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Forecasts as of

SC PE ECONOMIC SURVEY June 21, 2017

GROWTH JOBS INVESTMENT PRICES BUDGET RATES MARKETS TRADE


Australia China US World Australia Real net Household Probablity Jobless Housing Mining Non-mining Sydney Melbourne Consumer Underlying Wage price Underlying Reserve Bank Reserve Bank 10 year USD/AUD S&P/ASX 200 Iron ore Terms of trade Current
GDP GDP GDP GDP Nominal GDP disposable spending of recession rate invesment investment investment home prices home prices price index inflation index cash deficit cash rate cash rate gov bonds at at spot price change account deficit
2017-18 year to Dec year to Dec year to Dec 2017-18 income 2017-18 by June 2019 Jun 2018 2017-18 2017-18 2017-18 year to June year to June year to June year to June year to June 2017-18 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Jun 30, 2018 Jun 30, 2018 Jun 30, 2018 2017-18 year to June 2017-18
% % % % % per capita % % % % % % % % % % % $b % % % cents index $US % $b

MARKET ECONOMISTS MARKET ECONO-

Stephen Anthony Industry Super 2.25 6.3 2 3.3 2.75 2 1.8 50 6.25 -10 -18 0 5 -10 2.2 2 2 40 1.5 1 3.2 67 5000 40 -10 37 Stephen Anthony
Sally Auld JP Morgan 2.9 6.7 2.1 3.6 4.5 2.2 20 5.5 2.8 2.1 1.9 28 1.5 1 2.55 67 5800 65 -7.3 63.8 Sally Auld
David Bassanese BetaShares 2.5 6.7 2 3.7 3.5 2 2.5 30 6 0 -15 2.5 2.5 -2 1.75 1.75 2 35 1.5 1.5 2.75 68 6185 45 -7 45 David Bassanese
Paul Bloxham HSBC 3.4 6.6 2.4 3.4 5 2.7 20 5.3 1.4 5 3 2.5 2.4 2.7 29 1.5 1.75 2.15 75 50 -1.3 19 Paul Bloxham
Michael Blythe Commonwealth Bank 2.7 6.8 2 3.4 3.6 0.4 2.7 20 5.4 0.1 -14 0.5 2 2.1 2.5 27 1.5 1.5 2.8 78 6200 50 -3.2 32 Michael Blythe
Paul Dales Capital Economics 2.7 6.5 2.3 3.8 3 2.2 2.3 20 5.7 0.5 -5 0.5 1 1 1.9 1.9 2.1 32.5 1.5 1.5 3.1 70 6000 50 -4 19 Paul Dales
Besa Deda St George 2.7 6.6 2.2 3.5 3.9 3.9 2.4 10 5.7 -1.5 -22 4.4 4 3 2 1.9 2 28 1.5 1.5 2.9 76 5850 48 1 19.2 Besa Deda
Bill Evans Westpac 3 6.6 2.1 3.5 3.5 2.9 15 5.6 -1.7 -20 4.5 2 2.1 2 1.5 1.5 3.2 69 52 -5.5 Bill Evans
Shane Oliver AMP Capital 2.4 6.5 2.2 3.3 4.5 4.5 2.2 20 5.8 -0.5 -20 4 0 0 2 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 2.7 69 6000 55 -2.5 37 Shane Oliver
Su-Lin Ong RBC Capital Markets 2.8 6.5 2.3 3.6 3.8 2.3 15 5.5 -0.4 -8 4 2.7 1.8 1.9 30 1.5 1.25 3.5 72 65 -3.6 51 Su-Lin Ong
Alan Oster National Australia Bank 2.6 6.5 2.1 3.3 4 2.1 15 5.7 1.9 -8 6.4 3.3 3.8 2.2 1.9 2.1 29.4 1.5 1.5 3.05 70 6025 60 -2.2 43 Alan Oster
Richard Yetsenga ANZ Bank 2.4 6.5 2.2 3.7 3.3 2.2 10 5.7 -2.9 -15.4 7.4 2.3 1.9 2.2 32 1.5 1.5 3.5 73 72 -3.9 48 Richard Yetsenga

ACADEMIC ECONOMISTS ACADEMIC ECONOMISTS


Mardi Dungey University of Tasmania 2.75 6.9 1.8 3.5 2.75 5 5.6 2.5 -14 3 8 8 2.3 2.3 2 35 1.75 2 2.5 72 5900 55 -3 40 Mardi Dungey
Saul Eslake University of Tasmania 2.5 6.1 2.3 3.4 3.5 1 2 20 5.5 0.7 -10 3.3 3 2 2.8 2.5 2.3 32 1.5 1.75 3 70 50 -3.3 33 Saul Eslake
Renee Fry-McKibbin Australian National University 2 6.8 2.3 3 3.5 4 2.5 10 5.9 7 4 2 10 10 2.1 1.8 1.8 38 1.5 1.5 74 6100 60 2 30 Renee Fry-McKibbin
Steve Keen Kingston University, London -1 6.5 2 3 1 -2 -1 100 7 -3 -12 -2 -5 -7 2 1.5 1.5 50 1.5 1 2 65 5000 45 -4 20 Steve Keen
Guay Lim Melbourne Institute 2.6 6.5 2.2 3.5 3.8 2.7 10 5.5 0.5 -10 3 3 4 2.3 2 2.1 30 1.5 1.5 2.6 73 52 -3 25 Guay Lim
Jakob Madsen Monash University 2 7.3 2.5 3.4 4 0.5 3 30 5.7 7 -14 0 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.8 58 1.5 1.5 3.1 75 5700 80 0 40 Jakob Madsen
Bill Mitchell University of Newcastle 2.1 6.5 1.2 3.2 4.1 2 2.1 40 6.1 1 -10 0.5 9 10 2 2 1.4 38 1.5 1.5 2.2 72 51 2 30 Bill Mitchell
Neville Norman University of Melbourne 2.2 7.4 2.1 3.4 4.2 3.8 2.55 2 5.75 3.1 -9 4 8.4 9.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 39 1.75 2.25 2.8 74 6150 79 -1.75 39 Neville Norman

CONSULTANTS CONSULTANTS
Nicki Hutley Urbis Consulting 2.2 6.5 2.3 3.4 3.7 0 2.2 20 5.5 -4.9 -12 4.5 -2 -4 2.5 2.4 2 32 1.5 1.5 2.6 74 -3.5 19.5 Nicki Hutley
Stephen Koukoulas Market Economics 2.25 6.7 2.7 3.7 3 1.5 2 1 6.2 -2 -5 6 -4 -4 3 1.9 2 33 1.25 0.75 2.1 65 5900 65 -1 20 Stephen Koukoulas
Richard Robinson BIS Oxford Economics 2.9 6.6 2.2 3.7 4.1 1.6 2.4 10 6 2.1 -13.4 6.5 -1.7 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.4 1.5 1.5 2.8 73 50 -5.7 31 Richard Robinson

INDUSTRY ECONOMISTS INDUSTRY ECONOMISTS


Shane Garrett Housing Industry Association 2.3 6.1 2.3 3.4 4.6 2.6 15 5.9 -0.8 -16 2 3.5 3 2.3 2.1 2.4 30 1.5 1.75 69 5525 73 Shane Garrett
Margaret McKenzie ACTU 2 6 1.4 3.4 4.2 3 2.6 10 5.7 1.8 -5 10 10 8 2.2 1.9 1.7 35 1.5 1.5 3 80 5990 80 5 15 Margaret McKenzie
Julie Toth Australian Industry Group 2.5 6.5 1.5 3.5 4 2 2.5 10 5.5 1 -10 2 2.25 2 2.5 35 1.5 1.5 73.5 45 -5 Julie Toth

Low -1 6.0 1.2 3 1 -2 -1 1 5.3 -10 -22 -2 -5 -10 1.5 1.5 1.4 27 1.25 0.75 2 65 5000 40 -10 15 Low
High 3.4 7.4 2.7 3.8 5 4.5 3 100 7 7 4 10 10 10 3 2.5 2.7 58 1.75 2.25 3.5 80 6200 80 5 63.8 High
AVERAGE 2.4 6.6 2.1 3.4 3.7 1.9 2.3 21 5.8 0.2 -11.7 3.3 3.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.1 34.6 1.5 1.5 2.8 71.7 5833 57.5 -2.8 32.9 AVERAGE