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Pipeline Conference

The 8th International Pipeline ConferenceIPC2010

September 27-October1,

September 2010,1,

27-October Calgary, Alberta,Alberta,

2010, Calgary, CanadaCanada

IPC2010-31043

IPC2010-0

ON NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Bing Han Jianbin Hao

PetroChina Pipeline R&D Center School of Petroleum Engineering

Langfang, Hebei, China Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan,China

PetroChina Pipeline R&D Center

Langfang, Hebei, China

PetroChina Pipeline R&D Center PetroChina Pipeline R&D Center PetroChina Pipeline R&D Center

Langfang, Hebei, China Langfang, Hebei, China Langfang, Hebei, China

The integrity of oil and gas pipelines is seriously impacted pipelines in western China, such as the Lanchengyu, Zhongwu

by landslides in tough terrain in western China. The and Seninglan pipelines etc., were inevitably laid through tough

quantitative assessment technology is an effective method for terrain and the cases of oil and gas pipeline damage caused by

pipelines risk management under threat of geohazard. In order landslides are common in mountainous regions. If the

to establish the vulnerability assessment indexes system of geological conditions of mountain slopes were changed due to

pipelines subjected to landslides, the numerical simulation the influence of external environment and artificial disturbance

based on the finite element method is adopted to study the caused by pipelines laying, they will tend to be unstable and

pipeline axial stresses. There are five kinds of calculation may pose a significant threat to pipeline integrity[1-3]. At present

schemes considered by changing the geometrical sizes and the study on pipeline geohazards is mostly focused on the

inclination angles of landslide, the pipeline length passing deformation monitoring and treatment for geohazard body, and

through landslide and buried depth of pipeline, and the axial there are few discussions about the state of pipeline stresses

stresses and bending moments of pipeline can be obtained by under the external forces caused by soil movement. In order to

means of numerical simulation for different calculation ensure the safety of the buried pipelines which passing through

conditions under the every kind of scheme. In the study, active or potential landslides, we should pay attention to

regression analysis method is used to derive the axial stress studying the computing formula of pipe stress while strengthen

equation of pipeline from calculation results of numerical the deformation monitoring for pipelines, these will help us

simulation by taking into consideration the above five indexes. improve and enhance the theoretical level of deformation

The feasibility and practicality of this equation are verified by monitoring and preventing failure of pipelines.

the given example of a pipeline passing through a certain In this paper, a solving method of axial stress on the basis

landslide in southwest China. The comparison analysis between of numerical simulation and regression analysis for the

the monitoring data and calculation results shows that the pipelines affected by landslides is introduced. The change

calculation values agree well with the monitoring data of regularity of pipe stresses is analyzed by means of numerical

pipeline axial stresses. simulation for the five vulnerability assessment indexes,

Key words: landslide; pipeline; stress analysis; numerical simulation; including the distance between pipeline and landslide tail,

regression analysis thickness and inclination angle of landslide, pipeline length

passing through landslide and buried depth of pipeline, the

INTRODUCTION axial stress equation of pipe is derived from calculation results

With Chinese economy on fast track, more and more long by regression analysis. The application of this method to a

distance oil and gas pipelines have being constructed in China. pipeline passing through a certain landslide is also introduced

As being 2/3 mountainous region out of a total 9.6 million km2 and its effectiveness is discussed.

area, China is one of the countries in the world seriously

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE VULNERABILITY Calculation schemes and results

ASSESSMENT INDEXES In this paper, the numerical simulation focuses on the

vulnerability assessment indexes of pipeline subjected to

Calculation model landslide, including D, the distance between pipeline and

The calculation model can be established by applying landslide tail, T, the thickness of landslide, , the inclination

generalizability theory to typical landslide characteristics. The angle of landslide, L, the pipeline length passing through

mountain model is 100 meters long along axial direction of landslide, H, the buried depth of pipeline. There are four kinds

pipeline, the foreside and tail of mountain model are 15 meters of calculation schemes designed for the indexes D, L, T and H

and 28 meters high respectively, the distance between them is by only changing one of the four indexes while keeping the

80m. The bottom face of model is fixed in the x, y, z-directions, other three ones constant, and the influence regularity of the

and the side faces are fixed in normal direction. The slope variation indexes on the axial stresses of pipe can be studied.

angle of model, geometrical sizes of slip mass and buried depth There are five different calculation conditions considered for

of pipeline are different with calculation conditions. The each kind of scheme, four varied inclination angles of landslide

geometrical model and mesh generation diagram of finite for each calculation condition, and 80(4 5 4) times

element are presented in figure 1. The elastoplastic model and calculations carried out in total. The table 2 shows the total

Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion are adopted in the study [4]. calculation schemes of the numerical simulation.

D L T H

D L T H

20 25 23 25

28 30 25 28

20m 15m 3m 1m

35 33 27 33

Figure1. The calculation model of pipeline passing through a

landslide 39 35 32 37

20 25 20 25

The mechanical parameters for geotechnical materials and

pipe are given based on borehole sample data in situ, laboratory 25 28 25 28

30m 20m 5m 1.5m

test on rock and soil mass and some interrelated specifications 30 33 28 33

and manuals, and they are listed in table 1.

36 36 33 36

Table 1. The mechanical parameters for geotechnical materials 20 22 22 22

and pipe

25 27 25 27

sorts bed slip slip 40m 25m 10m 2m

pipe 30 31 28 32

parameters rock surface mass

35 35 33 34

Poissons Ratio 0.23 0.35 0.33 0.28 18 20 18 20

23 25 22 25

elastic modulus 50m 30m 12m 2.5m

22 0.05 0.20 210 28 28 25 28

(GPa)

31 33 31 31

unit weight (KN/m3) 3200 1880 2070 7800 16 20 18 20

20 23 22 23

internal friction angle 60m 40m 15m 3m

46 15 25 - 24 28 25 26

(degree)

31 33 32 31

cohesion (MPa) 1.1 0.02 0.08 -

The axial stress contour maps of pipeline subjected to

landslide with the five vulnerability assessment indexes are

tensile strength(MPa) 1 0 0 360 presented in the figure 2.

.800E-03 .008092 .015384 .022676 .029967

.593E-04 .227E-03 .395E-03 .562E-03 .730E-03 .004446 .011738 .01903 .026322 .03

.143E-03 .311E-03 .478E-03 .646E-03 .81

(a) (e)

.523E-03 .611E-03 .698E-03 .786E-03 .873E-03 .673E-03 .006417 .012161 .017905 .023649

.567E-03 .654E-03 .742E-03 .829E-03 .917E- .003545 .009289 .015033 .020777 .02

(b) (f)

Figure 2. The axial stress contour maps of pipeline

Where

(a) D=20m, L=15m, T=3m, H=1m, =20

(b) D=20m, L=15m, T=3m, H=1m, =25

(c) D=40m, L=15m, T=3m, H=1m, =25

(d) D=40m, L=25m, T=3m, H=1m, =25

(e) D=40m, L=25m, T=10m, H=1m, =25

(f) D=40m, L=25m, T=10m, H=2m, =25

PIPE

.253E-03 .002436 .00462 .006803 .008986

.001345 .003528 .005711 .007895 .010078

According to the theory of materials mechanics, we have

Mzy

x = (1)

Iz

Where

(R 4 r 4 )

Iz =

64

R

y=

2

x , axial stress

.398E-03 .004554 .00871 .012866 .017022

.002476 .006632

(d)

.010788 .014944 .01

M z , bending moment

I z , moment of inertia 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 a 3 b 2

Mc = ax bx cx + ( l + l + cl ) x

R , outside diameter 12 6 2 2 3 2

r , inside diameter (5)

The x can be obtained by means of numerical simulation, According to functional equation of external force, the

so the M z can be gotten. bending moment Mc of any position of pipeline can be

The calculation of external forces by bending moment obtained. In order to easily make certain the functional relation

First we assume that the external forces caused by between q and each index and reduce the quantity of

landslide applied to pipeline are uniformly distributed along the calculation, letting a = - 1 , t h e n b = l, combining Eqs. (1) and

axial direction of pipeline in a parabolic shape[5], as seen in the (5), letting M z = M c , the functional relation between constant c

figure 3, the coordinate system can be established by selecting and the five indexes can be determined by means of regression

any x-section, as follows: analysis[6]. Figure 4 shows the regression analysis curves for

diverse in the case of D=20m, L=15m, T=3m, H=1m.

Mz =20simulation data

=20regression curve

10 =28simulation data

=28regression curve

9 =35simulation data

=35regression curve

8 =39simulation data

=39regression curve

7

6

(a) 5

4

3

2

1

0 x

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Figure. 4 The regression analysis curves of c for diverse

vulnerability assessment indexes of pipeline subjected to

(b)

landslide, including D, L, T, H and , can be determined by

Figure. 3 The distribution shape of external forces acting on a pipe

regression analysis to each index, as follows:

3.04

C D = 3.65( e 0.36 D )

The external forces caused by landslide applied to pipeline

are assumed symmetrical, and then the reaction support of the

end is a half of composition of external forces, as follows:

C L = 42.85( L )12.68

1 l

2 0

F1 = f ( x)dx e

(2)

(6)

CT = 27.05( 0.5T ) 7.54

According to F y = 0 , the shear force Q of any x-section e

may be obtained, as follows: 2.61

x

Q = F1 f ( x)dx (3) C H = 105.33( e 0.17 H )

0

The correlation between c and the five indexes is good

To make the support as a centre of moment, the bending

when using the power exponent expression, as follows:

moment M in any x-section can be obtained according to

M = 0 , as follows: c = a( f ( , )) b

x Where

M c = Qx + f ( x)dx (4) a and b are constants;

0

In order to simplify calculation, we determine the acting = ( D , or L , or T , or H )

force q in a parabolic shape as shown in figure 3. If making The total fitting equation can be obtained by taking into

q = a x 2 + b x + c , the bending moment Mc in any x-section can be account these five indexes as a whole, as follows:

obtained after substitution of Eqs. (2) and (3) into Eq. (4) and

1.96( )

simplification, as follows: c = 2.88 e e ( 0.36 D + L + 0.5T + 0.17 H )

(7)

The figure 5 shows the relation equation of c and the five

indexes, D, L, T, H, and . After substitution of Eqs. (5) and (7)

in Eq. (1), the axial stress equation of pipe can be obtained, as

follows:

x =

[ (

R x 4 2 Lx 3 6cx 2 + L3 + 6cL x )] (8)

24 I z

150

135

120

c=2.88e1.96x

105

90

(b) 2-2 section

Figure. 6 The engineering geologic profile of a certain landslide

75

c

60

45

The landslide develops in covering layer and belongs to

30

soil landslide. The slip surface shape of landslide is similar to

simulation data

15

arc, but it can also be approximately considered as two parts

regression curve

0

including the reverse curved section for tail and the straight

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 section for foreside, and the slope surface is approximately

x=/e(0.36D+L+0.5T+0.17H) parallel with the slip surface. The pipeline is laid through the

shear zone in the front of landslide and it will be extruded and

Figure. 5 The relation curve of c and the five indexes deform if the further movement of landslide happens.

The pipeline is X60 line pipe, the outside diameter is

VERIFICATION BY AN EXAMPLE 508mm, the wall thickness is 7.1mm, and the average buried

In order to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the depth of pipeline is about 1 meter.

above method based on numerical simulation and regression By using the established method on the basis of the

analysis, a pipeline passing through a certain landslide in vulnerability assessment indexes of pipeline subjected to

southwest China is selected as an example. The slip mass of landslide, we can calculate the axial stress of any point on

this landslide is about 50 meters long, 20 meters wide, 5 meters pipeline, and the maximum value is 59.5MPa. Meanwhile, we

deep in average, and its foreside and tail are 202 meters and have also applied the Fiber Bragg grating sensors to monitor

220 meters high respectively. The primary slip direction of the pipeline stresses, and the maximum value is 46.6MPa

landslide is 32 degree. According to the data by means of according to the monitoring data. The maximum stress obtained

borehole, exploratory well and survey of ground deformation, by means of the theoretical calculation is 78.32 percent the

we can draft the engineering geologic profile of the landslide, same as the value acquired from monitoring data. The figure 7

as shown in the figure 6. shows the axial stresses of diverse points on pipeline obtained

by means of theoretical calculation and monitoring two

different methods. The comparison between them shows that

the calculation values agree well with the monitoring data of

pipe axial stresses.

70

monitoring data

60

calculating data

50

40

(MPa)

30

10

0

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

x(m)

monitoring data of pipe axial stresses

ground subsidence, Proceedings of the International Pipeline

Conference, IPC1998, Vol 2, pp749-756

CONCLUDING REMARKS

y The verification results by an example show that the

established calculation method of axial stresses of pipeline

subjected to landslide by means of numerical simulation

and regression analysis has a preferable practical

applicability, but this method still needs large numbers of

examples to further verify the efficacy and reliability, and

it should be modified according to the varied verification

results.

y It is a primary concern that the axial stresses of pipeline

subjected to landslide, so we take no account of the effect

of the internal pressure on axial stresses of pipeline in the

numerical simulation. In fact, the operation pressure of

pipeline is relatively small compared with the external

forces caused by soil movement of landslide if the internal

pressure is regarded as 10MPa, and it can be ignored to

the effect of internal pressure on the calculation results of

axial stresses of pipeline subjected to landslide without

considering of pressure fluctuation.

y In this paper, we consider only the stress characteristics

under the circumstances that the axial direction of pipeline

is vertical to the primary slip direction of landslide. In

fact, the laying way and trend of pipeline which passing

through landslide have significant effect on the

calculation results of axial stresses of pipeline, so it is

important that we should further carry out the research on

stress characteristics under the circumstances that the

axial direction of pipeline is parallel to the primary slip

direction of landslide, or there is an angle between with

them.

REFERENCES

[1] Limura S. Simplified mechanical model for evaluating

stress in pipeline subject to settlement. Construction and

BuildingMaterials, 2004, 18(6): 469-479.

[2] J. F. Kiefner,J. M. Tuten, T. A. Wall. Preventing Pipeline

Failures In Areas of Soil Movement Part 1,State of The

Art A Report Of 1985 Activities, Report to the Pipe

Research Supervisory Committee of Pipeline Research

Council International, Inc.

[3] Bukovansky M, Greenwood JH, Major G. Maintaining

natural gas pipeline in active landslides, In: Proceedings

of the first international conference of advances in

underground pipe engineering. ASCE; 1985. pp. 438-48.

[4] N. Challamel, P. de Buhan. Mixed modelling applied to

soil-pipe interaction, Computers and Geotechnics,

2003(30):205-216

[5] Peijun Guo(2005), Numeircal Modelling of Pipe-Soil

Interaction under Oblique Loading, Journal of

Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,Vol.131,

pp260-268

[6] Kim, Hyoung-Sik, Kim, Woo-Sik, Bang, In-Wan, et all (1998).

Analysis of stresses on buried natural gas pipeline subjected to

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