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Zoom in on the steep portion of the curve by use of the magnifying glass icon and select
on the plot by drawing a box around the section of
interest. Curve steepness hides many details on the logarithmic scale to produce Figure 2.
(This is where many people make their first error!!they dont zoom in on the
upper reaches of the steep section of the curve so they can see the hidden details!)
Figure 2: Zoom On Step Section Of The Curve
The steep portion of the curve shows three distinct zones of roughly parallel features with
a few data points as transition between the zoneswhat causes the stair steps?
Under the mixture/process reliability icon, fit the demonstrated production line to the
upper right hand reaches of the plot in Figure 2. Use the production line/plot point fit
menu. Draw a box around the upper data from 8.5% toward the right hand
corner. Figure 3 shows the results where eta value is a key performance indicator for
process capability. Eta provides a single point estimate for demonstrated output.
Figure 6: Gap Analysis Between Data Points And Both Trend Lines
Total Production = 868,199.1 (Metric Tons)
Production Line = Eta 2,775.538, Beta 16.76324
Nameplate Line = Eta 2,880.606, Beta 27
Hidden factory losses = 116,126 + 48,859 = 164, 985 MT/year. The hidden factory
losses represent 164,985/2775 = 59 days of normal output
70.4% of the losses are between the demonstrated line and the data points, and
29.6% of the losses are between the demonstrated line and the nameplate line
Further investigation is required to understand why stair steps exist in Figure 3 and
5. We need to know: are the loss gaps are due to things that fail or are due to grade
differences? Investigate this question by converting the data to Probit-3 format and
introducing different symbols for grades by putting each grade into a different dataset.
Probit-3 data format requires three distinct data entries: 1) the X-axis scale value (in this
case daily output), 2) The cumulative quantity occurred in % format (this
is Benards median rank shown in % format), and the total quantity of data points
used. For example the data will have the format 6.6*2.59*10 which would represent 6.6
the X-axis value, 2.59 represents the % Y-axis value, and 10 represents a data set of 10
data points. The Excel spreadsheet mentioned above contains the calculation for the 366
data points used for this analysis. By separating the data into grades of product produced,
each data set will maintain its proper X-axis value and the proper Y-axis value when the
method icon is used and the data format selected by use of the Probit icon for Probit-
3 methodology.
The data for Probit-3 is performed in four steps to avoid confusion and errors.
First, the probability plot position is computed using Bernards median rank equation
(i-0.3)/(N+04) which is described in C. R. Misches paper on A Distribution-Independent
Plotting Rule for Ordered Failures, 1979. The i value is the plot position number for
ranked data going from smallest
data value to largest and N is the total number of data points in the set.
Second, the data is collected in columns along with the product grade produced.
Third, the collected data is copied and pasted as special values to other columns so it ca
n be sorted accurately.
Fourth, the data is concatenated so it can be imported into WinSMITH Weibull in
column form for each grade.
Probit-3 data from the spreadsheet is copied and pasted into WinSMITH Weibull. Under
the magnifying glass icon, the fit lines are hidden, and under the point symbol type the
quantity is hidden. The probability plot is shown in Figure 7 with each
symbol highlighting a grade.
Figure 10: Gap Analysis Between Data Points And Both Trend Lines Restated
Total Production = 868,199.1 (Metric Tons)
Production Line = Eta 2,775.538, Beta 16.76324
Nameplate Line = Eta 2,880.606, Beta 27
Removing the grade production rates shows the Reliability Losses are:
116,126 (25,897+35,759) = 54,470 MT/year
Efficiency + Utilization (Production - Nameplate):
Loss = 48,859 (Metric Tons)
Hidden factory losses = 54,470 + 48,859 = 103,329 MT/year. The hidden factory
losses represent 103,329/2775 = 37 days of normal output
Based on the recognition of slower grades in production the losses are restated:
52.7% of the losses are between the demonstrated line and the data points, and
47.3% of the losses are between the demonstrated line and the nameplate line
Figure 10 shows the losses are about the same magnitude between reliability issues and
efficiency/utilization issues with almost half of the reliability losses associated with
downtime issues. Putting all the losses on one graph is shown in Figure 11. The graph
was captured as a soft copy in WinSMITH Weibull and pasted as a bitmap file
into Powerpoint. The colored zones were drawn by turning off the grid under the
drawing features. Also using the drawing features, the Autoshape/Lines/Freeform feature
was used. Simply click on where the freeform should start and remove your finger from
the mouse and pull the mouse pointed to where the line ends and click again with
repetition of the process to close the freeform. The colored zones of the freeform were
formatted for a transparency value of 50% so you can see through the colored zone to
find the symbols.
Figure 11: All Losses Shown On One Sheet With Grade Considerations
Of course reducing downtime for the process to reduce reliability losses is an important
no-brainer issue. Increasing the predictability of process output by eliminating problems
restricting output will increase slope of the trend lines. Variability in output reduction is
an important issue to reduce losses and make the payroll of the plant more
consistent. The low reliability is driven by the small amount of product A produced.
Perhaps technology improvements can be implemented to reduce the apparent losses
from grade changes.
None of these problems cure themselves. Youve got to make a change to get a
change! Fix the problems and generate wealth for the corporation!
Production Output/Problems
Six Sigma
Coefficient of Variation
Download a copy of this problem of the month involving process reliability plots
with probit analysis by clicking here.
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