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IGC GRAINS CONFERENCE 2017: London - 6 June

for futher details see www.igc.int

INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL WORLD ESTIMATES
www.igc.int 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
est. f'cast. proj.
million tons 27.04 25.05

Market
TOTAL GRAINS a)
Grain

Production 2051 2012 2120 2054 2053
Trade 322 346 349 342 346
Consumption 2010 1988 2087 2079 2086
Carryover stocks 457 481 513 491 479

Report
year/year change 41 24 32 -34
Major exporters b) 150 154 178 169 158

WHEAT
Production 730 738 754 736 736
Trade 153 166 173 166 169
Consumption 715 719 738 738 738
GMR 477 – 25 May 2017
Carryover stocks 206 225 241 239 239
year/year change 15 19 16 -2
Major exporters b) 66 68 79 73 68

MAIZE (CORN)
Production 1021 977 1065 1026 1026
Trade 125 136 138 139 140

HIGHLIGHTS Consumption 996 974 1048 1046 1054
Carryover stocks 207 209 226 207 197
year/year change 25 3 17 -29
With changes mainly for maize (corn), the forecast for total grains Major exporters c) 58 59 76 73 69
(wheat and coarse grains) production in 2016/17 is 8m t higher m/m
(month-on-month), at a record 2,120m, up by 5% y/y (year-on-year). SOYABEANS
However, because of an increased figure for consumption, especially Production 320 315 350 348 348

for feed, the projection for carryover stocks is cut by 3m t, to 513m, Trade 127 134 141 146 147

still the largest ever. Consumption 312 320 339 350 351
Carryover stocks 37 33 43 38 39
At 2,053m t (-3% y/y), grains production expectations for 2017/18 are year/year change 9 -5 10 -4
only a little lower m/m. Increased consumption from last time is Major exporters d) 15 17 27 23 24
mostly for industrial use, on upward revisions for maize-based
million tons (milled basis)
ethanol in the USA and starch in China. This contributes to smaller
RICE
ending inventory figures for those countries and the forecast for world
Production 480 472 484 487 487
total grains stocks is cut by 12m t from before, to 479m (-7% y/y).
Trade 42 39 40 41 41
Only a small y/y retreat in trade is anticipated, to 346m t.
Consumption 476 474 483 485 488
Upgrades for South America lift the 2016/17 global soyabean outturn Carryover stocks 119 118 119 120 119
forecast by 5m t m/m, to a record of 350m, up by 11% y/y and more year/year change 4 -1 1 0
than 60m above the prior five-year average. The Council’s projection Major exporters e) 37 32 31 30 28
for 2017/18 production is unchanged from April, at 348m t, a Figures may not add due to rounding
a) Wheat and coarse grains
fractional y/y fall. However, a higher figure for opening stocks results b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, USA
in an upward revision to total supplies, which is channelled to c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, USA
d) Argentina, Brazil, USA
increased consumption and carryovers. Nevertheless, inventories are e) India, Pakistan, Thailand, USA, Vietnam
still expected to tighten, mainly in some exporters. Trade is seen
rising by 4% y/y, to a fresh peak. IGC GRAINS & OILSEEDS INDEX (GOI)
Jan 2000 = 100
350
The incorporation of official data for India raises the forecast for world
rice output in 2016/17 to a record of 484m t (+2% y/y). The 2017/18 300
crop outlook is maintained at a high of 487m t. But, due to increased
total use m/m, aggregate end-season stocks are predicted fractionally 250

lower than previously, at 119m t, albeit steady y/y. Within the total,
major exporters’ inventories could fall by 9% y/y. Traded volumes in 200

2018 are projected little changed from April, at 41m t.
150

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by 2% m/m, 2017 2016 2012-16 range
including net gains for all the sub-Indices. 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
See: http://www.igc.int/grainsupdate/igc_goi.xlsb

Kazakhstan. including strong gains for feed and industrial major storms in the USA.0. Largely stemming from exceptional yields in many  Grains production in 2017/18 is expected to producers. global trade is seen reaching an brief. including another Total supply 2.467 2. the 2017/18 IGC Grains & Oilseeds Prices Index (GOI)* world outturn is predicted to fall by 3% y/y. Consumption is reductions for wheat and barley account for most forecast to trend up on growing demand for soyabean of the small projected decline. products from feed.5% Trade (Jul/Jun) 322 346 349 346 .11. EU. but major exporters’ Production 2. GMR 476 2 .3% Industrial 325 329 345 349 + 1. Consumption is projected to match change the previous season’s high. Trade is seen  World rice stocks in 2017/18 are seen steady y/y.) change use is expected to underpin record uptake. of which: Food 667 666 683 692 + 1. With contractions in the IGC GOI 186 + 2. at 39m t. 20% above the prior five-year average. Russia.566 .053 .120m t (+5% y/y). Movements in currencies were uses. with the IGC GOI up by a) Argentina. by 11% in 2016/17.988 2. they would be nearly stocks could contract by 9% y/y. production could edge lower in 2017/18 but. to 2. dropping by 2% to a near eight-month low.0% . USA a net 2%. Tied to continued 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 y/y population increases in Asia and Africa. including a series of by maize. assuming Total grains: Supply and demand summary mt modest area expansion in some producers. world soyabean production is set to increase retreat by 3% from the previous season’s record. still about one percentage Barley sub-Index 169 + 2.2% carryovers could drop by 9%. world stocks will likely also an important feature. Australia. to a new peak.0% Assuming supplies are ample and attractively priced. Total use 2. should remain at elevated levels.087 2. grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2016/17 was the largest in history. the global outturn could edge up to a new peak.3% reduction in Thailand. This would Maize sub-Index 173 + 0.0. The outlook for 2017/18 is provisional but. with the US dollar index post their fourth consecutive expansion. An Quotations were occasionally affected by unfavourable anticipated consumption increase of almost 100m t is led northern hemisphere crop weather.7% A firmer tone was observed across global grains. where conditions showed low. rising by 4% y/y. a projected 5% increase in area. a 7% decline in aggregate Wheat sub-Index 163 + 2. up by 12m y/y. at 2. A sudden.010 1. Strength in rice. **Change vs.5% . but major exporters’ inventories are likely to fall. with those in Thailand dropping to a nine-year Mainly on bigger crops in Asia. a marked improvement on the previous season.8% + 0. Despite the With all-time highs for wheat and maize. with maize likely seeing the biggest placed at a record of 43m t.0% + 1.GMR 477 – 25 May 2017 IGC expected to expand. although large opening inventories will help to cushion y/y GMR 477 Change** the drop in supplies. to a peak of 350m t.1% + 0. but  Global soyabean supplies are likely to stay inventories could tighten on a drawdown in some elevated in 2017/18 but.120 2.051 2. due to rising uptake. food and industrial sectors.0% Closing stocks 457 481 513 479 . Ukraine. the GOI remained 6% below year ago levels.3. supplies  Grains trade will probably stay high in 2017/18. was particularly evident. if At an expected 349m t. underpinned by robust food.053m t.10. dip in the value of the Brazilian real had a unprecedented level. maize and rye trade are *Jan 2000=100. due to heavy carry-ins. feed and industrial demand.6.1. end-season carryovers are predicted. to a nine-year low of 4. to 346m t.0% take the world stocks/use ratio to a three-year low of 23% (25% previous year). rice and oilseed markets during May. barley OVERVIEW and sorghum. world rice output in 2016/17 is placed at 484m t.7m t.) (f'cast) (proj.1% probable record in 2016/17. up by one-third y/y. Only a modest retreat Rice sub-Index 164 + 6. Despite fall.0% carryovers is projected at the end of 2017/18.6% M A R K E T S U M M A RY a) major exporters 150 154 178 158 . but falls are seen for wheat.3% traded volumes are predicted to remain high. Although total  The first stocks contraction in five years is use is likely to rise solidly.086 . With reductions anticipated for most grains. Canada.3% point above the five-year average.11. Feed 891 881 930 927 .2% major exporters and China. Aggregate Opening stocks 416 457 481 513 + 6.7% stocks are projected steady y/y.012 2. second only to the Soyabeans sub-Index 184 + 2. global total m/m gain. largely attributed to firmer global demand.8% .0.600 2. significant impact on soyabeans late in the month. exporters.5% in trade is forecast. Nevertheless.6. Despite record demand.469 2. growth in food (est.

… 17 countered seasonal weakness in Argentina. as prices moved higher on strong buying interest from importers.. 280 Soyabeans: GOI sub-Index 240 Jan 2000 = 100 370 200 330 160 290 2017 2016 2012-16 range 120 250 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 210 The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index gained a net 3% from April. 2017 2016 2012-16 range 130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Maize: GOI sub-Index Jan 2000 = 100 With slow farmer selling occasionally underpinning spot 360 prices in South America. especially ahead of Ramadan. Oilseeds…………………………………………………………20 Ocean Freight Market …………………………………………25 Rice: GOI sub-Index National Policy & Other Developments……………. The upside 170 mainly stemmed from North America. the IGC GOI soyabean sub-Index rose by 2% 320 m/m.. 280 240 200 GMR CONTENTS 160 Wheat …………………………………………………………… 4 2017 2016 2012-16 range Durum………………………………………………………………… 7 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Maize…………………………………………………………… 8 Barley…………………………………………………………… 11 Average global maize export quotations were fractionally Other coarse grains……………………………………………………13 higher in May.. as modest late-month strength in the USA Rice………………………………………………………….. Particular firmness was noted in 320 Jan 2000 = 100 Thailand.…… 26 Jan 2000 = 100 Market Focus / Special Features 225 Maize: South Asia summary………………………………………… 9 Rice: Update on South American exports……………………………19 205 Quarterly Updates (pdf version only) Industrial use of grains World trade in wheat flour 185 Tables……………………………………………………………27 165 © IGC 2017 145 2017 2016 2012-16 range 125 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3 . but with average prices unchanged y/y. where concerns mounted about winter wheat crop quality and yields. to a near ten-month peak. coupled with good international demand.IGC GMR 477 – 25 May 2017 Wheat: GOI sub-Index The IGC GOI rice sub-Index increased by 6% m/m.

1 1.6 (32.8) MAJOR EXPORTERS b) 2015/16 est.9) (26.2 41.8 2.9 881.0 220.0 2.3) (491. 31.8 38.5 65.3 42.2 (12.8) (30.0 513.6 108.8 2016/17 f'cast 9.1 295.0 4.9 128.2 12.1 66.9 9.1) (3.5 349.5 18.9) (37.7 7.1 1.0 98.4 52.087. 9.7 147.7 2.0) (70.8) (424.0) (818.8 373.2 369.2 183.2 4.7 169.5 7.4 26.7 (12.2 358.0 122.5 74.0) (68.0 0.7 63.1 2016/17 f'cast 38.2 151.1) (10.4) (108.6 37.8 29.8) Canada 2015/16 est.3) (168.6 0.1 132.9 109.7 176.4 1.8 6.7 34.9 178.3) (80.8) (299.1 62.8 2.1 81.8 140.8 141.0 69.3 349.1) EU* 2015/16 est.0) (925.8 2017/18 proj.5 363.5 35.8 140.6 9.2 68. 195.565.2 6.0 319.8 302.4 2016/17 f'cast 7.9) (134. 4.0 12.4 0.3 2016/17 f'cast 7.1 67.5 (7. 12.6 0.600.9) Kazakhstan 2015/16 est.2 0.138.5 7.2 109.5 183.6 18.4 2.8) (108.2 97.5 357.6 13. 513.8 6.6) (526.3 1.2) (4.3 165.7) (2078.9 7.5 20. 12.2 345.6 32.7 195.4 683.6 411.8 0.8 13.5 2.1) (123.4 354.5 5.7) (51.276.9 3.5 6.0) (282.7 96.2 2016/17 f'cast 3.6 2.8) (342.9 14.1 2017/18 proj.5 0.8 27.9 2.4 929.0 63.3 29.0) (150.2 15. 6.3 8.0 12.6 10.2 352.6 0.8 0.8 421.052.9 59.4) India 2015/16 est.2 2016/17 f'cast 192. 7.0) (86.0 16.3 30.4) (62. 178.0 54.3 13.7 2017/18 proj.2 15. 9.2 17.7) (64. 3.6 1.1 2017/18 proj.1 302.0 91.2 175.1 4.8 22.4 27.7 18.6 (198.8 27.5 17.9 6.9 2016/17 f'cast 7.2 0.5 792.5 14.5 12.6 70.2 51.4 15.0) (2054.9 30.1 22.6 2.0 133.8 16.3 44.9) China 2015/16 est.5 2.0 345.2 280.2 1.3 67.3 9.3 562.8 16.2 3.2 0.1 70.8 418.5 17.8 153.7 480.0 926.6 2.6 2017/18 proj.2 (516.5 0.5 16. SUPPLY & DEMAND: TOTAL GRAINS# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks TOTAL GRAINS Argentina ** 2015/16 est. 12.5) (12.4 36.8 57.7 1.6 8.7) (31.0 4.2 36.8 2017/18 proj.8 2016/17 f'cast 74.8 2.2 13.1 23.9) (185.245.9 92. 92.1 70.7 6.2 59.1) (342.1 5.2) (416. 67.1 345.5 2.5) (174.2) (6.5) (97.4 328.9 62.3 (93.2 1.4) USA 2015/16 est.4 129.5 498.7) (153.8 165.1 2017/18 proj.6 521.1 5.3 4. 34.1) (358.3 1.7 5.0 71.086. 456.2 25.8 7.0 7.468.9 122.2) (228.5 139.9 25. 165. 150.2) (68.1 146.012.5 5.9) (67.8 465.6 38.8 (12.2) (1286.3 0.119.7 38.5 566.1 20.3 40.2 3.4 0.4 32.9 359.5 346.7 3.9 2017/18 proj.5) (344.1 7.9 18.7 6.9 67.7 692.0 27.9 17.7 (181.4 0.4) (26.9 1.6) (70.6 155.2) (2.4 26.7 353.0 368.9 39.6 37.3 822.5 1.1) (192.5 346.6 35.7) (140.7) Ukraine 2015/16 est.9 16.9 72.5 0.4 2016/17 f'cast 5.2 63.9 3.7) (36.5 229.2 0.3 36.1 1.9 278.5) (565.9 105.4 (4.1 10.4 12.0 26.4) (37.7) (16.5 1.0 70.8 96.2 157.0 2017/18 proj.4 2016/17 f'cast 17.1 2.2 5.1 132.5 2017/18 proj.5 2.3 114.5 21.2 2.6 32.4 1.2 50.6 0.6) (138.8 5.5 99.6) (11.3) .8 400.2 2.0 349.067.6 177.8 37.1) (32.5 479.1 2017/18 proj.5 3.2 1.7 666.6) (13.1 21.5 Russia 2015/16 est. 10.1) (44.9 2016/17 f'cast 153.2) (20.3 231.8 5.7) Australia ** 2015/16 est.8 14.4 66.5 (14.5 37.3 3.1 125.7 153.0) (30. 9.4 0.3 78.0 7. 21.4 0.062.0 1.4 298.2) (359.0 81.2 19.2 2.4) (166.6 423.1) (690. 13.9 8.1 35.1 33.3 10.3 4.3 363.2 165.2 0.3 10.4 64.0 186.0 75.0) WORLD TOTAL c) c) 2015/16 est. 3.9 2016/17 f'cast 480.0 7.8 345.2 43.1 31.0 27.0 26.987.4 12.1) (19.3) (2570.4) (306.2 311.1) (17.8 8.5 53.7 3.7 17.8 0.1 38.6 32.3 816.0 547.6 280.8) (353.9 0.8) (1074.9 2017/18 proj.1 60.9 0.9 550.320.6 192.3) (14.9 69.6) (371.6 26.

5 3.0 2.4 2. 20.0 0.5) (14.2 15.4 54.0 109.7 (2. 12.0) (31.2 224.3) (239.6) (503.4 67.9 78.1 6.6 0.6 78.2 943.9) (236.4) (116.2 6.8 496.3 2016/17 f'cast 6.7 0.7 2017/18 proj.7 2.2 3.4 2017/18 proj.4 9.6 7.5 2016/17 f'cast 79.1 35.7 72.3 0.0) (2.9 3.0 464.1 (79.6 61.5 14.2 37.8) India (Apr/Mar) 2015/16 est.6 0.2 3.3) (55.8) (11.1 27.0) (124.4) (9.0 13.0 27.0 125.6 (12.5 27.6 52.1 6.6 15.4 238.1 11. 8.4 87.3 737.6 (50.9) WORLD TOTAL e) e) 2015/16 est.7 2016/17 f'cast 5. 2.9 16. 13.5 11.8 0.0 120.1 32.7 6.5 98.4 0.6 5.5 49.7) (375.0 0.0 380.1 99.0 1.7 0.4 13.5 47.8 0.0) (26. 14.5 0.2 4.2 33.0 32.1) (38.1 16.1 1.9 13. 9.1 25.1 34.0 1.2 4.0 110.4 3.5 26.0 30.1 79.9) (156.9) China (Jul/Jun) 2015/16 est.8 236.7 166.4 54.1 17.9 (13. 18.0) (95.4 87.6 2.5 16.4 20.5) USA (Jun/May) 2015/16 est.6 735.7 11.5 116.1 0.5 1.6) (166.4 156.9 223.1 0.7 5.5 5.5 25.5 0.2 0.9 169. 7.2 3.7 24.3 2017/18 proj.6 0.3 0.3 88.0 18.8 40. 3.5 0.2 3.7 2017/18 proj.3) (10.2 159.4) (225.5 11.9 15.7 25.3 107.9 149.9 120.9 68.6 4.7 53.4 6.9) (25.4 26.3 28.0 (4.8 7.6 (240.8 458.8 17.2 16.7 135.3 151.5 2016/17 f'cast 3.0) of which common wheat 2015/16 est.7 47.6 79.5 5.5 56.0) (85.4 11.1 3.1 27.8 164.1 13.5 2016/17 f'cast 17.0 92.6 2016/17 f'cast 0.1 21.7) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) 2015/16 est.6) (99.0 27.2 5.0 2.3) (6.7) (145.0 6.5) (87.2 3.6 110.6 13.5 5.0) (97. 4.6 11.1 4.6 197.3 172.7 (10.4 78.2 87.4 3.6 32.3 10.6) (737.6 153.7 0.8 3.2) Australia (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.9 31. 6.3 5.5 7.6 62.3 3.1 37.7 11.3 0.3 7.9 6.0 152.5 90.2 (10.6 170.0 2.8 15.0 126.4 10.1 11.2 (93.5 144.8 374.1 17.7 29.5) (22.1) (1.1 26.4) (72.3 86.2 29.8 4.0 141.1 0.2 0.8 87.3 0.4 2.3 21.1 212.4 738.0 0.8 17.0 2.2 34.5 0. 5.1 0.6) (141.2 1.2 0.1 7.8 0.9 4.9 0. 66.0 86.8 153.9) (125.3 10.2 128. 63.2 2017/18 proj.8 2017/18 proj.4 8.9 0.5 53.0) (4.3 172.5 3.0 406.0 2016/17 f'cast 68.8) (11.9 21.3) (976. 205.8 13.2 1.2 41.6 3.2 128.8 28.0 56.6 20. 5.5 24.8 159.0 2.4 0.7 2. 91.0 54.6 2017/18 proj.9 11.5 1.3) (166. 240.8 169.5 11.5 25.4 11.0 2017/18 proj.0 7.6 17.6 30.7 9.4 52.6 2.1 1.0 0.3) (736.5) (24.5 7.0 6.5 0.3 2016/17 f'cast 15.5) (10.0 91.5) (150.2 7.2 3.3) (85.9) (20.2 23.0) (51.5 0.3 23.2) (48.6 2016/17 f'cast 26.9 55.6 9.6 (10.0 11.6 84.5 6.4 84.0 0.8 2017/18 proj.0 24.7 68.4 504.4 117.5) (13.5 0.4 488.4 2.4 25.2 2017/18 proj.5 10.9) (51.5 4.0 97.8 5.0) .8 Canada (Aug/Jul) 2015/16 est.9 166.2 4.2 2016/17 f'cast 5.2 13.8 484.5 8.0 15.3 35.6 2016/17 f'cast 2.2 144.4 3. 1. SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL WHEAT# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks d) supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) d) stocks WHEAT Argentina (Dec/Nov) 2015/16 est.9 2017/18 proj.4 88.0 123.9 79.1 16.7 25.0 8.3) (156.6 978.8 1.1 0.6 0. 11.5 2017/18 proj.4 976.6 32.0 0.4 104.6 240.6 10.0 26.6 181.8 1.8) Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun) 2015/16 est.9 0.3 0.7) MAJOR EXPORTERS b) 2015/16 est.6 4.3 20.6 16.5) (80.1 0.5 0.7 5.0 6.3 21.4 20.3) (15.7 737.3 3.0) (8.8 96.6 14.1 2017/18 proj.5) (2.6) (3.6 168.4 5.5 754.0 47.2) EU* (Jul/Jun) 2015/16 est.9 35.9) (10.5 1.8 168. 7. 31.1 4.1) (112.2) (3.7 2016/17 f'cast 14.7 0.0 17.2 31.7 143.5 87.3 68.1 11.1 111.0 38.8 Russia (Jul/Jun) 2015/16 est.5 2016/17 f'cast 224.4 130.3 0.0) (107.4 2.2 11.4 25.1 16. 1.9 13.4 5. 78.0 718. 11.0 236.0 116.6 14.4) (27.3 9.7 240.5 3.4 2.5 128.6 0.9) (466.1 3.

0 5.2 15.5) (215.9 7. 101.7 WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2015/16 est. a) Including seed and waste f) Includes residual b) Argentina.3 16.5 7.9) Ukraine (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.7 (102.3 136.0 15.3 219.4 0.2) South Africa (May/Apr) 2015/16 2.8 286.0 14.5 3.3 2018/19 proj. USA h) Excludes trade in malt c) Includes trade in malt Totals may not sum due to rounding d) Including estimated trade in secondary products Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate e) IGC July/June trade: excluding trade in secondary products .5 326.8) (0.2 2018/19 proj.6 4. the "2017/18" year includes the 2017/18 (Dec/Nov) local marketing year for wheat and the 2018/19 (Mar/Feb) marketing year for maize.8 1.3 (12.3 2016/17 f'cast 109.3 59.0 154.4 8.7 2017/18 proj.2 48.9 140.5 0. 11.2 10.4) (4.5 417.1 5.3 12.8) Japan (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.4) (52.8 42.6 12.0 3.5 101.8) (1026.0 57.8 4.1 5.0 1.0 1.3 5.025.0 25.2 33.1 5.2 13.8 0. For example.2 3.9 0. 3.6 2016/17 f'cast 0.0 0. SUPPLY & DEMAND: MAIZE# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks MAIZE Argentina (Mar/Feb) 2015/16 4.0 0.5 2.7 1.2 2.8 151.8) (115.4 7.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 5.0 43.6 (58. 1.3) (89.0 2.064.3 1.7 1. 0.6 226.5 (226.6 0.5) (73.5 217.5 2017/18 proj.9 11.0 28.3 209.3 15.2 197.5 4.7 315.6 1.8 0.0 48.5 140.7 110.7 5. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in this report.1 4. 5.6 62.8) (319.5 19.3 16.6) (45.7 12.7 15.0 2017/18 proj. Years shown for southern hemisphere countries include following marketing years for maize and sorghum.2 2.3 4.0 11.9 130.0 15.0 73.8 4.1 109.2 47.8) EU* (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.9) (281.2 (5.0 2.3 7.4 2016/17 f'cast 209.0 5. 2.3 232.4 11.7 391.6 3.9 4.9 61.3 98.5 61.2 10.0 46. g) IGC July/June trade Russia. Ukraine. 8.4 8.3 88.7) (15.2 0.1 15.2 162.5 0.4 224.3 4.9 4.0 13.9 84.1 34.6 0.1 5.2 0.2 16.3 2016/17 f'cast 7.252.4 67.8 139.7) (314.7 80.7 2.0) (25.2 84.4 2016/17 est. 7. Canada.0 114.0) (139.7 1.2 USA (Sep/Aug) f) 2015/16 est.6 608. for Argentina.0 317.5 2.7 1. 98.7 79.5 57.3 6.3) (140.9 26.4 1.5 138.0 2016/17 f'cast 1.5 16.6 0.3 23.5) (152.0) (1046.4) (614.8 12.6 2.0 345.3 11.9 0.1 51.0 5.0) (81.5 11. Australia.2 10.2 169.8 2017/18 proj.2 13.0 15.6) Brazil (Mar/Feb) 2015/16 13.8 0.4) (360.7 0.0 30.3 14.3) (1252.3) (229.0 0.8 12.6 281.0 974.0 3.1 0.5 2017/18 proj.4 0.6 1.0 0.5 2.5 78.4 12.9 8.0 115.6 52.9 0. 206.0 57.8 2017/18 f'cast 5.0) (11. 226.1) (87.0 79.8 93.8 24.5 3.8 330.1 384.7) (63.5 215.2 4.2 101.5) (5.2 (4.7 7.6 0.1 298.5 1.5 267.8 0.3) (59.2 6.9 1.1 1.1 3.0 618.9 48.0 137. 0.8 357.6 5.5 5.0 13.1) (99.4 1.2 5.0 11.0 13.8 39.0 0.0 0.1 3.2 19.0 315.3 70.3 50.2 2.8 2016/17 est.9 1.2 44.5 45.3 2018/19 proj.0 15.5 28.6 7.5 26.3 0.0) (1.6 1.9) (168.054.5 2. 57.6 5.2 56.5 0.6 2017/18 proj.9) # IGC estimates.9 16.7 55.8) (2.4 2016/17 est.5 0.5 0.5 5.0) (139.6 137.7 977.0 29.8 1.0 28. EU.274.4 49. 2.4 19.1 3.0 15.0) China (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.0) (419. 2.2 1.0 0.2 1.2 21.3) (206.3 14.5 0. 5.4) (63.5 100.5 228.6 61.0 144.7 11.048.8 71.8 59.0 136.0 0.0 7. 44.0 38.8 2017/18 f'cast 7.5 0. Kazakhstan.4 15.0 15.183.2 39.8 9.4 430.1 2017/18 f'cast 1.2 171.1 1.3 60.1 2016/17 f'cast 44.9) (56.3 1.3 570.9 16.5 0.0 52.0 (1.9 50.7 0.7 0.

9 0. 0.5 146.6) (6.4) Bangladesh (Jul/Jun) 2015/16 est.1 35.3 203.1 0.5 19.6 41.8 3.0 3.3 1.3 203.8 13.3 37.6 2016/17 f'cast 3.4 12.6 1.9 119.1 6.6) (3.3 10.9 2017/18 proj.1 35.5 2017/18 proj.9 4.2 32.0 2. .3 4.9 606.1 0. Vietnam.4 16. 3.8 6.0 2016/17 f'cast 118. b) India.9 0.4 145.7 0. 57.5 2017/18 proj. Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.4 (5.6 15.7 34.6) (605.4) # IGC estimates.3 109.2 0.8 2017/18 proj.8 3.5 0.0 7.9 591.8 144.3 0.7 32.6 487.4 4. 6.7) Pakistan (Nov/Oct) 2015/16 est.5) (128.8 2017/18 proj.1 100.3) (8.9 1.0 482.8 8.9 6.5) (9.8 WORLD TOTAL 2015/16 est.9 10.8 95. 31.7 11.2) (213.0 28.9 35.8 0.0 3.4 2017/18 proj. 0.0 483.1 0.7 0.4 0.5 2.3 214.9 8.1 0.3 2016/17 f'cast 1.4) (10.1 110.8 8.8 9.7 0.0 144.8 9.9) (26.8) (18.2 5.7 23.6 0. 1.9) (4. USA. 119.6 1.9 Philippines (Jul/Jun) 2015/16 est.9 34.2 3.5 19.6 0.3 25.5 10.5 5.0 129.9 40.1 0.6 23.5) (99.3 0.0 2.0 4.7 1.5 7.3 199.4 38.5 1.3 34.0 0. 11.8 141. 2.7 473.1 10.1 6.5 0.5 0. Totals may not sum due to rounding.7 9.2 13.4 34.9 41.6) (139.5 64.2 (1.4 2017/18 proj. 19.2 18. 64.5 0.1 2017/18 proj.7 4.3 0.5 0.6 41.1 15.4 171.9 207.7) (33.2) (171.6 6.6 3.5 2017/18 proj.4 (31.8 3.3 472.3 2016/17 f'cast 8. 1.4 28.9 11.4 2016/17 f'cast 3.5 (18.8 145.4 67.5 2.4 2016/17 f'cast 32.0 10.6 40.9 0.2 0.4 487.7 0.4 602.3 2016/17 f'cast 18.2 40. a) Including seed and waste.9) (67.6 0.4 138.6 37. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.8 3. 4.8 38.2 31.7 (6.5 3.6) (40.7 4.4 0.7 0. Thailand.7 2016/17 f'cast 2.6 33.8 2.6 134.0 127.6) (120.5 97.1 1.0 3.8 0.7 4.5 15. 3.3 1.6) (3.3) USA (Aug/Jul) 2015/16 est.0 23.0 28.0 1.6 37.5 2017/18 proj.5 0. Pakistan.3 3.4 1.4) Vietnam (Jan/Dec) 2015/16 est.0 3.2 210.0) Indonesia (Jan/Dec) 2015/16 est.2 36.5 4.0 2. SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL RICE# Million tons (milled basis) Opening Production Imports Total Total Exports Closing stocks supply use a) stocks India (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.4 119.0 37.0 7.9 0.0 0.5 28.6 18.7 161.5 34.5 12.0) (203.3 10.5 2016/17 f'cast 1.1 36.4 27.9 2016/17 f'cast 0. 2.4 61.8 145.4 0.5 6.7 Thailand (Jan/Dec) 2015/16 est.0 0.0 7.8 China (Jan/Dec) 2015/16 est. 1.0 123.8 0.0 (118.3 18. 3.9) (486.6 36.4 0.4 31.9 118.6 11.2) (40.4 169.6) (6.2 32.5) (30.3 27.8 2016/17 f'cast 61. 19.0) (10.1 34. 36.7 40.6 (144.6 2017/18 proj.5 32.4 104. 1.6) (485. 119.6) Total 5 leading exporters b) 2015/16 est.

9 10.5 2.3 4.0 0.0) (2.9 11.1 0.6 24.7) (0. 37.2) (112.7 67.4 17. 12.4 47.0 4.4 83.6 0.6 2.3 2016/17 f'cast 0.1 39.1 9.3 52.2 8.4 14.8 2.8 (7.4 17.8) (12.8 2017/18 proj.0 9.0 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 4.2 1.3 9.7) (0.6 2.8 2.2 0.1) (146.9 2018/19 proj.3 6.6) (114.7 0.3 2017/18 proj.2 3.2 2017/18 proj.5 0.6 0. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.1 4.2 17. 0.4 3.1) (146. 0.8 9.0 0.2 42. USA c) IGC October/September trade Totals may not sum due to rounding Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.1 4.3 0.2 47. 0.5) China (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.5 0.0 13.1) (347.2 26.2 52.2 2017/18 f'cast 0.7 16.2 (40.9 110.7 5.7 137.0 118.5 0.9) (350.2 0.4 8.3 0.1) (4.7 (5.0 2.8 0.1 2.0 4.8 0.0 9.2 0.8 11.2 10.1 3.2 3.2 0.2 0.5 339.1 (0.8 107.3 49. Brazil.8 11.8 146.2) (92.5 0.1 11.9 0.0) (310.9 2017/18 proj.3 4.3) (156.3 2016/17 f'cast 5.8 0.4 14.6 130.5 6.1 0.1 0.2 97.1) (310.8 18.2 352.5) (50.1) (10.4 97.9 2.6 4.6 390. 0.5 2.2 3.2 4.0) (10.0 0.8 301.7 128.9 0.0 13.0 0.3 0.3) Ukraine (Sep/Aug) 2015/16 est.6 52.2 3.9) Total 3 major exporters b) 2015/16 est.0 4.0 0.4 0.6) (20.0 9.5) (14.1 134.0 58.1 9.1 0.5 14.6 63.3 61.7 2.7 277.5 146.0 143.7 2017/18 proj.1 (14.2 106.7 123.9 0. 5.4 115.4 3.9 2017/18 proj. a) Including seed and waste.6 0.3 47.4 0.1 0.4) (1.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 9.2 2.3) (11.5 6.3 8.0 (11.8 141.3 7.5 0.4 146.5 0.4 0.1 0.2) (0.3 54.7 1.2 2017/18 proj.8 84.3 0.2) (37.9 16.6 1.0 0. 7.8) (146.8 92. SUPPLY & DEMAND: SOYABEANS# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Feed Crush Total a) stocks SOYABEANS Argentina (Apr/Mar) 2016/17 est.7 12.7 0.4 14.4 87.1 88.2 0.2) (7.4) (11.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.7) (130.0) (91.0 0.0 1.0 2.3 2.5 2016/17 f'cast 32.2 0.0 2.6 0.3 14.1 8.5 2.4 1.5 0.9 2.1 311.5 14.3 56.3 46.0) Canada (Sep/Aug) 2015/16 est.1 113.9 57.5 2017/18 proj.0 0.0 0.0 66.1 283.1 2016/17 f'cast 0. 42.8 0.0 0.7 286. 6.4 0.0 11.5) (5.0 3. 0.3 92.2 1.9 10.1 (1.7 0.5) (0.6 0.2 2. 26.7 126.8 2016/17 f'cast 0.2 1.6 13.4) (23.2 156.3 315.0) (284.9 0.5 1.1) USA (Sep/Aug) 2015/16 est.9 43.0 0.2 5.2 3.1 3.0 0.2 49.1 13.9 0.9 351.9 58.9 12.1 0.6 112.4 3.9 113.0 0.4 0.6 320.1) (63.0) (17.1 13.1 3.9 347.7 45.3 51.0 1.9 102.6 (0. .0 0.5 5.7 53.6 55.1 7. 0.1 2016/17 f'cast 0.3 117.2 134.7 (0. 0.6 0.4) (118.3 117.3 0.2 2.3 0.4 0.5 0.2) (65.6 5.5 0.3 0.4) (4. 0.3 2017/18 f'cast 9.5 49. 7.0) India (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.4 0.5 349.5 1.2 WORLD TOTAL c) c) 2015/16 est.3 8.5 0.1 9. 0.8 17.6 39.8) # IGC estimates.0 152.5) (0.0 10.2 382.1 305.3 311. 0.0 0. 14. 11.0 2.7 17.2) (387.2 0.2 0.3 57.1 0.2 Paraguay (Mar/Feb) 2016/17 est.5 16.4 141.2 0.4) Japan (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.6 0.1 4.3 8.4 0.1 3.7 12.4 (24.0) (2.5 3.0 4.6) (11.1 2017/18 f'cast 2.0 11.7 0.9) (2.7 1.2) (107.0) (126.0 3.0) Brazil (Feb/Jan) 2016/17 est.4 55.5 283.7) (47.6 95. b) Argentina.1 4.2 1. 1.5 2017/18 proj.5 0.6 16.2 32.6 261.1 12.7 2.2 2016/17 f'cast 0.8 115.9 2018/19 proj.3 6.9) (17.2) (57.0 66.7 2016/17 f'cast 16.6 2016/17 f'cast 13.7 0.5 16.1 3.2 3.7 0.3 3.3 111.0 0.3 7.5 13.5 0. 0.8 0.3 114.6 18.2) (6.7) (10.9 146.8) (118. 0.2 8.5) (7.1) EU* (Oct/Sep) 2015/16 est.2 0.0 13.8 20.2 1.3 2018/19 proj.6 2.6 43.8 0. 15.1 8.4 50.