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The  use  of  ecological  models  to  assess  indicators  in  support  of  the  

EU  Marine  Strategy  Framework  Directive    

Chiara  Piroddi
Brussels,  20-­‐‑21  January  2016

Background

*  EU  FP7  project  ‘Ocean  of  Tomorrow’:  DEVelopment  Of  innovative  
Tools  for  understanding  marine  biodiversity  and  assessing  Good  
Environmental  Status  (DEVOTES)

*  Goal:  Study  marine  biodiversity  and  those  components  of  marine  
food-­‐‑webs  and  seafloor  integrity  for  the  four  EU  Seas  that  relate  to  
impacts  of  human  activities  and  climate  change

 food  webs  (D4).  non-­‐‑indigenous  species  (D2)   and  seafloor  integrity  (D6) *  Assess  which  models  are  able  to  demonstrate  the   linkages  between  indicators  and  ecosystem   structure/function  and  the  impact  of  pressures  on   state  and  thus  indicators *  Report  on  gaps  in  model  capability  and  suggest   needs  for  development   . Paper  aims *  Review  the  current  capabilities  of  the  modelling   community  to  inform  on  indicators  outlined  in  the   MSFD  with  a  particular  emphasis  on  biodiversity   (D1).

 phytoplankton  and  fish)          2.  Static.g.  2.  Under  development.  3.  Operational.  Conceptual *  Model/MDI  coverage  of  specific  habitat  types   *  Model  name  and  type and  geographical  range/scale   *  Data  requirements   *  Model/MDI  relation  to  specific  pressures .  Dynamic  or  3.   Catalogue  Structure     *  Model  derived  indicator  (MDI) *  Confidence/uncertainty   *  MDI  type:  1.   components  (e.  Spatial   *  Source   dynamic   *  Model/MDI  in  relation  to  MSFD  Descriptors   *  State  or  pressure  MDI          (D1–D11) *  MDI  target/reference  values  and  unit   *  Model/MDI  correspondence  with  biodiversity   *  MDI  status  of  development:    1..

  meta-­‐‑community   models   and   6.  Biogeochemical  and  coupled  physical–biogeochemical  models.   5.   Results:  models     *  Models:   44  identified   *  Models  types:     Hydrodynamic-­‐‑biogeochemical  (36%)   End-­‐‑to-­‐‑end  (18%) Species  distribution/habitat  suitability   (14%) Bio-­‐‑optical  (14%) Multispecies  (14%) Biogeochemical  (2%) 1/7.  2  and  3  multispecies   Meta-­‐‑community  (2%) models  (either  at  species  or  at  food  web  level). .  species  distribution/Habitat  Suitability.   bio-­‐‑optical   models.  4.   E2E   models   encompass   all   of   them.

  Results:  indicators     *  Model  Derived  Indicators   (MDI):   MDI  Major  categories 201  identified    Example  of  MDI   Categories % *  MDI  types:     1 Biomass   57 Spatial  dynamic  (41%) 2 Diversity  indicators   Trophic  level  of  community   13 3 Physical.  hydrological  and   Phosphate  concentration 12 Static  (40%) chemical   4 Primary  or  secondary  production   9 Dynamic  (19%) 5 Spatial  distribution   Zooplankton  distribution  range 6 *  MDI  status  of  development 6 Ecological  Network  Analysis Finn’s  cycle  index 2 Operational  (64%)   7 Species  life-­‐‑history Species  mean  length  and  weight 1 Under-­‐‑development  (33%) Conceptual  (3%) .

 Salinity Biogeochemical 9.  Denitrification  layer  depth  (bed) 26.  Ratio    fodder  zoo/jelly    (biomass)   food 8.  Bacteria  distributional  range 21.  Nano.  Eastward_sea_water_velocity 27.  Phytoplankton  functional  types  (Diatoms.  Oxygen 30.  pH 32.  Primary  production alteration species 7.  Nutrient  concentration  variability 29.  Bacteria D9 D10 D11 20.  Ammonium  concentration 19.  Phytoplankton  distributional  range D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 2.  Sea  water  salinity Bio-­‐optical 10.  Chlorophyll-­‐‑a  concentration 24.  Biomass  and  production  of  zooplankton 22.    (biomass)   Contaminants Energy/Noise Hydrological   Marine  litter Model  type Food  webs 6.  Flagellates) 3.  Sea_surface_height_above_sea_level Multispecies 12.  Current 25.  Phytoplankton  biomasss:-­‐‑  diatoms 35.  Micro.  Flagellates) Presence  MDI 18.  Suspended  sediment  concentration E2E 14.  Pico.  Zooplnkton  distributional  range High  Majority  MDI .  Silicate  concentration Hydrodynamic-­‐  biogeochemical   13.  Temperature SDM  /  Habitat  Suitability 15.  Phosphate  concentration 33.  Phytoplankton  biomasss:-­‐‑  dinoflagellates   36.  Het.  Nitrate  concentration 28.  Sea  water  temperature Meta-­‐community 11. Results   Models  in  relation  to  MSFD  descriptors Models/MDI  in  relation  to  biodiversity   components 1.  Zoobenthos  biomass No  MDI 17.  Total  benthic  oxic  respiration 16.  Population  size:-­‐‑    Noctiluca  scinitillans.  Biomass  of    fodder  zooplankton   23.  Oxygen  penetration  depth  (bed) 31.  Population  size:-­‐‑    Aurelia  aurita    (  biomass)   Seafloor  integrity Contaminants  in   Non-­‐indigenous   Human  induced   Commercial  fish eutrophication 5.  Population  size:-­‐‑      Mnemioplsis  leidyi    (biomass)   Biological  diversity 4.  Phytoplankton  biomass 34.  Zooplankton  functional  types  (Meso.

Results   Models  geographical  distribution/   #  Model  capabilities  to  address  pressures spatial  coverage .

.  contamination  by  microbial  pathogens  and  by  radionuclides  require  further  development *  Data  availability  is  a  constraint   .  spatial  resolutions   of  selected  species/taxa  (e.g.  linkages  between  pressures  and   ecosystem  function *  Of  the  pressures:  underwater  noise.  D10.  spatial  coverage  not  available  or  still  under  development  for  species/taxa).  marine  liier.  Dynamic  Energy  Budget  models  not  included) *  Regarding  the  DEVOTES  Biodiversity  related  descriptors.g.   Conclusions:  gaps  and  development  needs     *  Strong  presence  of  certain  models/areas  targeted  by  DEVOTES  partners  (e..g.  increase  or  refine  species  selections  in  models)  .  urge  the  need  to  improve  species  diversity  (e.  D11  are  not  addressed  by  any  models *  Under  development  models/indicators  are  still  quite  numerous *  Not    all  the  models  are  able  to  address  uncertainty *  Target  seiings  and/or  reference  values  unclear  to  model  developers *  Of  the  existing  models.  D9..  D2  is  the  least  assessed  and  D6  lacks  indicators  on  biogenic  substrate/seabed   extent *  D8.

Current  project   .

II   I   Current  project   III   IV   Hindcasting  the  Mediterranean  marine  ecosystem   using  the  software  Ecopath  with  Ecosim  and   Ecospace 100+  functional  groups.  MEPS  533:  47-­‐‑65 .1  dd  grid   Piroddi  et  al.  assigned  to  the  4  MSFD   zones Time  frame  1950  –  2010 Entire  basin  at  0.  Modelling  the  Mediterranean  marine  ecosystem  as  a  whole:  addressing  the  challenge  of  complexity.  2015.

  Other  small  pelagics.   24.  Piscivores  cetaceans.   4.Ecopath  for  the  Med   1. 26.  Zooplankton. 6. 9.   28.  Seagrass.  European  hake. 12.   2. 13. 25.   23.   17.  Benthos. 20.  Crustaceans.  Discards .  Pinnipeds.   22.  Medium  pelagics.  Detritus.  European  anchovy.   16.  Small  demersals. 18. 19. 10.  Large  pelagics.  Seaturtles.  Bivalves  and  gastropods.  Large  demersals. 7.   15.   3.  Rays  and  skates.  Phytoplankton.  Seabirds.  European  pilchard.  Benthopelagic  cephalopods.  Sharks. 8.   14. 5.  Other  cetaceans.  Benthic  cephalopods.  Jellyfish.  Deep  fish. 21.  Medium  demersals. 27. 11.

Hindcast:  Ecosim Observed  biomass  data Drivers   •  Fish  stocks:  MEDITS.:  few  data  point  from  1990s   -­‐‑  1990-­‐‑2010  (POM-­‐‑ERSEM.  GFCM.  2010) Modelling  the  historical  impact  of  environmental  and  fisheries  drivers  on  the  Mediterranean  marine  ecosystem:  an  ecosystem  based  management  approach.  1970s.  In  prep .  HCMR) (Wei  et  al.  Sea  Around  Us   Project) 1990s •  Primary  production:   •  Sea  turtles  from  1985  onwards -­‐‑  1960-­‐‑2010  (GETM-­‐‑ERGOM.  MEDIAS •  Reconstructed  fishing  effort  (1950-­‐‑2010.  JRC) •  Deep  fish  and  benthic  inv.   •  Pinnipeds:  few  data  points  for  1960s..1980s  and   FISHSTAT.

I P_PI.E Year E 5 O_ST P_ST Year 6 O_LP P_LP Year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Years Year .E P_PI.W P_PI.A Year Biomass (tons*km2) 3 I O_PI.I Year 4 O_PI.W 2 A O_PI.   Hindcast:  Ecosim   1   W O_PI.A P_PI.

1  dd  grid Modelling  the  historical  impact  of  environmental  and  fisheries  drivers  on  the  Mediterranean  marine  ecosystem:  an  ecosystem  based  management  approach.  PP  and  trophic  interactions §  Entire  basin  at  0.  In  prep .  Depth.  Substratum §  Constraint:  MSFD  areas §  Fishing  effort. Hindcast:  Ecospace §  Layers:  1.  2.  4.  Salinity  surface  and  boiom.  3.  SST  and  boiom.

Environmental  responses:  Aquamap   .

Environmental  responses:  GAM   Temperature  and  Salinity:  European  pilchard  and  European  anchovy   Giannoulaki  et  al  2013.     .  Final  Report.  Mediterranean  Sensitive  Habitats.600741.  DG  MARE  Specific  Contract  SI2.  557  p.

 Whales Computed  habitat  capacity Whale  abundance  and  distribution .. e.g.

 An  ecosystem-­‐based  approach  for  the  Mediterranean  Sea  in  support  of  the  EU  Biodiversity  Strategy  and  the  Marine  Strategy   Framework  Directive. Using  EwE  to  support  MSFD  and  EU   MSFD  descriptors Biodiversity  Strategy   D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 Human  ind. 0.00012 Community  biomass TL  of  community Alien  species  distribution 30°0'0"N Top predators/Tot B High : 0.00010 Prop.  Piscivorous 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Species diversity Top  predators/tot  biomass Years 0°0'0" 10°0'0"E 20°0'0"E 30°0'0"E 50°0'0"N . Ratio  invertebrates/fish 12 Species  diversity Keystone  index Phytoplankton  biomass 11 PP Catch/biomass 40°0'0"N K Biomass  commercial  species PPR 10 Discards/landings TL  of  catch Species diversity High : 13 MSFD  indicators 30°0'0"N 9 Low : 8 Potential  MSFD  indicators 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Years Piroddi   Piroddi  et  al.00016 Alien  species  biomass 0.  Large  predatory  fish Low : 0.00014 40°0'0"N PrB Species  distribution Species  biomass Community  distribution 0.00016 Indicators 0.0001 Prop.  An  ecosystem-­‐‑ beased  approach  for  the  Mediterranean  Sea  in  support  of  the  EU  Biodiversity  Strategy  and  the  Marine  Strategy  Framework  Directive.  In  preparation   t  al.  In  preparation     .  eutrophication Non-­‐indigenous  species 0°0'0" 10°0'0"E 20°0'0"E 30°0'0"E Biological  diversity Tot Predators/Tot B Commercial  fish Food  webs .