sects,believers'
groups,eachwithasomewhatdifferentformofexpressingitsfaith,tosaynothingofamuchmorepersonalized
formofworshipevenwithintheCatholicChurch.27 FormostpeopletheorganizedChurchwillcontinueto
providethebasicmooring,butformanytherelationshiptoGodwillbeexpressedmuchmoreindividuallyandin
keepingwiththeirspecificintellectualandpsychologicalneeds.ThepopularityofTeilharddeChardinis,for
example,symptomaticofourage'sfeltneedtocombineecstasywithscience,mysticbeliefwithknowledgeof
thematerialworld.*
ThepresentfermentinChristianityishencepartofthegeneralaversiontowardtheinstitutionalized
beliefthatcharacterizesourtime.Thisaversionreflectsthenatureofourintellectualstyleand

TABLE8
Doyouattend
Doyoubelieve Doyoubelievein churchonce
inGod? lifeafterdeath? perweek?
Yes Yes Yes
UnitedStates 98% 73% 43%
Greece 96 57 28(Athens)
Uruguay 89 42 24
(cities)
Austria 85 38 38
Switzerland 84 5 30
Finland 83 55 5
WestGermany 81 41 27
Netherlands 79 5 42
GreatBritain 77 38
France 73 35 25
Norway 73 54 14
Sweden 60 38 9

*
AFrenchthinkerposestheissuemorestrongly,emphasizingtheinterdependenceofscienceandecstasy:"Wemustconcludethatitisfar
fromaccidentalthatecstaticphenomenahavedevelopedtothegreatestdegreeinthemosttechnicizedsocieties.Anditistobeexpected that
thesephenomenawillcontinuetoincrease.Thisindicatesnothinglessthanthesubjectionofmankind'snewreligiouslifetotechnique.Itwas
formerlybelievedthattechniqueandreligionwereinoppositionandrepresentedtwototallydifferentdispensations.Itwasheldthat,withthe
developmentofapurelymaterialisticsociety,astrugglewasinevitablebetweenthemachineandtheeconomy,ontheoneside,andtheideal
realmofreligion,art,andculture,ontheother.Butwecannolongerholdsuchaboundlesslysimplisticview.Ecstasyissubjecttotheworld
oftechniqueandisitsservant.Technique,onthemostsignificantlevel,integratestheanarchicandantisocialimpulsesofthehumanbeing
intosociety.Theseimpulsestaketheirinfluenceandreceivetheirdiffusionstrictlybyvirtueofthetechnicalmeansbroughtintoplay.The
ecstaticphenomenaofthehumanpsyche,whichwithouttechnicalmeanswouldnaveremainedcompletelywithouteffect,aredeployed
throughouttheworld"(Ellul,p.423).

40
thefragmentedandimpressionisticwayweourselvesbecomeexposedtoreality,aswellastheinstinctive
feelingthatideasareonlyrelevantaslongastheycansuccessfullyrelatetoarealitythatisdynamic.To
institutionalizeanideaistoimpedeitscapacitytoadjusttochange.Thefurtherevolutionoftheideathen
becomesdependentnotonthecapacityofthemindtosensethespeedandthesignificanceofchangebutonthe
rateofchangewithinthebureaucraticorganizationwhichhascometoembodytheidea.Vestedpowerinterests
thusbecomemoreimportantthaneitherethicalorintellectualimperatives.
Thecrisisofinstitutionalizedbeliefsisthelaststageintheprogressivesecularizationoflifethatis,in
thedetachmentofone'ssocialexistencefromaframeworkofbelief.Work,play,andnow,increasingly,
introspectionhavegraduallyseparatedthemselvesfromformalChristianbelief,28 andtheyarebeginningto
detachthemselvesfromMarxismundercommunismaswell.
Itwaseasiertoestablishinstitutionalbeliefinanageofgeographical,culturalandhencealso
psychologicalisolation.Religiousfanaticismcouldthriveinsuchacontext,andreligiouswarshadprofound
moralmeaning.Physicalexhaustion(aftertheThirtyYearsWarandaftertheBattleofViennaof1683)aswell
asgrowingskepticismhavemadereligiouswarsunfashionable.Inouragecommunismhasbeenthelastgreat
absolutistdogma,foritcouldusepowertoassureexclusiveness.ItisnotaccidentalthatisolatedChinahaslately
beenitsmostfanaticproponent orthatideologicalconservatisminthecommuniststatesisusually
accompaniedbyeffortstocutsocietyofffromcontactwiththeexternalworldbyradiojammingandother
devices.* Globalcongestionthoughnotnecessarilyconducivetomutualcomprehensionissimplyinimicalto
institutionsandideologiesrelyingonexclusivisticconviction.
Ideally,inthissettingmanshouldseekcomplete fulfilmentbycombiningspiritualintrospectionwith
themoralimperativeofsocialjustice.HarveyCoxargues inhisthoughtfulbookthat"ifmenratherthan
metaphysicalphantomsbearthemeaningofhistoriclife,thenpurposesotherthanthoseofone'sownclancanbe
appreciatedratherthanrepudiated.Separateworldviewspresenttheoccasionnotformutualdestructionbutfor
fashioningasocietalframeworkwithinwhichsuchvariancecanbeencouragedandnourished.Ideallythe
secularcityissuchasociety.Itprovidesasettinginwhichahodgepodgeofhumanpurposesandprojectscan
thrivebecauseeachrecognizesitselfasprovisionalandrelative.Authenticsecularitydemandsthatnoworld
view,notradition,noideologybeallowedtobecome the officiallyenforcedworldviewbesidewhichnoothers
aretolerated.Thisinturnrequirespluralisticsocialandpoliticalinstitutions."29
Theshapingoftheidealsecularcitydemandsenormoussocialmaturityandresponsibility.Italsocalls
forphilosophicaldepthandasenseofrestraint,sincethetransitionfromthetraditionofdogmatothecondition
ofdiversityisnoteasy.Diversityofbeliefiscertainlytheprerequisiteforfreedom,anditmayevenbethe
concomitantofcreativity(thoughtheMiddleAgesaswellastheOrientargueagainstit).Butcarriedtoits
extremetothepointatwhichdiversityitselfbecomesthesubstanceofbeliefitcreatesitsowndangers.The
healthyreactionagainstinstitutionalizeddoctrinesisnotcompleteunlessitalsoinvolvestheformulationof
alternativeprinciplesofsocialcontractandalternativeviewsof theroleoftheindividual.Fluid,fragile,and
fragmentaryideascannotprovideeitherlastinginsightoranenduringbasisforaction.Popularnotions,shifting
withthewind,mayaccuratelyreflecttheunderlyingpsychologicalandsocialtensionsofourrapidlychanging
reality,butdotheyprovideanenduringbasiseitherforunderstandingitorformasteringit?Intellectualrela
tivismmaynotsufficetomeetthechallengeofsubjectiveactivism,whichisintenselyintolerantbecauseitis
derivedfrompurelypersonalcriteriaforevaluatingreality.Thisproblemnotonlyarisesinsystemsinwhich
formalizedbeliefsplayadecisiverole.ItalsoconfrontstheWesternliberaldemocraticstates.These,too,depend
onasymbiosisofideasandinstitutions,thoughinmuchlessformal,moreimplicitways.Theturbulence
afflictingcommunismandChristianityisvisibleanddirect,withrestlessideasconfrontingunyielding
institutionsthecrisisofallegiancetoliberaldemocracyismuchmoreelusivebut notlessreal.Theeffective
workingofaliberaldemocraticstaterequiresacombinationofsocialdevotiontotheabstractideaofdemocracy
andoflegalisminpracticethatcaneasilybestrainedbyconditionsofstressandcrisis.Ademocraticprocess,
moreover,isdifficulttodramatize,incontrasttosuchnotionsasrevolution,injustice,andfreedom.Instead,it
callsmoreprosaicallyforahighdegreeofproceduralcommitment:thatis,aconcernwiththemeansaswellas
withtheendoftheprocess.Unlessinfusedwithnewmoralcontent,proceduralcommitmentmaynotsufficeina
confrontationwithissuesthatareposedasabsolutesandthataresaidtorequirepassionratherthan
procedurefortheirresolution.

3.HistrionicsasHistoryinTransition
"Werejecttheworld,wearenolongereven'traitors,'sincethiswouldimplyanaffinitywithwhatwe
arebetraying.WearetheVietCongofthought....Thephilosophyoftomorrowwillbeterrorist:nota
philosophyofterrorismbutaterroristphilosophyalliedwithanactivepolicyofterrorism."30 Thesewordsofa
youngSorbonnephilosopherconveythedegreetowhichemotionhascometosubstituteforreasonasaresultof
thereactiontowhatmanyfeelhasbeenthefailureofrationalisminaction.The"rejection"oftheworldisin

*
Nonetheless,theseexternalcontrolsareincreasinglyincapableofmaskingtheevidentlackofcommitmentwithin.Itisrevealingtonote
thatin1968,whentheantiintellectualandantiSemiticpurgeincommunistPolandcompelledsomecommunistintellectuals,untilthat
momentquiteorthodoxintheirloyalty,toleavethecountry,anumberofthemimmediatelymovedtothe"capitalist"UnitedStates,seeking
employmentinvariousinstitutionsspecializinginthestudyofcommunismandviewedintheEastasintrinsicallyanticommunist.

41
essencetherejectionofprevailingmodesofthoughtandthesubstitutionofecstasyandactionintheserviceof
anabstractconceptofrevolution.Yesterday's"escapefromfreedom"hasitsequivalentintoday'sescapefrom
reason.

EscapefromReason
Initsextremeform,thismooddramatizedbythestudentriotsinCalifornia,atColumbiaUniversity,
throughoutFrance,inWestBerlin,inLondon,Rome,Belgrade,Warsaw,Tokyo,andmuchmorelethallyatthe
University,ofMexico(wherescoresofstudentswerekilledinthefallof1968),tosaynothingofthemanyless
publicizedimitationselsewherehaselevatedactionforaction'ssakeintoamoralprinciple."Actionistheonly
realitynotonlyrealitybutmorality aswell"proclaimedAbbieHoffman,theleaderoftheAmericanYippies.31
Hewasechoedbothmorebelligerentlyandmoreecstatically,byhisGermancounterpart,DanielCohnBendit,
theleaderofthe1968Frenchstudentstrikewhodeclaredthat"violenceis happiness."32 Astwoobservers
sympathetictothenewradicalmovementsexplainedit,thecontemporaryrebels"thinkthattheivorytowered
menofideashavecheatedthem,liedtothem,andthatactionandspontaneousexperiencewillshowthemthe
truth."33
Fromthisattitudeisderivedtheviewthatreasonbyitselfissuspect,thatitmustbebuttressedby
emotion,andthatifachoicehastobemade,emotionisabetterguidethanreason.Seeingintheworldaround
thembothhypocrisyandthefailure ofreasonwithreasonintheserviceofevil,whicheithermakesitaslave
ofideologyoremploysitasascientifictooltoimprovewarmakingefficiencyevenmoderatedissenters
condemnedcontemporaryliberalsfortheirlackofpassion.* Incoldreasontheysaw morethanamereabsenceof
moralindignation,acommitmenttothe statusquo, awillingnesstoeffectonlymarginalchange,anda
determinationtoavoidconfrontingthemorebasicmoralissues.
Relianceonpassionandactionhadtheaddedadvantageofnotrequiringaprogrammaticblueprint.In
contrast,theoldideologiesofferedbothacritiqueofthepresentandablueprintforthefuture,thusopening
themselvestocriticismonthelevelofbothpracticality(Istheirutopiaattainable?)andperformance(Whyhasn't
theutopiabeenachieved?).Thepoliticsofecstasydonotrequireaprogramtogenerateaction,andtheir
adherentswerethereforenotgreatlytroubledbythepatronizingcriticismoftheirprogrammaticvacuity
advancedfromthe socialistoldleftandfromthe establishedcommunistparties, Onthecontrary,theyarguethat
itisnotthroughinstitutionalreformsspelledoutinprogramsbutthroughthecreationofacommunityof
emotionthattruefreedomcanbeattained.Bycreatingthatemotionalstate,therebelsofthelate1960shopedto
overcomethesexualoppressionand"onedimensional"qualityofmodernindustrialsociety.HerbertMarcuse's
OneDimensionalMan hasprovidedthemwithanintellectualframeofreference(muchasFrantzFanon'sbooks
exaltingracialviolencehavedonefortherebelsinsomeareasoftheThirdWorld),thoughhisadviceandpro
gramarelimited:"Forthemomenttheconcretealternativeisstillonlythenegation."34
Thecallfor"truefreedom,"however,permitsthesubversionofconventionalfreedom,andhereinlies
oneofthebasiccontradictionsofthemovement.LeopoldLabedzperceptivelynotedthestrikingresemblance
betweentheromanticanarchismofthecontemporarystudentrevolutionandtheviewsofMaxStirner,who
assertedin1845that"apeoplecannotbefreeotherwisethanattheindividual'sexpense."35 Thus,therebellion
againstthe"oppressivefreedom"oftheWestcanentailbothlimitationonthefreedomofthosewho da notshare
theidealsof"true"freedomandrelativeindifferencetothesuppressionoffreedomintheEast.Moreover,the
right to speakorwritefreelycanbedeniedanditsexercisedisruptedbyviolence,sincethatviolenceis
motivatedbyanemotionalcommitmenttofreedomandisdesignedtoassertit.Thedefinitionoffreedomisthus
derivedfromasubjectiveinnerconvictionthatoneisrightandnotfromtheexternalpatternofrelations
guaranteeingchoiceandprotectiontotheindividual,whateverhisviews.
Theintellectualthoughnotthesocialseriousnessofthisphenomenonwasfurtherdilutedbya
certainartificialityonthelevelofpoliticalexpression.Thougheverygenuinerevolutioninescapablypartakesof
thepast,itacquiresitsowndistinctivecharacter,style,andrhetoricpreciselybecauseitisarevolution:asharp
breakwiththepast.TheParisCommunedifferedintheserespectsfromtheFrenchRevolution,andthe

*
InDecember1968,atamajorinternationalconferenceheldatPrincetononthesubjectofAmerica'sfuture,oneoftheaccusationsmadeby
astudentleaderwasthattheestablishedliberalparticipantstendtorelyonreasonattheexpenseofpassion.ThischargepromptedArthur
Schlesingertoremark,"Reasonwithoutpassionissterile,butpassionwithoutreasonishysterical.Ihavealwayssupposedthatreasonand
passionmustbeunitedinanyeffectiveformofpublicaction.Icanimaginenothingworseforoursocietythanarejectionofreasoned
analysisbytheyoung.Ifwesucceedindestroyingthedisciplineofreason,ifwemakepoliticsacompetitioninpassion,acompetitionin
emotion,acompetitioninunreasonandviolence,thecertainoutcomewouldbethedefeatoftheleft."

Thischargehasevenbeenleveledagainstscholarsengagedinstudiesofthefuture,andtheir"futurism"hasbeeninterpretedbycriticsas
animmoralescapefromthe socialdilemmasofthepresent.Ithasledtosomeunconsciouslyhumoroussituations,suchastheoneatthe
abovementionedPrincetonconference,whereamillionaireradicalattacked"futurists"forneglectingtheroleofwealthinAmericansociety.
Sheddinghissartorialeleganceinfavorofthemorerevolutionaryopenneckedshirtuniform,heurgedtheassembledto"chooseequality
andfleegreed."

MaxEastmanspokeformanyoldsocialistswhenheexpressedhimselfas"kindofsorryfortheseyoungrebelstoday....Theyhavean
emotionnotunlikeours....Theywanttomakearevolutionbuttheyhavenoultimatepurpose.Ihaveacertainemotionalsympathyfor
them,buttheyareratherpatheticbecausetheyhavenoplan.Theyjustseekarevolution foritsownsake"(ascitedbyTheNewYorkTimes,
January9,1969).Communistspokesmenexpressedthemselvesmorepungently,condemningtheaspirationsofthenewrebelsas"halfbaked
piepepperedwithsexualismandnarcomania"(TrybunaLudu,May9,1968).

42
CommuneinturnwasnotreproducedbytheBolshevikRevolution.Yetinrecentyearsagreatdealofthe
studentrhetoric, symbolism,andpersonal behaviour hastakentheselfconsciousformofahistrionic
"happening"designedasahistoricalreenactment.
AttimesitwastheFrenchRevolutionthatseemedtoprovidethescenarioespeciallyinFrancebut
moreoftenitwasPetrogradandHavanathatwerebeingreenacted.Thestudentleadersimaginedthemselvesas
historicalfigures,butintheirimitativenesstheyoftenvergedontheabsurd.Duringthe1968crisis atColumbia
University,theleaderofthestudentmilitantsissuedapamphletbearingLenin'stitle,"WhatIstoBeDone?"and
studentsoccupyingoneofthebuildingsproclaimedthemselves"acommune."TheheadquartersoftheWest
Berlinmilitantswere called"Smolny."Revolutionarybeards(instylesrangingfromLenintoCastrotoMarx)
andcombatfatiguesalaGuevarawerealmostmandatorycostumesagainstadecorofeitherredorblackflags.
Eventheviolencewasoftenmoretheatricalthanreal.InTokyoittooktheformofstylizedbattles,in
whicharmoredcombatantsemployedshieldsandspearsinParisatacitagreementbetweenthepoliceandtheir
opponentslimitedweaponstothoseusedintheStoneAge:rocks,cobblestones,andclubs.* OnlyinMexicowas
violencegenuineinthesensethatallavailablemeanswereemployed,asistrueinrealrevolutions.
Todefinethehistoricalsignificanceoftheseevents,itisnecessarytolookbeyondtheviolenceandthe
slogans,beyondthesuperficialsimilarityamongtheoutburststhatsweptsomanycitiesin50manypartsofthe
worldinsoshortatime.Acloseranalysisimmediatelyrevealsanimportantdistinction:someaspectsofthe
manifestationswereclearlypoliticalincharacterandpurposeothersthoughlinkedwiththepolitical,though
sharingwithitacertainuniversalityofaspirations,andthoughprovidingitwithamassemotionalbasewere
muchmoresociopsychologicalinoriginandvaguelymoralandethicalincontent.Linkedtogether, each
tendedtoobscurethespecificcharacteroftheother.

ThePoliticalDimension
Thedistinctionbetweenthetwoisimportanttoanunderstandingofwhatwasinvolvedandofwhatit
portends.Thepoliticalmanifestationsareinsomerespectseasierto dissectandanalyze.Broadlyspeaking,they
fellintotwocategories.IntheWest,andparticularlyintheUnitedStates,thepoliticallymotivatedmilitants
drewonboththeideologicallegacyoftheoldleft'sattackagainstcapitalistsocietyandonthemorerecentsense
ofoutrageaboutthewarinVietnam.Asthe"imperialist"and"capitalist"societyparexcellence,theUnited
Statesprovidedthemajortarget.Thewarservedasacatalystforemotions,asthebasisforinternationalunity
amongthe youngmilitants,asabondbetweentheoldleftistsandthenew,andasalinkbetweenthepolitically
mindedandtheethicallyconcerned.
Thosemotivatedbystrictlypoliticalconcernsappeartohavebeenarelativelysmallminorityofthe
restlessyouth,buttheyprovidedinfluentialleadership.Itwasthepoliticallymindedwhoresuscitatedthe
anarchistcritiqueoforganizedsociety,whorevivedtheTrotskyitesloganofthepermanentrevolutionandit
wastheywhodefinedthemorespecificallypoliticalobjectives(suchasthecallforimmediateUnitedStates
withdrawalfromVietnam).Asthemovementgainedmomentumandbroadeneditsappeal,thepolitical
objectivesperhapsrespondingtothelessclearlydefinedethicalandpsychologicalneedsofthe following
werewidenedandbecamebothvaguerandmoredemanding.Itwasnolongeramatterofendingaparticular
governmentalpolicyorofeffectingaspecificreformtheunderlying"system"capitalistincharacterandhence
fundamentallyirremediablehadtobeundonebeforetruereformscouldbeachieved.Thespecificsremained

*
InallofFrancedespitetheapparenttemporarycollapseofauthorityinMay1968onlyonepersondied,andsomewhataccidentallyat
that.
Butthoughthestyleandtheformatofthestudentrebellionwascontrivedanditsaspirationsalmostdeliberatelyunattainable(oneofthe
mostpopularslogansoftheMay1968outbreakinPariswas"Berealists,demandtheimpossible!"),atleastitsyouthfulnesswasauthentic.
Thesamecannotbesaidofthemiddleagedadmirersofthemilitants,whothoughmostoftenphysicallypassiveoutdidthemselvesin
theireffortstodrinkagainatthefountainofyouthbyvicariousidentificationwithyouth'sexuberance.Verbalexcesswasmostoftenthe
meansusedtoattainthisidentification'.Thus,oneAmericanscholaraccusedthosecriticaloftheabusesperpetratedbysomemilitantsof
literallywaging"awaragainsttheyoung,"whichhecomparedtothewarinVietnamhecalledfora"culturalrevolution"inAmerica!
(RichardPoirier,"TheWaragainsttheYoung,"TheAtlantic, October1968). Casesofmiddleagedexuberancewerenotisolated
phenomena.AsLabedzputit,"Therecanbelittledoubtthatinmanycases lesparentsterribles areworsethan lesenfantsterribles. Someof
themhavemovedfromrevoltagainst'povertyamidstplenty'inthethirtiestoarevoltagainstaffluentsocietyinthesixties,atthetimeas
theythemselvesmovedfrompovertytoaffluence,topracticealienationat50,000dollarsayear.TherevolutionaryEstablishmentofNew
YorkandLondon,thrilledwithrevolutionaryprospects,anddisplayingthecharacteristic SalonMaoismus, contributestotheorgyof
snobberyattendantuponthecurrentUtopianwave.Longbeforethe
BlackPower'spokesmenaskedthestudentsassembledattheLondonSchoolofEconomicstoestablishtheRevolutionarySocialistStudent
Federation,whethertheyknowhowtomakeapetrolbomb,the NewYorkReviewofBooks publishedadiagramofandarecipefora
Molotovcocktailonitscoverpage.Thishasnotprevented,ofcourse,itspoliticalwritersfromdeploring'Americanviolence.'InFrancethe
selfabasementoftheelderly
progressives'reacheditspeakduringtheMayrevolution.'AtthemeetingofJeanPaulSartrewiththestudentsattheSorbonne,MaxPol
Fouchetexciaimedwithpathosappropriatetotheoccasion:'Representingagenerationwhichhasfailed,Iaskyounottofail!'"(Leopold
Labedz,"StudentsandRevolution," Survey [London],July1968,pp.2526).

Thewarthusservedthesamefunctionasthe earliercampaignsagainstnuclearbombsinallowingfortheexpressionofessentiallymoral
concernsbytheadoptionofanantiUnitedStatespoliticalposture.FrankParkin,inhisMiddleClassRadicalism:TheSocialBasesofthe
BritishCampaignforNuclearDisarmament(Manchester,1968),showshowtheBritishCNDmobilizedmiddleclasssupport,drawnfrom
amongthosewithatraditionofmoralconcern,intoacampaignagainst"evil."Thecampaignreliedheavilyonsmallsymbolicgestures,such
aseccentricdress,beards,andotherformsofdistinctivebehavior.

43
obscure,whiletheprogrammaticlanguagerangedfromCohnBendit'sexaltationofactionandrejectionof
communism* toarathersimplisticrepetitionofMarxistcant.
Inthe initialphasesofthecampaignagainsttheVietnamwar,communistsupportjudgingfrom
approvingcommunistpronouncementswasperhapsinvolved,butcommunistapprovalwanedrapidlywhenthe
antiinstitutionalcharacterofthemovementbecameincreasinglyevident.Intheeyesofmanypoliticalmilitants,
thecommunistsystemalsorepresentedbureaucraticconservatism,sinceitsoriginalrevolutionaryidealshad
fossilizedintoinstitutionalbeliefs.Communistendorsementgraduallyshiftedtocriticismandthento
condemnationtheviewsofthemilitantNewLeftwerecharacterizedbyaSovietwriteras"Mamaism,which
incorporatesideasofMarx,MarcuseandMao,acompletelyartificialcombination."36
ThoughthepoliticalmanifestationsinMexicoCity,Madrid,Prague,andWarsawpartookofthesame
reactionagainstinstitutionalizedbeliefandsimilarlycapitalizedonsomeoftheethicalandpsychologicalstrains
inmodernsociety,theyweremuchmorespecificinfocus,lesspredisposedtowardemotion,andmoreinclined
towardaprogrammaticpoliticalapproach.Inallfourcases,thedemonstrators'demandswereconcernedwiththe
looseningofdirectpoliticalrestraints,andtheleadersdidnothavetoconstructanelaborate"onedimensronal
man"thesistoprovethatliberaldemocracycanalsobeoppressiveandthatitstoleranceisinfactamaskedform
ofconstraint.37 Asaresult,atleastonthepoliticallevel,theirdemandstookthefamiliarformoftherejectionof
overtpoliticaldictatorship:abolitionofcensorship,therightoffreeassembly,freedomtotravel,political
democracy,andtheabandonmentofbothideologicalmonopolyandoppressionby secretpolice.Thesimilarity
ofthepoliticallylibertariandemandsofthestudentsinthesefourcitiesisstriking.38
Itshouldalsobenotedthatthestudentswhodemandeddirectpoliticalfreedomactedinthecontextofa
muchmorehostilepoliticalenvironment.ThestudentmilitantsintheUnitedStates,inWesternEurope,andin
Japanliterallybaskedinpublicity:frontpagepictures,televisioninterviews,ecstaticendorsementsbymiddle
agedsupporters,epicsongsimmortalizingtheirdeeds,andbooksinwhichthevariousconfrontationswere
recordedinproseandinphotographs. GiventhepluralisticnatureoftheWesternsocietiesandthecompetitive
characteroftheircommunicationsmedia,youthfulmilitancywasrewardingtotheego andthusalso
infectious.
ThisfactormustbetakenintoaccountbothinanalyzingthedynamicsofeventsintheWestandin
comparingthemwitheventsinlesspluralisticsocieties.39 Therethemassmediaeitherignoredthe
demonstrationsorcondemnedthem.Thestudentleaderswereabusedandarrested.Communicationsbetween
institutionsnottospeakofcitiesrequiredgreatpersonaleffort,sacrifice,andrisk.Youthfulmilitancywas
notrewardedwithsocialacclaimMadridandWarsawrespondedwithprisonsentencesfortheleadersand
universityexpulsionfortheparticipants.
Thepoliticalenvironmentclearly helpedtoshapetheemphasisandthescopeofthestudents'demands.
Inastrictauthoritariancontext,thedemandshadapoliticallylibertariancontent.Inalooser,morepluralistic
environment,thedemandswereeitherfocusedonmoreimmediateuniversityaffairsortookontheformofa
broaderandthusinevitablysomewhatvaguersocialcritique.Accordingly,themorespecificandlibertarian
characterofthedemandsmadebythestudentleadersintheauthoritarianstatesprovidedlittlebasisfora
commonfrontwiththemilitantsoftheWest.Infact,theredoesnotappeartohavebeenmuchactualcontactand
coordination,althoughitwaschargedinPoland'spoliticalyouthtrialsinlate1968thattheBrusselsheadquarters
oftheIVInternational(Trotskyite)providedideologicalassistancetosomePolishactivists.Ifthechargeistrue,
theTrotskyitelinkwasperhapsthesoleconnectionbetweenpoliticalactivistsintheWestandintheEast.
Thetwomovementsappeartohavebeenindependentlyledandtohavebeenmotivatedbyprofoundly
differentpoliticalaspirations.Theslightdirectcontactthattherewasbetweentherespectiveleadersturnedoutto
beabortive.In1968,inaBBCdiscussionofthestudentrebellion,theleaderoftheEnglishmilitantsattackedthe
spokesmanoftheYugoslavstudents,whiletheheadoftheWestBerlinSDS(SozialistischerDeutscherStu
dentenbund)receivedarathercoolreceptionfromPraguestudents,whofound hispoliticalviewsprimitive. 40

*
Becauseofthis:thePravdapropagandistYuriZhukov,withhiscustomarycrudeness,characterizedCohnBenditasa"werewolf"(Pravda,
May30,1968).

Thefollowingmayserveasanexample:"Marxismiscomingmoreandmoretobethecommondenominatorofallstudentmovementsin
NorthAmericaandWesternEurope,evensointhenewleftSDSintheUnitedStates.Ithinkthisisinevitableandisatributetothegrowing
sophisticationandmaturity oftheinternationalstudentnewleft,inasmuchasMarxismisthemostdeveloped,refinedandcoherent
revolutionaryphilosophyorworldviewtodayandonethatasasystematicsocialtheorycorrespondstotheobjectiverealitiesofthecapitalist
era,and inasmuchasittestifiestotherealizationbythestudentmovementsthattheymustalignthemselveswiththeworkingclassinorder
toachievethetypeofsocialtransformationrequisitetobreakthepowerofmonopolycapitalandcreateanew,nonrepressiveandtrulyfree
socialorder"(StanleyGray,"StudentRadicalism:AnAmeri?,Import?"aspeechdeliveredtothe1968CouchichingConference,McGill
News,November1968,p.22).

Thepublicitybestowedonthreefemalecollegemilitants(PeterBabcox,"MeettheWomenoftheRevolution,"TheNewYorkTimes
Magazine,February9,1969)wascharacteristic.SimilardeferencewasnotpaidtogirlsservinginthePeaceCorpsorinthewaronpoverty.
Inthisconnection,itwasrevealingtoobservethesatisfactionwithwhichthemilitantswouldwatchthemselvesontelevisionreplaysor
speciallyprepareddocumentaries.Thepublicitysurroundingthemilitantsbroughtconsiderablesocialpressuretobearonthosewhowere
lessinvolved.

ItisalsonoteworthythatstrictlypoliticallyorientedstudentmovementsinMexico,Spain,orPolandavoidedsuchmanifestationsasthe
"foullanguage"splinterthatdevelopedinCaliforniaintheaftermathofthecrisis,thefascinationwithdrugs,andthedeliberateadoptionof
deviantsocialbehaviorasinthecaseoftheYippies.Tobesure,thesemanifestationswerealsotheproductofpeculiarlyAmerican
conditions,buttheirappearanceasasideeffectofthestudentrebellionwasmadepossiblebythelessfocusedandalsolessoppressed

44
 Nevertheless,importantsimilaritiesbetweentherespectivepoliticalyouthmovementsshouldalsobe
noted.Inbothcasestheywereledbytheablerstudents,whoonthewholecamefrommoresociallyestablished
families.AccordingtoastudyconductedattheUniversity ofCalifornia,thearrestedundergraduateandgraduate
studentstendedtohavemuchbetterthanaveragegradesmanyofthemheldscholarshipsorhadwonawards.41
InPolandofficialcommentmademuchofthefactthattheactivistscamefromtherelatively welltodohomesof
officials,andsome universityprofessorsstressedthefact(inconversationwiththiswriter)thattheirbest
studentswereinvolved.Afterthedemonstrationsweresuppressed,measuresweretakentofavortheadmission
intotheuniversityofworkers'andpeasants'children.EveninRumania,wherestudentunrestwassuppressed
relativelyquickly,officialreactionemphasizedthefactthattheyoung"hooligans"wereinthemainchildrenof
"buildingsitemanagers,universityprofessors,instrumentalistsinthePhilharmonicOrchestra,physicians,
engineers,whitecollarworkers,militiastaffmembers."42
AsintheWest,thepoliticalleadershipfortherestlessyoungwasinmanycasesprovidedbythe
offspringofformerleftactivistshencenotbyrebelsagainsttheoldergenerationbut,rather,byyoungpeople
whosharedtheidealsoftheirparentsbutfeltthatthesehadbeencorruptedinpracticebytherulingcommunist
elite.InPolandthemostoutstandingstudentrebelsincluded thechildrenofhighpartyofficials,whileinthe
UnitedStateschildrenoftheoldleftformedahighpercentageoftheactivistleadersatColumbiaandBerkeley.
InboththeEastandtheWesttherebelleaderscamefromenvironmentsthatwerenotindifferentbut
ideologicallyconcerned.
AnothersimilaritybetweenthestudentmilitantsintheWestandintheEastwasthevaguenessoftheir
longrangeobjectives.Thoughthespecificandimmediategoalsofthestudentsinthemorepoliticallyoppressive
regimesweresomewhatmoreprecise,their"demands"rarelywentbeyondastatementofimmediatecomplaints.
Tobesure,thetransformationofapolicedictatorshipintoamultipartydemocracy,oratleastintosomething
resemblingtheYugoslavmodel,wasa moredefinedobjectivewithexperientialexamplesavailablethanthe
Westernstudents'pleaforaparticipatorydemocracyhowever,themorespecificramificationsofthedesired
socialandpoliticalsystemstendedtobevagueintheEastaswellasintheWest.*
Thoughthismayhavebeenaweaknessfromthestrictlypoliticalpointofviewaswaschargedbythe
criticsofthemilitantsitalsohelpedtoprovideawiderbridgebetweenthepoliticalleadershipandthemore
generallyrestlessyoungergeneration.Itisdoubtfulandthisisespeciallytrueofthemorepluralistic
societieswhetherahighlyspecificpoliticalprogramwouldhaveattractedthewidesupportgeneratedbythe
moreundifferentiatedattackagainsttheEstablishment,vestedinterests,the statusquo, andinstitutionalized
beliefs.Therelianceonemotionratherthanonreason,onfeltaspirationsratherthanonconcreteprograms,
struckamoreresponsivechordinagenerationthatwasthemostdirectlyaffectedbythe paceofcontemporary
changeandthatwastheveryproductofthatchange.

HistoricalDiscontinuity
Inourtimethestudentgenerationrepresentsoneofthemostdynamicvariablesofchange.Thegrowthintheir
numberaswellasthesimultaneousgrowthinthenumberofradios,televisions,telephones(allitemsthataffect
personalrelationships,bothmakingpossibleandencouragingtherapiddisseminationofideas)makefora
subjectivelydynamicmoodthatstandsinsharpcontrasttotherelativelyslowerrateofchange insuchitemsas
income(nationalorpercapita),theswitchfromruraltourbanemployment,thepopulationshifttolargerurban
centers,ortheaveragenumberofpeoplelivinginaroom.Theoverallresultisthecontradiction,alreadynoted
intheprecedingchapter,betweenthepaceofchangeinthestateofmindandinmaterialreality.'(SeeTables6
and7,pp.4243.)
Inthewordsofastudentofmodernization,contemporarymanandthisisespeciallytrueofthe
youngergeneration"islessunderthedominationofhisenvironment...andtothisextentheisfreer,butatthe
sametimeheislesscertainofhispurposeandintimesofgreatunrestheispreparedtosurrenderhisfreedomin
theinterestofpurposefulleadership."43 Inthatfluidsettingthepresentbecomesdifficulttocomprehend,sinceit
isnolongerdefinedbyeitherreligionornationalismorhistoricalideologicalperspectives.44
WritingaboutthewaningoftheMiddleAges,thehistorianJohanHuizingadescribedaworldof
discontinuity,aworldmarkedbythecollapseoftraditionalbeliefs,uncertaintyabouteternalsalvation,
widespreadpessimism,andintenseviolence.Psychologicalrefugewassoughtbymanyinmysticalcults,while
individualbehaviorwasdichotomized,rangingfromemphasisonthesaintlytoindulgenceindepravityand
cruelty.Shiftsfromoneextremetotheotherwerecommon,asmendesperatelysoughtsocialanchoragein
absorbingcommitment.45

characteroftherebellion.
*
OneofthemoreextensivecritiquesoftheexistingPolishsystemwaspreparedbytwoyoungWarsawsociologists,J.KuronandK.
Modzelewski,severalyearspriortothestudentoutbreaksofMarch1968. (Theauthorswerepromptlysenttoprison.)Entitled"OpenLetter
totheParty,"itbecamethesourceofmuchofthetheoreticalinspirationforthepoliticalmindedleadershipofyouth.WrittenfromaMarxist
pointofview,itprovidedascathingcritiqueofthedegenerationofPolishcommunismintoaninstitutionalizedbureaucraticdespotism,with
vestedinterestssuppressingtheegalitarianidealismofsocialism.Whenitcametoofferingaprogram,however,theauthorsconfined
themselvestourginganewrevolutionledbyworkersandintellectualsdeterminedtocreateanewsocialordercharacterizedbyfew
institutions,workers'selfgovernment,andtruesocialegalitarianism.Inlate1968KuronandModzelewskiwereagainsentencedtoprison
forhavingallegedlyinspiredtheMarcheventsincollusionwiththeIVInternational(Trotskyite).

45
 Asimilarcrisis,markedbymuchmoresecularformsofexpression,occurredagainintheWestwhen
nationalismandindustrializationcombinedtochangethecharacterofsociety.Massivenationalandclass
conflicts,aswellasacutesocialandpsychologicaltension,spawnedallencompassingideologiesthatseemedto
providebothauthorityandasenseofdirection.WritingaboutthecataclysmofWorldWarII,CzeslawMilosz,
inTheCaptiveMind, drewperceptiveportraitsofEasternEuropeanintellectualsastheymovedfromonefaithto
anotherinasearchforthepersonalstabilitythattheirenvironmentfailedtoprovide.
Today'smoodhasmanyparallels,butitalsodifferssignificantlyinscopeandcontent.Theindustrial
revolution,tosaynothingof thecultureoftheChristianMiddleAges,wasterritoriallyconfined,andonly
graduallyinthecourseofmorethanacenturyandahalfdiditspillovertoaffectmoreandmoresocieties.46
Itsappearancewasaccompaniedbytheriseofnationalismandothersecularideologies,inwhichbroadconcepts
werereinforcedbytheinstitutionsembodyingthem.Incontrast,thecurrentcrisisofinstitutionalizedbelieftakes
placeinthecontextofthetechnetronicrevolution,arevolutionwhichisnotterritorialbutspatiotemporal.
Thisnewrevolutionalmostsimultaneously affectstheentireglobe,withtheresultthatfadsandnew
formsofbehaviormoverapidlyfromsocietytosociety.Thestudentgenerationlivesinthisnewtechnetronic
age,evenifinsomecasestheirimmediatesocietiesdonot.Unliketheindustrialage,whichrequiredthata
societyundergoextensiveindustrializationbeforethenewproletarianclasscouldbecomesociallysignificant,
thespatiotemporaltechnetronicrevolutiondirectlyreachesthosereceptivetoitbecausetheyhaveaccessto
communicationsandbecausetheirstateofmindisformedbyfactorsoutsidetheirimmediatesocialcontext.The
contemporarystudentmassispreciselysuchagroup,andthatiswhyformsofbehaviorpeculiartoBerkeley
werewithinayearrepeatedelsewhere(WestBerlinstudentsevenworesandalsinthecoldNovemberCentral
Europeanweather!).AmericanstudentactivistsstudyingabroadandhighlycriticalofAmericansocietyhave
tendedtoplayanimportantenergizingroleinthisprocess,andareevidenceoftheextenttowhichAmerica,the
firsttoexperiencethetechnetronicagefully,hasreplacedEuropeastheprincipalsourceofsocialchange.
Theproblemfacingtherebelsofacenturyandahalfagowashowtointegratemeaningfullythe
unprecedented,incomprehensiblechangeswroughtbytheindustrialrevolution.Thesameproblemisposedby
theonsetofthetechnetronicage,withitsapparentthreattohumanvalues,itsimpersonality,itsover
rationalization,itssimultaneousintensificationofpersonalexperience,anditsspatialimmediacytoeveryhuman
suffering anywhereontheglobe.Formanyinthenineteenthcenturyespeciallythosewhoweremostaffected,
eithervicariouslyordirectly,bytheindustrialrevolution(thatis,theintellectualsand theworkers)Marxism
providedtheintegrativeresponse.Todaythesearchisonforsomenewsourceofintellectualmooring,andthe
searchershavebegunbyrejectingestablishedanswers.
Theyoungergenerationistheonemostdirectlyaffectedbythetransitionintothenewage,andit
containsthemostactiveopponentsandincludesthemajorityofthosewhofeelthemselvestobevictimsofthe
technetronicrevolution.Intheirrelianceonemotionandviolence,manyoftheopponentsarereminiscentofthe
LudditesofearlynineteenthcenturyEngland,whoreactedtothemachineagewitbprimitivepassion,destroying
thatwhichtheydidnotunderstandwellenoughtoharness.Oftensupportedbylocalpublicopinion,the
Ludditeswellorganizedandhighlymotivatedshatteredmachinesanddecriedthefrequentlyveryreal
injusticesthatthemachines'appearancehadprecipitated.Thefear,hatred,andincomprehensionofthecomputer
currentamongsomepeopleechoesthedenunciationsofthetextilemachineacenturyandahalfago.*
LiketheLuddites,thecontemporaryopponentsofthetechnologicalandelectronicrevolutionrepresent,
especiallyinthemoreadvancedWesternstates,aresponsetothenewmodesoflife.TheLudditeswere
threatenedbyeconomicobsolescenceandreactedagainstit.Todaythemilitantleadersofthereaction,aswellas
tbeirideologues,frequentlycomefromthosebranchesoflearningwhicharemostsensitivetothethreatofsocial
irrelevance.47 Theirpoliticalactivismisthusonlyareactiontothemorebasicfearthatthetimesareagainst
them,thatanewworldisemergingwithouteithertheirassistanceortheirleadership.
Theattractionthatasegmentoftheyoungergenerationinthemoredevelopedworldnowfeelstoward
poetry,lyricism,andemotionandtheircontemptforreasonandintellectualconceptsmaybeindicativenot
somuchofonetraditionreplacinganotherbutratherofaclashbetweenemotionandnecessity.Ontheonehand
arethefeelingsandattitudespromptedbythebreakdownofinstitutionalizedbeliefsandintensifiedbythenew
modesofcommunicationallstimulatingorcreatinganoverwhelmingdesireforemotionalescape,oratleast
emotionalreleasethrough"concrete"feelingsandassociations.Onthe otherhandisthetediousnecessityto
masterbyintensiveconceptualizationthetechniquesofcomputers,mathematics,systemscontrol,andthelike,
onwhichtheresolutionofmanycontemporarysocialproblemsdepends.

*
InearlyFebruary1969,riotingstudentsinMontrealventedtheirangeratthe"system"bydestroyingwithfireaxesaonemilliondollar
universitycomputer.

The insistenceontotalsolutionsprompts,atthesametime,theircharacteristicunwillingnesstobecomeinvolvedinthemoremundane
processof makingpartialimprovements,ofgraduallyadaptingnewtechniques,ofreallybecominginvolvedintheworld.JohnArdagh,in
TheNewFrenchRevolution (NewYork,1969),notes,thisparadoxinregardtotheFrenchintellectualleft:"Sartreandhisfriendshave
preachedthatliteraturemustbe engageebutinpracticetheyhavealwaysshiedawayfromrealisticpoliticalaction....Sartreandhis
friendshavealwaysdemandedutopiaornothing...SothetechnocratshavestolentheSartrians'clothes"(p.358).
Compare,inthisconnection,NoamChomsky'sattacksonthenewbreedofAmericanintellectualexperts (AmericanPowerandtheNew
Mandarins, NewYork,1968)withtheattacksonPlato,whowasaccusedofthesinof"intellectualizing"reality.Thereareothertantalizing
parallelstoancientAthens.TheauthorofarecentstudyoftheimpactofPlato'sphilosophyonthesocietyofhistimearguesthattheterm
"philosopher"wasrelativelynewandwasusedbyPlatotoidentify"themanwhoispreparedtochallengetheholdoftheconcreteoverour

46
 Thoughthisclashmaybeaprofoundone,itisdoubtfulwhetherthestudentgenerationrepresentsanew
revolutionaryclassofthetwentiethcentury.Atrulyrevolutionaryclassmust masterthecontemporary
techniquesofsocialorganization,ratherthanrejectthem.Thismaybedifficultforthestudent"revolutionary
class"todo,sinceitisnecessarilytransitionalincharacterandsubjecttoconstantchange.Thisdoesnotpreclude
thepossibilitythatstudentmilitantsmightwelloptoutofsocietypermanentlyandbecomeespeciallyafter
hardeningprisonexperienceprofessionalrevolutionariesandthattheinflowofnewstudentsmaykeepalive
thefeelingsofrestlessnessandrebellion.Itisnot,however,certainthattheolderexstudentrevolutionarieswill
beabletomaintaintheirtieswiththenewgenerationofyoungerstudents,fromwhomtheywillbeincreasingly
separatedbyage.Theywillruntheriskofbecomingrebelsoutsideofa"class."Eachstudentgenerationwill
thenhavetocreateitsownleadership,itsownaspirationsandtechniques,beforeittoofadesfromthescene.Itis
perhapsnoaccidentthathistoryis,afterall,acemeteryofrevolutionaryyouthmovements.
Moreover,thecomingwavesofstudentsmayenteranenvironmentgraduallybecomingmorewillingto
toleratetheexistenceofaltogetherdeviantsubculturesandofferingsocialsupporteventothosewhochooseto
divorcethemselvesfromsociety.Manyofthecontemporaryyoungerrebelsespeciallythosewhoarepath
ologicalratherthanpoliticalintheirmotivationmaywellchoosethatpath.Finally,associalchange
contributestothespreadofeducationandknowledge,thedistinctivecharacteristicsofthestudentmaybe
blurredassocietybecomesmoreknowledgeorientedandthestudentmoresociallyinvolved,thegapbetween
studentlifeandsocietywillnarrow.
Nevertheless,thechallengeofthestudentgenerationasawholetorigidhierarchiesand
institutionalizedbeliefsandtothesocialorderoftheindustrialagehashadtheeffectofreopeningthemore
basicquestionsconcerningthepurposesofsocialorganization.Whatshouldbethebalancebetweentheinternal
andtheexternalqualitiesoflife?Whatistherelationshipofpersonallibertytosocialequality?Thesequestions
acquirenewmeaningandcallfornewdefinitionswheneveramajorhistoricalcrisisdominatesour
consciousnessofreality.

4.IdeasandIdealsbeyondIdeology
Thenineteenthcenturycanbesaidtorepresenttheintellectualsupremacyoftheideaofliberty,butthe
twentiethcenturyiswitnessingthetriumphofequality.Formostpeoplelibertyfounditspoliticalembodimentin
thenation,andonlyforrelativelyfewwasitinproceduralguaranteesfortheindividual.Thelastcenturywas,
therefore,primarilythetimeof nationalism,andonlysecondarilyofliberaldemocracy.Thesearchforformsin
whichtheideaofequalitycanbeexpressediscurrentlythestrongestmotivatingimpulsebehindtheactivitiesof
universitystudentsintheWestandofyouthfulcriticsoftheprivilegedcommunistelitesitalsoguidesrelations
betweenblacksandwhitesbothintheUnitedStatesandinAfrica,andbetweenthericherandthepoorer
countries.
Wehavethusreachedthestageinmankind'shistorywherethepassionforequality isauniversal,self
consciousforce.Whatismore,sinceequalityisnotlikelytobeattainedontheobjectiveplane,itmaybesought
moreandmoreonthesubjectiveplane.Withrealequalityimpossible,equalitythroughemotionbecomesa
substitute,withpassionateconflictandhostilitycreatingtheillusionofequality.

TheQuestforEquality
Thepassionforequalityisstrongtodaybecauseforthefirsttimeinhumanhistoryinequalityisno
longerinsulatedbytimeanddistance.Nationalismspread duringacenturyandahalfaspopulationsgradually
becamepoliticizedasasideeffectofliteracyand industrialization,buttherejectionofinequalitywithinandbe
tweennationshasbecomethedominantmoodinamerematterofdecades.Inthisregard,asintherebellionof
theyoungergeneration,theappearanceofglobalcommunicationandofnewlyeducatedmassesisthedecisive
stimulus.
Accordingly,therelationshipbetweenthetechnetronicageandthepassionforequalityifnottheidea
ofequalityitselfisquitecausal.Fromthestandpointofgeneratingsocialandpoliticalmotivation,itisamatter
ofenormousimportthat"thepoorliveasmuchinthenewsoftwaremultibilliondollarserviceenvironmentof
worldinformationasthewealthydo."48 Nationaloppressionandclassoppressionhadtobedirectandpersonal
beforetheycouldgeneratecounterreaction.Todaythesenseofinequalitycanbevicariousandnevertheless
extraordinarilyintense,becauseitcanbemagnifiedbeyondthelevelofpersonalexperience.
Butthoughthecommitmenttotheideaofequalitycurrentlycommandsthegreatestallegiance,the
definitionofequalityremainselusive.Inthecommuniststatesthestruggleforpoliticalequalityinvolvesthe
desiretodoawaywiththerighttoruleasaprivilegeofonlyafewwiththerighttoreadandtotravelfreelyasa
professionalprerogativeofonlythoseatthetopofthepowerelitewiththerighttobuywhatonedesiresasan
advantageenjoyedonlybythoseongovernmentalassignmentsabroadorwithaccesstospecialstoresforhigh

consciousness,andtosubstitutetheabstract"(EricA.Havelock,PrefacetoPlato, Cambridge,Mass.,1963,p.281).Theconcentrationonthe
abstractwasassociatedwiththeappearanceofanewtechniqueofcommunicationthewritten,whichfirstsupplementedandthendisplaced
theantecedentoraltradition(pp.29295).Epicpoetryreliedonnarrative,whichbothstimulatedanddependedonemotionallyshared
experiencethemoreabstractcategorizationofrealitybecamepossiblewiththeintroductionofthealphabetandwriting,anditopenedthe
doorsofhistoryto conceptualization.BothChristianityandMarxismsteppedthroughthesedoors.

47
officials.Nevertheless,communistpartyleaders,whohavelongassumedthattheeliminationofpropertied
classeswouldautomaticallyensuresocialequalityasthebasisforpersonalliberty,findthisdesireforlibertarian
equalitydifficulttocomprehend.
Inthenewanddevelopingstates,thedifficultyindefiningequalityiscompoundedbythefactthatin
mostcasescomplaintsresultnotonlyfromimmediatesocialinequitiesbutfrom anacutesenseofdeprivation
visavisthedevelopedworld.Thesmallsizeofmanyofthenewstatesfurtherintensifiestheirfeelingofim
potenceandcomplicatesthetaskofredress.* Theireconomic dependenceonunstablecommoditymarketsand
foreigncapitalmeansthattheirlibertyishighlyrelativeandtenuous.Theresultisaconditioninwhichliberty
seemsthreatenedbytheabsenceofinternationalequality.
Itisthedesireforequalitythathasmademostoftheleadersofthenewstatesembracesocialism.They
seeinsocialismavehicleforensuringtheobjectiveswhichmostofthemshare:thefloweringoftheirnations'
owndistinctivecultures,nationaleconomicdevelopment,andthegradualerosionofinternalandexternal
inequality.TheirsocialismsharestheMarxistanalysisofcapitalismandtheLeninistdescriptionofimperialism,
thoughtheleaderstendtostressthattheireconomicapproachavoidstheerrorsnotonlyofcapitalismbutof
communismaswell.49 Indeed,someleadershaveclaimedthattheirsocialismlessdogmaticandenrichedby
indigenoustraditionswouldprovidetheworldwithamorehumanealternativethaneitherthedoctrinaire
materialismofcommunismorthesocialindifferenceofthecorporateWest.50 Writingjustbeforetheattainment
ofindependenceinKenya,TomMboya,indiscussingtheAfricanconceptofsocialism,declaredthateventually
Africa"willshowtherestoftheworldwhatfreedomreallymeans."51
Theseviews,however,remainessentiallyunstructured andunsystematized.Thoughtheyhavebeen
describedbysomescholarsasanideology,theytendtolackthesystematic,coherent,integrated,and
intellectuallysustainedcharacterofeithersocialismorcommunism,andthereisanabsenceofformaldogmas
andinstitutionalembodiment.Thoughtheybacktheirviewsbyundemocraticpoliticalpowerandphrasethemin
aterminologylargelyderivedfromMarxism,andthoughtheyarenecessarilypreoccupiedwithimprovingman's
economiclife,theleadersofthe new nationstendtolaystressonthepreeminenceofnationhoodandofthe
spiritualimportanceofthehumanbeing.Thisisalsotrueofthenewindigenousintellectualsthoseinthesocial
layerimmediatelybelowthepresentThirdWorldleaderswhotendtobeevenmoreradicalintheiroutlook,
moresusceptibletoracistappeals,andhighlyemotionalinbehavior.52 TheirecstaticMarxismisafarcryfrom
eitherthescholasticismofMarxortheorganizationalsinglemindednessofLenin.
Moreover,the experienceofseveralyearsofindependencehashadachillingeffectonthosewho
originallysawinthenewnationsanexpressionofamorehumanevisionandanexampleforothers.Inmanyof
thenewstatestherulingeliteshaverestrictedlibertyonthegroundthatsuchrestrictionisnecessarytofight
inequalitybyeliminatingprivilegeonthehomefrontandbymobilizingnationaleffortstobridgethewidening
gapbetweenthenationandtheoutsideworld.53 Thepassionforequalityhasinsomeplacesbeendebasedintoa
racialnationalismthatfindsitsexpressionintheexpulsionofnonnativetribesmen(ChinesefromIndonesia,
AsiansfromEastAfrica)andmoregenerallyinaxenophobicandevenracialresentmentofthedevelopedwhite
worldastheprincipalexploiter.Thenewpoliticaleliteshaveshownastrongpropensitytowardconspicuous
consumption,atsomeexpensetotheirsocialconsciousness.
Theproblemofequalityposesitselfratherdifferentlyinthemoredevelopedandprosperouscountries.
There,particularlyintheUnitedStates,ithastakentheformofoppositionto"bigness"ininstitutionsandvested
interests.Opponentsof"bigness"arguethatthepoliticalprocessisdeceptivebecausethe"oneman,onevote"
formulamerelyobscurestheunderlyinginequalityofpowerbetweentheindividualand,forexample,the
corporations.Morespecifically,thenotionofequalityratherthanthatoflibertyhasbeenattheheartofthe
civilrightsstruggleintheUnitedStates.Formal"liberty"hasbeengraduallyandpainfullyobtainedbythe
blackswiththepassageofcivilrightslegislation,particularlylegislationguaranteeingtherighttovote.That
"liberty," however,hardlyassurestheblacksequalityinAmerica,andtheblackman'sstruggletodayistoobtain
the"equality"thatthewhitemanalreadypossesses.Definingthat"equality"ispreciselywhatperplexesthe
collegepresidentorthecitymanager,towhomlibertyhastraditionallybeensynonymouswithequality.
Thesocialtensions inthedevelopedworldandthisistrueofsomecommunistcountriesaswellasof
morepluralisticsocietieshighlightthedifficultyofseekingequalitypurelyontheexternalandmateria plane.
Afterseveralcenturiesofsocialactivism whichemphasizedtheexternalmancontemporarymaninthe
advancedindustrialcountriesconfrontsacrisisofselfdefinitionforwhichhefindsnosatisfactoryanswersin
eitherestablishedreligionorideology.Withthegradualfadingofnationalistandideologicalpassions,inner
certitudeandexternalcommitmenthaveyieldedtoinnerambiguityandexternaluncertainty.

SyncreticBelief
WhenMichelFoucaultproclaimed"thedeathofman,"hewasexpressinginalmostNietzscheanterms

*
"Themedianpopulationofallstatesindependentbefore1776istoday22.6million,ofthoseemergingfromthefirstanticolonialrevolution
andthedissolutionofdynasticempires(17761945),5.2million,andofthosethatwontheirindependenceinthelasttwodecades,only3.4
million.Theremaybesomedisagreementontheoptimumsizeofanationstate,butthereislittledoubtthatitisabovethreeorfourmillion.
Theverysizeofthenewlyproclaimedstates,particularlyinAfrica,makesitdifficultforthemtorealizethoseaspirationsofmodernityand
power,ofdignityandprosperity,whichtheirleadersprofess"(DankwartRustow,AWorldofNations,Washington,D.C, 1967,p.247).

48
thepessimisminherentinthereactionagainstPrometheanideologies.* Thatreaction,in

EUROPEAN
Onehundredyearsago
1. Thereisprogress.
2. Socialevolutionislinear.
3. Westerncivilizationis mov ing
continuallytowardgreaterheightsin
culturalandsocialdevelopment.
4. Manisrational.
5. Societyiscomposedofindividuals
who,being rationalorcapableof
ecomingrational, shall boostmankind
tonewlevelsofaccomplishment.
ZEITGEIST
Today
1. Thereisnoprogress.
2. Socialevolutioniscyclical.
3. Westerncivilizationisinaperiodof
disintegrationanddecline.
4. Manisnonrationalorirrational.
5. Societyiscomposedofmasseswho,
beingnonrationalandeasily nfluenced,
shallreducemankindtomediocrity.

turn,reflectsthescientificcomplexityofmodernsociety,whichstimulatesafeelingoffutilityandimpotenceon
thepartoftheindividual.Foucault'sviews,associatedwithaschoolofthoughtcalled"structuralism,"havebeen
characterizedbyacriticastheideologyofcontemporary technocracy,forFoucaultseesmanastheobjectofa
processwhichdepriveshimofanyautonomyandruleshimimpersonally,accordingtoastructuraldynamic.54
Therejectionofconscioushistorythusstrikingattheheartoftheideologicalreligiousapproachthathas
dominatedWesternthinkingisitselfareflectionofthecontemporarycrisisinvalues,assumptions,andbeliefs
andofthecollapseofallintegratedandsimultaneouslypurposivehistoricalinterpretations.
Centuriesago,inthegreatreligions,mandefinedthenormsthatoughttoguidetherelationsamong
men.Now,forthefirsttimeinrecordedhistory,manisbeginningthoughjustbeginningtoliberatehimself
fromtheoppressivestruggletosurviveasaphysicalbeing.Thishaspromptedarenewedconcernwiththemore
elusive,spiritualaspectsofexistence ithasalso createdastateofagitation,inwhichsystematicdialogue
increasinglybreaksdownbecauseofthelackofsharedassumptions.Naturally,thisisespeciallytrueof the
intellectualcommunity,thoughthereactiongraduallycommunicatesitselftothebodypolitic.Asaconsequence,
themajorityofpeopleabidebyproceduralpoliticalorderonlyaslongasthatorderworks,buttheyhavelessand
lessinternalcommitmenttoit.(Thepassive behaviouroftheFrenchpeopleduringtheMay1968collapseof
politicalorderisacaseinpoint.)Tobesure,thereismuchdiscussiontodayoftheneedtoreasserthuman
values,ofthepriorityofmanagainstthetyrannyofpoliticaldespotsordehumanizingtechnocrats,butinour
timeasopposedtothesituationineraswhenreligionorideologywasdominantthemeans,theforms,and
theinnersignificanceofthesegoalsremainextraordinarilyundefined.(TheInternationalPhilosophicalCongress
inViennain1968was,forexample,dominatedbytheviewthatcontemporaryphilosophymustbeinthe
forefrontofthe"struggle,"but how itwastocontributewasneverspecified.)
Itisdoubtful,therefore,whetherthegrowingconcernwiththeabstractandthespiritual,andeventhe
evidencesofnewinterestinreligiosityinotherwords,allmatterssubsumedundertheterm"thequalityof
life"willinthenearfutureleadtotheemergenceofnewformalideologiesorreligions.Scientificcomplexity
andskepticismreinforcedbytheimpressionisticeffectsofincreasedrelianceonaudiovisualcommunication
(television)workagainstthesystematicanddogmaticqualitiesofanideology.Inthissenseitistherefore
righttospeakof"theendofideology."Religionandideologywerepartofanageinwhichrealitywasstill
*
ThispessimismhasbeensummarizedinRobertBailey'sSociologyFacesPessimism(TheHague,1958,pp.11617)intenpropositions,
contrastingtheEuropeanZeitgeistofahundredyearsagowiththatoftoday:
6.Scientifictruthand knowledge 6.Scientifictruthandknowledge
arebeneficialforsociety. maybeharmfulforsociety.
7.Mythandsuperstitionareharm 7.Mythandsuperstitionmaybe
Full beneficial.
8.Asocietyrepresentsaharmony 8.Asocietyiscomposedalwaysof
ofinterests,a communumbo conflictinginterests
num.
9.Societyisruledbytheconsentof9.Societyisruledbytheelite,thepeople.
10.Democracyandthehumanitarian10.Democracyandthehumanitarian
socialvaluesservetoprotectin socialvaluesareunfortunatemis
dividualandcommunityinter takesthatresultintheruleofun
ests.educatedmasses.

StructuralismalsoinvolvesacritiqueofSartre'sexistentialism,which,initsstressonindividualmoralautonomy,wasitselfareactionto
theideologicalemphasisontheindividual'ssubmissiveidentificationwithcollectiveandpurposivehistorymaking.

InthewordsofoneoftheparticipantsintheHarvardUniversityProgramonTechnologyand Science:"Withtheadventoftheaffluent
industrialsocietiessciencetendstoreplaceeconomicproductivityasaprimarysocialgoal.Asscienceisablemoreandmoretosatisfyits
materialneedswithlesshumaneffort,itbecomesmorepreoccupiedwith thespiritualandintellectualneeds.Itmustdevelopnewgoalsand
aspirationsinordertoremainviableasasocialorder....Manytimesinthepastscientistshavebelievedthatallthesignificantquestionshad
beenanswered,andtheonlytaskremainingwastofillinthedetails,toworkoutthefullramificationsoftheconceptualstructurewhose
mainframeworkwascompletelydelineated.Yeteachtimetheexpectationhasprovedtobewrong.Eachnewmajoradvancehasrevealedan
unsuspectednewworld,anewconceptualstructureembeddedintheold,andsubsumingit"(HarveyBrooks,"CanScienceBePlanned?"
HarvardUniversityProgramonTechnologyandScience,1968,pp.1314[italicsadded]).

49
dogmaticallycompressibleintointellectualizedcompartmentsbothwerereinforcedbytheurgentdesireto
translatetheidealintothereal.Whatmoreprobably liesaheadisaturntowardmorepersonal,lessstructured,
moresubjectivelydefinedattemptsatasynthesisofthescientificandthespiritual thoughperhapsnothing
quitesomysticalasTeilharddeChardin'sthinking.Inanycase,thisappearstobe thetrendamong
contemporaryChristianandrevisionistMarxistthinkers.
Thoughitisindividuallyenriching,thereisthedangerthatthisdevelopmentmightworkagainstthe
durabilityofliberaldemocracy.Intellectualconfusionandpoliticaldisagreement,tosaynothingofsimple
insecurity,mightwellstimulateasearchforexternalsourcesofstabilitywhichwouldtaketheformofeither
repressionorthebestowalofconfidenceonadominantpersonality.Moreover,"asocietythatcarrieseclecticism
tothepointwherenotonlythetotalculturebuttheindividualconsciousnessbecomesamerecongeriesof
disassociatedelementswillfinditimpossibletomakeacollectivedecisionastowhatmanshallmakeofman."
55
Aleadercanthenbeasubstitute fortheintegrativetasksofsociety,whichareotherwiseperformedbyeithera
formaloranimplicitlysharedideology.* Intheabsenceofsocialconsensus,society'semotionalandrational
needsmaybefusedmassmediamakethiseasiertoachieveinthe personofanindividualwhoisseenasboth
preservingandmakingthenecessaryinnovationsinthesocialorder.Giventhechoicebetweensocialand
intellectualdisorderandbythisisnotmeantanythingthatevenapproachesarevolutionarysituationand
authoritarianpersonalleadership,itisveryprobablethatevensomepresentconstitutionalandliberaldemocratic
societieswouldoptforthelatter.
Thetemptationtochoosesecurityasanalternativetocomplexitymaygrowintheyearsahead,because
"theendofideology,"farfromdiminishingtheimportanceofideasandidealsinpolitics,isusheringinanagein
whichabstractissuesconcerningthemeaningofpersonalandsociallifeareagainbecomingcentral.Itis
preciselybecauseinstitutionalizedbeliefsnolongerbothconfineanddefinetheframeworkofthedialoguethat
thedialogueisbecomingmoreintenseandfarranging.Theresultisarenewedconflictofideas,butnotof
institutionalizedideologiesrenewedinterestinreligiosity,butnotinorganizedreligions.
Inthisnewandpassionatedialogue,establishedandwidelyusedterminologiesareincreasinglyuseless.
Termssuchascapitalism,democracy,socialism,andcommunismevennationalism arenolongeradequate
toproviderelevantinsights.Inideologicallydominatedsocieties,suchasthecommunistnations,thisinadequacy
expressesitselfmoreandmoreinevenovertattacksontheofficialideologyinsocietieswithlooser,more
implicitvalues,itpromptsasearchforsomeacceptableandrelevantframework.Inbothcasestheaccentison
theneedtocombinethepreviouslydominantemphasisonexternalmanwithrenewedattentiontohisinnerlife.
InbothcasesaswastrueofMarxismintheindustrialagethereisthefelt needforanewintellectual
synthesis.
Itissymptomaticofouragethatdespiteitsintenseturbulenceithasnotproducedarelevantconceptof
revolution:astrategyofactiondesignedtoreplaceoperativeinstitutionsandvalueswithanewsetthatis,botha
methodofchangeandthesubstanceofthatchange.Theindustrialagedidproducesuchaconcept(Marxism),
anditwaslaterappliedtocountriesintheprocessofindustrialization.Thereisnosuchtheoryavailabletothe
postindustrialsocieties,norhastheNewLeftsucceededinprovidingone.Moreover,whereasinthepast
ideologiesofchangegravitatedfromthedevelopedworldtolessdevelopedareas therebystimulating
imitationofthedevelopedworldtodaythedifferencesbetweenthetwoworldsaresopronouncedthatitis
difficulttoconceiveofanewideologicalwaveoriginatingfromthedevelopedworldandrapidlyacquiring
relevanceforunderdevelopednations.
Totalintegrativerevolutionswerepossiblebecauseintegrativeideologiesprovidedaframeworkfor
totalchangeandreconstruction.Theintegrativeideologywasinitselfareflectionofanageinwhichauthority
restedonclearlyestablishedbeliefsandinstitutions.Thecommunistparty,withitsclaimtoinfallibility,wasthus
theepitomeofanageofintegratedgrandvisionsandauthoritarianinstitutions.Rapidscientificchange,the
massiveeducationalexplosion,andtheintensecommunicationsimplosionareallfactorsthatmakeforhighly
volatilebeliefsandreactions andcreateasituationinwhichsubjectivefeelingsaremoreimportantthan
collectivecommitmenttoablueprintforsocialactionandorganization.
Accordingly,forthepresent,boththefragmentationunificationtensionsthatarestimulatedonthe
political,economic,andintellectualplanesbythegapbetweenthetechnologicalandelectronicageandthe
persistenceinaneweraofinstitutionsandsocialformsderivedfromanotheragepointtowardatimeof
turbulenceratherthantowardatimeoffundamentalrevolution.Themoredevelopedworldisfacingacrisisof
itsliberal,democraticconsensusthecommunistworldisfindingitdifficulttoadaptitsideologytheThird
Worldseeksaframeofreferenceinamodifiedformofsocialismthatsubstitutesemotionfororthodoxy.Inthe
pasttheworldlivedinanenvironmentofcompartmentalizeduniformity:agrariansocieties,basicallysimilarin
socioeconomicstructurebutdifferentiatedinreligionsandcultures,wereisolatedfromoneanother today
differentiatedsocioeconomicrealities,existinginanintellectualcontextofcrumblingreligionsandideologies,
overlapperceptually.Thepsychiccertitudeofthepastthusgiveswaytopsychictensionconfidenceof

*
DanielBellhasdescribedthesocialfunctionsofideologyinthefollowingterms:"Withineveryoperativesocietytheremustbesome
creedasetofbeliefsandvalues,traditionsandpurposeswhichlinksboththeinstitutionalnetworksandtheemotionalaffinitiesofthe
membersintosometranscendentalwhole.Andtherehavetobesomemechanismswherebythosevaluescanbenotonly'internalized'by
individuals(throughnorms)butalsomadeexplicitforthesocietyespeciallyonewhichseemsconsciouslytoshapesocialchangeandthis
explicatingtaskisthefunctionofideology"("IdeologyandSovietPolitics,"SlavicReview,December1965,p.595).

50
righteousnessyieldstofeelingsofguiltorresentfulinferiority.*
Itispossiblethatinthepresentphaseofintellectualturmoilthereareforthefirsttimetheseedsofaglobally
relevantperspective.Theassertivelyuniversalistideologiesofthenineteenthcenturywereinfacthighly
parochialintheirorigins,andthustheyquicklymergedwithnationalism.(Thisturnedouttobeparticularlytrue
ofcommunismunderStalin.)Theseeminglyinnerorientedideasandidealsthatdominateinahighlyunstruc
turedmannerthecurrentdialogueareinfactmuchmoreconcernedwiththeuniversalproblemsofmanand
withthereintegrationofthespiritualandthematerial.
Man'svisionofhimselfwasatfirsthighlyprimitiveandfragmentary,reflectingthousandsofsmallcultures.Out
oftheseeventuallyemergedseveralreligionswithuniversalaspirations,thougheachwasstillculturallyand
territoriallyconfined.Theageofsecularismgaverisetoamorepoliticalvision,inwhichnationalism(elevated
intoauniversalprinciple)wascombinedwithlargelyEuropeanderivedideologiesthataspiredtouniversal
applicability.Whetherourphaseisatransitionorthebeginningofamorefundamentaldisintegrationislikelyto
beverymuchinfluencedbywhathappensinthetwomajorsocietiesofourtimetheUnitedStatesandthe
SovietUnionandbywhathappenstothetwomajorcontemporaryvisionsofthemodernworldliberalism
andcommunism.

*
Thus,inthepastwhenChristiansandMoslemshatedoneanothertheydidsoinselfrighteousconfidencetodayThirdWorldcitizensmay
hateAmericansfortheirwealthbutatthesametimedespisetheirownfeltinferiority,whereasAmericansfeelguiltyabouttheirwealthbut
savorafeelingoftechnologicalsuperiority.

51
PARTIII
Communism:TheProblemofRelevance
Marxism,bornofthesocialupheavalproducedbythecombinedeffectsoftheindustrialandnationalist
revolutions,providedauniqueintellectualtoolforunderstandingandharnessingthefundamentalforcesofour
time.Asbothaproductandaresponsetoaparticularlytraumaticphaseofman'shistory,itsuppliedthebest
availableinsightintocontemporaryrealityitinfusedpoliticalactionwithstrongethicalelementsitformedthe
basisforasustainedattackonantiquatedpreindustrialsocialinstitutionsanditraisedthebannerof
internationalisminanageincreasinglydominatedbynationalhatreds.
AsthefirststatetohaveputMarxisttheoryintopractice,theSovietUnioncouldhaveemergedasthe
standardbearerofthiscentury'smostinfluentialsystemofthoughtandasthesocialmodelforresolvingthekey
dilemmasfacingmodernman.YettodaySovietcommunismisaconservativebureaucratizeddoctrine.InChina,
thesceneofthemostextensiveapplicationofMarxistprinciplestoextreme industrialbackwardness,
communismisacuriousmixtureofethnocentricnationalismandideologicalfundamentalisminthemore
advancedWestcommunismisvitalonlytotheextentthatitblursitsideologicalidentitybycollaboratingwith
itserstwhileideologicalrivalsandintheEastitsideologicalmilitancyfeedsonadeliberateidentificationwith
themostfanaticnationalistpassions.Insum,contemporarycommunismhassacrificedMarxism'sPromethean
commitmenttouniversalhumanism.
Thetragedyofcommunismasauniversalperspectiveisthatitcamebothtooearlyandtoolate.Itwas
tooearlytobeasourceoftrueinternationalism,becausemankindwasonlyjustawakeningtonationalself
awarenessandbecausethelimitedtechnologicalmeansofcommunicationavailablewere notyetreadyto
reinforceauniversalperspective.ItcametoolatefortheindustrialWest,becausenationalismandliberal
conceptsofstatereformismpreempteditshumanistappealthroughthenationstate.Itcametooearlyforthe
preindustrialEast,whereitservedastheideologicalalarmclockforthedormantmasses,stimulatinginthem
increasinglyradicalnationalism.
ToolateintheWest,tooearlyintheEast,communismfounditsmomentofopportunityinneitherWest
norEastbutinthehalfwayhouseofRussia.Itsfailuresandsuccesses,aswellasitsspecificcharacter,therefore,
havetobeseeninthecontextofthatpeculiarfiftyyeartiebetweenawouldbeuniversalistdoctrineandahighly
specificEurasiannationalsetting.Tothe presentdayworldthepracticalrealityofcommunismismainlywhat
Russiahasmadeofit.
TomodernmancommunisminChinarepresentsonlyapotentialanddoesnotofferarelevantexample.
ThoughsomeaspectsofChinesecommunismitsallegedpuritanism, itsseeminglypermanentrevolution,its
ideologicalmilitancymayappealtothemoredisaffectedandemotionalWesternintellectuals,asasocial
modelChinaofferslittleguidancetothoseconcernedwiththeproblemsofadvancedindustrialcivilization. Still
strugglingwithitsownbackwardness,sufferingfrompoliticaluncertainties, miredinconflictswithits
immediateneighbors,increasinglySinifyingitsMarxismLeninism,Chinamaybearevolutionarysymbolfor
some,butithardlyoffersablueprintforcopingwiththesocialandpsychologicaldilemmasposedbythepost
industrialage.
Tobesure,Chinamayappearinadifferentlighttosomeofthewouldberevolutionaryelitesintheless
developednations.Forsomeofthem,Chinaprovidesanattractiveexampleofnationaldisciplineandideological
dedication,ofamassivesocialefforttomodernizeinspiteoftechnologicalbackwardness.Butevenonthislevel
theChinesemodelisrelevantonlyasanexampleofwillandpurpose,asaguideto thefuture,notasanexample
ofhowcommunismrespondstotheproblemsofmodernity.TheexperienceoftheSovietUnionprovidesthe
onlyanswertothatcrucialtest.

1.TheStalinistParadox
OnemandominatedalmosttwothirdsofSoviethistory,andhisnameisassociatedwithbothasystem
ofruleandaparticularapproachtoconstructingcommunism.Noexaminationofcommunism'scontemporary
roleintheworld,tosaynothingofwithintheSovietUnion,canaffordtooverlookStalin'sroleandStalin's
legacy.ThatlegacyisrepresentedbytheSovietstate'scurrentinstitutionsandmodesofoperation,andeven
thoughalmosttwodecadeshavepassedsinceStalin'sdeath,anySovietdiscussionofreformstillinevitably
revolvesaroundthequestionofbreakingwithStalinism.
Thisisquiteunderstandable.TheSovietstateandtheSovietsocietyoftodaywerecreatedbyan
unprecedentedsocialrevolutiondeliberatelycarriedoutbythepoliticalelite.Violentandcostly,thatrevolution
shouldnotbeconfusedwiththeBolshevikseizureofpowerin1917,foritoccurredmorethanadecadelater.
Duringthecrucialyearsof19301940,inthecourseofwhichSovietsocietywasreshapedtomirrorthe
ideologicalaspirationsofthepoliticalrulers,thatrevolutionconsumedatleastsixandahalfmillionlives* asthe

*
ThemostdetailedaccountingisinRobertConquest's TheGreatTerror, NewYork,1968.Heconcludesthatapproximatelyonemillion

52
newSovietstatetookshape.ItwasthatrevolutionwhichspawnedSovietRussia'spresentpoliticalelite.Itwas
thatrevolutionwhichissaidtohaveconstructedthefirstsocialistsocietybasedonMarxismandtohavelaidthe
foundationsforitseventualentranceintocommunism.Itisalsothatrevolutionwhichbegsthequestionwhether
thatspecificcharacterwasnecessary toassuretheindustrialdevelopmentassociatedsointegrallywiththe
creationofthenewsociety.

TheNecessityofStalinism
Thequestionofthe"necessity"ofStalinismshouldnotbeconfusedwiththatofits"inevitability."In
retrospect,inevitabilitycanalwaysbemoreeasilydetectedinwhatdidhappenthaninwhat didnot.Stalinism
became"inevitable"becauseMarxistpowerfirsttookrootinaspecificRussianenvironmentformedbyan
autocraticpoliticaltradition,intellectualfrustration,andastrongpropensitytowardmessianism.Asaresult,cer
tainfacetsofMarxismwerereinforcedattheexpenseofothers.ItwasLenin'scontribution,andthemarkofhis
genius,tohavebeenabletoadaptMarxismtohisnativeRussia,andinsodoingtohavecreatedbothMarxist
LeninistideologyandtheBolshevikparty.
Lenin'svictoryoverhisrivalswithintheRussianMarxistmovementand,moreimportant,hisseizureof
poweruponthecollapseoftheoldautocraticstructure,laidthebasisforthesuccessful"deWesternization"of
Marxism,avictoryoforientaldespoticpropensitiesoveroccidentaldemocratictendencies.Hisemphasison
dogmaticbelief,onviolence,onconspiratorialactivity,andonthealmosttotalsubordinationoftheindividualto
theparty (partiinost),aswellashisintoleranceofdissentand hisparanoidsuspiciousness(alltosomeextent
characteristicofMarx'sownbehavior),bothreflectedandextendedthebrutalautocratictraditioninwhichhe
operated.
ItcanthereforebearguedthatStalin'semergenceastopleaderandparticularlythe orientalstyleand
moodofhisdespotism1wasfacilitated,ifnotdictated,byLenin'sconceptofthepartyasanelitistgroup
suspiciousofthe"tradeunionmentality"oftheworkersandhostiletotheinertiaandconservatismofthe
peasants.Intoleranceofoppositionandinsistenceonobediencetothepartyfacilitatedtheemergenceofa
bureaucraticallyskilleddictatorcapableofexploitingthesetraditionstoparalyzewouldbeopponentsandrivals.
Writingfromentirelydifferentperspectives,LeonardSchapiroandIsaacDeutscher,whocertainlydidnotsee
eyetoeyeeitheronLeninismorStalinism,bothconveyedthedegreetowhichLeninismmadeStalinism
possiblebyinhibitingeffectiveoppositionwithinthepartytoStalin'sconsolidationofpower.2 IfLenindidnot
makeStalininevitable,heatleastmadeeffectiveoppositiontohimwithinthepartyimpossible.
Thequestionofthe"necessity"ofStalinismis,however,adifferentone.Itpertainstotheproblemof
whetherStalinistmethodsandtheresultingStalinistsystemwereneededtoeffectthesocialistrevolution
and,particularly,industrialization.EvenifitisassumedthatStalinismasapoliticalsystemwas"inevitable,"
itdoesnotfollowthattheenormoushumansacrificethatStalinextractedfromtheSovietpeoplewasnecessary
tomodernizeandindustrializeRussiaandthenonRussiannationsoftheUSSR.Thatsacrificemayhavebeen
necessarytopreservetheStalinistsystem,* buttoadvancethatpropositionistoshiftthegroundoftheargument
andtomakethecasethattomaintainStalin'spowerStalinistmeanshadtobeused.Thereisnogainsayingthat
argument.
Itdoesnot,however,provideananswertothequestionwhetherStalinistmethodshadtobeusedto
modernizeand industrializeRussiaandthenonRussiannationsoftheSovietUnion.Thequestionisimportant
becausetheentireedificeofSovietlegitimacytheauthorityandthepowerofthepresentSovieteliteis
derivedfromtheclaimthatthepastisessentially oneofgloriousandheroicachievement,onlyslightlymarred
byStalin'soccasionalmisconductvisavissomeofhiscomrades.Despitetheextraordinarilydetailedandgory
accountsofStalin'scrimesmadeavailabletotheentireSovietpublicduringthe TwentysecondCongressofthe
CommunistPartyoftheSovietUnionin1961,thetendencyofthepostKhrushchevSovietleadershasbeento
minimizeStalin'smisdeedsandtostresstheaccomplishmentsofthethirties.Theimplicationisthattheparty
actedcorrectlythroughout,andhencethatitsclaimtopowerisderivedfromtheessentiallyinfallibleleadership
ithasprovidedbothinthepastandinthepresent.
ItisonthiscontentionthatthepresentSovietpoliticalsystembasesitsclaimtomoralityand
universality.ToquestiontheformofthetransformationoftheSovietsocietyistoquestionthelegitimacyofthe
presentrulers,albeitindirectly.Evenmore,itistoquestiontheinternationalrelevanceoftheSovietmodel,and
particularlyitsLeninistStalinistconcentrationofpowerinthe handsofasmallbureaucraticpartyelite.The
eventsinCzechoslovakiain1968,theSovietattacksontheChinese"CulturalRevolution"becauseit
underminedtheprimacyofChinesepartyofficials,andthelongstandingSovietcriticismoftheYugoslav
dilutionofpartysupremacyallshowtheextenttowhichtheSovietelitestillconsidersitspoliticalmodeltobe

personswereactuallyexecutedbetween1936and1938(p.529),thatatleasttwomillionmorediedincampsduringtheseyears(p.532),to
whichonemayalsoaddtheatleastthreeandahalfmillionwhodiedduringthecollectivization(p.533) Myowncalculationsarethatofthe
rulingparty's2.4millionmembers,nolessthan850,000werepurgedduring19371938alone(ThePermanentPurge, Cambridge,Mass.,
1956,pp.98110).Itshouldbenotedthatestimatesmadebyothershavebeenhigher.
*
TheStalinisttheorythatclassstruggleintensifiesasprogresstowardsocialismaccelerateswhichconflictswiththenotionthatclass
struggleisaconsequenceoftheexistenceofhostileclassesbutwhichjustifiesincreasedpoliceterrorwasfunctionallyconvenienttothe
interestsofStalin'spoliciesandpower.

53
ofbroadersignificance.ThislinkbetweendomesticinterestsandforeignaspirationsexplainsSovietsensitivity
tosuggestionsbybothMarxistandnonMarxistscholarsthattheStalinistmodeoftransformingSovietsociety
waswasteful,cruel,andmostimportantneitheroutstandinglysuccessfulnornecessary.
DidStalinhaveanyalternative? AtleastsomeRussians MarxistsaswellasnonMarxistshad
envisagedmeansbywhichRussianindustrializationcouldhavebeenachievedinamannerlessphysicallyand
morallycostlythanthatpursuedbyStalin,thoughonacomparativelyambitiousscale. Evenbeforethe1917
Revolution,Russianscholarsweredrawingupplansforthemodernizationoftheircountry.Perhapsthemost
importantplanwascontainedinthestudyconcludedin1918byProfessorV.Grinevetskii,rectorofthe
MoscowInstituteof Technology,whichoutlinedasystematicprogram,tolastseveraldecades,forthe
developmentofthecountry.Accordingtoanextremelyinformativeanalysisofthisstudy,3 inadditionto
providingfordeliberatestateaction,GrinevetskiiplacedgreateremphasisthanSovietplannersdidonprice
signalsandprofitcriteriaasameansbywhichtoarrive"inmostcasesatthesamepriorities,policies,andeven
specificinvestmentchoicesasthoseselectedbySovietplannersindisregardofthesecriteria."Indeed,thetop
prioritiesadoptedbySovietplannersintheearlyfiveyearplanscloselymatchedthoseenvisagedby
Grinevetskii:electrification,therelocationofindustryandpopulationeastward,hydroelectricdevelopment,
canalconstruction,andsoforth.4 ThoughthestandardSovietclaimhasbeenthatSovietindustrializationwas
derivedfrom"thegranitefoundationsofMarxismLeninism,"thereisabundantevidencethatSovietplanners,
someofthemGrinevetskii'sformercolleagues,reliedheavilyonhiswork,acceptinghistargetsthoughrejecting
hisformulaforamoreflexibledecisionmakingprocessandforgreater(thoughnotexclusive)relianceonprice
signalsandprofitcriteria.
Withinthecommunistparty,therewerealsoalternativeplansforindustrialization,mostnotablythose
comingfromBukharinandthesocalled"RightOpposition."SomewhatlikeGrinevetskii,theyadvocateda
policyinwhichpositiveinducementswouldbeemployedtoencouragethepeasantstoincreasetheirproduction
andtomaketheurbanpopulationsharesomeofthesocialburdensofindustrialization,thetimetableforwhich
wouldbesomewhatextended.Theywereparticularlyopposedtorapidcoercivecollectivizationthemeans
usedbyStalintoextractasurplusfromthepeasantryandinthatoppositiontheywerelatersupportedevenby
Trotsky,whoinitiallyhadbeenastrongopponentofBukharin.By1930,Trotskyhadconcludedthatthe
physicalliquidationofmillionsofkulakswasanimmoral"monstrosity,"whichwasinitiatingaviciouscircleof
compulsionandviolencethatwasboundtoengulfthesocietyasawholeandtodiscreditcommunism.5 Perhaps
evenmoredamagingfromtheSovietpointofviewhavebeenthemorerecentobservationsoftheotherwise
orthodoxandhighlyproSovietPolishcommunistleader,WladyslawGomulka.SpeakingonNovember23,
1961,hesimilarlylabeledcollectivization"asthebeginningoftheprocessofgrowinglawlessness,violationof
socialistlegality,theestablishmentofanatmosphereoffear,andthegrowthundertheseconditionsofthe
personalitycult,thecultofStalin."* ItshouldalsobenotedthatStalinismputanendtoaperiodof
unprecedentedcreativityinRussianarchitecture,poetry,andthesciences.Duringthe1920s,intheimmediate
postrevolutionaryphase,Russiaexudedasenseofawakened,vibrantenergy.Themassiveterrorandthe
ideologicalorthodoxyofStalinismpromptedcautionandconformity.EvenintheideologicalrealmMarxist
thoughtwasreducedtoanintellectuallyregressivecatechism,forwhichStalin's DialecticalandHistorical
Materialism(!938)servedastheallencompassingframeofreference.
AdifferentrangeofissuesisposedbythequestionwhetherSovietdevelopment,thoughmorally and
physicallycostly,attainedgoalsunmatchedbyanyothersociety.This,ofcourse,hasspecialrelevancenotonly
totheinternalhistoricallegitimacyofthepresentsystembutparticularlytoitsstandingasamodelforother
societies.Thisclaim hasbeendisputedbysomeEasternEuropeaneconomichistoriansaswellasbythoseinthe
West.AmongtheWesterners,WaltRostowhasdevelopedperhapsthemostpointed(andcontroversial)
challengetoStalinistachievementsinmodernization.Hearguesthatthecommunists"inheritedaneconomythat
hadtakenoff"inindustrialdevelopmentinthetwodecadespriortoWorldWarI,andthat"Stalinwasthe
architectnotofthemodernizationofabackwardcountry,butofthecompletionofitsmodernization."6
Moreover,he seesstrikingparallelsinthepatternandpaceofbothAmericanandRussianindustrialization,the
formercommencingaroundthe1860sandthelatterinthe1880s.7
*
Whethercollectivizationfacilitatedrapidindustrializationisamatterofdebateamongtheeconomists.Itisindisputable,however,thatits
extraordinarilybrutalcharacterprecipitatedarapiddeclineinagriculturalresourcesthatmighthavecontributedtoinvestment."Thegross
outputofagriculturefellfrom124in1928(1913100)to101in1933,andwasonly109in1936,whilethatofcattlefarmingdeclinedfrom
137in1928to65in!933andthenroseslowlyto96in1936.Throughoutthenineteenthirtiesthegraincropsdidnotexceedthepre1913
levelorweresomewhatbelowit"(Deutscher, TheProphetOutcast, London,1963,p.99).AspecialistinSovietagriculture,inreviewingthe
recentSovietreconsiderationofthatdifficultperiod,reachedtheconclusionthat"withlargergrainandcurrency reservesandtheexistenceof
amoreeffectivesocializedsector,thegovernment'sfreedom tomaneuverwouldhavebeenconsiderablygreater.Theentireedificeofthe
industrializationprogramneednothavecollapsedanditwouldhavebeenpossibletoavoidthecatastrophicdeclineinlivestockherds,the
necessityofdevotinghugeamountsof scarcecapitaltothetaskofmerelyreplacingthelossofdraughtpower,andthetyingupofmuch
scarceadministrativetalentintheapparatusofcontrolandcompulsion.
"WhethertheSovietgovernmentwouldhavebeenabletoremaininpowerwithoutthemasscollectivizationof192930isaproblemin
whichaneconomist qua economistdoesnothavemuchtosay,butheisentitledtothinkthatanonStalinistSovietgovernmentmightwell
havebeenabletodoso"(J.F.Karcz,"ThoughtsontheGrainProblem," SovietStudies,April1967,pp.42930).Thus,althoughthe
marketableshareofagriculturemight(ormightnot)besmallerinanoncollectivizedsetting,itisreasonablysafetoassumethatevena
smallershareofalargertotaloutputwouldmeanalargersupplyinabsoluteterms.

Insuchareasassteel,coal,petroleum,andelectricitytheoverallAmericanratehasbeensomewhathigher,whileinlightindustryand

54
Similarly,CyrilBlack,inhisstudyofRussianmodernization,hascitedcumulativedatashowingthat"inthe
perspectiveoffiftyyears,thecomparativerankingoftheUSSRincompositeeconomicandsocialindicesper
capitahasprobablynotchangedsignificantly.Sofarastheratherlimitedavailableevidencepermitsajudgment,
theUSSRhasnotovertakenorsurpassedanycountryonapercapitabasissince1917withthepossibleexcep
tionofItaly,andthenineteenortwentycountriesthatrankhigherthanRussiatodayinthisregardalsoranked
higherin1900and1919.The percapitagrossnationalproductofItaly,whichisjustbelowthatoftheUSSR
today,wasprobablysomewhathigherfiftyyearsago."8 Black'scomparisonsincludecountriesthat,likethe
SovietUnion,werebadlydevastatedbywarsandhadtoundergoextensiveeconomicrecovery.Otherstudentsof
comparativesocioeconomicdevelopmenthavealsotriedtodeviseaschemeforrankingcountries,andthey
agreethattheSovietUniontodayrankssomewhereinthemiddletwenties.9 Blackisledtotheoverall
conclusionthat"othersocietieshaveachievedsimilarresultsatasubstantiallylowercost,"andthusputsinto
questionamajorSovietpremiseaboutitsownpast.*
Supportforthesegeneralizationshasalsocomefromacomparativestudyofgrowthinsteelproduction
asthekeyaspectoftheindustrializationprocess.ItshouldbenotedthatSovieteconomists,aswellaspolitical
leaders,havefrequentlyreliedonsteelasthemajorindicatorofSovietindustrialgrowth.Theauthorofthis
study,StefanKurowski,writingincommunistPoland,offersextraordinarilydetailedcomparisonsshowingthat
underStalin,Sovietsteelproductiondidnotincreaseatasignificantlyfasterpacethanduringthemorerapid
phaseofthepreWorldWarIRussianindustrialization,andthattheseratesapproximatedthoseattainedbyother
countries,particularlyJapan,duringtheircorrespondingphasesofrapidindustrialization. Moregenerally,
relyingonamoreextensivecomparativeanalysisthatinvolvessomedozencountriesovertheperiod17801970,
Kurowskiarguesthatsociopoliticalsystemshaverelativelylittletodowiththeaccelerationintheproductionof
steelandiron,andthatintheaccelerationofproductionthereisapatternofuniformityduetotechnical
innovation.10 Thisconclusion,quitenaturally,provokedofficialire,11 forittoucheduponthekeyissueinthe
Sovietpast.

ImperialPacification
YetthoughStalinismmayhavebeenaneedlesstragedyforboththeRussianpeopleandcommunismas
anideal,thereistheintellectuallytantalizingpossibilitythatfortheworldatlargeitwas,asweshallsee,a
blessingindisguise.Asthestatepossessingthelargestandrichestlandmass,inhabitedbypliantyetvery
creativepeople,asthecarrierofastrongimperialtradition,asasocietyskilledinwarfareandstatecraft,withor
withoutStalintheUSSRwasdestinedtoemergeinthefrontranksofworldpowers,withonlyanother
continentalpower,theUnitedStates,asitspeer.Itisthushighlyunlikely,givenRussia'straditionsandthe
ambitionsthattheavailabilityofpowerinescapablystimulate,thatpostWorldWarIRussiawouldhavelong
remainedstagnant,miredinamorassofinefficiency.
ThequestionthatthereforearisesiswhatkindofRussiamightotherwisehaveemerged.Ademocratic
Russia,eitherliberalorsocialist,doesnotseemtohavebeenarealalternative.Itwouldhaverequiredan
unprecedentedleapfromautocracytodemocracywithoutaninterveningperiodofdemocraticgestation and
inasettingofenormoussocialdeprivation,dislocation,andconfusion.ItisdifficulttoseehowpostWorldWar

transportationtheAmericanperformancehasbeenspectacularlymoreimpressive.
*
Sovietachievementsinspace,inweaponry,orinthemagnitudeofitsoverallindustrialgrowthhavebeenadmirable.Moreover,theSoviet
Unionhasmadeimpressivestridesineducation,massculture,andsocialservices,andithascreatedasolidandextensivescientificbasefor
thecountry'sfurtherdevelopment.Thus,itrankedfirstamongthedevelopednationsinthenumberofdoctorsperhundredthousand
population,anditprovidedthehighestpercapitaannualsocialsecuritybenefits(StatisticalOfficeoftheEuropeanCommunities,Basic
Statistics, Brussels,1967,pp.131,153).
Atthesametime,itisusefultorecallthatinmanyrespectstheSovietUnionisarelativelyaveragesocietyasfarassocioeconomic
developmentisconcerned.ThepreviouslycitedstudybyBlackprovidesusefulrankingsoftheSovietUnionincomparisonwithotherstates
insuchfieldsaseducation(inthe519agebrackettheSovietUnionrankedthirtyninthamong124countriesforwhichinformationwas
availablein1960),communications(in1960theSovietUnionrankedtwentysixthinnewspaperdistributionpercapitaamong125
countries),inpublichealth(inlifeexpectancytheSovietUnionwasthirteenthamong79countries),andsoon.
Inregardtosuchindicators ofmodernityastheavailabilityofaircommunications,radios,telephones,cars,highways,orcomputers,the
SovietUnionwasagaininthelowerranksofthemoredevelopedcountries.Thus,whencomparedwiththemoredevelopedtwentyone
countries(includingtheEECandEFTAnations,Greece,Turkey,Finland,Spain,theUnitedStates,Canada,andJapan),theSovietUnion
rankedtwentiethinthenumberoftelephones,seventhinthenumberofradioreceivers,andtwentiethinthenumberofpassengercars.
TheSovietlaginthemorecomplexareas,suchascomputers,isequallystriking.Thus,ithasbeenestimatedthatby1968theUnitedStates
hadapproximately50,00070,000computersinuse,ofwhich(accordingtoPaulArmor,"ComputerAspectsofTechnologicalChange,
Automation,andEconomicProgress," TheOutlookforTechnologicalChangeandEmployment, AppendixVol.ItoNationalCommissionon
Technology,AutomationandEconomicProgress,TechnologyandtheAmericanEconomy, Washington,D.C.,1966,pp. 220223)only10
percentwereinuseintheDefenseDepartment,AEC,andNASAthecorrespondingnonmilitarySovietfigurewassomewherebetween
2000and3500,orapproximatelyasmanyaswerethenoperatinginJapanorWestGermany,ortheUnitedKingdom,respectively(seethe
comprehensiveestimatesinRichardV.Burks,TechnologicalInnovationandPoliticalChangeinCommunistEasternEurope, RAND
Memorandum,SantaMonica,Calif.,August1969,pp.89).ForafullerdiscussionofthecurrentproblemsofinnovationintheSovietUnion,
seepp.155159ofthisbook.

Kurowskishowsbyprojectingratesbasedonthosefrom1870thatRussiansteelproductionwouldhavegrownbetween1914and1920to
11milliontons.In1929Sovietsteelproductionhadonlyreachedthe1914level,andby!935afterStalin'sFirstFiveYearPlanandthesix
yearsequivalentto thosethatseparate1914from1920itreached12.6million(StefanKurowski,HistorycznyProcesWzrostu
Gospodarczego, Warsaw,1963,pp.132133.)Moreover,KurowskicomparesSovietandJapanesegrowthratesduringboththe19281940
andthe19501962periodsingreatdetail.Again,hedemonstratesstrikingregularitiesinratesofgrowth(pp.134,138,175).

55
IRussia,tornbynationaldissension,classconflicts,competingideologicalappeals,andsheerphysicalmisery,
couldhave effectivelyinstitutionalizedademocraticsystem,whensuchsystemshavefailedincountries
endowedwithstrongerdemocratictraditionsandfunctioningundercircumstancesmuchmorepropitiousto
democraticgrowth.
GiventhemassivepoliticalawakeningoftheRussianpeoplethathadbeenstimulatedbythe
industrializationoftheprecedingdecades,bythebeginningsofliteracy,andbytheexperiencesofthewar,the
onlyotheralternativeappearstohavebeenanopenlychauvinistandintenselyimperialistdictatorialregime.
Whenlinkedwitheconomicexpansion,similarphasesinthepoliticaldevelopmentofothergreatnations
Germany,Japan,theUnitedStatesresultedinaggressive,dynamicimperialism.Expansivenationalism
providedthebasisforpopularmobilizationandforahighlyassertive,evenaggressive,foreignpolicy.Atthe
veryleast,Russia,inallprobabilityaidedbyforeigninvestments(economicinvestmentinstatesthat
subsequentlybecamepoliticalenemieswascharacteristicofthecapitalistera),* ledbyamodernizing,chauvinist
dictatorship,mighthaveexperiencedaburstofimperialist,nationalistenergythatwouldalsohavemadeita
worldpower,perhapsbothatlowerdomesticcostandinafashionmorethreateningtotheworld.
Thispointdeservessomeelaboration.StalinconsummatedthemarriageofMarxismLeninismand
SovietparticularlyRussiannationalism.TheincreasingstressonGreatRussianstatetraditions,onfrontiers,
onnationalaspirations,onRussia'scivilizingmissionvisavisthenonRussianSovietnations,andthelike,
wenthandinhandwiththephysicaltransformationoftheSovietcommunistpartyfromonedominatedbya
rathermixedlotofcosmopolitanandinternationallyorientedintellectualsofRussian,Jewish,Polish,Baltic,and
CaucasianoriginintoapartydominatedprimarilybyRussian,andtosomeextentUkrainian,peasantsturned
party apparatchiki. Tothesemen,theSovietpoliticalsystemsimultaneouslyrepresentedthesourceoftheirown
socialadvancementandoftheirpoliticalpower.Theirloyaltytothesystemwasnotunlikethatofmanypeasant
priests(usuallytheyoungestsons,forwhomnolandwasleft)totheCatholicChurchintraditionalsocieties:it
wasmoreinstitutionalthanintellectual.Ideologyprovidedtheintegrative,intellectualperspective,butitwasnot
theprincipalsourceofmotivationandcommitmentasithadbeentotheinternationalmindedintelligentsiawho
precededthem.
Accordingly,thenewSovietelitetended tobebothconservativeandnationalist,evenwhenthey
sincerelybelievedthemselvestobetheadvocatesofaninternationalistideology.Theycouldthusactina
manneressentiallydictatedbytheirowninterestsandneverthelessconsiderthemselvestrueinternationalists.To
themStalin'sfamousdictumthatthetestofatrueinternationalistishisloyaltytotheSovietUnionwastheideal
resolutionofthetensionthatdevelopedbetweenSovietnationalismandcommunistinternationalism.Nowonder
thatBrezhnevineffectrevivedthedictumin1968toexplaintheoccupationofCzechoslovakia.
Thecumulativeresultofthissituationhasbeenapatternofmixedmotivationandbehavior,dominated
sinceStalinbystateconsiderationsthatoftencynicallyexploittheethicaluniversalismofMarxism.Butthe
latterhasalsohadtobekeptalive,ifonlybecauseitmobilizedforeignsympathyfortheSovietUnionand
becauseittappedtheidealismofSovietyouth,makingiteasierfortheregimetorecruitadherents.Thoughthe
SovietUniondidexploititsEasternEuropeanvassals,andthoughitsfinancialandtechnicalaidtoChinawas
notpoliticallydisinterested,theSovietpeoplegenuinelybelieve(astheyoccasionallygrumbletovisitors)that
theSovietUnionhasaidedbothEasternEuropeandChinaaspartofitsobligationtocommunistsolidarity.
Moreover,theinternalviolenceemployedbyStalinandthe educationaleffectofthecommunistideologyeven
ifinitiallynotacceptedbythemasseshadarestrainingeffectonunbridlednationalism.AtfirstbothStalinist
terrorandideologicallyinducedsocialchangesperplexedandoftenalienatedthepeople.Theunprecedented
19361938massacreofthetopSovietpolitical,economic,military,andintellectualleadershipinevitably
reducedthevitalityofSovietsociety.Literallyseveralhundredthousandofthemosttalentedandbesttrained
peopleperishedduringthoseyears.Inaddition,thoughtheprincipleofinternationalismwasoftenviolatedin
practice,itdidrestraintheinclinationtowardGreatRussiannationalism,ifonlybyforcingmorecovertbehav
ior.Domestically,thatprinciplehelpedtopreservenonRussiannationalities,despiteStalin'spurgesoftheir
intelligentsia.Internationally,it helpedtoshapeinSovietleadersastateofmindthatworkedagainstthe
incorporationintotheSovietUnionofPoland,Finland,andperhapsevenotherEasternEuropeanstates(atone
pointtheYugoslavsthemselvesvolunteeredformembershipintheSovietUnion,andsomeSlovakcommunists,
includingGustavHusak,proposedthesameforSlovakia).Thisisatemptationthatmoretraditionallynationalist
andPanSlavRussianleadersmighthavefounddifficulttoresist.
Paradoxically,therefore,thoughSovietideologyhassubsequentlybeenreinforcedandperhapseven
increasinglydominatedbythenationalismofthemasses(particularlysinceWorldWarII),thehistorical
functionofStalinistcommunismmayhavebeentorestrainandredefineaphaseinwhichtheRussianpeople
wentthroughanintensenationalist,evenimperialist,awakening.Itforcedthatnewmassnationalismtopayat
leastlipservicetointernationalcooperation,equalityofallpeoples,andtherejectionofracism.Marxismnot

*
ForimpressiveevidenceofWesternparticipationintheearlyphaseofSovieteconomicgrowth,seeAntonyC.Sutton'sWestern
TechnologyandSovietEconomicDevelopment,19171930 (Stanford,Calif.,1968),whicharguesthat"Sovieteconomicdevelopmentfor
19171930wasessentiallydependenton Westerntechnologicalaid"(p.283),andthat"atleast95percentoftheindustrialstructurereceived
thisassistance"(p.348).

56
onlyprovidedRussiawithaglobalrevolutionarydoctrinebutinfuseditwithauniversalperspectivederived
fromethicalconcernsnotunlikethosestimulatedintheWestbythereligiousandliberaltraditions.
Despiteitsmonumentalachievements,Stalinismsappedthehumanandemotionalresourcesofthe
Russians,andapostStalinRussiamaythereforeeventuallyenterintotheworldcommunityasanotherspent,
postimperialpower.Finally,bycreatingaparticularlydespoticmodelofcommunismandbyinsisting thatall
otherCommunistpartiessubmittoit,Stalinnotonlysetinmotiontheprocessoffragmentingcommunismbut
alsovitiatedmuchofcommunism'sappealatatimewhenthesusceptibilityofthemoreadvancedWestthe
areaoriginallyseenbyMarxasripestforthehistoricaltransformationmighthavemadecommunismthetruly
dominantandvitalforceofourtime.

2.TheBureaucratizationofBoredom
TheCommunistPartyoftheSovietUnionhasauniqueachievementtoitscredit:ithassucceededin
transformingthemostimportantrevolutionarydoctrineofourageintodullsocialandpoliticalorthodoxy.That
orthodoxyisrevolutionaryinrhetoricbutconservativeinpractice.Thepoliticalsystem,highlycentralizedbut
arrestedinitsdevelopment,isseenbysomeSovietcitizensasincreasinglyirrelevanttotheneedsofSoviet
society,asfrozeninanideologicalposturethatwasaresponsetoanaltogetherdifferentage.Sovietsociety,in
whichelementsofurbanmodernityarecombinedwithextensive ruralbackwardness,isnolongerundergoing
rapid,revolutionarychangescapableofmobilizingyouthful elan itseems,instead,bentonsimplymatchingthe
higherconsumerstandardsofthecapitalistWest.
Underthosecircumstances,itbecomesideologicallymoreandmoredifficulttojustifythehistorical
legitimacyandthesocialutilityofSovietsociety'scontinuedsubordinationtoapoliticalsystemembodying
increasinglysterilenineteenthcenturydoctrines.Indeed,theultimateironyisthatthe Sovietpoliticalsystem
havingthrustRussiaintothemidindustrialagehasnowbecometheprincipalimpedimenttothecountry's
furtherevolution.ItkeepsRussiainamoldthatisindustrialbourgeoissociallyanddogmaticauthoritarian
politically.FortheUSSRtobecomeatrulymodernsociety,thebasicassumptionsandstructureofthepolitical
formscreatedtopressindustrializationmustbechanged.Amorerelevantvisionoftomorrowthanthatprovided
bytheofficialideologyisalsoneededtocopewiththehighlypersonalaswellasthebroadersocialconcernsof
thetechnetronicage.

TheInnovativeRelationship
AtonepointtheSovietpoliticalsystemwasinarevolutionaryrelationshiptosociety.Consolidatedand
subsequentlysubordinatedto thewillofoneman,thepoliticalsystemimposedaprocessofradical
transformationonsocietybycombiningmodernization(largelythroughintenseindustrializationandmass
education)withideologicallyderived,novelsocialinstitutionsandrelationships.Ineffect,thefunctionofthe
politicalsysteminSovietsocietyparallelswhatMarxdescribedasthecapitalist'sprincipalroleinhistory:
"Fanaticallybentonmakingvalueexpanditself,heruthlesslyforcesthehumanracetoproduceforproduction's
sakehethusforcesthedevelopmentoftheproductiveforcesofsociety,andhecreatesthosematerialconditions
whichalonecanformtherealbasisforahigherformofsociety,asocietyinwhichthefullandfreedevelopment
ofeveryindividualformstherulingprinciple."
Domesticrevolutionarychangefulfilledtheideologicalneedsoftherulingelitewithoutpushingthat
eliteintoforeignrevolutionaryventuresthatmighthavejeopardizeditspower.Thenewrulingelitewas
apprehensive lestprematureideologicalzealproveitsundoingyetitwasalsoideologicallycompulsive.Social
isminonecountryStalin'sfamousanswertoTrotsky'spermanentrevolutionwasabrilliantcoup,foritfused
thededicatedrevolutionaries'genuinelyideologicalaspirationswiththeirnewlyacquiredtasteforoffice.
Socialisminonecountryallowedthenewrulerstoretaintheirideologicalselfrighteousnessandtheirpositions.
Morebasically,thenew"onecountry"conceptdefinedaspecific,innovativeroleforthepolitical
systeminrelationshiptosociety.Thepoliticalsystembecametheprincipalsourceofdynamismforsocial
change,settinggoalsanddefiningpriorities.Oncesocietyhadtakenthedesiredshape,however,andbeganto
mirrorthe officialaspirationsofthepoliticalrulerswhohadinthemeantimebeentransformedinto
bureaucraticofficialsthemomentumforsocialchangestartedtowane.
Inlate1952,Stalinhintedthatinhisviewtherewasstillneedforfurtherideologicallyderivedand
politicallydirectedsocialtransformation.Subsequently,Khrushchevonseveraloccasionsstrovetoinfusethe
relationshipbetweenthepoliticalsystemandsocietywithnewprogrammaticcontent.Atonetimehesuggested
adramaticreconstructionoftheSovietcountrysideintosocalled"agriculturalcities."Laterheattemptedto
definenewideologicalgoalslinkedtoSovietsociety'sultimatetransitionfromsocialismtocommunism.When
thateffortinsocialinnovationspelledoutbytheparty'sideologuesinthenewpartyprogramadoptedin
1961turnedouttobelittlemorethanashoppinglistofadditionalmaterialbenefitstobeenjoyedbytheSoviet
peoplesometimeinthe1980s,Khrushchevturnedhisattentiontothepartyitselfandbegantotoywiththe
notionofredefiningitsrole.In1962hepushedthroughadrasticreformthatineffectsplitthepartyintotwo
separateorganisms,onedevotedtoagriculturalmattersandtheothertoindustrialproblems.Asheexplainedit,
"Theproductionlineisthemainone....Themainthingincommunistconstructioniseconomics,production,
thestruggleforthecreationofmaterialandspiritualgoodsforthelifeofman."12

57
 ThoughKhrushchev'sreformrantheriskoftransformingthepartyintotwoseparate,essentially
manageriallyorientedhierarchies(andwasforthatreasonimmediatelyundonebyKhrushchev'ssuccessorsafter
hisoverthrowinlate1964),itdidreflectarecognitionthattherelationshipbetweenthepoliticalsystemandthe
societyhadbecomedysfunctional,thatifthepoliticalsystemwasnolongerdefiningnew,grandiose,ideological
objectivesforsociety,thenthesystemitselfhadtobereformedinkeepingwiththemoreroutine,operational
requirementsofSovietsociety,whichhadbynowacquiredthetechnicalandindustrialwherewithalforitsown
further,steadygrowth.Sensingthatthepartywasinsearchofanewrole,Khrushchevwaspreparedtomakethe
necessaryreforms.

DefensiveOrthodoxy
Khrushchev'ssuccessorsrejectedhisviewandoptedinsteadforrelativelyminoradjustments
primarilyineconomicplanningandcontrolsimultaneouslyreemphasizingtheimperativenecessityof
ideologicalorthodoxyandmorevigorousideologicalindoctrination.UnderthepostKhrushchevregimethere
hasbeenneitheradefinitionofnewideologicalgoalsnoranymajortamperingwiththepoliticalstructure.Asa
consequence,officialviewsonthestateofSovietsociety,onforeignaffairs,ontheproblemsofthefuture,and
onthenatureofcontemporarycommunismcontainstrikinglylittlerecognitionofthenovelproblemsthatbeset
man,eitherintermsofhispersonalconditionorasamemberoftheemergingglobalcommunity.Difficult
problemsaresimplysweptundertheideologicalrug.
Onthedomesticfront,theprevailingofficialviewhasbeenthattheSovietUnion,havingcompleted
socialistconstruction,isnowlayingthefoundationsofacommunistsociety,andthatexistingproblemsare
essentiallyinstrumental,neededtoimprovetheefficiencyofasystemthatinitsbasicassumptionsandorgan
izationisofficiallyconsideredtobethemostadvancedandjustintheworld.Thelaginsocioeconomic
developmentinsomeareasofSovietlifeisascribedeithertotheravagesofWorld WarIIortothefailuresofthe
preevolutionaryregime.ThewritingsofrevisionistMarxistthinkersontheproblemsofpersonalalienationin
anadvancedurbansocietytosaynothingofantiSemitisminasocialistsocietyaredismissedas inappropri
atetoSovietconditions,orasmaliciousslander.TheSovietUnionissaidtohavenogenerationalproblems,and
onlyrecentlyhasurbancrimebeendiscussedasaphenomenoninitsownrightandnotmerelyasalegacyfrom
theprerevolutionaryera.
Theseviewshavebeenarticulatedinthecontextofintensifiedeffortstoreassertandexpandideological
training(therebypartiallycompensatingforthedeclineofcoercionasakeymeansofintegratingSovietsociety
withthepoliticalsystem).Thoughthesocialscopeoftheseeffortshasbeenexpanded,inrecentyearsthereis
openacknowledgmentofthefactthatspecialattentionhasbeenfocusedonthenewscientificcommunity:"The
partyandthepeoplewanttoseeinscientistsnotonlycreatorsandorganizersofscientifictechnicalprogressbut
alsopoliticalpeople,activefightersforthecauseofcommunism."13 Inaddition,therehavebeenexpressionsof
officialconcernoverallegedideologicalindifferenceamongscientistsand,whatisevenworse,overatendency
inthesecirclestoconsidertechnocratsthenaturalleadersofmodernsociety.14 Scientistshaverepeatedlybeen
warned(andtheverywarningsrevealtheattitudesofSovietscientists)nottoviewthemselvesas"superclass
humanists"buttoidentifycloselywiththeclassstruggleandthepeople.15
Theissueof"humanism"appearstohavebeenaparticularlysensitiveone.Humanism,acentral
Marxistconcern,canserveasapointofdepartureforacritiqueofbothStalinism andthepresentSovietsystem.
Moreover,thedehumanizingpotentialofmodernsciencehasgivennewurgencytotheproblemofdefining
humanisminthemodernworld.Theofficialview,statedauthoritativelyinaseriesofmajorarticlesinthekey
ideologicaljournals,hasbeenunequivocal:"Socialismisprofoundlyhumanisticbecauseiteliminatesthe
exploitationofmanbyman."Accordingly,"itisalsohumanisticwheniterectsthebuildingofanewsocietyat
thepriceofextraordinaryhardshipsinthe persistentstruggle againsttheold.Itisalsohumanisticwhen
conditionshavealreadybeencreatedforthethoroughdevelopmentoftheindividualbutsocietyisstill
compelledtocontroltheactivitiesofapersonandhislabordisciplineand,withintheframeworkandinthe
interestsofallofsocietyandofthecommunisteducationofaparticularindividual,doesnotpermitindividuals
toabusethefreedomspresentedbysocialism,doesnotpermitpeoplewithanundevelopedsenseof
responsibilityto violatethenormsofthesocialistcommunity,suppressestheoppositionofantisocialistforces,
etc."16 Thisargumenthasbeenbuttressedbytheassertionthat"thesocalled'eternal'valuesfreedom,
democracy,humanism,individualdignity...area weaponinthehandsofthebourgeoisietomisleadandfo6l
themasses,"17 andthattheissueofStalinismisessentiallyirrelevant.*
Viewssuchasthesehavebeenexpressedinthecontextofabroaderemphasisontheargumentthatan
ideologicalperspectiveoncontemporaryrealityisabsolutelyessentialinordertoobtainaccurateinsightintothat
reality,andthatscientificcommunism asdefinedbytheSovietleadersprovidestheonlyvalidperspective.
Althoughthelatterisnotanewproposition, thereisnoveltyinthedegreetowhichithasbeenlinkedinthemore

*
"Atthepresenttimeattemptsarebeingmadetodiscreditwhatwasdoneintheprocessofbuildingsocialismbyusingthebugbearof
'Stalinism.'The'Stalinism'bugbearisbeingusedtointimidateunstablepersons,tospreadthethoughtthatallfirmnessandrevolutionary
characterinpolitics,uncompromisingnessinideology,andconsistencyinthedefenseofMarxismare, ifyouplease,'Stalinism'"(D.I.
Chesnokov,"AggravationoftheIdeologicalandPoliticalStruggleandContemporaryPhilosophicalRevisionism,"VoprosyFilosofii,No.12,
1968).

58
prestigiousSovietscholarlyjournals,aswellasinmassmedia,withanattackonWesterntheoriesofideological
erosion,oftheemergenceofageneraltypeofindustrialsociety,and oftheubiquityofnewbureaucraticpolitical
elitesinalldevelopedpoliticalsystems.Sovietcriticshavemadeitclearthattheyviewthesetheoriesasnotonly
scientificallyerroneousbutpoliticallyharmfulandprobablydesigneddeliberatelytounderminecommunism.*
Sovietscholarshavebeenparticularlyvigorousinrejectingthetheoryof"convergence"oftheSovietand
Western,particularlyAmerican,systems.IntheSovietview,thecrucialanddistinctiveelementoftheSoviet
systemrulebythe communistpartyastheexpressionofproletariandictatorshiphasbeenunderestimatedby
Westernthinkers,whohavesuperficiallyfocusedontheexternalcharacteristicsofamodernindustrialsociety,
withoutdelvingmorepenetratinglyintothequestionofitssociopoliticalessence.ThoughsomeoftheSoviet
criticismsarenotwithoutmerit(andthereisacurioustouchofneoMarxistdeterminisminsomeoftheWestern
theoriesofconvergence),itisstrikinghowmuchintellectualefforthasbeeninvestedinassertingandproving
thedistinctivecharacterofthecommunistsystem.Itonceagainrevealstheimportanceattachedtothenotion
thattheSovietpastislinkedtoafuturethatisabsolutelydistinctiveandnotpartofabroaderstreamofman's
politicalevolution. ItalsomakespossibletheargumentthattheSovietsystemisfreeofthedilemmasthatbeset
contemporarymanelsewhere,anditfreesSovietcommunistsfromtheresponsibilityofengaginginacross
ideologicaldialogueaboutthese dilemmas.
TheofficialSovietdefinitionofforeignproblemsischaracterizedbysimilarintellectualinflexibility.
ThisisnottosaythattheSovietleadershipandelitearemisinformedorignorantaboutbasicfactsor
developments.ThereisnodoubtthatthelevelofSovietovertandcovertreportingofworldaffairshasimproved
considerably,andthatfactualmisrepresentationdesignedtomeetanticipatedideologicalpreferenceshas
declined.SpecializedSovietscholarlyjournalsonAfricaorAsiaSovietanalysesoftheCommonMarket,or
SovieteffortstodevelopsystematicstudiesoftheUnitedStatesgobeyondpurelyideologicalformulasand
reflecttheimportanceattachedtothedeeperunderstandingofregionaldevelopments.SomescholarlySoviet
journalsonworldaffairs(forexample, MirovaiaEkonomikaiMezhdunarodnyeOtnoshenia)comparevery
favorablywiththeirbestWesterncounterpartsintermsofsystematiccoverage,documentation,andscholarly
rigor.Specializedresearchinstitutes,suchastheInstituteofWorldEconomyandInternationalAffairs,are
apparentlybeingmorefrequentlyconsultedinthepreparationofpolicy,andthisdoubtlesscontributestogreater
sophisticationinthedecisionmakingprocess.
Yet,inspiteofthis,the Sovietconceptionofthebroadframeworkofcontemporaryreality,as
articulatedbytopleadersandevenaspresentedinscholarlyjournals,remainsfundamentallydogmatic.The
basicpremisecontinuestobetheManichaeannotionoftheantagonisticdichotomybetweenthesocialistandthe
capitalistworlds(orbetweengoodandevil).Thoughwarbetweenthesetwoworldsisnolongersaidtobe
"fatalisticallyinevitable,"andthedestructivenessofnuclearweaponsdictatesthe necessityofpeaceful
coexistenceindeed,sometimesevenclosercooperationistacticallydesirablebecauseofotherconsiderations
(forexample,theSinoSovietconflict)theunderlyingrealityofourageisstillsaidtobethecompetition
betweenthetwosystems:"Twoantagonistic socioeconomicsystemsarepittedagainsteachothertodayina
struggleofunprecedentedscopeandviolencewhichaffectsthelifeofhumansocietyinallitsaspects.The
antagonistsarecapitalismandsocialism."18 Eventuallyoneortheotherwillhavetoprevail, andSovietanalysts
areconfidentthattheyknowwhichoneitwillbe.Thisthemerunslikeathreadthroughallmajorspeeches,
foreignpolicyanalyses,orscholarlycommentariesonworldaffairs.
Itwouldbeanerrortodismisstheabove asmerelyaritualisticactofobeisancetodoctrine,ortoview
itasasignoffanaticalandimplacablemilitancy.Itsimportanceliesintheinfluenceoftheideological
frameworkonmoreimmediate,andotherwisequitewellinformed,policyjudgments.Thoughfarfrom
committingSovietleaderstoshorttermmilitancy,theideologicalframeworkdoesinhibitthemfromthinkingof

*
ForasystematicandwelldocumentedSovietcriticism,seeL.Moskvichev,"The'Deideologization'Theory:SourcesandSocialEssence,"
MirovaiaEkonomikaiMezhdunarodnyeOtnoshenia, No.12,1968.IntheSovietview,boththeMarxistrevisionistsandWesterntheoristsof
ideologicalevolution,erosion,ordeideologizationofSovietMarxismhaveessentiallybeenengagedinapoliticalstratagemdesignedto
underminetheideologicalfoundationsofSovietpower.Thepresentauthorwasparticularlysingledoutforcriticisminthisconnection.See,
forexample,ProfessorE.Modrzhinskaya's"AntiCommunismDisguisedasEvolutionism"(InternationalAffairs [Moscow],No.1,1969).
SheseesinWesternsociologicalwritinganefforttopave"theideologicalwayforsubversionagainstSocialism.Amongthesetheoriesare:
thetheoryofstagesineconomicgrowthpropoundedbyWaltRostow(awellknownU.S.reactionarypoliticianandsociologist)thedoctrine
ofthesingleindustrialsociety,whosemostfamouspropagandististhereactionaryFrenchpublicistandsociologistRaymondAronthe
convergencedoctrine,andthecapstoneofthemallthetheoryofevolution,whichhasbeenelaboratedingreatestdetailbyZbigniew
Brzezinski,DirectoroftheResearchInstituteonCommunistAffairsatColumbiaUniversity....
"TheprincipalfeaturesoftheevolutionarytheoryaresetoutinBrzezinski'swritingsofthelastfewyears....Adistinctiveandhighly
notablefeatureoftheevolutiontheoryisthedesirablesequenceofchange:fromideologytopoliticsleadingtochangesinthesocio
economicsystem,andnottheotherwayround,fromeconomicchangestosubsequentpoliticaltransformation,asthevotariesofconvergence
suggest"(p.16).

Thisemphasissometimesleadstostatementsthatvergeonthecomical,aswhenitwasassertedin amajoranalysisof"Problemsofthe
LastThirdoftheCentury"that"MarxismLeninismhasnoneedtoreconcileideaswithfacts."Theauthorapparentlyinallseriousness
addedthat"accordingtotherecentdecreeoftheSovietCommunistParty'sCentralCommittee...theoutstandingrevolutionaryeventsof
thetwentiethcenturyhaveallbeenassociatedwithLeninism"(V.A.Cheprakov,Izvestia,August18,1968).

Thus,aSovietscholar,inanambitiousefforttoanalyzecontemporaryworldaffairs,assertsthat"theoutcomeofthecompetitionrulesout
accident.Victoryordefeatarenecessary,thatis,unavoidable,andlawgoverned.Defeatcomesbutonceinsuchcompetition.Therewillbe
noreturnmatch,no'replay,'nochanceofrevenge"(Kh.Momjan,TheDynamicTwentiethCentury,Moscow,1968,pp.107108).

59
accommodationandstabilityasendsinthemselves,sincethatwouldbetantamounttonegatingthecommunist
viewofhistoryasafluid,dialecticalprocess.Accordingly,anofficialSovietanalysisoftheissuescoveredinthe
firsttwochaptersofthisbookwouldrunalongtheselines:"Thepresenteraisdominatedbytheappearanceof
theworldsocialistsystem.Itsemergenceis adecisiveforceofchange,notonlyacceleratingthepaceofsocialist
revolutionbutalsosuccessfullydeterringtheimperialistsfromcountermeasures.Waristhereforenolonger
inevitable,andpeacefulrivalrybetweenthetwosystems,andespecially betweentheUSSRandtheUnited
States,ispossible.Theeventualoutcomeofthecompetitionis,however,foreordained,giventheinherent
historicalsuperiorityofthecommunistsystem.Inthemeantime,inmanyareasmoreactivecooperationistobe
sought,inordertoavertwarortopromoteeconomicorsocialdevelopmentoftheThirdWorld.Insomeplaces
thepreconditionsforthepeacefultransitiontosocialismalreadyexistinsomeofthelessdevelopedcountriesa
violentrevolutionwillbenecessary,butitwouldbeatacticalerrortoprecipitateittoosoon(asurgedbythe
MaoistsortheCastroites)."
AuthoritativeSovietanalystshave,moreover,arguedthattheydetectsignsofintensifiedcrisisinthe
moreadvancedcapitaliststates."Politicalcrisesnowoccurfarmoreoftenthan,letussay,tentotwentyyears
ago,andnolongeronlyonthe'periphery'butinthechiefcentersofimperialism.Thesociopoliticalcrisesinthe
capitaliststatesarenowspreadingunderconditionsofanexacerbatedfinancialcrisisanddeteriorationinthe
overalleconomicsituationoftheimperialistcamp."19 Animportantnewfactorissaidtobethegrowing
radicalismofWesternintellectuals,themajorityofwhomunlikethoseofthepreWorldWarIIeraarenow
"becomingamoreactiveprogressiveforce."IntheSovietview,thispointstothefurtherintensificationofthe
internalcrisisoftheadvancedcapitalistworld,afactorthatismoreimportantthanthechangesoreventhe
revolutionaryupheavalsthatarelikelytooccurintheThirdWorld.
ThedecisiveequationthusremainsthatofAmericanSovietcompetition.Accordingly,thecrucial
operationalquestionleavingasideimmediatetacticalconsiderationsisnotwhetheragivencourseofaction
willadvancethecauseofworldcommunismbuthowitwillaffecttheSovietAmericanbalance:infavorofthe
SovietUnionoragainstit?TheSovietpolicymakersensesnocontradictionbetweenSovietinterestsandthoseof
theinternationalmovement,and hethusexperiencesnoideologicalembarrassmentinassistingantiAmerican
elementsotherwiseideologicallyforeigntocommunismorinseekingtoreachaccommodationwiththeUnited
Statesonspecificissues.ThisclosesubjectiveidentificationofpurelySovietstateinterestswiththeideological
cause,andtheresultinggoalorientedflexibilityintactics,renderimpossiblethesimplisticjudgmentthatthe
Sovietsareeitherideologicallyobsessedorideologicallycynical.
Inregardtotheideologicalconfrontation,Sovietleadershaveventuredtheopinionthat"the
contemporarystageinhistoricaldevelopmentisdistinguishedbyintensesharpeningoftheideologicalstruggle
betweencapitalismandsocialism."ThisconclusionwasformallyexpressedbytheSovietCentralCommitteein
April1968.20 Itwasfollowedbyasystematicdevelopmentofthepropositionthattheworldiswitnessing"the
risingroleofideology"andthatideologicalcompetitionininternationalaffairsisgaininginintensity.The
SovietinvasionofCzechoslovakiainAugust1968gaverisetoparticularlyextensiveelaborationsofthistheme.
ItwasexplicitlyarguedthatinternalchangeinCzechoslovakiawasabettedbyWesternpoliciesof"peaceful
engagement"thathadastheirultimateobjectivethetransformationofcommunismintosocialdemocracy.This
policywaslabeledbySovietwritersasthenewWesternstrategyof"peacefulcounterrevolution."21
Theemphasisputonthecontinuingconfrontationbetweenthetwoconflicting ideologicalsystems
andthusonthenotionthatcontemporaryrealitycanbeunderstoodintermsofsuchadichotomyisclosely
relatedtotheSovietUnion'sdefinitionofitsownroleininternationalcommunismandofcontemporary
communismitself.InspiteoftheenormouschangesininternationalcommunismprecipitatedbytheSinoSoviet
dispute,bythedeclineofSovietauthority,andbythedemoralizationresultingfromthemilitaryinvasionofone
communiststatebyanother,theSovietleadershavecontinuedtoupholdtheorthodoxconceptofasingle
movementstillledbyMoscow.Theyhaveaccordinglycontinuedtopressfor"unityconferences"ofasmany
communistpartiesaspossible,eventhoughtheresultshaveoftenworkedagainstunity.Theyhave also
continuedtoassertadogmaticinterpretationofideologyandhaveconsequentlybeenunderthenecessityofex
communicatingthosewhodiffer.*
TheresulthasbeennotonlytheoftrepeatedcondemnationofrevisionistsorofChinesecommunists
butthe increasingintellectualinabilitytoassimilateindoctrineeithernewrevolutionarypracticeorthe
progressiveevolutionofcommunisminpower.TheSovietattitudetowardtherebellionofWesternyouthisa
caseinpoint.Assoonasitbecameclearthattheseyoungpeoplewerenotpreparedtoacceptestablished
communistleadership andthattheirideologueswerecriticalofSovietbureaucratism theSovietattitude
becamevehementlyhostile.Marcusewasespeciallyattackedforoveremphasizingtherole oftheyoungandthe
*
"Onlyonesocialtheory,oneteaching,iscapableofexpressingthecontentanddirectionofworldprocessesinourepochindepththisis
Marxism Leninism.Onlyonephilosophyiscapableofinterpretingallthecontradictionsofthepresentstageofhistoricaldevelopment....
CommunistshavealwaysregardedLeninismandcontinuetoregarditnotasapurelyRussianbutaninternationalMarxistdoctrine"(F.
Konstantinov,"MarxismLeninism:A SingleInternationalTeaching,"Pravda, June14,1968).TheforegoingviewpermitsSovietideologues
toassertthat"thephilosophical'thoughtsofMaoTsetung'arephilistine,oftenanarchoidealisticeclecticismwhichhasnothingincommon
withMarxistLeninistphilosophy"(A.Rumyantsev,writingin Kommunist,No.2,1969).ItshouldbenotedthatRumyantsevand
KonstantinovareleadingSovietideologues.*Theseattackssometimestookgrotesqueforms.Thus,aRadioMoscowcommentator,Valentin
Zakharov,devotedanentireprogramtothethemethatMarcuseandBrzezinskiwerejointlyinvolvednaturallyinbehalfoftheCIAin
organizing"theCzechoslovakcounterrevolution"in1968(RadioMoscow,August19,1969).

60
intellectualsattheexpenseoftheclassicalconceptofarevolutionbytheworkingclass.*Ineffect,Soviet
theoristsrefusedtotakeseriouslyintoaccountthepotentiallyrevolutionaryconsequencesoftheeducational
upsurgeinthedevelopedworld.
Similarly,whentheCastroiterevolutioninLatinAmericamovedintodirectguerrillaaction,the
establishedproSovietCommunistpartiesobjected,andtheyweresupportedbyMoscow.Here,too,the
preferencewasforthetried,citybased,partydirected,proletarianrevolutionarymodel.WhenCzechoslovak
politicalleadersbegantosuggestthatLeninism,aproductofspecificallyRussianconditions,wasperhapsno
longerthemostsuitableguideforthefurtherevolutionofCzechoslovakcommunism,theSovietreactionwasto
chargedeviation.Thus,inspiteofmanypronouncementsconcerningmultipleroadstosocialism,theSoviet
partyhasremainedweddedtotheconceptofdogmatic universalism,whichisuniversalonlyinthesensethatit
seestheSovietexperienceasfundamentallyuniversalinrelevance.

PerspectiveonTomorrow
ThisrigiditybothconditionsandrestrictsSovietthinkingaboutthefuture.Studiesofthefuturehave
becomebothfashionableandwidespreadintheWest.Theyhaveinvolvedsystematicattemptstolink
technologicalprojectionswithsocialforecasting,aswellaswithmorecritical,normativediscussions.The
philosophicalramificationsofscientificdiscoveries,especiallyastheypertaintothehumanbeing,havebecome
theobjectofaparticularlyintensedialogue.Thepoliticalimplicationsoftechnologyhavealsoattractedthe
attentionofscholarsandincreasinglyevenofpoliticalleaders.GiventhefutureorientedthrustofMarxist
thought,onewould haveexpectedtheSovietUniontobeintheforefrontoftheseinvestigationsandanalyses.
Thishasonlybeenpartiallytrue.
SystematicSovieteffortstostudythefuturewerespurredbyhighleveldecisionstakenattheTwenty
thirdPartyCongress.Initswake,specialstudygroupswereestablishedforthatpurposeinanumberofSoviet
institutesforexample,theSovietAcademy'sgroupforSocialandTechnologicalForecasting.Inaddition,
manyinformalgroupsweresetuptobringSovietscholarsand intellectualstogether.Aspecialannual
publicationentirelydevotedtothefutureofsciencewasestablishedin1966,anditsfirstnumbershaveincluded
contributionsbybothSovietandnonSovietscholars.22 Sovietscholarsalsoestablishedusefulcontactswith
similarstudygroupsandpublicationsintheWest,includingtheUnitedStates.
SolidworkhasbeendonebySovietscholars,primarilyintheareaoftechnologicaleconomic
forecasting.Forexample,in1964theSovietphilosophicaljournal, VoprosyFilosofii,beganpublishingaseries
ofarticlesonthethemeof"TheScientificTechnicalRevolutionandItsSocialConsequences."Onthewhole,
these articleshavebeenseriousandfrequentlyveryinformativetreatmentsofsuchsubjectsasthemethodology
offorecasting,theorganizationalproblemsofscienceinthecontextofthescientificexplosion,theroleof
cybernetics,comparativeanalysesofscientificdevelopmentandprojectionsfortheUnitedStatesandtheSoviet
Union,tosaynothingofmorespecificallySovietorientedeconomicandtechnologicalprognoses.23
Incontrasttotheseefforts,therehasbeenastrikingpaucityofpolitical,ideological,orphilosophical
studiesfocusedontheinteractionswithprojectedtechnologicaleconomicchanges.ThereisnodoubtthatSoviet
intellectualsareawareoftheunavoidablelinkbetweenthetwo,* butpublishedSovietdiscussionshavebeen
limitedprimarilytocriticalevaluationsofWesternliteratureonthesubject.Intheircruderformsparticularly
whenappearinginthetheoreticalorganoftheparty,Kommunistthese"evaluations"havebeenlimitedto
denunciation.+Moreseriousthoughstillprimarilynegativeassessmentshaveappearedinotherjournals,
particularlyintheorganoftheInstituteonWorldEconomics.Inbothcases,however,thetendencyhasbeento
denythepossibilityofeithertheevolutionofWesternpolitiesintonewpostindustrialformsnolonger
determinedbythecapitalistphaseofindustrializationorthecapacityofthesenewformstoovercomethe
individualcrisisofalienationandfrustrationassociatedwiththecapitalistsystem.
ThisiswhysomePolishcommunists,thoughloyaltothecommonideology,havenotedcriticallythat
"wehavetogiveamorespecificanswertothequestionastowhatreallyhappensinmodernmonopolistic

*
Inastatementremarkablyfreeofideologicalcant,oneSovietscientist andnovelistremarked,"Thefuturehasbornethebruntofall
kindsofemotions:optimism,blindirrationalhope,andblackdespair.Ithasbeenthreatenedbybothhystericalseersandprecisecalculations.
Attemptshave beenmadetopoisonitorsimplytoannihilateit,toturnitbackward,toreturnittocaves.Ithassurvived.Todaywehavethe
opportunitytogiveitseriousandthoughtfulstudy.Today,perhapsasneverbeforeinhumanhistory,thefuturedependsonthepresentand
demandsanewapproach.Itisfraughtwithcriseswecannotassesstoday.Crisesconnectednotonlywithadifferentconceptionoffreedom,
butalsoadifferentideaofindividuality"(DaniilGranin,"AndYet...," InostrannaiaLiteratura [Moscow],No.1,1967).
Incontrast,thefivevolumework SocialismandCommunism,preparedbytheInstituteofPhilosophyoftheSovietAcademyofSciencesina
comprehensiveefforttosumupthelikelyshapeofSovietsocietyundercommunism,refrains fromanyanalysisofthesocialtensions
broughtonbythescientificrevolution.Itpresentsauniformlyblissfulpictureofthefuture.+Forexamplesofparticularlyprimitive
writings,seeG.Gerasimov,"TheFalsifiersoftheFuture,"Kommunist,No.2,1968,forcriticismofAron,Fourastie,andothersorYuri
Zhukov'svariousarticlesattackingmyearlierarticle,"AmericaintheTechnetronicAge."Sovietcommentatorswereparticularlyincensed
bymyobservation("AmericaintheTechnetronicAge")that"theworldisontheeveofatransformationmoredramaticinitshistoricand
humanconsequencesthanthatwroughteitherbytheFrenchortheBolshevikrevolutions.Viewedfromalongperspective,thesefamousrev
olutionsmerelyscratchedthesurfaceofthehumancondition.Thechangestheyprecipitatedinvolvedalterationsinthedistributionofpower
andpropertywithinsocietytheydidnotaffecttheessenceofindividualandsocialexistence.Lifepersonalandorganizedcontinuedon
muchasbefore,eventhoughsomeofitsexternalforms(primarilypolitical)weresubstantiallyaltered.Shockingthoughitmaysoundtotheir
acolytes,bytheyear2000itwillbeacceptedthatRobespierreandLeninweremildreformers."

61
capitalismandwhatinfluencethetechnicalrevolutionhasonit."Theyhaveobservedthatcommunisttheoryhas
noconceptofthetransitionfrommoderncapitalismtosocialism, thatithasnotfacedtheproblemofthe
increasingtechnologicalobsolescenceofcommunisteconomiesascomparedtothoseoftheadvancedWest,that
ithasstilltoconfrontthefactthatsocialismthoughithasprovenitsmettleinovercomingindustrial
backwardnesshasyettoproveitscapacityforscientificinnovation,andthatithasnotgivenanythoughttothe
significanceofconflictsbetweengenerations.24 Inafarrangingandthoughtfuldiscussion,aRumanian
communist,appealing"ForaMarxistTheoryoftheTechnicalScientificRevolution,"putitevenmorebluntly:
"InrecentyearstheWesthasevidencedamoresustainedconcernwiththetheoreticalelaborationoftheessence
ofthescientifictechnicalrevolutionanditssocialandhumanconnections....Wecannotasyetspeakofthe
existenceofacoherent,unifiedMarxist theoryofthescientifictechnologicalrevolution."25Inshort,Soviet
politicalthoughthasfailedtoprovideanysystematicdevelopmentofideasconcerningthefuturepoliticaland
ideologicalevolutionoftheSovietsystemitselfor,forthatmatter, oftheworldrevolutionaryprocessunder
novelhistoricconditions.Thisisnotonlybecauseintellectualdissenthasbeenrestrictedtoinformal,
"underground"formsof expressionbutprimarilybecausetherehasbeennoppenendedcreativepolitical
ideologicaldiscussionamongSovietMarxiststhemselves.Sovietideologyisnolongershapedthroughthe
creativeinteractionoftheoreticalthoughtandpracticeaswasthe caseuntilStalin'spowerbecamesupreme
butistheproductofabureaucraticprocessofdefinition,aprocessentirelymonopolizedbycareerparty
officials.IdeologyemanatesfromtheofficesoftheCentralCommittee,whereitispreparedonthebasisof
committeereportsandstaffpapersbeforebeingsubmittedtothePolitburoforgroupapproval.Anideology
whosecontentisdeterminedbyapoliticalprocessisnotlikelytobepreoccupiedwithspeculative,andtherefore
potentiallydisruptive,issues. Ithaslittletodowithintellectualcreativityandagreatdealtodowithbureaucratic
imperatives.
Paradoxically,bureaucraticsterilityinthoughtpromptsintensifiedemphasisonrevolutionaryrhetoric
andsymbolism.Becausetheoncerevolutionary doctrinehasbecomesointertwinedwiththevestedinterestsof
guardianswhoarethemselveshighlysensitivetoRussiannationalinterests,thereisatendencytotakeide
ologicalrefugeinincreasedemphasisonrevolutionarysymbolism.Thisisamanifestationcommontoall
doctrinesintheirintellectualdecline:aspracticeincreasinglydeviatesfromprescription,symbolismandrhetoric
gaininimportance.Theconsequence,however,istocongealcertainformulasandclaims,makingintellectual
innovationmoredifficult,evenwhenontheoperationallevelideologicalrestraintsareincreasinglyevaded.
Theresultisaconditionofarrestedideologicaldevelopment,ofideologicalpetrifactionratherthan
erosion,Marxistthoughtremainingvital onlyoutsidetheSovietUnion.* Thevisionoftomorrowisreducedto
meaninglessandincreasinglyvaguedeclarations,suchastheconclusiontotheofficialSovietprognosisforthe
remainderofthiscentury:"ArmedwithMarxistLeninistthoughtandfilledwithhistoricaloptimism,theleading
revolutionaryforcesoftheworldwillmarchintothefuture."26

3.TheSovietFuture
Thecrucialquestiontodayis:WhenwilltheSovietUnionbreakwiththeStalinistlegacy?Withoutsuch
abreakitwillremaindifficultfortheSovietleaderstodiagnosetheproblemsoftheirownsocietyaccuratelyand
tomaketheSovietUniontrulyrelevanttotheintellectualandinternationaldilemmasofourtime.Suchabreak
neednotrequiretheabandonmentofsocialismorofMarxism,butitwouldrequirethetransformationofa
politicalsystemthattodaybothreflectsandisbuttressedbyanobsolescentandbureaucratizedideologyof
powerintoonemoreinkeepingwiththeemerginghumanist,universalistmoodofourtime.Itisnoexaggeration
tosaythoughsomeanticommunistsmaybeloathtoadmitthisthatthepeaceofmankinddependsinlarge
measureontheSovietUnion'sreturntotheoccidentalMarxisttraditionfromwhichthemoreorientalLeninism
Stalinismhaddivertedit,butnotnecessarilyontheoutrightabandonmentofMarxism.
IdeologicalchangeintheSovietUnionwillinevitablybecloselyconnectedwithsocioeconomic
change,butitwouldbeamistaketoviewthelatterasdictatingtheformer.AMarxistframeworkofanalysisis
theoneleastsuitedtounderstandingcommunistpolitics,inwhichthepoliticalsuperstructureactuallydominates
theeconomicbase.PoliticalchangeintheSovietUnionwillnecessarilybeinfluencedbytheemergenceofa
newsocialelite, moretechnologicalinitsorientation,butitwillbeevenmoreaffectedbythechangesinthe
internalcharacterandoutlookoftheprofessional,rulingpartybureaucracy,andbythedegreetowhichthiselite
succeedsincopingwithinternalSovietproblems.

InternalDilemmas
Theseproblemsarelikelytodeveloponthelevelsofbotheconomictechnologicalefficiencyand
politicalideologicaldissent.TherecanbelittledoubtthattheSovieteconomywillcontinuetogrowintheyears
ahead,butitdoesappearlikelythat,barringsomeunforeseendevelopmentineithertheUnitedStatesorthe

*
ThismatchestheVictorianismandgraynessofmuchofcontemporarySovietlife.LincolnSteffensexclaimed,onvisitingtheSovietUnion
intheearly1920s,"Ihavebeenintothefutureanditworks!"TodaymoreandmorevisitorstotheSovietUnioncomebacksaying,"Ihave
been intothepastanditisabore."

62
SovietUnion,theabsolutegapbetweenthetwocountrieswillwidenevenfurther.* Thegrowthwilltherefore
probablybeinsufficienttosatisfytheideologicalambitionsofthepoliticalelite,anditisevenlesslikelyto
satisfyrisingsocialaspirations.TheseaspirationsarecertaintoescalateascomparisonwiththeWestmakesit
moreandmoreapparentthatmajorsectorsofSovietsocietyhaveremainedextraordinarilyantiquated.
Sovietbackwardnessisparticularlyevidentinagriculture.Agriculturalproductivityhasleapfrogged
duringthelastseveraldecadesinmostdevelopedcountriesandlatelyeveninanumberoftheunderdeveloped
ones.Notsointhe SovietUnion,whereproductivitysteadilydeclinedandhasonlyrecentlyrisensomewhat.
TheSovietruralpopulationisunderemployed,undercompensated,andunderproductive.Theresolutionofthe
Sovietagriculturalproblemisoneofthemoreurgentbut alsoideologicallymoresensitiveproblemsonthe
Sovietagenda.(ThetechnologicalunderdevelopmentofSovietagricultureisreflectedinalaborforce
distributionthatplacestheSovietUnionconsiderablybehindthemoreadvancedsectorsoftheglobe.)

TABLE9.
DISTRIBUTION OFLABORFORCE
PERCENTAGEDISTRIBUTIONBYSECTOR
AREA Agriculture Industry Services
UnitedStates 8 39 53
WesternEurope 14 45 41
Oceania 23 34 43
Japan 33 28 39
USSR 45 28 27
LatinAmerica 48 20 32
Source: InternationalLaborReview, JanuaryFebruary1967.

Intheindustrialsector,moreadvancedthanagriculture,theremarkableachievementsofSovietscienceinsuch
areasasspaceandweaponstechnologyhaveobscuredasituationthatisalsofarfromsatisfactoryforamodern,
industrializedsociety.IthasbeenestimatedthattheSovietUnion(allowingforthedifferentialinactualcosts)
hasinrealtermsbeenspendingapproximatelyasmuchforresearchanddevelopmentastheUnitedStates.27
Moreover,Sovietscientificmanpowerhasbeengrowingatanimpressiverateandnowmatchesthatofthe
UnitedStates.Inaddition,Soviettheoreticalworkinanumberoffields,particularlyphysics,hasbeenofthe
firstorder.
Yettheoverallsocioeconomicbenefitsofthe Sovietscientificefforthavebeenrelativelymeager.
ThoughSovietleaderswerequicktocapitalizeideologicallyontheirinitialspacesuccessesbyclaimingthat
theyprovedthesuperiorityofcommunism(anassertionquietlyallowedtofadeaftertheAmericanlandingon
themoon),thefactremainsthattheSovietUnionhasnotbeenabletoproducetechnologicallyadvanced
productscapableofpenetratingeconomicallyrewardingworldmarketsinthefaceofWesterncompetition,nor
hasitsatisfiedmorethantherudimentaryneedsofdomesticconsumption.Eveninsucharelativelyelementary
industrialfieldasautomobileproduction,theSovietUnionhasbeencompelledtorelyonforeignhelp(currently
Italian)toproduceworkableandeconomicallyfeasibleautomobiles.28 Therigidseparationofsecretmilitary
researchfromtherestoftheeconomy,aswellastheconcentrationofSovietscientificresearchersininstitutes
remotefromindustry,hasmeantthatresearchbreakthroughshaveeitherneverbeendeveloped,developedonly
formilitarypurposes,ordevelopedonlyafterconsiderable delay. TheSovietlagisunmistakableincomputers,
transistors,lasers,pulsars,andplastics,aswellasintheequallyimportantareasofmanagementtechniques,
laborrelations,psychology,sociology,economictheory,andsystemsanalysis.

*
ItcanbeestimatedthatiftheGNPoftheUnitedStatesgrowsat3.5percentperannum,by1985itwillbeover$1.5trillioniftheratesof
the1960scontinue,itwillalreadybe$1.7trillionby1980iftheSovietGNPgrowsatthehigherrateof5percent,by1985itwillbejust
under$800billionifitgrowsattheevenhigherrateof7percent,by1985theGNPwillbeapproximately$1.1trillion.Thustheabsolute
gapwillnotnarrowandcouldevenwidenconsiderablybetween1965and1985.
In1961theSovietleadersformallyadoptedapartyprogramwhich,amongotherthings,promisedthatby1970theSovietUnionwillhave
surpassedtheUnitedStatesinindustrialoutput.Clearly,thishasnothappened.

SovietAcademicianV.Trapeznikovestimatedthat98percentofSovietresearchersworkininstitutes,whereas60percentofAmerican
researchersworkdirectlyintherelevantindustries.HealsoestimatesthatapproximatelyhalftheSovietresearchdiscoveriesareobsolescent
bythetimeoftheirdevelopment(Pravda, January19,1967).SeealsotheinterviewwithAcademicianV.M.Glushkov,inKomsomolskaia
Pravda, May15,1968,inwhichhecallsfortherapidtrainingof"systemsmanagers,"askillinwhich hefeelsthatAmericansexceland
whichhasnoequivalentintheSovietUnion.HealsourgedtheregularretrainingofSovietmanagers,againcitingAmericanprecedents.

"Certainsectors,includingofcoursespaceandsomemilitaryR&D,andanimportantpartoftheironandsteelindustry,aretechnically
veryadvancedbutmanyindustries,particularlyintheconsumergoodssector,arefarlesstechnicallydevelopedthaninmajorWestern
countries....
"TheimpressionwhichemergesfrombothSovietandWesternstudiesisthattheSovietUnionislesstechnicallyadvancedthantheUnited
Statesinallbutafewpriorityindustries,andthatinanumberofmajorindustriestheSovietUnionistechnologicallybehindthe
industrializedcountriesofWestern Europe"(Science PolicyintheUSSR,pp.9,476).
AccordingtoastudyoftheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency,theSovietUnion,whichin1954wasthefirstnationtoadaptnuclear
energyforpeacefuluses,hadby1969beensurpassedbytheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdomby1975itwillbebehindtheUnited
States,theUnitedKingdom,Japan,Canada,Sweden,andGermany,withitsmegawattageapproximatelyfourteentimeslessthanthatofthe

63
 Tocorrectthiscondition,thegovernmentinitiatedin1968aseriesofreformsdesignedtospur
scientificresearchanddevelopmentandtoimprovethequalityofmanagement.TheCentralCommitteeofthe
partypassedaspecialresolutioninOctober1968("OnMeasurestoRaisetheEfficiencyoftheWorkofScien
tificOrganizationsandtoAcceleratetheUtilizationofScientificandTechnicalAchievementsintheNational
Economy"),highlycriticalofSovietresearchanddevelopmentandinitiatingaseriesofreforms,whichin
essenceupgradedthestatusofresearchersworkingdirectlyinindustrytothatheldbyscientistsemployedin
purelyscientificinstitutes,createdresearchlaboratoriesbasedinindustrialenterprises,andofferedbonusesand
awardsforinnovation.AsAcademicianTrapeznikovputit,"Animportantitemintheresolutionisthe
establishmentofcompetitioninscientifictechnicalideasandproposals."29
Itisfarfromcertainthatthesereformswillsufficetogenerateacreativeandsociallysignificantburst
ofinnovationandadaptation.Sovietscientistsrecognizethatcreativityrequires"anatmosphereoffree
discussion,polemics,andairingofideas,evenifsomeofthemareradicallywrong."30 Thisfactorisinturnre
latedtotheideologicalandinstitutionalorganizationofsocietyasawhole,andcannotbecorrectedmerelybya
feworganizationaladjustments.TheOECDstudy,SciencePolicyintheUSSR (1969),whichrevealsina
detailed,statisticallydocumentedmannertheextraordinarydisproportionbetweenthescaleoftheSovieteffort
anditsrelativelymeagersocioeconomicconsequences,reinforcestheviewthatideologicalpolitical
centralizationresultsatbestinacapricioussciencepolicyandatworstinacatastrophicone.*
TherecanbenodoubtthatintheyearstocometheSovietUnionwillaccomplishmanyremarkable
scientificfeats,especiallyintheinternationallyprestigiousrealmofspaceinvestigationsandinscientificareas
relatedtodefenseresearch.ItsmilitarytechnologywillalsocontinuetomatchAmerica'sandinsomeareaswill
doubtlesssurpassit.Thiswillbedonebycrashprogramsconcentratingeconomicresourcesandscientifictalent.
TheSovietorganizationalstructureisremarkablysuitedtosuchprograms.Butthecrucialquestioniswhether
SovietscienceandindustrialmanagementcanprovideSovietsocietywiththebroadgaugedpatternofscientific
innovationnecessarybothtoassureinternalprogressandtoadvancetheinternationalpositionoftheSoviet
Union.
Theforcesopposingfarreachingscientificandeconomicreformsareformidable.Theyareprimarily
thebureaucraticpartyelite,especiallythe ideologicalsectors,andsomeoftheupperechelonsofthearmed
forces,whofearthatdecentralizationwouldalsomeanthetransferofsomekeyresearchinstitutestononmilitary
uses.TheupperechelonsofpartyofficialdomarestilllargelytheproductsoftheStalinistera,andmanyamong
themgottheirstartduringthepurges.Paradoxically,andcontrarytoWesternspeculation,themanagerialelite
hasalsobeenpartoftheopposition.ThepresentSovietmanagerialgeneration,trainedtooperateina highly
confined,hierarchicalsetting,isnotpredisposedtoassumethegreaterpersonalhazardsthatamore
decentralized,competitivesystemwouldnecessarilyinvolve.+Proposalsforeconomicreformshave
characteristicallycomemostlyfromthetheoreticaleconomists.
Theproblemofintellectualfreedompromptsconsiderationsthataremoredirectlyconcernedwith
politicsandideology.Itisimpossibletojudgetheextentoffundamental,unorthodoxdissentintheSovietUnion
of thelate1960sandearly 1970s. Inlate1968twosuccessiveissuesofthemagazine ProblemsofCommunism
weredevotedtotheundergroundwritings,petitions,protests,andappealsofdissentingSovietintellectuals.They
madeforremarkableandprofoundlymovingreading,asdid someseparatelypublisheddocumentsinwhich
Ukrainianintellectualsprotestedthesuppressionoftheircountry.31 Thesepublicationsindicatedtheexistenceof
anactiveandarticulategroupofintellectuals,largelyconcentratedinMoscowandLeningrad,composedinsome
casesoftheoffspringoftheSovietpoliticalelitebutmoreoftenofthechildrenofprominentcommunistswho

UnitedStates(PowerandResearchReactorsinMemberStates).
AsBurksputsit,"ThecurveoftechnologicaldevelopmentintheWestisexponential.Syntheticfibers,plastics,nuclearenergy,transistors,
digitalcomputers,xerography,lasers,succeedoneanotherinseeminglyendlesssuccession.AsWesterntechnologybecomesmorecomplex,
furthermore,thetimelaginvolvedinitsreproductionbyEastEuropeansbecomesgreater.Borrowingtimerunsanywherefromtwotofifteen
yearswiththeoddsatleast5050thattheproductwillbe,inWesternterms,obsolescentwhenitfirstappearsontheEasternmarket.In
computers,thetimelagforSoviet(nottospeakofEastEuropean)borrowingvariesbetweentwoandtenyears"(Burks,p.8).Seealsodata
citedonp.133, supra, especiallyasitconcernscomputers.)
*
AnexampleofthelatterresultistheLysenkoaffairanditsdisastrouseffectsonSovietbiology.Anextraordinarilyvividandinformative
accountoftheaffairisprovidedbytheSovietscientistZ.A.Medvedev,TheRiseandFallofT.D.Lysenko, New York,1969.Medvedev's
bookwaswrittenintheSovietUnion,butitspublicationtherewasnotpermitted.+Moreover,asJeremyAzraelhasconvincinglyarguedin
his ManagerialPowerinSovietPolitics(Cambridge,Mass.,1966),itmustberecognizedthat"occupationalspecializationcanattainahigh
levelwithoutgivingrisetosocialorpoliticalpluralismthatengineersandmanagerscanbegovernedatleastasmuchbytransfunctional
ideologicalandpoliticalcommitmentsasbytheir'objective'interestsasincumbentsofeconomicrolesthattheseinterestscanbelargely,if
notcompletely,satisfiedwithintheframeworkofapoliticalsystemthatisneitherdemocraticnortechnocraticandthatmenwhoare
orientedtowardthemaximizationofpoliticalpowercansuccessfullymaintainapositionofdominanceovermenwhoareorientedtoward
theoptimizationofeconomicutilities,althoughtheirdoingsomayrequireimportantsacrifices"(p.175).

Itisimportanttodifferentiateherebetweeninstrumental,orthodoxdissentandfundamental,unorthodoxdissent.Thetwoaresometimes
confusedbyoutsideobservers,withtheresultthatinstrumentaldissentersarelionizedforhavingrunnonexistentrisksandthegovernment's
toleranceofthemisinterpreted asthesignofabasicdeparturefromtheLeninistStalinisttradition.Theclassiccontemporaryexampleis
YevgenyYevtushenko.His"dissent"hasbeenprimarilyinstrumentalincontent:ithasaimedatmakingtherelationshipbetweenthepolitical
systemand'societymorecompatible,withoutaddressingitselftothequestionwhetherinfactthemorebasic,ideologicalunderpinningsof
thesystemneededrethinkingandrevision.Incontrast,preciselybecauseAlexanderSolzhenitsyn'sorPasternak'sworks havehadtheeffect
ofquestioningthehistoricalantecedentsofthepoliticalsystemmoresearchingly,theyhavebeenobjectsofmoreassertiveofficial
displeasure.

64
hadperishedunderStalin.Thoughanumberofthesedissentershavebeentriedbothprivatelyandpubliclyin
MoscowandLeningrad,theyhavenotbeendeterredfromprotesting,andtheydidsoagain,atgrave
personalrisk,followingtheSovietoccupationofCzechoslovakia.
Forthetimebeingandforsometimetocome,theintellectualandorthodoxdissenterswillinall
probabilityremainarelativelysmall,isolatedgroup.Liketheirpredecessorsinthenineteenthcentury,atthe
momenttheydonotappearabletoattractbroaderpopularsupport.ThemajorityoftheSovietUnion'surban
populationonlyonegeneration removedfromtheirruralsettingarecharacterizedbyasocialorthodoxy
basedonarathersimplisticinternalizedideologyandbyasenseofsatisfactionintheirrecentsocial
advancement.Moreover,initssocialoriginsandwaysofthinking,theparty isclosertothemassesthanthe
massesaretotheintellectuals.*
Averyspecialandparticularlyperplexingkindofdissentisposedbyincreasingrestlessnessamongthe
SovietUnion'snonRussiannations.Thepoliticalsignificanceofthisphenomenonhaslargelybeenignoredby
AmericanscholarsofSovietaffairs.Yetaboutonehalfofthetwohundredandfortymillioninhabitantsofthe
SovietUnionarenonRussian,andmanyofthempossessadistinctivesenseoftheirownculturalheritage,their
ownlanguage,territory,andhistory.Theirintelligentsia,almostentirelySovietreared,tendstobeincreasingly
assertivethoughnotnecessarilysecessionistinattitude.ItisbeginningtodemandalargershareinSoviet
decisionmakingaswellasabiggerpartoftheeconomicpie,anditisbecomingincreasinglyleeryof
Russification.TosomeextentthisRussificationisdeliberately fosteredbyMoscow,butitisalsothenatural
resultofindustrializationandmodernization.OfficialSovietdiscussionsofthisproblem,aswellasattackson
thedangersoflocalnationalism,indicatethatSovietleadershipisbecomingapprehensiveindeed,anumberof
nonRussianintellectualshavebeentriedandsentencedinrecentyears.Forthemoment,theSovietgovernment
hassucceededinconfiningnationalisttendenciestoarelativelyfewintellectualswhileevidenceontheattitude
ofnonRussianpartycadrestendstobeambiguoushowever,theveryscaleofthisproblem,aswellasthefact
thatnationalismtendstobeinfectiouswhethersuppressedortolerated,wouldsuggestthatintheyearstocome
theSovietUnionmightwellbefacedwithanationalityproblemgraverinitspoliticalconsequencesthanthe
racialproblemintheUnitedStates.
Therumblingsofideologicaldiscontentwithinthescientificcommunityhaveprobablybeenmore
immediatelydisturbingtotheparty.ThenowwellknownmanifestobytheprominentSovietnuclearphysicist
AndreiSakharov,whichwaspublishedintheWestinmid1968,32 hadapparentlyfirstbeencirculatedamong
Sovietscientistsandthenrevisedbytheauthorinthelightofcomments.ThefactthatsubsequentSoviet
responsestoSakharovtookanindirectform,nevermentioninghimbyname,andthathewasnotdenouncedby
theusualdeviceofapublicstatementofcondemnationsignedbyhiscolleagues,seemstoindicatethatthe
governmentthoughtitpreferabletoavoiddirectconfrontationandpublicdiscussion.
Thisdocumentisremarkableinthatitnotonlychallengestherightofideologicalorthodoxytocontinue
butalsoattemptstoofferanalternativevisionofthefuture.Insodoing,itexposesSovietrealitytoascathing
critique.Sakharov'sprincipalunderlyingassumptioniswellsummarizedbyhisassertionthat"anypreachingof
theincompatibilityofworldideologiesandnationsisamadnessandacrime."Hecategoricallyrejectsany
restraintwhatsoeveronintellectualfreedomandcondemns"theossifieddogmatismofabureaucraticoligarchy
anditsfavoriteweapon, ideologicalcensorship."Inrejectingintellectualsubordinationtothewillof"theparty's
centralapparatusanditsofficials,"healsoasks,"Whowillguaranteethattheseofficialsalwaysexpressthe
genuineinterestsoftheworkingclassasawholeandthegenuineinterestsofprogressratherthantheirowncaste
interests?"
Histhesisisthatouragerequiresandcompelsincreasinginternationalcooperationbothtoavoida
nuclearwarandtoovercomethedangerstomankindposedbyhunger,overpopulation,andpollutionandthat
thiscooperationwilleventuallycomefromtheincreasingconvergenceofthecurrentlydistinctivepoliticaland
socialsystems.Inthisconnection,hespecificallyassertsthat,giventheproductiveenergiesoftheAmerican
economy,arevolutionintheUnitedStatesincontrasttoasimilarupheavalintheThirdWorldwouldnotbe

*
"Forallitsmodernization,theSovietUnionstillcontainsaverymassive'dark'populationaspiringtobourgeoisamenitiesontheonehand,
yetimmersedinsocialistrhetoricontheother.Andwithinthispopulationthereisastrongelementof'grudge'crude,primitive,oftenall
toowellfounded,akindoflegendaryforceinitsownrightwhichviewsallprivilegeascorruption,andwhichisdirectedequallyagainst
thepoliticalandmanagerialeliteofthepartyandagainsttheintelligentsia.Here,however,theintelligentsiaisatadisadvantage,foritstill
carriesthetraditionalburdenofguilttowardthepeople,andthelinesofmanipulationareinthehandsoftheparty"(SidneyMonas,
"EngineersorMartyrs:DissentandtheIntelligentsia,"ProblemsofCommunism, SeptemberOctober1968,p.5).

IncriticizingthepersistingbackwardnessofSovietsociety,aconditionwhichtheofficiallyidyllicviewhasignored,Sakharovrevealsthe
extraordinaryfactthatsome45percentofthepopulation,orapproximately110millionSovietcitizens,liveinunderprivilegedconditions.
He comparesthistotheUnitedStateswhere"about25percentofthepopulationisonthevergeofpoverty.Ontheotherhand,the5percent
oftheSovietpopulationthatbelongstothemanagerialgroupisasprivilegedasitscounterpartintheUnitedStates,"implyingaconditionof
considerablesocialinequalityintheSovietUnion.
Sakharov'sobservationisimportantbecausetheattainmentofsocialequalityhaslongbeenamajorSovietclaim.Infact,Sovietstatistics
and,morerecently,sociologicalstudiesconfirmthefactthatinhighereducationthechildrenofwhitecollarofficialshaveconsiderably
greateropportunitiesthandothoseofworkersorofcollectivefarmers.Forexample,inthelate1950s,75percentofMoscowUniversity
studentswerechildrenofofficials20percentand5percentwere,respectively,thechildrenofworkersandofcollectivefarmers.During
thisperiodthepopulationdistributionwasapproximately20percent,48percent,and31percent,respectively(seethecollectivevolume
KulturnaiaRevoliutsia,Moscow,1967,p.151).Considerabledisproportionalsoexistsinlevelsofremuneration,withtheSovietminimum
wagefixedasof1968atapproximately$65permonth.

65
advantageoustotheworkers.Hislongrangevisionfortheemainderofthecenturyinvolvesafourstage
development:Inthefirststagethecommunistcountries,and notablytheSovietUnion,willbecomemore
democratic,overcomingtheStalinistlegacyofsingleparty dictatorshipthesecondstagewillseethe
transformationoftheUnitedStatesandother"capitalist"countriesbyreformers whowilleffectinternalchanges
andadoptapolicyofpeacefulcoexistencethethirdstagewillinvolveamassiveSovietAmericanefforttocope
withtheproblemsoftheThirdWorldandtopromotedisarmamentthefourthstagewillseetheremaining
globalproblemsattackedonthebasisofbroadinternationalcooperation.Sakharov'sviews,evenifsomewhat
Utopian,arenoteworthybecausetheyrevealhowtheworldviewofsomeinthenewSovietintellectual
scientificelitecontrastswiththeofficialperspective.Theirimportance,however,shouldnotbeexaggerated.His
argumentissimplyinaccessiblenotonlytotheoverwhelmingmajorityofliterateSovietpeoplebutalsotothe
majorityofSovietintellectuals.Itmaybeassumedthatwherethereare largeconcentrationsofintellectuals
(Moscow,Leningrad,Kiev,Akademgorodok,Obninsk),unorthodoxviewpointscirculatesomewhatmore
widely,buteventheremuchdependsonthedegreetowhichatanyparticularmomentthegovernmentis
preparedtoapply administrativepressureinordertoenforceatleastformalorthodoxy.Giventheparty's
monopolyofcommunications,theextensiveeffortstoinculcatetheofficialideology,andthegrowingemphasis
onnationalism,thegovernment'sviewoftheworldandofSovietsocietyisstillthebasicsourceofinformation
andinterpretationformostSovietcitizens.

AlternativePaths
ItisinthelightoftheforegoingconsiderationsthatpossiblealternativepathsofSovietpolitical
developmentshouldbeevaluated.Foranalyticalpurposes,thesehavetobereducedtoamanageablenumber
and,accordingly,thediscussionthatfollowswillconcentrateonfiveratherbroadlyconceivedvariants,with
attentionfocusedontheroleofideologyandtheparty.Thefivedevelopmentalvariantscanbecapsuledas(1)
oligarchicpetrifaction,(2)pluralistevolution, (3) technologicaladaptation,(4)militantfundamentalism, and(5)
politicaldisintegration.
Oligarchicpetrifactionwouldinvolvethemaintenanceofthedominant roleofthepartyandthe
retentionoftheessentiallydogmaticcharacteroftheideology.Ineffect,moreofthesame.Neitherthepartynor
theideologywouldbeinaparticularlyrevolutionaryrelationshiptosocietyinstead,themainthrustofthe
relationshipwouldbeforthepartytoretainpoliticalcontroloversocietywithoutattemptingtoimposemajor
innovations.Strongemphasiswouldbeplacedonideologicalindoctrinationandtheconfinementofideological
deviations.Politicalleadershipcouldremaincollective,fortheabsenceofdeliberatelyimposedchangewould
notrequiremajorchoices.Thedomesticresultwouldberulebyanossifiedbureaucracythatwouldpursuea
conservativepolicymaskedbyrevolutionaryslogans.
Pluralistevolutionwouldinvolvethetransformationofthepartyintoalessmonolithicbody,somewhat
liketheYugoslavparty,andtheideologicalerosionofthedogmaticLeninistStalinisttradition.Thepartywould
becomemorewillingtotoleratewithinitsownranksanopenideologicaldialogue,evenferment,anditwould
ceasetoviewitsowndoctrinalpronouncementsasinfallible.Itsrolewouldbemorethatofamoralideological
stimulantthanthatofarulerthestateaswellassocietyitselfwouldbecomethemore importantsourceof
innovationandchange.Becausesomuchoftheparty'shistoryhasbeencontrarytotheabovepattern,inaddition
tosustainedsocialpressurefromkeyeconomicandintellectualgroups,eitherabasicsplitinpartyleadership,or,
paradoxically,astrongleader(likeTito)wouldbenecessarytoconditionpartyofficialdomintoacceptanceof
suchpoliticalandideologicalpluralism.
Technologicaladaptationwouldinvolvethetransformationofthebureaucraticdogmaticpartyintoa
partyoftechnocrats.Primaryemphasiswouldbeonscientificexpertise,efficiency,anddiscipline.Ashas
alreadyhappenedinUlbricht'sEastGermany,thepartywouldbecomposedofscientificexperts,trainedinthe
latesttechniques,capableofrelyingoncyberneticsandcomputersforsocialcontrol,andlookingtoscientific
innovationforthepreservationofSovietsecurityandindustrialgrowth.Nationalismwouldreplaceideological
dogmasasthebasicintegrativeprinciplelinkingsocietyandthestate.Theyounger,moretechnologically
orientedleadersofthemilitaryestablishmentwould,inallprobability,favourthispattern.Politicalleadership,as
inthefirstvariant,couldremaincollective,thoughitwouldprobablyinvolveawidercoalitionofpartystate
militaryeconomicleaders.
Militantfundamentalism wouldinvolvearevivalistefforttorekindleideologicalfavour,whichwould
inturnrequireamorerevolutionaryrelationshipbetweenthepoliticalsystemandsociety.Thenotionof
progressiontowardcommunismwouldhavetobegivennewprogrammaticcontent,andhencepolitically
inducedsocialchangeswouldbenecessary.Inallprobability,thisdevelopmentwouldnecessitatethe
applicationofforcetoovercomebothactualresistanceandsheersocialinertia.EvenifitfellshortofStalinist
methods,theefforttoshakeuptheSovietsystem'srigidlybureaucratizedstructurewouldrequirehighly
centralizedleadership,ideologicalmilitancy,perhapsamorehostileattitudetowardtheoutsideworld,and
somethingalongthelinesofMaoTsetung's"CulturalRevolution."
Politicaldisintegration wouldinvolveinternalparalysisintherulingelite,therisingselfassertiveness
ofvariouskeygroupswithinit,splitsinthearmedforces,restivenessamongtheyoungpeopleandthe
intellectuals,andopendisaffectionamongthenonRussiannationalities.Inthewakeoftheintensifying

66
contradictionbetweenthepoliticalsystemandsociety,thecrisisthatcouldarisewouldbemademoreacuteby
aninadequateeconomicgrowthincapableofsatisfyingpopulardemands.Thepetrifiedideologynolonger
takenseriouslybytheelitewouldbeincapableofprovidingthesystemwithacoherentsetofvaluesfor
concertedaction.
LookingapproximatelyadecadeaheadandusingasaguidethepresentdistributionofpowerinSoviet
society,itwouldappearfromthenatureofthemoreimmediatepoliticaleconomic problemsfacingSoviet
leadershipandfromthegeneralpatternofcontemporarySovietsocialdevelopmentthattheSovietleadership
willseektostrikeabalancebetweenthefirstandthethirdvariants.Thecombinationcomesclosesttosatisfying
eliteinterests,theimperativesofsocialorthodoxy,andtheneedsoftheSovietUnionasaglobalrivalofthe
UnitedStates.
Intheshortrun,developmenttowardapluralist,ideologicallymoretolerantsystemdoesnotseem
likely.Theyears19641969haveevenseenmovementintheoppositedirection.Thepoliticalsystemisnotin
thenearfuturelikelytoelevatetoleadershipamanwiththewillandthepowertodemocratizeSovietsociety,
andthatsocietylacksthecohesionandthegrouppressuresnecessarytoeffectdemocratizationfrombelow.As
theexperienceofCzechoslovakiahasshown,democratizationfrombelowmustbeanorganicprocessthatlinks
theintellectuals,theworkers,andthestudentswithsomesegmentsoftheleadershipinadeliberateeffortto
reformthepoliticalstructureaswellastheeconomicstructure.Moreover,suchaprocessmusteitherdrawona
democratictradition(aswasthecaseinCzechoslovakia)orcreateonebyacceptingthepriorityoflegalnorms
overpoliticalexpediency.ForSovietcommunismthiswouldbetantamount toanewconceptofpolitics.*
Furthermore,theSovietproblemwithnonRussiannationalitiesinhibitsdemocratization:theGreatRussian
majoritywouldinevitablyfearthatdemocratizationmightstimulatethedesireofthenonRussianpeoplesfirst
formoreautonomyandthenforindependence.GiventhethrustofSovietsocialdevelopmentandtheinterestsof
thepresentrulingelite,itisunlikelythataneffectivedemocratizingcoalitioncouldemergeduringthe1970s.
Militantfundamentalismunderaonemandictatorship,thoughperhapssomewhatmoreprobableintheshortrun
thanapluralistevolution,alsowouldhavetoovercomeenormousinertiaandthecollectivestakeoftheparty
oligarchsinpreventingthereappearanceofonemanrule.Pressurestowardsucharulecoulddevelopintheface
ofdomesticupheavaloramajorforeignthreat,butatalentedandeffectivepoliticalleaderwouldhavetobe
available.ThepresentSovietbureaucracyisconstitutedinsuchawayastoweedoutandsnuffoutindividual
talentitisnolongera revolutionarypartyinwhichindividualcourageandresourcefulnessmakefor
advancement.
Nonetheless,thefundamentalistalternativeshouldnotbedismissedoutofhand,especiallyifit
becomestheonlyalternativetopoliticaldisintegrationresulting fromthepetrifactionofthesystemasawhole.
Protractedinternaldecayasaresultoftheleadership'sinabilitytocometogripswithcurrentproblems,
continuedfailuretocatchupwiththeUnitedStatesinthescientificcompetition,andinternalthreatstonational
unitycouldinacontextofincreasingideologicalindifferencecombinewithaninternationalsecuritythreatto
sparkafundamentalistspasmfromasectionoftheelite.Suchspasmsarecharacteristicofpoliticalfaithsintheir
decline.
ThealternativesoffundamentalismorofdisintegrationcouldbeprecipitatedbyaSinoSovietwar.
SuchawarwouldinevitablyimposemajorstrainsontheSovietsystem.EvenifwonrapidlybytheSovietside,
itwouldentailmajoreconomiccostsandcouldeveninvolvelengthypostwarcounterguerrillaactivities.Apro
tractedwarwouldconstituteitselfadirectdefeatfortheSovietregime,anditisalmostcertainthattheregime
wouldbetoppledfrompowerbydissatisfiedelementsintherulingcircles.Whateveritsoutcome,awarofthis
magnitudewouldbecertaintotriggerhighlymilitantandvolatilefeelingswithintheSovietUnion,creating
pressuresonbehalfofonemanruleorsimplypullingtheregimeapart.
Giventheconditionsprevailing intheearly1970s,oligarchic petrifactionwouldbetheprobable
consequenceofcontinuedrulebythepresentmajorityoftheagingupperpartybureaucracy(theaverageageof
CentralCommitteememberswasoversixtyin1969,makingthemprobablytheoldestpoliticalleadersinthe
world,exceptforthoseoftheVaticanandMaoandhisassociates),oftheoldtimearmymarshals(someof
whomhavemorepartysenioritythanthetoppoliticalrulers),andofthepartyideologuesThiscoalition
representsnotonlythepoliticalbutalsothetopsocialeliteoftheSovietUnion,inthesensethatitspowergives
itprerogativesequivalenttothoseassociatedundercapitalismwithwealth:luxury,convenience,andprestige.
Likeanyrulingclass,ittendstobecomeconservativeandresistanttochangesthatthreatenitsposition.
MoreoverandthisisaveryimportantconsiderationtheSovietmiddleclassishighlybureaucratizedand
consistsalmostentirelyofstateofficialswhoareratherconservativeintheirpoliticalandsocialmoresandare
onlyonegenerationremovedfromtheirproletarianorpeasantorigins.Thisclassdoesnotwantmajorpolitical
change,thoughitdoesdesiremorematerialgoods.Itprovidestheunderpinningfortheconservatismofthe
leadership.
TheupperstratumoftheSovietprofessionalandscientificelitehas,however,becometoobroad,too

*
AsoneCzechscholarobservedincommenting ontheCzechexperiencewithStalinism,"Oneofthepossiblemethodsofpreventingthe
recurrenceofpoliticaltrialsinanyformisachangeintheconceptofpolitics,withwhichisconnectedthebirthofanewpoliticalsystem.I
haveinmindsuchaconceptofpoliticsaswouldnotcontaintheelementsof,oranassuredbasisfor,displaysofillegalityofthekindthat
happenedmostfrequentlyintheperiodofthepoliticaltrials"(K.Kaplan,"ThoughtsaboutthePoliticalTrials,"NovaMysl, No.8,1968).

67
welleducated,andtoonationalisticallyambitioustobesatisfiedwithapatternthatmerelypreservesthe status
quo. Thoughconcernedwithpoliticalstability,itisalsoawareofthedomesticandinternationalimperativesfor
socialandscientificinnovation.Inrecentyearsthisstratumhasgainedincreasingaccesstothedecisionmakers
andthusparticipatesinformallyinaprocessofgroupbargaining,especiallyinpolicyareasrequiringexpertise.
TheorganoftheSovietAcademyofScienceshasnotedthat"inrecenttimes,thenumberofscientistscalledon
toparticipateintheworkofthegovernmentalapparatus,evenatthehighestlevels,hasincreased.Theyshould
becalledonmoreoftentoorganizeproductionandtodirectplanningintheeconomicsphere."33 Their
innovativeinfluence,addedtotheincreasinglywidespreadpoliticalappreciationoftheimportanceof
scientificinnovation,tonationalfeelingsofrivalrywiththeUnitedStates,andtothenationalistandsecurity
aspirationsoftheyounger,morescientificallyorientedmilitaryleaders,isalreadystimulatingpressuresforafu
sionofthefirst(oligarchic petrifaction)andthird(technologicaladaptation)variants,inanattempttoconstructa
novelkindof"technetroniccommunism."*
TheexampleofUlbricht'sEastGermanymaybecomeparticularlyrelevant.ThoughinRumania
explorationsofthescientificrevolution'ssignificancehaveledsomecommuniststosuggestthatthisrevolution
requiresanewtheoreticalframeworkbasedontheprincipleofuniversality,34 Ulbrichthasattemptedtocombine
scientificinnovationwithstrictadherencetotheLeninistStalinistideologicaltradition.Politicalleadershiphas
remainedhighlycentralized,andideologicaldissenthasbeenfirmlysuppressed.Atthesametime,Ulbricht,
perhapsmorethananyothercommunistleader,hasemphasizedthat"thedevelopmentofthe socialistsystem,
abovealltheimplementationoftheeconomicsystemasawhole,istoagrowingextentamatterofscientific
leadership....Weorientourselvesontheconsciousscientificcontrolofcomplexprocessesandsystemsbythe
peopleandforthepeople.Wemakeuseofcyberneticsinthissense."35
Duringthesecondhalfofthe1960s,EastGermanleadershipmadeanintenseefforttorationalize
economicmanagementinordertocombinelowerlevelinitiativewithaneffectivesystemofcontrolsand
coordination.TheSeventhPartyCongress(April 1967)setitselfthetaskofdevelopingageneralconceptionof
therelationsbetweenthevariouspartsystemswiththeeconomicsystemasawholemorethananyother
communistcountry,EastGermanyutilizedcybernetics,operationalresearch,andelectronicdataprocessing.
Twoyearslater,attheApril1969CentralCommitteePlenum,PolitburomemberKurtHagerproudlyreported
andherepeatedlyusedthisformulathatEastGermanywasnotonlyideologicallysoundbut"correctlypro
grammed."
Inlinewiththis"correctprogramming,"thepartyhasemphasizedtheimportanceofexpertiseamongits
members,36 andtheeducationalsystemhasbeenreformedinordertolinkscienceclosely withindustry. Bythe
late1960s,EastGermanyhadtransformeditselffromoneofthemostwarravagedsocietiesintothemost
economicallyandideologicallyadvancedscienceorientedcommuniststate.Afterafiftyyearlapse,the
combinationofPrussiandiscipline,Germanscientificefficiency,andLeninistStalinistideologyhasthusagain
madeGermancommunismamodelforitseasternneighbors.
IntheSovietUnion,however,otherconsiderationswillinalllikelihoodimpedethepaceofasimilar
"technologization"oftheSovietpoliticalsystem.Foronething,theSovietUnionisamuchbiggercountry,is
moredifficulttointegrate,andhasmanymoreareasofsocioeconomicbackwardnesstoovercome.Inaddition,
overthelastfiftyyearstherulingpartyhasdevelopeditsowntraditionsandideologicalstyle,andthoughit
favorstheacquisitionoftechnicalskillsbyitsofficials,itislikelytocontinuetoresistthedevelopmentofan
essentiallytechnicalorientationamongitsmembers,sincethatwoulddilutetheimportanceattachedto
ideology.37 Moreover,perhapsintensifiedintheyearstocomebytheSinoSovietdispute,theroleofthesecurity
factorinpolicymakingandofthemilitaryinthepoliticalprocessmighttendtoincrease.Indeed,ifthesecurity
problembecomesmoreurgentandSovietleadershipremainscollective,itwillbecomeincreasinglydifficultto
denythemilitarydirectparticipationinthepoliticaldecisionmakingprocess.Inthatcase,thefusionofthefirst
andthethirdvariants(strivingtocombineideologicalrigiditywithtechnologicalexpertise)wouldalsoinvolve
thetransformationduringthe1970softhepresentcommunistpartydictatorshipintoa communistpraetorian

*
Thisprocesswouldprovidethepoliticalexpressionfortheimpressivegrowthinboththeoverallnumberofspecialistsengagedin
scientificactivityandservices(includingthosewithspecializedsecondaryeducation)andinthenumberofthosemembersofthepolitical
elitewhohavehadextensivebackgroundsintechnicalandscientificfields.Betweentheyears1950and1966theformergrewfrom714,000
to2,741,000 (SciencePolicyintheUSSR,p.679)GeorgeFischerhasgatheredevidenceshowing thatthelatterarebecomingthe
predominantgroupamongtheyoungermembersoftheCentralCommitteeoftheCPSU(TheSovietSystemandModernSociety, NewYork,
1968,especiallypp.12534)TechnicalcompetenceisaswidespreadintheSovietpoliticaleliteaslegalbackgroundisinitsAmerican
counterpart.

Underthesereformsuniversitiesandpolytechnicalschoolshavebeentransformedintonew"sciencecombines"directlylinkedwith
industrialenterprises.Forexample,theTechnicalUniversityofDresdenworksjointlywiththenearbyRadeb'ergcomputerfactory,andother
institutionsoflearninghavebeensimilarlylinkedwiththebasicindustrialeffortsoftheircitiesorregions.Inthisreformamajoreffortwas
madetoobtainstudentparticipation,andstudentsaresaidtohavemadeanumberofconstructiveproposalsalongtheabovelines.
Atthesametime,MarxistLeninistindoctrinationhascontinuedtobeassignedhighpriorityintheeducationalprocess,butstresshasbeen
placedonthenecessitytocombineitwithscientificsocialforecasting:"Itisnecessarytoimparttotheleadershippersonnelofthesocialist
stateacomplexknowledgewhichenablesthemtocarryoutthepartyresolutionswithahighdegreeofqualitythismustbedoneonthebasis
ofthesociallongrangeforecast,inteamworkwiththeSocialistEconomicManagementInstitute,theSocialSciencesInstitute,the'Karl
Marx'PartyCollege,andotherinstitutions"(aspeechbyErichHonecker,memberofthePolitburoandSecretaryoftheCentralCommittee
oftheGermanSocialistUnityParty,April29,1969).Honecker'sspeechwasremarkableforitsemphasisonthetechnetronicfeaturesofa
modernsocietyandforitsrelativeneglectoftheideologicalquestion.

68
oligarchy.*

TheProblemofVitality
Thequestionthenis:Will suchapoliticaldevelopmentfacilitatetheresolutionoftheeconomicand
politicaldilemmasconfrontingtheSovietUnion?Theanswertothisquestionisboundtobeevenmore
speculativethantheprognosisitself.Onthewhole,itwouldappeardoubtfulwhetheranattempttocombine
ideologicalorthodoxywithtechnologicalinnovation,perhapsbuttressedbyincreasingrelianceonnationalism
andthemilitary,willcreateasettingpropitioustointellectualandscientificcreativity.Suchanattemptis more
likelytoproduceinternalcontradictions,withtheideologuesandthetechnocratsoftenpullinginopposite
directions.Thiswillbeespeciallytrueasconcernsthecomplexissueofeconomicdecentralization,increasingly
recognizedasnecessaryforeconomicreasons,butneverthelessfearedforpoliticalreasons.Theresultwillbe
eithertemporarycompromises(suchashavebeencharacteristicofBrezhnev)ordrasticpolicyshiftsfromone
emphasistotheother.Theconsequenttensionwillwidenthegapbetweenthepoliticalsystemandsocietythe
politicalsystemwillappearunresponsivetointernaldilemmas,andincreasingsocialpressurewillbegenerated
foramorefundamentalreassessmentofthecontemporaryrelevanceoftheideologicaland institutionalcharacter
oftheSovietstate.
Accordingly,itmaybeexpectedthatthe1970swillwitnessthespreadtotheSovietUnionof
convulsionssimilartothosethatSpain,Yugoslavia,Mexico,andPolandbegantoundergointhelate1960s.The
Sovietstudentpopulationwillhavedoubledduringthe1960s(itincreasedbyseventysevenpercentbetween
1958and1965),anditisunlikelythattheSovietUnionwillaltogetheravoidstudentunrest.Thelate1970swill
probablyseethesexualrevolutionspreadtothemoreurbanSovietcenters,andthepartyideologueswillnotfind
iteasytoaccommodatewithintheprevailingofficialmores.Thesefactorscouldcreateabroadersocialbasisfor
thecurrentlyisolatedideologicaldissentersand,togetherwiththelikelygrowthintheselfassertivenessofthe
nonRussianintelligentsia,makeformorevisiblesocialandpoliticaltensions.GiventheauthoritarianSovietset
ting,aredflagspontaneouslyflownbyMoscowstudentsovertheiruniversitywill havemuchgraverpolitical
symbolismthanthesameflagflutteringoverColumbiaortheSorbonne.
Butitwillnotbeuntiltheearly1980sthatthefirstfullypostStalinpoliticalleadershipwillenterthe
politicalarena.Anaspiringfortyfiveyearold leaderin1980willhavebeenonlyeighteenatthetimeofStalin's
deathandtwentyonewhendeStalinizationactuallybeganintheSovietUnion.Thoughhisgenerationwill
probablyfinditsaccesstopowerblockedbypoliticalleaderstenoreventwenty yearsolder(thePolyanskis,
Shelepins,Semichastnys,Tolstikovsoftoday),itwillpressforinfluencefromtheechelonsimmediatelybelow
thatoftheCentralCommittee.Giventhemorevolatiledomesticandglobalsettinginwhichitwillhave
matured, givenitshighereducation,giventheprobablymoreflexiblecharacteroftheadjoiningEastern
Europeanstates,itisquitepossiblethattheemergingpoliticalelitewillbelesscommittedtothenotionthat
socialdevelopmentrequiresintenseconcentrationofpoliticalpower.
Nevertheless,eventhenevolutionintoapluralistsystemislikelytoberesistedbytheentrenched
politicaloligarchy.Theintroductionofpoliticalpluralismwillatsomepointrequireadeliberatedecisiontoopen
theSovietUniontocompetitiveideas,toleteachSovietcitizenreadwhathewants,toreducethelevelofthe
party'sideologicalcontrol,todecentralizedecisionmakingandthustosharepowerwithsociety:ineffect,a
majortransformationofthesystemasawhole.Unintendedconsequencesofeconomictechnological
adjustmentswillnotsufficetobringaboutsignificantpoliticalchange.AsinYugoslaviaorpre1968
Czechoslovakia,atsomepointthepoliticalelitemustdecidetoembarkondeliberatepoliticalreforms.
Thus,barringanupheavalresultingfrominternalparalysisanddramaticallybringingabouteither
socialdemocracyor,morelikely,arevivalistdictatorcapableofcontrollinginternaldissentthemoreprobable
patternforthe1980sisamarginal shifttowardthecombinationofthesecond(pluralistevolution)andthird
(technologicaladaptation)variants:limitedeconomicpoliticalpluralismandintenseemphasisontechnological
competence,withinthecontextofastillauthoritariangovernment representingacoalitionoftheupperechelons
oftheprincipalinterestgroups.Thiscouldbethebeginningofthereturntothe
WesternMarxisttradition,butonlyaslow andcautiousbeginningatbest. Itwouldthereforeberashto
expectinthenearfutureafundamentalrevisionoftheSovietattitudetowardtheworld.Therewillbechange,
*
ThisviewisheldalsobysomeYugoslavobservers.Thus,V.Stanovcic,writingintheYugoslavCentralCommitteeweekly Komunist
(September26,1968),hasarguedthatthepresentSovietsystemhasprovenitselfunabletoliberalizegraduallyandthatasaconsequenceit
willverylikely"logicallydevelopintoaBonapartistformofrule,withmanagerialmilitaristgroupsassumingtheroleof'lineprescribers'
and'organizers'ofsociety."

ItmightberelevantatthisjuncturetoputtorestthepopularanalogyfrequentlymadebetweentheevolutionoftheFrenchRevolutioninto
abourgeoisdemocracyandtheallegedlysimilarpoliticalconsequencesofthe embourgeoisement ofSovietsociety.Theanalogyoverlooks
severalsalientdifferencesbetweentheserevolutions.TheFrenchRevolutiontookplaceinasettingshapedbyarationalist,idealistic
intellectualtraditionandineffectiveabsolutism.TheRussianRevolutionwasprecededbyincreasingintellectualfanaticismandutopianism,
reactingtotheabsolutistandautocraticpoliticalsetting.TheFrenchRevolutionwaseffectedbyanidealisticandhighlydisorganized
professionalmiddleclasstheBolshevikRevolutionbyahighlyprofessional,ideological,anddisciplinedparty.TheFrenchrevolutionaries
didnothavethetimeduringtheirrelativelyshortstayinpowertoreorganizeFrenchsocietyfundamentallytheBolsheviks,particularly
underStalin,rippedapartandrewovetheentiresocialfabric,whileeffectingafarreachingindustrialandurbanrevolution.TheFrench
middleclasswasaninnovativeandintellectuallyrestlessclassthenewSovietmiddleclassisVictorian,conservative,andorthodox.Last
butnotleast,thelegateeoftheFrenchRevolution,Napoleon,wasdefeatedStalinwasvictorious.

69
butitwillbeslow.Moreover,theelementofrivalrywiththeUnitedStates,reflectingthevestigiallegacyof
ideologyandreinforcedbymiddleclassurbannationalism,islikelytocontinuetobedominant,evenif
temperedbygrowingSovietrecognitionthatincreasedUnitedStatesSovietcollaborationisdictatedbythebasic
imperativesofhumansurvival.TheSinoSovietconflictmayalsohaveadoubleandcontradictoryeffect:while
intensifyingtheSovietdesireforasecureandpeacefulwesternflank,itislikelytoheightenSovietsecurity
concerns,andthusstrengthenthedomesticpositionofthemoreconservativeandnationalistelements.
ThiscombinationoferodingideologyandintensifyingnationalismmakesitunlikelythattheSoviet
Unionwillsoonbecomeinvolvedeitherinmilitantlyadvancingthecauseofworldrevolutionorinactively
promotingapolicyofglobalcooperation.Amorelikelyresultisanambiguouspatterndeterminedbyshort
rangeexpediencyratherthanbyabroad,longrangeperspective.Inthatcontext,preciselybecausetheSoviet
Uniondoesnotappearlikelytoexperienceinthenearfutureadomesticphaseofopenintellectualcreativityand
experimentation,itsattractivenessasthesocioeconomicmodelforcontemporarycommunism,onecapableof
intellectuallyandmorallycaptivatingtheimaginationofmankind,willprobablycontinuetodecline.

4.SectarianCommunism
Inourageauniversalideologicalmovementcanonlybeapluralistone.Andifitistobepluralistthat
is,responsivetorapidlychanging,differentiatedglobalconditionsandtheresultingvolatileintellectualmood
itsideologicalcontentmustbehighlygeneralized,moreethicalthanpractical,andmorehumanisticthan
nationalistic.Ineffect,anecumenicalcommunismwouldhavetobeadeliberatelypluralistcommunism.An
internationalpluralistcommunismwouldinturninevitablygeneratepressuresforinternallypluralistcommunist
parties.
Pluralistcommunismdoesnotexistandisunlikelytoappear.Communistuniversalismhasfallen
victimtocommunistdogmatism.Thatdogmatismwascompatiblewithuniversalismonlyaslongascommunism
wasanabstractattempttodefineglobalconditionsintheearlystagesofindustrializationandfounditspolitical
expressionindisparategroupsofintellectualsseekingpower.Oncetheseintellectualshadseizedpowerin
differentstates,dogmatismbegantomergewiththenaturalpropensityofthenewrulerstoseetheworldthrough
the prismoftheirownnationalpowerinterests.Dogmatism,nolongeroperatingonthelevelofuniversal
abstractionbutonthatofnationalpractice,facilitatedthetransformationofcommunismintosectarianismwith
eachsectinsistingthatitsperspectivewasthetrulyuniversaloneandestablishing internal partydisciplineon
thatbasis.
TheSovietUnionledintransforminguniversalcommunismintosectariancommunism,butthe process
developednaturallyamongallcommunistpartiesinpowerandevenamongthemoreestablishedcommunist
partiesoutofpower.Asaresultofconflictingclaims,mutualexcommunications,occasionalpatchedup
compromises,andactiveandlatentconflicts,contemporarycommunismformsamosaicalmostasvariedasthe
nationsofmankind.38 Farfromhelpingtoendtheintellectualfragmentationoftheglobe,sectariancommunism
intensifiesit.

Phases
Fourbroadphasescanbediscernedintheevolutionofcommunismasaninternationalmovementsincethe
creationofthefirstcommuniststateintheSovietUnion.Thefirstphase,correspondingroughlytothe1920sand
the1930sbutparticularlytothe1930s,whichwitnessedtheideologicalrestructuringofSovietsocietycanbe
calledthatof transplantation.AnessentiallyWesterndoctrine,respondingtothespecificconditionsofWestern
capitalistindustrialization,wastransplantedtotheRussiansettingandredefinedtomeetthepoliticalneedsof
thatsetting.Thisinvolveddomesticatinganddogmatizingtheimportedandreadaptedideology.
DomesticationmeantthatformulationsderivedfromspecificRussianconditions,asdefinedfirstby
LeninandevenmoresobyStalin,increasinglypermeatedthe doctrineasaresult,purelyparochial
considerationsweredogmaticallyuniversalized.Dogmatizationwaslargelytheconsequenceoftheprimitive,
autocraticsettingintowhichMarxismwastransplanted,39 ofthearbitrarypersonaltraitsofthetopideologues,
andofthepowerneedsofthenewcommunistelitethatfounditselfwithoutwhatMarxsawasthefoundationfor
socialistrulethesolidproletarianbasethatcapitalistdevelopmenthadcreatedintheWest.
Thesecondphase,theactive universalization oftheSovietspecific,correspondedapproximatelytothe
1930sandparticularlythe1940s.ItsawtheStalinizationofforeigncommunistparties,theforcibleexportofthe
SovietversionofcommunismtoEasternEurope,andthespontaneousexpansionofthemoreorientalLeninist
adaptationofMarxismtoChina,Korea,andVietnam.CentralizedbyMoscow,internationalcommunism
imitatedtheSovietexperiencewithouttakingintoconsiderationconditionsprevailingwithinthedifferent
nations.Indeed,Sovietinsistenceonacommonmoldbecamemoreintensepreciselybecauseamajorgap
existedbetweenideologyandlocalconditions.
Thisstateofaffairscouldnotlongendure,andnationalcommunistleadershipgroupscameunder
growingdomesticpressuresforadjustmentsintimethenationalleadersthemselvesbegantoseeadivergence
betweentheirownneedsandinterestsandSovietprescriptionsanddemands.Theresultwasthethirdphase,the
particularizationofinternationalcommunismduringthe1950s.Itsaw,firstofall,thecompleteselfassertionof
theYugoslavleadership(inlargemeasurebecauseithadcometopowerthroughitsownefforts),thepartialself

70
assertionofthePolishleadership,thebeginningsofsuchselfassertionbytheRumanians,and,mostimportant
ofall,theincreasinginclinationoftheChineseleadershipbothtopracticeitsownversionofcommunismandto
generalizethesignificanceandrelevanceofitsexperienceforotherrevolutionarycommunistparties.
The1960saccordinglywitnessedanewstageinthehistoryofinternationalcommunism.Itwas
dominatedbyopentensionbetweentheprocessbywhichdoctrinewasrelativizedandtheprocessbywhich
specificpointsofviewweremadeabsolute.Forthesakeofunity,Sovietleadershipseemedatfirstwillingto
tolerateincreasingdiversityintheearly1960sitformallyabandonedbothitsclaimtoleadershipandits
insistenceontheneedforacommongeneralline.40 Ashiftintheoppositedirection,however,tookplaceinthe
secondhalfofthedecadeitwasperhapsgeneratedbythefearthatrelativizationwasthefirststageinthe
erosionoftheideology,andthattheresultingecumenicalunitywouldbedevoidofanypoliticalsubstance.
Czechoslovakpoliticaldevelopmentsin1968andthepersistentChinesechallengewereinallprobabilitythe
catalyststhatprecipitatedtheSovietleaders'turntowardsectarianism:thereassertionoftheabsoluteuniversality
ofcertaincommonlaws,largelyasdefinedbytheSovietleadersthemselves.Theinescapablepricethathadto
bepaidwasthatthosecommunistpartiesthatcouldasserttheirowndivergentpositionwoulddosoandwould
havetodosointhecontextofmutualideologicaldenunciations.Particularism,insteadofbeingastagetoward
ecumenism,wasthustranslatedduringthe1960sintothefourthandcurrentphase, sectarianism.
Communistunityasoftheearly1970sisthusdevoidofanysubstantivemeaning.* Westerncommunist
partiesfortifytheirappealsforpopularsupportbyincreasinglydenyingthattheSovietUnionoffersarelevant
model.Indeed,theItalianandFrenchcommunistleadershavecometorealizethattheirpartieswillsucceedonly
to thedegreethattheysuccessfullyconvincethevotersthataFrenchoranItaliancommunistgovernmentwould
bedifferentfromtheSovietmodel.DespitepersistingSovietpressures,therulingEasternEuropeancommunist
partiescontinuetomakequietadjustmentstodomesticnecessities,andinsodoingtheyincreasinglydiverge
fromtheSovietmodel.TheChineseCommunistPartynotonlypracticesitsownbrandof communismbut
explicitlydeniesthattheSovietpartyisacommunistpartyindeed,itchargesthattheSovietUnionisinthe
processofrestoringcapitalism.
TheSovietdecisionin1968tosnuffoutCzechoslovakdemocratizationwasparticularlyfatefulfor
internationalcommunismHadtheSovietleaderspermittedtheliberalizationoftheessentiallyStalinistmodelof
theCzechoslovakcommuniststate, amajorandvitallyimportantstepinthedemocratizationofEuropean
communismwouldhavebeentaken.ThedemocratizationofCzechoslovakiawouldhavesignificantlyaffected
theothercommuniststates,includingtheSovietUnion,eventuallygeneratingsimilartendencieswithinthem.
ThiswastheprimaryreasonfortheSovietdecisiontointerveneinCzechoslovakia.RogerGaraudy,amember
ofthePolitburooftheFrenchCommunistPartyatthetime,wascorrectinstatingthattheSovietleaders
instinctivelyfearedthedemocratizationofCzechoslovakiapreciselybecausetheyhavebeensocommittedtothe
Stalinistmodelofsocialismthatanyattempttoadjustsocialismtotheconditionsofmoreadvancedsocietieshas
cometobeviewedasamenacetosocialismitself.Democratizationwentagainstthegrainoftheirentiretraining
andoutlooktheoccupationofCzechoslovakiawasthereforenotanerrorbutalogicalconsequenceofthe
Stalinistsystem.41
ThespectacleofademocraticCzechoslovakia,ruled byacommunistpartytolerantofindividual
freedom(freetravel,speech,press),wouldhavehadanenormousimpactonWesterncommunistparties.It
wouldhaveencouragedthesepartiestoeffecttheirowninternaldemocratizationmorerapidly,anditwouldhave
madethemmoreappealingtotheirnationalelectorates.Thiswouldhavemeantamajorturningpointinthe
historyofcommunismitself.ItwouldhavecreatedinthemoreadvancedWestademocratizingcommunism
preoccupiedwithhumanisticallyharnessingthetechnetronicchallengeitwouldhaveledtoamilitant,more
revolutionarycommunism,violentlyreactingagainstthebackwardnessandsocialinadequacyoftheconditions
prevailingintheThirdWorld.UnwillingnesstotolerateCzechoslovakiahasthusmeantnotonlythattheSoviet
Unionwillforsometimepersistinacongealed,highlybureaucratizedmold,butthattherewillbemany
sectariancommunisms,eachclaimingthatitexpressesauniversallyvalidmessage.

AssimilatedCommunisms
The 1970sandthe1980sarehencelikelytoseeincreasinglydiversifiedcommunismsmergingwith
*
FailuretoperceivethisrealitystillpromptssomeWesternconservativescholarstospeakof"theforeignpolicyofcommunism,"andtobe
criticaloftheviewthatcommunistideologyisnolongercapableofmobilizingunifiedglobalsupport.See HansMorgenthau,ANew
ForeignPolicyfortheUnitedStates, NewYork,1969,p.32.Presumablyforthesamereason,ProfessorMorgenthauarguedin1965thatthe
VietnamwarwouldbringtheSovietsandtheChinesetogether.

SovietspokesmenhaveoccasionallyarguedthatademocraticCzechoslovakiawouldhaveceasedtobeacommunistCzechoslovakia,that
thecommunistpartywouldhavebeenputoutofpower.Thisisdoubtful,thoughitcannotbeeitherprovenordisproven.Nonetheless,itis
unlikelythatotherpoliticalpartiescouldhaveactuallyappearedinCzechoslovakia,forneitherthesocialbasisnorthepersonnelforthem
appearstohaveexisted.Indeed,asof1968thepredominantattitudeamongtheCzechsandSlovakswasinfavorofworkingwithinand
throughamoredemocratic,pluralistcommunistpartythatwouldhavebeencommunistwithoutbeingLeninistStalinist.
TheSovietargument,however,isdeservingofnotebecauseitrevealssomethingelse.Thechargeistantamounttoanadmissionthat
democracyandtheSovietversionofcommunismarestillincompatible.Itthusreflectsnotonlyadeeplyingrainedbureaucraticsuspicionof
thepopularwillbutthepersistentincapacityofSovietcommunistofficialstorelatemeaningfullytothecontemporarypreoccupationwith
politicalandsocialequality,tothecontemporarysearchforanewhumanismrelevanttothe"scientifictechnologicalrevolution,"which
communiststhemselvesadmitthattheyhavetendedtoneglect(seep.152, supra).

71
specificlocalconditionswhilefadingaspartofaninternationalmovementandauniversalideology.InEastern
Europethismightmeantheappearanceofsomeregimesthatwouldmoreappropriatelyqualifyforthelabel
"socialfascist"thancommunistthatis,rulingpartiesthatreinforcetheirowndogmatismbyforcingfromtheir
ranksthosewhoinanywaytendtodeviatefromthenorm.Intenselynationalistic,themiddleandupperechelons
oftheirelitewouldbecomposedofsociallyandpoliticallyconservativefirstgenerationmiddleclassofficials
whohavevaguelyinternalizedtheofficialideologyespeciallythebeliefintheparamountcyofthestate
ruling inanalliancewithanideologicallyneutral,technologicallyexpertclassdisdainfulofthemore"old
fashioned"intellectualhumanists,andsupportedbythemilitary.InadditiontotheSovietUnion,EastGermany
andperhapsPolandandBulgariaarelikelytoapproximatetheabove"socialfascist"category.*
Theseregimes,however,arenotlikelytobestable.Therulingelitessufferfromincreasingcynicism
andtendtobemoreandmorefragmentedcliques,intrigues,andpersonalfeudsdominatetheinternalpolitical
processes,whichstilllackdefinedconstitutionalprocedures.Societiesarebecomingmorerestlessunderexisting
politicalrestraintsandarefearfullesttheirsystemsproveinsufficientlyinnovativeintechnologicalareas.
Moreover,a newandeverlargergenerationofstudentsisbeginningtoleavetheuniversitiesandtolayclaimto
power.Theoutburstsof1968arelikelytoberepeatedinthe1970s.Shouldtheyoccurinasettinginwhich
WesternEuropeexertsasocialattractionforfrustratedEasternEuropeans,andinwhichthereispolitical
weaknessanddivisioninMoscow,thenextwaveofEasternEuropeanunrestcouldbeexplosiveonaregional,
andnotjustnational,scale.
InYugoslaviathemainsourceofuncertaintyforthefutureisthepossibilityofdissensionamongthe
variousnationalities,especiallyafterTito'sdeath.Thatdissensioncouldleadtoamilitarycoupdesignedto
preservethestate,andSovietleadershipwouldthenbelikelytomakeamajorefforttoimproverelationswith
suchapraetorianYugoslavregime.Ifthatdangerwhichisquitereal issurmountedbyacombinationof
politicalskillandcontinuedeconomicgrowth,Yugoslaviawillcontinuetoevolvetowardamorepluralist
patternandtocultivateclosercontactswiththeWestnodoubtincludingsomethinglikeassociatestatusinthe
EuropeanCommonMarket.Itmayevenbegintoexperimentwithmultipartyelections,anditislikelytobeless
andlessdoctrinaireabouttheclassicalissueof stateversusprivateownership. Yugoslavtheoreticianshave
alreadyarguedpubliclythatamultipartysystemisanecessarymechanismforavoidingthepolitical
degenerationinherentinthecommunistpartypowermonopoly.Theyhavewarnedthat"nothingissoirrational
asaclosedrationalsystemwhichdoesnotallowotherideasandcontraryviewstolive,whichdoesnotpermit
anyintellectualunrest."42
TheexampleprovidedbysuchaYugoslaviawouldbeattractivetothemoredevelopedEastern
Europeanstates, suchasCzechoslovakiaandHungary,andeventuallytothecurrentlymostindependentminded
memberoftheEasternbloc,Rumania.Theformerarelikelytocontinuequietlypursuingtheroadofdemoc
ratizationfromwithin,eventuallyheadingtowardindependenceRumaniaislikelytoconsolidateits
independencebyincreasingthescopeofpopularparticipationinthecountry'ssocialandpoliticallife.Allthree
countriesincreasinglyappreciatethedesirabilityofsubstitutingamixedeconomyforthehighlycentralized
Sovietmodel.Moreover,Czechoslovaksociologistshaverecentlybeendrawingattentiontothetransformation
oftheirownsocietyintooneinwhichtheintelligentsia,"thefastestgrowinggroupinsociety,"isplayingthe
decisiverole.Intheirview,thisnecessarilycompelsaredefinitionoftheconceptof"thedictatorshipofthe
proletariat."43 Hungariansociologists,discussingtheimplicationsoftheincreasinglydecentralizedHungarian
economicmodelandofasimilarincreaseintheHungarianintelligentsia,havealsocalledforaredefinitionof
socialisminthedirectionof"comprehensivesocialreforms,includingbroadsectionsofsociallife(politicaland
culturalaswell)."44
Moreover,theEasternEuropeanstatesfearthatscientificobsolescencemaybethepricethattheywill
havetopayforremainingtoocloselyassociatedwithanEasternblocandforbeingcutofffromextensive
contactswiththeWest.(Thesefearsarenotgroundless.SeeTable10.)ThisfearissharedevenbyEastGer
many,whosetechnologicaldevelopmentisincreasinglyturningittowardWesternmarkets,withtheresultthat
theregime'stechnologicalsuccessisintensionwithitspoliticalorientation.
IntheWestthebureaucratizedandideologicallysterilecommunismoftheStalinistvarietyislikelyto
continuetofadein

TABLE10. INVENTIONSREGISTEREDPER100,000 INHABITANTS(1964)

Country No.ofInventions
Belgium 164
Austria 147
Denmark 131
Norway 121

*
ItisinterestingandrelevanttonoteherethatCentralEuropeanfascismwasprimarilyanurbandevelopment.Forexample,in1937,50per
centofthemembersoftheHungarianArrowCrosspartywereindustrialworkers,12percentwereprofessionalandselfemployedpeople,
andonly8percentwerepeasants.Atthesametimeslightlyoverhalfthepopulationwaspeasant(IstvanDeak,"Hungary,"in TheEuropean
Right, EugeneWeberandHansRogger,eds.,Berkeley,1965,pp.39697)

InthemoredevelopedpartsofYugoslaviathereisalreadystrongsentimentonbehalfofwideningtheprivatesectorintheeconomy.The
groupwiththestrongestantiprivatepropertyfeelingsisthatofthewhitecollarworkerswiththeleasteducation(seethepublicopinionpoll
publishedintheZagreb Vjesnik,December24,1968).

72
Czechoslovakia 52
Hungary 20
Poland 10
Rumania 7
Source:Burks,TechnologicalInnovationandPoliticalChangeinCommunistEasternEurope, p.12.

sociopoliticalrelevance.Therevolutionarystandardhasalreadypassedintothehandsofmoreideologically
volatileandactivistgroupsasaresult,theestablishedcommunistpartiesarelikelytoseekpoliticalrelevanceby
minimizingtheirorthodoxyandemphasizingtheiracceptanceofconstitutionalprocedures.* Theirfundamental
problemislikelytocontinue tobethattheyhavenoattractivemodelofamodernhighlysophisticatedand
pluralistcommunistpowertoofferasanexampletotheirelectoratesinaddition,thesignificanceoftheir
programmaticmessageisfurtherreducedbythefactthattheWesthasprecededthecommuniststatesin
experiencingthesocialandtechnologicalrevolution.
Thus,bothinordertoexploitthetensionsconnectedwiththetransitionfromtheindustrialtothe
technetronicsocietyandto providethebasisforeffectivepoliticalaction,theFrenchandtheItaliancommunist
partieshavebeenforcedindilutetheirorthodoxy.Someoftheirtheoreticianshavealreadyemphasizedtheneed
toredefinethecommunistpartyasanaltogethernewpartythatwouldincludetheentireleft,thatwouldnotbe
ideologicalinthestrictsenseoftheword,andthatwouldcertainlynotbeLeninistinitsbureaucraticstructure.
Totheextentthatthesereformistshavebeenthwartedbyconservativepartyleaders,thecommunistpartiesin
theWestremainbothsectarianandpoliticallyisolatedtotheextentthatthereformistshavesucceededin
gainingsupport,thecommunistpartiesintheWesthavemovedtowarddilutingtheirnineteenthcentury
ideologicaltraditionofdogmatic,integrated, and exclusivistgrandvisions. Thesevisionscannolonger
encompasseitherthenewscientificrevolutionortherevolutionsofthestudentsandintellectuals,whohave
replacedthecommunistsastheantiestablishmentariansofourtime.Whatevertheresponse,thebasicfact
remainsthatintheWestthecommunistpartiesarenolongereitherinnovativeorrevolutionary.

ChinaandGlobalRevolution
ThoughitcametoolateintheWest,communismhascometooearlyfortheEast,or,moregenerally,
fortheThird Worldasa whole.InsteadofbeingtheinternationalizingandhumanizingforcethatMarx
conceivedsocialismtobe,communismintheEastisatbestaninspirationforintenselynationalistic
modernizationorofrevolutionaryresistancetosocialexploitationatworst,itisthebasisfordespoticfanaticism
andmassiveoppression.AsintheWest,communism'svirtueshavemoreoftenbeendemonstratedwhenithas
beenoutofpowerandhasactedasacatalystinthestruggleagainstinequality,socialinjustice,orforeigndom
ination.Inpower,ithastendedtobecomeextremelyoppressive,fanatical,andintenselynationalistic.
CommunismintheEast,evenmorethanintheWest,hasbeenaparticularlyimportantforcein
stimulatingpopulistnationalism.Thisisquiteunderstandable.CommunismcametotheThirdWorldmasses
beforetheirpoliticalawakening,andithassucceededonlywhereithasbecomeboththeexternalexpressionand
theinternalcontentofthenewsenseofnationalidentity.Focusingonindustrializationasthewayinwhichto
fulfillpopularaspirationsonbothexternalanddomesticlevels,communismgalvanizedfeelingsofinferiority
towardthemoreadvancedWest.Indeed,becauseofthis,communismintheThirdWorldhasbeenespecially
vulnerabletotheracismthatgiventhebitterlegacyofthewhiteman'simperialisminevitablyinfectedthe
newnationalism.45 Racism,however,isoneofthemostprimitiveandirrationalsourcesofmotivation,anda
communistideologyreinforcedbyitwhetherinAsiaorinAfricacannothelpbutbedeprivedofbothits
universalityanditsrationality.
Analtogetherdifferentchallengetocommunism'sideologicalandinstitutionalglobalrelevancehas
beenposedbythevictoryofChinesecommunism.Chinesecommunismhasnotonlyparalleledtheclaimof
Sovietcommunismtobe the purecommunismofourtime,buthasbeenwillingtobackitsclaimwithdomestic
revolutionaryaction.The"CulturalRevolution"ofthelate1960s,whichfollowedbyafewyearsthe"Great
LeapForward"ofthelate1950s,wasdesignedtoovercometherulingparty'sdangeroustendencytoward
bureaucraticstagnationandideologicalpetrifaction.TheChinesehaveexplicitlystatedthat,intheirview,the
Sovietpartyhadalreadybecomeavictimofsuchpetrifaction.TheCulturalRevolution(theintellectual
equivalentofthesocioeconomicshakeupeffectedbytheGreatLeapForward)wasdesignedtobetheinternal,

*
Orevenparticipationintheirnationalestablishments.Amovingaccountoftheeffortsofadevotedcommunistmilitanttoarouseher
party'sofficialstotheplightoftheNeapolitanmassesandtostimulate amorerevolutionaryattitudeinthemisprovidedbyM.A.
Macciocchi,Letteredall'internodelPCIaLouisAlthusser, Milan,1969.Inherdiaryshedescribeshereffortstogaintheconfidenceofthe
workersandevenmorefutiletomakediepartybureaucratsmoresensitivetotheworkers'abysmalconditions.

ThefirstsituationhasbeenmoretrueoftheFrenchCommunistParty,andGeorgeLichtlieimwasquitecorrectinstatingthat"iftheroleof
MarxistdoctrineincontemporaryFrancecanbereducedtoaformula,itmaybesummedupbysayingthatfromthevisionofarevolutionary
futureithasturnedintothecriticalcontemplationof aneternalandseeminglyunchangeablepresent"(GeorgeLichtheim,Marxismin
ModernFrance, astudybytheResearch InstituteonCommunistAffairs,NewYork,1966,p.169).Thesecondsituationismoreapplicable
totheItalianparty,inwhichthemostexplicitconceptofthenewbroadpartywasdevelopedbyoneofitstheoreticians,G.Amendola,ina
seriesofarticles publishedinthefallof1964inthetheoreticaljournaloftheItalianCommunistParty,Rinascita. Inthesearticleshecalled
forthecreationofasinglepartyoftheleft,whichwouldbeneithercommunistnorsocialdemocratic,neithershackledbyideologynor
dominatedbythepartycadres.

73
domesticexpressionofthelivingandcontinuingrevolution.Itsoveralleffect,however,wastodotothe
ChineseCommunistPartywhatKhrushchev'sabortedreformsof1963almostdidtotheSovietparty:to
thoroughlydisorganizeit,and,withit,theChineseeconomyaswell.48
BydenigratingthepartyandbysimultaneouslyelevatingMaoTsetung'spersonalruleandrole,
Chinesecommunisminevitablyseparateditselffromthetraditionalcommunistmainstreaminspiteofthe
ChinesetheorythatthegeographicvortexofrevolutionaryleadershiphasovertheyearsshiftedfromFranceto
GermanytoRussiaandnowtoChina.Moreover,unlikeStalin,whoseroleintheinternationalcommunist
movementwasreinforcedbyatoweringpersonalstandingandbyleadershipoftheonlycommunistpartyin
power,Maowasfacedbyanumberofotherrulingcommunistparties,alldisputinghisclaimtoorthodoxyand
alleagertopointouthisdoctrinalerrors.TheeffectwastoweakenChina'sinternationalclaimtoideological
universalityandtotarnishboththerevolutionaryprestigeoftheChinesecommunistsandtheirundeniably
impressiveachievementsinthestruggletoovercomeChina'sbackwardness.47
China'scapacitytoserveasamodelofcommunismwasfurthercomplicatedbytheuniquecharacterof
Chinaitself.TheChinesecommunistscametopowernotinasinglecountrybutinavastsocietythatrepresents
acomprehensiveandsophisticatedcivilization.Notonlyisthatcivilizationhighlydistinctivebutithasfora
longtimehaditsownconceptofaworldorderinwhichChinaisthetraditionalcenter.Thoughthehistoricaland
universalcategoriesofMarxistthoughthavebeenassimilatedintothatChineseframeworkandbecomean
extensionofit,thecultural,linguistic,andracialdistinctivenessoftheChinesehasautomaticallymadetheir
communismmuchmoredifficulttoexportoremulate.
Moreover,unliketheRussians,whohaveoftenreferredtoMoscowasthe"ThirdRome,"theChinese
havetraditionallydisplayednointensemissionaryzeal.Effectiveperformanceinthemissionaryrolerequires,in
additiontopersonalinclination,somecultural,philosophic,andevenethnickinship,tosaynothingofa
proselytizingtradition.Itisnoaccidentthat,despiteitsmissionaryzeal,EuropeanbasedChristianitywasmuch
lesssuccessfulinitseffortstospreadtoAsiathanwastheEast'sMiddleIslam.Perhapsaracialappeal
explicitlybasedoncolorandideologicallylegitimizedbytheidentificationofthewhitemanwithimperialism
maycreateabridgebetweenChineseproselytizersandforeignmasses,buteventhatappealismorelikelytobe
effectiveinareassufficientlydistantfromChinanottobefearfulofChinesenationalismandChina'scultural
hegemony.HenceAfrica,ratherthanAsia,maybeamorepromisinglongrangeChinesetarget.
TheseconsiderationsprovidesomecluestotheprobablelimitsofChina'srevolutionaryworldrole.
NeitherChineseverbalextremismnorevenChina'scrashprogramtoestablishanucleararsenal(theoldquestion
ofintentionsorcapabilities)isasimportantasthefactthatChinahasbecomeasomewhatselfcontained
civilizationnationstate.China'spowerwillprobablygrowintheyearstocome,andwithitChina'scapacityto
threatenitsneighborsandeventuallyeventheUnitedStatesortheSovietUnion.48Butitdoesnotfollowthat
Chinawillthereforebecomeanactivistdirectorofmilitantandgloballyrelevantrevolutionaryprocesses.Onthe
contrary,asmemoriesofChineserevolutionaryachievementsgraduallyrecedeintothe past,Chinawillfindit
moreandmoredifficulttopresentitselfasthehistoricallyrelevantrevolutionarymodel.China'saidwillbe
acceptedbyneedyrevolutionaries,butitwillprobablybecomemoreratherthanlessdifficultfortheChineseto
convincetherecipientsofsuchaidthatChinahasauniversalmission.
Norisitcertain,ashasbeenoccasionallyargued,thatintheyearstocomecommunismwilloffertothe
ThirdWorldanattractivemodelcombiningsustainedeconomicdevelopmentandsocialmodernizationwith
politicalstability.EvenifChinamakesimpressivestridesanditsGNPgrowssteadilyat5percentperannum,in
theyear2000itwillstillbeamongthepoorernationsoftheworld.Thefactisthatitsnumbers,farfrombeinga
factorofstrength,merelymagnifythescaleofitssocialandeconomicdilemmas.TherelevanceofSoviet
economicexperiencetotheThirdWorldisalsodoubtful.AnalysisoftheSovietexperiencestronglysuggests
thatindustrializationneednotbederivedfromtheimpetusprovidedbyextraordinarilycoercivemeansorfrom
thephysicaldestructionofasocialclass.Moreover,itisimportanttonotethatSovietindustrializationoccurred
inasocietythathadsomethirtyyearsofpriorindustrialdevelopmentbehindit,thatwasendowedwith
matchlessnaturalresourcesandahardworkinganddisciplinedpopulation(butnotoverpopulation),andthat
evenbeforeWorldWarIhadtheadvantagesofsolidstatistics,relativelywelltrainedtechnicalcadres,and
preliminaryplansforfuturedevelopment.(Seeourearlierdiscussionof"TheStalinistParadox.")These
conditionscanrarelybematchedbytheThirdWorldcountriesnowundertakingtomodernizeandindustrialize
themselves.WhetherChinaorCuba(thelatter,inanycase,relativelywelldevelopedatthetimeofCastro'stake
over)canprovideexamplesofsustainedgrowthandpoliticalstabilityisuncertain.
Ofthecountrieswherecommunismcametopowerwithoutbeingimposedbyforeignintervention(the
SovietUnion,China,Cuba,Yugoslavia,Albania,Vietnam),onlyYugoslaviahassofarsucceededinachieving
sustainedeconomicgrowth,socialmodernization,andpoliticalstabilitywithoutemployingmassiveterroror
experiencingviolentpowerconflictsevenYugoslavia,however,requiredextensiveoutsidefinancialaid.
Moreover,thoughtherecordofeconomicdevelopmentofcommunistcountries,particularlythemoreprimitive
ones,isgood,ithasnotbeenbetterthanthatofsomenoncommunistcountries.Inaddition,mostcommunist
politicalsystems(exceptforYugoslavia,Vietnam,andCuba)havebeencharacterizedbysporadicpolitical
instability,whichinsomecaseshadtobeputdownthroughSovietintervention.Thustheoverallrecordis,at
best,amixedoneandhardlysufficienttojustifytheargumentthatonlythecommunistshavefoundthe keyto

74
effectivemodernization.*
Nor,forthatmatter,havetheyfoundtheanswertoeffectiverevolutionmaking.Communismcameto
powerindigenouslyinonlyonecountrynotpreviouslydevastatedbyamajorwar Cuba.Inseveralother
countriesitcametopowerindigenouslywhencommunistspickedupthepiecesafterthesenationshad
experiencedcompletedestructionoftheirstatemachineryandeconomyduringamajorwar.Otherthanthat,the
communistrevolutionaryrecordsince1917hasbeenoneofratherfrequentfailure,+whileinPoland,Hungary,
andRumaniaitwastheSovietarmythatestablishedcommunism.
Nevertheless,itisquitepossiblethatintheyearstocomeindividual,highlynationalistic,perhapseven
racistcommunistpartieswillcometopowerinsomeAsian,African,orLatinAmericancountriesbyappealing
bothtothepopulistnationalismofthemassesandthestatismofimpatientintellectuals.Inhisstudy Communism
andthePoliticsofDevelopment, JohnKautskyhasshownthat"Communistpartystrengthislowestatthelowest
stageofeconomicdevelopment,risesgraduallywitheconomicdevelopment,crestsatafairlyhighlevelofsuch
development,anddeclinessharplywiththehighestlevel."49 Thisgeneralizationshouldnotbemechanically
appliedtotheThirdWorldwiththeconclusionthatcommunismwillfadeassoonasdevelopmenthasmade
substantialprogress.Aseizureofpowercould,forexample,occurduringtheintermediaryphase. Itis,however,
unlikelythattheseseizuresofpowerwillbeeffectedbytheorthodoxandformalcommunistparties,whichin
somecountries(particularlyinLatinAmerica)arealreadybecomingassimilatedintothesocialestablishment.
Thesuccessfulrevolutionaries,thoughperhapslabelingthemselvescommunists,willprobablybeloosely
organizedcoalitionsofimpatientmiddleclassintellectuals,youngerofficers,andstudents.Insteadofbeing
adherentsofadogmaticandallegedlyuniversalideology,theyaremorelikelytobemenmotivatedbyavaguer
andmorevolatilecombinationofradicalism,nationalism,andevensomeracism.Communistparties,though
experiencedinorganizingexploited,disadvantagedworkersandintransforminglandlessbutnationalistically
arousedpeasantsintorevolutionaryarmies,havesofarbeenunabletodiscipline,eitherideologicallyor
organizationally,thestudentsandtheintellectualsfermentinginthemodernstainlesssteelandglass
universities.Tothesemen,FanonandBoumedienne,orBolivarandGuevara,ratherthanMarxandMao,or
MarxandLenin,aremorerelevantsymbols.Therevolutionstocomewillhenceneithersignifyanautomatic
additionofstrengthto"internationalcommunism"norrepresentastepforwardtowardtheintellectualunityof
mankind.
Theideologicallymorevolatile,lessdisciplinedcharacterofthesenovelrevolutionary.forceswouldbe
inkeepingwiththebroadertrends alreadynoted.Conditionsduringtheearlyindustrialagecalledforintellectual
andorganizationalintegration,butthedynamiccongestionoftheglobalcityisinimicaltoadisciplined,
centralizedinternationalorganizationwhosepurposeistodisseminateaparticularsystemofthoughtandof
valuesandtocreateagloballyuniformsocialorderonthatbasis.Thefactisthatproximityparadoxically
dictatesnotuniformitybutpluralism.
Moreover,thechancesoftrulyrevolutionaryupheavalsradicallyandrapidlyrevolutionizingboth
socialvaluesandinstitutionsareinanycasenothigh.InmoderntimesonlytheFrench,theMexican,andthe
Cubanrevolutionscanbeconsideredasauthenticallyindigenousandfarreachinginternalrevolutionsthat were
achievedwithoutthebenefitofthecataclysmicdislocations wroughtbythetwoworldwars.Otherwise,eventhe
mostineffectivesocialandpoliticalsystemshaveshownthemselvestobehighlyresilientanddifficultto
overthrow.Inmostcasesithasbeenfoundthatsocialinertiacanonlybecopedwithpiecemealandthat
superimposedradicaleffortstoovercomeithavepromptedeffectiveresistance.
AtonetimeSoviettheoriststoyedwiththeconceptofthenationaldemocracyasatransitionalstage
towardacommunistpeople'sdemocracy.TheoverthrowofBenBella,Goulart,Kassem,Keita,Nkrumah,
Papandreou,andSukarnohascompelledtheSovietstothinkintermsofmuchlengthierandmoregradualrevo
lutionaryprocessesatthesametime,the ChineseandtheCubanshavemovedtowardemphasisonvarious
formsofguerrillawar,ofteninthefaceofopencriticismfromlocalcommunistparties. Bothcaseshave
involvedanimpliedadmissionoftheincreasingirrelevanceoftheclassicalrevolutionarytheoryanda
concessiontosocialparticularism,whichwhenlinkedtoideologicaldogmatismmeanssectarianism.
Sectarianismisthenegationofuniversalism.Communismmayturnouttohavebeenthelastgreat
integrativedogmaticfaith.Totheextentthatsomecommunistpartiesaretodayjoiningtheirnational
establishments,theyareconformingtorealityratherthanformingit.Totheextentthatsomecommunistparties
areembracingracismandintensenationalismintheThirdWorld,theyarecapitulatingtorealityratherthan

*
Intheserespects,usefulcomparisonscanbemadebetweencommunistruledcountriesandcountriesruledbymodernizingnoncommunist
elitesPolandSpainItalyRumaniaYugoslaviaSpainCzechoslovakiaSwedenHungaryAustriaNorthKoreaSouthKoreaNorth
VietnamSouthVietnamChinaIndiaandsoon.Thesecomparisonsaremorerevealingofcertainuniformitiesthanofsignificant
disparities.Thedisparitiesaresharperwhenthecomparisonismadewithnonmodernizing,noncommunistcountries.+Apartiallistof
moresignificantrevolutionaryeffortsbythecommunistsincludes:Hungary1919Poland1920Germany1918,1923China1927France
andItaly1947Greece1948Indonesia1949,1965Bolivia1966.

The issuesatstakeweresharplyposedbythesecretarygeneraloftheVenezuelanCommunistParty,JesusFaria,whostatedinan
interviewprintedintheHungarianpartyorgan,Nepszabadsag (February17,1968):"Experiencehasshownthatthemassesarewithdrawing
fromthepreviousarmedstruggle....Fourmillionpeopleareparticipatingintheelectioncampaignandwebelievethatwecanorientthe
peoplebetterifwealsoparticipateinthiscampaign....TheultraleftistgroupsinVenezuela,whichdisregardthecombatreadinessofthe
massesandpersistinthesloganofarmedstruggleatanyprice,commitonemistakeafteranotherandfindthemselvesmoreandmore
isolated."

75
reshapingit.Ineithercasethereisalossofidentitywhich,oncelost,isnotlikelytoberegained.Thus,evenif
oneisnotaMarxist,itisnotnecessarilyacauseforrejoicingtonotethatcommunismwhichhelpedtoenlarge
thecollectiveconsciousnessofmankindandtomobilizethemassesforsocialprogresshasfailedinitsoriginal
objectiveoflinkinghumanismwithinternationalism.

76
PARTIV
TheAmericanTransition
Thereissomethingawesomeandbafflingaboutasocietythatcansimultaneouslychangeman'srelationshipto
theuniversebyplacingamanonthemoon,wageandfinanceathirtybilliondollarperannumforeignwar
despisedbyasignificantportionofitspeople,maintainthemostpowerfulandfarflung militaryforcesin
history,andconfrontinthestreetsandabetinthecourtsarevolutioninitsinternalracialrelations,doingallthis
inthecontextoftheexplosionofhigherlearninginitsrapidlyexpandingandturbulentuniversities,ofrotting
urbancenters,offumblingpoliticalinstitutions,andofdynamicallygrowingfrontierindustriesthatare
transformingtheway.itscitizensliveandcommunicatewithoneanother.Anyoneoftheaboveaspectswould
sufficetotransformthevaluesandselfimageofasociety,andafewmightbeenoughtooverthrowitssystem.
Alltogether,theycreateasituationthatdefiesanalogytoothersocietiesandhighlightsthesingularcharacterof
thecontemporaryAmericanexperience.
ContemporaryAmericaistheworld'ssociallaboratory.Theproblemsthatthemoreadvancedworldis
beginningtoconfront andtheThirdWorldiswitnessingabsorbAmericadirectlyandoftenpainfully.Itisin
theUnitedStatesthatthecrucialdilemmasofouragemanifestthemselvesmoststarklyitisintheUnitedStates
thatman'scapacitytomasterhisenvironmentandtodefinehimselfmeaningfullyinrelationshiptoitisbeing
mostintenselytested.Canmanmasterscienceforfundamentallyhumaneends?Canlibertyandequalitycoexist,
anddosoinamultiracialenvironment?Canmeritandachievementflourishwithoutspecialprivilege?Can
technologybesociallycreativewithoutinducingexcessivesocialcontrol?Canasocietywithdiversebeliefs
avoidcompletedisbelief?TheseissuesdominatecontemporaryAmericanlifethefocusofglobalattention
andtheypromptconflictingandoftencriticalassessmentsofthemeaningoftheAmericanexperience.1
UnlikethesituationintheSovietUnion,inAmericathechallengeof changeishighlyvisible.Inthe
SovietUnionsocietyislikeaboilingsubterraneanvolcanothatstrainsagainsttherigidsurfacecrustofthe
politicalsystem.InthemorevolatileUnitedStates,social,economic,andpoliticalforcesopenlyclash,change,
andinteractonabroadfront.Theresultingturmoilisascreativeasitisdestructive,anditleadstometamorphic
changesinthatuniquecombinationoforderandchaosknownastheUnitedStates.
InthenexttwentyyearsthepopulationoftheUnitedStateswillapproachthreehundredmillion,of
whichapproximately80percentwillbemetropolitanandalmost50percentundertwentyyearsofage.
Intenselyscientificinorientation,Americansocietywillhavegreatermasteryofbothterrestrialand spatial
environmentthananyothersociety.Atthesametimeitwillhaveexperiencedintensesocialconflictsinwhich
racialconsiderationswillbeparamountbutinwhichantagonismbetweengenerationswillalsobeabasicand
painfulburden.Inalllikelihooditwillalsobeasocietyconfrontinganacuteculturalmalaise, uncertainofits
aestheticstandards,andsearchingforcommonintegrativevalues.
ContemporaryAmericaisintransitionfromtheindustrialtothetechnetronicage.Astheworld'sfirst
postindustrialsociety,theUnitedStatesisnolongershapedbythesameforcesthathavestimulatedsocial
changeintheadvancedcountrieseversinceEnglandfirstconfrontedthemachine.Thisbroadtransformationis
causingacrisisofestablishedAmericanvaluesandinstitutions,particularlythe"traditionofliberaldemocracy,
andasthenation'stwohundredthbirthdayapproaches,itthereforecallsforaredefinitionoftheAmerican
system.
Liberaldemocracyisapeculiarblendofthearistocratictradition,constitutionallegalism,andmass
democracy.Unlikecommunism,itwasnotintellectuallyextractedfromatelescopedandtraumatichistorical
experience,anditisnotembodiedinamovementwhichdrawsitsfervoranddedicationfromthedeeplyem
beddedManichaeantradition.Rather,itistheproductofslowgrowththoughoccasionallyacceleratedby
revolutionaryupheavalsinEngland,theUnitedStates,andFrancewhichcumulativelycreatedabroad
traditionofsocialbehavior,aset ofonlypartiallyexplicitvalues,andhighlydefinedlegalproceduresand
institutions.Thearistocratictraditionputapremiumonpersonalexcellenceandachievement,thoughintime
standardsofexcellencechangedandbecamelessexclusive.Legalism,whichinthepastdoubtlessservedto
protectestablishedinterests,stressedregularityandobjectivityinsocialrelationsandthereforegraduallycameto
protecttheindividual.Thedemocraticelement,stimulatedthroughuniversalsuffrage,notonlydilutedthe
aristocraticcomponentbutinfusedliberaldemocracywithastrongconcernforsocialwelfare.
Thesecomponentshavecombinedinalooseandoccasionallyuneasymanner,andfromtimetotime
theyhaveconflictedandclashed.InAmericanhistory suchclasheshavebeenviolent,thoughonthewhole
rathersporadic.TheCivilWarwasthemajorexception,anditsoutcomeeffectivelyandrapidlydestroyedthe
aristocraticelementinAmericantradition,whereasthedeclineofEuropeanaristocracywasslow.Theindustrial
revolutionproduceditsownstrainsandviolence,buttherapidpaceofgrowthaswellastheavailabilityof
Europeancapitalandofforeignmarketseasedthegrowingpainsevenasitenlargedandthenconsolidatedthe
democraticcomponent.TheresultingsocialwealthanddemocraticfreedomhavemadeAmericathesymbolofa
newformofsocialorganization,allthemoreattractivebecauseitsspectacularsuccessesobscureditssocial
blemishes.

77
 Thisphaseiscomingtoanend.ThesocialblindersthathavemadeAmericaunawareofits
shortcomingshavebeenrippedoff,andthepainfulawarenessofAmericansociety'slingeringinadequacyhas
beenrenderedmoreacutebytheintensityandpaceofchange.Inaword,Americaisundergoinganew
revolution,whosedistinguishingfeatureisthatitsimultaneouslymaximizesAmerica'spotentialasitunmasksits
obsolescence.

1.TheThirdAmericanRevolution
ItiseasytopinpointtheFrenchandtheMexicanrevolutions,ortheBolshevik,theChinese,andthe
Cubanrevolutions.ItisalsonotdifficulttoidentifythefirstAmericanrevolution.Fromacolonythatrevolution
createdanationimplicitthoughstronglyfeltbeliefsgavebirthtoaDeclarationofIndependenceanda
Constitution,bothofwhicharticulatednovelprinciplesofpoliticalandsocialorder.
HistoricaldefinitionbecomesmorecomplexwhendealingwiththesecondAmericanrevolution.
Preciselywhendidithappenandwhatdiditdo?Thoughthatrevolutioncannotbepinpointedwiththesame
accuracyasthefirst,itisafactthatanessentiallyrural,partiallyaristocratic,andevenslaveowningsocietywith
alimitedrepresentativepoliticalsystemwastransformed intoanurbanindustrialnation* whoserelativelegal
politicalsocialequalityextendedatleastinformtoalmost90percentofitspeopleandwhosepublicethos
wasdominatedlargelybywidespreadacceptanceofsocialwelfare,effectedthroughgovernmentalintervention.
Thus,ittoowasarealrevolution,thoughnotascontainedintimeasthefirst.IttooktheCivilWar,theindus
trializationofthecountry,themassiveinfluxofimmigrants,and,finally,theNewDealtotransform American
society.Tocallitarevolutionisadmittedlytostretchthedefinitionofrevolution,butthereisnodoubtthatboth
theinstitutionsandthevaluesoftheUnitedStatesweretherebyprofoundlyalteredinalittleoveracentury.
ThethirdAmericanrevolutionisevenhardertodefine,forwearenowinthemiddleofitandthus
cannotbecertainofitsoutcome.Inonerespect,however,itiseasiertoidentifythanthesecond,foritsimpact
anditseffectaremoreconcentratedintime.ThethirdrevolutionbegangatheringmomentumafterWorldWar
II,withthemassiveentranceintocollegesofexGIswiththeconcomitantexplosioninhigherlearningandthe
growingacceptanceofthesocialprimacyofeducationwiththeunionofnationalpowerandmodernscience
crownedbytheharnessingofnuclearenergyandthefederalgovernmentemergingasamajorsponsorof
scientificinvestigationwiththesuddenbirthofrapidcontinentalcommunications,rangingfromtheworld's
mostmodernanddevelopedhighwaysystem,throughrapidairpassengertransport,toauniquelyeffective
instanttranscontinentaltelephone system,andfinallytoanationwidetelevisionintimacywiththe
transformationinmanagerialtechniqueswroughtbytheappearanceofcomputersandotherelectronicdevices
thatconquercomplexity,distance,andeventhediffusionofauthorityandwiththefadingofindustryasthe
mostimportantsourceofemploymentformostAmericans.Promptedbytechnology andparticularlyelectronics,
thethirdrevolutionischangingthebasicinstitutionsandvaluesofAmericansocietyand,aswasalsothecase
withtheprecedingrevolutions,itisencounteringresistance,stimulatingviolence,causinganxiety,andstirring
hope.
Intheprocess,itiscreatingthreeAmericasinone.ThereistheemergingnewAmericasymbolizedby
thenewcomplexesoflearning,research,anddevelopmentthatlinkinstitutionsofhigherlearningwithsociety
andcreateunprecedentedopportunitiesforinnovationandexperimentation,inadditiontosparkingincreased
interestinthefineartsandculture,asisevidencedbynewmuseumsandartcenters.TechnetronicAmericaisin
theelectronicslaboratoriesandcentersoflearningalongRoute 128surroundingBoston,2 itisintheacademic
scientificconglomeratesaroundLosAngelesandSanFranciscoanditisinthenewfrontierindustries.The
suburbanmiddleclassincreasinglygravitatestowardthisAmerica,thoughfrequentlyresentingitsscientismand
nostalgicallyyearningformorecommunityandstability.
IndustrialAmericathesecondAmericaisintheestablishedfactoriesandsteelmillsofDetroitand
Pittsburgh,whoseskilledbluecollarworkersaregraduallyforgettingthetraumasoftheGreatDepressionand
beginningtoenjoybothsecurityandleisurebutarefearfullesttheirnewsocialpositionbethreatenedfrom
below.ForthissecondAmericalivesalongsidethedecayingslumsoftheindustrialbigcities,increasingly
populatedbyaracialminoritythatismoredifficulttoabsorbbecausethesocietywaslateindrawingitintothe
industrialage.
Finally,thereistheoriginal,thefirstAmerica,thepreindustrialAmericaofsharecroppersandmigrant
workersfromtheMississippideltaandofobsolescentminersfromAppalachia,whoseincomehasfallenbehind
theAmericanaverage.InthisAmericaaccesstoeducationisconsiderablylessthanelsewhereinthenation,and
racialdiscriminationisovert.3 ThisAmericaisseeking toenterboththeindustrialandthepostindustrialages,
andtodosoitmustobtaintheassistanceofthenewAmerica,whosevaluesandconceptsitoftenmistrustsand
rarelyshares.
ThenewAmericaisonlynowtakingshape."Today,notonlydoesachildfacearadicalrupturewith
thepast,buthemustbetrainedforanunknownfuture.Andthistaskconfrontstheentiresocietyaswell."4 The

*
In1800theruralpopulationoftheUnitedStatesaccountedforabout94percentofthetotalin1850,forapproximately85percentin
1900,60percentin1950,35percent.Itisestimatedthatbytheyear2000theruralpopulationwillbeapproximately50millionoutofa
totalof300million,or17percent.In1969,73 percentofallAmericanslivedononepercentoftheland(Time, January24,1969,pp.18,
3033).

78
currenttransformationalsoposesprofoundphilosophicalissuesconcerningtheveryessenceofsocialexistence,
sinceitislargelyderivedfromanunprecedentedexpansionofscientificpoweroverbothman'senvironmentand
manhimself.* Studiesofchange5 cumulativelyreinforcethepictureofasocietyundergoingafarreaching,
technologicallyinducedrevolution.

ThePaceandThrustofProgress
ThefactsreflectingchangeinAmericaarefamiliarandthereforeneednotberelatedindetail.Thereis,
firstofall,themassiveexpansioninthesectorofsocietyconcernedwithscienceandknowledge.Thismeansa
significantgrowthmorerapidthanthatintheothersectorsinthenumberofscientists,collegestudents,and,
ofcourse,theinstitutionsthatnurturethem. Asa result,theuniversityhasemergedasthecreativecoreofthe
massivelearningcommunicationscomplex,thesourceofmuchdomesticandinternationalstrategicinnovation.
Insocialprestigeandinfluence,theuniversityisdisplacingtheequivalentinstitutionsofthemoretraditional
America:thechurchandbigbusiness.
Theemphasisonscienceandlearninggoeshandinhandwiththerationalizationoftechniquesandthe
introductionofnewteaching,managerial,computing,andcommunicationsdevices,whicharealtering
establishedpracticesandchangingthemethodsusedtostoreandretrieveaccumulatedknowledge.Anational
informationgridthatwillintegrateexistingelectronicdatabanksisalreadybeingdeveloped6 topoolthenation's
accumulatedknowledge.Increasinglyswampedlibrariesmaysoonfindreliefbyshiftingtotheultramicrofiche
technique,pioneeredbyNASA,bywhichatwothousandpagebookcanbereducedtoatransparencysmaller
thantheaveragebookpagethiswillmakeitfeasibleforeverysmallcollegetopossessalibraryinferiorto
none.7 ThoughAmericaneducationaltheoristsdisagreeaboutthedegreetowhichtheeducationalsystemscan
adaptthenewtechniques,theirdebatesrevealtheextenttowhichtechnicalassimilationratherthan
philosophicalissuesdominatestheirthinking.8
Contemporarybusinessputsasimilarpremiumonknowledgeandtherapidadaptationofnew
techniques.Thisrequiresthepoolingofresources,andcollectiveorganizationalefforts,thefrequentand
systematicretrainingoftoppersonnel,andaclosetiewiththecentersofknowledge.Linearprogramming,a
systemsapproachtoproblems,coordinatedteamwork,andahighlysophisticatedattitudetowardhuman
relationsandlaborpsychologyarebecomingthedominantfeaturesofmanagerialprocesses.Accordingto
LawrenceAppley,chairmanoftheAmericanManagementAssociation,thenumberofmanagersinvolvedin
professionalmanagementsocietiesandworkingwithmanagementconsultantshasrisenfromtenthousandin
1948tooversixhundredthousandin1962.8 Operationally,businesslessandlessresemblesapoliticalhierarchy
orapersonalfiefdomitisincreasinglysimilartoasystematicscientificundertakingthatnotonlyproduceswhat
isknownbutsystematicallyseekstoexplorewhatistocome.
Insummarizingthesocialtransformationwroughtbytechnology,DanielBelllistedfivekeyareasofchange:
"(1)Byproducingmoregoodsatlesscost,technologyhasbeenthechiefengineofraisingthelivingstandardsof
theworld....
(2) Technologyhascreatedanewclass,hithertounknowninsociety,oftheengineerandthetechnician....

*
ThediscussioninthefirstsectionofPartIofthisbookisparticularlyrelevanttounderstandingcontemporaryAmerica,sinceitdealswith
thebasic differencesbetweenanindustrialandatechnetronicsociety.

Thescaleofthatchangecanbeillustratedbyafewfigures.Collegeenrollmentsincreasedby45percentintheyears19641969.In1965
morethan50percentofalladultswerehighschoolgraduatesin1900thecorrespondingfigurewasonlyonepercent!(Forbackground
data,seeA.J.Marrow,D.G.Bowers,S.E.Seashore,ManagementbyParticipation, NewYork,1967.)Thenumberofteachersincreased
fromabout1.3millionin1954toabout2.1millionadecadelaterthenumberofengineersgrewfromabouthalfamilliontoalmosta
million.AnOECDstudyofAmericanscienceestimatesthatbetween1963and1970thescientificpopulationoftheUnitedStateswillhave
grownfrom2.7millionto4million,withdoctoratesinscienceincreasingfrom96,000to153,000andthoseinengineeringfrom10,000to
17,000.In18691870,roughlyatthebeginningofAmerica'sindustrialrevolution,thenumberofalldegreesawardedbyinstitutionsof
higherlearningwasjustunder10,000in18891890itwas17,000in19391940,216,000adecadelateritwas497,000andin19631964,
614,000.Inthepasttwentyyearsinvestmentsinresearchanddevelopmenthaveincreasedfifteenfold,expendituresin educationsixfold,
whiletheGNPhastripled(seeDanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"pp.201,206,228and ReviewsofNational
SciencePolicy:UnitedStates, OECD,pp.45,54).

"Thenewstyleofdealingwiththefuturehasnoaccepted,inclusivename,butthenamesofitsmorehighlydevelopedtechniqueshave
becomefamiliarinthelasttenyearstomostbusinessmen,governmentofficials,militaryofficers,scientists,andtechnicians.Thetechniques
themselves,whichareapttobecalled'systemsanalysis'or'systemsplanning,'arenowwidelyusedbothwithandwithoutthehelpof
computers.'Costbenefit'or'costeffectiveness'analysisisamajoringredientofthenewtechniquesthisinvolveswaysofarrayingendsand
meanssothatdecisionmakershaveclearerideasofthechoicesopentothemandbetterwaysofmeasuringresultsagainstbothexpectations
andobjectives.
"Amongcharacteristicsofthenewpatternarethese:(1)Amoreopenanddeliberateattentiontotheselectionofendstowardwhichplanned
actionisdirected,andanefforttoimproveplanningbysharpeningthedefinitionofends.(2)Amoresystematicadvancecomparisonof
meansbycriteriaderivedfromtheendsselected.(3)Amorecandidandeffectiveassessmentofresults,usuallyincludingasystemof
keepingtrackofprogresstowardinterimgoals.Alongwiththisgoesa'marketlike'sensitivitytochangingvaluesandevolvingends.(4)An
effort,oftenintellectuallystrenuous,tomobilizescienceandotherspecializedknowledgeintoaflexibleframeworkofinformationand
decisionsothatspecificresponsibilitiescanbeassignedtothepointsofgreatestcompetence.(5)Anemphasisoninformation,prediction,
andpersuasion,ratherthanoncoerciveor authoritarianpower,asthemainagentsofcoordinatingtheseparateelementsofaneffort.(6)An
increasedcapabilityofpredictingthecombinedeffectofseverallinesofsimultaneousactionononeanotherthiscanmodifypolicysoasto
reduceunwantedconsequencesoritcangenerateother lines ofactiontocorrectorcompensateforsuchpredictedconsequences"(Max
Ways,"TheRoadto1977,"Fortune, January1967,pp.9495).

79
(3)Technologyhascreatedanewdefinitionofrationality,anewmodeofthought,whichemphasizesfunctional
relationsandthequantitative
(4)Therevolutionsintransportationandcommunication,asaconsequenceoftechnology,havecreatednew
economicinterdependenciesand newsocialinteractions
(5)Estheticperceptions,particularlyofspaceandtime,havebeenradicallyaltered."10
Totheseshouldbeadded thenewsenseofselfawarenessinducedbysociety'sincreasingabilitytosee
itselfinthemirrorprovidedbytelevision,buttressedbyincreasedrelianceonstatisticalanalysis,* andintensified
byasystematicpreoccupationwithmanagingnotonlythe presentbutthefuture.Moreover,forperhapsthefirst
timeinitshistoryAmericansocietyisbeginningtoacquireanationaloutlookonsuchmattersasraceand
povertyhence,inadequaciesinonesectorarenolongeramatterofrelativeindifferencetoanotherregionor
classorminority.Allthispromptsamoredeliberate,lesshaphazardefforttoidentifysocialinadequacies,andit
therebylinksmoraloutrageatsocialinjusticewithamoreoperationalpreoccupationwithimprovingoverall
social performance.Man'sinhumanitytomanwascertainlyeasiertoacceptinasettinginwhichhumanrelations
weredistant,classinterestswerecompartmentalized,andsocialconsciencewasrarelyarousedbyvisible
injustice.
Theconsequenceisnotonlyundeniablyrapidprogressinmanyareasandincreasedsocialawarenessof
existingfailings,butalsotheintensificationofoldproblemsandtheposingofnewchallenges.Theeconomic
basethatdeterminestheaverageAmerican'smateriallothasexpandedinrecentyearsatapacethatmakesthe
AmericanpercapitaGNPincreaseatarategreaterthanthatenjoyedeitherbyotheradvancedsocietiesorby
those thatarebecomingso.11 Thischangehasbeenaccompaniedintheyears19591967bysignificant,andeven
accelerating,shiftsinincomedistributionandinpatternsofemployment(seeTables11and12).Theseshifts
indicatethestrengtheningofthemiddlelevelsofAmericansociety,adevelopmentnotonlysymptomaticof
greatersocialegalitarianismbut alsosignificantlyrelevanttothepoliticalaspectsofthecurrentAmerican
transition(onwhich

TABLE11. CHANGESIN INCOME DISTRIBUTIONANDINEMPLOYMENT

Percentageof
Familieswith 19591963 19631967
Incomeof:
1959 1963 Change 1967 Change
Over$15,000 31 5.4 +2.3 12.2 +6.8
$5ooo$15,ooo 52.3 58.3 +6.0 62.7 +4.4
Under$5000 44.6 36.2 8.4 25.1 ll.l
Basedon"ConsumerIncome,"CurrentPopulationReports, DepartmentofCommerce,August5,1968,pp.27.Thedatainthistableare
basedonincomeonly,priortodeductionsfortaxes.However,thereportstates,"Evenafterallowanceforchangesinconsumerprices,family
incomehasrisenby3 1/2to4percentineachofthelast4years"(p.1).

TABLE12. CHANGESIN EMPLOYMENTIN PERCENTAGES

WhiteCollar BlueCollar Service Farm
1958 42.6 37.1 11.9 8.5
1967 46.0 36.7 12.5 4.8
Source:ManpowerReportofthePresident, DepartmentofLabor,Washington,D.C.,April1968,p.232.

morelater).Inadditiontotheseoverallpercentages,noteshouldbetakenofthefactthatasoftheendofthe
1960sAmericansownedcloseto70millionautomobiles,that95percentofAmericanhouseholdshadatleast
onetelevisionsetand25percenthadatleasttwo,andthatover60percentofAmericanfamiliesownedtheir
ownhomes.12 DespitetheindisputablepersistenceofpovertyintheUnitedStates,Americansocietyisachieving
anunprecedentedaffluencethattouchesallclasses.
ThatpovertybesetsmillionsofAmericanshasbeenamplydocumentedinrecentyears,andthe
majority'sindifferenceto thisproblemhasbeenatleastsomewhatshaken.Thepovertylinewasinitiallydefined,
byarbitraryandverybroadapproximation,asincomelessthan$3000perannumforafamilyoffour,or$1500
foranindividual.Thereisnodoubtthatsuchalevelinvolvesacutehardshipformost,andevenmalnutritionfor
many,butevenmoredebilitatingisthepsychologicalsenseofdeprivationinrelationshipto thesociety'soverall
wealth. Nonetheless, heretoothepaceofeconomicgrowth,combinedwithmoredeliberateefforts,hasbrought
progress:from1961to1969thegroupbelowthepovertylineasdefinedbytheSocialSecurityAdministration
andtakingintoaccounttheriseinpricesdroppedfrom22percentto13percentofthepopulation.13
Moreover,accordingtotheCouncilofEconomicAdvisors'Reportofearly1969,if19611968ratesinreducing
thenumberofpoorpersonsarecontinued,"poverty"willbeentirelyeliminatedintenyearsifthe1968ratesare

*
Itisusefultorecallthatacenturyagoacitizenwouldrarely,ifever,seethecharts,graphs,andtablesthatacontemporaryAmericanreads
almostdailyinhispressandthatareastandardfeatureofanyreportorstudy.

Itisthispsychologicaldimensionthatsomeforeigncommentatorsneglectwhentheycomment,witha touchofenvy,ontheUnitedStates'
definitionofpoverty.Forexample,"...Americadrawsitspovertylineatlevelsthatwouldbeconsideredgenerousabroad.Amidallthesad
statisticspouredforthabouttheghettos,itisworthrememberingthatin1967some88percentofallblackAmericanfamilieshada
televisionset"("TheNeuroticTrillionaire,"TheEconomist,specialissue,May10,1969,p.51).

80
continued,itwilldisappearinalittleoverfiveyearsatacostof$9.7billionannually(onepercentoftheGNP
and5percentofthefederalbudget).
Povertyhasplaguedparticularly,butnotexclusively,theblackAmericans.In1966 theirnationwide
medianincomewasonly58percentofthemedianincomeofwhitesby1968thishadgrownto60percent.14
Blacksaretheprincipalvictimsofpoorhousing,poorschooling,andunemployment.Theurbanslums,inhabited
byamuchgreaterpercentageofblacksthanwhites(andblacksintheUnitedStatestodayaremorehighly
urbanizedthanwhites),imposelivingconditionsreminiscentoftheworstphasesofindustrializationandallthe
moreintolerablebecausetheyarenolongerapartof economicgrowthbutavestigialreminderofanagewhich
Americaisincreasinglyleavingbehind.
Nevertheless,heretooeconomicgrowthandtheappearanceof newsocialvaluesmakeaccelerating
progressvisible.Theobviousbreakthroughshavebeenonthe legallevelofcivilrights,especiallyineducation
andhousing,buttheyhavealsotakenplaceontheeconomiclevel.In1961,56percentofAmericanblackswere
classifiedaspoor,butby1969thefigurehaddroppedto33percentin1956,only9percentofNegrofamilies
hadincomesofmorethan$7000,butby1968thishadgrownto28percent,andthemedianincomeofablack
familywas$5360.15 Between1960and1966thenumberofblacksinprofessional,technical,andmanagerial
jobsdoubled,and substandardhousingoccupiedbyblacksdroppedfrom40percentin1960to24percentin
1968.AccordingtoaGalluppoll,between1963and1969thenumberofblacksexpressingsatisfactionwiththeir
jobsincreasedfrom54percentto76percent,andthenumberofthoseblackssatisfiedwiththeirhousingrose
from43percentto50percent.16
ExtensivechangeisalsotakingplaceinAmerica'soverallculturallife.Increasededucation,greater
leisure,andperhapsanunconsciousreactiontothedangerthattechnologycouldbreedculturalemptinesshave
ledtoaheightenedinterestinmusic,drama,andthevisualarts.Thishasnotonlyinvolvedaspurtinthe
constructionofartcentersandrenewedlifeforAmericanmuseumsbuthasalsoledtotheextensiveadoptionof
newtechniquessuchasvideotapeorstereophonicsoundtomakeeasilyavailableinthehomecultural
pleasuresthatpreviouslyrequiredagreatexpenditureoftimeandmoney.Inaddition,closedcircuittelevision
hasopenedupnewopportunitiesforbothlocalandevenhomebaseduniversityormuseumsponsoredadult
education.Cultureandeducationhavethereforeceasedtobearistocraticprivilegestheyhaveincreasingly
becomeanoptionavailabletomoreandmoreAmericansaswellasasometimesostentatioussymbolofnew
opulence.
Economicprogressandelevatedsocialexpectationshaveprecipitatedaninfluxintocollegesand
universitiesoflargenumbersofyoungpeoplefromfamilieswithnopreviousbackgroundofhighereducation.
Ofthesome4.3millionfamilysupportedcollegestudentsin1966,63percentcamefromhomesinwhichthe
headofthefamilyhadnevercompletedasingleyearincollege.Morestrikingstillisthefactthat30percent,or
almostonehalfoftheabove63percent,camefromhomesinwhichtheheadofthefamilyhadnothadeven
fouryearsofhighschool.17 During19631969thenumberofmaleblackswhohadcompletedahighschool
educationincreasedfrom36to60percentthenumberofthosewhohadobtainedcollegedegreesalmost
doubledinjusttwoyears,from4percentin1963to7.5percentin1965.18 Asofthelate1960s,83percentof
sixteen toseventeenyearoldblackAmericanswerestillinschool,andtheproportiongoingtocollegewas
higherthanthatforthesameagebracketinWesternEurope.19
Totheextentthathighereducationhasbecomethemostimportantmeansofsocialadvancementin
America,theabovefiguresareevidenceofpotentiallysignificantupwardmovement.*Thus,asof1969some37
percentofallcollegestudentscamefrombluecollar,service,orfarmfamilies.20 Educationalbackgroundand
intellectualscientificachievementareincreasinglybecomingthemeasureofsocialworth.Thisdevelopmentis
ofparticularimportancetoracerelations.Neitherthehuckster'sshortcutnortheHoratioAlgerstoryoffers
muchincentiveorpromisetomillionsofyoungblacks,butmasseducation,combinedwiththeeconomy's
expandedneeds,doesprovideawidechannelforsatisfyingindividualambitionsonasociallysignificantscale.
Educationcouldthereforeserveasthepointofdepartureforattainingasociallyegalitarianandpolitically
democraticmultiracialsociety.Theattainmentofsuchasocietywouldbeahistoric victory formankind,forthe
brutalfactisthatracerelationsaremostvulnerabletotheirrationalforcesofhumanmotivation:thevisual,
instinctive,exclusivisticselectionthatoperatesalmostautomaticallyontheracialfront.

TheUncertaintyofProgress
ButitmustimmediatelybeaddedthatbeforeAmericafullybecomessuchasocietyindeed,inorder
forittobecomesuchasocietytheunassimilatedlegacyofindustrialAmericaaswellastheunusualproblems
inherentintheAmericantransitiontoatechnetronicsocietymustfirstbesurmounted.Theinitiallyreluctantbut
increasinglywidespreadsocialrecognitionofthefactthatthepasthasstilltobesettledwithevenwhilethenew

*
Onerelatedandintriguingaspectofthisdevelopmentistheincreasingentranceintothecountry'spoliticaleliteofpreviously
nonparticipatingethnicandracialgroups.Jews,Negroes,Italians,and,toalesserextent,PolesandGreeks,havebeenmakinganappearance
inthenationalgovernmentonlevelsandonascalepreviouslyrarelyattainedby non"WASPS."Whileprecisestatisticsarenotavailable,
thesenew"elites"whoseAmericanismissometimesasintenseasitisnewmayhavehadsomethingtodowiththereappearanceofthe
activist,nationalist,dynamicorientationnotedbyDavidRiesman inhis"SomeQuestionsabouttheStudyofAmericanNationalCharacterin
theTwentiethCentury," AnnalsoftheAmericanAcademyofPoliticalandSocialScience, March1967,especiallyp.47.

81
isbeingharnessedhascreatedaninflammablesituationthathasalreadytakenitstollandcouldgrowworse.
Aneconomicrecessionthwartingarousedhopeswouldhaveespeciallycalamitousconsequencesforthe
stabilityoftheAmericansocialorder.Muchclearlydependsontheexpandingeconomy'scapacitytoabsorband
ameliorateexistingtensions.Economicgrowthatarelativelystableandhighrateofapproximatelythreeanda
halfpercentperannum,allowingforannualvariations,seemstobethe sinequanon forthecontinuedevolution
ofAmericansocietytowardasituationinwhichlibertyandequalitywillbuttressbutnotvitiateoneanother.
Thisisparticularlytrueofpovertyandracerelations,inwhichevensocialgoodwillwillbepowerlessto
accomplishmuchintheeventofasignificanteconomic slowdown.Thefirstvictimsofarecessionwillbethe
poorandtheblacks,whoalwaysabsorbadisproportionateamountofthesuffering,owingtoeconomic
malfunction.*
Unfortunately,itisnotevencertainthattherelativelystrongpaceofeconomicgrowthinthe1960swill
sufficetoliquidatethe unfinishedbusinessofAmerica'sindustrialization,bothinabsolutetermsorrelativeto the
growthofsocietyatlarge. Indeed,whatamountstothecoexistenceoftworatherseparateAmericanecon
omiesthe laggingandevendecayingindustrialeconomy(increasinglyexposedtomoreeffectiveforeign
competition,highlyvulnerabletocyclicalswings,andemployingthepoorerandlessskilledworkers)andthe
expandingtechnetroniceconomy(basedonaerospaceandotherfrontierindustriesandemployingthebetter
trained,bettereducated,andbetterpaidworkers)hasmadetheassimilationandupgradingofthepoorer
segmentsofAmericansocietymoredifficult.
Thisgapiscomplicatingtheeffortstocreatearacialharmonybasedonbothlibertyandequality.The
NegroshouldhavebeenintegratedintoAmericansociety during theAmericanindustrialrevolution.
Unfortunately,thatrevolutioncamebeforeAmerica,ifnottheNegro,wasreadyforfullintegration.If theblack
Americanhadrepresentedonlyaneconomiclegacyofthepreindustrialage,perhapshecouldhavebeenmore
effectivelyintegratedintotheindustrialage.Butracialprejudicekepthimfromacquiringthenecessaryskills.
Theproblemiscumulative,andtodaythemoreadvancedAmericanurbanindustrialregionsarefindingit
difficulttointegrateblacksbotharacialminorityandAmerica'sonlyfeudallegacypreciselybecausethese
regionsaremovingintoanewandmorecomplexphasethatrequiresmoredevelopedsocialskills.
Paradoxically,itcanbearguedthattheSouthtoday standsabetterlongrangechanceoffullyintegratingthe
blacks:Americanconsciousnessischanging,theblackhasawakened,andtheAmericanSouthisbeginningto
move intotheindustrialage.Itmight,ifitmovesrapidlyenough,taketheblackalongwithit.21
Thelargerquestionstillremains:Willthepaceofdevelopmentberapidenoughtomeetthechallenge
posedbythesimultaneousandmutuallyreinforcingprocessessetinactionbytheblackAmerican'sawakening
andbyhisdisillusionmentwiththeAmericansystem?Numerouspublicopinionpollsrecordtheblack'sgrowing
convictionthathehasnochoicebuttooptoutofthepoliticalsystem,torelyonexclusiveness,evenonviolence,
asthebasicmeansofprogress.22 Thismoodwasabsentfromtheexperienceofwhiteimmigrantgroups,which
onthewholeaspiredtoentertheAmericancommunityasrapidlyaspossible.Incontrast,manyblacksseein
exclusivenessandinbuildingaseparatecommunitytheonlywaytothefutureafuturethattothemnolonger
necessarilyimpliesaneventualmergerwiththelargerAmericansociety.
Norisitcertainthattheentranceoflargenumbersofblacksintointegrateduniversitieswillhelpto
alleviateracialtensions.Thoughthisdevelopmentisnecessarytopromotefullscaleparticipationoftheblackin
theUnitedStates,severalshorttermfactorspointtoanincreaseinracialtensionsasaresultoftheincreased
educationalopportunitiesforblacks.Firstofall,itisuncertainthatblackgraduateswillinfactobtainthe
positionstheywillfeelentitledto secondly,thisdifficultyislikelytobemagnifiedbythepredispositionof
someblackstoinsistonseparate"blackstudies"programs,notsubjecttoprevailingacademicstandards,which
willinevitablyproduceingrowingnumberstheAmericanequivalentofthefrustratedandbadlyeducated
pseudointelligentsiaoftheglobalghettosfinally,astheAmericanblackgainsselfconfidenceandashissocial
positionimproves,hemaytemporarilybelessresponsivetotheargumentthathisprogressdependson
cooperationwithwhites,andhissharpenedawarenessofsocialinjusticeislikelytobeexpressedinamore
radicalpoliticalposturethatisindifferenttowhitesensitivities.
Theproblemofracerelationsgivesaddedurgencytothebroaderquestionoftheplaceofviolencein
Americansociety.Whitesocietymaycontinuetoproclaimthat"violencecannotbuild abettersociety,"butthe
blackwillcontinuetoseehisinferiorsocialconditionasthebasicreality.Totheextentthatviolenceprecipitates
burstsofreformdesignedbythewhitecommunitytoredressinjustices,theargumentthatviolenceisnecessary
*
The3.2percentunemploymentfigureattheendof1968meantthat21.5percentofallblackteenagerswereunemployed(forwhitesthe
correspondingfigurewas11.6percent)andthat3.4percentofblackmenwerewithoutjobs(forwhitesthefigurewas1.6percent).

Witha4percentgrowthinGNP(inconstantdollars,whichishigherthantheaveragegrowthsince1960),therearelikelytobecloseto17
millioninpoorhouseholdsin1974comparedto26millionin1967.Ofthese,morethan4millionwillbefamiliesheadedbynonaged
workingmalescompared to10millionin1967"(DepartmentofHealth,Education,andWelfare,TowardaSocialReport, Washington,D.C.,
p.47).
"In1947thepoorest20percentofthepopulationreceived5percentoftheincome,anditheldthissame5percentsharein1964.. ..The
secondlowestfifthgot12percentin1947and12percentin1964.Inshort,40percentoftheAmericanpeoplewereheldtoa17percent
shareoftheincomethroughouttheentirepostwarperiod.The5percentatthetopgotaboutthesameproportionasthat40percent"
(MichaelHarrington,TowardaDemocraticLeft,NewYork,1968,p.26).

NewYorkCitystatisticsindicate,forexample,thatwhitedropoutshavebetteremploymentopportunitiesthanblackhighschoolgraduates
(TheNegroAlmanac, NewYork,1967,chartonp.292).

82
toblackprogressbecomesstrongerandstronger.Ontheotherhand,thisrelianceonviolencetendstoblurthe
distinction,importanttothefunctioningofanysociety,betweenpoliticalandcriminalviolence(wasEldridge
Cleaverapoliticaloracriminalfugitive?),anditpromptsbothlegallyformalizedmassiverepressionsbysociety
atlargeandrationalizationsofviolencebythemoreliberalandeducatedsegmentseitherresultdestroysso
ciety'scapacityfordiscriminatingbetweenthenecessityfororderandtheimperativeofchange.
Asociety'scapacityformakingsuchjudgmentsisboundtobeunderminedbythedegreetowhichit
becomespsychologicallyinuredtolivingwithviolenceandtoacceptingviolenceasameansforsolvingits
problems.ThatAmerica'ssocialhistory,aswellasitspoliticalhistory,hasbeenviolentisnotdisputed.That
Americahasbeenamoreviolentsocietythanothersisdebatable.* Butthe questionofviolencegoesbeyond
statisticsorevenracerelationsitinvolvesthebasicpatternofanation'sculture andthewayinwhichasociety
solvesitsproblems.
Todaytheproblemsofpovertyorofracerelationsdemandadeptpsychologicalsensitivitytonuances
andrestraintinbalancingmanycomplexandcompeting individualandgrouprights.Thisisapointwhichmany
impatientreformersoverlook.Theassimilationofanyethnicallyorraciallydistinctivegroupintothemajority
cultureispossibleonlyinacontextofstableinstitutionsandvaluesexpressedinorderlyprocedures.Itis
possibletomaintainmajoritydominationbyviolenceortoreversethepowerrelationsbetweenracesbyviolent
revolution,buttocreateharmoniousracerelationsasocietymustbeconditionedtoacceptchangepeacefullyand
to resolvesocialissuesnonviolently.fButthis automaticallytendstostrengthentheforcesthatopposechange,
whethertheseforcesrepresententrenchedinterestsor,moregenerally,ingrainedsocialorracialattitudes.A
socialsettinginwhichalargepartofthepopulationcomestoidentifyviolencewithchangeandtoequateorder
withtheabsenceofchangeisasettinginwhichanescalationofconflictbecomesunavoidable.

TheFutilityofPolitics
Theresponsivenessofpoliticalinstitutionstothe needforchangeisofgreatimporttoAmerica'sfuture.
SomecitizensseethepresentAmericansystemasincapablenotonlyofpromotingtheneededsocialchangesbut
evenofreactingtopressureonbehalfofsuchchanges.Insuchasetting,proceduresandinstitutionsthatintimes
ofstabilityarevauntedfortheirdeliberatenessbecomeintimesofmorerapidchangeexamplesofdelay,ineffi
ciency,andevenfundamentalinjustice. Thegovernmentasanexpressionofthenationalwillincreasinglytends

*
TheNationalCommissionontheCausesandPreventionofViolence,initsreport"ViolenceinAmerica:HistoricalandComparative
Perspectives"(NewYork,1969),states:"Despiteitsfrequency,civilstrifeintheUnitedStateshastakenmuchlessdestructiveformsthanin
manynonWesternandsomeWesterncountries....ThenationhasexperiencednointernalwarssincetheCivilWarandalmostnoneofthe
chronicrevolutionaryconspiracyandterrorismthatplagueddozensofothernations....
"AlthoughabouttwohundredandtwentyAmericansdiedinviolentcivilstrifeinthe5yearsbeforemid1968,therateof1.1permillion
populationwasinfinitesimalcomparedwiththeaverageofallnationsof238deathspermillion,andlessthantheEuropeanaverageof2.4
permillion"(pp.799800).
Ontheotherhand,alaterreportbythesamecommissionpointsoutthat"acomparisonofreportedviolentcrimeratesinthiscountrywith
thoseinothermodern,stablenations showstheUnitedStatesraperateclearleader.Ourhomiciderateismorethantwicethatofourclosest
competitor,Finland,andfrom4to12timeshigherthantheratesinadozenotheradvancedcountries,includingJapan,Canada,Englandand
Norway"(ascitedby TheNewYorkTimes,November24,1969).

Thoughitmaynotbemoreviolentthanothersocieties,contemporaryAmericaispsychologicallypermeatedbyviolence.Thisisnot
onlyandnotevenlargelybecauseofthedramaticassassinationsofthe 1960s.ItisaboveallattributabletoAmericantelevision,almost
entirelycontrolledbythreeprofitorientedcorporationsandonlylooselycheckedbythenationalgovernment.In1969theUniversityof
PennsylvaniaSchoolofCommunicationsreportedin theresearchstudypreparedfortheNationalCommissionontheCausesandPrevention
ofViolencethatintwoweeksofviewingthethreemajornetworksfrom4:00to10:00P.M. ithadcounted790personskilledorinjuredin
televisiondramas(notnewsreports),andthatithadfound15actsofviolenceforeveryhouroftelevisionviewing(asreportedin TheNew
YorkTimes,July6,1969).Tothisdubiousrecordshouldbeaddedsensationseeking"documentaries"suchasNBC's"exclusiveinterview,"
prominently advertisedinadvance,withSirhanSirhan,RobertKennedy'sconvictedassassin,filmed(accordingtoNBC'sadvertisements)
"thedayafterSirhanwasformallysentencedtodie."
Foraperceptivediscussionofthetelevisionmagnates'attitudetowardtheireducationalsocialresponsibilities,seeHarrington,Towarda
DemocraticLeft,pp.ig20.tThisisnottodenythatviolencedidplayaconstructivesocialroleatdifferentstagesofhistory.Inoverthrowing
tyrannyorindefyingexploitation,violence hasoftenactedashistory'sscalpel.Theexaltationofhistoricalviolenceshouldnot,however,be
carriedtoofar.BarringtonMoore,inhis SocialOriginsofDictatorshipandDemocracy (Boston,1966),suggeststhatthephysicalcostof
revolutionaryregimesshouldnotbeheldagainstthem,fortheabsenceofarevolutionmighthavebeenevenmorecostly.Hedoesnot,
however,examinethepossibilitythatthereformsundertakenbyrevolutionaryregimes,oftenwithmonstrousbrutality,mighthavebeenless
physicallycostlyifalternativeschemesofreformsuccessfullyundertakenbyothernationshadbeenfollowed.Indeed,itcanbearguedthat
muchoftheviolenceundertakenbyrevolutionaryregimeswasinfactdysfunctionaltothepositivetaskstheyhad setthemselves.Thereal
comparison,therefore,shouldbebetweenthephysicalcostsofalternativewaysofchangingsocietyratherthanbetweenthecostofnot
changingitandthecostofchangingitbyveryviolentmeans.
Historicaljudgmentsaside,it isnoteworthythatmodernmanisstilleducatedintermsthatpromoteaggressivefeelings.IntheWest,films
andtelevisionemphasizeviolence,andtheteachingofhistorystresseswars,victories,defeats,andconflictbetween"good"and"bad"
nations. Theseaggressiveinstinctsarealsoexpressedbychildren'sgamesaswellasbyadultformsofentertainment.Incommunistcountries
ideologysimilarlystimulatesaggressivefeelingsandhostilitytoward"evil"forces,thuscontinuingthemorefundamentaldichotomies
introducedbythereligioustradition.

Americanjusticeisaparticularlyglaringexample.Itisasantiquatedasitisoftenabsurd.Itappearstohavebenefitedneitherbythelegal
reformscarriedoutdecadesagoinEurope,norevenbytheEnglishpatternofrelativelyswiftjustice.Itsextraordinarilycumbersome
procedures,dominatedbytheatricalstratagemsandshowmanshipandinvolvinglengthyandcomplexappeals,leadtodelaysandeven
occasionallytoresultsthatdefythemostelementaryconceptsofjustice.ThetrialofMartinLutherKing'skiller duringwhichperiodBay's
lawyerscompetedinsellinghismemoirswasatravestySirhanSirhan'sprotractedshowinLosAngeleswashardlydictatedbytheneeds
ofabstractjusticehighlypaid"exclusives"bythekillersofSharonTatewereadisgrace.Sovietsecrettrialsarecertainlydeplorable,butare

83
tobeseenasunabletodirectandcoordinatenationalchangeeffectively.Itappearsneithertoarticulatenational
goalsnortodevelopasenseofnationaldirection.Thisfeelingofuncertaintyaboutnationalpurposeisalso
magnifiedbythefadingof theestablishedpoliticalelitethathasguidedthenationsinceWorldWarII.Primarily
composedofmencomingfromtheeasternseaboardandconnectedwithlegal,corporate,andhighfinancial
circles,thepoliticaleliteprovidedasenseofcontinuity withintheframeworkofapragmaticliberalconsensus
onthenatureandcharacterofmodernindustrialsociety.Therelativestabilityofthelate1940sandthe1950s
reflectedthatconsensus.Latelythiselitehascomeunderincreasingchallengebothfrom thenewer,
geographicallymoredispersedeconomicinterestsassociatedwiththenewscientificdefenseandfrontier
industries,andfromthemoreideologicallyinclinedintellectualforces,whicharebecomingmoreinfluential.
Thebreakupofthepostwarelitehighlightsthedichotomy betweenthequalitiesnecessarytogain
politicalpowerinAmericandemocracyandthosenecessarytoexerciseeffectiveleadershipofthatdemocracy.
Thecourtshipofthepressandthemassmediaisanecessaryconcomitantofcourtingthemasses,sincethe
massesareinfluencednotonlybydirectappealbutalsothroughtheintermediaryofan"image,"whichisinpart
builtupbythemediathemselves.Thedesirabilityofthisimageputsapremiumonadvocatingtheimmediately
popularandthefashionableratherthanonformulatingbroaderobjectivesbyfocusingattentiononbasic
philosophicalquestionsconcerningthemeaningofamodernsociety.Sincesocialconsensushasbeen
fragmentedbythepaceofchangeandsociety'svaluestructurehasitselfbecomehighlytactical,thelarger
strategicquestionstendtobeobscured.
Tomakemattersworse,theAmericaninstitutionalframeworkhasnotkeptupwiththepaceofsocietal
change.Giventhecountry'senormoustransformationthroughindustrialgrowthandcommunicationsmobility,
itsfederalarrangementshavebecomeincreasinglydevoidofeconomicorgeographicsubstance.These
arrangementsarekeptalivebylocaltraditionalsentimentandvestedinterests,ratherthanbytheiractual
functionalutility.Thepriceofthishasprimarilybeenpaidbythenewbigcities,forwhosegrowththe
constitutionalstructuremadelittleallowanceandwhichhaveconsequentlybeendeprivedofthemeansofcoping
withtheirdilemmas.
Thenationalgovernment,particularlybecauseofthetwopartysystem,hasalsofounditdifficultto
developtheneededmechanismsforopenlychannelingthenewmajorcompetitiveforcesonthepoliticalscene,
anditstilloperatesasifthepolitical"game"revolvedaroundthetworelativelyloosealliancesofinterestgroups
thatlargelyreflectedtheindustrialruraldilemmasoftheearlierage.Ingeneral,thatarrangementhadbeen
effectiveinexpressing,aswellasmoderating,thepopularwillandinstrikingabalancebetweencontinuityand
change.Nonetheless,itisworthnotingthatinpasttimesofstressandsharperchoicesthetwopartysystem
occasionallybrokeup,thoughonlytemporarily.It wouldappearthatthebreakupofthetwopartysystemis
againunderway,preciselybecausethedilemmasofthecountryhavebecomeintensifiedbytheextraordinary
paceofchangeandbythewideningspectrumofoftenincompatiblechoicesitstimulates.
Asaresult,theindustrialruralorliberalconservativeframeworknolongeradequatelyencompasses
existingcompetitivepoliticalforces:theagrarianconservativeanticommunistandlargelycongressionally
basedbastionthenewindustrialmilitaryscientificconglomerates'thatuneasilycollaboratewiththeformeron
politicalideologicalgroundsbutareinconflictwithitintermsofeconomicthrustandtheemerging,veryloose,
welfarecivilrightsintellectualcoalitionthatsharessomeofthesecond'ssocioeconomicdynamicsbutisinbasic
conflictwithboththefirstandthesecondinthematterofpriorities.Thetwolatterforceshaveoperatedlargely
outsideofdirectparticipationinthelegislativeprocessofthecountry,andsoreflectthedegreetowhichthe
representativeaspectsofAmericandemocracyhavefailedtokeepupwithsocialchange.*
SeveralpoliticalsubAmericasthuscoexistuneasily,andthoughAmericaisbeginningtothinkofitself
asanentity,eachsubAmericatendstoprojectontothewholeitsownperceptionofAmericanreality.The
relationshipbetweenthesesubAmericasisthereforetenseeachtendstoseekitsownpoliticalexpressionrather
thantomergeinthelargerwhole.Inthe1968presidentialcontest,RobertKennedypersonifiedthepoliticsof
anxiety,passionatelyarticulatingthegrievancesoftheunderprivilegedeventhoughhesharedthefearsand
uncertaintiesofestablishedAmericanswhosensedanddesiredmajorchangebutdidnotquiteknowwhatthat
changeoughttobe23 EugeneMcCarthywasthepetulantspokesmanofthepoliticsofnostalgia,lackadaisically
promisingtotakedownthefencesaroundtheWhiteHouselawn,respondingtothesuburbanites'desirefora

Americanjudicialcircusesreallyneededtoprotectthedefendantandrenderfairjudgment?
Atthesametime,theintermeshingofprivateandpublicinterests,exemplifiedbytheoutsideeconomicinterestsofcongressmenand
senators,reinforcesmanyAmericans'inclinationtodismissthepoliticalprocessasdominatedbyinherentlyconservative,socially
unresponsive,profitorientedinterests.Forexample,8membersoftheHouseCommerceCommitteehavefinancialinterestsinrailroads,
airlines,radiostations,andmovingcompanies,allofwhichcomeundertheirlegislativepurview90membersoftheHouse,including12on
theBankingCommittee,haveinterestsinbanks,savingsandloanassociations,orbankholdingcompanies77members,including19onthe
JudiciaryCommittee,maintainprivatelawpractices44membershaveinterestsinoilorgascompanies,andsoon.(TheNewYorkTimes,
May11,1969).
*
Theheavyrepresentationofsmalltownlawyersissymptomaticofthiscondition.Incontrast,thefirstNationalAssemblyofFrance'sFifth
Republiccontained67professorsandteachers,48medicalmen,45highprofessionalcivilservants,34lawyers,32workers,27businessmen,
25scientistsandengineers,20journalists,andsoon.ItisevidentthatfromarepresentativestandpointtheFrenchAssemblymoreaccurately
reflectedthecharacterofarelativelymodernsociety.Thebenefitsofgreaterscientificcompetenceinsociety'srepresentativebodiesare
beginningtoberecognizedinBritain:"TheHouseofCommonswouldbenefitenormouslybyhaving,say,50engineerswhocouldensure
thatparliamentarydiscussionsweremorecloselygearedtothetechnicalrealitiesoftheday,"AnthonyWedgwoodBenn,Ministerof
Technology,wroteinhisweeklymagazine EngineeringNews(quotedbytheAssociatedPress,August21,1965).

84
pastorallifeandforsocialjusticeprovidedthelatterisimplementedatadistancefromthemHubert
Humphreypreachedthepoliticsofcompromisebetweenclassesandraces,andhispassionevokedtheclass
conflictatmosphereoftheNewDealGeorgeWallaceexpressedthepoliticsofresentment,speakingforthose
Americanswhofeltthatmuchofthe socialandracialprogresswasbeingpromotedattheirexpenseby
AmericanswhoweremorecomfortablyestablishedRichardNixonpracticedthepoliticsofcaution,andhewon
becausesignificantnumbersofAmericansfromtheseveralsubAmericasbecamefearfulthat"their"America
wasendangeredandwereuncertainastowhatthenewAmericamightholdinstoreforthem.
Thisinclinationtostresspersonalinterestsreflectedtheimpotencefeltbysomeconstituencies
concerningtheshapingofnationalpolicy.Manycitizenssensedchangebutfeltthattheyhadlittlecontrolover
it.Inatimeofrelativecontinuity,presidentialandcongressionalelectionsservedasanacceptableand
personallysatisfyingmethodofexpressingahighlygeneralizedpolitical preference.Inatimeofdiscontinuity
andincreasinglyfragmentedconsensus,24 nationalelectioncampaignsbecamealessadequateformfor
expressingthepopularwill.Thepresidentialelection,especiallygiventheimportancetelevisionconferson
personallooksandstyle,hasformanybecomeanationalpageantratherthananexerciseofbasicchoicesmeant
toinfluencethenation'sdirection.Thesechoicesareinsteadmadeincrementallybyadministrativefiatorin
congressionalcommitteessinceboththeseprocessesarelargelyremovedfrompublicview,theyaremore
responsivetoinfluencesfromthevariousspecialinterestswithwhichadministratorsorcongressmenareoften
incloserelationshipthantheyaretothevoters.
Relatedtothissituationistheoftnotedremoteness,complexity,andimpersonalityofbothpublicand
privateinstitutions.Astheoldtraditionalaffiliationsoftheagrariansocietycrumbled,theindustrialage
produceditsequivalentsthroughunionsandprofessionalsocieties.Butunionsarenolongervitalinstitutions,25
andthe"atomization"ofmodernlifeaccentuatesthecitizens'feelingsofimpotence.Socialinstitutionsappearto
provideneitheranoutletforindividualidealismnorarapidresponsetocollectivedemands.Moreover,thestate
orabigprivateorganizationinescapablyschematizessocialdilemmasinordertocopewiththeircomplexities
thoughthisschematizationpermitsalargescaleresponse,itfrequentlyconflictswiththeindividuallyfeltdimen
sionsofthesameproblemandthereforelimitstheindividual'sfreedomevenasitfailstoperceivethebest
solutiontohisproblems.Thus,themorethestatetriestohelp,themoreittendstoreinforcetheindividual's
feelingofimpotence.
Theresultisparadoxical:thesituationdescribedstimulatesamoreintensepublicinterestinpolitics
whileincreasingthesenseofthefutilityofpoliticsitfragmentsnationalconsensuswhilepromptinglouder
appealsforasenseofcommonnationaldirectionfinally,itsimultaneouslyconfrontstheindividualwiththe
twindangersoffragmentationandofexcessivecontrol.Indeed,nationalpolicyseemstofragmentasnational
governmentexpands.26 Asaresult,manyAmericansfeelthattheirfreedomiscontracting.Thisfeelingseemsto
beconnectedwiththeirlossofpurpose,sincefreedomimplieschoiceofaction,andactionrequiresanawareness
ofgoals.IfAmerica'spresenttransitiontothetechnetronicagedoesnotresultinpersonallysatisfyingachieve
ments,thenextphasecouldbeoneofsullenwithdrawalfromsocialandpoliticalinvolvement,aflightfrom
socialandpoliticalresponsibilitythroughinnerretreatandoutwardconservatism.
Inthemeantime,thescientificandtechnologicalrevolution,itselfsobasicallycerebralincharacter,still
tendstoaffectAmericansocietyinalargelyunplannedfashionthatisdeterminedbydecisionsandimpulses
reflectingthevaluesandinterestsoftheearlierAmerica.Intellectualpowerismobilizedto answer"how?"but
nottoask"why?"Americaconsequentlyrisksbecoming"acivilizationcommittedtothequestforcontinually
improvedmeanstocarelesslyexaminedends."27 Thepoliticalsystemhasstilltodevelopmechanismsand
procedurestoraiseand answerthesecondquestion.Mattersthatfundamentallyaffectthenationalwayoflife,
suchastheconstructionofasupersonicaircraft,orthatposeanecologicalaswellasahumanthreat,suchas
industrialpollutionorradiationfromatomicenergyplants,arehandledbyadecisionmakingprocessthat
inhibitstheopportunitiesforanintelligentexpressionofthepopularwill.(AccordingtotheNationalScience
Foundation'sseventeenthannualreport,lessthan5percentofthemorethan200,000scientistsandengineers
employedbythefederalgovernmentin1967wereconcernedwithsocialorpsychologicaldisciplines.Moreover,
accordingtothe1963reportoftheCouncilofEconomicAdvisers,defense,space,andenergyresearchwere
absorbingapproximatelytwothirdsofthescientistsworkingonthenation'sscientificandtechnological
frontiers.Inaddition,oursocietydevotesrelativelylimitedresourcestoasystematicconcernwithsocial
problems,whileitdevotesenormousresourcestoeconomic,technical,andscientificmatters.Table13tellspart
ofthestory.)Evenhighereducation,bynotfocusingontheunderlyingquestionsbutbyemphasizingtechniques,
runstheriskofbecomingmiseducation:ofcreatinglargenumbersof"educated"peoplewhothinktheyknow
theanswers,butwhoinfactdonotevenknowthetrulyimportantquestions.28
ThethirdAmericanrevolutionhighlightsthesharpcontrastbetweenourtechnicalsuccessandour
socialfailure,anditraisesbasicquestionsconcerningthecontrolanddirectionofthethrustoftechnological
innovation.Howarechoicesmade?Whyaretheymade?Bywhomaretheymade?Whatvaluesareinvolvedin
thesechoices,andhowcantheybecrystallizedsothatacoherentpolicy

TABLE13. ANNUAL BUDGETIN MILLIONSOFDOLLARS

Industrial PhysicalHealth
GeneralMotors 20,210 Nat'lCancerInst. 186

85
Ford 12,240 Nat'lHeartAssn. 164
StandardOil(N.J.) 12,190 Nat'lInst,of Arthritis 141
GeneralElectric 7,180 Nat'lInst,ofNeurology 119
Chrysler 5,650 Nat'lInst,ofAllergy 90
MobileOil 5,250 Nat'lInst,ofChildHealth 66
Texaco 4,430 AmericanCancerSociety 59
U.S.Steel 4,360 AmericanHeartAssn. 37
I.B.M. 4,250 Nat'lTuberculosisAssn. 27

SocialandPsychological
NationalInst,ofMentalHealth* 31
StanfordResearchInst.* 18
MenningerFoundation 9.5
PlanningResearchCorp.* 8
Inst,forSocialResearch 5.5AmericanInst.forResearchin
BehavioralSciences 5
BrookingsInstitution 5
HumanResourcesResearchOffice 4.5
MentalHealthResearchInst. 2
Source:ThomasJeffersonResearchCenter,JuneJuly1969,p.5.
*Approximateportionofbudgetallocatedtosocialproblems.

canbeshaped?Thesequestions increasinglybesetallmodernsocieties,butgiventheextensivesocialscopeof
contemporaryAmericanscienceandtechnology,thischallengeisespeciallyimportantintheUnitedStates
becauseitaffectsandpotentiallythreatensthemostintimateaspectsofAmericanlife.
Sinceitappearstruethat"thissocietyhaschosentoemphasizetechnologicalchangeasitschiefmode
ofcreativeexpressionandbasisforeconomicgrowth,"29 itfollowsthatthissociety'smostimperativetaskisto
defineaconceptualframeworkinwhichtechnologicalchangecanbegivenmeaningfulandhumaneends.Un
lessthisisdone,thereistherealdangerthatbyremainingdirectionlessthethirdAmericanrevolution,so
pregnantwithpossibilitiesforindividualcreativityandfulfillment,canbecomesociallydestructive.

2.TheNewLeftReaction
Arevolutionnotonlybreedsitsownchildrenitrepelsthem.Itisunderstandablethatasocietywhichputsa
premiumonchange,whichmakesknowledgethebasicvehicleofinnovation,whichvastlyexpandsthe
institutionsofadvancedlearning,whichforthefirsttimeinhistorycreatesalargeclassofpeoplefree
throughouttheirlateadolescenceandearlymaturityofthelimitationsinherentintheburdenofselfsupport,
whichendowsintellectualactivitywithahighdegreeofsocialprestigebutnodirectpoliticalpower,should
breedrebelswhoaretheproductsoftheveryrevolutionthattormentsandrepelsthem.Thesupremeironyof
thatlooseandvolatilesociopoliticalphenomenonofcontemporarymiddleclassAmericanamedtheNewLeft
isthatitisitselfthecreationofthetechnetronicrevolutionaswellasareactionagainstit.

InfantileIdeology
TheNewLeft,acomplexandelusiveentitymadeupofaratherfluidcombinationofindividualsympathizers
(especiallyfromamongtheNewYorkCityliteraryestablishmentandsomeprofessorialcircles)andascattering
ofneworganizations,ofwhichStudentsforaDemocraticSociety(SDS)hasbecomethebestknown,isthe
politicalideologicalexpressionofamoreextensiverestlessnessamongAmericanmiddleclassuniversityyouth.
Asofthelate1960s,membershipinthemoremilitantorganizationswasrelativelylimited,butinmomentsof
stress(suchasconfrontationswiththeauthorities)theseorganizationswere quitesuccessfulinmobilizing
broadersupport.Moreover,atdifferenttimesandinresponsetodifferentissues,theNewLeftwasabletodraw
onthedeeprootedtraditionsofAmericanpopulism,Quakerpacifism,andthepreWorldWarIIlargely
immigrantimportedsocialismandcommunism.Thetensionbetweengenerationsaswellasawidespreadthough
passivealienationalsopromptedexpressionsofsolidaritywhichoccasionallycreatedtheimpressionofyouth's
massiveidentificationwiththegoals ofthemoremilitantNewLeft.*
TheouterboundariesoftheNewLeftare,therefore,imprecise.Atonetimeoranotheressentially
reformistmembersofthepoliticalestablishment,suchas RobertKennedyandEugeneMcCarthy,wereableto
siphonoffagreatdealofthevolatileyouthfulsupportthatotherwisewasattractedbythemoreextreme
tendenciesoftheNewLeft.TheNewLeftitself,however,tendedtobemoremilitantinitsrhetoric,more
sectarianinitsorganization,moreintellectuallyandgenerationallyexclusivethanthebroadercoalition

*
Itshould,however,benotedthatthenumberofstudents participatinginthemoreovertmanifestationsofmilitancyandstrifewasrelatively
limited.IntheperiodOctober1967May1969,onefifthoftheeruptionstookplaceonsixmajorcampuses:Berkeley,SanFranciscoState,
Columbia,Harvard,Universityof Wisconsin,andCornell.Ofthenation's2374colleges,therewereoutbreaksononly211campuses,andin
atotalof474suchconfrontationswithauthority6158arrestsweremade(accordingtodatacompiledfortheUnitedStatesSenateand
reportedin TheWashingtonPost, July2,1969).DuespayingmembersoftheSDSwereestimatedatabout6000thosevaguelysympathetic
tosomeNewLeftappeals,atabout700,000thetotalnumberofstudents,about7million (Fortune, specialissueonyouth,January1969).
ThenumberofSDSactivistswasestimatedinearly1969asrangingbetween70,000and100,000 (Guardian, January11,1969).

86
endeavoringtoforgethe"newpolitics"inAmerica.Thekeydifference,however,wastheNewLeft's
militancyamilitancyderivedfromthebeliefthatreformswillnolongersuffice.
Ithasoftenbeensaidthattherathersporadicidentificationofbroadsegmentsofyouthwiththemilitant
NewLeftreflectedthemoreintenseidealismandsocialconsciousnessofthecurrentcollegegeneration,
impatientwiththecrassmaterialismofitssocietyanddistressedbythepoliticalsystem'sdelayinmoving
against socialinjustice.Thisisdoubtlessso.Theyounghavebeenactiveinthestruggleforracialequalitythey
respondedinitiallywithenthusiasmtothecallofglobalserviceintheranksofthePeaceCorpstheyhave
flockedintotheranksofthemanydomesticeffortstomountastruggleagainsturbanpovertyandignorance.Itis
equallytruethattheestablishedsystemdidnotfullytapthatidealism.Theidealismoftheyoungrequireda
senseofdeliberatenationaleffortinordertogiveitfulfillment,anditwasnottotheyoungalonethatthiseffort
seemedtobelacking.Cumulatively,theresultingfrustrationscreatedanintensealienation,firstfromthe
politicalsystemandthenfromthesocioeconomicsystemasawhole.Bothweredeniedmorallegitimacy,and
thecombinationoffrustratedidealismandhistoricaluncertaintycreatedpropitiouscircumstancesforappeals
basedonpassionandadesireforasimpledichotomicformula.
Majorcatalystsforyouthfuldisillusionmentwithliberaldemocracy'sdeterminationandcapacityto
copewitheitheritsoldoritsnewproblemswereprovidedbytheVietnamwarandthewhitemajority's
indifferencetotheblackman'squestforequality.Bothreinforcedtheargumentthattheexistingsystemwas
preoccupiedwithselfpreservationandnotwithchange,andthatfederalfundswerereadilyavailableforremote
causesbutnotforcuringAmerica's immediateills.Bothalsoprovidedtheyoungwithconvenient
rationalizationsforfailingtocometogripswiththeintellectualcomplexityofourtimeandforturningtheir
backsonthedifficultandinescapablyslowtaskofsocialrenewal.
Thissamekind ofselfservingintellectualrationalizationforthemoreimmediatelyconvenientand
emotionallygratifyingpostureofcompletenegationalsoplaysapartinthebroaderstudentmalaise,whichthe
moremilitantNewLefthasbeenexploiting.Explanatorytheoriesofstudentmilitancyhavetypicallyplaced
majoremphasisonthepsychologicaldimensionofthecrisisofvaluesincontemporaryAmerica,onthestifling
ofthegenuineidealismoftheactivists.Forexample,BobertLieberthascogentlyarguedthat"itisnecessaryto
understandthelivesofthe participants[instudentmilitancy]ina'psychohistorical'context....Theresultisa
senseofthetenuousnessoflifewhichismanifestedmoreprofoundlyinitsunconsciousaspects.More
specifically,ithasprovidedthemwithasenseofurgencytoeffectchangesothatlifecangoon."30 Similarly,
KennethKenistonhasstressedthatinrejectingtheexistingsociety,thestudentisexpressing"arevulsionagainst
thenotionofquantity,particularly economicquantityandmaterialism,andaturntowardsconceptsofquality...
.Anothergoalofthenewrevolutioninvolvesarevoltagainstuniformity,equalization,standardizationandho
mogenization...."31
Studentparticipantshavealsotendedto stressthepsychologicaldimension.MarkGerzon'sTheWhole
WorldIsWatching, asympatheticaccountbyayoungHarvardundergraduate,putprimarystressonthe
psychologicalaspect,notingthatatbothHarvardandBerkeley"thepsychiatricunitsatthehealthservicesofthe
twouniversities,normallyquitebusy,foundthatthenumberofstudentscominginforpsychiatrichelpdeclined
dramaticallyduringtheperiodofconcertedpoliticalaction.Thestudents,itmustbeconcluded,foundan
externaloutletfortheirintenseconcernandsowerelesscagedintheirownminds."32 Thisdidnotmeanthat
theirpersonalproblemsweresolvedtheywere,however,sublimatedinsomethingbeyondthestudent.Gerzon
alsociteddatashowingthatbothmilitancyanddrugtakingweremoreprevalentamongstudentsinthe"soft"
sciences,whoweremorepreoccupiedwiththe"habitofselfanalysis"andlesspreparedforactiveparticipation
inthemorescientificallyorientedsociety.33
Thereisdoubtlessmuchmeritinthispsychologicalinterpretationofstudentmilitancy.Theexisting
systemandespeciallytheemergingsystemputsoextensiveapremiumonindividualcompetitionthatanxietyis
generatedearlyinlife.Partoftherebellionagainstauthorityineducationcanbeattributedtotheunderstandable
desireoftheyoungtogetawayfromacompetitivestructureinwhichsuccessorfailure,atsoearlyanage,has
suchpotentially lastingconsequences.Atthesametime,theweakeningofthefamilystructurecreatespressures
forcompensatorysourcesofpsychologicalreassurance,andpeergroupsbecomeimportantinsettingpatternsof
behaviorandproclaimedbeliefs.*
Inaddition,sohighlyrationalizedasocietyastheAmericantendstobeadangerouslyboringsociety.
Becauseofthis,sheerboredomasthesourceofalienationthatoftcitedcatchallexplanationshouldnotbe
underestimatedasanimportantcauseofrestlessness.Inoursociety"theexcitementoftheunexpected,the

*
AccordingtothePresident'sCommissiononLawEnforcementandtheAdministrationofJustice(1967):"InAmericainthe1960's,to
perhapsagreaterextentthaninanyotherplaceortime,adolescentsliveinadistinctsocietyoftheirown.Itisnotaneasysocietyto
understand,todescribe,or,forthatmatter,tolivein.Insomewaysitisanintenselymaterialisticsocietyitsmembers,perhapsin
unconsciousimitationoftheirelders,arepreoccupiedwithphysicalobjectslikeclothesandcarsandindeedhavebeenencouragedinthis
preoccupationbymanufacturersandmerchantswhohavediscoveredhowprofitabletheadolescentmarketis.Insomewaysitisanintensely
sensualsocietyitsmembersarepreoccupiedwiththesensationstheycanobtainfromsurfingordragracingormusicordrugs.Insome
ways,itisanintenselymoralisticsocietyitsmembersarepreoccupied withindependenceandhonestyandequalityandcourage.Onthe
wholeitisarebellious,oppositionalsociety,dedicatedtothepropositionthatthegrownupworldisasham.Atthesametime,itisa
conformingsocietybeinginexperienced,unsureofthemselvesand,infact,relativelypowerlessasindividuals,adolescentstoafargreater
extentthantheireldersconformtocommonstandardsofdressandhairstyleandspeech,andactjointlyingroupsorgangs"(The
ChallengeofCrimeinaFreeSociety, NewYork,1968,p.176).

87
invigoratingstateofmindproducedbyshiftsinpleasure,pain,tranquilityandanxietyarelargelymissing.
Underlyingtherewardsofbeingacoginthewheelcanbeasenseofboredomandthinnessofself."34 Toescape
fromitintoarevolutionary"happening"canbefreedom,andendlessdiscussionsexaltingone'spersonalrefusal
toparticipateinthe"automatedsociety,"the"gadgeteconomy,"and"corruptingaffluence"becomeaformof
grouptherapy.
Thismoodpromptsasearchfornewsourcesoffeelingandofauthority,whichthe simultaneously
impersonalandpermissiveexistinginstitutionsfailtoprovide.Itcreatesaresponsivenessto highlygeneralized
mobilizationagainstthe statusquo.Paradoxically,thevaguerandmoreambitiousthedemands,thecloserand
morerapidlynarrowingthegapbetweentherealityandhope.*
Finally,thereappearstobeanelementofuneasyguiltandselfgratificationinthemotivationofsome
ofthealienatedyoungpeople,andthisfactorshouldnotbeignored.Itiscertainlyeasiertocondemnthesocial
systemasawholethantoparticipateinVISTAprogramsorthePeaceCorps.Condemningthelatterasan
extensionofimperialismbecomesaselfservingexplanation:themilitants'"deepdissatisfactionwiththemselves
andtheirinnerconfusionisprojectedagainsttheinstitutionsoftheuniversityfirst,andagainstallinstitutionsof
societysecondarily,whichareblamedfortheirowninnerweakness."35 Thisconsiderationisespecially
importantinviewoftheeconomicallysecure,middleclasscharacterofmanyoftheyouthfulmilitants.Indeed,
theirselfindulgentlifestylesomewhatbeliestheirprofessedantimaterialism,especiallyastheirmaterial
existencetendstodependontherelativelygeneroussupportprovidedeitherbytheirparentsorbytheircolleges.
ThereareaccordinglysomeanalogiesbetweentherestlessAmericanmiddleclassstudentandtheLatin
Americanstudentrebels,whoaregenerallydrawnfromtheupperclassesandsimilarlyquitecertainthat,given
thesocialstructureoftheirsocieties,theycancountonarelativelysuccessfulandmateriallyrewardinglife,
whatevertheoutcomeoftheirstudies.
Theoutlookofalienatedbutidealisticyoungpeople,incontrasttothatoftheactivistpoliticalideology
ofthe numericallymuchsmallerNewLeft,canperhapsbecharacterizedasideologicalinfantilism:relyingon
psychologyastheirintellectualsource,theyusethecurrentpoliticalslogansoftheadultworld(freedom,
equality,andsoon)butactasiftheworldwereagivenconstant.Forexample,inGerzon'sbookthereisno
discussionofhowracialinjusticecanbeeliminated,howtheeconomyshouldcreatetheneededwealth,orwho
shouldmaketheplanesfly,thehospitalsoperate,thesocialsystemwork.The bookdoes,however,containthe
usualemotionalelementsofanideologicalsystem:theenemiesareadultsandtechnology,andtheself
righteousnessoftheidealisticyoungisrepeatedlystressed.Theresultingdoctrineisselfserving,sincethe
tedioustaskofmakingsocietyfunctionisabandonedtoothers,andthefutureisleftvague.

RevolutionariesinSearchofRevolution
TheextremeNewLeftrepresentsthephenomenonofmiddleclassrebellionagainstmiddleclasssociety.Itis
newinthesensethatinexploitingthepsychologicalunrestofsomeofthecollegegenerationitdrawsmuchof
itssupportfromasocialgroupwhichisitselfnotyetengagedinproducingsocialwealthandthereforecannotbe
representedasbeingexploitedonthewhole,thatgroupenjoyssocialandmaterialsecurity,butitis
psychologicallyinsecure,frustrated,bored,andguiltridden.Thisalsoappearstobethecasewithsomeolder
supportersoftheNewLeft,particularly thosefromtheintellectualcommunity,whoserecentlyacquiredsocial
andmaterialprestigeisintenselythreatenedbyasenseofpoliticalimpotenceandincreasingfearofhistorical
obsolescence.
ThedifficultyencounteredbythemilitantNewLeftinreachingthe"masses"isrelatedtothecurrent
situationintheUnitedStates.Duringthe1930s,radicalmovementshadarealbasisfortheirhopetoradicalize
theAmericanlaboringmasses,whoweresufferingfromthedeprivationsoftheGreatDepressionandonlythen
beginningtodeveloptheirownorganizationalconsciousness.Therewas,ineffect,atleastthepotentialfora
historicalsymbiosisbetweenradicalideologyandthefrustratedandimpoverishedmasses.
TodaythesituationisentirelydifferentforverymanyAmericans,thoughnotforall:ashasalready
beennoted,thechildrenofAmericanswithoutanyhighereducation(thebluecollarworkersofthestill
industrial,secondAmerica)areflockingintocolleges,andcontemporarysocietythroughitsapparentopenness
*
Involvedherewas"thegeneralAmericantendency,perhapsthehumantendency,toassumethatifthingsarepresentlybad,theywereonce
better,ratherthanrealizingthattheyarelikelytobe considered badpreciselybecausetheyaregettingbetter"(ChristopherJencksandDavid
Riesman,"TheRoleofStudentSubcultures,"TheRecord, TeachersCollege,ColumbiaUniversity,October1967,p.1[italicsinoriginal]).

Thepsychologicalinterpretationfitswellsomeofthepoints madebyKonradLorenz:"Duringandshortlyafterpubertyhumanbeingshave
anindubitabletendencytoloosentheirallegiancetoalltraditionalritesandsocialnormsoftheirculture,allowingconceptualthoughttocast
doubtontheirvalueandtolookaroundfornewandperhapsmoreworthyideals.Thereprobablyis,atthattimeoflife,adefinitesensitive
periodforanewobjectfixation,muchasinthecaseoftheobjectfixationfoundinanimalsandcalledimprinting.Ifatthatcrucialtimeof
life oldidealsprovefallaciousundercriticalscrutinyandnewonesfailtoappear,theresultiscompleteaimlessness,theutterboredomwhich
characterizestheyoungdelinquent.If,ontheotherhand,thecleverdemagogue,wellversedinthedangerousartofproducingsupranormal
stimulussituations,getsholdofyoungpeopleatthesusceptibleage,hefindsiteasytoguidetheirobjectfixationinadirectionsubservient
tohispoliticalaims.Atthepostpubertalagesomehumanbeingsseemtobedrivenbyanoverpoweringurgetoespouseacauseandfailingto
findaworthyonemaybecomefixatedonastonishinglyinferiorsubstitutes"(OnAggression, NewYork,1966,p.258).

Butonlyapotential.AsPaulBuhle,theeditorof RadicalAmerica,notedinthe radicalweekly Guardian (June21,1969):"...themost

notablecharacteristicofAmericansociety,incontrasttothatofEurope,hasbeentheabsenceofastable,classconsciousproletarian
movement."

88
reinforcestherelativefeelingofwellbeingcreatedbyitsmaterialadvances.ThatsecondAmericaincreasingly
seesitswaycleartothelongrangeopportunitiesheldoutbythenewscientifictechnologicalsociety.Itis
simplynotconvincedbytheNewLeft'sargumentthat"moreopportunityplusmoredemocracyequalsless
freedom."36 TheNewLeftholdslittlepromiseforthesecondAmerica,whosevariousanxietiestendratherto
expressthemselvesinapoliticallyconservativeandevenantiintellectualposture.
ThisleavesforNewLeftmilitants,stillinsearchofmasssupport,onlythefirstAmerica,thepre
industrialandtheindustriallymoribundAmerica.Butheretheproblemiscomplicatedbythefactthatmuchof
thatAmericaisblackandthatAmericanblacksareeitherinclinedtotakeadvantageofgraduallyenlarging
economicopportunitiesortoseektheiridentitythroughmilitantracialexclusiveness.Ineithercase,theNew
Lefttendstoappeartomanyofthemasaquarrelsome,notoverlyseriouswhitemiddleclassdiversion,perhaps
ofmarginalnuisancevalueinshakingsomewhiteestablishmentinstitutionsandinstirringsomewhite
consciences,butgenerallylackingconsistency,continuity,anddefinedpoliticaldirection.*
TheNewLeftmighthavebecomeamoreseriousandthereforemoreconstructivepoliticalforcein
theUnitedStatestodayifitsprophetshadbeenintellectuallyabletomovebeyondeithertheirdatedEuropean
radicalismortheir newerescapistantirationalism. Forexample,modernsocietyposesespecially complex
problemsrelatingtoequality,anissueofmajorconcerntotheNewLeftbutthoseproblemscannotberesolved
byinvokingnineteenthcenturycriticismsofcapitalism.37 Infailingtoassimilateintellectuallythenoveltyofthe
currentAmericantransition,theNewLefthasmadeitselfanessentiallynegativeandobsolescentforce.Indeed,
theNewLeft'scombinationofMarxistrhetoricandexaltationofpassionappearstohavebeendesignedtoshock
ratherthantochangesociety.Thishascreatedasituationdeploredbyevenradicalcriticsof thecontemporary
UnitedStates. Inaddition,theNewLeft'sexuberantrhetoric,coupledwiththeideologicalimmaturityofthe
youngmilitantsandthehistoricalanachronismofitsprophets,hasresultedinaprogrammaticpostureand
ideologicaldebatesthatoccasionallyvergeonthehilarious. Cumulatively,theNewLefthaslooselylinkedthe

*
TheassessmentoftheSDSbyDavidHilliard,chiefofstaffoftheBlackPantherparty,isrevealinginthisconnection:"Wedon'tseeSDS
asbeingsorevolutionary.WeseeSDSasjustbeinganotherpacificationfrontthat'sgivencreditbythefascistestablishmentinorderto
causedisfusion [sic]in hopesthatthiswouldweakenthesupportfortheBlackPantherparty....
"...we'llbeatthoselittlesissies,thoselittleschoolboys'assiftheydon'ttrytostraightenuptheirpolitics.Sowewanttomakethatknownto
SDSandthefirstmotherfuckerthatgetsoutoforderhadbetterstandinlineforsomekindofdisciplinaryactionsfromtheBlackPanther
party"(interviewin BerkeleyBarb,August4,1969,ascitedby Guardian,August16,1969).

TheintellectualrootsofbothMarcuseandChomskyaregroundedinnineteenthcenturyEuropeanradicaldogmatism(onChomskyand
communism,seetheparticularlyperceptivecommentsbySeymourMartinLipset,"TheLeft,theJewsandIsrael,"Encounter, December
1969,p.34).
Inthisregard,commentsbyWalterLaqueurareparticularlypertinenttoMarcuse'sponderousjustificationsforhispreferredbrandof
dictatorshipandtoChomsky'spoliticalbanalities:"TheAmericanyouthmovement,withitsimmenseidealisticpotential,hasgonebadly,
perhapsirrevocably,offtherails.Forthis,agreatresponsibilityfallsontheshouldersoftheguruswhohaveprovidedtheideological
justificationforthemovementinitspresentphasethoseintellectuals,theirownbrightdreamshavingfaded,whonowstraintorecapture
theirideologicalvirginity....ThedoctorsoftheAmericanyouthmovementareinfactpartofitsdisease.Theyhavehelpedtogeneratea
greatdealofpassion,butasidefromthemostbanalpopulismtheyhavefailedtoproduceasinglenewidea"("ReflectionsonYouthMove
ments," Commentary, June1969,p.40).
This"banalpopulism"isexpressedinthecaseofsomewriters(suchasA.Mendel,inhistrivial"RobotsandRebels,"TheNewRepublic,
January11,1969)byanintenselyManichaeanescapismandbyattempts(forexample,inthemoreintellectuallyseriouseffortbyTheodore
Roszak, TheMakingofaCounterCulture, NewYork,1969)tolegitimizetheantirationalpostureofsomeoftheyoungasanewand
enduringculture.Theprevailingpassionofthe"gurus"isrevealedbythesympatheticcommentsonRoszak'sbookbyphilosophyprofessor
RobertWolff.AfternotingthatRoszakarguesthat"modernindustrialsocietyingeneral,andAmericansocietyinparticular,isugly,
repressive,destructive,andsubversiveofmuchthatistrulyhuman,"Wolffgoesontosaythattheaboveproposition"...Itakeit,isnow
acknowledgedtobetruebyvirtuallyeverysensiblemanandwoman.AnyonewhostillimaginesthattheUnitedStatesisthelandof
opportunityandthebastionofdemocracyisacandidateeitherforamentalhospitalorforRichardNixon'sCabinet"(TheNewYorkTimes
BookReview,September
7, 1969,p.3).

The Guardian, forexample,condemnedtheSDSforits"intoxicationwithsectarianism,dogmatism,obscurerhetoricandempty

sloganeeringwhichtendstopermeatetheupperreachesofitsleadership.Suchpracticecanonlyfurtherisolatetheleadershipfroma
membershipwhichhasneverenjoyedaserious,nationaleducationalprogramdesignedtoeliminategapsinpoliticalconsciousnessthatexist
onthechapterlevel....Wequestiontendenciesleadingtotheapplicationbyroteofimportantandintricateconceptssuchasthedictatorship
oftheproletariatandvanguardparty,withoutregardforthepresentnatureofU.S.monopolycapitalismortoadjustmentswhichwouldhave
tobemadeintheseformulationstobeapplicabletotheworld'smostindustriallyadvancednation"(Guardian, July5,1969, p.12).

Forexample,attheSDSNationalConventionin1969thefollowingdialoguetookplace:"Thenextspeaker,ChakaWalls,ministerof
informationoftheIllinoisBlackPantherparty...thenbegantoexplaintheroleofwomenintherevolution.'Webelieveinthefreedomof
love,inpussypower,'hesaid.Ashockwavestunnedthearena,andPLrespondedwithchantsof'Fightmalechauvinism.''We'vegotsome
puritansinthecrowd,'respondedWalls.'SupermanwasapunkbecausehenevertriedtofuckLoisLane.'
"'Fightmalechauvinism,'PLWSAandmanyothersbegantochant.AngerwassointensethatWallssteppeddownandleftthepodium
toJewelCook,anotherPantherspokesman.Cook,notunderstandingwhatwaswrongwith'pussypower,' quicklymademattersworse....
Cooksaid:'He[Walls]wasonlytryingtosaythatyousistershaveastrategicpositionfortherevolution...prone'"(Guardian, June28,
1969).PLWSA:ProgressiveLaborWorkerStudentAlliance.
Similarly,theBerkeleyLiberationCommittee'srevolutionary program,designedtoseta"revolutionaryexamplethroughouttheworld,"
containedthefollowingthirteenpoints(OaklandTribune, June5,1969):
"1WewillmakeTelegraphAvenueandtheSouthCampusastrategicfreeterritoryforrevolution.
2Wewillcreateourrevolutionarycultureeverywhere.
3Wewillturntheschoolsintotraininggroundsforliberation.
4Wewilldestroytheuniversityunlessitservesthepeople.
5Wewillstruggleforthefullliberationofwomenasanecessarypartoftherevolutionaryprocess.
6Wewilltakecommunalresponsibilityforbasichumanneeds.

89
obsolescents,theabstainers,andtheexcludedofthetechnetronicage,butithasofferedlittle prospectofa
realisticresponsetothisage'sdilemmas.Itisthusmoreinterestingasasymptomofsocialchangethanforits
programmaticmessage.Itisanescapistphenomenonratherthanadeterminedrevolutionarymovementit
proclaimsitsdesireto changesocietybutbyandlargeoffersonlyarefugefromsociety.* Moreconcernedwith
selfgratificationthanwiththesocialconsequencesofitsacts,theNewLeftcanaffordtoengageinthewildest
verbalabuse,withoutanyregardforthefactthatitalienateseventhosewhoarepotentialsupporters.Itsconcern
istocreateasenseofpersonalinvolvementforitsadherentsandtoreleasetheirpassionsitprovidesa
psychologicalsafetyvalveforitsyouthfulmilitantsandasenseofvicariousfulfillmentforitsmorepassive,
affluent,and olderadmirers. DespiteitsincreasinglyMarxistLeninistrhetoric,theNewLeftismore
reminiscentofFourierincontent38 andofDadaisminstyleandquitesymptomaticallyso,sincebothFourier
andDadaism werethemselvesreactionstoanewage.

TheHistoricFunctionoftheMilitantLeft
Onbalance,themilitantNewLeftappearstobelargelyatransientphenomenon,asymptomofthe
tensionsinherentintheinteractionoftheseveralAmericascoexistingina timeofgeneralAmericantransition.
Inallprobability,thistransitionwillcontinuetosparkadditionalviolence,andthebroaderfrustrationsbesetting
someyoungpeoplemaypromptamoreprotractedalienationfromtheexistingsystem.Thedeclineinthe
attractivenessofbusinessorgovernmentcareersmaydenythesystemameasureofsocialtalent,butthis
alienationofsomemiddleclassyouth(especiallyfromthebetteruniversities),thesourcefromwhichAmerica's
eliteistraditionallydrawn,maywellactasasocialequalizerbyopeningupcareeropportunitiesforfirst
generation,postbluecollarurbanyouthwhohaveinrecentyearsgainedgreateraccesstoadvancededucation.
ThelongrunhistoricfunctionofthemilitantNewLeftdependslargelyonthecircumstancesinwhich
itwilleventuallyeitherfadeorbesuppressed.Thoughitselfideologicallybarrenandpoliticallyfutile,itmight
serveasanadditionalspurtosocialchange,acceleratingsomereforms.Ifitdoes,eventhoughtheNewLeft
itselfdisappears,itsfunctioninthethirdAmericanrevolutionwillhavebeenpositiveifnot,itwillhavebeena
catalystforamorereactionarysocialresponsetothenewdilemmas.
TheanarchisticelementintheNewLefthasoftenbeennoted.Lessattentionhasbeenpaidtoits
totalitarianpredisposition.YetbothelementsareinfluentialintheNewLeft'sbehaviorandmood.Despitethe
democraticrhetoricandproclaimedconcernwithequality,thedemandsoftheNewLeftintheperceptive
wordsofasympatheticobserverhavebeen"fundamentallyelitistandaristocratic,andshouldbefranklyfaced
assuch."39Itsmembership,intermsofbothsocialcompositionandpsychologicalmakeup,isremarkably
analogoustothatofEuropeangroupswhich,inresponsetooverwhelmingcomplexityandtimesofstress,
gravitatedtowardtotalitarianmovements.InEuropesuchgroupswererecruitedfromamongmarginalmembers
ofthemiddleclass,theunaffiliatedintellectuals,newandrecentlyuprootedproletarians,andsomeofthemore

7Wewillprotectandexpandourdrugculture.
8Wewillbreakthepowerofthelandlordsandprovidebeautifulhousingforeveryone.
9Wewilltaxthecorporations,nottheworkingpeople.
10Wewilldefendourselvesagainstlawandorder.
11WewillcreateasoulfulsocialisminBerkeley.
12Wewillcreateapeople'sgovernment.
13Wewillunitewithothermovementsthroughouttheworldtodestroythisracistcapitalistimperialistsystem."
*
KennethKeniston,thoughsuggestingthatyouthreallyisshapingthefuture,hascharacteristicallynotindicatedhowitisshapingit,and
thusappearstotaketheirrhetoricforreality.(Seehisarticle"YouhavetoGrowUpinScarsdale toKnowHowBadThingsBeallyAre,"The
NewYorkTimesMagazine, April27,1969.)ThesameislargelytrueofRoszak.
Keniston,moreover,seemstobeexcessivelyinfluencedbyprevailingmoods.Thusin1961hewrotethat"thedriftofAmericanyouth, I
haveargued,isawayfrompublicinvolvementsandsocialresponsibilitiesandtowardaworldofprivateandpersonalsatisfactions....They
willassureahighlystablepoliticalandsocialorder,forfewofthemwillbeenoughcommittedtopoliticstoconsiderrevolution,subversion,
orevenradicalchange..."("SocialChangeandYouthinAmerica,"in TheChallengeofYouth, EricH.Erikson,ed.,NewYork,1961,p.
215).

Forsomethesexualrevolutionalsobecameapartialsubstituteforpoliticalaction.Withpoliticalinstitutionstoodifficulttotackle,social
conventionsandtheuniversitiesbecameconvenienttargetsguaranteedtogainthedesiredmassmediacoverage.Asoneactressexplained
thepoliticalsignificanceofnudisminastatementto TheNewYorkTimes:
"Iconsidered(andstilldo)thenakedhumanbodytheheightofbeauty,innocenceandtruth.Iwishedtoopposemynakednesstotheintimate
realismofVietnam,initselfonlysymptomaticofthecorruptionsandhypocrisiesofourtime.ThenudebodyonstagewastheTruth
Vietnam,theLie.
"Vietnam,Chicago,andBerkeleymademerealizethatmybodycouldnotbemyown'property'anylonger,andthattrustandvulnerability
wereouronlysalvation.Iwishedtosaythat,inreachingthenaturalendoftheiremancipation,womenofmygenerationcannolonger
considerthemselvesas'property.'"
Aresponsebyablackactress,askedtocommentonthesamesubject,wasmuchmoretothepoint:
"Thispreoccupationwithnudityundertheguiseof'sexualliberation'isawhitehangup.Toomanywhite'artists'areconstantlymakinga
pretenseofcomingupwithnewforms,newideas,andexperiments.Thisisduetothefactthattheyarebankruptwhenitcomestothe
tormentingbusinessofartisticcreationoutofthehumanconditionasitis.Thistaskismuchmoredifficulttoconfront.
"Anyendeavorwhichemploystheblatantandaggressivedisplayofbodilynakednessintheglareofpublicvoyeurism,allunderthelabelof
artisticmerit,is notonestepabovethosegirliemagazinestoresandmoviehouseson42ndStreet.Itiswhatithasalwaysbeen,pornography
forthrillseekingconsumers.Fortheactor,thisisnothingshortofdebilitatingandexhaustingtohisartisticindividuality.
"Andasforliberation,sexualorotherwise,Iasablackpersonamconcernedwithbutonlyoneliberation,andthatisthetotalliberationofall
blackpeople.Thisisa realitywhichisquite naked" (SallyKirklandandJudyAnnElder,respectively,asquotedin TheNewYorkTimes,
June22,1969).

90
isolatedtradeunionists.40 InAmerica,giventhenewforcesshapingitssociety,membershavetoagreaterextent
beendrawnfromamongunaffiliatedintellectuals,studentswhoineffectformanew classandsome
membersofthemiddleclass,allofwhom,unliketheirEuropeancounterparts,arerespondinglesstoeconomic
andmoretopsychologicalanxieties.Theseelementsareunitedbytheirproclivityfortotalsolutionsandtheir
boredomorimpatiencewithincrementalchange.
ThestrongtotalitariantendenciesoftheNewLeftareevidentfrom itsconductandprescriptions.* Yetit
moreaccuratelywarrantstheterm"neototalitarian,"becauseithaslargelyfailedtoforgesufficientunityto
emergeasarelativelydisciplined,organizedtotalitarianmovement.Itstotalitarianmoodandaspirationshave
notyetbeenmatchedbytotalitarianorganization,eventhoughthebitterinternalfactionalconflictsandmutual
expulsionsarestronglyreminiscentofearlierdogmaticmovements.
Moreover,thesharpedgeoftheNewLeft'sintellectualandsometimesevenphysicalattackshas
beenaimedatthoseAmericaninstitutionswhosenormaloperationreliesmostonreasonandnonviolence.The
university,apeculiarlydefenselessandvulnerablesocialinstitutionandinAmericatheprincipalhavenfor
liberalthoughthasbeenaprimarytargetbecauseitoffersthegreatestchanceforsuccesswiththeleastamount
ofrisk.Moregenerally,leadingNewLeftspokesmenhavebeencontemptuousoffreespeech,democratic
procedures,andmajorityrule.Theyhaveleftlittleroomfordoubtastohowtheywouldhandletheircriticsifthe
NewLeftwereevertogainpower.
Thoughtheyseeminglyconflict, theanarchisticandthetotalitarianstrandsoftheNewLefthavebeen
mutuallyreinforcing.Theanarchisticcomponentisintunewiththeuncertaintiesconnectedwiththerapidand
bafflingpaceofchangethetotalitariancomponent,derivedfromtheManichaeansenseofabsoluteself
righteousness,providesasecurepointofdepartureforconfrontingthatchange.Itshouldberemembered,
moreover,thattotalitarianismrarelyproclaimsitselfinadvanceitemergesthroughpractice.SincetheFrench
Revolution,theoverallpoliticalstyleoftheWesternworldhascalledforrelianceonslogansexpressing
devotiontofreedomandequality.Evenfascismclaimedthatitsdisciplinemademenfree.Theradicallefthas
beenshrillinproclaimingitscommitmenttotruedemocracy,buttherealtestofdemocracyisnotultimategoals
buttheproceduresusedinattainingthem.
NewLeftmilitantshavethusthreatenedAmericanliberalisminamannerreminiscentoftheharmdone
todemocraticAmericanconservatismandliberalanticommunismbytheMcCarthyphenomenonofthe1950s.
TheNewLefthasjeopardizedAmericansocialprogressbyprovidingaconvenientrationalizationforthemore
conservativesocialattitudes.Beyondthis,ithasbroughttothesurfaceandintensifiedbutnotcausedthe
currentcrisisofAmericanliberalism.ThathasperhapsbeenthemostsignificantpoliticalresultoftheNew
Left'sneototalitarianreactiontothethirdAmericanrevolution.

3.TheCrisisofLiberalism
Toagreatextent,modernAmericanliberalismhasitselftoblameforitspresentcrisis.Longthealmost
exclusivephilosophyofindustrialAmerica, liberalismhasnotonlydominatedthepoliticaldiscourseofthe
countrybutlatelyhasbeenfirmlyensconcedintheseatofpower,fromwhichithasconfrontedtheentrenched
butlargelydefensivecongressionalruralconservativeforces.Sweptoutofofficein1932,theRepublicanParty
neededthirtysixyears,aworldwar,twoAsianwars,anddomesticracialsocialunrestinordertoregainthe
WhiteHouse.(Eisenhower'svictoryin1952wasapersonaltriumph,notapartyonehewouldalsohavewonas
aDemocraticcandidate.)YeteventhentheRepublicanPartydidsolessbyofferinganalternativepolitical
philosophy thanbycapitalizingonthedivisionswithinAmericanliberalismandonthenation'suneasinesswith
liberalprescriptionsandstyle.
Theprescriptionsandstylewereonceacreativeandhumaneresponsetothepressuresandiniquitiesof
industrialcapitalism.AboutthesedilemmasAmericanconservativeshadlittletosay,andAmerican
conservatism,preachingpuritanhomiliesandextollingthevirtuesoffreeenterprise,didnotsucceedinmakinga
fulladjustmenttotheindustrialageortothemassivesocialandpoliticalawakeningitprompted.Thisleftthe
fieldeithertodoctrinaireradicals,wholargelydrewonEuropeanexperience,ortoliberals,whosoughttoadapt
theidealismandtheoptimismoftheAmericantraditiontothenewindustrialage.Thesuccessoftheliberals
preservedAmerica'suniquenessandthishasbeentheircrowningachievement.Withouttheliberal,America
mightwellhaveeitherdecayedeconomicallyor,perhapsevenmorelikely,fallenvictimtoanantidemocratic

*
Bynomeansthemostglaringexampleofthelatteristheexplicitadvocacyofrepressionofviewsdivergentfromthoseapprovedbythe
NewLeft.SeeRobertWolff,BarringtonMoore,Jr.,HerbertMarcuse, ACritiqueofPureTolerance, Boston,1965,especiallypp.81110.

"Foralongwithitsagrarianismthenewnationwasimbuedwithliberalism,Whigtothebone.Neitherthronenoraltar,nor,aboveall,
reverenceforthepastexistedasbarrierstothenewlevelingforcesunleashedbyindustrialtechnology.
"ThepoliticalturningpointwasthedefeatoftheSouthintheCivilWar,whichendedforeveranypossibilityofanationbasedonagrarian
valuesand,indeed,destroyedforeverthepossibilityofaconservatismthatwasanythingotherthanintellectualpreciousnessorashieldfor
particularbusinessinterests.Bryan'sconstituentsinthecrucialejectionof1896weresmallfarmercapitalistswhowereresentfuloftheir
disadvantagedpositionwithinthesystemratherthanofindustrialprocessesassuch.Wheninthe1930'sagroupofsouthernwriters
respondedtotheAmericaneconomiccrisisandtheattendantculturalcrisisofindustrialcapitalismwiththeirmanifesto I'llTakeMyStand,
lookingtoagrarianismandrejectingbothsocialismandindustrialcapitalisminfavorofsmallproperty,theyfoundlittleresonance.
DixielandreactedtotheDepressionbystandinginthevanguardofthosesupportingthestatecapitalismoftheNewDeal"(VictorC.Ferkiss,
TechnologicalMan:TheMythandtheReality, NewYork,1969,pp.6566).

91
socialandpoliticalcrisis.ThegeniusoftheNewDealliberalsolutionwastofusetheindividualismintrinsicin
Americanhistoricalexperienceanindividualismthathasinherentlyreinforcedaconservativereluctance
towardcollectivesocialactionwithasenseofsocialresponsibilityasdefinedthroughthepoliticalprocess.In
sodoing,AmericanliberalsinitiallyavoidedthedogmaticrigiditiesofEuropeansocialists,thoughtheyhave
tendedtosharewiththemtheinclinationtorelyonthegovernmentastheprincipalinstrumentalityforsocial
reforms.Thisinclination,philosophicalpreferenceapart,wasinanycasedictatedbythesituationprevailingin
America:thenationalgovernmentwastheonlyinstrumentthatwasrelativelyresponsivetothedemocratic
process,thatcouldbeusedtoexpressandfulfillthewelfareneedsofthemasses,thatcouldbluntthesharpedge
ofeconomicandsocialinequality.

TheLiberalJanus
Intheprocess,however,theAmericanliberalbecameincreasinglyastatistestablishmentarian,
confidentofhisprescriptionsandconvincedthathehaddiscoveredthewaytomanagesocialchange.Indeed,the
AmericanliberalbecameaJanuslikecreature,graduallyacquiringtwofaces.Therelativelypragmaticliberal
whowasrootedintheAmericandemocratictraditionandwhosesocialvaluesprovidedthebroadframeworkfor
anondogmaticapproachtoproblemsolvingcametobematchedbyamoreideological,eventuallymore
dogmaticliberal,whowasincreasinglyinclinedtowardabstractsocialengineering,pronetodrawhisintellectual
inspirationfromEuropeanleftradicalism,ideologicallyhostiletothebusinesscommunity,andratherimpatient
withthenonideological"expedient"attitudeofthepragmaticliberalpowerpractitioner.Theemergenceofthe
secondliberalwascloselylinkedwiththegrowthinprestigeandinfluenceoftheAmericanintellectual
communityafterWorldWarII.Increasingly,itwasthismoredoctrinaireliberalwhosetthetoneandwho
dominatedAmericanliberalism,thoughhewasstillunableduringthe1960stogainfullcontrolofthe
DemocraticParty.
Theaccessionofthedoctrinaireliberaltoprominenceandpoliticalinfluence,ifnottopowera
developmentwhichcoincidedwiththeintensifyingstressesintheAmericansocietyhadmuchtodowitha
subtlebutimportantchangeoftoneintheliberaldiscourse.Boththeproceduralelementsrootedinliberal
democracy'sattachmenttolegalorderandthepatrioticprideinAmerica'sconstitutionalachievementstendedto
bedowngradedinfavorofgreateremphasisonrapidsocialchange,onrestructuringeconomicrelations,andon
amoregeneralandhighlycriticalreappraisaloftheAmericantradition.
Thedoctrinaireliberal,moreover,wasnotinnocentofthe sinofintellectualarrogance.41 Sinceneither
theconservativenorthecommunistwasabletomatchhissocialsuccess,hisselfconfidencegradually
developedintoarrogance,oftenexpressedbyanintoleranceofcriticsandaninclinationtolabelasreactionaries
allwhodeviatedfromtheliberalnormashehimselfdefinedit.Thisinclinationbecamemostmarkedinthe
academicworld,anenvironmentincreasinglydominatedbyliberalintellectuals,42 whoweremoreinclinedthan
theliberalpowerpractitionerstoconceptualizestatistliberalismandtoexcommunicatedeviants.Asaresult,a
humaneandcreativecreedgraduallyacquiredovertonesofdominantorthodoxy.
Thismadeitmoredifficulteithertoperceiveortorespondtonewandunusualcircumstances.The
AmericanliberalapproachedthedilemmasposedbythethirdAmericanrevolutionwithaNewDealstrategy
triedandtestedduringtherecentindustrialcapitalistcrisis.Therewaslittleinthedoctrinaireliberalanalysisof
theproblemsfacingtheUnitedStatesinthe1960sthatdepartedfromtheprinciplesandremediesdevelopedin
theprecedingdecadestherewaslittlerecognitionofthegrowingresponsivenesstosocialproblemsofsocietal
institutionsandorganizationsotherthanthefederalgovernment.
Moreover,thedoctrinaireliberalswerebyandlargelatein recognizingtheantidemocraticand
antiliberalcharacteroftheNewLeft.Variousfactorsplayedarolehere,nottheleastofwhichwasthatinthe
pastsomeofthemhadflirtedwithcommunism.ThoughStalinismhadeventuallydisenchantedmostofthem,
thefearofbeing"outflankedontheleft"remainedastrongreflex,whilethecruditiesofMcCarthyismhadmade
anrtanticommunismhighlyfashionable,sociallyacceptable,andpoliticallylessriskythanfellowtraveling.
Thusmanydoctrinaireliberals unliketheirpragmaticpoliticalcounterparts,whoweremoreintunewiththe
moodoftheelectoraterespondedtothefactthattheslogansvoicedbytheNewLeftsounded democratictheir
undemocraticprocedureswereexcusedasexamplesofyouthfulexuberanceandadmirableidealism.
Thedowngradingoforderlylegalprocedure,onthegroundthatithadbecomeabuttressof
conservativeinstitutions,contributeddirectlytothecrisisoflegitimacyoftheAmericansystem.Thiscrisisis
clearlylinkedwiththeunwillingnessofamajorsectorofthedominantliberalcommunitytoinsistonlegal
procedures.Theambivalenceofsomanyprominentliberals, andtheirinclinationtorationalizeabusesby
militantsreflectinginparttheirhighlypermissiveeducationalconceptsconveyedtheweakeningliberal
commitmenttowhathastraditionallybeenavitalingredientofdemocracy:respectformajorityruleas
expressedbyestablisheddemocraticprocedures.

ThePriceofVictoriousSkepticism
Thiscrisisofliberalvalues(andtheNewLeftquiteaccuratelydiagnoseditassuchandtherebygained
confidenceinitsattackonliberaldemocracy)isinturnrelatedtomorebasiccauses.Liberalismwasinitiallynot

92
onlyanexpressionofarelevant,modern,andhumaneresponsetotheconditionscreatedbyindustrialismbut
alsoanattackonthethenprevailingorthodoxies.Theseorthodoxies,rootedinthetraditionalsociety,werea
blendofreligiousviewsandconservative instinctsreinforcedby,andreinforcing,establishedchurchandrural
aristocraticinstitutions.
Theliberalattackonthesedeeplyingrainedorthodoxiesandbeliefswaspartoftheemergingmoodof
rationalismandskepticism.Thismoodwasremarkablywellsuitedtotheneedsofthenewindustrialage.
Liberalsreflectedthespiritofthetimesinattackinginstitutionalizedreligiontheywerefashionableintheiranti
Catholicismtheyweremodernandmodernizinginattackingtheruralaristocraticconceptsoflife.Theywere
alsoremarkablysuccessful,andbythemidtwentiethcenturytheUnitedStateshadbecomeanessentially
secularsociety,itsmassmediaanditseducationalsystemdominatedexceptforparochialschoolsbyan
essentiallyrationalistandskepticalphilosophy.
Liberalsuccessalsomarkedthebeginningoftheliberalcrisis.Withsuccesscameevidencethatthe
UnitedStateswasbecomingasocietywithoutanyintegratingvaluesorintegratingculturalinstitutions.The
massmediacouldnotreplacereligionasthesourceofintegration,sincetheirorientationwasitselfdevoidof
morefundamentalconcerns,andunalloyednationalismalonewasclearlyadangertoliberalvalues. Skepticism
wassimplynotenoughwhenitemergedasthetriumphantantithesisoftraditionalreligion.Thegravitationof
somedoctrinaireliberalstowardtheradicalleftwashencealsopartiallyaconsequenceofthensuccess.
Understandablyunabletoturntowardthevaluestheyhadalwayscombated,thesedoctrinaireliberalswere
attractedtothemoreintenselyheldbeliefsoftheradicalleft,sincesuchbeliefsweresimilarlyderivedfroma
rejectionoftheold.Formostliberals,however,theturnto theextremeleftwasnotanacceptablesolution,forit
involvedabetrayaloftheirtraditionaldemocraticideals.Butwhat,theywereforcedtoaskthemselves,wasto
bethesubstanceofavictoriousskepticism?
Beliefisanimportantsocialcement.Asocietythatdoesnotbelieveinanythingisasocietyinastateof
dissolution.Thesharingofcommonaspirationsandaunifyingfaithisessentialtocommunitylife.Thisisafact
thatthecontemporarydoctrinaireandskepticalliberalisbeginningtoconfront,especiallyasaconsequenceof
hisambivalenceindefendingproceduraldemocracy.
Indeed,thechiefbeneficiariesofthisliberalconfusionhavebeentheAmericanconservativeswho,
thoughlargelyunresponsivetothesocialdilemmasofcontemporaryAmerica,havereapedpoliticalrewardsby
advocatingnationalism,privateproperty,andconstitutionalorder.
Fromthestandpointoftheliberalwhoseeshimselfasaprogressiveforce,beliefisnecessarytothe
effectivesocialassimilationofchange.Thesocialcostsoftheabsenceofconvictionandtheparalyzingeffects
ofskepticismasarulingprinciplehavebeenmostgraphicallyshownbytheliberal'sambivalentresponsetothe
newblackchallenge.Theliberalwasintheforefrontofthestruggleforracialequalityaslongasitwasopposed
bytheconservativesoncetheconservativedamshadcrumbledandtheblackemergedwithdemandsthatwere
nolongerdefinedforhimbythewhiteliberal,theliberalbecamebaffled.ThiswasthecaseinNewYorkCity's
struggleovercommunitycontrolofschools,anditwasalsothecaseatCornellUniversity,wherearmedblack
studentspresentedtheirdemandsintheformofanultimatum.Asaconsequence,someliberalsappearedtoturn
conservative:theyrejectedblackdemandsforseparatesocialinstitutions.Othersturnedintoundifferentiated
capitulators:theygrantedallblackdemandsinanattempttoexpiatetheirguiltaswhitemen.*
Yetwhatsocietyneededmostinthistimeoftransitionwasexactlywhattheliberaluncertainof
himselfbecausehistraditionalenemywasprostratefoundmostdifficulttoprovide:adefinitionofhis
principles,anaffirmationofhisconvictions,andawillingnesstoactonhisdevotiontoliberaldemocracy.
Americanblacksalsoneededsucharesponsefromtheliberal,fortheassimilationofanyethnicorracialgroup
intosocietyrequiresstableinstitutionsanddefined,thoughnotdogmatic,values.Theintegrationofblacks,
difficultenoughundermostcircumstances,becomeshopelessifexistinginstitutionsandvaluesfailtoprovidea
frameworkresilientenoughtoabsorbthestrainsinherentintheunprecedentedentranceofalargeracialminority
intoequalsocietalparticipation.Theemergenceofradical,antidemocratic,andevenracistyoungblack
leadershipwasdoubtlessprimarilyduetothewhitecommunity'sslowresponsetoblackaspirationsitwasalso,
however,duetothegrowingcontemptbytheNewLeftandyoungerblackleadersfordemocraticprocedures
andtotheirrealizationthatsuchcontemptcouldbeexpressedwithimpunity,giventheliberal'sown
ambivalenceaboutthelegitimacyofdemocraticproceduresandthemeaningofdemocraticbelief.
Theramificationsofthissituationwereevenbroaderandpoliticallymorepainfultotheliberal:theyled
toincreasedrejectionofliberalvaluesbythelowermiddleclassbluecollarworkers,whobegantoviewthe
doctrinaireliberalastheirnaturalenemy.Toanindustrialworkerofthe1930sthesymboloftheclassenemy
wasarichcapitalistbankerorindustrialist.Evenaslateas1948HarryTrumanwasabletobringaboutan
electoralvictorybyappealingtothatsentiment.Bythelate1960sthatsymbolwasreplaced:theclassenemywas
theblack,backedbyadogmaticliberalintellectual,preferablyacollegeprofessor.

*
Itistrulyremarkablethatnoprominentliberaleducatorwaswillingtosaytohisblackstudents:"Iwillnotengageinreverse
discriminationbygrantingindiscriminatelyany demandsthatyouchoosetomakesimplybecauseyouareblack.IwilltreatyouasItreatall
mystudents.TheeraofdiscriminationisoverandIwillnotreturntoitunderanewguise.Icanunderstandthepsychologicalrootsofyour
demands,aswell assomeofyourfearsinhavingtocompetewithbetterpreparedwhites.Iwill,therefore,doeverythingIcantoremedythe
situation,evenatconsiderablecostandorganizationaleffort,butIwillnotgrantthosedemandswhichwillhavetheeffectofperpetuating
yourexclusionfromthissociety."

93
 TherehasbeenanundeniableelementofjusticeinthewhitebluecollarAmerican'sresentmentofthe
liberal'ssocialidealism.ThelongdelayedandimperativelyneededracialrevolutionwaslaunchedintheUnited
Statesbythecomfortablyestablisheduppermiddleclassatarelativelylowcosttothemselvesitwastheless
financiallysecureandlessraciallytolerantwhiteworkingclasswhoborethebruntofthechangeineducation,in
housing,andinsocialmores.Tomanyindustrialworkersitseemedthattherichwerenotsharingtheeconomic
costsoftherevolutioninhiringpracticesorinsocialprograms,andthatthemilitantliberalswereunwillingto
makethecompromisesnecessarytoobtainbroaderpopularacceptanceof painfulsocialreadjustments.* The
resentmentoftheNewLeftbymuchoftheAmericanpublicthustendedtobecoupledwithwhiteindustrial
labor'sfeelingofbetrayalbytheliberalforces,againtotheadvantageofthemoreconservativeelementsin
Americanpolitics.
Thissenseofdisaffectionwasintensifiedbythefrustrationsbredbythetendencytomultiply
governmentalagenciesinordertoobtainpositivesocialchanges. Herethepracticeofthepragmaticliberal
mergedwiththeideologicalpreferencesofhisdoctrinairecounterpart.Thecombinationofabstracttheorywitha
remote,vast,andcomplexinstrumentalityhadmuchtodowiththealienationandirritationfeltbywhitesectors
oftheAmericanpublic. Norwasitalwaysgoodremedialsocialpolicyfortheunderprivilegedgroupsconcerned.
Justasthecommunistshaderredinbelievingthatsocialunrest(revolution)wastheproductofeconomicill
being(exploitation),thedoctrinaireliberalerredinassumingthateconomicprogresswouldpromptsocialwell
being.Bothunderestimatedthepsychologicalandspiritualdimensions.Someliberalssensedthis,and
experimentsdesignedtocombinesocialinitiative,freeenterprise,andgovernmentalsupport(suchasRobert
Kennedy'sBedfordStuyvesanteffort)weremeanttoprovideanewdirection.Yet,thoughcommunityactionasa
broadgoalwasanobleidea,inpracticeittoobecameameansofplayingthegameaccordingtoestablished
politicalrules:organizingtogainpowerinordereithertoextractmorepublicfundsortocreateabaseformore
radicalpolitics.43
Inthemeantime,increasedgovernmentalinterventionanddeliberatesocialengineeringthelatter
derivedfrom"theories"ofsocialchange anddevelopmentcreatedablendofoperationalincompetence,
crosscuttinggroupconflicts,socialindifference,andpoliticalcomplexitythatmadeforbothabreakdownof
publicconsensusandthealienationoftheyoungergeneration.Havingfinallyobtainedauniqueopportunityto
domuchofwhathehadlongaspiredtodo,thepragmaticliberaldiscoveredthathisintellectualarsenal,derived
fromahighlysuccessfulresponsetothecrisisofanadvancedindustrialsociety,wasexhaustedthedoctrinaire
liberalconfidentthathehadtherightremediesandtheory,impatientwiththeseemingconservatismofthe
morepragmaticpowerpractitioner,andambivalenttowardtheanarchism andtotalitarianismoftheNewLeft
underminedtheliberal'sbaseofsupportbydestroyingpublicconfidenceintheliberal'scommitmenttoliberal
democracy.
Thecontemporaryliberalthusfacesthethreatofbeingdeprivedofhisgreatestassets:hisoptimism,his
faithinAmerica'sfuture,hisvision.Inresponsetothecrisisthathefeelsacutelyandhasinmanyrespects
anticipatedmorecorrectlythantheconservativetheliberal,especiallytheintellectualdoctrinarian,tendsmore
andmoretowithdrawintoanideologicalshell,savouring thepleasuresofindiscriminateattacksonthenatureof
Americansocietyandthoroughlyenjoyingapocalypticpredictionsoftheimminentdoomofthissociety.
AprogressivesocietyhasbeendefinedasonethatinvolvesaninterplayofUtopiangoalsandpractical
steps,44 butthedoctrinaireliberalseemedincreasinglytooffersocietyonlyacombinationofpedestrian
prescriptionsanddogmaticsolutions.Hisattitudetowardspaceexploration,whichlinkedtheexplosionof
knowledgewithdeeplyfelthumanaspirations, issymbolicallysuggestive.Thedoctrinarian'sresponsetothe
adventure,challenge,andsocialopportunityprovidedbythespaceagewasunimaginative,politicallyunwise,
andpsychologicallyanachronistic HiscallforconcentratingallattentiononAmerica'sunfinishedterrestrial

*
Itisstrikingthatitwasonlyinthewakeofthe1968presidentialelectionsthatorganizationssuchastheAmericansforDemocraticAction
begantostresstheneedtoremedytheliberal'sneglect,andeven abuse,oftheindustrialworkingclass.Ontheeveofthepresidential
elections,aseriesofnewspaperarticlesin TheNewYorkTimesexploredtheethnicandeconomicsourcesofnorthernurbansupportfor
Wallace,repeatedlypointingitsfingeratthe Slavicethnicminority.Subsequently,itturnedoutthatbothinthatelection(inwhich,according
totheNBCvotingprofile,Wallaceobtainednationally22percentoftheItalianethnicvote,17.8percentoftheSlavic,and13percentof
theJewish [Newsweek,November11,1968,pp.3536])andinthe1969metropolitanelectionstheconservativeswingwasamuchmore
generalizedcaseofurbandisaffectionwiththeliberalapproach.

"Wenowhavetentimesasmanygovernmentagenciesconcernedwithcityproblemsaswehadin1939.Wehaveincreasedbyafactorof
athousandorsothenumberofreportsandpapersthathavetobefilledoutbeforeanythingcanbedoneinthecity.SocialworkersinNew
YorkCityspendsome70or80percentoftheirtimefillingoutpapersforWashington,forthestategovernmentinAlbany,andforNew
YorkCity.Nomorethan20or30percentoftheirtime,thatis,almostanhourandahalfaday,isavailablefortheirclients,thepoor.As
JamesRestonreportedin The NewYorkTimes(November23,1966),therewerethen170differentfederalaidprogramsonthebooks,
financedbyover400separateappropriationsandadministeredby21federaldepartmentsandagenciesaidedby150Washingtonbureaus
andover400regionaloffices.OneCongressionalsessionalonepassed20healthprograms,17neweducationalprograms,15neweconomic
developmentprograms,12newprogramsforthecities,17newresourcesdevelopmentprograms,and4newmanpowertrainingprograms,
eachwith itsownadministrativemachinery"(PeterF.Drucker,"TheSicknessofGovernment,"ThePublicInterest,Winter1969,p.8).

PresidentKennedy'sgoalofreachingthemoonwastheobjectofparticularscorn.Forexample,LewisMumfordassertedthat"themoon
landingprogram...isasymbolicactofwar,andtheslogantheastronautswillcarry,proclaimingthatitisforthebenefitofmankind,ison
thesamelevelastheAirForce'smonstroushypocrisy'OurProfessionIsPeace.'...Itisnoaccidentthattheclimacticmoonlanding
coincideswithcutbacksineducation,thebankruptcyofhospitalservices,theclosingoflibrariesandmuseums,andthemountingdefilement
oftheurbanandnaturalenvironment,tosaynothingofmanyotherevidencesofgross socialfailureandhumandeterioration"(TheNewYork
Times, July21,1969).

94
businesssimplyignoredthepsychologicalfactthatanationbecomesmoreawareofitsshortcomingsasit
expandsratherthancontractsitsambitions.
ItwasthefrontiertraditionthatstirredtheAmericanimagination,createdasocietyofmovementand
growth,andgaveAmericaitsintegrativemyth.Scientificexploration,includingexplorationofspace,has
becomethefunctionalequivalentofAmerica'sfrontiertradition,andsuchendeavorisimmediatelyrelevantto
theeducationalandscientificattainmentsofthecountry.Thisisnottoargueagainstgreatersocialexpenditures.
Itis,however,toarguethatabroadlygaugedimprovementofAmericansocietywillbeadeliberatebyproduct
ofasocietythatthrustsforwardwithitsacquiredenergy,thatseeksaltogethernewobjectivesincludingthose
beyonditsimmediateconfinestherebyintheprocessachievinggreatersocialconsciousnessandsuccessfully
confrontingtheunresolvedproblemsofthepast.
Evenasidefromthe possibilitythatthetechnologicalimpactofthespaceprogrammayendupby
contributingmoretotheresolutionofcityghettoproblemsthanalltheprogrammaticandsociologicaldoctrines
currentlysofashionable,thereisalsoanimportantinternationalaspecttothespaceeffort:amajorworldpower
suchastheUnitedStateshastopioneerinthoseareasoflifewhicharehistoricallyrelevantandcrucial.Tothe
extentthatoursisascientificage,thefailureoftheUnitedStatestopushbeyondexistingfrontiersandspace
offersaverydramaticchallengewouldmeanthelossofamajorpsychologicalmotivationforinnovation.
Thoughitmaynotbepopulartosayso,thefactisthatacontinentalsocietyliketheUnitedStatescouldnotsur
vivebybecomingmerelyanotherSwedenitwouldnotsurviveinternationallyanditisnotevencertainthatit
wouldfindasatisfactorybalancebetweendomesticmaterialneedsandspiritualaspirations.Spaceexplorationis
morecompatiblewiththetraditionof apioneeringcountrywhosegreatnesshasbeenlinkedwithinnovationin
constitutionalarrangements,ineconomicdevelopment,incontinentalexploration,andinscientificinvestigation.
TomanyAmericans,contemporaryliberalismoffersneitherprinciple norprogress.Thecrisisof
Americanliberalismishencebothacrisisofconfidenceandofhistoricalrelevance.45 Itpresentsthebleak
prospectthat liberalism, historicallythemostvitalsourceofinnovationincontemporaryAmericandemocracy,
maybecomethecriticalexpressionofadoctrinarianminorityincreasinglyreactiveinspiteofitsrhetoricand
ahavenforphilosophicprotestagainstthedehumanizingeffectsofscience,whiletheactiveshapingofthe
futurepassesintothehandsofasociallysomewhatconservativebuttechnologicallyinnovativeelite.*

TheEndofLiberalDemocracy?
Atechnologicallyinnovativeandpoliticallyconservativephasethatwouldleadtosomeformoftechnological
managerialismisonlyonepossibility.Otheralternativescouldbemoreextreme.Americansocioeconomic
tensionscouldbeaggravatedbythelossofmomentumineconomicgrowthandthereforeinthepaceof
scientificresearchandtechnologicaldevelopmentanimportantsourceofnationalpride.Racialstrife,urban
guerrillaactivity,andalienationoftheyoung,inadditiontoaprofoundnationalsplitoverAmerica'sglobalrole,
couldresultinafurtherbreakdownofnationalconsensusandleadeithertheextremeleftortheextremerightto
capitalizeonAmerica'spoliticaldisintegrationbyattemptingtoseizepower.
Onbalance,thechancesforthesuccessofaseriousrevolutionaryattemptdonotappeartobevery
good.TobecomeaneffectiverevolutionaryinstrumentthepresentNewLeftwouldhave notonlytorelatemore
meaningfullytothenewissuesconfrontingourtimesbutalsotodevelopthetechniques,theskills,andthe
organizationalformsrequiredtoeffectarevolutionintheworld'smostmodern,technologicallyadvanced
society.Thiswouldrequirethetransformationofasomewhatpetulantmiddleclassyouthmovement,supported
fromasafedistancebysomesectorsofthemoreesotericurbanintellectualcommunity,intoanorganization
withasystematictheoryofactionthattakesintoaccountthespecificityofcontemporaryAmerica.SDSworship
ofCheGuevara,atragicruralrebel,anditsgrowingrelianceonturgidMarxistLeninistphraseologymaybea
compensationforitsinabilitytomakethatadaptation,butithardlyaugursitsemergenceasaneffective
revolutionaryforce.
Thereisasignificantdifferencebetweenrevolutionaryactivityandrevolutionarysuccess.
Revolutionaryactivitythroughterrorism,sabotage,selectiveassassinations,urbanguerrillastrifeispossible
andevenlikelyintheearly1970s.ItwillcomenotfromtheNewLeftbutfromitsemergingsuccessorthe
professionallyViolentLeftnotfromtheidealisticyoungpeoplewhoinfuseitwithzealandconfusionbutfrom
thoseamongthemwhohavebeenhardened,disillusioned,andembitteredbytheirexperiencesinprisonsand

Incontrast,MichaelHarringtonnotedthat"thereisacertainpuritanismontheLeftwheneverthequestionofspacecomesup.Itisthe
fashiontodenigratespendingmoneyonheavenwhentheearthisstillsoshoddy.Butthisviewignorestwoimportantpoints.First,ifpeace
weretobreakout,amassivecutbackinthebillionsfordefenseplusthenormalgrowthofafullemploymenteconomywouldprovide
sufficientfundsforrebuildingAmerica and goingtothestars.Second,spaceisnotemptyofsocial,scientific,andevenaesthetic
significance.Itcouldconceivablyprovideroomforhumanbeings,vastnewresourcesforthedevelopmentoftheworld,anditwillcertainly
incite adeeperknowledgeofbothmanandtheuniverse.Beyondthesepragmaticconsiderations,thereisamoralimperativewhichrequires
thathumanityliveuptothefullnessofitspowers,andmencanrightlyboastthattheyhavealwaysexperimentedandinnovated"(American
PowerintheTwentiethCentury, p.31).
*
Thoughpublicopinioncanshiftdramatically,itisworthnotingthatin1969pollsshowedthataconsistentmajorityofyoungerpeopleand
thosewithcollegeeducationwereinfavorofincreasedspaceexplorationthoseopposedweremostnumerousamongthemoreelderlyand
amongthosewithgradeschooleducation(cf.Galluppoll,ascitedby TheNewYorkTimes,August7,1969,andHarrispoll,TheWashington
Post,August25,1969).Atthesametime,collegegraduatestendedtofavormoreenergeticlawenforcement,includingmorewiretapping
(Galluppoll,ascitedby TheNewYorkTimes,August21,1969).

95
penitentiaries.Thesemenwillbepsychologicallypreparedforrealviolence,andtheywilldismissaschild'splay
thesitdownsandtheraidsondeans'offices.Americansocietywouldthenhavetoconfrontamajorinternal
threat.
Buteventhenthecollectiveweightofpoliticalandsocialinstitutions,aswellasthecoercivemightof
organizedauthority,wouldinallprobabilityprevail.AslongastheNewLeftremainslargelyineffective inits
sporadicrelianceonviolence,itwillbesparedshoulditbecometheViolentLeft,suppressionwouldbeits
almostcertainfate.Thefactisthatrevolutionsarehistoricalrarities,andinmoderntimestheirsuccesshas
generallyrequiredacombinationofinternalsocialdissolutionandexternalmilitarydefeat.Theorganizationof
powermustitselfbreakdown,theelitesmustbesplit,thesocioeconomicsystemmustmalfunction,an
alternativeleadershipmustcrystallize,andthemorecreativesocialforcesmustbe,atleastinsignificantpart,
convincedthatabetteralternativeisavailable.Shortoftheseconditions,relianceonrevolutionaryviolenceis
likelytobreedsuppression,andeveneffectivelybrutalsuppression.*
Thesuppressionof theViolentLeftwouldalmostcertainlypushthecountrytotheright.Organized
coercionwouldrequiretheintroductionofavarietyofcontrolsovertheindividual.Ifundertakensystematically
bythelegitimateinstitutions,theprocesswouldinallprobabilitystrengthentheconservativepoliticalforcesif
undertakenineffectively,itwouldprobablypromptrightwingvigilantism,basedonavarietyofparamilitary
formations.Buteventhenarightextremistcoupseemsmostunlikely.Suchacoupwouldrequirethe
developmentofadegreeoforganizationalcohesionandconceptualrelevancethatseemsbeyondthecapability
oftheextremerightistsmostofwhomhavebeenleftbehindbythepaceofAmericanchange.46
Themorelikelyprobability,then,is thatsporadiccivilstrifewouldleadtoapolarizationofpublic
opinion,withtheDemocraticPartygraduallybecomingidentifiedwithsomeofthelessextremeNewLeft
positionsand/orsplitting,andtheRepublicanPartystrivingtoexploitthissituationandtoconsolidateanational
conservativemajority.Thiscouldcomeaboutgraduallythemore adventuresomeaspectsoftheAmericandream
wouldbepreemptedbythemoreconservativeleaders(forexample,SpiroAgnew'scallforamissiontoMars),
whilelowermiddleclassAmerica'sdisillusionmentwithliberalism,resentmentoftheNewLeft,andfearofthe
blackswouldpromptsuchanextremeconcentrationonorderthatconcernwithprogressinracerelationswould
becomemerelywindowdressingandeventuallyfadefromthepublicagenda.Theemergenceofamore
reactionarypoliticalresponsewouldneitherbedramaticnorhavetheovertovertonesoffascism.
Thisprocesscouldbeacceleratedbythedoctrinaireliberals'determinationeithertoremoldthe
DemocraticPartyintheirownimageortocreatetheirownpoliticalparty.Theinsistenceonadoctrinaire
responsetocomplexityandtheimpatiencewithmoregeneralizedcompromisesarecharacteristicsocial
manifestationsintimesofhistoricaldiscontinuityashasbeenalreadynoted,theyareparticularlyrepresentative
oftheyoungandofmarginalmembersofsociety.Thepoliticalconsequencewouldbeanevengreatersqueeze
onthepragmatic,lessideologicalliberals,pressedfromone sidebythedoctrinariansadvocatinglargescale
socialengineeringandoptingoutofexternalchallengesandfromtheotherbytheconservativespreachingthe
meritsofsocialconsolidationandofnewscientificfrontiers.
Thelatentantiintellectualism ofagreatmanyAmericansintensifiedbycollegedisorders,aggravated
bytheambivalenceoftheintellectuals,andsharpenedbyclasshostilitytowardtherebelliousoffspringof
middleclassAmericacouldalsounderminepublicsupportforthecountry'seducationalinstitutions,thus
matchingtheperilouschallengefromtheleftwithanequallyperilouschallengefromtheright.TheAmerican
universitywouldbecomepoliticized:eitherconstantlyagitatedovernonacademicissues,withitsfacultiesand
studentspassingresolutionsonallsortsofextraneousmattersandincreasinglyinjectingpoliticalcriteriainto
theirintellectualpursuitsorsubjecttostricteroutsidecontrolbyconservativeassembliesandtrusteeswho
wouldimposetheirpolitical biasesontheinternalworkingsof academia. Theresultingdestructionoftheliberal
universitywoulditselfbeagravesymptomofthedecline ofAmericanliberaldemocracy.

*
OnthispointthereisagreementamongsuchdissimilarobserversastheNationalCommissionontheCausesandPreventionofViolence
andBarringtonMoore,aseverecriticofthepresentAmericansystem.Thecommissionconcludedthat"collectiveviolenceseldomsucceeds
asaninstrumentforaccomplishinggroupobjectives.Itcansucceedwhenonegroupsooverpowersitsopponentsthattheyhavenochoice
buttodieordesist.Butmoderngovernmentsaremuchmorelikelytosucceedinsuchconteststhantheiropponents.
"InthecontemporaryUnitedStates,attemptsatrevolutionfromtheleftarelikely toinvitemassiverepressionfromtheright.Theoccurrence
ofviolenceinthecontextofprotestactivitiesishighlylikelytoalienategroupsthatarenotfundamentallyinsympathywiththeprotesters.
"ThechroniclesofAmericanlaborconflictssuggest thatviolence,whenitoccurred,wasalmostalwaysineffectivefortheworkersinvolved.
Themoreviolenttheconflict,themoredisastroustheconsequencesfortheworkers"(conclusionsofareporttotheCommissiononViolence
inAmerica,TheNewYork Times, June6,1969).
Verymuchinthesamevein,MoorewarnedthattheprospectsforanurbanrevolutioninAmericaareverydimandthatsuccessfulradical
revolutionshavesofarfailedtoprovide"alastingcontributiontohumanfreedom"("Revolution inAmerica?" TheNewYorkReviewof
Books, January30,1969,p.10.SeealsothethoughtfulstudybyBruceSmith,"ThePoliticsofProtest:HowEffectiveIsViolence?"
ProceedingsoftheAcademyofPoliticalScience, July1968).

ExamplesofthisareprovidedbytheColumbiaUniversitySenate'sfirstmajoractin1969,whichwastoexpressitsjudgmentonthe
Vietnamwar,andbytheobjectionsofUCLA'strusteestoayoungblackphilosophyprofessorbecauseofherpoliticalassociations.

Thelongrange consequencesoftheattackontheuniversitiesappeartobeoflittleconcerntotheNewLeft.Forexample,thedemandfor
theseparationofdefenseresearchfromuniversitiescouldcreateaseparatecomplexofgovernmentoperatedmilitaryresearchinstitutes
whosesecrecywouldshieldtheiroperationsfromoutsideintellectualinfluence,asistrueintheSovietUnion.Thisispreciselywhathas
alreadyhappenedinthecaseofbacteriologicalwarfaredevices,whichweredevelopedinclosedgovernmental researchlaboratoriesfar
removedfromtheoverviewofthescientificcommunity.TheremovalofROTCcouldsimilarlyaccelerateratherthanslowdownthe

96
 Insuchacontext,thealreadystaggeringtaskofcreatinganequitablemultiracialsocietycouldbecome
hopeless.Presenttrendsauguraworseningcrisisunlessamajorsocialeffortatameliorationispromptly
undertaken.47 Assumingpublicindifferenceor,evenworse,publichostilitytowardsuchefforts,therearetwo
equallyhorrendousprospectsforwhiteblackrelationsinAmerica:suppressionoftheblacksand/ortheir
separation.Eitheronecouldbeundertakenonlyinthecontextofamorereactionarypoliticalatmosphereand
woulditselfgenerateoverwhelmingpressurestowardreaction.Suppression,includingeffortsatsomeformof
separateresettlement,wouldinvolvemajorstrife,fortheAmericanblackisnolongerpliantand,moreover,
manywhiteswouldflocktohisside.Thoughsuppressioncouldeffectivelybeundertakenespeciallyinthe
wakeofmassiveblackuprisingspromptedbydesperationattheabsenceofprogress thepricepaidwouldbea
tragicreversaloftheprocessbywhichthescopeofAmericandemocracyhasdeepenedandenlargedoverthe
courseofthecountry'shistory.
Anotherthreat,lessovertbutnolessbasic,confrontsliberaldemocracy.Moredirectlylinkedtothe
impactoftechnology,itinvolvesthegradualappearanceofamorecontrolledanddirectedsociety.Sucha
societywouldbedominatedbyanelitewhoseclaimtopoliticalpowerwouldrestonallegedlysuperiorscientific
knowhow.Unhinderedbytherestraintsoftraditionalliberalvalues,thiselitewouldnothesitatetoachieveits
politicalendsbyusingthelatestmoderntechniquesforinfluencingpublicbehaviorandkeepingsocietyunder
closesurveillanceandcontrol.Undersuchcircumstances,thescientificandtechnologicalmomentumofthe
countrywouldnotbereversedbutwouldactuallyfeedonthesituationitexploits.
Theemergenceofalargedominantparty,alongsidethemorenarrowlyfocusedandmoreintensely
doctrinairegroupingsontherightandtheleft,couldacceleratethetrendtowardsuchtechnological
managerialism.SuchalargedominantpartywouldcombineAmericansociety'squestforstabilitywithits
historicalaffinityforinnovation.Relyingonscientificgrowthtoproducethemeansfordealingwithsocialills,it
wouldtapthenation'sintellectualtalentforbroadtargetplanningandexploittheexistenceof doctrinairegroups
byusingthemassocialbarometersandassourcesofnovelideas.Persistingsocialcrisis,theemergenceofa
charismaticpersonality,andtheexploitationofmassmediatoobtainpublicconfidencewouldbethe
steppingstonesinthepiecemealtransformationoftheUnitedStatesintoahighlycontrolledsociety.* Indifferent
ways,boththedoctrinarianandtheconservativemightfindthetemptationsinherentinthenewtechniquesofso
cialcontroltoodifficulttoresist.Theinclinationofthedoctrinairelefttolegitimizemeansbyendscouldlead
themtojustifymoresocialcontrolonthegroundthatitservesprogress.Theconservatives,preoccupiedwith
publicorderandfascinatedbymoderngadgetry,wouldbetemptedtousethe newtechniquesasaresponseto
unrest,sincetheywouldfailtorecognizethatsocialcontrolisnottheonlywaytodealwithrapidsocialchange.
Suchanoutcomewereittocometopasswouldrepresentaprofoundlypessimisticanswertothe
questionwhetherAmericanliberaldemocracycanassimilateandgivephilosophicalmeaningtotherevolutionit
isundergoing.ThismatternotonlyhasrelevancefortheUnitedStatesithaslargerimplications:American
successorfailuremayprovideasignificantindicationwhetheramoderndemocracywithhighlyeducated
citizenscansuccessfullyundergoanextensivesocialchangewithoutlosingitsessentiallydemocraticcharacter.
Fortunately,theAmericantransitionalsocontainsthepotentialforanAmericanredemption.

emergenceofaseparatelargeprofessionalcareerofficercorps inotherwords,awarriorcaste.
*
Thiscouldalsoproduceahistoricalparadox.ThetraditionallydemocraticAmericansocietycould,becauseofitsfascinationwithtechnical
efficiency,becomeanextremelycontrolledsociety,anditshumaneandindividualisticqualitieswouldtherebybelost.(Suchasocietyisthe
subjectofKurtVonnegut'snovelPlayerPiano.)Ontheotherhand,thecommunistcountries,becauseoftheirorganizationalinefficiency
andthegraduallooseningofpoliticalcontrols,mightbecomemorepreoccupiedwithquestionsofhumanismtheirsocialistinefficiency,
combinedwiththesemorehumaneconcerns,couldeventuallyproduceamoreflexiblesocialorderinsomeofthem.
Itshould,however,benotedthatthisextremelyunlikelyprospectisapplicableonlytothemoreadvancedcommunistcountries.Theweight
ofthepoliticaltraditionandgreatpoweraspirationsoftheRussianformofcommunism,aswellastherelativesocioeconomic
backwardnessofmostcommuniststates,argueagainstit.Foracritiqueoftheconceptofconvergence,i.e.,theevolutionofacommunist
systemintoatraditionalliberaldemocracy,seetheconcludingchapterofthebookIwrotewithSamuelHuntington,PoliticalPower:
USA/USSR, NewYork,1964.

97
PARTV
AmericaandtheWorld
America'srelationshipwiththeworldmustreflectAmericandomesticvaluesandpreoccupations.A
profounddiscrepancybetweentheexternalconductofademocraticsocietyanditsinternalnormsisnolonger
possiblemasscommunicationsquicklyexposethegulfandundercutthesupportneededforitsforeignpolicy.
Justasanationpreoccupiedwiththecommunistthreatathomecanconductavigorouslyanticommunistpolicy
abroad,oranationfearfulofrevolutioncanbecomeintenselyinvolvedincounterrevolutionaryactivity,soa
nationconcernedwithsocialjusticeandtechnologicaladaptationcannothelpbutbecomesimilarlycommitted
onaninternationallevel.
Inhis SecondTreatiseonGovernment,JohnLockewrote,"...inthebeginning,alltheworldwas
America."TodayalltheworldisAmerica,inthesensethatAmericaisthefirsttoexperiencethesocial,
psychological,political,andideologicaldilemmasproducedbyman'ssuddenacquisitionofaltogether
unprecedentedpoweroverhisenvironmentandoverhimself.ThethirdAmericanrevolution,occurringinanera
ofvolatilebeliefsandofrapidlyspreadingtechnologicalchange,thusclearlydictatesAmerica'srole:thatofthe
socialinnovator,exploitingscienceintheserviceofmanbutwithoutdogmaticallyprescribingthedestinyof
man.ThesuccessofAmericainbuildingahealthydemocraticsocietywouldholdpromiseforaworldstill
dominatedbyideologicalandracialconflicts,byeconomicandsocialinjustice.America'sfailurenotonlywould
beasetbackfortrendsunderwaysincethegreatrevolutionsofthelateeighteenthcenturybutcouldsignifya
morefundamentalhumanfailure:man'sinabilitytoovercomehisbaserinstinctsandhiscapitulationbeforethe
complexityandpowerofscience.

1.TheAmericanFuture
IftheproblemsthatconfrontAmericawereneitherrecognizednoranticipated,theinherentdangers
wouldbeevengreater.Suchisnotthecase.ContemporaryAmericaisperhapsmorecandidlycriticalandmore
demandingofitselfthananyothersociety:nationalreportspinpointingthesociety'sfailures,devastating
critiquesofnationalshortcomings,elaborateeffortsatsocialstocktakingallreflectamoreintrospectiveand
deliberatelysobernationalmood.Studiesofthefuture,organizedonalargescale(bothbyspecialacademic
commissionsandbywellendowedprivateinstitutes),indicatemountingnationalrecognitionthatthefuturecan
andmust beplanned,thatunlessthereisamodicumofdeliberatechoice,changewillresultinchaos.* This does
notguaranteethatanationalresponsewillactuallybemounted,butitdoesindicateamorepervasiveawareness
amongleadingsectorsofsocietyoftheneedforadeliberateresponse.
ThehistoricalvitalityoftheUnitedStatessystemderivesfromthedeeplyrootedcommitmentofthe
Americanpeopletotheideaofdemocraticchange.TheAmericantraditionoffreedialogueandofhierarchically
unfetteredexpressionofdisagreement1 hasbeenanimportantfactorindevelopingthisresponsivenesstochange
ithasmadeitpossibletoexploitprotestmovements(andtherebyrenderthemhistoricallysuperfluous)by
adaptingandadoptingtheirprograms.ThisistodenyneithertheelementofviolenceinAmericanhistorynorthe
oftnotedconservatismoftheelectorate.Nevertheless,thefundamentalrealityofAmericanlifehasbeenthe
assimilationoftherapidchangeinducedbythefrontier,byimmigration,andbyindustrialgrowth.Adynamic
socioeconomicrealityhasblendedwithacertainpoliticalconservatismandcreatedapluralistsociopolitical
systemthathasinthepastprovenitselftoberemarkablyresilientinabsorbingextraordinarychangeitpossesses
astructuralqualitycapableofgeneratinganddecipheringwarningsignalsofmountingsocialstress.
Today'sAmericahassethigherstandardsforitselfthanhasanyothersociety:itaimsatcreatingracial
harmonyonthebasisofequality,atachievingsocialwelfarewhilepreservingpersonalliberty,ateliminating
povertywithoutshacklingindividualfreedom.TensionsintheUnitedStatesmightbelesswereittoseekless
butinitsambitiousgoalsAmericaretainsitsinnovativecharacter.
ThoughtheNewLeftandparticularlytheViolentLefthastemporarilyservedtofortifysocially
conservativeorevenreactionarytrends,theimpatienceoftheyoungismoreandmorelikelytopermeatethe
sociopoliticalsystem,especiallyastheybegintooccupymoreinfluentialpositionsandmakeitmoreresponsive
totheneedforchangeandreform.Moreover,theincreasinglyinternationalexperienceoftheAmerican
intellectualandbusinesselitehasalreadypromptedagreaterinclinationtoconsidercontemporaryproblems
withinalargerframework,therebydrawinglessonsfortheUnitedStatesfromboththepoliticalevolutionand

*
Theconcernisnotlimitedtointellectualsbutincludesbusinessmenaswell.Thus,inMarch1969Fortune unveiledaplantoremedythe
conditionof"asecondratenationwithacivilizationonlyhalfbuilt,"offeringaprogramforextensiverehabilitationofthenation.Itwould
requireamassivepublicandprivateeffort.
SeealsoamoreextensivestudybyLeonardA.Lecht,Goals,PrioritiesandDollars:TheNextDecade (NewYork,1966),whichoutlinesin
extraordinarydetailaplanforallocatingtheGNPforvarioustasksofnationalrenewal,withspecialconcentrationonthescientific
technologicalandecologicalstructureofsociety.

98
thesocialinnovationofotheradvancedcountries.* Asaresult,moreAmericansrecognizethatthetwobroad
areasofneededanditistobehopeddevelopingchangeinvolvetheinstitutionalandtheculturalaspectsof
Americansociety.Theformerlargely,thoughnotexclusively,pertainstothepoliticalsphere,thelattertothe
educationaldomain,particularlyasitconcernsthecontentandtheshapingofnationalvalues.Moredeliberate
changeinbothrealmswouldserveasacatalystforreforminotherareasofnationallife,providingboththe
frameworkandthemotivationfor thetimelyadoptionofneededremedies.

ParticipatoryPluralism
TheapproachingtwohundredthanniversaryoftheDeclarationofIndependencecouldjustifythecall
foranationalconstitutionalconventiontoreexaminethenation'sformalinstitutionalframework.Either1976or
1989thetwohundredthanniversaryoftheConstitutioncouldserveasasuitabletargetdateforculminatinga
nationaldialogueontherelevanceofexistingarrangements,theworkingsoftherepresentativeprocess,andthe
desirabilityofimitatingthevariousEuropeanregionalizationreformsandofstreamliningtheadministrative
structure.Moreimportantstill,eitherdatewouldprovideasuitableoccasionforredefiningthemeaningof
moderndemocracyataskadmittedlychallengingbutnotnecessarilymoresothanwhen itwasundertakenby
thefoundingfathersandforsettingambitiousandconcretesocialgoals.
Realism,however,forcesustorecognizethatthenecessarypoliticalinnovationwillnotcomefrom
directconstitutionalreform,desirableasthatwouldbe. Theneededchangeismorelikelytodevelop
incrementallyandlessovertly.Nonetheless,itseventualscopemaybefarreaching,especiallyasthepolitical
processgraduallyassimilatesscientifictechnologicalchange.Thus,inthepoliticalspheretheincreasedflowof
informationandthedevelopmentofmoreefficienttechniquesofcoordinationmaymakepossiblegreater
devolutionofauthorityandresponsibilitytothelowerlevelsofgovernmentandsociety.Inthepastthedivision
ofpowerhastraditionallycausedproblemsofinefficiency,poorcoordination,anddispersalofauthority,but
todaythenewcommunicationsandcomputationtechniquesmakepossiblebothincreasedauthorityatthelower
levelsandalmost instantnationalcoordination. Therapid transferralofinformation,combinedwithhighly
advancedanalyticalmethods,wouldalsomakepossiblebroadnationalplanninginthelooserFrenchsenseof
target definitionnotonlyconcentratingoneconomicgoalsbutmoreclearlydefiningecologicalandcultural
objectives.
Technologicaldevelopmentsmakeitcertainthatmodernsocietywillrequiremoreandmoreplanning.
DeliberatemanagementoftheAmericanfuturewillbecomewidespread,withtheplannereventuallydisplacing
thelawyerasthekey sociallegislatorandmanipulator.Thiswillputagreateremphasisondefininggoalsand,
bythesametoken,onamoreselfconsciouspreoccupationwithsocialends.Howtocombinesocialplanning
withpersonalfreedomisalreadyemergingasthekeydilemmaoftechnetronicAmerica,replacingtheindustrial
age'spreoccupationwithbalancingsocialneedsagainstrequirementsoffreeenterprise.
Thestrengtheningoflocal,especiallymetropolitan,governmentisalreadyrecognizedasanurgent
necessityforthedemocraticprocessintheUnitedStates.Thedevolutionoffinancialresponsibilitytolower
echelonsofthepoliticalsystemmayencourageboththeflowofbettertalentandgreaterlocalparticipationin
moreimportantlocaldecisionmaking.Nationalcoordinationandlocalparticipationcouldthusbeweddedby
newsystemsofcoordination.Thishasalreadybeentriedsuccessfullybysomelargebusinesses.
ThetrendtowardmorecoordinationbutlesscentralizationwouldbeinkeepingwiththeAmerican
traditionofblurringsharpdistinctionsbetweenpublicandprivateinstitutions.InstitutionssuchasTVAorthe
FordFoundationperformfunctionsdifficultformanyEuropeanstounderstand,sincetheyaremoreaccustomed
eithertodifferentiatesharplybetweenthepublicsphereandtheprivate(ashasbeentypicaloftheindustrialage
ortosubordinatetheprivatetothepublic(asisfavouredbythesocialistsandsomeliberals)ortoabsorbthe
privatebythepublic(ashasbeenthecaseincommuniststates).
Atonetimethequestionofownershipwasthedecisivesocialandpoliticalissueofasociety
undergoingmodernization.Theformsoflandownershipcustomaryinthefeudalagriculturalagewereextended
throughforceofhabitaswellashistoricalaccommodationintotheindustrialageowningafactorywasseenas
beinglargelythesameasowningapieceofland.Thiseventuallyledtoasevereconflictbetweenoldformsand

*
Forexample,itisnowmorecandidlyadmittedthatAmericahasmuchtolearnfromWesternEuropeinmetropolitanplanning,inlocal
urbanplanning,inregionalization,inthedevelopmentofnewtowns,andinsocialandlegalinnovation.

Forexample,1976couldprovideatargetdateforamassiveefforttoterminatepovertyascurrentlydefined,ortobringNegroeducationup
tothenationalaverage1989,forecologicaltargets.

Forexample,onesimplethoughadmittedlyunattainableconstitutionalreformwouldgoalongwaytowardmakingCongressmore
responsivetosocialevolution:thepassageofacongressionalequivalentoftheTwentysecondAmendmentlimitingthepresidentialtermof
office.

Thesetechniquescouldalsobeusedtoimproveelectoralproceduresandtoprovideforcloserconsultationbetweenthepublicandits
representatives.ExistingelectoralmachineryintheUnitedStatesinregardtobothregistrationandvotingprocedurehassimplynotkept
upwithinnovationinelectroniccommunicationsandcomputation.Reforms(suchaselectronichomevotingconsoles)tomakeitpossible
forrepresentativesofthepublictoconsulttheirconstituentsrapidly,andfortheseconstituentstoexpresstheirviewseasily,areboth
technicallypossibleandlikelytodevelopinviewofgrowingdissatisfactionwithpresentmachinery.Moreintenseconsultation,not
necessarilyonlyonthenationalleveloronlyinregardtopoliticalinstitutions,wouldfurtherenhancetheresponsivenessoftheAmerican
socialandpoliticalsystem.

99
modesofevaluatingindividualrightsandthenewrequirementsofindustrialorganization,ofcollective
employeerights,andofchangedsociopoliticalinstitutions.Socialismwasoneextremesolutioninthemore
advancedWestdepersonalizedcorporateownershipandthelimitedsharingofauthoritywithorganizedlabor
wasthegeneralpatternofaccommodation.Thequestionofownershipwasthusredefinedintooneofcontroland
regulation,whiletheissueofexploitationassociatedwithownershipwasreplacedbynewproblemsconcerning
theeconomicparticipationandpsychologicalwellbeingoftheemployed.
Intheprocess,eveninAmericathefederalgovernmentemergedasthekeyinstitutionforrestructuring
socialrelations,andthequestionoftheextentofthestate'sroleineconomicaffairsbecamecrucial.Unlikethe
agriculturalage,duringwhichfewstateinstitutionswereinvolvedinorganizingandassistingman'sdaily
existence,theindustrialageproducedbothgreateropportunitiesfornationaldirectionandagreatersocial
demandforgovernmentimposedsocialjustice.Morecentralizeddirectionbythestateseemedtheonly
alternativetochaosandtheonlyresponsetosocialinjustice.
Ouragehasbeenmovingtowardanewpattern,blurringdistinctionsbetweenpublicandprivatebodies
andencouragingmorecrossparticipationinbothbytheiremployeesandmembers.InEuropecodetermination
notonlyhasinvolvedprofitsharingbuthasincreasinglyledtoparticipationinpolicymakingpressuresinthe
samedirectionareclearlybuildingupintheUnitedStatesaswell.Atthesametime,thewideningsocial
perspectivesoftheAmericanbusinesscommunityarelikelytoincreasetheinvolvementofbusinessexecutives
insocialproblems,therebymergingprivateandpublicactivityonboththelocalandthenationallevels.This
mightinturnmakeformoreeffectivesocialapplicationofthenewmanagementtechniques,which,unlike
bureaucratizedgovernmentalprocedures,haveprovedbothefficientandresponsive toexternalstimuli.*
Suchparticipatorypluralismmayprovereasonablyeffectiveinsubordinatingscienceandtechnologytosocial
ends.Inthepastforsometheintroductionofthemachinewasthebeginningofutopiaforothersitmeantthe
unleashingofevil.Similarly,todaytechnologyisseenbysomemodernconservativesasthebeginningofa
happynewagebecauseitpromisestofreemanfrommanysocialproblems,whilefortheNewLefttechnetronics
isreplacingpropertyasthesymbolofsocialevil.2 Yetthecrucialissueremainstheendsto whichscienceand
technologyareapplied,andasocietyinwhicheffectivecoordinationiscombinedwithdecentralizationismore
likelytocrystallizethenecessarydiscussionandreflection.Scientificexpertisecanthenbemobilizedforsocial
endswithoutgrantingscientistsadominatingpoliticalrolebecauseoftheirscientificcredentials. Participatory
pluralismwill automaticallyensureneitherpoliticalwisdomnorsocialresponsibility,butitmightmakefora
societythatmorenearlyapproachesboth.
Anticipationofthesocialeffectsoftechnologicalinnovationoffersagoodexampleofthenecessary
formsofcrossinstitutionalcooperation.Oneofthenation'smosturgentneedsisthecreationofavarietyof
mechanismsthatlinknationalandlocalgovernments,academia,andthebusinesscommunity(theretheexample
ofNASAmaybeespeciallyrewarding)inthetaskofevaluatingnotonlytheoperationaleffectsofthenew
technologiesbuttheirculturalandpsychologicaleffects.Aseriesof nationalandlocalcouncilsnotrestricted
toscientistsbutmadeupofvarioussocialgroups,includingtheclergywouldbeinkeepingwithboththeneed
andtheemergingpatternofsocialresponsetochange Thetrendtowardtheprogressivebreakdownof sharp

*
Thisisespeciallyironicsincethegovernmenthassponsoredthetransferofmanytechnologicalinnovationsfromdefensetoprivate
industry(seeR.LesterandG.Howick,AssessingTechnologyTransfer, NASA,Washington,D.C.,1966,especiallypp.42,48,76,and79).
Atthesametime,the internal bureaucraticproceduresofmanygovernmentagencieslagintechnologicalinnovationascomparedwithmajor
banksorcorporations.Bureaucraticrigidityappearstobeafunctionofsizeandhierarchy.Astudybysixteenleadingresearchadministrators
reportedinthespringof1967thatsmall,independentcompanieshavebeenmuchmoreinnovativetechnologicallythanlargecompanies(see
PeterDrucker,TheAgeofDiscontinuity, NewYork,1969,p.62.)

Onthecomplexquestionoftheroleofscientistsinpolicymaking,commentsbyDonK.Pricein TheScientificEstate (Cambridge,Mass.,

1965)andbySanfordA.LakoffandJ.StefanDuprein ScienceandtheNation:PolicyandPolitics (EnglewoodCliffs,N.J.,1962)are
especiallypertinent.
Thereisnoreasontobelievethatscientificcompetenceissufficientforrelevantjudgmentsconcerningallareasofsocialexistenceorpublic
policy.Indeed,thoughsomewhatexaggerated,theobservationsofaFrenchsocialthinkeronthedangersofexcessivedeferencetothe
nonscientificopinionsofscientistshavesomemerit:
"Weareforcedtoconcludethatourscientistsareincapableofanybuttheemptiestplatitudeswhentheystrayfromtheirspecialties.Itmakes
onethinkbackonthecollectionofmediocritiesaccumulatedbyEinsteinwhenhespokeofGod,thestate,peace,andthemeaningof life.It
isclearthatEinstein,extraordinarymathematicalgeniusthathewas,wasnoPascalheknewnothingofpoliticalorhumanreality,or,infact,
anythingatalloutsidehismathematicalreach.ThebanalityofEinstein'sremarksinmattersoutsidehisspecialtyisasastonishingashis
geniuswithinit.Itseemsasthoughthespecializedapplicationofallone'sfacultiesinaparticularareainhibitstheconsiderationofthingsin
general.EvenJ.RobertOppenheimer,whoseemsreceptivetoageneralculture,isnotoutsidethisjudgment.Hispoliticalandsocial
declarations,forexample,scarcelygobeyondthelevelofthoseofthemaninthestreet.Andtheopinionsofthescientistsquotedby
L'Express arenotevenonthelevelofEinsteinor Oppenheimer.Theirpomposities,infact,donotrisetotheleveloftheaverage.Theyare
vaguegeneralitiesinheritedfromthenineteenthcentury,andthefactthattheyrepresentthefurthestlimitsofthoughtofourscientific
worthiesmustbesymptomaticofarresteddevelopmentorofamentalblock.Particularlydisquietingisthegapbetweentheenormouspower
theywieldandtheircriticalability,whichmustbeestimatedasnull"(Ellul,p.435).Forsomesuggestiveanalogies,seeR.Todd,"George
Wald:TheMan,theSpeech,"TheNewYorkTimesMagazine,August17,1967.

ThiswouldgobeyondthetasksettheNationalCommissiononTechnology,AutomationandEconomicProgress,authorizedbyCongress
in1964,andalsoaddressitselftotheissueswithwhich,forexample,theBritishSocietyforSocialResponsibilityinSciencehasbeen
grappling.
Aneditorialin Science (August1,1969)on"TheControlofTechnology"errsinimplyingthattheabovemattershouldberestrictedto
scientists.Socialscientists,theclergy,andhumanistsshouldalsobeinvolved,andtheSpecialCommissionontheSocialSciences,
establishedin1968bytheNationalScienceBoard,couldwellbedrawnin.

100
distinctionsbetweenthepoliticalandsocialspheres,betweenpublicand privateinstitutions,willnotlenditself
toeasyclassificationasliberal,conservative,orsocialistalltermsderivedfromadifferenthistoricalcontext
butitwillbe amajorsteptowardtheparticipatorydemocracyadvocatedbysomeoftheNewLeftinthelate
1960s.Ironically,thisparticipatorydemocracyislikelytoemergethroughaprogressivesymbiosisofthe
institutionsofsocietyandofgovernmentratherthan throughtheremediestheNewLefthadbeenadvocating:
economicexpropriationandpoliticalrevolution,bothdistinctlyanachronisticremediesoftheearlierindustrial
era.
Theevolutionaryemergenceofparticipatorypluralismmaynotseemasufficientresponsetothose
sectorsofAmericansocietythathavebecomeentirelyalienatedanditmayappearastoomuchchangetothose
whohaveavestedinterestinthe statusquo. ButforthatlargebodyofAmericanswhoaccepttheconceptof
gradualchangeandwhovalueproceduralorder,multiplepatternsofsocialinvolvementcouldprovidethe
desiredcreativeoutletforasocietythatisincreasinglybecomingmorecomplexandexpertoriented.Inthat
settingitisevenpossiblethatthepoliticalpartiesastraditionallyknowninAmericawillfurtherdeclinein
importanceintheirstead,organizedlocal,regional,urban,professional,andotherinterestswillprovidethe
focusforpoliticalaction,andshiftingnationalcoalitionswillformonanadhoc basisaroundspecificissuesof
nationalimport.*
Intheimmediatefuture,thepoliticsofstreetprotestarelikelytodominatethevisibledimensionsof
Americanpoliticallife.Lessvisibleindeed,sometimestotallyobscuredbytheprevailingrhetoricaboutthe
"repressivesociety"isthegradualprogresstowardanewdemocracyincreasinglybasedonparticipatory
pluralisminmanyareasoflife.AssumingthatshorttermcrisesdonotdeflecttheUnitedStatesfromredefining
the substanceofitsdemocratictradition,thelongrangeeffectofthepresenttransitionanditsturmoilswillbeto
deepenandwidenthescopeofthedemocraticprocessinAmerica.

ChangeinCulturalFormation
TheevolutionarydevelopmentofAmericandemocracywillhavetobematchedby changesinthe
processesofformingandshapingthecontentofitsnationalculture.Asinthecaseofpoliticalchange,cultural
reformismorelikelytocomeaboutthroughevolutioninpartdeliberatelyencouragedandinpartstimulated
byoverallsocialchangethanthroughprogrammaticengineering.Theelementofdeliberateandconscious
choicemaybeevenmoreimportantherethaninthetransformationofcomplexinstitutionalarrangements,
becauseinmodernsocietytheeducationalsystemandthemassmediahavebecometheprincipalsocialmeans
fordefiningthesubstanceofanationalculture.ThisisparticularlytrueinAmericansociety,whichhas
downgradedsuchalternativesourcesofcultureaschurchesandtraditionalcustoms.
TheeducationalsystemhasaspecialsocialresponsibilityinregardtoblackAmericans.Herethe
simultaneousneedsaretoenhancetheblackcitizen'sdignityandtoenlargehislongrangeopportunities.These
needshaveoccasionallyclashed,butperhapstheshorttermremedywillbetocombinetheblackAmerican's
questforhisseparateidentity(throughsuchinstitutionaldevicesasseparatecoursesandresidences)with
massiveandscientificallyorientedremedialtraining.Thechallengetodayandprobablyforseveraldecadesto
comeistohelptheblackAmericanskipthelateindustrialstageofAmerica'sdevelopment,andthiscannotbe
doneunlesssensitivitytohispsychologicalneedsismatchedbyarecognitionofthenecessityforadisciplined,
focusedintellectual effort.Thetwowillbehardtocombine,butitisinthisareathateventualprogressor
disasterinAmerica'sracerelationswillbeshaped.
Racialcalamitywillbeavoidedonlyifsocietyatlargedefinesmoreclearlythevaluesitseeks,is
willingto createaresponsiveframeworktopromotethem,andispreparedtoinsistonrespectfororderly
procedure.Nothingcouldbemoredestructivethanwideswingsfrompermissiveandguiltriddenacquiescence
toanydemandmadebyblackextremistssuchacquiescencemerelystimulatesanescalationofextremismto
insensitivepassivityoroppositiontoblackdemandsforafairshareofparticipationinAmericansociety.A
massiveeducationaleffortisthecrucialfactor,buttobesuccessfulitmustbegearedto thelongrangethrustof
Americansociety'sdevelopmentalneeds.
TheunprecedentedspreadofmasseducationinAmericaraisesthemoregeneralquestionwhether
mechanicallyextendingthedurationofeducationwillsufficetomeetboththepsychologicalandtechnicalneeds
oftheemergingsociety.Thesocialscopeanddurationofcurrentmasseducationdiffersfromtheearlyindustrial
emphasisonminimummassliteracyformales(andfromtheevenmoreelitistmedievalpatternofverylimited
learningforveryfew).Contemporaryprogramsaimattheeducationofahighproportionofbothsexesandcall
forperiodsofschoolinglastinganywherefromtentoalmosttwentyyears(inthecaseofmoreadvanced
degrees).InAmericahighereducationiscarriedonwithinarelativelyselfcontainedorganizationalandeven
socialframework,makingforaprotractedperiodofsemiisolationfromproblemsofsocialreality.Asaresult,
bothorganizationallyandintermsofcontent,adivorcebetweeneducationandsocialexistencehastendedto
develop,leadingtothealreadynotedemotionalandpsychicmanifestationsofstudentfrustrationand
immaturity.
*
ThesecoalitionsarelesslikelytoformalongthetraditionaldividinglineofRepublicansandDemocratsorasmorerecentlyof
conservativesandliberals,butrathertodivideaccordingtobasicphilosophicalattitudestowardtheproblemsofmodernlife.Ingreatly
simplifiedterms,thehumanistsandidealistsononesidemightbepittedagainstthepragmatistsandmodernizersontheother.

101
 Byextendingeducationonan intermittentbasisthroughoutthelifetimeofthecitizen,societywouldgo
alongway towardmeetingthisproblem.Thedurationoftheselfcontainedandrelativelyisolatedphaseof
initialeducationcouldthenbeshortened.Takingintoaccounttheearlierphysicalandsexualmaturationof
youngpeopletoday,itcouldbemoregenerallypursuedwithinaworkstudyframework,anditshouldbe
supplementedbyperiodicadditionaltrainingthroughoutmostofone'sactivelife.
Agoodcasecanbemadeforendinginitialeducation(moreofwhichcouldbeobtainedinthehome
throughelectronicdevices)somewherearoundtheageofeighteen.Thisformalinitialperiodcouldbefollowed
bytwoyearsofserviceinasociallydesirablecause* thenbydirectinvolvementinsomeprofessionalactivity
andbyadvanced,systematictrainingwithinthatarea andfinallybyregularperiodsofoneandeventuallyeven
twoyearsofbroadening,"integrative"studyatthebeginningofeverydecadeofone'slife,somewhereuptothe
ageofsixty. Forexample,medicalorlegaltrainingcouldbeginafteronlytwoyearsofcollege,thusboth
shorteningthetimeneededtocompletethetrainingandprobablyalsoincreasingthenumberattractedintothese
professions.Regularandformallyrequiredretrainingaswellasbroadeningcouldensueatregularintervals
throughoutmostofone'sprofessionalcareer.
Combininginitialspecializationwithasubsequentbroadeningofphilosophicalandscientifichorizons
wouldsomewhatcounteractthepresenttrend,whichmakesincreasedspecializationandrisingprofessional
standing gohandinhand.Thisencouragesanarrownessofgeneraloutlook.Thetrendcouldbegraduallyre
versedbyasituationinwhichspecializationattheageofgreatestabsorptivecapabilitywouldbefollowedby
moreintellectualintegrationatastageofincreasedpersonalmaturity.Suchanapproachwouldencouragethe
gradualemergenceofanintegrative,modernizingelitethatwouldshowgreaterconcernwithsociety's
underlyinghumanevaluesinanageinwhichintensivescientificspecializationisfraughtwithdangersof
intellectualfragmentation.
Theformaleducationalsystemhasbeenrelativelyslowinexploitingthenewopportunitiesfor
supplementaryhomebasededucationthroughtelevisionconsolesandotherelectronicdevices.Ithasalsobeen
suspiciousofthegrowinginclinationofnongovernmentalorganizationstodeveloptheirownlearningand
trainingprograms.Indifferentways,however,boththeblackcommunityandbusinessarebecomingmore
involvedineducation,forpsychologicalaswell asforprofessionalreasons. Greatermultiplicityineducational
trainingwillmakeforamorepluralisticnationalcommunity,andtheincreasinginvolvementofbusiness
companiesineducationmayleadtoamorerapidadaptationofthelatesttechniquesandscientificknowledge to
theeducationalprocess.Americanbusinessand,toalesserextent,thegovernmenthavealreadyundertaken
extensiveprogramsofmanagerial"retooling"andretraining,therebymovingtowardtheintermittenteducational
pattern.
Changeineducationalproceduresandphilosophyshouldalsobeaccompaniedbyparallelchangesin
thebroadernationalprocessesbywhichvaluesaregeneratedanddisseminated.GivenAmerica'sroleasaworld
disseminatorofnewvaluesandtechniques,thisisbothanationalandaglobalobligation.Yetnoothercountry
haspermitteditsmassculture,taste,dailyamusement,and,mostimportant,theindirecteducationofitschildren
tobealmostexclusivelythedomainofprivatebusinessandadvertising,orpermittedbothstandardsoftasteand
theintellectualcontentofculturetobedefinedlargelybyasmallgroupofentrepreneurslocatedinone
metropolitancenter.Americantelevision,inwhichaculturalmonopolyisexercisedbyarelativelysmallgroup,
reflectstheinsensitivityofthecommunicationsprocesstothetastesandphilosophicalvaluesofmuchof
America.**

*
Thiscausecouldbeeithernationalorinternational,publiclyorprivatelytackled.Itwouldbeinkeepingwiththehumanitarianidealismof
theyoungnottolimitsuchservicetonationalcauses.Onegoodwaytohandlethematterwouldbetomaintainalistofacceptable
humanitarianactivities,serviceonbehalfofwhichwouldbeanacceptableequivalentformilitaryduty.

ThiswouldgobeyondthetasksetfortheNationalCommissiononTechintegrativeneedsofthemodernage.Itwouldthuscombine
sciencewithphilosophybutnolongeractasanintellectualcafeteria,offeringstudiesrangingfromphysicaleducationthroughclassics,from
"soul"coursestothelatestspecializedsciences.Ineffect,therolesofthe"junior"collegeandoftheuniversitywouldbecomeseparatein
timeandplace,probablytotheadvantageofbothinstitutions.Thiswouldpermitconcentrationonthelargersocialquestionsandkeephigher
educationfrombeinganaristocraticprocessatthesametime,itwouldallaysomeofthedangersinherentintheillusionthataneducated
citizenryiscreatedbysimplyrunningalotofpeoplethroughtheeducationalmill.
Inaddition,thetraditionaltitlesoflearning,suchas"doctorofphilosophy,"implyaterminaleducationalprocessandreflectthesituationof
anearlierstageinsocialhistory.Sincelearningwillbecomeacontinuous,lifetimeprocessthatinvolvesalmosttheentirecommunity,
degreesbecomeasymbolicanachronismandshouldbedrasticallyreclassifiedtoindicatemoreaccuratelythevariousstagesofspecialized
andgeneralizedknowledge.

"Oneoftheparadoxesofthefutureisthatwhileanincreasingnumberofmanagerialdecisionswillbehandledbyautomaticdata
processing,buttressedbyclearandswiftcommunicationsnetworks,theintelligentdirectionandcoordinationoflargescalesystemswill
placeanevengreaterpremiumthanatpresentupon thewise,artful,andbroadlyexperiencedgeneralmanager inorganizations
characterizedbyoperationaldecentralization.Inshort,thepropositionthateffectivedecentralizationcanoccuronlywhereorganizational
centralizationhasbecomeefficientwillhavebecomeincreasingly recognized,notasaparadox,butasalogicalreality"(TheUnitedStates
andtheWorldinthe 1985 Era, p.44).

Forexample,OlinCorporation,notinginanadvertisementthat"thereisnogrowthpotentialinignorance,"hasinstitutedliteracyandhigh
schooltrainingprogramsinthreeofitsplants.Othermajorcorporationshavesimilartrainingprograms.
**
...broadcastinghasimposeduponAmericansocietywhatinthesupremecivicsensemaybeafatalcontradiction.Theextensionof
communicationshouldbeanextensionofdemocracy.Yetwhiletheparticipatorybaseofdemocracyhasbeenbroadening,theownershipand
controlofthemeansofcommunicationhavenarrowed.
"Itcouldbesaidindeedthatfarfrombeinganexpressionofmajoritydesire,asthenetworkssay,televisionprogramsaretheimpositionofa

102
Risingpublicdissatisfactionwiththisstateofaffairsindicatesthatperhapssomechangehastocomeinthisfield
aswell.Thegeographicaldecentralizationanddispersalofthetelevisionindustryintomorenumerousunits,the
separationofbroadcastingfromprogramproduction,andthefurtherextensionofeducationalprogrammingwill
probablybesharplyopposedbyexisting interestsifpastAmericanexperiencecanserveasarelevantguide,
changewillcomebyattritionandpiecemealreform, ratherthanbywholesalereadjustment.Here,again,
scientificandtechnologicaldevelopmentsmaybecomethehandmaidensofconstructivechangetheymaymake
possible(throughhomevideotapes,homeoperatedlenses,closedchannelprogramming)fargreaterdiversity
thanistodayavailable,aswellasmoreextensiveexploitationoftheaudiovisualmediabymoreinstitutionsand
organizations.Insteadoflimitingintellectualhorizons,televisioncouldbecomea
Culturalchangeinoursocietymayalsobespurredbythegrowingfemalerebellion,acceleratedby
educationandnewsexualmores.Themassiveentranceofwomenintotheprofessions,intoexecutivepositions,
andintopoliticsisprobablyonlyagenerationaway,andthereisalreadyabundantevidenceofmounting
restlessnessbecauseofcurrentinequalitiesofopportunity.Suchincreasedfeminineassertivenesscouldspill
overintoAmericansociety'sculturalfront,enhancingsomewhatthegeneralsocialinterestinculturalgrowth
andstandards.

RationalHumanism
ThetechnologicalthrustandtheeconomicwealthoftheUnitedStatesnowmakeitpossibletogivethe
conceptoflibertyandequalityabroadermeaning,goingbeyondtheproceduralandexternaltothepersonaland
innerspheresofman'ssocialexistence.Byfocusingmoredeliberatelyonthesequalitativeaspectsoflife,
Americamayavoidthedepersonalizingdangers inherentintheselfgeneratingbutphilosophicallymeaningless
mechanizationofenvironmentandbuildasocialframeworkforasynthesisofman'sexternalandinner
dimensions.
Suchasynthesismayeventuallyresultfromthecurrentintenseconflictbetweentheirrational
personalismofthe"humanists"andtheimpersonalrationalityofthe"modernizers."Theformergroup,sourceof
muchoftherhetoricoftheliterarycommunity,thestudentactivists,andthedoctrinaireliberals,partakesofthe
traditionofskepticismanddisbeliefthatplayedsuchavitalrole inoverthrowingthereligiousandphilosophical
holdofpreindustrialAmericaonthevaluesofindustrialAmericaitseekstofortifythistraditionbyanew
emphasisonemotionandfeeling.GivenitsDadaiststyleanditsLudditeinspiredhistoricalposture,itisunlikely
thatthiscampwilllongremainvital.ThepotentialtransformationoftheNewLeftintotheViolentLeftwill
certainlynotenhanceitsappealtotheAmericanpublic.Thelattergroup,moretypicalofthenewbusiness
executives,thegovernmentalcommercialestablishment,andthescientificorganizationmen,seekstocombine
selfinterestwithadetachedemphasisonrationalistinnovationsinceitfailstoprovideasatisfactoryemotional
orphilosophicalrationaleforeither,italienatesthe moreidealisticyoungpeople.*
TheclashbetweenthesetwoorientationsisdestructiveandthreateningtoAmericanliberaldemocracy.
Itfragmentstheremnantsoftheconsensusofthe industrialageandpolarizesarticulatepublicopinion.Yetit
alsoholdsthepromiseofanewperspectivethatisbettersuitedtotheneedsoftheemergingAmericansociety,
sinceitmovesbeyondtheincreasinglyirrelevantframeworkthatnowconfinesmodernman'soutlook.Thisnew
perspectiveinvolvesgrowingrecognitionthatman'spropensityforscientificinnovationcannotberestrained
thataslongasman'smindfunctions,scientificinnovationwillbeoneofitsexpressions.Butitalsoinvolvesa
heightenedawarenessthataslongasmanconceivesofhimselfasadistinctivebeing,idealismwillbethecentral
modeofexpressinghisspirit.Theimperativeneedforbothinnovationandidealismisthusstimulatinga
rationalisthumaneoutlookthatisgraduallysupplantingboththeliberalskepticismofsomehumanistsandthe
conservativesocialindifferenceofsomemodernizers.
Thisrationalhumanismisexpressedinseveralways:first,inanemerginginternationalconsciousness
thatmakessomanyAmericansandAmericaninstitutionsgobeyondpurelynationalisticconcernsandbecome
deeplyinvolvedinglobalproblemsofhumangrowthandnourishment,andispromptinginAmericanyouthsuch
aconstructivepreoccupationwithproblemsofecologysecond, inagrowingtendencyinspiteofastilldeeply
ingrainedanticommunismtoviewinternationalproblemsashumanissuesandnotaspoliticalconfrontations
betweengoodandevilthird,inastrongpublicidealismthatisfreeofaUtopian,impatient,and oftenintolerant
desiretoresolvealloutstandingdilemmasimmediately.Inaddition,itcanalsobeseeninthefactthat
Americans,insteadoftryingtofleetheproblemsofscience,areattemptingtobalancetheirfascinationwith
scienceandtheirrelianceonitasatoolfordealingwithhumanproblemsbyamoreintenseconcernwiththe
personalqualitiesoflifeandbyaquestformorephilosophicalandreligiouslyecumenicaldefinitionsofhuman

socialminorityonthemajority,theminorityconsistingofthefiftytopadvertisers,thethreenetworks,andadozenorsoadvertising
agencies"(AlexanderKendrick,PrimeTime:TheLife ofEdwardR.Murrow, Boston,1969,pp.1213).
*
Modernpsychologyincreasinglyrecognizesthat.thenonconcrete,moreabstractqualitiesoflife,suchasgoodness,aestheticbeauty,and
morality,arebecomingmoreandmoreimportantinsatisfyingindividualwantsinmodernsociety(see,forexample,AbrahamMaslow,
MotivationandPersonality, NewYork,1954,and TowardaPsychologyofBeing, Princeton,196a).However,thequestforthesemore
abstractandemotionalsatisfactionsoftentakesludicrousforms.ThelatesixtieshaveseeninAmericaaproliferationofvariousinstitutesand
seminarsinwhichbusinessmenandothersengageinspecial"sensitivity"seances,exposethemselvesto"brainwaveconditioning,"undertake
yogaexercisesandsustained"meditation,"andthelike.Thesefadsreflectthefracturingofthebroader,moreintegrativeframeworksof
belief,asnotedinourdiscussioninPartII.

103
nature.Thissuggeststhelikelihoodofarevivalofreligiosityofamorepersonal,noninstitutionalnature.Finally,
theemergingrationalhumanismishistoricallycontingentinthesensethatitdoesnotinvolveaswasthecase
withnineteenthcenturyideologyuniversallyprescriptiveconceptsofsocialorganizationbutstressescultural
andeconomicglobaldiversity.Insodoing,rationalhumanismislikelytobehistoricallymorerelevantthanwas
thecasewithearlierresponsestosocialdilemmas.Unliketheindustrialage,whencomplexityandhistorical
discontinuityinducedideologicalflightsofthemindintoatavismorfuturisticUtopias,inthetechnetronicage
thegreateravailabilityofmeanspermitsthedefinitionofmoreattainableends,thusmakingforalessdoctrinaire
andamoreeffectiverelationshipbetween"whatis"and"whatoughttobe."
Thegreatrevolutionsofthenineteenthandtwentiethcenturiessoughtbothlibertyandequality,but
evenintheabsenceofracialconflictitwasfoundthatthetwoweredifficulttocombineinanageinwhichthe
traditionalinstitutionsofareligious,aristocratic,andagriculturalerawereclashingwiththeeffectsofskeptical
rationalism,legalisticdemocracy,nascentsocialconsciousness,andtheneedsofadevelopingurbanindustrial
society.InAmericathelinkageoflibertyandequalitywasespeciallyhinderedbydeeplyembedded
fundamentalistreligiousvaluesthatwerereinforcedbytheeverwideninggapbetweentheprogressingwhite
communityandtheartificiallyarrestedblackcommunity.Inequalitybecameaselffulfillingprophecy,aswellas
aneconomicnecessitytotheindustriallydevelopingNorth.
ThepositivepotentialofthethirdAmericanrevolutionliesinitspromisetolinklibertywithequality.
Thislinkageisaprocess,andwillnotbeattainedallatonce.Indeed,duringthenextseveraldecadesreversals
andevenincreasedtensionsaretobeexpected.Nevertheless,thoughfrequentlyobscuredbypassionate
polemics,theemergingrationalhumanismispartofthe"culturalrevolution"thatAmericahasbeen
experiencing,aculturalrevolutionmoreenduringanddeeperthantheonethatinitiatedtheterm.Linkedto
politicalreform,thecurrentculturalrevolutioncouldgraduallyenlargethescopeofpersonalfreedomby
increasingthesenseofselffulfillmentofanunprecedentednumberofcitizensandgivegreatermeaningto
equalitybymakingknowledgethebasisforsocialandracialegalitarianism.Itcouldcreatethepreconditionsfor
asocially creativeandindividuallygratifyingsocietythatwouldinevitablyhaveaconstructiveworldroleto
play.

2.InternationalProspects
Tensionisunavoidableasmanstrivestoassimilatethenewintotheframeworkoftheold.Foratimethe
establishedframeworkresilientlyintegratesthenewbyadaptingitinamorefamiliarshape.Butatsomepoint
theoldframeworkbecomesoverloaded.Thenewinputcannolongerberedefinedintotraditionalforms,and
eventuallyitassertsitselfwithcompellingforce.Today,thoughtheoldframeworkofinternationalpolitics
withtheirspheresofinfluence,militaryalliancesbetweennationstates,thefictionofsovereignty,doctrinal
conflictsarisingfromnineteenthcenturycrisesisclearlynolongercompatible withreality.
Indeed,itisremarkablehowrapidlythedominantmoodshavechangedduringthelasttwodecades.
The1950sweretheeraofcertainty.ThetwosidesCommunistandWesternfacedeachotherinasettingthat
pittedconvictionagainstconviction.StalinistManichaeansconfrontedDulles'smissionaries.Thatmoodquickly
gavewaytoanother,withKhrushchevandKennedyservingastransitionstoaneraofconfusion.Dissensionin
thecommunistworldpromptedanideologicalcrisis,whiletheWestincreasinglybegantoquestionitsown
valuesandrighteousness.Communistcynicsconfrontedliberalskeptics.
Thereareindicationsthatthe1970swillbedominatedbygrowingawarenessthatthetimehascomefor
acommonefforttoshapeanewframeworkforinternationalpolitics,aframeworkthatcanserveasaneffective
channelforjointendeavors.Yetitmustberecognizedthattherewillbenorealglobalcooperationuntilthereis
fargreaterconsensusonitsprioritiesandpurposes:
Isittoenhance man'smaterialwellbeingandhisintellectualdevelopment?Iseconomicgrowththe
answer,orisamassiveinternationaleducationalefforttobethepointofdeparture?Shouldhealthhavepriority?
Howispersonalwellbeingrelatedtotheperhapslessimportantbutmoreeasilymeasuredgrossnational
product?Isthereanecessaryconnectionbetweenscientificadvanceandpersonalhappiness?
Thereisalreadywidespreadagreementaboutthedesirabilityofcuttingarmsbudgetsanddeveloping
international peacekeepingforces.Thereisalsoamoreselfconsciousawarenessofman'sinherent
aggressivenessandoftheneedtocontrolit.3 Totallydestructiveweaponsmaketheeffectsofconflict
incalculableandthusreducethelikelihoodofamajorwar.Here, again,anemergingglobalconsciousnessis
forcingtheabandonmentofpreoccupationswithnationalsupremacyandaccentuatingglobalinterdependence.In
theUnitedStatesthisgrowinginternationalawarenesshassometimestakentheformofgreatersensitivitytothe
influenceofthe"militaryindustrialcomplex,"4 andithaseffectivelyobstructedtheunlimiteddevelopmentof
biologicalchemicalweaponryanditsuseincombat.Ithasalsostimulatedpressuresforareexaminationof
defenserequirements,whileinotheradvancedcountries,particularlyinJapanandWesternEurope,ithas
promptedstrongpacifistmovements.
Nonetheless,arealisticassessmentcompelstheconclusionthattherewillbenoglobalsecurity
arrangementintheforeseeablefuture.Themostthatcanbeexpectedandeffectivelysoughtisawideningof
armscontroltreaties,someunilateralrestraintsondefensespending,andsomeexpansioninUNpeacekeeping
machinery.Theconflictsbetweennationsarestillveryrealreadingsof worldchangestilldiffersharply,and

104
nationalaspirationsremaindivergent.Moreover,unlikethesituationinJapan,WesternEurope,andtheUnited
States,neitherintheSovietUnionnorinChinaisthereanypublicdiscussionofweaponsdevelopmentand
defensespending.Secrecyandcensorshipimposerestraintsonviewsthatdivergefromtheofficialposition, and
thuslimittheinfluenceofagrowingglobalconsciousnessonpolicychoicesopentotheleadersofthesestates.
Thepictureissomewhatmoreambiguousinthefieldsofeconomicandeducationalscientific
development.Allmajorcountriesnowaccepttheprinciplethattheyoughttoaidthelessdevelopedcountries.
Thisisanewmoralposition,anditisanimportantcomponentofthenewglobalconsciousness.Thoughnations
stillasserttheirsovereigntyinfixingthescaleofaidextended(mostmakelessthanonepercentoftheirGNP
available),theyhaveineffectcreatedabindingprecedent:theextensionofaidhasbecomeanimperative.It
seemslikelythatintheyearstocome,despitepersistingconflictsamongstates,economicaidwillgrowinscale
andbeusedlessandlessasavehicleofpoliticalinfluence.Atthesametime,however,shortofaverymajor
crisis,itseemsunlikelythataidwillbeforthcominginamountssufficienttooffsetthethreateningprospects
discussedinPartI.
Insomerespectstechnologicalscientificdevelopmentsaugurmorepromisefortherapidglobalspread
ofeducationalprogramsandofnewtechniques.Televisionsatellitesarealreadymakingregionaleducational
programspossible(asinCentralAmerica),andtherehasbeenprogressinsettingupregionaltechnological
institutes(thismighteventuallyreducethebraindrain,whichiscausedinpart bythetemptationsinherentin
residentstudiesinthemoreadvancedcountries).TheDevelopmentAssistanceCommitteeofOECDoffersthe
potentialforasystematicapproachtomeetingtheeducationalneedsofthelessdevelopedcountries,andunlike
UNESCOitisnotsubjecttopoliticalpressuresfromthem.5 Suchanapproachwouldbeconsistentwiththe
emergenceofamorecooperativecommunityofthedevelopednations,oneabletoadoptacommon
developmentstrategy.ThespreadofEnglishasaglobalscientificlanguageisacceleratingtheformationofa
globalscientificfamily,increasinglymobileandinterchangeable.
Yetthisprogresscouldbevitiatedinmanycountriesbyasocialincapacitytodigestandabsorbthe
positivepotentialinherentineducationalandscientificgrowth.Theirinadequateeconomicresourcesonly
marginallyaugmentedbyreasonablyforeseeableforeignaidmayevencausesomepositivechangesto
backfire,promptingnotsocialadvancebutcostlyconflict,notpolicyinnovationbutpoliticalparalysis.Indeed,
ourstilllimitedknowledgeofthefactorsinducingsocialdevelopment,andoftheroleplayedinthat
developmentbyreligion,culture,andpsychology,hinderstheformulationofaneffectivestrategyforthe
disseminationoftechnicalknowhowandfortheapplicationofmaterialaid.*
Inthissetting,whichcombinesrudimentsoforderandelementsofchaos,twogeneralprospects,both
moreimmediatelyrelevanttoUnitedStatesforeignpolicy,seemprobable:first,theThirdWorld,thoughitwill
obviouslycontinuetoexperienceturbulentchanges,isnotverylikelytobesweptbyacommonrevolutionary
wavesecond,theSovietUnionwillintheforeseeablefutureremaintoostrongexternallynottobeaglobalrival
tothe UnitedStatesbuttooweakinternallytobeitsglobalpartner.

TheRevolutionaryProcess
Theconceptofaninternationalrevolutioninspiredbyacommonideologyhadsomemeaningwhenthe
industrialrevolutionseemedtoindicatethatcertainformsofsocialorganizationandofsocialcrisishadageneral
application.Thatviewcombinedauniversalintellectualperspectivewithageographicallyhistorical
parochialism.Itassumed,inpartbecauseinformationaboutworldprocesseswasrelativelylimited,thata
commonglobalframeworkcouldbepostulatedonthebasisofthehistoricalexperienceofafewWestern
countries.Itisnowincreasinglyevidentthatsocialconditions,aswellasthewayinwhichscienceand
technologyaresociallyapplied,varyenormously,andthatthisvarietyincludesverysubtlebutimportant
nuancesofcultural,religious,andhistorictradition,inadditionto economicandtechnicalfactors.
Moreover,inRussiaandinChinatherevolutionaryintelligentsiaofthelatenineteenthandearly
twentiethcenturieswasitselfintheforefrontoftheprocessofmodernization.Itrepresentedthemostadvanced
segmentsofsociety,andhenceapoliticalvictorybyitinherentlyinvolvedahistoricalstepforwardforthe
societyasawhole.Thisisnolongerthecase.Therevolutionaryintelligentsiainthelessdevelopedcountries,to
saynothingofitsvicariousmiddleclassintellectualequivalentsintheUnitedStates,oftenrepresentsasocial
anachronism.Asfarasthemodernizationprocessisconcerned,thisintelligentsiahasbeenleftbehindby
developmentsinscienceandtechnology,inwhichitislargely"illiterate."
Itispossible,therefore,thatinsomecountries,perhapseventhemoremodernones,theseanachronistic
intelligentsiasmayevensucceed,byclingingtoessentiallyaristocraticandantiindustrialvalues,ineffectively
blockingthemodernizationoftheirsocietiesbyinsistingthatitbepostponeduntilafteranideologicalrevolution
hastakenplace.Inthissense,thetechnetronicrevolutioncouldpartiallybecomeaselflimitingphenomenon:
disseminatedbymasscommunications,itcreatesitsownantithesisthroughtheimpactofmasscommunications

*
ThisiswhythereisspecialmeritintheNationalPlanningAssociation'sproposal(1969)thataTechnicalAssistanceand
DevelopmentResearchInstitutebeestablishedinWashingtontoprovidetechnicalassistancetounderdevelopednationsand
tomakeabroadgaugedstudyoftheproblemsconnectedwithdevelopment.

Forearlierdiscussionoftheprospectsofrevolutionarysuccess,seepp.48,119,188191,and248249.

105
onsomesectorsoftheintelligentsia.Insomeofthedevelopingcountriesthismighteventuallypitthetraditional
humanistlegalisttrainedintelligentsia,whoaremorereceptivetodoctrinalappeals,againsttheyounger,more
sociallyconcernedandinnovativeofficers,engineers,andstudents,whohavecombinedtoeffectamoderni
zationthatisindigenousandsociallyradical,thoughprogrammaticallyeclectic.
InLatinAmericathemoreextremereformsmaybemorereminiscentofPeronismandfascismthanof
communism.By1970thestudentpopulationwillbeapproximatelyonemillion,6 thuscreatinganambitiousand
politicallyvolatilebaseforreform.Inaddition,boththeoppositionofLatinAmericangovernmentstoUnited
Stateseconomicandpoliticalinfluence7 andtheirinclinationtoundertakeradicaldomesticreformsmaybe
expectedtoincrease,buttodosowithinaframeworkthatcombinesamoresociallyresponsibleCatholicism
withnationalism,inasettingofconsiderablenationaldiversity.Thiswillproduceahighlydifferentiatedpattern
ofchange,butevenitsradicalmanifestationsarenotlikelytobemodeledoncommunistcountries,especially
sincetherelativeculturalsophisticationoftheLatinAmericanelitesreducestheappealofthestodgyEastern
EuropeanorSovietmodels.Theofficercorps,composedofsociallyradicalandtechnologicallyinnovative
youngerofficers,ismorelikelytobethesourceofrevolutionarychangethanthelocalcommunistparties,and
LatinAmericandiscontentwillbegalvanizednotbyideologybutbycontinuingantiYankeeismpureand
simple.
Inotherpartsoftheglobesimilarsocialcombinationsprobablywillresultinregimesthatwill
compensatefortheweaknessofindigenousreligiousandintellectualtraditionsbybeingdoctrinallyoriented.
IraqiandSudanesecoupsofthelate1960s,carriedoutbyalliancesofofficersandintellectuals,willprobablybe
repeatedelsewhereinAfricaandtheMiddleEast.Thereis,however,somereasonforskepticismconcerningthe
genuinenessanddepthoftheideologicalcommitmentofthesenewregimes.Someoftheirideologyisshapedby
extraneousfactors(thequestionofIsraelandoftheSovietattitude)someismerelycurrentlyfashionable
rhetoricmuchofitishighlyvolatileandsubjecttodrasticchanges.* Doubtless,theseregimeswillbeassisted
andexploitedbytheSovietsandtheChinese.(Thelatter,forexample,havealreadymadepoliticalinroadsinto
EastAfrica.)Evenso,itwillstillbemoreamatteroftacticalcooperationthanofactualcontrolanda common
strategicpolicy.
Similarly,inSouthandSoutheastAsiarevolutionarypatternsarelikelytohaveanessentially
indigenousanddifferentiatedcharacter.Itisquitepossiblethatthetwolargepoliticalunits Indiaand
Pakistanwhichcombineavarietyofdisparateeconomicandethnicentities,maysplitup.Thiswillbe
especiallylikelyasthepresentelites,whoseinternalunitywasforgedbythestruggleagainsttheBritish,fade
fromthescene.ThewaningoftheCongressPartyinIndiahasbeenaccompaniedbyintensifyingethnicstresses
andbythepolarizationofpoliticalopinions.ShouldtheIndianUnionbreakdown,southernTamilseparatism,
probablyleftwingradicalinorientation,wouldbecontestedbynorthernHindurightradicalism, perhapsmore
religiouslyorientedeachwouldtendtointensifythedoctrinalandindigenousdistinctivenessoftheother.As
happenedearlierinChina,anytendencytowardcommunismthatmightresultfromsuchaconfrontationwould
soonbeculturallyabsorbedandperhapsoverwhelmedbytheweightofeconomicbackwardness.
InChinatheSinoSovietconflicthasalreadyacceleratedtheinescapableSinificationofChinese
communism.Thatconflictshatteredtherevolution'suniversalperspectiveandperhapsevenmoreimportant
detachedChinesemodernizationfromitscommitmenttotheSovietmodel.Hence,whateverhappensintheshort
run,inyearstocomeChinesedevelopmentwillprobablyincreasinglysharetheexperienceofothernationsin
theprocessofmodernization.Thismaybothdilutetheregime'sideologicaltenacityandleadtomoreeclectic
experimentationinshapingtheChineseroadtomodernity. ManyoftheupheavalsintheThirdWorldwill
unavoidablyhaveastrongantiAmericanbias.ThisislikelytobeparticularlytruewhereAmericanpresenceand
powerhastraditionallybeenmostvisible.InareasneartheSovietUnionandChina,however,antiSovietand
antiChineseattitudesarelikelytopredominateinthelongrun,irrespectiveofthecharacteroftheinternalre
formsandoftheexternalcomplexionoftherulingregimes.Thisagainhighlightsthepointthattherevolutionary
processassuchwillnotnecessarilydeterminetheforeignpolicystanceofthenewelites,whichismorelikelyto
beshapedbyacombinationoftraditionalantipathies,currentfears,anddomesticpoliticalneeds.
Moreover,thebasicorientationoftheneweliteswillmoreandmorerespondtotheintellectualimpact
ofdomesticchangesinthemoreadvancedworld,changesdirectlyandpersonallyvisibletotheseelitesthrough
travel,study,andglobalmassmedia.Thisintimacywithlifeabroadwillfurtherreducetheimportanceof
integrativeideologies,whichhadpreviouslyprovidedasubstituteforaclearvisionof thefutureandtheoutside
world.Ideologicaluniformitywastheprescriptionforremakingaworldthatwasbothdistantandlargely
unknown,butproximityandglobalcongestionnowdictaterevolutionarydiversity.
Accordingly,therealvaluesasdistinguishedfromtherhetoric oftheaspiringelitesofthe
developingnationswillbeshapedbytangibledevelopmentsratherthanbyabstractgeneralizations.Thesuccess
oftheUnitedStatesinshapingaworkable,multiracialdemocracywhilepioneeringinscienceandtechnology,
theabilityofEuropeandJapantoovercomethepsychologicalandsocialstressesofmaturemodernity,and

*
Moreover,theseregimeshavedifficultyinmovingintowhatHuntingtonhascalledthesecondphaseofarevolution:"Acomplete
revolution,however,alsoinvolvesasecondphase:thecreationandinstitutionalizationofanewpoliticalorder.Thesuccessfulrevolution
combinesrapidpoliticalmobilizationandrapidpoliticalinstitutionalization.Notallrevolutionsproduceanewpoliticalorder.Themeasure
ofhowrevolutionaryarevolutionisistherapidityandthescopeoftheexpansionofpoliticalparticipation.Themeasureofhowsuccessfula
revolutionisistheauthorityandstabilityoftheinstitutionstowhichitgivesbirth"(Huntington,p.266).

106
last,butnotleastthedegreetowhichtheSovietUnionbreaksawayfromthedoctrinalorthodoxythatinhibits
itssocialdevelopmentwillbecriticallyimportantinshapingtheoutlookofThirdWorldleaders.

USA/USSR:LessIntensive,MoreExtensiveRivalry
TheextenttowhichAmericansviewrevolutionarychangesabroadasautomaticallyinimicaltotheirinterests
reinforcesthe extenttowhichtheseseembeneficialtotheSovietsandcanbefittedintoaglobalcommunist
frameworkconversely,theextenttowhichAmericaviewsthesechangesinaneutrallightdiminishesthe
intrinsicattractionoftheSovietmodelforThirdWorldrevolutionariesandencouragesindigenousfactorsto
surfacemorerapidly.TheSovietattractionhasalreadybeenweakenedbytheappearanceofstatesmoremilitant
thantheSovietUnionandofgroupsmoreactivistthantheproSovietcommunistparties. TheSovietappealhas
alsodeclinedbecauseinternalSovietbureaucratizationanddogmaticrestraintsonintellectualcreativityand
socialinnovationhavemadetheSovietUnionthemostconservativepoliticalandsocialorderofthemore
advancedworld.*
AmericanSovietrivalryishencelikelytobecomelessideologicalincharacter,thoughitmaybecome
moreextensivegeographicallyandmoredangerousintermsofthepowerinvolved.Increaseddirectcontacts
betweenthetwonations,restraintsimposedbymutualrecognitionofthedestructivenessofpresentweapons
systems,andlessenedideologicalexpectationsfortheThirdWorldcouldmakeAmericanSovietrelationsmore
stable.Nevertheless,moreandmoreareasontheglobecouldbecometheobjectsofmovesandcountermovesif
thegrowthinlongrangeSovietmilitaryforces,particularlyconventionalair andsealiftcapabilities,extends
AmericanSovietrivalrytoareaspreviouslyconsideredbeyondtheSovietreach.InstabilityintheThirdWorld
couldtempteitherstatetoemployitspowertooffsetorpreempttheother,therebycreatingsituationsanalogous
totheFashoda incident,whichattheendofthenineteenthcenturyalmostcausedawarbetweenFranceand
Britainatatimewhenthesepowersweremoving(andcontinuedtomove)towardaEuropeanaccommodation.8
Onthewhole,closecooperationbetweentheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnionseemsaveryunlikely
prospectinthecomingdecade.Thisisonlypartiallyduetothedifferentideologicalandpoliticalcharacterofthe
twocountries.AcommunistAmericawouldinallprobabilityremainarivaloftheSovietUnion,justas
CommunistChinasoonbecameone.Givenitssizeandpower,ademocraticandcreative.SovietUnionmightbe
anevenmorepowerfulcompetitorfortheUnitedStatesthanisthepresentbureaucraticallystagnantand
doctrinallyorthodoxSovietsystem.Moreover,democraticnationsarenotnecessarilypacifistnations,as
Americanhistoryamplydemonstrates.Rivalrybetweennationsisinherentinaninternationalsystemthat
functionswithoutglobalconsensustheresultofcenturiesoftheconditioningofman'soutlookbycompetitive
nationsthatinsistedontheirindividualsuperiority,andparticularvalues.Suchrivalry isnotlikelytobe
terminatedbyanythingshortofafundamentalreconstructioninthenatureofrelationsbetweennationsand
henceinthecharacterofnationalsovereigntyitself.
Atpresent,theformationofanewcooperativeinternationalpatternis gettinglittlehelpfromtheSoviet
Union,inspiteofthefactthatitconsidersitselfintheforefrontofhistoricalprogressandwasuntilrecentlythe
standardbearerofanideologythathadcutacrosstraditionalnationallines.Theironyofhistory issuchthat
todaytheSovietUnionhasaforeignpolicythatisintenselynationalisticandadomesticpolicythatcallsforthe
dominationofnonRussianminoritiesitactivelycampaignsagainstregionalpatternsofinternational
cooperation,grantsadisproportionatelysmallamountofhelptothelessdevelopednations(roughlytenpercent
ofUnitedStatesforeignaid),andrejectsajointexplorationofspace(cloakingitsowneffortsinutmostsecrecy).
Indeed,oneoftheunanticipatedeffectsoftheSinoSovietdisputemaybeahardeningoftheSoviet
outlookandamoreparanoidviewoftheworld.ThoughSovietleaderswanttoavoidatwofrontconfrontation
andarehencepushedtowardaccommodationwitheithertheWestortheEast,theveryscale oftheChinese
challengeintensifiestheirfears,putsapremiumonmilitarypreparedness,andstimulatesanintense
preoccupationwiththesacrednessoffrontiers.
EquallyimportantbutlessgenerallyrecognizedasafactorininhibitingtheSovietUnionfromseeking
morebindingformsofinternationalcooperationisthedomesticweaknessandinsecurityofSovietleaders.Even
fiftyyearsafteritsinception,thepoliticalsystemtheyheadstilllackselementarylegitimacy:itsrulingelite
reliesheavilyoncoercionandcensorshiptoretainitspower,whichisacquirednotbyregular,constitutional
proceduresbutthroughprotracted,bureaucraticinfighting.(Thestrugglesforsuccessionareacaseinpoint.)
BecauseofthedoctrinalincapacityoftheSovietpoliticalsystemtorespondtotheinternalneedsofsocial
innovation,broadaccommodationwiththeWest,carryingwithittheacknowledgmentthattheLeninist
dichotomicvisionoftheworldwhichinturnjustifiestheLeninistconceptoftherulingpartyisnolonger

*
SomeSovietscientists(particularlyKapitsaandSakharov)havealreadywarnedoftheresultinglongruncosttoSovietscientificand
intellectualgrowth.

ToappreciateSovietfears,onewouldhavetoimagineasituationinwhichtheUnitedStateswasconfrontedbyeighthundred million
MexicanswhohadnucleararmsandrocketsandwhowereloudlyinsistingthattheUnitedStateshadseizedvastexpansesofMexican
territory,thattheAmericansystemwasinherentlyevil,andthattheAmericangovernmentwastheirenemy.Suchasituationwoulddoubtless
stimulateintensefearsintheAmericanpublic.SovietapprehensivenessisfurtherincreasedbythefactthatSiberiarelativelyundeveloped
anduninhabitedservesasamagnettotheChinesemasses,andthatRussoChineseterritorialarrangementsareofahistoricallydubious
character.

107
relevant,wouldinevitablycausefarreachinginternalpoliticalinstabilityintheSovietUnionandinSoviet
dominatedEasternEurope.
Inlargemeasure,thisconservativeLeninistattitudereflectsRussia'sdelayedmodernizationand
politicaldevelopment.Intermsoftheglobalcity,theSovietUnionrepresentsanarchaicreligiouscommunity
thatexperiencesmodernityexistentiallybutnotquiteyetnormatively.9

PolicyImplications
TheforegoinggeneralpropositionspointtoseveralimmediateimplicationsforAmericanforeignpolicy,in
termsbothofguidingassumptionsandofthedesirableforeignposture.Beforeelaborating,letusfirstpositthese
implicationsintheirmostsuccinctform:aposturebasedonideologicalconsiderationshasbecomedatedan
AmericanSovietaxisisnotlikelytobethebasisforanewinternationalsystemtraditionalspheresofinfluence
areincreasinglyunviableeconomicdeterminisminregardtothelessdevelopedcountriesortothecommunist
statesdoesnotprovideasoundbasisforpolicyregionalalliancesagainstindividualnationsarebecoming
obsolescentanextensiveAmericanmilitarypresenceabroadisbecomingcounterproductivetoAmerican
interestsandtothegrowthofaninternationalcommunityAmericandiplomaticmachinerydevelopedinthe
preglobalandpretechnetronicage hasbecomeoutmodedandrequiresextensivemodernization.
AlthoughAmericanforeignpolicyhasnotbeenasundifferentiatedlyanticommunistasitscriticshave
founditconvenienttoassert,* therehasbeenastrongrhetoricaltendencyinAmericanofficialcirclestoreduce
internationalproblemstoanideologicalconfrontationandtoidentifyradicalchangeascontrarytoAmerican
interests.Henceforth,localtransformationsinvariouspartsoftheworldarelesslikelytobeseenaspartofa
universalthreatinaddition,thegradualpluralizationofthecommunistworldwillcontinuetoaccelerate
differencesamongthecommunistsystems.ThiswillreducerelianceonactiveAmericanintervention,makingit
imperativeprimarilyindefence ofconcreteAmericaninterestsorinresponsetoanoverthostileactbyapower
withthepotential tothreatentheUnitedStates. AlessideologicalperspectivewillreducetheAmericanSoviet
relationshiptoitsproperproportions.TheprincipalthreattheSovietUnionposestotheUnitedStatesismilitary:
astrongerSovietUnionthereforeinescapablytendstothreatenAmericaaweakerSovietUnionfeelsthreatened
byAmerica.Sinceawarbetweenthetwosuperpowerswouldbemutuallydestructive,armscontrol
arrangementsbetweenthetwocountriesaredictatedbycommonsense.ThecontinuingSALT(StrategicArms
LimitationTalks)betweentheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnioncanbeseenasmorethananegotiation
betweentworivalsinadvertently,preciselybecausetheywillbelengthy,thetalkssignifyadefacto beginning
ofajointcommissiononarmsandstrategy.Althoughlimitedinactualpower,the"commission"graduallyand
perhapsincreasinglywillaffectthewayeachsideacts,stimulatinggreatermutualsensitivitytofeltneedsand
fears.
Inthemeantime,untilabindingagreementisreached,Americantechnologicalsophisticationis
sufficienttoprovidethe necessarydegreeofambiguitytothequalitativeandquantitativepowerrelationship
betweenthetwostates.Inthecurrentphaseofdestructiveparity,thisstrategicandpsychologicalpostureis
neededinordertoreplaceearlierrelianceonmanifestandcredibledeterrencebornofAmericansuperiorityin
destructivepower.Paritydeterrencerequiressomeambiguity,justassuperioritydeterrencedemandedprecise
credibility.
Butoutsidethisrelationshiptheopportunitiesforawiderangingsettlement arerelativelyrestricted.10
AnAmericanSovietaxiswouldberesentedbytoomanystatesandthereforetemptbothWashingtonand
Moscowtoexploittheseresentments.Ineffect,themoresuccessfultheeffortstocreatesuchanaxis,the
strongertheimpedimenttoit.Inaddition,ashasalreadybeenargued,theSovietUniondoesnotrepresentavital
socialalternativethatofferstheworldanattractiveandrelevantmodelforhandlingeitheritsolddilemmasor
particularlythenewonesposedbyscience andtechnology.Asaresult,themostthatAmericacanreasonably
seekisagradualincreaseinSovietinvolvementininternationalcooperationthroughsuchprojectsasjointspace

*
ThechargethattheUnitedStateshasconducteditsforeignpolicyontheassumptionofamonolithicworldcommunistconspiracyisdearto
somescholarlycritics.Inpointoffact,theUnitedStatespioneeredinaidtoYugoslaviainthelate1940sitwasthefirsttoinitiateAmerican
Sovietculturalexchanges,visitsbetweenheadsofstate,andsoon.

Inmorespecificterms,itwouldbedesirableandproperfortheUnitedStatestoaidThailandwitharmsandequipmentshouldthatcountry
bethreatenedbyNorthVietnam.ThesameresponsewouldapplytoaNorthKoreanthreatagainstSouthKorea,orathreatbytheArabstates
againstIsrael.ButinnoneofthesecasesshouldAmericanforcesbe committedunlessamajorpower,i.e.,theUSSRorChina,becomes
directlyinvolved.TotalAmericanabstentionwouldencourageaggression,butAmericanaidshouldsufficetomakethewareitheruselessor
verycostlytotheaggressor.Torepeatdirectinvolvementshouldbereservedforsituationsinwhichapowerwiththecapacitytothreaten
theUnitedStatesisinvolved.

Scienceandtechnologyhavealreadyrevolutionizedtheexerciseofsovereigntybythetwocountriesvisaviseachother.Theutilizationof
theU2S,andsubsequentlyofreconnaissancesatellites,vitiatedtheclaimtounlimitedsovereigntyovernationalairspace,somewhat
undoingSovietmilitarysecrecy.TheacquiescenceoftheSovietUniontotheU2flightswasnecessitatedbyitsinabilitytoshootthese
planesdowninspiteoftheMayi960incident,theprecedentofunilateralinspectionwastherebyassertedandhassincebecomeapractice
followedbybothstates.
Theinherentcomplexityofreachinganarmscontrolagreementis suggestedbythefollowingconclusionbyaspecialistinthefield:"There
isbasisforhope[ofapossibleagreement]ifbothsidescanacceptthefactthatforsometimethemosttheycanexpecttoachieveisa
strategicbalanceatquitehigh,butless rapidlyescalating,forcelevelsandifbothrecognizethatbreakingtheactionreactioncycleshouldbe
givenfirstpriorityinanynegotiations"(GeorgeW.Rathjens,TheFutureoftheStrategicArmsRace, NewYork,1969,p.40).

108
exploration,underseastudies,andsoforth.Cumulatively,thesemayhelpshapeapatternofcollaborative
involvementthatwilleventuallyembraceotherspheres.
Meanwhile,itislikelythatAmericanandRussianinfluencewilldecreaseinareasthatbothnations
havetraditionallyconsideredtheirownspecialdomains.Inamoderncity"stakedout"areasarepossibleonlyin
relationsamongcriminalgangsintheglobalcitysealedspheresofinfluenceareincreasinglydifficultorat
leastcostlytomaintain.EasternEuropeisboundtoremainattractedtotheWest,andonlydirectSoviet
coercioncanimpedewhatwouldotherwisehappenquiterapidly:thelinkageofEasternEuropetoalarger
Europeanentity.EvenSovietforcewillnotbeabletohaltthisprocessentirelythetraditionalculturalattraction
oftheWestistoo strong,anditiscurrentlyreinforcedbygrowingEasternEuropeanrecognitionthat,becauseof
thetechnologicalgapbetweentheEastandtheWest,RussiacannoteffectivelyhelpEasternEuropetoenterthe
postindustrialage.Thisattractionishealthy,forthegradualexpansionofEasternEuropeanlinkswithWestern
EuropeisboundtoaffecttheSovietUnionaswellandlessenitsdoctrinalorientation.
ThenotionofaspecialrelationshipbetweentheUnitedStatesandLatinAmericaisalsoboundto
decay.LatinAmericannationalism,moreandmoreradicalasitwidensitspopularbase,willbedirectedwith
increasinganimosityagainsttheUnitedStates,unlesstheUnitedStatesrapidlyshiftsitsownposture.Ac
cordingly,itwouldbewisefortheUnitedStatestomakeanexplicitmovetoabandontheMonroeDoctrineand
toconcedethatinthenewglobalagegeographicorhemisphericcontiguitynolongerneedbepolitically
decisive.NothingcouldbehealthierforPanAmericanrelationsthanfortheUnitedStatestoplacethemonthe
samelevelasitsrelationswiththerestoftheworld,confiningitselftoemphasisonculturalpoliticalaffinities
(asitdoeswithWesternEurope)andeconomicsocialobligations(asitdoeswiththelessdevelopedcountries).
Itwouldalsobeadvisabletoviewthequestionofthepoliticaldevelopmentofboththecommunistand
thedevelopingcountrieswithagreatdealofpatience.JustastheinfusionofAmericanpowermaynotalwaysbe
thesolution,sorelianceoneconomicgrowthisnoguaranteeofeitherdemocratization,politicalstability,orpro
Americanism.Ashasbeenpointedout,politicalchangeinthecommuniststatesisnotasimplebyproductof
economicdevelopment,andthesusceptibilityofthelessdevelopedcountriestoradicalappealsrisesasthey
begintodevelop.Foreignaidandclosereconomiccontactsarenotapalliativefordeeprootedcrisesora
remedyfortheillsofdeeplyentrenchedideologicalinstitutions.
Thisarguesforanapproachto internationaleconomicrelationsandforeignaidthatisincreasingly
depoliticizedinform,eveniftheultimateunderlyingpurposeremainspolitical.Ifthatpurposeistopromotethe
emergenceofamorecooperativecommunityofnations,irrespectiveof theirindividualinternalsystems,thenit
wouldbeastepintherightdirectiontogiveinternationalbodiesalargerroleineconomicdevelopmentandto
starteliminatingrestrictionsontrade.Suchactionisallthemorelikelytobeeventuallysuccessfulbecauseitis
lessovertlypoliticalandisnotgearedtoexpectationsofrapidandbasicpoliticalchangeachievedthroughdirect
economicleverage.*
Amoredetachedattitudetowardworldrevolutionaryprocessesandalessanxiouspreoccupationwith
theSovietUnionwouldalsohelptheUnitedStatestodevelopadifferentposturetowardChina.ChinaandSouth
Asiaareheavilypopulatedareasthathaveinheritedfrom,thepastcomplexchallengestosocialorganization,
andarestillstrugglingwiththeseoldproblemsatatimewhentheadvancedworldisbeginningtoconfront
problemsofnewdimensions.UntillinksareestablishedwithChinaandthesecaninitiallybesoughtand
directedthroughJapanandWesternEuropeChinawillremainanexcludedandaselfexcludedportionof
mankind,allthemorethreateningbecauseitsbackwardnesswillincreasinglybecombinedwithmassivenuclear
power.Accordingly,theUnitedStates,insteadofbecominganindirectSovietallyagainstChinawhichiswhat
MoscowobviouslywantsshouldencourageeffortsbyothercountriestoseektieswithChina.Inaddition,it
shouldlaunchitsowninitiatives,11 andavoidbecomingentangledinovertantiChinesesecurityarrangements.
Indeed,inourageinternationalsecurityarrangementsoughttoresemblethoseoflargemetropolitancenters:
sucharrangementsaredirectednotagainstspecificorganizationsorindividualsbutagainstthosewhodepart
fromestablishednorms.Thus,anassociationbasedonaconceptofcooperativenationslinkedforavarietyof
purposes,includingsecurity,oughtgraduallytoreplaceexistingalliances,whichareusuallyformulatedinterms
of apotentialaggressor,explicitlyidentifiedeitherinthetreatyorintheaccompanyingrhetoric.Thoughinitially
thiswouldbeonlyaformalisticchangefortheassociationofstateswouldnecessarilyinvolveonlythosethat
sharecertaininterestsandfearsadeliberatelyopenendedstructure,withthesecurityelementsonlyapartial
andsecondaryaspect,wouldavoidperpetuatinginstitutionallytheinevitablebutoftentransientconflictsof
interestsbetweenstates.
Evolutionintheformsofinternationalsecuritywouldfacilitatethegradualrestructuringofthe
Americandefenseposture,particularlybyconcentratingAmericanmilitarypresenceabroadinafewkey
countries.Exceptincountriesthatfeelthemselvesdirectlythreatened,prolongedUnitedStatesmilitarypresence

*
Thisneednotexclude theconcentrationofeffortonspecificstateswhenprospectsforeconomicdevelopmentcoincidewithmorestrictly
politicalAmericaninterests.Inotherwords,internationaleconomicaidforhumanitarianpurposescangohandinhandwithmoreselective
andmoreintensiveeffortsinregardtospecificcountries.

ThismaybeespeciallyrelevanttoeffortstoconstructasystemofcooperationinthePacific.Byitself,itisunlikelythatSoutheastAsia,
evenwithimprovedeconomicperformance,cancreatethefoundationsforregionalsecurity.ButenlargedthroughJapanese,Australian,and
Americanparticipation and notspecificallydirectedagainstChinasomeformsofcooperationcouldgraduallydevelop,andthesystem
mighteventuallyinvolvemoreandmorenations.

109
tendstogalvanizepoliticalhostilitytowardtheUnitedStatesevenintraditionallyfriendlycountries(like
Turkey),andthoughthatpresencewasoncewantedbythecountriesconcerned,ithastendedtobecomean
Americanvestedinterest.Withtherestraintimposedonthewagingofanalloutwarbythedestructivenessof
nuclearweaponsandwiththelikelihoodthatsporadicThirdWorldviolencewillreplacetheprevious
preoccupationwithacentralwar,Americanforcesstationedabroadontheassumptionthattheywillbeneeded
toassurethesecurityofdifferentnationsfromacommonthreatarelessandlessrequiredforthatpurpose.With
someexceptions(forexample,SouthKorea,Berlin,orWestGermany),byandlargebothglobalstabilityand
AmericaninterestswouldprobablynotbejeopardizediftheAmericandefenseposturebecameterritoriallymore
confined(thishasbeentrueoftheSovietUnion,withlittleapparentdamagetoitssecurity),andrelied
increasinglyonlongrangemobility.* Finally,theopportunitiesandthedangersinherentinthescientific
technologicalagerequiresubtlebutimportantchangesinAmericanattitudesandorganization.Thesechanges
willnotcomerapidlytheycannotbeblueprintedindetailtheyareunlikelytobeachieveddramatically.
Nonetheless,toplayaneffectiveworld roleAmericaneedsforeignrelationsmachinerythatexploitsthelatest
communicationstechniquesandusesastyleandorganizationresponsivetothemorecongestedpatternofour
globalexistence.
Thisishardlythecasetoday.Ourdiplomaticmachineryisstilltheproductofthetraditional
arrangementsthatwerecontrivedafter1815andthatwereritualisticallypreoccupiedwithprotocol.Itis
predominantlygearedtogovernmenttogovernmentrelations,oftenneglectingthecurrentlyfarmoreimportant
roleofsocialdevelopments.Itisnoaccidentthatnewspapermen,lessdependentongovernmentalcontactsand
moreinclinedtobecomeabsorbedinagivensociety'slife,haveoftenbeenmoresensitivetothebroadpatternof
changeinforeigncountriesthanhavethelocalAmericandiplomats.Contemporaryforeignrelationsincreasingly
requireskillsinintellectualscientificcommunications,includingtheabilitytocommunicateeffectivelywiththe
creativesegmentsofothersocieties,anditisprecisely inthesefieldsthattheexistingdiplomatictrainingand
procedurearemostdeficient.
Moreover,theentiretraditionofsecretdispatchesandlengthycables,whichdailyoverwhelmState
DepartmentheadquartersinWashington,hassimplynottakenintoaccounttheexplosioninmodern
communications,thedevelopmentofexcellentforeignreportingintheleadingAmericanandforeign
newspapers,andeventheroleoftelevision. Incommentingonthe1969Duncanreport,whichwassimilarly
criticaloftheBritishforeignservice,CanadianpoliticalscientistJamesEayrsnoted:"Toomanypeoplepushtoo
manypensacrosstoomanypiecesofpaper,fillingthemwithworthlessmessages."12 ThomasJeffersononce
complainedthathehadnotheardfromoneofhisambassadorsforayearthepresentSecretaryofStatecould
legitimatelycomplainthathedailyhearstoomuchfromtoomanyunneededambassadors.
TheUnitedStatesisthecountrythatmosturgentlyneedstoreformitsforeignserviceand
policymakingestablishment,anditisbestequippedtoundertakesuchreform.Itisthefirstsocietytobecome
globallyoriented,anditistheonewiththemostextensiveandintensivecommunicationsinvolvement.Its
businesscommunity,moreover,hasalsoacquiredextensiveexperienceinforeignoperationsandhaseffectively
masteredtheartsofaccuratereporting,foreignrepresentation,andcentralcontrolwithoutrelyingonenormous
staffsandredundantoperations.Ithasalsopioneeredintheadoptionofthelatesttechniques,suchasclosed
circuittelevisionconferences,sharedtimecomputers,andotherdevices.
Thoughthisishardlytheplacetooutlinetheneededreformsindetail,thepointremainsthat,giventhe
fundamentalchangesinthewaynationsinteract,anextensivestudyanddrasticreformoftheexisting,highly
traditionalstructureandstyleoftheAmericanforeignserviceislongoverdue.Widerdiplomaticuseofcompu
tersanddirectsoundandsightelectroniccommunicationshouldpermitthereductioninthesizeandnumberof
UnitedStatesforeignmissions,makingthemoperationallysimilartothemoreefficientinternational
corporations.Washington'spolicymakingprocessneedstobesimilarlystreamlinedandfreedfromitstangleof
bureaucraticredtape.13

*
Somestandbyfacilitiesforinternationalpeacekeepingforcescouldbeprovidedif,withtheagreementofthehostcountry,somevacated
UnitedStatesbasesweretakenoverbytheUN.Itshouldinanycase,benotedthatAmericanpublic opinionseemslittledisposedtobackthe
useofAmericanforcestoprotectforeignnations.Inamid1969publicopinionpoll,whichaskedwhetherAmericaoughttoaidforeign
statesifthesewereinvadedbyoutsidecommunistmilitaryforces,thosewhowerewillingtorelyonforcewereinthemajorityonlywith
respecttoCanadaandMexico(57percentand52percentrespectively)thefigureforWestGermanywas38percent,forJapan27percent,
forIsrael9percent(heretheforeignaggressionpostulatedwasnotnecessarilycommunist),forRumania13percentwhencombinedwith
thosewillingtohelpshortofforce,thepercentageforCanadawas79percent,forMexico76percent,forWestGermany59percent,for
Israel44percent,forRumania24percent,forJapan42percent(HarrisPoll,ascitedby Time,May2,1969).
Thenationalmoodcouldeasilychangeinthelightofcircumstances,buttheabovepollissignificantinindicatingageneralattitude.It
suggestsamoreselectiveapproachtowardmilitarycommitmentandmayhavesomebearingonthelikelypublicresponsetotheformation
ofaprofessionalvolunteerarmy.Alarge,conscriptbasedarmywastosomeextentareflectionofthepopulistnationalismstimulatedbythe
FrenchRevolution,whichsaweverycitizenasasoldier.Thishadgreatermeaninginanageofrelativelyunsophisticatedweaponryand
intenseideologicalmotivation.Withbothfactorschangingdrastically,thecaseforamoreprofessionalarmedforce,employedformore
selectivepurposes,gainsweight.

ThiswritercanstateonthebasisofpersonalexperiencewhileservingintheDepartmentofStatethatinmostcasesabetteroratleastas
goodapictureofforeigndevelopmentscanbeobtainedbyreadingthebetter newspapersincluding,ofcourse,theforeignonesthanby
perusingthehundredsofdailytelegrams,oftenreportingcocktailpartytrivia.

110
3.ACommunityoftheDevelopedNations
Thesemoreimmediatelynecessarychangesmustbereinforcedbyabroaderefforttocontaintheglobal
tendenciestowardchaos.Acommunityofthedevelopednationsmusteventuallybeformediftheworldisto
respondeffectivelytotheincreasinglyseriouscrisisthatindifferentwaysnowthreatensboththeadvanced
worldandtheThirdWorld.Persistentdivisionsamongthedevelopedstates,particularlythosebasedon
outmodedideologicalconcepts,will negatetheeffortsofindividualstatestoaidtheThirdWorldinthemore
advancedworldtheycouldevencontributetoaresurgenceofnationalism.

WesternEuropeandJapan
FromanAmericanstandpoint,themoreimportantandpromisingchangesintheyearstocomewill
havetoinvolveWesternEuropeandJapan.Theabilityoftheseareastocontinuetogroweconomicallyandto
maintainrelativelydemocraticpoliticalformswillmorecruciallyaffectthegradualevolutionofanewinterna
tionalsystemthanwilllikelychangesinAmericanSovietrelations.WesternEuropeandJapanoffergreater
possibilitiesforinitiativesdesignedtoweaveanewfabricofinternationalrelations,andbecause,likeAmerica,
theyareintheforefrontofscientificandtechnologicalinnovation,theyrepresentthemostvitalregionsofthe
globe.
ThoughsomescholarsemphasizethevitalityofEuropeannationalism,thebroadthrustofWestern
EuropeandevelopmentistowardincreasingcooperationandmuchmoreimportanttowardaEuropean
consciousness.* FortheyoungerEuropeans,WesternEuropeisalreadyanentityinallbutthepoliticalrespect:
thoughstillanachronisticallygovernedbyaseriesofprovincialchieftains(occasionallyvisitedseriatimbythe
foreignpotentatefromWashington),theirEuropeisfrontierless,opentounlimitedtourism,tothealmost
unlimitedmovementofgoods,andincreasinglytothefreeflowofstudentsandworkers.Tobesure,apositive
regionalismisyettomature,buttheforegoingat leastprovidestheneededpsychologicalbasisforanewEurope.
ThetechnetronicrevolutionhasacceleratedtheappearanceofthisEurope,andtheautarkicideasoftheindustrial
agehavelittleornoholdonittoday.
InEuropetheimpactofscienceand technology,thoughdisruptivewithinsomesocieties(particularly
Italy,whichisjustcompletingtheindustrialphaseofitsdevelopment),hasinspiredincreasedcooperationin
Japan,however,whichlackstheimmediateexternaloutletthatEuropeanunificationprovidesfortheWestern
EuropeansandwhichissubjecttoahighlyvisibleAmericanmilitarypoliticalpresence,ithashadaninternally
aggravatingeffect.Ittendstosharpenthenation'sinternalpoliticalconflicts,polarizingpublicopinionand
renderingthefutureorientationofthecountryuncertain. Theconflictsbetweengenerationsevidentinmostof
theadvancedworldhavespecialgravityinJapan,giventheculturalupheavalproducedbyitsdefeatinWorld
WarIIandtheonlyrecentlyachievedbalancebetweenitstraditionsandmoderndemocraticinstitutions.A
revivalofJapanesenationalismoraturntowardideologicalradicalismwouldseriouslythreatenthehighly
tenuousstructureofpeaceinthePacificanddirectlyaffecttheinterestsoftheUnitedStates,theSovietUnion,
andChina.
Accordingly,aneffortmustbemadetoforgeacommunityofthedevelopednationsthatwould
embracetheAtlanticstates,themoreadvancedEuropeancommuniststates,andJapan.Thesenationsneed not
andforaverylongtimecouldnotformahomogeneouscommunityresemblingEECortheoncehopedfor
Atlanticcommunity.Nonetheless,progressinthatdirectionwouldhelptoterminatethecivilwarthathas
dominatedinternationalpoliticsamongthedevelopednationsforthelasthundredandfiftyyears.Thoughthe
nationalistandideologicaldisputesamongthesenationshavelessandlessrelevancetomankind'srealproblems,
theirpersistencehasprecludedaconstructiveresponsetodilemmasthatbothdemocraticandcommuniststates
increasinglyrecognizeasbeingthekeyissuesofourtimes.Theabsenceofaunifyingprocessofinvolvement
haskeptolddisputesaliveandhasobscuredthepurposesofstatesmanship.
Topostulatetheneedforsuchacommunityandtodefineitscreationasthecomingdecade'smajortask
isnotutopianism.Underthepressuresofeconomics,science,andtechnology,mankindismovingsteadily
towardlargescalecooperation.Despiteperiodicreverses,allhumanhistoryclearlyindicatesprogressinthat
direction.Thequestioniswhetheraspontaneousmovementwillsufficetocounterbalancethedangersalready
noted.Andsincetheanswerisprobablyno,itfollowsthatarealisticresponse callsfordeliberateeffortsto
acceleratetheprocessofinternationalcooperationamongtheadvancednations.
Movementtowardalargercommunityofthedevelopednationswillnecessarilyhavetobepiecemeal,
anditwillnotprecludemorehomogeneousrelationshipswithinthelargerentity.Moreover,suchacommunity

*
ThishasbeendramaticallyillustratedinFrancebypollswhichshowthatFrenchpublicopinion,longheldtobestronglynationalist,
supportstheemergenceofaEuropeangovernmentthatwouldhavedecisivepowersoveralocalFrenchgovernmentinsuchareasas
scientificresearch(66percentforaEuropeangovernment,15percentforadecisiveFrenchgovernment) andforeignpolicy(61percent
and17percent,respectively).ThesepollsindicatethatmostFrenchmenfavoredretainingtheFrenchgovernment'sdecisiveroleonlyin
purelyinternalaffairs,suchassocialpolicy,vacations,education,andsoforth(AlainLancelotandPierreWeill,"TheFrenchandthe
PoliticalUnificationofEurope," Revuefrancaisedesciencepolitique, February1969,pp.14570).

Thus,thecenterrightcoalitionthathasgovernedJapaninthepostwarperiodhasgraduallyshrunk:in 1952itobtained66.1percentofthe
popularvotein1953,65.7percentin1955,63.2percentin1958,57.8percentin1960,57.6percentin1963,54.7percentin1967,
48.8percentandin1969,47.6percent.

111
cannotbeachievedbyfusingexistingstatesintoonelargerentity.Thedesiretocreateonelarger,formalstateis
itselfanextensionofreasoningderivedfromtheageofnationalism.Itmakesmuchmoresensetoattempt to
associateexistingstatesthroughavarietyofindirecttiesandalreadydevelopinglimitationsonnational
sovereignty.
Inthisprocess,theSovietUnionandEasternEuropeontheonehandandWesternEuropeontheother
willcontinueforalongtime toenjoymoreintimaterelationshipswithintheirownareas.Thatisunavoidable.
Thepoint,however,istodevelopabroaderstructurethatlinkstheforegoinginvariousregionalorfunctional
formsofcooperation.Suchastructurewouldnotsweepaside UnitedStatesSovietnuclearrivalry,whichwould
remaintheaxisofworldmilitarymight.Butinthebroadercooperativesetting,thecompetitionbetweenthe
UnitedStatesandtheSovietUnioncouldeventuallyresembleinformlatenineteenthcenturyAngloFrench
colonialcompetition:FashodadidnotvitiatetheemergingEuropeanentente.
Movementtowardsuchacommunitywillinallprobabilityrequiretwobroadandoverlappingphases.
Thefirstofthesewouldinvolvetheforgingofcommunitylinksamong theUnitedStates,WesternEurope,and
Japan,aswellaswithothermoreadvancedcountries(forexample,Australia,Israel,Mexico).Thesecondphase
wouldincludetheextensionoftheselinkstomoreadvanced communistcountries.Someofthemforexample,
YugoslaviaorRumaniamaymovetowardcloserinternationalcooperationmorerapidlythanothers,andhence
thetwophasesneednotnecessarilybesharplydemarcated.

StructureandFocus
Theemergingcommunityofdevelopednationswouldrequiresomeinstitutionalexpression,even
thoughitwouldbeunwisetoseektocreatetoomanybindingintegratedprocessesprematurely.Acasecanbe
madeforinitiallysettinguponlyahighlevelconsultativecouncilforglobalcooperation,regularlybringingto
gethertheheadsofgovernmentsofthedevelopedworldtodiscusstheircommonpoliticalsecurity,educational
scientific,andeconomictechnologicalproblems,aswellastodealfromthatperspectivewiththeirmoral
obligationstowardthedevelopingnations.Somepermanentsupportingmachinerycouldprovidecontinuityto
theseconsultations.
Accordingly,suchacouncilforglobalcooperationwouldbesomethingmorethanOECDinthatit
wouldoperateonahigherlevelandwouldalsobeconcernedwithpoliticalstrategy,butitwouldbemore
diffusedthanNATOinthatitwouldnotseektoforgeintegratedmilitarypoliticalstructures.Nevertheless,a
councilofthissortperhapsinitiallylinkingonlytheUnitedStates,Japan,andWesternEurope,andthus
bringingtogetherthepoliticalleadersofstatessharingcertaincommonaspirationsandproblemsofmodernity
wouldbemoreeffectiveindevelopingcommonprogramsthanistheUnitedNations,whoseefficacyis
unavoidablylimitedbytheColdWarandbynorthsouthdivisions.
TheinclusionofJapanwouldbeparticularlyimportant,bothtotheinternaldevelopmentofJapanese
lifeandtothevitalityofsuchacommunity.Japanisaworldpower,andinaworldofelectronicandsupersonic
communicationsitisa psychologicalandpoliticalerrortothinkofitasprimarilyanAsiannation.Japan needs
anoutletcommensuratewithitsownadvanceddevelopment,notonethatplacesitinthepositionofagiant
amongpygmiesandthatexcludesit defacto fromthecouncilsoftherealworldpowers.TheregularAmerican
Japanesecabinetleveltalksareadesirablebilateralarrangement,butJapanwillbecomemorefullyand
creativelyinvolvedinworldaffairsinalargersettingofequalpartners.
Withoutsuchalargersetting,thereisdangerthattheextraordinarypaceofJapanesesocioeconomic
developmentwillbecomedestructive.TheautomaticprojectionsofJapanesegrowthintothefuture,madewith
increasingfrequencyinthelate1960s,aremisleadingtheydonotmakeallowanceforthedestabilizingeffectof
theimpactofchangeonJapanesetraditions.Thereisarealpossibilitythatinthe1970sJapanwillundergo
extremelyupsettinginternalconflictsunlessinsomewayJapaneseidealismisbothstimulatedandturnedto
goalslargerthaninsularandpersonalhedonism.Internationalcooperation,involvingthesharingwithJapanof
responsibilityaswellasofpower,couldprovidesuchanoutlet.
Suchacouncilwouldalsoprovideapoliticalsecurityframeworkinwhichthesecurityconcernsofeach
statecouldbeviewedinacontextthattakesintoaccounttheinescapableconnectionsbetweensuchmattersas
SovietpolicyinBerlinandtheSinoSovietcrisis,Chinesenucleardevelopmentanditsimplicationsbothfor
JapanesesecurityandforEastWestrelationsinEurope,andsoon.Similarly,matterssuchasJapanese
rearmament,possiblyevenJapan'sacquisitionofnucleararms(thoughtbyincreasinglylargenumbersof
Japanesetobelikelyduringthesecond halfofthe1970s),14 couldbeviewedintermsofthisbroadersignificance
ratherthanasaresponsetopurelylocalconsiderations.Indeed,giventhenatureofmodernscientificdevelop
mentsandcommunications,itisnottooearlytothinkoftechnologicalcooperationbetweenWesternEuropeand
Japan,aswellasbetweenbothofthemandtheUnitedStates,insomefieldsofdefense.
Politicalsecurityeffortswould,however,inallprobabilitybesecondinimportancetoeffortsto
broadenthescopeof educationalscientificandeconomictechnologicalcooperationamongthemostadvanced
industrialnationsthatarebecomingpostindustrialandareinsomeregardsmovingintothepostnationalage.
Theprojectedworldinformationgrid,forwhichJapan,WesternEurope,andthe UnitedStatesaremostsuited,*

*
"WesternEuropeandJapanpresentthemostimmediateopportunitiesfortheworldinformationgrid.TheEuropeansandtheJapaneseare

112
couldcreatethebasisforacommoneducationalprogram,fortheadoptionofcommonacademicstandards,for
theorganizedpoolingofinformation,andforamorerationaldivisionoflaborinresearchanddevelopment.
ComputersatM.I.T.havealreadybeenregularly"conversing"withLatinAmericanuniversities,andthereisno
technicalobstacletopermanentinformationlinkagebetween,forexample,theuniversitiesofNewYork,
Moscow,Tokyo,MexicoCity,andMilan.15 Suchscientificinformationallinkagewouldbeeasiertosetupthan
jointeducationalprogramsandwouldencourageaninternationaleducationalsystembyprovidinganadditional
stimulustoaninternationaldivisionofacademic labour,uniformacademicstandards,andacrossnational
poolingofacademicresources.
Stepsinthatdirectioncouldbeacceleratedbysomesymbolicjointactions.Spaceexplorationis
probablythemostdramaticexampleofhumanadventuremadepossiblebyscience,butcurrentlyitisalmost
entirelymonopolizedonacompetitivebasisbytheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnion.ThepoolingofWestern
European,Japanese,andAmericanresourcesforaspecificjointundertakingcoulddomuchtoaccelerate
internationalcooperation.16 Inaddition,itmaybedesirabletodevelopaninternationalconventiononthesocial
consequencesofappliedscienceandtechnology.Thisnotonlywouldpermittheecologicalandsocialeffectsof
newtechniquestobeweighedinadvance butwouldalsomakeitpossibletooutlawtheuseofchemicalstolimit
andmanipulatemanandtopreventotherscientificabusestowhichsomegovernmentsmaybetempted.
Intheeconomictechnologicalfieldsomeinternationalcooperationhasalreadybeenachieved,but
furtherprogresswillrequiregreaterAmericansacrifices.Moreintensiveeffortstoshapeanewworldmonetary
structurewillhavetobeundertaken,withsomeconsequentrisktothepresentrelativelyfavorableAmerican
position.Furtherprogresswouldinallprobabilityrequiretheabandonmentofrestrictions,imposedbyCongress
in1949and1954,ontheinternationalactivitiesofAmericancorporationsandontheirforeignsubsidiariesand
plants.Theappearanceofatrulyinternational structureofproductionandfinancingwouldhavetogohandin
handwiththeemergenceofa"theoryofinternationalproduction,"neededtosupplementourpresenttheoriesof
internationaltrade.* Progressalongtheselineswouldalsofacilitatethecreationofafreetradearea,whichcould
betargetedinprogressivestages.

TheCommunistStates
TheSovietUnionmaycometoparticipateinsuchalargerframeworkofcooperationbecauseofthe
inherentattractionoftheWestfortheEasternEuropeanswhom theSovietUnionwouldhavetofollowlestit
losethemaltogetherandbecauseoftheSovietUnion'sownfeltneedforincreasedcollaborationinthe
technologicalandscientificrevolution.ThatEasternEuropeanswillmoveclosertoWesternEuropeiscertain.
Theeventsof1968inCzechoslovakiaaremerelyanauguryofwhatistocome,inspiteofforcibleSovietefforts
tothecontrary.ItisonlyamatteroftimebeforeindividualcommuniststatescomeknockingatthedoorsofEEC
orOECDhence,broaderEastWestarrangementsmayevenbecomeawayforMoscowtomaintaineffective
linkswiththeEasternEuropeancapitals.
TheevolutionofYugoslavthinkingandbehavioratteststothefactthatthecommuniststatesarenot
immunetotheprocessofchangeandtointelligentWesterninitiatives.Slightlymorethantwentyyearsago,
YugoslavpronouncementswerenotunlikethoseoftheChinesetoday.YetYugoslavianowleadsallcommunist
statesineconomicreform,intheopennessofitssociety,andinideologicalmoderation.Inthelate1960sit
joinedGATT, andYugoslavia'sassociationwithEFTAandperhapseventuallywiththeCommonMarketis
aprobability.Whilestillcommittedtothenotionof"socialism,"Yugoslavia'sviewsoninternationalpoliticsare
moderate,andtheyhavehadasignificantimpactoncommunisminEasternEurope.
Similartrendsareslowlydevelopingelsewhereinthecommunistworld.Tobesure,theyareopposed
byentrenchedbureaucrats,butinthelongrunthereactionariesarefightingalosingbattle.Socialforcesare
againstthem,andtheconservativeelitesareonthedefensiveeverywhere.Itisdoubtfulwhethertheycan

bothincreasinglysensitivetotheimportanceofinformationstorageandtransfernetwork,similartotheonenowevolvinginthiscountry.
"TheEuropeans'successinthisprojectwilldepend,inpart,ontheirabilitytomodifyanumberofpresentrestrictiveattitudes.Oneisthe
lingeringtraditionofsecretivenessintheirresearchanddevelopmentwork.Anotheristhenationalisticinhibitioninsharingregional
informationresources.Itwouldbeunfortunateiftheseattitudesheldupformationofthenetwork,sinceEuropeans,overthelongrun,cannot
thinkintermsof'Italianresearch'or'Norwegianresearch'anymorethantheyareabletomake adistinctionbetweenresearchdonein
CaliforniaorNewJersey.
"ThereiseveryreasontoencouragetheEuropeanstoovercometheseproblems.TheAmericaninformationtransfernetworkshouldbe
linkeddirectlyintotheirregionalsystem,permittingabroaderexchangeofinformation"(TelevisionQuarterly, Spring1968,pp.1011).
*
JuddPolkarguesthat"whatweneedisnotatheoryofinternationaltradethatabstractsfromproduction,butatheoryofaninternational
productionwhich,beingspecialized,presupposestrade."Hegoesontonotethat"thequestionisnotoneofintrudingintotheeconomyof
othersitisamatterofreleasingtheproductioncapabilitiesofallnations.Theproblemsofproductionseenfromthestandpointofan
economyvastlylargerthanthatofthenationarenewtoeveryone.TheUnitedStatescannotabandonitsconcernforthenationalbalanceof
payments,but,asnoted,itisbeginningtoperceivetheurgentneedforasystemofinternationalaccountsascomprehensive asthepresent
nationalaccounts.Itparticularlyneedstofollowthewholepictureoftheinternationalmovementoffactorsofproduction.Justtofeelthis
needistohavemadeextraordinaryprogressinashort20years,fortherecannotoccuradislodgmentofthedollarfromitsinternational
functionwithoutacripplingdislodgmentoftheproductionandtradeitsupports.Norcantherebeapracticalimprovementinthisfunction
exceptinthecontextofthecashandcreditrequirementsofthenewworldeconomy"("TheNewWorldEconomy," ColumbiaJournalof
WorldBusiness, JanuaryFebruary1968,p.15).

GATT:GeneralAgreementonTradeandTariffs.

EFTA:EuropeanFreeTradeAssociation.

113
reverse,thoughtheycertainlycandelay,thetrendtowardamoreopen,humanistic,andlessideologicalsociety.
Theresistanceofthoseregimesdominatedbyentrenchedconservativebureaucracieswillbefurtherweakenedif
theWestviewstheColdWarasprimarilyduetothefadingselfservingdoctrinesoftheCommunistrulers,ifit
approachestheColdWarmoreasanaberrationandlessasamission.
OverthelongrunandourearlieranalysisindicatesthatitwouldbealongrunSoviet
responsivenesscouldbestimulatedthroughthedeliberateopeningofEuropeancooperativeventurestotheEast
andthroughthecreationofnewEastWestbodiesdesignedinitiallyonlytopromoteadialogue,theexchangeof
information,andtheencouragementofacooperativeethos.Thedeliberatedefinitionofcertaincommon
objectivesineconomicdevelopment,technologicalassistance,andEastWestsecurityarrangementscouldhelp
stimulateasenseofcommonpurposeandthegrowthofarudimentaryinstitutionalframework.(Forexample,
throughformallinksintheeconomicspherebetweenOECDandtheCouncilforMutualEconomic Assistance
(CEMA)inthesecurityspherebetweenNATOandtheWarsawPact,andthroughUnitedStatesSovietarms
controlarrangementsorbythecreationofaninformalEastWestpoliticalconsultativebody.)*17
Alargercooperativegoalwouldalsohave otherbeneficialeffects.Foronething,itislikelythatthe
SovietUnionwouldinitiallydemonstratehesitancyorevenhostilityinthefaceofWesterninitiative.Therefore,
anapproachbasedonbilateral AmericanSovietaccommodationasadvocatedby someAmericansmight
provetobeabortiveandwouldconsequentlyintensifytensions.Buteffortstocreatealargercooperative
communityneednotbehaltedbyinitialSovietreluctance,norcantheybeeasilyexploitedbyMoscowto
perpetuatetheColdWar.Onthecontrary,SovietresistancewouldonlyresultinmorecostlySovietisolation.By
seekingtocutEasternEuropeofffromtheWest,theSovietUnionwouldinevitablyalsodenyitselfthefruitsof
closerEastWesttechnologicalcooperation.In1985thecombinedGNPoftheUnitedStates,WesternEurope,
andJapanwillberoughlysomewherearoundthreetrilliondollars,orfourtimesthatofthelikelySovietGNP
(assumingafavorablegrowthratefortheSoviets)withsomeEasternEuropeanstatesgraduallyshiftingtoward
greatercooperationwithEECandOECD,theSovietUnioncouldabstainonlyatgreatcosttoitsown
developmentandworldposition.

RisksandAdvantages
Theshapingofsuchacommunitymaywellprovokechargesthatitsemergencewouldaccentuatethe
divisionsinaworldalreadythreatenedbyfragmentation.Theanswertosuchobjectionsistwofold:First,
divisionalreadyexists,andourpresentproblemishowbesttodealwithit.Aslongastheadvancedworldis
itselfdividedandinconflict,itwillbeunabletoformulatecoherentgoals.Thelessdevelopedcountriesmay
evenbebenefitingfromtheinternalrivalriesinthedevelopedworld,whichinciteittocompeteinextendingaid
butsincesuchaidtendstobefocusedonshorttermpoliticaladvantagestothedonor,itissubjecttopolitical
fluctuationsandmaydeclineastherivalrydeclinesinintensity.
Second,theemergenceofamorecooperativestructureamongthemoredevelopednationsislikelyto
increasethepossibilityofalongrangestrategyforinternationaldevelopmentbasedontheemergingglobal
consciousnessratherthanonoldrivalries.
Itcouldhencediminishthedesireforimmediatepoliticalpayoffsandthuspavethewayformore
internationalized,mutilateralforeignaid.WhilethevexingproblemsoftariffsandtradewiththeThirdWorld
arenotlikelytodisappear,theymightbecomemoremanageableinasettingthatreducesboththeimpediments
totrulyinternationalproductionand,consequently,agivencountry'sstakeinthisorthatprotectivearrangement.
Theunderlyingmotivationforsuchacommunityis,however,extremelyimportant.Ifthiscommunitydoesnot
springfromfearandhatredbutfromawiderrecognitionthatworldaffairswillhave tobeconductedona
differentbasis,itwouldnotintensifyworlddivisionsashavealliancesinthepastbutwouldbeasteptoward
greaterunity.
Itsappearancewouldthereforeassistandperhapsevenacceleratethefurtherdevelopmentofpresent
worldbodiessuchastheWorldBankwhichareinanycase defacto institutionsofthedevelopedworld
gearedtoassistingtheThirdWorld.Agreatersenseofcommunitywithinthedevelopedworldwouldhelpto
strengthentheseinstitutionsbybackingthemwiththesupportofpublicopinionitmightalsoeventuallyleadto
thepossibilityofsomethingalongthelinesofaglobaltaxationsystem.
Morespecifically,Americawouldgainseveraladvantagesfromitsidentificationwithalargergoal.
SuchagoalwouldtendtoreducetheincreasingdangerofAmericanisolationintheworldthisisolationis
unavoidablybeingintensified18 bytheproblemsassociatedwithAmerica'sdomesticleapintothefuture.More
over,theUnitedStatescannotshapetheworldsinglehanded,eventhoughitmaybetheonlyforcecapableof
stimulatingcommoneffortstodoso.Byencouragingandbecomingassociatedwithothermajorpowersina
jointresponsetotheproblemsconfrontingman'sfifeonthisplanet,andbyjointlyattemptingtomakedeliberate
useofthepotentialofferedbyscienceandtechnology,theUnitedStateswouldmoreeffectivelyachieveitsoften

*
Thisisnotonlyamatteroftechnologicalandmultilateraldeterminism,assuggestedbyPierreHassnerinhis"ImplicationsofChangein
EasternEuropefortheAtlanticAlliance"(Orbis,Spring1969,p.246),butalsoadeliberate,thoughverylongrange,strategy.

Inmyview,suchacommunitywouldalsoprovide abaseforimplementingmorefarreachingandvisionaryproposalsforglobal
cooperationforexample,thosecontainedinthestimulating"BulletinofPeaceProposals"preparedbytheInternationalPeaceResearch
Institute,Oslo,intheautumnof1969.

114
proclaimedgoal.
Thequestforthatgoalcannot,however,begeographicallyconfinedtotheAtlanticworld,norshould
itsmotivationbeevenimplicitlyderivedfromsecurityfearsstimulatedbyamajoroutsidepower.Onereasonfor
thedecliningpopularappealoftheAtlanticconceptisthelatter'sassociationwiththeconditionsofpostWorld
WarIIEuropeandwiththefearofSovietaggression.Whilesuchaconceptwasaboldideaatthetime,itisnow
historicallyandgeographicallylimited.Abroader,moreambitious,andmorerelevantapproachiscalledforby
therecognitionthattheproblemsofthe1970swillbelessovertlyideological,morediffusetheywillmore
widelyreflectthemalaiseofaworldthatisstillunstructuredpoliticallyandhighlyinegalitarianeconomically.
SuchanapproachwouldalsotendtoendthedebateoverAmericanglobalism.The factisthatmuchof
theinitiativeandimpetusforanundertakingonsograndascalewillhavetocomefromtheUnitedStates.Given
theolddivisionsintheadvancedworldandtheweaknessesandparochialismofthedevelopingnationsthe
absenceofconstructiveAmericaninitiativewouldattheveryleastperpetuatethepresentdriftinworldaffairs.
ThatdriftcannotbehaltediftheUnitedStatesfollowsthepathwhichitisnowfashionabletoadvocate
disengagement.Evenif,despitetheweightandmomentumofitspower,Americacoulddisengageitself,thereis
somethingquaintlyoldfashionedintheeloquentdenunciationofUnitedStatesglobalinvolvement,especially
whenitcomesfromEuropeans,whohaveshownalessthanadmirableabilitytomaintainworldpeace.
Moreover,eventhemostbrilliantindictmentofUnitedStatespolicycannoterasethefactthat,despiteits
allegedlylongrecordoferrorsandmisconceptions,theUnitedStateshassomehowbecometheonlypowerthat
hasbeguntothink inglobaltermsandactivelyseekconstructiveworldwidearrangements.Inthisconnection,it
isrevealingtonotethatinitiativessuchastheTestBanTreatyortheNonProliferationTreatywereopposedby
governmentshabituallypraisedbysomecriticsofUnitedStatesglobalinvolvement.Thiscountry'scommitment
tointernationalaffairsonaglobalscalehasbeendecidedbyhistory.Itcannotbeundone,andtheonlyremaining
relevantquestioniswhatitsformandgoalswillbe.
Thedebateonglobalismdid,however,performoneusefulfunction.Thoughmuchofthecriticismdid
notprovideameaningfulpolicyprogram,* thedebatepromptedgreaterrecognitionoftheneedtoredefine
America'sworldroleinthelightofnewhistoricalcircumstances.Thrustintotheworldbyitsowngrowthandby
thecataclysmsoftwoworldwars,AmericafirstactivelypromotedandthenguaranteedtheWest'seconomic
recoveryand militarysecurity.Thispostureofnecessityheavilymarkedbymilitarypreoccupationshas
increasinglyshiftedtowardagreaterinvolvementwiththelesspoliticalandmorebasicproblemsthatmankind
willfaceintheremainingthirdofthecentury.
JohnKennedycaughttheessenceofAmerica'snovelpositionintheworldwhenhesawhimselfas"the
firstAmericanPresidentforwhomthewholeworldwas,inasense,domesticpolitics."19Indeed,Kennedywas
thefirst"globalist"presidentoftheUnitedStates.Roosevelt,forallhisinternationalism,essentiallybelievedin
an1815likeglobalarrangementinwhichthe"BigFour"wouldhavespecificspheresofinfluence.Truman
primarilyrespondedtoaspecificcommunistchallenge,andhispoliciesindicatedaclearregionalpriority.
Eisenhowercontinuedonthesamecourse,occasionallyapplyingEuropeanprecedentstootherregions.These
shiftsweresymptomaticofthechangingUnitedStatesrole.WithKennedycameasensethateverycontinent
andeverypeoplehadtherighttoexpectleadershipandinspirationfromAmerica,andthatAmericaowedan
almostequalinvolvementtoeverycontinentandeverypeople.Kennedy'sevocativestylewhichinsomeways
appealedmoretoemotionthantointellect,stressedtheuniversalhumanismoftheAmericanmission,whilehis
romanticfascinationwiththeconquestofspacereflectedhisconvictionthatAmerica'sscientificleadershipwas
necessarytoitseffectiveworldrole.
Globalinvolvementis,however,qualitativelydifferentfromwhathastodatebeenknownasforeign
policy.Itisinimicaltoclearcutformulasandtraditionalpreferences.Butthisintellectualcomplexitydoesnot
negatethefactthatforbetterorforworsetheUnitedStatesissaddledwithmajoresponsibilityforshapingthe
frameworkforchange.Thispointofviewissubjecttoeasymisrepresentationandishighlyunpopularinsome
circles.WorldconditionsdonotcallforaPaxAmericana,noristhistheageofAmericanomnipotence.
Nevertheless,itisafactthatunlesstheUnitedStates,thefirstglobalsociety,usesitspreponderantinfluenceto
givepositivedirectionandexpressiontotheacceleratingpaceofchange,thatchangenotonlymightbecome
chaoswhenlinkedtooldconflictsandantipathiesbutcouldeventuallythreatentheefforttoimprovethe

*
Evenacriticwhoidentifieshimselfassympathetictothe"isolationistorneoisolationist"schoolconcludesthatthealternativesofferedby
themoretraditionalstudentsofinternationalpolitics,suchasLippmannorMorgenthau,haverelativelylittleofaconstructivenaturetooffer
(CharlesGati,"AnotherGrandDebate?TheLimitationistCritiqueofAmericanForeignPolicy,"WorldPolitics, October1968,especiallypp.
15051).Moreover,thepropensityofevensomeperceptivewriterstoconcentrate almostentirelyontheshortcomingsofAmericanforeign
policyperformancemakesitdifficultforthemtoaccountforitsrelativelyrespectableperformanceduringthelasttwentyyearsascompared
with,forexample,thatoftheEuropeanpowers.Thus,StanleyHoffmann'smassive(556pages)andinplacesstimulatingbook, Gulliver's
Troubles (NewYork,1968),focusesalmostentirelyontheimpatience,wrongheadedness,misunderstanding,selfrighteousness,gullibility,
condescension,inflexibility,andparanoidstyleofAmericanforeignpolicy.Thisleadshim,onamorepopularlevel,tosayinamagazine
article("PolicyfortheSeventies,"Life,March21,1969)that"Americans...havebeenpreparedbyhistoryandinstinctforaworldinblack
andwhite,inwhichthereiseitherharmonyoranalloutcontest."Hedoesnotexplainwhy,inthatcase,theUnitedStatesandtheSoviet
Unionweresuccessfulinmaintainingpeace,whereasinthepasttheEuropeanpowershadfailedtodoso.
Atthesametime,traditionalistswhoemphasizethecontinuedvitalityofnationalismareinherentlyinclinedtopostulatepoliciesthatareno
longerintunewiththetimes.Thus,ontheveryeveofDeGaulle'srepudiationbytheFrenchpeople,Hoffmanncouldspeakofa
"fundamentalrapprochement"withDeGaulle("AmericaandFrance,"TheNewRepublic,April12,1969,p.22).

115
natureandthecharacterofAmericandomesticlife.
Tosumup:Thoughtheobjectiveofshapingacommunityofthedevelopednationsislessambitious
thanthegoalofworldgovernment,itismoreattainable.ItismoreambitiousthantheconceptofanAtlantic
communitybuthistoricallymorerelevanttothenewspatialrevolution.Thoughcognizantofpresentdivisions
betweencommunistandnoncommunistnations,itattemptstocreateanewframeworkforinternationalaffairs
notbyexploitingthesedivisionsbutratherbystrivingtopreserveandcreateopeningsforeventual
reconciliation.Finally,itrecognizesthattheworld'sdevelopednationshaveacertainaffinity,andthatonlyby
nurturingagreatersenseofcommunalityamongthemcananeffectiveresponsetotheincreasingthreatofglobal
fragmentationwhichitselfintensifiesthegrowingworldwideimpatiencewithhumaninequalitybe
mounted.
ThereisthusacloseconjunctionbetweenthehistoricmeaningofAmerica'sinternaltransitionand
America'sroleintheworld.Earlierinthisbook,domesticprioritieswerereducedtothreelargeareas:theneed
foraninstitutionalrealignmentofAmericandemocracytoenhancesocialresponsivenessandblurtraditional
distinctionsbetweengovernmentalandnongovernmentalsocialprocessestheneedforanticipatoryinstitutions
tocopewiththeunintendedconsequencesoftechnologicalscientificchangetheneedforeducationalreformsto
mitigatetheeffectsofgenerationalandracialconflictsandpromoterationalhumanistvaluesintheemerging
newsociety.
Theinternationalequivalentsofourdomesticneedsaresimilar:thegradualshapingofacommunityof
thedevelopednationswouldbearealisticexpressionofouremergingglobalconsciousnessconcentrationon
disseminatingscientificandtechnologicalknowledgewouldreflectamorefunctionalapproachtoman's
problems,emphasizingecologyratherthanideologyboththeforegoingwouldhelptoencouragethespreadofa
morepersonalizedrationalhumanistworldoutlookthatwouldgraduallyreplacetheinstitutionalizedreligious,
ideological,andintenselynationalperspectivesthathavedominatedmodernhistory.
ButwhateverthefuturemayactuallyholdforAmericaandfortheworld,thetechnetronicageby
makingsomuchmoretechnologicallyfeasibleandelectronicallyaccessiblemakedeliberatechoiceabout
moreissuesmoreimperative.Reason,belief,andvalueswillinteractintensely,puttingagreaterpremiumthan
everbeforeontheexplicitdefinitionofsocialpurposes.Towhatendsshouldourpowerbedirected,howshould
oursocialdialoguebepromoted,inwhatwayshouldtheneededactionbetakenthesearebothphilosophical
andpoliticalissues.Inthetechnetronicera,philosophyandpoliticswillbecrucial.

116
ReferenceNotes
I:TheGlobalImpactoftheTechnetronicRevolution
1.Partofthissectionisadapted,inarevisedform,frommy"AmericaintheTechnetronicAge," Encounter, January1968.
Inthisconnection,IwishtoacknowledgethepioneeringworkdoneonthisgeneralsubjectatColumbiaUniversitybyDaniel
BellandatMichiganUniversitybyDonaldMichael.
2.NorbertWiener, TheHumanUseofHumanBeings, NewYork,
1967,PP.18990
3.TestimonybyDr.D.Krech, GovernmentResearchSubcommitteeoftheSenateGovernmentOperationsCommittee, as
reportedby TheNewYorkTimes, April3,1968,p.32seealsoGordonR.Taylor,TheBiologicalTimeBomb,NewYork,
1967.
4. TheNewYorkTimes, January18,1969.
5.DonaldN.Michael,"SomeSpeculationsontheSocialImpactofTechnology,"mimeographedtextofaddresstothe
ColumbiaSeminaronTechnologyandSocialChange,1966,p.11.
6.Michael,pp.67.
7.SirJulianHuxley,"TheCrisisinMan'sDestiny," Playboy, January1967,p.4.
8.SeeNealJ.Dean,"TheComputerComesofAge," HarvardBusinessReview,JanuaryFebruary1968,pp.8391.Onthe
computerinitiated"profoundrevolutioninourpatternsofthoughtandcommunication,"seeAnthonyG.Oettinger,
"EducationalTechnology,"in TowardtheYear2.018, ForeignPolicyAssociation,NewYork,1968.
9. TheUnitedStatesandtheWorldinthe1985Era, Syracuse,N.Y.,1964,pp.9091.
10.SeeJohnP.RobinsonandJamesW.Swinehart,"WorldAffairsandtheTVAudience," TelevisionQuarterly,Spring
1968.
11.CyrilE.Black,"SovietSociety:AComparativeView,"in ProspectsforSovietSociety, AllenKassof,ed.,NewYork,
1968,p.36A.B.Trowbridge,"TheAtlanticCommunityLooksto theFuture," DepartmentofStateBulletin, July17,1967,
p.72.
12."TheTechnologicalGapinRussia," TheEconomist,February9,1969
13.JohnDiebold,"IstheGapTechnological?" ForeignAffairs, January1968,pp.27691.
14.ForsomeexamplesofthepredominanceofAmericancommunicationsamongtheengineeringtechnicaleliteinLatin
America,seePaulJ.Deutschmannetal.,CommunicationandSocialChangeinLatinAmerica,NewYork,1968,especially
pp.56,70.
15.SeeLeonardH.Marks,"AmericanDiplomacyandaChangingTechnology," TelevisionQuarterly, Spring1968,pp.7,
9.
16.BruceM.Russett,"IsThereaLongRunTrendtowardConcentrationintheInternationalSystem?" Journalof
ComparativePoliticalStudies,April1968.Forsomewhatforcedanalogiestopastempires,seeGeorgeLiska, Imperial
America,Baltimore,1966andforahighlycriticalappraisal,seeClaudeJulien, L'Empireamericain,Paris,1968,especially
chaps.1,611alsoRonaldSteel, PaxAmericana, NewYork,1967. Foracriticismofthe"imperial"approach,seeStanley
Hoffmann,Gulliver'sTroubles,NewYork,1968,pp.4651.
17. TheNewYorkTimes, November17,1968,citesgovernmentsourcesasindicatingthat200,000Americanciviliansare
servingabroadforcommitments,seeUSCommitmentstoForeignPowers,CommitteeonForeignRelations,Washington,
D.C.,1967,especiallypp.4971fordataonbases,see TheNewYorkTimes, April9,1969.
18.JuddPolk,"TheNewWorldEconomy," ColumbiaJournalofWorldBusiness, JanuaryFebruary1968,p.8,estimates
thatUnitedStatesinvestmentabroadaccountsfortotaldeliveriesofsome$165billion.
19.JosephKraft,"TheSpreadofPower," TheNewYorkTimesBookReview,September22,1968,p.10(areviewof
Amaury deRiencourt'sTheAmericanEmpire, NewYork,1968).
20.Inthisconnection,compareHarryMagdoff'sTheAgeofImperialism, NewYork,1969,whichseesAmericasimplyasa
politicallymotivatedimperialpower,withtheRockefellerFoundation'sPresident'sFiveYearReviewandAnnualReport,
1968,whichdescribestheFoundation'sforeignactivities.TheFordFoundationcouldalsobecited.
21.HermanKahnandAnthonyJ.Wiener, TheYear2000,NewYork,1967,p.149.
22.SeeKahnandWiener,tablespp.16165and12330,forafullerdiscussionoftheassumptionsonwhichthese
calculationsarebased.Seealso,however,EverettE.Hagan,"SomeFactsaboutIncomeLevelsandEconomicGrowth,"
ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,February1960.Haganpointsoutthatcomparisonsbetweendevelopedand
underdevelopedcountriesareinsomerespectsmisleadingandtendtoexaggeratethedisparities.
23.ILOconference,September1968,asreportedby TheNewYorkTimes, September3,1968.Forsomeequallystaggering
populationprojectionsforLatinAmerica,seeLouisOlivos,"2000:ANoSpaceOdyssey," Americas (OAS),August1969.
24. TheUnitedStatesandtheWorldinthe1985Era, pp.7879.
25.LesterR.Brown,"TheAgriculturalRevolutioninAsia," ForeignAffairs, July1968,p.698,andBrown'saddressbefore
KansasStateUniversity,"ANewErainWorldAgriculture,"December3,1968.For1967data,showingfoodproduction
outstrippingpopulationgrowthintheThirdWorld,see Ceres (FAOReview),SeptemberOctober1968,pp.1718.Fora
morepessimisticassessment,seeMyrdal, TheAsianDrama,NewYork,1968,pp.417,102949.
26.See UnitedNationsYearbookofNationalAccountsStatistics, 1966,Table7B.
27.Myrdal,pp.322,54041,552ff.,1585.Seealso UnitedNationsStatisticalYearbook,1967,fordataonphysiciansper
inhabitantsintheearly1960s(p.696)onnumberofoccupieddwellings,averagesize,densityofoccupation,andgeneral
housingfacilities(Table202,p.708ff.)andoncaloriesperday,proteins,andindustrialconsumptionofcotton,wool,
rubber,steel,tinandfertilizerintheyears19551965,coveringgeneralconsumption(pp.498511).
28.Foradiscussionofsomepertinentexamples, see TwentyThirdReportbytheCommitteeonGovernmentOperations,
HouseofRepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,March1968,hereinaftercitedasReport....Also Hearingbeforea
SubcommitteeonGovernmentOperations,HouseofRepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,January23,1968,hereinaftercited
asHearing....

117
29.JosephLelyveld,"India'sStudentsDemandASafeJobintheEstablishment," TheNewYorkTimesMagazine, May
12,1968,pp.53,58foranequallydamningjudgment,seealsoMyrdal,pp.178490.
30.Myrdal,pp.1645,1649.
31.RaulPrebisch,"TheSystemandtheSocialStructureofLatinAmerica,"inLatinAmericanRadicalism,IrvingLouis
Horowitz,JosuedeCastro,andJohnGerassi,eds.,NewYork,1969,p.31.
32. Report ...,pp. 78.
33. Hearing... ,p.96.
34. Report ...,p.17.
35. Report ...,p.9,quotingthetestimonyofDr.C.V.Kidd,headofthePhysicsDepartmentoftheAmericanUniversity
inBeirut.
36.WilliamKornhauser, ThePoliticsofMassSociety, Glencoe,111.,
1959.
37.H.Jaguaribe,"ForeignTechnicalAssistanceandNationalDevelopment,"papersubmittedatPrinceton,1965,pp.2526,
ascitedin Hearing ....p.57seealsoIrvingLouisHorowitz,"PoliticalLegitimacyandtheInstitutionalizationofCrisesin
LatinAmerica," ComparativePoliticalStudies, April1968,especiallypp.6465.
38.See,forexample,WilliamH.GrierandPriceM.Cobbs,BlackRage, NewYork,1969.
39.Myrdal,p.471seealsopp.46769forurbangrowthdatacomparedwithnationalgrowthforfullerdataonthegrowth
ofcitiesin
theThirdWorld,seeG.Breese, UrbanizationinNewlyDevelopingCountries,EnglewoodCliffs,N.J.,1966.
40.SamuelP.Huntington, PoliticalOrderinChangingSocieties, NewHavenandLondon,1968,p.290,citingalsoBertF.
HoselitzandMyronWeiner,"EconomicDevelopmentandPoliticalStabilityinIndia," Dissent,Vol.8,Spring1961,p.177,
andBenjaminB.RingerandDavidL.Sills,"PoliticalExtremistsinIran," PublicOpinion Quarterly,Vol.16,19521953,pp.
69394.
41.Myrdal,p.117.
42.Forausefulandpertinentdiscussionoftherelationshipofviolenceandeconomicdevelopment,seeBruceM.Russettet
al., WorldHandbookofPoliticalandSocialIndicators, NewHaven,1964,especiallypp.304310andJohnH.Kautsky,
CommunismandthePoliticsofDevelopment,NewYork,1968,especiallychap.10,"CommunismandEconomic
Development,"coauthoredwithRogerW.Benjamin.Forasomewhatdifferentbreakdownofsocieties,seeCyrilE.Black,
TheDynamicsofModernization, NewYork,1966,p.150.Foramuchmoreoptimisticprognostication,seeWaltRostow,
TheStagesofEconomicGrowth, Cambridge,Mass.,1960,p.127.
43.Myrdal,p.300.
44.A.Barber,"The20thCenturyRenaissance,"privatepaper,InstituteofPoliticsandPlanning,Washington,D.C.,1968,
pp.1,8.
45.InFriedrichEngels, HerrEugenDuhring'sRevolutionandScience,ascitedbyD.G.Brennan,"Weaponry,"in Toward
theYear2018, NewYork,1968,p.2.
46.SeeBrennan, ibid., p.19.ThispossibilityisdevelopedfurtherbyM.W.Thringinhisessay"RobotsontheMarch,"in
UnlessPeaceComes,NigelCalder,ed.,London,1968,pp.15564.
47.GordonJ.F.MacDonald,"HowtoWrecktheEnvironment,"inUnlessPeaceComes, p.181.
48.VictorC.Ferkiss, TechnologicalMan:TheMythandtheReality, NewYork,1969,p.199MichaelHarrington,
AmericanPowerintheTwentiethCentury, NewYork,1967,pp.39,43,48alsotheeloquentpleabyAurelioPecceiof
OlivettiCorporation,"ConsiderationsandtheNeedforWorldwidePlanning,"deliveredinAkademgorodok,USSR,
September12,1967(mimeograph).

II:TheAgeofVolatileBelief
1.PierreTeilharddeChardin,ThePhenomenonofMan,NewYork,1961,p.183.
2.SeeClaudeLeviStrauss, TheSavageMind,Chicago,1966.
3.Inthisconnection,seeJacquesSoustelle, LesQuatreSoleils,Paris,1967.Inlivelyterms,Soustelleattacksthe
progressivetheoryofhistoryasexpressedbyMarx,Spengler,Toynbee,andTeilharddeChardin.
Foramorecomplexanalysis,seeMichelFoucault,Folieetderaison, Paris,1961Americanedition, Madnessand
Civilization,NewYork,
1965.
4.TeilharddeChardin,pp.17879.
5.See,forexample,JulesMonnerot, SociologyandPsychologyofCommunism, Boston,1960.
6.Inthisconnection,interestingdataareprovidedbyJacquesToussaert, LeSentimentreligieuxenFlandrealafindu
Moyenage, Paris,
1963.
7."ThewriterknowsofnoinstanceinpresentdaySouthAsiawhere
religionhasinducedsocialchange"(Myrdal,p.103).SeealsoTeilharddeChardin,pp.20911,foradiscussionofthe
passivityoforientalreligions,andKavalamM.Panikkar, HinduSocietyatCrossRoads, Bombay,1955.
8.Kh.Momjan, TheDynamicTwentiethCentury, Moscow,1968,p.
21.
9.TeilharddeChardin,p.257.
10. Ibid., p.211.
11.Rostow, TheStagesofEconomicGrowth, pp.16263 seealso p.158,whereMarxismisdescribedas"asystemfullof
flawsbutfullalsooflegitimatepartialinsights,agreatformalcontributiontosocialscience,amonstrousguidetopublic
policy."
12.JacquesEllul, TheTechnologicalSociety, NewYork,1965,p.
290.
13.KarlMarx,writingin1871,ascitedbyLewisS.Feuer,"KarlMarxandthePrometheanComplex," Encounter,
December1968,p.

118
14.ThesetermswereusedbyJamesH.Billington,"ForceandCounterforceinEasternEurope," ForeignAffairs, October
1968,p.34.
15.DanielandGabrielCohnBendit, LeGauchisme,remedealamaladiesenileducommunisme, Paris,1968.
16.LeszekKolakowski,"ThePermanentandTransitoryMeaningofMarxism," NowaKultura, No.4,1957.
17. Praxis, MayJune1967,p.431.
18.Kolakowski,"HopeandtheFabricofHistory," NowaKultura, No.38,1957.Fora recentandveryperceptiveanalysis
ofKolakowski'sthought,seeLeopoldLabedz,"KolakowskionMarxismandBeyond," Encounter, March1969,pp.7788.
19.SeeAdamSchaff, MarxsizmaJednostkaLudzka,Warsaw,1965,p.56,andp.28ff.,whereSchaffacknowledgeshis
debttoProfessorErichFrommforhisimprovedunderstandingofMarxism.SchaffwasexpelledfromtheCentralCommittee
ofthePolishCommunistParty
in1968.
20.Thisresultmakesitalsoreminiscentoffascism.Seemy"DemocraticSocialismorSocialFascism?" Dissent,Summer
1965.Seealsothenextchapterforfurtherdiscussion.
21.OntheproblemofauthorityandlegitimacyincontemporaryCatholicism,seeGeorgeN.Shuster,ed., Freedomand
AuthorityintheWest, NotreDame,1967,especiallythecontributionofthelateJohnCourtneyMurray,S.J.
22.MigueldeUnamuno, TheTragicSenseofLife, NewYork,1954,P.77.
23.LettertoCardinalKonig,ArchbishopofVienna,January14,1969.
24.Foranaccountgenerallysympatheticto theconservativepointofview,seeUlisseFloridi,S.J.,RadicalismoCattolico
Brasiliano, Rome,1968.Foramoregeneralaccount,ErnstHalperin, NationalismandCommunisminChile, Cambridge,
Mass.,1965andWilliamV.D'AntoniaandFrederickB.Pike,Religion,RevolutionandReform, NewYork,1964.
25.ThesetwowordsarethetitleofGaraudy'sbookDel'anathemeaudialogue, Paris,1965,discussingtheChristian
Marxistdialogue.
26.Ascitedbythe WashingtonPost, January7,1969.
27.Forasimilarpointofview,seeEmilePin,S.J.,"LesMotivationsdesconduitesreligieusesetlepassaged'unecivilisation
pretechniqueaunecivilisationtechnique," SocialChange,Vol.13,1966.
28.SeeHarveyCox,TheSecularCity, NewYork,1965.
29. Ibid., p.69.
30.PierreTrotignoninL'Arc, Paris,No.3,19661968,ascitedbyRaymondAron,"AttheBarricades," Encounter,August
1968,p.23.
31.AbbieHoffman,RevolutionfortheHellofIt, NewYork,1968.Thebestanalysisoftheideologyofthe"student
revolution"isthearticlebyLeopoldLabedz,"StudentsandRevolution," Survey (London),July1968.
32.AscitedbyN.Molchanov,"StudentsRebelintheWest:TheMeaning,theCausesandGoals," LiteraturnayaGazeta,
November6, 1968.
33.PaulJacobsandSaulLandau, TheNewRadicals,NewYork,1966,p.7.
34.Speakingin1967attheFreeUniversityinWestBerlin,ascitedbyLabedz,"StudentsandRevolution,"p.6.
35. Ibid., p.7.
36.Molchanov.
37.SeeRobertP.Wolff,BarringtonMoore,Jr.,andHerbertMarcuse,ACritiqueofPureTolerance, Boston,1965.
38.Compare,forexample,thedemandsoftheWarsawstudents,adoptedinMarch1968,withthedemandsoftheMexican
studentsofSeptemberofthesameyear(Survey, July1968,p.114 TheNewYorkTimes, March28andSeptember9,1968).
39.ThispointiswellmadebyProfessorZ.Bauman,awellknownWarsawsociologistexpelledfromPolandin1968after
thestudentoutbreakofMarch,inhisintroductiontoaspecialdocumentaryvolumeon
thoseevents,publishedinParisbyInstytutLiteracki, WydarzeniaMarcowe1968, 1969.
40.SeeMelvinLasky,"RevolutionDiary," Encounter, August1968,pp.8889.
41. TheNewLeft,memorandumpreparedfortheCommitteeontheJudiciary,UnitedStatesSenate,Washington,D.C.,
1968,p.23,citingalsodatafromJackNewfield,A PropheticMinority,NewYork,1966.
42."TheHooligansofPeaceSquare," ScinteiaTineretului, July5,1968.
43.Black, TheDynamicsofModernization, p.31.
44.Onthis,seealsoKennethKeniston,"SocialChangeandYouthinAmerica,"in TheChallengeofYouth, ErikH.Erikson,
ed.,NewYork,1961.
45.SeeJohanHuizinga,WaningoftheMiddleAges, especiallychap.1on"TheViolentTenorofLife,"NewYork,1954.
46.SeeBlack,TheDynamicsofModernization,fordescriptiveandsequentialanalysis.
47.Onthis,forUnitedStatesexamplesseeMarkGerzon, TheWholeWorldIsWatching, NewYork,1969,pp.5254,73,
18990foramoresystematic treatmentpertainingtotheThirdWorld,seeDonaldK.Emmerson, StudentsandPoliticsin
DevelopingNations,NewYork,1968,includingasimilarconclusiononp.414.
48.MarshallMcLuhan, TheMarshallMcLuhanDewLine, No.1,1968,p.15.
49.SeePaulSigmund,ed., TheIdeologiesoftheDevelopingNations, NewYork,1963,especiallypp.1217.Fora
systematicevaluationoftheappealandmeaningoftheconceptofequalitywithinonenewnation,seeJamesC.Scott,
PoliticalIdeologyinMalaysia:RealityandtheBeliefsofanElite, NewHaven,1968,pp.19496.Formoregeneral
treatment,DavidApter,ed., IdeologyandDiscontent, Glencoe,Ill.,1964andCliffordGeertz,ed.,OldSocietiesandNew
States:TheQuestforModernityinAsiaandAfrica, NewYork,1963.
50.Forexample,seeLeopoldSenghor, AfricanSocialism,NewYork,1963.
51.TomMboya,FreedomandAfter, Boston,1963,p.262.
52.ItisamongthemthatFrantzFanon'sTheWretchedoftheEarth(NewYork,1965)hasthewidestappeal.SeealsoF.J.
Marsal,"LatinAmericanIntellectualsandtheProblemofChange," SocialResearch, Winter1966,pp.56292.
53.Theyhavethusbecome"tutelarydemocracies."Cf.EdwardShils, PoliticalDevelopmentintheNewStates, TheHague,
1965,pp.6067.
54.SeethehighlystimulatingreviewofMichelFoucault'sbook,LesMotsetleschoses (Paris,1966),byJeanMarie
Domenague,TemoignageChretien, March1968.
55.VictorC.Ferkiss,p.241.

119
Ill:Communism:TheProblemofRelevance
1.For insightsintoStalin'scharacter,seeMilovanDjilas,ConversationswithStalin, NewYork,1962andSvetlana
Alliluyeva,TwentyLetterstoaFriend,NewYork,1967.
2.SeeLeonardSchapiro, TheOriginofCommunistAutocracy,London,1956andIsaacDeutscher, TheProphetOutcast,
London,1963.
3.LeonSmolinski,"GrinevetskiiandSovietIndustrialization," Survey, April1968,p.101.Seealsothecriticalcommentby
AlecNoveonSmolinski'sanalysisandSmolinski'sreplyinSurvey, WinterSpring,1969.
4.Smolinski,p.109.
5.Deutscher,pp.100115.
6.Rostow,p.66.
7.Rostow,p.95.Seealsopp.9697fordetailedtablesbyWarrenNutter,inwhichthepersistentlagincertainareasof
RussianindustrialproductioniscomparedwithAmericanproduction.
8.Black,"SovietSociety:AComparativeView,"in ProspectsforSovietSociety, pp.4243.
9.Black,pp.4042,providesausefulsummaryoftheirfindingsandthebasisforreachingtheconclusions.
10.Seethefascinatingcumulative table,inStefanKurowski, HistorycznyProcesWzrostuGospodarczego,Warsaw,1963,
p.335.
11.See TryhunaLudu, July8,1963,and NoweDrogi,No.8,1963.
12.SpeechofNovember19,1962.
13.N.Sviridov,"PartyConcernfortheUpbringingoftheScientificTechnicalIntelligentsia," Kommunist,No.18,p.38.
14.P.Demichev,"TheConstructionofCommunismandtheGoalsofSocialSciences," Kommunist, No.10,p.26.
15.E.G.R.KosolapovandP.Simush,"TheIntelligentsiainSocialistSociety," Pravda, May25,1968.
16.D.I.Chesnokov,"AggravationoftheIdeologicalandandPoliticalStruggleandContemporaryPhilosophical
Revisionism," VoprosyFilosofii,No.12.ThisimportantarticlediscussesthegeneralstateofcontemporaryMarxismaswell
asthesignificanceofcontemporaryrevisionism.
17.D.I.Chesnokov,"CurrentProblemsofHistoricalMaterialism," Kommunist, No.6,1968,p.48.SeealsoG.Smirnov,
"SocialistHumanism," Pravda,December16,1968.
18.G.Khromushin,"SharpeningofWorldIdeologicalStruggle," InternationalAffairs (Moscow),No.12,1968.
19.T.Timofeyev,"TheLeadingRevolutionaryForce," Pravda, December24,1968.TimofeyevisthedirectoroftheUSSR
AcademyofSciencesInstituteoftheInternationalWorkingClassMovementandacorrespondingmemberoftheUSSR
AcademyofSciences.
20. Pravda, April11,1968.
21.S.Kovalev,"On'Peaceful'andNonPeacefulCounterrevolution," Pravda, September11,1968.
22.AusefulsourceonSoviet"futurology"isthereportbyaSovietscholar,I.BestuzhevLada,"LesEtudessurl'aveniren
URSS," AnalyseetPrevision (Futuribles),No.5,1968.
23.See,forexample,A.D.Smirnov,"Socialism,theScientificTechnologicalRevolutionandLongRangeForecasting,"
VoprosyFilosofii, No.9,1968I.G.Kurakov,"ForecastingScientificTechnologicalProgress"andM.K.Petrov,"Some
ProblemsoftheOrganizationofKnowledgeintheEpochoftheScientificTechnologicalRevolution," VoprosyFilosofii, No.
10,1968andV.G.Afanasev, NauchnoeUpravlenieObshchestvom, Moscow,1968.
24."ADiscussion:TheProblemsoftheUnityoftheCommunistMovement," ZolnierzWolnosci, January21,1969
particularlythecontributionsbyS.TrampczynskiJ.Urban,"HandsClosetoPulse," Polityka, June9,1969.
25.V.RomaninContemporanul, January3,January10,1969(italicshis).Roman,amemberoftheCentralCommitteeand
aformerministerintheRumaniangovernment,isaprofessorandengineerbytraining.Heistheauthorof severalbookson
thescientifictechnicalrevolution.
26.Cheprakov,Izvestia,August18,1968.
27.SeeC.FreemanandA.Young,TheResearchandDevelopmentEffortinWesternEurope,NorthAmericaandtheSoviet
Union, OECD,p.33alsotheexhaustivestudy SciencePolicyintheUSSR, OECD,1969.
28.Forotherexamples,see SciencePolicyintheUSSR, p.95.
29. Izvestia, October28,1968.
30.AcademicianP.L.Kapitsa,KomsomolskaiaPravda, January19,1968.
31. ProblemsofCommunism, JulyAugustandSeptemberOctober1968.SeealsoV.Chornovil, TheChornovilPapers,
NewYork,1968.
32.TextpublishedinTheNewYorkTimes, July22,1968.(Citationsinthetextarefromthisversion.)
33. VestnikAkademiiNauk,No.3,1966,p.138.
34. V.Roman,"ForaMarxistTheoryoftheTechnicalScientificRevolution," Contemporanul.
35.WalterUlbricht,"TheSignificanceandVitalForceoftheTeachingsofKarlMarxforOurEra,"pamphlet,Berlin,May
2,1968.
36.SeePeterC.Ludz, ParteieliteimWandel, Cologne,1968.
37.See,forexample,thewarningbyP.Demichev,"TheConstructionofCommunismandtheGoalsofSocialSciences,"
Kommunist,No.10,1968,p.26.Foraprovocativediscussionofthetrendtowardgreaterfusionofpartybureaucratic
experiencewithtechnicalcom
petence,seeGeorgeFischer, TheSovietSystemandModernSociety,NewYork,1968.
38.Foranexcellentgeneralsurvey,seeRichardLowenthal,WorldCommunism:TheDisintegrationofaSecularFaith,
NewYork,1966.
39.SeeinthisconnectiontheperceptiveessaybyHenryL.Roberts,"RussiaandtheWest:AComparisonandContrast,"
TheSlavicReview,March1964.
40.Seethestatementin Kommunist,No.15,1963,especiallyp.26,whichattackstheChineseconceptofanabsoluteline
fortheinternationalmovement,andtheletteroftheSovietleadershipofJuly1963totheChineseleaders,explicitlyrejecting
theconceptofagenerallinefortheinternationalmovement.Thisperiodhasbeenanalyzedbymeinmy TheSovietBloc:
UnityandConflict, rev.ed.,Cambridge,Mass.,1967.

120
41.RogerGaraudy,Pourunmodelefrancaisdusocialisme,Paris,1968,pp.14849.
42.D.Susnjic, KnjizevneNovine, March2,1968.ForusefulsummariesofYugoslavviewsconcerningamultipartysystem,
seealsotheRFEresearchpapersofOctober6,1967,andMay21,1968,bothofwhichsummarizetheevolutionofYugoslav
thinkingonthesubject.
43.FordataonthegrowthoftheCzechoslovakintelligentsiaandforadiscussionofitsimplications,seeZ.Valenta,"The
WorkingClassandtheIntelligentsia," NovaMysl, February1968.
44.SeetheverythoughtfuldiscussionbyA.Hegedus,"OntheAlternativesofSocialDevelopment,"and"Realityand
Necessity," Kortars, June,July1967.Foraconservativeresponsetotheabove,seeP.Varkonyi,"TheDevelopmentand
ProblemsoftheSocialistSociety," Kortars, November1968.Eventhemoreconservativeresponsedidconcedethe
desirabilityofsuchdiscussion,whichwentmuchfurtherthananythingrecentlypublishedineithertheSovietUnionorthe
othermoreconservativeCommuniststates.
45.SeeinthisconnectiontherevealingpolemicsbetweentheSovietsandtheChineseonthesubjectoftherevolutionary
roleoftheAmericanNegro:R.A.Remington,"RevolutionaryRoleoftheAfroAmerican:AnAnalysisofSinoSoviet
PolemicsontheHistoricalImportanceoftheAmericanNegro,"CenterforInternationalStudies,M.I.T.,October1968.
46.TangTsou,"TheCulturalRevolutionandtheChinesePoliticalSystem," TheChinaQuarterly, AprilJune,1969.
47.AlexanderEckstein, CommunistChina'sEconomicGrowthandForeignTrade,NewYork,1966.
48.O.E.Clubb, TwentiethCenturyChina,NewYork,1964,pp.41324.SeealsoPingti HoandTangTsou,eds., Chinain
Crisis, Chicago,1967andforamoregeneraldiscussion,J.K.Fairbank, TheChineseWorldOrder, Cambridge,Mass.,1968.
49.JohnH.Kautsky,p.187.

IV:TheAmericanTransition
1.See,forexample,RonaldSegal'sAmerica'sRecedingFuture, NewYork,1968orGioseRimanelli,TragicaAmerica,
Genoa,1968.
2.AhighlyinformativeaccountiscontainedinthefullpagearticlebyHenryLieberman,"Technology:AlchemistofRoute
128," TheNewYorkTimes, January8,1968.
3.AnexcellentandwelldocumentedsummarycanbefoundinTheAdvancingSouth:ManpowerProspectsandProblems,
NewYork,1968.
4.DanielBell,"TheMeasurementofKnowledgeandTechnology,"in IndicatorsofSocialChange,EleanorSheldonand
WilbertMoore,eds.,NewYork,1968,p.149.
5.NotablyBell,abovealsothemoregeneral,lessdocumentedreflectionsinthefourthannualreportofHarvardUniversity,
ProgramonTechnologyandSociety andVictorFerkiss, TechnologicalMan:TheMythand theReality.Foranextremely
usefulsummaryofpresenttrendsinAmerica,seeTowardaSocialReport,DepartmentofHealth,EducationandWelfare,
Washington,D.C.,1969.Forarevealingandinplacesmovingaccountoftheimpactofallthisonsomeof theyoung,see
MarkGerzon,TheWholeWorldIsWatching.
6. TelevisionQuarterly, Spring1968,p.9.
7.Forafullerdiscussion,seeNASA:TheTechnologyUtilizationProgram, 1967,p.10andeditorialin SaturdayReview,
April19,1969.
8.SeeAnthonyG.OettingerandSemaMarks,"EducationalTechnology:NewMythsandOldRealities"(discussionand
reply),TheHarvardEducationalReview,Fall1968.
9.Ascitedby ReturntoResponsibility, areportbytheThomasJeffersonResearchCenter,Pasadena,1969,p.5.
10.Bell,p.175.
11. TowardaSocialReport, p.43.
12. Ibid., p.42.
13.BureauoftheCensusreport,citedby TheNewYorkTimes,August20,1969.
14. ReportoftheNationalAdvisoryCommissiononCivilDisorders, Washington,D.C.,1968,p.337.Abreakdownofthe
distributionofthepooriscontainedinthereportofthePresident'sCommissiononIncomeMaintenancePrograms,released
onNovember12,1969seealso JointReport oftheCommerceandLaborDepartmentscitedby TheNewYorkTimes,
February2,1970.
15.BureauoftheCensusreportNathanGlazer,"TheNegroes'StakeinAmerica'sFuture," TheNewYorkTimesMagazine,
September22,1968,p.31 TheEconomist, May10,1969,p.51.
16. TheNewYorkTimes, May11,1969.Itshould,however,benotedthatin1949,59percentoftheblacksexpressed
satisfactionwith
theirhousing.Thispresumablyindicateshigherexpectationsin1969.Onhousing,see JointReport (note14,above).
17."CharacteristicsofStudentsand TheirColleges,"astudybytheBureauoftheCensus,ascitedin TheNewYorkTimes,
June15,1969.
18.Glazer,pp.31,90seealso JointReport.
19. TheEconomist, p.51.
20. TowardaSocialReport, pp.1527 Time, October31,1969,p.42.
21. Butforaratherpessimisticprojectionandassessment,see"America'sFrustratedSouth," TheEconomist, June14,1969.
22.Seethespecialreport"BlackAmerica," Newsweek,June30,1969,p.23.Forabroaderanalysis,seeThePoliticsof
Protest (TheSkolnickReporttotheNationalCommissionontheCausesandPreventionofViolence),NewYork,1968,
especiallychap.4,"BlackMilitancy."
23.GloriaSteinem,"LinkbetweentheNewPoliticsandtheOld," SaturdayReview,August2,1969,p.19.
24.Forausefuldiscussionofthefragmentationofpoliticalcultureindemocracy,seeArendLijphart,"Typologiesof
DemocraticSystems," ComparativePoliticalStudies, April1968.
25.GusTyler,ThePoliticalImperative, NewYork,1968.
26.Forstrikinglyconflictingassessmentsoftheimpactofthatexpansion,seeEmmanuelMesthene,"HowTechnologyWill
ShapetheFuture" (Science, July12,1968),whoarguesstronglythattheroleofgovernmentisenhancedandFerkiss,pp.
14647,whoarguesquitethecontrarypointofview.Forabroadgaugedandstimulatingdiscussion,seePeterDrucker, The
AgeofDiscontinuity, NewYork,1969.

121
27.FromtheintroductiontoEllul, TheTechnologicalSociety, byRobertK.Merton,p.vi.
28.Seeourearlierdiscussion,PartIV,p.201.
29.DonaldN.Michael, TheNextGeneration, NewYork,1965,p.16.
30.RobertS.Liebert,"TowardsaConceptualModelofRadicalandMilitantYouth:AStudyofColumbiaUndergraduates,"
presentationtotheAssociationforPsychoanalyticMedicine,April1,1961,p.28.
31.KennethKeniston,"YouHavetoGrowUpinScarsdaletoKnowHowBadThingsReallyAre," TheNewYorkTimes
Magazine,April27,1969,p.128.Theforegoingreflectsthe argumentofhislargerbook,YoungRadicals:Noteson
CommittedYouth, NewYork,1968.
32.Gerzon,p.26.
33. Ibid., pp.5253,73,185,190.
34.Michael, TheNextGeneration,p.41seealsoRobertA.Nisbett,"TwilightofAuthority," ThePublicInterest, Spring
1969.
35.TestimonyofDr.BrunoBettelheim,professorofpsychologyandpsychiatry,UniversityofChicago,totheHouse
SpecialSubcommitteeonEducation,March20,1969.
36.SeetheargumentdevelopedbyEdgarC.Friedenberg,"TheHiddenCostsofOpportunity," AtlanticMonthly,February
1969,pp.8490.
37.SeeT.B.Bottomore,CriticsofSociety:RadicalThoughtinNorthAmerica,NewYork,1968.
38.SeeDanielBell,"CharlesFourier:ProphetofEupsychia," TheAmericanScholar,Winter196869.
39.Friedenberg,p.89.
40.WilliamKornhauser, ThePoliticsofMassSociety.
41.Forsomeperceptivecomments,seeAndrewKnight,"America'sFrozenLiberals," TheProgressive, February1969.
42.Foradiscussionofthepositionofthe liberalintheacademicworld,seeIrvingLouisHorowitz,"YoungRadicalsand
theProfessorialCritics," Commonweal, January31,1969,pp.55256.
43.Foragooddiscussion,seeparticularlyp.54ofthespecialissueof TheEconomist, May10,1969.
44. FromalecturebyProfessorJosephBlau,AspenInstituteofHumanisticStudies,January1969.
45.QuitesymptomaticisthetitleoftherecentbookbyArthurSchlesinger,Jr., TheCrisisofConfidence, Boston,1969.
46.AgoodaccountofrightandleftextremistgroupsisinGeorgeThayer,TheFartherShoresofPolitics,NewYork,1967.
47.Fortheoutlinesoftheneededeffort,seethe Report...onCivilDisorders, especiallypp.22526.

V:AmericaandtheWorld
1.Forsomecomparativedata, see TowardaSocialReport, pp.8182.
2.StrongovertonesofthisviewaretobefoundinJohnMcDermott's"IntellectualsandTechnology," TheNewYorkReview
ofBooks, July31,1969itisevenmorestronglyarguedinTheodoreRoszak, TheMakingofa CounterCulture, NewYork,
1969.
3.SeeparticularlyKonradLorenz,OnAggression, NewYork,1966alsoN.Tinbergen,"OnWarandPeaceinAnimalsand
Man," Science, June28,1968.
4.Foracriticismoftheradicalattacksontheindustrialmilitarycomplex,seeStanleyHoffmann,Gulliver'sTroubles, p.
149.
5.SeeFrankS.Hopkins,"AmericanEducationalSystemsfortheLessDevelopedCountries,"Washington,D.C.,1967
(mimeograph),andhisproposalforanEducationalDevelopmentAdministration.
6.IrvingLouisHorowitzetal., LatinAmericanRadicalism. StudentpartisanshipinLatinAmericaiswellcoveredin
chapters811inDonaldK.Emmerson, StudentsandPoliticsinDevelopingNations.
7. SeeClaudioVeliz,"CentralismandNationalisminLatinAmerica,"ForeignAffairs, October1968.
8.Seemyarticle,"PeaceandPower,"Encounter, November1968.
9.ForastimulatinginterpretationofRussianhistoryandofits"lag"visavistheWest,seeHughSetonWatson,TheRussianEmpire,
18011917, Oxford,1967,especiallypp.72842.
10.IshareinthisrespecttheconclusionsreachedbyTheodoreDraperinhis"WorldPolitics:ANewEra?" Encounter, August1968,p.12.
11.Seemyarticle,"MeetingMoscow's'LimitedCoexistence,'"TheNewLeader, December16,1968.
12.Montreal Star,September9,1969.
13.Forafullerdiscussion,seemy"GlobalPoliticalPlanning,"PublicInterest, Winter1969.
14.Seeonthisthepublicopinionpollsanalyzedin PeaceResearchinJapan, Tokyo,1968,pp.2571.TheypointtorisingJapaneseex
pectationsofnuclearproliferation.
15.SeeinthisconnectionthespeechbyLeonardMarks,directorofUSIA,"ABlueprintforaNewSchoolhouse,"November8,1967.
16.FordetailedcalculationsofthelikelyfinancialshareofcontributorsotherthantheUnitedStates,see TheEconomist,August9,1969,p.
13.
17.Forafullerelaborationoftheseproposals,seemy"TheFrameworkforEastWestReconciliation,"ForeignAffairs, January1968.
18.SeetherevealinganalysisofforeignattitudestowardtheUnitedStatesinthepollscitedby TheFutureofU.S.PublicDiplomacy, report
bytheSubcommitteeonForeignAffairsoftheHouseofRepresentatives,Washington,D.C.,December22,1968,especiallypp.1518.
19.ArthurSchlesinger,Jr., AThousandDays, Boston,1965,p.559.

122
Index
AgeofDiscontinuity,122 104
Agnew,96 AmericanRevolution,3,33,78
agriculturalrevolution,20 Americanization,18,27
AgriculturalRevolution,117 anarchism,42,94
Albania,74 Argentina,14
Algeria,14,16,17,21 Aron,119
AmericaintheTechnetronicAge,5,117 Drucker,121
AmericanChallenge,18 LawrenceAppley,79
Americanrevolution,33,78,85,86,90,91,92,98,

123