Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.

ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine covers over 5,000 stocks every day. A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks, and commentary can be found HERE.

August 4, 2010 – The Daily Charts for Crude Oil, Euro and the Dow are Overbought The yield on the 10-Year note is between my annual pivot at 2.999 and my annual risky level at 2.813. My weekly risky level at 2.882 was tested this morning. Gold is approaching my weekly risky level at $1203.1 as expected. Crude oil is above monthly and annual pivots at $80.02 and $77.05, but daily MOJO is overbought. My weekly risky level at $82.64 was tested on Tuesday. For the euro my daily risky level at 1.3256 was tested on Tuesday. My weekly risky level looms at 1.3349 on an overbought euro. The Dow is overbought with my semiannual pivot at 10,558 and today’s resistance at 10,759. The proposed $30 billion Mini-TARP for community banks will just cost more tax payer money will little help to small business on Main Street, USA. I will be covering the banking system among other subjects at my presentation in NYC on Monday, August 9th at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM. 10-Year Note – (2.912) This yield continued to trade between my annual pivot at 2.999 and my annual risky level at 2.813. My daily value level is $3.010 with my annual pivot at 2.999 and weekly risky level at 2.882. Semiannual and monthly value levels are 3.479 and 3.601 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – ($1187.10) Daily, quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are $1159.8, $1140.9, $1133.2 and $1115.2 with weekly, semiannual, weekly and semiannual risky levels at $1203.1, $1218.7, and $1260.8. Note the importance of holding the 200-day simple moving average at $1146.5.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – ($82.35) Daily, monthly and annual pivots are $77.05, $80.10 and $80.02 with weekly and semiannual risky levels at $82.64 and $83.94. My quarterly value level is $56.63.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – (1.3230) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1486 and 1.1424 with daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3256, 1.3349 and 1.4733.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (10,636) My annual pivot is 10,379 with monthly, weekly and semiannual pivots at 10,439, 10545 and 10,558, and daily risky level at 10,759. My quarterly value level is 7,812 with my annual risky level at 11,235, which was tested at the April 26th high at 11,258. This test marked the end of the bear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-year bear market that began in October 2007 targeting 8,500 before 11,500.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

A $30 billion Mini-TARP for Community Banks - As we already painfully know, giving TARP money to specific community banks will not work. The money will not lead to increased lending, but will merely be a slush fund for political favors. Many banks that need additional capital are too far gone and should be closed on Bank Failure Friday, rather than being propped up by tax payer funds. The overall network of community banks needs help and that help should be a program designed to find incentives for private capital to invest in banks that are deemed borderline Bank Failure Friday victims. If the FDIC had additional funding they could bolster the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) and suspend bank assessments for community banks under a total asset threshold. About 700 community banks already received money through the $700 billion TARP and lending to small businesses did not pick up. Money was given too many banks that were overexposed to construction and development loans, and odds are the $30 billion Mini-TARP will meet the same fate. There are 91 banks that received TARP that are not making their dividend payments due to lack of capital. What we need is a Troubled Asset Relief Program to establish markets for toxic assets so that troubled banks can remove bad loans from their balance sheets. Finding viable community banks that did not take TARP and are not overexposed to C&D and CRE loans and do not have a funded pipeline less than 80% is no easy task. Richard Suttmeier Presentation – Monday, August 9, 2010: I will be the speaker at the Market Technicians Association Meeting to be held at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM on Monday, August 9, 2010. • Home Prices are Set to Fall to the Levels of 1999 / 2000 • Community Banks remain Vulnerable for Failure • US Stocks have begun the Second Leg of a Multi-Year Bear Market • "Buy and Trade' Replaces "Buy and Hold" To attend please reply to rsuttmeier@gmail.com and include: first and last name, company name, address, email and phone number so that you can be pre-registered into the Bloomberg security systems for this event. That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day. Richard Suttmeier Chief Market Strategist www.ValuEngine.com (800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sample issues of my research. “I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”