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You are on page 1of 25

Lesson 32

Practical Significance

1

Example 1

Suppose a random sample of size 24 had a

sample mean of 33.8 and a sample standard

deviation of 9.8.

a) Test the hypotheses H0 : 30, H A : 30.

Use a significance level of 0.05.

b) Find the 95% confidence interval to estimate .

Where is the null value of 30 on this interval?

2

Example 2

Suppose a random sample of size 30 had a

sample mean of 32.8 and a sample standard

deviation of 10.57.

a) Test the hypotheses H0 : 40, H A : 40.

Use a significance level of 0.01.

b) Find the 99% confidence interval to estimate .

Where is the null value of 40 on this interval?

3

Example 3

Suppose a random sample of size 10 had a

sample mean of 19.9 and a sample standard

deviation of 6.85.

a) Test the hypotheses H0 : 15, H A : 15.

Use a significance level of 0.05.

b) Find the 95% confidence interval to estimate .

Where is the null value of 15 on this interval?

4

Confidence Intervals and

Tests

There is a close relationship between confidence

intervals and significance tests.

Specifically, if a point estimate is significantly

different from the null value at the 0.05 level, then

the 95% confidence interval will not contain that

null value.

5

Confidence Intervals and

Tests

Values inside the confidence interval are plausible

values for the parameter, whereas values outside

the interval can be considered implausible.

interval mean interval mean

"fail to reject". "reject".

(------------------------------|------------------------------)

Point

Estimate

6

Confidence Intervals and

Tests

Looking at non-significant effects in terms of

confidence intervals makes clear why the null

hypothesis should not be accepted when it is not

rejected: Every value in the confidence interval is

a plausible value of the parameter.

If a null value is in the interval, then it is plausible

and cannot be rejected. However, there is an

infinite number of other values in the interval

(assuming continuous measurement), and none of

them can be rejected either.

7

Example 4

The null hypothesis for a particular experiment is

that the mean test score is 20. If the 95%

confidence interval is (18, 24), can you reject the

null hypothesis?

the confidence interval shows that 20 is a plausible

value of the population parameter.

8

Example 5

Which of these 95% confidence intervals represent

samples that are significantly different from zero?

Select all that apply.

a) (4.6, 1.8)

b) (0.2, 8.1)

c) (5.1, 6.7)

d) (3.0, 10.9)

9

Example 6

True or false?

99% confidence interval.

the values that the 95% confidence interval has,

but it extends farther at both ends and has other

values, too. If something is not significant at the

.05 level, it is also non-significant at the .01 level.

10

Example 7

A researcher hypothesizes that the lowering in

cholesterol associated with weight loss is really

due to exercise. To test this, the researcher

carefully controls for exercise while comparing the

cholesterol levels of a group of subjects who lose

weight by dieting with a control group that does not

diet. The difference between groups in cholesterol

is not significant. Can the researcher claim that

weight loss has no effect?

11

Problems with Significance

Failing to reject the null hypothesis can mean

either that (1) the null hypothesis is true, or (2) the

alternative was actually true but there just wasn't

enough evidence (a Type 2 Error).

However, rejecting the null hypothesis can also be

problematic.

12

Example 8

Each graph below shows the difference of two

proportions. Which one shows a statistically

significant difference?

13

Example 9

Now using the p-values, which one shows a

statistically significant difference? What is going

on?

14

Example 10

Now consider the sample sizes. How does that

explain the p-values?

A B Total A B Total

Success 3 4 7 Success 40,000 39,000 79,000

Failure 2 1 3 Failure 60,000 61,000 121,000

Total 5 5 10 Total 100,000 100,000 200,000

p-value = 4.79 E 6

p-value = 0.4902

15

Problems with Significance

One problem with hypothesis tests is that samples

that are too large will tend to reject the null

hypothesis regardless of any effect.

The solution is that when you do reject the null

hypothesis, you should also consider the effect

size.

16

Effect Size

In most of the hypothesis-testing situations, we are

interested in comparing a population mean or

proportion to a specific null value. In many

research situations, we would like to know

something about the magnitude of the comparison.

The test statistic and p-value for a test are not

useful for this purpose because they depend on

the size of the sample.

17

Effect Size

Statistical Significance: Measures the likelihood

you could have gotten your results by random

chance. P-values and confidence intervals are

considered.

Practical Significance: Measures the likelihood

that the truth differs by chance. Effect size is

considered, removing sample size from

calculations.

18

Cohen's d

A common effect-size measure is

Cohen's d

standard deviation

Test Statistic

standard error

19

Cohen's d

The following table is somewhat arbitrary and

should only be used as a guideline of the effect

size.

Small 0.0 0.1 Not obvious without statistics

Modest 0.1 0.3 Obvious only to very careful observers

Moderate 0.3 0.5 Obvious to careful observers

Large > 0.5 Obvious to most observers

20

Example 11

Compare the significance and effect size for each

difference.

d = 0.4364 d = 0.0205

21

Hypotheses Testing Steps

1) State the null and alternate hypotheses (in

symbols)

2) Choose the significance level (default is = .05)

3) Choose the test and check the assumptions

4) Calculate the test statistic

5) Calculate the p-value

6) Compare the p-value to alpha

7) Write the decision (reject or fail to reject null)

8) Write a meaningful conclusion about the alternate

9) If null is rejected, then check the effect size

22

Example 12

Calculate and interpret the test statistic and effect size

for each test.

SE = 0.25

b) H0: p = 0.1 vs. Ha: p 0.1; p = 0.15, SD = 0.357,

SE = 0.0595

23

Example 13

In a recent year, of the 109,857 arrests for Federal

offenses, 29.1% were for drug offenses (based on

data from the U.S. Department of Justice). Test

the claim that the drug offense rate is equal to

30%. How can the result be explained, given that

29.1% appears to be so close to 30%?

24

Example 14

USA Today ran a report about a University of North

Carolina poll of 1248 adults from the Southern United

States. It was reported that 8% of those surveyed

believe that Elvis Presley still lives. The article began

with the claim that "almost 1 out of 10" Southerners

still thinks Elvis is alive. Test the claim that the true

percentage is less than 10%. Based on the result,

determine whether the 8% sample result justifies the

phrase "almost 1 out of 10."

Use p = 0.08, SD = 0.271, and SE = 0.00768.

25

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