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The use of ecological models to assess indicators in support of the

EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Chiara Piroddi
Brussels, 20-21 January 2016
Background

* EU FP7 project Ocean of Tomorrow: DEVelopment Of innovative


Tools for understanding marine biodiversity and assessing Good
Environmental Status (DEVOTES)

* Goal: Study marine biodiversity and those components of marine


food-webs and seaoor integrity for the four EU Seas that relate to
impacts of human activities and climate change
Paper aims

* Review the current capabilities of the modelling


community to inform on indicators outlined in the
MSFD with a particular emphasis on biodiversity
(D1), food webs (D4), non-indigenous species (D2)
and seaoor integrity (D6)
* Assess which models are able to demonstrate the
linkages between indicators and ecosystem
structure/function and the impact of pressures on
state and thus indicators
* Report on gaps in model capability and suggest
needs for development

Catalogue Structure

* Model derived indicator (MDI) * Condence/uncertainty
* MDI type: 1. Static; 2. Dynamic or 3. Spatial * Source
dynamic * Model/MDI in relation to MSFD Descriptors
* State or pressure MDI (D1D11)
* MDI target/reference values and unit * Model/MDI correspondence with biodiversity
* MDI status of development: 1. Operational, components (e.g., phytoplankton and sh)
2. Under development; 3. Conceptual * Model/MDI coverage of specic habitat types
* Model name and type and geographical range/scale
* Data requirements * Model/MDI relation to specic pressures

Results: models

* Models:
44 identied
* Models types:
Hydrodynamic-biogeochemical (36%)
End-to-end (18%)
Species distribution/habitat suitability
(14%)
Bio-optical (14%)
Multispecies (14%)
Biogeochemical (2%)
1/7. Biogeochemical and coupled physicalbiogeochemical models; 2 and 3 multispecies
Meta-community (2%) models (either at species or at food web level); 4. species distribution/Habitat Suitability;
5. meta-community models and 6. bio-optical models. E2E models encompass all of
them.

Results: indicators

* Model Derived Indicators
(MDI): MDI Major categories
201 identied Example of MDI
Categories %
* MDI types: 1 Biomass 57

Spatial dynamic (41%) 2 Diversity indicators Trophic level of community 13


3 Physical, hydrological and Phosphate concentration 12
Static (40%) chemical
4 Primary or secondary production 9
Dynamic (19%)
5 Spatial distribution Zooplankton distribution range 6
* MDI status of development 6 Ecological Network Analysis Finns cycle index 2
Operational (64%) 7 Species life-history Species mean length and weight 1

Under-development (33%)
Conceptual (3%)
Results
Models in relation to MSFD descriptors Models/MDI in relation to biodiversity
components
1. Ammonium concentration 19. Phytoplankton distributional range
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 2. Bacteria
D9 D10 D11 20. Phytoplankton functional types (Diatoms, Pico, Nano, Flagellates)
3. Bacteria distributional range 21. Population size:- Mnemioplsis leidyi (biomass)
Biological diversity

4. Biomass and production of zooplankton 22. Population size:- Aurelia aurita ( biomass)

Seafloor integrity

Contaminants in
Non-indigenous

Human induced
Commercial fish

eutrophication
5. Biomass of fodder zooplankton 23. Population size:- Noctiluca scinitillans, (biomass)

Contaminants

Energy/Noise
Hydrological

Marine litter
Model type Food webs 6. Chlorophyll-a concentration 24. Primary production

alteration
species

7. Current 25. Ratio fodder zoo/jelly (biomass)

food
8. Denitrification layer depth (bed) 26. Salinity
Biogeochemical 9. Eastward_sea_water_velocity 27. Sea water salinity
Bio-optical 10. Nitrate concentration 28. Sea water temperature
Meta-community 11. Nutrient concentration variability 29. Sea_surface_height_above_sea_level
Multispecies 12. Oxygen 30. Silicate concentration
Hydrodynamic- biogeochemical 13. Oxygen penetration depth (bed) 31. Suspended sediment concentration
E2E 14. pH 32. Temperature
SDM / Habitat Suitability 15. Phosphate concentration 33. Total benthic oxic respiration
16. Phytoplankton biomass 34. Zoobenthos biomass
No MDI
17. Phytoplankton biomasss:- diatoms 35. Zooplankton functional types (Meso, Micro, Het. Flagellates)
Presence MDI
18. Phytoplankton biomasss:- dinoflagellates 36. Zooplnkton distributional range
High Majority MDI
Results
Models geographical distribution/ # Model capabilities to address pressures
spatial coverage

Conclusions: gaps and development needs

* Strong presence of certain models/areas targeted by DEVOTES partners (e.g., Dynamic Energy Budget models not included)

* Regarding the DEVOTES Biodiversity related descriptors, D2 is the least assessed and D6 lacks indicators on biogenic substrate/seabed
extent

* D8, D9, D10, D11 are not addressed by any models

* Under development models/indicators are still quite numerous

* Not all the models are able to address uncertainty

* Target seiings and/or reference values unclear to model developers

* Of the existing models, urge the need to improve species diversity (e.g., increase or rene species selections in models) , spatial resolutions
of selected species/taxa (e.g., spatial coverage not available or still under development for species/taxa), linkages between pressures and
ecosystem function

* Of the pressures: underwater noise, marine liier, contamination by microbial pathogens and by radionuclides require further development

* Data availability is a constraint


Current project
II
I
Current project III IV

Hindcasting the Mediterranean marine ecosystem


using the software Ecopath with Ecosim and
Ecospace

100+ functional groups, assigned to the 4 MSFD
zones
Time frame 1950 2010
Entire basin at 0.1 dd grid

Piroddi et al. Modelling the Mediterranean marine ecosystem as a whole: addressing the challenge of complexity. 2015. MEPS 533: 47-65
Ecopath for the Med
1. Piscivores cetaceans;
2. Other cetaceans;
3. Pinnipeds;
4. Seabirds;
5. Seaturtles;
6. Large pelagics;
7. Medium pelagics;
8. European pilchard;
9. European anchovy;
10. Other small pelagics;
11. Large demersals;
12. European hake;
13. Medium demersals;
14. Small demersals;
15. Deep sh;
16. Sharks;
17. Rays and skates;
18. Benthopelagic cephalopods;
19. Benthic cephalopods;
20. Bivalves and gastropods;
21. Crustaceans;
22. Jellysh;
23. Benthos;
24. Zooplankton;
25. Phytoplankton;
26. Seagrass;
27. Detritus;
28. Discards
Hindcast: Ecosim

Observed biomass data Drivers

Fish stocks: MEDITS, MEDIAS Reconstructed shing eort (1950-2010;

Pinnipeds: few data points for 1960s, 1970s,1980s and FISHSTAT, GFCM, Sea Around Us
Project)
1990s
Primary production:
Sea turtles from 1985 onwards
- 1960-2010 (GETM-ERGOM, JRC)
Deep sh and benthic inv.: few data point from 1990s
- 1990-2010 (POM-ERSEM, HCMR)
(Wei et al., 2010)

Modelling the historical impact of environmental and sheries drivers on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem: an ecosystem based management approach. In prep

Hindcast: Ecosim
1 W
O_PI.W
P_PI.W

2
A
O_PI.A
P_PI.A

Year
Biomass (tons*km2)

3
I
O_PI.I
P_PI.I

Year

4
O_PI.E
P_PI.E

Year E
5
O_ST
P_ST

Year

6
O_LP
P_LP

Year

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Years
Year
Hindcast: Ecospace
Layers: 1. Depth; 2. Salinity surface and boiom; 3. SST and boiom; 4. Substratum
Constraint: MSFD areas
Fishing eort, PP and trophic interactions
Entire basin at 0.1 dd grid

Modelling the historical impact of environmental and sheries drivers on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem: an ecosystem based management approach. In prep
Environmental responses: Aquamap
Environmental responses: GAM

Temperature and Salinity: European pilchard and European anchovy

Giannoulaki et al 2013. Mediterranean Sensitive Habitats. DG MARE Specic Contract SI2.600741, Final Report, 557 p.
e.g., Whales

Computed habitat capacity Whale abundance and distribution


Using EwE to support MSFD and EU
MSFD descriptors
Biodiversity Strategy
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5

Human ind. eutrophication


Non-indigenous species
00'0" 100'0"E 200'0"E 300'0"E

Biological diversity
Tot Predators/Tot B

Commercial fish
Food webs
.

0.00016
Indicators

0.00014
400'0"N

PrB
Species distribution
Species biomass
Community distribution

0.00012
Community biomass
TL of community
Alien species distribution 300'0"N Top predators/Tot B
High : 0.00016
Alien species biomass

0.00010
Prop. Large predatory fish Low : 0.0001

Prop. Piscivorous 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


Species diversity
Top predators/tot biomass Years
00'0" 100'0"E 200'0"E 300'0"E
500'0"N

.
Ratio invertebrates/fish
12

Species diversity
Keystone index
Phytoplankton biomass
11

PP
Catch/biomass 400'0"N
K

Biomass commercial species


PPR
10

Discards/landings
TL of catch Species diversity
High : 13

MSFD indicators 300'0"N


9

Low : 8

Potential MSFD indicators 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Years
Piroddi
Piroddi et al. An ecosystem- beased approach for the Mediterranean Sea in support of the EU Biodiversity Strategy and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. In preparation
t al. An ecosystem-based approach for the Mediterranean Sea in support of the EU Biodiversity Strategy and the Marine Strategy
Framework Directive. In preparation