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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.

edu>
Senttime: 03/28/201610:16:54AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:RussianFARMERSfromninedistrrictsofKRANODARKRAItodaybegandrivingtheirtractorstoMoscowinaprotestaction:
Subject:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/72407.html

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,March28,201610:17AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:RussianFARMERSfromninedistrrictsofKRANODARKRAItodaybegandrivingtheirtractorstoMoscowinaprotestaction:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/72407.html

FarmerVasiliiMelnichenko:ItappearsthatRussiaisintheprocessofreturningtoSERFDOM.

And:PutinfacesINFORMATIONATTACKonwealth,friends,Russiasays,Bloomberg.com,3/28

TheInternationalConsortiumofInvestigativejournalistsisseekingcommentondozensofquestions
concerningPutinpersonallyaswellasinformationabouthisfamily,childhoodfriends,andbusiness
alliesincludingYuriKovalchukandArkadyRotenberg,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovtold
reportersonaconferencecallMonday.

And:InRussia,anoutspokenpriest[ArchpreistVsevolodCHAPLIN]fallsfromgrace,
http://www.erferl.org/articleprintvew/27639946.html

IninterviewsonMarch4andMarch15,he[Chaplin]accusedKIRILLofnotstandinguptothe
authorities,suggestingthatthepatriarchisimbuedwiththeSovietcultureofCOLLUSIONbetween
stateandchurchwiththeformerfirmlyincontrol.

And:[Ella]PAMFILOVA[newheadoftheRussianCentralElectionCommission]hasannounced
cardinalchanges,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1701790.html?print=1

And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKIIonthenuclearpokerbeingconductedbyPutinandGeneralNikolai
PATRUSHEV:http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27633151.html

And:FormerCIAchief[Michael]Hayden:ClintonisbetterpreparedthanincoherentTrump,
politico.edu,3/28

And:HistorianAndreiZUBOVisacandidateinthe2016Dumaelections:
http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27638205.html

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/10/201606:40:40AM
To: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:AretheRussiansactuallybehindthePanamaPapers?|BrookingsInstitution

http://observer.com/2016/04/panama-papers-reveal-clintons-kremlin-connection/

OnApr10,2016,at7:23AM,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:PHILIPHANSON<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>
Date:10April201620:06:24AEST
To:BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,wilsonkyle81@gmail.com,rqbraithwaite@mac.com
Cc:bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk,teagueeliza@aol.com,segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de,
john.besemeres@anu.edu.au,silvana.malle@univr.it,ErcFried@aol.com,siriolhj@yahoo.co.uk,
j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk,r.connolly@bham.ac.uk,s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au,
carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se,rodericlyne@hotmail.com,keith.bush017@gmail.com,
rghorvath@yahoo.com,phil_hanson@btinternet.com
Subject:Re:AretheRussiansactuallybehindthePanamaPapers?|BrookingsInstitution
Reply-To:phill_hanson@outlook.com

OnCliffGaddy'sinterpretationI'minclinedtoagreewiththesceptics.Onepointtoadd:Gaddy
suggestsakeyrolemaybeplayedbyRosfinmonitoring,thePutin-controlledmonitoroffinancialflowsin
(andpresumablyfromandbackinto)Russia.ThisistheentitythatGaddyandBarryIckesidentifyas
thekeytoPutin'scontroloftheoligarchs(CliffordG.GaddyandBarryW.Ickes,'Putin'sProtection
Racket,'inIikkaKorhonenandLauraSolanko(eds),FromSovietPlanstoRussianReality,Helsinki:
WSOYproOy,2010:109-24).Thatwasabitofastretch,andthisenhancedroleintheCaribbeanfor
Rosfinmonitoringisastretchofastretch.

Phil

ProfessorPhilipHansonOBE
AssociateFellow,RussiaandEurasiaProgramme
ChathamHouse
RoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairs

phone:+44-(0)1306-255703

----Originalmessage----
From:bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk
Date:09/04/2016-09:52(GMTDT)
To:rqbraithwaite@mac.com,wilsonkyle81@gmail.com
Cc:rghorvath@yahoo.com,carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se,j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk,
teagueeliza@aol.com,r.connolly@bham.ac.uk,keith.bush017@gmail.com,
phil_hanson@btinternet.com,john.besemeres@anu.edu.au,segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de,
ErcFried@aol.com,s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au,silvana.malle@univr.it,rodericlyne@hotmail.com,
bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk,siriolhj@yahoo.co.uk
Subject:Re:AretheRussiansactuallybehindthePanamaPapers?|BrookingsInstitution

SomeofwhatCliffwritesisinteresting,butmuchofitisprettyfar-fetchedandconvoluted.Theinference
thattheKremlinmaybeusingthescandaltoleveragetheAmericansintoamoreaccommodating
approachisaverybigstretch.Andifitdoesbelievethat,thenitisevenmoredeludedthanIhadthought.

WhatIfindamusing,althoughnotsurprising,isjusthownarcissistictheRussianofficialreactionhas
been.Forgetaboutthecarnageelsewhere,it'sallaplottodiscreditPutin!

Bobo

OnSaturday,9April2016,9:34,RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>wrote:

Interestingbutnotentirelyconvincing.

TheabsenceofAmericannamesisstrikingandveryodd(unlessyoubelievethat
Americans,unliketherestofus,dontgoinforthisoffshorestuff).Butitssurelyatleast
aslikelythatAmericannamesweredeletedbytheInternationalConsortiumof
InvestigativeJournalists,asGaddysuggestsratherthanthattheyweredeletedaspartof
aconvolutedRussianblackmailplot.

On9Apr2016,at08:58,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/04/07-
panama-papers-putin-gaddy#.Vwhs4NU5Uyc.facebook

SentfrommyiPad
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/09/201601:43:18AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: TedCruz:amanastalentedasheisdespised|ProspectMagazinetannehausisasmartguy

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/ted-cruz-talented-despised-wisconsin-trump

TedCruz:amanastalentedasheisdespised

RepublicanpresidentialcandidateTedCruzafterwinningtheWisconsinPrimaryon5thApril,2016.Tohis
rightishiswife,Heidi,tohisleftisWisconsinGovernorScottWalkerReiriKurihara/AP/Press
AssociationImages

Readmore:WhatwouldTrumpdo?

Forweeks,allpoliticaleyeshadbeentrainedonWisconsinanditsimportantprimaryon5thApril.Inapresidentialseason
thathasgonefrommarathontocarouselcompletewithtinnysoundtrack,Wisconsinofferedgravity,areturntothesolid
groundofpragmatichigh-informationvoters.Intherun-up,therewasmuchpraiseforWisconsinitesrefreshing
nicenessandcivilitydemonstratedevenbytalk-radiointerrogators.Infactthestate,forallitswonderlandsplendours
ofpineforestsandGreatLakes,isalsothehomeoftwogreatriveringstrainsofAmericanideologythefirstpersonified
byRobertM.LaFollette,theprolaborProgressivewhomountedathird-partycampaignforpresidentin1924andgotan
impressivefivemillionvotestheseconddarklyembodiedinthecoldwardemagogueryofJosephMcCarthywithhiscry
twentyyearsoftreasondirectedatDemocratsinthe1950s.

Insum,theidealvenueforthecampaignstworemainingheart-on-sleeve,high-dudgeonideologuesBernieSandersforthe
DemocratsandTedCruzfortheRepublicans.Sanders,heirtoFightingBobLaFollette,cameintothestatehoarsely
declaringwaronWallStreetbillionairesandwasgreetedbyrapturouscrowdsinMadison,thestatecapitalandsiteofthe
UniversityofWisconsin,thesuperbland-grantinstitution.Cruz,atechnicianofMcCarthy-styleattackonthetraitorous
Washingtoncabalbywhichhemeanslawmakersinbothpartiesrummagedforvotesintheconservativesuburbsof
Milwaukee,withitsenclavesofevangelicalswhoseloveofGodismatchedbytheirfearofSatanicbiggovernment.

Bothmensucceeded,inflictingdamageonthefront-runningcandidaciesnowwobblinglikestruckten-pins.Despite
repeateddefeats,HillaryClintonisfaraheadinthedelegatecountandisalmostcertaintogetherpartysnomination.Still,
Sandershasforcedherintoaprolongedfightonhispopulistterms.TheelderstateswomanoftheObamaadministration
nowrecitesherprogressivebonafidesandhasshedthemantleofherhusbandscentristpresidency.
ForCruz,victorycomeswrappedinbitterirony.HehasatlastbecomethesolepaladinoftheNeverTrump
Movement,butpartyeldersandwealthydonorsdetesthimtheyhavesimplymadethecoldcalculationthatheisbest
positionedtoblockTrumpfromgettingthe1,237delegatesheneedsifheistoendthecontestbeforethepartys
conventioninmid-July.StoppingTrumpwontgiveCruzthenomination.Onthecontrary,atanopenconventionbrokers
couldanointamorepalatablealternative,likeWisconsinsownPaulRyan,theSpeakeroftheHousewholatelyhasaffected
theposeofastatesmansadlygazingdownattheuglyanddivisivescrumbelow.

ButCruzhasdefeatedtheoddsbefore.HehasbeenantagonizingotherRepublicansformuchofhiscareerandstillkeeps
rising,inpartbecauseheisprodigiouslyintelligentquitepossiblythecleverestcandidateinthefield,Democrator
Republican.Foraprofilepublishedin2014,TheNewYorkerslegalwriterJeffreyToobinreadoneofCruzsstudentpapers
atPrincetonitwasontheConstitutionandreportedtheleveloferudition...isextraordinary,especiallyforatwenty-
one-year-oldwhohadnotyetgonetolawschool.LaterCruzdidstudylaw,atHarvard,dazzlinghisprofessors.Hethen
becameperhapsthefinestappellatelawyerofhisgeneration,repeatedlyarguingandwinningcasesattheverytoplevelthe
SupremeCourt.

Atthesametime,Cruzisattunedtothedown-marketretailpoliticsofthecurrentmoment.Agoodexampleistheepisode
thatmadehimfamous(ornotorious),thegovernmentshutdownheorchestratedin2013,whenhehadbeenintheSenate
lessthanayear.HisstatedmissionwastodefundObamacare,whichhenowpromisestorevoketheinstanthetakes
office.EveryotherRepublicanhassaidthesamething.ButwhilecandidateslikeJebBushandMarcoRubiooffered
replacementpoliciestoprotectthe20millioncitizenswhowouldlosetheirinsurance,Teddoesnthaveahealthcare
policy,saysRameshPonnuru,theBloombergandNationalReviewcolumnist,whohasknownCruzformanyyearscalls
himafriend.Hehasthreetalkingpoints,buthehasntputaplanout.Thegreatargumentthatsalwaysmadeabout
Republicans,thattheyfulminateaboutObamacarebutdonthaveaplan,isexemplifiedbyTed.

AllthisinfuriatesotherRepublicans.SodoesCruzshabitofdenouncingseniorcolleagues.IfyoukilledTedCruzonthe
flooroftheSenate,andthetrialwasintheSenate,nobodywouldconvictyou,LindseyGraham,ofSouthCarolina,has
said.YetGrahamisnowfund-raisingforCruz.RossDouthat,theconservativeNewYorkTimescolumnist,haslikenedCruz
toKennethWidmerpool,theservileopportunistinAnthonyPowellscycleofnovels,ADancetotheMusicofTime,who
climbseverclosertopower,incurringscornateverystage.OnedifferenceisthatCruzpossessesgenuinewitand
cheerfullyacceptshowlittlelovedheis.Inarecentlate-nightTVappearance,hewasteasedbyhishost,thecomedian
JimmyKimmel,whosaidofCruzslate-bloomingsuccesswithvotersturningagainstTrump,Youkindofheldoutuntil
theyfoundsomeonethattheylikedlessthanyou.Cruz,grinningthroughthelaughter,replied,Thereyougo.Itisa
powerfulstrategy.

Nowread:HowtheRepublicanscouldstopDonaldTrump
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/14/201612:47:18PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: WilltheLeftTurnonHamilton?-TheAmericanInterest

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/04/14/will-the-left-turn-on-hamilton/

WilltheLeftTurnonHamilton?
Hamilton,LinManuelMirandascatchymusicalportraitofthelifeandtimesoftheLittleLion,hascaptivatedAmericas
progressiveelitesformonths.ButonsomequartersoftheLeft,dissentisbrewing,accordingtoarecentNewYork
Timesreport(HamiltonandHistory:AreTheyinSync?):

[E]venamonghistorianswholovethemusicalanditsmultiethniccast,aquestionhasalsoquietlysimmered:
doesHamiltonreallygetHamiltonright?

Inarticles,blogpostsandFacebookthreads,scholarshavedebatedwhetherHamiltonover-glorifiesthe
man,inflatinghisoppositiontoslaverywhileglossingoverlessattractiveaspectsofhispolitics,whichwere
notnecessarilyasintunewithcontemporaryprogressivevaluesasaudiencesleavingthetheatermight
assume.

Theconversationhasyettoeruptintoafull-fledgedhistoriansrapbattle.Butsomescholarsarewonderingif
oneisduetostart.

ThereisalottounpackintheTimesairingofgrievancesagainsttheshow.FirstofallasmanyexasperatedTimesreaders
havepointedoutofcourseHamiltonisnotaperfecttranscriptionofhistoryBroadwaymusicalsrarelyare.Mirandas
prioritywastoentertainhisaudiences,generateinterestinoneofthemostimpressiveAmericanswhoeverlived,and
highlightourcountryshistoryofraucouspluralism.Ifviewerswantedadetailedandscholarlyexaminationofthemanand
theeraheshaped,theycouldalwaysreadRonChernowsAlexanderHamiltonthemagisterialbiographyfromwhich
Mirandafamouslydrewhisinspiration.Andmanynodoubtwill,eventhoughoneoftheplayscriticsquotedintheTimes
haselsewheredismissedChernowasaprototypicalwhitehistorian.

Itsalsoatleastsomewhatironicthatthesamepeopletut-tuttingthemusicalsallegedhistoricalinaccuracieshaveno
objectiontothemostsalientandinnovativehistoricalinaccuracyofall:thatAmericasuniformlywhite,aristocratic
classoffoundersisrepresentedbyamultiethniccastfluentinhip-hop.

Moreinteresting,though,arethepoliticsunderlyingtheHamiltoncrazeamongwealthysocialliberals.Whileitsriskytotry
totransposeany18th-centuryfiguresviewsonto21st-centurypoliticaldebates,itsclearthatHamiltonswereintension
withmanyoftheofficialtenetsofthemodernDemocraticParty:AmericasfirstTreasurySecretarywasanunapologetic
nationalist,astaunchallyofbusinessinterests,andaninstinctivedefenderofestablishedordersandhierarchies.Tobesure,
therearealsoaspectsofHamiltonianismthatwouldtodaybecodedasleft-ofcenter,suchashisrelativelyforward-looking
viewsonraceandhissupportforastrongandactivefederalgovernment.Butfewhistorianswoulddenythat
Hamiltonsimpulsesonimportantquestionswerereliablyanti-egalitarian,and,intheBurkeansense,conservative.Indeed,as
aoneofthemostoutspokenopponentsoftheFrenchRevolutiononthissideoftheAtlantic,onemightsayhewas
areactionary,intheoriginalsenseoftheterm.

Givenallthis,therealquestionisnotwhysomeelementsoftheLeftarejustnowstartingtocriticizeHamilton,butwhythe
liberalestablishmentcelebratedtheshowsoenthusiasticallyinthefirstplace.Perhapsthemultiethniccasting,non-traditional
presentationandcome-from-behindmessageissufficienttomakeWashingtonsright-handmanfeelprogressiveto
Broadwayaudiencesorperhapspoliticshasnotplayedamajorroleinpropellingtheshowspopularity.

Butpoliticsprobablyareinthemix,andAlexanderHamiltonis,inasense,asafechoiceforliberalelitesintheageof
Obamatolatchonto.ThepeoplewhoruntodaysDemocraticPartyaremorebusiness-friendly,moretechnocratic,and
morecomfortablewithclassinequalitiesthantheir20th-centurypredecessors,andtheirrainbow-coalitionliberalismoften
focusesmoreonissuesofraceandcultureandidentitythanoneconomicpopulism.Itsnotacoincidencethatthemember
oftheHamiltoncastwhohaslostthemostcachetinrecenttimeshasbeenhisarch-rivalThomasJefferson:While20th-
centuryliberalslikeFranklinDelanoRooseveltheldJeffersoninhighregardforhisradicallyegalitarianeconomicvision,
todaysDemocratsareformallyseveringtieswiththeauthoroftheDeclarationduetohisownershipofslaves.

WillHamiltoneventuallybeshownthedooraswell?Strikingly,mostoftheprogressivecritiquesofLinManuelsmagnum
opushavebarelymentionedHamiltonseconomicelitism,orhissympathyformonarchy,orhismistrustofmass
movements.Rather,criticsarearguingthattheLeftshouldbewaryofHamiltonbecausehewasinsufficientlyanti-slavery,
andgenerallytoowhiteandtoomaletobeatthevanguardoftodaysprogressiveproject.Thiscritiqueseemsunlikelyto
stick,becauseHamiltonwasgenuinelythemostcosmopolitanandraciallyprogressiveofthemajorfounders.Disowning
HamiltonondiversitygroundswouldmeandisowningallthearchitectsoftheAmericanexperiment.

Thatsnottosaythatthereisntroomforaleft-wingattackonHamilton.OnecanimagineSandernistasarguingthatthe
showglorifiesamanwhowas,athiscore,anaristocratandbourgeoisinstitutionalist,aguardianofeliteprivilegewhoheld
thejudgmentofordinarypeopleincontempt.ButthiswouldbeanawkwardargumentforBroadway-goingliberalelitesto
acceptespeciallyatatimewhentheyaretryingtoshepherdtheDemocraticrank-and-filebehindHillaryRodhamClinton.
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 04/09/201606:28:37AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:TedCruz:amanastalentedasheisdespised|ProspectMagazinetannehausisasmartguy
Attachments: 25996714-1.jpg

Seemsaboutright.IstillthinkTrumpgetsthenominationasdoothershereinSedonalikeBobKagan.ButwhereasIthinkTrump
couldwinthewholething,BobthinksHRCisthewinner.That'swhatTNisholdingoutfor.

SentfrommyiPhone

OnApr9,2016,at1:43AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/ted-cruz-talented-despised-wisconsin-trump

TedCruz:amanastalentedasheisdespised
<25996714-1.jpg>

RepublicanpresidentialcandidateTedCruzafterwinningtheWisconsinPrimaryon5thApril,
2016.Tohisrightishiswife,Heidi,tohisleftisWisconsinGovernorScottWalkerReiri
Kurihara/AP/PressAssociationImages

Readmore:WhatwouldTrumpdo?

Forweeks,allpoliticaleyeshadbeentrainedonWisconsinanditsimportantprimaryon5thApril.Ina
presidentialseasonthathasgonefrommarathontocarouselcompletewithtinnysoundtrack,Wisconsin
offeredgravity,areturntothesolidgroundofpragmatichigh-informationvoters.Intherun-up,therewas
muchpraiseforWisconsinitesrefreshingnicenessandcivilitydemonstratedevenbytalk-radio
interrogators.Infactthestate,forallitswonderlandsplendoursofpineforestsandGreatLakes,isalsothe
homeoftwogreatriveringstrainsofAmericanideologythefirstpersonifiedbyRobertM.LaFollette,the
prolaborProgressivewhomountedathird-partycampaignforpresidentin1924andgotanimpressivefive
millionvotestheseconddarklyembodiedinthecoldwardemagogueryofJosephMcCarthywithhiscry
twentyyearsoftreasondirectedatDemocratsinthe1950s.

Insum,theidealvenueforthecampaignstworemainingheart-on-sleeve,high-dudgeonideologuesBernie
SandersfortheDemocratsandTedCruzfortheRepublicans.Sanders,heirtoFightingBobLaFollette,
cameintothestatehoarselydeclaringwaronWallStreetbillionairesandwasgreetedbyrapturouscrowds
inMadison,thestatecapitalandsiteoftheUniversityofWisconsin,thesuperbland-grantinstitution.Cruz,a
technicianofMcCarthy-styleattackonthetraitorousWashingtoncabalbywhichhemeanslawmakersin
bothpartiesrummagedforvotesintheconservativesuburbsofMilwaukee,withitsenclavesofevangelicals
whoseloveofGodismatchedbytheirfearofSatanicbiggovernment.

Bothmensucceeded,inflictingdamageonthefront-runningcandidaciesnowwobblinglikestruckten-pins.
Despiterepeateddefeats,HillaryClintonisfaraheadinthedelegatecountandisalmostcertaintogether
partysnomination.Still,Sandershasforcedherintoaprolongedfightonhispopulistterms.Theelder
stateswomanoftheObamaadministrationnowrecitesherprogressivebonafidesandhasshedthemantle
ofherhusbandscentristpresidency.

ForCruz,victorycomeswrappedinbitterirony.HehasatlastbecomethesolepaladinoftheNeverTrump
Movement,butpartyeldersandwealthydonorsdetesthimtheyhavesimplymadethecoldcalculationthat
heisbestpositionedtoblockTrumpfromgettingthe1,237delegatesheneedsifheistoendthecontest
beforethepartysconventioninmid-July.StoppingTrumpwontgiveCruzthenomination.Onthecontrary,
atanopenconventionbrokerscouldanointamorepalatablealternative,likeWisconsinsownPaulRyan,
theSpeakeroftheHousewholatelyhasaffectedtheposeofastatesmansadlygazingdownattheuglyand
divisivescrumbelow.

ButCruzhasdefeatedtheoddsbefore.HehasbeenantagonizingotherRepublicansformuchofhiscareer
andstillkeepsrising,inpartbecauseheisprodigiouslyintelligentquitepossiblythecleverestcandidatein
thefield,DemocratorRepublican.Foraprofilepublishedin2014,TheNewYorkerslegalwriterJeffrey
ToobinreadoneofCruzsstudentpapersatPrincetonitwasontheConstitutionandreportedthelevelof
erudition...isextraordinary,especiallyforatwenty-one-year-oldwhohadnotyetgonetolawschool.
LaterCruzdidstudylaw,atHarvard,dazzlinghisprofessors.Hethenbecameperhapsthefinestappellate
lawyerofhisgeneration,repeatedlyarguingandwinningcasesattheverytopleveltheSupremeCourt.

Atthesametime,Cruzisattunedtothedown-marketretailpoliticsofthecurrentmoment.Agoodexampleis
theepisodethatmadehimfamous(ornotorious),thegovernmentshutdownheorchestratedin2013,when
hehadbeenintheSenatelessthanayear.HisstatedmissionwastodefundObamacare,whichhenow
promisestorevoketheinstanthetakesoffice.EveryotherRepublicanhassaidthesamething.Butwhile
candidateslikeJebBushandMarcoRubioofferedreplacementpoliciestoprotectthe20millioncitizenswho
wouldlosetheirinsurance,Teddoesnthaveahealthcarepolicy,saysRameshPonnuru,theBloomberg
andNationalReviewcolumnist,whohasknownCruzformanyyearscallshimafriend.Hehasthreetalking
points,buthehasntputaplanout.ThegreatargumentthatsalwaysmadeaboutRepublicans,thatthey
fulminateaboutObamacarebutdonthaveaplan,isexemplifiedbyTed.

AllthisinfuriatesotherRepublicans.SodoesCruzshabitofdenouncingseniorcolleagues.IfyoukilledTed
CruzontheflooroftheSenate,andthetrialwasintheSenate,nobodywouldconvictyou,LindseyGraham,
ofSouthCarolina,hassaid.YetGrahamisnowfund-raisingforCruz.RossDouthat,theconservativeNew
YorkTimescolumnist,haslikenedCruztoKennethWidmerpool,theservileopportunistinAnthonyPowells
cycleofnovels,ADancetotheMusicofTime,whoclimbseverclosertopower,incurringscornatevery
stage.OnedifferenceisthatCruzpossessesgenuinewitandcheerfullyacceptshowlittlelovedheis.Ina
recentlate-nightTVappearance,hewasteasedbyhishost,thecomedianJimmyKimmel,whosaidofCruzs
late-bloomingsuccesswithvotersturningagainstTrump,Youkindofheldoutuntiltheyfoundsomeonethat
theylikedlessthanyou.Cruz,grinningthroughthelaughter,replied,Thereyougo.Itisapowerful
strategy.

Nowread:HowtheRepublicanscouldstopDonaldTrump
25996714-1.jpg
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201601:35:28AM
To: ThomasGraham<tom.graham83@gmail.com>
Subject: McFaul

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/Scanpix

ButIloveRussia,andIlove
RussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussia
MichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15APRIL2016 MEDUZA

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,is
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedin
US-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomatic
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.
AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwithMeduza'sIlya
KrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,
howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhy
AmericasuffersfromashortageofexpertsspecializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheard
roughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwith
AmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-living
Sovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthis
tobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,in
academia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyof
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormal
country.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydata
onpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuse
tostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedin
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,
butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthis
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences
(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[at
Stanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthe
superstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatato
comparelotsofcountries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholars
arethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknow
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesin
America,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon't
teachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.We
teachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudents
especiallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeep
Russianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenan
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthemin
Washington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobs
inthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,in
myopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'ma
Russiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'sno
differencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankin
Washingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackand
forth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopolitical
scienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewhole
country).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istarteda
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsof
studentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbenton
peoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseI
myselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeen
teachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeign
policy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeen
teaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.And
they'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedin
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddle
East.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEast
willalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdo
business,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,in
termsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontact
withRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,and
wasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethis
wasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompanies
inRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andso
nowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,
butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.Ata
placelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthe
countryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterested
inRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappens
intheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernment
haveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'ma
verybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhe
campaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthe
government,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendous
expertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthe
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheState
Department,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedatthe
embassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,
forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30
yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelections
comingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewithanew
USpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit's
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsabout
US-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutour
relationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherof
myoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygood
senseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterI
introducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomething
aboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodeal
withPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou're
goingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportant
atallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asit
wasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.Thereisagroupofvotersin
AmericawhocarealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropean
descent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.But
theytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
sometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensof
thousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthere
arelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,
thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit's
thosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoid
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountries
canonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.About
onceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.
One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peoplein
stateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiain
Montana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowed
upforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowof
thenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyour
generalthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbackto
theColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI've
seenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprised
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamong
elites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownvery
strongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soI
havemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,
aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsay
isthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russia
thinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.Haveyou
metMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuch
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeans
understand.It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinand
hisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howthey
dealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.And
thatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkit
is.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandthe
US?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedon
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It's
becauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmost
AmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthen
fomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
internationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbackto
doingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,
inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmany
meetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasa
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfora
longtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.
I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat's
notgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.It
wasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeign
contactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpression
onme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewas
oneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSoviet
intelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethe
collapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagree
todisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.
AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshould
do,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanother
Reset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthorofthe
Reset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritinga
bookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalled
TheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseother
things,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'm
sayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthink
it'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeep
bordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponseto
Russia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernment
doingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.
Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,
I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwas
verycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.
AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-Russianjustbecause
ofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromthe
world?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussia
annexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.Ifsanctionsare
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenext
timetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithink
sanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountry
willresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonly
statethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraq
andAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUS
oritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptionin
Russia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterribleprice
forinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,
wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwe
alienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsput
inplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongs
don'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearightto
stealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraq
waswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealso
wrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,
Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?
WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,or
you'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethose
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussia
isifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.If
youwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmfor
Crimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthe
majorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
annexation.That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,but
ImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014
whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,
andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyou
knowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemore
interesting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisis
reallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.Sohow
doestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe's
democraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'sa
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizethe
annexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]might
changewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswould
leadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
embraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecause
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangein
Russiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggood
thatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthe
realtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeakto
Russians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthink
aboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonder
whatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworry
aboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn't
matter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleader
ontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snot
there.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkabout
Russiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbeatragedyfor
RussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternational
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeit
abundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabackto
globalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,
right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhis
policyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhis
objective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.His
objectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It's
asclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.Mostoftheattackswerenot
againstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcredit
thatheachievedhisobjective.

2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalot
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sa
smartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowe
canhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.But
nobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,
andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreat
actorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadand
they'veachievedthisresult,andwehavetodealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespected
partnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcan
beatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,but
itdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsabout
Mr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionis
Turkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.
He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehave
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsome
veryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejust
saidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagree
abouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodeal
withhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimfor
whatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnited
Statesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenot
commonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUS
andothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
pragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrent
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughoutthe
world.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overour
history,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Our
firstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmerican
RepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.
Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthe
waragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebatein
Washingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeople
whowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeen
democracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they're
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationships
havealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
transitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocratic
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverour
long-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.So
IranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.
Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayorthe
other.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,
Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetween
interestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-
termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-term
valuesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithink
that'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromote
democracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthat
business.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201601:39:11AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: RESET

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/Scanpix

ButIloveRussia,andIlove
RussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussia
MichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15APRIL2016 MEDUZA

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,is
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedin
US-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomatic
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.
AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwithMeduza'sIlya
KrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,
howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhy
AmericasuffersfromashortageofexpertsspecializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheard
roughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwith
AmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-living
Sovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthis
tobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,in
academia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyof
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormal
country.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydata
onpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuse
tostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedin
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,
butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthis
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences
(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[at
Stanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthe
superstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatato
comparelotsofcountries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholars
arethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknow
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesin
America,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon't
teachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.We
teachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudents
especiallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeep
Russianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenan
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthemin
Washington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobs
inthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,in
myopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'ma
Russiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'sno
differencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankin
Washingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackand
forth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopolitical
scienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewhole
country).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istarteda
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsof
studentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbenton
peoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseI
myselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeen
teachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeign
policy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeen
teaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.And
they'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedin
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddle
East.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEast
willalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdo
business,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,in
termsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontact
withRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,and
wasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethis
wasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompanies
inRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andso
nowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,
butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.Ata
placelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthe
countryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterested
inRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappens
intheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernment
haveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'ma
verybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhe
campaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthe
government,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendous
expertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthe
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheState
Department,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedatthe
embassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,
forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30
yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelections
comingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewithanew
USpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit's
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsabout
US-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutour
relationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherof
myoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygood
senseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterI
introducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomething
aboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodeal
withPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou're
goingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportant
atallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asit
wasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.Thereisagroupofvotersin
AmericawhocarealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropean
descent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.But
theytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
sometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensof
thousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthere
arelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,
thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit's
thosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoid
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountries
canonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.About
onceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.
One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peoplein
stateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiain
Montana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowed
upforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowof
thenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyour
generalthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbackto
theColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI've
seenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprised
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamong
elites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownvery
strongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soI
havemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,
aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsay
isthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russia
thinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.Haveyou
metMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuch
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeans
understand.It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinand
hisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howthey
dealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.And
thatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkit
is.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandthe
US?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedon
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It's
becauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmost
AmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthen
fomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
internationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbackto
doingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,
inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmany
meetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasa
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfora
longtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.
I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat's
notgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.It
wasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeign
contactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpression
onme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewas
oneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSoviet
intelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethe
collapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagree
todisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.
AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshould
do,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanother
Reset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthorofthe
Reset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritinga
bookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalled
TheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseother
things,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'm
sayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthink
it'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeep
bordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponseto
Russia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernment
doingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.
Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,
I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwas
verycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.
AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-Russianjustbecause
ofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromthe
world?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussia
annexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.Ifsanctionsare
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenext
timetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithink
sanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountry
willresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonly
statethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraq
andAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUS
oritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptionin
Russia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterribleprice
forinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,
wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwe
alienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsput
inplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongs
don'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearightto
stealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraq
waswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealso
wrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,
Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?
WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,or
you'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethose
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussia
isifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.If
youwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmfor
Crimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthe
majorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
annexation.That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,but
ImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014
whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,
andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyou
knowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemore
interesting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisis
reallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.Sohow
doestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe's
democraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'sa
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizethe
annexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]might
changewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswould
leadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
embraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecause
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangein
Russiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggood
thatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthe
realtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeakto
Russians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthink
aboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonder
whatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworry
aboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn't
matter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleader
ontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snot
there.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkabout
Russiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbeatragedyfor
RussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternational
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeit
abundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabackto
globalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,
right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhis
policyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhis
objective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.His
objectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It's
asclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.Mostoftheattackswerenot
againstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcredit
thatheachievedhisobjective.

2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalot
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sa
smartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowe
canhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.But
nobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,
andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreat
actorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadand
they'veachievedthisresult,andwehavetodealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespected
partnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcan
beatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,but
itdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsabout
Mr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionis
Turkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.
He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehave
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsome
veryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejust
saidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagree
abouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodeal
withhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimfor
whatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnited
Statesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenot
commonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUS
andothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
pragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrent
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughoutthe
world.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overour
history,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Our
firstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmerican
RepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.
Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthe
waragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebatein
Washingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeople
whowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeen
democracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they're
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationships
havealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
transitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocratic
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverour
long-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.So
IranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.
Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayorthe
other.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,
Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetween
interestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-
termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-term
valuesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithink
that'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromote
democracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthat
business.

IlyaKrasilshchik

PaloAlto,California
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 04/15/201602:14:51PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes15April2016
Attachments: IN15April16.docx

InternetNotes15April2016

Moreonthecall-in(DomesticaffairsoverforeignpolicyNomoregiftsfromPutin)

Thecall-inSMSmessages(Oncorruption)

Rapidresultsfromthecall-in

QuotesfromPutinscallin

Putinsincomeandproperty

SoloveyonRussianpropagandaabroadandthePanamaPapers

RossiyaTVonNavlaniysSecretcorrespondence

BelkovskiyonNavalniy/Yashinvs.Kasyanov

AcrisisintheRussianopposition?(Kasyanov)

Kamenshchikhousearrestextended

ChaykavsBastrykinonKamenshchik

Moreonthecall-in(DomesticaffairsoverforeignpolicyNomoregiftsfromPutin)

Seeyesterdaysnotes
StanovayanotednotlongagothatPutinwasturningbacktodomesticaffairsSeethe8Aprilnotes.

Putinanswered80questionsVedomostinotesthatdomesticissuesdominatedthecall-in:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2016/04/15/637808-prezident-predpochel

Themajorityofthequestionswereabouteconomicandsocialmattersbadroads,wagearrears,thedeficitofaffordable
medicines,theenergybridgetoCrimea,reformingcommunalservices,aswellasmanualcontrolquestionsandrequestsfrom
citizens.Therewasacomplaintfromfishermenwhohadntbeenpaidandtowardstheendoftheprogram,itwasannounced
thatrepresentativesoftheProsecutorsoffice,Rostrud,andtheInvestigativeCommitteewereontheirwaytolookintothe
matterTheCarnegieCentersAleksandrBaunovsaysthatthefocusondomesticmattersmeansthattheKremlinisnotplanning
anyfurtherforeigninterventionstherewasmoretalkaboutproblemswithgarbagethanaboutUkraine.Lastyear,Putinseemed
boredandannoyedbydomesticissues,thisyearhewastryingtoshowhewastakingcareofmanagingthingsathome.

AnotheronefromVedomosti:http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/04/15/637818-krizisnaya-pryamaya

Lastyear,Putin,commentingondomesticaffairs,toldeveryonetobepatient,thatthegovernmenthadananti-crisisplan.Andthis
year?ThesameproblemscameupandPutinsaid,yes,medicineistooexpensive,communalservicesratesaretoohigh,the
roadsarebad,IunderstandInthepast,theclassiccall-informatwasusedtoconvincecitizensthattheplansinoperationand
wouldwork.Thistimearound,nobodygotanygiftsfromthepresident,eitherrealorsymbolicones(Comment:Thereasbit
yesterdayaboutPutingivingawayhiswatchtosomeoneinthepast.Hejokedaboutit,sayinghewasntwearinga
watch),nopromisesthistime(Comment:Therewereafew,justnotasmany,maybe)PolitilogAlekseyMakarkinsaysthat
Russiansocietyhasgonethroughadenialphaseonthecrisis,thenaphaseofbelievingitrepresentedanopportunityforchange,
andisnowinastateofdepression.Putindidntspendsomuchtimeonstressingpositivestatisticsthistimesocietyisatastage
ofnolongerbeingabletobearthedissonanceofthehappytalkwhilefacingtherealityofthecrisisintheireverydaylives
Thecall-inSMSmessages(Oncorruption)

Ane-mailfromareader:

Problem:Ican'tfindavideoonyoutubethatreplicatesthelivefeed.

But

Gotothe2:38:25markofthisone&listenastwobusinessguystalkaboutchecks&corruptionwithgreatbitterness.When
Putinansweredwegotsomethinglike"whenwillwebedonewithcorruption"flashedonthescreenandtheaudiencelaughs.Putin
referstothelaughter&pointsduringhisanswer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3hbgu4f3No

Rapidresultsfromthecall-in
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/five-rapid-results-from-putins-call-in-marathon/565961.html

ForhaplessofficialsacrossRussia,PresidentPutin'sannualcall-inmarathonisawake-upcalllikenoother.

Thisyear,thepresidentreceivedmorethan5millionquestions,manyaskingforhisassistance.Theshowlastedfor3hours40
minutes,withPutinanswering80questionsfromacrossthenation.

Afterpresentingtheirconcernstothegreatleaderhimself,Russiansalloverthecountryarenowseeingtheirproblemsbeingsolved.

HereisjustasmallselectionofthingsthathavealreadychangedforordinaryRussiancitizens,lessthan24hoursafterPutin's
televisionphone-inwiththenation.

BrokenRoadsinOmsk

OfficialsintheSiberiancityofOmskhavepromisedtorepair21roadsinthecityafteroneresidentcomplainedtoPutinduringthe
show'sveryfirstcall.

Lookattheconditionofourroads:oneholeafteranother.Ourcarsbreakdownandwheelsfalloff.Thegovernmentdoesnotrespondto
ourconcernsandrequests,OmskresidentYekaterinatoldthepresidentviaavideocall,evenshowinghimoneofthepot-holedroads.

Omskauthoritieshavereactedbeforetheprogramhadevenended.Beforethreehourswereout,onetelevisionpresenterannouncedthe
roadswouldbemendedbyMay1.

Children'sCampforYaroslavlWonderkid

Oneacademically-giftedeightyear-oldfromYaroslavl,IlyaRayevsky,complainedtothepresidentthathehadnotbeenacceptedinto
theprestigiousArteksummercampduetohisyoungage.

Thisisobviousneglect,saidPutin.Itmeansthatthosewhoareorganizingthiscampwerenotwonderkidsthemselves,andwe'llfix
that.

Yaroslavlofficialssteppedintosolvetheproblem,promisingthattheboywillattendArtekduringtheupcomingsummer.

Ilya,whoisalreadystudyinginthefifthgradeandisfondofscience,hasbeeninvitedtoMoscow'sSkolkovoinnovationfoundationto
sharehisideas.

CriminalcasesoverunpaidwagesinSakhalinandNorthOssetia

ComplaintsfromworkersatseveralRussianbusinessesthattheirwageshadbeendelayedsparkedPutin'soutrage-andquick
responsesfromofficials.
Russia'sInvestigativeCommitteeintheSakhalinregionopenedacriminalcaseintothedirectoroftheOstrovnoyfishplantonShikotan
islandminutesaftertheworkersturnedtothepresidenttohelpthemclaimunpaidwages.

WorkerstoldPutinthattheyfoundthemselvesinthepositionofslaves,thattheyhadn'treceivedwagesforseveralmonths,andthat
theydidn'tevenhavemoneytoleavetheisland.Theyalsosaidthatanappealtotheprosecutor'sofficehadbroughtnoresults.

Theplantcurrentlyowes53ofitsworkers6.8millionrubles($102,000)inunpaidwork.OnFriday,thecompany'sdirectorgeneral,
AlexeiPopov,apologizedtostaffforthedelaysandreimbursedthemwithpartoftheirowedwages.Heexplainedthatdelaysinwere
causedbyabadcatch.

AcriminalcasehasalsobeenopenedintoBPS-Gidrostroy,abuildingcompanyinRussia'srepublicofNorthOssetia,followingaphone-
incomplaint.BPS-Gidrostroyowesunpaidwagesworth63millionrubles($947,000)to750ofitsemployees.

Long-awaitedwagesforChelyabinskworkers

AnothercaseinvolvingdelayedpaymentsraisedduringPutin'scall-inshowhadahappierending.

EmployeesattheUralavtopritsepfactoryinChelyabinskreceivedtheirwagesinfullthreehoursafteraskingPutinforhelp.

FatheroffourDmitryDudkintoldPutinthatworkershadn'treceivedwagesforthreemonths.

AlthoughthePresidentnotedthattheautomotivesectorhadbeenbadlyaffectedbythecrisis,hetoldtheaudience,buttonotpay
wages-itshouldn'tbelikethis.

TheRussianInvestigativeCommitteebranchintheChelyabinskregionhasalsostartedthelookingintothecase.

Theplantpaiditsemployeesatotalof13millionrubles($195,000)inunpaidwages.

PlotsoflandforlargefamiliesintheStavropolregion

AmotherfromthetownofNevinnomysskintheStavropolregionwasgivenaplotoflandfromlocalauthoritiesaftershepleadedfor
Putintohelp.

Inherletter,MariaSolomatinasaidherfamilyhadbeengivenaplotoflandintheStavropolregionbuthadlaterlostitduetochangesin
regionallawthatreclassifiedlargefamilieslikeherstobenot'inneed.'

Solomatinasappealcouldmakethelifeofotherlargefamiliesintheregioneasiertoo.

GovernoroftheStavropolregion,VladimirVladimirov,hasannouncedthatthelocalgovernmentwillsimplifytheregistrationprocedurefor
largefamiliesinordertoimprovetheirlivingconditions.

Comment:Putinscallinislikeoneofthoseaudiencesakingmighthavehadinwhichthesubjectscometopleadfor
justiceandvoicecomplaintsaboutthelords.Agoodmonarchstepsintohelpthepeopleandconfirmhisstatusin
dispensingjustice.Putinsbeengoodatithiseffectivenessinplayingthatroleisonereasonforhisrelative
popularity.Russiansexpecttobemistreated,theyexpectchaos,buttheyalsoexpecttheleadertostepintocorrect
theworstinjusticesfromtimetotimeoratleastslaptheboyarsaroundalittle,givingthepeoplesomesatisfactionin
thatregard.Butwoetothemonarchwholosestheauraofpower.Thatstrouble.
QuotesfromPutinscallin

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-annual-call-in-brightest-quotes/565842.html

Putin's14thannualcall-inmarathonthisThursdaylastedthreeandahalfhours:enoughtimeforthepresidenttoanswer80questions
fromacrossRussia.
Ofcourse,theseasonedstatesmanwassuretousetheplatformtoshowcasehisskill,wit,andpoliticalknowledge.

Hereisashortwrapupofthesession'sbestquotes.

Ifsomeonehasdecidedtodrown,noonecanhelpthem.

Anunusualresponsetoaquestionfrom12-yearoldVaryaKuznetsova,whoaskedthePresidentwhichforeignleaderhewouldsave
fromawaterydeath:TurkishPresidentRecepErdogan,orUkraine'sPetroPoroshenko.Putinshowednofavorites,althoughhedidadd,
Russiawillgiveahelpinghandtoanypartnerwhowantsit.Earlier,Putinsaidthat:Turkeyhasbeen,andremains,afriendand
partnerofRussia.However,problemsarisewiththeleadersofcountrieswhoseresponsestosituationsareinadequate.

HereinRussia,wecanimaginethebribeintheformofgreyhoundspuppies,butviolinsandcellos?I'veneverheardofthat!

PutinusedtheshowtocommentonthePanamaPapers,aleakwhichexposedthesecretoffshoreaccountsofmanyfromPutin'sinner
circle.Inparticular,hisclosefriendcellistSergeiRolduginwastargeted.AccordingtoPutin,allthemoneyearnedbyRolduginwas
spentonthemusicalinstruments.

"Husbandandwifearethesamedevil."

PutinusedthisoldRussianproverbtorespondtoquestionsonU.S.PresidentialcandidateHillaryClinton.Putincouldn'thelpbutnote
howlongthesametwopartieshadbeeninpowerinthissupposedflagshipofdemocracy."ThereweretheBushes,hesaid,andnow
thewifeofBillClintonisrunningforpresident.Whereisthediversity?"

"Thefewerteethyouhave,themoreyoulikeporridge"

OnelittlegirlaskedPutinifhetoowasforcedtoeatporridgewhenhewasachild.Thepresidentsaidthathewasneverbeingforcedto
doanythinghedidn'twantto,althoughhehasalwayslikedporridgeandstilleatsiteachmorningwithpleasure.

"ThereissuchsininRussia,andwewillprayforforgiveness"

Putinwasaskedbyonecallerifhesworewhennotbeingfilmed."Sometimes,butIonlyswearatmyself,heconfessed.Ithappens
whenIamdissatisfiedwithmyself."

Putinsincomeandproperty
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-income-increased-to-89-million-rubles-in-2015/566004.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsofficialincomeroseby1millionrubles(roughly$15,000)in2015,accordingtohisannualdeclarationof

propertyandearnings.Itbringshistotalannualpayto8.9millionrubles($133,000),theInterfaxnewsagencyreportedFriday.

TheRussianleaderalsodeclaredamodest1500squaremetersofland,a77squaremeterapartmentandagarage.Healsohastheuseofa
state-ownedapartmentwithitsownparkingspace.

Theamountofpropertyofficiallyownedbythepresidenthasnotchangedsince2014.Healsodeclaredthreevehicles:aSovietGAZ--21,a
'Niva'modelLada,andaSkiffboattrailer.

TherewasnomentionofPutin'sallegednew$1billionmansion,oranyincomefromsharesorinvestments.

In2007,aCIAreportestimatedPutin'swealthataround$40billionastatementonwhichhedeclinedtocomment.Hehasbeennamedas
Forbes'mostpowerfulmanforthethirdyearinarow.

SoloveyonRussianpropagandaabroadandthePanamaPapers

http://rus.postimees.ee/3655049/valerij-solovej-rossija-mstit-germanii-cherez-smi

CitingthestoryofLizawhoclaimedshewasrapedbymigrantsinGermany(Seeyesterdaysnotes),SoloveynotesthatRussian-
languageTVwasveryeffectiveatstirringupRussianslivinginGermany.Generallyspeaking,TVpropagandaiseffectiveamong
RussiansandmanyRussianspeakersintheformerUSSR(helaternotesthatLatviashutdownRussian-languageSputnikTV,
whichhethinksisanoverreactionalotofthosepeople,especiallytheyoungerones,preferlivinginLatviatoRussia)andin
Germany.RTisanotherstoryitsnotveryinfluentialinEurope.ItsmeantasanalternativetoAnglo-Saxonmediaaroundthe
world,especiallyinIndia,LatinAmerica,andSEAsia,butitdoesnthavemuchinfluenceinEurope.TheKremlinisusingTVto
tryandstrengthenitspositiononforeignpolicyissues.AsfarasGermany,theresanelementofpersonalvengeance:Putinthought
hehadaspecialpersonalrelationshipwithMerkelanditturnsoutthathedidnt.Butpropagandaisaimedatstrengtheningtieswith
somepoliticalforcesinEuropewhoarereadyforcooperationwithRussiapartiesontheright,conservativeparties,Euro
sceptics.TheKremlinsaimistoweakenanyanti-Russiancoalition
WhatkindofimpactdidthePanamaPapersscandalhaveonPutinsimageabroadandinRussia?

SoloveyanswersthatinRussia,itdidntchangeanythingthosewhoconsiderthemselvesinoppositionstillare,withmore
evidenceconfirmingtheirviews.Thosewhosupportvlastorareneutralstillare.Thescandalhadmoreimpactabroadit
representsaseriousprocessthatwillhaveveryimportantstrategicconsequences.Therewillbeademonizationofapartofthe
elite,notonlytheRussianelite,either.Stateofficialswereinvolved,thereisasuspicionofcorruptionSincetheAmericansthink
thatthewholeworldfallsundertheirjurisdiction,theyllopencriminalcases.TheAmericanstatemachineworkslikeabulldozer
slow,butinevitably,itwillfindyouanywhereOneconsequenceofthescandalwillbeRussiasselfisolation.Fromthepointof
viewoftheRussianelite,thescandalisdirectedatthetopoftheRussiansystemandtheUSstandsbehindit.Reachingagreement
withtheUSissimplynotpossible.Theconsequenceswillbeveryserious,buttheprocesswilltakeawhiletoplayout
RussianTVisnttalkingaboutthescandalandforalargepartofRussiansociety,thescandaldoesntexist.Somehaveheard
aboutit,buttheydontunderstandit.Iftheoffshorestorycomesup,itwillbeinconnectionwithPoroshenko,butnottheRussian
presidentThestoryisthattheoffshoreswereforstrategicreserves,skirtingsanctions,butthereareother,conspiratorialstories.
Therearemoredocumentsyettobeseenthescandalwillcontinueanditwontbepossibletohidefromit.
InvestigativeCommitteewantstoquestionBrowderaboutMagnitskiysdeath

Recallthisitemfromthe11Aprilnotes:
[RossiyaTVonNavlaniysSecretcorrespondence

Comment:ThefirstattackwasonKasyanov.NowitsNavalniysturn.TheaimiswhatBelkovskiymentionedpreventacolorrevolutionand
foreigninterferenceintheelections,controlthepoliticalprocess

http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2741466#

FromDmitriyKiselevsprogramItsaboutNavalniy(describedasacorruptrecidivist)e-mailing(andapparentlyinSkypeconversationswith)
anotherKremlinenemy,WilliamBrowder(aswindlerwhoinspiredtheMagnitskiylist),withVGTRKsYevgeniyPopovdescribingthesecret
correspondenceasrevealingchannelsbetweentheRussianoppositionandtheUSandUK.FormerBerezovskysecuritymanSergeySolokolov
(Comment:ImnotsurewherehecomesintothisstoryasaninformantongoingsonintheUK?)saysthecorrespondencewaspickedupoffof
serverssetupbytheCIAandtheMI6asachannelfortheiragents(FreedomNavalniyandSolomanBrowder)forplottingtheoverthrowof
theRussianconstitutionalsystem(OperationDrozhorTremor)ThespecialoperationDrozhdatesbackto1986andthen-CIADirector
WilliamCasey,whoplannedtheoverthrowofthesystemintheUSSRandEasternEurope.Partoftheplanwastogaincontroloverfinancialflows
andassets.

FormerMVDinvestigatorPavelKarpov(Comment:HewasinvolvedintheMagnitskiyaffair)saysthatBrowderandNavalniyworkparalleltoone
another,aswellastogetherTheyfirstmadecontactin2006,whenBrowderwasalreadybannedfromenteringRussiaandNavalniywasayoung
Yablokoactivist.BrowderwantedNavalniytohelphimwithgreenmailprojectsNavalniywasinitiallyskeptical.BrowdertoldNavalniyhewould
beaherooftheminorityshareholdersandwouldaccumulatereputationalcapitalEventuallyNavalniyagreedandBrowdersuggestedhe
startwithVTB.BrowderstargetlistincludedGazprom,Rosneft,Sberbank,LukoilandSurgutneftegaz.ButNavalniyneededmoney,soBrowder
gothimincontactwithbankerVladimirAshurkov(Comment:IthinkAshukrov,whoatonetimeworkedforAlfa,wasachannelforAlfamoneyto
thenon-systemicopposition.IthinkAlfasupportedtheprotestwavein2011-2012Seethenotesfrom11January17May201529
December2014and6November2014formoreonAshurkov).ThereportreproducescorrespondenceitclaimswasfromanMI6controllerwho
channeledR100milliontoNavalniyandcompany.

WhenMagnitskiy(portrayedhereasengaginginfraudhimself)wasarrested,BrowderaskedforNavalniyshelp.Navalniysuggestedthatthey
playupMagnitskiyssuffering,somethingRussianswouldrespondto.ButtheWesterncontroller(MI6AgentBelt)wasunhappythestory
wasntgeneratingenoughinterest,sothebestthingtodowasuseconnectionstoseetoitthatmedicalaidtoMagnitskiywascutoff.Then
Magnitskiydied.SergeyKurginyanchimesintosaythatthepersonmostinterestedinseeingMagnitskiydeadwasBrowder.Browder
subsequentlybeganhiscampaigntogettheUStosetupaMagnitskiylistNavalniyconductedtheinformationcampaigninRussia.

AnotherBrowder-NavalniyprojectwastheinformationattackonProsecutorGeneralChayka,beginningwiththeallegedlyillegalbusinessesofhis
son(See,forinstance,the7December2016notesComment:RecallthatChaykablamedBrowderforthekompromat)thisfollowed
investigatorssearchingtheofficesofBrowdersfirmsonCyprus.]
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=565839

RussiasInvestigativeCommitteeintendstoquestionBritish-AmericaninvestorWilliamBrowderaboutthemurderofwhistleblowerSergei

Magnitsky,theCommittee'swebsitereportedThursday.

SpeculationontheinvolvementofWilliamBillBrowderanoutspokenPutincriticwasbroughttotheCommittee'sattentionbyformer
RussianInteriorMinistryinvestigator,PavelKarpov.

InalettertotheInvestigativeCommittee,KarpovsuggestedthatBrowder,Magnitsky'semployeratthecompanyHermitageCapital,mayhave
beeninvolvedinhisdeath.HealsospeculatedontheinvolvementofMI6agents.

Magnitskydiedin2009undersuspiciouscircumstanceswhileinpolicecustody.Heallegedlyhadjustuncoveredataxfraudinvolvingseveral
Russianofficials.

OnDec.14,2012,theU.S.introducedtheMagnitskyAct,whichbannedcertainRussiansinvolvedinhumanrightsviolationsfromenteringthe
U.S.Thelistcurrentlyincludes39individuals,RIANovostireported.

BelkovskiyonNavalniy/Yashinvs.Kasyanov
Fromyesterdaysnotes:
[AcrisisintheRussianopposition?(Kasyanov)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/crisisinrussianoppositionastwowithdrawfromelectionprimaries/565739.html

TwoofRussiasleadingoppositionpoliticiansannouncedWednesday13Apriltheirwithdrawalfromelectionprimariesbeingorganisedbythe
PARNASdemocraticcoalition.

IvanZhdanov.HeadofLawatAlexeyNavalny'sAnti-CorruptionFoundation(FBK)andIlyaYashin,PARNASpoliticalpartydeputychairman,
announcedtheywouldnotbestandingwithinthespaceof24hours.

TheirreactioncomesafterPARNASleader,MikhailKasyanov,announcedhisrefusaltowithdrawfromthelistofproposedcandidates,despite
recentinvolvementinawell-publicisedscandal.

KasyanovwastheonlypoliticiantobeincludedonthelistofpotentialcandidatessincelastDecemberwhenthecoalitionwasformed.

IthinkthatKasyanov'spositiondestroysvoters'trustandscrapsusfromtheabilitytobeaneffectiveoppositioncoalition,Yashinsaid.

Zhdanov'scitedsimilarreasonstoYashin,butaddedthathewastoobusywithotherpoliticalprojects.

Thelistwouldhavebeenmuchmorerespectableifitsleaderwaselectedatprimaries.Opennessisthecorevalueoftheopposition,Zhdanov

toldTheMoscowTimes.Hestressedthatthewithdrawalwashispersonaldecisionandthathehadn'theardofanybodyelseplanningtoquit
theircandidacy.

ThedecisiontogiveKasyanovtheprivilegeofheadingthelistofcandidateshadbeencontroversial.Thecoalitionwascriticisedforbeingnon-
democraticandforgivingtheKremlinachancetoconcentrateanti-oppositionsmearsonasinglefigure.

Thatchancewasusedwhenstate-controlledtelevisionchannelNTVairedgrainyvideofootageofMikhailKasyanovandacolleague,Natalia
Pelevina,inbedtogether.Theyareheardcriticizingtheiroppositioncolleagues.

Givensuchcircumstances,wewouldbeansweringidioticquestionsaboutwhosleptwithwhomandwhocalledsomeonenamesinbed
throughoutthecourseofthewhole[StateDumaelection]campaign,Yashinexplained.

KasyanovtoldKommersantFMradiothathesawnoproblemswithYashin'schoice.It'shisdecisionandhehastherightforanydecisionand
it'shisopinion,hesaid.

UnlikeYashin,Zhdanovhassaidthathisdecisionhadnothingtodowiththepublicationofthefilm.ThelawyerbelievethatPARNASstillhave
goodchancesattheparliamentaryelections,becausethere'snoalternative.

Democraticcoalitionmembersnowhavetochoosebetweenbadandworse,thepoliticalexpertAlexeyMakarkintoldTheMoscowTimes.

MakarkinbelievesthefilmscandalwillpushoppositionmembersawayfromKasyanov.Healsosaidthatvoteractivityattheprimariesappeared
tobelow,andthatcancellingthemcouldbeanoption.

Atthesametime,Makarkinalsobelievesthatthescandalwillnotresultinanydramaticchanges:PARNASwillsurvive,andYashinwillprobably
entertheelectoralcampaigninasingle-memberdistrict.

Thesituationingeneralisaplustoeveryone,notaminus,GrigoryMelkonyants,co-chairofGolos,anindependentelectionsmonitor,toldThe
MoscowTimes.Itisgoodwhensuchthingspassbeforetheelectioncampaign.Whenitstarts,nothingwilldistractthem.Itseemslikethey[the

opposition]areatastagewhentheyneedtoclarifytherelationship.]

KasyanovsaysheplansonkeepingthefirstspotonthePARNASpartylistforhimself,scandalornoscandal,andregardlessof
theresultsoftheprimaries.SoYashinhasrefusedtotakepartinthepartyprimaries.Belkovskiy:whatweareseeingshowsthe
contradictionsandconflictswithinthenon-systemicopposition.Butthiswontmeanthetotalcollapseofthedemocraticcoalition
itsoftoomuchvaluetopeoplelikeKasyanovandNavalniy.YashinrepresentsNavalniysteam,whichwantstoseizecontrolof
theoppositionandtakechargeofitandthereisareasontheythinkthatway.AcertainpartofPARNASsassets,regional
structures,considerNavalniytheirleadermorethanKasyanovandviewNavalniyashavingbetterpoliticalprospects.Thestruggle
forpowerbetweenKasyanovandNavalniyiscertainlydamagingtothenon-systemicoppositionandcouldcauseasplitatatime
theoppositionneedstoconsolidateWeunderstandthattheKremlinwilllikelynotallowalargemajorityofoppositioncandidates
intotheDumaandundersuchconditions,consolidationbecomesevenmoreimportant.Theresalsoabattlegoingonforthe
political-morallegacyofBorisNemtsov.AlotofPARNASactivistsstillconsiderhimasamoreauthoritativefigurethan
Kasyanov.IfNavalniyandYashincanconvinceactiviststhattheyrepresentNemtsovslegacybetterthanKasyanov,thenthat
wouldbeatrumpcardinthestruggleovertheparty.
BelkovskiysaysheagreesthatNavalniyhasbetterprospectsasaleaderthanKasyanov,butmorallyhesupportsKasyanovone
cantuseKremlinprovocationsasabasisforinfightingintheopposition

Kamenshchikhousearrestextended

RecallthattheProsecutorsofficehastriedtohaveKamenshchikreleasedfrompre-trialcustody,whiletherivalInvestigative
Committee(SK)hasresistedthat.

Fromthe29Marchnotes:

[ChaykavsBastrykinonKamenshchik
Comment:Yesterday,wereadthatDeputyProsecutorGeneralVladimirMalinovskiyhadrecentlymadesomedemandstotheInvestigative
CommitteesBastrykinregardinglegalviolationsduringtheinvestigationofacaseagainstDomodedovoownerDmitriyKamenshchikanddid
notgetanyreply.WevebeenreadingthatRotenbergwantstotakecontrolofDomodedovoandwasbehindthecaseagainstKamenshchiksee,
forinstance,the26Februarynotes.Ofcourse,aswrittenupinthesenotesmanytimes,BastrykinandChaykahavebeenrivalsforalongtime
andhaveclashedfrequently.

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/72416.html

DeputyProsecutorGeneralVladimirMalinovskiyhasnotedthathisoffice,actinginitsoversightcapacity,hadearliercalledontheSKtoclosethe
caseandreleaseKamenshchikfromhousearrest,butwasignored(Kommersantreportedthestoryon22March:
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2944051ChaykavsBastrykinregardingKamenshchikalsocameupinthe26Februarynotes).Nowthe
ProsecutorsofficeisthreateningtotaketheSKtocourtoverthecase.]

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-court-extends-house-arrest-of-domodedovo-airport-owner/565959.html

AMoscowcourthasextendedthehousearrestofDomodedovoairportownerDmitryKamenshchikuntilJuly28,theInterfaxnews
agencyreportedFriday.

TheBasmannycourtgrantedapreliminaryinvestigationintochargesconnectedtoterrorattacksattheairportin2011.
RussiasInvestigativeCommitteeannouncedthearrestofKamenshchikinFebruaryunderArticle238oftheCriminalCode,forproviding
servicesthatdonotmeetsafetyrequirements,resultinginthedeathoftwoormorepeople.

Hewasdenieda50millionrublebail.

TheDomodedovobombattackin2011killed37peopleandinjured170attheairport'sinternationalarrivalsloungeonJan.24,2011.
MilitantIslamistgroupCaucasusEmirate,aterroristgroupbannedinRussia,claimedresponsibilityfortheincident.

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201601:43:38AM
To: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Subject: L.M.A.O.

Ru
News
Stories
Likeitornot
1850

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/ScanpixButIloveRussia,andIloveRussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15April2016Meduza

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,isconsideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedinUS-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwasthe
USambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomaticserviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwith
Meduza'sIlyaKrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhyAmericasuffersfromashortageofexperts
specializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.The
leadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,inacademia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttimeever
youcouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesandone
bookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedinRussia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,butnotthenewgeneration
somewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,politicalscienceI'minthe
departmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
departmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknowindividualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerandfewer
Russiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffof
studentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenanexplosionofthinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsinthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snotmuch
qualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankinWashington
inthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus
(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogramon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaand
Europe.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeenteaching
aboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingto
gobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.Andthey'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.

PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.Therewillalwaysbe
businesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguarantee
afuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedevcameto
Stanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewere
companiesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.AndsonowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthosejobsarenotinteresting,
unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensintheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthaveaproblemtodayfinding
qualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'maverybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignandfiveinthegovernment)...It
wasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotof
strongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelectionscomingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUSpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit'sClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaid
someveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmyoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.IhaveaprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussiain
fact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwithPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.
Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarealotaboutRussian
policy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.ButtheytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgo
Republican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).AndtherearelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissuewhere
TrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoidtheterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescanonlytalkabouteach
otherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'm
sometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowedup
foratalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutelyright.
There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprisedespeciallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesin
America.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedinmy
classormylecturestosaythingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuchmorecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.And
eventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.
Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneinthe
ObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesoftheinternational
system.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingto
change.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snotgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.ItwasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressiononme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImetwho
openlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreetodisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhatObamais
doing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthor
oftheReset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnowabouthowwewererightto
havedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that's
notgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iused
tobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasverycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthe
Putingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromtheworld?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussiaannexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.IfsanctionsareisolatingRussiangovernment
officials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywillresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystatethatchangestherules
here,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethis
perceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepriceforinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,wespentalotofmoneythere,and
weachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sa
strangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthis
andwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,oryou'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmy
view)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyour
enthusiasmforCrimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.That'sjust
logicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjustice
thatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaid
afterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussianpresidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.SohowdoestheWestandtheUSdeal
withthenextRussianpresident,evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationofCrimea.Toholdontothe
falseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldleadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryaboutis
thatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,istherealtendencyrightnow.It'snot
confrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwe
wonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.WejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.I
worrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.AndthatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantlyclearthatthiscampaign
waspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshould
acknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.
It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalotmorethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthatAssad
needstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththe
Russians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehave
todealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotof
attention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionisTurkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.He'sabully,too.Sowhyis
hepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomeveryparticularissues,wehaveradical
differenceswithMr.Erdoan.HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashington
andthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenotcommonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSandothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyofpragmatism,whereyou
cooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirstremember,goingallthewaybackto
thebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthewar
againsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupportourallies
andourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeendemocracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they'redemocracies.Alloftheautocracieswith
whichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocraticstability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracies
havetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]
alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-term
intereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartis
theuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.

IlyaKrasilshchik

PaloAlto,California
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IN15April16.docx

Internet Notes 15 April 2016


More on the call-in (Domestic affairs over foreign policy; No more gifts from Putin) ......................... 1
The call-in SMS messages (On corruption) .............................................................................................. 2
Rapid results from the call-in.................................................................................................................... 2
Quotes from Putins call in ....................................................................................................................... 4
Putins income and property ..................................................................................................................... 5
Solovey on Russian propaganda abroad and the Panama Papers ......................................................... 6
Rossiya TV on Navlaniys Secret correspondence ................................................................................... 7
Belkovskiy on Navalniy/Yashin vs. Kasyanov .......................................................................................... 8
A crisis in the Russian opposition? (Kasyanov)............................................................................................ 8
Kamenshchik house arrest extended ....................................................................................................... 10
Chayka vs Bastrykin on Kamenshchik ........................................................................................................ 10

More on the call-in (Domestic affairs over foreign policy; No more gifts from Putin)
See yesterdays notes
Stanovaya noted not long ago that Putin was turning back to domestic affairsSee the 8 April
notes.
Putin answered 80 questionsVedomosti notes that domestic issues dominated the call-in:
https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2016/04/15/637808-prezident-predpochel

The majority of the questions were about economic and social mattersbad roads, wage arrears,
the deficit of affordable medicines, the energy bridge to Crimea, reforming communal
services, as well as manual control questions and requests from citizens. There was a
complaint from fishermen who hadnt been paidand towards the end of the program, it was
announced that representatives of the Prosecutors office, Rostrud, and the Investigative
Committee were on their way to look into the matterThe Carnegie Centers Aleksandr Baunov
says that the focus on domestic matters means that the Kremlin is not planning any further
foreign interventionsthere was more talk about problems with garbage than about Ukraine.
Last year, Putin seemed bored and annoyed by domestic issues, this year he was trying to show
he was taking care of managing things at home.

Another one from Vedomosti: https://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/04/15/637818-


krizisnaya-pryamaya

Last year, Putin, commenting on domestic affairs, told everyone to be patient, that the
government had an anti-crisis plan. And this year? The same problems came upand Putin
IN15April16.docx

said, yes, medicine is too expensive, communal services rates are too high, the roads are bad, I
understandIn the past, the classic call-in format was used to convince citizens that the plans
in operation and would work. This time around, nobody got any gifts from the president, either
real or symbolic ones (Comment: There as bit yesterday about Putin giving away his watch
to someone in the past. He joked about it, saying he wasnt wearing a watch), no promises
this time (Comment: There were a few, just not as many, maybe)Politilog Aleksey
Makarkin says that Russian society has gone through a denial phase on the crisis, then a phase of
believing it represented an opportunity for change, and is now in a state of depression. Putin
didnt spend so much time on stressing positive statistics this timesociety is at a stage of no
longer being able to bear the dissonance of the happy talk while facing the reality of the crisis in
their everyday lives

The call-in SMS messages (On corruption)


An e-mail from a reader:

Problem: I can't find a video on youtube that replicates the live feed.

But

Go to the 2:38:25 mark of this one & listen as two business guys talk about checks & corruption with
great bitterness. When Putin answered we got something like "when will we be done with corruption"
flashed on the screen and the audience laughs. Putin refers to the laughter & points during his answer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3hbgu4f3No

Rapid results from the call-in


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/five-rapid-results-from-putins-call-in-
marathon/565961.html

For hapless officials across Russia, President Putin's annual call-in marathon is a wake-up call like no
other.

This year, the president received more than 5 million questions, many asking for his assistance. The
show lasted for 3 hours 40 minutes, with Putin answering 80 questions from across the nation.

After presenting their concerns to the great leader himself, Russians all over the country are now seeing
their problems being solved.

Here is just a small selection of things that have already changed for ordinary Russian citizens, less than
24 hours after Putin's television phone-in with the nation.

Broken Roads in Omsk


Officials in the Siberian city of Omsk have promised to repair 21 roads in the city after one resident
complained to Putin during the show's very first call.
IN15April16.docx

Look at the condition of our roads: one hole after another. Our cars break down and wheels fall off. The
government does not respond to our concerns and requests, Omsk resident Yekaterina told the
president via a video call, even showing him one of the pot-holed roads.

Omsk authorities have reacted before the program had even ended. Before three hours were out, one
television presenter announced the roads would be mended by May 1.

Children's Camp for Yaroslavl Wonderkid


One academically-gifted eight year-old from Yaroslavl, Ilya Rayevsky, complained to the president that he
had not been accepted into the prestigious Artek summer camp due to his young age.

This is obvious neglect, said Putin. It means that those who are organizing this camp were not
wonderkids themselves, and we'll fix that.

Yaroslavl officials stepped in to solve the problem, promising that the boy will attend Artek during the
upcoming summer.

Ilya, who is already studying in the fifth grade and is fond of science, has been invited to Moscow's
Skolkovo innovation foundation to share his ideas.

Criminal cases over unpaid wages in Sakhalin and North Ossetia


Complaints from workers at several Russian businesses that their wages had been delayed sparked
Putin's outrage- and quick responses from officials.

Russia's Investigative Committee in the Sakhalin region opened a criminal case into the director of the
Ostrovnoy fish plant on Shikotan island minutes after the workers turned to the president to help them
claim unpaid wages.

Workers told Putin that they found themselves in the position of slaves, that they hadn't received wages
for several months, and that they didn't even have money to leave the island. They also said that an
appeal to the prosecutor's office had brought no results.

The plant currently owes 53 of its workers 6.8 million rubles ($102,000) in unpaid work. On Friday, the
company's director general, Alexei Popov, apologized to staff for the delays and reimbursed them with
part of their owed wages. He explained that delays in were caused by a bad catch.

A criminal case has also been opened into BPS-Gidrostroy, a building company in Russia's republic of
North Ossetia, following a phone-in complaint. BPS-Gidrostroy owes unpaid wages worth 63 million
rubles ($947,000) to 750 of its employees.

Long-awaited wages for Chelyabinsk workers


Another case involving delayed payments raised during Putin's call-in show had a happier ending.
IN15April16.docx

Employees at the Uralavtopritsep factory in Chelyabinsk received their wages in full three hours after
asking Putin for help.

Father of four Dmitry Dudkin told Putin that workers hadn't received wages for three months.

Although the President noted that the automotive sector had been badly affected by the crisis, he told the
audience, but to not pay wages- it shouldn't be like this.

The Russian Investigative Committee branch in the Chelyabinsk region has also started the looking into
the case.

The plant paid its employees a total of 13 million rubles ($195,000) in unpaid wages.

Plots of land for large families in the Stavropol region


A mother from the town of Nevinnomyssk in the Stavropol region was given a plot of land from local
authorities after she pleaded for Putin to help.

In her letter, Maria Solomatina said her family had been given a plot of land in the Stavropol region but
had later lost it due to changes in regional law that reclassified large families like hers to be not 'in need.'

Solomatinas appeal could make the life of other large families in the region easier too.

Governor of the Stavropol region, Vladimir Vladimirov, has announced that the local government will
simplify the registration procedure for large families in order to improve their living conditions.

Comment: Putins call in is like one of those audiences a king might have had in which the
subjects come to plead for justice and voice complaints about the lords. A good monarch
steps in to help the people and confirm his status in dispensing justice. Putins been good at
ithis effectiveness in playing that role is one reason for his relative popularity. Russians
expect to be mistreated, they expect chaos, but they also expect the leader to step in to
correct the worst injustices from time to time or at least slap the boyars around a little,
giving the people some satisfaction in that regard. But woe to the monarch who loses the
aura of power. Thats trouble.
Quotes from Putins call in
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-annual-call-in-brightest-
quotes/565842.html

Putin's 14th annual call-in marathon this Thursday lasted three and a half hours: enough time for the
president to answer 80 questions from across Russia.
IN15April16.docx

Of course, the seasoned statesman was sure to use the platform to showcase his skill, wit, and political
knowledge.

Here is a short wrap up of the session's best quotes.

If someone has decided to drown, no one can help them.


An unusual response to a question from 12-year old Varya Kuznetsova, who asked the President which
foreign leader he would save from a watery death: Turkish President Recep Erdogan, or Ukraine's Petro
Poroshenko. Putin showed no favorites, although he did add, Russia will give a helping hand to any
partner who wants it. Earlier, Putin said that: Turkey has been, and remains, a friend and partner of
Russia. However, problems arise with the leaders of countries whose responses to situations are
inadequate.

Here in Russia, we can imagine the bribe in the form of greyhounds puppies, but violins and cellos? I've
never heard of that!
Putin used the show to comment on the Panama Papers, a leak which exposed the secret offshore
accounts of many from Putin's inner circle. In particular, his close friend cellist Sergei Roldugin was
targeted. According to Putin, all the money earned by Roldugin was spent on the musical instruments.

"Husband and wife are the same devil."


Putin used this old Russian proverb to respond to questions on U.S. Presidential candidate Hillary
Clinton. Putin couldn't help but note how long the same two parties had been in power in this supposed
flagship of democracy. "There were the Bushes, he said, and now the wife of Bill Clinton is running for
president. Where is the diversity?"

"The fewer teeth you have, the more you like porridge"
One little girl asked Putin if he too was forced to eat porridge when he was a child. The president said that
he was never being forced to do anything he didn't want to, although he has always liked porridge and still
eats it each morning with pleasure.

"There is such sin in Russia, and we will pray for forgiveness"


Putin was asked by one caller if he swore when not being filmed. "Sometimes, but I only swear at myself,
he confessed. It happens when I am dissatisfied with myself."

Putins income and property


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-income-increased-to-89-million-
rubles-in-2015/566004.html
IN15April16.docx

Russian President Vladimir Putins official income rose by 1 million rubles (roughly $15,000) in 2015, according to his

annual declaration of property and earnings. It brings his total annual pay to 8.9 million rubles ($133,000), the Interfax

news agency reported Friday.

The Russian leader also declared a modest 1500 square meters of land, a 77 square meter apartment and a garage.

He also has the use of a state-owned apartment with its own parking space.

The amount of property officially owned by the president has not changed since 2014. He also declared three

vehicles: a Soviet GAZ--21, a 'Niva' model Lada, and a Skiff boat trailer.

There was no mention of Putin's alleged new $1 billion mansion, or any income from shares or investments.

In 2007, a CIA report estimated Putin's wealth at around $40 billion a statement on which he declined to comment.

He has been named as Forbes' most powerful man for the third year in a row.

Solovey on Russian propaganda abroad and the Panama Papers


http://rus.postimees.ee/3655049/valerij-solovej-rossija-mstit-germanii-cherez-smi

Citing the story of Liza who claimed she was raped by migrants in Germany (See yesterdays
notes), Solovey notes that Russian-language TV was very effective at stirring up Russians living
in Germany. Generally speaking, TV propaganda is effective among Russians and many Russian
speakers in the former USSR (he later notes that Latvia shut down Russian-language Sputnik
TV, which he thinks is an overreactiona lot of those people, especially the younger ones,
prefer living in Latvia to Russia) and in Germany. RT is another storyits not very influential
in Europe. Its meant as an alternative to Anglo-Saxon media around the world, especially in
India, Latin America, and SE Asia, but it doesnt have much influence in Europe. The Kremlin
is using TV to try and strengthen its position on foreign policy issues. As far as Germany, theres
an element of personal vengeance: Putin thought he had a special personal relationship with
Merkel and it turns out that he didnt. But propaganda is aimed at strengthening ties with some
political forces in Europe who are ready for cooperation with Russiaparties on the right,
conservative parties, Euro sceptics. The Kremlins aim is to weaken any anti-Russian coalition
What kind of impact did the Panama Papers scandal have on Putins image abroad and in
Russia?
Solovey answers that in Russia, it didnt change anythingthose who consider themselves in
opposition still are, with more evidence confirming their views. Those who support vlast or are
neutral still are. The scandal had more impact abroadit represents a serious process that will
have very important strategic consequences. There will be a demonization of a part of the elite,
not only the Russian elite, either. State officials were involved, there is a suspicion of
corruptionSince the Americans think that the whole world falls under their jurisdiction, theyll
open criminal cases. The American state machine works like a bulldozerslow, but inevitably, it
will find you anywhereOne consequence of the scandal will be Russias self isolation. From
IN15April16.docx

the point of view of the Russian elite, the scandal is directed at the top of the Russian system and
the US stands behind it. Reaching agreement with the US is simply not possible. The
consequences will be very serious, but the process will take a while to play out
Russian TV isnt talking about the scandal and for a large part of Russian society, the scandal
doesnt exist. Some have heard about it, but they dont understand it. If the offshore story comes
up, it will be in connection with Poroshenko, but not the Russian presidentThe story is that the
offshores were for strategic reserves, skirting sanctions, but there are other, conspiratorial stories.
There are more documents yet to be seenthe scandal will continue and it wont be possible to
hide from it.
Investigative Committee wants to question Browder about Magnitskiys death
Recall this item from the 11 April notes:

[Rossiya TV on Navlaniys Secret correspondence

Comment: The first attack was on Kasyanov. Now its Navalniys turn. The aim is what Belkovskiy
mentionedprevent a color revolution and foreign interference in the elections, control the political
process

http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2741466#

From Dmitriy Kiselevs programIts about Navalniy (described as a corrupt recidivist) e-mailing (and
apparently in Skype conversations with) another Kremlin enemy, William Browder (a swindler who inspired the
Magnitskiy list), with VGTRKs Yevgeniy Popov describing the secret correspondence as revealing channels
between the Russian opposition and the US and UK. Former Berezovsky security man Sergey Solokolov
(Comment: Im not sure where he comes into this storyas an informant on goings on in the UK?) says the
correspondence was picked up off of servers set up by the CIA and the MI6 as a channel for their agents
(FreedomNavalniy and SolomanBrowder) for plotting the overthrow of the Russian constitutional system
(Operation Drozh or Tremor)The special operation Drozh dates back to 1986 and then-CIA Director
William Casey, who planned the overthrow of the system in the USSR and Eastern Europe. Part of the plan was to
gain control over financial flows and assets.

Former MVD investigator Pavel Karpov (Comment: He was involved in the Magnitskiy affair) says that Browder
and Navalniy work parallel to one another, as well as togetherThey first made contact in 2006, when Browder was
already banned from entering Russia and Navalniy was a young Yabloko activist. Browder wanted Navalniy to help
him with greenmail projectsNavalniy was initially skeptical. Browder told Navalniy he would be a hero of the
minority shareholders and would accumulate reputational capitalEventually Navalniy agreed and Browder
suggested he start with VTB. Browders target list included Gazprom, Rosneft, Sberbank, Lukoil and
Surgutneftegaz. But Navalniy needed money, so Browder got him in contact with banker Vladimir Ashurkov
(Comment: I think Ashukrov, who at one time worked for Alfa, was a channel for Alfa money to the non-
systemic opposition. I think Alfa supported the protest wave in 2011-2012; See the notes from 11 January;
17 May 2015; 29 December 2014; and 6 November 2014 for more on Ashurkov). The report reproduces
correspondence it claims was from an MI6 controller who channeled R100 million to Navalniy and company.

When Magnitskiy (portrayed here as engaging in fraud himself) was arrested, Browder asked for Navalniys help.
Navalniy suggested that they play up Magnitskiys suffering, something Russians would respond to. But the
Western controller (MI6 Agent Belt) was unhappythe story wasnt generating enough interest, so the best thing
to do was use connections to see to it that medical aid to Magnitskiy was cut off. Then Magnitskiy died.
IN15April16.docx

Sergey Kurginyan chimes in to say that the person most interested in seeing Magnitskiy dead was Browder.
Browder subsequently began his campaign to get the US to set up a Magnitskiy listNavalniy conducted the
information campaign in Russia.

Another Browder-Navalniy project was the information attack on Prosecutor General Chayka, beginning with the
allegedly illegal businesses of his son (See, for instance, the 7 December 2016 notes; Comment: Recall that
Chayka blamed Browder for the kompromat)this followed investigators searching the offices of Browders
firms on Cyprus.]

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=565839

Russias Investigative Committee intends to question British-American investor William Browder about the murder of

whistleblower Sergei Magnitsky, the Committee's website reported Thursday.

Speculation on the involvement of William Bill Browder an outspoken Putin critic was brought to the

Committee's attention by former Russian Interior Ministry investigator, Pavel Karpov.

In a letter to the Investigative Committee, Karpov suggested that Browder, Magnitsky's employer at the company

Hermitage Capital, may have been involved in his death. He also speculated on the involvement of MI6 agents.

Magnitsky died in 2009 under suspicious circumstances while in police custody. He allegedly had just uncovered a

tax fraud involving several Russian officials.

On Dec. 14, 2012, the U.S. introduced the Magnitsky Act, which banned certain Russians involved in human rights

violations from entering the U.S. The list currently includes 39 individuals, RIA Novosti reported.

Belkovskiy on Navalniy/Yashin vs. Kasyanov


From yesterdays notes:

[A crisis in the Russian opposition? (Kasyanov)


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/crisis-in-russian-opposition-as-two-withdraw-from-election-
primaries/565739.html

Two of Russias leading opposition politicians announced Wednesday 13 April their withdrawal from election

primaries being organised by the PARNAS democratic coalition.

Ivan Zhdanov. Head of Law at Alexey Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) and Ilya Yashin, PARNAS political

party deputy chairman, announced they would not be standing within the space of 24 hours.

Their reaction comes after PARNAS leader, Mikhail Kasyanov, announced his refusal to withdraw from the list of

proposed candidates, despite recent involvement in a well-publicised scandal.

Kasyanov was the only politician to be included on the list of potential candidates since last December when the

coalition was formed.


IN15April16.docx

I think that Kasyanov's position destroys voters' trust and scraps us from the ability to be an effective opposition

coalition, Yashin said.

Zhdanov's cited similar reasons to Yashin, but added that he was too busy with other political projects.

The list would have been much more respectable if its leader was elected at primaries. Openness is the core value

of the opposition, Zhdanov told The Moscow Times. He stressed that the withdrawal was his personal decision and

that he hadn't heard of anybody else planning to quit their candidacy.

The decision to give Kasyanov the privilege of heading the list of candidates had been controversial. The coalition

was criticised for being non-democratic and for giving the Kremlin a chance to concentrate anti-opposition smears on

a single figure.

That chance was used when state-controlled television channel NTV aired grainy video footage of Mikhail Kasyanov

and a colleague, Natalia Pelevina, in bed together. They are heard criticizing their opposition colleagues.

Given such circumstances, we would be answering idiotic questions about who slept with whom and who called

someone names in bed throughout the course of the whole [State Duma election] campaign, Yashin explained.

Kasyanov told KommersantFM radio that he saw no problems with Yashin's choice. It's his decision and he has the

right for any decision and it's his opinion, he said.

Unlike Yashin, Zhdanov has said that his decision had nothing to do with the publication of the film. The lawyer

believe that PARNAS still have good chances at the parliamentary elections, because there's no alternative.

Democratic coalition members now have to choose between bad and worse, the political expert Alexey Makarkin

told The Moscow Times.

Makarkin believes the film scandal will push opposition members away from Kasyanov. He also said that voter

activity at the primaries appeared to be low, and that cancelling them could be an option.

At the same time, Makarkin also believes that the scandal will not result in any dramatic changes: PARNAS will

survive, and Yashin will probably enter the electoral campaign in a single-member district.

The situation in general is a plus to everyone, not a minus, Grigory Melkonyants, co-chair of Golos, an independent

elections monitor, told The Moscow Times. It is good when such things pass before the election campaign. When it

starts, nothing will distract them. It seems like they [the opposition]are at a stage when they need to clarify the
relationship.]

Kasyanov says he plans on keeping the first spot on the PARNAS party list for himself, scandal
or no scandal, and regardless of the results of the primaries. So Yashin has refused to take part
in the party primaries. Belkovskiy: what we are seeing shows the contradictions and conflicts
within the non-systemic opposition. But this wont mean the total collapse of the democratic
IN15April16.docx

coalitionits of too much value to people like Kasyanov and Navalniy. Yashin represents
Navalniys team, which wants to seize control of the opposition and take charge of itand there
is a reason they think that way. A certain part of PARNASs assets, regional structures, consider
Navalniy their leader more than Kasyanov and view Navalniy as having better political
prospects. The struggle for power between Kasyanov and Navalniy is certainly damaging to the
non-systemic opposition and could cause a split at a time the opposition needs to
consolidateWe understand that the Kremlin will likely not allow a large majority of opposition
candidates into the Duma and under such conditions, consolidation becomes even more
important. Theres also a battle going on for the political-moral legacy of Boris Nemtsov. A lot
of PARNAS activists still consider him as a more authoritative figure than Kasyanov. If
Navalniy and Yashin can convince activists that they represent Nemtsovs legacy better than
Kasyanov, then that would be a trump card in the struggle over the party.
Belkovskiy says he agrees that Navalniy has better prospects as a leader than Kasyanov, but
morally he supports Kasyanovone cant use Kremlin provocations as a basis for infighting in
the opposition

Kamenshchik house arrest extended


Recall that the Prosecutors office has tried to have Kamenshchik released from pre-trial custody,
while the rival Investigative Committee (SK) has resisted that.
From the 29 March notes:

[Chayka vs Bastrykin on Kamenshchik


Comment: Yesterday, we read that Deputy Prosecutor General Vladimir Malinovskiy had recently made
some demands to the Investigative Committees Bastrykin regarding legal violations during the investigation
of a case against Domodedovo owner Dmitriy Kamenshchik and did not get any reply. Weve been reading
that Rotenberg wants to take control of Domodedovo and was behind the case against Kamenshchiksee, for
instance, the 26 February notes. Of course, as written up in these notes many times, Bastrykin and Chayka
have been rivals for a long time and have clashed frequently.

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/72416.html

Deputy Prosecutor General Vladimir Malinovskiy has noted that his office, acting in its oversight capacity, had
earlier called on the SK to close the case and release Kamenshchik from house arrest, but was ignored (Kommersant
reported the story on 22 March: http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2944051; Chayka vs Bastrykin regarding
Kamenshchik also came up in the 26 February notes). Now the Prosecutors office is threatening to take the SK to
court over the case. ]

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-court-extends-house-arrest-of-
domodedovo-airport-owner/565959.html

A Moscow court has extended the house arrest of Domodedovo airport owner Dmitry Kamenshchik until
July 28, the Interfax news agency reported Friday.
IN15April16.docx

The Basmanny court granted a preliminary investigation into charges connected to terror attacks at the
airport in 2011.

Russias Investigative Committee announced the arrest of Kamenshchik in February under Article 238 of
the Criminal Code, for providing services that do not meet safety requirements, resulting in the death of
two or more people.

He was denied a 50 million ruble bail.

The Domodedovo bomb attack in 2011 killed 37 people and injured 170 at the airport's international
arrivals lounge on Jan. 24, 2011. Militant Islamist group Caucasus Emirate, a terrorist group banned in
Russia, claimed responsibility for the incident.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201601:39:11AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: RESET

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/Scanpix

ButIloveRussia,andIlove
RussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussia
MichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15APRIL2016 MEDUZA

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,is
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedin
US-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomatic
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.
AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwithMeduza'sIlya
KrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,
howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhy
AmericasuffersfromashortageofexpertsspecializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheard
roughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwith
AmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-living
Sovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthis
tobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,in
academia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyof
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormal
country.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydata
onpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuse
tostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedin
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,
butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthis
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences
(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[at
Stanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthe
superstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatato
comparelotsofcountries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholars
arethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknow
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesin
America,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon't
teachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.We
teachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudents
especiallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeep
Russianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenan
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthemin
Washington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobs
inthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,in
myopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'ma
Russiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'sno
differencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankin
Washingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackand
forth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopolitical
scienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewhole
country).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istarteda
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsof
studentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbenton
peoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseI
myselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeen
teachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeign
policy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeen
teaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.And
they'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedin
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddle
East.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEast
willalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdo
business,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,in
termsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontact
withRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,and
wasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethis
wasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompanies
inRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andso
nowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,
butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.Ata
placelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthe
countryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterested
inRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappens
intheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernment
haveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'ma
verybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhe
campaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthe
government,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendous
expertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthe
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheState
Department,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedatthe
embassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,
forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30
yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelections
comingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewithanew
USpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit's
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsabout
US-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutour
relationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherof
myoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygood
senseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterI
introducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomething
aboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodeal
withPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou're
goingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportant
atallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asit
wasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.Thereisagroupofvotersin
AmericawhocarealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropean
descent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.But
theytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
sometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensof
thousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthere
arelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,
thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit's
thosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoid
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountries
canonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.About
onceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.
One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peoplein
stateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiain
Montana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowed
upforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowof
thenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyour
generalthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbackto
theColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI've
seenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprised
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamong
elites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownvery
strongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soI
havemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,
aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsay
isthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russia
thinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.Haveyou
metMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuch
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeans
understand.It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinand
hisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howthey
dealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.And
thatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkit
is.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandthe
US?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedon
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It's
becauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmost
AmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthen
fomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
internationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbackto
doingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,
inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmany
meetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasa
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfora
longtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.
I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat's
notgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.It
wasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeign
contactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpression
onme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewas
oneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSoviet
intelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethe
collapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagree
todisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.
AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshould
do,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanother
Reset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthorofthe
Reset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritinga
bookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalled
TheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseother
things,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'm
sayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthink
it'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeep
bordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponseto
Russia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernment
doingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.
Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,
I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwas
verycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.
AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-Russianjustbecause
ofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromthe
world?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussia
annexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.Ifsanctionsare
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenext
timetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithink
sanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountry
willresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonly
statethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraq
andAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUS
oritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptionin
Russia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterribleprice
forinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,
wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwe
alienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsput
inplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongs
don'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearightto
stealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraq
waswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealso
wrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,
Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?
WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,or
you'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethose
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussia
isifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.If
youwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmfor
Crimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthe
majorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
annexation.That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,but
ImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014
whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,
andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyou
knowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemore
interesting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisis
reallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.Sohow
doestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe's
democraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'sa
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizethe
annexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]might
changewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswould
leadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
embraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecause
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangein
Russiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggood
thatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthe
realtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeakto
Russians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthink
aboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonder
whatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworry
aboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn't
matter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleader
ontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snot
there.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkabout
Russiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbeatragedyfor
RussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternational
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeit
abundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabackto
globalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,
right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhis
policyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhis
objective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.His
objectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It's
asclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.Mostoftheattackswerenot
againstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcredit
thatheachievedhisobjective.

2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalot
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sa
smartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowe
canhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.But
nobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,
andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreat
actorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadand
they'veachievedthisresult,andwehavetodealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespected
partnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcan
beatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,but
itdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsabout
Mr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionis
Turkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.
He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehave
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsome
veryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejust
saidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagree
abouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodeal
withhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimfor
whatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnited
Statesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenot
commonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUS
andothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
pragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrent
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughoutthe
world.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overour
history,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Our
firstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmerican
RepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.
Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthe
waragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebatein
Washingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeople
whowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeen
democracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they're
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationships
havealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
transitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocratic
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverour
long-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.So
IranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.
Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayorthe
other.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,
Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetween
interestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-
termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-term
valuesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithink
that'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromote
democracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthat
business.

IlyaKrasilshchik

PaloAlto,California
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201601:35:28AM
To: ThomasGraham<tom.graham83@gmail.com>
Subject: McFaul

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/Scanpix

ButIloveRussia,andIlove
RussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussia
MichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15APRIL2016 MEDUZA

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,is
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedin
US-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomatic
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.
AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwithMeduza'sIlya
KrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,
howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhy
AmericasuffersfromashortageofexpertsspecializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheard
roughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwith
AmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-living
Sovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthis
tobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,in
academia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyof
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormal
country.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydata
onpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuse
tostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedin
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,
butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthis
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences
(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[at
Stanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthe
superstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatato
comparelotsofcountries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholars
arethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknow
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesin
America,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon't
teachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.We
teachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudents
especiallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeep
Russianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenan
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthemin
Washington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobs
inthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,in
myopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'ma
Russiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'sno
differencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankin
Washingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackand
forth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopolitical
scienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewhole
country).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istarteda
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsof
studentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbenton
peoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseI
myselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeen
teachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeign
policy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeen
teaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.And
they'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedin
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddle
East.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEast
willalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdo
business,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,in
termsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontact
withRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,and
wasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethis
wasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompanies
inRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andso
nowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,
butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.Ata
placelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthe
countryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterested
inRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappens
intheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernment
haveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'ma
verybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhe
campaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthe
government,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendous
expertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthe
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheState
Department,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedatthe
embassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,
forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30
yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelections
comingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewithanew
USpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit's
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsabout
US-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutour
relationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherof
myoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygood
senseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterI
introducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomething
aboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodeal
withPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou're
goingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportant
atallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asit
wasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.Thereisagroupofvotersin
AmericawhocarealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropean
descent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.But
theytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
sometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensof
thousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthere
arelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,
thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit's
thosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoid
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountries
canonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.About
onceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.
One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peoplein
stateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiain
Montana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowed
upforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowof
thenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyour
generalthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbackto
theColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI've
seenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprised
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamong
elites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownvery
strongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soI
havemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,
aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsay
isthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russia
thinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.Haveyou
metMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuch
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeans
understand.It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinand
hisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howthey
dealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.And
thatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkit
is.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandthe
US?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedon
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It's
becauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmost
AmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthen
fomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
internationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbackto
doingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,
inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmany
meetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasa
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfora
longtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.
I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat's
notgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.It
wasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeign
contactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpression
onme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewas
oneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSoviet
intelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethe
collapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagree
todisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.
AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshould
do,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanother
Reset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthorofthe
Reset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritinga
bookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalled
TheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseother
things,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'm
sayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthink
it'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeep
bordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponseto
Russia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernment
doingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.
Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,
I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwas
verycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.
AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-Russianjustbecause
ofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromthe
world?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussia
annexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.Ifsanctionsare
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenext
timetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithink
sanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountry
willresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonly
statethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraq
andAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUS
oritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptionin
Russia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterribleprice
forinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,
wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwe
alienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsput
inplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongs
don'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearightto
stealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraq
waswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealso
wrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,
Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?
WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,or
you'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethose
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussia
isifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.If
youwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmfor
Crimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthe
majorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
annexation.That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,but
ImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014
whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,
andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyou
knowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemore
interesting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisis
reallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.Sohow
doestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe's
democraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'sa
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizethe
annexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]might
changewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswould
leadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
embraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecause
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangein
Russiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggood
thatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthe
realtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeakto
Russians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthink
aboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonder
whatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworry
aboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn't
matter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleader
ontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snot
there.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkabout
Russiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbeatragedyfor
RussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternational
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeit
abundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabackto
globalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,
right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhis
policyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhis
objective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.His
objectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It's
asclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.Mostoftheattackswerenot
againstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcredit
thatheachievedhisobjective.

2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalot
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sa
smartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowe
canhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.But
nobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,
andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreat
actorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadand
they'veachievedthisresult,andwehavetodealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespected
partnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcan
beatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,but
itdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsabout
Mr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionis
Turkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.
He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehave
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsome
veryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejust
saidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagree
abouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodeal
withhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimfor
whatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnited
Statesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenot
commonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUS
andothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
pragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrent
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughoutthe
world.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overour
history,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Our
firstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmerican
RepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.
Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthe
waragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebatein
Washingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeople
whowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeen
democracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they're
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationships
havealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
transitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocratic
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverour
long-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.So
IranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.
Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayorthe
other.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,
Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetween
interestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-
termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-term
valuesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithink
that'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromote
democracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthat
business.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201601:37:34AM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>
Subject: MikeSpeaks(isthattitleredundant)

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/Scanpix

ButIloveRussia,andIlove
RussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussia
MichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15APRIL2016 MEDUZA

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,is
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedin
US-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomatic
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.
AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwithMeduza'sIlya
KrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,
howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhy
AmericasuffersfromashortageofexpertsspecializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheard
roughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwith
AmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-living
Sovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthis
tobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,in
academia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyof
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormal
country.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydata
onpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuse
tostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedin
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,
butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthis
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences
(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[at
Stanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthe
superstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatato
comparelotsofcountries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholars
arethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknow
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesin
America,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon't
teachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.We
teachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudents
especiallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeep
Russianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenan
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthemin
Washington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobs
inthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,in
myopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'ma
Russiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'sno
differencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankin
Washingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackand
forth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopolitical
scienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewhole
country).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istarteda
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsof
studentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbenton
peoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseI
myselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeen
teachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeign
policy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeen
teaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.And
they'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedin
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddle
East.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEast
willalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdo
business,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,in
termsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontact
withRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,and
wasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethis
wasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompanies
inRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andso
nowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,
butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.Ata
placelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthe
countryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterested
inRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappens
intheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernment
haveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'ma
verybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhe
campaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthe
government,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendous
expertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthe
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheState
Department,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedatthe
embassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,
forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30
yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelections
comingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewithanew
USpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit's
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsabout
US-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutour
relationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherof
myoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygood
senseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterI
introducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomething
aboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodeal
withPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou're
goingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportant
atallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asit
wasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.Thereisagroupofvotersin
AmericawhocarealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropean
descent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.But
theytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
sometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensof
thousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthere
arelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,
thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit's
thosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoid
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountries
canonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.About
onceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.
One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peoplein
stateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiain
Montana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowed
upforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowof
thenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyour
generalthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbackto
theColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI've
seenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprised
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamong
elites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownvery
strongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soI
havemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,
aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsay
isthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russia
thinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.Haveyou
metMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuch
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeans
understand.It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinand
hisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howthey
dealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.And
thatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkit
is.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandthe
US?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedon
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It's
becauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmost
AmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthen
fomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
internationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbackto
doingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,
inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmany
meetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasa
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfora
longtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.
I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat's
notgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.It
wasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeign
contactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpression
onme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewas
oneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSoviet
intelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethe
collapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagree
todisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.
AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshould
do,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanother
Reset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthorofthe
Reset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritinga
bookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalled
TheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseother
things,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'm
sayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthink
it'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeep
bordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponseto
Russia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernment
doingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.
Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,
I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwas
verycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.
AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-Russianjustbecause
ofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromthe
world?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussia
annexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.Ifsanctionsare
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenext
timetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithink
sanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountry
willresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonly
statethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraq
andAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUS
oritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptionin
Russia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterribleprice
forinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,
wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwe
alienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsput
inplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongs
don'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearightto
stealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraq
waswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealso
wrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,
Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?
WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,or
you'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethose
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussia
isifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.If
youwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmfor
Crimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthe
majorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
annexation.That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,but
ImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014
whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,
andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyou
knowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemore
interesting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisis
reallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.Sohow
doestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe's
democraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'sa
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizethe
annexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]might
changewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswould
leadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
embraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecause
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangein
Russiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggood
thatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthe
realtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeakto
Russians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthink
aboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonder
whatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworry
aboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn't
matter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleader
ontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snot
there.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkabout
Russiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbeatragedyfor
RussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternational
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeit
abundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabackto
globalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,
right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhis
policyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhis
objective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.His
objectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It's
asclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.Mostoftheattackswerenot
againstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcredit
thatheachievedhisobjective.

2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalot
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sa
smartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowe
canhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.But
nobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,
andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreat
actorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadand
they'veachievedthisresult,andwehavetodealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespected
partnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcan
beatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,but
itdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsabout
Mr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionis
Turkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.
He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehave
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsome
veryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejust
saidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagree
abouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodeal
withhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimfor
whatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnited
Statesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenot
commonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUS
andothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
pragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrent
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughoutthe
world.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overour
history,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Our
firstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmerican
RepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.
Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthe
waragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebatein
Washingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeople
whowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeen
democracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they're
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationships
havealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
transitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocratic
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverour
long-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.So
IranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.
Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayorthe
other.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,
Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetween
interestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-
termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-term
valuesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithink
that'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromote
democracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthat
business.
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 03/29/201601:30:01PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: SixthAnnualChinaDefenseandSecurityConference

SixthAnnualChinaDefenseandSecurityConferenceTicketson Viewthisemailinyour
SaleNow browser

Presents

SixthAnnualChinaDefenseand
SecurityConference
May12th
9:00A.M.4:15P.M.

TheUniversityClubof
Washington,D.C.
GrandBallroom(2ndFloor)
1135SixteenthStreet,N.W.
Washington,D.C.20036

*Alightlunchwillbeserved.
Featuring
TheHonorable **Pleasenotethatthedresscodeforthis
Dr.KurtM.Campbell eventisbusinessattireorworkinguniform.
ChairmanandCEO,TheAsiaGroup
FormerAssistantSecretaryofState
forEastAsianandPacificAffairs,
BuyTicketsNow
U.S.DepartmentofState

Agenda

Registration
8:159:00a.m.

***

Welcome
9:009:05a.m.

GlenE.Howard
President,TheJamestownFoundation

***

KeynoteAddress:
9:059:40a.m.

KeynoteSpeaker:

TheHonorableDr.KurtM.Campbell
ChairmanandCEO,TheAsiaGroup
FormerAssistantSecretaryofStateforEastAsianandPacificAffairs,U.S.
DepartmentofState

Q&A

***

PanelOne:
9:4011:00a.m.

KeyDevelopmentsinChineseDoctrineandPractice

ChinasNationalMilitaryStrategyintheXiJinpingEra
TimothyHeath
RAND

KeyPLAActivitiesSincethe18thPartyCongress
KennethAllen
DGI

ChineseMilitaryOrganizationalRealignment
DennisBlasko
IndependentAnalyst

TaiwansPerspectiveonChinasEvolvingMilitaryStrategy
TBA

Q&A

***

CoffeeBreak
11:0011:20a.m.

***

PanelTwo:
11:20a.m.12:30p.m.

StrategicServices:Airforce,NavyandRocketForces

Presenters:

ChineseNavalStrategy
AndrewErickson(Invited)
USNWC

ChineseAirForceStrategy
CristinaGarafola(Invited)
RAND

ChineseNuclearandMissileForceStrategy
MikeChase(Invited)
RAND

Q&A

***

Luncheon
12:301:30p.m.

***

PanelThree:
1:302:45p.m.

EmergingRoles

Presenters:

ChinasSpaceStrategy
KevinPollpeter
CNA
with
JonathanRey
DGI

ChineseNetworkWarfareStrategy
JoeMcReynolds
DGI

ChineseElectromagneticWarfareStrategy
JohnCostello
TechCongress

Q&A

***

CoffeeBreak
2:453:00p.m.

***

PanelFour:
3:004:15p.m.

PoliticalConsiderationsinChineseDefenseStrategy

Moderator:
PeterWood
TheJamestownFoundation

ANewEraofCivil-MilitaryRelations
DanAlderman
DGI

PartyDisciplineandthePLA
Dr.WillyLam
TheJamestownFoundation

ChinasIntelligenceReorganization
PeterMattis
TheJamestownFoundation

Q&A

*********
Conclusion
4:15p.m.

ParticipantBiographies
DanAlderman

DanielAldermanistheDeputyDirectorofDefenseGroupInc.Hepreviouslyworkedforin
variouscapacitiesattheNationalBureauofAsianResearch.Mr.Aldermansresearch
interestsincludeChinasPLAandEastAsiansecurity.Heco-authoredwithYouJithechapter
ChangingCivil-MilitaryRelationsinChinainThePLAatHomeandAbroad:Assessingthe
OperationalCapabilitiesofChinasMilitary(2010).Healsoauthoredthe2009PLA
ConferenceColloquiumBrief,ThePLAatHomeandAbroad"(2010).Mr.Alderman
completedanMAinAsianStudiesattheGeorgeWashingtonUniversitysElliottSchoolof
InternationalAffairs,andwasa2008-09BorenNSEPfellowinBeijing,wherehestudied
advancedChineseintheInter-UniversityProgramforChineseLanguageStudiesatTsinghua
University.BeforejoiningNBR,hestudiedChineselanguageatGuizhouUniversityinGuiyang
andatCapitolNormalUniversityinChina.Heisa2006graduatefromPresbyterianCollege,
wherehemajoredinPoliticalScienceandHistory.

KennethAllen

KenAllenisaSeniorChinaAnalystwithDefenseGroupInc.(DGI),wherehefocuseson
Chinasmilitaryorganizationalstructure,personnel,education,training,andforeignrelations
withparticularemphasisonthePLAAirForce.During21yearsintheU.S.AirForce(1971-
1992),heservedasanenlistedChineseandRussianlinguistandintelligenceofficerwithtours
inTaiwan,Berlin,Japan,Hawaii,China,andWashingtonDC.From1987-1989,heservedas
theAssistantAirAttachintheU.S.EmbassyinBeijing.HewasinductedintoDIAsDefense
AttachHallofFamein1997.HehasB.A.degreesfromtheUniversityofCaliforniaatDavis
andtheUniversityofMarylandandanM.A.degreefromBostonUniversity.Hehaswritten
numerousmonographs,bookchapters,andjournalarticlesonthePLA.Hehasalsobeena
speakeratthefirstfiveChinaDefenseandSecurityConferences.

DennisJ.Blasko

DennisJ.Blasko,LieutenantColonel,U.S.Army(Retired),served23yearsasaMilitary
IntelligenceOfficerandForeignAreaOfficerspecializinginChina.Mr.Blaskowasanarmy
attachinBeijingfrom1992-1995andinHongKongfrom1995-1996.Healsoservedin
infantryunitsinGermany,Italy,andKoreaandinWashingtonattheDefenseIntelligence
Agency,HeadquartersDepartmentoftheArmy(OfficeofSpecialOperations),andthe
NationalDefenseUniversityWarGamingandSimulationCenter.Mr.Blaskoisagraduateof
theUnitedStatesMilitaryAcademyandtheNavalPostgraduateSchool.Hehaswritten
numerousarticlesandchaptersontheChinesemilitaryanddefenseindustriesandistheauthor
ofthebook,TheChineseArmyToday:TraditionandTransformationforthe21stCentury,
secondedition(Routledge,2012).

KurtM.Campbell

KurtM.CampbellisChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficerofTheAsiaGroup,LLC,a
strategicadvisoryandinvestmentgroupspecializinginthedynamicandfastgrowingAsia
Pacificregion.From2009to2013,heservedastheAssistantSecretaryofStateforEast
AsianandPacificAffairs,whereheiswidelycreditedasbeingakeyarchitectofthepivotto
Asia.Inthiscapacity,Dr.CampbelladvancedacomprehensiveU.S.strategythattookhim
toeverycorneroftheAsia-PacificregionwherehewasatirelessadvocateforAmerican
interests,particularlythepromotionoftradeandinvestment.Hisvisionandleadershipwere
essentialintheAdministrationseffortstostrengthensecurityalliancesandpartnershipsfrom
NortheasttoSoutheastAsiaandthroughouttheIndo-Pacificregion.Dr.Campbellwasakey
figureinmanagingtheU.S.-ChinarelationshipandoverseeingtheannualStrategicand
EconomicDialogue.InacknowledgementforhiscontributionsinadvancingU.S.national
interestsinAsia,SecretaryClintonawardedhimtheSecretaryofStatesDistinguished
ServiceAward(2013)thenationshighestdiplomatichonor.

Dr.Campbellpreviouslyservedinseveralcapacitiesingovernment,includingasdeputy
assistantsecretaryofdefenseforAsiaandthePacific,directorontheNationalSecurity
CouncilStaff,deputyspecialcounselortothepresidentforNAFTAintheWhiteHouse,and
WhiteHousefellowattheDepartmentoftheTreasury.Previously,hewastheCEOandCo-
FounderoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurity(CNAS)andconcurrentlyservedasthe
directoroftheAspenStrategyGroupandChairmanoftheEditorialBoardoftheWashington
Quarterly.HereceivedhisB.A.fromtheUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego,aCertificatein
musicandpoliticalphilosophyfromtheUniversityofErevaninSovietArmenia,andhis
DoctorateinInternationalRelationsfromBrasenoseCollegeatOxfordUniversitywherehe
wasaDistinguishedMarshallScholar.

MichaelChase

MichaelS.Chase,Ph.D.,isaSeniorPoliticalScientistatRANDandanadjunctprofessorin
theChinaStudiesandStrategicStudiesDepartmentsatJohnsHopkinsUniversity'sSchoolof
AdvancedInternationalStudies(SAIS)inWashington,DC.AspecialistinChinaandAsia-
Pacificsecurityissues,hewaspreviouslyanAssociateProfessorattheU.S.NavalWar
College(NWC)inNewport,RhodeIsland,whereheservedasdirectorofthestrategic
deterrencegroupintheWarfareAnalysisandResearchDepartmentandtaughtintheStrategy
andPolicyDepartment.PriortojoiningthefacultyatNWC,hewasaResearchAnalystat
DefenseGroupInc.andanAssociateInternationalPolicyAnalystatRAND.Heistheauthor
ofthebookTaiwan'sSecurityPolicyandnumerouschaptersandarticlesonChinaandAsia-
Pacificsecurityissues.HiscurrentresearchfocusesonChinesemilitarymodernization,
China'snuclearpolicyandstrategyandnuclearforcemodernization,Taiwan'sdefensepolicy,
andAsia-Pacificsecurityissues.

JohnCostello

JohnCostelloisCongressionalInnovationFellowforNewAmericanFoundationanda
formerResearchAnalystatDefenseGroupInc.HewasamemberoftheUSNavyanda
DODAnalyst.Hespecializesininformationwarfare,electronicwarfareandnon-kinetic
counterspaceissues.

AndrewS.Erickson

Dr.EricksonisProfessorofStrategyin,andacorefoundingmemberof,theU.S.NavalWar
CollegesChinaMaritimeStudiesInstitute.HeservesontheNavalWarCollegeReviews
EditorialBoard.Since2008hehasbeenanAssociateinResearchatHarvardUniversitys
JohnKingFairbankCenterforChineseStudies.Ericksonisalsoanexpertcontributortothe
WallStreetJournalsChinaRealTimeReportandatermmemberoftheCouncilonForeign
Relations.In2012theNationalBureauofAsianResearchawardedEricksontheinaugural
EllisJoffePrizeforPLAStudiesHeistheauthorofthevolumeChineseAnti-ShipBallistic
MissileDevelopment(Jamestown,2013)andcoauthoroftwoadditionalbooks:GulfofAden
Anti-PiracyandChinasMaritimeCommonsPresence(Jamestown,2015),aswellas
AssessingChinasCruiseMissileAmbitions.Hehaspublishedextensivelyinsuchpeer-
reviewedjournalsasChinaQuarterly,JournalofContemporaryChina,AsianSecurity,Asia
Policy,JournalofStrategicStudies,andActaAstronautica.EricksonreceivedhisPh.D.and
M.A.fromPrincetonUniversityandstudiedMandarinatBeijingNormalUniversitysCollege
ofChineseLanguageandCulture.Hecanbereachedthroughwww.andrewerickson.com.

CristinaGarafola

Ms.GarafolaisaProjectAssociate-ChinaSpecialistattheRANDCorporation.Sheholds
anM.A.fromtheJohnsHopkinsSchoolofAdvancedInternationalStudiesandacertificate
fromtheHopkins-NanjingCenterforChineseandAmericanStudies.Cristinahaspreviously
workedattheDepartmentofState,theDepartmentofTreasury,andtheFreemanChairin
ChinaStudiesattheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies.SheisfluentinMandarin.

WillyWo-LapLam

Dr.WillyWo-LapLamisaSeniorFellowatTheJamestownFoundation.HeisanAdjunct
ProfessorattheCenterforChinaStudies,theHistoryDepartmentandtheProgramof
MastersinGlobalPoliticalEconomyattheChineseUniversityofHongKong.Heisthe
authorofsixbooksonChina,includingChinesePoliticsintheEraofXiJinping.

TimothyR.Heath

TimothyR.HeathisSeniorInternationalandDefenseAnalystattheRANDCorporationand
arecognizedexpertonChinesestrategyandpolitical-militarytopics.Heservedforfiveyears
asthesenioranalystintheUnitedStatesPacificCommand(USPACOM)ChinaStrategic
FocusGroupandhasoverfifteenyearsofexperienceintheUSgovernmentasaspecialiston
China.Mr.HeathhasauthoredmanyarticlesandabookchapterontopicsrelatedtoChinese
securityandpoliticalissues.HeearnedhisMAinAsianStudiesfromGeorgeWashington
UniversityandspeaksfluentMandarinChinese.

PeterMattis

PeterMattisisaFellowintheChinaProgramatTheJamestownFoundation.Heedited
JamestownsbiweeklyChinaBrieffrom2011to2013.PriortoTheJamestownFoundation,
Mr.MattisworkedasaninternationalaffairsanalystfortheU.S.Government.Hereceived
hisM.A.inSecurityStudiesfromtheGeorgetownUniversitySchoolofForeignServiceand
earnedhisB.A.inPoliticalScienceandAsianStudiesfromtheUniversityofWashingtonin
Seattle.HealsopreviouslyworkedasaResearchAssociateattheNationalBureauofAsian
ResearchinitsStrategicAsiaandNortheastAsianStudiesprograms.Heiscurrently
researchingabookonChineseintelligence.

JoeMcReynolds

JoeMcReynoldsisaResearchAnalystatDefenseGroupInc.'sCenterforIntelligence
ResearchandAnalysis.HisresearchinterestsprimarilycenteronChinasapproachto
computernetworkwarfareanddefensescience&technologydevelopment.Mr.McReynolds
haspreviouslyworkedwiththeCouncilonForeignRelationsandthePacificCouncilfor
InternationalPolicy,andisagraduateofGeorgetownUniversitysSchoolofForeignService
andGraduateSecurityStudiesprograms.HespeaksandreadsChineseandJapanese,and
haslivedandstudiedinNagoya,GuilinandBeijing.

KevinPollpeter

KevinPollpeterisaResearchScientistattheCenterforNavalAnalyses(CNA).He
previouslyservedastheDeputyDirectoroftheEastAsiaProgramatDefenseGroupInc
(DGI)wherehemanagedagroupofmorethan20Chinaanalysts.Heiswidelypublishedon
Chinanationalsecurityissues,withafocusonChinasspaceprogram.Hismostrecent
publicationsinclude,ThePLAAFandtheIntegrationofAirandSpacePower,inRichardP.
Hallion,RogerCliff,andPhillipC.Saunders,TheChineseAirForce:EvolvingConcepts,
Roles,andCapabilities(NDU,2012)andControllingtheInformationDomain:Space,
Cyber,andElectronicWarfare,inAshleyJ.TellisandTravisTanner,StrategicAsia2012-
2013:ChinasMilitaryChallenge(NBR:2012).HisotherpublicationsincludeUpwardand
Onward:TechnologicalInnovationandOrganizationalChangeinChinasSpaceIndustryin
theJournalofStrategicStudies(June2011),ChinasSpaceDoctrineinAndrewS.
EricksonandLyleJ.Goldstein,eds.,ChineseAerospacePower(NavalInstitutePress,
2011),aswellasnumerousarticlesinChinaBrief.AChineselinguist,heholdsanM.A.in
InternationalPolicyStudiesfromtheMontereyInstituteofInternationalStudies.

JonathanRay

JonathanRayisaResearchAssociateatDefenseGroupInc.(DGI),whereheconducts
researchandanalysisusingChinese-languagesourcesonforeignpolicy,nationalsecurity,and
scienceandtechnologyissues.PreviouslyhewasacontractresearcherattheNational
DefenseUniversity,wherehewroteRedChinasCapitalistBomb:InsidetheChinese
NeutronBombProgram.

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From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201601:37:34AM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>
Subject: MikeSpeaks(isthattitleredundant)

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/Scanpix

ButIloveRussia,andIlove
RussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussia
MichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15APRIL2016 MEDUZA

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,is
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedin
US-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomatic
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.
AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwithMeduza'sIlya
KrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,
howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhy
AmericasuffersfromashortageofexpertsspecializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheard
roughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwith
AmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-living
Sovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthis
tobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,in
academia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyof
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormal
country.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydata
onpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuse
tostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedin
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,
butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthis
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences
(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[at
Stanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthe
superstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatato
comparelotsofcountries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholars
arethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknow
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesin
America,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon't
teachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.We
teachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudents
especiallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeep
Russianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenan
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthemin
Washington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobs
inthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,in
myopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'ma
Russiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'sno
differencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankin
Washingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackand
forth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopolitical
scienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewhole
country).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istarteda
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsof
studentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbenton
peoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseI
myselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeen
teachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeign
policy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeen
teaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.And
they'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedin
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddle
East.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEast
willalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdo
business,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,in
termsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontact
withRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,and
wasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethis
wasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompanies
inRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andso
nowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,
butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.Ata
placelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthe
countryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterested
inRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappens
intheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernment
haveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'ma
verybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhe
campaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthe
government,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendous
expertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthe
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheState
Department,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedatthe
embassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,
forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30
yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelections
comingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewithanew
USpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit's
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsabout
US-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutour
relationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherof
myoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygood
senseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterI
introducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomething
aboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodeal
withPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou're
goingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportant
atallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asit
wasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.Thereisagroupofvotersin
AmericawhocarealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropean
descent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.But
theytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
sometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensof
thousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthere
arelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,
thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit's
thosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoid
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountries
canonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.About
onceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.
One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peoplein
stateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiain
Montana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowed
upforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowof
thenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyour
generalthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbackto
theColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI've
seenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprised
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamong
elites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownvery
strongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soI
havemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,
aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsay
isthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russia
thinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.Haveyou
metMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuch
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeans
understand.It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinand
hisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howthey
dealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.And
thatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkit
is.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandthe
US?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedon
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It's
becauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmost
AmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthen
fomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
internationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbackto
doingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,
inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmany
meetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasa
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfora
longtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.
I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat's
notgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.It
wasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeign
contactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpression
onme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewas
oneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSoviet
intelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethe
collapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagree
todisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.
AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshould
do,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanother
Reset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthorofthe
Reset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritinga
bookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalled
TheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseother
things,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'm
sayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthink
it'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeep
bordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponseto
Russia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernment
doingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.
Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,
I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwas
verycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.
AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-Russianjustbecause
ofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromthe
world?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussia
annexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.Ifsanctionsare
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenext
timetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithink
sanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountry
willresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonly
statethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraq
andAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUS
oritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptionin
Russia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterribleprice
forinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,
wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwe
alienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsput
inplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongs
don'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearightto
stealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraq
waswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealso
wrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,
Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?
WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,or
you'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethose
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussia
isifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.If
youwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmfor
Crimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthe
majorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
annexation.That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,but
ImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014
whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,
andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyou
knowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemore
interesting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisis
reallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.Sohow
doestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe's
democraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'sa
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizethe
annexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]might
changewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswould
leadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
embraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecause
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangein
Russiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggood
thatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthe
realtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeakto
Russians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthink
aboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonder
whatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworry
aboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn't
matter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleader
ontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snot
there.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkabout
Russiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbeatragedyfor
RussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternational
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeit
abundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabackto
globalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,
right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhis
policyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhis
objective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.His
objectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It's
asclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.Mostoftheattackswerenot
againstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcredit
thatheachievedhisobjective.

2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalot
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sa
smartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowe
canhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.But
nobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,
andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreat
actorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadand
they'veachievedthisresult,andwehavetodealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespected
partnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcan
beatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,but
itdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsabout
Mr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionis
Turkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.
He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehave
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsome
veryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejust
saidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagree
abouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodeal
withhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimfor
whatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnited
Statesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenot
commonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUS
andothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
pragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrent
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughoutthe
world.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overour
history,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Our
firstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmerican
RepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.
Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthe
waragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebatein
Washingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeople
whowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeen
democracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they're
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationships
havealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
transitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocratic
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverour
long-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.So
IranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.
Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayorthe
other.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,
Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetween
interestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-
termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-term
valuesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithink
that'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromote
democracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthat
business.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/27/201607:07:18AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Bershidskiy--ThisElection'sBigQuestion:WhatMakesAmericaGreat?-BloombergView

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-21/this-election-s-big-question-what-makes-america-great

ThisElection'sBigQuestion:WhatMakes
AmericaGreat?

Intwomonthsontheroadcoveringthe2016presidentialprimaries,I'veseentheU.S.goingthroughsomethingofan
identitycrisis,afterdecadesofdominance.Thecandidatesaretalkingaboutwhatthevotersarethinkingabout:Whatdoesit
meanforAmericatobegreat?

Toatraveler,America'sgreatnessisrevealedinsimple,visualways.Everywhere,eveninsparseruralareas,there'sa
healthybustleofactivity.Americansgetupearly,andtheyfindithardtokeepstill.AtaFloridaintersection,Iwatcheda
manexpertlyjuggleamattress-storesigntoattractcustomers.Hemightholdthesignforminimumwage,butthat'snot
whyhejugglesit.

Thewholecountryisneverinreposeanenergyrunsthroughitthatyouwon'tfindanywhereelse,andasenseofconstant,
habitualcompetitionisever-present.Thisisthebiggesteconomyintheworld,anditfeelslikeit.Itfeelslikeagreatnation.

Tothepresidentialcandidates,however,theissueofgreatnessisdebatable.

"Wedon'twinanymore,"complainsDonaldTrump,whohasunashamedlypickedupRonaldReagan's1980campaign
slogan,"MakeAmericaGreatAgain."Tohim,asacandidateorasapotentialleader,thegameiszero-sum:Ifyouwin,
somebodyhastolose.Trumptalksalotaboutnegotiatingandmakingdeals,buthedoesn'tmeanitintheEuropeanorAsian
senseofreachingacompromiseorconsensus:Thenegotiationshehasinmindarepowerplays,andthedealsarevictories
fortheU.S.anddefeatsforitspartners.It'safundamentallyimperialistvisionofgreatness,inwhichtheU.S.takeswhatit
needsfromothers,beitoilfromIslamicState("taketheoil,"Trumpkeepssaying)ormoneyfromMexicotobuildawall
that'llkeepMexicansoutoftheU.S.

AmericahasbeengreatinthatwaysinceWorldWarII,andthroughouttherestoftheworld,theopinionthatit'scapableof
takingwhateveritwantsisattherootofunfavorableperceptionsoftheU.S.TheRussianstatepropagandanarrativeisthat
BarackObamaisabully.Trumpandhissupportersdon'tbuythistheywanttheU.S.tobeabigger,betterbully.Even
Trumpmightfindthatatallorder.

AshedeclaredvictoryinIowa,TedCruzspokeofAmericaas"thegreatestnationtheworldhaseverknown"butsaidit
hadstrayedfromtheprinciplesthathadmadeitsuch:freemarkets,constitutionallibertiesandwhattheconservative
candidateskeepcalling"Judeo-Christianvalues"--anincomprehensibletermtomeasaJew,butarallyingcrytomillionsof
peoplelikethoseIsawinmegachurchesintheSouthwhobelievetheirreligiouslibertyisthreatened.

Ofallthecandidates,CruzhasthevisionofAmerica'sgreatnessthatisthehardestforanoutsidertounderstand.The
Constitution,whichCruzkeepsvowingtodefend,isalreadymoreofasacredcowherethananywhereelse.Inother
countries,constitutionsevolveintheU.S.,thedocumentissacrosanct,areligiousartifact.Marketfreedomsarealsoin
evidence,farmorethaninEurope:There'slessinteractionwiththegovernmentandadistinctlymorecommercial,
entrepreneurialculture.Andthereligiousfreedomissue,whichinvariablygetsCruzabigboostatrallies,isa
mystery.NowherehaveIseensuchanimpressivevarietyofformsofChristianworship,orsuchrich,prosperous
churchesasintheU.S.Ittakesanincrediblystrongimaginationtofindanysignsofpersecutionhere.Thereligiousculture
isvibrant,joyousandopentoexperimentationthere'snovisibleneedforChristianstobeonthedefensive.

SoCruzappearssimplytowanttheU.S.tohavemoreofwhatitalreadyhasthemostof.Hisisaquantitativevisionof
greatnessthatisentirelyfordomesticuse.Non-Americanswouldn'tnoticeifthecountrybecamegreateronCruz'sterms.

OnthenighthecameinsecondinNewHampshireandwasenergizedtogoon,JohnKasichtalkedabouttheneedto"re-
shine"and"fixourgreatnation."It'seasytofeelintuitivelywhathe'sgettingat:Greaterefficiency,asenseofawell-oiled
machinethatonegets,say,inGermany'sindustrialregions.Bycomparison,Americaissloppier,moreadhoc:Povertyand
dysfunctionaretoooftenondisplay.I'vetakenalotofflightsinthesetwomonths,andnotonehasbeenontime.Kasich's
visionisoneofadown-to-earth,common-sensemanager.Greatnessisaboutgettingthenutsandboltsright.

Thatvision,however,ishardtoscalefromtheWhiteHouse,orfromthestateofOhiothatKasichhascontinuallyheldup
asanexamplefortherestofthecountry.ThealmosttangiblespiritoffreedomthatpermeatestheU.S.isnotconduciveto
efficiencyinthesmallthingsoflife.Thecountryistoodiversetorunlikeamechanism.

MarcoRubio,whodroppedoutofthepresidentialracelastweek,hadusedhisstumpspeechtoofferaclearandappealing
visionofgreatness:

Americaisagreatnation.Becauseeachgenerationbeforeusdidtheirpart.Eachgenerationbeforeus
sacrificed,theyconfrontedtheirchallenges,theyembracedtheiropportunities,andforovertwocenturies,
eachgenerationhasleftthenextbetteroffthanthemselves.

Rubio'smessagewasthatthiswasnolongerworkingbecauseoftheDemocrats'betrayaloftheAmericandreaminfavor
ofover-regulationandexcessivegovernment.HisclaimwouldbemoreplausibleifIhadnottraveledinFlorida,includingto
Hialeah,theU.S.citywiththehighestproportionofCubans--Rubio'speople.Thecityof230,000has44,000small
businesses,andtheirownersstillsacrifice,confronttheirchallenges,embracetheiropportunitiesandlivetheAmerican
dream.Rubiodescribeditinthepasttense,buttheAmericandreamisnotdead.America'ssocialfabriciswhatmakesita
greatcountry,anditappearstobeintact.

OntheDemocraticside,BernieSandershasacompellingvisionofadifferentkindofgreatness."Agreatnationisjudged,"
hesays,"byhowittreatsthemostvulnerableamongstus."And,"Thetestofagreatnationisnothowmanywarsitcan
engagein,buthowitcanresolveinternationalconflictsinapeacefulmanner."

Sanders'sunderstandingofgreatnesshasalottodowithjusticeandcompassion.It'salreadyeasyforastrangertofeelat
homehere.WhereverIhavegone,peoplehavebeenhelpful,courteousandconsideratetoadegreethatisnotcommonin
therestoftheworld.Americancultureisquitekind.Yetonadeeperlevel,manyAmericansfeelinsecure,cutofffromhelp
shouldtheyfindthemselvesintrouble.Sanderswantstoaddressthis.Itmakesnosensetohimthatthecountrythat
accountsfor34percentofallglobaldefensespendinghasahealth-caresystemthatranksamongthelastintherichworld
andaneducationsystemwhosestudentsarebehindEuropeanandAsianonesinreadingandmathskills.Surelyallthe
candidateswouldwanttheU.S.toleadinthosefields.

Isuspect,though,thatSanders'sideaofputtingitrightbygettingtoughonbusinessandraisingtaxeswoulddetractfrom
thekindofgreatnessRubiodescribedsosuccinctly.Messingwithacountry'ssocialfabricisdangerous,anditmaymakeit
moredysfunctionalratherthanfairer.

HillaryClintonhasmadeatypicallypragmaticcontributiontothegreatnessdebate."Despitewhatyouhear,wedon'tneedto
makeAmericagreatagain,"shehasrepeatedinrecentweeks."Americahasneverstoppedbeinggreat."Clintonischanging
thesubject:Shewantstheconversationtobeabouthealingdivisions,"makingthecountrywholeagain."

Clintonisnotpromisinganimmediateleapingreatness.ShewantstheU.S.tobecomethegloballeaderinsustainable
energy,forexample,butthatleadershipprobablycannotbeachievedeveninthenexttwopresidentialterms.The
Democraticfront-runner'sfocusisonmakingtheU.S.incrementallymorelivable.That'snotaninspiringgoal,butitmakes
sense.Perhapsthat'swhyClintonhaswonmorevotessofarthananyotherpresidentialcandidate.

Icomefromacountrythatusedtobegreatasanempireandasatotalitarianstate.Greatnesswasalwaysattheforefront
ofRussianrulers'minds.Itstillis,thoughthecountryisgoingthroughhardtimeseconomically,andmanyofitssmartest
peopleareseekingafutureelsewhere.Ihavemetanumberofthemhereinthelasttwomonths,tryingtofigureoutthe
Americandream.Backhome,Russianleaderswoulddowelltoforgetaboutgreatnessforawhileandtofocusonmore
mundanepriorities.

IfonlyAmericanleaderscoulddothataswell.TheU.S.cancertainlyaffordto.Butpresidentialcandidatescan'tshedthe
burdenofAmericangreatness.AsinRussia'scase,it'sinthenation'sgenes.

Theyenforgreatnessrunsdeep.It'sinescapable.AndyetAmericanshavenotyetagreedwhattheyareyearningfor.Does
greatnessmeanbeinganunbeatablebully,orabastionofenterpriseandingenuity,ortheworld'senvyinhealthcareand
education?Tryingtobeallthreeatonceappearsunsustainable.

GivenClinton'sstrength,theU.S.islikelytodelaythatreckoningwith"greatness,"asshechangesthesubject.Thatdefers
theconversationforatleastanothercycle.ButuntilthereisanAmericanconsensusaboutAmericangreatness,every
presidentialelectionwillbeanattempttosettlethequestion.Theyarelikelytobeascontentiousandasangryasthisone.

ThiscolumndoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionoftheeditorialboardorBloombergLPanditsowners.

Tocontacttheauthorofthisstory:
LeonidBershidskyatlbershidsky@bloomberg.net

Tocontacttheeditorresponsibleforthisstory:
PhilipGrayatphilipgray@bloomberg.net
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/25/201608:56:25AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:NatalyaZUBAREVICH[professoratMoscowStateU],6-pageop-ed,"RussianeconomiccrisisrisksSTAGNATION,DEGRADATION,"
Subject:
themoscowtimes.com,3/25

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,March25,20168:56AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:NatalyaZUBAREVICH[professoratMoscowStateU],6-pageop-ed,"RussianeconomiccrisisrisksSTAGNATION,
DEGRADATION,"themoscowtimes.com,3/25

TheRussianeconomyislockedinanespeciallybadcrisis.Itdifferssignificantlyfromthecrisesof
1998and20082009Ifanything,thecurrentcrisismorecloselyresemblesthatoftheearly1990s,
whenRussiawastransitioningfromaplannedtoamarketeconomy.

And:AndreOSBORN,6pagearticleFromRussiawithlove:whytheKremlinBACKSTRUMP,
http://www.reuters.com/article/ususaelectiontrumprussia1dUSKCNOWQIFA

DonaldTrumpisabraveproPutinpoliticalmaverickwhowouldendUSforeignwarsandperhapslift
sanctionsonMoscow.HillaryClinton,however,isawarmongerbeholdentothemilitaryindustrial
complex.RussianstateTV,whichhewscloselytotheKremlinsworldview,leaveslittledoubtwho
MoscowsupportsinNovembersUSpresidentialelection:TheDonald.SomeexpertssayTrump
appealstoMoscowbecausePutinbelievesaTrumppresidencywouldbeISOLATIONISTandleave
Russiawithafreehand.TheKremlincantbelieveitsluck,saidKonstantinEggert,anindependent
MoscowbasedanalystwhobelievestheObamaadministrationhasnotbeenforcefulincountering
Russia.PresidentObamaandJohnKerrywereadreamteamforthem,butnowtheyhaveaneven
betteroption;someonewhothinksthatAmericashouldhavenothingtodowiththerestofthe
worldTrumphasreceivedadvicefromLt.GeneralMichaelFlynn,aformerUSmilitaryintelligence
chiefwhoadvocatesbettertieswithRussiaThemutualappreciationofTrumpandPutinhasinvited
comparisonstotheRussianleadersfriendshipwithanotherbillionaireturnedpolitician,ItalysSilvio
Berlusconi,whooutragedUkrainiansandirkedEUleaderslastyearbyvisitingRussianannexed
CrimeawithPutinWedontwantHillary,saidoneRussianofficial,whospokeanonymously
ShesnofriendofRussias.

And:UkraineintelnamesRussianGENERAL[MajorGeneralStepanYaroshchuk]headingmissile
forcesinDonbas,unian.info,3/25

And:IntheKremlin[chiefof0staffSergeiIVANOV]theyhavetermedanexchangeofSavchenko
theoreticallypossible,http://www.rosbalt.ru/federal/2016/03/25/1501224.html

And:AcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainstOlgaLI,adeputyoftheKurskOblastDuma,who
sharplycriticizedPutininarecentinterview:
http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/president/m.2499919.html

And:ARussianspecialistinbridgeconstructionpredictsthereisaseriousdangerthattheKERCH
BRIDGEnowbeingconstructedunderPutinsorderswillCOLLAPSE:mk.ru,3/24

From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 04/07/201612:14:56PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue68

Viewthisemailinyour
browser

April7,2016--Volume13,Issue68

INTHISISSUE
*SiegementalityovercomesPutinsRussia
*MoreIngushfightforIslamicStatethanhadbeenpartoflocalinsurgencyatitsheight
*DespiteUkraineprecedent,CentralAsianNuclear-Weapon-FreeZoneTreatyrelieson
negativesecurityassurances
*whileloopholesintreatypotentiallygiveMoscowfreedomtotransitnuclearweapons
throughCentralAsia

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)

PutinsNewPraetorianGuard

Thisweek(April6),withoutpriorwarningoranymeaningfulpublicdebate,President
VladimirPutinannouncedamassiveoverhaulofsecurity,publicorderandlawenforcementin
Russiabycreatingaspecialnewinternalarmy.Formedimmediatelybypresidentialorder
(ukaz),thenewNationalGuardwillbebasedontheexistingInteriorMinistryTroopsa
200,000strongarmedforcewithmechanizedmotor-riflebrigadesanddivisions,special
troopsandanairforce,previouslysubordinatedtotheinteriorministry,whichisinchargeof
Russiaspoliceforces.TheNationalGuardwillincludenotonlytheInteriorTroopsthatare
mostlymannedbyconscriptsoldiers,butalsospecialparamilitarypoliceunitsknownas
OMONandSOBRaswellastheinterdepartmentalgovernmentsecurityguardservice
(VnevedomstvenayaOkhrana).Theseunitsofcontractservicemennumbersome200,000
andwill,thus,boosttheNationalGuardtoaround400,000(Interfax,April6).

ThecreationoftheNationalGuardrequiresmajorchangestoexistinglegislation.TheKremlin
hasintroducedapackageofbillstotheDumatomaketheNationalGuardalegalentitywith
sweepingpowerstoarrest,interrogateanduseofdeadlyweaponsagainstRussiancivilian
suspectsortroublemakers.PutinexpressedfullconfidencetheDumawouldapprovethe
NationalGuardlegislativepackagewithoutanydelaysotherecouldbenopossible
misunderstandingsbuttheoverhaulisgoingaheadbeforethelegislatorshavetimetoeven
considerthechanges.Byseparateukaz,PutinappointedArmyGeneralViktorZolotov(62)
asthecommander-in-chiefoftheNationalGuard.Zolotovwillbesubordinatedsolelyand
directlytothepresidentandhavetheadministrativerankofacabinetmember(Interfax,April
6).

ZolotovisPutinslong-timecloseassociatefromSt.Petersburgandthepresidentschief
bodyguardandsparringpartnerinboxingandjudo.BorninSt.Petersburg,Zolotovservedin
theKGBbodyguard9thMainDirectorate.From2000,whenPutinbecamepresident,until
2013,Zolotovwasthechiefofthepresidentialsecurityservice.InMay2012,Zolotovwas
appointedapermanentmemberofRussiasSecurityCouncil.In2013,Zolotov,whodidnot
haveanypoliceormilitaryservicebackground,wasappointeddeputycommanderofthe
InteriorTroops.InMay2014,ZolotovbecamecommanderoftheInteriorTroops.Plansto
createaNationalGuardinRussia,basedontheInteriorTroops,havereportedlycirculatedin
theKremlininpreviousyears.Zolotovaprofessionalbodyguard,whomPutinapparently
considersabsolutelyloyalwasclearlybeinggroomedtobecomethecommanderofthenew
jointsecurityforce(Kommersant,April5).

Inanapparentmovetocompensatetheinteriorministry,Putinannouncedthatthe
antinarcoticsservicetheFederalDrugControlService(FSKN)andtheFederal
MigrationService(FMS),whichcontrolsforeignersonRussianterritory,willbemergedwith
theMinistryofInterior.BribesfromillegalimmigrantsandnarcotradersmaketheFSKNand
FMSprimeillegalmoneymakerswithinRussianlawenforcement.BoththeFSKNandFMS
willbetransformedintodirectorateswithintheinteriorministrytheirpresentstaffwillbecut
androtated.Russiasentirepoliceforceisbeingrebooted,andofficerswillbereinstatedinto
newstructures(Kommersant,April5).InRussia,obtainingagoodmoneymakingposition
traditionallyrequirespayingasubstantialbribe,inadvance,tothedecision-makingsuperiors.

PutinhasdeclaredtheNationalGuardsprimetasktobefightingterroristsandorganized
crime,buttheforceseemstoobigandtooheavilyarmedwithnewtanksandotherheavy
weaponsforsuchamission.TheFederalSecurityService(FSB),theInvestigativeCommittee
andtheMinistryofInteriorwillcontinuetoworkorganizedcrimeandterroristthreats,andit
isnotclearhowtheNationalGuardcouldbetheleadingantiterroristoranticrimeforce.In
Soviettimes,theInteriorMinistryTroopswereaheavilyarmedinternalforcecreatedtodeal
withdomesticenemiesthepeopleofRussiaprimarily,whomtheCommunistsalways
consideredaninherentthreat.Today,Putinapparentlybelievestheinternalthreattohisregime
isrisingrapidly,althoughallopinionpollscontinuetoputPutinsapprovalratingsatrecord
highs.Ofcourse,theRussianeconomyisinthedoldrums,masspovertyisontherise,and
socialunrestispossibleinthefuture.Buttheconsensusopinionofsocialscientistsand
pollstersisthatatleasttwotothreemorecalmyearscanbeexpectedahead(Ng.ru,April6).

WhenriggedDumaelectionstriggeredmassantigovernmentdemonstrationsinMoscowatthe
endof2011andinspring2012,theinteriorministrydidnotinitiallydemonstrategreat
efficiencyandstruggledtomusterenoughtrainedmanpowertoeffectivelycontrolthestreets
ofMoscow.In2012thenumberofspecializedanti-riotOMONpoliceinallofRussiawas
estimatedatsome25,000,thenumberstationedpermanentlyinMoscowonlysome2,000.
TheInternalTroopsunitsusedasbackupinMoscowinspring2012wereineptconscripts,
withlessthanayearofserviceundertheirbelts.TheprecinctMoscowpolice,ontheother
hand,arecorrupttheirmoraleislowandtheirriottrainingzero.TheMoscowOMONwas
boostedto6,000byotherOMONunitsflowninfromalloverRussia.ThisleftRussian
provincialcitiesexposedifprotestsspread.ThedifferentOMONsfromvariousregionsare
closelyconnectedtolocalauthoritiestheyhavenevertrainedtogetheranddonotknowother
cities(NovayaGazeta,March2,2012).

PutinssuddendecisiontocreateajointmassivepraetorianNationalGuardbymerging
togetheralltheOMONunitsandtheInteriorTroopsmayhavebeentriggeredbythe
publicationoftheso-calledPanamaPapers,whichdisclosedcorruptoffshorefinancial
schemesthatinvolved,amongothers,someofPutinsclosestacquaintances.TheKremlinhas
accusedtheUSStateDepartmentandtheCentralIntelligenceAgency(CIA)ofbeing
instrumentalintheirpublicationallegedlyaimedatPutin(Interfax,April4).Accordingto
Putinhimself,thereleaseofthePanamaPapersisanattempttoweakenRussiafromthe
inside,tosplitsocietyandunderminetrustinthegovernment.Putinadded:Theywillpitus
oneagainstanother,likeitwasdoneduringthetragictimeofWorldWarI(Interfax,April7).
ApparentlyPutinisreferringtotheBolshevikrevolutionledbyVladimirLenin,whichwas
partiallyfinancedbytheGermanGeneralStaff.Itseems,Putinconsidershimselfassome
besiegedemperorintheKremlin,whileaUS-ledandfinancedrevolutionaryregimechange
hasbeencommenced,withthePanamaPapersasadeclarationofwar.Amassivepraetorian
NationalGuard,headedbyanabsolutelyloyalbodyguard,isseenastheonlymeanstostop
theonslaught.

--PavelFelgenhauer

IngushetiasAuthoritiesFaceDoubleThreatofMilitantsReturningFromSyriaand
SalafisatHome

Fromtheoutside,thesituationinIngushetiaappearsdeceptivelyquiet.Butinreality,the
republicisnotnearlyaspeacefulas,forexample,Adygea,where,despitetensions,noopen
conflicttakesplace.PublicconfrontationsarecommoninIngushetia,ontheotherhand.Also,
theIslamistundergroundmovementintherepubliccouldstillbereinvigorated.OnMarch19,
theIngushetianbranchoftheFederalSecurityService(FSB)announcedtheliftingofthe
counterterroristoperationregimethathadbeenineffectintherepublicsince2014.TheFSB
saidthespecialregimewasbeingliftedbecauseoftheabsenceofaterroristthreatin
Ingushetiastownsandvillages.IsthisacompletevictoryfortheFSB?Notreally.And
realizingthis,Ingushetianauthoritieswarnedtherepublicsresidentsthatthecounterterrorist
operationregimeisstillinplaceintheforestedmountainousareasofNazran,Sunzhaand
Malgobekdistrictsbecausethereisinformationaboutmovementsofmilitantsinthoseareas.
Untilaspecialannouncement,temporaryrestrictionsandcounterterroristmeasureswillbein
place(Mk.ru,March20).

SomeareasofNazranandSunzhadistrictscanbedescribedasforestedmountainsbut
nothingevenremotelyresemblingmountainsexistsinIngushetiasMalgobekdistrict,whichis
inthenorthernpartoftherepublic.Ingushetiaconsistsonlyoffourdistrictsand,accordingto
thegovernmentsannouncement,theregimeofheightenedsecuritycontinuesinthreeofthem
becauseoftheinformationaboutmovementsofmilitants.Thus,thepublicstatementsof
officialsaboutliftingthecounterterroristregimeinIngushetiashouldbeseenaslittlemorethan
aPRcampaignfortheRussianmedia.

TheactivitiesofIngushetiasShariajamaatweresubstantiallyundercutbackin2010,when
theRussiansecurityservicesmanagedtocaptureitsleader,AmirMagas.Histrialtookplace
inthecityofRostov-on-DonbecausetheauthoritieswereafraidtoholditinIngushetia.
Magaswassentencedtotwolifetermsinprison(Regnum,July9,2015).

OneofthelastIngushrebel amirseliminatedbytheRussiansecurityserviceswasBeslan
Makhauri,whowaskilledonOctober31,2015(Interfax.ru,October31,2015).Shortly
beforehisdeath,Makhaurimanagedtoswearanoathofallegiancetotheso-calledcaliphof
theIslamicState(IS),AbuBakral-Baghdadi.Makhaurisoathmadetheterritoryof
IngushetiapartoftheISCaliphate.SomemembersoftheCaucasusEmirateinIngushetia
didnotagreetojointheISandmadethisknowntothepublicviatheShariajamaatswebsite
(Hunafa.com,September5,2015).Thosewhocontrolthatwebsitearestillhopingthe
CaucasusEmiratesfollowerswillprevailinIngushetia.Thewebsite,however,postsIslamic
textsinsteadofnewsofwhathappeningintherepublic.

Since2015,IngushetiasleadershiphashadtodealwithanewheadacheISrecruitswho
havetriedtotraveltoSyriatojointhemilitants.DuringIngushetianGovernorYunus-Bek
YevkurovslastmeetingwithrelativesofthosewholefttherepublicforSyria,officialssaid
that200IngushwerefightinginSyria.Theauthoritiessaidthattheydeterminedtheexact
locationof99Ingushmilitantsandwerelookingfortherest(YouTube,March3).

MultiplearrestsofpeoplewhowenttoSyriaandreturnedtotheNorthCaucasusindicatethat
thesituationintherepublicisfarfromnormal.Theauthoritieshaverecentlylauncheda
criminalinvestigationagainsta22-year-oldresidentoftherepublicwhowenttoSyriainJuly
2013andfoughtalongsidetheIslamicState.Theauthoritieschargedthesuspectwith
participationinanarmedformationinaforeigncountry.Thepenaltyforthatcrimeisfiveto
tenyearsinprison,butifthesuspectvoluntarilyendshisparticipationinthearmedgroupand
givesuphisweapons,thechargesagainsthimmaybedropped(KavkazskyUzel,March28).
InIngushetia,theauthoritiesdetainreturneesfromSyriapracticallyeveryweek,accordingto
newsreportsfromtherepublic.

TheauthoritiesofIngushetiashouldbeconcernedaboutresidentsoftherepublicwhoare
fightingintheMiddleEast.ThenumberofIngushmilitantsintheMiddleEastismuchgreater
thanthenumberofmemberstheIngush jamaathadduring20042010,itsheyday.Even
duringtheIngushjamaatsbestdays,itnumberedonlyseveraldozenpeople.Hence,the200
IngushmilitantsfightinginSyriaposeaseriouschallengetothegovernmentofIngushetia
againstthebackdropoftheslowstabilizationprocessintherepublicsince2010.Theactual
numberofIngushetiansfightinginSyriamaybeevenhigherthanofficiallyannounced.

Ingushetiasauthoritiesaredealingwithotherproblems,suchastheconfrontationwiththe
Salafists,whoprovidenon-militarysupporttothemilitants.TheleadersofthelocalSalafists,
IsaTsechoevandKhamzatChumakov,havegainedsuchgreatinfluenceinthesocietythatthe
governmentcannotaffordtostopthemfrompreachingorshutdowntheirmosque,which
thousandsofMuslimsattendeveryFriday.TheSalafistmosqueandthemilitantsreturning
fromSyriaarethetwomainpointsofconcernfortherepublicanauthorities.Theauthorities
andthesecurityservicesrealizethattheSalafistsinIngushetiaarestrongandinfluential.The
republicisstillintransition,howeverandthenextyearortwowillbecrucialforthefutureof
Ingushetia.Bythen,itwillbecomeclearwhethertheSalafistsandthegovernmentwillclash
witheachotherorreachanagreement.

--MairbekVatchagaev

CentralAsianNuclear-Weapon-FreeZone:ALongGestation

(PartOne)

KazakhstansPresidentNursultanNazarbayevparticipatedintheNuclearSecuritySummitin
Washington,DC,onMarch30April2,wherehemetwithUnitedStatesPresidentBarack
Obama(Kazinform,April2).Kazakhstanhaslongbeenrecognizedasaglobalexampleon
nucleardisarmamentandnonproliferation.Thecountrywillinglygaveupitsmassivenuclear
arsenalandnuclearmaterialsstockpiles,inheritedfromtheSovietUnionafter1991.Since
then,Kazakhstanhastirelesslyadvocatedfornuclearnonproliferationontheinternational
stage.Beingtheworldslargestproducerandexporterofnaturaluranium,Kazakhstanworks
closelywiththeInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)andtheUStoenhancesafety
andsecurityinitsuraniumminingandprocessing.

NucleardisarmamentandnonproliferationformacenterpieceofKazakhstansforeignpolicy
initsownregionandbeyond.Suchactivismstems,inpart,fromanationaltrauma.Morethan
theotherCentralAsiancountries,Kazakhstansufferedmassivedemographicandecological
damagefromtheSovietUnionsnuclearweaponstests,recklesspracticesinuraniummining
andstorage,andthedumpingofradioactiveandtoxicwaste.Kazakhstanssubsequent
championshipofnucleardisarmamentandnonproliferation,however,isalsoaneffortto
ensurethatnuclearweaponsarenotre-introducedontoitsterritoryandinCentralAsia
generally.

Russiaisthesourceofconcernsinthatregard.TheObamaadministrationhasmanifested
concernaboutRussiaretaininghypotheticaloptionstore-introducenuclearweaponsinto
CentralAsia(seebelow).Butthereislittlepublicdiscussiononthismatter,andthereareno
reliabletreatysafeguardsagainstsuchahypotheticalpossibility.

AllfiveCentralAsiancountriesaresignatorytothe2009TreatyonaCentralAsianNuclear-
Weapon-FreeZone(CANWFZTreaty).Theynegotiateditamongthemselves(Kazakhstan
beingthemostactive),withinputsalongthewayfromthenuclearpowers,which,however,
arenotpartiestothistreaty.ApplyingtotheCentralAsiancountriesonly,thetreatys
obligationsarewillinglyassumedandlegallybinding.Thetreatysignificantlyadvancesnuclear
non-proliferationandnuclearsafety,andisvaluedassuchintheregion.

TheCANWFZtreatyobligatesthosestatesnottodevelop,produce,acquire,stockpile,orin
anyformhavecontrolovernuclearweaponsorothernuclearexplosivesnottoseek,receive,
orofferanyassistancetowardthosepurposesnottocarryoutnucleartestsoranynuclear
explosions,andtoprohibitsuchtestsandexplosionsontheirterritoriestouseanynuclear
materialandinstallationsontheirterritoriesforexclusivelypeacefulpurposesandto
cooperatewiththeIAEAinensuringphysicalprotectionofnuclearinstallations,equipment
andmaterialinstorageandtransportation,soastopreventunauthorizeduseortheft(US
StateDepartment,TreatiesDataBaseHome,CANWFZTreaty,accessedApril5).

Thistreatyhadalsobeenexpectedtoprecludeanynuclearpowerfromintroducingnuclear
weaponsorexplosivesontotheterritoriesofthoseCentralAsianstates.Suchmovesmight
havebeenprecludedbymakingitillegalforthefivetreatysignatoriestoaccepttheentryof
nuclearweaponsorexplosivesontheirterritories,atthehypotheticalbehestofanuclear
power.

Amongthenuclearpowers,Russiaaloneretainsthattheoreticaloptionthroughsome
ambiguitiesandloopholesinthetreaty.TheUnitedStates,theUnitedKingdomandFrance
expressedobjectionsandreservationstothosepotentiallylaxprovisionsduringthelong-
drawnnegotiationsovertheTreatyandafterithadbeensigned.

Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,TurkmenistanandUzbekistannegotiatedtheCANWFZ
Treatyfrom1993onward,beforesigningitin2006,inSemipalatinsk(Semei),theformer
SovietnuclearweaponstestingsiteinKazakhstan.Russiainfluencedthenegotiationsandthe
finaltextfrombackstage,apparentlymoreeffectivelythantheUSdidupfront.Thefinaltext
(whichhassinceenteredintoforce)containspotentialopeningsforRussiannuclearweapons
toenterCentralAsiancountries(seePartTwo).

ThethreeWesternnuclearpowers,therefore,stayedawayfromtheCANWFZtreaty-signing
ceremonysoughtre-negotiationorrevisionofobjectionableprovisionsandvotedagainst
twoUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyresolutionsthatwelcomedthetreatyssigningandthe
establishmentofanuclear-weapon-freezoneinCentralAsia.Thethreepowerswere
concernedthatRussiawouldstillbeabletotransportnuclearweaponsthroughCentralAsia
ordeploytheminthefuture.Kazakhstanadmittedthattheissueremainedopento
interpretation.In2010,then-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonannouncedthattheUSwas
willingtocontinueconsultationswiththeCentralAsianstatestoresolvethosedisagreements
(ScottParrish,WilliamPotter:CentralAsianStatesEstablishNuclear-Weapon-FreeZone
DespiteU.S.Opposition,CenterforNonproliferationStudies,September9,2006Nti.org,
accessedApril4,2016).

AccompanyingtheCANWFZTreatyisaProtocolonnegativesecurityassurances(pledges
torefrainfromcertainactionsseePartTwo),signedbythefivedeclarednuclearpowers.
ThoseassurancesareofferedtoeachofthefiveCentralAsianstates,whichhoweverarenot
partiestotheProtocolthataccompaniesthetreaty.TheProtocolisalsolegallybinding.The
Westernnuclearpowers,therefore,delayedtheProtocolssigning,apparentlyseekingto
revisitthetreatystext.Theyofficiallyrecordedtheirreservationsaboutthetreatywhenfinally
signingtheProtocolin2014.Thetreatyitself,signedin2006andratifiedbythefivestates,is
inforcesince2009.TheProtocol,however,isnotyetinforce,intheabsenceofUS
ratification(seePartTwo).

--VladimirSocor

CentralAsianNuclear-Weapon-FreeZone:ALongGestation

(PartTwo)

Westernnuclearpowershaveexpressedobjectionsregardingseveralprovisionsofthe
CentralAsianNuclear-Weapon-FreeZone(CANWFZ)Treaty(USStateDepartment,
TreatiesDataBaseHome,CANWFZTreaty,accessedApril5).Thetreaty,signedby
CentralAsiasfivecountries,iscurrentlyinforcebuttheaccompanyingProtocolonsecurity
assurances,signedbythefivenuclearpowers,isnotinforceintheabsenceofratificationby
theUnitedStates(seePartOne).

Underthetreatysarticle3,Each[CentralAsian]partyundertakes[]nottoallowinits
territorytheproduction,acquisition,stationing,storage,oruseofanynuclearweaponorother
nuclearexplosivedevice.Thisclause,however,failstodisallowtransportationortransit
throughCentralAsiasstates.Russiacouldtheoreticallyusethisloopholetoinduceorcajolea
countryintoallowingsuchtransportationortransit.

Thetreatysarticle12mightevenprovidealegalexcuseforthat.Underthisclause,This
treatydoesnotaffecttherightsandobligationsofthe[CentralAsian]partiesunderother
internationaltreaties,whichtheymayhaveconcludedpriortothedateoftheentryintoforce
ofthistreaty.

ThatclauseiswidelyseenasareferencetotheCollectiveSecurityTreaty(CST),thelegal
baseoftheRussia-ledCollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization(CSTO).Thisreferenceisa
RussianinputintotheCANWFZTreaty,whichisanaccordamongfiveCentralAsian
countriestowhichRussiaisnotaparty.ItaimstocompromisetheCANWFZTreatyby
assertingthattheCSTtreatytakesprecedence.TheUShasrepeatedlyobjectedtoarticle12
duringthenegotiationandratificationprocessesoftheCANWFZTreatyandthe
accompanyingProtocolonsecurityassurances.

RussiacouldpotentiallyinvoketheCSTtreatysclausesonmilitaryassistancetojustify
introducing(ortransiting,transportingseeabove)nuclearordual-capableweaponsin
CentralAsiancountries.Kazakhstan,KyrgyzstanandTajikistanareCSTOmembers
Uzbekistanhas,since2012,suspendeditsmembershipwhileTurkmenistanisaneutralstate
byitsownchoice,symbolicallyapprovedattheUNandotherforums,butnotcoveredby
anyguarantees.

Insum,theCANWFZTreatyhasaddedsomenewambiguitiestothepre-existingones.Seen
inthislight,CANWFZTreatysdispute-adjudicationmechanismlooksineffective:Disputes
betweenthepartiesinvolvingtheinterpretationorapplicationofthistreatyshallbesettled
throughnegotiationsorbyothermeansasmaybedeemednecessarybytheparties.This
treatysdepositary,responsibleinteraliaforhandlingsignatoriesnotificationsaboutpossible
disagreements,isKyrgyzstanwhereasthedepositaryofothernuclear-weapon-free-zone
treatiesistheUNSecretaryGeneralsoffice.Unlikethenuclear-weapon-freezonesin
SoutheastAsia,theSouthPacific,AfricaandLatinAmerica(includingtheCaribbean),the
CANWFZTreatydoesnotprovidefortheestablishmentofacommissionorsimilarbodyto
overseeimplementationandverifycompliancewiththetreaty(Nti.org,accessedApril5).

ThefivedeclarednuclearpowerssignedaProtocolonnegativesecurityassurancesonMay
6,2014,forthebenefitofnuclear-weapon-freeCentralAsianstates.ThisProtocolhadlong
beenexpectedtoaccompanytheCANWFZTreaty.But,giventhatbothdocumentsare
definedaslegallybinding,theWesternnuclearpowersseemedreluctanttoassumebinding
commitmentsaslongastheCANWFZTreatysambiguitiesandloopholesremainedopen.
ThefivenuclearpowerssignedtheProtocolalmosteightyearsafterthetreatyhadbeen
signed.

WhatfinallycatalyzedtheProtocolssigningwasthecollapseoftheBudapestMemorandum
onsecurityassurancesbythenuclearpowerstoUkraineinFebruary2014.Theassurancesto
Ukrainehadalsobeennegativeonesforthemostparti.e.,thenuclearpowers(meaning,for
allpracticalpurposes,Russia)wouldrefrainfromtakingcertainhostileactionsagainst
Ukraine,inreturnforUkrainebecomingano-nuclear-weaponstate.Inthewakeofthe
BudapestMemorandumsfiasco,thethreeWesternnuclearpowersapparentlydeemed
necessarytooffertheirnegativesecurityassurances,alongsideRussiasandChinas,tothe
CentralAsiannuclear-weapon-freestates.However,theyattachedreservationsreflecting
differencesovertheinterpretationofsometreatyclauses.

ThisProtocolsassurances,moreover,arefarnarrower,comparedwiththosethatUkraine
hadreceived.AnotherdifferenceisthatFranceandChinaaccededtotheBudapest
Memorandumseparately,andonlyafterithadbeenfinalizedbyRussia,theUSandthe
UnitedKingdomwithUkraine.TheProtocolaccompanyingtheNWFZTreaty,however,has
beensignedbythefivenuclearpowerstogether.

UndertheProtocol,Eachpartyundertakesnottouseorthreatentouseanuclearweaponor
othernuclearexplosivedeviceagainstanypartytotheCANWFZTreatyEachparty[to
theProtocol]undertakesnottocontributetoanyactthatconstitutesaviolationofthe
CANWFZTreatyorofthisProtocol,bypartiestothem.Thelatterclausemaybereadin
partaspledgingnottoinstigateviolations(Disarmament.un.org,accessedApril4).

Sincethen,France,theUK(withreservations)andChina(apparentlywithoutreservations)
haveratifiedtheProtocol.

RussiahasratifieditwithreservationsofficiallycreditedtoPresidentVladimirPutin.Thus,
RussiashallnotbeboundbytheProtocolifanypartytotheCANWFZTreatyallowsany
formoftransitofnuclearweaponsorothernuclearexplosivedevicesthroughitsterritory
(TASS,March12,April20,2015).ThisimpliesthatRussiamayrevoketheassurancesnotto
useorthreatentousenuclearweapons,intheeventthataCentralAsianstateallowsa
countryotherthanRussiatoconductthosetypesoftransit.Meanwhile,Russiamayinterpret
theCANWFZTreatyasallowingRussiatoconductsuchtransitinCentralAsia(seeabove).

TheUSSenateisexpectedtotakeitstimewiththeratificationandhasreservationsofits
own.Thus,theProtocolisnotyetinforce.

AttheNuclearSecuritySummit,justheldinWashington,Ukrainecirculatedastatementabout
thedefunctBudapestMemorandum.ItnotedthatRussia,aproviderofsecurityassurancesto
Ukraineunderthatdocument,hadviolateditwithimpunity,renderingsuchassurances
meaningless(Nss.2016.org,April2).Assurances,letalonethoseofthenegativetype,areno
substituteforpositivesecurityguarantees.

--VladimirSocor
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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/24/201608:58:38AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"themoscowtimes.com,3/23

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Thursday,March24,20168:58AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"themoscowtimes.com,3/23

And:TheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairs:LAVROVandKERRYdiscussedSavchenkoattheir
meetinginMoscow,newsru.com,3/24

And:KremlinsaysitknowsnothingaboutPoroshenkoPutinDEALonSavchenko,unian.info,3/23

And:NAVALNYIblog:ConcerningtheSavchenkocase,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corrup0tion/1734764echo/

NomatterfromwhatangleyoulookatthecaseitisunprofitableforRussiaanddirectlycontradicts
notonlythelongterminterestsofRussiabutevenPutinstacticalgoals.[Heexplainswhy]

And:CanMinsk2beimplemented?Thewarofinterpretationsofthepeaceagreements,
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/72348.html?print=1

And:HillaryCLINTON[inspeechyesterdayatStanford]dismisses[Republican]rivalsforreckless
actionsinforeignpolicy,nytimes.com,3/24

ClintononWednesdayridiculedtheforeignpolicyprescriptionsofDonaldJ.TrumpandSenatorTed
Cruz,callingthemrecklessactionsthatwouldalienateAmericasclosestallies,demonizeMuslims
andEMPOWERRUSSIA.IfMr.Trumpgetshisway,itwillbelikeChristmasintheKremlin,Mrs.
Clintonsaid.ItwillmakeAmericalesssafeandtheworldmoredangerous.

And:The[Russianeconomic]Depressionwilllastalongtime,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/federal/2016/03/22/1500162.html

And:Russianslost200billionrubles[$2.9billion]from[private]pensionsavingsin2015,
themoscowtimes.com,3/24

And:DuetotheeconomiccrisisRussianshavestoppedshoppinginopenairmarketswherethe
qualityoffoodisbetterandareshoppinginchaingrocerystorestosavemoney.26%havehadto
reducetheirpurchasesofgroceries:http://www.newsru.com/finance/24mar2016/ruretailpref_html

And:ViewsofNikolaiPETROV,formerlyofCarnegieMoscow:Pain,angerandhatred.Threelessons
forRussiannationalistsfromtheUkrainiancrisis,http://slon.ru/posts/65611

And:OnthedemotionofSergeiMIRONENKO,longtermheadoftheRussianArchives:Battleinthe
ArchivesUncoveringRussiassecretpast,themsocowtimes.com,3/24

Thesacrificeofthe28PanfilovsguardsmenbecameaSovietsymbolButlastyear,thestoryitself
becameabattleground.SergeiMironenko,thelongtimedirectoroftheRussianStateArchive,
denouncedthetaleasafakeandpublisheddocumentstoproveit.Inthestormthatfollowedthe
revelation,VladimirMedinskytheRussiancultureminister,attackedMironenko.InmidMarch
Mironenkowasdemoted.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/24/201601:15:08PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[AVERYRICHAFTERNOON/ESTRUN]JanuszB'snewarticleonNATO....[JDDD3-24I&II]Fwd:"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO's
Subject:
sentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"+10MoreStoriesFwd:AnneApplebaumonUkraine.....BBC:RUTrollFacto...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,March24,201610:58AM
Subject:Fwd:[AVERYRICHAFTERNOON/ESTRUN]JanuszB'snewarticleonNATO....[JDDD3-24I&II]Fwd:"Thewaitinggame:
SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"+10MoreStoriesFwd:AnneApplebaumonUkraine.....BBC:RUTroll
Facto...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Thu,Mar24,2016at1:56PM
Subject:[AVERYRICHAFTERNOON/ESTRUN]JanuszB'snewarticleonNATO....[JDDD3-24I&II]Fwd:"Thewaiting
game:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"+10MoreStoriesFwd:AnneApplebaumon
Ukraine.....BBC:RUTrollFactoryFakedVideoofUSSoldierShootingAtQuran.....AC:CanMinskDeliveraSustainable
Peace?
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JanuszBugajski<jbugajski.usa@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,Mar24,2016at11:22AM
Subject:MynewarticleonNATO
To:JanuszBugajski<jbugajski.usa@gmail.com>

http://www.cepa.org/content/nato-imperative

JanuszBugajski
CenterforEuropeanPolicyAnalysis

WashingtonDC
www.jbugajski.com

heNATOImperative

ByJanuszBugajski
March24,2016
ThisweekRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpassertedthathewantedtoreduceU.S.commitmentstothe
NATOalliance.GiventhegravityofsuchaproposalitbecomesimperativetounderscorewhytheNorthAtlanticAlliance
remainsessentialnotonlyforprovidingsecurityforCentralandEasternEuropebutalsoforprecludingconflictsthat
couldagainembroiltheUnitedStates.

TheNATOallianceisindispensableforfourcorereasons.First,thereisnoviablealternativetoNATOsmilitarystructure
becausetheEuropeanUniondoesnotprovidesecurityforstatesfacingpotentialaggression.TheEUsCommonForeign
andSecurityPolicyisprimarilyadiplomaticmechanism,whichopenlyacknowledgesthatNATOremainsresponsiblefor
Europesterritorialdefense.AlthoughtheEUhasengagedinpeacekeeping,policing,andhumanitarianmissions,NATO
possessesthemaincombatforcenotonlyofitsEuropeanmembersbutmostimportantlyoftheUS.

ThesecondreasonaneffectiveNATOisneededisthatitcontributestoensuringtheinstitutionalintegrityofmembers
andpromotesregionalstabilitybetweenthem.Itsentrystipulationsincludefunctionalstatehood,minorityrights,civilian
controloverthemilitary,andsettledborderswithneighbors.Allnewmembersneededtofulfillthesecriteriaandsuch
conditionalityalsogeneratesconfidenceforforeigninvestorsandsetsthestagefortheintegrationofmemberstatesinto
theEU.

ThethirdrationaleforastrongNATOthatembracesqualifiedaspirantsrevolvesaroundthesovereignchoiceofevery
independentstatetodetermineitsalliancesandsecuritylinksandnotremainvulnerabletopressurefrompredatory
powerssuchasRussia.IfMoscowsneighborsjoinNATO,thisposesnothreattoRussiassecuritycontrarytothe
Kremlinsclaims.However,membershipdoesthwartRussiasabilitytocontrolthesecountriessecurityposturesand
foreignpolicies.

AnaccommodationistWesternapproachthatconcedessomespecialnationalintereststoRussiatowarditsformer
coloniesisnotonlyunacceptabletoallindependentstatesthatemergedfromtheSovietbloc,butitalsowhetsMoscows
appetiteforfurtherimperialaggrandizement.IftheKremlinoperateswiththeconvictionthatithasafreehandto
methodicallyunderminecountriesalongitsborders,thiscouldresultinseriousmiscalculationsandsparkconflictswith
AlliancemembersandtheUSitself.

ThefourthfundamentalreasonwhyaNATOmilitarypresenceparticularlyinEuropeseastisvitalisthatitformsthemost
effectivedeterrentandrespondertomajornewthreats.TwocorechallengesemanatefromRussia:expansionand
implosion.Moscow'sprimaryobjectiveistorestoreRussiaasapoleofpowerandreverseUSinfluenceinEurope.This
hasgeneratedthesubversionofneighbors,proxywars,andevenoutrightRussianmilitaryinvasions,asevidentin
GeorgiaandUkraine,togetherwithperiodicthreatsagainstNATOseasternflank.

RussiaspotentialimplosioncouldforeshadowanevenmoreunpredictablefutureinwhichNATOwouldneedtomanage
themulti-regionalrepercussions.AnoverstretchedRussiamaywitnessescalatingeconomic,social,political,andsub-
regionalturmoilandpresentevenmoremenacingtestsforWesternpolicy.AhugefailedstateonEuropesdoorstep
wouldhavenumerousdestabilizingconsequenceswhetherrefugeeoutflows,thespilloverofviolence,orcivilwars,
togetherwiththeemergenceofunpredictablenewstates.NATOneedstoassessthepossibleconsequencesofthe
chaoticdownfallofthePutinistsystemandpreparecontingenciesfortheconflictsthatthismaygenerate.Inparticular,
Russiasneighborsmustbeshieldedfromthemostdestabilizingconflictscenarios,whichcouldspillontoNATO
territory.

NATOsEuropeanflankremainsdependentontheUSforitssecurity,particularlyasmanyWestEuropeanalliesare
failingintheirmutualdefenseresponsibilities.Washingtonprovides70%ofallNATOdefensespending,whileEuropes
contributiontoNATOsmilitarycapabilitiesislessthan25%.Severalcountrieshavedecimatedtheirbudgetsand
equipmenttosuchanextentthattheymaybeincapableofdeployingmorethanafewthousandtroopsintheeventof
outrightwar.Meanwhile,Russiaisre-armingtothetuneof$700billionoverthenextdecadeandplanstointroducethe
nextgenerationofarmor,aircraftandmissiles,andtomodernizeitsnuclearforces.

SincetheendoftheColdWar,USofficialshaveproddedtheirEuropeancounterpartstoincreasedefensespendingin
linewithNATOguidelinesof2%ofGDP.OverthepastdecadeonlyahandfulofNATOmembershaveconsistentlymet
Alliancerequirements.Inadditiontoincreasedfunding,theEuropeansmustpursuemilitarymodernizationandeliminate
waste,duplication,andmismanagementIfthecurrentfeeblenessindefensespendingcontinues,thenextUSpresident
willcomeunderincreasingdomesticpressuretocurtailAmericascommitmenttoEuropessecurity.

Nonetheless,intheclamoroverbudgets,WashingtonmustnotlosesightofthebenefitsthatNATOultimatelybringsto
theUS.Inadditiontointelligencesharingandmultilateralpoliticalandmilitarycooperationinconfrontingcommon
challenges,theAllianceremainsthemosteffectivetoolforpreventinganysinglepowerfromdominatingEuropea
scenariothatdraggedtheUSintotwodestructivewarsduringthe20thcentury.

ThefurtherweakeningofNATOwouldsimplyprovokenewaggressionbothagainstandwithinEurope,andtheultimate
costtoAmericawouldbefargreaterthanthecurrentone.TheEUitselffacesexistentialproblems,stemmingfromits
institutional,financial,andpoliticaldisputes.Inapotentiallyunstableandfracturingcontinent,NATOremainsthesole
multinationalorganizationthatcanprovideEuropewithsomemeasureofcoherenceaswellasabindingtransatlanticlink
withWashington.

BacktoEurope'sEdge...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Thu,Mar24,2016at11:58AM
Subject:"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"themoscowtimes.com,3/23
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

"Thewaitinggame:SAVCHENKO'ssentencingpushesRussiatothenegotiatingtable,"
themoscowtimes.com,3/23

And:TheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairs:LAVROVandKERRYdiscussedSavchenkoattheir
meetinginMoscow,newsru.com,3/24

And:KremlinsaysitknowsnothingaboutPoroshenko-PutinDEALonSavchenko,unian.info,3/23

And:NAVALNYIblog:ConcerningtheSavchenkocase,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corrup0tion/1734764-echo/

NomatterfromwhatangleyoulookatthecaseitisunprofitableforRussiaanddirectlycontradicts
notonlythelong-terminterestsofRussiabutevenPutinstacticalgoals.[Heexplainswhy]

And:CanMinsk-2beimplemented?Thewarofinterpretationsofthepeaceagreements,
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/72348.html?print=1

And:HillaryCLINTON[inspeechyesterdayatStanford]dismisses[Republican]rivalsforreckless
actionsinforeignpolicy,nytimes.com,3/24

ClintononWednesdayridiculedtheforeignpolicyprescriptionsofDonaldJ.TrumpandSenatorTed
Cruz,callingthemrecklessactionsthatwouldalienateAmericasclosestallies,demonizeMuslimsand
EMPOWERRUSSIA.IfMr.Trumpgetshisway,itwillbelikeChristmasintheKremlin,Mrs.Clinton
said.ItwillmakeAmericalesssafeandtheworldmoredangerous.

And:The[Russianeconomic]Depressionwilllastalongtime,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/federal/2016/03/22/1500162.html

And:Russianslost200billionrubles[$2.9billion]from[private]pensionsavingsin2015,
themoscowtimes.com,3/24

And:DuetotheeconomiccrisisRussianshavestoppedshoppinginopenairmarketswherethequality
offoodisbetterandareshoppinginchaingrocerystorestosavemoney.26%havehadtoreducetheir
purchasesofgroceries:http://www.newsru.com/finance/24mar2016/ruretailpref_html

And:ViewsofNikolaiPETROV,formerlyofCarnegieMoscow:Pain,angerandhatred.Threelessons
forRussiannationalistsfromtheUkrainiancrisis,http://slon.ru/posts/65611

And:OnthedemotionofSergeiMIRONENKO,long-termheadoftheRussianArchives:Battleinthe
ArchivesUncoveringRussiassecretpast,themsocowtimes.com,3/24

Thesacrificeofthe28PanfilovsguardsmenbecameaSovietsymbolButlastyear,thestoryitself
becameabattleground.SergeiMironenko,thelongtimedirectoroftheRussianStateArchive,
denouncedthetaleasafakeandpublisheddocumentstoproveit.Inthestormthatfollowedthe
revelation,VladimirMedinskytheRussiancultureminister,attackedMironenko.Inmid-March
Mironenkowasdemoted.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Thu,Mar24,2016at1:08PM
Subject:FW:MichaelKimmelmanonpublicspaces,IanBurumaonBrussels,AnneApplebaumonUkraine
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

From:TheNewYorkReviewofBooks[mailto:newsletters@nybooks.com]
Sent:Wednesday,March23,201611:30AM
To:JohnBDunlop
Subject:MichaelKimmelmanonpublicspaces,IanBurumaonBrussels,AnneApplebaumonUkraine

Newonnybooks.com:MichaelKimmelmanontheneedforpublicspaces,Anne
ApplebaumonUkrainianhistory,IanBurumaonBrusselsandthefutureofEurope,and
RobynCreswellonwhatSyrianswantfortheircountryafterfiveyearsofwar.

IntheReviewsApril7issue

TheCravingforPublicSquares
MichaelKimmelman

TheVictoryofUkraine IntheCapitalofEurope
AnneApplebaum IanBuruma

History,journalism,andthestruggle Brusselshasbeenahavenfordissidents,
forindependence misfits,bohemians,andrefugees

Alsointhisissue:PerryLinkonMaospoetry,DavidRieffonUNpeacekeeping,
RobertWinteronCharlesRosensrecordings,andmore

NYRDaily

VoicesfromaDifferentSyria
RobynCreswell

Calendar

Fischli/Weiss AstroNoise Removed

TwoSwissartistswho LauraPoitrassnewwork EricPickersgill


defyconventionalnotions concernssystemsof makesportraitsofpeople
ofthepropermaterial secretsurveillancethat lockedinanintimategaze
fromwhichtomakeart haveproliferatedsince withamissingdevice
9/11

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<jm200p@mac.com>
Date:Thu,Mar24,2016at12:14PM
Subject:BBCSaysRussiasTrollFactoryFakedaVideoShowingaUSSoldierShootingataQuran
To:

http://globalvoices.org/2016/03/23/bbc-says-russias-troll-factory-faked-a-video-showing-a-us-soldier-shooting-at-a-koran/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NewCampaign&utm_term=*SituationReport

From:ACEurasiaCenter<eurasiaevents@atlanticcouncil.org>
Date:2016-03-2413:02GMT-04:00
Subject:CanMinskDeliveraSustainablePeace?
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

Toviewthisemailasawebpage,gohere.

CanMinskDeliveraSustainable
Peace?
ByMelindaHaring

Don'tMesswithKyiv's
Activists
ByJoshCohen

SeparatistsLaunchNew
"Passportization"Strategyin
EasternUkraine
ByAgniaGrigas

RecommendedReads
UkrainePilotSingsasRussiaJailsHerFor22YearsviaTheDailyBeast
Ukraine'sColdWarEraTanksRefitforModernDayWarfareviaBloomberg
Business
RevitalizingtheMinskAgreementviaProjectSyndicate
BodyofUkrainianReporterGongadzeFinallyBuriedviaRFE/RL
GroysmanasUkraine'sPrimeMinisterWouldSinkReformDrive,Further
ErodePublicSupportviaKyivPost
Russia's'New'ToolsforConfrontingtheWest:ContinuityandInnovationin
Moscow'sExerciseofPowerviaChathamHouse

UkraineAlertispublishedbytheAtlanticCouncil's 2015AtlanticCouncil
UkraineInitiative. Allrightsreserved.

Thisemailwassentto:waz2102@columbia.edu

Thisemailwassentby:AtlanticCouncil
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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/22/201609:36:46AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[THEVERDICTISIN!!]TIMEGIVEN:22YEARS----VENUE:"HELL'SWAITINGROOM"......FROMMOJO,LES&ODDailyDigest

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,March22,20168:26AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[THEVERDICTISIN!!]TIMEGIVEN:22YEARS----VENUE:"HELL'SWAITINGROOM"......FROMMOJO,LES&ODDailyDigest

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<jm200p@mac.com>
Date:Tue,Mar22,2016at9:58AM
Subject:Verdict-22yrs!!!
To:waz<waz2102@columbia.edu>

ThisjustcameinontheAPwire!

http://bigstory.ap.org/baa097c5772c41feb0d7e75edd68a20b

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>
Date:Tue,Mar22,2016at10:21AM
Subject:***UkeNewsUpdate#847[FINALVERDICT:22YEARS---"INHELL'SWAITINGROOM"]
To:wazWAZ<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,"drdenny324@gmail.com"<drdenny324@gmail.com>,"nestory@juno.com"
<nestory@juno.com>,PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>,SAMO<samoklaus@hotmail.com>,27MORE

Finalverdict:
RussiasentencedNadiaSavchenkoto
22yearsinprison
:http://old.tsn.ua/politika/virok-savchenko-615505.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Mar22,2016at10:06AM
Subject:Ukraine:NYT,WP-newsflashWP,NYT.....[ONN/SVERDICT]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

TheNewYorkTimes
RussianCourtSentencesUkraine'sSavchenkoto22YearsinJail
ByREUTERSMARCH22,2016,9:54A.M.E.D.T.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2016/03/22/world/europe/22reuters-ukraine-crisis-russia-savchenko.html?ref=world

DONETSK,RussiaARussiancourtonTuesdaysentencedUkrainianpilotNadezhdaSavchenkoto22yearsinjailafter
findingherguiltyofcomplicityinthekillingoftwoRussianjournalistsduringtheseparatistconflictineasternUkraine.

Savchenko,a34-year-oldwhohasbecomeanationalheroathomeinUkraine,wasdefiantastheverdictwasreadout,shouting
outaUkrainiansongandforcingthejudgeLeonidStepanenkotocallabriefadjournment.

Savchenkowascapturedbypro-MoscowrebelsineasternUkraineinJune2014duringtheseparatistconflictthereandhanded
overtoRussiawhereshewaschargedwithdirectingmortarfirewhichkilledthetwoRussianjournalists.

Shehasdeniedwrongdoing,and,fromtheglassandmetalcagewhereshehasbeenheldinthecourtroom,hasoftenshoutedher
viewthatsheisthevictimofashowtrialaimedathumiliatingUkraine.

Russianofficialshavesignalledthat,oncethetrialisover,theymaybeopentonegotiationsabouthandingSavchenkooverto
Ukraine,possiblyaspartofaprisonerexchange.

(ReportingbyDmitrySolovyovWritingbyChristianLoweEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
TheWashingtonPost/AP
RussiancourtsentencesUkrainianpilotNadezhdaSavchenkoto22yearsinprison.
ByAssociatedPressMarch22at9:44AM
DONETSK,RussiaRussiancourtsentencesUkrainianpilotNadezhdaSavchenkoto22yearsinprison.

TheWashingtonPost
Reports:RussiancourtpoisedtoconvictUkrainesJoanofArcindeathsofjournalists
ByMichaelBirnbaumandAndrewRothMarch21at1:50PM(March22printedition)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-court-finds-ukraines-joan-of-arc-guilty-for-deaths-of-
journalists/2016/03/21/7b1429dc-1ce3-4298-accb-51b6bba5885a_story.html

MOSCOWARussiancourtonMondayappearedtolaythegroundworkforaguiltyverdictagainstaUkrainianhelicopter
navigatornicknamedUkrainesJoanofArc,wrappingupatrialoverthe2014deathsoftwoRussianjournaliststhathasrevived
memoriesofStalin-erashowtrials.

Fewobserversexpectanacquittalforthepilot,Lt.NadiyaSavchenko,34,whohasbeenwidelydemonizedbyRussiasnews
media.SavchenkoisaccusedofdirectingmortarfirethatkilledtheRussianjournalistsinsoutheastUkrainein2014.Shehas
deniedanywrongdoing.

RussiannewsagenciesonMondayprematurelyreportedthatSavchenkowasfoundguilty,asthejudge,LeonidStepanenko,
reviewedtheevidencefromthesix-monthtrialinamonotone.

[UkrainelaunchesmusicalsalvoagainstRussia]

Suchproformareadingscanlastdays.Althoughthejudgeslanguagemayindicatewhetherthedefendantwillbefoundguilty,the
verdictandsentenceareofficiallydeliveredonlyattheendofthesession.ThetrialsconclusionisexpectedTuesday.Prosecutors
havesoughtasentenceof23years.

TheRussiangovernmenthasaccusedSavchenkoofmurderwhichtheprosecutionsayswasmotivatedbyethnichatredfor
RussianspeakersandoflaterillegallycrossingintoRussia,whereshewasarrested.Savchenkosaysshewasabductedin
UkraineandspiritedintoRussia,whereshewashandedovertopolice.

Sincehercapture,SavchenkohasbecomeanationalsymbolofresistanceinUkraineandafavoritetargetforRussians.Shewas
electedamemberoftheUkrainianparliamentinabsentia.

WesternleadershavewidelycondemnedtheRussiancourtproceedings,andUkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkoannounced
lastweekthathewouldtrytogettheEuropeanUniontoissuesanctionsagainstarosterofofficialsinvolvedinSavchenkos
detention.

U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnF.Kerryhascondemnedthetrial,andSavchenkomaybeontheagendawhenhevisitsMoscowthis
weektodiscussthecease-fireinSyria.Thefront-runnerfortheDemocraticpresidentialnomination,HillaryClinton,alsohas
expressedconcernaboutSavchenkoswell-being.

WesternofficialsandmembersofSavchenkoslegalteamhavesaidthattheexpectedguiltyverdictmaysetthestageforaprisoner
exchange.TwoallegedRussianservicemembersareontrialinKiev,theUkrainiancapital,onsuspicionoffightingalongside
Moscow-backedseparatistsineasternUkraine.

WhenaskedaboutapossibletradeforSavchenkoatanewsconferencethismonth,Poroshenkosaid:Asthepresidentof
Ukraine,usingmyconstitutionalrights,yes,itispossible.IamreadytoswapsoNadiyaSavchenkocancomehome.

TheKremlinhasdeniedthataprisonerexchangehasbeendiscussedwithKiev.ARussianForeignMinistryspokesmanhassaid
thatanysuchdiscussionscannottakeplacebeforeaverdictisdeliveredinSavchenkoscase.

SuchswapsareanestablishedtraditioninRussiasrelationswiththeWest.InSeptember,RussiaexchangedanEstoniansecurity
official,EstonKohver,alittlemorethanonemonthafterhewassentencedto15yearsinprisononespionagecharges.

ButitisunclearthatasimilaragreementcouldbereachedinSavchenkoscase,giventheseverityofthechargesagainstherand
thetenserelationsbetweenMoscowandKiev.

UkrainehasalsodemandedthatRussiahandoverseveralotherUkrainiannationalsrecentlyconvictedonterrorismcharges,
includingOlegSentsov,afilmmakersentencedto20yearsinprison.AmnestyInternationalsaidthecasewasredolentofStalinist-
erashowtrials.SentsovisstillinprisoninRussia.

SavchenkosattorneyssaidMondaythattheirclientplanstoresumeahungerstrikeandrefuseliquidsasaformofprotest.

TheNewYorkTimes

UkrainianPilotFoundGuiltyofComplicityinRussianReportersDeaths
ByIVANNECHEPURENKOMARCH22,2016
Continuereadingthemainstory
RussianJudge:PilotKilledReporters
ByREUTERSonPublishDateMarch21,2016.

DONETSK,RussiaARussiancourtonTuesdayfoundaUkrainianmilitarypilot,Lt.NadiyaV.Savchenko,guiltyofcomplicity
inthedeathsoftwoRussianjournalistskilledbymortarfire,inapoliticallychargedcasethathighlightedthestrainedrelations
betweenMoscowandtheWest.

TheDonetskCityCourtsaidshedirectedmortarfireatarebel-heldcheckpoint,resultinginthedeathsoftwoRussianreporters
duringtheheightofthefightingineasternUkraineinJune2014.

Donetsk,asmallRussiantown520milessouthofMoscowneartheUkrainianborder,sharesanamewiththelargercityineastern
Ukrainethatisthecenteroftheseparatistmovement.Theareaaroundthecourthousewascordonedoffbyspecialpoliceunits
wearingmasks.

Thepilot,consideredamartyrinUkraineandelectedtoParliamentthereinabsentia,hasdeniedallcharges,sayingthatshewas
kidnappedbyRussiaanhourbeforethetworeporters,IgorKornelyukandAntonVoloshin,werekilled,andthatshewasspirited
acrossthebordertoRussiatofaceashowtrial.

TherewasnoimmediatestatementfromLieutenantSavchenkoorherleadlawyer,MarkFeygin,otherthanhisconfirmationofthe
guiltyverdict.

Afterthedecisionwasread,shecouldbeseenpacingbackandforthintheglasscellinthecourtroom,speakingwithherlegal
team.

InRussia,thestatenewsmediahasturnedLieutenantSavchenkointoasymbolofviolentanti-RussiannationalisminUkraine.
Russiaalsoclaimedsheenteredthecountryonherownaccord,andshewasalsoconvictedofillegalentry.Prosecutorshave
requesteda23-yearsentence.

Duringthecourseofthetrial,herlawyersandothersraisedseriousproblemswiththeevidence.LieutenantSavchenkoslawyers
offeredcellphonerecordsindicatingthatshewasatleastthreemilesawayfromtheshellingsitewhenittookplace.

Then,inaninterviewpublishedonMondaybyMeduza.io,anewswebsite,arebelleaderclaimedtohavecapturedLieutenant
SavchenkobeforetheshellingthatkilledtheRussianjournaliststookplace.Therebelidentifiedhimselfbyamilitarynickname,
Ilim.

TheWestandUkrainehavesaidthatthecaseamountedtothelatestinalongseriesofshowtrials,andPresidentObamaand
severalEuropeanleaderswereamongthecritics.

InatelephonecalltoPresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussialastweek,Mr.ObamaurgedMr.PutintoreleaseLieutenant
Savchenko.Mr.Putinrejectedtherequest,accordingtoastatementbyhisspokesman,DmitriS.Peskov,sayinghecouldnot
interfereinthejudicialprocess.

SeveralWesternandUkrainiandiplomatswereonhandtowitnesstheannouncementoftheverdict,asweresomeofLieutenant
Savchenkosrelativesandadozensupporters,includingmembersoftheUkrainianParliament,aswellasasmallarmyof
reporters.

LieutenantSavchenkowillnotappealthecourtsdecisionbecauseshedoesnotbelieveRussiancourtscanjudgeherfairly,Mr.
Feyginsaid.Shealsoaskedherlawyerstoannouncethatshewouldgoonadryhungerstrike10daysaftertheverdict,whenit
comesintoforce.TheUkrainianpilothasgoneondryhungerstrikesseveraltimesbefore,includingthismonth.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/19/201601:53:40AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: WhyCredibilityMattersinForeignAffairs-TheAtlantic

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/03/obama-doctrine-goldberg-free-rider-credibility/473616/?
utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-
+Master+Feed%29

WhyCredibilityMatters
Theresnogettingaroundit:BarackObamaisaphenomenalarguer.Hesgotsuperblegaltraininghesgotpoint-by-
pointdebatingskillhesgotafeelfornuancehesgothistoricalexamplesandcounter-examplesattheready.And,
asapoliticianwhosbeenaroundthetrackafewtimes,hesnotabovealittlesophistryorrhetoricalsleight-of-hand.

AllthesetoolsareondazzlingdisplayinJeffreyGoldbergsextraordinarycoverstoryinthismonthsAtlantic.The
ObamaDoctrinegivesusthebestpicturewemayeverhaveofhowthispresidentthinksandtalksaboutforeign
policy.Itwillleavemanyreaderswonderingwhichcandidatetosucceedhimcouldbehalfsopersuasive.

Andyet,forallhistalents,Obamadoesnotexactlymakethesale.Tomymind,hedoesntevenfullyacknowledge
thenatureoftheproblemhefaces.HeclaimstobelievethattheUnitedStatesremainstheindispensableglobal
leader.Buthealsowantstomakeindispensabilitylessexpensiveandrisky,morefocusedanddiscriminating.He
wantstodisciplineAmericanpolicybydefiningthecountrysinterestsmorenarrowlyandactingmoredeliberately.
Hedlike,aidessay,toleavehissuccessoranicecleanbarn.

Now,doestheresultingU.S.rolefeelalittledownsized?DoAmericasalliesfeelalittlelesssureofoursupport?Are
adversariesemboldened?Doestheforeign-policyestablishment(ofwhichObamahassuchalowopinion)feelthe
UnitedStatesisnotreallygoingtobeleadingatall?Thepresidentwavesasidetheseconcerns.Credibilityinthe
formofpressuretoactwhennorealinterestisthreatenedmustnotbecomeafetish,hesuggests.Friendsandallies
needtodomoretodefendtheirowninterests.TheU.S.cantleadifitkeepsdoingstupidshit.

Obamaisnotwrongaboutanyofthis.Yetturninghissensibleprinciplesintoaneffectiveforeignpolicyisharderthan
headmits.ThepresidentissolockedintoanangrydebatewithWashingtonconventionalwisdomthathemaynot
understandhowunthoughtfulsomeofhisexplanationssound.

Takehiscommentsaboutcredibilitywhatheridiculesasdroppingbombsonsomeonetoprovethatyourewilling
todropbombsonsomeone.Itsagoodline,butObamasreasonfortreatingcredibilityasanemptyconceptisnot
sogood.Hewantstopersuadeusthat,whenheretreatedfromthefamousredlineovertheuseofchemical
weaponsinSyriain2013,nothingmuchwasatstakeandnothingbadhappenedasaresult.

Alas,somethingwasandsomethingdid.Justhoursbeforehechangedcourse,Obamahimselfsaidthatifyoudo
nothingwhenamajorinternationalnormisviolated,thenormbecomesmeaningless.Agreatpowervaluescredibility
soopponentsknownottochallengeitsinterests.ThatswhySusanRice,hisownnational-securityadviser,saidthe
damagedonebybacktrackingontheredlinewouldbesevere.

Thepresidentplaystheblamegameinpartbecausehetooresistsdoingmore.

Hasitbeen?Obamasaysno,butsurelyheunderstandsthatifhehadtakenoutSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assads
airforcein2013,asmanywereurginghimtodo(andasheclearlycouldhavedone),VladimirPutinwouldnever
haveintervenedinSyriain2015.ObamamaynotaskhimselfwhyPutinwouldhaveheldback,buttheansweris
veryclear.HewouldhaveworriedabouttakingontheUnitedStates.Nowhedoesnt.Putinhastaughtusthat
credibilitymeanssomething.
Obama,ofcourse,hasadifferentview.Putin,hetellsGoldberg,hasgainednothingfrominterveninginSyria.Tothink
hehasistofundamentallymisunderstandthenatureofpowerinforeignaffairsorintheworldgenerally.Propping
upAssad,Obamaclaims,doesntsuddenlymake[Putin]aplayer.Why,hesays,theresnotaG20meetingwhere
theRussianssettheagendaaroundanyoftheissuesthatareimportant.(YouhavetowonderwhatPutinwillmake
ofthispassagewhenhereadsit:ThepresidentoftheUnitedStatesreallybelievessettingtheagendaofthenext
totallyforgettableG20meetingmattersmorethandecidingwhowinsthecivilwarinSyria?)

Theressomeofthesameself-justificationinthewayObamatalksaboutfreeridersthesmallandmedium
countriesthatcountontheU.S.toprovidefortheirsecurity,withoutponyingupmuchontheirown.Freeriders
aggravatemeisalreadyoneofthemostquotedlinesofTheObamaDoctrine.VirtuallyallAmericanpresidents
haveprobablyfeltthesameway,andfutureoneswilltoo.Theyhavewantedandwillwantallieswhoactually
contributetothecommondefense.

ObamahasgoodreasontobeunhappywithAmericasfriends.SaudiArabia,Turkey,Israel,andothershave
undercuthispolicies.InEuropeheseesinstitutionaldysfunctionrivalingthatofWashington.Yetthepresidentplays
theblamegameinpartbecausehetooresistsdoingmore.Irecentlyheardareporteraskasenioradministration
officialwhethertheU.S.hasevertolditsMiddleEasternpartnersthatitwouldbereadytocommitalimited
contingentofmilitarypersonnelinSyriaaslongastheywoulddothesameanincreasedandcoordinatedeffort.
The(commendablyhonest)answer:No.

Dontdostupidshitisakindofstrategyifyouhaveaclearenoughideaofwhatsstupidandreal
determinationnottodoit.

Free-riderproblemspreoccupysocialscientistsforthesamereasontheyexasperatepolicymakers:Theyrehardto
fix.SohardthatAmericanpresidentshaveoftenconcludedthattherewasonlyoneviablesolution.Tobringwrong-
headedalliesalongandlimittheirworstimpulsestheU.S.itselfhadtodomore,notless.Sure,doinglessmight
forcesomealliestoexertthemselvesmore,butnotnecessarilyinawaythatservedU.S.interests.Obamais
probablyrightthattheTurksandSaudishavemadethingsworseinSyria.Heseemsnottoaskhimselfwhethera
moredeterminedU.S.rolemighthavekepttheminline.

ThedebateaboutSyria,nowfiveyearsold,willoutlastthisadministration.ButitsnottheonlyexampleofObamas
alliancemanagementthatundermineshiscomplaintsaboutfreeriders.Thereis,asGoldbergtellsus,justaboutno
foreignleaderthepresidentrespectsmorethanAngelaMerkel.Noristhereonewhohasdonemoretohelphim.
(WereitnotforMerkelssupportonsanctionsagainstRussia,ObamasUkrainepolicywouldbarelyexist.)No
Europeanleaderhastriedhardertoarticulateatolerant,Obama-styleapproachtotheSyrianrefugeecrisis.Norhas
anyonepaidagreaterpricefordoingso.Merkelfacesboththepossibleendofherpoliticalcareerandthepossible
collapseoftheEuropeanUnion.

WhiteHouseaidesacknowledgetheproblem.IfEuropehasa2016anythinglike2015,oneofthemhastoldme,
therewontbemuchofEuropelefttotalkabout.SowhathastheleaderwhomObamarespectsmost,whohas
donethemostforhim,whohassetoutavisionmostlikehis,andwhohashadthemosttroubleimplementingit,
gottenfromhiminreturn?TheU.S.hasadmittedatrickleofrefugees,NATO-membernavieshavebeguntoregulate
themigrantflowinGreekandTurkishwaters,thePentagoncontinuestostudytheproblemofasafezoneinSyria
andtheWhiteHousecontinuestoexpressdoubtsaboutit.Measuredagainsttheexistentialcrisisfacing
Americasmostimportantallies,thisisntmuch.ItmaywellbewhatObamameansbyAmericanleadership,buthe
shouldntbesurprisedifothersjustascarefulandthoughtfulasheconsiderittoolittletoolate.

Thepresidenthasbeencriticizedfortreatingdontdostupidshit(aphrasefirstsharedwithreportersbyhisaides)
asausefulstatementofAmericanforeign-policystrategy.HillaryClintonmockedthephrasetononeotherthan
JeffreyGoldbergasnotanorganizingprinciple.Yettheformulahasrealmeaning.Dontdostupidshitisakind
ofstrategyifyouhaveaclearenoughideaofwhatsstupidandrealdeterminationnottodoit.Obamahasbothof
these,andhehasmadethemtheorganizingframeworkofadownsized,lessexpensive,morerisk-averseforeign
policy.Forbetterorworse,thisishisdoctrine.Itishelpinghimtocleanthebarn.Whatitmaynotdoissustainthe
Americanroleintheworldthathehimselfclaimstowant.

RelatedVideo
Abehind-the-sceneslookintoObama'slast-minutedecisionnottobombSyriain2013
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/19/201605:56:06AM
To: daniel.kimmage@gmail.com
Subject: RIAC::HowtoTalkwithRussia

HowtoTalkwithRussia

09march2016

AfterRussiasannexationofCrimea,manypolicymakersinEurope
concludedthatithadbeenamistaketoletRussiagetawaywiththe
2008Georgianwar.WewerenotclearenoughonGeorgia,thatswhy
theymovedtoUkraine,wasthegloomyconclusion.Inalllikelihood,
similarconversationstookplacealsoinMoscow.Wewerenotclear
enoughinGeorgia,thatswhytheymovedtoUkraine,peoplewould
say,havinginmindtheexpansionofWesternoutreach.

ThisexampleillustratestheproblemthatRussiaandtheWestnowface.
Wehavefundamentallydifferentunderstandingsnotonlyofwhat
constitutesacceptableinternationalbehaviour,butalsoofthegoalsand
Photo:
Kremlin.ru naturaldriversthatunderpinit.Andweareunabletohaveadirect
conversationaboutourdifferences.Differentframeworkscombined
withmiscommunicationhavegrown,overtime,intoself-perpetuatingantagonisticnarratives.

InRussia,wheredecision-makingisconcentratedinthehandsofanarrowandlike-mindedgroupofpeople,acoherent
anti-Westernnarrativehasemergedthatisalreadynearlyimpossibletopenetrate.Atdelicatemoments,thiscanbehighly
dangerous:ifbothsidesconsidertheothersidetheaggressor,misreadingtheothersidesintentionscanleadtoreckless
action.

Inthiscontextofculturalalienation,isitstillpossibletotalktoRussia,andwhatwouldthattake?

ThisisthequestionthatnowplaguesbothNATOandtheEU.Whilein
theNATOcontextthedangersofmiscommunicationaresometimes
recognised,EUdiscussionsarealltoooftendrivenbybureaucratic
politicallogic.Adesiretohaveapositiveconversationalongside(or
insteadof)sanctions,fostersthehopethat,ifengagedpositively,Russia
willmellowandanewdealmightbefoundthatturnsRussiatowards
co-operationagain.Inthelattercontext,cooperationbetweentheEU
andEurasianEconomicUnionisoftenmentionedasapotentialdeal-
maker.

Whilethedesiretohaveapositiveconversationisinitselfunderstandable,andcooperativeco-existencewithRussia
shoulddefinitelyremainEuropeslong-termstrategicgoal,ashallowapproachtotheissueholdsconsiderabledangers.
Ourdifferencesrunsodeepthattheycannotbepaperedoverwithanotherbureaucraticinitiative,howeverwell-
intentioned.Worsestill,inthecontextofmutualmiscommunication,raisingexpectationsbasedonfalseassumptionswill
notjustleadtodisappointment.Givenourhistoryofdisillusionment,eachfuturedisappointmentislikelytobemore
emotionalthanthelast,andcauseamoredangerousbacklash.

Americasexperiencewithitsresetpolicyisaninstructiveexamplehere.FortheUS,theresetwasjustsuchapositive
conversation.ItwaspragmaticpolicyanattempttoworkwithRussiaonareasofcommoninterestandthereforeto
limitpublicityarounddisagreements.ButinRussia,theresetcomingsosoonaftertheGeorgiawarwasinterpreted
effectivelyasageopoliticalapology:asAmericasadmissionthatithadventuredtooclosetowhatRussiaconsidersits
sphereofinfluence.Itwasseenasapromisetochangecourse.

AsaformerRussiandiplomat,speakingunderChathamHouserule,lateracknowledged:

TheconceptoftheresetwasmisinterpretedbyRussia.Russiathoughtitwasfinallyacceptedamongthe
greatpowers,butinfacttheresetturnedouttobeaboutanarrowsetofissues.Thiswasagreat
disappointment.Theconceptoftacticalco-operationisalientotheRussianelite.Relationswithother
countrieshavealwaysbeenemotionallycharged.RecognitionisanimportantconceptandRussiawantstobe
treatedasanequal.

Thenatureofthedisagreement

ThatRussiawantstobetreatedasanequalisaphrasethatoftencomesupinconversationswithRussianpolicymakers
andexperts.However,thedefinitionofequaliselusive.Institutionally,onecouldarguethatRussiahasbeentreatedas
morethanequal:ithasbeenadmittedtoalltheWesternorganisationsitwishedtojoinwithoutnecessarilyqualifyingfor
them.TheWesthasalsodoneitsutmosttolinkRussiaupwiththeEUandNATOasalike-mindedstrategicpartner.
ButRussiastillfeelslessthanequalandhumiliated.Howcome?

ThetruthseemstobethatRussiahasneverwantedtobetreatedasanequalpartnerinsidetheWesternOSCE-based
system.Rather,forMoscow,beingequalmeanshavingtherighttosetandtweaktherules,notjusttoadvanceitsown
interestswithinthepost-ColdWarEuropeansystemwithitscommonsetofrules.Itmeanshavinggeopoliticalvetorights
anduncriticalacceptanceofthenatureandpracticesofitsdomesticregimeneitherofwhichtheOSCEprinciplescan
provide.

Contrarytowhatmanywouldclaim,Russiaisnotanexpansionistpower.Itdoesnotwanttodominatetheworld,
conquerEuropeorevenrestoretheSovietUnion.ButitwantsasphereofcontrolintheareathattheEUcallsitsEastern
neighbourhood,anditwantsspheresofcontrolassuchtobeacceptedasanorganisingprincipleofinternationallife.
Russiadoesnothaveanambitiousglobalagenda:itsapproachtotheAsia-PacificregionisinspiredmorebyitsWestern
andgreatpowerrelationshipsthanbyanylocalcontext.Likewise,itsactionsintheMiddleEasthavelesstodowiththe
regionitselfthanwithMoscowscounter-revolutionarystanceandtheprincipleofinviolabilityofregimes.Theseare
issuesthathavetroubledRussiaintheWesterncontext,ratherthantheEasternone,asRussiaviewstheWestashaving
engineeredmostofthepopularrevolutionsofthelastfewdecades.

WhiletheseactionsdonotconstituteaglobalchallengetotheWestreminiscentoftheColdWartimestheydo
neverthelessconstituteasharpclashofparadigmsthatisboundtomanifestitselfagainandagain.

Thenatureofthemiscommunication

Thisclashismagnifiedbytheaccompanyingmisunderstandingsand
miscommunications.Decision-makersinRussiaviewWesternactions
throughtheirownparadigms:theyseemtosincerelybelievethatthe
Westisengineeringcolourrevolutionswiththeaimofweakening
Russiassphereofinfluenceandstrengtheningitsown.Theysuspect
thattheultimategoalistobringaboutregimechangeinRussia.

TheWestinturnhasuntilrecentlybeenlargelyobliviousoftheextentto
whichRussiaseestheworldanditsworkingprinciplesdifferently.IthasinterpretedRussiasactionsasaberrations,
misunderstandings,orasinspiredbydomesticpoliticalconsiderations.TherehasbeenastrongbeliefthatasRussia
experiencesthebenefitsofcooperation,itwilleventuallybecomeafullypaid-upmemberoftheOSCE-basedorder.

Itisentirelynormalthattheabyssbetweenourworldviewsshouldhavedeepenedastheauthoritarianregime
consolidateditselfinRussia.Howeverandthisisnotentirelylogical,theWestsabilitytograspthedepthofitdidnot
catchup,atleastuntiltheannexationofCrimeaservedasawake-upcall.Thisignoranceisrootednotonlyinintellectual
lazinessandwishfulthinking.Italsohastodowiththedeclineinthequalityofcommunicationandthisinturnhas
somethingtodowiththepersonalitiesofleaders,firstandforemostwiththepersonalityofVladimirPutin.

ARussianexpertwhoforalongtimehasbeenadvisingtheForeignMinistry,haspointedoutthatthereasonwhyRussia
acquiescedtothefirsttworoundsofNATOenlargementwasthefactthatthesehadbeendiscussedwithMoscowin
termsthatwereunderstandabletothem:

Theydidnotlikeenlargement,buttheysawthatstoppingithadanunacceptableprice,andsothey
negotiatedcompensation.AllRussiaswishesthatMoscowmanagedtoarticulateweremetwhetherRussia
managedtomakeuseofwhatitgotisadifferentmatter.ButitwasadealthatRussiaknewithadaccepted.

Thesetalks,however,hadmostlytakenplacebetweentheYeltsingovernmentandtheClintonadministration.Withthe
adventofthePutinandBushpresidencies,bothRussiasabilitytoarticulateitswishesandtheWestsabilitytounderstand
themstartedtodecline.

AndhereonecomestoPutinspersonality.PutinsworldviewandhismodusoperandihavebeenshapedbySovietnorms
andhagiographytoagreaterextentthanisnecessarilycommonamongRussians,evenofhisgeneration.His
communicationhabitsbearsomeunmistakableSovietcharacteristics,whichwhenusedinconversationwiththeWest,are
oftenmisunderstoodandmakehimseemdeceptive.Thisisnotnecessarilyintentional.

InSovietlife,hypocrisywasthenorm,characterisedbythefamousSovietsaying:wepretendtowork,theypretendto
payus.Adherencetothenominalstateofaffairspretendingtowork,pretendingtobelieveinCommunism-wasa
socialobligation,buteveryoneknewthatthiswasjustapretence.Inthesecircumstances,therewerejusttwowaysof
discussingthetruestateofaffairs:betweenthelines(usingofficialrhetoric),orinatrustedenvironment,abandoningthe
pretence.

InhiscommunicationwiththeWest,Putinhasusedboth:hehasusedWesternliberalrhetorictogetacrosshisown
oftenquiteilliberalmessages.HehasalsoresortedtothecrudenakedtruthexposedinstatementssuchasUkraineis
notevenacountry.TheWest,however,tendsnottohearhismessage:inpoliticallycorrectstatementswemissthe
doublespeakthemorenakedmessagescanbesocrudeastobegrotesque,ortheyaredismissedasbullyingand
blackmailingnotworthengagingwith.

ThisisnottosaythattheWestneverusesdoublespeakitself.Itdoes,butofadifferentkind.IntheWest,doublespeak
maybeusedtocutsomecornersandsolvesomethornyreal-lifeproblems,butithasneverbecomeanormnorledtoa
sustaineddoublereality.Rulescanbebreached,buttheystillremainrules,evenintheeyesofthosewhobreachthem.In
theSovietsystem,itwasviceversa:ruleswereknowntobefictionalevenintheeyesofthosewhofollowedthem.

ThislogicmayalsoexplainwhyRussiaissounhappywithmanyoftheinternationalrulesandnormsithasvoluntarily
signedupto,beittheOSCEcharterorWTOrulebook:itneverthoughtthattheseweremeanttobefollowedinletteras
wellasinspirit.

Russiahasaninterestingdouble-trackbehaviourwhenitcomestorulesandnorms.Whileitcanbeveryrigidand
legalisticinclingingtotheletterofthelaw,itcanalsofreelyignoreitsspirit.Itcanalsousetheletterofthelawtoevade
thespirit.ButsuchbehaviourisoftendrivenbyRussiasnotionthatbysodoing,itinfactengageswiththereal
conversation,beneaththeveneerofpublicnormsastheSovietConstitutioncoveredtherealitiesofSovietpolicy
making.

ItsspecialoperationinCrimeabearsallthehallmarksofsuchlogic.Itwasimportanttoobservetheletterofthelaw
thatis,topretendthattheCrimeareferendumhadlocalroots,tohaveatleastimplausibledeniabilityofRussias
involvement.

Seeingwhatwashappening,manyEuropeansconcludedbitterlythatPutinlies.Butthereisalogictohislies.Theyare
notjustintendedtodeceive,buttocommunicate.TheCrimeaoperationcommunicatedthatRussiawaswillingandableto
setrulesinitsneighbourhood.Itwasnotjustphysical,butalsoamentaldemonstrationofforce,tellingtheWestthat:you
mayknowwearethere,butyoucannotproveit,soyoucannotdoanythingandsoyouhadbetteracceptourterms.

ItisoftensaidthatPutinisagoodtacticianwithnostrategy.Perhaps.Butheknowsverywellwherehewantstoget,
makesuseoftheopeningsheseesandoftenusesescalationasaninvitationtotalkorademandthathiswishesbetaken
seriously.Doingsoisoftenhissubstitutefordirectdiscussion.AsoneastonishedBrusselsofficialacknowledged:

RussianeversaiditwantedasphereofinfluenceinUkraine!Hadtheysaidso,wewouldhaveapproached
theissuedifferently.

ButneitherRussianorPutinsaidit.Theythoughtitwasself-evident,tooobvioustobeputintowords.

AfterPutinsfirstyearsinpower,aRussianmediaarticlecharacterisedhisforeignpolicyasBulgakovian,referringtothe
famoussentencefromMikhailBulgakovsMasterandMargarita:Youshouldneveraskanyoneforanything.Never.
Especiallynotfromthosewhoaremorepowerfulthanyou.Contrarytoexpectations,Putindidnotpickafightoverthe
BalticsjoiningNATOhedidnotaskformoneyorforasphereofinfluence.After9/11hesidedwiththeUSwithout
askingforanythinginreturn.Butthefactthathedidnotarticulatedemandsdoesnotmeanthathedidnothave
expectations.Afterall,Bulgakovsnextsentencereads:Theywillmaketheofferandtheywillgiveoftheirownaccord.

Thisoffer,however,nevermaterialised.WhatforPutinweregreatconcessionsonhispart,theWestinterpretedjustas
commoninterests,andinsteadofcomingupwithapaybackofasuitablenatureandmagnitude,orratherexplaining
whythelattercouldnotbeoffered,itsimplysaidthankyou.Andsothecycleofmiscommunicationstarted.

Whatnext?Policiesandproblems

AftertheannexationofCrimeaexposedthedepthofdifferences,three
differentpolicyoptionshavebeenputforwardintheWest.

ThefirstfocusesonconstrainingRussia.Itsuggestsbeefingupthe
defenceplansforNATOterritory,tryingtolimitRussiasleverageinits
non-NATOneighbourhood,andstickingtoeconomicsanctionsthat
supposedlysoonerorlaterwillbringdowntheevermorebrittleregime
inMoscow.

Thesecondapproachadvocated,amongothers,byUSforeignpolicygurusZbigniewBrzezinskiandHenryKissinger-
isessentiallyageopoliticaldealwithRussia,whichfocusesaroundapermanentnon-alignedstatusforUkraine.

Thethirdapproachisamixofcarrotsandsticks.ThisisthepositionoftenheardinEurope:weneedtobefirmon
sanctionsandusethemtoregulatethesituationinUkraine,butatthesametimeweshouldlookoutforwaystooffer
RussiaanewstakeintheEuropeanorder.ThiscouldbedonebylegitimisingtheEurasianEconomicUnionbyallowingit
toco-operatewiththeEU.
Allthesesuggestionshavebeenmadewiththebestofintentions,butpeopleremainunawareastowhatitwouldreally
taketoadoptanyoftheseconceptsasapolicy.

WhileconstrainingRussiaisclearlynecessary,oneneedstoresistthetemptationtodrawexcessiveparallelswiththeold
ColdWar.Doingsowouldencouragepeopletoapplyoldsolutionstonewchallengesinsteadofinformingthinkingit
wouldriskmakingoneblindtocurrentrealities.ThememoryoftheColdWarhasalsonowbecomeaneditedmemory
inthemindsofmanyWesternersaheroictimewithgreatclarityaboutgoodandevil.Therealdangersandconfusions
havelargelybeenforgotten.

Inreality,anewcontainmentpolicymaynotbesuchasmoothsuccess.Comparedtotheolddays,Russiaisalotweaker
thantheWest,buttheWestisalotmoredistracted.AnewColdWarwouldthusbeanasymmetriconeandsofar,the
Westhasdonealotworseinasymmetricwarsthansymmetricones.Infact,aproperpublicColdWarwouldactually
suitRussiasregimeprettywell:prolongingitslifeexpectancythroughtheabilitytoconsolidatethepeopleagainstan
externalenemy.Andthefalloftheregimeinitselfisnotasolutioneither.Forgoodthingstotakerootonitsruins,the
regimeneedstofirstdiscredititselfintheeyesofthepopulation,andthenbechangedbythatsamepopulation.

However,doingageopoliticaldealwithRussiawouldnotbeanymorestraightforward.Notonlywouldsuchadealrun
countertoawholearrayofdocumentsthatregulatetheinternationalbehaviourofEuropeancountries(theOSCEcharter,
theprinciplesoftheCouncilofEurope,thefoundingdocumentsoftheEUandNATO),itwouldalsobeimpossiblein
practice.WhileaftertheColdWarthespheresofinfluencecouldbeheldtogetherbycoercion,thesedayssomeattraction
isneeded.Moscowmaylayaclaimtoasphereofinfluence,butitcannotreallyholdontoitwithoutthisbeingaccepted
bythesocietiesofthecountriesconcerned.Thesesocieties,inturn,arestartingtomatureanddemandmore
accountabilityfromtheireliteswhohaveoftenruntheircountriesinaself-interestedandcorruptmanner.

Thismanifestsitselfinabumpy,butinevitableevolutionaryprocessthattheEUdidnotlaunchanddoesnotcontrol,but
cannotdoanythingotherthansupport.Moscow,ontheotherhand,isfixatedontheelitesitcancontrolandistherefore
boundtoresistthechange.Furthermore,itwouldinterpretanydifficultieswiththesocietiesassubversionoriginatingin
Europe.Thatway,eveniftheWestdidconcedeRussiaasphereofinfluence,itwouldneverreapthedesiredbenefitsin
termsofstabilitybutitwouldhavelosttheOSCE-basedprinciplesoftheEuropeanorder.

Finally,thethirdoptionacombinationoffirmnessandanappealingproject-runstheriskofbeingmisunderstoodby
Russiainthesamewaytheresetwasmisunderstood.TheEU-EEUcooperationespeciallyhasitsnaturallimitscancannot
beignored.Forthetimebeing,theEEUCommissionhasamandatetohandlejustthetradeissues,butoneoftheUnions
members,Belarus,isnotamemberoftheWTO.FortheEU,alltradenegotiationsarebasedonWTOrules.Thismeans
thatishardtofindanactualagendaforanydiscussionwiththeEEU:onecanthinkonlyoflow-leveltechnicalissues,such
asstandardsandcustomsprocedures.Toinvestsuchlow-levelinteractionwithexpectationsofamajorbreak-through
wouldbenotjustfutile,butalsodangerous.

ItmighthappenthatRussiawouldjustfailtoappreciatetheproposal,butinaworst-casescenarioitwouldmisinterpretit
altogether.ItmayhopethattheWesthasfinallygrantedititsduegeopoliticalentitlementandothersortsofunconditional
acceptance.Butthiswouldnotbethecase.UnconditionalacceptanceissomethingthattheEUdoesnotgiveeventoits
memberstates.

TheEUmightalsohopethatlimitedcooperationwithRussiawould,overtime,growintosomethingbiggerandmake
RussiaacooperativepartnerinaWesternsystem.Thiswouldnotbethecaseeither.Asemi-symbolicgestureofgoodwill
wouldnotbuyRussiasacquiescence.IfwelookattheproposalsthatRussiaismakingongeopoliticalorder,oreven
ontheDCFTAwithUkraine-wequicklyrealisethattoreallymeetRussiasexpectations,wewouldneedtoaccepta
profoundoverhauloftheprinciplesofmostpost-ColdWarinstitutionsnotjustNATOandtheOSCEwouldneedto
changetheirprinciples,butsowouldtheWTO,possiblytheBrettonWoodssystem,andsoforth.
Focusondifferencesandtalk

Intheabsenceofaworkablepolicywithanacceptablepricetag,whatshouldWesterndialoguewithRussialooklike?
Counterintuitively,weshouldstarttheRussia-Westconversationsnotwithcommonalitiesaswouldbeadiplomats
instinctbutonthedifferences.

Theprimaryaimofcommunicationshouldbetorationalisethecontextandtoagreeonthenatureofdisagreements.Ifthis
couldbeachieved,thenthedifferenceswouldstillbethere,buttheywouldbelessdangerous.OnceMoscowis
convincedthateventhoughtheWesttriestodefenditsprinciplesinUkraine,itisnotinfactplottinganattackonMoscow,
thenthechancesofapre-emptiveattackonWesternalliesorassetswouldbemuchreduced.Likewise,onceRussiais
convincedthateventhoughtheWestmaybedesperateforcooperationwithRussia,itisreadytobetoughwhenitcomes
todefendingsomebasicprinciples,thenthedangerofanextUkrainewillbemuchreduced.

Suchaconversationshouldtakeplaceatdifferentlevelsandinvariousformats.Startingfromthetopitisimportantto
keeptheconversationgoingwithPresidentPutin.Eventhoughhelivesinadifferentworld,asfamouslystatedbyAngela
Merkel,itisstillimportanttolethimknowhowhisactionsareunderstoodbytheWest.

Toreducedangersstemmingfrommisunderstandingsonthepoliticallevel,itisimportanttohaveworkingcontactsamong
themilitary.Theseneedtobecalibratedcarefully.Russiamustnotbeabletouseanyconversations,militaryorotherwise,
tolegitimiseitsactionsinUkrainebutitshouldknowforcertainthatwhiletheWestispreparingtodefendtheNATO
territory,itisnotpreparingtoattackRussiasterritory.

Onthediplomaticfront,theWestshouldbeveryclearonitsvisionasconcernsimplementationoftheMinskagreement:
onlyfullimplementationwouldqualifyasaconditionforremovalofthesanctions.Upuntilnow,theWesthastriedto
force-feedRussiaaface-savingexitfromDonbas,whileRussiahasstillbeeneagertoeatKyiv,togaincontroloverits
decisionmaking.ThismustnotsucceedandtheEUneedstobeclearonit.Thatsaid,ifonedayRussiaindeedwantsa
face-savingwayout,itshouldbegrantedbutagain,withfullclarityonwhatitis:savingfaceandnotasolutionon
Russiasterms.Russias(mis)interpretationoftheWestern-mediatedagreementbetweenViktorYanukovychandhis
oppositionshouldserveasawarningexampleonhowmediationcanbemisunderstood.

Ontheinstitutionallevel,weshouldconsiderre-shapingsomeofthediscussionformatstosuittodaysneeds.Most,ifnot
allformatsthatuniteRussiaandtheWestarebasedontheassumptionthatweshareinterestsorevenvalues.Thathas
beenthesourceofmuchfrustrationonbothsides.Russiahasfeltpermanentlycriticised,whileWesternallieshavefeltthey
needtochoosebetweengoodrelationswithRussiaandtheirsenseoftruth.Wecouldgetridofthatfrustrationby
redesigningthediscussioninwaysthatdonotimplylike-mindedness.TheRussia-NATOCouncilwouldbetheobvious
firstcandidateforsuchanoverhaul,butthereareothers.

WeshouldalsotrytoengagewithRussiascivilsociety,eventhoughtheKremlinhasmadeitdifficult.SomeRussian
NGOsareremarkablyactiveandwell-organised,andclearlyincubatorsofRussiasfutureelite.TheiractivitiesinRussia
arehindered,butmanyhavebranchedouttotheWest,whilestillmaintaininginfluenceinRussia.Europeshouldsupport
suchorganisationsandsocialisetheactivistsintoWesterndiscussions.Forthetimebeing,itisimpossibletoreachoutto
widerRussianaudienceswhoarerecipientsoftheinformationtheKremlinchooses.ButNGOactivistsareusuallyeager
tohavecontacts.AnditistheywhowillalmostcertainlybecomeopinionleadersinRussiawhentheTVdictatorshipends.

WeshouldalsocontinuetheconversationwithRussiasexpertcircles.Whilemanyexpertsundoubtedlyserveas
spokespersonsfortheregime,manyothershaveretainedadesiretoactuallyunderstandevents,andsomearebalancing
betweenthetwo.Itmaybehardtochangethesepeoplesminds,butitispossibleforgoodpersonalrelationshipsto
emerge,whichattimeofcriseswillbeusefultogetabetterunderstandingoftheothersidesthinkingandpolicy
drivers.
Inshort,Europeshouldlaunchamulti-layeredconversationwithRussiaaboutourdifferenceswithouttheimmediateaim
ofsolvingthemviasomegrandbargain.Weshouldtalkaboutdifferencesinordertorationalisethem.To
compartmentalisetherelationshipandfindareasforco-operationwouldstillbefine,butonlyifsuchco-operationis
understoodbybothsidesforwhatitis.Butembarkingonasymbolicpositiveprojectintheframeworkof
misunderstandingswillbedangerous,asraisedexpectations,ifunfounded,areboundtogenerateadangerousbacklash
moredangerouseachtimeitre-occurs.

FirstpublishedinECFR

Citationstyle-CMOSCopytoclipboard

KadriLiik,HowtoTalkwithRussia,RussianInternationalAffairsCouncil,09March2016,
http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=7353

Ratethisarticle:

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/18/201609:56:15AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:Majorinterview:"TimothyASH:Despitemessinesstoday,UkrainecanstillbethenextPOLAND,"kyivpost.om,3/16

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,March18,20169:56AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:Majorinterview:"TimothyASH:Despitemessinesstoday,UkrainecanstillbethenextPOLAND,"kyivpost.om,3/16

And:EUcallsuponUNcountriestoimposeSANCTIONSagainstRussia,themoscowtimes.com,3/18

And:EUiscallinguponthe100countrieswhosignedtheMarch27,2014UNresolutioncondemning
RussiasseizureofCrimeaandviolationofUkrainesterritorialintegritytojoinitinimposingsanctions
againstRussia.

And:Syriashowsthat6Russiabuiltaneffectivemilitary.NowHOWwillPutinuseit?
wshingtonpost.com,3/18

And:AnticorruptioninvestigatorslaunchelectioncampaigninPUTINsBACKYARD[Barvikha],
themsocowtimes.com,3/18

And:PUTIN[inCrimea]:theconstructionoftheKERCHBRIDGEisasymbolofourunitywithCrimea
[seevideowithhiscomments],tvrain.ru,3/18

And:Professor[Andrei]ZUBOV:SyriaisPutinssecondgreatDEFEATafterUkraine,gordonua.com,
3/18

And:Signsofarift?TheKremlindoesntthinkTRUMPsPutin/Clintonadisfunny,bloomberg.com,
3/17

TheKremlincriticizedvideopostedbytheRepublicanUSpresidentialfrontrunnerscampaignthat
mocksHillaryClintonastooWEAKtodealwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.

And:Russianarchivechief[SergeiMIRONENKO]outafterdebunkingSovietWWIlegend,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27619460.html

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/19/201601:53:40AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: WhyCredibilityMattersinForeignAffairs-TheAtlantic

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/03/obama-doctrine-goldberg-free-rider-credibility/473616/?
utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlantic+%28The+Atlantic+-
+Master+Feed%29

WhyCredibilityMatters
Theresnogettingaroundit:BarackObamaisaphenomenalarguer.Hesgotsuperblegaltraininghesgotpoint-by-
pointdebatingskillhesgotafeelfornuancehesgothistoricalexamplesandcounter-examplesattheready.And,
asapoliticianwhosbeenaroundthetrackafewtimes,hesnotabovealittlesophistryorrhetoricalsleight-of-hand.

AllthesetoolsareondazzlingdisplayinJeffreyGoldbergsextraordinarycoverstoryinthismonthsAtlantic.The
ObamaDoctrinegivesusthebestpicturewemayeverhaveofhowthispresidentthinksandtalksaboutforeign
policy.Itwillleavemanyreaderswonderingwhichcandidatetosucceedhimcouldbehalfsopersuasive.

Andyet,forallhistalents,Obamadoesnotexactlymakethesale.Tomymind,hedoesntevenfullyacknowledge
thenatureoftheproblemhefaces.HeclaimstobelievethattheUnitedStatesremainstheindispensableglobal
leader.Buthealsowantstomakeindispensabilitylessexpensiveandrisky,morefocusedanddiscriminating.He
wantstodisciplineAmericanpolicybydefiningthecountrysinterestsmorenarrowlyandactingmoredeliberately.
Hedlike,aidessay,toleavehissuccessoranicecleanbarn.

Now,doestheresultingU.S.rolefeelalittledownsized?DoAmericasalliesfeelalittlelesssureofoursupport?Are
adversariesemboldened?Doestheforeign-policyestablishment(ofwhichObamahassuchalowopinion)feelthe
UnitedStatesisnotreallygoingtobeleadingatall?Thepresidentwavesasidetheseconcerns.Credibilityinthe
formofpressuretoactwhennorealinterestisthreatenedmustnotbecomeafetish,hesuggests.Friendsandallies
needtodomoretodefendtheirowninterests.TheU.S.cantleadifitkeepsdoingstupidshit.

Obamaisnotwrongaboutanyofthis.Yetturninghissensibleprinciplesintoaneffectiveforeignpolicyisharderthan
headmits.ThepresidentissolockedintoanangrydebatewithWashingtonconventionalwisdomthathemaynot
understandhowunthoughtfulsomeofhisexplanationssound.

Takehiscommentsaboutcredibilitywhatheridiculesasdroppingbombsonsomeonetoprovethatyourewilling
todropbombsonsomeone.Itsagoodline,butObamasreasonfortreatingcredibilityasanemptyconceptisnot
sogood.Hewantstopersuadeusthat,whenheretreatedfromthefamousredlineovertheuseofchemical
weaponsinSyriain2013,nothingmuchwasatstakeandnothingbadhappenedasaresult.

Alas,somethingwasandsomethingdid.Justhoursbeforehechangedcourse,Obamahimselfsaidthatifyoudo
nothingwhenamajorinternationalnormisviolated,thenormbecomesmeaningless.Agreatpowervaluescredibility
soopponentsknownottochallengeitsinterests.ThatswhySusanRice,hisownnational-securityadviser,saidthe
damagedonebybacktrackingontheredlinewouldbesevere.

Thepresidentplaystheblamegameinpartbecausehetooresistsdoingmore.

Hasitbeen?Obamasaysno,butsurelyheunderstandsthatifhehadtakenoutSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assads
airforcein2013,asmanywereurginghimtodo(andasheclearlycouldhavedone),VladimirPutinwouldnever
haveintervenedinSyriain2015.ObamamaynotaskhimselfwhyPutinwouldhaveheldback,buttheansweris
veryclear.HewouldhaveworriedabouttakingontheUnitedStates.Nowhedoesnt.Putinhastaughtusthat
credibilitymeanssomething.
Obama,ofcourse,hasadifferentview.Putin,hetellsGoldberg,hasgainednothingfrominterveninginSyria.Tothink
hehasistofundamentallymisunderstandthenatureofpowerinforeignaffairsorintheworldgenerally.Propping
upAssad,Obamaclaims,doesntsuddenlymake[Putin]aplayer.Why,hesays,theresnotaG20meetingwhere
theRussianssettheagendaaroundanyoftheissuesthatareimportant.(YouhavetowonderwhatPutinwillmake
ofthispassagewhenhereadsit:ThepresidentoftheUnitedStatesreallybelievessettingtheagendaofthenext
totallyforgettableG20meetingmattersmorethandecidingwhowinsthecivilwarinSyria?)

Theressomeofthesameself-justificationinthewayObamatalksaboutfreeridersthesmallandmedium
countriesthatcountontheU.S.toprovidefortheirsecurity,withoutponyingupmuchontheirown.Freeriders
aggravatemeisalreadyoneofthemostquotedlinesofTheObamaDoctrine.VirtuallyallAmericanpresidents
haveprobablyfeltthesameway,andfutureoneswilltoo.Theyhavewantedandwillwantallieswhoactually
contributetothecommondefense.

ObamahasgoodreasontobeunhappywithAmericasfriends.SaudiArabia,Turkey,Israel,andothershave
undercuthispolicies.InEuropeheseesinstitutionaldysfunctionrivalingthatofWashington.Yetthepresidentplays
theblamegameinpartbecausehetooresistsdoingmore.Irecentlyheardareporteraskasenioradministration
officialwhethertheU.S.hasevertolditsMiddleEasternpartnersthatitwouldbereadytocommitalimited
contingentofmilitarypersonnelinSyriaaslongastheywoulddothesameanincreasedandcoordinatedeffort.
The(commendablyhonest)answer:No.

Dontdostupidshitisakindofstrategyifyouhaveaclearenoughideaofwhatsstupidandreal
determinationnottodoit.

Free-riderproblemspreoccupysocialscientistsforthesamereasontheyexasperatepolicymakers:Theyrehardto
fix.SohardthatAmericanpresidentshaveoftenconcludedthattherewasonlyoneviablesolution.Tobringwrong-
headedalliesalongandlimittheirworstimpulsestheU.S.itselfhadtodomore,notless.Sure,doinglessmight
forcesomealliestoexertthemselvesmore,butnotnecessarilyinawaythatservedU.S.interests.Obamais
probablyrightthattheTurksandSaudishavemadethingsworseinSyria.Heseemsnottoaskhimselfwhethera
moredeterminedU.S.rolemighthavekepttheminline.

ThedebateaboutSyria,nowfiveyearsold,willoutlastthisadministration.ButitsnottheonlyexampleofObamas
alliancemanagementthatundermineshiscomplaintsaboutfreeriders.Thereis,asGoldbergtellsus,justaboutno
foreignleaderthepresidentrespectsmorethanAngelaMerkel.Noristhereonewhohasdonemoretohelphim.
(WereitnotforMerkelssupportonsanctionsagainstRussia,ObamasUkrainepolicywouldbarelyexist.)No
Europeanleaderhastriedhardertoarticulateatolerant,Obama-styleapproachtotheSyrianrefugeecrisis.Norhas
anyonepaidagreaterpricefordoingso.Merkelfacesboththepossibleendofherpoliticalcareerandthepossible
collapseoftheEuropeanUnion.

WhiteHouseaidesacknowledgetheproblem.IfEuropehasa2016anythinglike2015,oneofthemhastoldme,
therewontbemuchofEuropelefttotalkabout.SowhathastheleaderwhomObamarespectsmost,whohas
donethemostforhim,whohassetoutavisionmostlikehis,andwhohashadthemosttroubleimplementingit,
gottenfromhiminreturn?TheU.S.hasadmittedatrickleofrefugees,NATO-membernavieshavebeguntoregulate
themigrantflowinGreekandTurkishwaters,thePentagoncontinuestostudytheproblemofasafezoneinSyria
andtheWhiteHousecontinuestoexpressdoubtsaboutit.Measuredagainsttheexistentialcrisisfacing
Americasmostimportantallies,thisisntmuch.ItmaywellbewhatObamameansbyAmericanleadership,buthe
shouldntbesurprisedifothersjustascarefulandthoughtfulasheconsiderittoolittletoolate.

Thepresidenthasbeencriticizedfortreatingdontdostupidshit(aphrasefirstsharedwithreportersbyhisaides)
asausefulstatementofAmericanforeign-policystrategy.HillaryClintonmockedthephrasetononeotherthan
JeffreyGoldbergasnotanorganizingprinciple.Yettheformulahasrealmeaning.Dontdostupidshitisakind
ofstrategyifyouhaveaclearenoughideaofwhatsstupidandrealdeterminationnottodoit.Obamahasbothof
these,andhehasmadethemtheorganizingframeworkofadownsized,lessexpensive,morerisk-averseforeign
policy.Forbetterorworse,thisishisdoctrine.Itishelpinghimtocleanthebarn.Whatitmaynotdoissustainthe
Americanroleintheworldthathehimselfclaimstowant.

RelatedVideo
Abehind-the-sceneslookintoObama'slast-minutedecisionnottobombSyriain2013
From: JohnP.Williams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Senttime: 03/05/201610:44:29AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:TASS:World-ThomasGraham:US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera

Tooevenhandedforme,butIlikehiscommentsontacticalvstrategicinM.East.

SentfrommyiPhone

OnMar5,2016,at1:20PM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://tass.ru/en/world/860254

ThomasGraham:US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera

InearlyFebruary,oneoftheleadingUSexpertsonRussia,ThomasGraham,visitedMoscow.Grahamusedto
beSpecialAssistanttothePresidentandSeniorDirectorforRussiaontheNationalSecurityCouncilstafffrom2004
to2007andDirectorforRussianAffairsonthatstafffrom2002to2004.Now,he'sisamanagingdirector
atKissingerAssociates,aswellasoneoftheco-DirectorsoftheRussianStudiesProjectatYale.Onhisreturntothe
UnitedState,ThomasGrahamwasinterviewedbyTASS.

-RussianexpertssaythebreachinrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUSdidnotreallyhappenbecauseofUkraine
buthadothercauses(beginningwithMagnitsky,Snowden,etc).IfnotUkraine,itwouldhavebeensomethingelse,
theysay.Theyalsothinkthebreachislikelytobelong-lastinganditmostprobablywon'tendwiththechangeof
administrationinDC.Doyouagreewiththat?

-Difficultrelationswereinevitable,ifonlybecausetheUnitedStatesandRussiaespouseradicallydifferentviewsofworld
order.Weinterpretdifferentlykeyprinciplessuchassovereignty,territorialintegrity,andself-determinationwedifferover
whatconstitutesthelegitimateuseofforcewedisagreeaboutthelegitimacyofspheresofinfluenceand,ofcourse,wecount
differentnumbersofpolesofpowerintheworldtoday.Twocountrieswithsuchprofounddifferencescanco-exist,andeven
cooperateinamultipolarworld,buttheycanneverbestrategicpartners,asmanyinbothcountrieshadhopedattheendof
theColdWar.Toughcompetitionwasandremainsinevitableallthatwasmissingintheearlypost-ColdWarperiodwasa
Russiastrongenoughtodefenditsinterests.ThatsituationchangedafterPutinrosetopower.

Abreachinrelations,atotalbreakdownincommunication,wasnotinevitable,however.Thatwasaconsequenceoftheway
bothMoscowandWashingtonreactedtotheUkrainecrisis.Eachsideblamestheotherforthebreachneithersideis
preparedtotaketheinitiativeinrestoringties.Simplysaying,asMoscowdoes,thatitispreparedfordialogueifWashington
is,isnotthesameastakingstepstoencouragetheemergenceofdialogue.Wedidnotstartthisisnotaninvitationtorestore
relations.Infact,WashingtonisalsoreadytoendthebreachifonlyMoscowbacksdownonalltheissues-onCrimea
andEasternUkraine,inparticular-thatlieatthecoreofthecurrenttension.Mutatismutandis,thatisMoscowspositiontoo.

Iftherewasacriticalturningpointinpost-SovietUS-RussianrelationsIwoulddateittotheendof2004.Itcamerightafter
thepeakingoodrelationshadbeenreached.Althoughitwasnotrecognizedatthetime,themostpromisingperiodfor
relationscanbedatedroughlyfromtheSeptember2001terroristattacksagainsttheUnitedStatesuntilthemiddleofthefallof
2002,whensharpdifferencesoverhowtodealwithIraqandSaddamHusseinemerged.Thehighpointwasmarkedbythe
JointDeclarationthatPresidentsPutinandBushissuedinMay2002,whichestablishedaframeworkforstrategicpartnership
betweenequalsbasedonahardcalculationofnationalinterest.

Intoneandsubstance,theDeclarationpartedwayswiththejointstatementsissuedearlierbyClintonandYeltsinand
subsequentlybyObamaandMedvedev.TheClintonAdministrationwasdeterminedtotransformRussiaintoafree-market
democracyalongAmericanlines,and,ifittalkedofpartnership,Russiawasdistinctlythejuniorpartner.TheObama
AdministrationwasonlywillingtoworkwithRussiaonanarrowrangeofissuesinwhichRussianparticipationwas
indispensable,primarilyintheareathestrategicarmscontrols,consistentwithObamasinitialsignaturegoalofcreatingaworld
withoutnuclearweapons.InboththeClintonandObamaAdministrationstherewerelargebilateralcommissions(Gore-
ChernomyrdinandtheBilateralPresidentialCommission)thatcreatedanillusionofbroaderpartnership,buttheconcreteresult
inbothcaseswereunderwhelming.

Tobesure,therewerethoseintheBushAdministration-largelyneocons-whodidnotpursuethegoalofstrategic
partnershipingoodfaith,astherewereretrogradeforcesontheRussianside,especiallyinthepowerministries,whofeared
theconsequencesofagenuinestrategicpartnershipandworkedtothwartitsrealization.Buttheimportantpointisthatthe
twoPresidentssharedtheambitiontocreatesuchapartnership.ThatsharedambitionsurvivedeventheAmericanintervention
inIraqinspring2003.Bythefallofthatyear,vigorouseffortswerebeingmadebybothsidestorestorethefoundationsof
partnership.

Theturningpointcameinthefallof2004,bookendedbytwoevents:theBeslantragedySeptemberandtheOrange
RevolutioninUkraineinNovember/December.ThoseeventsledPutinandtherestoftheRussianleadershiptoconcludethat
theUnitedStateswasinfactouttoweakenandcontainRussia,thatcounterterrorismanddemocracypromotionwereboth
smokescreensintendedtomaskAmericasgeopoliticaladvanceintheformerSovietspace.Bythemiddleof2005,Moscow
haddevelopedacoherentstrategytopushbackagainstAmericaninfluencethroughoutthatregion.Thecompetitionthere
sharpenedandpoisonedtheentirerelationship.

Atthesametime,MoscowabandonedanydesiretointegrateintoTransatlanticstructures,whichhadbeentheprimarymotive
behindWashingtonsRussiapolicy.PutindrovethatpointhomeinhisfamousremarksattheMunichSecurityConferencein
February2007.TherefollowedtheRusso-GeorgianWarofAugust2008,inwhichMoscowforthefirsttimedemonstrated
thatitwaspreparedtouseforcetoresistUSencroachments,throughNATOexpansion,intowhatitconsidereditszoneof
privilegedinterests.Washingtonsawthatwarasafundamentalviolationoftherulesthathadgovernedsecurityrelationsin
EuropesinceatleasttheHelsinkiAccordsof1975.

Relationsneverreallyrecovered.Theresetwasabriefinterludeoflimitedachievementbroughttoadefinitiveendona
specificdate:September24,2011,whenPutinannouncedhisdeterminationtoreturntotheKremlinasPresident.Thereafter,
acascadeofeventsonlydeepenedtheestrangement-theprotestsaftertheDumaelections,whichPutinblamedontheUnited
StatestheMagnitskyandDimaYakovlevactstheSnowdenaffairtheUkrainecrisisandnowSyria.

IftheUkrainecrisisbearsaspecialsignificanceitisthis:Bothsidesconcludednotsimplythattherewouldbenoreturnto
businessasusualbutthatareturntobusinessasusualwasnolongerdesirable.Althoughrelationsneednotcontinuetobeas
confrontationalastheynoware,inthefuturerelationswillbebuiltonadifferentfoundation,onhard-nosedcalculationsof
nationalinterest.Thegoalisnolongerstrategicpartnership.Eachsidewillfocusintentlyonwhattheothersidecanbringto
thetabletoadvanceorthwartitspolicygoals,andthenactaccordingly.Thissituationwillnotchangewithanew
administrationinWashington,nomatterwhoiselectedinNovember,barringaradicalchangeinRussiasposture.The
AmericanforeignpolicyestablishmenthasconcludedthatPutinisseekingtoundermineAmericaspositionintheworldthe
RussianforeignpolicyestablishmenthaslongbelievedthattheUnitedStatesisdeterminedtoweakenandcontainRussia.So
US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera.Thepost-ColdWarperiodisover.Whetherthisnewrelationshipwill
ultimatelybemarkedmorebycompetitionorcooperationremainstobeseen,butforthetimebeingcompetitionwill
predominate.

-IfyoutraceeverythingbadbacktoPutin'sreturntoPresidency,thentheonlypolicyoptionfortheUSisregime
changeinRussia.Isit?

-ThereturnofPutinwasaturningpointfortheObamaadministrationbecauseithadwageredonMedvedev'sservinga
secondterm.Putin'sreturncameasashockandspelledanendtothereset.But,asIsaid,theproblemsinrelationsgoback
muchfurtherandtheyconcernfundamentalquestionsofworldorder,notpersonalities.Forthatreason,theywillcontinueno
matterwhothenextpresidentoftheUnitedStatesis.Betterrelationswillcomewhenworlddevelopmentsconvincebothsides
thattheyneedtoworktogethertoadvancetheirrespectivenationalinterests.Whenthatmomentcomes,itwillmakelittle
differencetotheAmericanpresidentifPutinisRussianpresidentornot.HewilldealwiththeRussianpresident,whoeverthat
mightbe.

-SanctionsagainstRussiaarejustatool,ameansofexertingpressure.Soinoneformoranotherthey'llremainin
placeforaslongasWashingtonwantstohavesuchatool.Doyouthinktheyareheretostay?

-SanctionshavebeenaconstantinUS-RussianrelationsforatleastseveraldecadestheywillremainatoolofUSpolicywell
intothefuture(foruseagainstRussiaandothercountries).EveniftheMinskagreementsweretobefullyimplemented,the
UnitedStateswouldretainthesanctionsimposedfortheannexationofCrimea,andtheMagnitskyLawwouldremainin
place.

Opinion

WhetherRussiashouldseektodiscusssanctionsandtheirremovalwiththeUnitedStatesisaquestionRussianswillanswerin
part,Iwouldsuspect,ontheimpactofthosesanctions.Evenifsanctionsareinplace,theUnitedStatescanpursuethemwith
greaterorlesserzeal(theObamaAdministrationhasnotbeenparticularlyactiveinlevyingsanctionsundertheMagnitskyact,
forexampleithasbeenmuchmoreassertiveinimplementingthesanctionslinkedtoRussianactionsinUkraine).And
Americanpresidentsoftenhavetheauthoritytowaivethemforlongerorshorterperiods(fromtheendoftheColdWaruntil
itsrepeal,presidentswaivedtheenforcementofrestrictionsundertheJackon-Vanikamendment).Therewillbetimeswhen
discussingsanctionsmakessensefromthestandpointofRussiannationalinterests,andothertimeswhenitdoesnot.

-DoyouagreethatRussiashouldlettheAmericansthemselvesdothecallingandaskingtomendfences
sinceRussiadidnotinitiatethebreachinrelations?

-ThebreachinrelationsisaproductofactionsandreactionsbybothMoscowandWashingtonforthepastseveralyears.In
otherwords,Moscowbearssomeresponsibilityforthebreakdown:DiditreallybelievethattheUnitedStateswouldcalmly
acceptitsannexationofCrimea?IfthebreakdownisdoingharmtobothcountriesasIbelieveisthecasethenitmakes
littlesensetoquibbleoverwhobearsgreaterresponsibilityforit.Truestatesmenwouldfindawaytorestorerelations.Anda
countrythatfeltitselfstrongwouldbepreparedtotaketheinitiativebecause,confidentofitspowerandcapabilities,itwould
notcareaboutsavingfaceitwouldknowthattakingtheinitiativewasnotasignofweaknessbutratherofwisdom.Only
thevulnerableworryaboutsavingface.

-ActingTreasuryUndersecretarySzubincouldnothavemadehisrecentBBCcommentsaboutPresidentPutin
withoutclearingthemwithhissuperiorsfirst.Dotheyrepresentadangerousescalationandachangeinpolicy?

-Asageneralrule,Ibelieveleadersofmajorcountriesshouldshowoneanotherrespectinpublicbyboththeirwordsand
behavior.ThatentailsboththeWhiteHouseandtheKremlindoingwhatitisintheirpowertodotopreventdirectpersonal
attacksagainstleaders.Inthisregard,neithersideisblameless.Eachsidehasdonemuchtofuelanatmosphereinwhichitis
acceptableforthemediatodemonizetheleaderoftheothercountry.

-Ukraineseemstobeonthewaytoself-destruction,economicallyandpolitically.IsRussiagoingtobetheoneto
pickupthepieces?

-Ukraineisindeedamess.Russia,Europe,andtheUnitedStatesallhaveaninterestinitsstabilization,andintheendallwill
havetoplaysomeroleincalmingthesituationthereandrebuildingtheeconomy.Russiacannotdothatonitsown,especiallyat
atimeofgrowingdomesticsocio-economicstress(thisisonereasonMoscowissoinsistentthattheDonbassremainpartof
Ukraine)norcantheUnitedStatesorEurope,especiallygiventhemountingdisarrayintheEuropeanUnion.

-InSyriatheRussiansseemtobesucceedingwheretheAmericansfailed.WithorwithoutAssad,Russian
interestswillbepreserved.Doyouagree?

Opinion

-InSyria,thequestionishowtodefinesuccess.SincethebeginningofitsmilitaryoperationlastSeptember,Russiahas
secureditsmilitarybasesontheMediterraneancoastandhelpedAssadconsolidatehispositionintheWestofthecountry.It
hasguaranteedthatRussiawillhaveaseatatthetableinanyfuturegeopoliticalreckoningintheMiddleEast.ButRussiais
stillfarfromhavingdefeatedISISandputanendtotheterroristthreattoRussia.Moreover,nomatterwhathappensto
Assad,andinSyriaforthatmatter,thequestionofthefutureequilibriumintheMiddleEastisstillopen.Inthatlight,Russian
successeshavebeentacticaltheyarenotstrategic,thatis,notirreversible.ThefutureequilibriumwilltellwhetherRussiahas
hadsuccessornot.Russiahowever,cannotcreatethisnewequilibriumonitsown.ItwillneedtodealwiththeUnitedStates
insomeway,aswellaswiththemajorregionalpowers,includingIsrael,Iran,SaudiArabia,andTurkey.Themostdifficult
challengesintheMiddleEastlieahead.

InterviewedbyAndreiSitov

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/14/201609:52:55AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[SUNEVE'POWERFULREADS']WSJEDITORIAL:OnSavchenkoonUkraine.....BRIANBOPEDINTHEKP:CondoleezzaRice,Barack
Subject:
ObamaandUkraine

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,March13,20166:16PM
Subject:Fwd:[SUNEVE'POWERFULREADS']WSJEDITORIAL:OnSavchenkoonUkraine.....BRIANBOPEDINTHEKP:Condoleezza
Rice,BarackObamaandUkraine

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Mar13,2016at9:12PM
Subject:[SUNEVE'POWERFULREADS']WSJEDITORIAL:OnSavchenkoonUkraine.....BRIANBOPEDINTHEKP:
CondoleezzaRice,BarackObamaandUkraine
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Date:Sun,Mar13,2016at12:05PM
Subject:WSJEditorialisahardhittingdefenseofSavchenkoandUkraine
To:

PutinsUkrainianHostage
NadyaSavchenkohasbeenheldunjustlyfornearlytwoyears.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-ukrainian-hostage-1457483530

March8,20167:32p.m.ET

33COMMENTS

UkrainianhelicopterpilotNadyaSavchenkoonTuesdayspentherfourthdaywithoutfoodandwaterinaRussianprison.The
34-year-oldIraqWarveteranhasbeenheldfornearlytwoyearsinRussiancaptivity.ShelaunchedherhungerstrikeonFriday
afteraRussiancourtdelayedherfinalstatementinawar-crimestrial.

Lt.SavchenkowasfightingaspartofagroundcombatantunitonJune17,2014,ineasternUkrainewhenpro-Russianforces
tookherhostage.HowdidshewindupinRussia?Moscowsbizarreclaimisthatshewasreleasedbytherebels,thenmadeit
acrosstheborderonherown.RussianprosecutorschargedLt.Savchenkowithillegalentryanddirectingmortarfirethatthey
allegekilledtwojournaliststhatday.YethercellphonelocationdataandvideosshotbyhercaptorsshowthatLt.Savchenko
waselsewhere,andalreadyincaptivity,whenthemortarroundswerefired.Moscowhasnolegaljurisdictionoverher.

TheRussianslastyearsuggestedthattheymightreleasehertoUkrainiancustodyoncethetrialhasconcluded.TheKremlin
knowsthatUkrainianswontcarryoutwhateversentencetheRussiancourtsimpose.MorelikelyMoscowwantstouseheras
abargainingchipintalkswithKiev.

UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkotoldusinanemailthatKievisappealingtotheWesttorampuppressureonMoscow
towinherfreedom.TheEuropeanUniononMondaycalledonRussiatoreleaseLt.Savchenko,citingtheso-calledMinskII
accordsbetweenMoscowandKiev.YetUkrainianarmedforcesthesamedaycountedmorethan50provocationsfromthe
rebelsideintheeast,ofteninvolvingheavy-artilleryfirebannedunderMinskII.

Inotherwords,theaccordremainsaninstrumentbywhichtheWesttiesKievshandswhileMoscowcontinuestoviolate
Ukrainiansovereigntywithimpunity.Ukrainiansremaindefiant,andLt.Savchenkohasbecomethemaininternationalsymbolof
Kievsresistanceagainstthebullynextdoor.

Correction
TuesdaywasthefourthdayofNadyaSavchenkoshungerstrike.Anearlierversionofthisstorymisstatedthe
duration.

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:VRT
Date:2016-03-1312:54GMT-04:00
Subject:BrianBonner:CondoleezzaRice,BarackObamaandUkraine
To:

BrianBonner:CondoleezzaRice,BarackObamaand
Ukraine
backtohomepage

Author:BrianBonnerAllarticlesbythisauthor
Afreeandindependentpressisessentialtoanydemocracy.For21years,theKyivPosthasbeenUkraine'sGlobalVoicein
theEnglishlanguage,coveringthenewswithoutfearorfavor.MoreaboutBrianBonner

http://www.facebook.com/brian.bonner

http://twitter.com/BSBonner

CondoleezzaRice,theformerU.S.secretaryofstate,speaksto300peopleattheDiplomaticAcademyinKyivonMarch9.
ShecameattheinvitationoftheVictorPinchukFoundation.

PhotobyCourtesyofVictorPinchukFoundation

TwogreatAmericanswhoarealsotrailblazingAfrican-Americans,andhenceevengreatersourcesof
prideforcitizenslikeme,revealedtheirthoughtsonUkrainethismonth.
SeeKyivPoststaffphotographerAnastasiaVlasova'sphotogalleryofCondoleezzaRice'svisithere.
Onegotthesituation--andthemessage--morerightthanwrong.
Theotheronegotbothmorewrongthanright.

U.S.PresidentBarackObama,thefirstblackAmericanpresident,gotmysupportfortwotermsinoffice.

GeorgeW.Bush,thepresidentthatCondoleezzaRiceservedasAmerica'ssecondblackandsecond
femaleU.S.secretaryofstate,nevergotmyvote.

ButontheissueofUkraine,ObamawillgodowninhistoryasbadlymistakenwhileRicewillbeseenas
largelycorrect.

ItlooksincreasinglylikelythatthispresidentwillnotevencometoUkraineduringhistimeinoffice,
whichIfindappallinggivenUkraine'sbraverevolutionagainstatyrantanditsevenbraverdefenseagainst
Russia'swar.

ThelastthreepresidentsofAmericahavemadeittoUkraineinthelast25years.

In1991,GeorgeH.W.Bushdeliveredhis"ChickenKiev"speechinKyiv,remarkswrittenbyRice,just
beforetheSovietUnioncollapsed.
In1995,BillClintonmadeittoKyiv.
And,in2008,GeorgeW.Bushalsomadethejourney.
AndObama?He'sgoingtoCubathismonth.TheclosesthemaygettoUkrainethisyearisPoland.
HisdisappointingpolicywasmadepublicinthecurrentissueofTheAtlanticafteraseriesofinterviews
withJeffreyGoldberg.

"PutinactedinUkraineinresponsetoaclientstatethatwasabouttoslipoutofhisgrasp.Andhe
improvisedinawaytohangontohiscontrolthere."ObamatoldGoldberg."Realpowermeansyoucan
getwhatyouwantwithouthavingtoexertviolence.RussiawasmuchmorepowerfulwhenUkraine
lookedlikeanindependentcountrybutwasakleptocracythathecouldpullthestringson."

Oneneednotgoanyfurtherthanthe"client-state"referencetounderstandthatObamaisreadingUkraine
incorrectly.

UkrainecertainlysufferedcenturiesofRussiandominationunderczaristandSovietregimes,butthe
nationhasbeendecisivelymovingforthelastthreeyearstoreduceitsmilitary,politicalandeconomic
dependenceonMoscow.Infact,manyUkrainianhistorianswouldarguethatnationalindependencehas
beentheaspirationofmostUkrainiansduringcenturiesofKremlinrepression.

AsGoldbergwrites:"Obama'stheoryhereissimple:UkraineisacoreRussianinterestbutvulnerableto
militarydominationbyRussianomatterwhatwedo."

AndObamadeliversthisstraw-manargument,oneofmanythatleadhiscriticstocallhim"Obummer"
andtolookforwardtoJan.20,2017,tellingTheAtlantic:"Now,ifthereissomebodyinthistownthat
wouldclaimthatwewouldconsidergoingtowarwithRussiaoverCrimeaandeasternUkraine,they
shouldspeakupandbeveryclearaboutit."

NoonehassuggestedthattheUnitedStatesgotowarwithRussiaoverUkraine.

Whatmanycrediblevoiceshavesuggested--Riceamongthem--isthattheUnitedStatesshouldsupply
Ukrainewithbetterweapons.Othersalsofavormoregenerousfinancialaidandmoreextensivemilitary
training.

Moresupportwouldenablethisgreatnationof45millionpeopletoreduceitsvulnerabilityinRussia's
two-yearwar,duringwhichnearly10,000peoplehavebeenkilledand7percentofUkraine'sterritorylost
whilehundredofkilometersofeasternborderareerased.

ObamawillgodowninhistoryasthepresidentwhofailedtodefendAmericancommitmentstoUkrainian
sovereignty.Heshouldknowbetter.AsajuniorsenatorfromIllinois,hevisitedUkrainein2005and
pushedforlegislationtodestroymuchofthenation'sconventionalweaponrystockpiles,comingafter
Ukrainesurrenderednuclearweaponsunderthetermsofthe1994BudapestMemorandumforwhich
UkrainereceivedguaranteesofsovereigntyfromtheUnitedStates,GreatBritainandRussia.

Thispresidenthasprofoundlymisjudgedthesituation,abdicatingleadershiptoaEuropethatheknows
willnotlead.

UkraineneededweaponsandaMarshallPlan,billionsofdollarsinfinancialaidthatwouldgetspent
underthestrictestcontrols,sinceUkraine'spoliticalleaderscannotbetrustedtospendmoneyinthe
publicinterestontheirown.Obamainsteadgave$500millioninaidand$2billioninloanguarantees.

WhenRussiadeservedIran-stylesanctions,ObamaandEuropedeliveredupsoftonesthatlooked
strongerbecauseofthecollapseinoilandnaturalgasprices,Russia'smainexport.
WhenUkraineneededthestrongmoralsupportthatonlyavisitbyaU.S.presidentcandeliver,Obama
sentU.S.VicePresidentJosephBiden,basicallytellingtheworldhedoesn'tcarebecauseUkraineispart
ofRussia'ssphereofinfluence.(GiventheweakhandthatObamaisdealingoutonUkraine,American
diplomacyunderU.S.AmbassadorGeoffreyR.Pyatthasbeenvaliant.)
RicereturnedtoKyivonMarch9attheinvitationofbillionaireoligarchVictorPinchukwho,basedon
estimatesoftheformersecretaryofstate'sspeakingfees,paidheratleast$150,000fortheday.(That's
theamountshereceivedfrommyalmamater,theUniversityofMinnesota,foraspeechin2014andI
doubtthatPinchukgotadiscount.)
RicedeliveredalectureandansweredquestionsfromstudentsattheDiplomaticAcademyofUkrainein
Kyiv.She'sadynamicspeakerwhoshowedshe'suptospeedonthesituationinUkraine.

ShehaslongfavoredsupplyingUkrainewithlethaldefensiveweaponsasawaytocontainRussian
aggression.ShealsofavorsthecontinuationofeconomicsanctionsagainsttheKremlinandthe
strengtheningofNATOallies,particularlythethreevulnerableBalticstatesthatwerepartoftheSoviet
Union.

SheseesObama'sisolation,orpassivity,asanaturalreactiontoAmericans'wearinesswiththewarsin
IraqandAfghanistan,wagedduringBush'spresidency.WhileRicehasadmittedthattheBush
administrationmademanymistakes,sheremainsproudoftheadministration'sdefenseoffreedom
globally.

Thenextpresident,Ricepredicts,willhavetobemoreactiveontheinternationalstagebecause,during
theObamayears,RussiaandChinahavebecomemoreassertivewhilenootherdemocracyhasstepped
uptofillthevoidofAmerica'sretreat."Weunderstandwhywehavetolead,"shesaid.

WhiletheU.S.relationshipwithRussiaiscomplicated,shesaid,AmericaandtheWestcannotallow
RussiatothreatenothernationsanderaseborderslikeinCrimeaandineasternUkraine.Shebelievesthat
thereturnofCrimeaisnotahopelessprospectifthefreeworldstandsfirm,especiallyconsideringthearc
ofhistorysinceWorldWarII.

ButmostofRice'stalkwasacivicslessonaimedatencouragingUkrainianstodefendtheirindependence,
takecontroloftheirdemocracyandholdtheirleadersaccountable.UkrainianshavetomakeUkraine
workiftheyhopetobetakenseriouslybytherestoftheworld,shesaid.

ShescoldedUkraine'sleaders,sayingtheyneedtodeliverresultsandservethepublicinterest--not
corruptself-interests.Butshealsoputtheonusonordinarycitizens.

"Youhavehadthreerevolutionsin25years,"Ricesaid."It'stimetogovern.Dothisalsoforallofthose
whocamebeforeyou,whofoughtforthedaywhenUkrainewouldbecomeindependentanddemocratic.
Youoweittothem.Youoweittoyourselves.Andyouoweittofuturegenerationstomakesurethatthis
democracydoesnotfail."

KyivPostchiefeditorBrianBonnercanbereachedatbonner@kyivpost.com.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/11/201609:33:09AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[PACCOASTMEGAREADER][WD]Gen.H:USArmyunderstands"lessonslearnedfromUkraine"FPIBulletin:Iran,RussiaPursueIllicit
Subject:
ArmsSales.....[PB]CallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostageSavchenkoList&SavchenkoSanctions......Yats...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,March10,20163:07PM
Subject:Fwd:[PACCOASTMEGAREADER][WD]Gen.H:USArmyunderstands"lessonslearnedfromUkraine"FPIBulletin:Iran,
RussiaPursueIllicitArmsSales.....[PB]CallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostageSavchenkoList&Savchenko
Sanctions......Yats...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at6:01PM
Subject:Fwd:[PACCOASTMEGAREADER][WD]Gen.H:USArmyunderstands"lessonslearnedfromUkraine"FPI
Bulletin:Iran,RussiaPursueIllicitArmsSales.....[PB]CallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostageSavchenkoList&
SavchenkoSanctions......YatsandNatJclearairforwesternmedia......EDM:Socor/McDermott'MustReads'......Putin'sUS
Point-manAverkoDoesMadsenv.BlankCompareContrast[OHBOY!!]

To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Mar9,2016at9:20AM
Subject:U.S.toCounterPutinbySendingEuropeMoreTanks,Helicopters[ED:USArmysees"lessonslearnedfrom
Ukraine"]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca,
bohdan.rn@gmail.com,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>

U.S.toCounterPutinbySendingEuropeMoreTanks,
Helicopters
AnthonyCapaccioACapaccio

March9,201612:00AMEST

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/u-s-to-counter-putin-by-sending-europe-more-tanks-helicopters

S h a r e o n F a c e b o o kS h a r e o n T w i t t e rS h a r e o n W h a t s A p p

S h a r e o n L i n k e d I nS h a r e o n R e d d i tS h a r e o n G o o g l e +E - m a i lS h a r e o n T w i t t e rS h
AnM1A1Abramsbattletank.

Armyistaking`lessonslearnedfromUkraine,'generalsays

EuropeanReassuranceInitiativeincludescyberwarfaretraining

TheU.S.ArmyplanstobolsteritspresenceinEuropenextyearwiththelong-termdeploymentofitsbestarmor,tank-killinghelicoptersand
infantryvehiclescapableofdestroyingRussianarmoredpersonnelcarriers.

TheservicewillincreasetheprepositioningofcombatequipmentthatsoldierssurgingfromtheU.S.coulduseinacrisis,astheU.S.andNATO
worktodeteranassertiveRussiaintheaftermathofPresidentVladimirPutinsinterventioninUkraine,accordingtoArmyofficialsanddocuments.
Theservicealsohasbeenretoolingitstrainingforcestorole-playasRussiantroopsemployingtacticstheymightuseinassaultsagainstUkraines
military,includingcyberwarfare.

Weareworkingveryhard,takingthoselessonslearnedfromUkraineandincorporatingthemattheJointMultinationalReadinessCenter
inHohenfels,Germany,LieutenantGeneralBenHodges,commandinggeneraloftheU.S.ArmyinEurope,saidinaninterviewwithasmallgroupof
reporters.

ThereturntoEuropeofArmyequipmentthatwasparedaftertheColdWarispartoftheDefenseDepartmentsEuropeanReassuranceInitiative.
PresidentBarackObamaisseeking$3.4billionfortheprograminhisproposedfiscal2017budget,fourtimesthefundingthisyear.Thebudgetsays
thegoalistoincreasesecurityandreassureourNATOalliesandpartnerstatesinEuropeinresponsetoincreasingattemptsbytheRussian
Federationtoconstraintheforeignanddomesticpolicychoicesofneighboringcountries.

QuickTake:UkrainesOtherWar

TheinitiativewillmeanthereturntoEuropeoftheM1A2AbramstankandtheAH-64ApacheandUH-60BlackHawkhelicopters.Theyareamong
theArmysBig5systemsthatwerefieldedinthe1980stodeterthethreatofhordesofWarsawPactarmorpoundingthroughthestrategicFulda
GapinGermany.

TheexpansiondoesntportendanincreaseintheArmys30,000-personnelpermanentpresenceinEuropenorslowplanstoreducetheservices
totalforceto450,000byfiscal2018from471,000today.WhiletheaddedequipmentwouldstayinEurope,theArmywouldrotatesomeofitsnine
armoredbrigadecombatteamsthroughtheregion.

SpecialOperations

TheArmywantstospendabout$25milliononlow-profilealliedtrainingbyU.S.specialoperationsforcesaswellaspossiblemissions.Italso
wantstoimprovetheprocessinganddistributionofaerialintelligenceamongalliesintheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization.

HodgescitedthesignificanceofgivingtheoppositionforcesusedintrainingexercisesnewskillsbasedonRussiaslatestmilitaryinitiativesin
specialtiessuchaselectronicwarfareandoffensivecyber-operations.

WevealreadygivenourOPFORthosekindsofcapabilities--cyber,EW,long-rangerocketartillerystrikessowecanstartpracticingagainstthat--
howtocamouflageagain,howtodisperse-thingsthatwehaventdoneinthelastdecade.

Still,HodgesplayeddowntheprospectofopenwarfarewithRussia.AseriouskineticsituationwithRussianforcesisunlikelyandwewantto
keepitunlikely,Hodgessaid.Thatswhatwereabout--keepingitunlikely.

EvelynFarkas,thePentagonsformertopRussiapolicyofficial,saidtheRussiansneedtoknowthatwehavecapableforcesreadytorespond
fastiftheymadeamoveonaNATOally.

DemonstrationofResolve

TheRussianswillunderstandthisisademonstrationofresolvetheallieswilltoo,buttheymaypressformore,shesaidinane-mail.Ialso
hopethatothermajorNATOcountriescontributetotheeasterndeterrenceeffort.

Hodgessaidthefirstarmoredunittoarrivenextyearforanine-monthrotationwillbethe3rdArmoredBrigadeCombatTeamofthe4thinfantry
divisionbasedatFortCarson,Kansas.Atypicalbrigadefieldsabout87tanks,138BradleyFightingVehiclesand18mobilehowitzers.

Everydayoftheyearin2017,2018and2019asfarasIcanseetherewillbeanarmoredbrigadewithallitsequipmentandallofitstroops
conductingexercises,training,Hodgessaid.Thefiscal2017requestincludes$507millionforcontinualarmoredbrigaderotations.

TheexpansionalsoincludesrotatinginacombataviationunitaftertheArmyrecentlydisbandedallbuttheheadquartersofitpreviousunit,the
12thCombatAviationBrigadethatwasstationedforyearsinGermany,Hodgessaid.

ApacheDeterrence

TohavetheApachesthereisanimportantpartofthedeterrence,Hodgessaid.

Astandardcombataviationbrigadeincludesabout2,800personnel,48AH-64Apaches,53UH-60BlackHawksand24ShadowandGrayEagle
drones.

Asmallbutsignificantinitiativecallsforspendingabout$530millionoverseveralyearstoinstall30mmcannonsonArmyStrykerinfantryvehicles
inEurope.

AfterwatchingwhattheUkrainianshavedealtwithwiththeRussians,youhavetothinkaboutifweneedadditionalfirepower--increased
lethality--todestroyRussianpersonnelcarriers,hesaid.

AStrykersnotatank,butifyougofroma20mmtoa30mmitwillenableustobealotmoreeffectiveifweeverdidhaveakineticengagement,
Hodgessaid.

TheArmyplansforGeneralDynamicsCorp.tointegrate30mmcannonsfromOrbitalATKInc.intounmannedProtectorturretsbuiltby
KongsbergGruppenASAofNorway.GeneralDynamicswillfirstbuildeighttestvehicles.

The30mmisabigdeal,JimHasik,aseniordefensefellowattheAtlanticCouncilinWashington,saidinane-mail.Ifranklyusedtodoubtthat,
butIvehadenougharmoredinfantrymentellmeotherwisebecausetheweaponincloseterraincanholdoffheavytanksbydamagingtheir
sensors,weapons,runninggear.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at5:35PM
Subject:FPIBulletin:Iran,RussiaPursueIllicitArmsSales
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca,
MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,bohdan.rn@gmail.com

FPIBulletin:Iran,RussiaPursueIllicitArms
Sales
ByFPISeniorPolicyAnalystTzviKahn

TehransplantopurchaseSukhoi-30(Su-30)fighterjetsandothermilitaryhardwarefromMoscowmarksthelatestIranianattemptto
evadeaU.N.armsembargointhewakeoftheJuly2015nuclearagreement.TheproposedsalereflectsnotonlytheIslamistregimes
hegemonicambitionsintheregion,butalsoitsconfidencethatitcanfloutitsinternationalobligationswithimpunity.TheUnitedStates
shoulddemonstrateotherwisebyvetoingthesaleattheU.N.SecurityCouncil(UNSC)andexactingmeaningfulcostsforIranian
misbehavior.

CapabilitiesoftheSu-30Fighter

IransacquisitionoftheSu-30woulddramaticallystrengthenitsantiquatedairforce,whichcurrentlylacksthecapabilitytoprevailin
virtuallyanyconventionalconflict.AsFarzinNadimioftheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicynotes,thenewfighterscould
significantlyimproveIransairdefense,aerialintercept,andmultirolelong-rangestrikecapabilityupto5,000kmwithaerialrefueling.
Tehranalsoreportedlyseekstobuyadvancedjettrainerandlightattackaircraft,transporthelicopters,mobilecoastaldefensemissile
systems,frigatesanddiesel-electricsubmarines.Thefinaldealmaytotalasmuchas$8billion.

AccordingtoStephenBryen,aformerseniorofficialattheDepartmentofDefense,thedealwillenableIrantodominateitsPersianGulf
rivals,andofferstheregimeananswertoIsraelsairpower.AnanaloguetothelatestversionsoftheF-15andtheF-18,Russian-made
Su-30smaybeeffectiveagainsttheF-22,whichremainsAmericasmostadvanced(andmostexpensive)fighter,andprobablycould
successfullychallengetheF-35provideditisequippedwiththerightlongrangemissiles,thebestradar,andtopnotchjammers.

DeeperTiesbetweenTehranandMoscow

TheSu-30purchasewouldalsobolstertherelationshipbetweenRussiaandIran,whichsharethegoalofunderminingU.S.influencein
theMiddleEast.Inmid-February,duringavisittoMoscowtonegotiatethetransaction,IranianDefenseMinisterHossein
DehghantoldRussiantelevisionthatTehranseekstoexpandmilitaryandtechnicaltieswiththeKremlin.RussianDefenseMinister
SergeiShoigusaidthevisitwillcontributetowardreinforcingfriendlyrelationsbetweenRussianandIranianarmedforces.Tehranand
Moscow,headded,arereadytocoordinatetheirapproachesonalargenumberofglobalandregionalissues.IranianForeignMinistry
SpokesmanHosseinJaberiAnsarinotedseveraldayslaterthatthetwocountrieshavethehighestlevelofpoliticalcooperationandare
keentoboosteconomicties.

Already,suchcoordinationhasexpandedonanunprecedentedscaleovertheeightmonthssincethenucleardeal,formallyknownas
theJointComprehensivePlanofAction(JCPOA).QassemSoleimani,commanderoftheelitemilitaryQudsForce,whichleadsIrans
globalterroristoperations,visitedMoscowfortalkswithRussianleadersonly10daysafterTehranandtheP5+1reachedthe
agreement.Thetrip,whichviolatedaU.N.travelban,laidthegroundworkforMoscowsmilitaryinterventioninSyriatwomonthslateron
behalfoftheAssadregime.

InNovember,Russiaannouncedthatitwouldsoonbeginthelong-awaiteddeliverytoIranoftheadvancedS-300airdefensesystem,
whichwouldmakeamilitarystrikeonIransnuclearfacilitiesfarmoredifficult.WhiletheKremlinreportedlyfrozetheweaponrys
transferinrecentdaysafteritreceivedIsraeliintelligencethatTehranhadtransferredadvancedRussian-madeweaponrytoHezbollah
withoutMoscowsapproval,theplannedsaleconstitutesapotentsymbolofresurgenttiesbetweenthetworegimes.Tehranandthe
Kremlinhadoriginallysignedacontractforthesalein2007,butMoscowcancelledthedealin2010inthefaceofU.S.pressure.In
April2015,withthefinalnuclearagreementjustoverthehorizon,Russiareinstatedthecontract.

TheAdministrationsInadequateResponse

Inthefaceofthesedevelopments,theWhiteHousehasremainedlargelyinert.U.N.SecurityCouncilResolution2231,whichfollowed
theJCPOA,mandatedafive-yearembargoonarmstransferstoIran,includingbattletanks,armouredcombatvehicles,largecaliber
artillerysystems,combataircraft,attackhelicopters,warships,[and]missilesormissilesystems.Atthesametime,theresolution
carvedoutanexceptionforsalesapprovedbytheUNSCinadvanceonacase-by-casebasis,therebygivingvetopowerovera
potentialtransactiontotheUnitedStatesoranyotherpermanentmember.AsRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovnoted,Therewas
acompromisereachedbetweenIranandWesterncolleagueswhichwesupported.Fiveyears,butduringthefiveyearsarmsdeliveries
toIranwouldbepossibleiftheyclearanotificationandverificationprocessintheU.N.SecurityCouncil.

Inthiscontext,theStateDepartmenthasacknowledgedthatanunapprovedSu-30salewouldconstituteaviolation.Nevertheless,
duringaFebruary25hearingoftheHouseForeignAffairsCommittee,SecretaryofStateJohnKerrysidesteppedadirectquestion
concerningU.S.vetoplans,statingonlythattheadministrationisveryconcerned.Wellstayintouchwithyou,headded.TheS-300
system,foritspart,isexemptfromtheembargoduetoitsclassificationasadefensivesystem.

TheObamaadministrationshesitationtoactisconsistentwithitslongstandingpassivityinthefaceofIransongoingdefianceof
internationallawsandnormssincetheJCPOA.Inessence,theWhiteHousefearsthatIranwillrespondtoanyactitperceivesas
hostilebywithdrawingfromthenuclearagreement,effectivelyenablingtheregimetousetheJCPOAasabargainingchiptodeter
meaningfulconsequencesforitsactions.AmericasvacillationattheU.N.thusnotonlysendsIranthemessagethatitcanviolatethe
armsembargowithimpunity,butalsoincentivizesTehransnoncompliancewithitsotherUNSCobligations.Notsurprisingly,
IranconductedballisticmissileteststhisweekinviolationofUNSCR2231followingtwoillicittestsinOctoberandNovember.In
January,theUnitedStatesbelatedlyimposedpinpricksanctionsinresponse,butTehranapparentlyfailedtogetthemessage.

Makingmattersworse,SecretaryKerrynotedlastAugustthattheJCPOAssnapbackmechanism,whichallowstheP5+1toreinstate
sanctionsifIranfloutsitsnuclearobligations,isnottiedtothearmsrestrictions.Itistiedtoaseparatesetofobligations,hesaid.
Sotheyarenotinmaterialbreachofthenuclearagreementforviolatingthearmspieceofit.

EndingAmericanPassivity

TochangeTehransbehavior,theUnitedStatesmustimposemeaningfulconsequencesonIranforitsembargoviolationsandotheracts
ofdefiance.ItcanbeginbyvetoinganyarmssaleattheU.N.SecurityCouncil.Itshouldalsoimposecomprehensivenewsanctionson
IransIslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorpsthekeybeneficiaryofillicitarmstransfers,thecustodianofIransballisticmissileprogram,
andthespearheadofitsregionalaggressionanddomesticrepression.Intheabsenceofsuchsteps,Iranianbelligerencewillcontinue
andrenderUNSCR2231adeadletter.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at12:58PM
Subject:OlegSentsovhurriedlymovedascallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostages::khpg.org
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

SentsovisagoodfilmmakerandagoodUkrainian.He'salsoagoodCrimeanTatar.ThatmakesthreethingsthatterrifyPutin.
ThisisyetanotherstepinthegenocideofCrimeanTatarsbyRussia,agenocidethatgoesbackatleasttwocenturies.

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1456844739

OlegSentsovhurriedlymovedascallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostages
10.03.16|HalyaCoynash

printversion

Readingmuchawaitedletters(Photo:TatyanaShchur)

CrimeanfilmmakerandpoliticalprisonerOlegSentsovhasbeenmovedunexpectedlyfromtheChelyabinskSIZOor
remandprisonwherehehadbeenheldforoveraweek.TatyanaShchur,alocalhumanrightsactivist,saysthatsuch
movesdonotusuallytakeplaceattheweekend,andwondersifthehasteandsecrecywasinconnectionwithNadiya
SavchenkosdryhungerstrikeandinternationalattentiononherimprisonmentandthatofRussiasotherUkrainian
prisoners.

ItisalsogallingthatSentsovhasbeenmovedsincehewasstillgettingoverabadcoughcausedbybeingheldindamp
andovercrowdedbasementcellsinbothSamaraandChelyabinsk.Hisconditionsimprovedafterlocalhumanrights
activistslearnedofhisarrival,anduntilhissuddendisappearanceovertheweekend,hehadbeeninawarmanddrycell
withonlyoneotherperson.Hehadalsobeenvisitedbythelocalhumanrightsombudsperson,MargaritaPavlova.

ThehumanrightsactivistshadevenasaprophylacticmeasureaddedSentsovsnametotheirSafetyRegister.
Thisisalistofpeoplewhohavecomplainedabouttheadministrationtomembersofthepublicsupervisory
commissions.OneofthecommissionsmembersTatyanaShchurexplainsthatanycomplaintsimmediatelyputa
prisonerindangerofretaliation,andtheregistermeansthatthepersoniskeptunderparticularlyclosesurveillanceasa
precautionarymeasure.

TheRussianauthoritieshavenowremovedthepossibilityofsurveillance,anddoneitwithoutanypriorannouncement.
TatyanaShchurreportsthatshelearnedofhismovethroughatextmessagefromanunknowntelephone,sayingonly
thatOlegSentsovhadbeenmoved.

ItcertainlydoesappearthatMoscowistryingtoisolateUkrainianpoliticalprisoners.Sentsovwasinitiallygoingtobesent
toSiberia,nowthedestinationisYakutiaintheFarEast.Fewjournalistsarelikelytotravelthere,andevenSentsovs
lawyerswillhavedifficultyvisiting..

GennadyAfanasyevhasbeeninamaximumsecurityprisoninthefarnorthernrepublicofKomisinceshortlyafterhis
courageousretractionofalltestimonyagainstSentsovonJuly31,2015,andisbeingheldinparticularlyharshconditions.
OleksandrKolchenko,theCrimeancivicactivistsentencedto10yearsinthesamepoliticallymotivatedtrialasSentsov,
istobeheldinaChelyabinskregionprison.Concernhereisarousednotonlybythedistancefromhisfamilyandlawyer,
butalsobythedirereputationofPrisonColonyNo.6inKopeisk.

TheconditionsintheprisoncolonytowhichKolchenkohasbeensentbecamewidelyknownafterarebellionin
November2012.KommersantNewspaperwroteatthetimeabouthow500prisonershadheldatotallypeacefulstrike,
withsomeofthemclimbingontheroofwithasignreadingPeople,help!,theprisonadministrationisextorting$and
Theytortureandhumiliate.Prisonersandtheirrelativestalkofmercilessextortionandexploitationfromprisonstaff.

TheauthoritiesreactedbysendinginspecialunitsandOMONriotpolice.Relativesandfriendsoftheprisonersweretold
thatplannedexerciseswereunderway,howevertheprisonersyelledouttonotdisperseortheyllkillus.Therewas
confrontationbetweenthepeopleoutsideandtheauthorities,withdogssetonthemandviolence,resultinginonewoman
endingupinhospitalwithabrokenarm,andapregnantwomanmiscarrying.

Itseemsthattheactualprisonersrebellionended,throughtheinterventionofhumanrightsactivists,withoutviolence.
TherewasanotherrebellioninNovember2014,when11prisonersslashedtheirveinsinprotestattreatmentofanother
prisonerduringasearchundertakenbyapenitentiaryservicespecialunit(theseareoftencarriedoutwithviolence
againstprisoners).

Theprisoncolonyissupposedtobeforprisonersservingsentencesforseriousandextremelyseriouscrimes.
AccordingtoKommersant,halfwerethereformurder.Mostareveryyoung.

AndnowthereisOleksandrKolchenko,sentencedto10yearseffectivelybecauseofhisoppositiontoRussiasinvasion
andoccupationofhisnativeCrimea.

Sentsov,Kolchenko,GennadyAfanasyevandOleksyChirniyareallCrimeanswhoopposedRussiasinvasionand
annexationofCrimea.TheywereallarrestedinMay2014,andheldincommunicadoforweeksbeforebeingtakento
Russia.There,onMay30,theFSBorRussianSecurityServiceclaimedthattheyhadbeeninvolvedinaRightSector
terroristplot.Therewasnothingtoindicateanypresenceoftheultra-nationalistRightSectorinCrimea,andthenotionin
particularthatKolchenko,aleft-winganarchistwouldbepartofafar-rightmovementsplotwasludicrous.

AllareUkrainiansandwereillegallytakenfromCrimeatoRussiawiththelatterclaimingthattheyhaveautomatically
becomeRussiannationals.KolchenkohaslodgedanapplicationwiththeEuropeanCourtofHumanRightsoverthis
attempttofoistRussiancitizenshiponhim.

Therewasalmosttotalsecrecyaboutthechargesagainstthem,anditwasonlywiththetrialthatitbecameclearthat
therewasabsolutelynothingtowarrantthechargesofterrorism.TherewasnothingagainstSentsovatall,only
testimonygivenbyAfanasyevandChirniywhileheldincommunicado,withoutlawyersandunderthetotalcontrolofthe
FSB.ThecourtignoredthelackofanyevidenceandAfanasyevsclearstatementthatanytestimonyhadbeentortured
outofhim,andsentencedOlegSentsovto20years.

Kolchenkowassentencedto10years.Theonlythinghehaddonewastakepartinanactofprotestinvolvingthe
throwingofaMolotovcocktail.IndeclaringKolchenko,SentsovandAfanasyevpoliticalprisoners,theMemorialHuman
RightsCentrepointedoutthatsimilarMolotovcocktailincidentsresultedinmuchlessseveresentences.

ThereleaseofallfourmenisrequiredundertheMinskAccordsandhasbeenrepeatedlydemandedbytheParliamentary
AssemblyoftheCouncilofEurope,theEuropeanParliament,theUSStateDepartmentandothers.
Pleasewritelettersorpostcardstoallthemen,andremindpoliticiansinyourcountryoftheircase.

IfyoucanwriteinRussian,do,butavoidanydiscussionofthecaseorpolitics.Ifnot,thefollowingwouldbefine(cutand
pastethewordsinRussian,andthesamebelowwiththeaddresses)

,,.

.!

Hello,Iwishyougoodhealth,courageandpatienceandhopethatyouwillsoonbereleased.Youarenotforgotten.[The
lastwordislikehanginthere)

WedonothaveaddressesyetforOlegSentsovandOleksyChirniy,butyoucansendyourlettersto
post.rozuznik[at]gmail.com,acivicinitiativehelpingtogetmailtoRussian-heldpoliticalprisonersTheywilldealwith
writingtheenvelopeandsendingiton.Justcutandpastethenamesasgivenbelow(theyearofbirthaftertheirnameis
requiredbytheprisonservice),YoucandothesameforOleksandrKolchenkoandGennadyAfanasyev,ifyouprefer,but
thereareup-to-dateaddresses.

OleksandrKolchenko

,1989..post.rozuznik[at]gmail.com

OR

456612,.,,.,20.,
,1989..

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at5:25PM
Subject:SavchenkoList&SavchenkoSanctions
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,MykolaHryckowian
<mykcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca

SAVCHENKOLIST:personsinvolvedinpersecutionofN.Savchenko
(update)
13.04.2015
Author:AndriyOsavoliyk

RUPLUK

TheOpenDialogFoundationcallsfortheimpositionofpersonalsanctionsagainstpersonsresponsibleforthekidnapping,arrest
andimprisonmentofUkrainesPACEdelegate,peoplesdeputyoftheVerkhovnaRadaofUkraine,UkrainiancitizenNadiya
Savchenko.

Savchenko,aUkrainianservicewoman,volunteeredtoparticipateintheanti-terroristoperationintheeastof
Ukraine.Shewaskidnappedbyterroristsoftheso-calledLuhanskPeoplesRepublic(LNR)andtakentothe
RussianFederation.SheisbeingfalselyaccusedofinvolvementinthekillingofRussianjournalistsintheATO
zoneandisbeingkeptindetentionontheterritoryoftheRussianFederation.

WeareconvincedthatafailuretopunishtheaccomplicesinthecaseofSavchenkoskidnappingandillegal
detentionwouldconstituteadangerousprecedentininternationallaw.

GiventhattheRussianFederation:
isamemberoftheUnitedNationsOrganisation,OrganisationonSecurityandCooperationinEurope,CouncilofEurope,
andInternationalMonetaryFund
hasratifiedtheConventionagainstTortureandOtherCruel,InhumanorDegradingTreatmentorPunishment,International
CovenantonCivilandPoliticalRights,andUnitedNationsConventionagainstCorruption
isboundbylegalcommitments,laiddownintheEuropeanConventiononHumanRights,

Weappealto

PetroPoroshenko,PresidentofUkraine
ArseniiYatseniuk,Prime-MinisterofUkraine
MembersoftheVerkhovnaRadaofUkraine
BanKi-moon,UnitedNationsSecretaryGeneral
AnneBrasseur,PresidentofPACE
IlkkaKanerva,PresidentofOSCEPA
HughBayley,PresidentofNATOPA
DonaldTusk,PresidentoftheEuropeanCouncil
Jean-ClaudeJuncker,PresidentoftheEuropeanCommission
FedericaMogherini,HighRepresentativeoftheUnionforForeignAffairsandSecurityPolicy
MartinSchulz,PresidentoftheEuropeanParliament
BarackObama,PresidentoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica
MembersofPACE
MembersofOSCEPA
MembersofNATOPA
MembersoftheEuropeanParliament
Europeangovernments.

Witharequestto

Restrictentrytosignatorycountries
Blockaccesstobankaccountsandseizepropertyincountriesinvolved
Assistintheobjectiveinvestigationinto,andproperpunishmentof,thoseresponsibleforthekidnapping,arrestand
imprisonmentofNadiyaSavchenko

Forthoselistedbelow,involvedintheSavchenkocase:

1. PersonsresponsibleforthepoliticaldecisiontokidnapNadiyaSavchenko,transporthertotheterritoryofRussia,detain
herunlawfullyandfabricatechargesagainstherpersonsresponsibleforlegitimisingtheactionsofRussiatowardsNadiya
Savchenkointheeyesoftheinternationalcommunity
2. Personsresponsibleforfabricationofevidenceduringthepre-trialinvestigationofNadiyaSavchenkoscase
3. PersonsresponsibleforpresentingfabricatedevidenceagainstNadiyaSavchenkoduringthecourtproceedingspersons
whotookdecisionsonthelegalityofsaidevidenceandtheextensionofSavchenkosdetainmentperiodotherimmediate
executorsoftheunlawfuldecisions.

DownloadtheSAVCHENKOLISThttp://en.odfoundation.eu/i/fmfiles/pdf/13-04-2015-odf-savchenko-list-
redaction-en_1.pdf?download

DownloadtheSAVCHENKOLIST
519kB

Moreonthistopic:Ukraine,humanrights,Putin,Russia,sanctions,Savchenko,SavchenkoList

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at3:14PM
Subject:Yatseniuk&JareskospeakupandcleartheairforWesternmedia[ED:Someonehadtoslow
theRU/DEZinducedhype]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

UkrainePMchallengespresidenttobackmeorsackme
FT/NeilBuckleyandRomanOlearchykinKiev

UkrainesprimeministerArsenyYatseniukhaschallengedpresidentPetroPoroshenkotobackmeorsackme,sayingdecisive
actionistheonlywayoutofthecountrysmonthlongpoliticalcrisisthatriskstriggeringearlyelectionsandderailingpro
westernreforms.

InaninterviewwiththeFinancialTimes,MrYatseniukcomplainedbitterlyofconstantattacksfromagoverningcoalitionthat
includes136MPsfromthepresidentsparty,sayingitwasuncomfortable[tobe]stabbedintheback.

More

ONTHISTOPIC

Ukrainefinanceministeraimsfortoppost

Ukrainecoalitionhangsbyathread

Kievsurvivesnoconfidencevote

FTViewUkraineslastchancetosecurefreedom

INEUROPE

Italybankingcleanupfacesmergerdelay

Cyprusthreatenstoscupperrefugeepact

Popecracksdownoncanonisationprocess

PolishPMdefiesconstitutionalcourt

Signupnow

Parliament,henoted,hadfailedtopass60percentofgovernmentbills.ButMrYatseniukdefendedhisrecord,insisting
Ukrainewasanentirelydifferentcountryfrom2014,whenarevolutionoustedproRussianpresidentViktorYanukovich.

Hiscommentscameamidintensebackroompoliticalmanoeuvring,withtheUSbornfinanceministerNatalieJareskoandthe
parliamentspeakerVolodymyrGroysmansaidbypoliticalinsiderstohavebeensoundedoutoverthepremiersjob.

Ifthepresidentdoesntwanttoworkwithme,andifhisfactionstronglyopposethisgovernmentandthisprimeminister...I
kindlyrequestwithallduerespecttotaketheresponsibilitytoformthegovernment,topresenttheprogrammeofthenew
governmenttotheUkrainianpeople,andtoformanewcoalition,MrYatseniuksaid.

Takeitorleaveit,backmeorsackme.

Ukrainesdeepestpoliticalcrisissincethe2014revolutionwastriggeredbylastmonthsresignationoftheeconomyminister
AivarasAbromavicius,whosaidithadbecomeimpossibletoimplementreforms.

MrYatseniuksgovernmentsurvivedanoconfidencemotioninparliament.Butheadmittedhisgovernmenthadbeen
weakenedaftersomecoalitionMPssupportedthevoteandtwoofitsfiveconstituentpartieswithdrew.

PoliticaluncertaintyrisksderailinginternationalfinancialsupportforUkraineamidcontinuedattemptsbyRussiatodestabilise
itandpullitbackintoMoscowssphereofinfluence.

TheIMFhasdelayeddisbursementofthenexttrancheofa$17.5bnaidpackageuntilitisclearthegovernmentcancontinue
pushingthroughstructuralreforms.OneseniorofficialwarnedUkrainesfinancialreserveswouldlastonlysixtoeightmonths
withoutIMFsupport.

SomepoliticalcommentatorsdrawparallelswiththeriftbetweenpresidentViktorYushchenkoandpremierYuliaTymoshenko
thatultimatelyunderminedUkraines2004prodemocracyOrangerevolution.

MrYatseniuksaidhehadalwaystriedtoavoidthenotorious2005scenario.Iwillnevercomplainaboutmypresident...I
willbitemyliptotheend.Buttheendistoofar,hequipped.

UkrainesUSbornfinanceministerintalksontoppost

TheprimeministerdidnotdisputereportsthatMsJareskoandothershadbeenintalksoverthetopjob,butdeclinedto
commentfurther.

Mygovernmentsurvivedaconfidencevote,hesaid.Iamabsolutelyopenforanytypeofdiscussion.But...any
governmentneedstogetthesupportofthehouse,hesaid.

PeoplefamiliarwiththesituationtoldtheFTthisweekthatrepresentativesofMrPoroshenkoandMrYatseniuks
parliamentaryfactionshadofferedtobackMsJareskointhepremiersjob,buttalksstalled.

Onepoliticalinsidersuggestedthepremiermightinitiallyhavesupportedsuchascenarioasawayoutofthecrisis,butlater
concludedthefinanceministerlackedparliamentarybackingtobeaneffectivelongtermpremier.

MrYatseniuksaidthecountryfacedthreescenariosareshuffledgovernmentheadedbyhim,anewgovernmentorsnap
elections.Hewasreadywithallhonourtohandovertheofficeoftheprimeministertothestrongestgovernment,the
strongestcoalition,andthebestprogramme.

Someofhisformerpoliticalalliesappearedtofavourearlypolls,headded,butthiswasmisguided.

Afteranysnapparliamentaryelections,trustme,theywillneverbeabletoformanyproreformistandprowestern
government,headded,sayinganynewcoalitionwouldcomprise10differentpartieswithentirelydifferentideologies.

Thepremierinsistedthatcorruptionallegationslevelledagainsthimandassociatesbyopponentsweregroundless.Thisis
slanderanddefamation,hesaid.

MrYatseniuksaidhehadtobeg,toplead,toattackthehousetogetparliamenttobacklegislation.Hehadpresentedone
privatisationbill15times.

Butheadded,thiscountryisentirelydifferentthanitwastwoyearsago...newpolice,newarmy,newfiscalpolicy,new
energypolicy,newsocialpolicy,newfolkssittinginthegovernment...verystrongsociety.

IhavedoneeverythingIcan,inthesecurrentcircumstances.Icandomore,butweneedtopressdownontheaccelerator.

Ukraine'sYareskosaysrumorsfuellingpoliticalcrisis

Ukraine'sFinanceMinisterNataliaYareskospeaksduringaninterviewwithReutersinKiev,Ukraine,November12,2015.

REUTERS/VALENTYNOGIRENKO

UkrainianFinanceMinisterNataliaYareskoonThursdaydeflectedquestionsaboutherchancesofbecomingprimeministerif
thegovernmentcollapsedandsaidsuchspeculationwasfanningtheflamesofthecountry'spoliticalcrisis.

YareskoistoutedasasuccessortoPrimeMinisterArsenyYatseniuk,whonarrowlysurvivedanoconfidencevoteinFebruary
butwhosepopularitywithinthecoalitionandthevotingpublichascollapsedsincetakingofficein2014.

ThecrisishasstymiedUkraine'seffortstosecuremoreaidfromitsinternationalbackers,includingtheInternationalMonetary
Fund,whichiscontingentonKievimplementingreformsandclampingdownoncorruption.

Aforeignbornformerinvestmentmanager,YareskocouldbeapopularchoicewithUkraine'sWesternallies,butitisunclear
whethershewouldhavethepoliticalmuscletopushthroughreformsanyfasterthanYatseniukcould.

"Ithinkitdoesnothelpanyofusrightnowtoengageinspeculation,frankly,"saidYareskoataninvestorconferenceinKiev,
whenquizzedaboutherpossibleroleinanewgovernment.

"Ithinkthespeculationiswhat'scausingthecrisistosomeextent.Somypreferencewouldbetofocusonreality."

WithYatseniuk'scoalitioninturmoil,UkraineandtheIMFhaveyettoagreeonanewmemorandumsettingoutKiev'sprecise
commitmentsonreforms,whichitwilldeliverinexchangeformoreaidworth$1.7billion.

EvenifUkrainesubmitsanewmemoranduminMarch,itwillhavetowaitatleastuntiltheIMFboardmeetsinApriltosecure
themoney,sheadded.

"Thememorandumisalivingdocument,"Yareskosaid."TheIMFhastoknowwhoisgoingtobeinthegovernment...asa
lenderyouwanttoknowapersonwhosigns.TheIMFwantssomeconfidencethattheprogramwillbeimplemented."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:George
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at4:19PM
Subject:EurasiaDailyMonitor---Socor|McDermott(bothgoodreads)
To:"waz2102@columbia.edu"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

INTHISISSUE
*GazpromlookstoreviveSouthStreamthroughtheTurkey-Greece-ItalyInterconnector
*RussiantopbrassaccuseWestofhybridthreatsagainstRussia

TurkeyGreeceItalyInterconnector:SouthStreamsLatestAvatar?

(PartTwo)

RussianGazprom,GreekDEPA/DESFA,andItalianEdisonproposeamodifiedversionofGazpromsSouthStreamproject,
usingtheInterconnectorTurkeyGreeceItaly(ITGIproject)forapipelinecorridortodeliverRussiangastoEurope.This
revampedversionpresupposes(likeSouthStreamsoriginalversion)theconstructionofapipelinefromRussiaacrosstheBlack
SeatoBulgaria,oralternativelytoTurkey(TurkishStream),eitherofthemtofeedintotheITGI(seeEDM,March3,4).

ITGIsoverlandandseabedsections,ontheterritoriesofGreeceandItaly,broadlycorrespondwithSouthStreamsplanned
westboundbranch.TheITGI,ajointventureofItalianEdisonandGreekDEPA/DESFA,couldopenthewayforareinvented
SouthStreamunderthisorthatname,pittingthisprojectagainsttheEuropeanUnionbackedSouthernGasCorridor.Ineffect,
GazpromandtheITGIprojectownerswouldberacingagainsttheEUsproject,alongthesamerouteandtothesamemarket
destination.

Anexaminationoftheinterests,goals,andcapabilitiesofthecompaniesandcountriesinvolvedsuggeststhatGazpromsandits
newallieschancestowinthisracearescant.SouthStreamandITGIaretwosuspendedprojects,bothlookingforanother
chancethroughmutualsynergies.

Moscowssalientinterestsaretwofold.First,toobstructtheEU-backedSouthernCorridorbyfosteringmisleadingperceptions
thatGazprom(intandemwithITGI)mightpreemptthatrouteandthatmarket.Andsecond,tobypassUkrainethroughapipeline
fromRussiaviatheBlackSeatotheBalkansandwesternTurkey.GiventhemodestsizeofBalkancountriesgasmarkets,
however,aBlackSeabypasspipelinecouldnotevenhypotheticallybejustifiedunlessgasvolumesdestinedforItalythroughthe
ITGIareadded.ThusthetwoRussiangoalsareinterrelatedandtheITGIisseen(byitsownersandbyGazprom)asan
opportunitytoconsideragainaRussianpipelineacrosstheBlackSeatoBulgariaorTurkey.

TheKremlinsuspendedSouthStreaminDecember2014,followingtheexitofBulgariaanindispensablelinchpinfromthis
project(seebelow).Lastyear,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinofferedtoshifttherouteacrosstheBlackSeatowardTurkey
rebrandingthewould-bepipelineasTurkishStreamandonwardashortdistancetotheTurkey-Greeceborder,theretofeedinto
theITGI.InDecember2015,however,thepoliticalcrisisbetweenRussiaandTurkeyoverthewarinSyriapromptedPutinto
suspendhisTurkishStreamproposalalso,untilfurthernotice.

Gazpromincurredseriousfinanciallossesin2015,asaresultofSouthStreamssuspension.Thoselosses(compoundingrevenue
shortfallsfromthelowinternationalpricesofgas)affectGazpromscapacitytofinanceanyfurtherpipelineprojectsintheBlack
Seaand/ortheITGIcorridor.Gazpromhaspaidapproximately$1billiontoItalianENI,GermanWintershall,andlectricitde
Francefortheirrespectivestakes(addingupto50percentofthetotalshares)inSouthStreamTransport,theprojectcompanyin
chargeofbuildingthatpipelineacrosstheBlackSea.Furthermore,Gazpromisbeingsuedforalmost$1billionbyItalianSaipem,
amajorsubcontractor,forworkalreadyperformedonSouthStreamsmaritimesection.AndaccordingtoMikhailKorchemkins
estimates,Gazpromhasspent$27billionto$30billiononpipelines,fromSiberiatotheBlackSea,dedicatedtofeedingSouth
Stream,aswellaspreliminaryworkonSouthStreamsoverlandsectionsinEurope(RossbusinessconsultingRBK,February
24).

Meanwhile,RussiaprioritizesitsNordStreamTwoproject,intermsofbothfinancingandplannedgasvolumeallocations.Inthis
situation,GazpromisunlikelytoreviveSouthStreamorTurkishStreamanytimesoon.ThisalsomeansthatRussiadoesnothave
realisticoptionstobypassUkraineviatheBlackSea.Thus,RussiawillhavetocontinueusingUkrainesgastransitsysteminorder
tosupplyRomania,Bulgaria,Macedonia,GreeceandTurkeyswesternprovinceswithRussiangas.Gazprommayhavetoawaita
substantialrecoveryofgaspricesbeforeproceedingwithnewpipelineconstructionintheBlackSeaandtheBalkans.

BulgariawasasinequanontransitcountryforSouthStreambyvirtueofgeography.Bulgaria,however,droppedoutfromSouth
Streamin2014,citingtheEuropeanUnionslegislationoncompetitionandtheenergymarket.TheBulgariangovernmentclingsto
somehopesforaBulgarianStreamgastransitpipeline(tobeowned,however,fullybyBulgaria)andaBalkangasstorageand
regionaldistributionhubnearVarnaforRussian,Azerbaijaniand,eventually,Turkmenistanigas(NaturalGasEurope,February
29).Butthosearedistantvisions.

Morepalpably,BulgariasinterestswillbeservedbytheconstructionoftheInterconnectorsGreeceBulgariaandTurkey
Bulgaria.BothprojectshavebeendeclaredintegralpartsoftheEU-plannedSouthernGasCorridortoEuropeattherecenthigh-
levelmeetinginBaku(Trend,March1).TheGreeceBulgariaInterconnectorbranchesofffromtheITGIatitsGreekinception
point,Komotini,andisplannedtobefedwithgasvolumesfromAzerbaijan.

--VladimirSocor

GerasimovCallsforNewStrategytoCounterColorRevolution

Russiastopbrasshascalledonleadingmilitarytheoristsandspecialistsaswellasthedefenseindustryandthegovernmentto
jointlydevelopasoftpowerstrategytocounterthepotentialthreatfromcolorrevolutions.Theannualgeneralmeetingofthe
AcademyofMilitarySciences(AkademiyaVoyennykhNaukAVN),onFebruary27,sawanumberofinter-linked
presentationsaddressingthenatureofmodernwarfareandtheroleofmilitaryscienceinassessingsuchissues,aswellasakeynote
speechbythechiefoftheGeneralStaff,Army-GeneralValeryGerasimov.ExpertssupportedGerasimovsconclusionthatinorder
tocounterthepossiblesecuritythreatposedbycolorrevolution,Russiamustformanddeveloparangeofsoftpower
instruments.ItwasmadeclearthatacoupinthecolorrevolutionmodelisregardedbyMoscowasaformofhybridwarfare
conductedbyforeignpowersagainstRussiasinterests(RIANovosti,March1).

ColorrevolutionswerecharacterizedasanessentialcomponentinWesternhybridwarfareapproaches,withtheunderlying
messageduringtheconferencebeingthatMoscowmustnowremedythesethreatsbyformingnewanti-hybridcapabilitiesofits
own.GerasimovsspeechhasbroughtfullcirclethediscussiontriggeredbyhiscontroversialarticleinVoyennoPromyshlennyy
KuryerinFebruary2013Gerasimovsassessmentofmoderntrendsinwarfarewassooninterpretedasevidenceoftheexistence
ofaRussianconceptanddoctrinepertainingtohybridwarfare,withmanyrushingtojudgementbasedontheexampleinUkraine
(Kommersant,March1VoyennoPromyshlennyyKuryer,February27,2013).

Amongthethemescoveredbyspeakerswerereformingthemilitary-industrialcomplex,weaponsprocurement,andtheformation
ofprivatemilitarycompanies.Centralelementsinthemilitarytheoreticalframeworkthatformedthebackdroptothepresentations,
especiallyGerasimovsassessments,arefoundintheworkofthecountrysleadingmilitarytheoristArmy-GeneralMakhmut
Gareev,thepresidentoftheAVN.Indeed,inrecentyearsGareevhaswalkedalinebetweentraditionalistsandmodernizersinhis
articlesandspeeches,particularlycallingfornewideasandapproachestohowRussiaconfrontsthechallengesofmodernwarfare.
InhiswrittenanalysispublishedpriortoEuroMaidan,hewarnedthatacolorrevolutioncouldposeadirectthreattoRussian
security(VoyennoPromyshlennyyKuryer,February24,2016December4,2013).

Itisinthiscontext,andfollowingRussiasmilitaryexperiencesinUkraineandSyria,thatGerasimovchosetheAVNtoissuehis
calltoactionagainstcolorrevolutions.Reportedly,Gareevalsoaddressedtheacademyontheresultsofitsactivitiesin2015and
setoutsometasksfortheyearahead.TheAVNconsistsof13academicdepartmentswith21regionalbranches.Ithas98
honorarymembersand2,783professors.Amongtheprofessors,72percentareretiredmilitaryofficersorreservistsand28
percentoftheAVNsmilitaryscientistsarecurrentmembersoftheArmedForces(Kommersant,March1).

Gerasimovframedhiscommentsbynotingthefirmlyestablishedforeignhigh-techwarfareconceptaimedatachievingitsgoals
byremotenon-contactimpactuponenemyforces,usinghigh-precisionandlong-rangesystemsoperatingintheair,seaand
space.Thistrend,accordingtoGerasimov,wasaprominentthemeinthedevelopmentoftheworldsleadingmilitariesinrecent
years,andisnowreflectedinRussiandefenseplanningto2020,includingthePlanofDefenseapprovedbyPresidentPutinand
putintoeffectatthebeginningof2016.HecontinuedbynotingthatRussiafacesabroadrangeofmulti-vectorthreats,especially
linkedtotheuseofsoftpower:political,diplomatic,economic,informational,cybernetic,psychologicalandothernon-military
means.ThemainresultofRussianmilitaryscienceshouldbepractical,leadingthewayinformulatingnewideasandthinkingon
theseissues.Gerasimovelaboratedonthenatureofmilitarythreats,Russiascomplexsecurityenvironment,changesinthenature
ofcombat,aswellasthemeansandmethodsofusingmilitaryforce.Inaddition,heraisedquestionsaboutthefutureprioritiesfor
theArmedForces,includingmodernizationaswellasdevelopingthestrategicrocketforcesandsystemofairandspacedefense
(VoyennoPromyshlennyyKuryer,March8KrasnayaZvezda,February28).

TurningtothethreatposedtoRussiassecurityfromthephenomenonofcolorrevolutions,Gerasimovlinkedthethemesof
globalization,theweakeningofnationalborders,aswellastheemergenceofthefieldofinformationasafundamentalcomponent
inmodernwarfare.Gerasimovbelievesthatthisshiftsthefocustoanintegratedapplicationofpolitical,economic,andinformation
activitiesandothernon-militarymeasuresrelyingonmilitaryforce.Lookingoutoninternationalapproachestomodernwarfare,
theGeneralStaffseeshybridapproachesreadilybeingusedanddevelopedbyotherpowers,which,inturn,meansRussianeeds
toplaycatchup.Inhisview,asoftpowerapproachisneededtocombatcolorrevolutionsusingarangeofmeanspartlyalready
presentintheForeignPolicyConceptbutnecessitatingrefinement.GerasimovwantstheAVNtofurtherstudytrendsinmodern
warfareandtotakeintoaccountlessonslearnedfromtheGreatPatrioticWar,Afghanistanandanti-piracymissions,aswellas
SyriaandCrimea(thoughRussianforcesmetwithlittleresistanceinthelatter).Healsocombinedhiscallforsoftpowercounter
measuresagainstcolorrevolutionswithgreatereffortstostudyoffenseanddefenseinouterspaceandintheinformationspace
(VoyennoPromyshlennyyKuryer,March8KrasnayaZvezda,February28).

ByincludingtheGreatPatrioticWarasanadditionalareademandingstudytostrengthenRussiasapproachestofuturewarfare,
GerasimovwasnotsimplypayinglipservicetotheAVNandtheesteemedroleofGareevwhoseviewswerelargelyshapedby
hisexperienceofthewar.Indeed,thecollectivememoryofJune1941(dateofNaziGermanysinvasionoftheSovietUnion),
distilledeventodayintotheeducationalcultureofthetopbrass,explainstheRussiansecurityelitespredisposedfearofasudden,
surpriseattackmostrecentlyembodiedbytheUnitedStatesPromptGlobalStrikeandmissiledefenseplans,whichdrive
aspectsofMoscowsnuclearmodernization(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,February26).

GerasimovsaddresstotheAVNconfirmsthenon-existenceofaRussianhybriddoctrine,orapproachtowarfareperse.Rather,
accordingtohispublicremarks,GerasimovseestheneedtorespondtotheUnitedStatesandtheNorthAtlanticTreaty
Organization(NATO),whichheclaimsareformingsuchcapabilities(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,February28).

--RogerMcDermott

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at11:48AM
Subject:Media:MadsenVersusBlank[ED:LookataCompare/ContrastMemoPutin'sOwnUS'UsefulIdiot'Mikey
AverkoHasSentAround]
To:

Twoveryrecentlyreleasedextremesonwhat'sinfluencingthecoverageofRussiarelatedmattersintheWest:

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/03/08/the-need-for-cso-teams-in-russia-serbia-china-and-
elsewhere.html

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-does-putin-surprise-us-again-and-again

Ofthetwo,StephenBlankisconsiderablylessaccurate,inadditiontonotprovidingasmuchspecificsasWayne
Madsen.Thatsaid,Sorosisn'tsolelybehindthehypocriticallynegativeandinaccuratecoverageofRussia.

ED:READWAYNEMADSEN[UNREPENTANTSTALINIST]SHOULDWECALLTHEFOLLOWING"HATE
SPEECH"....)))...??]

WAYNEMADSEN|08.03.2016|OPINION

TheNeedforCSOTeamsinRussia,Serbia,China,and
Elsewhere

Whenasinglemulti-billionairecontrolsnotonlyAmericasRadioFreeEurope/RadioFreeAsia/RadioLiberty
operationsinMunichandPragueandhevirtuallyownsandoperatessuchnon-profitnon-governmental
organizationslikeHumanRightsWatchandAmnestyInternational,nationalgovernmentstargetedbysucha
menaceshouldtakenoticeandrespondaggressively.GeorgeSoroswillcontinuetodominatetheforeignpolicyof
aHillaryClintonadministration.Sorosrecentlydonated$8milliontoboostherpresidentialcampaign.

Nation-statesthathavebeenandwillcontinuetobetargetedbySorosssoftpower,whichhasalwaysreceived
morethanawinkandanodfromtheUSCentralIntelligenceAgency,whichbequeathedtohimoperationsofthe
ColdWarpropagandaradiostationsaftertheendoftheColdWar,shouldestablishCounter-SorosOperations
teams,orCSOs,withinforeignministriesorinformationservicestokeeptrackofSorosshugepropaganda
empireanditsowndestabilizationoperations.

Manynationshaveinformationministriesthatservetodisseminatetheirownviewsonvarioussubjectsandevents
thegenerallyacceptedtermbeingpropaganda.However,Sorossoperationsaresointricatelywovenintothe
fabricofsomanynationalgovernments,internationalorganizations,NGOs,politicalparties,universities,media
outlets,andlaborandsocialmovements,itactuallytakesafull-timeefforttotracktheseentitiesandtheiractivities.
SorosoperativeshaveevenpenetratedWikipediainitsEnglishandvariousotherlanguageformatstospread
disinformationandone-sidedpropaganda.

Thereisclearlyarequirementforarestrictedaccessinteractivedatabasefornationalgovernmentsagreeingto
contributeintelligenceonSorosandallhisrelatedandlinkedactivitiestoshareinitsfruits.Thereislittledoubtthat
SorostakesmuchofhismarchingordersfromtheUSCentralIntelligenceAgencywithwhichhehasenjoyeda
longassociationandtheinfluenceoperationselementsoftheUSStateDepartmentandNationalSecurity
Council.AllofSorossinterwovenlinksthroughhisvariedbusiness,intelligence,andsocialnetworkswouldbea
mainfocusofaCounter-SorosOperation,whetheranationalundertakingoracooperativemeasuretakenby
interestedgovernments.

TheleakedUSStateDepartmentclassifiedcablesprovidesexamplesofhowSorossoperationsarepartand
parceloftheUSforeignpolicyandintelligenceapparatuses.ManyareunawarethatbeforeGeorgeSoros
becamesoinvolvedwithcraftingUSforeignpolicy,hisolderbrotherPaulSoroswasinvolvedinfrontingforport
facilityprojectsaroundtheworldthatwereclearlyintheinterestofseniorUSofficials,mostnotably,Henry
Kissinger.KissingerservedasSecretaryofStateandNationalSecurityAdviser,andforatimeheldbothposts
simultaneously,duringtheRichardNixonandGeraldFordadministrations.

DeclassifiedUSStateDepartmentcablesshowthatPaulSorosscompany,SorosAssociatesConsulting
Engineers,wasnegotiatinganewinternationalairportdealAeroIslawiththeArgentinegovernmentonAugust
9,1974,thedayNixonresignedfromofficeandwhenKissingertookfullcommandofAmericanintelligence
operationsandforeignpolicy.AlthoughArgentinaspresidentwasIsabelPeron,theciviliansuccessortothe
previousmilitaryjuntaregime,themilitarycomplexstillwieldedtremendouscontroloverthenationsaffairs,
includingcontrolofseaportoperations.

In1976,theStateDepartment,stillcommandedbyKissinger,helpedarrangeadealforPaulSorostobidona
Libyanportproject.AsKissingerstatedinacabletotheUSembassyinTripoli,NoUScompanyhaswonmajor
primecontractoutsideofLibya'shydrocarbonsectorsince1969.Itwasin1969thatLibyanleaderMuammar
GaddafioverthrewthecorruptKingandestablishedthepeoplesrepublic.Ironically,GeorgeSoroswas
involvedinfosteringtheArabSpringrevolutionthatultimatelyledtoGaddafi'soverthrowandassassination,
celebratedbyMrsClintonwiththeresponse:Wecame,wesaw,hedied,followedbyhertrademarkcackling
andsociopathiclaughter.

AnyCounter-SorosOperationmusttakeintoaccountthecloselinksbetweenSorossOpenSociety
Institute/Foundationandquasi-officialentitiesandNGOs,thosebasedintheUnitedStatesandabroad.Soros
operationsrepresentamulti-headedhydrawithtentaclesextendingintotheUnitedNations,theEuropeanUnion,
theWorldBankandtheInternationalMonetaryFund,theInternationalCriminalCourt,theMunichSecurityand
Bilderbergconferences,RefugeesInternationaltheNewSchoolforSocialResearchinNewYorktheWorld
EconomicForumatDavosandprivatefoundationsliketheFord,Rockefeller,andCarnegieFoundationsandthe
KonradAdenauerStiftunginGermanyandeventheEurovisioncontest.

SorosoperationsaroundtheworldmustcomeunderevencloserscrutinyifMrsClintoniselectedthenextUS
president.AsofFebruary2016,Soros donated$6milliontoClintonssuper-PoliticalActionCommittee(Super
PAC)calledPrioritiesUSAAction.UnderaClintonadministration,Soroswillyieldevengreaterpowerover
AmericanforeignpolicythanhedidduringtheBarackObamaadministration.

SoroscloselycoordinateshisdestabilizationeffortswiththeUSAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)
andtheNationalEndowmentforDemocracy(NED),bothciphersfortheCIA.Sorospretendstocombattheright-
wingandconservativeelementsaroundtheworldbyfinancingleftistandsocialdemocraticpartiesand
movements.Thismerelyacleversmokescreenwhichisengineerednottopromotetheleftbuttocontrolit.The
long-servingpresidentoftheCIA-linkedNED,CarlGershman,beganhisanti-Communistactivitiesonbehalfof
theCIAastheexecutivedirectorforSocialDemocratsUSA(SDUSA),anostensiblyleft-of-centerparty.However,
SDUSAwasafrontfortheCIAtocontrolmoderateleftistsinordertoderailtheinfluenceofMarxistsand
CommunistsintheDemocraticPartyandamongthelaborunions.ThesameSorostacticwasusedtopromote
theDemocraticLeadershipCouncil(DLC)thatendorsedpro-businessandneo-conservativeandneo-liberal
DemocraticpoliticianslikeBillandHillaryClintonattheexpenseofpro-laborandanti-WallStreetDemocratic
politicians.Today,thisSoroscontrivanceisknownastheThirdWay.

Soroshasmanagedtoinfiltrateandneutralizeanumberofleftistpoliticalpartiesaroundtheworldandparticularly
thoseinEuropethathavequestionedtheframeworkandfutureoftheEuropeanUnion.ThegoverningSYRIZA
partyofGreece,PodemosinSpain,andFiveStarinItalyhaveallbeeninfiltratedbySorosoperatives,nowknown
asSorosites(akintoparasites),who,liketheircollegialTrotskyistcounterpartsfromthelastcentury,areonly
interestedincircumventingleftistmovementsnotadvancingtheirbasicdoctrines.SYRIZA,whichranonaplatform
ofrejectingEU-dictatedausteritymeasures,quicklydecidedtowarmlyembracethem.PodemosinSpainwilldo
thesameifitjoinsafuturegovernment.Soros,likeafatalcancer,infiltratesabodypolitic,infectsit,andultimately
killsit.

ThemusclebehindtheBulldozerRevolutionthatoverthrewSerbianpresidentSlobodanMilosevic,OTPOR!and
theCenterforAppliedNonviolentActionandStrategies(CANVAS),aswellastheirleaderSrdjaPopovic,aso-
calledpro-democracyagitator,wereallunmaskedasUSintelligenceassets.Theirtextbookthemedrevolution
operationswerelaterfullyutilizedonthestreetsofTbilisi,Kiev,Chisinau,Moscow,Skopje,Bucharest,Sofia,
Budapest,Podgorica,andfartherafieldinDamascus,Benghazi,Tunis,Cairo,Bangkok,Beirut,HongKong,
Caracas,Quito,andTehran.

TocombatSorosInternationalanditsAmericanandWesternEuropeanandIsraelisponsors,theansweristo
createunitsthatwill1)identifythethreats2)employactivemeasures,includingraidsonSoros-financedoffices
andarrestsoftroublemakingringleaders3)widelypublicizethenatureoftheSorosoperationsandthe
organizationsandindividualswhoarebehindthem4)permanentlyneutralizethethreatsundertheguiseof
nationalsecurity,anti-racketeeringandanti-moneylaunderinglawscurrentlyonthebooks,andconspiracyto
commitstreetviolence.Anymeasuresthatarelessdauntingwillturnouttobequiteuseless.

From: JohnP.Williams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Senttime: 03/05/201610:44:29AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:TASS:World-ThomasGraham:US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera

Tooevenhandedforme,butIlikehiscommentsontacticalvstrategicinM.East.

SentfrommyiPhone

OnMar5,2016,at1:20PM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://tass.ru/en/world/860254

ThomasGraham:US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera

InearlyFebruary,oneoftheleadingUSexpertsonRussia,ThomasGraham,visitedMoscow.Grahamusedto
beSpecialAssistanttothePresidentandSeniorDirectorforRussiaontheNationalSecurityCouncilstafffrom2004
to2007andDirectorforRussianAffairsonthatstafffrom2002to2004.Now,he'sisamanagingdirector
atKissingerAssociates,aswellasoneoftheco-DirectorsoftheRussianStudiesProjectatYale.Onhisreturntothe
UnitedState,ThomasGrahamwasinterviewedbyTASS.

-RussianexpertssaythebreachinrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUSdidnotreallyhappenbecauseofUkraine
buthadothercauses(beginningwithMagnitsky,Snowden,etc).IfnotUkraine,itwouldhavebeensomethingelse,
theysay.Theyalsothinkthebreachislikelytobelong-lastinganditmostprobablywon'tendwiththechangeof
administrationinDC.Doyouagreewiththat?

-Difficultrelationswereinevitable,ifonlybecausetheUnitedStatesandRussiaespouseradicallydifferentviewsofworld
order.Weinterpretdifferentlykeyprinciplessuchassovereignty,territorialintegrity,andself-determinationwedifferover
whatconstitutesthelegitimateuseofforcewedisagreeaboutthelegitimacyofspheresofinfluenceand,ofcourse,wecount
differentnumbersofpolesofpowerintheworldtoday.Twocountrieswithsuchprofounddifferencescanco-exist,andeven
cooperateinamultipolarworld,buttheycanneverbestrategicpartners,asmanyinbothcountrieshadhopedattheendof
theColdWar.Toughcompetitionwasandremainsinevitableallthatwasmissingintheearlypost-ColdWarperiodwasa
Russiastrongenoughtodefenditsinterests.ThatsituationchangedafterPutinrosetopower.

Abreachinrelations,atotalbreakdownincommunication,wasnotinevitable,however.Thatwasaconsequenceoftheway
bothMoscowandWashingtonreactedtotheUkrainecrisis.Eachsideblamestheotherforthebreachneithersideis
preparedtotaketheinitiativeinrestoringties.Simplysaying,asMoscowdoes,thatitispreparedfordialogueifWashington
is,isnotthesameastakingstepstoencouragetheemergenceofdialogue.Wedidnotstartthisisnotaninvitationtorestore
relations.Infact,WashingtonisalsoreadytoendthebreachifonlyMoscowbacksdownonalltheissues-onCrimea
andEasternUkraine,inparticular-thatlieatthecoreofthecurrenttension.Mutatismutandis,thatisMoscowspositiontoo.

Iftherewasacriticalturningpointinpost-SovietUS-RussianrelationsIwoulddateittotheendof2004.Itcamerightafter
thepeakingoodrelationshadbeenreached.Althoughitwasnotrecognizedatthetime,themostpromisingperiodfor
relationscanbedatedroughlyfromtheSeptember2001terroristattacksagainsttheUnitedStatesuntilthemiddleofthefallof
2002,whensharpdifferencesoverhowtodealwithIraqandSaddamHusseinemerged.Thehighpointwasmarkedbythe
JointDeclarationthatPresidentsPutinandBushissuedinMay2002,whichestablishedaframeworkforstrategicpartnership
betweenequalsbasedonahardcalculationofnationalinterest.

Intoneandsubstance,theDeclarationpartedwayswiththejointstatementsissuedearlierbyClintonandYeltsinand
subsequentlybyObamaandMedvedev.TheClintonAdministrationwasdeterminedtotransformRussiaintoafree-market
democracyalongAmericanlines,and,ifittalkedofpartnership,Russiawasdistinctlythejuniorpartner.TheObama
AdministrationwasonlywillingtoworkwithRussiaonanarrowrangeofissuesinwhichRussianparticipationwas
indispensable,primarilyintheareathestrategicarmscontrols,consistentwithObamasinitialsignaturegoalofcreatingaworld
withoutnuclearweapons.InboththeClintonandObamaAdministrationstherewerelargebilateralcommissions(Gore-
ChernomyrdinandtheBilateralPresidentialCommission)thatcreatedanillusionofbroaderpartnership,buttheconcreteresult
inbothcaseswereunderwhelming.

Tobesure,therewerethoseintheBushAdministration-largelyneocons-whodidnotpursuethegoalofstrategic
partnershipingoodfaith,astherewereretrogradeforcesontheRussianside,especiallyinthepowerministries,whofeared
theconsequencesofagenuinestrategicpartnershipandworkedtothwartitsrealization.Buttheimportantpointisthatthe
twoPresidentssharedtheambitiontocreatesuchapartnership.ThatsharedambitionsurvivedeventheAmericanintervention
inIraqinspring2003.Bythefallofthatyear,vigorouseffortswerebeingmadebybothsidestorestorethefoundationsof
partnership.

Theturningpointcameinthefallof2004,bookendedbytwoevents:theBeslantragedySeptemberandtheOrange
RevolutioninUkraineinNovember/December.ThoseeventsledPutinandtherestoftheRussianleadershiptoconcludethat
theUnitedStateswasinfactouttoweakenandcontainRussia,thatcounterterrorismanddemocracypromotionwereboth
smokescreensintendedtomaskAmericasgeopoliticaladvanceintheformerSovietspace.Bythemiddleof2005,Moscow
haddevelopedacoherentstrategytopushbackagainstAmericaninfluencethroughoutthatregion.Thecompetitionthere
sharpenedandpoisonedtheentirerelationship.

Atthesametime,MoscowabandonedanydesiretointegrateintoTransatlanticstructures,whichhadbeentheprimarymotive
behindWashingtonsRussiapolicy.PutindrovethatpointhomeinhisfamousremarksattheMunichSecurityConferencein
February2007.TherefollowedtheRusso-GeorgianWarofAugust2008,inwhichMoscowforthefirsttimedemonstrated
thatitwaspreparedtouseforcetoresistUSencroachments,throughNATOexpansion,intowhatitconsidereditszoneof
privilegedinterests.Washingtonsawthatwarasafundamentalviolationoftherulesthathadgovernedsecurityrelationsin
EuropesinceatleasttheHelsinkiAccordsof1975.

Relationsneverreallyrecovered.Theresetwasabriefinterludeoflimitedachievementbroughttoadefinitiveendona
specificdate:September24,2011,whenPutinannouncedhisdeterminationtoreturntotheKremlinasPresident.Thereafter,
acascadeofeventsonlydeepenedtheestrangement-theprotestsaftertheDumaelections,whichPutinblamedontheUnited
StatestheMagnitskyandDimaYakovlevactstheSnowdenaffairtheUkrainecrisisandnowSyria.

IftheUkrainecrisisbearsaspecialsignificanceitisthis:Bothsidesconcludednotsimplythattherewouldbenoreturnto
businessasusualbutthatareturntobusinessasusualwasnolongerdesirable.Althoughrelationsneednotcontinuetobeas
confrontationalastheynoware,inthefuturerelationswillbebuiltonadifferentfoundation,onhard-nosedcalculationsof
nationalinterest.Thegoalisnolongerstrategicpartnership.Eachsidewillfocusintentlyonwhattheothersidecanbringto
thetabletoadvanceorthwartitspolicygoals,andthenactaccordingly.Thissituationwillnotchangewithanew
administrationinWashington,nomatterwhoiselectedinNovember,barringaradicalchangeinRussiasposture.The
AmericanforeignpolicyestablishmenthasconcludedthatPutinisseekingtoundermineAmericaspositionintheworldthe
RussianforeignpolicyestablishmenthaslongbelievedthattheUnitedStatesisdeterminedtoweakenandcontainRussia.So
US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera.Thepost-ColdWarperiodisover.Whetherthisnewrelationshipwill
ultimatelybemarkedmorebycompetitionorcooperationremainstobeseen,butforthetimebeingcompetitionwill
predominate.

-IfyoutraceeverythingbadbacktoPutin'sreturntoPresidency,thentheonlypolicyoptionfortheUSisregime
changeinRussia.Isit?

-ThereturnofPutinwasaturningpointfortheObamaadministrationbecauseithadwageredonMedvedev'sservinga
secondterm.Putin'sreturncameasashockandspelledanendtothereset.But,asIsaid,theproblemsinrelationsgoback
muchfurtherandtheyconcernfundamentalquestionsofworldorder,notpersonalities.Forthatreason,theywillcontinueno
matterwhothenextpresidentoftheUnitedStatesis.Betterrelationswillcomewhenworlddevelopmentsconvincebothsides
thattheyneedtoworktogethertoadvancetheirrespectivenationalinterests.Whenthatmomentcomes,itwillmakelittle
differencetotheAmericanpresidentifPutinisRussianpresidentornot.HewilldealwiththeRussianpresident,whoeverthat
mightbe.

-SanctionsagainstRussiaarejustatool,ameansofexertingpressure.Soinoneformoranotherthey'llremainin
placeforaslongasWashingtonwantstohavesuchatool.Doyouthinktheyareheretostay?

-SanctionshavebeenaconstantinUS-RussianrelationsforatleastseveraldecadestheywillremainatoolofUSpolicywell
intothefuture(foruseagainstRussiaandothercountries).EveniftheMinskagreementsweretobefullyimplemented,the
UnitedStateswouldretainthesanctionsimposedfortheannexationofCrimea,andtheMagnitskyLawwouldremainin
place.

Opinion

WhetherRussiashouldseektodiscusssanctionsandtheirremovalwiththeUnitedStatesisaquestionRussianswillanswerin
part,Iwouldsuspect,ontheimpactofthosesanctions.Evenifsanctionsareinplace,theUnitedStatescanpursuethemwith
greaterorlesserzeal(theObamaAdministrationhasnotbeenparticularlyactiveinlevyingsanctionsundertheMagnitskyact,
forexampleithasbeenmuchmoreassertiveinimplementingthesanctionslinkedtoRussianactionsinUkraine).And
Americanpresidentsoftenhavetheauthoritytowaivethemforlongerorshorterperiods(fromtheendoftheColdWaruntil
itsrepeal,presidentswaivedtheenforcementofrestrictionsundertheJackon-Vanikamendment).Therewillbetimeswhen
discussingsanctionsmakessensefromthestandpointofRussiannationalinterests,andothertimeswhenitdoesnot.

-DoyouagreethatRussiashouldlettheAmericansthemselvesdothecallingandaskingtomendfences
sinceRussiadidnotinitiatethebreachinrelations?

-ThebreachinrelationsisaproductofactionsandreactionsbybothMoscowandWashingtonforthepastseveralyears.In
otherwords,Moscowbearssomeresponsibilityforthebreakdown:DiditreallybelievethattheUnitedStateswouldcalmly
acceptitsannexationofCrimea?IfthebreakdownisdoingharmtobothcountriesasIbelieveisthecasethenitmakes
littlesensetoquibbleoverwhobearsgreaterresponsibilityforit.Truestatesmenwouldfindawaytorestorerelations.Anda
countrythatfeltitselfstrongwouldbepreparedtotaketheinitiativebecause,confidentofitspowerandcapabilities,itwould
notcareaboutsavingfaceitwouldknowthattakingtheinitiativewasnotasignofweaknessbutratherofwisdom.Only
thevulnerableworryaboutsavingface.

-ActingTreasuryUndersecretarySzubincouldnothavemadehisrecentBBCcommentsaboutPresidentPutin
withoutclearingthemwithhissuperiorsfirst.Dotheyrepresentadangerousescalationandachangeinpolicy?

-Asageneralrule,Ibelieveleadersofmajorcountriesshouldshowoneanotherrespectinpublicbyboththeirwordsand
behavior.ThatentailsboththeWhiteHouseandtheKremlindoingwhatitisintheirpowertodotopreventdirectpersonal
attacksagainstleaders.Inthisregard,neithersideisblameless.Eachsidehasdonemuchtofuelanatmosphereinwhichitis
acceptableforthemediatodemonizetheleaderoftheothercountry.

-Ukraineseemstobeonthewaytoself-destruction,economicallyandpolitically.IsRussiagoingtobetheoneto
pickupthepieces?

-Ukraineisindeedamess.Russia,Europe,andtheUnitedStatesallhaveaninterestinitsstabilization,andintheendallwill
havetoplaysomeroleincalmingthesituationthereandrebuildingtheeconomy.Russiacannotdothatonitsown,especiallyat
atimeofgrowingdomesticsocio-economicstress(thisisonereasonMoscowissoinsistentthattheDonbassremainpartof
Ukraine)norcantheUnitedStatesorEurope,especiallygiventhemountingdisarrayintheEuropeanUnion.

-InSyriatheRussiansseemtobesucceedingwheretheAmericansfailed.WithorwithoutAssad,Russian
interestswillbepreserved.Doyouagree?

Opinion

-InSyria,thequestionishowtodefinesuccess.SincethebeginningofitsmilitaryoperationlastSeptember,Russiahas
secureditsmilitarybasesontheMediterraneancoastandhelpedAssadconsolidatehispositionintheWestofthecountry.It
hasguaranteedthatRussiawillhaveaseatatthetableinanyfuturegeopoliticalreckoningintheMiddleEast.ButRussiais
stillfarfromhavingdefeatedISISandputanendtotheterroristthreattoRussia.Moreover,nomatterwhathappensto
Assad,andinSyriaforthatmatter,thequestionofthefutureequilibriumintheMiddleEastisstillopen.Inthatlight,Russian
successeshavebeentacticaltheyarenotstrategic,thatis,notirreversible.ThefutureequilibriumwilltellwhetherRussiahas
hadsuccessornot.Russiahowever,cannotcreatethisnewequilibriumonitsown.ItwillneedtodealwiththeUnitedStates
insomeway,aswellaswiththemajorregionalpowers,includingIsrael,Iran,SaudiArabia,andTurkey.Themostdifficult
challengesintheMiddleEastlieahead.

InterviewedbyAndreiSitov

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/05/201610:36:04AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[WEEKENDREADINGLIST---PartI][PB]AnneA:IsthistheendoftheWestasweknowit?-WP......[MB]OntheFurtherTrialsofNadiaSavchenko.....[WD]RUWarnsSwedenTalkofJareskoasPM......[AB]OntheDutchReferendum.....[PB]"Bombthrow...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,March05,20167:56AM
Subject:Fwd:[WEEKENDREADINGLIST---PartI][PB]AnneA:IsthistheendoftheWestasweknowit?-WP......[MB]OntheFurtherTrialsofNadiaSavchenko.....[WD]RUWarnsSwedenTalkofJareskoasPM......[AB]OntheDutchReferendum.....[PB]
"Bombthrow...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Mar5,2016at10:55AM
Subject:[WEEKENDREADINGLIST---PartI][PB]AnneA:IsthistheendoftheWestasweknowit?-WP......[MB]OntheFurtherTrialsofNadiaSavchenko.....[WD]RUWarnsSwedenTalkofJareskoasPM......[AB]OntheDutch
Referendum.....[PB]"Bombthrowers"Left&RightinUA[Why??]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Date:Sat,Mar5,2016at9:18AM
Subject:IsthistheendoftheWestasweknowit?-TheWashingtonPost
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

AnneApplebaumonthelongtermcostsofBush'sfantasythattheColdWarwasoverandObama'sfantasyaboutReset

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trump-and-the-end-of-nato/2016/03/04/e8c4b9ca-e146-11e5-8d98-4b3d9215ade1_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_headlines

IsthistheEndoftheWestasWeKnowIt?

RepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpgestureswhilespeakingatarallyatMacombCommunityCollege,Friday,March4,2016,inWarren,Mich.(CarlosOsorio/AP)

ByAnneApplebaumColumnistMarch4at4:32PM

Backinthe1950s,whentheinstitutionswerestillnewandshaky,ImsuremanypeoplefearedtheWesternalliancemightnevertakeoff.Perhapsinthe1970s,theeraoftheRed
BrigadesandVietnam,manymorefearedthattheWestwouldnotsurvive.Butinmyadultlife,Icannotrememberamomentasdramaticasthis:Rightnow,wearetwoorthreebad
electionsawayfromtheendofNATO,theendoftheEuropeanUnionandmaybetheendoftheliberalworldorderasweknowit.
IntheUnitedStates,wearefacedwiththerealpossibilityofRepublicanPartypresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump,whichmeanswehavetotakeseriouslythepossibilityofaPresident
Trump.HillaryClintonscampaignmightimplodeforanynumberofreasons,tooobvioustorehashhereelectionsarefunnythings,andelectoratesarefickle.Thatmeansthatnext
Januarywecouldhave,intheWhiteHouse,amanwhoistotallyuninterestedinwhatpresidentsObama,Bush,Clinton,ReaganaswellasJohnson,NixonandTrumanwouldall
havecalledoursharedvalues.

Trumphasadvocatedtorture,mass
AnneApplebaumwritesabiweeklyforeignaffairscolumnforTheWashingtonPost.SheisalsotheDirectoroftheGlobalTransitionsProgramattheLegatumInstituteinLondon.ViewArchive deportation,religious
Facebook discrimination.Hebragsthathe
RSS wouldnotcarethatmuchwhether
UkrainewereadmittedtoNATOhe
hasnointerestinNATOanditssecurityguarantees.OfEurope,hehaswrittenthattheirconflictsarenotworthAmericanlives.PullingbackfromEuropewouldsavethiscountry
millionsofdollarsannually.Inanycase,heprefersthecompanyofdictatorstothatofotherdemocrats.Youcanmakedealswiththosepeople,hesaidofRussia.Iwouldhaveagreat
relationshipwith[Vladimir]Putin.

NotonlyisTrumpuninterestedinAmericasalliances,hewouldbeincapableofsustainingthem.Inpractice,bothmilitaryandeconomicunionsrequirenottheskillsofashadyproperty
magnatewhomakesdealsbutboringnegotiations,unsatisfyingcompromisesand,sometimes,thesacrificeofonesownnationalpreferencesforthegreatergood.Inanerawhen
foreignpolicydebatehasinmostWesterncountriesdisappearedaltogether,replacedbytherealityTVofpoliticalentertainment,allofthesethingsaremuchhardertoexplainandjustify
toapublicthatisntremotelyinterested.

AndAmericansarenttheonlyoneswhofindtheiralliancesburdensome.Ayearfromnow,Francealsoholdsapresidentialelection.Oneofthefront-runners,MarineLePenofthe
NationalFront,haspromisedtoleavebothNATOandtheE.U.,tonationalizeFrenchcompaniesandtorestrictforeigninvestors.LikeTrump,sheforeseesaspecialrelationshipwith
Russia,whosebanksarefundingherelectioncampaign.Frenchfriendsassuremethatifshemakesittothefinalround,thecenter-leftandcenter-rightwillbandtogether,astheydid
twodecadesagoagainstherfather.Butelectionsarefunnythings,andelectoratesarefickle.WhatifLePensopponentsuddenlyfallsvictimtoascandal?WhatifanotherIslamicState
attackjoltsParis.

Bythetimethathappens,Britainmayalsobehalfwayoutthedoor.InJune,theBritishvoteinareferendumtoleavetheE.U.Rightnow,thevoteistooclosetocallandiftheleave
voteprevails,then,asIvewritten,allbetsareoff.CopycatreferendumsmayfollowinotherE.U.countriestoo.ViktorOrban,theHungarianprimeminister,sometimesspeaksofleaving
theWestinfavorofastrategicalliancewithIstanbulorMoscow.

ItsnothardatalltoimagineaBritainunmooredfromEuropedriftingawayfromthetransatlanticallianceaswell.IftheeconomicturmoilthatcouldfollowaBritishexitfromtheE.U.
weresufficientlysevere,perhapstheBritishpublicwouldvoteoutitsconservativegovernmentinfavoroftheLabourParty,whoseleadershipisnowradicallyanti-American.Everyone
discountsJeremyCorbyn,thefar-leftLabourleader,buttheyalsodiscountedTrump.Corbynistheonlyviablealternativeifthepublicwantsachange.Electionsarefunnythings,and
electoratesarefickle.

Andthen?WithoutFrance,Europessinglemarketwillceasetoexist.WithoutBritain,itshardtoseehowNATOlastslongeither.Noteveryonewillbesorry.AsTrumpsappealing
rhetoricmakesclear,thecostsofalliances(millionsofdollarsannually)areeasiertoseethanthelonger-termgains.

Westernunity,nucleardeterrenceandstandingarmiesgaveusmorethanahalfcenturyofpoliticalstability.SharedeconomicspacehelpedbringprosperityandfreedomtoEuropeand
NorthAmericaalike.Butthesearethingsthatwealltakeforgranted,untiltheyaregone.

ReadmorefromAnneApplebaumsarchive,followheronTwitterorsubscribetoherupdatesonFacebook.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Mar5,2016at8:52AM
Subject:UkrainianPilotSavchenkotoGiveFinalAddresstoRussianCourt|ExtraNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://news.usa.extra.hu/latest/ukrainian-pilot-savchenko-to-give-final-address-to-russian-court

UkrainianPilotSavchenkotoGiveFinalAddresstoRussianCourt
UkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiaSavchenko,whoisaccusedofkillingtwoRussianjournalists,isduetomakeherfinaladdresstoacourtonThursday,RussianindependentbusinesschannelRBCreports.

SavchenkowasdetainedineasternUkrainebyMoscow-backedseparatistsinJune2014.SheisaccusedofdirectingfirefromhostilitiesinUkrainetowardsRussianjournalistsoutofhatredfor
Russianswhilefightingpro-Russianrebelsasamemberofavolunteerbattalion,beforebeingcapturedwhiletryingtosneakintoRussia,posingasarefugee.

Savchenkosdefenselawyerhasrefutedthis,explainingthatthepilotwascapturedbyrebelslongbeforethejournalistsdiedandillegallyabductedtoRussia.Since,shehasbecomeasymbolofUkraines
oppositiontopro-RussianfightersathomeandherimagefrequentlyadornsbannersintheUkrainianparliament.

TheprosecutionhassaidSavchenkosguilthasbeenprovenbeyonddoubtandisseekinga23-yearprisonsentenceandafineof100,000roubles($1,350).

Duringthefive-monthtrial,UkrainecapturedtwoRussianparatroopersfightingineasternUkraine,whichfueledmediaspeculationthatadealcouldseethemexchangedforSavchenko.Itisunclearifthis
proposalwasdiscussedbyKievandRussiainearnest.

However,SavchenkoalludedtothisincourtonTuesdaywhen,asUkrainiannewschannelTSNreported,shetoldthecourtsherefusedanexchangeoftwoguiltyGRUsoldiersforaninnocentone.

HerfinaladdressisexpectedtobepoliticalanditisunclearifshewilladdressthecourtinRussianorUkrainianasshehaspreviouslysometimesoptedtospeakinRussiansoasnottowastetimewitha
translator....
PublishedBy:newsweek-2daysago

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Mar5,2016at12:10AM
Subject:RussiawarnsSwedenitwillfacemilitaryactionifitjoinsNato
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>

RussiawarnsSwedenitwillfacemilitaryactionifitjoinsNato
Russianambassadorsaystheywould"resorttoaresponseofthemilitarykindandre-orientateourtroopsandmissiles"

ZacharyDaviesBoren
@zdboren
Friday19June2015
RussiahaswarnedSwedenagainstjoiningNatoGettyImages

Russiawouldtakemilitary"countermeasures"ifSwedenweretojoinNato,accordingtotheRussianambassodor.

InaninterviewwithSwedishnewspaperDagensNyheter,ViktorTatarinstevwarnedagainstjoiningtheNatoalliance,sayingtherewouldbe"consequences".

Decryingwhathecalledan"aggressivepropagandacampaign"bythemedia,Tatarinstevstressedthat"Swedenisnotatargetforourarmedtroops".

ButwitharecentsurgeofSwedishsupportforjoiningNato,theambassadorsaid:"Ifithappens,therewillbecountermeasures.

"Putinpointedoutthattherewillbeconsequences,thatRussiawillhavetoresorttoaresponseofthemilitarykindandre-orientateourtroopsandmissiles.

"ThecountrythatjoinsNatoneedstobeawareoftherisksitisexposingitselfto."

TensionsbetweenRussiaandtheWesternworld
Despitetheswinginpublicopinion-31percentofSwedeswantstojoinNato,upfrom17percentin2012-RussiaisconfidentthatthecountrywillnotopttojointheWesternmilitaryorganisation.

Hesaid:"Idon'tthinkitwillbecomerelevantinthenearfuture."

READMORE
RussiaandNatoaccuseeachotherofColdWar-eraintimidation
FulllistofincidentsinvolvingRussianmilitaryandNato
GreeceturnstoRussiaascrisislooms

TatarinstevblamedsouringSwedish-Russianrelationsonamediacampaigninwhich"Russiaisoftendescribedasanattackerwhoonlythinksofconductingwarsandthreateningothers".

LastyearaseriesofreportsindicatedincreasedRussianmilitarypresenceintheBalticsea,withfighter-bombersspottedinSwedishairspaceandaforeignsubmarineseeninSwedishwaters.

ForeignMinisterCarlBildtreferredtotheformeras"themostseriousaerialincursionbytheRussians"inalmostadecade.

AndDefenceMinisterPeterHultqvisthassinceannouncedSwedenwillbeupgradingitsnavyfleetsoitcanbetterdetectsubmarineactivity

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-warns-sweden-it-will-face-military-action-if-it-joins-nato-10331397.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Mar4,2016at11:35PM
Subject:JareskomaybecomePM,putsforwardcertainconditions-media
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>

JareskomaybecomePM,putsforwardcertainconditionsmedia
04.03.2016|19:54

http://www.unian.info/politics/1283373-jaresko-may-become-pm-puts-forward-certain-conditions-media.html

UkrainianFinanceMinisterNatalieJareskohastentativelyagreedtobecomethePrimeMinisterafteraweekofnegotiations,UkrainianonlinenewspaperUkrainskaPravdareportedwithreferencetoitssourcesinthe
presidentialadministration.

PhotofromUNIAN

Accordingtothereport,astrategicgroupofseven,whichincludesthepresident'sclosestentourage,continuestoinsistonArseniyYatsenyuk'sresignation.

ItisreportedthattalkswithFinanceMinisterJareskowereconductedduringthelastweek,andsheissaidtohavetentativelyagreedtoheadtheCabinetofMinisters,whileputtingforwardcertainconditions.Theyarerelated,interalia,toa
technocraticgovernmentwithoutpartyquotas,andtheabsenceofanypoliticalpressurefromanyside.Jareskoalsoinsistsonadirectdialoguewiththeparliamentandsupportforgovernmentinitiativesbyallfactionsofthecoalition,includingthe
BlocofPetroPoroshenko,accordingtothesources.

ThefinanceministeralsoproposedseveralcandidatesforpostsinthefuturegovernmentBorysLozhkinandDmytroShymkivasVice-Premiers,DeputyEconomyMinisterYuliaKuznetsovaasEnergyMinister.

Atthis,Jareskoalsomentionedthosewhowerenotwelcomedinanewgovernment:DeputyHeadofPresidentialAdministrationVitaliiyKovalchuk,whohaspreviouslysoughttobecomeFirstDeputyPrime-MinisterfortheEconomy,aswellas
EnergyMinisterVolodymyrDemchyshynandSocialPolicyMinisterPavloRozenko.

Sourcestoldthatthepresidentialadministrationhadtentativelyagreedwiththeconditions.

Atthesametime,itisreportedthatothercandidatesforthepostofprimeministerarebeingdiscussedinthepresident'scircle.

Accordingtothereport,opponentsoftheincumbentprimeministerstatedtheywerereadytoinitiateanextraordinaryparliamentarysessionnextweek,preliminaryonMarch9-10,duringwhichYatsenyukisexpectedtoannouncehisvoluntary
resignation.

ReadmoreonUNIAN:http://www.unian.info/politics/1283373-jaresko-may-become-pm-puts-forward-certain-conditions-media.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>
Date:Fri,Mar4,2016at7:38PM
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#842[ED:OntheDutchRefendum:Howademocratictoolbecameathreattodemocracy]
To:wazWAZ<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,"drdenny324@gmail.com"<drdenny324@gmail.com>,"nestory@juno.com"<nestory@juno.com>,

ThethingsthatwilldestroyAmericaarepeaceatanyprice,
prosperityatanycost,safetyfirstinsteadofdutyfirst,
theloveofsoftliving,andtheget-rich-quicktheoryoflife.

TheodoreRoosevelt

Howademocratictoolbecameathreattodemocracy
04.03.16|RobertvanVoren

FordecadestheDutchpoliticalpartyDemocrats66campaignedfortheintroductionofareferendumaspartofpoliticallifeinTheNetherlands.Themainreasonwastobringpolitics
closertothepeople,toletthemhaveasayinkeyissuesthataffectedthecountry,andstrengthentheconnectionbetweenpoliticiansandthecitizens.Intheendtheysucceeded,andan
advisoryreferendumwasaddedtotheDutchpoliticalsystem.Howcouldtheyimaginethatthiscreation,introducedastheultimatetoolofdemocraticgovernance,wouldbecamea
mechanismhijackedandusedfornon-democraticpurposes?

YetthatiswhathashappenedinTheNetherlandsoverthepastmonths.TheDutchorganizationGeenPeil,thatitselfproclaimsthatitistendentious,unfoundedandunnecessarily
insulting,managedtofindmorethan400,000DutchcitizenswhoonlinepushedthebuttonyesinfavorofareferendumontheUkraine-EUAssociationAgreement.Initselfthisisa
feat,onehastoadmit,althoughonehastokeepinmindthatpushingacomputerbuttonisprettyeasyandcostsnothing,andthatifonetellsyouitisforyourbenefit,togiveyouback
yourinfluenceoverpoliticians,tofightthecorruptbureaucracyinBrussels,tocounterthethievesandscoundrelsthatpoliticiansare,itisnotsodifficulttofind400,000Dutchmento
pushyes(Themainfeatisactuallytofind400,000wholiveonsuchunderbellyfeelingsandatthesametimeuseinternet).

Withsuchanumberofcitizenswhovotedinfavor,thegovernmenthadnochoicebuttoorganizeareferendum.Andwhatsortofreferendum:tovoteinfavororagainstanagreementthat
issocomplexthathardlyanybodyreadit,inparticularthosewhosupportedthereferenduminthefirstplaceandpushedyes,butundoubtedlyalsothosewhoorganizedthecampaign.
Becauseletitbeknown:JanRoosandThierryBaudet,theorganizersofthecampaign,haveneverbeeninUkraineandjudgingbytheirremarksandstatementstheyhardlyhavean
ideaofwhatishappeninginthatcountry.TheyseeitasacorrupthellholerunbyfascistsandoligarchswithhalfthepopulationwantingtobewithRussia
Peopledontunderstandthereisalaughingthird:adog-awolfinfactwaitingtorunawaywiththebone.ThebiggestthreatsincetheSecondWorldWarissittingintheKremlin,a
concoctionofKGB-nihilismandextremecriminalitythathasbeenmergedintoafrighteningforcethatnowthreatensdemocraticEurope.Theirbasicrulesofthegamearesimple:the
EuropeanUnionmustcrumblebeforeRussiagoesdownthedrain.Allbuttonsarebeingpushedallmoleshavebeenactivated.YoudonthavetobeaKreminologistorSovietologistto
understandwhatisgoingon.Justuseyourbrainandopenyoureyesandyouwillseewhatishappening.
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1457044663

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Fri,Mar4,2016at3:16PM
Subject:SergiiLeshchenko:Dividingcorruptionbetweenthemselves
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

LeschenkoathisbesttryingtoteardowneverythingmuchtoPutin'sdelight!

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/sergii-leshchenko-dividing-corruption-between-themselves-409343.html

[ED:ImportantcommentatorshavebeenveryquietlynotingthatthegroupsinUAontheultraright(sportingthethe'lighteningbolt/halfhokenkrautz'emblemssobelovedbytheRUmedia)andtheultraleft(UA'Occupy
WS'types'poundingthethemethatUAisnothingbutacorruptoligarchy')arebadlypenetratedbyRUIntelseecaseinpointbelow.FitsnicelywithRUideologueDugin'sNationalBolshevikconceptofmarryingtheUltra
Left&UltraRightthroughoutEurope]

SecurityServiceofUkrainepossessesaudiorecordsofKrasnovsconversationswithhisRussiansupervisor
PublicprosecutioninvestigatorsincriminatedheadoftheciviliancorpsAzov-KrymStanislavKrasnovwithhavingcommittedtreason.Thecourtcouldnotimposeapre-trialrestrainonhim.KrasnovhasbeenmaintainingcommunicationwithanofficerofMainIntelligence
DirectorateoftheRussianFederation(GRU)KonstantinGoloskokovsince2014.Hehasbeenworkingundercoverofso-calledantifascistmovementNashi(eng.Ours)whichisactivelyusedbyRussianspecialservicestoconductanti-Ukrainianactivity,said
OleksandrTkachuk,chiefofstafffortheheadoftheSecurityServiceofUkraine(SBU)atapressbriefingatUkraineCrisisMediaCenter.>>>>

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 03/11/201609:33:09AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[PACCOASTMEGAREADER][WD]Gen.H:USArmyunderstands"lessonslearnedfromUkraine"FPIBulletin:Iran,RussiaPursueIllicit
Subject:
ArmsSales.....[PB]CallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostageSavchenkoList&SavchenkoSanctions......Yats...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,March10,20163:07PM
Subject:Fwd:[PACCOASTMEGAREADER][WD]Gen.H:USArmyunderstands"lessonslearnedfromUkraine"FPIBulletin:Iran,
RussiaPursueIllicitArmsSales.....[PB]CallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostageSavchenkoList&Savchenko
Sanctions......Yats...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at6:01PM
Subject:Fwd:[PACCOASTMEGAREADER][WD]Gen.H:USArmyunderstands"lessonslearnedfromUkraine"FPI
Bulletin:Iran,RussiaPursueIllicitArmsSales.....[PB]CallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostageSavchenkoList&
SavchenkoSanctions......YatsandNatJclearairforwesternmedia......EDM:Socor/McDermott'MustReads'......Putin'sUS
Point-manAverkoDoesMadsenv.BlankCompareContrast[OHBOY!!]

To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Wed,Mar9,2016at9:20AM
Subject:U.S.toCounterPutinbySendingEuropeMoreTanks,Helicopters[ED:USArmysees"lessonslearnedfrom
Ukraine"]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca,
bohdan.rn@gmail.com,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>

U.S.toCounterPutinbySendingEuropeMoreTanks,
Helicopters
AnthonyCapaccioACapaccio

March9,201612:00AMEST

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/u-s-to-counter-putin-by-sending-europe-more-tanks-helicopters

S h a r e o n F a c e b o o kS h a r e o n T w i t t e rS h a r e o n W h a t s A p p

S h a r e o n L i n k e d I nS h a r e o n R e d d i tS h a r e o n G o o g l e +E - m a i lS h a r e o n T w i t t e rS h
AnM1A1Abramsbattletank.

Armyistaking`lessonslearnedfromUkraine,'generalsays

EuropeanReassuranceInitiativeincludescyberwarfaretraining

TheU.S.ArmyplanstobolsteritspresenceinEuropenextyearwiththelong-termdeploymentofitsbestarmor,tank-killinghelicoptersand
infantryvehiclescapableofdestroyingRussianarmoredpersonnelcarriers.

TheservicewillincreasetheprepositioningofcombatequipmentthatsoldierssurgingfromtheU.S.coulduseinacrisis,astheU.S.andNATO
worktodeteranassertiveRussiaintheaftermathofPresidentVladimirPutinsinterventioninUkraine,accordingtoArmyofficialsanddocuments.
Theservicealsohasbeenretoolingitstrainingforcestorole-playasRussiantroopsemployingtacticstheymightuseinassaultsagainstUkraines
military,includingcyberwarfare.

Weareworkingveryhard,takingthoselessonslearnedfromUkraineandincorporatingthemattheJointMultinationalReadinessCenter
inHohenfels,Germany,LieutenantGeneralBenHodges,commandinggeneraloftheU.S.ArmyinEurope,saidinaninterviewwithasmallgroupof
reporters.

ThereturntoEuropeofArmyequipmentthatwasparedaftertheColdWarispartoftheDefenseDepartmentsEuropeanReassuranceInitiative.
PresidentBarackObamaisseeking$3.4billionfortheprograminhisproposedfiscal2017budget,fourtimesthefundingthisyear.Thebudgetsays
thegoalistoincreasesecurityandreassureourNATOalliesandpartnerstatesinEuropeinresponsetoincreasingattemptsbytheRussian
Federationtoconstraintheforeignanddomesticpolicychoicesofneighboringcountries.

QuickTake:UkrainesOtherWar

TheinitiativewillmeanthereturntoEuropeoftheM1A2AbramstankandtheAH-64ApacheandUH-60BlackHawkhelicopters.Theyareamong
theArmysBig5systemsthatwerefieldedinthe1980stodeterthethreatofhordesofWarsawPactarmorpoundingthroughthestrategicFulda
GapinGermany.

TheexpansiondoesntportendanincreaseintheArmys30,000-personnelpermanentpresenceinEuropenorslowplanstoreducetheservices
totalforceto450,000byfiscal2018from471,000today.WhiletheaddedequipmentwouldstayinEurope,theArmywouldrotatesomeofitsnine
armoredbrigadecombatteamsthroughtheregion.

SpecialOperations

TheArmywantstospendabout$25milliononlow-profilealliedtrainingbyU.S.specialoperationsforcesaswellaspossiblemissions.Italso
wantstoimprovetheprocessinganddistributionofaerialintelligenceamongalliesintheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization.

HodgescitedthesignificanceofgivingtheoppositionforcesusedintrainingexercisesnewskillsbasedonRussiaslatestmilitaryinitiativesin
specialtiessuchaselectronicwarfareandoffensivecyber-operations.

WevealreadygivenourOPFORthosekindsofcapabilities--cyber,EW,long-rangerocketartillerystrikessowecanstartpracticingagainstthat--
howtocamouflageagain,howtodisperse-thingsthatwehaventdoneinthelastdecade.

Still,HodgesplayeddowntheprospectofopenwarfarewithRussia.AseriouskineticsituationwithRussianforcesisunlikelyandwewantto
keepitunlikely,Hodgessaid.Thatswhatwereabout--keepingitunlikely.

EvelynFarkas,thePentagonsformertopRussiapolicyofficial,saidtheRussiansneedtoknowthatwehavecapableforcesreadytorespond
fastiftheymadeamoveonaNATOally.

DemonstrationofResolve

TheRussianswillunderstandthisisademonstrationofresolvetheallieswilltoo,buttheymaypressformore,shesaidinane-mail.Ialso
hopethatothermajorNATOcountriescontributetotheeasterndeterrenceeffort.

Hodgessaidthefirstarmoredunittoarrivenextyearforanine-monthrotationwillbethe3rdArmoredBrigadeCombatTeamofthe4thinfantry
divisionbasedatFortCarson,Kansas.Atypicalbrigadefieldsabout87tanks,138BradleyFightingVehiclesand18mobilehowitzers.

Everydayoftheyearin2017,2018and2019asfarasIcanseetherewillbeanarmoredbrigadewithallitsequipmentandallofitstroops
conductingexercises,training,Hodgessaid.Thefiscal2017requestincludes$507millionforcontinualarmoredbrigaderotations.

TheexpansionalsoincludesrotatinginacombataviationunitaftertheArmyrecentlydisbandedallbuttheheadquartersofitpreviousunit,the
12thCombatAviationBrigadethatwasstationedforyearsinGermany,Hodgessaid.

ApacheDeterrence

TohavetheApachesthereisanimportantpartofthedeterrence,Hodgessaid.

Astandardcombataviationbrigadeincludesabout2,800personnel,48AH-64Apaches,53UH-60BlackHawksand24ShadowandGrayEagle
drones.

Asmallbutsignificantinitiativecallsforspendingabout$530millionoverseveralyearstoinstall30mmcannonsonArmyStrykerinfantryvehicles
inEurope.

AfterwatchingwhattheUkrainianshavedealtwithwiththeRussians,youhavetothinkaboutifweneedadditionalfirepower--increased
lethality--todestroyRussianpersonnelcarriers,hesaid.

AStrykersnotatank,butifyougofroma20mmtoa30mmitwillenableustobealotmoreeffectiveifweeverdidhaveakineticengagement,
Hodgessaid.

TheArmyplansforGeneralDynamicsCorp.tointegrate30mmcannonsfromOrbitalATKInc.intounmannedProtectorturretsbuiltby
KongsbergGruppenASAofNorway.GeneralDynamicswillfirstbuildeighttestvehicles.

The30mmisabigdeal,JimHasik,aseniordefensefellowattheAtlanticCouncilinWashington,saidinane-mail.Ifranklyusedtodoubtthat,
butIvehadenougharmoredinfantrymentellmeotherwisebecausetheweaponincloseterraincanholdoffheavytanksbydamagingtheir
sensors,weapons,runninggear.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at5:35PM
Subject:FPIBulletin:Iran,RussiaPursueIllicitArmsSales
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca,
MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,bohdan.rn@gmail.com

FPIBulletin:Iran,RussiaPursueIllicitArms
Sales
ByFPISeniorPolicyAnalystTzviKahn

TehransplantopurchaseSukhoi-30(Su-30)fighterjetsandothermilitaryhardwarefromMoscowmarksthelatestIranianattemptto
evadeaU.N.armsembargointhewakeoftheJuly2015nuclearagreement.TheproposedsalereflectsnotonlytheIslamistregimes
hegemonicambitionsintheregion,butalsoitsconfidencethatitcanfloutitsinternationalobligationswithimpunity.TheUnitedStates
shoulddemonstrateotherwisebyvetoingthesaleattheU.N.SecurityCouncil(UNSC)andexactingmeaningfulcostsforIranian
misbehavior.

CapabilitiesoftheSu-30Fighter

IransacquisitionoftheSu-30woulddramaticallystrengthenitsantiquatedairforce,whichcurrentlylacksthecapabilitytoprevailin
virtuallyanyconventionalconflict.AsFarzinNadimioftheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicynotes,thenewfighterscould
significantlyimproveIransairdefense,aerialintercept,andmultirolelong-rangestrikecapabilityupto5,000kmwithaerialrefueling.
Tehranalsoreportedlyseekstobuyadvancedjettrainerandlightattackaircraft,transporthelicopters,mobilecoastaldefensemissile
systems,frigatesanddiesel-electricsubmarines.Thefinaldealmaytotalasmuchas$8billion.

AccordingtoStephenBryen,aformerseniorofficialattheDepartmentofDefense,thedealwillenableIrantodominateitsPersianGulf
rivals,andofferstheregimeananswertoIsraelsairpower.AnanaloguetothelatestversionsoftheF-15andtheF-18,Russian-made
Su-30smaybeeffectiveagainsttheF-22,whichremainsAmericasmostadvanced(andmostexpensive)fighter,andprobablycould
successfullychallengetheF-35provideditisequippedwiththerightlongrangemissiles,thebestradar,andtopnotchjammers.

DeeperTiesbetweenTehranandMoscow

TheSu-30purchasewouldalsobolstertherelationshipbetweenRussiaandIran,whichsharethegoalofunderminingU.S.influencein
theMiddleEast.Inmid-February,duringavisittoMoscowtonegotiatethetransaction,IranianDefenseMinisterHossein
DehghantoldRussiantelevisionthatTehranseekstoexpandmilitaryandtechnicaltieswiththeKremlin.RussianDefenseMinister
SergeiShoigusaidthevisitwillcontributetowardreinforcingfriendlyrelationsbetweenRussianandIranianarmedforces.Tehranand
Moscow,headded,arereadytocoordinatetheirapproachesonalargenumberofglobalandregionalissues.IranianForeignMinistry
SpokesmanHosseinJaberiAnsarinotedseveraldayslaterthatthetwocountrieshavethehighestlevelofpoliticalcooperationandare
keentoboosteconomicties.

Already,suchcoordinationhasexpandedonanunprecedentedscaleovertheeightmonthssincethenucleardeal,formallyknownas
theJointComprehensivePlanofAction(JCPOA).QassemSoleimani,commanderoftheelitemilitaryQudsForce,whichleadsIrans
globalterroristoperations,visitedMoscowfortalkswithRussianleadersonly10daysafterTehranandtheP5+1reachedthe
agreement.Thetrip,whichviolatedaU.N.travelban,laidthegroundworkforMoscowsmilitaryinterventioninSyriatwomonthslateron
behalfoftheAssadregime.

InNovember,Russiaannouncedthatitwouldsoonbeginthelong-awaiteddeliverytoIranoftheadvancedS-300airdefensesystem,
whichwouldmakeamilitarystrikeonIransnuclearfacilitiesfarmoredifficult.WhiletheKremlinreportedlyfrozetheweaponrys
transferinrecentdaysafteritreceivedIsraeliintelligencethatTehranhadtransferredadvancedRussian-madeweaponrytoHezbollah
withoutMoscowsapproval,theplannedsaleconstitutesapotentsymbolofresurgenttiesbetweenthetworegimes.Tehranandthe
Kremlinhadoriginallysignedacontractforthesalein2007,butMoscowcancelledthedealin2010inthefaceofU.S.pressure.In
April2015,withthefinalnuclearagreementjustoverthehorizon,Russiareinstatedthecontract.

TheAdministrationsInadequateResponse

Inthefaceofthesedevelopments,theWhiteHousehasremainedlargelyinert.U.N.SecurityCouncilResolution2231,whichfollowed
theJCPOA,mandatedafive-yearembargoonarmstransferstoIran,includingbattletanks,armouredcombatvehicles,largecaliber
artillerysystems,combataircraft,attackhelicopters,warships,[and]missilesormissilesystems.Atthesametime,theresolution
carvedoutanexceptionforsalesapprovedbytheUNSCinadvanceonacase-by-casebasis,therebygivingvetopowerovera
potentialtransactiontotheUnitedStatesoranyotherpermanentmember.AsRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovnoted,Therewas
acompromisereachedbetweenIranandWesterncolleagueswhichwesupported.Fiveyears,butduringthefiveyearsarmsdeliveries
toIranwouldbepossibleiftheyclearanotificationandverificationprocessintheU.N.SecurityCouncil.

Inthiscontext,theStateDepartmenthasacknowledgedthatanunapprovedSu-30salewouldconstituteaviolation.Nevertheless,
duringaFebruary25hearingoftheHouseForeignAffairsCommittee,SecretaryofStateJohnKerrysidesteppedadirectquestion
concerningU.S.vetoplans,statingonlythattheadministrationisveryconcerned.Wellstayintouchwithyou,headded.TheS-300
system,foritspart,isexemptfromtheembargoduetoitsclassificationasadefensivesystem.

TheObamaadministrationshesitationtoactisconsistentwithitslongstandingpassivityinthefaceofIransongoingdefianceof
internationallawsandnormssincetheJCPOA.Inessence,theWhiteHousefearsthatIranwillrespondtoanyactitperceivesas
hostilebywithdrawingfromthenuclearagreement,effectivelyenablingtheregimetousetheJCPOAasabargainingchiptodeter
meaningfulconsequencesforitsactions.AmericasvacillationattheU.N.thusnotonlysendsIranthemessagethatitcanviolatethe
armsembargowithimpunity,butalsoincentivizesTehransnoncompliancewithitsotherUNSCobligations.Notsurprisingly,
IranconductedballisticmissileteststhisweekinviolationofUNSCR2231followingtwoillicittestsinOctoberandNovember.In
January,theUnitedStatesbelatedlyimposedpinpricksanctionsinresponse,butTehranapparentlyfailedtogetthemessage.

Makingmattersworse,SecretaryKerrynotedlastAugustthattheJCPOAssnapbackmechanism,whichallowstheP5+1toreinstate
sanctionsifIranfloutsitsnuclearobligations,isnottiedtothearmsrestrictions.Itistiedtoaseparatesetofobligations,hesaid.
Sotheyarenotinmaterialbreachofthenuclearagreementforviolatingthearmspieceofit.

EndingAmericanPassivity

TochangeTehransbehavior,theUnitedStatesmustimposemeaningfulconsequencesonIranforitsembargoviolationsandotheracts
ofdefiance.ItcanbeginbyvetoinganyarmssaleattheU.N.SecurityCouncil.Itshouldalsoimposecomprehensivenewsanctionson
IransIslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorpsthekeybeneficiaryofillicitarmstransfers,thecustodianofIransballisticmissileprogram,
andthespearheadofitsregionalaggressionanddomesticrepression.Intheabsenceofsuchsteps,Iranianbelligerencewillcontinue
andrenderUNSCR2231adeadletter.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at12:58PM
Subject:OlegSentsovhurriedlymovedascallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostages::khpg.org
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

SentsovisagoodfilmmakerandagoodUkrainian.He'salsoagoodCrimeanTatar.ThatmakesthreethingsthatterrifyPutin.
ThisisyetanotherstepinthegenocideofCrimeanTatarsbyRussia,agenocidethatgoesbackatleasttwocenturies.

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1456844739

OlegSentsovhurriedlymovedascallsmountforreleaseofallUkrainianhostages
10.03.16|HalyaCoynash

printversion

Readingmuchawaitedletters(Photo:TatyanaShchur)

CrimeanfilmmakerandpoliticalprisonerOlegSentsovhasbeenmovedunexpectedlyfromtheChelyabinskSIZOor
remandprisonwherehehadbeenheldforoveraweek.TatyanaShchur,alocalhumanrightsactivist,saysthatsuch
movesdonotusuallytakeplaceattheweekend,andwondersifthehasteandsecrecywasinconnectionwithNadiya
SavchenkosdryhungerstrikeandinternationalattentiononherimprisonmentandthatofRussiasotherUkrainian
prisoners.

ItisalsogallingthatSentsovhasbeenmovedsincehewasstillgettingoverabadcoughcausedbybeingheldindamp
andovercrowdedbasementcellsinbothSamaraandChelyabinsk.Hisconditionsimprovedafterlocalhumanrights
activistslearnedofhisarrival,anduntilhissuddendisappearanceovertheweekend,hehadbeeninawarmanddrycell
withonlyoneotherperson.Hehadalsobeenvisitedbythelocalhumanrightsombudsperson,MargaritaPavlova.

ThehumanrightsactivistshadevenasaprophylacticmeasureaddedSentsovsnametotheirSafetyRegister.
Thisisalistofpeoplewhohavecomplainedabouttheadministrationtomembersofthepublicsupervisory
commissions.OneofthecommissionsmembersTatyanaShchurexplainsthatanycomplaintsimmediatelyputa
prisonerindangerofretaliation,andtheregistermeansthatthepersoniskeptunderparticularlyclosesurveillanceasa
precautionarymeasure.

TheRussianauthoritieshavenowremovedthepossibilityofsurveillance,anddoneitwithoutanypriorannouncement.
TatyanaShchurreportsthatshelearnedofhismovethroughatextmessagefromanunknowntelephone,sayingonly
thatOlegSentsovhadbeenmoved.

ItcertainlydoesappearthatMoscowistryingtoisolateUkrainianpoliticalprisoners.Sentsovwasinitiallygoingtobesent
toSiberia,nowthedestinationisYakutiaintheFarEast.Fewjournalistsarelikelytotravelthere,andevenSentsovs
lawyerswillhavedifficultyvisiting..

GennadyAfanasyevhasbeeninamaximumsecurityprisoninthefarnorthernrepublicofKomisinceshortlyafterhis
courageousretractionofalltestimonyagainstSentsovonJuly31,2015,andisbeingheldinparticularlyharshconditions.
OleksandrKolchenko,theCrimeancivicactivistsentencedto10yearsinthesamepoliticallymotivatedtrialasSentsov,
istobeheldinaChelyabinskregionprison.Concernhereisarousednotonlybythedistancefromhisfamilyandlawyer,
butalsobythedirereputationofPrisonColonyNo.6inKopeisk.

TheconditionsintheprisoncolonytowhichKolchenkohasbeensentbecamewidelyknownafterarebellionin
November2012.KommersantNewspaperwroteatthetimeabouthow500prisonershadheldatotallypeacefulstrike,
withsomeofthemclimbingontheroofwithasignreadingPeople,help!,theprisonadministrationisextorting$and
Theytortureandhumiliate.Prisonersandtheirrelativestalkofmercilessextortionandexploitationfromprisonstaff.

TheauthoritiesreactedbysendinginspecialunitsandOMONriotpolice.Relativesandfriendsoftheprisonersweretold
thatplannedexerciseswereunderway,howevertheprisonersyelledouttonotdisperseortheyllkillus.Therewas
confrontationbetweenthepeopleoutsideandtheauthorities,withdogssetonthemandviolence,resultinginonewoman
endingupinhospitalwithabrokenarm,andapregnantwomanmiscarrying.

Itseemsthattheactualprisonersrebellionended,throughtheinterventionofhumanrightsactivists,withoutviolence.
TherewasanotherrebellioninNovember2014,when11prisonersslashedtheirveinsinprotestattreatmentofanother
prisonerduringasearchundertakenbyapenitentiaryservicespecialunit(theseareoftencarriedoutwithviolence
againstprisoners).

Theprisoncolonyissupposedtobeforprisonersservingsentencesforseriousandextremelyseriouscrimes.
AccordingtoKommersant,halfwerethereformurder.Mostareveryyoung.

AndnowthereisOleksandrKolchenko,sentencedto10yearseffectivelybecauseofhisoppositiontoRussiasinvasion
andoccupationofhisnativeCrimea.

Sentsov,Kolchenko,GennadyAfanasyevandOleksyChirniyareallCrimeanswhoopposedRussiasinvasionand
annexationofCrimea.TheywereallarrestedinMay2014,andheldincommunicadoforweeksbeforebeingtakento
Russia.There,onMay30,theFSBorRussianSecurityServiceclaimedthattheyhadbeeninvolvedinaRightSector
terroristplot.Therewasnothingtoindicateanypresenceoftheultra-nationalistRightSectorinCrimea,andthenotionin
particularthatKolchenko,aleft-winganarchistwouldbepartofafar-rightmovementsplotwasludicrous.

AllareUkrainiansandwereillegallytakenfromCrimeatoRussiawiththelatterclaimingthattheyhaveautomatically
becomeRussiannationals.KolchenkohaslodgedanapplicationwiththeEuropeanCourtofHumanRightsoverthis
attempttofoistRussiancitizenshiponhim.

Therewasalmosttotalsecrecyaboutthechargesagainstthem,anditwasonlywiththetrialthatitbecameclearthat
therewasabsolutelynothingtowarrantthechargesofterrorism.TherewasnothingagainstSentsovatall,only
testimonygivenbyAfanasyevandChirniywhileheldincommunicado,withoutlawyersandunderthetotalcontrolofthe
FSB.ThecourtignoredthelackofanyevidenceandAfanasyevsclearstatementthatanytestimonyhadbeentortured
outofhim,andsentencedOlegSentsovto20years.

Kolchenkowassentencedto10years.Theonlythinghehaddonewastakepartinanactofprotestinvolvingthe
throwingofaMolotovcocktail.IndeclaringKolchenko,SentsovandAfanasyevpoliticalprisoners,theMemorialHuman
RightsCentrepointedoutthatsimilarMolotovcocktailincidentsresultedinmuchlessseveresentences.

ThereleaseofallfourmenisrequiredundertheMinskAccordsandhasbeenrepeatedlydemandedbytheParliamentary
AssemblyoftheCouncilofEurope,theEuropeanParliament,theUSStateDepartmentandothers.
Pleasewritelettersorpostcardstoallthemen,andremindpoliticiansinyourcountryoftheircase.

IfyoucanwriteinRussian,do,butavoidanydiscussionofthecaseorpolitics.Ifnot,thefollowingwouldbefine(cutand
pastethewordsinRussian,andthesamebelowwiththeaddresses)

,,.

.!

Hello,Iwishyougoodhealth,courageandpatienceandhopethatyouwillsoonbereleased.Youarenotforgotten.[The
lastwordislikehanginthere)

WedonothaveaddressesyetforOlegSentsovandOleksyChirniy,butyoucansendyourlettersto
post.rozuznik[at]gmail.com,acivicinitiativehelpingtogetmailtoRussian-heldpoliticalprisonersTheywilldealwith
writingtheenvelopeandsendingiton.Justcutandpastethenamesasgivenbelow(theyearofbirthaftertheirnameis
requiredbytheprisonservice),YoucandothesameforOleksandrKolchenkoandGennadyAfanasyev,ifyouprefer,but
thereareup-to-dateaddresses.

OleksandrKolchenko

,1989..post.rozuznik[at]gmail.com

OR

456612,.,,.,20.,
,1989..

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at5:25PM
Subject:SavchenkoList&SavchenkoSanctions
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,MykolaHryckowian
<mykcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca

SAVCHENKOLIST:personsinvolvedinpersecutionofN.Savchenko
(update)
13.04.2015
Author:AndriyOsavoliyk

RUPLUK

TheOpenDialogFoundationcallsfortheimpositionofpersonalsanctionsagainstpersonsresponsibleforthekidnapping,arrest
andimprisonmentofUkrainesPACEdelegate,peoplesdeputyoftheVerkhovnaRadaofUkraine,UkrainiancitizenNadiya
Savchenko.

Savchenko,aUkrainianservicewoman,volunteeredtoparticipateintheanti-terroristoperationintheeastof
Ukraine.Shewaskidnappedbyterroristsoftheso-calledLuhanskPeoplesRepublic(LNR)andtakentothe
RussianFederation.SheisbeingfalselyaccusedofinvolvementinthekillingofRussianjournalistsintheATO
zoneandisbeingkeptindetentionontheterritoryoftheRussianFederation.

WeareconvincedthatafailuretopunishtheaccomplicesinthecaseofSavchenkoskidnappingandillegal
detentionwouldconstituteadangerousprecedentininternationallaw.

GiventhattheRussianFederation:
isamemberoftheUnitedNationsOrganisation,OrganisationonSecurityandCooperationinEurope,CouncilofEurope,
andInternationalMonetaryFund
hasratifiedtheConventionagainstTortureandOtherCruel,InhumanorDegradingTreatmentorPunishment,International
CovenantonCivilandPoliticalRights,andUnitedNationsConventionagainstCorruption
isboundbylegalcommitments,laiddownintheEuropeanConventiononHumanRights,

Weappealto

PetroPoroshenko,PresidentofUkraine
ArseniiYatseniuk,Prime-MinisterofUkraine
MembersoftheVerkhovnaRadaofUkraine
BanKi-moon,UnitedNationsSecretaryGeneral
AnneBrasseur,PresidentofPACE
IlkkaKanerva,PresidentofOSCEPA
HughBayley,PresidentofNATOPA
DonaldTusk,PresidentoftheEuropeanCouncil
Jean-ClaudeJuncker,PresidentoftheEuropeanCommission
FedericaMogherini,HighRepresentativeoftheUnionforForeignAffairsandSecurityPolicy
MartinSchulz,PresidentoftheEuropeanParliament
BarackObama,PresidentoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica
MembersofPACE
MembersofOSCEPA
MembersofNATOPA
MembersoftheEuropeanParliament
Europeangovernments.

Witharequestto

Restrictentrytosignatorycountries
Blockaccesstobankaccountsandseizepropertyincountriesinvolved
Assistintheobjectiveinvestigationinto,andproperpunishmentof,thoseresponsibleforthekidnapping,arrestand
imprisonmentofNadiyaSavchenko

Forthoselistedbelow,involvedintheSavchenkocase:

1. PersonsresponsibleforthepoliticaldecisiontokidnapNadiyaSavchenko,transporthertotheterritoryofRussia,detain
herunlawfullyandfabricatechargesagainstherpersonsresponsibleforlegitimisingtheactionsofRussiatowardsNadiya
Savchenkointheeyesoftheinternationalcommunity
2. Personsresponsibleforfabricationofevidenceduringthepre-trialinvestigationofNadiyaSavchenkoscase
3. PersonsresponsibleforpresentingfabricatedevidenceagainstNadiyaSavchenkoduringthecourtproceedingspersons
whotookdecisionsonthelegalityofsaidevidenceandtheextensionofSavchenkosdetainmentperiodotherimmediate
executorsoftheunlawfuldecisions.

DownloadtheSAVCHENKOLISThttp://en.odfoundation.eu/i/fmfiles/pdf/13-04-2015-odf-savchenko-list-
redaction-en_1.pdf?download

DownloadtheSAVCHENKOLIST
519kB

Moreonthistopic:Ukraine,humanrights,Putin,Russia,sanctions,Savchenko,SavchenkoList

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at3:14PM
Subject:Yatseniuk&JareskospeakupandcleartheairforWesternmedia[ED:Someonehadtoslow
theRU/DEZinducedhype]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

UkrainePMchallengespresidenttobackmeorsackme
FT/NeilBuckleyandRomanOlearchykinKiev

UkrainesprimeministerArsenyYatseniukhaschallengedpresidentPetroPoroshenkotobackmeorsackme,sayingdecisive
actionistheonlywayoutofthecountrysmonthlongpoliticalcrisisthatriskstriggeringearlyelectionsandderailingpro
westernreforms.

InaninterviewwiththeFinancialTimes,MrYatseniukcomplainedbitterlyofconstantattacksfromagoverningcoalitionthat
includes136MPsfromthepresidentsparty,sayingitwasuncomfortable[tobe]stabbedintheback.

More

ONTHISTOPIC

Ukrainefinanceministeraimsfortoppost

Ukrainecoalitionhangsbyathread

Kievsurvivesnoconfidencevote

FTViewUkraineslastchancetosecurefreedom

INEUROPE

Italybankingcleanupfacesmergerdelay

Cyprusthreatenstoscupperrefugeepact

Popecracksdownoncanonisationprocess

PolishPMdefiesconstitutionalcourt

Signupnow

Parliament,henoted,hadfailedtopass60percentofgovernmentbills.ButMrYatseniukdefendedhisrecord,insisting
Ukrainewasanentirelydifferentcountryfrom2014,whenarevolutionoustedproRussianpresidentViktorYanukovich.

Hiscommentscameamidintensebackroompoliticalmanoeuvring,withtheUSbornfinanceministerNatalieJareskoandthe
parliamentspeakerVolodymyrGroysmansaidbypoliticalinsiderstohavebeensoundedoutoverthepremiersjob.

Ifthepresidentdoesntwanttoworkwithme,andifhisfactionstronglyopposethisgovernmentandthisprimeminister...I
kindlyrequestwithallduerespecttotaketheresponsibilitytoformthegovernment,topresenttheprogrammeofthenew
governmenttotheUkrainianpeople,andtoformanewcoalition,MrYatseniuksaid.

Takeitorleaveit,backmeorsackme.

Ukrainesdeepestpoliticalcrisissincethe2014revolutionwastriggeredbylastmonthsresignationoftheeconomyminister
AivarasAbromavicius,whosaidithadbecomeimpossibletoimplementreforms.

MrYatseniuksgovernmentsurvivedanoconfidencemotioninparliament.Butheadmittedhisgovernmenthadbeen
weakenedaftersomecoalitionMPssupportedthevoteandtwoofitsfiveconstituentpartieswithdrew.

PoliticaluncertaintyrisksderailinginternationalfinancialsupportforUkraineamidcontinuedattemptsbyRussiatodestabilise
itandpullitbackintoMoscowssphereofinfluence.

TheIMFhasdelayeddisbursementofthenexttrancheofa$17.5bnaidpackageuntilitisclearthegovernmentcancontinue
pushingthroughstructuralreforms.OneseniorofficialwarnedUkrainesfinancialreserveswouldlastonlysixtoeightmonths
withoutIMFsupport.

SomepoliticalcommentatorsdrawparallelswiththeriftbetweenpresidentViktorYushchenkoandpremierYuliaTymoshenko
thatultimatelyunderminedUkraines2004prodemocracyOrangerevolution.

MrYatseniuksaidhehadalwaystriedtoavoidthenotorious2005scenario.Iwillnevercomplainaboutmypresident...I
willbitemyliptotheend.Buttheendistoofar,hequipped.

UkrainesUSbornfinanceministerintalksontoppost

TheprimeministerdidnotdisputereportsthatMsJareskoandothershadbeenintalksoverthetopjob,butdeclinedto
commentfurther.

Mygovernmentsurvivedaconfidencevote,hesaid.Iamabsolutelyopenforanytypeofdiscussion.But...any
governmentneedstogetthesupportofthehouse,hesaid.

PeoplefamiliarwiththesituationtoldtheFTthisweekthatrepresentativesofMrPoroshenkoandMrYatseniuks
parliamentaryfactionshadofferedtobackMsJareskointhepremiersjob,buttalksstalled.

Onepoliticalinsidersuggestedthepremiermightinitiallyhavesupportedsuchascenarioasawayoutofthecrisis,butlater
concludedthefinanceministerlackedparliamentarybackingtobeaneffectivelongtermpremier.

MrYatseniuksaidthecountryfacedthreescenariosareshuffledgovernmentheadedbyhim,anewgovernmentorsnap
elections.Hewasreadywithallhonourtohandovertheofficeoftheprimeministertothestrongestgovernment,the
strongestcoalition,andthebestprogramme.

Someofhisformerpoliticalalliesappearedtofavourearlypolls,headded,butthiswasmisguided.

Afteranysnapparliamentaryelections,trustme,theywillneverbeabletoformanyproreformistandprowestern
government,headded,sayinganynewcoalitionwouldcomprise10differentpartieswithentirelydifferentideologies.

Thepremierinsistedthatcorruptionallegationslevelledagainsthimandassociatesbyopponentsweregroundless.Thisis
slanderanddefamation,hesaid.

MrYatseniuksaidhehadtobeg,toplead,toattackthehousetogetparliamenttobacklegislation.Hehadpresentedone
privatisationbill15times.

Butheadded,thiscountryisentirelydifferentthanitwastwoyearsago...newpolice,newarmy,newfiscalpolicy,new
energypolicy,newsocialpolicy,newfolkssittinginthegovernment...verystrongsociety.

IhavedoneeverythingIcan,inthesecurrentcircumstances.Icandomore,butweneedtopressdownontheaccelerator.

Ukraine'sYareskosaysrumorsfuellingpoliticalcrisis

Ukraine'sFinanceMinisterNataliaYareskospeaksduringaninterviewwithReutersinKiev,Ukraine,November12,2015.

REUTERS/VALENTYNOGIRENKO

UkrainianFinanceMinisterNataliaYareskoonThursdaydeflectedquestionsaboutherchancesofbecomingprimeministerif
thegovernmentcollapsedandsaidsuchspeculationwasfanningtheflamesofthecountry'spoliticalcrisis.

YareskoistoutedasasuccessortoPrimeMinisterArsenyYatseniuk,whonarrowlysurvivedanoconfidencevoteinFebruary
butwhosepopularitywithinthecoalitionandthevotingpublichascollapsedsincetakingofficein2014.

ThecrisishasstymiedUkraine'seffortstosecuremoreaidfromitsinternationalbackers,includingtheInternationalMonetary
Fund,whichiscontingentonKievimplementingreformsandclampingdownoncorruption.

Aforeignbornformerinvestmentmanager,YareskocouldbeapopularchoicewithUkraine'sWesternallies,butitisunclear
whethershewouldhavethepoliticalmuscletopushthroughreformsanyfasterthanYatseniukcould.

"Ithinkitdoesnothelpanyofusrightnowtoengageinspeculation,frankly,"saidYareskoataninvestorconferenceinKiev,
whenquizzedaboutherpossibleroleinanewgovernment.

"Ithinkthespeculationiswhat'scausingthecrisistosomeextent.Somypreferencewouldbetofocusonreality."

WithYatseniuk'scoalitioninturmoil,UkraineandtheIMFhaveyettoagreeonanewmemorandumsettingoutKiev'sprecise
commitmentsonreforms,whichitwilldeliverinexchangeformoreaidworth$1.7billion.

EvenifUkrainesubmitsanewmemoranduminMarch,itwillhavetowaitatleastuntiltheIMFboardmeetsinApriltosecure
themoney,sheadded.

"Thememorandumisalivingdocument,"Yareskosaid."TheIMFhastoknowwhoisgoingtobeinthegovernment...asa
lenderyouwanttoknowapersonwhosigns.TheIMFwantssomeconfidencethattheprogramwillbeimplemented."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:George
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at4:19PM
Subject:EurasiaDailyMonitor---Socor|McDermott(bothgoodreads)
To:"waz2102@columbia.edu"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

INTHISISSUE
*GazpromlookstoreviveSouthStreamthroughtheTurkey-Greece-ItalyInterconnector
*RussiantopbrassaccuseWestofhybridthreatsagainstRussia

TurkeyGreeceItalyInterconnector:SouthStreamsLatestAvatar?

(PartTwo)

RussianGazprom,GreekDEPA/DESFA,andItalianEdisonproposeamodifiedversionofGazpromsSouthStreamproject,
usingtheInterconnectorTurkeyGreeceItaly(ITGIproject)forapipelinecorridortodeliverRussiangastoEurope.This
revampedversionpresupposes(likeSouthStreamsoriginalversion)theconstructionofapipelinefromRussiaacrosstheBlack
SeatoBulgaria,oralternativelytoTurkey(TurkishStream),eitherofthemtofeedintotheITGI(seeEDM,March3,4).

ITGIsoverlandandseabedsections,ontheterritoriesofGreeceandItaly,broadlycorrespondwithSouthStreamsplanned
westboundbranch.TheITGI,ajointventureofItalianEdisonandGreekDEPA/DESFA,couldopenthewayforareinvented
SouthStreamunderthisorthatname,pittingthisprojectagainsttheEuropeanUnionbackedSouthernGasCorridor.Ineffect,
GazpromandtheITGIprojectownerswouldberacingagainsttheEUsproject,alongthesamerouteandtothesamemarket
destination.

Anexaminationoftheinterests,goals,andcapabilitiesofthecompaniesandcountriesinvolvedsuggeststhatGazpromsandits
newallieschancestowinthisracearescant.SouthStreamandITGIaretwosuspendedprojects,bothlookingforanother
chancethroughmutualsynergies.

Moscowssalientinterestsaretwofold.First,toobstructtheEU-backedSouthernCorridorbyfosteringmisleadingperceptions
thatGazprom(intandemwithITGI)mightpreemptthatrouteandthatmarket.Andsecond,tobypassUkrainethroughapipeline
fromRussiaviatheBlackSeatotheBalkansandwesternTurkey.GiventhemodestsizeofBalkancountriesgasmarkets,
however,aBlackSeabypasspipelinecouldnotevenhypotheticallybejustifiedunlessgasvolumesdestinedforItalythroughthe
ITGIareadded.ThusthetwoRussiangoalsareinterrelatedandtheITGIisseen(byitsownersandbyGazprom)asan
opportunitytoconsideragainaRussianpipelineacrosstheBlackSeatoBulgariaorTurkey.

TheKremlinsuspendedSouthStreaminDecember2014,followingtheexitofBulgariaanindispensablelinchpinfromthis
project(seebelow).Lastyear,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinofferedtoshifttherouteacrosstheBlackSeatowardTurkey
rebrandingthewould-bepipelineasTurkishStreamandonwardashortdistancetotheTurkey-Greeceborder,theretofeedinto
theITGI.InDecember2015,however,thepoliticalcrisisbetweenRussiaandTurkeyoverthewarinSyriapromptedPutinto
suspendhisTurkishStreamproposalalso,untilfurthernotice.

Gazpromincurredseriousfinanciallossesin2015,asaresultofSouthStreamssuspension.Thoselosses(compoundingrevenue
shortfallsfromthelowinternationalpricesofgas)affectGazpromscapacitytofinanceanyfurtherpipelineprojectsintheBlack
Seaand/ortheITGIcorridor.Gazpromhaspaidapproximately$1billiontoItalianENI,GermanWintershall,andlectricitde
Francefortheirrespectivestakes(addingupto50percentofthetotalshares)inSouthStreamTransport,theprojectcompanyin
chargeofbuildingthatpipelineacrosstheBlackSea.Furthermore,Gazpromisbeingsuedforalmost$1billionbyItalianSaipem,
amajorsubcontractor,forworkalreadyperformedonSouthStreamsmaritimesection.AndaccordingtoMikhailKorchemkins
estimates,Gazpromhasspent$27billionto$30billiononpipelines,fromSiberiatotheBlackSea,dedicatedtofeedingSouth
Stream,aswellaspreliminaryworkonSouthStreamsoverlandsectionsinEurope(RossbusinessconsultingRBK,February
24).

Meanwhile,RussiaprioritizesitsNordStreamTwoproject,intermsofbothfinancingandplannedgasvolumeallocations.Inthis
situation,GazpromisunlikelytoreviveSouthStreamorTurkishStreamanytimesoon.ThisalsomeansthatRussiadoesnothave
realisticoptionstobypassUkraineviatheBlackSea.Thus,RussiawillhavetocontinueusingUkrainesgastransitsysteminorder
tosupplyRomania,Bulgaria,Macedonia,GreeceandTurkeyswesternprovinceswithRussiangas.Gazprommayhavetoawaita
substantialrecoveryofgaspricesbeforeproceedingwithnewpipelineconstructionintheBlackSeaandtheBalkans.

BulgariawasasinequanontransitcountryforSouthStreambyvirtueofgeography.Bulgaria,however,droppedoutfromSouth
Streamin2014,citingtheEuropeanUnionslegislationoncompetitionandtheenergymarket.TheBulgariangovernmentclingsto
somehopesforaBulgarianStreamgastransitpipeline(tobeowned,however,fullybyBulgaria)andaBalkangasstorageand
regionaldistributionhubnearVarnaforRussian,Azerbaijaniand,eventually,Turkmenistanigas(NaturalGasEurope,February
29).Butthosearedistantvisions.

Morepalpably,BulgariasinterestswillbeservedbytheconstructionoftheInterconnectorsGreeceBulgariaandTurkey
Bulgaria.BothprojectshavebeendeclaredintegralpartsoftheEU-plannedSouthernGasCorridortoEuropeattherecenthigh-
levelmeetinginBaku(Trend,March1).TheGreeceBulgariaInterconnectorbranchesofffromtheITGIatitsGreekinception
point,Komotini,andisplannedtobefedwithgasvolumesfromAzerbaijan.

--VladimirSocor

GerasimovCallsforNewStrategytoCounterColorRevolution

Russiastopbrasshascalledonleadingmilitarytheoristsandspecialistsaswellasthedefenseindustryandthegovernmentto
jointlydevelopasoftpowerstrategytocounterthepotentialthreatfromcolorrevolutions.Theannualgeneralmeetingofthe
AcademyofMilitarySciences(AkademiyaVoyennykhNaukAVN),onFebruary27,sawanumberofinter-linked
presentationsaddressingthenatureofmodernwarfareandtheroleofmilitaryscienceinassessingsuchissues,aswellasakeynote
speechbythechiefoftheGeneralStaff,Army-GeneralValeryGerasimov.ExpertssupportedGerasimovsconclusionthatinorder
tocounterthepossiblesecuritythreatposedbycolorrevolution,Russiamustformanddeveloparangeofsoftpower
instruments.ItwasmadeclearthatacoupinthecolorrevolutionmodelisregardedbyMoscowasaformofhybridwarfare
conductedbyforeignpowersagainstRussiasinterests(RIANovosti,March1).

ColorrevolutionswerecharacterizedasanessentialcomponentinWesternhybridwarfareapproaches,withtheunderlying
messageduringtheconferencebeingthatMoscowmustnowremedythesethreatsbyformingnewanti-hybridcapabilitiesofits
own.GerasimovsspeechhasbroughtfullcirclethediscussiontriggeredbyhiscontroversialarticleinVoyennoPromyshlennyy
KuryerinFebruary2013Gerasimovsassessmentofmoderntrendsinwarfarewassooninterpretedasevidenceoftheexistence
ofaRussianconceptanddoctrinepertainingtohybridwarfare,withmanyrushingtojudgementbasedontheexampleinUkraine
(Kommersant,March1VoyennoPromyshlennyyKuryer,February27,2013).

Amongthethemescoveredbyspeakerswerereformingthemilitary-industrialcomplex,weaponsprocurement,andtheformation
ofprivatemilitarycompanies.Centralelementsinthemilitarytheoreticalframeworkthatformedthebackdroptothepresentations,
especiallyGerasimovsassessments,arefoundintheworkofthecountrysleadingmilitarytheoristArmy-GeneralMakhmut
Gareev,thepresidentoftheAVN.Indeed,inrecentyearsGareevhaswalkedalinebetweentraditionalistsandmodernizersinhis
articlesandspeeches,particularlycallingfornewideasandapproachestohowRussiaconfrontsthechallengesofmodernwarfare.
InhiswrittenanalysispublishedpriortoEuroMaidan,hewarnedthatacolorrevolutioncouldposeadirectthreattoRussian
security(VoyennoPromyshlennyyKuryer,February24,2016December4,2013).

Itisinthiscontext,andfollowingRussiasmilitaryexperiencesinUkraineandSyria,thatGerasimovchosetheAVNtoissuehis
calltoactionagainstcolorrevolutions.Reportedly,Gareevalsoaddressedtheacademyontheresultsofitsactivitiesin2015and
setoutsometasksfortheyearahead.TheAVNconsistsof13academicdepartmentswith21regionalbranches.Ithas98
honorarymembersand2,783professors.Amongtheprofessors,72percentareretiredmilitaryofficersorreservistsand28
percentoftheAVNsmilitaryscientistsarecurrentmembersoftheArmedForces(Kommersant,March1).

Gerasimovframedhiscommentsbynotingthefirmlyestablishedforeignhigh-techwarfareconceptaimedatachievingitsgoals
byremotenon-contactimpactuponenemyforces,usinghigh-precisionandlong-rangesystemsoperatingintheair,seaand
space.Thistrend,accordingtoGerasimov,wasaprominentthemeinthedevelopmentoftheworldsleadingmilitariesinrecent
years,andisnowreflectedinRussiandefenseplanningto2020,includingthePlanofDefenseapprovedbyPresidentPutinand
putintoeffectatthebeginningof2016.HecontinuedbynotingthatRussiafacesabroadrangeofmulti-vectorthreats,especially
linkedtotheuseofsoftpower:political,diplomatic,economic,informational,cybernetic,psychologicalandothernon-military
means.ThemainresultofRussianmilitaryscienceshouldbepractical,leadingthewayinformulatingnewideasandthinkingon
theseissues.Gerasimovelaboratedonthenatureofmilitarythreats,Russiascomplexsecurityenvironment,changesinthenature
ofcombat,aswellasthemeansandmethodsofusingmilitaryforce.Inaddition,heraisedquestionsaboutthefutureprioritiesfor
theArmedForces,includingmodernizationaswellasdevelopingthestrategicrocketforcesandsystemofairandspacedefense
(VoyennoPromyshlennyyKuryer,March8KrasnayaZvezda,February28).

TurningtothethreatposedtoRussiassecurityfromthephenomenonofcolorrevolutions,Gerasimovlinkedthethemesof
globalization,theweakeningofnationalborders,aswellastheemergenceofthefieldofinformationasafundamentalcomponent
inmodernwarfare.Gerasimovbelievesthatthisshiftsthefocustoanintegratedapplicationofpolitical,economic,andinformation
activitiesandothernon-militarymeasuresrelyingonmilitaryforce.Lookingoutoninternationalapproachestomodernwarfare,
theGeneralStaffseeshybridapproachesreadilybeingusedanddevelopedbyotherpowers,which,inturn,meansRussianeeds
toplaycatchup.Inhisview,asoftpowerapproachisneededtocombatcolorrevolutionsusingarangeofmeanspartlyalready
presentintheForeignPolicyConceptbutnecessitatingrefinement.GerasimovwantstheAVNtofurtherstudytrendsinmodern
warfareandtotakeintoaccountlessonslearnedfromtheGreatPatrioticWar,Afghanistanandanti-piracymissions,aswellas
SyriaandCrimea(thoughRussianforcesmetwithlittleresistanceinthelatter).Healsocombinedhiscallforsoftpowercounter
measuresagainstcolorrevolutionswithgreatereffortstostudyoffenseanddefenseinouterspaceandintheinformationspace
(VoyennoPromyshlennyyKuryer,March8KrasnayaZvezda,February28).

ByincludingtheGreatPatrioticWarasanadditionalareademandingstudytostrengthenRussiasapproachestofuturewarfare,
GerasimovwasnotsimplypayinglipservicetotheAVNandtheesteemedroleofGareevwhoseviewswerelargelyshapedby
hisexperienceofthewar.Indeed,thecollectivememoryofJune1941(dateofNaziGermanysinvasionoftheSovietUnion),
distilledeventodayintotheeducationalcultureofthetopbrass,explainstheRussiansecurityelitespredisposedfearofasudden,
surpriseattackmostrecentlyembodiedbytheUnitedStatesPromptGlobalStrikeandmissiledefenseplans,whichdrive
aspectsofMoscowsnuclearmodernization(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,February26).

GerasimovsaddresstotheAVNconfirmsthenon-existenceofaRussianhybriddoctrine,orapproachtowarfareperse.Rather,
accordingtohispublicremarks,GerasimovseestheneedtorespondtotheUnitedStatesandtheNorthAtlanticTreaty
Organization(NATO),whichheclaimsareformingsuchcapabilities(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,February28).

--RogerMcDermott

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Thu,Mar10,2016at11:48AM
Subject:Media:MadsenVersusBlank[ED:LookataCompare/ContrastMemoPutin'sOwnUS'UsefulIdiot'Mikey
AverkoHasSentAround]
To:

Twoveryrecentlyreleasedextremesonwhat'sinfluencingthecoverageofRussiarelatedmattersintheWest:

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/03/08/the-need-for-cso-teams-in-russia-serbia-china-and-
elsewhere.html

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-does-putin-surprise-us-again-and-again

Ofthetwo,StephenBlankisconsiderablylessaccurate,inadditiontonotprovidingasmuchspecificsasWayne
Madsen.Thatsaid,Sorosisn'tsolelybehindthehypocriticallynegativeandinaccuratecoverageofRussia.

ED:READWAYNEMADSEN[UNREPENTANTSTALINIST]SHOULDWECALLTHEFOLLOWING"HATE
SPEECH"....)))...??]

WAYNEMADSEN|08.03.2016|OPINION

TheNeedforCSOTeamsinRussia,Serbia,China,and
Elsewhere

Whenasinglemulti-billionairecontrolsnotonlyAmericasRadioFreeEurope/RadioFreeAsia/RadioLiberty
operationsinMunichandPragueandhevirtuallyownsandoperatessuchnon-profitnon-governmental
organizationslikeHumanRightsWatchandAmnestyInternational,nationalgovernmentstargetedbysucha
menaceshouldtakenoticeandrespondaggressively.GeorgeSoroswillcontinuetodominatetheforeignpolicyof
aHillaryClintonadministration.Sorosrecentlydonated$8milliontoboostherpresidentialcampaign.

Nation-statesthathavebeenandwillcontinuetobetargetedbySorosssoftpower,whichhasalwaysreceived
morethanawinkandanodfromtheUSCentralIntelligenceAgency,whichbequeathedtohimoperationsofthe
ColdWarpropagandaradiostationsaftertheendoftheColdWar,shouldestablishCounter-SorosOperations
teams,orCSOs,withinforeignministriesorinformationservicestokeeptrackofSorosshugepropaganda
empireanditsowndestabilizationoperations.

Manynationshaveinformationministriesthatservetodisseminatetheirownviewsonvarioussubjectsandevents
thegenerallyacceptedtermbeingpropaganda.However,Sorossoperationsaresointricatelywovenintothe
fabricofsomanynationalgovernments,internationalorganizations,NGOs,politicalparties,universities,media
outlets,andlaborandsocialmovements,itactuallytakesafull-timeefforttotracktheseentitiesandtheiractivities.
SorosoperativeshaveevenpenetratedWikipediainitsEnglishandvariousotherlanguageformatstospread
disinformationandone-sidedpropaganda.

Thereisclearlyarequirementforarestrictedaccessinteractivedatabasefornationalgovernmentsagreeingto
contributeintelligenceonSorosandallhisrelatedandlinkedactivitiestoshareinitsfruits.Thereislittledoubtthat
SorostakesmuchofhismarchingordersfromtheUSCentralIntelligenceAgencywithwhichhehasenjoyeda
longassociationandtheinfluenceoperationselementsoftheUSStateDepartmentandNationalSecurity
Council.AllofSorossinterwovenlinksthroughhisvariedbusiness,intelligence,andsocialnetworkswouldbea
mainfocusofaCounter-SorosOperation,whetheranationalundertakingoracooperativemeasuretakenby
interestedgovernments.

TheleakedUSStateDepartmentclassifiedcablesprovidesexamplesofhowSorossoperationsarepartand
parceloftheUSforeignpolicyandintelligenceapparatuses.ManyareunawarethatbeforeGeorgeSoros
becamesoinvolvedwithcraftingUSforeignpolicy,hisolderbrotherPaulSoroswasinvolvedinfrontingforport
facilityprojectsaroundtheworldthatwereclearlyintheinterestofseniorUSofficials,mostnotably,Henry
Kissinger.KissingerservedasSecretaryofStateandNationalSecurityAdviser,andforatimeheldbothposts
simultaneously,duringtheRichardNixonandGeraldFordadministrations.

DeclassifiedUSStateDepartmentcablesshowthatPaulSorosscompany,SorosAssociatesConsulting
Engineers,wasnegotiatinganewinternationalairportdealAeroIslawiththeArgentinegovernmentonAugust
9,1974,thedayNixonresignedfromofficeandwhenKissingertookfullcommandofAmericanintelligence
operationsandforeignpolicy.AlthoughArgentinaspresidentwasIsabelPeron,theciviliansuccessortothe
previousmilitaryjuntaregime,themilitarycomplexstillwieldedtremendouscontroloverthenationsaffairs,
includingcontrolofseaportoperations.

In1976,theStateDepartment,stillcommandedbyKissinger,helpedarrangeadealforPaulSorostobidona
Libyanportproject.AsKissingerstatedinacabletotheUSembassyinTripoli,NoUScompanyhaswonmajor
primecontractoutsideofLibya'shydrocarbonsectorsince1969.Itwasin1969thatLibyanleaderMuammar
GaddafioverthrewthecorruptKingandestablishedthepeoplesrepublic.Ironically,GeorgeSoroswas
involvedinfosteringtheArabSpringrevolutionthatultimatelyledtoGaddafi'soverthrowandassassination,
celebratedbyMrsClintonwiththeresponse:Wecame,wesaw,hedied,followedbyhertrademarkcackling
andsociopathiclaughter.

AnyCounter-SorosOperationmusttakeintoaccountthecloselinksbetweenSorossOpenSociety
Institute/Foundationandquasi-officialentitiesandNGOs,thosebasedintheUnitedStatesandabroad.Soros
operationsrepresentamulti-headedhydrawithtentaclesextendingintotheUnitedNations,theEuropeanUnion,
theWorldBankandtheInternationalMonetaryFund,theInternationalCriminalCourt,theMunichSecurityand
Bilderbergconferences,RefugeesInternationaltheNewSchoolforSocialResearchinNewYorktheWorld
EconomicForumatDavosandprivatefoundationsliketheFord,Rockefeller,andCarnegieFoundationsandthe
KonradAdenauerStiftunginGermanyandeventheEurovisioncontest.

SorosoperationsaroundtheworldmustcomeunderevencloserscrutinyifMrsClintoniselectedthenextUS
president.AsofFebruary2016,Soros donated$6milliontoClintonssuper-PoliticalActionCommittee(Super
PAC)calledPrioritiesUSAAction.UnderaClintonadministration,Soroswillyieldevengreaterpowerover
AmericanforeignpolicythanhedidduringtheBarackObamaadministration.

SoroscloselycoordinateshisdestabilizationeffortswiththeUSAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)
andtheNationalEndowmentforDemocracy(NED),bothciphersfortheCIA.Sorospretendstocombattheright-
wingandconservativeelementsaroundtheworldbyfinancingleftistandsocialdemocraticpartiesand
movements.Thismerelyacleversmokescreenwhichisengineerednottopromotetheleftbuttocontrolit.The
long-servingpresidentoftheCIA-linkedNED,CarlGershman,beganhisanti-Communistactivitiesonbehalfof
theCIAastheexecutivedirectorforSocialDemocratsUSA(SDUSA),anostensiblyleft-of-centerparty.However,
SDUSAwasafrontfortheCIAtocontrolmoderateleftistsinordertoderailtheinfluenceofMarxistsand
CommunistsintheDemocraticPartyandamongthelaborunions.ThesameSorostacticwasusedtopromote
theDemocraticLeadershipCouncil(DLC)thatendorsedpro-businessandneo-conservativeandneo-liberal
DemocraticpoliticianslikeBillandHillaryClintonattheexpenseofpro-laborandanti-WallStreetDemocratic
politicians.Today,thisSoroscontrivanceisknownastheThirdWay.

Soroshasmanagedtoinfiltrateandneutralizeanumberofleftistpoliticalpartiesaroundtheworldandparticularly
thoseinEuropethathavequestionedtheframeworkandfutureoftheEuropeanUnion.ThegoverningSYRIZA
partyofGreece,PodemosinSpain,andFiveStarinItalyhaveallbeeninfiltratedbySorosoperatives,nowknown
asSorosites(akintoparasites),who,liketheircollegialTrotskyistcounterpartsfromthelastcentury,areonly
interestedincircumventingleftistmovementsnotadvancingtheirbasicdoctrines.SYRIZA,whichranonaplatform
ofrejectingEU-dictatedausteritymeasures,quicklydecidedtowarmlyembracethem.PodemosinSpainwilldo
thesameifitjoinsafuturegovernment.Soros,likeafatalcancer,infiltratesabodypolitic,infectsit,andultimately
killsit.

ThemusclebehindtheBulldozerRevolutionthatoverthrewSerbianpresidentSlobodanMilosevic,OTPOR!and
theCenterforAppliedNonviolentActionandStrategies(CANVAS),aswellastheirleaderSrdjaPopovic,aso-
calledpro-democracyagitator,wereallunmaskedasUSintelligenceassets.Theirtextbookthemedrevolution
operationswerelaterfullyutilizedonthestreetsofTbilisi,Kiev,Chisinau,Moscow,Skopje,Bucharest,Sofia,
Budapest,Podgorica,andfartherafieldinDamascus,Benghazi,Tunis,Cairo,Bangkok,Beirut,HongKong,
Caracas,Quito,andTehran.

TocombatSorosInternationalanditsAmericanandWesternEuropeanandIsraelisponsors,theansweristo
createunitsthatwill1)identifythethreats2)employactivemeasures,includingraidsonSoros-financedoffices
andarrestsoftroublemakingringleaders3)widelypublicizethenatureoftheSorosoperationsandthe
organizationsandindividualswhoarebehindthem4)permanentlyneutralizethethreatsundertheguiseof
nationalsecurity,anti-racketeeringandanti-moneylaunderinglawscurrentlyonthebooks,andconspiracyto
commitstreetviolence.Anymeasuresthatarelessdauntingwillturnouttobequiteuseless.

From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/05/201610:20:16AM
To: JohnP.Williams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: TASS:World-ThomasGraham:US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera

ThomasGraham:US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera

InearlyFebruary,oneoftheleadingUSexpertsonRussia,ThomasGraham,visitedMoscow.Grahamusedto
beSpecialAssistanttothePresidentandSeniorDirectorforRussiaontheNationalSecurityCouncilstafffrom
2004to2007andDirectorforRussianAffairsonthatstafffrom2002to2004.Now,he'sisamanagingdirector
atKissingerAssociates,aswellasoneoftheco-DirectorsoftheRussianStudiesProjectatYale.Onhisreturnto
theUnitedState,ThomasGrahamwasinterviewedbyTASS.

-RussianexpertssaythebreachinrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUSdidnotreallyhappenbecauseof
Ukrainebuthadothercauses(beginningwithMagnitsky,Snowden,etc).IfnotUkraine,itwouldhavebeen
somethingelse,theysay.Theyalsothinkthebreachislikelytobelong-lastinganditmostprobablywon'tend
withthechangeofadministrationinDC.Doyouagreewiththat?

-Difficultrelationswereinevitable,ifonlybecausetheUnitedStatesandRussiaespouseradicallydifferentviewsofworld
order.Weinterpretdifferentlykeyprinciplessuchassovereignty,territorialintegrity,andself-determinationwedifferover
whatconstitutesthelegitimateuseofforcewedisagreeaboutthelegitimacyofspheresofinfluenceand,ofcourse,we
countdifferentnumbersofpolesofpowerintheworldtoday.Twocountrieswithsuchprofounddifferencescanco-exist,
andevencooperateinamultipolarworld,buttheycanneverbestrategicpartners,asmanyinbothcountrieshadhoped
attheendoftheColdWar.Toughcompetitionwasandremainsinevitableallthatwasmissingintheearlypost-ColdWar
periodwasaRussiastrongenoughtodefenditsinterests.ThatsituationchangedafterPutinrosetopower.

Abreachinrelations,atotalbreakdownincommunication,wasnotinevitable,however.Thatwasaconsequenceofthe
waybothMoscowandWashingtonreactedtotheUkrainecrisis.Eachsideblamestheotherforthebreachneitherside
ispreparedtotaketheinitiativeinrestoringties.Simplysaying,asMoscowdoes,thatitispreparedfordialogueif
Washingtonis,isnotthesameastakingstepstoencouragetheemergenceofdialogue.Wedidnotstartthisisnotan
invitationtorestorerelations.Infact,WashingtonisalsoreadytoendthebreachifonlyMoscowbacksdownonall
theissues-onCrimeaandEasternUkraine,inparticular-thatlieatthecoreofthecurrenttension.Mutatismutandis,
thatisMoscowspositiontoo.

Iftherewasacriticalturningpointinpost-SovietUS-RussianrelationsIwoulddateittotheendof2004.Itcameright
afterthepeakingoodrelationshadbeenreached.Althoughitwasnotrecognizedatthetime,themostpromisingperiod
forrelationscanbedatedroughlyfromtheSeptember2001terroristattacksagainsttheUnitedStatesuntilthemiddleof
thefallof2002,whensharpdifferencesoverhowtodealwithIraqandSaddamHusseinemerged.Thehighpointwas
markedbytheJointDeclarationthatPresidentsPutinandBushissuedinMay2002,whichestablishedaframeworkfor
strategicpartnershipbetweenequalsbasedonahardcalculationofnationalinterest.

Intoneandsubstance,theDeclarationpartedwayswiththejointstatementsissuedearlierbyClintonandYeltsinand
subsequentlybyObamaandMedvedev.TheClintonAdministrationwasdeterminedtotransformRussiaintoafree-
marketdemocracyalongAmericanlines,and,ifittalkedofpartnership,Russiawasdistinctlythejuniorpartner.The
ObamaAdministrationwasonlywillingtoworkwithRussiaonanarrowrangeofissuesinwhichRussianparticipation
wasindispensable,primarilyintheareathestrategicarmscontrols,consistentwithObamasinitialsignaturegoalof
creatingaworldwithoutnuclearweapons.InboththeClintonandObamaAdministrationstherewerelargebilateral
commissions(Gore-ChernomyrdinandtheBilateralPresidentialCommission)thatcreatedanillusionofbroader
partnership,buttheconcreteresultinbothcaseswereunderwhelming.

Tobesure,therewerethoseintheBushAdministration-largelyneocons-whodidnotpursuethegoalofstrategic
partnershipingoodfaith,astherewereretrogradeforcesontheRussianside,especiallyinthepowerministries,who
fearedtheconsequencesofagenuinestrategicpartnershipandworkedtothwartitsrealization.Buttheimportantpointis
thatthetwoPresidentssharedtheambitiontocreatesuchapartnership.Thatsharedambitionsurvivedeventhe
AmericaninterventioninIraqinspring2003.Bythefallofthatyear,vigorouseffortswerebeingmadebybothsidesto
restorethefoundationsofpartnership.

Theturningpointcameinthefallof2004,bookendedbytwoevents:theBeslantragedySeptemberandtheOrange
RevolutioninUkraineinNovember/December.ThoseeventsledPutinandtherestoftheRussianleadershiptoconclude
thattheUnitedStateswasinfactouttoweakenandcontainRussia,thatcounterterrorismanddemocracypromotion
werebothsmokescreensintendedtomaskAmericasgeopoliticaladvanceintheformerSovietspace.Bythemiddleof
2005,MoscowhaddevelopedacoherentstrategytopushbackagainstAmericaninfluencethroughoutthatregion.The
competitiontheresharpenedandpoisonedtheentirerelationship.

Atthesametime,MoscowabandonedanydesiretointegrateintoTransatlanticstructures,whichhadbeentheprimary
motivebehindWashingtonsRussiapolicy.PutindrovethatpointhomeinhisfamousremarksattheMunichSecurity
ConferenceinFebruary2007.TherefollowedtheRusso-GeorgianWarofAugust2008,inwhichMoscowforthefirst
timedemonstratedthatitwaspreparedtouseforcetoresistUSencroachments,throughNATOexpansion,intowhatit
considereditszoneofprivilegedinterests.Washingtonsawthatwarasafundamentalviolationoftherulesthathad
governedsecurityrelationsinEuropesinceatleasttheHelsinkiAccordsof1975.

Relationsneverreallyrecovered.Theresetwasabriefinterludeoflimitedachievementbroughttoadefinitiveendona
specificdate:September24,2011,whenPutinannouncedhisdeterminationtoreturntotheKremlinasPresident.
Thereafter,acascadeofeventsonlydeepenedtheestrangement-theprotestsaftertheDumaelections,whichPutin
blamedontheUnitedStatestheMagnitskyandDimaYakovlevactstheSnowdenaffairtheUkrainecrisisandnow
Syria.
IftheUkrainecrisisbearsaspecialsignificanceitisthis:Bothsidesconcludednotsimplythattherewouldbenoreturnto
businessasusualbutthatareturntobusinessasusualwasnolongerdesirable.Althoughrelationsneednotcontinuetobe
asconfrontationalastheynoware,inthefuturerelationswillbebuiltonadifferentfoundation,onhard-nosedcalculations
ofnationalinterest.Thegoalisnolongerstrategicpartnership.Eachsidewillfocusintentlyonwhattheothersidecan
bringtothetabletoadvanceorthwartitspolicygoals,andthenactaccordingly.Thissituationwillnotchangewithanew
administrationinWashington,nomatterwhoiselectedinNovember,barringaradicalchangeinRussiasposture.The
AmericanforeignpolicyestablishmenthasconcludedthatPutinisseekingtoundermineAmericaspositionintheworld
theRussianforeignpolicyestablishmenthaslongbelievedthattheUnitedStatesisdeterminedtoweakenandcontain
Russia.SoUS-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera.Thepost-ColdWarperiodisover.Whetherthisnew
relationshipwillultimatelybemarkedmorebycompetitionorcooperationremainstobeseen,butforthetimebeing
competitionwillpredominate.

-IfyoutraceeverythingbadbacktoPutin'sreturntoPresidency,thentheonlypolicyoptionfortheUSis
regimechangeinRussia.Isit?

-ThereturnofPutinwasaturningpointfortheObamaadministrationbecauseithadwageredonMedvedev'sservinga
secondterm.Putin'sreturncameasashockandspelledanendtothereset.But,asIsaid,theproblemsinrelationsgo
backmuchfurtherandtheyconcernfundamentalquestionsofworldorder,notpersonalities.Forthatreason,theywill
continuenomatterwhothenextpresidentoftheUnitedStatesis.Betterrelationswillcomewhenworlddevelopments
convincebothsidesthattheyneedtoworktogethertoadvancetheirrespectivenationalinterests.Whenthatmoment
comes,itwillmakelittledifferencetotheAmericanpresidentifPutinisRussianpresidentornot.Hewilldealwiththe
Russianpresident,whoeverthatmightbe.

-SanctionsagainstRussiaarejustatool,ameansofexertingpressure.Soinoneformoranotherthey'll
remaininplaceforaslongasWashingtonwantstohavesuchatool.Doyouthinktheyareheretostay?

-SanctionshavebeenaconstantinUS-RussianrelationsforatleastseveraldecadestheywillremainatoolofUSpolicy
wellintothefuture(foruseagainstRussiaandothercountries).EveniftheMinskagreementsweretobefully
implemented,theUnitedStateswouldretainthesanctionsimposedfortheannexationofCrimea,andtheMagnitskyLaw
wouldremaininplace.

Opinion

WhetherRussiashouldseektodiscusssanctionsandtheirremovalwiththeUnitedStatesisaquestionRussianswill
answerinpart,Iwouldsuspect,ontheimpactofthosesanctions.Evenifsanctionsareinplace,theUnitedStatescan
pursuethemwithgreaterorlesserzeal(theObamaAdministrationhasnotbeenparticularlyactiveinlevyingsanctions
undertheMagnitskyact,forexampleithasbeenmuchmoreassertiveinimplementingthesanctionslinkedtoRussian
actionsinUkraine).AndAmericanpresidentsoftenhavetheauthoritytowaivethemforlongerorshorterperiods(from
theendoftheColdWaruntilitsrepeal,presidentswaivedtheenforcementofrestrictionsundertheJackon-Vanik
amendment).TherewillbetimeswhendiscussingsanctionsmakessensefromthestandpointofRussiannationalinterests,
andothertimeswhenitdoesnot.

-DoyouagreethatRussiashouldlettheAmericansthemselvesdothecallingandaskingtomendfences
sinceRussiadidnotinitiatethebreachinrelations?

-ThebreachinrelationsisaproductofactionsandreactionsbybothMoscowandWashingtonforthepastseveral
years.Inotherwords,Moscowbearssomeresponsibilityforthebreakdown:DiditreallybelievethattheUnitedStates
wouldcalmlyacceptitsannexationofCrimea?IfthebreakdownisdoingharmtobothcountriesasIbelieveisthecase
thenitmakeslittlesensetoquibbleoverwhobearsgreaterresponsibilityforit.Truestatesmenwouldfindawayto
restorerelations.Andacountrythatfeltitselfstrongwouldbepreparedtotaketheinitiativebecause,confidentofits
powerandcapabilities,itwouldnotcareaboutsavingfaceitwouldknowthattakingtheinitiativewasnotasignof
weaknessbutratherofwisdom.Onlythevulnerableworryaboutsavingface.

-ActingTreasuryUndersecretarySzubincouldnothavemadehisrecentBBCcommentsaboutPresidentPutin
withoutclearingthemwithhissuperiorsfirst.Dotheyrepresentadangerousescalationandachangein
policy?

-Asageneralrule,Ibelieveleadersofmajorcountriesshouldshowoneanotherrespectinpublicbyboththeirwords
andbehavior.ThatentailsboththeWhiteHouseandtheKremlindoingwhatitisintheirpowertodotopreventdirect
personalattacksagainstleaders.Inthisregard,neithersideisblameless.Eachsidehasdonemuchtofuelanatmosphere
inwhichitisacceptableforthemediatodemonizetheleaderoftheothercountry.

-Ukraineseemstobeonthewaytoself-destruction,economicallyandpolitically.IsRussiagoingtobethe
onetopickupthepieces?

-Ukraineisindeedamess.Russia,Europe,andtheUnitedStatesallhaveaninterestinitsstabilization,andintheendall
willhavetoplaysomeroleincalmingthesituationthereandrebuildingtheeconomy.Russiacannotdothatonitsown,
especiallyatatimeofgrowingdomesticsocio-economicstress(thisisonereasonMoscowissoinsistentthatthe
DonbassremainpartofUkraine)norcantheUnitedStatesorEurope,especiallygiventhemountingdisarrayinthe
EuropeanUnion.

-InSyriatheRussiansseemtobesucceedingwheretheAmericansfailed.WithorwithoutAssad,Russian
interestswillbepreserved.Doyouagree?

Opinion

-InSyria,thequestionishowtodefinesuccess.SincethebeginningofitsmilitaryoperationlastSeptember,Russiahas
secureditsmilitarybasesontheMediterraneancoastandhelpedAssadconsolidatehispositionintheWestofthe
country.IthasguaranteedthatRussiawillhaveaseatatthetableinanyfuturegeopoliticalreckoningintheMiddleEast.
ButRussiaisstillfarfromhavingdefeatedISISandputanendtotheterroristthreattoRussia.Moreover,nomatterwhat
happenstoAssad,andinSyriaforthatmatter,thequestionofthefutureequilibriumintheMiddleEastisstillopen.In
thatlight,Russiansuccesseshavebeentacticaltheyarenotstrategic,thatis,notirreversible.Thefutureequilibriumwill
tellwhetherRussiahashadsuccessornot.Russiahowever,cannotcreatethisnewequilibriumonitsown.Itwillneed
todealwiththeUnitedStatesinsomeway,aswellaswiththemajorregionalpowers,includingIsrael,Iran,SaudiArabia,
andTurkey.ThemostdifficultchallengesintheMiddleEastlieahead.

InterviewedbyAndreiSitov

SentfrommyiPad
From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 02/27/201608:59:28PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:TRUMPCOMETH

Ifearhe'sright.IworryaboutthefutureofANZUS.

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:TonyManiaty<tony.maniaty@bigpond.com>
Date:26February201619:17:48AEDT
To:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Subject:Re:TRUMPCOMETH

Kyle

Trump,theconsummatefoolasLouiscallshim.Horriblycorrect.

Meanwhile,aglimmerofhopeagainsttheestablishmentpress(NYT)frompossiblytheloneliestvoiceinTexas

MarcCampbell,Austin,Texas33minutesago
PleaseNewYorkTimesgetittogether."Feisty."Clinicallyinsaneismorelikeit.Howcouldyoupossiblycoverthisdebate
andnotseeitforwhatitreallyis:acompleteanduttermeltdownoftheRepublicanPartyandterriblereflectiononthe
UnitedStates.TheTimesisperpetuatingthenotionthattheseclownsdeserveseriousanalysis.Whatneedstobe
urgentlyaddressedisnotwhowinsorlosesintheseso-calleddebatesbutthefactthattheseidiotsareactuallyona
stagewithmicrophonesbeingbroadcasttopeopleacrosstheplanetasrepresentativesoftheUSA.Whatwilldestroythis
countryfasterthandebt,IsisorNorthKoreaistheimageweareprojectingtotherestoftheworldthatweasAmericans
areactuallyconsideringtoelectoneofthesetoxicbagsoffleshastheleaderofourcountry.Ihangmyheadinshame.

Sorrytoaddtotheloadofyourpsyche.WecanallholdhandsandprayforaClintonvictory,badalsoasthatcould
be.HerselfhasevenreachedthestageofsayingtheresnodifferencebetweenHilaryandTrump.Idisagree,butIget
herpoint.Hilary:extremelymurky,loosecannon,borntorule.WhathappenedAmerica?Wheredidallthegood
peoplego?Oreventheprofessionalpeople,excellentatgovernmentwhatevertheirpoliticalbrand?Three-
hundred-millionanditcomesdowntothis???Eitherthemasseswillsay,thisisinsane,Icoulddobetter-andget
involved-ortheyllwalkawayfromtraditional,structuredpoliticsandmigratetothesocialmediapoliticallandscape,
wherethefutureresidesandmayhemwillensue,becausetheWesterneconomicsystemcanthandlerulefromthe
streets,orFacebookorTwitter-everythingaboutitwasdesignedfromanimpregnabletopdown.Opps,vertigo...

Tony

On26Feb2016,at11:02,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:

I'malwaysworriedandnowevenmore!And

SentfrommyiPad

On26Feb2016,at10:14,TonyManiaty<tony.maniaty@bigpond.com>wrote:

Kyle
Areweworriedyet?TrumpwillwintheRepublicannomination,andmaybethe
Presidency?Istheworldactuallyreadyforthis?

Christ,howdidthishappen?WashingtonPostranthisexcellentpiecefromRobertKagan,
verymuchaconservativeofcourse(Brookingsetc).AcaseofalltheGOPchickens
cominghometoroost,minusbrains.Itsalsoentirelysymptomatic(inmyview)ofaworld
inwhichlong-termstrategyorplanninghasbeendumpedatalllevelsforpoliticaland
economicexpediency(readpowerandprofits),andTrumphaslongbeentheflag-bearer
forthatopportunisticcamp.Soshouldanyonebethatsurprised?Iguessnot.NewYork
friendshavebeentellingmefordecadeshowbovineAmericansaregenerally,andnow
theyvefoundtheirtrueleader.(Onetoldmehisdaughtergraduatedwithhighmarksfrom
oneofthebestcollegesinthecountryandcouldntpointonamaptowhereUtahwas)
Ofcoursetheblue-collarsandthered-necksbelievetheyhaveplentytocomplainabout,
sotheyrelookingforasaviour.Andnowtheyvefoundone,andhesalsofunny.Two
buttonsatonce.

OnecanthelprecallingPeterCooksbrilliantlinethathisEstablishmentClubinLondon
wouldbeasatiricalvenuemodelledon'thosewonderfulBerlincabaretswhichdidso
muchtostoptheriseofHitlerandpreventtheoutbreakoftheSecondWorldWar.Allthe
goofygagsandsend-upsofTrumpareactuallyplayingintothisholocaust.TheGameof
Thronessend-updoneforABCSTheInsidershasgoneviralgloballyandevenmadethe
front-pageoftheNYT.WhichmakesitofficialthatTrumpcannotbesent-upnegatively
becausehesalreadytheking,hesactinglikehesalreadythereandAmericaisactinglike
hesalreadythere.Histhinghasdevelopedalifeofitsown,outsidetraditionalcircuitsof
mediaanalysisandevennormalsatire,whichissupposedtomakefoolsofitstargets.
Almostnothingcanhurthisbidfromnowon,becausehessettingtheterms.Prediction:
thiswillbewhentheworldlooksbackanddeclaresthiswasthemomentwhentraditional
legacymediadied,alongwithitshand-in-glovecronytraditionalpoliticalstructures,and
socialmediaandthepowerofimmediacytookovertheentiregame.Therewillbeno
returntotheoldways.

Whatsweirdforme,ontheCroydoniafront,isthatTrumpisstartingtomakeVladimir
Putinlooklikeasensible,rationally-mindedleader.Trumpadmires'him,notleastI
suspectbecausePutin'sgot80%+approvalratingswiththepopulation.Ironicallyof
course,PutinisanythingbutapopulistinthatbarnstormingAmericanwayhescoldand
private,asbefitsaKremlinoccupant.OnecanonlyimaginePutinwatchingTrumponTV
andthinking,Whatafuckingbuffoon.Whatafuckingdumbcountry.Firsttheyelectaguy
whossoniceandsweetandrelaxedthatIcanwalkalloverhim,invadeUkraine,take
Crimea,stealtheagendainSyria,andnowtheyusetheirso-calleddemocraticsystemto
electarantingdumbowhosaysheactuallylikesmebecauseImahard-noseddictator.
Mmm,letssee-howcanIusethistomycompleteadvantage?Trumpisofcourseat
heartanold-fashionedisolationist,sogoodbyeEurope,butwithanewtwist-hesgot
thosewonderfulnucleartoystowaveintheirfaces.AndChina?Themtoo!Diplomacy?
WhatsdiplomacyeverdoneforAmericasince9/11?Youcanwritethescriptnow...

Anyway,Kaganspiece,shortbutvery
effective:http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-the-gops-frankenstein-
monster-now-hes-strong-enough-to-destroy-the-party/2016/02/25/3e443f28-dbc1-
11e5-925f-1d10062cc82d_story.html?postshare=3251456435249855&tid=ss_fb

BlametheGOP?IfyoureaDemocrat.BlameAmerica?NotifyoureAmerican.Iknow,
BLAMECANADA.

Cheers

Tony
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 02/25/201611:28:18PM
To: RobertOtto<acrotto@us-state.osis.gov>
Subject: sestanovichonlitvinenko/magnitskiy

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/01/22/vladimir-putin-and-the-murder-of-alexander-litvinenko/

VladimirPutinandtheMurderofAlexander
Litvinenko
By

StephenSestanovich

Jan22,20162:40pmET

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheKremlinthisweek.
MetzelMikhail/TASSviaZumaPress

TheretiredBritishjudgeRobertOwenwaswrongtosay,inhisverythoroughreportonthepoloniumpoisoningof
AlexanderLitvinenkoin2006,thatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinprobablyapprovedthekilling.Wrongfor
threereasons.First,becausedoingsodivertedattentionfromtheinquirysincontrovertiblefindings.Second,becauseMr.
Owendoesntreallyhaveanyidea.Third,itsasuperfluousindictment:AsysteminwhichMr.Putinorderedthekilling
wouldnotbeanymoreshockingorhorriblethantheoneweknowexists.

Thereportisanimpressivereconstructionofhowthepoisoningtookplace.Itleavesnodoubtthatpolonium210,arare
andlethalradioactiveisotope,wasusedbyMr.Litvinenkostea-timecompanions,AndreiLugovoiandDmitriKovtun.They
andothers,includingspokesmenfortheRussianregime,candismissandderidethereport.Theycantrefuteit.Itsno
longercredibletoaskwhethertheChechenmafiaorMr.Litvinenkohimselfwasresponsible.Caseclosed.
AlexanderLitvinenkopicturedintheIntensiveCareUnitofUniversityCollegeHospitalinLondoninNovember
2006.
NatasjaWeitsz/GettyImages

Still,establishingwhocommittedamurderisnotthesamethingasknowingwhoorderedit.Mr.Owenmayhave
informationhecannotdivulge,buthiscaseforsayingitwasprobablyMr.Putinisweak.Yes,Mr.Litvinenkos
cooperationwithWesterngovernmentscertainlymadehimatraitorinMr.Putinseyes.Butitmadehimatraitorintheeyes
ofmanyintheworldofRussianintelligence.SomemaybelievesuchpeoplewouldnothaveactedwithoutMr.Putinssay-
so,butthatsreallyjustaguess.EvenifthepoloniumcamefromaRussiannuclearreactorandthereportseemsuncertain
ofthisitwouldbehardtoarguethatonlypresidentialapprovalmadeitpossibleforthekillerstogetthematerialandtakeit
toLondon.FingeringMr.Putinisaleapnotacrazyleapjustonewithoutthefirmfoundationonwhichtherestofthe
reportrests.

Itsright,ofcourse,toaskwhy,givenalltheevidenceagainstMr.LugovoiandMr.Kovtun,Mr.Putinwouldprotect(much
lesspromote)themifheorhisimmediateassociateswerentdirectlyinvolvedintheaffair.Yetheclearlywould.Mr.Putin
protectssmall-timethugs,swindlers,andmurdererstowhomhehasnoconnectionwhatever.Hisprotectionofthepeople
whoarrangedthenowwell-knownmurderofSergeiMagnitskyleavesnodoubtonthisscore.VladimirPutinseemsto
believethatpullingonthestringofcorruptionandimpunity,whichdefinethesystemhehasbuilt,wouldeventuallybringit
crashingdown.Heis,asMr.Owenmightsay,probablyright.

StephenSestanovich,aprofessoratColumbiaUniversityandseniorfellowattheCouncilonForeign
Relations,istheauthorofMaximalist:AmericaintheWorldFromTrumantoObama.Heison
Twitter:@ssestanovich.

ALSOINTHINKTANK:

TheThreeVladimirPutins

JoeBidensMissioninUkraine

Clintonvs.Rubio:WhosRightAboutRadicalIslam?
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 03/05/201610:20:16AM
To: JohnP.Williams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: TASS:World-ThomasGraham:US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera

ThomasGraham:US-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera

InearlyFebruary,oneoftheleadingUSexpertsonRussia,ThomasGraham,visitedMoscow.Grahamusedto
beSpecialAssistanttothePresidentandSeniorDirectorforRussiaontheNationalSecurityCouncilstafffrom
2004to2007andDirectorforRussianAffairsonthatstafffrom2002to2004.Now,he'sisamanagingdirector
atKissingerAssociates,aswellasoneoftheco-DirectorsoftheRussianStudiesProjectatYale.Onhisreturnto
theUnitedState,ThomasGrahamwasinterviewedbyTASS.

-RussianexpertssaythebreachinrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUSdidnotreallyhappenbecauseof
Ukrainebuthadothercauses(beginningwithMagnitsky,Snowden,etc).IfnotUkraine,itwouldhavebeen
somethingelse,theysay.Theyalsothinkthebreachislikelytobelong-lastinganditmostprobablywon'tend
withthechangeofadministrationinDC.Doyouagreewiththat?

-Difficultrelationswereinevitable,ifonlybecausetheUnitedStatesandRussiaespouseradicallydifferentviewsofworld
order.Weinterpretdifferentlykeyprinciplessuchassovereignty,territorialintegrity,andself-determinationwedifferover
whatconstitutesthelegitimateuseofforcewedisagreeaboutthelegitimacyofspheresofinfluenceand,ofcourse,we
countdifferentnumbersofpolesofpowerintheworldtoday.Twocountrieswithsuchprofounddifferencescanco-exist,
andevencooperateinamultipolarworld,buttheycanneverbestrategicpartners,asmanyinbothcountrieshadhoped
attheendoftheColdWar.Toughcompetitionwasandremainsinevitableallthatwasmissingintheearlypost-ColdWar
periodwasaRussiastrongenoughtodefenditsinterests.ThatsituationchangedafterPutinrosetopower.

Abreachinrelations,atotalbreakdownincommunication,wasnotinevitable,however.Thatwasaconsequenceofthe
waybothMoscowandWashingtonreactedtotheUkrainecrisis.Eachsideblamestheotherforthebreachneitherside
ispreparedtotaketheinitiativeinrestoringties.Simplysaying,asMoscowdoes,thatitispreparedfordialogueif
Washingtonis,isnotthesameastakingstepstoencouragetheemergenceofdialogue.Wedidnotstartthisisnotan
invitationtorestorerelations.Infact,WashingtonisalsoreadytoendthebreachifonlyMoscowbacksdownonall
theissues-onCrimeaandEasternUkraine,inparticular-thatlieatthecoreofthecurrenttension.Mutatismutandis,
thatisMoscowspositiontoo.

Iftherewasacriticalturningpointinpost-SovietUS-RussianrelationsIwoulddateittotheendof2004.Itcameright
afterthepeakingoodrelationshadbeenreached.Althoughitwasnotrecognizedatthetime,themostpromisingperiod
forrelationscanbedatedroughlyfromtheSeptember2001terroristattacksagainsttheUnitedStatesuntilthemiddleof
thefallof2002,whensharpdifferencesoverhowtodealwithIraqandSaddamHusseinemerged.Thehighpointwas
markedbytheJointDeclarationthatPresidentsPutinandBushissuedinMay2002,whichestablishedaframeworkfor
strategicpartnershipbetweenequalsbasedonahardcalculationofnationalinterest.

Intoneandsubstance,theDeclarationpartedwayswiththejointstatementsissuedearlierbyClintonandYeltsinand
subsequentlybyObamaandMedvedev.TheClintonAdministrationwasdeterminedtotransformRussiaintoafree-
marketdemocracyalongAmericanlines,and,ifittalkedofpartnership,Russiawasdistinctlythejuniorpartner.The
ObamaAdministrationwasonlywillingtoworkwithRussiaonanarrowrangeofissuesinwhichRussianparticipation
wasindispensable,primarilyintheareathestrategicarmscontrols,consistentwithObamasinitialsignaturegoalof
creatingaworldwithoutnuclearweapons.InboththeClintonandObamaAdministrationstherewerelargebilateral
commissions(Gore-ChernomyrdinandtheBilateralPresidentialCommission)thatcreatedanillusionofbroader
partnership,buttheconcreteresultinbothcaseswereunderwhelming.

Tobesure,therewerethoseintheBushAdministration-largelyneocons-whodidnotpursuethegoalofstrategic
partnershipingoodfaith,astherewereretrogradeforcesontheRussianside,especiallyinthepowerministries,who
fearedtheconsequencesofagenuinestrategicpartnershipandworkedtothwartitsrealization.Buttheimportantpointis
thatthetwoPresidentssharedtheambitiontocreatesuchapartnership.Thatsharedambitionsurvivedeventhe
AmericaninterventioninIraqinspring2003.Bythefallofthatyear,vigorouseffortswerebeingmadebybothsidesto
restorethefoundationsofpartnership.

Theturningpointcameinthefallof2004,bookendedbytwoevents:theBeslantragedySeptemberandtheOrange
RevolutioninUkraineinNovember/December.ThoseeventsledPutinandtherestoftheRussianleadershiptoconclude
thattheUnitedStateswasinfactouttoweakenandcontainRussia,thatcounterterrorismanddemocracypromotion
werebothsmokescreensintendedtomaskAmericasgeopoliticaladvanceintheformerSovietspace.Bythemiddleof
2005,MoscowhaddevelopedacoherentstrategytopushbackagainstAmericaninfluencethroughoutthatregion.The
competitiontheresharpenedandpoisonedtheentirerelationship.

Atthesametime,MoscowabandonedanydesiretointegrateintoTransatlanticstructures,whichhadbeentheprimary
motivebehindWashingtonsRussiapolicy.PutindrovethatpointhomeinhisfamousremarksattheMunichSecurity
ConferenceinFebruary2007.TherefollowedtheRusso-GeorgianWarofAugust2008,inwhichMoscowforthefirst
timedemonstratedthatitwaspreparedtouseforcetoresistUSencroachments,throughNATOexpansion,intowhatit
considereditszoneofprivilegedinterests.Washingtonsawthatwarasafundamentalviolationoftherulesthathad
governedsecurityrelationsinEuropesinceatleasttheHelsinkiAccordsof1975.

Relationsneverreallyrecovered.Theresetwasabriefinterludeoflimitedachievementbroughttoadefinitiveendona
specificdate:September24,2011,whenPutinannouncedhisdeterminationtoreturntotheKremlinasPresident.
Thereafter,acascadeofeventsonlydeepenedtheestrangement-theprotestsaftertheDumaelections,whichPutin
blamedontheUnitedStatestheMagnitskyandDimaYakovlevactstheSnowdenaffairtheUkrainecrisisandnow
Syria.
IftheUkrainecrisisbearsaspecialsignificanceitisthis:Bothsidesconcludednotsimplythattherewouldbenoreturnto
businessasusualbutthatareturntobusinessasusualwasnolongerdesirable.Althoughrelationsneednotcontinuetobe
asconfrontationalastheynoware,inthefuturerelationswillbebuiltonadifferentfoundation,onhard-nosedcalculations
ofnationalinterest.Thegoalisnolongerstrategicpartnership.Eachsidewillfocusintentlyonwhattheothersidecan
bringtothetabletoadvanceorthwartitspolicygoals,andthenactaccordingly.Thissituationwillnotchangewithanew
administrationinWashington,nomatterwhoiselectedinNovember,barringaradicalchangeinRussiasposture.The
AmericanforeignpolicyestablishmenthasconcludedthatPutinisseekingtoundermineAmericaspositionintheworld
theRussianforeignpolicyestablishmenthaslongbelievedthattheUnitedStatesisdeterminedtoweakenandcontain
Russia.SoUS-Russianrelationshaveenteredanewera.Thepost-ColdWarperiodisover.Whetherthisnew
relationshipwillultimatelybemarkedmorebycompetitionorcooperationremainstobeseen,butforthetimebeing
competitionwillpredominate.

-IfyoutraceeverythingbadbacktoPutin'sreturntoPresidency,thentheonlypolicyoptionfortheUSis
regimechangeinRussia.Isit?

-ThereturnofPutinwasaturningpointfortheObamaadministrationbecauseithadwageredonMedvedev'sservinga
secondterm.Putin'sreturncameasashockandspelledanendtothereset.But,asIsaid,theproblemsinrelationsgo
backmuchfurtherandtheyconcernfundamentalquestionsofworldorder,notpersonalities.Forthatreason,theywill
continuenomatterwhothenextpresidentoftheUnitedStatesis.Betterrelationswillcomewhenworlddevelopments
convincebothsidesthattheyneedtoworktogethertoadvancetheirrespectivenationalinterests.Whenthatmoment
comes,itwillmakelittledifferencetotheAmericanpresidentifPutinisRussianpresidentornot.Hewilldealwiththe
Russianpresident,whoeverthatmightbe.

-SanctionsagainstRussiaarejustatool,ameansofexertingpressure.Soinoneformoranotherthey'll
remaininplaceforaslongasWashingtonwantstohavesuchatool.Doyouthinktheyareheretostay?

-SanctionshavebeenaconstantinUS-RussianrelationsforatleastseveraldecadestheywillremainatoolofUSpolicy
wellintothefuture(foruseagainstRussiaandothercountries).EveniftheMinskagreementsweretobefully
implemented,theUnitedStateswouldretainthesanctionsimposedfortheannexationofCrimea,andtheMagnitskyLaw
wouldremaininplace.

Opinion

WhetherRussiashouldseektodiscusssanctionsandtheirremovalwiththeUnitedStatesisaquestionRussianswill
answerinpart,Iwouldsuspect,ontheimpactofthosesanctions.Evenifsanctionsareinplace,theUnitedStatescan
pursuethemwithgreaterorlesserzeal(theObamaAdministrationhasnotbeenparticularlyactiveinlevyingsanctions
undertheMagnitskyact,forexampleithasbeenmuchmoreassertiveinimplementingthesanctionslinkedtoRussian
actionsinUkraine).AndAmericanpresidentsoftenhavetheauthoritytowaivethemforlongerorshorterperiods(from
theendoftheColdWaruntilitsrepeal,presidentswaivedtheenforcementofrestrictionsundertheJackon-Vanik
amendment).TherewillbetimeswhendiscussingsanctionsmakessensefromthestandpointofRussiannationalinterests,
andothertimeswhenitdoesnot.

-DoyouagreethatRussiashouldlettheAmericansthemselvesdothecallingandaskingtomendfences
sinceRussiadidnotinitiatethebreachinrelations?

-ThebreachinrelationsisaproductofactionsandreactionsbybothMoscowandWashingtonforthepastseveral
years.Inotherwords,Moscowbearssomeresponsibilityforthebreakdown:DiditreallybelievethattheUnitedStates
wouldcalmlyacceptitsannexationofCrimea?IfthebreakdownisdoingharmtobothcountriesasIbelieveisthecase
thenitmakeslittlesensetoquibbleoverwhobearsgreaterresponsibilityforit.Truestatesmenwouldfindawayto
restorerelations.Andacountrythatfeltitselfstrongwouldbepreparedtotaketheinitiativebecause,confidentofits
powerandcapabilities,itwouldnotcareaboutsavingfaceitwouldknowthattakingtheinitiativewasnotasignof
weaknessbutratherofwisdom.Onlythevulnerableworryaboutsavingface.

-ActingTreasuryUndersecretarySzubincouldnothavemadehisrecentBBCcommentsaboutPresidentPutin
withoutclearingthemwithhissuperiorsfirst.Dotheyrepresentadangerousescalationandachangein
policy?

-Asageneralrule,Ibelieveleadersofmajorcountriesshouldshowoneanotherrespectinpublicbyboththeirwords
andbehavior.ThatentailsboththeWhiteHouseandtheKremlindoingwhatitisintheirpowertodotopreventdirect
personalattacksagainstleaders.Inthisregard,neithersideisblameless.Eachsidehasdonemuchtofuelanatmosphere
inwhichitisacceptableforthemediatodemonizetheleaderoftheothercountry.

-Ukraineseemstobeonthewaytoself-destruction,economicallyandpolitically.IsRussiagoingtobethe
onetopickupthepieces?

-Ukraineisindeedamess.Russia,Europe,andtheUnitedStatesallhaveaninterestinitsstabilization,andintheendall
willhavetoplaysomeroleincalmingthesituationthereandrebuildingtheeconomy.Russiacannotdothatonitsown,
especiallyatatimeofgrowingdomesticsocio-economicstress(thisisonereasonMoscowissoinsistentthatthe
DonbassremainpartofUkraine)norcantheUnitedStatesorEurope,especiallygiventhemountingdisarrayinthe
EuropeanUnion.

-InSyriatheRussiansseemtobesucceedingwheretheAmericansfailed.WithorwithoutAssad,Russian
interestswillbepreserved.Doyouagree?

Opinion

-InSyria,thequestionishowtodefinesuccess.SincethebeginningofitsmilitaryoperationlastSeptember,Russiahas
secureditsmilitarybasesontheMediterraneancoastandhelpedAssadconsolidatehispositionintheWestofthe
country.IthasguaranteedthatRussiawillhaveaseatatthetableinanyfuturegeopoliticalreckoningintheMiddleEast.
ButRussiaisstillfarfromhavingdefeatedISISandputanendtotheterroristthreattoRussia.Moreover,nomatterwhat
happenstoAssad,andinSyriaforthatmatter,thequestionofthefutureequilibriumintheMiddleEastisstillopen.In
thatlight,Russiansuccesseshavebeentacticaltheyarenotstrategic,thatis,notirreversible.Thefutureequilibriumwill
tellwhetherRussiahashadsuccessornot.Russiahowever,cannotcreatethisnewequilibriumonitsown.Itwillneed
todealwiththeUnitedStatesinsomeway,aswellaswiththemajorregionalpowers,includingIsrael,Iran,SaudiArabia,
andTurkey.ThemostdifficultchallengesintheMiddleEastlieahead.

InterviewedbyAndreiSitov

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 02/25/201612:14:20PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:FYI

From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Thursday,February25,201611:46AM
To:JohnBDunlopTemuriYakobashviliMuradal-ShishaniClintonSmullyanJr
Subject:Fwd:FYI

Report:DozensofRussiangeneralsinSyriakilledafteracarbombhits
theirmilitarybase JoinourdailyfreeNewsletter
MENAFN-TheJournalOfTurkishWeekly-25/02/2016
No.ofRatings:0 AddtoMixx!
(MENAFN-TheJournalOfTurkishWeekly)DozensofRussiangeneralsatamilitarybaseneartheeastern E-MailArticle
SyriancityofLatakiawerekilledSundayafternooninadeadlycarbombattackcommittedbytwo Printer-Friendly
oppositionfactionsAhraral-ShamandBayanmovementSyriangroupsreportedonWednesday. Translate
ShareArticle

AccordingtothemediaofficeofAhraral-Shamthetwofactionsincoordinationwithlocaljihadistswho
TextSize
werelocatedattheRussianmilitarybasedecidedtobombthecaraftertheyobservedagatheringof
seniorRussiangeneralsatthemilitarybase.

Ahraral-ShamclaimsthatdozensofRussiangeneralswerekilledandinjuredintheexplosion.According
tothemovemetheannouncementoftheterrorattackwasdelayeduntilWednesdaytoensurethatthe
jihadistswhocommittedtheattackreturnedsafelytooppositionterritories.

ThemilitarybasethatwashitbythecarbombisconsideredoneofthemostimportantmilitarycentersoftheRussianforceson
theSyriancoastlocatedsome15kilometersfromLatakia.

ThebelatedannouncementofthecarbombingcameshortlybeforetheSyriantrucewasscheduledtostartonSaturday.
RussiaandtheUShavealreadyannouncedthattheceasefirewillnotapplytoISISandal-NusraFrontbutinlightofthisterror
attackRussiamightdemandtheexclusionofAhraral-Shamaswell.

--
Glen

GlenE.Howard
President
TheJamestownFoundation
1111SixteenthStreet,N.W.
Suite320
Washington,D.C.20036
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 02/23/201609:40:57AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:RussiaWantsaCloserLookattheUSforDurveillance

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Tuesday,February23,20165:01AM
To:GlenE.HowardDavidGlantzJacobKippTimothyThomasJonChickyIhorKabanenkoBohdan.K
upych@kmcore.comPaulGobleJohnBDunlopMatthewCzekajRobSpringClintonSmullyanJrWill
emdeVogel
Subject:RussiaWantsaCloserLookattheUSforDurveillance

WASHINGTONRussiaaskedonMondaytoflysurveillanceplanesequippedwithhigh-powereddigital
camerasovertheUnitedStates,fuelingalong-simmeringdebateamongPentagonandintelligenceof
ficialsoverRussiasintentionstousesuchflightstospyonAmericanpowerplants,communicatio
nsnetworksandothercriticalinfrastructure.

RussiahasforyearsconductedunarmedobservationflightsovertheUnitedStatesastheUnited
StatesdoesoverRussiaaspartoftheOpenSkiesTreatythatwassignedin1992bybothnations
and32othercountriesattheendoftheColdWar,andenteredintoforceadecadelater.Althoug
hthetreatyandtheflights,unfamiliartomostAmericans,amounttoofficiallysanctionedspying
,theirgoalhasbeentofostertransparencyaboutmilitaryactivityandtoreducetheriskofwar
andmiscalculation,especiallyinEurope.
NowsomeseniorAmericanintelligenceandmilitaryofficialssaythenewdigitaltechnologycombin
edwithshiftingRussianflightplanswouldviolatethespiritofthetreaty.SomeRepublicansals
oexpressedalarm.
IcannotseewhytheUnitedStateswouldallowRussiatoflyasurveillanceplanewithanadvance
dsensorovertheUnitedStatestocollectintelligence,RepresentativeMacThornberry,aTexasR
epublicanwhoheadstheHouseArmedServicesCommittee,saidinastatementonMonday.
AmericanintelligenceofficialssayRussiasspysatellitenetworkisfrayed,sotheflightsover
theUnitedStatesarearelativelycheapwayforMoscowtofillinsomeimportantintelligencegap
s.ThatwasnotsoalarmingwhentheRussianflightsmainlyflewoverAmericanmissilesilos,bunk
ersandbomberfields,aspermittedinthetreaty.
Inthepastfewyears,however,theRussiansflightshavedevelopedawanderingeye,criticssay,
andnowflymoreroutinelyoversomeofthecountrysmostimportantinfrastructure,accordingto
classifiedmilitaryintelligenceassessments.(TheUnitedStatesreliesonitsownpowerfulsatell
ites,ratherthantheseflights,forsuchintelligence.)TheStateDepartmentseestheRussianpro
posalasasmallconcessionthatcouldhelppreservetheOpenSkiesTreaty,whichisimportantto
Europeanallies,andavoidaddingstraintotheUnitedStatestroubledrelationshipwithRussia.
AllowingRussiatoswitchtothenewelectro-opticalsensorsforthesemoreintrusiveflightswoul
dgiveMoscowafaster,morereliablemeansofconductingsurveillance(andaneasierwayofconce
alingtheirobjectives)thantheclunkywet-filmprocessingthatmostnations,includingtheUnite
dStates,aretransitioningawayfrom,criticssaid.
Bothmethodscapturethesamelevelofresolutionallowedunderthetreaty.ButsomeseniorAmeric
anmilitaryandintelligenceofficialssaythechangecouldleaveAmericasmostimportantinfrast
ructurevulnerabletotargetingbynewlong-rangeRussiancruisemissiles.
TheAssociatedPressfirstreportedRussiasrequesttoputthesensorsonlonger-rangeTu-154air
craftthatRussiafliesintheUnitedStates.
TheRussianrequestcomesatatimewhenMoscowhassteadilyincreasedrestrictionsonwhereAmeri
cantreatysurveillanceplanescanflyoverRussia,accordingtotheStateDepartmentsmostrecen
tarmscontrolcompliancereports.TheRussianrestrictionshaveaddedtowhatisalreadyoneoft
hemosttenseperiodsinUnitedStates-RussianrelationssincetheendoftheColdWar,withthet
wonationsinstrongdisagreementoverRussianactivityinSyriaandUkraine.

TheadministrationmustdecideinthenextfourmonthswhethertoobjecttotheRussianrequestth
atisnowbeforetheOpenSkiesConsultativeCommissioninVienna.
ThetreatyhasbecomeacriticalcomponentofRussiasintelligencecollectioncapabilitydirecte
dattheUnitedStates,Adm.CecilD.Haney,commanderoftheUnitedStatesStrategicCommand,wr
oteinaletterinApriltoRepresentativeMikeRogers,anAlabamaRepublicanwhoheadstheHouse
ArmedServicessubcommitteeonstrategicforces.

Inadditiontooverflyingmilitaryinstallations,RussianOpenSkiesflightscanoverflyandcoll
ectonDoDandnationalsecurityornationalcriticalinfrastructure,AdmiralHaneywrote,referr
ingtotheDepartmentofDefense.Thevulnerabilitiesexposedbyexploitationofthisdataandco
stsofmitigationareincreasinglydifficulttocharacterize.
IntheUnitedStates,atypicalRussianOpenSkiesflightcovers2,500to3,000milesovertwoday
s.Therearealwayssevento10AmericanpersonnelfromthePentagonsDefenseThreatReductionAg
encyontheRussianplanetoensurecompliance.
Inaddition,thevisitingcountryandthehostnationmustagreeonaflightplanbeforeamission
proceeds.Thehostnationmayproposechangestoit.

Allinspectedpartiesarenotifiedaheadoftimeoftheflightpathofobservationflights,anda
reabletoprovideamplewarningtosensitivelocationswithintheflightpath,RoseE.Gottemoel
ler,theundersecretaryofstateforarmscontrolandinternationalsecurity,saidinastatement.
Nothinginthetreatyprecludesshroudingthesetypesofsensitivefacilitiesoractivities.Fur
ther,theUnitedStatesreceivesacopyofeveryphototakenofflightsoveritsterritory,sowe
haveacrystalclearideaofwhatcountriesareobserving.
TheRussianshavebeenusingthenewelectro-opticalsensorsonshorter-rangeflightsinEuropefo
rthepastyear,achangeapprovedbyEuropeanandAmericanofficials.Inreturn,Europeanssayth
eirOpenSkiesflightsoverUkraineandwesternRussiasinceFebruary2014haveprovidedthemwith
vitalinformationduringRussiasaggressioninUkraine.

Still,militaryandintelligenceofficialsexpressseriousconcern.
TheOpenSkiesconstructwasdesignedforadifferentera,Lt.Gen.VincentStewart,directorof
theDefenseIntelligenceAgency,toldlawmakerswhenaskedabouttheRussianflightsatacongres
sionalhearinglastFebruary,apositionhisspokesmansaidhemaintains.Imveryconcernedabou
thowitsappliedtoday.

RobertWork,thedeputysecretaryofdefense,toldCongressinaletterlastJune:Russiasrecen
tactivitiesinarangeofareasraisequestionsaboutitswillingnesstoabideingoodfaithwith
itsinternationalcommitments,includingitsobligationsundertheOpenSkiesTreaty.

AccordingtotheStateDepartmentsarmscontrolcompliancereportin2015,Russiaplacedaltitude
limitationsonAmericanOpenSkiesflightsoverChechnya,certainareasaroundMoscow,andalong
theborderofRussiawiththeGeorgianregionsofSouthOssetiaandAbkhazia.In2014,Russiaimpo
sedflightrestrictionsoverKaliningrad.
RussiaconductedfiveflightsovertheUnitedStatesin2014andfourin2015,accordingtotheDe
fenseDepartment.Thisyear,Russiaisexpectedtoconductsixflights,startingfromeitherDulle
sInternationalAirportoutsideWashington,orTravisAirForceBaseinCalifornia.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 02/13/201611:25:01AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:

From:paulroderickgregory[mailto:pgregory@stanford.edu]
Sent:Saturday,February13,201612:15AM
Subject:

WhatifPutinhasHillary'semailsoratleastpeoplethinkhehasthem?Whythetwoyeardelayafterthestorybroke
in2013?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/02/12/vladimirputinhillaryclintonemails/#76331be57fe6

Forbes Welcome
www.forbes.com

Forbes Welcome page Forbes is a global media company, focusing on business, investing, technology,
entrepreneurship, leadership, and lifestyle.

From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 02/10/201604:24:40PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: They'reBack

McFaul,Gordon

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/10/inside-hillary-clintons-massive-foreign-policy-brain-trust/
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 02/05/201608:50:00AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:MichaelWEISS,PierreVAUX,"AreUSmissilestakingoutRussianMILITARYOFFICIALS?ACIA-backedanti-Assadmilitiareportedly
Subject:
killedatleastoneseniorRussianmilitary[officer],"thedailybeast.com,2/5

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,February05,20168:50AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:MichaelWEISS,PierreVAUX,"AreUSmissilestakingoutRussianMILITARYOFFICIALS?ACIA-backedanti-Assadmilitia
reportedlykilledatleastoneseniorRussianmilitary[officer],"thedailybeast.com,2/5

IftheFreeSyrianArmyisindeedtakingoutRussiancommanderswithAmericanmateriel,thentwo
formerColdWaradversarieswouldfindthemselvesinaminiaturereplayoftheSovietAfghanwar

And:KISSINGERmeetswithPutininMoscowandthenonthepagesofthenationalInterestineffect
urgesanewdtentewithRussia:KissingersVisionforUSRussiaRelations,
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/kissingersvisionusrussiarelations15111

And:POPEtomeetwithheadofRussianOrthodoxChurch[inHavana,CubaonFebruary12],
telegraph.co.uk,2/5

Itmarksthefirstofitskindbetweenthetwochurchessincethe11thcentury.

And:Anewprotesterupts:MoscowhardcurrencyMORTGAGEHOLDERStaketothestreets,
themoscowtimes.com,2/5SeePHOTOS

And:ThousandsfleeasRussianbackedoffensivethreatenstobesiegeALEPPO,reuters.com,2/5

And:MikhailROSTOVSKII,HowisRussiathreatenedby[alikely]Syrianmilitaryinterventionby
TURKEYandSAUDIARABIA?http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1381691/

And:FOM[pollingagency]:Forthefirsttimesincethebeginningofthe[economic]crisisaMAJORITY
[58%]ofRussianshavecalledtheirsituationBAD,
http://www.newsru.com/finance/05feb2016/fompoll_print.html

And:[Hillary]CLINTONsaysRussiapressuringUSalliesinEurope,themsocowtimes.com,2/5

And:12pageportraitofAlexeiNAVALNYbyPOLITICO:AlexeiNavalny,Russiandissidentinwinter,
www.politico.eu,2/5

And:TheRussianMVDiscarryingoutsearchesintheofficesofformertopPutincronyVladimir
YAKUNINusinginformationdisseminatedbyNavalnyi:http://tvrain.ru/articles/istochniki403093/

And:VitaliiPORTNIKOVseesmajorsignificanceofPutinsappointmentofaformerpresidential
bodyguard,AlekseiDyumin,asgovernorofTula:http://grani.ru/portnikov/m.248355.html

Theadvancement[ofsuchpersons]happensonlywhenaRussianmonarchalreadytrustsnoone
andisevenafraidofhisownshadow.ThemostrecentexamplewasYeltsinwhodrew[generals]
KorzhakovandBarsukovclose
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 01/26/201612:01:12PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes26January2016
Attachments: IN26Jan16.docx

InternetNotes26January2016

NotesonNotes(Litvinenko)

Kashin/VenediktovontheLitvinenkomurder

IsRussiareadyforanewreset?

TreasuryDepartmentofficialsaysPutiniscorrupt

MoreonFriedzonsallegationsagainstPutin(PetrovandtheSpanishcase)

InterviewwiththejournalistwhointerviewedFriedzon(PutinmovedhismoneytoHongKong?)

SergeyIvanovdefendsPutinandChayka(PeskovreactstoPutincorruptionstory)

PutinspeaksataNationalFront(ONF)foruminStavropol(OnLeninandtheBolsheviksThecollapseoftheUSSRPraising
Kadyrov)

PutinslamsLeninforplantinganatomicbombthateventuallybroughtaboutcollapse

TVRainsaystheKremlinisirritatedwithKadyrov(Kadyrovhaspresentedtheoppositionwithanopportunity)

VEBsVladimirDmitriyevmetwithPutinandkepthisjob

Realwagesfell9.5%in2015

LavrovonGermanysmigrantrapestory

NotesonNotes(Litvinenko)

Seeyesterdaystake

AcoupleofanglestotheLitvinenkocasethatshouldbeincluded.First,fromthe9June2007notes.Ane-mailIreceivedfroma
readersomeonewhohadknownLitvinenko:

[AyearagoRomawastheONLYperson,tothebestofmyknowledge,
onwhomALwascollectinganydirthecouldfind.AtthatstageAL
wantedtoaccuseRomaofcriminalbusinessactivities.ALmentioned
overthephonethathewasdoingthisonhisown-BABwasn'tinvolved
(orsoheclaimed).Bearingthatinmind,ItoldALthatRomawouldhire
thebestlawyersintheworldandALwasthereforetakingabigrisk.AL
neverspoketomeaboutthismatteragain,butwasalwaysveryfriendly
towardsme,andIthoughthehaddroppedtheidea.]

WeshouldntforgetthisstoryaswellfromMarch,2007:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp
dyn/content/article/2007/03/02/AR2007030201679.html

FederalandlocallawenforcementauthoritiesareinvestigatingashootinginPrinceGeorge'sCountythatcritically
injuredaprominentintelligenceexpertwhospecializesintheformerSovietUnion.
PaulJoyal,53,wasshotThursday,fourdaysafterheallegedinatelevisionbroadcastthatthegovernmentof
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinwasinvolvedinthefatalpoisoningofaformerKGBagentinLondon.

LawenforcementsourcesandsourcesclosetoJoyal,whorequestedanonymitybecauseofthesensitivityofthe
case,saidthemotivefortheshootingwasunclear.ButseveralsourcesconfirmedthatFBIinvestigatorsarelooking
intotheincidentbecauseofJoyal'sbackgroundasanintelligenceexpertandhiscommentsabouttheAlexander
Litvinenkocase.

Joyalwasshotbytwomeninthedrivewayofhishouseinthe2300blockofLackawannaStreetinAdelphiabout
7:30p.m.Thursday.TheshootingwasreportedyesterdaybyChannel4.

Theidentityoftheshooterswasunknown,andPrinceGeorge'spolicereleasedfewdetailsabouttheincident.But
sourcesclosetotheinvestigationandtoJoyalsaidtwomenaccostedJoyalashestoodinthedrivewayofhis
home,thenshothimonceinthegroin.

Joyal'swife,whoisanurse,wasathomeatthetimeandrantoassistherhusbandashelaybleedinginthedriveway,
thesourcessaid.Hewastakentoahospital,wherehewasincriticalconditionyesterday.

Thesourcessaiditwasunclearwhetherthegunmenweretryingtorobhim.

Joyal,whohaslongbeenanoutspokencriticofthePutinregime,appearedinasegmenton"DatelineNBC"Sunday
abouttheLitvinenkocase.Litvinenko'sdeathfromradiationpoisoninghascausedwidespreadspeculationthatPutin
andtheRussiangovernmentwereinvolved,becauseLitvinenkowaslookingintothekillingofaRussianjournalist
criticaloftheregime.PutinandKremlinofficialshaverepeatedlydeniedinvolvement.

Inthe"Dateline"interview,JoyalaccusedtheRussiangovernmentofbeingpartofaconspiracytosilenceits
critics.

"AmessagehasbeencommunicatedtoanyonewhowantstospeakoutagainsttheKremlin:'Ifyoudo,nomatter
whoyouare,whereyouare,wewillfindyou,andwewillsilenceyou--inthemosthorriblewaypossible,'"Joyal
said.

Joyal,whoisamemberofthePrinceGeorge'slawenforcementtaskforce,isavicepresidentofNational
Strategies,aWashington-basedgovernmentconsultingfirm.Hefoundedhisowncompanyin1991andestablished
jointventuresintelecommunicationsandairtransportationinRussiaandGeorgia,accordingtothecompany'sWeb
site.

Heiswell-knownforhisexpertiseonintelligenceandterrorismandforhisnetworkoffriendsintheformerSoviet
Union,andhepublishedadailyintelligencenewsletterfor10yearsthatofferedinformationontheformerSoviet
Union.In1998,hewasalobbyistfortheGeorgiangovernmentinWashington.
Kashin/VenediktovontheLitvinenkomurder

Kashin:http://slon.ru/posts/62944

IfanyoneamongPutinsopponentsthinksthattheLitvinenkostorywillhaveanimpactonVVPsrating,theybetterthinkagain.
Forstarters,VenediktovhassaidhecantimaginePutinapportioningpoloniumforLugovoyandsendinghimalongonhistask.*
Foranotherthing,thenotionthatyoucantkillhasitslimits.Youcantkill,buttheFSBcanyoucantkill,buttheAmericanskill
peopletheythinkareterroristswithdronesyoucantkill,butLitvinenko,afterall,knewwhathewasdoing.Lookingforthelimit
thatvlastcantgobeyondintheeyesofRussiansocietyislikelookingforthephilosophersstone
*Venediktov(http://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalnovash/1698980-echo/)saidthattheOwenreportstatedthatPutin
probablyknewthatPatrushevknewsoitsnotproved,therearesomedoubts.Inacriminaltrial,thatmeansthedefendant
wouldbeacquitted.Inacivilcase,thereisnoguiltyornotguilty.VenediktovaddsthathessureKovtunandLugovoy
knowinglypoisonedLitvinenko.DidPutincallinLugovoyandtellhimHeressomepolonium,goandkillLitvinenko?Noway,
Putinistoocautiousforthat.Sure,PutinwastoldthatLitvinenkowasaBritishagentandthathewasattemptingtodiscreditVVP
personally.AnditseasytoimaginethatatsomepointPutinsaidtoPatrushev,Dosomething.Andtheydid.Wastherean
order?DosthatmakePutinguilty?
WeneedtoseewhatkindoforderdidObamagiveonbinLadinandothers?KennedyonCastro?Atonepoint,Venediktov
sayshecanimagineascenariolikethisaKGB-FSBveteransorganizationgetsanorderandtheFSB,atthelevelof,say,a
deputydirector,gavethemlogisticalhelpHesaysheisthinkingofHenryIIscommentsonsomeoneriddinghimofacertain
troublesomepriest,ThomasBecket.Henrydidpenancetherestofhislife,notthinkingthathehadgivenanordertokillthepriest
(Comment:OK.ButPutinhatedLitvinenko,Ithinkthatsareasonableassumptiontomake.Idoubthellbedoing
anypenance).RegardingLugovoyandhisdeputymandate,awardsandsoonWedontsurrenderourown,itsthat
simple.ThatdoesntmeanPutinapprovedthemurderitsanhesanSOB,butourSOBsituation.Thepresidentis
responsibleforeverythingthathappensonhiswatch,soinacertainsense,heisresponsible.ThepeoplewhokilledPolitkovskaya
andNemtsovthoughttheyweregivingPutinapresent.

IsRussiareadyforanewreset?

http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-01-26/2_red.html

NezavisimayaGazetamentionsbothKerryandtheFrenchEconomicsMinistersayingatDavosthatsanctionscouldberemoved
inthenextfewmonthsiftheMinskagreementsarefulfilled(Seethe25Januarynotes).HillaryClintonstalkofanewresetis
alsomentioned.ItspossibletheycouldbepreparingpublicopinionforaturnaroundinrelationswithRussia.Itwouldnotsurprise
anyoneifsanctionsareliftedbysummerandnotlongago,themoodwasoneofanewColdWar.

ButareRussianvlastandRussiansocietyreadyforthat?StatepropagandahasgonefarinprojectinganimageofRussiaas
surroundedbyenemies.ButTVcouldsimplyexplainthattheWesthasnotbeenabletobreakRussia,sotheshiftcouldbebrought
onwithouttoomuchdamage.TheremovalofsanctionscouldbeplayedasavictoryfortheRussianpresidentandademonstration
ofthepeoplesresolve,indifferenteventotheexchangerate.

Itfollowsthattheanti-sanctionswouldhavetogoaswellinsuchascenariobutwhataboutimportsubstitution,whichhas
benefittedsomeinRussia?Aretheyreadyforthat?AnotherbeneficiaryofanewColdWaristhemilitaryandmilitaryindustry
Inaperiodofopenconflict,cuttingthemilitarybudgetisoutofthequestion,butifrelationsarewarmer,thenthevoicesofthose
callingforcutswillbelouder.

TheremovalofsanctionswouldalsomeanthatMoscow,atleasttemporarily,wouldbemorecautiousinannouncingitsgeo-
politicalambitions.Undersuchconditions,itsnotclearwhattheprospectsfortheideologuesoftheRusskiymir,whichaspired
tobecomethenationalidea,wouldbe.IftheRusskiymirideaanditsproponentsareshelved,itsnotcertaintheywouldgo
alongwiththatquietly.Theyhelpedformedtheconsensusaroundvlastinthelastcoupleofyearsiftheygo,alongwith
sanctions,thenanewconsensuswillhavetobeformed.

TreasuryDepartmentofficialsaysPutiniscorrupt

http://www.businessinsider.com/rtreasuryofficialcallsrussiasputincorruptbbc20161

AU.S.TreasuryofficialsaidtheUnitedStatesconsidersRussianPresidentVladimirPutintobecorruptand
thatithasknownthisfor"many,manyyears,"theBBCreportedonMonday.

AdamSzubin,actingTreasurysecretaryforterrorismandfinancialcrimes,saidinaninterviewwithBBC
PanoramathattheRussianpresidenthasbeenamassingsecretwealth.

"We'veseenhimenrichinghisfriends,hisclosealliesandmarginalizingthosewhohedoesn'tviewasfriends
usingstateassets.Whetherthat'sRussia'senergywealth,whetherit'sotherstatecontracts,hedirectsthoseto
whomhebelieveswillservehimandexcludesthosewhodon't.Tome,thatisapictureofcorruption,"Szubin
wasquotedassaying.

TheBBCreportsaidSzubindeclinedtocommentona2007CentralIntelligenceAgencyreportthatestimated
Putin'swealthat$40billion,buthesaidtheRussianleader'sstatedwealthisanunderestimation.Comment:
ThatwasBelkovskiysestimateofPutinswealthbasedontheassetsBelkovskiysaidPutin
controlled,butdidntformallyown.Thatcomesupagaininapieceonthisstorypostedon
newsru:http://newsru.com/world/25jan2016/putin_corrupt.html

ThenewsrupiecealsomentionsallegationsmadebyMaksimFriedzonseebelow.*

"Hesupposedlydrawsastatesalaryofsomethinglike$110,000ayear,"Szubinsaid."Thatisnotanaccurate
statementoftheman'swealth,andhehaslongtimetrainingandpracticesintermsofhowtomaskhisactual
wealth."

TheKremlinhasdeniedsuchallegations.Forhispart,Putinhasrepeatedlysaidthathehasreadpressreports
abouthisimmensewealth,includingthathewaseventheworld'srichestman,buthehasdeniedthosereports
asnonsense.

Putin'spublicfinancialdisclosuresdepictamanofmodestmeans.InApril,Putindeclared2014incomeof7.65
millionroubles($119,000).Helistedtheownershipoftwomodestapartmentsandashareinacarparking
garage.

TheUnitedStateshasplacedsanctionsonanumberofRussianbusinessmenloyaltoPutinaspartofitsdrive
toputpressureonRussiaforitsinterventioninUkraine.

InMarch2014,theU.S.TreasuryDepartmenttiedPutintoprofitsfromoneofthesanctionedbusinessmen,
GennadyTimchenko,along-timePutinacquaintanceandthenco-ownerofGunvor,whichtradesnearly3
percentoftheworld'soil.

"TimchenkoactivitiesintheenergysectorhavebeendirectlylinkedtoPutin.PutinhasinvestmentsinGunvor
andmayhaveaccesstoGunvorfunds,"thedepartmentsaidinastatementannouncingthesanctions.

Geneva-basedGunvor,whichhasnotbeensanctioned,deniedtheallegationsintheTreasurystatement.
"PresidentPutindoesnotandneverhashadanyownership,beneficialorotherwise,inGunvor.Heisnota
beneficiaryofGunvororitsactivities,"companyspokesmanSethThomasPietrassaidinanemail.

TheBBCreportcamejustdaysafteraBritishinquiryconcludedthatPutinlikelyapproveda2006Russian
intelligenceoperationtomurderex-KGBagentAlexanderLitvinenkowithradioactivepolonium-210in
London.

*Fromthe8June2015notes:

[MoreonFriedzonsallegationsagainstPutin(PetrovandtheSpanishcase)

Fromthe27Maynotes:

[MaksimFreidzon(whohasashadypasthimself),istryingtosueLukoilandGazpromunderanti-racketeeringlawsinNewYork(forallegedly
stealingsharesinoilcompaniesheonceheld).HetalkedwithRadioLibertyaboutPutinandcorruption/crimein90sSt.Petersburg.Theitemhas
sincebeendeleted:http://www.svoboda.org/content/article/27031833.html

OneofhisbusinessesatthetimewasaprogramforprovidingweaponsforpoliceofficersthatinvolvedbusinesstiestotheUnitedStatessohe
haddealingswithPutinwhenVVPworkedunderMayorSobchak:Putinwasinchargeofexternaleconomicrelations,butFreidzonnotesthatPutin
wasoverseeinglawenforcementaswell.FreidzonclaimshebribedPutintogetbusinesshedidnotgivethemoneytohimdirectly,itwent
throughAlekseyMiller,whowasworkingforPutinatthetime(1993).Freidzonclaimshepaid$10,000foralicensetodevelopweaponsforpolice
buttheChechenwarpromptednewlawstighteningrestrictionsonweaponsandtheprojectgroundtoahalt.HisfuelexportcompanySovekswas
registeredwithPutinsexternaleconomicsdepartmentin1995(Freidzonnotesthatitprovidedgasolineforthecityaswell).Putingot4%ofthe
operation.TimchenkoandhiscompanyKinekswereinvolved.TheTambovmobsVladimirKumarin(Comment:AKABarsukov)hadahandin
thebusinessaswell.SoPutin,Kumarin,andTimchenkowerepartofacollective(hedropssomeothernamesofthoseinthecollective
SergeyVasilyev,IlyaTraber,andDmitriySkiginFreidzonsaysPutinandKumarinhadworkingrelations)thatcontrolledthefuelbusinessinSt.
Petersburg.FreidzonsaysthateverybodycalledTimchenkogangrenebehindhisbackoncehegotin,gangrenewouldconsume
everything

OfficialsinthemayorsofficelivedoffofbribesFreidzonnotesasymbiosisbetweengangstersandtheKGB,andsaysPutinwasanexample
ofthatWealsogetsomebitsaboutsomeofFreidzonspartnersbeingconnectedtotheBankofNewYorkmoneylaunderingscandalandastory
aboutMillersconnectionstothestruggleovertheSt.Petersburgport,astrugglethatincludedtheassassinationofregionalViceGovernor
MikhailManevichin1997(FreidzonsaysthatPutinwasthePetersburgteamsrepresentativeinthesaleoftheport)

AfterSobchaklostare-electionbidinSt.Petersburg,PutinwenttoMoscowFreidzonsaysVVPwasnominatedbytheLeningradOblast
Chekists,whowantedtotaketheirmantotheend,thatis,tomakehimpresidentOneofthemenFreidzonclaimswasinvolvedintakingover
SovekswasagoodfriendofPutins,ViktorKorytovPutin,saysFreidzon,hasamoneyfetishweshouldnotforget,hesays,thatAmericans
aregivingmoneytoVVPthroughLukoilgasstationsinNewYork(nevertheless,FreidzonsaysheisnotnamingPutininhislawsuit,since,as
Russianpresident,hestillenjoysimmunity.IfandwhenVVPlosesthat,FriedzonsayshewillbesimplyoneofmanywhowillwantPutininjail).
FreidzongoesontodescribePutinasaSovietmanwhohadlostanyunderstandingofgoodandevil(Comment:FromwhatIgather,Freidzon
wasnoprize,either).Putin,hesays,joinedtheChekiststoprotecthimselfmoneywassomethingthatcouldprotecthimfromall
unpleasantness(Comment:BelkovskiyhasdescribedPutinandhisentourageaspeoplewhounderstandeverythingintermsofmoney
RussiahasaMoneyocracy,accordingtoBelkovskiy).]

Ifollowedupwiththisitemfromthe3Junenotes:

[InterviewwiththejournalistwhointerviewedFriedzon(PutinmovedhismoneytoHongKong?)

ThejournalistisAnastasiaKirilenko

http://ehorussia.com/new/node/10995

ShesaysthatshehasbeenlookingatPutinspastforsometimeshemetwithotherpeoplebesidesFreidzonThesurprisingthingwasnotthe
bribeFreidzonclaimedPutinrecieved,thatsroutine,butthatPutinwantedapieceofbusinesses.ThesanctionsagainstpeoplelikeTimchenkoare
reallydirectedatPutinVVPsassociatescontrolbusinessesforhim.AtthetimePutinworkedfortheSt.Petersburgmayorsoffice,itwasdifficult
toavoidcontactwithorganizedcrime,butPutingavepreferencestotheSt.PetersburgFuelCompany,controlledbyTambovmobsterVladimir
KumarinPutinownedsharesinSPAGinGermany,asdidTambovgangsters,andthatcompanywasimplicatedinmoneylaunderingandnarco-
trafficking.WhenPutinheadedtheFSB,hesentateamtoSt.Petersburgtoseekoutanddestroyevidenceofthis(Comment:Atthetime,there
werestoriesofPutintryingtogothroughtheLubyankaarchives,lookingforkompromatonhimself)PutinusedoldStasiconnectionsin
businesslikeMatthaisWarnig

KirilenkosaystherehasbeensomeprogressinWesterninvestigationsofTimchenkoandRotenbergthatswhatpromptedtheinterestof
WesternmediaandthequestionsaddressedtoPutinabouthisconnectionstoorganizedcrime,Timchenko,andtherest(Seethe22and27May
notes)KirilenkothinksthatbothLitvinekoandNemtsovwerekilledbecauseoftheirinvestigationsintotheactivitiesofPutinandhiscircle
Nemtsov,forinstance,wrotethatPutinandKabayeva,togetherwithTimchenko,flewtoPutinspalaceontheBlackSeaonTimchenkosprivate
jetShethinksNemtsovhadmoreinformationthatwouldembarrasstheKremlinonconnectionsbetweenthespecialservicesandorganized
crime,forinstance

BeforesanctionswereannouncedagainstRussia,KirilenkosaystherewasalargeoutflowofcapitalfromEuropetoHongKong.Shesuspectsthat
moneycontrolledbyPutinsfriends,moneythatwasde-factoVVPs,wasmovedtoHongKongaswell.ThatswhyPutinhasbeensoconfident
thatsanctionswouldnothaveanybigimpactTheinterviewerbringsupMalofeyevandhisinvolvementineventsinUkraineKirilenkosayshe
isclosetoPutin,notintheinnercircle,butcloseenough.MalofeyevfinancesaTVstationthatinsistsRussiaandUkraineareone.Hesoneof
thosewhofinancedtheseparatists,butthemainculpritforafuturetribunalisPutin,noneofwhathappenedwouldhavebeenpossiblewithouthim
(shealsonamesVladimirYakuninasfinancingtheseparatistsandCrimeasAksenov,throughYakuninsOrthodoxFoundations)Kirilenkoends
bysayingthereisprobablynodocumentationthatYakuninsRussianRailwaystransportedweaponsthatwereusedinEasternUkraine,though
shethinksitprobablydid]

http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/06/08/595560-s-kem-prihodilos-vesti-dela-vladimiru-
putinu#!/galleries/140737492291355/normal/1

RomanShleynovgoesbackoveralotofthegroundcoveredinthearticlesabove,notingaswelltheroleofGennadiyPetrov(seethe4and5June
notes)inSt.PetersburgatthetimeFreidzonsayshewasmakingdealswithPutinandinvolvedwiththecollectivehementionedintheRadio
Libertypiece.Shleynov,forinstance,notesthatKumarinbecamedeputyheadofthePetersburgFuelCompany(PTK)inthelate90s
structuresconnectedwithPetrovwereamongthecompanysco-owners.PTKwasaco-ownerofthePetersburgOilTerminalalsoco-ownedby
SkiginandVasilyev.Stillotherco-ownersincludedthePetersburgportandfirmsconnectedtoTraber,Skigin,andPetrov.

WealsogetabitmorefromShleynovonthematerialintheSpanishinvestigationonPetrovscontactswithRussiaofficials.Hementions,among
otherthings,aPetrovtelephonecalltoformerBastrykindeputyIgorSobelevskiy(heeventuallyresignedSobelevskiywasalawschoolclassmate
ofPutinandBastrykin)regardingalandplotandPetrovallegedlyhelpingformerCommunicationsMinisterReymanacquireaSpanishvilla.We
alsogetaclaimmadebackin2008aboutPutinbeingconnectedtoSotrama,acompanyownedbySkiginSotramaownedanoiltradingfirm,
HorizonInternationalTrading.ShleynovreportsthatPutin,whileworkingintheSt.Petersburgmayorsoffice,madeanumberofdecisionsthat
wereadvantageoustoSoveks,theSt.PetersburgOilTerminal,andPTK.

PutinspokesmanPeskov,whenaskedabouttheseaccusations,saidthatPutinsdecisionsmadewhileheworkedforSobchakwereroutine.Of
course,PutinknewthosepeopletheywerebusinessmeninvolvedinexternaltransactionsandthatwasPutinsresponsibility.Therestis
nonsense.NeitherPutin,norhisbossatthetime,Sobchak,saidPeskov,werethekindofpeoplewhowouldbendforanybody,including
criminals

ThisgraphicwasincludedintheShlyenovpiece:

Comment:recallaswelltherecentkompromatdumponPutinrelatedtohisconnectionstoorganizedcrime.Seethe
notesfrom7January.

SergeyIvanovdefendsPutinandChayka(PeskovreactstoPutincorruptionstory)

http://echo.msk.ru/news/1701278-echo.html

IvanovcalledtheclaimfromtheUSTreasuryDepartmentthatPutiniscorruptafantasyandslander

RegardingChayka,IvanovdidntthinkmuchofthechargesagainsthimmadebyNavalniysAnti-CorruptionFoundation,butsaid
vlastwasreadytolisteniftheoppositioncameupwithanyconcreteevidenceofofficialcorruption:
http://echo.msk.ru/news/1701248-echo.html

PeskovsreactiontothePutincorruptionstory:http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/us-official-accuses-putin-of-
corruption/556877.html

TheKremlindismissedtheaccusations.Noneofthesequestionsorissuesneedtobeanswered,astheyarepure
fiction,Putin'sspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaidwhentheBBCaskedhimtocommentontheaccusations.

OnTuesday,PeskovcalledtheU.S.Treasury'sstatementanofficialaccusationthatdemandsproof,becausethe
voicingofsuchaccusationsbysuchagenciesastheU.S.Treasurywithoutactualevidencecastsashadowonthisvery
agency,theRIANovostinewsagencyreported.

PutinspeaksataNationalFront(ONF)foruminStavropol(OnLeninandtheBolsheviksThecollapseoftheUSSR
PraisingKadyrov)

Recallthisitemfromthe21Januarynotes:

[PutinslamsLeninforplantinganatomicbombthateventuallybroughtaboutcollapse
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=556490PresidentVladimirPutinonThursdayblamedBolshevikrevolutionaryVladimirLenin
forplantingtheideasthatledtothecollapseoftheSovietUnion,theInterfaxnewsagencyreported.

DuringameetingofthePresidentialCouncilforScienceandEducation,oneoftheattendeesquotedapoembyBorisPasternak
describingLeninassomeonewhohadmanagedtheflowofhisthoughtstorulethecountry.

Lettingyourrulebeguidedbythoughtsisright,butonlywhenthatidealeadstotherightresults,notlikeitdidwithVladimirIlich,
Putinquippedinreply.IntheendthatidealedtothefalloftheSovietUnion,headded.

Thereweremanysuchideasasprovidingregionswithautonomy,andsoon.Theyplantedanatomicbombunderthebuildingthatis
calledRussiawhichlaterexploded.Wedidnotneedaglobalrevolution,hesaid.

PutinhasinthepastfamouslydescribedthefalloftheSovietUnionasthegreatestgeopoliticalcatastropheofthetwentiethcentury.]

FollowingPutinscomments,Yevkurov,whoheadsIngushetia,saidthatLeninshouldberemovedfromtheRedSquare
mausoleumandburied:http://www.newsru.com/russia/22jan2016/evkurov_lenin.html

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51206

PutinisaskedabouthisattitudetoLeninandwhatabouttakinghimoutofthemausoleumandburyinghim?Putindoesnot
answerthatquestion,butissharplycriticaloftheBolsheviksfortheexecutionoftheTsarandhisfamily(andwhataboutthe
peoplewhoworkedforthem,peopleofproletarianorigins?),theexecutionsofROCpriests,andtheroleoftheBolsheviksin
underminingthewareffortatthefront,alldoneforthesakeofachievingpower.TheeconomywaswreckedbytheBolsheviks,so
LeninhadtoinstitutetheNewEconomicPolicy.True,theplannedeconomyallowedforaconcentrationofeffortsandresources,
industrialization,thereweresomepluses.Butintheend,theinabilitytoinnovateandchangemeantthecollapseoftheeconomy.

LeninplantedadelayedactionmineundertheUSSR.Lenin,inhisdiscussionswithStalin,supportedtherightofSovietrepublics
tojoinandwithdrawfromtheUSSR.Thebordersweremarkedarbitrarily.WhatwasthebasisfortransferringtheDonbassto
Ukraine,forinstance?Simplytoincreasetheproletariatpartofthepopulation.Andthereareotherexamples.Sotheconstruction
oftheSovietstate,alongwithineffectivemanagement,botheconomicallyandsocially,eventuallyledtothecollapseofthestate.
YetPutinsaysatonepointthatunlikesomeothers,whentheSovietUnionwascollapsing,hekepthisCPSUmembershipcard.

Putin,inanexchangewithanONFmemberfromChechnya,praisedtheeffectiveworkofRamzanKadyrov.Heexpressed
somecautiousoptimismabouttheeconomy(adecreasinginflationrate,apositivetradebalance,lowerthanexpectedbudget
deficit),andtalkedaboutpartnerandallyChinaseconomicproblemsasbeingabigcauseofthedeclineinoilprices.The
ONF,hesaid,couldaidinhelpingbroadeneconomicfreedomandincombattingcorruption.

OnSyria,PutinsaidthatRussiahadnoplanstointerfereintheinternalaffairsofthatcountry,butwouldfighttoliquidateterrorism
there(Comment:Putin,inhisinternalaffairsremark,wasprobablythinkingofthestorywesawofhisallegedly
askingAssadtostepasidelatelastyear.Seethe22Januarynotes).

TVRainsaystheKremlinisirritatedwithKadyrov(Kadyrovhaspresentedtheoppositionwithanopportunity)

http://tvrain.ru/news/istochnik_dozhdja_v_administratsii_prezidenta_razdrazheny_dejstvijami_rukovodstva_chechni-402418/

ThePresidentialAdministrationisreportedlyirritatedwithKadyrovoverhisverbalattacksontheoppositionandthemassmeeting
insupportofKadyrovstagedinGrozny(Seethe22Januarynotes)PAofficialsthinktheshowismeanttopresstheKremlinnot
tocutsubsidiestoChechnya.

Meanwhile,MikhailKomin,writingatslon.ru,saysthatKadyrovandcompanysanticsplayintothehandsoftheopposition:
http://slon.ru/posts/62888ThesloganKadyrovisRussiasshameandthemessagethatKadyrovandhisassociatesplantoact
asPutinsoprichninaandspreadChechentyperulealloverRussiacouldbeapowerfulforceformobilizationthatmayunitethe
nuclearoppositionsupporterswithcentralRussia,theliberalflankofthegovernment,andeventhenationalists.

VEBsVladimirDmitriyevmetwithPutinandkepthisjob
http://freenews.xyz/2016/01/26/mediadmitrievwillremainattheheadofvebthequestionofhispossible
resignationiscleared/
MOSCOW,January26.TheChairmanofVnesheconombank(VEB)VladimirDmitrievretainedhispost,hisresignationisno
longeraquestion.Dmitrievon18JanuarymetwithPresidentVladimirPutin,whoconfirmedthepowersoftheChairmanof
VEBandpromisedsupport,reportsthenewspaperVedomostireferringtotwosourcesfromtheCorporation.

Themeetingtookplace.Currentissueswerediscussed,confirmedthePresidentspressSecretary,DmitryPeskov,
thoughherefusedtogivedetails.

RumorsaboutthepossibleresignationofDmitrievintensifiedattheendofNovember2015,whenaquestionaroseabout
thepossiblerescueofthebank.DmitrievsaidthatVEBobligationsrequired1.3trillionrublesofgovernmentsupportupto
2020.

AccordingtothelawaboutthedevelopmentBankitsChairmanisdismissedbythedecreeofthePresidentonthe
recommendationofthePrimeMinister,whoheadstheSupervisoryBoardofVEB.But,accordingtoMedvedevsPress
Secretary,thereisnorecommendationthatDmitrievleavehispost.

MeasurestosupportVEBwillbediscussedatameetingwithPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevon3February,accordingtoa
federalofficial.

Realwagesfell9.5%in2015

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russians-real-wages-fall-95-in-2015/556842.html

AsRussia'sinflationreacheddouble-digitslastyear,Russianssawtheirrealwagesdeclineby9.5percentcompared
to2014,datapublishedbytheRosstatstatestatisticsserviceshowedMonday.

InDecember2015,realwagesofRussiansdropped10percentwhencomparedtothesamemonthin2014,according
toRosstatdata.TheaveragemonthlysalaryinRussialastyearwas30,311rubles($381).

Averagerealincomesapartfromwagesthatincludeprivateincomesandstatepayoutsfell4percentlastyear
whencomparedto2014,Rosstatsaid.

ThesharpdeclineinearningshaveforcedalotofRussianstoslashtheirdailyspending.

AccordingtothefindingsofthepollconductedintheendofDecember2015bystate-runpollsterVTsIOM,63percent
ofRussiansrestrainedfrompurchasingcertaingoodsintheprevioussixmonthsorboughtthemlessoften.

Fifty-ninepercentofrespondentssaidtheyswitchedtocheapergoodsand26percentofRussiansstartedtospendtheir
personalsavingsondailyneeds,theInterfaxnewsagencyreported,citingtheresultsofthepoll.

LavrovonGermanysmigrantrapestory

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russias-lavrov-urges-germany-to-deal-with-migrant-rape-
allegations/556897.html

RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovhasurgedGermanynottosweepundertheruganincidentinvolvinga13-year
oldgirlinBerlinwhowasreportedlymissingfor30hours,theTASSnewsagencyreportedTuesday.

Wehopethattherewillbenomoreincidentslikethisone,LavrovwasquotedbytheInterfaxnewsagencyassaying.
LavrovaddedthatMoscowwasnowworkingwiththefamily'slawyerandthathesaidthatitisclearthatthegirlcouldnot
voluntarilydisappearfor30hours,Interfaxreported.

Earlierthismonth,thefamilyinquestionclaimedthattheirdaughterofRussiandescenthadbeenkidnapped,heldfor30
hoursandrapedbythreemigrantsinBerlin,Russianmediareportedatthetime.

Berlinpolicedidnotfindanyevidenceofkidnaporrapeandtheincidentisbeinginvestigatedbyprosecutors.

TheincidentcausedoutrageinGermany'sRussiancommunityandresultedinademonstrationneartheofficeof
GermanChancellorAngelaMerkel.

Therallywasattendedbyabout700RussianslivinginGermany.

Onemore:http://www.dw.com/en/russia-wants-explanation-over-germanys-handling-of-teen-rape-case/a-19005535

RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovdemandedafullexplanationfromGermanauthoritiesduringhisannual
addressonTuesday,sayingitwasclearthe13-year-olddidn't"voluntarilydisappearfor30hours."
"Theinformationwascoveredupforaverylongtimeduringherdisappearanceforsomereason,"Lavrovsaidduring
thepressconferenceinMoscow.
ThestudentfromBerlin-Marzahn,identifiedonlyasLisa,wasreportedmissingonJanuary11.Sheresurfacedaround
30hourslaterandfiledapolicereportclaimingtohavebeenabductedbythreemenatarailwaystationineastern
Berlin.Shewasallegedlytakentoanapartmentwhereshewasbeatenandsexuallyassaulted.AccordingtoGerman
media,theteendescribedthemenascomingfrom"southerncountriesandspeakingbrokenGerman."
Germanpolicehaverepeatedlystatedtherewasnoevidenceofkidnappingorrape.MartinSteltner,aspokesmanfor
theprosecutor'soffice,toldBerlin'sRBBpublicradioonMondaytherewereonlyindicationsof"consensualsexual
contact."Hedidn'tcommentonwhethertheofficewouldinvestigateallegedperpetratorsforhavingsexwithaminor,
whichcanbepunishablebylaw.

Thecasehassparkedoutrage,withRussianmediaandmembersofthefarrightaccusingpoliceofattemptingto
coverupcrimescommittedbyrefugees.SomehavealsodrawncomparisonswithGermanpolice'sinitialsilenceafter
sexattacksonhundredsofwomeninCologneonNewYear'sEve.Mostofthoseassaultswereallegedlycommittedby
menofNorthAfricanandAraborigin.
Inhisaddress,Lavrovsaidhehoped"migrationproblems"wouldn'tdriveauthoritiesto"paintoverrealitywith
politicalcorrectness."
"Truthandjusticemustprevail,"hesaid,addingthatMoscowwasworkingwiththegirl'slawyer,herfamilyandthe
Russianembassy.
Inthedaysfollowingthegirl'sdisappearance,RussianTVclaimedshewasheldfor30hoursasasexslavebyseveral
foreigners.Thepro-KremlinchannelNTVwentsofarastosaythat"inGermanyandinSweden,residentsare
regularlyrapedbyrefugeesbutthelocalauthoritiesandpolicehidethesefactsanddonotopencriminal
investigations."
ThecasepromptedhundredsofRussianGermanstoprotestinBerlinovertheweekend,callingfortheirchildrentobe
protectedfrom"migrantviolence."Theywerebackedbysupportersof"Brgida,"theBerlinbranchofthePegida
movement.
Morethan1millionasylumseekersarrivedinGermanylastyearandChancellorAngelaMerkelhascomeunder
growingpressureoverherwelcomingstancetorefugees.

From: KatrinavandenHeuvel<emails@emails.thenation.com>
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IN26Jan16.docx

Internet Notes 26 January 2016


Notes on Notes (Litvinenko) ......................................................................................................... 1
Kashin/Venediktov on the Litvinenko murder ............................................................................. 3
Is Russia ready for a new reset? .............................................................................................. 3
Treasury Department official says Putin is corrupt .................................................................. 4
More on Friedzons allegations against Putin (Petrov and the Spanish case) .............................. 6
Interview with the journalist who interviewed Friedzon (Putin moved his money to Hong Kong?)
......................................................................................................................................................... 7
Sergey Ivanov defends Putin and Chayka (Peskov reacts to Putin corruption story) ................ 9
Putin speaks at a National Front (ONF) forum in Stavropol (On Lenin and the Bolsheviks;
The collapse of the USSR; Praising Kadyrov) ......................................................................... 10
Putin slams Lenin for planting an atomic bomb that eventually brought about collapse ........ 10
TV Rain says the Kremlin is irritated with Kadyrov (Kadyrov has presented the opposition
with an opportunity) .................................................................................................................. 11
VEBs Vladimir Dmitriyev met with Putinand kept his job ............................................... 11
Real wages fell 9.5% in 2015 .................................................................................................... 12
Lavrov on Germanys migrant rape story................................................................................ 13

Notes on Notes (Litvinenko)

See yesterdays take


A couple of angles to the Litvinenko case that should be included. First, from the 9 June 2007
notes. An e-mail I received from a readersomeone who had known Litvinenko:
[A year ago Roma was the ONLY person, to the best of my knowledge,
on whom AL was collecting any dirt he could find. At that stage AL
wanted to accuse Roma of criminal business activities. AL mentioned
over the phone that he was doing this on his own - BAB wasn't involved
(or so he claimed). Bearing that in mind, I told AL that Roma would hire
the best lawyers in the world and AL was therefore taking a big risk. AL
never spoke to me about this matter again, but was always very friendly
towards me, and I thought he had dropped the idea.]

We shouldnt forget this story as wellfrom March, 2007: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-


dyn/content/article/2007/03/02/AR2007030201679.html
IN26Jan16.docx

Federal and local law enforcement authorities are investigating a shooting in Prince George's
County that critically injured a prominent intelligence expert who specializes in the former
Soviet Union.

Paul Joyal, 53, was shot Thursday, four days after he alleged in a television broadcast that
the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin was involved in the fatal poisoning of a
former KGB agent in London.

Law enforcement sources and sources close to Joyal, who requested anonymity because of
the sensitivity of the case, said the motive for the shooting was unclear. But several sources
confirmed that FBI investigators are looking into the incident because of Joyal's background
as an intelligence expert and his comments about the Alexander Litvinenko case.

Joyal was shot by two men in the driveway of his house in the 2300 block of Lackawanna
Street in Adelphi about 7:30 p.m. Thursday. The shooting was reported yesterday by Channel
4.

The identity of the shooters was unknown, and Prince George's police released few details
about the incident. But sources close to the investigation and to Joyal said two men accosted
Joyal as he stood in the driveway of his home, then shot him once in the groin.

Joyal's wife, who is a nurse, was at home at the time and ran to assist her husband as he lay
bleeding in the driveway, the sources said. He was taken to a hospital, where he was in
critical condition yesterday.

The sources said it was unclear whether the gunmen were trying to rob him.

Joyal, who has long been an outspoken critic of the Putin regime, appeared in a segment on
"Dateline NBC" Sunday about the Litvinenko case. Litvinenko's death from radiation
poisoning has caused widespread speculation that Putin and the Russian government were
involved, because Litvinenko was looking into the killing of a Russian journalist critical of
the regime. Putin and Kremlin officials have repeatedly denied involvement.

In the "Dateline" interview, Joyal accused the Russian government of being part of a
conspiracy to silence its critics.

"A message has been communicated to anyone who wants to speak out against the Kremlin:
'If you do, no matter who you are, where you are, we will find you, and we will silence you -
- in the most horrible way possible,' " Joyal said.

Joyal, who is a member of the Prince George's law enforcement task force, is a vice president
of National Strategies, a Washington-based government consulting firm. He founded his own
company in 1991 and established joint ventures in telecommunications and air transportation
in Russia and Georgia, according to the company's Web site.
IN26Jan16.docx

He is well-known for his expertise on intelligence and terrorism and for his network of
friends in the former Soviet Union, and he published a daily intelligence newsletter for 10
years that offered information on the former Soviet Union. In 1998, he was a lobbyist for the
Georgian government in Washington.

Kashin/Venediktov on the Litvinenko murder


Kashin: https://slon.ru/posts/62944

If anyone among Putins opponents thinks that the Litvinenko story will have an impact on
VVPs rating, they better think again. For starters, Venediktov has said he cant imagine Putin
apportioning polonium for Lugovoy and sending him along on his task.* For another thing, the
notion that you cant kill has its limits. You cant kill, but the FSB can; you cant kill, but the
Americans kill people they think are terrorists with drones; you cant kill, but Litvinenko, after
all, knew what he was doing. Looking for the limit that vlast cant go beyond in the eyes of
Russian society is like looking for the philosophers stone
*Venediktov (http://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalnovash/1698980-echo/ ) said that the Owen
report stated that Putin probably knew that Patrushev knewso its not proved, there are some
doubts. In a criminal trial, that means the defendant would be acquitted. In a civil case, there is
no guilty or not guilty. Venediktov adds that hes sure Kovtun and Lugovoy knowingly
poisoned Litvinenko. Did Putin call in Lugovoy and tell him Heres some polonium, go and
kill Litvinenko? No way, Putin is too cautious for that. Sure, Putin was told that Litvinenko
was a British agent and that he was attempting to discredit VVP personally. And its easy to
imagine that at some point Putin said to Patrushev, Do something. And they did. Was there
an order? Dos that make Putin guilty?
We need to seewhat kind of order did Obama give on bin Ladin and others? Kennedy on
Castro? At one point, Venediktov says he can imagine a scenario like thisa KGB-FSB
veterans organization gets an order and the FSB, at the level of, say, a deputy director, gave them
logistical helpHe says he is thinking of Henry IIs comments on someone ridding him of a
certain troublesome priest, Thomas Becket. Henry did penance the rest of his life, not thinking
that he had given an order to kill the priest (Comment: OK. But Putin hated Litvinenko, I
think thats a reasonable assumption to make. I doubt hell be doing any penance).
Regarding Lugovoy and his deputy mandate, awards and so onWe dont surrender our
own, its that simple. That doesnt mean Putin approved the murderits an hes an SOB, but
our SOB situation. The president is responsible for everything that happens on his watch, so in
a certain sense, he is responsible. The people who killed Politkovskaya and Nemtsov thought
they were giving Putin a present.

Is Russia ready for a new reset?

http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-01-26/2_red.html

Nezavisimaya Gazeta mentions both Kerry and the French Economics Minister saying at Davos
that sanctions could be removed in the next few months if the Minsk agreements are fulfilled
IN26Jan16.docx

(See the 25 January notes). Hillary Clintons talk of a new reset is also mentioned. Its
possible they could be preparing public opinion for a turnaround in relations with Russia. It
would not surprise anyone if sanctions are lifted by summerand not long ago, the mood was
one of a new Cold War.
But are Russian vlast and Russian society ready for that? State propaganda has gone far in
projecting an image of Russia as surrounded by enemies. But TV could simply explain that the
West has not been able to break Russia, so the shift could be brought on without too much
damage. The removal of sanctions could be played as a victory for the Russian president and a
demonstration of the peoples resolve, indifferent even to the exchange rate.
It follows that the anti-sanctions would have to go as well in such a scenariobut what about
import substitution, which has benefitted some in Russia? Are they ready for that? Another
beneficiary of a new Cold War is the military and military industryIn a period of open conflict,
cutting the military budget is out of the question, but if relations are warmer, then the voices of
those calling for cuts will be louder.
The removal of sanctions would also mean that Moscow, at least temporarily, would be more
cautious in announcing its geo-political ambitions. Under such conditions, its not clear what the
prospects for the ideologues of the Russkiy mir, which aspired to become the national idea,
would be. If the Russkiy mir ideaand its proponentsare shelved, its not certain they would
go along with that quietly. They helped formed the consensus around vlast in the last couple of
yearsif they go, along with sanctions, then a new consensus will have to be formed.

Treasury Department official says Putin is corrupt

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-treasury-official-calls-russias-putin-corrupt-bbc-2016-1

A U.S. Treasury official said the United States considers Russian President Vladimir
Putin to be corrupt and that it has known this for "many, many years," the BBC reported
on Monday.

Adam Szubin, acting Treasury secretary for terrorism and financial crimes, said in an
interview with BBC Panorama that the Russian president has been amassing secret
wealth.

"We've seen him enriching his friends, his close allies and marginalizing those who he
doesn't view as friends using state assets. Whether that's Russia's energy wealth,
whether it's other state contracts, he directs those to whom he believes will serve him
and excludes those who don't. To me, that is a picture of corruption," Szubin was quoted
as saying.
IN26Jan16.docx

The BBC report said Szubin declined to comment on a 2007 Central Intelligence Agency
report that estimated Putin's wealth at $40 billion, but he said the Russian leader's
stated wealth is an underestimation. Comment: That was Belkovskiys estimate of
Putins wealth based on the assets Belkovskiy said Putin controlled, but didnt
formally own. That comes up again in a piece on this story posted on newsru:
http://newsru.com/world/25jan2016/putin_corrupt.html

The newsru piece also mentions allegations made by Maksim Friedzonsee


below.*

"He supposedly draws a state salary of something like $110,000 a year," Szubin said.
"That is not an accurate statement of the man's wealth, and he has longtime training
and practices in terms of how to mask his actual wealth."

The Kremlin has denied such allegations. For his part, Putin has repeatedly said that he
has read press reports about his immense wealth, including that he was even the world's
richest man, but he has denied those reports as nonsense.

Putin's public financial disclosures depict a man of modest means. In April, Putin
declared 2014 income of 7.65 million roubles ($119,000). He listed the ownership of two
modest apartments and a share in a car parking garage.

The United States has placed sanctions on a number of Russian businessmen loyal to
Putin as part of its drive to put pressure on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine.

In March 2014, the U.S. Treasury Department tied Putin to profits from one of the
sanctioned businessmen, Gennady Timchenko, a long-time Putin acquaintance and then
co-owner of Gunvor, which trades nearly 3 percent of the world's oil.

"Timchenko activities in the energy sector have been directly linked to Putin. Putin has
investments in Gunvor and may have access to Gunvor funds," the department said in a
statement announcing the sanctions.

Geneva-based Gunvor, which has not been sanctioned, denied the allegations in the
Treasury statement. "President Putin does not and never has had any ownership,
IN26Jan16.docx

beneficial or otherwise, in Gunvor. He is not a beneficiary of Gunvor or its activities,"


company spokesman Seth Thomas Pietras said in an email.

The BBC report came just days after a British inquiry concluded that Putin likely
approved a 2006 Russian intelligence operation to murder ex-KGB agent Alexander
Litvinenko with radioactive polonium-210 in London.

*From the 8 June 2015 notes:

[More on Friedzons allegations against Putin (Petrov and the Spanish case)

From the 27 May notes:

[Maksim Freidzon (who has a shady past himself), is trying to sue Lukoil and Gazprom under anti-racketeering laws
in New York (for allegedly stealing shares in oil companies he once held). He talked with Radio Liberty about Putin
and corruption/crime in 90s St. Petersburg. The item has since been deleted:
http://www.svoboda.org/content/article/27031833.html

One of his businesses at the time was a program for providing weapons for police officers that involved business ties
to the United Statesso he had dealings with Putin when VVP worked under Mayor Sobchak: Putin was in charge
of external economic relations, but Freidzon notes that Putin was overseeing law enforcement as well. Freidzon
claims he bribed Putin to get businesshe did not give the money to him directly, it went through Aleksey Miller,
who was working for Putin at the time (1993). Freidzon claims he paid $10,000 for a license to develop weapons for
policebut the Chechen war prompted new laws tightening restrictions on weapons and the project ground to a halt.
His fuel export company Soveks was registered with Putins external economics department in 1995 (Freidzon notes
that it provided gasoline for the city as well). Putin got 4% of the operation. Timchenko and his company Kineks
were involved. The Tambov mobs Vladimir Kumarin (Comment: AKA Barsukov) had a hand in the business
as well. So Putin, Kumarin, and Timchenko were part of a collective (he drops some other names of those in the
collectiveSergey Vasilyev, Ilya Traber, and Dmitriy Skigin; Freidzon says Putin and Kumarin had working
relations) that controlled the fuel business in St. Petersburg. Freidzon says that everybody called Timchenko
gangrene behind his backonce he got in, gangrene would consume everything

Officials in the mayors office lived off of bribesFreidzon notes a symbiosis between gangsters and the KGB,
and says Putin was an example of thatWe also get some bits about some of Freidzons partners being connected
to the Bank of New York money laundering scandal and a story about Millers connections to the struggle over the
St. Petersburg port, a struggle that included the assassination of regional Vice Governor Mikhail Manevich in 1997
(Freidzon says that Putin was the Petersburg teams representative in the sale of the port)

After Sobchak lost a re-election bid in St. Petersburg, Putin went to MoscowFreidzon says VVP was nominated
by the Leningrad Oblast Chekists, who wanted to take their man to the end, that is, to make him presidentOne
of the men Freidzon claims was involved in taking over Soveks was a good friend of Putins, Viktor
IN26Jan16.docx

KorytovPutin, says Freidzon, has a money fetishwe should not forget, he says, that Americans are giving
money to VVP through Lukoil gas stations in New York (nevertheless, Freidzon says he is not naming Putin in his
lawsuit, since, as Russian president, he still enjoys immunity. If and when VVP loses that, Friedzon says he will
be simply one of many who will want Putin in jail). Freidzon goes on to describe Putin as a Soviet man who had
lost any understanding of good and evil (Comment: From what I gather, Freidzon was no prize, either). Putin,
he says, joined the Chekists to protect himselfmoney was something that could protect him from all
unpleasantness (Comment: Belkovskiy has described Putin and his entourage as people who understand
everything in terms of moneyRussia has a Moneyocracy, according to Belkovskiy).]

I followed up with this item from the 3 June notes:

[Interview with the journalist who interviewed Friedzon (Putin moved his money to Hong Kong?)

The journalist is Anastasia Kirilenko

http://ehorussia.com/new/node/10995

She says that she has been looking at Putins past for some timeshe met with other people besides
FreidzonThe surprising thing was not the bribe Freidzon claimed Putin recieved, thats routine, but that Putin
wanted a piece of businesses. The sanctions against people like Timchenko are really directed at PutinVVPs
associates control businesses for him. At the time Putin worked for the St. Petersburg mayors office, it was
difficult to avoid contact with organized crime, but Putin gave preferences to the St. Petersburg Fuel Company,
controlled by Tambov mobster Vladimir KumarinPutin owned shares in SPAG in Germany, as did Tambov
gangsters, and that company was implicated in money laundering and narco-trafficking. When Putin headed the
FSB, he sent a team to St. Petersburg to seek out and destroy evidence of this (Comment: At the time, there were
stories of Putin trying to go through the Lubyanka archives, looking for kompromat on himself)Putin used old
Stasi connections in businesslike Matthais Warnig

Kirilenko says there has been some progress in Western investigations of Timchenko and Rotenbergthats what
prompted the interest of Western media and the questions addressed to Putin about his connections to organized
crime, Timchenko, and the rest (See the 22 and 27 May notes)Kirilenko thinks that both Litvineko and Nemtsov
were killed because of their investigations into the activities of Putin and his circleNemtsov, for instance, wrote
that Putin and Kabayeva, together with Timchenko, flew to Putins palace on the Black Sea on Timchenkos
private jetShe thinks Nemtsov had more information that would embarrass the Kremlinon connections
between the special services and organized crime, for instance

Before sanctions were announced against Russia, Kirilenko says there was a large outflow of capital from Europe to
Hong Kong. She suspects that money controlled by Putins friends, money that was de-facto VVPs, was moved to
Hong Kong as well. Thats why Putin has been so confident that sanctions would not have any big impactThe
interviewer brings up Malofeyev and his involvement in events in UkraineKirilenko says he is close to Putin, not
in the inner circle, but close enough. Malofeyev finances a TV station that insists Russia and Ukraine are one. Hes
one of those who financed the separatists, but the main culprit for a future tribunal is Putin, none of what
happened would have been possible without him (she also names Vladimir Yakunin as financing the separatists
and Crimeas Aksenov, through Yakunins Orthodox Foundations)Kirilenko ends by saying there is probably no
IN26Jan16.docx

documentation that Yakunins Russian Railways transported weapons that were used in Eastern Ukraine, though
she thinks it probably did]

http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/06/08/595560-s-kem-prihodilos-vesti-dela-
vladimiru-putinu#!/galleries/140737492291355/normal/1

Roman Shleynov goes back over a lot of the ground covered in the articles above, noting as well the role of
Gennadiy Petrov (see the 4 and 5 June notes) in St. Petersburg at the time Freidzon says he was making deals with
Putin and involved with the collective he mentioned in the Radio Liberty piece. Shleynov, for instance, notes that
Kumarin became deputy head of the Petersburg Fuel Company (PTK) in the late 90sstructures connected with
Petrov were among the companys co-owners. PTK was a co-owner of the Petersburg Oil Terminal also co-owned
by Skigin and Vasilyev. Still other co-owners included the Petersburg port and firms connected to Traber, Skigin,
and Petrov.

We also get a bit more from Shleynov on the material in the Spanish investigation on Petrovs contacts with Russia
officials. He mentions, among other things, a Petrov telephone call to former Bastrykin deputy Igor Sobelevskiy (he
eventually resigned; Sobelevskiy was a law school classmate of Putin and Bastrykin) regarding a land plot and
Petrov allegedly helping former Communications Minister Reyman acquire a Spanish villa. We also get a claim
made back in 2008 about Putin being connected to Sotrama, a company owned by SkiginSotrama owned an oil
trading firm, Horizon International Trading. Shleynov reports that Putin, while working in the St. Petersburg
mayors office, made a number of decisions that were advantageous to Soveks, the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, and
PTK.

Putin spokesman Peskov, when asked about these accusations, said that Putins decisions made while he worked for
Sobchak were routine. Of course, Putin knew those peoplethey were businessmen involved in external
transactions and that was Putins responsibility. The rest is nonsense. Neither Putin, nor his boss at the time,
Sobchak, said Peskov, were the kind of people who would bend for anybody, including criminals

This graphic was included in the Shlyenov piece:


IN26Jan16.docx

Comment: recall as well the recent kompromat dump on Putin related to his connections to
organized crime. See the notes from 7 January.

Sergey Ivanov defends Putin and Chayka (Peskov reacts to Putin corruption story)

http://echo.msk.ru/news/1701278-echo.html

Ivanov called the claim from the US Treasury Department that Putin is corrupt a fantasy and
slander

Regarding Chayka, Ivanov didnt think much of the charges against him made by Navalniys
Anti-Corruption Foundation, but said vlast was ready to listen if the opposition came up with any
concrete evidence of official corruption: http://echo.msk.ru/news/1701248-echo.html

Peskovs reaction to the Putin corruption story:


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/us-official-accuses-putin-of-
corruption/556877.html

The Kremlin dismissed the accusations. None of these questions or issues need to be
answered, as they are pure fiction, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when the BBC
asked him to comment on the accusations.

On Tuesday, Peskov called the U.S. Treasury's statement an official accusation that
demands proof, because the voicing of such accusations by such agencies as the U.S.
IN26Jan16.docx

Treasury without actual evidence casts a shadow on this very agency, the RIA Novosti
news agency reported.

Putin speaks at a National Front (ONF) forum in Stavropol (On Lenin and the Bolsheviks;
The collapse of the USSR; Praising Kadyrov)

Recall this item from the 21 January notes:

[Putin slams Lenin for planting an atomic bomb that eventually brought about collapse
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=556490 President Vladimir Putin on Thursday blamed
Bolshevik revolutionary Vladimir Lenin for planting the ideas that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union,
the Interfax news agency reported.

During a meeting of the Presidential Council for Science and Education, one of the attendees quoted a
poem by Boris Pasternak describing Lenin as someone who had managed the flow of his thoughts to rule
the country.

Letting your rule be guided by thoughts is right, but only when that idea leads to the right results, not like
it did with Vladimir Ilich, Putin quipped in reply. In the end that idea led to the fall of the Soviet Union, he
added.

There were many such ideas as providing regions with autonomy, and so on. They planted an atomic
bomb under the building that is called Russia which later exploded. We did not need a global revolution,
he said.

Putin has in the past famously described the fall of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical
catastrophe of the twentieth century.]

Following Putins comments, Yevkurov, who heads Ingushetia, said that Lenin should be
removed from the Red Square mausoleum and buried:
http://www.newsru.com/russia/22jan2016/evkurov_lenin.html

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51206

Putin is asked about his attitude to Leninand what about taking him out of the mausoleum and
burying him? Putin does not answer that question, but is sharply critical of the Bolsheviks for
the execution of the Tsar and his family (and what about the people who worked for them,
IN26Jan16.docx

people of proletarian origins?), the executions of ROC priests, and the role of the Bolsheviks in
undermining the war effort at the front, all done for the sake of achieving power. The economy
was wrecked by the Bolsheviks, so Lenin had to institute the New Economic Policy. True, the
planned economy allowed for a concentration of efforts and resources, industrialization, there
were some pluses. But in the end, the inability to innovate and change meant the collapse of the
economy.

Lenin planted a delayed action mine under the USSR. Lenin, in his discussions with Stalin,
supported the right of Soviet republics to join and withdraw from the USSR. The borders were
marked arbitrarily. What was the basis for transferring the Donbass to Ukraine, for instance?
Simply to increase the proletariat part of the population. And there are other examples. So the
construction of the Soviet state, along with ineffective management, both economically and
socially, eventually led to the collapse of the state. Yet Putin says at one point that unlike some
others, when the Soviet Union was collapsing, he kept his CPSU membership card.

Putin, in an exchange with an ONF member from Chechnya, praised the effective work of
Ramzan Kadyrov. He expressed some cautious optimism about the economy (a decreasing
inflation rate, a positive trade balance, lower than expected budget deficit), and talked about
partner and ally Chinas economic problems as being a big cause of the decline in oil prices.
The ONF, he said, could aid in helping broaden economic freedom and in combatting corruption.

On Syria, Putin said that Russia had no plans to interfere in the internal affairs of that country,
but would fight to liquidate terrorism there (Comment: Putin, in his internal affairs
remark, was probably thinking of the story we saw of his allegedly asking Assad to step
aside late last year. See the 22 January notes).

TV Rain says the Kremlin is irritated with Kadyrov (Kadyrov has presented the opposition with
an opportunity)

https://tvrain.ru/news/istochnik_dozhdja_v_administratsii_prezidenta_razdrazheny_dejstvijami_rukovods
tva_chechni-402418/

The Presidential Administration is reportedly irritated with Kadyrov over his verbal attacks on
the opposition and the mass meeting in support of Kadyrov staged in Grozny (See the 22 January
notes)PA officials think the show is meant to press the Kremlin not to cut subsidies to
Chechnya.

Meanwhile, Mikhail Komin, writing at slon.ru, says that Kadyrov and companys antics play into
the hands of the opposition: https://slon.ru/posts/62888 The slogan Kadyrov is Russias shame
and the message that Kadyrov and his associates plan to act as Putins oprichnina and spread
Chechen type rule all over Russia could be a powerful force for mobilization that may unite the
nuclear opposition supporters with central Russia, the liberal flank of the government, and
even the nationalists.

VEBs Vladimir Dmitriyev met with Putinand kept his job


IN26Jan16.docx

http://freenews.xyz/2016/01/26/media-dmitriev-will-remain-at-the-head-of-veb-the-
question-of-his-possible-resignation-is-cleared/
MOSCOW, January 26. The Chairman of Vnesheconombank (VEB) Vladimir Dmitriev retained his
post, his resignation is no longer a question. Dmitriev on 18 January met with President Vladimir
Putin, who confirmed the powers of the Chairman of VEB and promised support, reports the
newspaper Vedomosti referring to two sources from the Corporation.

The meeting took place. Current issues were discussed, confirmed the Presidents press
Secretary, Dmitry Peskov, though he refused to give details.

Rumors about the possible resignation of Dmitriev intensified at the end of November 2015, when a
question arose about the possible rescue of the bank. Dmitriev said that VEB obligations required
1.3 trillion rubles of government support up to 2020.

According to the law about the development Bank its Chairman is dismissed by the decree of the
President on the recommendation of the Prime Minister, who heads the Supervisory Board of VEB.
But, according to Medvedevs Press Secretary, there is no recommendation that Dmitriev leave his
post.

Measures to support VEB will be discussed at a meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on 3
February, according to a federal official.

Real wages fell 9.5% in 2015


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russians-real-wages-fall-95-in-2015/556842.html

As Russia's inflation reached double-digits last year, Russians saw their real wages decline
by 9.5 percent compared to 2014, data published by the Rosstat state statistics service
showed Monday.

In December 2015, real wages of Russians dropped 10 percent when compared to the
same month in 2014, according to Rosstat data. The average monthly salary in Russia last
year was 30,311 rubles ($381).

Average real incomes apart from wages that include private incomes and state payouts
fell 4 percent last year when compared to 2014, Rosstat said.

The sharp decline in earnings have forced a lot of Russians to slash their daily spending.
IN26Jan16.docx

According to the findings of the poll conducted in the end of December 2015 by state-run
pollster VTsIOM, 63 percent of Russians restrained from purchasing certain goods in the
previous six months or bought them less often.

Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they switched to cheaper goods and 26 percent
of Russians started to spend their personal savings on daily needs, the Interfax news
agency reported, citing the results of the poll.

Lavrov on Germanys migrant rape story

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russias-lavrov-urges-germany-to-deal-with-
migrant-rape-allegations/556897.html

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has urged Germany not to sweep under the rug
an incident involving a 13-year old girl in Berlin who was reportedly missing for 30 hours,
the TASS news agency reported Tuesday.

We hope that there will be no more incidents like this one, Lavrov was quoted by the
Interfax news agency as saying.

Lavrov added that Moscow was now working with the family's lawyer and that he said that it
is clear that the girl could not voluntarily disappear for 30 hours, Interfax reported.

Earlier this month, the family in question claimed that their daughter of Russian descent had
been kidnapped, held for 30 hours and raped by three migrants in Berlin, Russian media
reported at the time.

Berlin police did not find any evidence of kidnap or rape and the incident is being
investigated by prosecutors.

The incident caused outrage in Germany's Russian community and resulted in a


demonstration near the office of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The rally was attended by about 700 Russians living in Germany.


One more: http://www.dw.com/en/russia-wants-explanation-over-germanys-handling-of-
teen-rape-case/a-19005535

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov demanded a full explanation from German
authorities during his annual address on Tuesday, saying it was clear the 13-year-old didn't
"voluntarily disappear for 30 hours."
IN26Jan16.docx

"The information was covered up for a very long time during her disappearance for some
reason," Lavrov said during the press conference in Moscow.
The student from Berlin-Marzahn, identified only as Lisa, was reported missing on January
11. She resurfaced around 30 hours later and filed a police report claiming to have been
abducted by three men at a railway station in eastern Berlin. She was allegedly taken to an
apartment where she was beaten and sexually assaulted. According to German media, the
teen described the men as coming from "southern countries and speaking broken German."
German police have repeatedly stated there was no evidence of kidnapping or rape. Martin
Steltner, a spokesman for the prosecutor's office, told Berlin's RBB public radio on Monday
there were only indications of "consensual sexual contact." He didn't comment on whether
the office would investigate alleged perpetrators for having sex with a minor, which can be
punishable by law.

The case has sparked outrage, with Russian media and members of the far right accusing
police of attempting to cover up crimes committed by refugees. Some have also drawn
comparisons with German police's initial silence after sex attacks on hundreds of women in
Cologne on New Year's Eve. Most of those assaults were allegedly committed by men of
North African and Arab origin.
In his address, Lavrov said he hoped "migration problems" wouldn't drive authorities to
"paint over reality with political correctness."
"Truth and justice must prevail," he said, adding that Moscow was working with the girl's
lawyer, her family and the Russian embassy.
In the days following the girl's disappearance, Russian TV claimed she was held for 30 hours
as a sex slave by several foreigners. The pro-Kremlin channel NTV went so far as to say that
"in Germany and in Sweden, residents are regularly raped by refugees but the local
authorities and police hide these facts and do not open criminal investigations."
The case prompted hundreds of Russian Germans to protest in Berlin over the weekend,
calling for their children to be protected from "migrant violence." They were backed by
supporters of "Brgida," the Berlin branch of the Pegida movement.
More than 1 million asylum seekers arrived in Germany last year and Chancellor Angela
Merkel has come under growing pressure over her welcoming stance to refugees.
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 01/26/201612:01:12PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes26January2016
Attachments: IN26Jan16.docx

InternetNotes26January2016

NotesonNotes(Litvinenko)

Kashin/VenediktovontheLitvinenkomurder

IsRussiareadyforanewreset?

TreasuryDepartmentofficialsaysPutiniscorrupt

MoreonFriedzonsallegationsagainstPutin(PetrovandtheSpanishcase)

InterviewwiththejournalistwhointerviewedFriedzon(PutinmovedhismoneytoHongKong?)

SergeyIvanovdefendsPutinandChayka(PeskovreactstoPutincorruptionstory)

PutinspeaksataNationalFront(ONF)foruminStavropol(OnLeninandtheBolsheviksThecollapseoftheUSSRPraising
Kadyrov)

PutinslamsLeninforplantinganatomicbombthateventuallybroughtaboutcollapse

TVRainsaystheKremlinisirritatedwithKadyrov(Kadyrovhaspresentedtheoppositionwithanopportunity)

VEBsVladimirDmitriyevmetwithPutinandkepthisjob

Realwagesfell9.5%in2015

LavrovonGermanysmigrantrapestory

NotesonNotes(Litvinenko)

Seeyesterdaystake

AcoupleofanglestotheLitvinenkocasethatshouldbeincluded.First,fromthe9June2007notes.Ane-mailIreceivedfroma
readersomeonewhohadknownLitvinenko:

[AyearagoRomawastheONLYperson,tothebestofmyknowledge,
onwhomALwascollectinganydirthecouldfind.AtthatstageAL
wantedtoaccuseRomaofcriminalbusinessactivities.ALmentioned
overthephonethathewasdoingthisonhisown-BABwasn'tinvolved
(orsoheclaimed).Bearingthatinmind,ItoldALthatRomawouldhire
thebestlawyersintheworldandALwasthereforetakingabigrisk.AL
neverspoketomeaboutthismatteragain,butwasalwaysveryfriendly
towardsme,andIthoughthehaddroppedtheidea.]

WeshouldntforgetthisstoryaswellfromMarch,2007:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp
dyn/content/article/2007/03/02/AR2007030201679.html

FederalandlocallawenforcementauthoritiesareinvestigatingashootinginPrinceGeorge'sCountythatcritically
injuredaprominentintelligenceexpertwhospecializesintheformerSovietUnion.
PaulJoyal,53,wasshotThursday,fourdaysafterheallegedinatelevisionbroadcastthatthegovernmentof
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinwasinvolvedinthefatalpoisoningofaformerKGBagentinLondon.

LawenforcementsourcesandsourcesclosetoJoyal,whorequestedanonymitybecauseofthesensitivityofthe
case,saidthemotivefortheshootingwasunclear.ButseveralsourcesconfirmedthatFBIinvestigatorsarelooking
intotheincidentbecauseofJoyal'sbackgroundasanintelligenceexpertandhiscommentsabouttheAlexander
Litvinenkocase.

Joyalwasshotbytwomeninthedrivewayofhishouseinthe2300blockofLackawannaStreetinAdelphiabout
7:30p.m.Thursday.TheshootingwasreportedyesterdaybyChannel4.

Theidentityoftheshooterswasunknown,andPrinceGeorge'spolicereleasedfewdetailsabouttheincident.But
sourcesclosetotheinvestigationandtoJoyalsaidtwomenaccostedJoyalashestoodinthedrivewayofhis
home,thenshothimonceinthegroin.

Joyal'swife,whoisanurse,wasathomeatthetimeandrantoassistherhusbandashelaybleedinginthedriveway,
thesourcessaid.Hewastakentoahospital,wherehewasincriticalconditionyesterday.

Thesourcessaiditwasunclearwhetherthegunmenweretryingtorobhim.

Joyal,whohaslongbeenanoutspokencriticofthePutinregime,appearedinasegmenton"DatelineNBC"Sunday
abouttheLitvinenkocase.Litvinenko'sdeathfromradiationpoisoninghascausedwidespreadspeculationthatPutin
andtheRussiangovernmentwereinvolved,becauseLitvinenkowaslookingintothekillingofaRussianjournalist
criticaloftheregime.PutinandKremlinofficialshaverepeatedlydeniedinvolvement.

Inthe"Dateline"interview,JoyalaccusedtheRussiangovernmentofbeingpartofaconspiracytosilenceits
critics.

"AmessagehasbeencommunicatedtoanyonewhowantstospeakoutagainsttheKremlin:'Ifyoudo,nomatter
whoyouare,whereyouare,wewillfindyou,andwewillsilenceyou--inthemosthorriblewaypossible,'"Joyal
said.

Joyal,whoisamemberofthePrinceGeorge'slawenforcementtaskforce,isavicepresidentofNational
Strategies,aWashington-basedgovernmentconsultingfirm.Hefoundedhisowncompanyin1991andestablished
jointventuresintelecommunicationsandairtransportationinRussiaandGeorgia,accordingtothecompany'sWeb
site.

Heiswell-knownforhisexpertiseonintelligenceandterrorismandforhisnetworkoffriendsintheformerSoviet
Union,andhepublishedadailyintelligencenewsletterfor10yearsthatofferedinformationontheformerSoviet
Union.In1998,hewasalobbyistfortheGeorgiangovernmentinWashington.
Kashin/VenediktovontheLitvinenkomurder

Kashin:http://slon.ru/posts/62944

IfanyoneamongPutinsopponentsthinksthattheLitvinenkostorywillhaveanimpactonVVPsrating,theybetterthinkagain.
Forstarters,VenediktovhassaidhecantimaginePutinapportioningpoloniumforLugovoyandsendinghimalongonhistask.*
Foranotherthing,thenotionthatyoucantkillhasitslimits.Youcantkill,buttheFSBcanyoucantkill,buttheAmericanskill
peopletheythinkareterroristswithdronesyoucantkill,butLitvinenko,afterall,knewwhathewasdoing.Lookingforthelimit
thatvlastcantgobeyondintheeyesofRussiansocietyislikelookingforthephilosophersstone
*Venediktov(http://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalnovash/1698980-echo/)saidthattheOwenreportstatedthatPutin
probablyknewthatPatrushevknewsoitsnotproved,therearesomedoubts.Inacriminaltrial,thatmeansthedefendant
wouldbeacquitted.Inacivilcase,thereisnoguiltyornotguilty.VenediktovaddsthathessureKovtunandLugovoy
knowinglypoisonedLitvinenko.DidPutincallinLugovoyandtellhimHeressomepolonium,goandkillLitvinenko?Noway,
Putinistoocautiousforthat.Sure,PutinwastoldthatLitvinenkowasaBritishagentandthathewasattemptingtodiscreditVVP
personally.AnditseasytoimaginethatatsomepointPutinsaidtoPatrushev,Dosomething.Andtheydid.Wastherean
order?DosthatmakePutinguilty?
WeneedtoseewhatkindoforderdidObamagiveonbinLadinandothers?KennedyonCastro?Atonepoint,Venediktov
sayshecanimagineascenariolikethisaKGB-FSBveteransorganizationgetsanorderandtheFSB,atthelevelof,say,a
deputydirector,gavethemlogisticalhelpHesaysheisthinkingofHenryIIscommentsonsomeoneriddinghimofacertain
troublesomepriest,ThomasBecket.Henrydidpenancetherestofhislife,notthinkingthathehadgivenanordertokillthepriest
(Comment:OK.ButPutinhatedLitvinenko,Ithinkthatsareasonableassumptiontomake.Idoubthellbedoing
anypenance).RegardingLugovoyandhisdeputymandate,awardsandsoonWedontsurrenderourown,itsthat
simple.ThatdoesntmeanPutinapprovedthemurderitsanhesanSOB,butourSOBsituation.Thepresidentis
responsibleforeverythingthathappensonhiswatch,soinacertainsense,heisresponsible.ThepeoplewhokilledPolitkovskaya
andNemtsovthoughttheyweregivingPutinapresent.

IsRussiareadyforanewreset?

http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-01-26/2_red.html

NezavisimayaGazetamentionsbothKerryandtheFrenchEconomicsMinistersayingatDavosthatsanctionscouldberemoved
inthenextfewmonthsiftheMinskagreementsarefulfilled(Seethe25Januarynotes).HillaryClintonstalkofanewresetis
alsomentioned.ItspossibletheycouldbepreparingpublicopinionforaturnaroundinrelationswithRussia.Itwouldnotsurprise
anyoneifsanctionsareliftedbysummerandnotlongago,themoodwasoneofanewColdWar.

ButareRussianvlastandRussiansocietyreadyforthat?StatepropagandahasgonefarinprojectinganimageofRussiaas
surroundedbyenemies.ButTVcouldsimplyexplainthattheWesthasnotbeenabletobreakRussia,sotheshiftcouldbebrought
onwithouttoomuchdamage.TheremovalofsanctionscouldbeplayedasavictoryfortheRussianpresidentandademonstration
ofthepeoplesresolve,indifferenteventotheexchangerate.

Itfollowsthattheanti-sanctionswouldhavetogoaswellinsuchascenariobutwhataboutimportsubstitution,whichhas
benefittedsomeinRussia?Aretheyreadyforthat?AnotherbeneficiaryofanewColdWaristhemilitaryandmilitaryindustry
Inaperiodofopenconflict,cuttingthemilitarybudgetisoutofthequestion,butifrelationsarewarmer,thenthevoicesofthose
callingforcutswillbelouder.

TheremovalofsanctionswouldalsomeanthatMoscow,atleasttemporarily,wouldbemorecautiousinannouncingitsgeo-
politicalambitions.Undersuchconditions,itsnotclearwhattheprospectsfortheideologuesoftheRusskiymir,whichaspired
tobecomethenationalidea,wouldbe.IftheRusskiymirideaanditsproponentsareshelved,itsnotcertaintheywouldgo
alongwiththatquietly.Theyhelpedformedtheconsensusaroundvlastinthelastcoupleofyearsiftheygo,alongwith
sanctions,thenanewconsensuswillhavetobeformed.

TreasuryDepartmentofficialsaysPutiniscorrupt

http://www.businessinsider.com/rtreasuryofficialcallsrussiasputincorruptbbc20161

AU.S.TreasuryofficialsaidtheUnitedStatesconsidersRussianPresidentVladimirPutintobecorruptand
thatithasknownthisfor"many,manyyears,"theBBCreportedonMonday.

AdamSzubin,actingTreasurysecretaryforterrorismandfinancialcrimes,saidinaninterviewwithBBC
PanoramathattheRussianpresidenthasbeenamassingsecretwealth.

"We'veseenhimenrichinghisfriends,hisclosealliesandmarginalizingthosewhohedoesn'tviewasfriends
usingstateassets.Whetherthat'sRussia'senergywealth,whetherit'sotherstatecontracts,hedirectsthoseto
whomhebelieveswillservehimandexcludesthosewhodon't.Tome,thatisapictureofcorruption,"Szubin
wasquotedassaying.

TheBBCreportsaidSzubindeclinedtocommentona2007CentralIntelligenceAgencyreportthatestimated
Putin'swealthat$40billion,buthesaidtheRussianleader'sstatedwealthisanunderestimation.Comment:
ThatwasBelkovskiysestimateofPutinswealthbasedontheassetsBelkovskiysaidPutin
controlled,butdidntformallyown.Thatcomesupagaininapieceonthisstorypostedon
newsru:http://newsru.com/world/25jan2016/putin_corrupt.html

ThenewsrupiecealsomentionsallegationsmadebyMaksimFriedzonseebelow.*

"Hesupposedlydrawsastatesalaryofsomethinglike$110,000ayear,"Szubinsaid."Thatisnotanaccurate
statementoftheman'swealth,andhehaslongtimetrainingandpracticesintermsofhowtomaskhisactual
wealth."

TheKremlinhasdeniedsuchallegations.Forhispart,Putinhasrepeatedlysaidthathehasreadpressreports
abouthisimmensewealth,includingthathewaseventheworld'srichestman,buthehasdeniedthosereports
asnonsense.

Putin'spublicfinancialdisclosuresdepictamanofmodestmeans.InApril,Putindeclared2014incomeof7.65
millionroubles($119,000).Helistedtheownershipoftwomodestapartmentsandashareinacarparking
garage.

TheUnitedStateshasplacedsanctionsonanumberofRussianbusinessmenloyaltoPutinaspartofitsdrive
toputpressureonRussiaforitsinterventioninUkraine.

InMarch2014,theU.S.TreasuryDepartmenttiedPutintoprofitsfromoneofthesanctionedbusinessmen,
GennadyTimchenko,along-timePutinacquaintanceandthenco-ownerofGunvor,whichtradesnearly3
percentoftheworld'soil.

"TimchenkoactivitiesintheenergysectorhavebeendirectlylinkedtoPutin.PutinhasinvestmentsinGunvor
andmayhaveaccesstoGunvorfunds,"thedepartmentsaidinastatementannouncingthesanctions.

Geneva-basedGunvor,whichhasnotbeensanctioned,deniedtheallegationsintheTreasurystatement.
"PresidentPutindoesnotandneverhashadanyownership,beneficialorotherwise,inGunvor.Heisnota
beneficiaryofGunvororitsactivities,"companyspokesmanSethThomasPietrassaidinanemail.

TheBBCreportcamejustdaysafteraBritishinquiryconcludedthatPutinlikelyapproveda2006Russian
intelligenceoperationtomurderex-KGBagentAlexanderLitvinenkowithradioactivepolonium-210in
London.

*Fromthe8June2015notes:

[MoreonFriedzonsallegationsagainstPutin(PetrovandtheSpanishcase)

Fromthe27Maynotes:

[MaksimFreidzon(whohasashadypasthimself),istryingtosueLukoilandGazpromunderanti-racketeeringlawsinNewYork(forallegedly
stealingsharesinoilcompaniesheonceheld).HetalkedwithRadioLibertyaboutPutinandcorruption/crimein90sSt.Petersburg.Theitemhas
sincebeendeleted:http://www.svoboda.org/content/article/27031833.html

OneofhisbusinessesatthetimewasaprogramforprovidingweaponsforpoliceofficersthatinvolvedbusinesstiestotheUnitedStatessohe
haddealingswithPutinwhenVVPworkedunderMayorSobchak:Putinwasinchargeofexternaleconomicrelations,butFreidzonnotesthatPutin
wasoverseeinglawenforcementaswell.FreidzonclaimshebribedPutintogetbusinesshedidnotgivethemoneytohimdirectly,itwent
throughAlekseyMiller,whowasworkingforPutinatthetime(1993).Freidzonclaimshepaid$10,000foralicensetodevelopweaponsforpolice
buttheChechenwarpromptednewlawstighteningrestrictionsonweaponsandtheprojectgroundtoahalt.HisfuelexportcompanySovekswas
registeredwithPutinsexternaleconomicsdepartmentin1995(Freidzonnotesthatitprovidedgasolineforthecityaswell).Putingot4%ofthe
operation.TimchenkoandhiscompanyKinekswereinvolved.TheTambovmobsVladimirKumarin(Comment:AKABarsukov)hadahandin
thebusinessaswell.SoPutin,Kumarin,andTimchenkowerepartofacollective(hedropssomeothernamesofthoseinthecollective
SergeyVasilyev,IlyaTraber,andDmitriySkiginFreidzonsaysPutinandKumarinhadworkingrelations)thatcontrolledthefuelbusinessinSt.
Petersburg.FreidzonsaysthateverybodycalledTimchenkogangrenebehindhisbackoncehegotin,gangrenewouldconsume
everything

OfficialsinthemayorsofficelivedoffofbribesFreidzonnotesasymbiosisbetweengangstersandtheKGB,andsaysPutinwasanexample
ofthatWealsogetsomebitsaboutsomeofFreidzonspartnersbeingconnectedtotheBankofNewYorkmoneylaunderingscandalandastory
aboutMillersconnectionstothestruggleovertheSt.Petersburgport,astrugglethatincludedtheassassinationofregionalViceGovernor
MikhailManevichin1997(FreidzonsaysthatPutinwasthePetersburgteamsrepresentativeinthesaleoftheport)

AfterSobchaklostare-electionbidinSt.Petersburg,PutinwenttoMoscowFreidzonsaysVVPwasnominatedbytheLeningradOblast
Chekists,whowantedtotaketheirmantotheend,thatis,tomakehimpresidentOneofthemenFreidzonclaimswasinvolvedintakingover
SovekswasagoodfriendofPutins,ViktorKorytovPutin,saysFreidzon,hasamoneyfetishweshouldnotforget,hesays,thatAmericans
aregivingmoneytoVVPthroughLukoilgasstationsinNewYork(nevertheless,FreidzonsaysheisnotnamingPutininhislawsuit,since,as
Russianpresident,hestillenjoysimmunity.IfandwhenVVPlosesthat,FriedzonsayshewillbesimplyoneofmanywhowillwantPutininjail).
FreidzongoesontodescribePutinasaSovietmanwhohadlostanyunderstandingofgoodandevil(Comment:FromwhatIgather,Freidzon
wasnoprize,either).Putin,hesays,joinedtheChekiststoprotecthimselfmoneywassomethingthatcouldprotecthimfromall
unpleasantness(Comment:BelkovskiyhasdescribedPutinandhisentourageaspeoplewhounderstandeverythingintermsofmoney
RussiahasaMoneyocracy,accordingtoBelkovskiy).]

Ifollowedupwiththisitemfromthe3Junenotes:

[InterviewwiththejournalistwhointerviewedFriedzon(PutinmovedhismoneytoHongKong?)

ThejournalistisAnastasiaKirilenko

http://ehorussia.com/new/node/10995

ShesaysthatshehasbeenlookingatPutinspastforsometimeshemetwithotherpeoplebesidesFreidzonThesurprisingthingwasnotthe
bribeFreidzonclaimedPutinrecieved,thatsroutine,butthatPutinwantedapieceofbusinesses.ThesanctionsagainstpeoplelikeTimchenkoare
reallydirectedatPutinVVPsassociatescontrolbusinessesforhim.AtthetimePutinworkedfortheSt.Petersburgmayorsoffice,itwasdifficult
toavoidcontactwithorganizedcrime,butPutingavepreferencestotheSt.PetersburgFuelCompany,controlledbyTambovmobsterVladimir
KumarinPutinownedsharesinSPAGinGermany,asdidTambovgangsters,andthatcompanywasimplicatedinmoneylaunderingandnarco-
trafficking.WhenPutinheadedtheFSB,hesentateamtoSt.Petersburgtoseekoutanddestroyevidenceofthis(Comment:Atthetime,there
werestoriesofPutintryingtogothroughtheLubyankaarchives,lookingforkompromatonhimself)PutinusedoldStasiconnectionsin
businesslikeMatthaisWarnig

KirilenkosaystherehasbeensomeprogressinWesterninvestigationsofTimchenkoandRotenbergthatswhatpromptedtheinterestof
WesternmediaandthequestionsaddressedtoPutinabouthisconnectionstoorganizedcrime,Timchenko,andtherest(Seethe22and27May
notes)KirilenkothinksthatbothLitvinekoandNemtsovwerekilledbecauseoftheirinvestigationsintotheactivitiesofPutinandhiscircle
Nemtsov,forinstance,wrotethatPutinandKabayeva,togetherwithTimchenko,flewtoPutinspalaceontheBlackSeaonTimchenkosprivate
jetShethinksNemtsovhadmoreinformationthatwouldembarrasstheKremlinonconnectionsbetweenthespecialservicesandorganized
crime,forinstance

BeforesanctionswereannouncedagainstRussia,KirilenkosaystherewasalargeoutflowofcapitalfromEuropetoHongKong.Shesuspectsthat
moneycontrolledbyPutinsfriends,moneythatwasde-factoVVPs,wasmovedtoHongKongaswell.ThatswhyPutinhasbeensoconfident
thatsanctionswouldnothaveanybigimpactTheinterviewerbringsupMalofeyevandhisinvolvementineventsinUkraineKirilenkosayshe
isclosetoPutin,notintheinnercircle,butcloseenough.MalofeyevfinancesaTVstationthatinsistsRussiaandUkraineareone.Hesoneof
thosewhofinancedtheseparatists,butthemainculpritforafuturetribunalisPutin,noneofwhathappenedwouldhavebeenpossiblewithouthim
(shealsonamesVladimirYakuninasfinancingtheseparatistsandCrimeasAksenov,throughYakuninsOrthodoxFoundations)Kirilenkoends
bysayingthereisprobablynodocumentationthatYakuninsRussianRailwaystransportedweaponsthatwereusedinEasternUkraine,though
shethinksitprobablydid]

http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/06/08/595560-s-kem-prihodilos-vesti-dela-vladimiru-
putinu#!/galleries/140737492291355/normal/1

RomanShleynovgoesbackoveralotofthegroundcoveredinthearticlesabove,notingaswelltheroleofGennadiyPetrov(seethe4and5June
notes)inSt.PetersburgatthetimeFreidzonsayshewasmakingdealswithPutinandinvolvedwiththecollectivehementionedintheRadio
Libertypiece.Shleynov,forinstance,notesthatKumarinbecamedeputyheadofthePetersburgFuelCompany(PTK)inthelate90s
structuresconnectedwithPetrovwereamongthecompanysco-owners.PTKwasaco-ownerofthePetersburgOilTerminalalsoco-ownedby
SkiginandVasilyev.Stillotherco-ownersincludedthePetersburgportandfirmsconnectedtoTraber,Skigin,andPetrov.

WealsogetabitmorefromShleynovonthematerialintheSpanishinvestigationonPetrovscontactswithRussiaofficials.Hementions,among
otherthings,aPetrovtelephonecalltoformerBastrykindeputyIgorSobelevskiy(heeventuallyresignedSobelevskiywasalawschoolclassmate
ofPutinandBastrykin)regardingalandplotandPetrovallegedlyhelpingformerCommunicationsMinisterReymanacquireaSpanishvilla.We
alsogetaclaimmadebackin2008aboutPutinbeingconnectedtoSotrama,acompanyownedbySkiginSotramaownedanoiltradingfirm,
HorizonInternationalTrading.ShleynovreportsthatPutin,whileworkingintheSt.Petersburgmayorsoffice,madeanumberofdecisionsthat
wereadvantageoustoSoveks,theSt.PetersburgOilTerminal,andPTK.

PutinspokesmanPeskov,whenaskedabouttheseaccusations,saidthatPutinsdecisionsmadewhileheworkedforSobchakwereroutine.Of
course,PutinknewthosepeopletheywerebusinessmeninvolvedinexternaltransactionsandthatwasPutinsresponsibility.Therestis
nonsense.NeitherPutin,norhisbossatthetime,Sobchak,saidPeskov,werethekindofpeoplewhowouldbendforanybody,including
criminals

ThisgraphicwasincludedintheShlyenovpiece:

Comment:recallaswelltherecentkompromatdumponPutinrelatedtohisconnectionstoorganizedcrime.Seethe
notesfrom7January.

SergeyIvanovdefendsPutinandChayka(PeskovreactstoPutincorruptionstory)

http://echo.msk.ru/news/1701278-echo.html

IvanovcalledtheclaimfromtheUSTreasuryDepartmentthatPutiniscorruptafantasyandslander

RegardingChayka,IvanovdidntthinkmuchofthechargesagainsthimmadebyNavalniysAnti-CorruptionFoundation,butsaid
vlastwasreadytolisteniftheoppositioncameupwithanyconcreteevidenceofofficialcorruption:
http://echo.msk.ru/news/1701248-echo.html

PeskovsreactiontothePutincorruptionstory:http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/us-official-accuses-putin-of-
corruption/556877.html

TheKremlindismissedtheaccusations.Noneofthesequestionsorissuesneedtobeanswered,astheyarepure
fiction,Putin'sspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaidwhentheBBCaskedhimtocommentontheaccusations.

OnTuesday,PeskovcalledtheU.S.Treasury'sstatementanofficialaccusationthatdemandsproof,becausethe
voicingofsuchaccusationsbysuchagenciesastheU.S.Treasurywithoutactualevidencecastsashadowonthisvery
agency,theRIANovostinewsagencyreported.

PutinspeaksataNationalFront(ONF)foruminStavropol(OnLeninandtheBolsheviksThecollapseoftheUSSR
PraisingKadyrov)

Recallthisitemfromthe21Januarynotes:

[PutinslamsLeninforplantinganatomicbombthateventuallybroughtaboutcollapse
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=556490PresidentVladimirPutinonThursdayblamedBolshevikrevolutionaryVladimirLenin
forplantingtheideasthatledtothecollapseoftheSovietUnion,theInterfaxnewsagencyreported.

DuringameetingofthePresidentialCouncilforScienceandEducation,oneoftheattendeesquotedapoembyBorisPasternak
describingLeninassomeonewhohadmanagedtheflowofhisthoughtstorulethecountry.

Lettingyourrulebeguidedbythoughtsisright,butonlywhenthatidealeadstotherightresults,notlikeitdidwithVladimirIlich,
Putinquippedinreply.IntheendthatidealedtothefalloftheSovietUnion,headded.

Thereweremanysuchideasasprovidingregionswithautonomy,andsoon.Theyplantedanatomicbombunderthebuildingthatis
calledRussiawhichlaterexploded.Wedidnotneedaglobalrevolution,hesaid.

PutinhasinthepastfamouslydescribedthefalloftheSovietUnionasthegreatestgeopoliticalcatastropheofthetwentiethcentury.]

FollowingPutinscomments,Yevkurov,whoheadsIngushetia,saidthatLeninshouldberemovedfromtheRedSquare
mausoleumandburied:http://www.newsru.com/russia/22jan2016/evkurov_lenin.html

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51206

PutinisaskedabouthisattitudetoLeninandwhatabouttakinghimoutofthemausoleumandburyinghim?Putindoesnot
answerthatquestion,butissharplycriticaloftheBolsheviksfortheexecutionoftheTsarandhisfamily(andwhataboutthe
peoplewhoworkedforthem,peopleofproletarianorigins?),theexecutionsofROCpriests,andtheroleoftheBolsheviksin
underminingthewareffortatthefront,alldoneforthesakeofachievingpower.TheeconomywaswreckedbytheBolsheviks,so
LeninhadtoinstitutetheNewEconomicPolicy.True,theplannedeconomyallowedforaconcentrationofeffortsandresources,
industrialization,thereweresomepluses.Butintheend,theinabilitytoinnovateandchangemeantthecollapseoftheeconomy.

LeninplantedadelayedactionmineundertheUSSR.Lenin,inhisdiscussionswithStalin,supportedtherightofSovietrepublics
tojoinandwithdrawfromtheUSSR.Thebordersweremarkedarbitrarily.WhatwasthebasisfortransferringtheDonbassto
Ukraine,forinstance?Simplytoincreasetheproletariatpartofthepopulation.Andthereareotherexamples.Sotheconstruction
oftheSovietstate,alongwithineffectivemanagement,botheconomicallyandsocially,eventuallyledtothecollapseofthestate.
YetPutinsaysatonepointthatunlikesomeothers,whentheSovietUnionwascollapsing,hekepthisCPSUmembershipcard.

Putin,inanexchangewithanONFmemberfromChechnya,praisedtheeffectiveworkofRamzanKadyrov.Heexpressed
somecautiousoptimismabouttheeconomy(adecreasinginflationrate,apositivetradebalance,lowerthanexpectedbudget
deficit),andtalkedaboutpartnerandallyChinaseconomicproblemsasbeingabigcauseofthedeclineinoilprices.The
ONF,hesaid,couldaidinhelpingbroadeneconomicfreedomandincombattingcorruption.

OnSyria,PutinsaidthatRussiahadnoplanstointerfereintheinternalaffairsofthatcountry,butwouldfighttoliquidateterrorism
there(Comment:Putin,inhisinternalaffairsremark,wasprobablythinkingofthestorywesawofhisallegedly
askingAssadtostepasidelatelastyear.Seethe22Januarynotes).

TVRainsaystheKremlinisirritatedwithKadyrov(Kadyrovhaspresentedtheoppositionwithanopportunity)

http://tvrain.ru/news/istochnik_dozhdja_v_administratsii_prezidenta_razdrazheny_dejstvijami_rukovodstva_chechni-402418/

ThePresidentialAdministrationisreportedlyirritatedwithKadyrovoverhisverbalattacksontheoppositionandthemassmeeting
insupportofKadyrovstagedinGrozny(Seethe22Januarynotes)PAofficialsthinktheshowismeanttopresstheKremlinnot
tocutsubsidiestoChechnya.

Meanwhile,MikhailKomin,writingatslon.ru,saysthatKadyrovandcompanysanticsplayintothehandsoftheopposition:
http://slon.ru/posts/62888ThesloganKadyrovisRussiasshameandthemessagethatKadyrovandhisassociatesplantoact
asPutinsoprichninaandspreadChechentyperulealloverRussiacouldbeapowerfulforceformobilizationthatmayunitethe
nuclearoppositionsupporterswithcentralRussia,theliberalflankofthegovernment,andeventhenationalists.

VEBsVladimirDmitriyevmetwithPutinandkepthisjob
http://freenews.xyz/2016/01/26/mediadmitrievwillremainattheheadofvebthequestionofhispossible
resignationiscleared/
MOSCOW,January26.TheChairmanofVnesheconombank(VEB)VladimirDmitrievretainedhispost,hisresignationisno
longeraquestion.Dmitrievon18JanuarymetwithPresidentVladimirPutin,whoconfirmedthepowersoftheChairmanof
VEBandpromisedsupport,reportsthenewspaperVedomostireferringtotwosourcesfromtheCorporation.

Themeetingtookplace.Currentissueswerediscussed,confirmedthePresidentspressSecretary,DmitryPeskov,
thoughherefusedtogivedetails.

RumorsaboutthepossibleresignationofDmitrievintensifiedattheendofNovember2015,whenaquestionaroseabout
thepossiblerescueofthebank.DmitrievsaidthatVEBobligationsrequired1.3trillionrublesofgovernmentsupportupto
2020.

AccordingtothelawaboutthedevelopmentBankitsChairmanisdismissedbythedecreeofthePresidentonthe
recommendationofthePrimeMinister,whoheadstheSupervisoryBoardofVEB.But,accordingtoMedvedevsPress
Secretary,thereisnorecommendationthatDmitrievleavehispost.

MeasurestosupportVEBwillbediscussedatameetingwithPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevon3February,accordingtoa
federalofficial.

Realwagesfell9.5%in2015

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russians-real-wages-fall-95-in-2015/556842.html

AsRussia'sinflationreacheddouble-digitslastyear,Russianssawtheirrealwagesdeclineby9.5percentcompared
to2014,datapublishedbytheRosstatstatestatisticsserviceshowedMonday.

InDecember2015,realwagesofRussiansdropped10percentwhencomparedtothesamemonthin2014,according
toRosstatdata.TheaveragemonthlysalaryinRussialastyearwas30,311rubles($381).

Averagerealincomesapartfromwagesthatincludeprivateincomesandstatepayoutsfell4percentlastyear
whencomparedto2014,Rosstatsaid.

ThesharpdeclineinearningshaveforcedalotofRussianstoslashtheirdailyspending.

AccordingtothefindingsofthepollconductedintheendofDecember2015bystate-runpollsterVTsIOM,63percent
ofRussiansrestrainedfrompurchasingcertaingoodsintheprevioussixmonthsorboughtthemlessoften.

Fifty-ninepercentofrespondentssaidtheyswitchedtocheapergoodsand26percentofRussiansstartedtospendtheir
personalsavingsondailyneeds,theInterfaxnewsagencyreported,citingtheresultsofthepoll.

LavrovonGermanysmigrantrapestory

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russias-lavrov-urges-germany-to-deal-with-migrant-rape-
allegations/556897.html

RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovhasurgedGermanynottosweepundertheruganincidentinvolvinga13-year
oldgirlinBerlinwhowasreportedlymissingfor30hours,theTASSnewsagencyreportedTuesday.

Wehopethattherewillbenomoreincidentslikethisone,LavrovwasquotedbytheInterfaxnewsagencyassaying.
LavrovaddedthatMoscowwasnowworkingwiththefamily'slawyerandthathesaidthatitisclearthatthegirlcouldnot
voluntarilydisappearfor30hours,Interfaxreported.

Earlierthismonth,thefamilyinquestionclaimedthattheirdaughterofRussiandescenthadbeenkidnapped,heldfor30
hoursandrapedbythreemigrantsinBerlin,Russianmediareportedatthetime.

Berlinpolicedidnotfindanyevidenceofkidnaporrapeandtheincidentisbeinginvestigatedbyprosecutors.

TheincidentcausedoutrageinGermany'sRussiancommunityandresultedinademonstrationneartheofficeof
GermanChancellorAngelaMerkel.

Therallywasattendedbyabout700RussianslivinginGermany.

Onemore:http://www.dw.com/en/russia-wants-explanation-over-germanys-handling-of-teen-rape-case/a-19005535

RussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrovdemandedafullexplanationfromGermanauthoritiesduringhisannual
addressonTuesday,sayingitwasclearthe13-year-olddidn't"voluntarilydisappearfor30hours."
"Theinformationwascoveredupforaverylongtimeduringherdisappearanceforsomereason,"Lavrovsaidduring
thepressconferenceinMoscow.
ThestudentfromBerlin-Marzahn,identifiedonlyasLisa,wasreportedmissingonJanuary11.Sheresurfacedaround
30hourslaterandfiledapolicereportclaimingtohavebeenabductedbythreemenatarailwaystationineastern
Berlin.Shewasallegedlytakentoanapartmentwhereshewasbeatenandsexuallyassaulted.AccordingtoGerman
media,theteendescribedthemenascomingfrom"southerncountriesandspeakingbrokenGerman."
Germanpolicehaverepeatedlystatedtherewasnoevidenceofkidnappingorrape.MartinSteltner,aspokesmanfor
theprosecutor'soffice,toldBerlin'sRBBpublicradioonMondaytherewereonlyindicationsof"consensualsexual
contact."Hedidn'tcommentonwhethertheofficewouldinvestigateallegedperpetratorsforhavingsexwithaminor,
whichcanbepunishablebylaw.

Thecasehassparkedoutrage,withRussianmediaandmembersofthefarrightaccusingpoliceofattemptingto
coverupcrimescommittedbyrefugees.SomehavealsodrawncomparisonswithGermanpolice'sinitialsilenceafter
sexattacksonhundredsofwomeninCologneonNewYear'sEve.Mostofthoseassaultswereallegedlycommittedby
menofNorthAfricanandAraborigin.
Inhisaddress,Lavrovsaidhehoped"migrationproblems"wouldn'tdriveauthoritiesto"paintoverrealitywith
politicalcorrectness."
"Truthandjusticemustprevail,"hesaid,addingthatMoscowwasworkingwiththegirl'slawyer,herfamilyandthe
Russianembassy.
Inthedaysfollowingthegirl'sdisappearance,RussianTVclaimedshewasheldfor30hoursasasexslavebyseveral
foreigners.Thepro-KremlinchannelNTVwentsofarastosaythat"inGermanyandinSweden,residentsare
regularlyrapedbyrefugeesbutthelocalauthoritiesandpolicehidethesefactsanddonotopencriminal
investigations."
ThecasepromptedhundredsofRussianGermanstoprotestinBerlinovertheweekend,callingfortheirchildrentobe
protectedfrom"migrantviolence."Theywerebackedbysupportersof"Brgida,"theBerlinbranchofthePegida
movement.
Morethan1millionasylumseekersarrivedinGermanylastyearandChancellorAngelaMerkelhascomeunder
growingpressureoverherwelcomingstancetorefugees.

IN26Jan16_0001.docx

Internet Notes 26 January 2016


Notes on Notes (Litvinenko) ......................................................................................................... 1
Kashin/Venediktov on the Litvinenko murder ............................................................................. 3
Is Russia ready for a new reset? .............................................................................................. 3
Treasury Department official says Putin is corrupt .................................................................. 4
More on Friedzons allegations against Putin (Petrov and the Spanish case) .............................. 6
Interview with the journalist who interviewed Friedzon (Putin moved his money to Hong Kong?)
......................................................................................................................................................... 7
Sergey Ivanov defends Putin and Chayka (Peskov reacts to Putin corruption story) ................ 9
Putin speaks at a National Front (ONF) forum in Stavropol (On Lenin and the Bolsheviks;
The collapse of the USSR; Praising Kadyrov) ......................................................................... 10
Putin slams Lenin for planting an atomic bomb that eventually brought about collapse ........ 10
TV Rain says the Kremlin is irritated with Kadyrov (Kadyrov has presented the opposition
with an opportunity) .................................................................................................................. 11
VEBs Vladimir Dmitriyev met with Putinand kept his job ............................................... 11
Real wages fell 9.5% in 2015 .................................................................................................... 12
Lavrov on Germanys migrant rape story................................................................................ 13

Notes on Notes (Litvinenko)

See yesterdays take


A couple of angles to the Litvinenko case that should be included. First, from the 9 June 2007
notes. An e-mail I received from a readersomeone who had known Litvinenko:
[A year ago Roma was the ONLY person, to the best of my knowledge,
on whom AL was collecting any dirt he could find. At that stage AL
wanted to accuse Roma of criminal business activities. AL mentioned
over the phone that he was doing this on his own - BAB wasn't involved
(or so he claimed). Bearing that in mind, I told AL that Roma would hire
the best lawyers in the world and AL was therefore taking a big risk. AL
never spoke to me about this matter again, but was always very friendly
towards me, and I thought he had dropped the idea.]

We shouldnt forget this story as wellfrom March, 2007: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-


dyn/content/article/2007/03/02/AR2007030201679.html
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Federal and local law enforcement authorities are investigating a shooting in Prince George's
County that critically injured a prominent intelligence expert who specializes in the former
Soviet Union.

Paul Joyal, 53, was shot Thursday, four days after he alleged in a television broadcast that
the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin was involved in the fatal poisoning of a
former KGB agent in London.

Law enforcement sources and sources close to Joyal, who requested anonymity because of
the sensitivity of the case, said the motive for the shooting was unclear. But several sources
confirmed that FBI investigators are looking into the incident because of Joyal's background
as an intelligence expert and his comments about the Alexander Litvinenko case.

Joyal was shot by two men in the driveway of his house in the 2300 block of Lackawanna
Street in Adelphi about 7:30 p.m. Thursday. The shooting was reported yesterday by Channel
4.

The identity of the shooters was unknown, and Prince George's police released few details
about the incident. But sources close to the investigation and to Joyal said two men accosted
Joyal as he stood in the driveway of his home, then shot him once in the groin.

Joyal's wife, who is a nurse, was at home at the time and ran to assist her husband as he lay
bleeding in the driveway, the sources said. He was taken to a hospital, where he was in
critical condition yesterday.

The sources said it was unclear whether the gunmen were trying to rob him.

Joyal, who has long been an outspoken critic of the Putin regime, appeared in a segment on
"Dateline NBC" Sunday about the Litvinenko case. Litvinenko's death from radiation
poisoning has caused widespread speculation that Putin and the Russian government were
involved, because Litvinenko was looking into the killing of a Russian journalist critical of
the regime. Putin and Kremlin officials have repeatedly denied involvement.

In the "Dateline" interview, Joyal accused the Russian government of being part of a
conspiracy to silence its critics.

"A message has been communicated to anyone who wants to speak out against the Kremlin:
'If you do, no matter who you are, where you are, we will find you, and we will silence you -
- in the most horrible way possible,' " Joyal said.

Joyal, who is a member of the Prince George's law enforcement task force, is a vice president
of National Strategies, a Washington-based government consulting firm. He founded his own
company in 1991 and established joint ventures in telecommunications and air transportation
in Russia and Georgia, according to the company's Web site.
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He is well-known for his expertise on intelligence and terrorism and for his network of
friends in the former Soviet Union, and he published a daily intelligence newsletter for 10
years that offered information on the former Soviet Union. In 1998, he was a lobbyist for the
Georgian government in Washington.

Kashin/Venediktov on the Litvinenko murder


Kashin: https://slon.ru/posts/62944

If anyone among Putins opponents thinks that the Litvinenko story will have an impact on
VVPs rating, they better think again. For starters, Venediktov has said he cant imagine Putin
apportioning polonium for Lugovoy and sending him along on his task.* For another thing, the
notion that you cant kill has its limits. You cant kill, but the FSB can; you cant kill, but the
Americans kill people they think are terrorists with drones; you cant kill, but Litvinenko, after
all, knew what he was doing. Looking for the limit that vlast cant go beyond in the eyes of
Russian society is like looking for the philosophers stone
*Venediktov (http://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalnovash/1698980-echo/ ) said that the Owen
report stated that Putin probably knew that Patrushev knewso its not proved, there are some
doubts. In a criminal trial, that means the defendant would be acquitted. In a civil case, there is
no guilty or not guilty. Venediktov adds that hes sure Kovtun and Lugovoy knowingly
poisoned Litvinenko. Did Putin call in Lugovoy and tell him Heres some polonium, go and
kill Litvinenko? No way, Putin is too cautious for that. Sure, Putin was told that Litvinenko
was a British agent and that he was attempting to discredit VVP personally. And its easy to
imagine that at some point Putin said to Patrushev, Do something. And they did. Was there
an order? Dos that make Putin guilty?
We need to seewhat kind of order did Obama give on bin Ladin and others? Kennedy on
Castro? At one point, Venediktov says he can imagine a scenario like thisa KGB-FSB
veterans organization gets an order and the FSB, at the level of, say, a deputy director, gave them
logistical helpHe says he is thinking of Henry IIs comments on someone ridding him of a
certain troublesome priest, Thomas Becket. Henry did penance the rest of his life, not thinking
that he had given an order to kill the priest (Comment: OK. But Putin hated Litvinenko, I
think thats a reasonable assumption to make. I doubt hell be doing any penance).
Regarding Lugovoy and his deputy mandate, awards and so onWe dont surrender our
own, its that simple. That doesnt mean Putin approved the murderits an hes an SOB, but
our SOB situation. The president is responsible for everything that happens on his watch, so in
a certain sense, he is responsible. The people who killed Politkovskaya and Nemtsov thought
they were giving Putin a present.

Is Russia ready for a new reset?

http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-01-26/2_red.html

Nezavisimaya Gazeta mentions both Kerry and the French Economics Minister saying at Davos
that sanctions could be removed in the next few months if the Minsk agreements are fulfilled
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(See the 25 January notes). Hillary Clintons talk of a new reset is also mentioned. Its
possible they could be preparing public opinion for a turnaround in relations with Russia. It
would not surprise anyone if sanctions are lifted by summerand not long ago, the mood was
one of a new Cold War.
But are Russian vlast and Russian society ready for that? State propaganda has gone far in
projecting an image of Russia as surrounded by enemies. But TV could simply explain that the
West has not been able to break Russia, so the shift could be brought on without too much
damage. The removal of sanctions could be played as a victory for the Russian president and a
demonstration of the peoples resolve, indifferent even to the exchange rate.
It follows that the anti-sanctions would have to go as well in such a scenariobut what about
import substitution, which has benefitted some in Russia? Are they ready for that? Another
beneficiary of a new Cold War is the military and military industryIn a period of open conflict,
cutting the military budget is out of the question, but if relations are warmer, then the voices of
those calling for cuts will be louder.
The removal of sanctions would also mean that Moscow, at least temporarily, would be more
cautious in announcing its geo-political ambitions. Under such conditions, its not clear what the
prospects for the ideologues of the Russkiy mir, which aspired to become the national idea,
would be. If the Russkiy mir ideaand its proponentsare shelved, its not certain they would
go along with that quietly. They helped formed the consensus around vlast in the last couple of
yearsif they go, along with sanctions, then a new consensus will have to be formed.

Treasury Department official says Putin is corrupt

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-treasury-official-calls-russias-putin-corrupt-bbc-2016-1

A U.S. Treasury official said the United States considers Russian President Vladimir
Putin to be corrupt and that it has known this for "many, many years," the BBC reported
on Monday.

Adam Szubin, acting Treasury secretary for terrorism and financial crimes, said in an
interview with BBC Panorama that the Russian president has been amassing secret
wealth.

"We've seen him enriching his friends, his close allies and marginalizing those who he
doesn't view as friends using state assets. Whether that's Russia's energy wealth,
whether it's other state contracts, he directs those to whom he believes will serve him
and excludes those who don't. To me, that is a picture of corruption," Szubin was quoted
as saying.
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The BBC report said Szubin declined to comment on a 2007 Central Intelligence Agency
report that estimated Putin's wealth at $40 billion, but he said the Russian leader's
stated wealth is an underestimation. Comment: That was Belkovskiys estimate of
Putins wealth based on the assets Belkovskiy said Putin controlled, but didnt
formally own. That comes up again in a piece on this story posted on newsru:
http://newsru.com/world/25jan2016/putin_corrupt.html

The newsru piece also mentions allegations made by Maksim Friedzonsee


below.*

"He supposedly draws a state salary of something like $110,000 a year," Szubin said.
"That is not an accurate statement of the man's wealth, and he has longtime training
and practices in terms of how to mask his actual wealth."

The Kremlin has denied such allegations. For his part, Putin has repeatedly said that he
has read press reports about his immense wealth, including that he was even the world's
richest man, but he has denied those reports as nonsense.

Putin's public financial disclosures depict a man of modest means. In April, Putin
declared 2014 income of 7.65 million roubles ($119,000). He listed the ownership of two
modest apartments and a share in a car parking garage.

The United States has placed sanctions on a number of Russian businessmen loyal to
Putin as part of its drive to put pressure on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine.

In March 2014, the U.S. Treasury Department tied Putin to profits from one of the
sanctioned businessmen, Gennady Timchenko, a long-time Putin acquaintance and then
co-owner of Gunvor, which trades nearly 3 percent of the world's oil.

"Timchenko activities in the energy sector have been directly linked to Putin. Putin has
investments in Gunvor and may have access to Gunvor funds," the department said in a
statement announcing the sanctions.

Geneva-based Gunvor, which has not been sanctioned, denied the allegations in the
Treasury statement. "President Putin does not and never has had any ownership,
IN26Jan16_0001.docx

beneficial or otherwise, in Gunvor. He is not a beneficiary of Gunvor or its activities,"


company spokesman Seth Thomas Pietras said in an email.

The BBC report came just days after a British inquiry concluded that Putin likely
approved a 2006 Russian intelligence operation to murder ex-KGB agent Alexander
Litvinenko with radioactive polonium-210 in London.

*From the 8 June 2015 notes:

[More on Friedzons allegations against Putin (Petrov and the Spanish case)

From the 27 May notes:

[Maksim Freidzon (who has a shady past himself), is trying to sue Lukoil and Gazprom under anti-racketeering laws
in New York (for allegedly stealing shares in oil companies he once held). He talked with Radio Liberty about Putin
and corruption/crime in 90s St. Petersburg. The item has since been deleted:
http://www.svoboda.org/content/article/27031833.html

One of his businesses at the time was a program for providing weapons for police officers that involved business ties
to the United Statesso he had dealings with Putin when VVP worked under Mayor Sobchak: Putin was in charge
of external economic relations, but Freidzon notes that Putin was overseeing law enforcement as well. Freidzon
claims he bribed Putin to get businesshe did not give the money to him directly, it went through Aleksey Miller,
who was working for Putin at the time (1993). Freidzon claims he paid $10,000 for a license to develop weapons for
policebut the Chechen war prompted new laws tightening restrictions on weapons and the project ground to a halt.
His fuel export company Soveks was registered with Putins external economics department in 1995 (Freidzon notes
that it provided gasoline for the city as well). Putin got 4% of the operation. Timchenko and his company Kineks
were involved. The Tambov mobs Vladimir Kumarin (Comment: AKA Barsukov) had a hand in the business
as well. So Putin, Kumarin, and Timchenko were part of a collective (he drops some other names of those in the
collectiveSergey Vasilyev, Ilya Traber, and Dmitriy Skigin; Freidzon says Putin and Kumarin had working
relations) that controlled the fuel business in St. Petersburg. Freidzon says that everybody called Timchenko
gangrene behind his backonce he got in, gangrene would consume everything

Officials in the mayors office lived off of bribesFreidzon notes a symbiosis between gangsters and the KGB,
and says Putin was an example of thatWe also get some bits about some of Freidzons partners being connected
to the Bank of New York money laundering scandal and a story about Millers connections to the struggle over the
St. Petersburg port, a struggle that included the assassination of regional Vice Governor Mikhail Manevich in 1997
(Freidzon says that Putin was the Petersburg teams representative in the sale of the port)

After Sobchak lost a re-election bid in St. Petersburg, Putin went to MoscowFreidzon says VVP was nominated
by the Leningrad Oblast Chekists, who wanted to take their man to the end, that is, to make him presidentOne
of the men Freidzon claims was involved in taking over Soveks was a good friend of Putins, Viktor
IN26Jan16_0001.docx

KorytovPutin, says Freidzon, has a money fetishwe should not forget, he says, that Americans are giving
money to VVP through Lukoil gas stations in New York (nevertheless, Freidzon says he is not naming Putin in his
lawsuit, since, as Russian president, he still enjoys immunity. If and when VVP loses that, Friedzon says he will
be simply one of many who will want Putin in jail). Freidzon goes on to describe Putin as a Soviet man who had
lost any understanding of good and evil (Comment: From what I gather, Freidzon was no prize, either). Putin,
he says, joined the Chekists to protect himselfmoney was something that could protect him from all
unpleasantness (Comment: Belkovskiy has described Putin and his entourage as people who understand
everything in terms of moneyRussia has a Moneyocracy, according to Belkovskiy).]

I followed up with this item from the 3 June notes:

[Interview with the journalist who interviewed Friedzon (Putin moved his money to Hong Kong?)

The journalist is Anastasia Kirilenko

http://ehorussia.com/new/node/10995

She says that she has been looking at Putins past for some timeshe met with other people besides
FreidzonThe surprising thing was not the bribe Freidzon claimed Putin recieved, thats routine, but that Putin
wanted a piece of businesses. The sanctions against people like Timchenko are really directed at PutinVVPs
associates control businesses for him. At the time Putin worked for the St. Petersburg mayors office, it was
difficult to avoid contact with organized crime, but Putin gave preferences to the St. Petersburg Fuel Company,
controlled by Tambov mobster Vladimir KumarinPutin owned shares in SPAG in Germany, as did Tambov
gangsters, and that company was implicated in money laundering and narco-trafficking. When Putin headed the
FSB, he sent a team to St. Petersburg to seek out and destroy evidence of this (Comment: At the time, there were
stories of Putin trying to go through the Lubyanka archives, looking for kompromat on himself)Putin used old
Stasi connections in businesslike Matthais Warnig

Kirilenko says there has been some progress in Western investigations of Timchenko and Rotenbergthats what
prompted the interest of Western media and the questions addressed to Putin about his connections to organized
crime, Timchenko, and the rest (See the 22 and 27 May notes)Kirilenko thinks that both Litvineko and Nemtsov
were killed because of their investigations into the activities of Putin and his circleNemtsov, for instance, wrote
that Putin and Kabayeva, together with Timchenko, flew to Putins palace on the Black Sea on Timchenkos
private jetShe thinks Nemtsov had more information that would embarrass the Kremlinon connections
between the special services and organized crime, for instance

Before sanctions were announced against Russia, Kirilenko says there was a large outflow of capital from Europe to
Hong Kong. She suspects that money controlled by Putins friends, money that was de-facto VVPs, was moved to
Hong Kong as well. Thats why Putin has been so confident that sanctions would not have any big impactThe
interviewer brings up Malofeyev and his involvement in events in UkraineKirilenko says he is close to Putin, not
in the inner circle, but close enough. Malofeyev finances a TV station that insists Russia and Ukraine are one. Hes
one of those who financed the separatists, but the main culprit for a future tribunal is Putin, none of what
happened would have been possible without him (she also names Vladimir Yakunin as financing the separatists
and Crimeas Aksenov, through Yakunins Orthodox Foundations)Kirilenko ends by saying there is probably no
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documentation that Yakunins Russian Railways transported weapons that were used in Eastern Ukraine, though
she thinks it probably did]

http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/06/08/595560-s-kem-prihodilos-vesti-dela-
vladimiru-putinu#!/galleries/140737492291355/normal/1

Roman Shleynov goes back over a lot of the ground covered in the articles above, noting as well the role of
Gennadiy Petrov (see the 4 and 5 June notes) in St. Petersburg at the time Freidzon says he was making deals with
Putin and involved with the collective he mentioned in the Radio Liberty piece. Shleynov, for instance, notes that
Kumarin became deputy head of the Petersburg Fuel Company (PTK) in the late 90sstructures connected with
Petrov were among the companys co-owners. PTK was a co-owner of the Petersburg Oil Terminal also co-owned
by Skigin and Vasilyev. Still other co-owners included the Petersburg port and firms connected to Traber, Skigin,
and Petrov.

We also get a bit more from Shleynov on the material in the Spanish investigation on Petrovs contacts with Russia
officials. He mentions, among other things, a Petrov telephone call to former Bastrykin deputy Igor Sobelevskiy (he
eventually resigned; Sobelevskiy was a law school classmate of Putin and Bastrykin) regarding a land plot and
Petrov allegedly helping former Communications Minister Reyman acquire a Spanish villa. We also get a claim
made back in 2008 about Putin being connected to Sotrama, a company owned by SkiginSotrama owned an oil
trading firm, Horizon International Trading. Shleynov reports that Putin, while working in the St. Petersburg
mayors office, made a number of decisions that were advantageous to Soveks, the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, and
PTK.

Putin spokesman Peskov, when asked about these accusations, said that Putins decisions made while he worked for
Sobchak were routine. Of course, Putin knew those peoplethey were businessmen involved in external
transactions and that was Putins responsibility. The rest is nonsense. Neither Putin, nor his boss at the time,
Sobchak, said Peskov, were the kind of people who would bend for anybody, including criminals

This graphic was included in the Shlyenov piece:


IN26Jan16_0001.docx

Comment: recall as well the recent kompromat dump on Putin related to his connections to
organized crime. See the notes from 7 January.

Sergey Ivanov defends Putin and Chayka (Peskov reacts to Putin corruption story)

http://echo.msk.ru/news/1701278-echo.html

Ivanov called the claim from the US Treasury Department that Putin is corrupt a fantasy and
slander

Regarding Chayka, Ivanov didnt think much of the charges against him made by Navalniys
Anti-Corruption Foundation, but said vlast was ready to listen if the opposition came up with any
concrete evidence of official corruption: http://echo.msk.ru/news/1701248-echo.html

Peskovs reaction to the Putin corruption story:


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/us-official-accuses-putin-of-
corruption/556877.html

The Kremlin dismissed the accusations. None of these questions or issues need to be
answered, as they are pure fiction, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when the BBC
asked him to comment on the accusations.

On Tuesday, Peskov called the U.S. Treasury's statement an official accusation that
demands proof, because the voicing of such accusations by such agencies as the U.S.
IN26Jan16_0001.docx

Treasury without actual evidence casts a shadow on this very agency, the RIA Novosti
news agency reported.

Putin speaks at a National Front (ONF) forum in Stavropol (On Lenin and the Bolsheviks;
The collapse of the USSR; Praising Kadyrov)

Recall this item from the 21 January notes:

[Putin slams Lenin for planting an atomic bomb that eventually brought about collapse
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=556490 President Vladimir Putin on Thursday blamed
Bolshevik revolutionary Vladimir Lenin for planting the ideas that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union,
the Interfax news agency reported.

During a meeting of the Presidential Council for Science and Education, one of the attendees quoted a
poem by Boris Pasternak describing Lenin as someone who had managed the flow of his thoughts to rule
the country.

Letting your rule be guided by thoughts is right, but only when that idea leads to the right results, not like
it did with Vladimir Ilich, Putin quipped in reply. In the end that idea led to the fall of the Soviet Union, he
added.

There were many such ideas as providing regions with autonomy, and so on. They planted an atomic
bomb under the building that is called Russia which later exploded. We did not need a global revolution,
he said.

Putin has in the past famously described the fall of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical
catastrophe of the twentieth century.]

Following Putins comments, Yevkurov, who heads Ingushetia, said that Lenin should be
removed from the Red Square mausoleum and buried:
http://www.newsru.com/russia/22jan2016/evkurov_lenin.html

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51206

Putin is asked about his attitude to Leninand what about taking him out of the mausoleum and
burying him? Putin does not answer that question, but is sharply critical of the Bolsheviks for
the execution of the Tsar and his family (and what about the people who worked for them,
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people of proletarian origins?), the executions of ROC priests, and the role of the Bolsheviks in
undermining the war effort at the front, all done for the sake of achieving power. The economy
was wrecked by the Bolsheviks, so Lenin had to institute the New Economic Policy. True, the
planned economy allowed for a concentration of efforts and resources, industrialization, there
were some pluses. But in the end, the inability to innovate and change meant the collapse of the
economy.

Lenin planted a delayed action mine under the USSR. Lenin, in his discussions with Stalin,
supported the right of Soviet republics to join and withdraw from the USSR. The borders were
marked arbitrarily. What was the basis for transferring the Donbass to Ukraine, for instance?
Simply to increase the proletariat part of the population. And there are other examples. So the
construction of the Soviet state, along with ineffective management, both economically and
socially, eventually led to the collapse of the state. Yet Putin says at one point that unlike some
others, when the Soviet Union was collapsing, he kept his CPSU membership card.

Putin, in an exchange with an ONF member from Chechnya, praised the effective work of
Ramzan Kadyrov. He expressed some cautious optimism about the economy (a decreasing
inflation rate, a positive trade balance, lower than expected budget deficit), and talked about
partner and ally Chinas economic problems as being a big cause of the decline in oil prices.
The ONF, he said, could aid in helping broaden economic freedom and in combatting corruption.

On Syria, Putin said that Russia had no plans to interfere in the internal affairs of that country,
but would fight to liquidate terrorism there (Comment: Putin, in his internal affairs
remark, was probably thinking of the story we saw of his allegedly asking Assad to step
aside late last year. See the 22 January notes).

TV Rain says the Kremlin is irritated with Kadyrov (Kadyrov has presented the opposition with
an opportunity)

https://tvrain.ru/news/istochnik_dozhdja_v_administratsii_prezidenta_razdrazheny_dejstvijami_rukovods
tva_chechni-402418/

The Presidential Administration is reportedly irritated with Kadyrov over his verbal attacks on
the opposition and the mass meeting in support of Kadyrov staged in Grozny (See the 22 January
notes)PA officials think the show is meant to press the Kremlin not to cut subsidies to
Chechnya.

Meanwhile, Mikhail Komin, writing at slon.ru, says that Kadyrov and companys antics play into
the hands of the opposition: https://slon.ru/posts/62888 The slogan Kadyrov is Russias shame
and the message that Kadyrov and his associates plan to act as Putins oprichnina and spread
Chechen type rule all over Russia could be a powerful force for mobilization that may unite the
nuclear opposition supporters with central Russia, the liberal flank of the government, and
even the nationalists.

VEBs Vladimir Dmitriyev met with Putinand kept his job


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http://freenews.xyz/2016/01/26/media-dmitriev-will-remain-at-the-head-of-veb-the-
question-of-his-possible-resignation-is-cleared/
MOSCOW, January 26. The Chairman of Vnesheconombank (VEB) Vladimir Dmitriev retained his
post, his resignation is no longer a question. Dmitriev on 18 January met with President Vladimir
Putin, who confirmed the powers of the Chairman of VEB and promised support, reports the
newspaper Vedomosti referring to two sources from the Corporation.

The meeting took place. Current issues were discussed, confirmed the Presidents press
Secretary, Dmitry Peskov, though he refused to give details.

Rumors about the possible resignation of Dmitriev intensified at the end of November 2015, when a
question arose about the possible rescue of the bank. Dmitriev said that VEB obligations required
1.3 trillion rubles of government support up to 2020.

According to the law about the development Bank its Chairman is dismissed by the decree of the
President on the recommendation of the Prime Minister, who heads the Supervisory Board of VEB.
But, according to Medvedevs Press Secretary, there is no recommendation that Dmitriev leave his
post.

Measures to support VEB will be discussed at a meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on 3
February, according to a federal official.

Real wages fell 9.5% in 2015


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russians-real-wages-fall-95-in-2015/556842.html

As Russia's inflation reached double-digits last year, Russians saw their real wages decline
by 9.5 percent compared to 2014, data published by the Rosstat state statistics service
showed Monday.

In December 2015, real wages of Russians dropped 10 percent when compared to the
same month in 2014, according to Rosstat data. The average monthly salary in Russia last
year was 30,311 rubles ($381).

Average real incomes apart from wages that include private incomes and state payouts
fell 4 percent last year when compared to 2014, Rosstat said.

The sharp decline in earnings have forced a lot of Russians to slash their daily spending.
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According to the findings of the poll conducted in the end of December 2015 by state-run
pollster VTsIOM, 63 percent of Russians restrained from purchasing certain goods in the
previous six months or bought them less often.

Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they switched to cheaper goods and 26 percent
of Russians started to spend their personal savings on daily needs, the Interfax news
agency reported, citing the results of the poll.

Lavrov on Germanys migrant rape story

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russias-lavrov-urges-germany-to-deal-with-
migrant-rape-allegations/556897.html

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has urged Germany not to sweep under the rug
an incident involving a 13-year old girl in Berlin who was reportedly missing for 30 hours,
the TASS news agency reported Tuesday.

We hope that there will be no more incidents like this one, Lavrov was quoted by the
Interfax news agency as saying.

Lavrov added that Moscow was now working with the family's lawyer and that he said that it
is clear that the girl could not voluntarily disappear for 30 hours, Interfax reported.

Earlier this month, the family in question claimed that their daughter of Russian descent had
been kidnapped, held for 30 hours and raped by three migrants in Berlin, Russian media
reported at the time.

Berlin police did not find any evidence of kidnap or rape and the incident is being
investigated by prosecutors.

The incident caused outrage in Germany's Russian community and resulted in a


demonstration near the office of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The rally was attended by about 700 Russians living in Germany.


One more: http://www.dw.com/en/russia-wants-explanation-over-germanys-handling-of-
teen-rape-case/a-19005535

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov demanded a full explanation from German
authorities during his annual address on Tuesday, saying it was clear the 13-year-old didn't
"voluntarily disappear for 30 hours."
IN26Jan16_0001.docx

"The information was covered up for a very long time during her disappearance for some
reason," Lavrov said during the press conference in Moscow.
The student from Berlin-Marzahn, identified only as Lisa, was reported missing on January
11. She resurfaced around 30 hours later and filed a police report claiming to have been
abducted by three men at a railway station in eastern Berlin. She was allegedly taken to an
apartment where she was beaten and sexually assaulted. According to German media, the
teen described the men as coming from "southern countries and speaking broken German."
German police have repeatedly stated there was no evidence of kidnapping or rape. Martin
Steltner, a spokesman for the prosecutor's office, told Berlin's RBB public radio on Monday
there were only indications of "consensual sexual contact." He didn't comment on whether
the office would investigate alleged perpetrators for having sex with a minor, which can be
punishable by law.

The case has sparked outrage, with Russian media and members of the far right accusing
police of attempting to cover up crimes committed by refugees. Some have also drawn
comparisons with German police's initial silence after sex attacks on hundreds of women in
Cologne on New Year's Eve. Most of those assaults were allegedly committed by men of
North African and Arab origin.
In his address, Lavrov said he hoped "migration problems" wouldn't drive authorities to
"paint over reality with political correctness."
"Truth and justice must prevail," he said, adding that Moscow was working with the girl's
lawyer, her family and the Russian embassy.
In the days following the girl's disappearance, Russian TV claimed she was held for 30 hours
as a sex slave by several foreigners. The pro-Kremlin channel NTV went so far as to say that
"in Germany and in Sweden, residents are regularly raped by refugees but the local
authorities and police hide these facts and do not open criminal investigations."
The case prompted hundreds of Russian Germans to protest in Berlin over the weekend,
calling for their children to be protected from "migrant violence." They were backed by
supporters of "Brgida," the Berlin branch of the Pegida movement.
More than 1 million asylum seekers arrived in Germany last year and Chancellor Angela
Merkel has come under growing pressure over her welcoming stance to refugees.
From: Washingtonpost<email@e.washingtonpost.com>
Senttime: 01/26/201605:56:43AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: TheDaily202:HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry

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HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry
HillaryspeaksduringaDemocratictownhallinDesMoineslastnight.(PatrickT.Fallon/Bloomberg)

THEBIGIDEA:

HillaryClintonsaidlastnightthatshelovesthenewBernieSandersadsettoSimonand
Garfunkelsinging,TheyveallcometolookforAmerica.Thenshetriedtoofferareality
check.

Now,look,shesaidduringatownhallinDesMoines.Youcampaigninpoetry.You
governinprose.Andweneedalotmorepoetryinthiscampaign.ButIbelievethatImthe
betterpersontobetheDemocraticnominee,andthecommanderinchief.

Thecampaign-in-poetry,govern-in-prosetropewascoinedbythelateMarioCuomo,the
liberalNewYorkgovernor.WasitacoincidencethatCuomosson,Chris,wasmoderating
theeventforCNN?

ForClinton,itgavefreshlifetoamantrathatsheunsuccessfullytriedtouseasacudgel
againstthen-Sen.Obamain2008."Youcampaignwithpoetry,butyougovernwithprose,
sheoftensaid,downplayinghisrhetoricalabilities.

Inaninterviewpublishedearlieryesterday,PresidentObamadismissedcomparisonsof
Sanderstohimselforthiscampaignto2008."Idon'tthinkthat'strue,"ObamatoldPolitico.
HesaidthefactthatClintonknows"everypolicyinsideandoutcouldmakehermore
cautious,andhercampaignmoreprosethanpoetry."

Justlikelasttime,Clinton,lockedinaneck-and-neckraceinIowa,istryingtograbthe
mantleofchangelateinthegame.Lastnight,shehadamomentthatmighthelp.Afirst-time
caucus-goerwhosaidhesleaningtowardSanderstoldClintonthatmanyofhisfriendsfind
hertobedishonestandinauthentic.Ivebeenonthefrontlinesofchangeandprogress
sinceIwasyourage,shereplied.Ivetakenonthestatusquotimeandtimeagain.The
crowdlovedit.

Thetwonewsiestquotesfromthenight

Sandersonhisambitiousplans:"Yes,wewillraisetaxes.Yeswewill."

Clintononheremailserver:Imnotwillingtosayitwasanerrorinjudgmentbecause
nothingIdidwaswrong.

WHILEYOUWERESLEEPING:
--FederalofficesinD.C.willremainclosedtodayasthecityrecoversfromthe
snowstorm.Soiseverymajorschoolsystemintheregion.(Listhere.)

Metromostlyresumedrailserviceat5a.m.ButitcouldnotopentheSilverLine,and
atthelastminutethetransitagencysaidworkersareunabletorestoretrainserviceat
fourOrangeLinestationsthatwereexpectedtoreopen:Vienna,DunnLoring,West
FallsChurchandEastFallsChurch.Busservicewillbeexpandedoverthecourseof
today,althoughitisstillextremelylimited.(Thelatestontheclean-upeffortishere.)
Tragedy1:AsnowplowhitapedestrianwalkingdownthestreetinMontgomery
Countyabout8p.m.Themansinjuriesaredescribedassignificantbutnotlife
threatening.(MartinWeil)
Tragedy2:AfamilyinNewJerseywastryingtodigitswayoutwhenthechillbecame
toomuchtohandle.Themotherandherchildrenages1and3huddledinthe
carwiththeenginerunningtokeepwarm.Thekidsfathertriedtoclearthesnow
outside.Butthetailpipewascloggedwithsnow,pushingdeadlycarbonmonoxidegas
intothecar.Whenthefatherwenttocheckonthem,hecouldnotwakethemup.
(LindseyBever)
Today'sweather:Ourwarmingandmeltingtrendpicksupanothernotchas
temperaturessurgeaheadofanapproachingcoldfront,theCapitalWeatherGang
forecasts.Partlytomostlycloudyskieswithwarmermorningtemperaturesallowhighs
toreachthemid-to-upper40s.Aslightchanceofrainshowersshowupbylate
afternoonintoevening."

--Obamabannedsolitaryconfinementforjuvenilesinfederalprisons,sayingthe
practiceisoverusedandhasthepotentialfordevastatingpsychologicalconsequences.In
anop-edthatappearsintoday'sPost,thepresidentoutlinesaseriesofexecutiveactions
thatalsoprohibitfederalcorrectionsofficialsfrompunishingprisonerswhocommit"low-
levelinfractions"withsolitaryconfinement."Thenewrulesalsocallforexpandingtreatment
formentallyillprisoners,"JulietEilperinscoops."Whilethepresidentsreformsapply
broadlytotheroughly10,000federalinmatesservingtimeinsolitaryconfinement,thereare
onlyahandfulofjuvenileoffendersplacedinrestrictivehousingeachyear.Between
September2014andSeptember2015,federalauthoritieswerenotifiedofjust13juveniles
whowereputinsolitaryinitsprisons."Readtheop-edhere.

--Thecreatoroftheanti-PlannedParenthoodvideoswasindictedonfelony
charges."AHoustongrandjurythatwasinvestigatingaccusationsofcriminalmisconduct
againstPlannedParenthoodinsteadindictedtheleaderofananti-abortiongroupthat
recordedcovertvideosoftheorganizationsemployees,"DaniellePaquettereports."Harris
CountyDistrictAttorneyDevonAndersonsaidDavidDaleiden,thedirectoroftheCenterfor
MedicalProgress,facesafelonychargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecordanda
misdemeanorcountrelatedtobuyinghumantissue.SandraMerritt,oneofDaleidens
employees,wasalsoindictedonachargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecord.The
grandjuryclearedPlannedParenthoodGulfCoastofanywrongdoing.TexasGov.Greg
Abbottsaid,however,thattheinspectorgeneralofthestatesHealthandHumanServices
CommissionandtheTexasattorneygeneralsofficewouldcontinuetoinvestigatePlanned
Parenthoodsactions."

--OneweekbeforeIowa,abrandnewWashingtonPost/ABCNewspollshows
DonaldTrumpsolidifyinghisnationallead.RepublicansseeTrumpasthestrongest
candidateonmajorissuesandbyfarthemostelectableinthelargefieldofGOPhopefuls,
DanBalzandScottClementwrite.ThebusinessmogulleadsthenationalGOPfieldby16
points,at37percent,withTedCruzplacing2nd,at21percent.MarcoRubioisin3rdwith
11percent,followedbyBenCarson(7percent)andJebBush(5percent).Trumps
supportersaremorecommittedtohimthanthoseofhisrivals,with57percentsayingthey
willdefinitelyvoteforhim(comparedto34percentforalltheothercandidates).Inabig
shift,6of10RepublicansseeTrumpasmostlikelytowintheGOPnod,andTheDonald
leadsamongalldemographicgroups(includingwhiteevangelicals,thoughhisstrongest
supportcomesfromthosewithincomeunder$50,000).Trumpssuccessappearsbolstered
bythefindingthat9in10GOPerssaythecountryisseriouslyonthewrongtrack,and8in
10aredissatisfiedwiththefederalgovernment.Seethefullresultshere.

--TheresultsaremuchcloserinIowa,whereTrumpleadsCruzby2points(31to29
percent)amonglikelyRepublicancaucus-goers,accordingtonewnumbers
releasedthismorningbyQuinnipiacUniversity.Rubioplaces3rdwith13percentwith
noothercandidatebreaking7percent.TheresultsareprettymuchthesameastheQpolls
Jan.11survey.Only2percentareundecided,though39percentofthosewhopickeda
candidatemightchangetheirminds.

--TheDemocraticcontestintheHawkeyeStateisalsonarrowing.Clintonleads
Sandersby6points(48to42percent),downfrom14pointsinearlyDecember,according
toaFoxNewspollreleasedlastnight.Bernieisgainingamongmen(a2-pointDecember
edgegrewisa12-pointadvantagenow),whileHillaryislosinggroundamongthose45and
olderandthosewithcollegedegrees.Nationally,Clintonsnumbersarealsoslipping,with
49percentsupportingher(downfrom54percenttwoweeksago)comparedto37percent
forSanders(alsodown,from39percent).Undecidedsrosefrom2to10percent.TheFox
NewsPollsaysthattheClintonerosioncomespartiallyfromfallingsupportamongblack
voters,67percentofwhomnowbackher(comparedto78percenttwoweeksagoand84
percentinDecember).

WelcometoTheDaily202,withcontributionsfromMichaelSmith.Signuptoreceivethe
newsletter.Programmingnote:Wearelaunchinganewback-endsystemtoprepareand
publishthismorning.Itshouldnotimpactyouruserexperience.But,ifitdoes,pleaseflag
anyissuestopowerpost@washpost.com.Thankyouforreading.

GETSMARTFAST:

1. TheSupremeCourtruledthatteenagerssentencedtomandatorylifesentencesfor
murdermusthaveachancetoargueforrelease.Theruling,whichisretroactive,could
affectasmanyas1,500inmatesnationwide.(RobertBarnes)

2. SCOTUSalsoupheldaFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionrulethat
electricitygeneratorshate.The6-2decisionisawinforObamaandthe
environmentalists.(RobertBarnes)

3. NewHampshirehasdesignatedtwojudgestohearvoterandballotchallenges
duringtheFeb.9primary,whenanewvoterIDlawgoesintoeffect.(AP)

4. Atleast20werekilledwhenISISmilitantssetoffmultiplebombsatagovernment-run
securitycheckpointinHoms,Syria.(AP)

5. TheTalibanclaimedresponsibilityafteranAfghanpolicemanfatallyshot10ofhis
fellowofficersinKandaharbeforefleeing.(AP)

6. TheU.N.willconveneSyrianpeacetalksonFriday,butPresidentBasharal-
Assadsgovernmentandhisopponentswillnolongermeetface-to-face,whichwas
partoftheoriginalplan.(LizSly)

7. JohnKerry,meetingwithCambodianleaders,expressedconcernoverthe
governmentsrecordonhumanrightsandcorruption.Thevisitfocusedontradeand
investment.(CarolMorello)
8. Theownerofagunshopandhissonwerekilledduringashootoutwithtwo
customers,whowereinjuredinthegunfire,afteranargumentovera$25fee.(Sarah
Larimer)

9. Federalauthoritiesaresearchingforthreemenwhoescapedfromamaximum-
securityprisoninSouthernCalifornia.(PeterHolley)

10. AirbusisoneofseveralcompaniesalreadytryingtosellproductstoIrannowthat
economicsanctionshavebeenlifted.(NewYorkTimes)

11. TheUniversityofMissouriprofessorwhocalledfor"muscle"topushoutstudent
journaliststryingtocovercampusprotestswaschargedwithassault.(SusanSvrluga)

12. Indianaseconomylostasmuchas$60millionin2015whenseveralorganizations
decidednottohosteventsinIndianapolisbecauseofthestatescontroversialreligious
libertylaw.(AP)

13. ScientistsfoundevidenceofamasscareinKenya10,000yearsago,makingitthe
oldestactofhumanwarfare.(Reuters)

POWERPLAYERSINTHENEWS:

1. Sen.EdwardMarkey(D-Mass.)putaholdonPresidentObama'snomineetohead
theFDAbecausehewantstheagencytodomoreabouttheabuseofopioid
painkillers.(BradyDennis)
2. MartinShkreli,theex-biotechexecutivefacingfraudcharges,gotpermissionfroma
judgetotraveltoD.C.totestifyondrugpricingbeforetheHouseCommitteeon
OversightandGovernmentReformonFeb.4.(Bloomberg)
3. ScottWalkerlistedhisthree-bedroomWisconsinhousefor$338,000.Helivesinthe
governor'smanion,andtweetedthathe'slookingto"downsize"nowthatheandhis
wifeareemptynesters.(Politico)
4. ZephyrTeachout,theprotestcandidateagainstGov.AndrewCuomo(D-N.Y.)inthe
2014primary,isrunningtosucceedretiringRepublicanRep.Chris
Gibson.(PoughkeepsieJournal)
5. GeorgeH.W.Bushandhiswife,Barbara,calledNikkiHaleytocongratulateherfor
herStateoftheUnionresponse.(CharlestonPostandCourier)
6. BritishexplorerHenryWorsley,attemptingthefirstunassistedsolocrossingof
Antarctica,died71daysafterstartinghisjourney.Hewaswithin30milesofhis
target.(BrianMurphy)

MOREONTHEREPUBLICANRACE--

CRUZ,SLIPPING,ISTRYINGTOREGAINHISFOOTINGINIOWAAGAINSTTRUMP:

1. Hiscampaignspentyesterdaydescribinghimas"theunderdog."(RobertCostaand
PhilipRucker)
2. TheTexassenatorwarnedagroupofpastorsinaclosed-doormeetingthat,"IfDonald
winsIowa,herightnowhasasubstantialleadinNewHampshire.Ifhewentontowin
NewHampshireaswelltheresaverygoodchancehecouldbeunstoppableand
beournominee.AndthenextsevendaysinIowawilldeterminewhetherornotthat
happens."(KatieZezima)
3. TheCruzcampaignlaunchedanattackadagainstTrump's"NewYorkvalues."It
includesanoldclipofTrumpsayingthatheispro-choiceacrosstheboardandsaying
"howstupidarethepeopleofIowa."(Watchhere.)
4. ACruzSuperPAClaunchedthreeattackadsagainstTrumpaspartofa$2.5million
buy.Onealsohighlightshispastsupportforpartial-birthabortion,usingthesame
"MeetthePress"interviewasinthecampaign'sad.Anotherspotshowsaclipof
TrumppraisingCruzin2014.AthirdslamsTrumpforbackinguniversalhealthcare,or
"Trumpcare."
5. Aseparatepro-CruzPAClaunchedaradioadinIowatodefendhisethanolstance.
(DavidWeigel)
6. MarcoRubioattackedCruzonFoxNewsforhislawclientswhileinprivate
practice.WhenTedCruzhadtochooseasalawyer,hewaschoosingtorepresent
theChinese,"Rubiosaid."HerepresentedaChinesecompanythatstolesecretsand
aproductfromanAmericancompany.Soyoucan'tgoaroundsayingyou'retoughon
Chinabutthenhavealegalrecordinwhichyouwerepaidalotofmoneytodefendthe
ChinesewhohadtakenaproductawayfromanAmericanunjustly,unfairlyand
illegally.(Watchhere.)

THEDAILYTRUMP:

1. AtopaidetoSen.JeffSessions(R-Ala.),StephenMiller,willjoinTrumpscampaign
asaseniorpolicyadviser.(Costa)

2. TheformerSouthCarolinaRepublicanstaterepresentativewhocalledNikkiHaleya
raghead,JakeKnotts,endorsedTrump.(PhilipRucker)
3. TrumptauntedMichaelBloombergonCNN:"I'dbeathim.Iwouldlovehimtodoit
actually.Youknow,weusedtobefriends.Iguesswe'renotfriendsanymore."

4. DonaldRumsfeld,alongtimeadversaryofBush41buttheDefenseSecretaryto
Bush43,saidJebisnotconnectingbecausetherearesomepeoplethatare
uncomfortablewithadynasty.RumsfeldtoldtheTodayshowthatTrumphasa
touchedanerveinourcountry.

KASICHRISING,CHRISTIEFADINGINNEWHAMPSHIRE:

1. TheBostonGlobeendorsedKasich.TheBostonHeraldendorsedChristie.
2. Kasichisgoingall-inontheGraniteState.AfterThursday'sIowadebate,hewillnot
leaveNewHampshireuntiltheprimary.Anotherpollyesterday,fromFranklinPierce
University,puttheOhiogovernoraheadoftherestoftheestablishmentcontendersin
thestate,with12percent.(EdO'Keefe)
3. Christie'sfavorabilityhasdroppedfrom53%lastmonthto41%nowamongNew
HampshireRepublicans,perCNN:"Hehasbeencrucifiedoverthelastfewweeks,"
saidMikeDennehy,anunaffiliatedRepublicanoperativeinthestate."It'sashamefor
Christiebecausehereallydidhavemomentum."Dennehycamehomefromworkone
nighttotwocampaignmailersattackingChristie'srecord.Heshruggeditoff,walked
insideandflippedonhisPandora.Thefirstadtointerrupthisstreamingmusic:an
attackonChristie.Helatergrabbedhisremoteandflippedonthenews.Therewere
back-to-backadstargetingChristie.(CNN)

MOREONTHEDEMOCRATICRACE:

1. SouthCarolinaStateRep.JustinT.Bamberg,thelawyerforWalterScott's
family,switchedhissupportfromClintontoSanders.(VanessaWilliams)
2. BillwillflytoIowaonThursdayforafour-cityswing:Waverly,MountVernon,
WashingtonandOttumwa.(AbbyPhillip)

3. Hillarys2008campaignmanager,PattiSolisDoyle,consideredquittingherpost
asanaidetotheFirstLadyin1998duringtheMonicaLewinskyscandalbutresolved
tostay.Itwasas----ythingtodotoher.Buthedidit.Shedidn'tdoit,"SolisDoyle
saidinaninterviewwithDavidAxelrodforhispodcast.Ithought,shedidn'tdo
anything.Heisthejerkhere.AndwhywouldIpunishherbyquitting?Butwhathe
didwasabsolutelyunacceptableformanyoftheyoungwomenwhowereworkingon
thatstaff.(CNNPodcast)

4. AsuperPACfoundedbyGOPmegadonorJoeRicketts,EndingSpendingAction
Fund,islaunchinga$600,000TVbuyinIowathatcallsSanderstooliberal.The
spot,firstreportedbytheNewYorkTimes,isclearlyaimedathelpingboostSanders
overClinton,highlightinghissupportfortuition-freecollege,single-payerhealthcare
andtaxincreasesonthesuper-rich.

TooLiberal

WAPOHIGHLIGHTS:
ChrisChristiehandsoverhispentoSenatePresidentStephenSweeneyaftersigninglegislationturningover
controlofAtlanticCity'scasinodistricttothestate,intheunfinishedlobbyofthestalledRevelCasinoinFeb.
2011.(TomGralish/StaffPhotographer)

--ChristiefailedtoarrestAtlanticCity'sdelineinthelatestepisodeofourDecider
series.-->AtlanticCitysMr.Fix-It,byDavidFahrenthold:Christiechoseto
interveneaggressivelyinAtlanticCitystroubles,believingthatabettergovernoranda
littlemoregovernmentcouldovercomeitssteepeconomicdecline.Sofirst,Christiehad
thestatetakeoverhalfofthecity.Butthatwasntenough.Sohetriedanewcasino.But
thatwasntenough.SohetriedInternetbetting.Butthatwasntenough...Despite
Christiesefforts,fourofthe12casinosshutdown.About7,000jobswerelost.His
interventionwentsobadlythatthestatelegislatureisconsideringwhethertorevokeAtlantic
Cityslastbestlifeline,itsstate-sanctionedmonopolyongambling.Themayorafellow
Republican,exasperatedwithChristieisconsideringmunicipalbankruptcy.Christies
decisiontointerveneherereflectshisstyleofgoverning:Confident.Pugnacious.
Braggadocious.Andsometimesunwillingtoacknowledgethelimitsofhispower.

--"HowDavidPetraeusavoidedfelonychargesandpossibleprisontime,"byAdam
Goldman:"TheJusticeDepartmenthasneverdiscussedhowitreacheditsdecisionto
acceptapleaonthelessercharge.ButsixcurrentandformerU.S.officials,aswellas
othersfamiliarwiththecase,providedthefirstdetailedlookattheinternaldebatesand
wranglingwithPetraeusslawyersthattookplacebeforetheretiredfour-stargeneral
enteredhisguiltyplea...Aspartoftheagreement,Petraeusadmittedthatheimproperly
removedandretainedhighlysensitiveinformationineightpersonalnotebooksthathegave
to[Paula]Broadwell.TheJusticeDepartmentsaidtheinformation,ifdisclosed,couldhave
caused'exceptionallygravedamage.'Officialssaidthenotebookscontainedcodewordsfor
secretintelligenceprograms,theidentitiesofcovertofficers,andinformationaboutwar
strategyanddeliberativediscussionswiththeNationalSecurityCouncil.Theplea
agreementleftsomeintheJusticeDepartmentangry,particularlyattheFBI,andsome
agentshavearguedprivatelythatitwillhamperfutureeffortstosecureprisontermsinleak
cases.Butothersinthegovernmentdefendedthedealastheonlyviableconclusiontoa
caseinwhichasuccessfulprosecutiononthemoreseriouschargeswasfarfromcertain.
'Nobodywasgoingtobehappywiththeoutcome,'aformerJusticeDepartment
officialsaid.'Therewasnothingaboutthiscasethatwastypical.'"

--Boominghealthcarecostsandgrowingdeficitscreatebudgetheadachefor
Republicans,byKelseySnell:CongressionalRepublicanshavepromisedtoinclude
deepspendingcutsintheirupcomingbudgetproposalsandnewdatashowingrising
federalhealthcarecostsandaloomingdeficitincreasewilllikelyaddtoconservatives
hungerforbigfundingreductions.Federalhealthcarecostsareexpectedtojumpto$936
billionin2016,outpacingthe$882billionprojectedspendingonSocialSecurity,according
toareportreleasedMondaybytheCongressionalBudgetOffice.Republicanswilllikely
usethelatestdatafromCBOtojustifyproposingdeepspendingcutstomandatory
spendingprograms,butGOPleaderscouldfacesometoughquestionswhenitcomesto
howmuchtoprovideforthe12annualspendingbillsbothPaulRyanandMitchMcConnell
wanttomoveearlythisyear.Republicanleadersagreedlatelastyeartoadealthat
allowsfor$30billioninnewdiscretionaryspendinginfiscal2017,anagreementthat
continuestorankleconservatives,particularlyintheHouse.

ConcepcionPicciotto,theprotesterwhomaintainedapeacevigiloutsidetheWhite
Houseformorethanthreedecades,ademonstrationwidelyconsideredtobethe
longest-runningactofpoliticalprotestinU.S.history,diedyesterdayatahousing
facilityoperatedbyNStreetVillage,anonprofitthatsupportshomelesswomenin
Washington.Shewasbelievedtobe80.Shehadrecentlysufferedafall.Picciottoa
SpanishimmigrantknowntomanyasConnieorConchitawastheprimaryguardian
oftheanti-nuclear-proliferationvigilstationedalongPennsylvaniaAvenue.
Picciottoin2010(APPhoto/CharlesDharapak)

SOCIALMEDIASPEEDREAD:

ZIGNALVISUAL:Sandersgotmorementionsonlineduringlastnights
Democraticforum:Here'satotalmentionschartduringtheeventonCNN,viaour
analyticspartnersatZignalLabs.NotehowSandersmentionsspikeduringhistimewith
ChrisCuomo,whileClinton'smentionsdidaswell.TheSandersspikewasbiggerthanthe
Clintonbounce:
Bothcandidateswereabletodrivetheirowncoverageduringthetownhall,astheselistsof
theirtoptweetsillustrate:
Picturesoftheday:

BenCohen,aco-founderofBen&Jerry's,unveiledanewicecreamflavorinhonorof
Sanders.It'scalled"Bernie'sYearning":
Here'stheflavordescription:

NASAreleasedthisphotoofastarclusterknownasTrumpler14,callingit"oneofthe
highestconcetrationsofmassive,luminousstarsintheentireMilkyWay":
HouseMajorityLeaderKevinMcCarthy(R-Calif.)stoppedatRandy'sDonutsnearLos
AngelesonhiswaybackhometoBakersfield,Calif.:
NASA'sEarthObservatorypostedthisphotooftheD.C.regionfromspace:
OnesnowlovergotcreativeusingthewindontheNationalMall:
MarkZuckerbergpostedthisphotoinhonorofhisfirstdaybackatworkafterpaternity
leave.Heasked,"WhatshouldIwear?":
Tweetsoftheday:

Watchout--HughHewittmightgetcreativewithhisoutfitatthenextdebate:
Sen.ClaireMcCaskill(D-Mo.)wascalledforjuryduty:
McCaskilllive-tweetedthewholeprocess:
Herlive-tweetscaptivatedMSNBC'sRachelMaddow:

TrumpisnotlettinggooftheCruz-was-born-in-Canadaissue:

TheWeeklyStandard'sBillKristolpredictedaCruzwininIowa:
Rep.SteveKing(R-Iowa)ismakinghisownfinalpushforCruz:
LiberalcommentatorDavidSirotasaidhe'sobservinga"freakout"ontheleftoverSanders
vs.Clinton:

CarlyFiorina'sdeputycampaignmanagerwaspleasedtosnagaflightfromDCtoIowa:
JimGilmore,whatareyoutalkingabout?
Instagramsoftheday:

BarbraStreisandmetwithSurgeonGeneralVivekMurthytotalkabouttheriskofheart
diseaseforwomen:
KasichgotahaircutatNotSoPlainJane'sinManchester,N.H.:
Rep.ErikPaulsen(R-Minn.)senttwo-dozeneggsdownalugeanddidn'tbreakasingleone
(clickforvideo):
GOODREADSFROMELSEWHERE:

--NewYorkTimes,"Beforeriseasoutsider,TedCruzplayedinsiderolein2000
recount,"byMattFlegenheimer:"Mr.Cruzrarelyinvokesthe2000raceandrecount.He
haslargelydisavowedthecomparativelymoderateBushwingoftheRepublicanPartyin
pursuitofconservativeideologicalpurity.Yethisinitialventureintopresidentialpoliticsisby
turnsaconfirmationofandacomplicationfortheprofessedCruzimage.Theraceinstalled
Mr.CruzasacreatureoftheRepublicanestablishmentbutalsohelpedstarthisdivorce
fromit.Hemadeplentyofenemiesamongpartyoperatives,accordingtointerviewswith
overadozenformercolleagues,thoughforreasonsthathadlittletodowithideology....By
theendoffivebleary-eyedweeksofhangingchadsandbutterflyballots,Mr.Cruzhad
aggressivelyworkedhislegalconnections,chafedwhenhefeltsidelinedbypartyveterans
andevenintheviewofsomewhodisparagehimhelpedensureMr.Bushsvictoryin
thecourts,toapoint.Infact,formercolleaguessay,theTedCruzof2000isentirely
recognizableinthecandidatenowaspiringtothepresidencyhimself,fusinghyper-
intelligence,cracklingambitionandalaundrylistofimpeccableinsidercredentialsthathe
oncetickedoffmorereadily.'HethoughtheshouldgettheNo.1policyjobintheWhite
House,andhewasextremelyambitious,'saidAriFleischer,Mr.Bushsformerspokesman.
'InTedscasein2000,itbackfired.'"

--HillarygivesBuzzFeedaninterview,Clintonwantstotalktoyouaboutloveand
kindness,byRubyCramer:HereishowHillaryClintonseesherself:radically
consistent,motivatedbyacorephilosophyvoicednowthroughtwowordsrarely
associatedwithher.Loveandkindness.Ifthissoundsunlikely,sheknowsit.For50years,
shesstruggledtoexplainthevaluesthatmotivateherinpubliclife,asacandidate,asa
person.Theonetimeshereallytriedto,intheearly1990s,shewasbrutallymocked.Inthe
viewofsomeofherclosestaides,Clintonneverfullyrecoveredfromthecriticalbacklash.
AsClintonseesit,shesreallytalkingaboutashorthandforherpersonalandpolitical
beliefs,foralltheimpulsesthatshapewhatshedoesandhowshedoesit.Evenifno
oneviewsherthatway.Evenifshesneverbeenquiteabletoexplainit.Evenifher
earnesteffortstoconnectwithpeoplearehamperednotjustbyherimage,butbytheactual
barriersofpubliclife.Aftersomanyyears,howdoyouconvinceanationfullofpeoplewho
thinktheyknoweverythingaboutyouthattheydont?

--BostonGlobe,"TrumpandSandersleadthepackwithbigpromises,"byMatt
ViserandAnnieLinskey:"TrumpandSandershavevirtuallynothingincommonexcept
foroutsiderstatusandpie-in-the-skypolicypriorities,whichtheysellwithhighlycharged
emotionalappealstargeteddirectlyatvoterseconomicandsocialanxieties.Trumpsayshe
wouldbuildawallalongtheSouthernborder,andmakeMexicopayforit....Hewould
temporarilybanMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates...HesayshewouldforceAppleto
buildallofitsproductsintheUnitedStates...InseemingdisregardofUSandglobaltrade
rules,hewantstoslapastiff,blankettariffonimportedChinesegoods....Sanders,theself-
describeddemocraticsocialist,hewsmorecloselytolegalrealitiesthanTrump,buthestill
campaignsonanaspirationalplatformofpoliticallongshots.Hevowstobreakupthebig
banks.Hewantstogiveeverystudenttheoptionofgoingtocollegewithoutpayingforit.
Heenvisionsahealthcaresysteminwhicheveryoneiscovered,includingundocumented
immigrants.Hewantstomandatethatemployerspayfornewparentstostayhomewith
theirbabiesforthreemonths.WhilehesaystheUnitedStatesshouldbemorelike
Denmark,heneglectstomentionthattheScandinaviancountryhasa55percentincome
taxrate.Theunrealisticnatureoftheirpromisesisastartlingfeatureofa2016campaign
fullofsurprises,ascandidateswhooncewouldhavebeendismissedasfringeplay
dominantroles."

--Politico,StateDept.watchdogtiedtoearlierClintonprobe,byJoshGerstein:A
lawyeroverseeinginvestigationsintoHillaryClintonsemailpracticeshasahistoryof
tanglingwiththeformerfirstladyspoliticaloperation:Hewasafederalprosecutorinvolved
inaprobethatled,adecadeago,totheunsuccessfulprosecutionofatopClinton
fundraisingaide.DavidSeidenowtheactingsenioradvisertotheStateDepartment
inspectorgeneralgatheredevidencethatsurfacedinthecaseagainstDavidRosen,the
nationalfinancedirectorofClintons2000Senatebid.SeidestietotheRosencaseis
fuelingconcernsamongClintonsalliesthatvariousinquiriesrelatingtoheruseofaprivate
emailserverarebeingskewedagainsther.However,theinspectorgeneralsofficedenies
anyconflictandsaysSeidesconnectiontotheearlierprosecutionwasaremoteone.

--Politico,"WhenCruzWantedtoBePartoftheEstablishment,byShane
GoldmacherandDanielLippman:"Fiveyearsago,asCruzplottedhispathtotheU.S.
Senate,theanti-establishmentcrusadersoughtaprivateaudiencewithandthebackingof
oneofthefacesofthemodernGOPestablishment:GeorgeW.Bush.Inanever-before-
reportedmeetinginBushsDallasoffice,Cruzbegantooutlinehis2012campaignplaybook
fortheformerpresidentCruzexplainedhowhewouldconsolidateconservatives
yearningforapoliticaloutsider,howhewouldoutflankthefront-runnerontheright,howhe
wouldproudlycarrythemantleoftheascendantteapartytovictoryoverentrenchedelites.
BushcutCruzoffbeforehecouldfinish.'Iguessyoudontwantmysupport,'Bush
interrupted.'Ted,whatthehelldoyouthinkIam?'"

HOTONTHELEFT HOTONTHERIGHT
ARepublicanstaterepresentative FoxNewssaidTrumpisafraidof
inTennesseesteppeddownas MegynKelly.FromPolitico:"Sooner
majoritywhipoverinappropriatetext orlaterDonaldTrump,evenifhes
messagestofemalecolleagues.The president,isgoingtohavetolearn
Tennesseansaysmanyofhis thathedoesntgettopickthe
colleaguesarenowcallingonhimto journalistswereverysurprised
resignaltogether. heswillingtoshowthatmuchfear
aboutbeingquestionedbyMegyn
Kelly,"anetworkspokespersonsaid.

DAYBOOK:

Sixdaysfromthecaucuses,it'sanIowaheavydayonthetrail.

HillaryspeaksinDecorahandCedarFalls,beforesheheadstoMarshalltown.

Trump,alsoinIowa,willbeinMarshalltownandIowaCitybeforeholdingarallyinIowa
City.

Sanders'bustourgoestoDesMoines.

CruzholdseventsinDesMoines,Albia,Centreville,Bloomfield,Ottumwa,Fairfield
andKeosauqua.

RubioisinPella,Oskaloosa,MarshalltownandWestDesMoines.

CarsoncampaignsinDesMoines.

KasichmakesstopsinNewBoston,RindgeandAmherst,N.H.

FiorinaheadstoColfax,IowaCityandMt.Pleasant.

SantorumcampaignsinWilliamsburg,Monticello,Dubuque,Anamosa,CedarRapidsand
Monroe,Iowa.

HuckabeegoestoAnkeny,Newton,PellaandIndianola.

AttheWhiteHouse:PresidentObamaandVicePresidentBidenwillmeetwithNancy
PelosiandHarryReidat11:15a.m.todiscussupcominglegislativepriorities.

QUOTEOFTHEDAY:
"ThewaythatHillaryClintonsbeentalkedaboutinthemediaissogendered
andrabidlysexistineverysingleportrayal,"saidLenaDunham,thestarof
"Girls"andaClintonsurrogate."Whetheritstheattacksonherpersonallifeor
theadjectivesthatareusedtodescribeherclothing,wehavetodoafull
reexamination.Ifwewereallowedtotalkaboutmalecandidateslikethat,Id
havea...fieldday.(Variety)

NEWSYOUCANUSEIFYOULIVEIND.C.:

--TheBostonCelticsclobberedtheWizards116-91.(JorgeCastillo)

--Theco-ownerofBethesda-basedTotalWine&More,DavidTrone,isseriously
thinkingaboutjoiningthecrowdedDemocraticprimaryforChrisVanHollens
Houseseat.(BillTurque)

--AmemberofTerryMcAuliffescabinetacceptedaninvitationfromthe
WashingtonRedskinstowatchagameinoneoftheirluxurysuites.Now
RepublicansarequestioningwhetherMcAuliffeandhisadministrationhaveviolatedoneof
hisexecutiveordersthatmembersofhiscabinetcannotacceptgiftsworthmorethan$100.
Theboxesarevaluedatbetween$18,000to$24,000.(LauraVozzella)

VIDEOSOFTHEDAY:

Thebullyisback.ChristiehectoredayounggirlwhoaskedhiminNewHampshirewhyhe
wasnotbackinNewJerseydealingwithrecoveryfromthestorm."It'salreadydone,"he
said."Idon'tknowwhatyouexpectmetodo.Youwantmetotogodowntherewithamop?"
ChristieChidesGirlfromNJWhoAsksWhyHe'sNotThere:"YouWantMetoGoDownTherewithaMop?"

Abettermomentforthegovernor,asheexplainswhyheisnotattackingTrump:

MarcoRubiolovesthrowingfootballs(inthelatestmade-to-go-viralvideofromIndependent
JournalReview):
HowToGetRevengeWithAFootballbyMarcoRubio

TianTianisstillenjoyingthesnowattheNationalZoo(clickforvideo):
Watch36hoursofSnowzillain30seconds,fromthetopofThePost'sbuilding:
Timelapse:Watch36hoursofSnowzilla'in30seconds

AtaSandersrally,awomanchokedupwhiledescribinghowshesurvivesonlessthan
$10,000ayear:

WomanatSandersrallyinIowachokesup

Hillary"walksitout."
HillaryWalksItOut.#news

WatchaclipfromBryceHarper'smovingspeechasheacceptedtheNLMVPAward,via
MLB.com,here.

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2016TheWashingtonPost|1301KStNW,WashingtonDC20071
From: Washingtonpost<email@e.washingtonpost.com>
Senttime: 01/26/201605:56:43AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: TheDaily202:HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry

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HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry
HillaryspeaksduringaDemocratictownhallinDesMoineslastnight.(PatrickT.Fallon/Bloomberg)

THEBIGIDEA:

HillaryClintonsaidlastnightthatshelovesthenewBernieSandersadsettoSimonand
Garfunkelsinging,TheyveallcometolookforAmerica.Thenshetriedtoofferareality
check.

Now,look,shesaidduringatownhallinDesMoines.Youcampaigninpoetry.You
governinprose.Andweneedalotmorepoetryinthiscampaign.ButIbelievethatImthe
betterpersontobetheDemocraticnominee,andthecommanderinchief.

Thecampaign-in-poetry,govern-in-prosetropewascoinedbythelateMarioCuomo,the
liberalNewYorkgovernor.WasitacoincidencethatCuomosson,Chris,wasmoderating
theeventforCNN?

ForClinton,itgavefreshlifetoamantrathatsheunsuccessfullytriedtouseasacudgel
againstthen-Sen.Obamain2008."Youcampaignwithpoetry,butyougovernwithprose,
sheoftensaid,downplayinghisrhetoricalabilities.

Inaninterviewpublishedearlieryesterday,PresidentObamadismissedcomparisonsof
Sanderstohimselforthiscampaignto2008."Idon'tthinkthat'strue,"ObamatoldPolitico.
HesaidthefactthatClintonknows"everypolicyinsideandoutcouldmakehermore
cautious,andhercampaignmoreprosethanpoetry."

Justlikelasttime,Clinton,lockedinaneck-and-neckraceinIowa,istryingtograbthe
mantleofchangelateinthegame.Lastnight,shehadamomentthatmighthelp.Afirst-time
caucus-goerwhosaidhesleaningtowardSanderstoldClintonthatmanyofhisfriendsfind
hertobedishonestandinauthentic.Ivebeenonthefrontlinesofchangeandprogress
sinceIwasyourage,shereplied.Ivetakenonthestatusquotimeandtimeagain.The
crowdlovedit.

Thetwonewsiestquotesfromthenight

Sandersonhisambitiousplans:"Yes,wewillraisetaxes.Yeswewill."

Clintononheremailserver:Imnotwillingtosayitwasanerrorinjudgmentbecause
nothingIdidwaswrong.

WHILEYOUWERESLEEPING:
--FederalofficesinD.C.willremainclosedtodayasthecityrecoversfromthe
snowstorm.Soiseverymajorschoolsystemintheregion.(Listhere.)

Metromostlyresumedrailserviceat5a.m.ButitcouldnotopentheSilverLine,and
atthelastminutethetransitagencysaidworkersareunabletorestoretrainserviceat
fourOrangeLinestationsthatwereexpectedtoreopen:Vienna,DunnLoring,West
FallsChurchandEastFallsChurch.Busservicewillbeexpandedoverthecourseof
today,althoughitisstillextremelylimited.(Thelatestontheclean-upeffortishere.)
Tragedy1:AsnowplowhitapedestrianwalkingdownthestreetinMontgomery
Countyabout8p.m.Themansinjuriesaredescribedassignificantbutnotlife
threatening.(MartinWeil)
Tragedy2:AfamilyinNewJerseywastryingtodigitswayoutwhenthechillbecame
toomuchtohandle.Themotherandherchildrenages1and3huddledinthe
carwiththeenginerunningtokeepwarm.Thekidsfathertriedtoclearthesnow
outside.Butthetailpipewascloggedwithsnow,pushingdeadlycarbonmonoxidegas
intothecar.Whenthefatherwenttocheckonthem,hecouldnotwakethemup.
(LindseyBever)
Today'sweather:Ourwarmingandmeltingtrendpicksupanothernotchas
temperaturessurgeaheadofanapproachingcoldfront,theCapitalWeatherGang
forecasts.Partlytomostlycloudyskieswithwarmermorningtemperaturesallowhighs
toreachthemid-to-upper40s.Aslightchanceofrainshowersshowupbylate
afternoonintoevening."

--Obamabannedsolitaryconfinementforjuvenilesinfederalprisons,sayingthe
practiceisoverusedandhasthepotentialfordevastatingpsychologicalconsequences.In
anop-edthatappearsintoday'sPost,thepresidentoutlinesaseriesofexecutiveactions
thatalsoprohibitfederalcorrectionsofficialsfrompunishingprisonerswhocommit"low-
levelinfractions"withsolitaryconfinement."Thenewrulesalsocallforexpandingtreatment
formentallyillprisoners,"JulietEilperinscoops."Whilethepresidentsreformsapply
broadlytotheroughly10,000federalinmatesservingtimeinsolitaryconfinement,thereare
onlyahandfulofjuvenileoffendersplacedinrestrictivehousingeachyear.Between
September2014andSeptember2015,federalauthoritieswerenotifiedofjust13juveniles
whowereputinsolitaryinitsprisons."Readtheop-edhere.

--Thecreatoroftheanti-PlannedParenthoodvideoswasindictedonfelony
charges."AHoustongrandjurythatwasinvestigatingaccusationsofcriminalmisconduct
againstPlannedParenthoodinsteadindictedtheleaderofananti-abortiongroupthat
recordedcovertvideosoftheorganizationsemployees,"DaniellePaquettereports."Harris
CountyDistrictAttorneyDevonAndersonsaidDavidDaleiden,thedirectoroftheCenterfor
MedicalProgress,facesafelonychargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecordanda
misdemeanorcountrelatedtobuyinghumantissue.SandraMerritt,oneofDaleidens
employees,wasalsoindictedonachargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecord.The
grandjuryclearedPlannedParenthoodGulfCoastofanywrongdoing.TexasGov.Greg
Abbottsaid,however,thattheinspectorgeneralofthestatesHealthandHumanServices
CommissionandtheTexasattorneygeneralsofficewouldcontinuetoinvestigatePlanned
Parenthoodsactions."

--OneweekbeforeIowa,abrandnewWashingtonPost/ABCNewspollshows
DonaldTrumpsolidifyinghisnationallead.RepublicansseeTrumpasthestrongest
candidateonmajorissuesandbyfarthemostelectableinthelargefieldofGOPhopefuls,
DanBalzandScottClementwrite.ThebusinessmogulleadsthenationalGOPfieldby16
points,at37percent,withTedCruzplacing2nd,at21percent.MarcoRubioisin3rdwith
11percent,followedbyBenCarson(7percent)andJebBush(5percent).Trumps
supportersaremorecommittedtohimthanthoseofhisrivals,with57percentsayingthey
willdefinitelyvoteforhim(comparedto34percentforalltheothercandidates).Inabig
shift,6of10RepublicansseeTrumpasmostlikelytowintheGOPnod,andTheDonald
leadsamongalldemographicgroups(includingwhiteevangelicals,thoughhisstrongest
supportcomesfromthosewithincomeunder$50,000).Trumpssuccessappearsbolstered
bythefindingthat9in10GOPerssaythecountryisseriouslyonthewrongtrack,and8in
10aredissatisfiedwiththefederalgovernment.Seethefullresultshere.

--TheresultsaremuchcloserinIowa,whereTrumpleadsCruzby2points(31to29
percent)amonglikelyRepublicancaucus-goers,accordingtonewnumbers
releasedthismorningbyQuinnipiacUniversity.Rubioplaces3rdwith13percentwith
noothercandidatebreaking7percent.TheresultsareprettymuchthesameastheQpolls
Jan.11survey.Only2percentareundecided,though39percentofthosewhopickeda
candidatemightchangetheirminds.

--TheDemocraticcontestintheHawkeyeStateisalsonarrowing.Clintonleads
Sandersby6points(48to42percent),downfrom14pointsinearlyDecember,according
toaFoxNewspollreleasedlastnight.Bernieisgainingamongmen(a2-pointDecember
edgegrewisa12-pointadvantagenow),whileHillaryislosinggroundamongthose45and
olderandthosewithcollegedegrees.Nationally,Clintonsnumbersarealsoslipping,with
49percentsupportingher(downfrom54percenttwoweeksago)comparedto37percent
forSanders(alsodown,from39percent).Undecidedsrosefrom2to10percent.TheFox
NewsPollsaysthattheClintonerosioncomespartiallyfromfallingsupportamongblack
voters,67percentofwhomnowbackher(comparedto78percenttwoweeksagoand84
percentinDecember).

WelcometoTheDaily202,withcontributionsfromMichaelSmith.Signuptoreceivethe
newsletter.Programmingnote:Wearelaunchinganewback-endsystemtoprepareand
publishthismorning.Itshouldnotimpactyouruserexperience.But,ifitdoes,pleaseflag
anyissuestopowerpost@washpost.com.Thankyouforreading.

GETSMARTFAST:

1. TheSupremeCourtruledthatteenagerssentencedtomandatorylifesentencesfor
murdermusthaveachancetoargueforrelease.Theruling,whichisretroactive,could
affectasmanyas1,500inmatesnationwide.(RobertBarnes)

2. SCOTUSalsoupheldaFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionrulethat
electricitygeneratorshate.The6-2decisionisawinforObamaandthe
environmentalists.(RobertBarnes)

3. NewHampshirehasdesignatedtwojudgestohearvoterandballotchallenges
duringtheFeb.9primary,whenanewvoterIDlawgoesintoeffect.(AP)

4. Atleast20werekilledwhenISISmilitantssetoffmultiplebombsatagovernment-run
securitycheckpointinHoms,Syria.(AP)

5. TheTalibanclaimedresponsibilityafteranAfghanpolicemanfatallyshot10ofhis
fellowofficersinKandaharbeforefleeing.(AP)

6. TheU.N.willconveneSyrianpeacetalksonFriday,butPresidentBasharal-
Assadsgovernmentandhisopponentswillnolongermeetface-to-face,whichwas
partoftheoriginalplan.(LizSly)

7. JohnKerry,meetingwithCambodianleaders,expressedconcernoverthe
governmentsrecordonhumanrightsandcorruption.Thevisitfocusedontradeand
investment.(CarolMorello)
8. Theownerofagunshopandhissonwerekilledduringashootoutwithtwo
customers,whowereinjuredinthegunfire,afteranargumentovera$25fee.(Sarah
Larimer)

9. Federalauthoritiesaresearchingforthreemenwhoescapedfromamaximum-
securityprisoninSouthernCalifornia.(PeterHolley)

10. AirbusisoneofseveralcompaniesalreadytryingtosellproductstoIrannowthat
economicsanctionshavebeenlifted.(NewYorkTimes)

11. TheUniversityofMissouriprofessorwhocalledfor"muscle"topushoutstudent
journaliststryingtocovercampusprotestswaschargedwithassault.(SusanSvrluga)

12. Indianaseconomylostasmuchas$60millionin2015whenseveralorganizations
decidednottohosteventsinIndianapolisbecauseofthestatescontroversialreligious
libertylaw.(AP)

13. ScientistsfoundevidenceofamasscareinKenya10,000yearsago,makingitthe
oldestactofhumanwarfare.(Reuters)

POWERPLAYERSINTHENEWS:

1. Sen.EdwardMarkey(D-Mass.)putaholdonPresidentObama'snomineetohead
theFDAbecausehewantstheagencytodomoreabouttheabuseofopioid
painkillers.(BradyDennis)
2. MartinShkreli,theex-biotechexecutivefacingfraudcharges,gotpermissionfroma
judgetotraveltoD.C.totestifyondrugpricingbeforetheHouseCommitteeon
OversightandGovernmentReformonFeb.4.(Bloomberg)
3. ScottWalkerlistedhisthree-bedroomWisconsinhousefor$338,000.Helivesinthe
governor'smanion,andtweetedthathe'slookingto"downsize"nowthatheandhis
wifeareemptynesters.(Politico)
4. ZephyrTeachout,theprotestcandidateagainstGov.AndrewCuomo(D-N.Y.)inthe
2014primary,isrunningtosucceedretiringRepublicanRep.Chris
Gibson.(PoughkeepsieJournal)
5. GeorgeH.W.Bushandhiswife,Barbara,calledNikkiHaleytocongratulateherfor
herStateoftheUnionresponse.(CharlestonPostandCourier)
6. BritishexplorerHenryWorsley,attemptingthefirstunassistedsolocrossingof
Antarctica,died71daysafterstartinghisjourney.Hewaswithin30milesofhis
target.(BrianMurphy)

MOREONTHEREPUBLICANRACE--

CRUZ,SLIPPING,ISTRYINGTOREGAINHISFOOTINGINIOWAAGAINSTTRUMP:

1. Hiscampaignspentyesterdaydescribinghimas"theunderdog."(RobertCostaand
PhilipRucker)
2. TheTexassenatorwarnedagroupofpastorsinaclosed-doormeetingthat,"IfDonald
winsIowa,herightnowhasasubstantialleadinNewHampshire.Ifhewentontowin
NewHampshireaswelltheresaverygoodchancehecouldbeunstoppableand
beournominee.AndthenextsevendaysinIowawilldeterminewhetherornotthat
happens."(KatieZezima)
3. TheCruzcampaignlaunchedanattackadagainstTrump's"NewYorkvalues."It
includesanoldclipofTrumpsayingthatheispro-choiceacrosstheboardandsaying
"howstupidarethepeopleofIowa."(Watchhere.)
4. ACruzSuperPAClaunchedthreeattackadsagainstTrumpaspartofa$2.5million
buy.Onealsohighlightshispastsupportforpartial-birthabortion,usingthesame
"MeetthePress"interviewasinthecampaign'sad.Anotherspotshowsaclipof
TrumppraisingCruzin2014.AthirdslamsTrumpforbackinguniversalhealthcare,or
"Trumpcare."
5. Aseparatepro-CruzPAClaunchedaradioadinIowatodefendhisethanolstance.
(DavidWeigel)
6. MarcoRubioattackedCruzonFoxNewsforhislawclientswhileinprivate
practice.WhenTedCruzhadtochooseasalawyer,hewaschoosingtorepresent
theChinese,"Rubiosaid."HerepresentedaChinesecompanythatstolesecretsand
aproductfromanAmericancompany.Soyoucan'tgoaroundsayingyou'retoughon
Chinabutthenhavealegalrecordinwhichyouwerepaidalotofmoneytodefendthe
ChinesewhohadtakenaproductawayfromanAmericanunjustly,unfairlyand
illegally.(Watchhere.)

THEDAILYTRUMP:

1. AtopaidetoSen.JeffSessions(R-Ala.),StephenMiller,willjoinTrumpscampaign
asaseniorpolicyadviser.(Costa)

2. TheformerSouthCarolinaRepublicanstaterepresentativewhocalledNikkiHaleya
raghead,JakeKnotts,endorsedTrump.(PhilipRucker)
3. TrumptauntedMichaelBloombergonCNN:"I'dbeathim.Iwouldlovehimtodoit
actually.Youknow,weusedtobefriends.Iguesswe'renotfriendsanymore."

4. DonaldRumsfeld,alongtimeadversaryofBush41buttheDefenseSecretaryto
Bush43,saidJebisnotconnectingbecausetherearesomepeoplethatare
uncomfortablewithadynasty.RumsfeldtoldtheTodayshowthatTrumphasa
touchedanerveinourcountry.

KASICHRISING,CHRISTIEFADINGINNEWHAMPSHIRE:

1. TheBostonGlobeendorsedKasich.TheBostonHeraldendorsedChristie.
2. Kasichisgoingall-inontheGraniteState.AfterThursday'sIowadebate,hewillnot
leaveNewHampshireuntiltheprimary.Anotherpollyesterday,fromFranklinPierce
University,puttheOhiogovernoraheadoftherestoftheestablishmentcontendersin
thestate,with12percent.(EdO'Keefe)
3. Christie'sfavorabilityhasdroppedfrom53%lastmonthto41%nowamongNew
HampshireRepublicans,perCNN:"Hehasbeencrucifiedoverthelastfewweeks,"
saidMikeDennehy,anunaffiliatedRepublicanoperativeinthestate."It'sashamefor
Christiebecausehereallydidhavemomentum."Dennehycamehomefromworkone
nighttotwocampaignmailersattackingChristie'srecord.Heshruggeditoff,walked
insideandflippedonhisPandora.Thefirstadtointerrupthisstreamingmusic:an
attackonChristie.Helatergrabbedhisremoteandflippedonthenews.Therewere
back-to-backadstargetingChristie.(CNN)

MOREONTHEDEMOCRATICRACE:

1. SouthCarolinaStateRep.JustinT.Bamberg,thelawyerforWalterScott's
family,switchedhissupportfromClintontoSanders.(VanessaWilliams)
2. BillwillflytoIowaonThursdayforafour-cityswing:Waverly,MountVernon,
WashingtonandOttumwa.(AbbyPhillip)

3. Hillarys2008campaignmanager,PattiSolisDoyle,consideredquittingherpost
asanaidetotheFirstLadyin1998duringtheMonicaLewinskyscandalbutresolved
tostay.Itwasas----ythingtodotoher.Buthedidit.Shedidn'tdoit,"SolisDoyle
saidinaninterviewwithDavidAxelrodforhispodcast.Ithought,shedidn'tdo
anything.Heisthejerkhere.AndwhywouldIpunishherbyquitting?Butwhathe
didwasabsolutelyunacceptableformanyoftheyoungwomenwhowereworkingon
thatstaff.(CNNPodcast)

4. AsuperPACfoundedbyGOPmegadonorJoeRicketts,EndingSpendingAction
Fund,islaunchinga$600,000TVbuyinIowathatcallsSanderstooliberal.The
spot,firstreportedbytheNewYorkTimes,isclearlyaimedathelpingboostSanders
overClinton,highlightinghissupportfortuition-freecollege,single-payerhealthcare
andtaxincreasesonthesuper-rich.

TooLiberal

WAPOHIGHLIGHTS:
ChrisChristiehandsoverhispentoSenatePresidentStephenSweeneyaftersigninglegislationturningover
controlofAtlanticCity'scasinodistricttothestate,intheunfinishedlobbyofthestalledRevelCasinoinFeb.
2011.(TomGralish/StaffPhotographer)

--ChristiefailedtoarrestAtlanticCity'sdelineinthelatestepisodeofourDecider
series.-->AtlanticCitysMr.Fix-It,byDavidFahrenthold:Christiechoseto
interveneaggressivelyinAtlanticCitystroubles,believingthatabettergovernoranda
littlemoregovernmentcouldovercomeitssteepeconomicdecline.Sofirst,Christiehad
thestatetakeoverhalfofthecity.Butthatwasntenough.Sohetriedanewcasino.But
thatwasntenough.SohetriedInternetbetting.Butthatwasntenough...Despite
Christiesefforts,fourofthe12casinosshutdown.About7,000jobswerelost.His
interventionwentsobadlythatthestatelegislatureisconsideringwhethertorevokeAtlantic
Cityslastbestlifeline,itsstate-sanctionedmonopolyongambling.Themayorafellow
Republican,exasperatedwithChristieisconsideringmunicipalbankruptcy.Christies
decisiontointerveneherereflectshisstyleofgoverning:Confident.Pugnacious.
Braggadocious.Andsometimesunwillingtoacknowledgethelimitsofhispower.

--"HowDavidPetraeusavoidedfelonychargesandpossibleprisontime,"byAdam
Goldman:"TheJusticeDepartmenthasneverdiscussedhowitreacheditsdecisionto
acceptapleaonthelessercharge.ButsixcurrentandformerU.S.officials,aswellas
othersfamiliarwiththecase,providedthefirstdetailedlookattheinternaldebatesand
wranglingwithPetraeusslawyersthattookplacebeforetheretiredfour-stargeneral
enteredhisguiltyplea...Aspartoftheagreement,Petraeusadmittedthatheimproperly
removedandretainedhighlysensitiveinformationineightpersonalnotebooksthathegave
to[Paula]Broadwell.TheJusticeDepartmentsaidtheinformation,ifdisclosed,couldhave
caused'exceptionallygravedamage.'Officialssaidthenotebookscontainedcodewordsfor
secretintelligenceprograms,theidentitiesofcovertofficers,andinformationaboutwar
strategyanddeliberativediscussionswiththeNationalSecurityCouncil.Theplea
agreementleftsomeintheJusticeDepartmentangry,particularlyattheFBI,andsome
agentshavearguedprivatelythatitwillhamperfutureeffortstosecureprisontermsinleak
cases.Butothersinthegovernmentdefendedthedealastheonlyviableconclusiontoa
caseinwhichasuccessfulprosecutiononthemoreseriouschargeswasfarfromcertain.
'Nobodywasgoingtobehappywiththeoutcome,'aformerJusticeDepartment
officialsaid.'Therewasnothingaboutthiscasethatwastypical.'"

--Boominghealthcarecostsandgrowingdeficitscreatebudgetheadachefor
Republicans,byKelseySnell:CongressionalRepublicanshavepromisedtoinclude
deepspendingcutsintheirupcomingbudgetproposalsandnewdatashowingrising
federalhealthcarecostsandaloomingdeficitincreasewilllikelyaddtoconservatives
hungerforbigfundingreductions.Federalhealthcarecostsareexpectedtojumpto$936
billionin2016,outpacingthe$882billionprojectedspendingonSocialSecurity,according
toareportreleasedMondaybytheCongressionalBudgetOffice.Republicanswilllikely
usethelatestdatafromCBOtojustifyproposingdeepspendingcutstomandatory
spendingprograms,butGOPleaderscouldfacesometoughquestionswhenitcomesto
howmuchtoprovideforthe12annualspendingbillsbothPaulRyanandMitchMcConnell
wanttomoveearlythisyear.Republicanleadersagreedlatelastyeartoadealthat
allowsfor$30billioninnewdiscretionaryspendinginfiscal2017,anagreementthat
continuestorankleconservatives,particularlyintheHouse.

ConcepcionPicciotto,theprotesterwhomaintainedapeacevigiloutsidetheWhite
Houseformorethanthreedecades,ademonstrationwidelyconsideredtobethe
longest-runningactofpoliticalprotestinU.S.history,diedyesterdayatahousing
facilityoperatedbyNStreetVillage,anonprofitthatsupportshomelesswomenin
Washington.Shewasbelievedtobe80.Shehadrecentlysufferedafall.Picciottoa
SpanishimmigrantknowntomanyasConnieorConchitawastheprimaryguardian
oftheanti-nuclear-proliferationvigilstationedalongPennsylvaniaAvenue.
Picciottoin2010(APPhoto/CharlesDharapak)

SOCIALMEDIASPEEDREAD:

ZIGNALVISUAL:Sandersgotmorementionsonlineduringlastnights
Democraticforum:Here'satotalmentionschartduringtheeventonCNN,viaour
analyticspartnersatZignalLabs.NotehowSandersmentionsspikeduringhistimewith
ChrisCuomo,whileClinton'smentionsdidaswell.TheSandersspikewasbiggerthanthe
Clintonbounce:
Bothcandidateswereabletodrivetheirowncoverageduringthetownhall,astheselistsof
theirtoptweetsillustrate:
Picturesoftheday:

BenCohen,aco-founderofBen&Jerry's,unveiledanewicecreamflavorinhonorof
Sanders.It'scalled"Bernie'sYearning":
Here'stheflavordescription:

NASAreleasedthisphotoofastarclusterknownasTrumpler14,callingit"oneofthe
highestconcetrationsofmassive,luminousstarsintheentireMilkyWay":
HouseMajorityLeaderKevinMcCarthy(R-Calif.)stoppedatRandy'sDonutsnearLos
AngelesonhiswaybackhometoBakersfield,Calif.:
NASA'sEarthObservatorypostedthisphotooftheD.C.regionfromspace:
OnesnowlovergotcreativeusingthewindontheNationalMall:
MarkZuckerbergpostedthisphotoinhonorofhisfirstdaybackatworkafterpaternity
leave.Heasked,"WhatshouldIwear?":
Tweetsoftheday:

Watchout--HughHewittmightgetcreativewithhisoutfitatthenextdebate:
Sen.ClaireMcCaskill(D-Mo.)wascalledforjuryduty:
McCaskilllive-tweetedthewholeprocess:
Herlive-tweetscaptivatedMSNBC'sRachelMaddow:

TrumpisnotlettinggooftheCruz-was-born-in-Canadaissue:

TheWeeklyStandard'sBillKristolpredictedaCruzwininIowa:
Rep.SteveKing(R-Iowa)ismakinghisownfinalpushforCruz:
LiberalcommentatorDavidSirotasaidhe'sobservinga"freakout"ontheleftoverSanders
vs.Clinton:

CarlyFiorina'sdeputycampaignmanagerwaspleasedtosnagaflightfromDCtoIowa:
JimGilmore,whatareyoutalkingabout?
Instagramsoftheday:

BarbraStreisandmetwithSurgeonGeneralVivekMurthytotalkabouttheriskofheart
diseaseforwomen:
KasichgotahaircutatNotSoPlainJane'sinManchester,N.H.:
Rep.ErikPaulsen(R-Minn.)senttwo-dozeneggsdownalugeanddidn'tbreakasingleone
(clickforvideo):
GOODREADSFROMELSEWHERE:

--NewYorkTimes,"Beforeriseasoutsider,TedCruzplayedinsiderolein2000
recount,"byMattFlegenheimer:"Mr.Cruzrarelyinvokesthe2000raceandrecount.He
haslargelydisavowedthecomparativelymoderateBushwingoftheRepublicanPartyin
pursuitofconservativeideologicalpurity.Yethisinitialventureintopresidentialpoliticsisby
turnsaconfirmationofandacomplicationfortheprofessedCruzimage.Theraceinstalled
Mr.CruzasacreatureoftheRepublicanestablishmentbutalsohelpedstarthisdivorce
fromit.Hemadeplentyofenemiesamongpartyoperatives,accordingtointerviewswith
overadozenformercolleagues,thoughforreasonsthathadlittletodowithideology....By
theendoffivebleary-eyedweeksofhangingchadsandbutterflyballots,Mr.Cruzhad
aggressivelyworkedhislegalconnections,chafedwhenhefeltsidelinedbypartyveterans
andevenintheviewofsomewhodisparagehimhelpedensureMr.Bushsvictoryin
thecourts,toapoint.Infact,formercolleaguessay,theTedCruzof2000isentirely
recognizableinthecandidatenowaspiringtothepresidencyhimself,fusinghyper-
intelligence,cracklingambitionandalaundrylistofimpeccableinsidercredentialsthathe
oncetickedoffmorereadily.'HethoughtheshouldgettheNo.1policyjobintheWhite
House,andhewasextremelyambitious,'saidAriFleischer,Mr.Bushsformerspokesman.
'InTedscasein2000,itbackfired.'"

--HillarygivesBuzzFeedaninterview,Clintonwantstotalktoyouaboutloveand
kindness,byRubyCramer:HereishowHillaryClintonseesherself:radically
consistent,motivatedbyacorephilosophyvoicednowthroughtwowordsrarely
associatedwithher.Loveandkindness.Ifthissoundsunlikely,sheknowsit.For50years,
shesstruggledtoexplainthevaluesthatmotivateherinpubliclife,asacandidate,asa
person.Theonetimeshereallytriedto,intheearly1990s,shewasbrutallymocked.Inthe
viewofsomeofherclosestaides,Clintonneverfullyrecoveredfromthecriticalbacklash.
AsClintonseesit,shesreallytalkingaboutashorthandforherpersonalandpolitical
beliefs,foralltheimpulsesthatshapewhatshedoesandhowshedoesit.Evenifno
oneviewsherthatway.Evenifshesneverbeenquiteabletoexplainit.Evenifher
earnesteffortstoconnectwithpeoplearehamperednotjustbyherimage,butbytheactual
barriersofpubliclife.Aftersomanyyears,howdoyouconvinceanationfullofpeoplewho
thinktheyknoweverythingaboutyouthattheydont?

--BostonGlobe,"TrumpandSandersleadthepackwithbigpromises,"byMatt
ViserandAnnieLinskey:"TrumpandSandershavevirtuallynothingincommonexcept
foroutsiderstatusandpie-in-the-skypolicypriorities,whichtheysellwithhighlycharged
emotionalappealstargeteddirectlyatvoterseconomicandsocialanxieties.Trumpsayshe
wouldbuildawallalongtheSouthernborder,andmakeMexicopayforit....Hewould
temporarilybanMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates...HesayshewouldforceAppleto
buildallofitsproductsintheUnitedStates...InseemingdisregardofUSandglobaltrade
rules,hewantstoslapastiff,blankettariffonimportedChinesegoods....Sanders,theself-
describeddemocraticsocialist,hewsmorecloselytolegalrealitiesthanTrump,buthestill
campaignsonanaspirationalplatformofpoliticallongshots.Hevowstobreakupthebig
banks.Hewantstogiveeverystudenttheoptionofgoingtocollegewithoutpayingforit.
Heenvisionsahealthcaresysteminwhicheveryoneiscovered,includingundocumented
immigrants.Hewantstomandatethatemployerspayfornewparentstostayhomewith
theirbabiesforthreemonths.WhilehesaystheUnitedStatesshouldbemorelike
Denmark,heneglectstomentionthattheScandinaviancountryhasa55percentincome
taxrate.Theunrealisticnatureoftheirpromisesisastartlingfeatureofa2016campaign
fullofsurprises,ascandidateswhooncewouldhavebeendismissedasfringeplay
dominantroles."

--Politico,StateDept.watchdogtiedtoearlierClintonprobe,byJoshGerstein:A
lawyeroverseeinginvestigationsintoHillaryClintonsemailpracticeshasahistoryof
tanglingwiththeformerfirstladyspoliticaloperation:Hewasafederalprosecutorinvolved
inaprobethatled,adecadeago,totheunsuccessfulprosecutionofatopClinton
fundraisingaide.DavidSeidenowtheactingsenioradvisertotheStateDepartment
inspectorgeneralgatheredevidencethatsurfacedinthecaseagainstDavidRosen,the
nationalfinancedirectorofClintons2000Senatebid.SeidestietotheRosencaseis
fuelingconcernsamongClintonsalliesthatvariousinquiriesrelatingtoheruseofaprivate
emailserverarebeingskewedagainsther.However,theinspectorgeneralsofficedenies
anyconflictandsaysSeidesconnectiontotheearlierprosecutionwasaremoteone.

--Politico,"WhenCruzWantedtoBePartoftheEstablishment,byShane
GoldmacherandDanielLippman:"Fiveyearsago,asCruzplottedhispathtotheU.S.
Senate,theanti-establishmentcrusadersoughtaprivateaudiencewithandthebackingof
oneofthefacesofthemodernGOPestablishment:GeorgeW.Bush.Inanever-before-
reportedmeetinginBushsDallasoffice,Cruzbegantooutlinehis2012campaignplaybook
fortheformerpresidentCruzexplainedhowhewouldconsolidateconservatives
yearningforapoliticaloutsider,howhewouldoutflankthefront-runnerontheright,howhe
wouldproudlycarrythemantleoftheascendantteapartytovictoryoverentrenchedelites.
BushcutCruzoffbeforehecouldfinish.'Iguessyoudontwantmysupport,'Bush
interrupted.'Ted,whatthehelldoyouthinkIam?'"

HOTONTHELEFT HOTONTHERIGHT
ARepublicanstaterepresentative FoxNewssaidTrumpisafraidof
inTennesseesteppeddownas MegynKelly.FromPolitico:"Sooner
majoritywhipoverinappropriatetext orlaterDonaldTrump,evenifhes
messagestofemalecolleagues.The president,isgoingtohavetolearn
Tennesseansaysmanyofhis thathedoesntgettopickthe
colleaguesarenowcallingonhimto journalistswereverysurprised
resignaltogether. heswillingtoshowthatmuchfear
aboutbeingquestionedbyMegyn
Kelly,"anetworkspokespersonsaid.

DAYBOOK:

Sixdaysfromthecaucuses,it'sanIowaheavydayonthetrail.

HillaryspeaksinDecorahandCedarFalls,beforesheheadstoMarshalltown.

Trump,alsoinIowa,willbeinMarshalltownandIowaCitybeforeholdingarallyinIowa
City.

Sanders'bustourgoestoDesMoines.

CruzholdseventsinDesMoines,Albia,Centreville,Bloomfield,Ottumwa,Fairfield
andKeosauqua.

RubioisinPella,Oskaloosa,MarshalltownandWestDesMoines.

CarsoncampaignsinDesMoines.

KasichmakesstopsinNewBoston,RindgeandAmherst,N.H.

FiorinaheadstoColfax,IowaCityandMt.Pleasant.

SantorumcampaignsinWilliamsburg,Monticello,Dubuque,Anamosa,CedarRapidsand
Monroe,Iowa.

HuckabeegoestoAnkeny,Newton,PellaandIndianola.

AttheWhiteHouse:PresidentObamaandVicePresidentBidenwillmeetwithNancy
PelosiandHarryReidat11:15a.m.todiscussupcominglegislativepriorities.

QUOTEOFTHEDAY:
"ThewaythatHillaryClintonsbeentalkedaboutinthemediaissogendered
andrabidlysexistineverysingleportrayal,"saidLenaDunham,thestarof
"Girls"andaClintonsurrogate."Whetheritstheattacksonherpersonallifeor
theadjectivesthatareusedtodescribeherclothing,wehavetodoafull
reexamination.Ifwewereallowedtotalkaboutmalecandidateslikethat,Id
havea...fieldday.(Variety)

NEWSYOUCANUSEIFYOULIVEIND.C.:

--TheBostonCelticsclobberedtheWizards116-91.(JorgeCastillo)

--Theco-ownerofBethesda-basedTotalWine&More,DavidTrone,isseriously
thinkingaboutjoiningthecrowdedDemocraticprimaryforChrisVanHollens
Houseseat.(BillTurque)

--AmemberofTerryMcAuliffescabinetacceptedaninvitationfromthe
WashingtonRedskinstowatchagameinoneoftheirluxurysuites.Now
RepublicansarequestioningwhetherMcAuliffeandhisadministrationhaveviolatedoneof
hisexecutiveordersthatmembersofhiscabinetcannotacceptgiftsworthmorethan$100.
Theboxesarevaluedatbetween$18,000to$24,000.(LauraVozzella)

VIDEOSOFTHEDAY:

Thebullyisback.ChristiehectoredayounggirlwhoaskedhiminNewHampshirewhyhe
wasnotbackinNewJerseydealingwithrecoveryfromthestorm."It'salreadydone,"he
said."Idon'tknowwhatyouexpectmetodo.Youwantmetotogodowntherewithamop?"
ChristieChidesGirlfromNJWhoAsksWhyHe'sNotThere:"YouWantMetoGoDownTherewithaMop?"

Abettermomentforthegovernor,asheexplainswhyheisnotattackingTrump:

MarcoRubiolovesthrowingfootballs(inthelatestmade-to-go-viralvideofromIndependent
JournalReview):
HowToGetRevengeWithAFootballbyMarcoRubio

TianTianisstillenjoyingthesnowattheNationalZoo(clickforvideo):
Watch36hoursofSnowzillain30seconds,fromthetopofThePost'sbuilding:
Timelapse:Watch36hoursofSnowzilla'in30seconds

AtaSandersrally,awomanchokedupwhiledescribinghowshesurvivesonlessthan
$10,000ayear:

WomanatSandersrallyinIowachokesup

Hillary"walksitout."
HillaryWalksItOut.#news

WatchaclipfromBryceHarper'smovingspeechasheacceptedtheNLMVPAward,via
MLB.com,here.

YouarereceivingthisemailbecauseyousignedupfortheTheDaily202newsletterorwereregisteredonwashingtonpost.com.For
additionalfreenewslettersortomanageyournewsletters,clickhere.

Werespectyourprivacy.Ifyoubelievethatthisemailhasbeensenttoyouinerror,oryounolongerwishtoreceiveemailfrom
TheWashingtonPost,clickhere.Contactusforhelp.

2016TheWashingtonPost|1301KStNW,WashingtonDC20071
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/19/201601:43:33PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere![MUST
Subject: SEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EU
...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,January19,20161:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere!
[MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUST
LISTEN]..........[WD]EU...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at4:29PM
Subject:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there![MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA
[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EUDEZINFORMREVIEW11[MUSTNOTE].....ANDABELATEDFPOvernightBrieffor1-
19-16[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at11:48AM
Subject:WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there!(seelengthyVIDEO)
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there!(seelengthyVIDEO)

URL:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/tv/topics/71484.html?print=1

Aspunishmenttheauthoritieshavebeendumpingallthesnowfromsurroundingdistrictsnexttothe
campfurtherisolatingtheprotesters(shownonvideo).

And:InRussiaSOCIALPROTESTShavebegunanew,http://echo.msk.ru/news/1696504-echo.html

InspiredbythesuccessfulprotestactionofPENSIONERSinKrasnodarandSochi,studentsin
NOVGORODarethreateningamajorstrikeovertheremovalordownsizingoftheirtransportation
benefits.

And:ForthedeclarationoftheNovgorodstudents,signedby1052supporters,see:Studencheskii
proezdnoivernut!VELIKIINOVGOROD,http://www.change.org/

And:StudentsinGreatNovgorodhavethreatenedtogooutontothestreets,
http://tvrain.ru/news/proezd-401936/

And:Russianoligarchs[Abramovich,Usmanov,Potaninandothers]lose$11bninjusttendaysduring
oilpricecrash,telegraph.co.uk,1/18

And:InU.S.money-launderingcase,shadesofRussianCORRUPTION,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27494612.html

And:OnconditionsintheLUHANSKbasements(controlledbytheseparatists)whereUkrainian
prisonersofwarhavebeentormentedanddied:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71465.html?print=1

And:The[Russian]CommissionontheDefenseofStateSecretshasdeclinedtomakepublicthe
archivesoftheKGB,http://grani.ru/Politics/FSB/m.247829.html

Thearchivesofthesecretpolicefor1917-1991willbepreservedinsecret.Thesedocumentsconcerning
theworkofthechekistyremainactual.

And:DutchMPssuspectRUSSIANTRACEinreferendumonAssociationwithUkraine,unian.info,
1/19

And:StateDumaSpeaker[NARYSHKIN]suggestsEUsanctionKievoverMinskviolations,
themsocowtimes.com,1/19

And:HillaryCLINTON:newRESETpossibleinU.S.-Russianrelationship,themoscowtimes.com,
1/19

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at10:00AM
Subject:Ukraine:USEKyivACKPNYTWoE[ANDERSASLUND"MUSTREAD':7KeyReformsforUAin2016]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

AtlanticCouncil

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/seven-key-reforms-for-ukraine-in-2016

JANUARY18,2016

SevenKeyReformsforUkrainein2016

BYANDERSSLUND

AfterOrthodoxChristmas,IspentafewdaysinKyiv.Itisquitestrikinghowthemoodhaschangedinapositivedirection.The
2016budgetandthemodifiedtaxcodewereadoptedonDecember24.Aftertwoweeksofwell-deservedrest,thereisasudden
realizationthatUkraineaccomplishedmanyimportanteconomicreformsin2015.Admittedly,manyUkrainiansrepeatthemantra
thatnoreformshavetakenplace,butthatisnottrue.Hundredsofsensiblereformlawshavebeenadoptedandtheirbreadthis
impressive.

Energyreformhasgreatlyreducedpricediscrepanciesandlimitedtheopportunitiesforcorruptarbitragebetweenstate-controlled
andfreeprices,whilesharplyreducingstatesubsidies.Thebudgethasbeenbroughtclosetobalance,andmajorinternational
financingtogetherwithdebtrestructuringwasaccomplished.Taxreformhasbeenadopted.Thebankingsystemisbeingcleaned
upasmorethanone-thirdofthebankshavebeenclosed.Afterasubstantialdevaluation,theexchangeratehasstabilizedand
internationalcurrencyreserveshaveincreasedconsiderably.Electronicprocurementhasbeenwidelyintroduced.Some
deregulationhasoccurred.

YetUkrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.The
countryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.
Nevertheless,thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbe
in2016.

1.Themainpriorityisreformoftheprosecutionandcourts.Ukraineadoptedalawonprosecution,butProsecutorGeneralViktor
Shokinmanagedtotakecontrolofthereformprocess,minimizingthechange.Shokinhastogoandthereformoftheprosecution
needstostartanewundernewleadership.Similarly,thecountry's10,000judgesneedtobelustratedandnewjudgesappointedin
areformedcourtsystem.
2.Muchwasaccomplishedinenergyreformin2015,andin2016itshouldbecompleted.Gasandelectricitypricesshouldbe
unifiedatamarketlevelandsetunderthecontrolofanindependentregulatorfromApril1andagasandelectricitymarketshould
finallybeallowedtodevelop.Taxationofindependentoilandgasproducersmustbemadereasonable,andtheirregulationshould
besimplified.Socialsubsidiesaregiventothepoorestthirdofthepopulation,butnofurthersubsidiesshouldbegiventoenergy
companies.

3.Ukraine's1,833state-ownedcompaniesareadenofcorruption.Thevastmajority,1,600,areoflittlevaluejustextracting
subsidiesfromthestate.Theyshouldbesoldoffataregionallevelandthepaymentsgiventotheregionalgovernmentstomotivate
themtoafasterselloff.Thetop100stateenterprises,mainlyinenergyandtransportation,haverealvalueandtheirprivatization
shouldbeopentoforeignbidderswheneverpossible.Thesesalesmustbetransparentandcompetitiveaimingbothathighprices
andsoundrestructuring.About120armamentcompaniesbelongtoUkroboronpromandneedtobeconsideredaseparate
nationalsecuritymatter.Forsuchreasons,Russianentitiesneedtobeblockedfromparticipationinprivatizationandforeignentities
shouldhavetransparentultimatebeneficiaries.

4.Ukrainerequiresprofoundcivilservicereform,whichhasbeenlegislatedandwillcomeintoforceinthespring.Itisvitalthatitis
properlyimplemented.Salariesofcivilservantsmustberaisedsothattheycanliveontheirsalaries.Acleardivisionneedstobe
madebetweenpoliticalandcivilserviceappointments.Entryintothecivilserviceshouldtakeplacethroughcompetitiveexams.
Promotionsshouldbebasedonmerit,notseniority.Standardrulesagainstconflictsofinterestshouldbeintroduced.TheEuropean
UnionhasofferedsubstantialfinancialandtechnicalsupportandthisissomethingthatEUcountriesdowell.

Thevastadministrationofthecabinetofministersof700peoplethattraditionallyhasduplicatedandhamperedtheworkofthe
ministriesshouldbedismantledandreplacedwithalimitedapparatusforcoordination.Thesystemofrequiringtwentytothirty
signaturesoneachmajordecisionmustend,andministriesshouldobtainrealresponsibility.

5.Thebudgetdeficithasbeenbroughtundercontrolandthemostcorruptexpenditureshavebeeneliminated,butUkraineneeds
toreformthebudgetprocesstomakeitfullytransparent.ThisrequirestechnicalassistancefromaWesterncountrywithawell-
functioningbudgetsystemtorenderpublicexpendituresefficient.

6.Ukrainecarriedoutsomederegulationin2015,butfartoolittle.Manyinspectionagenciespersistandshouldbeclosed.
UkrainecouldrisesharplyontheWorldBank'sEaseofDoingBusinessIndex,ifitcarriedoutpossiblederegulation.

7.FormerMinisterofEducationDmytroTabachnikcausedchaosintheschoolsystem2010-13.Ukraineneedstoestablish
elementaryorderintheschoolorganizationandcurriculum.Polandoffersagoodexamplethatcouldbecopied.Thiswouldnot
costmuch,butitisamatterofgettingtheproperadministrationintoplace.

Manyotherissuesarealsoimportant,notablyimprovementofthehealthcaresystem,butsuchreformrequiresmoretime.Thetop
sixprioritiesaboveareallfocusedonreducingcorruption.Schoolreformiscomparativelyeasyandcanbedonewithinayear.

Ukrainehasreformedmuchin2015,butthegovernmentneedstokeepupthemomentumtoattainsoundeconomicgrowth.

AndersslundisaseniorfellowattheAtlanticCouncilandauthorof"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt."
----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at1:55PM
Subject:Fwd:thanks![ED:AnVerySubstantiveSteveBInterviewonVOA]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,herpirch@aol.com

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:TetianaKharchenko<tkharchenko@voanews.com>
To:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Sent:Tue,Jan19,20161:55pm
Subject:thanks!

HiStephen,

ThankyouagainforcomingtoourTVshow.HereisthelinkforthatinterviewwhichBohdanhasconductedwithyou.

http://ukrainian.voanews.com/content/stiven-blank-on-minsk/3148962.html

andfortheshow:

http://ukrainian.voanews.com/media/video/tv-programs-chastime/3147829.html?z=1684&zp=1

Best,

Tania.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at12:14PM
Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven[EastStratComTaskForce]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

From:EastStratComTaskForce[mailto:stratcom-east=eeas.europa.eu@mail150.suw14.mcdlv.net]OnBehalfOfEastStratComTask

Force

Sent:January19,201611:07AM

To:=?utf-8?Q??=

Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven

New#DisinfoReviewfromtheEEASEastStratComTaskForce Viewthisemailinyour
browser

DisinformationReview:IssueEleven
Dearcolleagues,

Thankyouverymuchforallyourreports.Wearealwayshappytoseenew
languageshere-thistimeItalian.Incaseyouknowaboutsomepeopleor
organisationswhocouldhelpuscovercountriesandlanguagesstillnotpresentin
ourReview,wewillbehappyifyouletusknow.

Asthisweekstrendwechosethedisinformation
targetedatGermany

Pro-KremlinmediausethenewsaboutsexualattacksduringNewYearsEveto
supportoneoftheirmostrepeatednarratives-showingthedecayoftheWestand
theproblemsfacedbyaEuropeanleader.

Alreadylastweek,wesawdisinformationaboutGermanpoliceandAngela
Merkelallegedlynotreactingtotheincident(http://eepurl.com/bMAv5P).This
week,youwillseestoriesabouttheseattacksbeingstagedbysecretservices,eg
theCIAortheirMuslimalliesandpayingtheactorswithheroinboughtfor
taxpayersmoney.OneofRussiasmainnewsprogrammes,"Vesticomparedthe
incidenttotheinfamousNightofLongKnives,orKristallnacht
(http://bit.ly/1QfuCZE).Aeronet.ctreportedthatifyouinsultrefugeesonGerman
FacebookorTwitter,youmightgotojail,whichisalongpreparedplantoban
freedomofspeechandtheNewYearsEveincidentsareonlyanexcuseforthat
(http://bit.ly/1OYZQDk).

Duringtheweekend,thepro-Kremlinmediacamewithastoryclaimingthata
RussiangirlhadbeenrapedinBerlinbymigrants.Inthetable,youwillseemany
linkstothisstoryinallthemostpopularRussianmedia.AlthoughBerlinpolice
deniedthisinformation(http://bit.ly/1Q8DMW4),manyofthestoriesremained
unchanged.

FurtherdisinformationaboutGermanauthoritieswasreportedbyCzechpro-
Kremlinoutlets.Inthetable,youwillseeacoupleofthemclaimingthatthe
GermangovernmentbuysCzechprostitutestosatisfytherefugees.These
prostitutesthenspreadtherefugeessexualdiseasesamongtheCzech
population,whichmight,itisclaimed,bearevengefortheCzechgovernment's
unwillingnesstoacceptrefugeesbytheGermangovernmentandAngelaMerkel.

Lastweek,weshowedhowpro-Kremlinmediainventstorieswrittenbywell-
knownWesternmediatomaketheirreportingmorecredible.Allofthestories
werefaked.Thisweek,wesawasimilarpattern-manystoriesinpro-Kremlin
outletsclaimedthatWesternmediapresageacatastropheforthewholeWest
afteranotheringeniousmovebyVladimirPutin,intendedtocounterthe
sanctionsagainsthiscountry.Infact,theseWesternmediaamountedtoone
articleonabloggingsite.Thestop-fakingsiteNoodleremoverreportsonthis
particularcasemorethoroughly(http://bit.ly/1niqi0M).

Here,weseeadifferentpattern-insteadofmakingproofsup,pro-Kremlinsites
pickanexistingelement,andpervertitintosomethingitisnot.Theverysame
happenedtoaphotographthatallegedlydepictedUkrainiannazis.Infact,there
wereRussianultranationalistsportrayedinthepicture(http://bit.ly/1StZoiM).

ThefalsenarrativeaboutnazisgoverningUkraineisrepeatedoneveryoccasion.
Thus,eventheUkrainianschoolreformsaimisinfactjustaplanhowtoturn
Ukrainianchildrentonazis.Thispieceofinvestigationwasreported
bynovorus.info:http://bit.ly/1V54xvH,andthanspreadbyCzechpro-Kremlin
outlets.

Thisweek,pro-KremlinoutletsalsoclaimthattheAmericansecretservice
managednotonlytostagetheCologneattacks(seeabove),butalsotohelpthe
BulgarianPrimeMinistertogetdrugsinLibyaandweaponstoISIS
(http://bit.ly/1TAAonG).In2009,theCIAalsokilledMichaelJackson
(http://bit.ly/1RONPDe).

Manythankstoallourcontributorsagain,andwearealwayslookingfornewones.

DOWNLOADDISINFORMATIONREVIEWISSUEELEVEN

Forcontributions,pleasee-mailjakub.kalensky@eeas.europa.eu

Whenyouadvertisethisproduct,pleaseusethislinkforautomatedsubscriptions.

Thankyouverymuchonceagain,andwearelookingforwardtoyournewreports,

EastStratCom
FollowusonTwitter@EUvsDisinfo

TheDisinformationReviewisacompilationofreportsreceivedfrommembersofthe
mythbustingnetwork.Themythbustingnetworkcomprisesofover450experts,
journalists,officials,NGOsandThinkTanksinover30countries.Pleasenotethat
opinionsandjudgementsexpressedheredonotrepresentofficialEUpositions.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at8:47AM
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:January19,2016
To:Wolodymyr<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIOvernightBrief
January19,2016

TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,ObamaAdministration,Events

Announcements TheMust-Reads
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI NYT:US-Iranprisonerswappitscompassionagainstcosts
OvernightBrief.
BretStephens:NormalizingIran
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking
SyriahurdleloomsafterUS-Irandeals
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
CarterseeksmorehelpagainstISISinParistrip
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofor Formerwarplanners:ObamatoocautiousinbombingISIS
theYemenconflict.
DavidIgnatius:DefeatingISISwilltakedecades

WSJeditorial:AterrorstateinLibya

Gilinsky,Sokolski:TheotherdangersfromtheN.Korean
nuketest

WSJ+WaPoeditorialsandCohenonChineserepression

AsearchforanswersinKara-Murzasmysteriousillness

MiddleEast/NorthAfrica

Iran

Withinternationalsanctionslifted,theIraniangovernmentcalledonitsoilindustryMondaytoopenthetapsonproduction,amovethatcould
addtoaglobalglutofcrudethathassentpricesintoatailspin.NewYorkTimes

LiterallyhoursaftertheinkhaddriedontheaccordliftinginternationaleconomicsanctionsonIran,big-namecompaniesacrossEuropeandAsia
weresigningdeals,majorworldleaderswerebookingtrademissionstoTehran,idledoilfieldswerebeingorderedbackonline,andIran'sfinancial
authoritieshadprocessedapplicationsforsome1,000lettersofcreditfrombusinesseshopingtocutdealsinthenearfuture.WashingtonTimes

TheglowofgoodwillthatfollowedasurpriseprisonerswapandtheliftingofinternationalsanctionsonIran'snuclearprogramovertheweekend
isalreadybeingtemperedbythesomberrealizationthattheIslamicRepublicisnotlikelytochangecoursesignificantlyonotherpressing
conflictswiththeWest.LosAngelesTimes

ThedramaticreleaseoffiveAmericansimprisonedinIranovertheweekendhighlightedanunprecedentedlevelofdiplomaticcooperation
betweentwocountriesthathavelongbeenatodds,raisingthetantalizingpossibilityofaneweraofU.S.-Irandtente.ForeignPolicy

TwoIranianpoetswhofacelashingsandprisonsentenceshavefledIran,oneofthewriterssaidMonday,arareescapeforlocalartistsand
activistsensnaredinanongoingcrackdownonexpressioninthecountry.AssociatedPress

BretStephenswrites:IranwillbecomeanormalcountryonlywhenitceasestobeanIslamicRepublic.Inthemeantime,theonlyquestionis
howfarwearepreparedtoabaseourselvesinourquesttonormalizeit.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SimonChinandValerieLincywrite:Inthefirstroundofsanctionsrelief,theEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,andUnitedNationsliftedthebulkof
itsnuclear-relatedsanctionsagainstIran,includingmostoftherestrictionsthathadbeenimposedagainstIransfinancial,transport,andenergy
sectors.(U.S.partieswillstillbeprohibitedfromdoingbusinesswithIranianentitiesbecauseoftheembargo.)IranWatch

FredFleitzwrites:HowdidIranreachthenucleardealsImplementationDay?BecausetheObamaadministrationriggedthegamebysettingthe
barsolowthatIraniancompliancewasassuredThatswhatledtoadisastrousagreementthatwillmaydoenormousdamagetointernational
securityfordecadestocome.FoxNews

Syria

TheprisonerexchangebetweentheU.S.andIran,coincidingwiththecompletionofthenucleardeal,markedmilestonesinPresidentBarack
Obamaspolicyofengagement,butonesthatwillbedifficulttorepeatasheturnstothenextchallenge:resolvingtheconflictinSyria.Wall
StreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Barelyamonthaftertheworldsmostpowerfulcountriesagreedtoanambitiousroadmaptoendthefive-year-oldwarinSyria,thereisstillno
agreementonwho,ifanyone,willshowupatthepeacetalksthataresupposedtobegininGenevanextMonday.NewYorkTimes

IntheMiddleEast,whereRussiahasengagedinitsownoperationsagainstIslamicStateinSyria,RussiaandtheU.S.,whichisleadingacoalition
againsttheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria,orISIS,alsoknownasISIL,aremakingeveryeffortnottocrosspathsintheskies,Gorencsaid.DOD
Buzz

TheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightsgroupsaidscoresofSyriangovernmentforceshavebeenkilledinthreedaysoffightingwithIslamic
Stateintheeastofthecountry,wherethejihadistgrouphasattackedgovernment-heldareas.-Reuters

Syrianpeacetalksduenextweekarelookingincreasinglymootasastringofrecentbattlefieldvictoriesbygovernmenttroopshavebolstered
PresidentBasharAssad'shandandplungedtherebelsintodisarray.AssociatedPress

AthirdroundofaidwasdeliveredtobesiegedSyriantownsonMonday,althougharmedgroupspostponedonehumanitarianteam'saccess
sayingtheyneededmoretimetomakesecurityarrangements,theUnitedNationssaidinajointstatement.-Reuters

DaveedGartenstein-RossandNathanielBarrwrite:AlmosteveryaspectoftheObamaadministrationspolicytowardSyriahasbeenscrutinized,
lambastedorpraisedinrecentmonths,butoneofthemostsignificantfacets,theCIAscovertaidprogramtoSyrianrebels,haslargelyslipped
belowtheradar.Itistimethatwestartpayingattention,sincethisinitiativeisbenefitingtheveryjihadistgroupstheU.S.hasbeenfightingforthe
past15years.TheDailyBeast

Iraq

ThreeAmericanswhohavebeenmissinginIraqsinceFridaywereprobablykidnappedfromaBaghdadapartment,accordingtosecurityofficials
andlocalnewsreports.TheapartmentmayhavebeenthehomeofanIraqicolleaguewhoisalsobelievedtohavebeenabducted,theofficialsand
reportssaid.NewYorkTimes

AwaveofattacksagainstciviliansbytheIslamicStateandrivalShiitemilitiasinavolatileIraqiprovincehasraisedfearsaboutthepotentialfor
deadlysectarianviolence,eveninareaswheretheextremistmilitantswereofficiallydeclarederadicated.WashingtonPost

Atleast18,802civilianswerekilledandanother36,245werewoundedinIraqbetweenthestartof2014andOct.31oflastyearasIraqiforces
battledtheIslamicStategroup,accordingtoaU.N.reportreleasedTuesday.AssociatedPress

BaghdadandWashingtonhavetoutedRamadiasthefirstmajorsuccessforIraq'sU.S.-backedarmysinceitcollapsedinthefaceofIslamicState's
lightningadvanceacrossthecountry'snorthandwestinmid-2014.Butthescorched-earthbattlefieldtacticsusedbybothsidesmeantheprizeis
ashatteredruin.-Reuters

[C]learingthecityfrommilitantsandexplosivescouldtakeweeks.Andthediscoveryofmoreciviliansthanexpectedtrappedamongtheruins,
afterwhatthesurvivorssaywasadeliberateeffortbyfighterstousethemasshields,suggestsfuturebattlesagainstIslamicStatecouldbemore
complicated.-Reuters

KimberlyDozierreports:ThreeAmericancontractorswentmissinginBaghdadlateThursday,afterleavingtheheavilyfortifiedIraqimilitarybase
withouttheirsecuritydetail,armedonlywithpistols,accordingtoacontractorwithfirsthandknowledgeoftheincident.TheDailyBeast

Turkey

ATurkishsecurityforcecampaignagainstKurdishmilitantsinthesoutheasthasbeenlargelycompleted,PrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluwas
reportedassayingonTuesday,asheoutlinedplanstomaintaintightercontrolinpartsoftheregion.-Reuters

LawyersforTurkishPresidentTayyipErdoganfiledalawsuitagainstthemainoppositionleaderonMondayforimplyingthatErdoganwasa
dictator,presidentialsourcesandtheoppositionpartysaid.-Reuters

ReturntoTop

Asia
CentralAsia

TheUzbekgovernment,lobbiedbyrightsgroupsandpressuredquietlybytheUnitedStatestofreeahigh-profilepoliticalprisoner,hasfinally
revealedasecret:Hediedfiveyearsago.NewYorkTimes

LackofagreementonwhowouldcontrolaseparateIndianSpecialForcesCommand(SFC)hasstymiedcreationoftheunitdespitethemilitary's
urgentdesireforone.MilitaryTimes

China

Chinasgrowthslowedfurtherlastyear,addingtothetroublingeconomicpicturethatisunsettlinginvestorsaroundtheworld.NewYorkTimes

WhenChinasgovernmentreportsTuesdayontheeconomysperformancelastyear,onecentralquestionwillhavealreadybeenanswered:
Growthslowedtoitsmostanemicpaceinaquartercentury.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Traditionally,collegesconducton-campusinterviewsorenlistalumnitohelp.ButwiththesurgeinapplicationsfromChina,collegesareunableto
keepupwiththevolumeofinterviewrequests.Tosiftthroughthefloodofapplicants,moreAmericaninstitutionshavesoughtthird-party
interviewswithprospectivestudents.NewYorkTimes

WheneverChinaseconomyshowssignsoffaltering,Beijingtypicallymovestostimulategrowthbyboostingspendingoninfrastructureand
thatnormallygivesthingsakickstart.Thistimearound,however,policymakershadresortedtothesamestrategyonlytofindthemselvesfacing
unusualheadwinds,asevidencedbyTuesdaysnewsthatChinaposteditsslowestgrowthinaquartercenturyin2015.WSJsChinaRealTime

ChinasgovernmenthaslaunchedanonlinedatabaseofTibetanlivingBuddhasaspartofwhatcriticsviewasabroaderstruggletocontrolthe
legacyoftheexiledDalaiLama.FinancialTimes

Chineseauthoritieswillprosecutetwoformerseniorofficials,includingaone-timevicemayorofShanghai,forcorruption,afterprobesfoundthey
abusedtheirpowerandtookbribes,therulingCommunistParty'santi-graftwatchdogsaidonTuesday.-Reuters

HongKong

GuiMinhai,theowneroftheHongKongpublisherMightyCurrentwhohasbeenmissingsinceOctober,appearedonChinesestatetelevisionlast
night(Jan.17)andmadeatearfulconfessionhehadkilleda20-year-oldcollegestudentwhiledrunkdrivinginNingbo,acityinsoutheastern
Zhejiangprovince,inDecemberof2003.Guisfriendsandfamilyhavetheirdoubts,andsayhisconfessionlooksscriptedandtheystillbelievehe
wasabducted.-Quartz

HongKongpolicehaveconfirmedthatanotherofagroupoffivemissingbooksellerswhosoldworkscriticalofBeijingisinmainlandChina,justa
dayafterhiscolleaguewasparadedonChinesestateTVconfessingtoa12-year-olddrink-drivingoffenceFinancialTimes

ASwedishbooksellerwhosemysteriousdisappearancesparkedfearshemayhavebeenabductedbyChineseagentssaidhehadvoluntarily
turnedhimselfintotheauthoritiesoverafataldrink-drivingoffensemorethanadecadeago.-Reuters

OneofHongKong'sstaunchestpro-Beijinglawmakerssaidabookseller'stearfulconfessiononstatetelevisiontoahit-and-runaccidentmore
thanadecadeagoinChinaisunlikelytoappeasepublicconcernsthathemayhavebeenabducted.-Reuters

Editorial:Thechargeagainstthelawyers,subvertingstatepower,isabsurd.Thelawyersweresimplyadvisingclientshowtodefendthemselves
underChinaslawstheirintentionswerepragmaticandrelativelymodest.Butitisnowcleartheytouchedaverysensitivenerve,andChinas
rulersreactedharshly.Thegrayzoneisbeingturnedintoatwilightzoneoffear,amessagetoanyonethattheycanbetakenawayinthemiddleof
thenight.WashingtonPost

Editorial:Whenreportsofthemissingbooksellerssurfaced,somespeculatedthatrogueChineseagentscouldhavemountedasnatch-and-grab
campaignwithoutapprovalfromhigher-upsinBeijing.Mr.Guistelevisedconfessionsuggestsofficialknowledgeandcomplicity.Thecases
representanescalationofChinasassaultsonjournalism,theautonomyofHongKongandtherightsofoverseasChinesewhoarecitizensof
othersovereignnations.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

JeromeCohenwrites:IfthecurrentChinesepresidentweretohonorhisfatherspolicy,Chinasprospectsfortransitioningfromdictatorshipto
democracywouldbebrighter.SotoowouldbethefutureofChinaspubliclawyers.Ihopethattheywillcontinuethestruggle,evenwithonearm
tiedbehindthem.Itwouldbetragic,forbothlawyersandChinesesociety,iftheyweretobecomemeretechnicalpractitioners.WallStreet
Journal(subscriptionrequired)

Taiwan

NodogmaismoreimportanttoBeijingthanOneChina,theconceptthatTaiwanisapartofasingleChinesenationjusttemporarilyestranged.
Americaandmuchoftherestoftheworldacquiescetothatposition,denyingtherealitythatTaiwanhassetitscourseasanindependentstate.
Lastweekendsvote,inwhichtheTaiwaneseelectorateoverwhelmingendorsedapartythatrejectsBeijingsOneChinaformula,confirmedthe
directioninthemostemphaticwaytodate.ThatnotonlyputsChinainabind,buttheU.S.too.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

TheelectionofTsaiIng-wenaspresidentofTaiwanwasmetinChinaonMondaywithsparseandlargelycriticalcomment,suggestingbothalack
ofinteresttowardacandidatewhosepartysnativistleaningsmanyordinaryChinesedonotunderstandandcensorshipinthenewsmediaand
onlineforumsaboutanoutcomethattheCommunistPartyhadnotwishedtosee.NewYorkTimes

PatrickCroninandPhoebeBenichwrite:ThesewindsofchangeoriginatinginTaiwanarealsocertaintobuffetthenextU.S.president.Since
normalizingrelationswithChinaandthepassageoftheTaiwanRelationsActin1979,repeatedadministrationshavemaintainedahighdegreeof
ambiguityregardingsupportforTaiwan.AreenergizedTaiwaneseelectoratewilltestthelongevityofAmericascurrentstrategicambiguityabout
theactualextentofitscommitmenttoTaiwanForeignPolicy

NorthKorea

[E]venasnewsanctionsloom,NorthKoreasbiggesttesttodatehasthrownintostarkreliefthefailureofexistingonestohaltitsnuclear
progressandwithChinastillunwillingtocastitstreatyallyintoeconomicruin,analystsseelittlehopethatthenextroundofmeasureswill
achievethatgoal.FinancialTimes

NorthKoreanleaderKimJongUn'srecentnuclearweapontestwasdesignedtoboosthisdomesticlegitimacyaheadofararerulingparty
conferenceinMaythatcouldformalizemarket-basedeconomicexperimentsintheisolatedcountry,analystssay.-Reuters

VictorGilinskyandHenrySokolskiwrite:ThefirstthingtosayaboutNorthKoreasJan.6nucleartestisthat,despitethepronouncementsof
instantexperts,weknowalmostnothingaboutitstechnicalcharacteristics.Eventherelationoftheseismicsignaltotheactualsizeofthe
explosionisuncertain.Buttherearesomehintsaboutthetestssignificanceforproliferationthatthepress,initseagernesstodismissNorth
Koreasclaimthatitdetonatedahydrogenweapon,seemstohavemissed.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SoutheastAsia

Theoutcomeofthesecongressesisusuallysettledmonthsinadvance,butaprotractedspatbetweenfactionsloyaltoMr.DungandMr.Trong
hasresultedinlast-minutemaneuvering.WhoevercomesoutontopcoulddeterminethefutureofVietnamscarefullycalibratedstrategicbalance
betweenChina,itsideologicalallyandmaintradingpartner,andtheUnitedStates,whichthepartyeliteincreasinglyconsidersanimportant
counterweightagainstgrowingChineseinfluenceintheregion.NewYorkTimes

ElectionbattlesinthePhilippinesarentjustfoughtoverwhogetsthemostvotes,butalsowhogetstoparticipate,withoneoftheleading
candidatesforthisyearspresidentialrace,GracePoe,waitingfortheSupremeCourttodecidewhethersheiseligibletoleadthecountry.Wall
StreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

MyanmararmychiefMinAungHlaingnominatedmilitaryofficers,whoholdaquarterofseatsinparliament,totheirposts,statemediasaidon
Tuesday,anotherstepbythearmyinwhathassofarsurprisedmanyasaremarkablypeacefultransition.-Reuters

ChinaaccusedthePhilippinesonTuesdayofdeliberatelytryingtoscarepeoplebysayingChinahadwarnedasmallcivilianplanecarrying
PhilippineofficialsitwastrespassingastheyinspectedanislandinthedisputedSouthChinaSea.-Reuters

Australia

PresidentBarackObamaiswelcominghisfirstforeignleaderofthenewyear,AustralianPrimeMinisterMalcolmTurnbull,fortalksthatwillcover
theIslamicStatemilitantgroupanda12-nationPacificRimtradeagreementthatincludestheircountries.AssociatedPress

ReturntoTop

Security

Cybersecurity

Cyberattackswagedagainstthenation'scriticalmanufacturingsectornearlydoubledinfiscalyear2015,governmentexpertssaidinanewreport.
WashingtonTimes

ReturntoTop

Russia/Europe
Ukraine

WhenafriendinKyivcalledIsraeli-AmericanfilmmakerEvgenyAfineevskyinNovember2013andconvincedhimtodropeverythingandtakehis
camerastoUkrainebecause"somethingwashappening"there,hehadnoideawhathewasgettinghimselfinto,letalonethatitwouldleadtoan
Oscarnomination.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheEuropeanUnionpressedUkraineauthoritiesonMondaytoovercomepoliticalfeudingandimplementpromisedreformsasitlookstoshore
upthecountry'sdemocraticandeconomiccredentials.-Reuters

AndersAslundwrites:Ukrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.
Thecountryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.Nevertheless,
thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbein2016.AtlanticCouncil

Russia

Kara-MurzaalsobelieveshispoisoningmayhavebeenanactofrevengeforhislobbyingforU.S.sanctionsagainstRussianofficialsunderthe
MagnitskyAct,namedforSergeiMagnitsky,awhistleblowingRussianlawyerwhodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afteraccusingofficialsoflarge-
scalefraud.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheRussianStateDumaCommitteeonConstitutionalLegislationandState-Buildinghasdeclinedtoendorseacontroversialdraftbillthatwould
introducefinesandarrestsforpeoplewhopubliclyexpresstheirhomosexuality.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Russiasrublecurrency,batteredbyfallingglobaloilprices,hasdroppedtoitslowestvalueoncurrencyexchangemarketsinmorethanayear.
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

France

ThegroupsformationunderscoreshowtheU.S.andFrenchhaveexpandedtheirrelationshipastheU.S.-ledcoalitionagainsttheIslamicState
preparesforanexpansionofthewar.OnTuesday,Carterwillembarkonamulti-daytriptoEuropethatincludesmeetingsinPariswithdefense
ministersfromthecountriesprovidingsomeofthemostsignificantcontributionstothemilitarycampaign:France,Australia,Germany,Italy,the
NetherlandsandBritainWashingtonPostsCheckpoint

MorethanayearaftertheterrorattacksonCharlieHebdoandaPariskoshersupermarket,thevictimsrelativesarestilldemandinganswerson
whetherorhowFrancesgovernmentandsecurityforcesfailed.-Politico

Germany

JosefJoffewrites:Youcanthaveopenbordersandamunificentwelfarestate.Somethinghastogive.SinceevenMightyMerkelcannotoverturn
ancientdispensations,shewillinevitablyslipintoNo,wecantandcloseborders,astheSwedesandDaneshavedone.High-mindedness
stopsattheballotbox.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

JohnVinocurwrites:Thechancellornowfacesasocietythatisgaggingontherealizationthatotherone-timepillarsofnationalprobityhave
crackedfortheworldtoseeDeutscheBankwithits$2.5billionfinebyU.S.regulatorslastyearforraterigging,andVolkswagen,facingmassive
lawsuitsafteracknowledgingitfakeditscarsemission-controlcapabilities.Byitsownstandards,Germanyisreeling.AngelaMerkelnolonger
hasthecountryfullyinhergrasp.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Europe

TheEuropeanUnionandtheU.S.areracingtomeetadeadlineonanewcommercialdata-sharingaccordtoreplaceonestruckdownbytheEU
lastyearbecauseofconcernsoverAmericansurveillancepractices.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

AspresidentoftheEuropeanCouncilthegrouprepresentingtheEuropeanUnionsoften-clashing28leadersDonaldTuskisforever
promotingabalancebetweennationalsovereigntyononehandandcommonvaluesandgoalsontheother.OnMonday,hischallengewas
especiallypersonal.NewYorkTimes

[T]hedozensofmembersoftheBritishParliamentwhospentanextraordinarythreehoursMondaydebatingaboutthefront-runnerforthe
RepublicannominationforU.S.presidentdidnotbanDonaldTrump.WashingtonPost

NATO

PolandwantsNATOtoagreetodeploy'substantial'numbersofforcesandequipmentincentralandeasternEuropetoensuretheregion'ssecurity
inthefaceofamoreaggressiveRussia,PresidentAndrzejDudasaidonMonday.-Reuters

ReturntoTop

Americas
LatinAmerica

Justweeksbeforelawmakerswillconsiderherfate,BrazilianPresidentDilmaRousseffisdesperatelytryingtodemonstratethatsheisstillin
chargeofSouthAmerica'smostpopulousnation.WashingtonTimes

PresidentDilmaRousseff'sopponentswithinhermaincoalitionpartner,thefractiousBrazilianDemocraticMovementParty(PMDB),arelosing
hopethattheycanimpeachtheleftistleaderandreplaceherwiththeirman,VicePresidentMichelTemer.-Reuters

AnagreementtobuildoiltankersinIranforVenezuelahasbeenleftinlimboyearsafteritwasannouncedasWesternsanctionsplus
disagreementsoverpaymentsanddeliverytermstooktheirtoll,sourcesfamiliarwiththemattersay.-Reuters

TobyDershowitzandJosephHumirewrite:Thepost-dealinfluxofinternationalinvestmenttoIranwillsurelychallengeMacriseffortstocurb
Tehransinfluenceathome.Sofar,hehasshownheisuptothistask.ItisimperativethattheU.S.andotherfriendlygovernmentshelpthenew
Argentinepresidentasheseekstorighthiscountrysjudicialintegrity,aneffortforwhichAlbertoNismangavehislifetoprotect.TheHill

ReturntoTop

TheFPIOvernightBriefisadailyproductoftheForeignPolicyInitiative,whichseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreignpolicycommittedto
robustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmericasglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Tosubmitcommentsorsuggestions,emailovernight@foreignpolicyi.org.

TheForeignPolicyInitiative Telephone:(202)296-3322
11DupontCircle,NWSuite325 E-mail:info@foreignpolicyi.org
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Tounsubscribe,clickhere DonatetoFPI

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/19/201601:43:33PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere![MUST
Subject: SEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EU
...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,January19,20161:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere!
[MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUST
LISTEN]..........[WD]EU...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at4:29PM
Subject:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there![MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA
[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EUDEZINFORMREVIEW11[MUSTNOTE].....ANDABELATEDFPOvernightBrieffor1-
19-16[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at11:48AM
Subject:WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there!(seelengthyVIDEO)
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there!(seelengthyVIDEO)

URL:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/tv/topics/71484.html?print=1

Aspunishmenttheauthoritieshavebeendumpingallthesnowfromsurroundingdistrictsnexttothe
campfurtherisolatingtheprotesters(shownonvideo).

And:InRussiaSOCIALPROTESTShavebegunanew,http://echo.msk.ru/news/1696504-echo.html

InspiredbythesuccessfulprotestactionofPENSIONERSinKrasnodarandSochi,studentsin
NOVGORODarethreateningamajorstrikeovertheremovalordownsizingoftheirtransportation
benefits.

And:ForthedeclarationoftheNovgorodstudents,signedby1052supporters,see:Studencheskii
proezdnoivernut!VELIKIINOVGOROD,http://www.change.org/

And:StudentsinGreatNovgorodhavethreatenedtogooutontothestreets,
http://tvrain.ru/news/proezd-401936/

And:Russianoligarchs[Abramovich,Usmanov,Potaninandothers]lose$11bninjusttendaysduring
oilpricecrash,telegraph.co.uk,1/18

And:InU.S.money-launderingcase,shadesofRussianCORRUPTION,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27494612.html

And:OnconditionsintheLUHANSKbasements(controlledbytheseparatists)whereUkrainian
prisonersofwarhavebeentormentedanddied:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71465.html?print=1

And:The[Russian]CommissionontheDefenseofStateSecretshasdeclinedtomakepublicthe
archivesoftheKGB,http://grani.ru/Politics/FSB/m.247829.html

Thearchivesofthesecretpolicefor1917-1991willbepreservedinsecret.Thesedocumentsconcerning
theworkofthechekistyremainactual.

And:DutchMPssuspectRUSSIANTRACEinreferendumonAssociationwithUkraine,unian.info,
1/19

And:StateDumaSpeaker[NARYSHKIN]suggestsEUsanctionKievoverMinskviolations,
themsocowtimes.com,1/19

And:HillaryCLINTON:newRESETpossibleinU.S.-Russianrelationship,themoscowtimes.com,
1/19

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at10:00AM
Subject:Ukraine:USEKyivACKPNYTWoE[ANDERSASLUND"MUSTREAD':7KeyReformsforUAin2016]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

AtlanticCouncil

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/seven-key-reforms-for-ukraine-in-2016

JANUARY18,2016

SevenKeyReformsforUkrainein2016

BYANDERSSLUND

AfterOrthodoxChristmas,IspentafewdaysinKyiv.Itisquitestrikinghowthemoodhaschangedinapositivedirection.The
2016budgetandthemodifiedtaxcodewereadoptedonDecember24.Aftertwoweeksofwell-deservedrest,thereisasudden
realizationthatUkraineaccomplishedmanyimportanteconomicreformsin2015.Admittedly,manyUkrainiansrepeatthemantra
thatnoreformshavetakenplace,butthatisnottrue.Hundredsofsensiblereformlawshavebeenadoptedandtheirbreadthis
impressive.

Energyreformhasgreatlyreducedpricediscrepanciesandlimitedtheopportunitiesforcorruptarbitragebetweenstate-controlled
andfreeprices,whilesharplyreducingstatesubsidies.Thebudgethasbeenbroughtclosetobalance,andmajorinternational
financingtogetherwithdebtrestructuringwasaccomplished.Taxreformhasbeenadopted.Thebankingsystemisbeingcleaned
upasmorethanone-thirdofthebankshavebeenclosed.Afterasubstantialdevaluation,theexchangeratehasstabilizedand
internationalcurrencyreserveshaveincreasedconsiderably.Electronicprocurementhasbeenwidelyintroduced.Some
deregulationhasoccurred.

YetUkrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.The
countryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.
Nevertheless,thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbe
in2016.

1.Themainpriorityisreformoftheprosecutionandcourts.Ukraineadoptedalawonprosecution,butProsecutorGeneralViktor
Shokinmanagedtotakecontrolofthereformprocess,minimizingthechange.Shokinhastogoandthereformoftheprosecution
needstostartanewundernewleadership.Similarly,thecountry's10,000judgesneedtobelustratedandnewjudgesappointedin
areformedcourtsystem.
2.Muchwasaccomplishedinenergyreformin2015,andin2016itshouldbecompleted.Gasandelectricitypricesshouldbe
unifiedatamarketlevelandsetunderthecontrolofanindependentregulatorfromApril1andagasandelectricitymarketshould
finallybeallowedtodevelop.Taxationofindependentoilandgasproducersmustbemadereasonable,andtheirregulationshould
besimplified.Socialsubsidiesaregiventothepoorestthirdofthepopulation,butnofurthersubsidiesshouldbegiventoenergy
companies.

3.Ukraine's1,833state-ownedcompaniesareadenofcorruption.Thevastmajority,1,600,areoflittlevaluejustextracting
subsidiesfromthestate.Theyshouldbesoldoffataregionallevelandthepaymentsgiventotheregionalgovernmentstomotivate
themtoafasterselloff.Thetop100stateenterprises,mainlyinenergyandtransportation,haverealvalueandtheirprivatization
shouldbeopentoforeignbidderswheneverpossible.Thesesalesmustbetransparentandcompetitiveaimingbothathighprices
andsoundrestructuring.About120armamentcompaniesbelongtoUkroboronpromandneedtobeconsideredaseparate
nationalsecuritymatter.Forsuchreasons,Russianentitiesneedtobeblockedfromparticipationinprivatizationandforeignentities
shouldhavetransparentultimatebeneficiaries.

4.Ukrainerequiresprofoundcivilservicereform,whichhasbeenlegislatedandwillcomeintoforceinthespring.Itisvitalthatitis
properlyimplemented.Salariesofcivilservantsmustberaisedsothattheycanliveontheirsalaries.Acleardivisionneedstobe
madebetweenpoliticalandcivilserviceappointments.Entryintothecivilserviceshouldtakeplacethroughcompetitiveexams.
Promotionsshouldbebasedonmerit,notseniority.Standardrulesagainstconflictsofinterestshouldbeintroduced.TheEuropean
UnionhasofferedsubstantialfinancialandtechnicalsupportandthisissomethingthatEUcountriesdowell.

Thevastadministrationofthecabinetofministersof700peoplethattraditionallyhasduplicatedandhamperedtheworkofthe
ministriesshouldbedismantledandreplacedwithalimitedapparatusforcoordination.Thesystemofrequiringtwentytothirty
signaturesoneachmajordecisionmustend,andministriesshouldobtainrealresponsibility.

5.Thebudgetdeficithasbeenbroughtundercontrolandthemostcorruptexpenditureshavebeeneliminated,butUkraineneeds
toreformthebudgetprocesstomakeitfullytransparent.ThisrequirestechnicalassistancefromaWesterncountrywithawell-
functioningbudgetsystemtorenderpublicexpendituresefficient.

6.Ukrainecarriedoutsomederegulationin2015,butfartoolittle.Manyinspectionagenciespersistandshouldbeclosed.
UkrainecouldrisesharplyontheWorldBank'sEaseofDoingBusinessIndex,ifitcarriedoutpossiblederegulation.

7.FormerMinisterofEducationDmytroTabachnikcausedchaosintheschoolsystem2010-13.Ukraineneedstoestablish
elementaryorderintheschoolorganizationandcurriculum.Polandoffersagoodexamplethatcouldbecopied.Thiswouldnot
costmuch,butitisamatterofgettingtheproperadministrationintoplace.

Manyotherissuesarealsoimportant,notablyimprovementofthehealthcaresystem,butsuchreformrequiresmoretime.Thetop
sixprioritiesaboveareallfocusedonreducingcorruption.Schoolreformiscomparativelyeasyandcanbedonewithinayear.

Ukrainehasreformedmuchin2015,butthegovernmentneedstokeepupthemomentumtoattainsoundeconomicgrowth.

AndersslundisaseniorfellowattheAtlanticCouncilandauthorof"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt."
----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at1:55PM
Subject:Fwd:thanks![ED:AnVerySubstantiveSteveBInterviewonVOA]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,herpirch@aol.com

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:TetianaKharchenko<tkharchenko@voanews.com>
To:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Sent:Tue,Jan19,20161:55pm
Subject:thanks!

HiStephen,

ThankyouagainforcomingtoourTVshow.HereisthelinkforthatinterviewwhichBohdanhasconductedwithyou.

http://ukrainian.voanews.com/content/stiven-blank-on-minsk/3148962.html

andfortheshow:

http://ukrainian.voanews.com/media/video/tv-programs-chastime/3147829.html?z=1684&zp=1

Best,

Tania.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at12:14PM
Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven[EastStratComTaskForce]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

From:EastStratComTaskForce[mailto:stratcom-east=eeas.europa.eu@mail150.suw14.mcdlv.net]OnBehalfOfEastStratComTask

Force

Sent:January19,201611:07AM

To:=?utf-8?Q??=

Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven

New#DisinfoReviewfromtheEEASEastStratComTaskForce Viewthisemailinyour
browser

DisinformationReview:IssueEleven
Dearcolleagues,

Thankyouverymuchforallyourreports.Wearealwayshappytoseenew
languageshere-thistimeItalian.Incaseyouknowaboutsomepeopleor
organisationswhocouldhelpuscovercountriesandlanguagesstillnotpresentin
ourReview,wewillbehappyifyouletusknow.

Asthisweekstrendwechosethedisinformation
targetedatGermany

Pro-KremlinmediausethenewsaboutsexualattacksduringNewYearsEveto
supportoneoftheirmostrepeatednarratives-showingthedecayoftheWestand
theproblemsfacedbyaEuropeanleader.

Alreadylastweek,wesawdisinformationaboutGermanpoliceandAngela
Merkelallegedlynotreactingtotheincident(http://eepurl.com/bMAv5P).This
week,youwillseestoriesabouttheseattacksbeingstagedbysecretservices,eg
theCIAortheirMuslimalliesandpayingtheactorswithheroinboughtfor
taxpayersmoney.OneofRussiasmainnewsprogrammes,"Vesticomparedthe
incidenttotheinfamousNightofLongKnives,orKristallnacht
(http://bit.ly/1QfuCZE).Aeronet.ctreportedthatifyouinsultrefugeesonGerman
FacebookorTwitter,youmightgotojail,whichisalongpreparedplantoban
freedomofspeechandtheNewYearsEveincidentsareonlyanexcuseforthat
(http://bit.ly/1OYZQDk).

Duringtheweekend,thepro-Kremlinmediacamewithastoryclaimingthata
RussiangirlhadbeenrapedinBerlinbymigrants.Inthetable,youwillseemany
linkstothisstoryinallthemostpopularRussianmedia.AlthoughBerlinpolice
deniedthisinformation(http://bit.ly/1Q8DMW4),manyofthestoriesremained
unchanged.

FurtherdisinformationaboutGermanauthoritieswasreportedbyCzechpro-
Kremlinoutlets.Inthetable,youwillseeacoupleofthemclaimingthatthe
GermangovernmentbuysCzechprostitutestosatisfytherefugees.These
prostitutesthenspreadtherefugeessexualdiseasesamongtheCzech
population,whichmight,itisclaimed,bearevengefortheCzechgovernment's
unwillingnesstoacceptrefugeesbytheGermangovernmentandAngelaMerkel.

Lastweek,weshowedhowpro-Kremlinmediainventstorieswrittenbywell-
knownWesternmediatomaketheirreportingmorecredible.Allofthestories
werefaked.Thisweek,wesawasimilarpattern-manystoriesinpro-Kremlin
outletsclaimedthatWesternmediapresageacatastropheforthewholeWest
afteranotheringeniousmovebyVladimirPutin,intendedtocounterthe
sanctionsagainsthiscountry.Infact,theseWesternmediaamountedtoone
articleonabloggingsite.Thestop-fakingsiteNoodleremoverreportsonthis
particularcasemorethoroughly(http://bit.ly/1niqi0M).

Here,weseeadifferentpattern-insteadofmakingproofsup,pro-Kremlinsites
pickanexistingelement,andpervertitintosomethingitisnot.Theverysame
happenedtoaphotographthatallegedlydepictedUkrainiannazis.Infact,there
wereRussianultranationalistsportrayedinthepicture(http://bit.ly/1StZoiM).

ThefalsenarrativeaboutnazisgoverningUkraineisrepeatedoneveryoccasion.
Thus,eventheUkrainianschoolreformsaimisinfactjustaplanhowtoturn
Ukrainianchildrentonazis.Thispieceofinvestigationwasreported
bynovorus.info:http://bit.ly/1V54xvH,andthanspreadbyCzechpro-Kremlin
outlets.

Thisweek,pro-KremlinoutletsalsoclaimthattheAmericansecretservice
managednotonlytostagetheCologneattacks(seeabove),butalsotohelpthe
BulgarianPrimeMinistertogetdrugsinLibyaandweaponstoISIS
(http://bit.ly/1TAAonG).In2009,theCIAalsokilledMichaelJackson
(http://bit.ly/1RONPDe).

Manythankstoallourcontributorsagain,andwearealwayslookingfornewones.

DOWNLOADDISINFORMATIONREVIEWISSUEELEVEN

Forcontributions,pleasee-mailjakub.kalensky@eeas.europa.eu

Whenyouadvertisethisproduct,pleaseusethislinkforautomatedsubscriptions.

Thankyouverymuchonceagain,andwearelookingforwardtoyournewreports,

EastStratCom
FollowusonTwitter@EUvsDisinfo

TheDisinformationReviewisacompilationofreportsreceivedfrommembersofthe
mythbustingnetwork.Themythbustingnetworkcomprisesofover450experts,
journalists,officials,NGOsandThinkTanksinover30countries.Pleasenotethat
opinionsandjudgementsexpressedheredonotrepresentofficialEUpositions.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at8:47AM
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:January19,2016
To:Wolodymyr<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIOvernightBrief
January19,2016

TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,ObamaAdministration,Events

Announcements TheMust-Reads
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI NYT:US-Iranprisonerswappitscompassionagainstcosts
OvernightBrief.
BretStephens:NormalizingIran
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking
SyriahurdleloomsafterUS-Irandeals
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
CarterseeksmorehelpagainstISISinParistrip
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofor Formerwarplanners:ObamatoocautiousinbombingISIS
theYemenconflict.
DavidIgnatius:DefeatingISISwilltakedecades

WSJeditorial:AterrorstateinLibya

Gilinsky,Sokolski:TheotherdangersfromtheN.Korean
nuketest

WSJ+WaPoeditorialsandCohenonChineserepression

AsearchforanswersinKara-Murzasmysteriousillness

MiddleEast/NorthAfrica

Iran

Withinternationalsanctionslifted,theIraniangovernmentcalledonitsoilindustryMondaytoopenthetapsonproduction,amovethatcould
addtoaglobalglutofcrudethathassentpricesintoatailspin.NewYorkTimes

LiterallyhoursaftertheinkhaddriedontheaccordliftinginternationaleconomicsanctionsonIran,big-namecompaniesacrossEuropeandAsia
weresigningdeals,majorworldleaderswerebookingtrademissionstoTehran,idledoilfieldswerebeingorderedbackonline,andIran'sfinancial
authoritieshadprocessedapplicationsforsome1,000lettersofcreditfrombusinesseshopingtocutdealsinthenearfuture.WashingtonTimes

TheglowofgoodwillthatfollowedasurpriseprisonerswapandtheliftingofinternationalsanctionsonIran'snuclearprogramovertheweekend
isalreadybeingtemperedbythesomberrealizationthattheIslamicRepublicisnotlikelytochangecoursesignificantlyonotherpressing
conflictswiththeWest.LosAngelesTimes

ThedramaticreleaseoffiveAmericansimprisonedinIranovertheweekendhighlightedanunprecedentedlevelofdiplomaticcooperation
betweentwocountriesthathavelongbeenatodds,raisingthetantalizingpossibilityofaneweraofU.S.-Irandtente.ForeignPolicy

TwoIranianpoetswhofacelashingsandprisonsentenceshavefledIran,oneofthewriterssaidMonday,arareescapeforlocalartistsand
activistsensnaredinanongoingcrackdownonexpressioninthecountry.AssociatedPress

BretStephenswrites:IranwillbecomeanormalcountryonlywhenitceasestobeanIslamicRepublic.Inthemeantime,theonlyquestionis
howfarwearepreparedtoabaseourselvesinourquesttonormalizeit.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SimonChinandValerieLincywrite:Inthefirstroundofsanctionsrelief,theEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,andUnitedNationsliftedthebulkof
itsnuclear-relatedsanctionsagainstIran,includingmostoftherestrictionsthathadbeenimposedagainstIransfinancial,transport,andenergy
sectors.(U.S.partieswillstillbeprohibitedfromdoingbusinesswithIranianentitiesbecauseoftheembargo.)IranWatch

FredFleitzwrites:HowdidIranreachthenucleardealsImplementationDay?BecausetheObamaadministrationriggedthegamebysettingthe
barsolowthatIraniancompliancewasassuredThatswhatledtoadisastrousagreementthatwillmaydoenormousdamagetointernational
securityfordecadestocome.FoxNews

Syria

TheprisonerexchangebetweentheU.S.andIran,coincidingwiththecompletionofthenucleardeal,markedmilestonesinPresidentBarack
Obamaspolicyofengagement,butonesthatwillbedifficulttorepeatasheturnstothenextchallenge:resolvingtheconflictinSyria.Wall
StreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Barelyamonthaftertheworldsmostpowerfulcountriesagreedtoanambitiousroadmaptoendthefive-year-oldwarinSyria,thereisstillno
agreementonwho,ifanyone,willshowupatthepeacetalksthataresupposedtobegininGenevanextMonday.NewYorkTimes

IntheMiddleEast,whereRussiahasengagedinitsownoperationsagainstIslamicStateinSyria,RussiaandtheU.S.,whichisleadingacoalition
againsttheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria,orISIS,alsoknownasISIL,aremakingeveryeffortnottocrosspathsintheskies,Gorencsaid.DOD
Buzz

TheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightsgroupsaidscoresofSyriangovernmentforceshavebeenkilledinthreedaysoffightingwithIslamic
Stateintheeastofthecountry,wherethejihadistgrouphasattackedgovernment-heldareas.-Reuters

Syrianpeacetalksduenextweekarelookingincreasinglymootasastringofrecentbattlefieldvictoriesbygovernmenttroopshavebolstered
PresidentBasharAssad'shandandplungedtherebelsintodisarray.AssociatedPress

AthirdroundofaidwasdeliveredtobesiegedSyriantownsonMonday,althougharmedgroupspostponedonehumanitarianteam'saccess
sayingtheyneededmoretimetomakesecurityarrangements,theUnitedNationssaidinajointstatement.-Reuters

DaveedGartenstein-RossandNathanielBarrwrite:AlmosteveryaspectoftheObamaadministrationspolicytowardSyriahasbeenscrutinized,
lambastedorpraisedinrecentmonths,butoneofthemostsignificantfacets,theCIAscovertaidprogramtoSyrianrebels,haslargelyslipped
belowtheradar.Itistimethatwestartpayingattention,sincethisinitiativeisbenefitingtheveryjihadistgroupstheU.S.hasbeenfightingforthe
past15years.TheDailyBeast

Iraq

ThreeAmericanswhohavebeenmissinginIraqsinceFridaywereprobablykidnappedfromaBaghdadapartment,accordingtosecurityofficials
andlocalnewsreports.TheapartmentmayhavebeenthehomeofanIraqicolleaguewhoisalsobelievedtohavebeenabducted,theofficialsand
reportssaid.NewYorkTimes

AwaveofattacksagainstciviliansbytheIslamicStateandrivalShiitemilitiasinavolatileIraqiprovincehasraisedfearsaboutthepotentialfor
deadlysectarianviolence,eveninareaswheretheextremistmilitantswereofficiallydeclarederadicated.WashingtonPost

Atleast18,802civilianswerekilledandanother36,245werewoundedinIraqbetweenthestartof2014andOct.31oflastyearasIraqiforces
battledtheIslamicStategroup,accordingtoaU.N.reportreleasedTuesday.AssociatedPress

BaghdadandWashingtonhavetoutedRamadiasthefirstmajorsuccessforIraq'sU.S.-backedarmysinceitcollapsedinthefaceofIslamicState's
lightningadvanceacrossthecountry'snorthandwestinmid-2014.Butthescorched-earthbattlefieldtacticsusedbybothsidesmeantheprizeis
ashatteredruin.-Reuters

[C]learingthecityfrommilitantsandexplosivescouldtakeweeks.Andthediscoveryofmoreciviliansthanexpectedtrappedamongtheruins,
afterwhatthesurvivorssaywasadeliberateeffortbyfighterstousethemasshields,suggestsfuturebattlesagainstIslamicStatecouldbemore
complicated.-Reuters

KimberlyDozierreports:ThreeAmericancontractorswentmissinginBaghdadlateThursday,afterleavingtheheavilyfortifiedIraqimilitarybase
withouttheirsecuritydetail,armedonlywithpistols,accordingtoacontractorwithfirsthandknowledgeoftheincident.TheDailyBeast

Turkey

ATurkishsecurityforcecampaignagainstKurdishmilitantsinthesoutheasthasbeenlargelycompleted,PrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluwas
reportedassayingonTuesday,asheoutlinedplanstomaintaintightercontrolinpartsoftheregion.-Reuters

LawyersforTurkishPresidentTayyipErdoganfiledalawsuitagainstthemainoppositionleaderonMondayforimplyingthatErdoganwasa
dictator,presidentialsourcesandtheoppositionpartysaid.-Reuters

ReturntoTop

Asia
CentralAsia

TheUzbekgovernment,lobbiedbyrightsgroupsandpressuredquietlybytheUnitedStatestofreeahigh-profilepoliticalprisoner,hasfinally
revealedasecret:Hediedfiveyearsago.NewYorkTimes

LackofagreementonwhowouldcontrolaseparateIndianSpecialForcesCommand(SFC)hasstymiedcreationoftheunitdespitethemilitary's
urgentdesireforone.MilitaryTimes

China

Chinasgrowthslowedfurtherlastyear,addingtothetroublingeconomicpicturethatisunsettlinginvestorsaroundtheworld.NewYorkTimes

WhenChinasgovernmentreportsTuesdayontheeconomysperformancelastyear,onecentralquestionwillhavealreadybeenanswered:
Growthslowedtoitsmostanemicpaceinaquartercentury.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Traditionally,collegesconducton-campusinterviewsorenlistalumnitohelp.ButwiththesurgeinapplicationsfromChina,collegesareunableto
keepupwiththevolumeofinterviewrequests.Tosiftthroughthefloodofapplicants,moreAmericaninstitutionshavesoughtthird-party
interviewswithprospectivestudents.NewYorkTimes

WheneverChinaseconomyshowssignsoffaltering,Beijingtypicallymovestostimulategrowthbyboostingspendingoninfrastructureand
thatnormallygivesthingsakickstart.Thistimearound,however,policymakershadresortedtothesamestrategyonlytofindthemselvesfacing
unusualheadwinds,asevidencedbyTuesdaysnewsthatChinaposteditsslowestgrowthinaquartercenturyin2015.WSJsChinaRealTime

ChinasgovernmenthaslaunchedanonlinedatabaseofTibetanlivingBuddhasaspartofwhatcriticsviewasabroaderstruggletocontrolthe
legacyoftheexiledDalaiLama.FinancialTimes

Chineseauthoritieswillprosecutetwoformerseniorofficials,includingaone-timevicemayorofShanghai,forcorruption,afterprobesfoundthey
abusedtheirpowerandtookbribes,therulingCommunistParty'santi-graftwatchdogsaidonTuesday.-Reuters

HongKong

GuiMinhai,theowneroftheHongKongpublisherMightyCurrentwhohasbeenmissingsinceOctober,appearedonChinesestatetelevisionlast
night(Jan.17)andmadeatearfulconfessionhehadkilleda20-year-oldcollegestudentwhiledrunkdrivinginNingbo,acityinsoutheastern
Zhejiangprovince,inDecemberof2003.Guisfriendsandfamilyhavetheirdoubts,andsayhisconfessionlooksscriptedandtheystillbelievehe
wasabducted.-Quartz

HongKongpolicehaveconfirmedthatanotherofagroupoffivemissingbooksellerswhosoldworkscriticalofBeijingisinmainlandChina,justa
dayafterhiscolleaguewasparadedonChinesestateTVconfessingtoa12-year-olddrink-drivingoffenceFinancialTimes

ASwedishbooksellerwhosemysteriousdisappearancesparkedfearshemayhavebeenabductedbyChineseagentssaidhehadvoluntarily
turnedhimselfintotheauthoritiesoverafataldrink-drivingoffensemorethanadecadeago.-Reuters

OneofHongKong'sstaunchestpro-Beijinglawmakerssaidabookseller'stearfulconfessiononstatetelevisiontoahit-and-runaccidentmore
thanadecadeagoinChinaisunlikelytoappeasepublicconcernsthathemayhavebeenabducted.-Reuters

Editorial:Thechargeagainstthelawyers,subvertingstatepower,isabsurd.Thelawyersweresimplyadvisingclientshowtodefendthemselves
underChinaslawstheirintentionswerepragmaticandrelativelymodest.Butitisnowcleartheytouchedaverysensitivenerve,andChinas
rulersreactedharshly.Thegrayzoneisbeingturnedintoatwilightzoneoffear,amessagetoanyonethattheycanbetakenawayinthemiddleof
thenight.WashingtonPost

Editorial:Whenreportsofthemissingbooksellerssurfaced,somespeculatedthatrogueChineseagentscouldhavemountedasnatch-and-grab
campaignwithoutapprovalfromhigher-upsinBeijing.Mr.Guistelevisedconfessionsuggestsofficialknowledgeandcomplicity.Thecases
representanescalationofChinasassaultsonjournalism,theautonomyofHongKongandtherightsofoverseasChinesewhoarecitizensof
othersovereignnations.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

JeromeCohenwrites:IfthecurrentChinesepresidentweretohonorhisfatherspolicy,Chinasprospectsfortransitioningfromdictatorshipto
democracywouldbebrighter.SotoowouldbethefutureofChinaspubliclawyers.Ihopethattheywillcontinuethestruggle,evenwithonearm
tiedbehindthem.Itwouldbetragic,forbothlawyersandChinesesociety,iftheyweretobecomemeretechnicalpractitioners.WallStreet
Journal(subscriptionrequired)

Taiwan

NodogmaismoreimportanttoBeijingthanOneChina,theconceptthatTaiwanisapartofasingleChinesenationjusttemporarilyestranged.
Americaandmuchoftherestoftheworldacquiescetothatposition,denyingtherealitythatTaiwanhassetitscourseasanindependentstate.
Lastweekendsvote,inwhichtheTaiwaneseelectorateoverwhelmingendorsedapartythatrejectsBeijingsOneChinaformula,confirmedthe
directioninthemostemphaticwaytodate.ThatnotonlyputsChinainabind,buttheU.S.too.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

TheelectionofTsaiIng-wenaspresidentofTaiwanwasmetinChinaonMondaywithsparseandlargelycriticalcomment,suggestingbothalack
ofinteresttowardacandidatewhosepartysnativistleaningsmanyordinaryChinesedonotunderstandandcensorshipinthenewsmediaand
onlineforumsaboutanoutcomethattheCommunistPartyhadnotwishedtosee.NewYorkTimes

PatrickCroninandPhoebeBenichwrite:ThesewindsofchangeoriginatinginTaiwanarealsocertaintobuffetthenextU.S.president.Since
normalizingrelationswithChinaandthepassageoftheTaiwanRelationsActin1979,repeatedadministrationshavemaintainedahighdegreeof
ambiguityregardingsupportforTaiwan.AreenergizedTaiwaneseelectoratewilltestthelongevityofAmericascurrentstrategicambiguityabout
theactualextentofitscommitmenttoTaiwanForeignPolicy

NorthKorea

[E]venasnewsanctionsloom,NorthKoreasbiggesttesttodatehasthrownintostarkreliefthefailureofexistingonestohaltitsnuclear
progressandwithChinastillunwillingtocastitstreatyallyintoeconomicruin,analystsseelittlehopethatthenextroundofmeasureswill
achievethatgoal.FinancialTimes

NorthKoreanleaderKimJongUn'srecentnuclearweapontestwasdesignedtoboosthisdomesticlegitimacyaheadofararerulingparty
conferenceinMaythatcouldformalizemarket-basedeconomicexperimentsintheisolatedcountry,analystssay.-Reuters

VictorGilinskyandHenrySokolskiwrite:ThefirstthingtosayaboutNorthKoreasJan.6nucleartestisthat,despitethepronouncementsof
instantexperts,weknowalmostnothingaboutitstechnicalcharacteristics.Eventherelationoftheseismicsignaltotheactualsizeofthe
explosionisuncertain.Buttherearesomehintsaboutthetestssignificanceforproliferationthatthepress,initseagernesstodismissNorth
Koreasclaimthatitdetonatedahydrogenweapon,seemstohavemissed.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SoutheastAsia

Theoutcomeofthesecongressesisusuallysettledmonthsinadvance,butaprotractedspatbetweenfactionsloyaltoMr.DungandMr.Trong
hasresultedinlast-minutemaneuvering.WhoevercomesoutontopcoulddeterminethefutureofVietnamscarefullycalibratedstrategicbalance
betweenChina,itsideologicalallyandmaintradingpartner,andtheUnitedStates,whichthepartyeliteincreasinglyconsidersanimportant
counterweightagainstgrowingChineseinfluenceintheregion.NewYorkTimes

ElectionbattlesinthePhilippinesarentjustfoughtoverwhogetsthemostvotes,butalsowhogetstoparticipate,withoneoftheleading
candidatesforthisyearspresidentialrace,GracePoe,waitingfortheSupremeCourttodecidewhethersheiseligibletoleadthecountry.Wall
StreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

MyanmararmychiefMinAungHlaingnominatedmilitaryofficers,whoholdaquarterofseatsinparliament,totheirposts,statemediasaidon
Tuesday,anotherstepbythearmyinwhathassofarsurprisedmanyasaremarkablypeacefultransition.-Reuters

ChinaaccusedthePhilippinesonTuesdayofdeliberatelytryingtoscarepeoplebysayingChinahadwarnedasmallcivilianplanecarrying
PhilippineofficialsitwastrespassingastheyinspectedanislandinthedisputedSouthChinaSea.-Reuters

Australia

PresidentBarackObamaiswelcominghisfirstforeignleaderofthenewyear,AustralianPrimeMinisterMalcolmTurnbull,fortalksthatwillcover
theIslamicStatemilitantgroupanda12-nationPacificRimtradeagreementthatincludestheircountries.AssociatedPress

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Security

Cybersecurity

Cyberattackswagedagainstthenation'scriticalmanufacturingsectornearlydoubledinfiscalyear2015,governmentexpertssaidinanewreport.
WashingtonTimes

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Russia/Europe
Ukraine

WhenafriendinKyivcalledIsraeli-AmericanfilmmakerEvgenyAfineevskyinNovember2013andconvincedhimtodropeverythingandtakehis
camerastoUkrainebecause"somethingwashappening"there,hehadnoideawhathewasgettinghimselfinto,letalonethatitwouldleadtoan
Oscarnomination.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheEuropeanUnionpressedUkraineauthoritiesonMondaytoovercomepoliticalfeudingandimplementpromisedreformsasitlookstoshore
upthecountry'sdemocraticandeconomiccredentials.-Reuters

AndersAslundwrites:Ukrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.
Thecountryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.Nevertheless,
thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbein2016.AtlanticCouncil

Russia

Kara-MurzaalsobelieveshispoisoningmayhavebeenanactofrevengeforhislobbyingforU.S.sanctionsagainstRussianofficialsunderthe
MagnitskyAct,namedforSergeiMagnitsky,awhistleblowingRussianlawyerwhodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afteraccusingofficialsoflarge-
scalefraud.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheRussianStateDumaCommitteeonConstitutionalLegislationandState-Buildinghasdeclinedtoendorseacontroversialdraftbillthatwould
introducefinesandarrestsforpeoplewhopubliclyexpresstheirhomosexuality.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Russiasrublecurrency,batteredbyfallingglobaloilprices,hasdroppedtoitslowestvalueoncurrencyexchangemarketsinmorethanayear.
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

France

ThegroupsformationunderscoreshowtheU.S.andFrenchhaveexpandedtheirrelationshipastheU.S.-ledcoalitionagainsttheIslamicState
preparesforanexpansionofthewar.OnTuesday,Carterwillembarkonamulti-daytriptoEuropethatincludesmeetingsinPariswithdefense
ministersfromthecountriesprovidingsomeofthemostsignificantcontributionstothemilitarycampaign:France,Australia,Germany,Italy,the
NetherlandsandBritainWashingtonPostsCheckpoint

MorethanayearaftertheterrorattacksonCharlieHebdoandaPariskoshersupermarket,thevictimsrelativesarestilldemandinganswerson
whetherorhowFrancesgovernmentandsecurityforcesfailed.-Politico

Germany

JosefJoffewrites:Youcanthaveopenbordersandamunificentwelfarestate.Somethinghastogive.SinceevenMightyMerkelcannotoverturn
ancientdispensations,shewillinevitablyslipintoNo,wecantandcloseborders,astheSwedesandDaneshavedone.High-mindedness
stopsattheballotbox.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

JohnVinocurwrites:Thechancellornowfacesasocietythatisgaggingontherealizationthatotherone-timepillarsofnationalprobityhave
crackedfortheworldtoseeDeutscheBankwithits$2.5billionfinebyU.S.regulatorslastyearforraterigging,andVolkswagen,facingmassive
lawsuitsafteracknowledgingitfakeditscarsemission-controlcapabilities.Byitsownstandards,Germanyisreeling.AngelaMerkelnolonger
hasthecountryfullyinhergrasp.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Europe

TheEuropeanUnionandtheU.S.areracingtomeetadeadlineonanewcommercialdata-sharingaccordtoreplaceonestruckdownbytheEU
lastyearbecauseofconcernsoverAmericansurveillancepractices.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

AspresidentoftheEuropeanCouncilthegrouprepresentingtheEuropeanUnionsoften-clashing28leadersDonaldTuskisforever
promotingabalancebetweennationalsovereigntyononehandandcommonvaluesandgoalsontheother.OnMonday,hischallengewas
especiallypersonal.NewYorkTimes

[T]hedozensofmembersoftheBritishParliamentwhospentanextraordinarythreehoursMondaydebatingaboutthefront-runnerforthe
RepublicannominationforU.S.presidentdidnotbanDonaldTrump.WashingtonPost

NATO

PolandwantsNATOtoagreetodeploy'substantial'numbersofforcesandequipmentincentralandeasternEuropetoensuretheregion'ssecurity
inthefaceofamoreaggressiveRussia,PresidentAndrzejDudasaidonMonday.-Reuters

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Americas
LatinAmerica

Justweeksbeforelawmakerswillconsiderherfate,BrazilianPresidentDilmaRousseffisdesperatelytryingtodemonstratethatsheisstillin
chargeofSouthAmerica'smostpopulousnation.WashingtonTimes

PresidentDilmaRousseff'sopponentswithinhermaincoalitionpartner,thefractiousBrazilianDemocraticMovementParty(PMDB),arelosing
hopethattheycanimpeachtheleftistleaderandreplaceherwiththeirman,VicePresidentMichelTemer.-Reuters

AnagreementtobuildoiltankersinIranforVenezuelahasbeenleftinlimboyearsafteritwasannouncedasWesternsanctionsplus
disagreementsoverpaymentsanddeliverytermstooktheirtoll,sourcesfamiliarwiththemattersay.-Reuters

TobyDershowitzandJosephHumirewrite:Thepost-dealinfluxofinternationalinvestmenttoIranwillsurelychallengeMacriseffortstocurb
Tehransinfluenceathome.Sofar,hehasshownheisuptothistask.ItisimperativethattheU.S.andotherfriendlygovernmentshelpthenew
Argentinepresidentasheseekstorighthiscountrysjudicialintegrity,aneffortforwhichAlbertoNismangavehislifetoprotect.TheHill

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TheFPIOvernightBriefisadailyproductoftheForeignPolicyInitiative,whichseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreignpolicycommittedto
robustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmericasglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Tosubmitcommentsorsuggestions,emailovernight@foreignpolicyi.org.

TheForeignPolicyInitiative Telephone:(202)296-3322
11DupontCircle,NWSuite325 E-mail:info@foreignpolicyi.org
Washington,D.C.20036 VisitOurWebsite
Tounsubscribe,clickhere DonatetoFPI

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/19/201608:48:48AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere!(seelengthyVIDEO)

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,January19,20168:48AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere!(seelengthy
VIDEO)

URL:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/tv/topics/71484.html?print=1

Aspunishmenttheauthoritieshavebeendumpingallthesnowfromsurroundingdistrictsnexttothe
campfurtherisolatingtheprotesters(shownonvideo).

And:InRussiaSOCIALPROTESTShavebegunanew,http://echo.msk.ru/news/1696504echo.html

InspiredbythesuccessfulprotestactionofPENSIONERSinKrasnodarandSochi,studentsin
NOVGORODarethreateningamajorstrikeovertheremovalordownsizingoftheirtransportation
benefits.

And:ForthedeclarationoftheNovgorodstudents,signedby1052supporters,see:Studencheskii
proezdnoivernut!VELIKIINOVGOROD,http://www.change.org/

And:StudentsinGreatNovgorodhavethreatenedtogooutontothestreets,
http://tvrain.ru/news/proezd401936/

And:Russianoligarchs[Abramovich,Usmanov,Potaninandothers]lose$11bninjusttendays
duringoilpricecrash,telegraph.co.uk,1/18

And:InU.S.moneylaunderingcase,shadesofRussianCORRUPTION,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27494612.html

And:OnconditionsintheLUHANSKbasements(controlledbytheseparatists)whereUkrainian
prisonersofwarhavebeentormentedanddied:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71465.html?
print=1

And:The[Russian]CommissionontheDefenseofStateSecretshasdeclinedtomakepublicthe
archivesoftheKGB,http://grani.ru/Politics/FSB/m.247829.html

Thearchivesofthesecretpolicefor19171991willbepreservedinsecret.Thesedocuments
concerningtheworkofthechekistyremainactual.

And:DutchMPssuspectRUSSIANTRACEinreferendumonAssociationwithUkraine,unian.info,
1/19

And:StateDumaSpeaker[NARYSHKIN]suggestsEUsanctionKievoverMinskviolations,
themsocowtimes.com,1/19

And:HillaryCLINTON:newRESETpossibleinU.S.Russianrelationship,themoscowtimes.com,
1/19

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/19/201609:32:11AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ALATENIGHT'MUSTCONSIDER']Fwd:TimothyAsh:IsUkraine-Russianpeacedealbrewingbehindthescenes?.....[PLUS]Twoon
Subject:
RU[fromMK]......[AND]A"JustSayin'...."Piece[BC,MarcRich&SerhiyKurzin]

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,January18,20167:47PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[ALATENIGHT'MUSTCONSIDER']Fwd:TimothyAsh:IsUkraine-Russianpeacedealbrewingbehindthescenes?.....[PLUS]
TwoonRU[fromMK]......[AND]A"JustSayin'...."Piece[BC,MarcRich&SerhiyKurzin]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Mon,Jan18,2016at8:49PM
Subject:TimothyAsh:IsUkraine-Russianpeacedealbrewingbehindthescenes?
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-is-ukraine-russian-peace-deal-brewing-behind-the-scenes-
406166.html

Something significant might be happening in the Ukraine peace process.

First, we had the appointment of Boris Gryzlov, a real Kremlin heavyweight as Moscows representative to
peace talks. One read is that the appointment of a serious Kremlin insider to such a role suggests that Russian
President Vladimir Putin is now willing to seriously negotiate towards some kind of settlement, which might
just be acceptable to Kyiv rather than the previous policy which seemed to be to demand concessions
which were never really deliverable in Kyiv, and which were just meant to destabilize domestic politics in
Ukraine, or to undermine the security situation and macro stability and financing with it.

Second, President Petro Poroshenko last week spoke about securing control over Ukraines borders again this
year with some suggesting that he would not have made this claim unless he thought there was a
reasonable chance of delivering on it.

Third, the U.S. assistant secretary of state, Victory Nuland, had a meeting late last week in the Russian
enclave of Kaliningrad, with Vladislav Surkov, another close adviser to Putin. The session was described as a
brainstorming session over possible resolutions over the crisis in Ukraine, and generally feedback from
both sides was that the discussions were constructive. U.S. officials also spoke about the prospect of
sanctions on Ukraine over Donbas being relieved if they see Minsk implementation albeit retaining those
over Crimea.
Fourth, French and German envoys to the Ukrainian Normandy peace process are due in Kyiv this week for
highlevel discussions.

Fifth, Russia seems to be holding back from pursuing the nuclear, legal, card over the $3 billion in monies lent
to the former Yanukovych regime, due in December, but now in effect in default.

Now both sides still seem to be maneuvering for position e.g. with Russias imposition of a transit ban on
Ukrainian exports to Kazakhstan, and Ukraines decision to hike gas transit fees on Russian gas transit to
Europe the latter bringing a tripling of the tariff, and hitting Russian when it is already smarting over the
drop in oil prices. But we have consistently seen some escalation by the sides in the run up to key
negotiations, and it might be the same this time around.

So why the sudden move on the part of Moscow to deal?

First, I think what is clear is that Russia is now facing a much more difficult economic outlook than even a
few months ago. The drop in oil prices over the past month, amid the SaudiIran schism, seems to have
been the gamechanger for Moscow and survival of the regime seems to now be the name of the game (or
at least there is serious concern how long Russias balance sheet can hold up to ensure social stability).

Remember, only a month ago the budget was being based on the assumption of $50 a barrel average oil
prices, a flat real gross domestic product growth performance, even growth, and the ruble holding at around
63 to to the dollar.

Now with oil sub$30 a barrel, perhaps going lower, but now more likely to stay here or go lower, the
Kremlin seems to have gone into regime survival mode.

Imagine, oil at or below the $30 a barrel level likely means a deepening or extension of the recession (minus
23 percent real GDP growth downturn, after 3.54 percent loss in 2015), a budget deficit of 56 percent of
GDP, the depletion of the Ministry of Finance'ss various reserve funds, and a drop in the ruble to beyond
ruble 80 to the dollar, with unpredictable consequences for consumer and business confidence, capital flight,
inflation and the durability of the banking sector.

GDP has dropped from over $2.1 trillion in 2013 when the crisis over Ukraine started to likely less than $1
trillion this year. This means that per capita GDP has dropped from over $15,000 to just over $7,000. And
while opinion polls still suggest strong popular support for the Putin regime, experience suggests that they do
not take this for granted, and rather are very sensitive to the potential for social and political unrest and
colored revolutions.

Recent bans on Russian tourist visits to Turkey and Egypt will at least limit the potential for Russias middle
and skilled working classes to realise just how far their foreign spending power has been crushed. But
eventually Russians will realise that they are in fact a lot poorer, and the Putin Potemkim village was not built
on very much.

Second, and related therein I think there is recognition by Moscow that the period of high oil and
commodity prices (20002013) is gone, and that the SaudiIran shism is likely now to usher in an extended
period of low oil prices and hence a much more challenging outlook for Russia I think only a few weeks
back Russian policy makers were overly sanguine over a speedy bounceback in oil prices, and perhaps
were surprised by the fact that Moscows recent Syrian intervention failed to have much impact in terms of
oil prices or leverage extracted for potential concessions over Ukraine. There is now new realism in Moscow
over likely oil price trends, what this means for the Russian economy and the social and political risks now
building domestically. So I think the willingness to partake in highrisk foreign adventures, such as in Ukraine,
is now moderating.

Third, recognition that Western sanctions against Russia are working after all and despite all the skepticism
in the West and elsewhere that they were pointless.

True, they may not have been the main factor forcing Moscow back to the negotiating table over Ukraine
(oil was), but they have made a brutally difficult economic situation for Russia because of low oil prices
that much more painful, arguably now to breaking point. So faced by a now acutely difficult domestic
economic situation, Moscow is desperate for some light relief and does not want to be seen as still being in
the sanctions bad boy corner, while Iran has been let out of detention.

Fourth, perhaps recognition that Moscows policy towards Ukraine has essentially failed Putin might have
secured Crimea, but at the price of the loss of the rest of Ukraine.

The military option largely failed In Donbas as Moscow was unwilling to deploy the required massive
military deployment to ensure victory and to engage in total war, while the Ukrainians proved willing to
fight, and as time goes by their capability to defend Ukraine (they dont need an offensive capability) is
growing, taking the military option off the table for Moscow in effect.

Meanwhile, other efforts to extract leverage by Moscow including the energy, debt and trade accounts are
all weakening over time.

In energy Ukraine has cut imports from Russia in gas to near zero, while low oil and energy prices reduce
Russias leverage further.

The trade channel has similarly been cut off for Moscow, by the collapse in RussiaUkraine trade over the
past 23 years, and Russias efforts to impose a transit ban is now viewed as somewhat desperate, and
trade/transit bans now threaten to hurt Russia more by threatening key supplies of military inputs.

Even the debtdefault channel has been nullified by the private sector restructuring, provision of
International Monetary Fund financing, leaving Moscow now with the prospect of a longdrawn out, and still
possibly fruitless legal battle over the $3 billion in Eurobonds lent to the former Viktor Yanukovych regime.

The harder that Moscow now presses Ukraine in the trade, economy, debt and energy fields, the more
independent of Russia Ukraine becomes, and the weaker foothold that Russia will have for the future in
Ukraine. Thus having lost the battle for heart and minds in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea and the
military intervention in Donbas, there will be little reason for Ukrainians to economically interact with Russia
and even more to develop other economic relationships Westwards.

Fifth, there is perhaps a final hope that the best way to keep Moscows options open now in Ukraine is to
adopt a less confrontational approach and to assume that Ukrainian politicians revert to script over the past
20 years and selfdestruct under their own momentum.

Reviewing the above the question is still whether Russias longterm strategic objectives towards Ukraine
have changed i.e. to bring it back within its sphere of influence but in the short term Moscow seems to
be signaling a desire to compromise, and to deal.

The question then is how far it is willing to back down over issues stalling Minsk II implementation.

For the US, the key issue remains as Poroshenko says, control over its borders, which for Russia would mean
cutting off military supplies/resupply to the (separatist) regimes, and the potential that these authorities
could collapse when cut from support lines to Moscow.

Ideally Moscow still seems to be pushing for assurances over some form of enhanced autonomy (Kosovostyle)
or a federalstyle solution which are still clearly unacceptable to Kyiv.

But importantly, Moscow seems to be willing to deal and this was likely the topic of discussion for
Nuland/Surkov, and also for Boris Gryzlov in his recent trip to Kyiv. The question will be how far Poroshenko
wants to push Moscow at this stage, and will the West be cajoling him along to accept a compromise which
still might be difficult for him to sell back home, and could still destabilize domestic politics in Ukraine.
Many in Ukraine would be nervous over the speedy return of (Russiancontrolled territories in the Donbas ) to
Ukrainian control over fear that they could act either as a Trojan horse within Ukraine, and/or provide a
huge drain again on an already weak state.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jan18,2016at9:53PM
Subject:TweetbyDavidPatrikarakosonTwitter[#Russiangeneralswhodiedmysteriously:hanged,shotthemselves,
jumpedoutwindows,caraccidents]V@RobPulseNewspic.twitter.com/5ErPYhLZ8d
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

DavidPatrikarakos(@dpatrikarakos)

1/17/16,3:35PM

#Russia|ngeneralswhodiedmysteriously:hanged,shotthemselves,jumpedoutwindows,caraccidents
V@RobPulseNewspic.twitter.com/5ErPYhLZ8d

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jan18,2016at10:32PM
Subject:RussiaAimingForZeroPercentGrowthLiveUpdates,followedbyChechenSpeakerofParliamentandSenator
ContinueAttacksonLiberalOppositionEkhoMoskvy,TVRainRespond
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

ChechenSpeakerofParliamentandSenatorContinueAttacksonLiberalOppositionEkhoMoskvy,TVRain
Respond

http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-aiming-for-zero-percent-growth-live-updates/#11937

Prettyscarystuff,thisKadyrov&henchmen.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JFB
Date:Mon,Jan18,2016at9:17AM
Subject:NEWYORKPOST:BillClinton,MarcRich&SergeiKurzin[ED:JustSayin'.......]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

http://nypost.com/2016/01/17/after-pardoning-criminal-marc-rich-clintons-made-millions-off-friends/

BillClintonspardonoffugitiveMarcRichcontinuestopaybig

byPeterSchweizer

Fifteenyearsagothismonth,onJan.20,2001,hislastdayinoffice,BillClintonissuedapardonforinternationalfugitiveMarc
Rich.ItwouldbecomeperhapsthemostcondemnedofficialactofClintonspoliticalcareer.ANewYorkTimeseditorialcalledit
ashockingabuseofpresidentialpower.TheusuallyClinton-friendlyNewRepublicnoteditisoftenmentionedasExhibitAof
Clintoniansliminess.

CongressmanBarneyFrankadded,ItwasarealbetrayalbyBillClintonofallwhohadbeenstronglysupportiveofhimtodo
somethingthisunjustified.Itwascontemptuous."

MarcRichwaswantedforalistofchargesgoingbackdecades.HehadtradedillegallywithAmericasenemiesincluding
AyatollahKhomeinisIran,whereheboughtabout$200millionworthofoilwhilerevolutionariesalliedwithKhomeiniheld53
Americanhostagesin1979.

Richmadealargepartofhiswealth,approximately$2billionbetween1979and1994,sellingoiltotheapartheidregimeinSouth
AfricawhenitfacedaUNembargo.HediddealswithKhadafysLibya,MilosevicsYugoslavia,KimIlSungsNorthKorea,
CommunistdictatorshipsinCubaandtheSovietUnionitself.LittlesurprisethathewasontheFBIsTenMostWantedList.

FacingprosecutionbyRudyGiulianiin1983,RichfledtoSwitzerlandandlivedinexile.

WhatbotheredsomanywasthatClintonsclemencytoRichreekedofpayoff.Intherun-uptothepresidentialpardon,the
financiersex-wifeDenisehaddonated$450,000tothefledglingClintonLibraryandover$1milliontoDemocraticcampaignsin
theClintoneraJudgeAbnerMikva,acounselintheClintonWhiteHouseandmentortoPresidentObama,notedthateven
Obamawasvery,verydismayedbytheMarcRichpardonandthebasisonwhichitappearstohavebeengranted.

Butdoesthestoryendthere?Isitpossiblethepayoffscontinuedafterheleftoffice?

Thestenchofthescandalinearly2001sentpeoplescurrying.DaysafteritwasrevealedthataseniorUBSexecutivenamed
PierredeWeckhadwrittenalettertoClintontosupporthisrequestforapardon,theSwissbankinggiantcanceledits
discussionswithClintonaboutalucrativepost-WhiteHousespeech,apparentlyworried