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From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.

edu>
Senttime: 05/18/201608:59:03AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: FW:Anti-realismfromtheinside

Youseethis?Itsprettydamngood.

From:DonaldJensen[mailto:donald.jensen8@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,May17,20167:12AM
To:LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>;DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>;MichaelWeiss
<macspaunday@gmail.com>;JamesKirchick<james.kirchick@gmail.com>
Subject:Antirealismfromtheinside

Givethekidacigar,thoughSimesprobablyhasalreadyfiredhisa$$.

http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/donald-trump-will-not-save-realism-from-itself/
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/23/201610:43:35AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"AFRIENDoftheKREMLIN"isverynarrowlydefeatedinAUSTRIANpresidentialelections,rferl/org,5/23

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,May23,201610:43AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"AFRIENDoftheKREMLIN"isverynarrowlydefeatedinAUSTRIANpresidentialelections,rferl/org,5/23

And:AsonofaWhitemigrhasdefeatedafriendoftheKREMLIN,
http://.www.svoboda.org/articlprintvew/27752781.html

And:FarrightcandidatenarrowlyDEFEATEDinAustrianpresidentialelection,theguardian.com,
5/23

AlexanderVanderBellen,aretiredeconomicsprofessorbackedbytheGreenparty,defeated
NorbertHoferoftheantiimmigrant,EuroscepticFreedomPartyVonderBellensfatherwasbornin
RussiatoafamilydescendedfromDutchimmigrantsandhismotherwasborninEstonia,fromwhere
thecouplefledwhentheformerSovietUnioninvadedin1940

And:NewLEVADACenterpoll:RussiansseeeconomicCRISISascountrysbiggestinternalthreat,
themoscowtimes.com,5/23

Economicproblems,decliningeconomicgrowthandanincreaseofthenationaldebtwerenamedas
Russiasbiggestinternalthreatsby44%ofRussiansPoliticalissues,suchastheirresponsibilityof
theauthoritiesandtheweakeningofRussiasunityweredescribedasalarmingbyamere16and9
percentofrespondents,respectively.

And:ZHIRINOVSKYofferstoannihilate200,000peopleinanuclearstrike,unian.info,5/23

And:LOCKERBEELAWYERseeks$300millionfromPutin,RussiaforMH17disaster,reuters.com,
5/23

And:RussianSECURITYCOUNCILslamsU.S.refusalforjointSyriabombing,themoscowtimes.com,
5/23

And:TheREALINCOMEofRussiansisfalling(fromRosstat),
http://www.komemrsant.ru/doc/2994775

And:[Russias]singleindustrytownsaresinkingdeeperintounemployment,
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/73158.html?print=1

And:NAVALNY,blog,Thereappointmentof[GeneralProcurator]CHAIKA,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corruption/1770694echo/
HeremindshisreadersoftheveryseriouscorruptionchargeswhichhavebeenmadeagainstChaika.

And:TheelectionmonitoringhumanrightsgroupGolosaccusestheRussianspecialservicesand
NTVofconductingelectroniceavesdroppingontheorganization:http://tvrain.ru/news/golos
409890/

And:IsthemobbedupPutinsfriendTRUMPalsomobbedup?DavidCayJohnston,Justwhatwere
DonaldTrumpstiestotheMOB?Ivespentyearsinvestigatingandhereswhatsknown,
politico.com.5/22

From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/18/201602:51:39PM
To: RobertOtto<ottorc@state.gov>
Subject: PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatoryApproachtotheWestandPrepareforWar

PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatoryApproachtotheWestandPrepare
forWar

RIANovosti/Reuters

BEIRUTSomethingsignificanthappenedinthelastfewdaysofApril,butitseemstheonlypersonwhonoticedwas
StephenCohen,aprofessoremeritusofRussianstudiesatNewYorkUniversityandPrincetonUniversity.

Inarecordedinterview,CohennotesthatasectionoftheRussianleadershipisshowingsignsofrestlessness,focusedon
PresidentVladimirPutinsleadership.Wearenottalkingofstreetprotesters.WearenottalkingcoupsagainstPutinhis
popularityremainsabove80percentandheisnotabouttobedisplaced.Butwearetalkingaboutseriouspressurebeing
appliedtothepresidenttocomedownfromthehighwirealongwhichhehaswarilytroduntilnow.

Putincarries,atoneendofhisbalancingpole,thevariouselitesmoreorientedtowardtheWestandtheWashington
Consensusand,atthepolesotherend,thoseconcernedthatRussiafacesbotharealmilitarythreatfromtheNorth
AtlanticTreatyOrganizationandahybridgeo-financialwaraswell.Heisbeingpressedtocomedownonthesideofthe
latter,andtoprythegripoftheformerfromtheleversofeconomicpowerthattheystilltightlyhold.
PutinmeetsRussiastopmilitarybrassintheKremlinonApril21.(MikhailKlimentyev/Sputnik,KremlinPool
PhotoviaAP)

Inshort,theissuecomingtoaheadintheKremliniswhetherRussiaissufficientlypreparedforfurtherWesterneffortsto
ensureitdoesnotimpedeorrivalAmericanhegemony.CanRussiasustainageo-financialassault,ifoneweretobe
launched?AndissuchathreatrealormereWesternposturingforotherends?

WhatissoimportantisthatiftheseeventsaremisreadintheWest,whichisalreadyprimedtoseeanyRussiandefensive
actasoffensiveandaggressive,thegroundwillalreadyhavebeenlaidforescalation.Wealreadyhadthefirstwartopush
backagainstNATOinGeorgia.ThesecondpushbackwarisongoinginUkraine.Whatmightbetheconsequencestoa
third?

Putinisbeingpushedtowieldtheknifeandtocutdeeply.

Inmid-April,GeneralAlexanderBastrykin,theheadofRussiasInvestigativeCommittee(asortofsuperattorneygeneral,
asCohendescribesit),wrotethatRussiaitsroleinSyrianotwithstandingismilitarilyillpreparedtofaceanewwar
eitherathomeorabroad,andthattheeconomyisinabadway,too.Russia,furthermore,isequallyillpreparedto
withstandageo-financialwar.HegoesontosaythattheWestispreparingforwaragainstRussiaandthatRussias
leadershipdoesnotappeartobeawareoforalerttothedangerthecountryfaces.

BastrykindoesnotsaythatPutinistoblame,thoughthecontextmakesitclearthatthisiswhathemeans.Butafewdays
later,Cohenexplains,thearticlesparkedfurtherdiscussionfromthosewhobothendorseBastrykinanddoprecisely
mentionPutinbyname.Then,Cohennotes,aretiredRussiangeneralenteredthefraytoconfirmthattheWestisindeed
preparingforwarhepointedtoNATOdeploymentsintheBaltics,theBlackSeaandPoland,amongotherplaces
andunderlinesagaintheunpreparednessoftheRussianmilitarytofacethisthreat.ThisisaheavyindictmentofPutin,
Cohensaysoftherevelationsfromthisanalysis.Itisnowoutintheopen.
SouvenirplatesdepictingSyriasPresidentBasharal-AssadandPutininDamascusonFeb.8.(REUTERS/Omar
Sanadiki)

Whatisthisallabout?ForsometimetherehavebeenindicationsthatakeyfactionwithintheKremlin,onethatvery
looselymightbetermednationalist,hasbecomedeeplydisenchantedwithPutinstolerationoftheWashington
ConsensusanditsadherentsattheRussiancentralbankandinotherpivotaleconomicposts.Thenationalistswantthem
purged,alongwithPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevsperceivedWestern-friendlygovernment.Putinmaybehighly
popular,butMedvedevsgovernmentisnot.Thegovernmentseconomicpolicyisbeingcriticized.Theopposingfaction
wantstoseeanimmediatemobilizationofthemilitaryandtheeconomyforwar,conventionalorhybrid.Thisisnotabout
wantingPutinousteditisaboutpushinghimtowieldtheknifeandtocutdeeply.

WhatdoesthisfactionwantapartfromRussiapreparingforwar?TheywantaharderlineinUkraineandforPutinto
rejectU.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerryssnaresinSyria.Inshort,KerryisstilltryingtoforceAssadsremovaland
continuestopushforfurtherU.S.supportfortheopposition.TheAmericangovernmentisreluctantaswelltodisentangle
moderatesfromjihadis.TheviewisthatAmericaisinsincereintryingtocooperatewithRussiaonasettlementand
moreintentonentrappingPutininSyria.Perhapsthisisright,asGarethPorterandElijahMagnierhaveoutlined.

TheObamaadministrationisactingtoweakenPutinandLavrovshand,andthereforestrengtheningthe
handofthoseinRussiacallingforafullmobilizationforwar.

WhatthismeansatamorefundamentallevelisthatPutinisbeingaskedtosidewiththenationalistsagainstthe
internationalistsalignedwiththeWashingtonConsensus,andtopurgethemfrompower.Recall,however,thatPutincame
topowerpreciselytotemperthispolaritywithinRussiansocietybyrisingaboveittohealandrebuildadiversesociety
recoveringfromdeepdivisionsandcrises.Heisbeingaskedtorenouncethatforwhichhestandsbecause,heisbeing
told,RussiaisbeingthreatenedbyaWestthatispreparingforwar.

TheprospectoftheseeminginevitabilityoffutureconflictishardlynewtoPutin,whohasspokenoftenonthistheme.He
has,however,chosentoreactbyplacingtheemphasisongainingtimeforRussiatostrengthenitselfandtryingtocorner
theWestintosomesortofcooperationorpartnershiponapoliticalsettlementinSyria,forexample,whichmighthave
deflectedthewardynamicintoamorepositivecourse.Putinhas,atthesametime,skillfullysteeredEuropeansawayfrom
NATOescalation.
KerryandSergeyLavrovinMoscowonMarch24.(APPhoto/AndrewHarnik,Pool)

ButinbothoftheseobjectivestheObamaadministrationisactingtoweakenPutinandLavrovshand,andtherefore
strengtheningthehandofthoseinRussiacallingforafullmobilizationforwar.ItisnotcoincidentalthatBastrykinsalarm-
raisingarticlecamenow,astheSyriaceasefireisbeingdeliberatelyinfringedandbroken.Isthisproperlyunderstoodin
theWhiteHouse?Ifso,mustweconcludethatescalationagainstRussiaisdesired?AsCohennotes,theWashington
Post[initseditorialpages]tellsusregularlythatnever,never,never...underanycircumstances,canthecriminalPutinbe
astrategicpartneroftheUnitedStates.

Isthediethencast?IsPutinboundtofail?Isconflictinevitable?Ostensibly,itmayseemso.Thestageiscertainlybeing
set.Ihavewrittenbeforeon,thepivotalreadyunderwayfromwithintheU.S.defenseandintelligencearmsofObamas
ownadministrationtowardwhatisoftenreferredtoastheWolfowitzdoctrine,asetofpoliciesdevelopedbytheU.S.
inthe1990sandearly2000s.Theauthorofoneofthosepolicies,the1992U.S.DefensePlanningGuidance,wrotethat
theDPGinessencesoughtto:

...precludetheemergenceofbipolarity,anotherglobalrivalryliketheColdWar,ormultipolarity,aworldofmany
greatpowers,asexistedbeforethetwoworldwars.Todoso,thekeywastopreventahostilepowerfrom
dominatingacriticalregion,definedashavingtheresources,industrialcapabilitiesandpopulationthat,ifcontrolled
byahostilepower,wouldposeaglobalchallenge.

InaninterviewwithVox,U.S.SecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterwasclearthatthiswasbroadlythebearingbywhich
thePentagonwasbeingdirectedtosail.Thenagain,thereistheratherobviousfactthat,insteadofthemuch-toutedU.S.
militarypivotostensiblybeingtoAsia,theactualNATOpivotisbeingdirectedtoCentralEuropetoRussiasborders.
AndNATOisplainlypushingtheenvelopeashardasitdares,upandagainstRussiasborders.

Thenthereistherhetoric:Russianaggression.RussianambitionstorecovertheformerSovietEmpire.Russianattemptsto
divideanddestroyEurope.Andsoon.

Isconflictinevitable?

Why?ItmaybethatNATOsimplypresumestheseenvelope-pushingexerciseswillneveractuallycometowar,that
Russiasomehowwillbackoff.AndthatcontinuouslypokingthebearwillserveAmericasinterestinkeepingEurope
togetherandNATOcohesive,itssanctionsinplace,dividedfromRussia.NATOisduetomeetinWarsawinearlyJuly.
Perhaps,then,theWesternlanguageaboutRussiasaggressionislittlemorethanAmericaheadingoffanyEuropean
revoltonsanctionsbystirringupapseudo-threatfromRussiaandthattheRussiansaremisreadingAmericantrue
intentions,whichdonotgobeyondthis.Ordothey?

TheextraordinarybitternessandemotionaloutragewithwhichtheAmericanestablishmenthasreactedtoDonaldTrumps
probablenominationasapresidentialcandidatesuggeststhattheU.S.establishmentisfarfromhavinggivenuponthe
Wolfowitzdoctrine.SohasPutinsstrategyofco-optingAmericaintheMiddleEastbeenthefailurethattheBastrykin
factionimplies?Inotherwords,isitthecasethatthepolicyofgainingcooperationhasfailedandthatPutinmustnow
movebeyondit,becauseAmericaisnotabouttocooperateandis,instead,continuingtheprocessofcorneringRussia?

RussianarmyofficerstrainSyrianarmysoldiersinPalmyraonMay5.(VASILYMAXIMOV/AFP/GettyImages)

AstheTexasTribunereportedonMay4,Forthefirsttimesincehisownpresidency,GeorgeH.W.Bushisplanningto
staysilentintheracefortheOvalOfficeandtheyoungerformerpresidentBushplanstostaysilentaswell.

TogetasenseofthewarwithintheRepublicanParty(andtheDemocratsarenolessconflicted),readthisreactiontothat
storybythetwo-timeRepublicanpresidentialcandidatePatBuchanan.Heresasmallselection:

TrumpstriumphisasweepingrepudiationofBushRepublicanismbythesamepartythatnominatedthem[theBushs]
fourtimesforthepresidency.Notonlywassonandbrother,Jeb,humiliatedandchasedoutoftheraceearly,but
TrumpwonhisnominationbydenouncingasrottentothecoretheprimaryfruitsofsignatureBushpolicies...Thatisa
savageindictmentoftheBushlegacy.AndaRepublicanelectorate,inthelargestturnoutinprimaryhistory,nodded,
Amentothat,brother!

Buchanancontinuesinanotherpiece:Thehubrishereastonishes.ARepublicanestablishmentthathasbeenbeatenas
badlyasCarthageintheThirdPunicWarisnowmakingdemandsonScipioAfricanusandthevictoriousRomansa
referencetoPaulRyansattemptstomakeTrumpadheretoBushRepublicanism.Thisisdifficulttoabsorb.

Buthere,inthiscrisis,isanopportunity.Americacouldbeheadingintorecession,corporateprofitsarefalling,huge
swathsofdebtarelookingsuspect,globaltradeissinkingandU.S.policytoolsforcontrollingtheglobalfinancialsystem
havelosttheircredibility.Andtherearenoeasysolutionstotheglobaloverhangofincreasinglyputriddebt.
TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannationalsecurityinterestspassdirectlythrough
Russia,whichtheyclearlydo.

ButaPresidentTrumpwerethattohappencanlayblameforanyperfecteconomicstormontheestablishment.
Americaisallknottedupatpresent,asthepresidentialnominationmeleemadeclear.Someknotswilltaketimetoundo,
butsomecouldbeundonerelativelyeasily,anditseemsthatTrumphassomesenseofthis.Itcouldstartwithadramatic
diplomaticinitiative.

Historically,mostradicalprojectsofreformhavestartedinthisway:overturnapieceofconventionalwisdomandunlock
theentirepolicygridlockthemomentumgainedwillallowareformertosteamrolleventhehardestresistanceinthis
case,WallStreetandthefinancialoligarchyintomakingreforms.

AmuralinVilnius,Lithuania,depictingTrumpandPutinonMay13.(PETRASMALUKAS/AFP/GettyImages)

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannationalsecurityinterestspassdirectlythroughRussiawhich
theyclearlydothatRussiadoesnotthreatenAmericawhichitclearlydoesnotandthatNATOis,inanycase,
obsolete,ashehassaid.ItmakesperfectsensetojoinwithRussiaanditsalliestosurroundanddestroytheso-called
IslamicState.

Ifonelistenscarefully,Trumpseemshalfwaythere.Itwouldcutalotofknots,maybeevenuntiethepolicygridlock.
Perhapsthatiswhatheintends?

DidtheColdWareverend?

SentfrommyiPad
From: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/22/201605:20:44AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:

Idon'tknowwhatheisreferringto,butthroughouthistimeinMoscowhestressedhewasnotaprofessionaldiplomat.

OnSun,May22,2016at4:53AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://mobile.twitter.com/McFaul/status/733343888933552130

SentfrommyiPad

OnMay21,2016,at10:56PM,eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>wrote:

PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatory
ApproachtotheWestandPrepareforWar
05/17/201601:07pmET|Updated4daysago

1.2K

RIANOVOSTI/REUTERS
AlastairCrooke Fmr.MI-6agentAuthor,
Resistance:TheEssenceofIslamic
Revolution BEIRUTSomethingsignificanthappenedinthelastfewdaysofApril,butit
seemstheonlypersonwhonoticedwasStephenCohen,aprofessoremeritus
ofRussianstudiesatNewYorkUniversityandPrincetonUniversity.

Inarecordedinterview,CohennotesthatasectionoftheRussianleadership
isshowingsignsofrestlessness,focusedonPresidentVladimirPutins
leadership.Wearenottalkingofstreetprotesters.Wearenottalkingcoups
againstPutinhispopularityremainsabove80percentandheisnotaboutto
bedisplaced.Butwearetalkingaboutseriouspressurebeingappliedtothe
presidenttocomedownfromthehighwirealongwhichhehaswarilytroduntil
now.

Putincarries,atoneendofhisbalancingpole,thevariouselitesmoreoriented
towardtheWestandtheWashingtonConsensusand,atthepolesother
end,thoseconcernedthatRussiafacesbotharealmilitarythreatfromthe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationandahybridgeo-financialwaraswell.Heis
beingpressedtocomedownonthesideofthelatter,andtoprythegripofthe
formerfromtheleversofeconomicpowerthattheystilltightlyhold.

putinmilitary

PutinmeetsRussiastopmilitarybrassintheKremlinonApril21.(MikhailKlimentyev/Sputnik,
KremlinPoolPhotoviaAP)

Inshort,theissuecomingtoaheadintheKremliniswhetherRussiais
sufficientlypreparedforfurtherWesterneffortstoensureitdoesnotimpedeor
rivalAmericanhegemony.CanRussiasustainageo-financialassault,ifone
weretobelaunched?AndissuchathreatrealormereWesternposturingfor
otherends?

WhatissoimportantisthatiftheseeventsaremisreadintheWest,whichis
alreadyprimedtoseeanyRussiandefensiveactasoffensiveandaggressive,
thegroundwillalreadyhavebeenlaidforescalation.Wealreadyhadthefirst
wartopushbackagainstNATOinGeorgia.Thesecondpushbackwaris
ongoinginUkraine.Whatmightbetheconsequencestoathird?

Putinisbeingpushedtowieldtheknifeandtocutdeeply.

Inmid-April,GeneralAlexanderBastrykin,theheadofRussiasInvestigative
Committee(asortofsuperattorneygeneral,asCohendescribesit),wrotethat
RussiaitsroleinSyrianotwithstandingismilitarilyillpreparedtofacea
newwareitherathomeorabroad,andthattheeconomyisinabadway,too.
Russia,furthermore,isequallyillpreparedtowithstandageo-financialwar.He
goesontosaythattheWestispreparingforwaragainstRussiaandthat
Russiasleadershipdoesnotappeartobeawareoforalerttothedangerthe
countryfaces.

BastrykindoesnotsaythatPutinistoblame,thoughthecontextmakesitclear
thatthisiswhathemeans.Butafewdayslater,Cohenexplains,the
articlesparkedfurtherdiscussionfromthosewhobothendorseBastrykinand
dopreciselymentionPutinbyname.Then,Cohennotes,aretiredRussian
generalenteredthefraytoconfirmthattheWestisindeedpreparingforwar
hepointedtoNATOdeploymentsintheBaltics,theBlackSeaandPoland,
amongotherplacesandunderlinesagaintheunpreparednessofthe
Russianmilitarytofacethisthreat.ThisisaheavyindictmentofPutin,Cohen
saysoftherevelationsfromthisanalysis.Itisnowoutintheopen.

assadrussia

SouvenirplatesdepictingSyriasPresidentBasharal-AssadandPutininDamascusonFeb.8.
(REUTERS/OmarSanadiki)

Whatisthisallabout?Forsometimetherehavebeenindicationsthatakey
factionwithintheKremlin,onethatverylooselymightbetermednationalist,
hasbecomedeeplydisenchantedwithPutinstolerationoftheWashington
ConsensusanditsadherentsattheRussiancentralbankandinotherpivotal
economicposts.Thenationalistswantthempurged,alongwithPrimeMinister
DmitryMedvedevsperceivedWestern-friendlygovernment.Putinmaybe
highlypopular,butMedvedevsgovernmentisnot.Thegovernmentseconomic
policyisbeingcriticized.Theopposingfactionwantstoseeanimmediate
mobilizationofthemilitaryandtheeconomyforwar,conventionalorhybrid.
ThisisnotaboutwantingPutinousteditisaboutpushinghimtowieldthe
knifeandtocutdeeply.

WhatdoesthisfactionwantapartfromRussiapreparingforwar?Theywanta
harderlineinUkraineandforPutintorejectU.S.SecretaryofStateJohn
KerryssnaresinSyria.Inshort,KerryisstilltryingtoforceAssadsremoval
andcontinuestopushforfurtherU.S.supportfortheopposition.TheAmerican
governmentisreluctantaswelltodisentanglemoderatesfromjihadis.The
viewisthatAmericaisinsincereintryingtocooperatewithRussiaona
settlementandmoreintentonentrappingPutininSyria.Perhapsthisisright,
asGarethPorterandElijahMagnierhaveoutlined.

TheObamaadministrationisactingtoweakenPutinandLavrovs
hand,andthereforestrengtheningthehandofthoseinRussia
callingforafullmobilizationforwar.

WhatthismeansatamorefundamentallevelisthatPutinisbeingaskedto
sidewiththenationalistsagainsttheinternationalistsalignedwiththe
WashingtonConsensus,andtopurgethemfrompower.Recall,however,that
PutincametopowerpreciselytotemperthispolaritywithinRussiansocietyby
risingaboveittohealandrebuildadiversesocietyrecoveringfromdeep
divisionsandcrises.Heisbeingaskedtorenouncethatforwhichhestands
because,heisbeingtold,RussiaisbeingthreatenedbyaWestthatis
preparingforwar.

Theprospectoftheseeminginevitabilityoffutureconflictishardlynewto
Putin,whohasspokenoftenonthistheme.Hehas,however,chosentoreact
byplacingtheemphasisongainingtimeforRussiatostrengthenitselfand
tryingtocornertheWestintosomesortofcooperationorpartnershipona
politicalsettlementinSyria,forexample,whichmighthavedeflectedthewar
dynamicintoamorepositivecourse.Putinhas,atthesametime,skillfully
steeredEuropeansawayfromNATOescalation.

kerryrussia

KerryandSergeyLavrovinMoscowonMarch24.(APPhoto/AndrewHarnik,Pool)

ButinbothoftheseobjectivestheObamaadministrationisactingtoweaken
PutinandLavrovshand,andthereforestrengtheningthehandofthosein
Russiacallingforafullmobilizationforwar.Itisnotcoincidentalthat
Bastrykinsalarm-raisingarticlecamenow,astheSyriaceasefireisbeing
deliberatelyinfringedandbroken.IsthisproperlyunderstoodintheWhite
House?Ifso,mustweconcludethatescalationagainstRussiaisdesired?As
Cohennotes,theWashingtonPost[initseditorialpages]tellsusregularlythat
never,never,never...underanycircumstances,canthecriminalPutinbea
strategicpartneroftheUnitedStates.
Isthediethencast?IsPutinboundtofail?Isconflictinevitable?Ostensibly,it
mayseemso.Thestageiscertainlybeingset.Ihavewrittenbeforeon,the
pivotalreadyunderwayfromwithintheU.S.defenseandintelligencearmsof
ObamasownadministrationtowardwhatisoftenreferredtoastheWolfowitz
doctrine,asetofpoliciesdevelopedbytheU.S.inthe1990sandearly2000s.
Theauthorofoneofthosepolicies,the1992U.S.DefensePlanning
Guidance,wrotethattheDPGinessencesoughtto:

...precludetheemergenceofbipolarity,anotherglobalrivalryliketheCold
War,ormultipolarity,aworldofmanygreatpowers,asexistedbeforethe
twoworldwars.Todoso,thekeywastopreventahostilepowerfrom
dominatingacriticalregion,definedashavingtheresources,industrial
capabilitiesandpopulationthat,ifcontrolledbyahostilepower,would
poseaglobalchallenge.

InaninterviewwithVox,U.S.SecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterwasclear
thatthiswasbroadlythebearingbywhichthePentagonwasbeingdirectedto
sail.Thenagain,thereistheratherobviousfactthat,insteadofthemuch-
toutedU.S.militarypivotostensiblybeingtoAsia,theactualNATOpivotis
beingdirectedtoCentralEuropetoRussiasborders.AndNATOisplainly
pushingtheenvelopeashardasitdares,upandagainstRussiasborders.

Thenthereistherhetoric:Russianaggression.Russianambitionstorecover
theformerSovietEmpire.RussianattemptstodivideanddestroyEurope.And
soon.

Isconflictinevitable?

Why?ItmaybethatNATOsimplypresumestheseenvelope-pushingexercises
willneveractuallycometowar,thatRussiasomehowwillbackoff.Andthat
continuouslypokingthebearwillserveAmericasinterestinkeepingEurope
togetherandNATOcohesive,itssanctionsinplace,dividedfromRussia.
NATOisduetomeetinWarsawinearlyJuly.Perhaps,then,theWestern
languageaboutRussiasaggressionislittlemorethanAmericaheadingoff
anyEuropeanrevoltonsanctionsbystirringupapseudo-threatfromRussia
andthattheRussiansaremisreadingAmericantrueintentions,whichdonotgo
beyondthis.Ordothey?

TheextraordinarybitternessandemotionaloutragewithwhichtheAmerican
establishmenthasreactedtoDonaldTrumpsprobablenominationasa
presidentialcandidatesuggeststhattheU.S.establishmentisfarfromhaving
givenupontheWolfowitzdoctrine.SohasPutinsstrategyofco-opting
AmericaintheMiddleEastbeenthefailurethattheBastrykinfactionimplies?
Inotherwords,isitthecasethatthepolicyofgainingcooperationhasfailed
andthatPutinmustnowmovebeyondit,becauseAmericaisnotaboutto
cooperateandis,instead,continuingtheprocessofcorneringRussia?

russiasyria

RussianarmyofficerstrainSyrianarmysoldiersinPalmyraonMay5.(VASILY
MAXIMOV/AFP/GettyImages)

AstheTexasTribunereportedonMay4,Forthefirsttimesincehisown
presidency,GeorgeH.W.BushisplanningtostaysilentintheracefortheOval
OfficeandtheyoungerformerpresidentBushplanstostaysilentaswell.

TogetasenseofthewarwithintheRepublicanParty(andtheDemocratsare
nolessconflicted),readthisreactiontothatstorybythetwo-timeRepublican
presidentialcandidatePatBuchanan.Heresasmallselection:

TrumpstriumphisasweepingrepudiationofBushRepublicanismbythe
samepartythatnominatedthem[theBushs]fourtimesforthepresidency.
Notonlywassonandbrother,Jeb,humiliatedandchasedoutoftherace
early,butTrumpwonhisnominationbydenouncingasrottentothecore
theprimaryfruitsofsignatureBushpolicies...Thatisasavageindictment
oftheBushlegacy.AndaRepublicanelectorate,inthelargestturnoutin
primaryhistory,nodded,Amentothat,brother!

Buchanancontinuesinanotherpiece:Thehubrishereastonishes.A
RepublicanestablishmentthathasbeenbeatenasbadlyasCarthageinthe
ThirdPunicWarisnowmakingdemandsonScipioAfricanusandthevictorious
RomansareferencetoPaulRyansattemptstomakeTrumpadhereto
BushRepublicanism.Thisisdifficulttoabsorb.

Buthere,inthiscrisis,isanopportunity.Americacouldbeheadinginto
recession,corporateprofitsarefalling,hugeswathsofdebtarelooking
suspect,globaltradeissinkingandU.S.policytoolsforcontrollingtheglobal
financialsystemhavelosttheircredibility.Andtherearenoeasysolutionsto
theglobaloverhangofincreasinglyputriddebt.

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannational
securityinterestspassdirectlythroughRussia,whichtheyclearly
do.
ButaPresidentTrumpwerethattohappencanlayblameforanyperfect
economicstormontheestablishment.Americaisallknottedupatpresent,as
thepresidentialnominationmeleemadeclear.Someknotswilltaketimeto
undo,butsomecouldbeundonerelativelyeasily,anditseemsthatTrumphas
somesenseofthis.Itcouldstartwithadramaticdiplomaticinitiative.

Historically,mostradicalprojectsofreformhavestartedinthisway:overturna
pieceofconventionalwisdomandunlocktheentirepolicygridlockthe
momentumgainedwillallowareformertosteamrolleventhehardest
resistanceinthiscase,WallStreetandthefinancialoligarchyintomaking
reforms.

trumpputin

AmuralinVilnius,Lithuania,depictingTrumpandPutinonMay13.(PETRASMALUKAS/AFP/Getty
Images)

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannationalsecurity
interestspassdirectlythroughRussiawhichtheyclearlydothatRussia
doesnotthreatenAmericawhichitclearlydoesnotandthatNATOis,in
anycase,obsolete,ashehassaid.ItmakesperfectsensetojoinwithRussia
anditsalliestosurroundanddestroytheso-calledIslamicState.

Ifonelistenscarefully,Trumpseemshalfwaythere.Itwouldcutalotofknots,
maybeevenuntiethepolicygridlock.Perhapsthatiswhatheintends?
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/18/201611:34:33AM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Re:FW:Anti-realismfromtheinside

Yes,Donsentthistomewiththesameintromessageastoyouand.........Kirchick?!?

OnWed,May18,2016at11:59AM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

Youseethis?Itsprettydamngood.

From:DonaldJensen[mailto:donald.jensen8@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,May17,20167:12AM
To:LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>;DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>;MichaelWeiss
<macspaunday@gmail.com>;JamesKirchick<james.kirchick@gmail.com>
Subject:Antirealismfromtheinside

Givethekidacigar,thoughSimesprobablyhasalreadyfiredhisa$$.

http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/donald-trump-will-not-save-realism-from-itself/
From: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/22/201605:20:44AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:

Idon'tknowwhatheisreferringto,butthroughouthistimeinMoscowhestressedhewasnotaprofessionaldiplomat.

OnSun,May22,2016at4:53AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://mobile.twitter.com/McFaul/status/733343888933552130

SentfrommyiPad

OnMay21,2016,at10:56PM,eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>wrote:

PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatory
ApproachtotheWestandPrepareforWar
05/17/201601:07pmET|Updated4daysago

1.2K

RIANOVOSTI/REUTERS
AlastairCrooke Fmr.MI-6agentAuthor,
Resistance:TheEssenceofIslamic
Revolution BEIRUTSomethingsignificanthappenedinthelastfewdaysofApril,butit
seemstheonlypersonwhonoticedwasStephenCohen,aprofessoremeritus
ofRussianstudiesatNewYorkUniversityandPrincetonUniversity.

Inarecordedinterview,CohennotesthatasectionoftheRussianleadership
isshowingsignsofrestlessness,focusedonPresidentVladimirPutins
leadership.Wearenottalkingofstreetprotesters.Wearenottalkingcoups
againstPutinhispopularityremainsabove80percentandheisnotaboutto
bedisplaced.Butwearetalkingaboutseriouspressurebeingappliedtothe
presidenttocomedownfromthehighwirealongwhichhehaswarilytroduntil
now.

Putincarries,atoneendofhisbalancingpole,thevariouselitesmoreoriented
towardtheWestandtheWashingtonConsensusand,atthepolesother
end,thoseconcernedthatRussiafacesbotharealmilitarythreatfromthe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationandahybridgeo-financialwaraswell.Heis
beingpressedtocomedownonthesideofthelatter,andtoprythegripofthe
formerfromtheleversofeconomicpowerthattheystilltightlyhold.

putinmilitary

PutinmeetsRussiastopmilitarybrassintheKremlinonApril21.(MikhailKlimentyev/Sputnik,
KremlinPoolPhotoviaAP)

Inshort,theissuecomingtoaheadintheKremliniswhetherRussiais
sufficientlypreparedforfurtherWesterneffortstoensureitdoesnotimpedeor
rivalAmericanhegemony.CanRussiasustainageo-financialassault,ifone
weretobelaunched?AndissuchathreatrealormereWesternposturingfor
otherends?

WhatissoimportantisthatiftheseeventsaremisreadintheWest,whichis
alreadyprimedtoseeanyRussiandefensiveactasoffensiveandaggressive,
thegroundwillalreadyhavebeenlaidforescalation.Wealreadyhadthefirst
wartopushbackagainstNATOinGeorgia.Thesecondpushbackwaris
ongoinginUkraine.Whatmightbetheconsequencestoathird?

Putinisbeingpushedtowieldtheknifeandtocutdeeply.

Inmid-April,GeneralAlexanderBastrykin,theheadofRussiasInvestigative
Committee(asortofsuperattorneygeneral,asCohendescribesit),wrotethat
RussiaitsroleinSyrianotwithstandingismilitarilyillpreparedtofacea
newwareitherathomeorabroad,andthattheeconomyisinabadway,too.
Russia,furthermore,isequallyillpreparedtowithstandageo-financialwar.He
goesontosaythattheWestispreparingforwaragainstRussiaandthat
Russiasleadershipdoesnotappeartobeawareoforalerttothedangerthe
countryfaces.

BastrykindoesnotsaythatPutinistoblame,thoughthecontextmakesitclear
thatthisiswhathemeans.Butafewdayslater,Cohenexplains,the
articlesparkedfurtherdiscussionfromthosewhobothendorseBastrykinand
dopreciselymentionPutinbyname.Then,Cohennotes,aretiredRussian
generalenteredthefraytoconfirmthattheWestisindeedpreparingforwar
hepointedtoNATOdeploymentsintheBaltics,theBlackSeaandPoland,
amongotherplacesandunderlinesagaintheunpreparednessofthe
Russianmilitarytofacethisthreat.ThisisaheavyindictmentofPutin,Cohen
saysoftherevelationsfromthisanalysis.Itisnowoutintheopen.

assadrussia

SouvenirplatesdepictingSyriasPresidentBasharal-AssadandPutininDamascusonFeb.8.
(REUTERS/OmarSanadiki)

Whatisthisallabout?Forsometimetherehavebeenindicationsthatakey
factionwithintheKremlin,onethatverylooselymightbetermednationalist,
hasbecomedeeplydisenchantedwithPutinstolerationoftheWashington
ConsensusanditsadherentsattheRussiancentralbankandinotherpivotal
economicposts.Thenationalistswantthempurged,alongwithPrimeMinister
DmitryMedvedevsperceivedWestern-friendlygovernment.Putinmaybe
highlypopular,butMedvedevsgovernmentisnot.Thegovernmentseconomic
policyisbeingcriticized.Theopposingfactionwantstoseeanimmediate
mobilizationofthemilitaryandtheeconomyforwar,conventionalorhybrid.
ThisisnotaboutwantingPutinousteditisaboutpushinghimtowieldthe
knifeandtocutdeeply.

WhatdoesthisfactionwantapartfromRussiapreparingforwar?Theywanta
harderlineinUkraineandforPutintorejectU.S.SecretaryofStateJohn
KerryssnaresinSyria.Inshort,KerryisstilltryingtoforceAssadsremoval
andcontinuestopushforfurtherU.S.supportfortheopposition.TheAmerican
governmentisreluctantaswelltodisentanglemoderatesfromjihadis.The
viewisthatAmericaisinsincereintryingtocooperatewithRussiaona
settlementandmoreintentonentrappingPutininSyria.Perhapsthisisright,
asGarethPorterandElijahMagnierhaveoutlined.

TheObamaadministrationisactingtoweakenPutinandLavrovs
hand,andthereforestrengtheningthehandofthoseinRussia
callingforafullmobilizationforwar.

WhatthismeansatamorefundamentallevelisthatPutinisbeingaskedto
sidewiththenationalistsagainsttheinternationalistsalignedwiththe
WashingtonConsensus,andtopurgethemfrompower.Recall,however,that
PutincametopowerpreciselytotemperthispolaritywithinRussiansocietyby
risingaboveittohealandrebuildadiversesocietyrecoveringfromdeep
divisionsandcrises.Heisbeingaskedtorenouncethatforwhichhestands
because,heisbeingtold,RussiaisbeingthreatenedbyaWestthatis
preparingforwar.

Theprospectoftheseeminginevitabilityoffutureconflictishardlynewto
Putin,whohasspokenoftenonthistheme.Hehas,however,chosentoreact
byplacingtheemphasisongainingtimeforRussiatostrengthenitselfand
tryingtocornertheWestintosomesortofcooperationorpartnershipona
politicalsettlementinSyria,forexample,whichmighthavedeflectedthewar
dynamicintoamorepositivecourse.Putinhas,atthesametime,skillfully
steeredEuropeansawayfromNATOescalation.

kerryrussia

KerryandSergeyLavrovinMoscowonMarch24.(APPhoto/AndrewHarnik,Pool)

ButinbothoftheseobjectivestheObamaadministrationisactingtoweaken
PutinandLavrovshand,andthereforestrengtheningthehandofthosein
Russiacallingforafullmobilizationforwar.Itisnotcoincidentalthat
Bastrykinsalarm-raisingarticlecamenow,astheSyriaceasefireisbeing
deliberatelyinfringedandbroken.IsthisproperlyunderstoodintheWhite
House?Ifso,mustweconcludethatescalationagainstRussiaisdesired?As
Cohennotes,theWashingtonPost[initseditorialpages]tellsusregularlythat
never,never,never...underanycircumstances,canthecriminalPutinbea
strategicpartneroftheUnitedStates.
Isthediethencast?IsPutinboundtofail?Isconflictinevitable?Ostensibly,it
mayseemso.Thestageiscertainlybeingset.Ihavewrittenbeforeon,the
pivotalreadyunderwayfromwithintheU.S.defenseandintelligencearmsof
ObamasownadministrationtowardwhatisoftenreferredtoastheWolfowitz
doctrine,asetofpoliciesdevelopedbytheU.S.inthe1990sandearly2000s.
Theauthorofoneofthosepolicies,the1992U.S.DefensePlanning
Guidance,wrotethattheDPGinessencesoughtto:

...precludetheemergenceofbipolarity,anotherglobalrivalryliketheCold
War,ormultipolarity,aworldofmanygreatpowers,asexistedbeforethe
twoworldwars.Todoso,thekeywastopreventahostilepowerfrom
dominatingacriticalregion,definedashavingtheresources,industrial
capabilitiesandpopulationthat,ifcontrolledbyahostilepower,would
poseaglobalchallenge.

InaninterviewwithVox,U.S.SecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterwasclear
thatthiswasbroadlythebearingbywhichthePentagonwasbeingdirectedto
sail.Thenagain,thereistheratherobviousfactthat,insteadofthemuch-
toutedU.S.militarypivotostensiblybeingtoAsia,theactualNATOpivotis
beingdirectedtoCentralEuropetoRussiasborders.AndNATOisplainly
pushingtheenvelopeashardasitdares,upandagainstRussiasborders.

Thenthereistherhetoric:Russianaggression.Russianambitionstorecover
theformerSovietEmpire.RussianattemptstodivideanddestroyEurope.And
soon.

Isconflictinevitable?

Why?ItmaybethatNATOsimplypresumestheseenvelope-pushingexercises
willneveractuallycometowar,thatRussiasomehowwillbackoff.Andthat
continuouslypokingthebearwillserveAmericasinterestinkeepingEurope
togetherandNATOcohesive,itssanctionsinplace,dividedfromRussia.
NATOisduetomeetinWarsawinearlyJuly.Perhaps,then,theWestern
languageaboutRussiasaggressionislittlemorethanAmericaheadingoff
anyEuropeanrevoltonsanctionsbystirringupapseudo-threatfromRussia
andthattheRussiansaremisreadingAmericantrueintentions,whichdonotgo
beyondthis.Ordothey?

TheextraordinarybitternessandemotionaloutragewithwhichtheAmerican
establishmenthasreactedtoDonaldTrumpsprobablenominationasa
presidentialcandidatesuggeststhattheU.S.establishmentisfarfromhaving
givenupontheWolfowitzdoctrine.SohasPutinsstrategyofco-opting
AmericaintheMiddleEastbeenthefailurethattheBastrykinfactionimplies?
Inotherwords,isitthecasethatthepolicyofgainingcooperationhasfailed
andthatPutinmustnowmovebeyondit,becauseAmericaisnotaboutto
cooperateandis,instead,continuingtheprocessofcorneringRussia?

russiasyria

RussianarmyofficerstrainSyrianarmysoldiersinPalmyraonMay5.(VASILY
MAXIMOV/AFP/GettyImages)

AstheTexasTribunereportedonMay4,Forthefirsttimesincehisown
presidency,GeorgeH.W.BushisplanningtostaysilentintheracefortheOval
OfficeandtheyoungerformerpresidentBushplanstostaysilentaswell.

TogetasenseofthewarwithintheRepublicanParty(andtheDemocratsare
nolessconflicted),readthisreactiontothatstorybythetwo-timeRepublican
presidentialcandidatePatBuchanan.Heresasmallselection:

TrumpstriumphisasweepingrepudiationofBushRepublicanismbythe
samepartythatnominatedthem[theBushs]fourtimesforthepresidency.
Notonlywassonandbrother,Jeb,humiliatedandchasedoutoftherace
early,butTrumpwonhisnominationbydenouncingasrottentothecore
theprimaryfruitsofsignatureBushpolicies...Thatisasavageindictment
oftheBushlegacy.AndaRepublicanelectorate,inthelargestturnoutin
primaryhistory,nodded,Amentothat,brother!

Buchanancontinuesinanotherpiece:Thehubrishereastonishes.A
RepublicanestablishmentthathasbeenbeatenasbadlyasCarthageinthe
ThirdPunicWarisnowmakingdemandsonScipioAfricanusandthevictorious
RomansareferencetoPaulRyansattemptstomakeTrumpadhereto
BushRepublicanism.Thisisdifficulttoabsorb.

Buthere,inthiscrisis,isanopportunity.Americacouldbeheadinginto
recession,corporateprofitsarefalling,hugeswathsofdebtarelooking
suspect,globaltradeissinkingandU.S.policytoolsforcontrollingtheglobal
financialsystemhavelosttheircredibility.Andtherearenoeasysolutionsto
theglobaloverhangofincreasinglyputriddebt.

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannational
securityinterestspassdirectlythroughRussia,whichtheyclearly
do.
ButaPresidentTrumpwerethattohappencanlayblameforanyperfect
economicstormontheestablishment.Americaisallknottedupatpresent,as
thepresidentialnominationmeleemadeclear.Someknotswilltaketimeto
undo,butsomecouldbeundonerelativelyeasily,anditseemsthatTrumphas
somesenseofthis.Itcouldstartwithadramaticdiplomaticinitiative.

Historically,mostradicalprojectsofreformhavestartedinthisway:overturna
pieceofconventionalwisdomandunlocktheentirepolicygridlockthe
momentumgainedwillallowareformertosteamrolleventhehardest
resistanceinthiscase,WallStreetandthefinancialoligarchyintomaking
reforms.

trumpputin

AmuralinVilnius,Lithuania,depictingTrumpandPutinonMay13.(PETRASMALUKAS/AFP/Getty
Images)

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannationalsecurity
interestspassdirectlythroughRussiawhichtheyclearlydothatRussia
doesnotthreatenAmericawhichitclearlydoesnotandthatNATOis,in
anycase,obsolete,ashehassaid.ItmakesperfectsensetojoinwithRussia
anditsalliestosurroundanddestroytheso-calledIslamicState.

Ifonelistenscarefully,Trumpseemshalfwaythere.Itwouldcutalotofknots,
maybeevenuntiethepolicygridlock.Perhapsthatiswhatheintends?
From: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/21/201607:56:37PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>

PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatory
ApproachtotheWestandPrepareforWar
05/17/201601:07pmET|Updated4daysago

1.2K

AlastairCrooke Fmr.MI-6agentAuthor,
Resistance:TheEssenceofIslamic
Revolution

RIANOVOSTI/REUTERS

BEIRUTSomethingsignificanthappenedinthelastfewdaysofApril,butit
seemstheonlypersonwhonoticedwasStephenCohen,aprofessoremeritus
ofRussianstudiesatNewYorkUniversityandPrincetonUniversity.

Inarecordedinterview,CohennotesthatasectionoftheRussianleadership
isshowingsignsofrestlessness,focusedonPresidentVladimirPutins
leadership.Wearenottalkingofstreetprotesters.Wearenottalkingcoups
againstPutinhispopularityremainsabove80percentandheisnotaboutto
bedisplaced.Butwearetalkingaboutseriouspressurebeingappliedtothe
presidenttocomedownfromthehighwirealongwhichhehaswarilytroduntil
now.

Putincarries,atoneendofhisbalancingpole,thevariouselitesmoreoriented
towardtheWestandtheWashingtonConsensusand,atthepolesother
end,thoseconcernedthatRussiafacesbotharealmilitarythreatfromthe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationandahybridgeo-financialwaraswell.Heis
beingpressedtocomedownonthesideofthelatter,andtoprythegripofthe
formerfromtheleversofeconomicpowerthattheystilltightlyhold.
PutinmeetsRussiastopmilitarybrassintheKremlinonApril21.(MikhailKlimentyev/Sputnik,
KremlinPoolPhotoviaAP)

Inshort,theissuecomingtoaheadintheKremliniswhetherRussiais
sufficientlypreparedforfurtherWesterneffortstoensureitdoesnotimpedeor
rivalAmericanhegemony.CanRussiasustainageo-financialassault,ifone
weretobelaunched?AndissuchathreatrealormereWesternposturingfor
otherends?

WhatissoimportantisthatiftheseeventsaremisreadintheWest,whichis
alreadyprimedtoseeanyRussiandefensiveactasoffensiveandaggressive,
thegroundwillalreadyhavebeenlaidforescalation.Wealreadyhadthefirst
wartopushbackagainstNATOinGeorgia.Thesecondpushbackwaris
ongoinginUkraine.Whatmightbetheconsequencestoathird?

Putinisbeingpushedtowieldtheknifeandtocutdeeply.

Inmid-April,GeneralAlexanderBastrykin,theheadofRussiasInvestigative
Committee(asortofsuperattorneygeneral,asCohendescribesit),wrotethat
RussiaitsroleinSyrianotwithstandingismilitarilyillpreparedtofacea
newwareitherathomeorabroad,andthattheeconomyisinabadway,too.
Russia,furthermore,isequallyillpreparedtowithstandageo-financialwar.He
goesontosaythattheWestispreparingforwaragainstRussiaandthat
Russiasleadershipdoesnotappeartobeawareoforalerttothedangerthe
countryfaces.

BastrykindoesnotsaythatPutinistoblame,thoughthecontextmakesitclear
thatthisiswhathemeans.Butafewdayslater,Cohenexplains,the
articlesparkedfurtherdiscussionfromthosewhobothendorseBastrykinand
dopreciselymentionPutinbyname.Then,Cohennotes,aretiredRussian
generalenteredthefraytoconfirmthattheWestisindeedpreparingforwar
hepointedtoNATOdeploymentsintheBaltics,theBlackSeaandPoland,
amongotherplacesandunderlinesagaintheunpreparednessofthe
Russianmilitarytofacethisthreat.ThisisaheavyindictmentofPutin,Cohen
saysoftherevelationsfromthisanalysis.Itisnowoutintheopen.

SouvenirplatesdepictingSyriasPresidentBasharal-AssadandPutininDamascusonFeb.8.
(REUTERS/OmarSanadiki)

Whatisthisallabout?Forsometimetherehavebeenindicationsthatakey
factionwithintheKremlin,onethatverylooselymightbetermednationalist,
hasbecomedeeplydisenchantedwithPutinstolerationoftheWashington
ConsensusanditsadherentsattheRussiancentralbankandinotherpivotal
economicposts.Thenationalistswantthempurged,alongwithPrimeMinister
DmitryMedvedevsperceivedWestern-friendlygovernment.Putinmaybe
highlypopular,butMedvedevsgovernmentisnot.Thegovernmentseconomic
policyisbeingcriticized.Theopposingfactionwantstoseeanimmediate
mobilizationofthemilitaryandtheeconomyforwar,conventionalorhybrid.
ThisisnotaboutwantingPutinousteditisaboutpushinghimtowieldthe
knifeandtocutdeeply.

WhatdoesthisfactionwantapartfromRussiapreparingforwar?Theywanta
harderlineinUkraineandforPutintorejectU.S.SecretaryofStateJohn
KerryssnaresinSyria.Inshort,KerryisstilltryingtoforceAssadsremoval
andcontinuestopushforfurtherU.S.supportfortheopposition.TheAmerican
governmentisreluctantaswelltodisentanglemoderatesfromjihadis.The
viewisthatAmericaisinsincereintryingtocooperatewithRussiaona
settlementandmoreintentonentrappingPutininSyria.Perhapsthisisright,
asGarethPorterandElijahMagnierhaveoutlined.

TheObamaadministrationisactingtoweakenPutinandLavrovs
hand,andthereforestrengtheningthehandofthoseinRussia
callingforafullmobilizationforwar.

WhatthismeansatamorefundamentallevelisthatPutinisbeingaskedto
sidewiththenationalistsagainsttheinternationalistsalignedwiththe
WashingtonConsensus,andtopurgethemfrompower.Recall,however,that
PutincametopowerpreciselytotemperthispolaritywithinRussiansocietyby
risingaboveittohealandrebuildadiversesocietyrecoveringfromdeep
divisionsandcrises.Heisbeingaskedtorenouncethatforwhichhestands
because,heisbeingtold,RussiaisbeingthreatenedbyaWestthatis
preparingforwar.

Theprospectoftheseeminginevitabilityoffutureconflictishardlynewto
Putin,whohasspokenoftenonthistheme.Hehas,however,chosentoreact
byplacingtheemphasisongainingtimeforRussiatostrengthenitselfand
tryingtocornertheWestintosomesortofcooperationorpartnershipona
politicalsettlementinSyria,forexample,whichmighthavedeflectedthewar
dynamicintoamorepositivecourse.Putinhas,atthesametime,skillfully
steeredEuropeansawayfromNATOescalation.

KerryandSergeyLavrovinMoscowonMarch24.(APPhoto/AndrewHarnik,Pool)

ButinbothoftheseobjectivestheObamaadministrationisactingtoweaken
PutinandLavrovshand,andthereforestrengtheningthehandofthosein
Russiacallingforafullmobilizationforwar.Itisnotcoincidentalthat
Bastrykinsalarm-raisingarticlecamenow,astheSyriaceasefireisbeing
deliberatelyinfringedandbroken.IsthisproperlyunderstoodintheWhite
House?Ifso,mustweconcludethatescalationagainstRussiaisdesired?As
Cohennotes,theWashingtonPost[initseditorialpages]tellsusregularlythat
never,never,never...underanycircumstances,canthecriminalPutinbea
strategicpartneroftheUnitedStates.

Isthediethencast?IsPutinboundtofail?Isconflictinevitable?Ostensibly,it
mayseemso.Thestageiscertainlybeingset.Ihavewrittenbeforeon,the
pivotalreadyunderwayfromwithintheU.S.defenseandintelligencearmsof
ObamasownadministrationtowardwhatisoftenreferredtoastheWolfowitz
doctrine,asetofpoliciesdevelopedbytheU.S.inthe1990sandearly2000s.
Theauthorofoneofthosepolicies,the1992U.S.DefensePlanning
Guidance,wrotethattheDPGinessencesoughtto:

...precludetheemergenceofbipolarity,anotherglobalrivalryliketheCold
War,ormultipolarity,aworldofmanygreatpowers,asexistedbeforethe
twoworldwars.Todoso,thekeywastopreventahostilepowerfrom
dominatingacriticalregion,definedashavingtheresources,industrial
capabilitiesandpopulationthat,ifcontrolledbyahostilepower,would
poseaglobalchallenge.

InaninterviewwithVox,U.S.SecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterwasclear
thatthiswasbroadlythebearingbywhichthePentagonwasbeingdirectedto
sail.Thenagain,thereistheratherobviousfactthat,insteadofthemuch-
toutedU.S.militarypivotostensiblybeingtoAsia,theactualNATOpivotis
beingdirectedtoCentralEuropetoRussiasborders.AndNATOisplainly
pushingtheenvelopeashardasitdares,upandagainstRussiasborders.

Thenthereistherhetoric:Russianaggression.Russianambitionstorecover
theformerSovietEmpire.RussianattemptstodivideanddestroyEurope.And
soon.

Isconflictinevitable?

Why?ItmaybethatNATOsimplypresumestheseenvelope-pushingexercises
willneveractuallycometowar,thatRussiasomehowwillbackoff.Andthat
continuouslypokingthebearwillserveAmericasinterestinkeepingEurope
togetherandNATOcohesive,itssanctionsinplace,dividedfromRussia.
NATOisduetomeetinWarsawinearlyJuly.Perhaps,then,theWestern
languageaboutRussiasaggressionislittlemorethanAmericaheadingoff
anyEuropeanrevoltonsanctionsbystirringupapseudo-threatfromRussia
andthattheRussiansaremisreadingAmericantrueintentions,whichdonotgo
beyondthis.Ordothey?

TheextraordinarybitternessandemotionaloutragewithwhichtheAmerican
establishmenthasreactedtoDonaldTrumpsprobablenominationasa
presidentialcandidatesuggeststhattheU.S.establishmentisfarfromhaving
givenupontheWolfowitzdoctrine.SohasPutinsstrategyofco-opting
AmericaintheMiddleEastbeenthefailurethattheBastrykinfactionimplies?
Inotherwords,isitthecasethatthepolicyofgainingcooperationhasfailed
andthatPutinmustnowmovebeyondit,becauseAmericaisnotaboutto
cooperateandis,instead,continuingtheprocessofcorneringRussia?
RussianarmyofficerstrainSyrianarmysoldiersinPalmyraonMay5.(VASILY
MAXIMOV/AFP/GettyImages)

AstheTexasTribunereportedonMay4,Forthefirsttimesincehisown
presidency,GeorgeH.W.BushisplanningtostaysilentintheracefortheOval
OfficeandtheyoungerformerpresidentBushplanstostaysilentaswell.

TogetasenseofthewarwithintheRepublicanParty(andtheDemocratsare
nolessconflicted),readthisreactiontothatstorybythetwo-timeRepublican
presidentialcandidatePatBuchanan.Heresasmallselection:

TrumpstriumphisasweepingrepudiationofBushRepublicanismbythe
samepartythatnominatedthem[theBushs]fourtimesforthepresidency.
Notonlywassonandbrother,Jeb,humiliatedandchasedoutoftherace
early,butTrumpwonhisnominationbydenouncingasrottentothecore
theprimaryfruitsofsignatureBushpolicies...Thatisasavageindictment
oftheBushlegacy.AndaRepublicanelectorate,inthelargestturnoutin
primaryhistory,nodded,Amentothat,brother!

Buchanancontinuesinanotherpiece:Thehubrishereastonishes.A
RepublicanestablishmentthathasbeenbeatenasbadlyasCarthageinthe
ThirdPunicWarisnowmakingdemandsonScipioAfricanusandthevictorious
RomansareferencetoPaulRyansattemptstomakeTrumpadhereto
BushRepublicanism.Thisisdifficulttoabsorb.

Buthere,inthiscrisis,isanopportunity.Americacouldbeheadinginto
recession,corporateprofitsarefalling,hugeswathsofdebtarelooking
suspect,globaltradeissinkingandU.S.policytoolsforcontrollingtheglobal
financialsystemhavelosttheircredibility.Andtherearenoeasysolutionsto
theglobaloverhangofincreasinglyputriddebt.

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannational
securityinterestspassdirectlythroughRussia,whichtheyclearly
do.
ButaPresidentTrumpwerethattohappencanlayblameforanyperfect
economicstormontheestablishment.Americaisallknottedupatpresent,as
thepresidentialnominationmeleemadeclear.Someknotswilltaketimeto
undo,butsomecouldbeundonerelativelyeasily,anditseemsthatTrumphas
somesenseofthis.Itcouldstartwithadramaticdiplomaticinitiative.

Historically,mostradicalprojectsofreformhavestartedinthisway:overturna
pieceofconventionalwisdomandunlocktheentirepolicygridlockthe
momentumgainedwillallowareformertosteamrolleventhehardest
resistanceinthiscase,WallStreetandthefinancialoligarchyintomaking
reforms.

AmuralinVilnius,Lithuania,depictingTrumpandPutinonMay13.(PETRASMALUKAS/AFP/Getty
Images)

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannationalsecurity
interestspassdirectlythroughRussiawhichtheyclearlydothatRussia
doesnotthreatenAmericawhichitclearlydoesnotandthatNATOis,in
anycase,obsolete,ashehassaid.ItmakesperfectsensetojoinwithRussia
anditsalliestosurroundanddestroytheso-calledIslamicState.

Ifonelistenscarefully,Trumpseemshalfwaythere.Itwouldcutalotofknots,
maybeevenuntiethepolicygridlock.Perhapsthatiswhatheintends?
From: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/21/201607:56:37PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>

PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatory
ApproachtotheWestandPrepareforWar
05/17/201601:07pmET|Updated4daysago

1.2K

AlastairCrooke Fmr.MI-6agentAuthor,
Resistance:TheEssenceofIslamic
Revolution

RIANOVOSTI/REUTERS

BEIRUTSomethingsignificanthappenedinthelastfewdaysofApril,butit
seemstheonlypersonwhonoticedwasStephenCohen,aprofessoremeritus
ofRussianstudiesatNewYorkUniversityandPrincetonUniversity.

Inarecordedinterview,CohennotesthatasectionoftheRussianleadership
isshowingsignsofrestlessness,focusedonPresidentVladimirPutins
leadership.Wearenottalkingofstreetprotesters.Wearenottalkingcoups
againstPutinhispopularityremainsabove80percentandheisnotaboutto
bedisplaced.Butwearetalkingaboutseriouspressurebeingappliedtothe
presidenttocomedownfromthehighwirealongwhichhehaswarilytroduntil
now.

Putincarries,atoneendofhisbalancingpole,thevariouselitesmoreoriented
towardtheWestandtheWashingtonConsensusand,atthepolesother
end,thoseconcernedthatRussiafacesbotharealmilitarythreatfromthe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationandahybridgeo-financialwaraswell.Heis
beingpressedtocomedownonthesideofthelatter,andtoprythegripofthe
formerfromtheleversofeconomicpowerthattheystilltightlyhold.
PutinmeetsRussiastopmilitarybrassintheKremlinonApril21.(MikhailKlimentyev/Sputnik,
KremlinPoolPhotoviaAP)

Inshort,theissuecomingtoaheadintheKremliniswhetherRussiais
sufficientlypreparedforfurtherWesterneffortstoensureitdoesnotimpedeor
rivalAmericanhegemony.CanRussiasustainageo-financialassault,ifone
weretobelaunched?AndissuchathreatrealormereWesternposturingfor
otherends?

WhatissoimportantisthatiftheseeventsaremisreadintheWest,whichis
alreadyprimedtoseeanyRussiandefensiveactasoffensiveandaggressive,
thegroundwillalreadyhavebeenlaidforescalation.Wealreadyhadthefirst
wartopushbackagainstNATOinGeorgia.Thesecondpushbackwaris
ongoinginUkraine.Whatmightbetheconsequencestoathird?

Putinisbeingpushedtowieldtheknifeandtocutdeeply.

Inmid-April,GeneralAlexanderBastrykin,theheadofRussiasInvestigative
Committee(asortofsuperattorneygeneral,asCohendescribesit),wrotethat
RussiaitsroleinSyrianotwithstandingismilitarilyillpreparedtofacea
newwareitherathomeorabroad,andthattheeconomyisinabadway,too.
Russia,furthermore,isequallyillpreparedtowithstandageo-financialwar.He
goesontosaythattheWestispreparingforwaragainstRussiaandthat
Russiasleadershipdoesnotappeartobeawareoforalerttothedangerthe
countryfaces.

BastrykindoesnotsaythatPutinistoblame,thoughthecontextmakesitclear
thatthisiswhathemeans.Butafewdayslater,Cohenexplains,the
articlesparkedfurtherdiscussionfromthosewhobothendorseBastrykinand
dopreciselymentionPutinbyname.Then,Cohennotes,aretiredRussian
generalenteredthefraytoconfirmthattheWestisindeedpreparingforwar
hepointedtoNATOdeploymentsintheBaltics,theBlackSeaandPoland,
amongotherplacesandunderlinesagaintheunpreparednessofthe
Russianmilitarytofacethisthreat.ThisisaheavyindictmentofPutin,Cohen
saysoftherevelationsfromthisanalysis.Itisnowoutintheopen.

SouvenirplatesdepictingSyriasPresidentBasharal-AssadandPutininDamascusonFeb.8.
(REUTERS/OmarSanadiki)

Whatisthisallabout?Forsometimetherehavebeenindicationsthatakey
factionwithintheKremlin,onethatverylooselymightbetermednationalist,
hasbecomedeeplydisenchantedwithPutinstolerationoftheWashington
ConsensusanditsadherentsattheRussiancentralbankandinotherpivotal
economicposts.Thenationalistswantthempurged,alongwithPrimeMinister
DmitryMedvedevsperceivedWestern-friendlygovernment.Putinmaybe
highlypopular,butMedvedevsgovernmentisnot.Thegovernmentseconomic
policyisbeingcriticized.Theopposingfactionwantstoseeanimmediate
mobilizationofthemilitaryandtheeconomyforwar,conventionalorhybrid.
ThisisnotaboutwantingPutinousteditisaboutpushinghimtowieldthe
knifeandtocutdeeply.

WhatdoesthisfactionwantapartfromRussiapreparingforwar?Theywanta
harderlineinUkraineandforPutintorejectU.S.SecretaryofStateJohn
KerryssnaresinSyria.Inshort,KerryisstilltryingtoforceAssadsremoval
andcontinuestopushforfurtherU.S.supportfortheopposition.TheAmerican
governmentisreluctantaswelltodisentanglemoderatesfromjihadis.The
viewisthatAmericaisinsincereintryingtocooperatewithRussiaona
settlementandmoreintentonentrappingPutininSyria.Perhapsthisisright,
asGarethPorterandElijahMagnierhaveoutlined.

TheObamaadministrationisactingtoweakenPutinandLavrovs
hand,andthereforestrengtheningthehandofthoseinRussia
callingforafullmobilizationforwar.

WhatthismeansatamorefundamentallevelisthatPutinisbeingaskedto
sidewiththenationalistsagainsttheinternationalistsalignedwiththe
WashingtonConsensus,andtopurgethemfrompower.Recall,however,that
PutincametopowerpreciselytotemperthispolaritywithinRussiansocietyby
risingaboveittohealandrebuildadiversesocietyrecoveringfromdeep
divisionsandcrises.Heisbeingaskedtorenouncethatforwhichhestands
because,heisbeingtold,RussiaisbeingthreatenedbyaWestthatis
preparingforwar.

Theprospectoftheseeminginevitabilityoffutureconflictishardlynewto
Putin,whohasspokenoftenonthistheme.Hehas,however,chosentoreact
byplacingtheemphasisongainingtimeforRussiatostrengthenitselfand
tryingtocornertheWestintosomesortofcooperationorpartnershipona
politicalsettlementinSyria,forexample,whichmighthavedeflectedthewar
dynamicintoamorepositivecourse.Putinhas,atthesametime,skillfully
steeredEuropeansawayfromNATOescalation.

KerryandSergeyLavrovinMoscowonMarch24.(APPhoto/AndrewHarnik,Pool)

ButinbothoftheseobjectivestheObamaadministrationisactingtoweaken
PutinandLavrovshand,andthereforestrengtheningthehandofthosein
Russiacallingforafullmobilizationforwar.Itisnotcoincidentalthat
Bastrykinsalarm-raisingarticlecamenow,astheSyriaceasefireisbeing
deliberatelyinfringedandbroken.IsthisproperlyunderstoodintheWhite
House?Ifso,mustweconcludethatescalationagainstRussiaisdesired?As
Cohennotes,theWashingtonPost[initseditorialpages]tellsusregularlythat
never,never,never...underanycircumstances,canthecriminalPutinbea
strategicpartneroftheUnitedStates.

Isthediethencast?IsPutinboundtofail?Isconflictinevitable?Ostensibly,it
mayseemso.Thestageiscertainlybeingset.Ihavewrittenbeforeon,the
pivotalreadyunderwayfromwithintheU.S.defenseandintelligencearmsof
ObamasownadministrationtowardwhatisoftenreferredtoastheWolfowitz
doctrine,asetofpoliciesdevelopedbytheU.S.inthe1990sandearly2000s.
Theauthorofoneofthosepolicies,the1992U.S.DefensePlanning
Guidance,wrotethattheDPGinessencesoughtto:

...precludetheemergenceofbipolarity,anotherglobalrivalryliketheCold
War,ormultipolarity,aworldofmanygreatpowers,asexistedbeforethe
twoworldwars.Todoso,thekeywastopreventahostilepowerfrom
dominatingacriticalregion,definedashavingtheresources,industrial
capabilitiesandpopulationthat,ifcontrolledbyahostilepower,would
poseaglobalchallenge.

InaninterviewwithVox,U.S.SecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterwasclear
thatthiswasbroadlythebearingbywhichthePentagonwasbeingdirectedto
sail.Thenagain,thereistheratherobviousfactthat,insteadofthemuch-
toutedU.S.militarypivotostensiblybeingtoAsia,theactualNATOpivotis
beingdirectedtoCentralEuropetoRussiasborders.AndNATOisplainly
pushingtheenvelopeashardasitdares,upandagainstRussiasborders.

Thenthereistherhetoric:Russianaggression.Russianambitionstorecover
theformerSovietEmpire.RussianattemptstodivideanddestroyEurope.And
soon.

Isconflictinevitable?

Why?ItmaybethatNATOsimplypresumestheseenvelope-pushingexercises
willneveractuallycometowar,thatRussiasomehowwillbackoff.Andthat
continuouslypokingthebearwillserveAmericasinterestinkeepingEurope
togetherandNATOcohesive,itssanctionsinplace,dividedfromRussia.
NATOisduetomeetinWarsawinearlyJuly.Perhaps,then,theWestern
languageaboutRussiasaggressionislittlemorethanAmericaheadingoff
anyEuropeanrevoltonsanctionsbystirringupapseudo-threatfromRussia
andthattheRussiansaremisreadingAmericantrueintentions,whichdonotgo
beyondthis.Ordothey?

TheextraordinarybitternessandemotionaloutragewithwhichtheAmerican
establishmenthasreactedtoDonaldTrumpsprobablenominationasa
presidentialcandidatesuggeststhattheU.S.establishmentisfarfromhaving
givenupontheWolfowitzdoctrine.SohasPutinsstrategyofco-opting
AmericaintheMiddleEastbeenthefailurethattheBastrykinfactionimplies?
Inotherwords,isitthecasethatthepolicyofgainingcooperationhasfailed
andthatPutinmustnowmovebeyondit,becauseAmericaisnotaboutto
cooperateandis,instead,continuingtheprocessofcorneringRussia?
RussianarmyofficerstrainSyrianarmysoldiersinPalmyraonMay5.(VASILY
MAXIMOV/AFP/GettyImages)

AstheTexasTribunereportedonMay4,Forthefirsttimesincehisown
presidency,GeorgeH.W.BushisplanningtostaysilentintheracefortheOval
OfficeandtheyoungerformerpresidentBushplanstostaysilentaswell.

TogetasenseofthewarwithintheRepublicanParty(andtheDemocratsare
nolessconflicted),readthisreactiontothatstorybythetwo-timeRepublican
presidentialcandidatePatBuchanan.Heresasmallselection:

TrumpstriumphisasweepingrepudiationofBushRepublicanismbythe
samepartythatnominatedthem[theBushs]fourtimesforthepresidency.
Notonlywassonandbrother,Jeb,humiliatedandchasedoutoftherace
early,butTrumpwonhisnominationbydenouncingasrottentothecore
theprimaryfruitsofsignatureBushpolicies...Thatisasavageindictment
oftheBushlegacy.AndaRepublicanelectorate,inthelargestturnoutin
primaryhistory,nodded,Amentothat,brother!

Buchanancontinuesinanotherpiece:Thehubrishereastonishes.A
RepublicanestablishmentthathasbeenbeatenasbadlyasCarthageinthe
ThirdPunicWarisnowmakingdemandsonScipioAfricanusandthevictorious
RomansareferencetoPaulRyansattemptstomakeTrumpadhereto
BushRepublicanism.Thisisdifficulttoabsorb.

Buthere,inthiscrisis,isanopportunity.Americacouldbeheadinginto
recession,corporateprofitsarefalling,hugeswathsofdebtarelooking
suspect,globaltradeissinkingandU.S.policytoolsforcontrollingtheglobal
financialsystemhavelosttheircredibility.Andtherearenoeasysolutionsto
theglobaloverhangofincreasinglyputriddebt.

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannational
securityinterestspassdirectlythroughRussia,whichtheyclearly
do.
ButaPresidentTrumpwerethattohappencanlayblameforanyperfect
economicstormontheestablishment.Americaisallknottedupatpresent,as
thepresidentialnominationmeleemadeclear.Someknotswilltaketimeto
undo,butsomecouldbeundonerelativelyeasily,anditseemsthatTrumphas
somesenseofthis.Itcouldstartwithadramaticdiplomaticinitiative.

Historically,mostradicalprojectsofreformhavestartedinthisway:overturna
pieceofconventionalwisdomandunlocktheentirepolicygridlockthe
momentumgainedwillallowareformertosteamrolleventhehardest
resistanceinthiscase,WallStreetandthefinancialoligarchyintomaking
reforms.

AmuralinVilnius,Lithuania,depictingTrumpandPutinonMay13.(PETRASMALUKAS/AFP/Getty
Images)

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannationalsecurity
interestspassdirectlythroughRussiawhichtheyclearlydothatRussia
doesnotthreatenAmericawhichitclearlydoesnotandthatNATOis,in
anycase,obsolete,ashehassaid.ItmakesperfectsensetojoinwithRussia
anditsalliestosurroundanddestroytheso-calledIslamicState.

Ifonelistenscarefully,Trumpseemshalfwaythere.Itwouldcutalotofknots,
maybeevenuntiethepolicygridlock.Perhapsthatiswhatheintends?
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 05/18/201611:35:41AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:FW:Anti-realismfromtheinside

Andwhynot?

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Wednesday,May18,20162:35PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Re:FW:Antirealismfromtheinside

Yes,Donsentthistomewiththesameintromessageastoyouand.........Kirchick?!?

OnWed,May18,2016at11:59AM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

Youseethis?Itsprettydamngood.

From:DonaldJensen[mailto:donald.jensen8@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,May17,20167:12AM
To:LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>;DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>;MichaelWeiss
<macspaunday@gmail.com>;JamesKirchick<james.kirchick@gmail.com>
Subject:Antirealismfromtheinside

Givethekidacigar,thoughSimesprobablyhasalreadyfiredhisa$$.

http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/donald-trump-will-not-save-realism-from-itself/

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/17/201608:57:27AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:ElectionsPutin-style:"Russianoppositionactivists[NAVALNYandhissupporters]beateninairportassault[insouthernRussia],"
Subject:
washingtonpost.com,5/17

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,May17,20168:57AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:ElectionsPutin-style:"Russianoppositionactivists[NAVALNYandhissupporters]beateninairportassault[insouthern
Russia],"washingtonpost.com,5/17

And:RussianoppositionleaderNavalny,supportersattackedbyCOSSACKS,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27740404.html
LinktoVIDEOoftheassault

And:ThecooperationoftheFSBandORGANIZEDCRIMEGROUPS,32pageanalyticalreportby
SWISSCounterintelligence.PostedbyOtkrytayaRossiya,repostedbycompromat.ru:
httP://www.compromat.ru/page_36903.htm

And:[Kadyrovs]PolicecordonoffvillageofChechenmanwhocomplainedtoPUTN,
themoscowtimes.com,5/17

And:KremlindeniesreportsonpossibleTAXRISEin2018,themoscowtimes.com,5/17

And:USdeputysecretaryofstateZIFF:Russiacancertainlymaketheviolenceceaseifitsochooses
inUKRAINE,kyvpost.com,5/16

And:Whenthemoneyrunsout:Russianofficialsarediscussingvariantsoffundingthebudgetwith
newTAXES,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/73110.html?print=1

And:DavidAXE,RussiasnewMISSILEmeanstheNUCLEARarmsraceisbackon,thedailybeast.com,
5/17

And:PUTINLIKE?Notus,sayPOLANDandHUNGARYinresponsetoBillClinton,politic.eu,5/17

PolandandHungryreturnedfireTuesdayafterformerUSPresidentBillClintonaccusedthetwo
countriesofthinkingthatdemocracyistoomuchtroubleandwantingPutinlikeleadership.
ClintonwasmakingabroaderpointaboutthedangerposedbypopulistslikeDonaldTRUMP

And:HowRussiancitizensareconstantlybeingWATCHEDbytheregimeonreportbyInternational
HumanRightsorganizationAgora:http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27738502.html

From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/22/201607:51:14AM
To: sburant@verizon.net
Subject: WeakendatBernies-TheNewYorkTimes

WeakendatBernies

BernieSanderssupportersduringarallyattheSantaClaraCountyFairgroundsinSanJose,Calif.,onWednesday.JimWilson/TheNewYorkTimes

WASHINGTONHILLARYCLINTONistheDemocraticnominee.

Really.

Justaskher.

Sheshouldhavebeenabletofinallysavorshatteringthathighest,hardestglassceilingtheoneshegloriedinputting
18millioncracksinlasttimearoundwhensheattendsherconventioninPhiladelphiainJuly.

Instead,sheisreducedtostompingherfeetonCNN,assertingherdominanceinacontestthathasleftherlooking
anythingbutdominant.Oncemoreattemptingtoshakeofftheoldsocialistdudehammeringherwithasickle,Clinton
insistedtoChrisCuomoonThursday:Iwillbethenomineeformyparty,Chris.Thatisalreadydone,ineffect.Thereis
nowaythatIwontbe.

ItsavexingtimefortheClintons.AsBilltoldacrowdinFargo,N.D.,onFriday,itsbeenaninterestingyear:Thats
themostneutralwordIcanthinkof.

Afterall,whyshouldBernieSandersgettobetheDemocraticnomineewhenheisntevenaDemocrat?Andhowis
DonaldTrumpgoingtobetheRepublicannomineewhenheconsidersbeingaRepublicanmerelyastartingbid?
ItmustbehardforHillarytolookatallthepicturesofyoungwomenswooningoverBernieasthoughhewereBieber.

Continuereadingthemainstory

Sheassumedthatthefixwasin,thatsheandtheD.N.C.hadarrangedforthecoronationthatshefeltshewasrobbedof
inthetulipcrazeof2008.

EveryonejustlaughedwhenSanders,acrankylonerfromVermontwithanondescriptSenaterecord,decidedto
challengeQueenHillary.Clintonandheraidesintonedwink,winkthatitwouldbehealthytohaveaprimaryfight
withSandersandMartinOMalley.

ButBerniebecamethesurprisebelleofhissidesrevolutionaryball.Andnowhehasgottenatasteofitandhelikesitand
hewontletitgo.HesbedevilingthedaylightoutofHillary.

HillaryandheralliesarespinninganarrativethatBernieislessloyaltotheDemocraticcausethanshewaswithObama.
AndTrumpdoesdelightinquotingBerniescontentionthatHillarylacksthejudgmenttobepresident.OnFriday,when
heacceptedtheendorsementoftheN.R.A.atitsconvention,TrumpmischievouslyurgedSanderstorunasathird-party
candidateandsaidhewouldlovetohaveadebatewithbothHillaryandBernieonstage.

HillarysaysSandersneedstodohisparttounifytheparty,asshedidin2008.Butevenonthedayofthelastprimaries
inthatrace,whenshewastheonewhowasmathematicallyeliminatedunlessthesuperdelegatesturned,shecameonstage
toTerryMcAuliffeheraldingherasthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStates.Shethentoutedhavingmorevotesthanany
primarycandidateinhistoryasherfanscheeredYes,shewill!andDenver!

SeeingTrumpssoaringnegatives,Sandersthinks,ifhecouldjustgetpastHillary,hecouldactuallybepresident.

TheBerniebroviolencechairthrowing,sexistname-callingandferalthreatsattheNevadastatepartyconvention
lastweekendwasdenouncedasascarysituationbyhisSenatecolleagueBarbaraBoxer.

Sanderscondemnedtheviolencewhilestokingtheoutrage,urgingtheDemocraticPartytoopenthedoors,letthe
peoplein.HeflashedabitofTrump,sosureinhisbeliefthatthesystemisriggedthathefedoffthenastyenergy.

Continuereadingthemainstory

BoxerhadtocallSandersseveraltimesbeforehecalledback.SheandotherDemocraticSenatewomenarefedupwith
hiscrusade,feelingenoughisenough.

IvetalkedtoseveralformerClintonandObamaWhiteHouseaideswhodontenjoycheckinginwiththejoylessClinton
campaigninBrooklyn.ItstheBataanDeathMarch,onesays.

HopefulacceptanceofHillaryhasshiftedtoamazeddisbeliefthatshecantputawayBernie.Givendynastyfatigueand
Hillarysage,manyDemocratsassumedthattheirfront-runnerwouldcomeoutofthegatewithavisionforthefuturethat
gavehercampaignafreshhue,insteadofwhitepaperstinkeringaroundtheedges.Sheshouldhavebeenfaroverher
husbandsbridgetothe21stcenturyandwaydownthehighwaybynow.

Instead,herbignewideaistoputBillinchargeoftheeconomyagain(hopefully,withlessWallStreetderegulation).Again
withthetwoforthepriceofone.AndpleasedontdenyusthepleasureofseeingBillchoosethechinapatterns.

HillarysBataanDeathMarchismakingRepublicansreconsidertheirownsuicidemissionwithTrump.Morearelooking
atClintonsinabilitytogettheflashinglightsgoinglikeherhusband,andthinking:Huh,maybewerenotdeadhere.
MaybeTeflonDoncouldpullthisoff.
The2016raceistranscendentallybizarre.Wehavetwonear-nomineeswiththehighestunfavorablesatthispointinthe
raceofanyinmodernhistory.Weseemtohaveamajorityofvotersinbothpartieswhoaredrivenbythedesiretovote
againsttheothercandidate,ratherthanfortheirown.

DebbieWassermanSchultztriestoherdyoungwomentoHillarybyraisingthespecterofRoev.Wadebeingoverturned.
AndformerPennsylvaniaGov.EdRendellsaidTrumpsobsessionwith10sandD-cupswouldcomebacktohaunt
himandgiveDemocratswinsbecausethereareprobablymoreuglywomeninAmericathanattractivewomen.

HillarycantgenerateexcitementonherownsosheisrelyingonfearofTrumptogetherintotheWhiteHouse.And
TrumpisrelyingonfearofeverythingtogethimintotheWhiteHouse.

Sovotersarestuckinthemuckofthenegative:Whatareyoumostafraidof?

SentfrommyiPad
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/22/201608:17:59AM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: TheDangerousAcceptanceofDonaldTrump-TheNewYorker

TheDangerousAcceptanceofDonaldTrump

Viceisamonsterofsofrightfulmien,/As,tobehated,needsbuttobeseen,thepoetAlexanderPopewrote,inlines
thatwereonce,astheysaidbackintheday,imprintedonthemindofeveryschoolboy.Popecontinued,Yetseentoo
oft,familiarwithherface,/wefirstendure,thenpity,thenembrace.Thethree-partprocessbywhichthegrossbecomes
thetakenforgrantedhasbeenonmatchlesslygrimviewthispastweekintheascentofDonaldTrump.Firstmerely
enduredbythoseintheRepublicanParty,withpainedgrimacesandfaintbleatsofreluctance,baretolerationpassed
quicklyoverintoblind,partisanallegiancehesgoingtobethenominee,afterall,andsoisourboy.Thenaweirdkind
ofpityarose,directednotsomuchathim(hesupplieshisownself-pity)asathissupporters,onthepremisethattheir
existencesomehowmakeshimachampionforthedispossessed,althoughtheevidenceindicatesthathisfollowersare
mostlystirredbyfamiliarracialandculturalresentments,ofwhichTrumphasbeenasingle-mindedspokesperson.

Nowfortheembrace.Onebyone,peoplewhohadnotmerelyresistedhimbeforebutcalledhimbyhispropername
who,untilamonthago,weredeterminedtoopposeamantheyrightlydescribedasaconartistandapathologicalliar
aresuddenlygettingonboard.Columnistsandmagazinesthatamonthagoweresaying#NeverTrumparenowvibrating
withthefrissonofhisaudacity,fawningoverhimoratleastthrillingtohisrisingpollnumbersandtellingoneanother,We
cancontrolhim.

No,youcant.Onecanargueaboutwhethertocallhimafascistoranauthoritarianpopulistoragrotesquejokemadein
anightmaresharedbetweenPhilipK.DickandTomWolfe,butunderanylabelTrumpisadeclaredenemyoftheliberal
constitutionalorderoftheUnitedStatestheorderthathasmadeit,infact,thegreatandpluralcountrythatitalreadyis.
HeannounceshisenmitytoAmericabywordandactioneveryday.Itisarticulatedinhisinsistenceontherightnessof
tortureandtheacceptablemurderofnoncombatants.Itisself-evidentinthethreatshemakesdailytodestroyhispolitical
enemies,madeonlyworsebythefrivolityandtransienceofthetoneofthosethreats.HemakeshisenmitytoAmerican
valuesclearwhenhesuggeststhatthePresidencyholdsabsolutepower,throughwhichhewillbeabletoendopposition
whetherbyquestioningtheownershipofnewspapersortalkingaboutchanginglibellawsorthreateningtotakeaway
F.C.C.licenses.TosayWell,hewouldnotreallyhavethepowertoaccomplishthatistomisunderstandthenatureof
thin-skinnedauthoritariansinpower.Theydonotarriveinofficeanddiscover,asconstitutionalistsdo,thattheir
capabilitiesaremorelimitedthantheyimagined.Theyarrive,andthenmaketheirpoweraslargeastheycan.

AndTrumpannounceshisenmityinthechoiceofhiscompanions.TheMurdochmediaconglomeratehasbeenorderedto
acquiesceitsnosurprisethatithas.ButTrumpsotherfellow-travellersincludeRogerStone,theRepublicanpolitical
operativeanddirty-tricksmaven,whilehisvenueshaveincludedthebroadcastsofAlexJones,arantingconspiracy
theoristwhobelievesinaGlobalistplotwhereinanalienforcenotofthisworldisattackinghumanitynottomention
JonessmarketingofthetheorythatMichelleObamaisatransvestitewhomurderedJoanRivers.Thesearenotharmless
oddballsTrumpisflirtingwith.Thesearenotmembersofthelunaticfringe.Thesearethelunatics.

TedCruzcalledTrumpapathologicalliar,thekindwhodoesnotknowthedifferencebetweenliesandtruth.Whatever
theclinicaldiagnosis,wedoappeartobegetting,inplaceoftheoncefamousBigLieofthenineteen-thirties,asordid
blizzardoflies.TheBigLiewasfitforatimeofprocessionalsandnighttimerallies,andfilmsthatfeaturedthem.The
blizzardofliesismadeforTwitterandthequickhitofanimpulseculture.Trumpsliesarrivewithsuchrapiditythatbefore
onecanberefutedanewonecomestotakeitsplace.Itwasnthisvoiceonthattapeofpitifulself-promotion.O.K.,it
wasbuthenevermockedthehandicappedreporter,hewasmerelyimitatinganobsequiousone.Themediaeventually
moveson,shrugginghelplessly,tothenextlie.Thenthenextlie,andthenext.Iftheliesarebizarreenoughandfrequent
enough,theyprovokelittlemorethananervousgiggleandacryofWell,guessheschangedtherules!

HesnotHitler,ashiswiferecentlysaid?Well,ofcourseheisnt.ButthenHitlerwasntHitleruntilhewas.Ateachstep
oftheway,theshockwastemperedbyacceptance.Itdependedonconservativespretendinghewasntsobad,
comparedwiththeCommunists,whileatthesametimethemilitantleftdecidedthattheirrealenemieswerethemoderate
leftists,whowerereallyindistinguishablefromtheNazis.Theradicalprogressivesdecidedthattherewasnodifference
betweenthedemocraticleftandthetotalitarianrightandthatanexplosionofinstitutionswasexactlythemostthrillingthing
imaginable.

TheAmericanRepublicstandsthreatenedbythefirstovertlyanti-democraticleaderofalargepartyinitsmodernhistory
anauthoritarianwithnograspofhistory,noimpulsecontrol,andnoapparentbarriersonhiswilltopower.Theright
thingtodo,foreveryonewhobelievesinliberaldemocracy,istogatheraroundandworktodefeathimonElectionDay.
Instead,weseemtobeeitherengagedinparochialfeudingorcaughtbyhabitsoftribalhatredsoingrainedthattheyhave
becomeimpossibletoescapeevenatmomentsofmaximumdanger.BernieSanderswouldntmindbringingdownthe
DemocraticPartytopreventitfromsurrenderingtocorporateforcesandyethemaybeincreasingthepossibilityof
rule-by-billionaire.

Thereisadifferencebetweenmajorandminorissues,andbetweenprimaryandsecondaryvalues.Manyofusthinkthat
itwouldbeterribleiftheradical-revisionistreadingoftheSecondAmendmentcreatedbytheHellerdecisioneightyears
agowaskeptinplaceinaconstitutionalcourtmanyontheothersidethinkitwouldbeterribleifthatotherradical
decision,Roev.Wade,continuedtobefoundtobecompatiblewiththeconstitutionalorder.Whatweallshouldagreeon
isthattheonethingworsewouldbetohavenoconstitutionalorderlefttoargueabout.

IfTrumpcametopower,thereisadecentchancethattheAmericanexperimentwouldbeover.Thisisnotahyperbolic
predictionitisnotahystericalpredictionitissimplyacandidreadingofwhathistorytellsushappensincountrieswith
leaderslikeTrump.Countriesdontreallyrecoverfrombeingtakenoverbyunstableauthoritariannationalistsofany
politicalbent,leftorrightnotbyPernsorCastrosorPutinsorFrancosorLeninsorfillintheblanks.Thenationmay
survive,butthewoundtohopeandorderwillneverfullyheal.AskArgentiniansorChileansorVenezuelansorRussiansor
ItaliansorGermans.Thenationalpsychenevergetsoverlearningthatitsinstitutionsarethatfragileandtheirabilityto
resistadictatorthatweak.IfhecanrouttheRepublicanPartyinaweekbyhavingeffectivelysecuredthenomination,ask
yourselfwhatTrumpcoulddowiththeAmericangovernmentifhehadamandate.Beforethosefamousschoolroomlines,
Popemadeanotherobservation,whichwasthatevenasyourecognizethattheworldisamixed-upplace,youstillcant
foolyourselfaboutthedifferencebetweentheacceptableandtheunacceptable:Fools!whofromhenceintothenotion
fall/Thatviceorvirtuethereisnoneatall,hewrote.Istherenoblackorwhite?/Askyourownheart,andnothingisso
plain/Tistomistakethem,coststhetimeandpain.Thepainofnotseeingthatblackisblacksoonenoughwillbeours,
andthetimetorecognizethisisnow.

SentfrommyiPad
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/18/201602:51:39PM
To: RobertOtto<ottorc@state.gov>
Subject: PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatoryApproachtotheWestandPrepareforWar

PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatoryApproachtotheWestandPrepare
forWar

RIANovosti/Reuters

BEIRUTSomethingsignificanthappenedinthelastfewdaysofApril,butitseemstheonlypersonwhonoticedwas
StephenCohen,aprofessoremeritusofRussianstudiesatNewYorkUniversityandPrincetonUniversity.

Inarecordedinterview,CohennotesthatasectionoftheRussianleadershipisshowingsignsofrestlessness,focusedon
PresidentVladimirPutinsleadership.Wearenottalkingofstreetprotesters.WearenottalkingcoupsagainstPutinhis
popularityremainsabove80percentandheisnotabouttobedisplaced.Butwearetalkingaboutseriouspressurebeing
appliedtothepresidenttocomedownfromthehighwirealongwhichhehaswarilytroduntilnow.

Putincarries,atoneendofhisbalancingpole,thevariouselitesmoreorientedtowardtheWestandtheWashington
Consensusand,atthepolesotherend,thoseconcernedthatRussiafacesbotharealmilitarythreatfromtheNorth
AtlanticTreatyOrganizationandahybridgeo-financialwaraswell.Heisbeingpressedtocomedownonthesideofthe
latter,andtoprythegripoftheformerfromtheleversofeconomicpowerthattheystilltightlyhold.
PutinmeetsRussiastopmilitarybrassintheKremlinonApril21.(MikhailKlimentyev/Sputnik,KremlinPool
PhotoviaAP)

Inshort,theissuecomingtoaheadintheKremliniswhetherRussiaissufficientlypreparedforfurtherWesterneffortsto
ensureitdoesnotimpedeorrivalAmericanhegemony.CanRussiasustainageo-financialassault,ifoneweretobe
launched?AndissuchathreatrealormereWesternposturingforotherends?

WhatissoimportantisthatiftheseeventsaremisreadintheWest,whichisalreadyprimedtoseeanyRussiandefensive
actasoffensiveandaggressive,thegroundwillalreadyhavebeenlaidforescalation.Wealreadyhadthefirstwartopush
backagainstNATOinGeorgia.ThesecondpushbackwarisongoinginUkraine.Whatmightbetheconsequencestoa
third?

Putinisbeingpushedtowieldtheknifeandtocutdeeply.

Inmid-April,GeneralAlexanderBastrykin,theheadofRussiasInvestigativeCommittee(asortofsuperattorneygeneral,
asCohendescribesit),wrotethatRussiaitsroleinSyrianotwithstandingismilitarilyillpreparedtofaceanewwar
eitherathomeorabroad,andthattheeconomyisinabadway,too.Russia,furthermore,isequallyillpreparedto
withstandageo-financialwar.HegoesontosaythattheWestispreparingforwaragainstRussiaandthatRussias
leadershipdoesnotappeartobeawareoforalerttothedangerthecountryfaces.

BastrykindoesnotsaythatPutinistoblame,thoughthecontextmakesitclearthatthisiswhathemeans.Butafewdays
later,Cohenexplains,thearticlesparkedfurtherdiscussionfromthosewhobothendorseBastrykinanddoprecisely
mentionPutinbyname.Then,Cohennotes,aretiredRussiangeneralenteredthefraytoconfirmthattheWestisindeed
preparingforwarhepointedtoNATOdeploymentsintheBaltics,theBlackSeaandPoland,amongotherplaces
andunderlinesagaintheunpreparednessoftheRussianmilitarytofacethisthreat.ThisisaheavyindictmentofPutin,
Cohensaysoftherevelationsfromthisanalysis.Itisnowoutintheopen.
SouvenirplatesdepictingSyriasPresidentBasharal-AssadandPutininDamascusonFeb.8.(REUTERS/Omar
Sanadiki)

Whatisthisallabout?ForsometimetherehavebeenindicationsthatakeyfactionwithintheKremlin,onethatvery
looselymightbetermednationalist,hasbecomedeeplydisenchantedwithPutinstolerationoftheWashington
ConsensusanditsadherentsattheRussiancentralbankandinotherpivotaleconomicposts.Thenationalistswantthem
purged,alongwithPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevsperceivedWestern-friendlygovernment.Putinmaybehighly
popular,butMedvedevsgovernmentisnot.Thegovernmentseconomicpolicyisbeingcriticized.Theopposingfaction
wantstoseeanimmediatemobilizationofthemilitaryandtheeconomyforwar,conventionalorhybrid.Thisisnotabout
wantingPutinousteditisaboutpushinghimtowieldtheknifeandtocutdeeply.

WhatdoesthisfactionwantapartfromRussiapreparingforwar?TheywantaharderlineinUkraineandforPutinto
rejectU.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerryssnaresinSyria.Inshort,KerryisstilltryingtoforceAssadsremovaland
continuestopushforfurtherU.S.supportfortheopposition.TheAmericangovernmentisreluctantaswelltodisentangle
moderatesfromjihadis.TheviewisthatAmericaisinsincereintryingtocooperatewithRussiaonasettlementand
moreintentonentrappingPutininSyria.Perhapsthisisright,asGarethPorterandElijahMagnierhaveoutlined.

TheObamaadministrationisactingtoweakenPutinandLavrovshand,andthereforestrengtheningthe
handofthoseinRussiacallingforafullmobilizationforwar.

WhatthismeansatamorefundamentallevelisthatPutinisbeingaskedtosidewiththenationalistsagainstthe
internationalistsalignedwiththeWashingtonConsensus,andtopurgethemfrompower.Recall,however,thatPutincame
topowerpreciselytotemperthispolaritywithinRussiansocietybyrisingaboveittohealandrebuildadiversesociety
recoveringfromdeepdivisionsandcrises.Heisbeingaskedtorenouncethatforwhichhestandsbecause,heisbeing
told,RussiaisbeingthreatenedbyaWestthatispreparingforwar.

TheprospectoftheseeminginevitabilityoffutureconflictishardlynewtoPutin,whohasspokenoftenonthistheme.He
has,however,chosentoreactbyplacingtheemphasisongainingtimeforRussiatostrengthenitselfandtryingtocorner
theWestintosomesortofcooperationorpartnershiponapoliticalsettlementinSyria,forexample,whichmighthave
deflectedthewardynamicintoamorepositivecourse.Putinhas,atthesametime,skillfullysteeredEuropeansawayfrom
NATOescalation.
KerryandSergeyLavrovinMoscowonMarch24.(APPhoto/AndrewHarnik,Pool)

ButinbothoftheseobjectivestheObamaadministrationisactingtoweakenPutinandLavrovshand,andtherefore
strengtheningthehandofthoseinRussiacallingforafullmobilizationforwar.ItisnotcoincidentalthatBastrykinsalarm-
raisingarticlecamenow,astheSyriaceasefireisbeingdeliberatelyinfringedandbroken.Isthisproperlyunderstoodin
theWhiteHouse?Ifso,mustweconcludethatescalationagainstRussiaisdesired?AsCohennotes,theWashington
Post[initseditorialpages]tellsusregularlythatnever,never,never...underanycircumstances,canthecriminalPutinbe
astrategicpartneroftheUnitedStates.

Isthediethencast?IsPutinboundtofail?Isconflictinevitable?Ostensibly,itmayseemso.Thestageiscertainlybeing
set.Ihavewrittenbeforeon,thepivotalreadyunderwayfromwithintheU.S.defenseandintelligencearmsofObamas
ownadministrationtowardwhatisoftenreferredtoastheWolfowitzdoctrine,asetofpoliciesdevelopedbytheU.S.
inthe1990sandearly2000s.Theauthorofoneofthosepolicies,the1992U.S.DefensePlanningGuidance,wrotethat
theDPGinessencesoughtto:

...precludetheemergenceofbipolarity,anotherglobalrivalryliketheColdWar,ormultipolarity,aworldofmany
greatpowers,asexistedbeforethetwoworldwars.Todoso,thekeywastopreventahostilepowerfrom
dominatingacriticalregion,definedashavingtheresources,industrialcapabilitiesandpopulationthat,ifcontrolled
byahostilepower,wouldposeaglobalchallenge.

InaninterviewwithVox,U.S.SecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterwasclearthatthiswasbroadlythebearingbywhich
thePentagonwasbeingdirectedtosail.Thenagain,thereistheratherobviousfactthat,insteadofthemuch-toutedU.S.
militarypivotostensiblybeingtoAsia,theactualNATOpivotisbeingdirectedtoCentralEuropetoRussiasborders.
AndNATOisplainlypushingtheenvelopeashardasitdares,upandagainstRussiasborders.

Thenthereistherhetoric:Russianaggression.RussianambitionstorecovertheformerSovietEmpire.Russianattemptsto
divideanddestroyEurope.Andsoon.

Isconflictinevitable?

Why?ItmaybethatNATOsimplypresumestheseenvelope-pushingexerciseswillneveractuallycometowar,that
Russiasomehowwillbackoff.AndthatcontinuouslypokingthebearwillserveAmericasinterestinkeepingEurope
togetherandNATOcohesive,itssanctionsinplace,dividedfromRussia.NATOisduetomeetinWarsawinearlyJuly.
Perhaps,then,theWesternlanguageaboutRussiasaggressionislittlemorethanAmericaheadingoffanyEuropean
revoltonsanctionsbystirringupapseudo-threatfromRussiaandthattheRussiansaremisreadingAmericantrue
intentions,whichdonotgobeyondthis.Ordothey?

TheextraordinarybitternessandemotionaloutragewithwhichtheAmericanestablishmenthasreactedtoDonaldTrumps
probablenominationasapresidentialcandidatesuggeststhattheU.S.establishmentisfarfromhavinggivenuponthe
Wolfowitzdoctrine.SohasPutinsstrategyofco-optingAmericaintheMiddleEastbeenthefailurethattheBastrykin
factionimplies?Inotherwords,isitthecasethatthepolicyofgainingcooperationhasfailedandthatPutinmustnow
movebeyondit,becauseAmericaisnotabouttocooperateandis,instead,continuingtheprocessofcorneringRussia?

RussianarmyofficerstrainSyrianarmysoldiersinPalmyraonMay5.(VASILYMAXIMOV/AFP/GettyImages)

AstheTexasTribunereportedonMay4,Forthefirsttimesincehisownpresidency,GeorgeH.W.Bushisplanningto
staysilentintheracefortheOvalOfficeandtheyoungerformerpresidentBushplanstostaysilentaswell.

TogetasenseofthewarwithintheRepublicanParty(andtheDemocratsarenolessconflicted),readthisreactiontothat
storybythetwo-timeRepublicanpresidentialcandidatePatBuchanan.Heresasmallselection:

TrumpstriumphisasweepingrepudiationofBushRepublicanismbythesamepartythatnominatedthem[theBushs]
fourtimesforthepresidency.Notonlywassonandbrother,Jeb,humiliatedandchasedoutoftheraceearly,but
TrumpwonhisnominationbydenouncingasrottentothecoretheprimaryfruitsofsignatureBushpolicies...Thatisa
savageindictmentoftheBushlegacy.AndaRepublicanelectorate,inthelargestturnoutinprimaryhistory,nodded,
Amentothat,brother!

Buchanancontinuesinanotherpiece:Thehubrishereastonishes.ARepublicanestablishmentthathasbeenbeatenas
badlyasCarthageintheThirdPunicWarisnowmakingdemandsonScipioAfricanusandthevictoriousRomansa
referencetoPaulRyansattemptstomakeTrumpadheretoBushRepublicanism.Thisisdifficulttoabsorb.

Buthere,inthiscrisis,isanopportunity.Americacouldbeheadingintorecession,corporateprofitsarefalling,huge
swathsofdebtarelookingsuspect,globaltradeissinkingandU.S.policytoolsforcontrollingtheglobalfinancialsystem
havelosttheircredibility.Andtherearenoeasysolutionstotheglobaloverhangofincreasinglyputriddebt.
TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannationalsecurityinterestspassdirectlythrough
Russia,whichtheyclearlydo.

ButaPresidentTrumpwerethattohappencanlayblameforanyperfecteconomicstormontheestablishment.
Americaisallknottedupatpresent,asthepresidentialnominationmeleemadeclear.Someknotswilltaketimetoundo,
butsomecouldbeundonerelativelyeasily,anditseemsthatTrumphassomesenseofthis.Itcouldstartwithadramatic
diplomaticinitiative.

Historically,mostradicalprojectsofreformhavestartedinthisway:overturnapieceofconventionalwisdomandunlock
theentirepolicygridlockthemomentumgainedwillallowareformertosteamrolleventhehardestresistanceinthis
case,WallStreetandthefinancialoligarchyintomakingreforms.

AmuralinVilnius,Lithuania,depictingTrumpandPutinonMay13.(PETRASMALUKAS/AFP/GettyImages)

TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannationalsecurityinterestspassdirectlythroughRussiawhich
theyclearlydothatRussiadoesnotthreatenAmericawhichitclearlydoesnotandthatNATOis,inanycase,
obsolete,ashehassaid.ItmakesperfectsensetojoinwithRussiaanditsalliestosurroundanddestroytheso-called
IslamicState.

Ifonelistenscarefully,Trumpseemshalfwaythere.Itwouldcutalotofknots,maybeevenuntiethepolicygridlock.
Perhapsthatiswhatheintends?

DidtheColdWareverend?

SentfrommyiPad
From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/17/201605:42:16AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:

Imerelyanalyzeandreportinanimpartialmanner.:)

Simeshasprobablyalreadyfiredthiskid'sa$$:

http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/donald-trump-will-not-save-realism-from-itself/

OnTue,May17,2016at8:40AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Hopeyoufeelbettertoo

OnTue,May17,2016at8:39AM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VladFrolov<vfroloff@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,May17,2016at8:29AM
Subject:Re:
To:DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>

Ohthanks,Igotsickandforgottosendittoyou.Apologies

SentfrommyiPhone

On17May2016,at15:14,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:

Likethisalot.

http://slon.ru/posts/67878
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/18/201609:44:55AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATENIGHTMEETSVLADORAMA][CURIOUSER.....ANDCURIOUSER]DOJOpensInvestigationIntoRUDopingScandalRAF
Subject:
fightersinterceptRUjetsnearEEforsecondtimeinaweek....[DUMB&DUMBER]HufP/AlastairCrooke:PutinisBeingPushedtoAbandonH...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,May17,20168:59PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTMEETSVLADORAMA][CURIOUSER.....ANDCURIOUSER]DOJOpensInvestigationIntoRUDopingScandal
RAFfightersinterceptRUjetsnearEEforsecondtimeinaweek....[DUMB&DUMBER]HufP/AlastairCrooke:PutinisBeingPushedto
AbandonH...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,May17,2016at11:50PM
Subject:[LATENIGHTMEETSVLADORAMA][CURIOUSER.....ANDCURIOUSER]DOJOpensInvestigationIntoRU
DopingScandalRAFfightersinterceptRUjetsnearEEforsecondtimeinaweek....[DUMB&DUMBER]HufP/Alastair
Crooke:PutinisBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatoryApproachSteveCohen:IsWarWithRussiaPossible?......[A
WARNING]AttemptsToDownplayGrowingRussianMilitaryThreatWontWash......[ANDPLAINSCARY]Facerecognition
apptakingRussiabystormussiabystormmaybringendtopublicanonymity
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:jm200p<jm200p@mac.com>
Date:Tue,May17,2016at4:18PM
Subject:NYTimes-JusticeDepartmentOpensInvestigationIntoRussianDopingScandal
To:waz<waz2102@columbia.edu>

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/sports/olympics/justice-department-russia-doping-investigation.html?
emc=edit_na_20160517&nlid=18432982&ref=cta&_r=0

JusticeDepartmentOpensInvestigationIntoRussian
DopingScandal

ByREBECCAR.RUIZMAY17,2016

Photo

Russiassportsminister,VitalyMutko,hassaidRussianofficials,coachesandathleteshavemadeserious
mistakes,buthehasnotoutlinedthemoradmittedtoanystateinvolvement.CreditSergeiSavostyanov\TASS,
viaGettyImages

TheUnitedStatesDepartmentofJusticehasopenedaninvestigationintostate-sponsoreddopingby
dozensofRussiastopathletes,accordingtotwopeoplefamiliarwiththecase.Theinquiryescalates
whathasbeenaroilingsportscontroversyintoafederalcriminalcaseinvolvingforeignofficials.

TheUnitedStatesattorneysofficefortheEasternDistrictofNewYorkisscrutinizingRussian
governmentofficials,athletes,coaches,antidopingauthoritiesandanyonewhomighthavebenefited
unfairlyfromadopingregime,accordingtothepeople,whodidnothaveauthorizationtospeakabout
theinquirypublicly.Prosecutorsarebelievedtobepursuingconspiracyandfraudcharges.

Federalcourtshaveallowedprosecutorstobringcasesagainstforeignerslivingabroadifthereissome
connectiontotheUnitedStates.Thatconnectioncanbelimited,suchastheuseofanAmericanbank.

AreportpublishedbytheWorldAnti-DopingAgencyinNovemberaccusedRussiaofsystematicstate-
sponsoreddoping.ThechemistidentifiedasalinchpininthatoperationGrigoryRodchenkov,the
longtimeheadofRussiasantidopinglaboratorytoldTheNewYorkTimesthismonththathe
workedforyears,atthedirectionoftheRussiangovernment,tohelpthecountrysathletesuse
banned,performance-enhancingsubstancesinglobalcompetitionandgoundetected.

HeisamongthepeopleunderscrutinybytheUnitedStatesgovernment,accordingtosomeonewith
directknowledgeofthecasewhospokeonconditionofanonymity.

Russianofficialshaverespondedtotheallegationswithbothdefianceandcontrition.Whileoften
emphaticallydismissingtheclaimsasaWesternconspiracyintendedtodiscreditRussia,theyhave
sometimesstruckamoreconciliatorytone,perhapsseekingtowinthefavorofsportsofficialsin
controlofthecountrysabilitytocompeteinthecomingSummerOlympicsinRiodeJaneiro.

OPENGRAPHIC

TheRussianSportsMinistryacknowledgeddopingproblemsinastatementlastweekafterDr.
RodchenkovsclaimswerepublishedinTheTimes.Itdidnotspecifywhatthoseproblemswere.
Then,writinginTheSundayTimes,aBritishnewspaper,theRussiansportsminister,VitalyMutko,
saidthatRussianofficials,coachesandathleteshadmadeseriousmistakes,buthestoppedshortof
outliningthemoradmittingtoanystateinvolvement.

Intheirinquiry,UnitedStatesprosecutorsareexpectedtoscrutinizeanyonewhomighthave
facilitateduncleancompetitionintheUnitedStatesorusedtheUnitedStatesbankingsystemto
conductadopingprogram.

EliteRussianathleteshavecompetedinseveralmajorsportingeventsintheUnitedStates,like
theBostonMarathonandinternationalbobsledandskeletonchampionshipsinLakePlacid,N.Y.

Theinquiry,whichoriginatedwiththeFederalBureauofInvestigation,wouldhavetoclearseveral
hurdlesbeforechargescouldbefiled.Evenifprosecutorsareabletoestablishjurisdiction,securingthe
cooperationofRussianauthoritiesinpursuingevidenceandwitnessesandinultimatelydelivering
anychargeddefendantstotheUnitedStateswouldbeallbutimpossible.

ItisrarefortheUnitedStatesgovernmenttotakeonsportsdopingcases.InFebruary2012,the
UnitedStatesattorneyinLosAngeles,AndrBirotteJr.,droppedatwo-yearcriminal
investigationintoLanceArmstrongandhisPostalServicecyclingteamthathadexploredwhetherMr.
Armstrongandothersdefraudedsponsorsbyoperatingadopingprogram.

TheUnitedStatesAnti-DopingAgency,notagovernmententity,pursuedthecase.Itultimately
strippedMr.ArmstrongofhissevenTourdeFrancetitlesandbarredhimfromcyclingforlifeforthe
mostsophisticated,professionalizedandsuccessfuldopingprogramthatsporthaseverseen.

ButprosecutorsfortheEasternDistrictinBrooklynhavetakenonhigh-profilesportscorruptioncases
before.Forseveralyears,theofficehasbeeninvestigatingcorruptionwithinFIFA,worldsoccers
governingbody.Thatcase,announcedlastMay,hassofarresultedinchargesagainst40soccer
officialsandbusinessexecutives,aswellastwocorporations.Morethanathirdhavepleadedguilty.

WhiletheEasternDistrictsFIFAinvestigationandRussiandopinginvestigationareindependent
inquiries,thereisoverlapbetweenthetwomatters.Prosecutorsfromthebusinessandsecuritiesfraud
sectionandtheorganizedcrimedivisionareinvolvedinboth,andcertainpublicfigureshave
overlappingtiestoRussiansportsandglobalsoccer.Highlyinternationalinscope,theFIFAcasehas
implicatedpeopleoftwodozennationalities,andithasrequiredthecooperationofvariousforeign
authoritiesespeciallytheSwissinmakingarrests,rulingonextraditionrequestsandsharing
informationaboutbanktransactions.

Mr.Mutko,Russiasministerofsport,isamemberofFIFAsrulingcouncil,apositionhehasheldsince
2009.HewasappointedtohiscurrentroleinRussiangovernmentbyPresidentVladimirV.Putinin
2008.

InhisaccounttoTheTimes,Dr.Rodchenkov,whooversawRussiasantidopinglabinMoscowfora
decade,saidheoftentookdirectordersfromMr.Mutkosdeputy,YuriNagornykh,especiallyleading
uptotheSochiOlympicsin2014.InSochi,Dr.Rodchenkovsaid,hestagedanelaboratedark-of-night
operationtodestroyRussianathletestaintedurineonordersfromthegovernment.

InanewsconferencelastFriday,Mr.NagornykhdisputedDr.Rodchenkovsclaims.Theresno
dopingprograminRussiansport,hesaid.Therewasnoneandwillbenone.

Inthewakeofthereportlastfall,whichcastshadowsonnotjusttheMoscowlaboratorybutalso
Russiasantidopingagency,Dr.RodchenkovsaidthatMr.Mutkosummonedhimtothesports
ministrysheadquartersandrequestedhisresignation.Dr.RodchenkovfledtotheUnitedStates,
fearingforhissafety,hesaid.

2 COMMENTS

BradleyD.Simon,acriminaldefenselawyerofSimonandPartnersinNewYork,confirmedthathe
wasrepresentingDr.RodchenkovbutdeclinedtocommentontheJusticeDepartmentinvestigation.

CurrentlylivinginLosAngeles,Dr.Rodchenkov,57,hassaidhehasnointentionofreturningtoRussia.
Ihavenochoice,hesaidinarecentinterview.Iambetweentwoflames.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,May17,2016at8:50PM
Subject:RAFfightersinterceptRussianjetsnearEstoniaforsecondtimeinaweek|Worldnews|TheGuardian
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/17/raf-fighters-intercept-russian-jets-estonia-second-time-week

RAFfightersinterceptRussianjetsnearEstonia
forsecondtimeinaweek
RoyalAirForcefightershaveinterceptedRussianjetsapproachingEstoniaforthesecondtimeinaweek,the
MinistryofDefencesaid.TheTyphoonswerescrambledtomeetfiveunidentifiedaircraftininternationalairspace
neartheBalticstatesbordersonTuesday.TheyshadowedtwoSu-27FlankerfightersandanIL-20Coot-A
reconnaissanceaircraftnorthofEstoniabeforetwomoreSu-27sweredetectedandmet,theMoDsaid.

AspokesmansaidtheRussianaircraftwereoperatingwithouttransmittingrecognisedidentificationcodes,norwere
theycommunicatingwithregionalairtrafficcontrolcentres.

ItcomesafteranincidentonFridaywhenTyphoonsfromAmariairbaseinEstoniainterceptedthreeRussian
transportaircraftapproachingtheBalticinsimilarcircumstances.

FourRAFjetswerelastmonthdeployedtojointheBalticairpolicingmissionwhichseesNatomembershelp
otherswhodonothavetheirownpolicingcapabilitiesandwillremainthereuntiltheendofAugust.MichaelFallon,
thedefencesecretary,said:WewillcontinuetosecuretheBalticskiesonbehalfofNatoandourallies.

DuringtheRAFspreviousdeploymenttotheairpolicingroleovertheBalticstates,Typhoonswerescrambled17
times,interceptingmorethan40Russianaircraft,theMoDsaid.

WingCommanderGordonMelville,commandingofficerofRAFLossiemouth-based140ExpeditionaryAirWing,
added:Severalyearsexperienceoperatinginthisareaindicatesthatwecanexpectfurthersimilaractivityinthe
monthsahead.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Tue,May17,2016at5:55PM
Subject:PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatory(!)Approach[ED:Twoforthe"Gottatobekidding"
section]
To:

*****************

PutinIsBeingPushedtoAbandonHisConciliatoryApproachtotheWestandPrepare
forWar
05/17/2016

AlastairCrookeFmr.MI-6agentAuthor,Resistance:TheEssenceofIslamicRevolution

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair-crooke/putin-west-war_b_9991162.html?

...TrumpcansimplysaythatAmericanandEuropeannationalsecurityinterestspassdirectlythroughRussia
whichtheyclearlydothatRussiadoesnotthreatenAmericawhichitclearlydoesnotandthatNATOis,in
anycase,obsolete,ashehassaid.

ItmakesperfectsensetojoinwithRussiaanditsalliestosurroundanddestroytheso-calledIslamicState...

IsWarWithRussiaPossible?
TheUSisunderminingopportunitiesforcooperationinSyriaandUkraine,whileescalatingNATOsmilitarypresence
nearRussia.

ByStephenF.Cohen

http://www.thenation.com/article/is-war-with-russia-possible/

WashingtonandBrusselsaccuseMoscowofprovocationsagainstNATO.Who,Cohenasks,isprovoking
(aggressingagainst)whom?

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Tue,May17,2016at4:35PM
Subject:AttemptsToDownplayGrowingRussianMilitaryThreatWontWash
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

AttemptsToDownplayGrowingRussianMilitaryThreatWontWash

May17,2016/LexingtonInstitute

DanielGour,Ph.D.Thankfully,theRussianmilitaryisnottenfeettall.Noonesaiditis.Butthatisthewaysomeunnamed
civilianPentagonofficialswanttospinthelegitimateconcernsofseniormilitaryofficersregardingthechallengesposedbythe
improvedcapabilitiesofarapidlymodernizingRussianmilitary.Itis...

ReadMore

AttemptsToDownplayGrowingRussianMilitaryThreat
WontWash
Thankfully,theRussianmilitaryisnottenfeettall.Noonesaiditis.ButthatisthewaysomeunnamedcivilianPentagonofficials
wanttospinthelegitimateconcernsofseniormilitaryofficersregardingthechallengesposedbytheimprovedcapabilitiesofa
rapidlymodernizingRussianmilitary.Itisevenworsewhensomeinthemediatrynotonlytomakesuchacasebuttodemeanthe
reputationandhonestyofamilitaryofficerwhoiscourageouslyattemptingtogettheObamaAdministrationandtheAmerican
peopletotakeseriouslyagrowingthreattoournationalsecurityandthatofourallies.

Russianmilitarymodernizationandthechallengeitposestothenationandthemilitaryhasbeenpubliclyacknowledgedatthemost
seniorlevelsoftheDepartmentofDefense.Discussingtheneedfortheso-calledThirdOffsetStrategy,DeputyDefenseSecretary
RobertWorkexplainedthatoneofthemotivationswastheneedtorespondtothechallengesposedbytheRussianmilitary.Its
modernizingamilitarythatwasinsteepdeclinethroughoutthe1990sandtheearly2000s.Itsnavalandairunitsareoperatingata
paceandanextentthathasntbeenseeninquitesometime,toincludealargeincreaseintrans-oceanicandglobalmilitary
operations.TheUnderSecretaryofDefenseforAcquisition,Technology&Logisticshasbeentellinganyonewhowilllistenthat
theUnitedStatesislosingitstechnologicaladvantagevis--visChinaandRussiaintheairandmaritimedomains,electronic
warfare,space,reliablecommunicationsandISR.

Seniorservinggeneralofficershavebeenjustasclearintheirwarningsthatonland,seaandintheair,U.S.forcesarebeing
challengedbythenewandimprovedRussianmilitary.SincehishearingsonbeingnominatedasChairmanoftheJointChiefsof
Staff,GeneralJosephDunford(USMC)hasbeencrystalclearintheviewthatRussiaisthiscountrysnumberonemilitarythreat.
InaMarch2016presentationatCSIS,GeneralDunfordwentevenfurther,declaringthat:

theRussianmilitarypresentsthegreatestarrayofthreatstoU.S.interests.Despitedecliningpopulation,shrinking
economy,Russiahasmadeasignificantinvestmentinmilitarycapabilities.Putinhasrecentlyfieldedawiderangeof
systemstoincludenewintercontinentalballisticmissiles,aircraft,nuclear-poweredsubmarines,tanks,andairdefense
systems.WeveseensomeofRussiasmoremodernconventionalcapabilitiesondisplayinSyria,andwereclosely
trackingRussiandevelopmentsandactionsinspaceandincyberspace.

ThenewChiefofStaffoftheArmy,GeneralMarkMilleyhasmadesimilarstatements.Thentherearethestatementsbythe
outgoingSupremeAlliedCommander,themilitaryheadofNATOandanAirForceofficer,GeneralPhillipBreedlove,suchasthis
one:Russiacontinuesitslong-termmilitarymodernizationefforts,anditsrecentactionsinUkraineandSyriademonstratean
alarmingincreaseinexpeditionarypowerprojectionandcombatcapabilityandlogisticalsustainmentcapability.Russiahasspent
thelasttwentyyearsanalyzingU.S.militaryoperationsandhasestablishedadoctrineandforcetoeffectivelycounterperceived
U.S.andNATOstrengths.ThecommanderofU.S.AirForceEuropetoldtheNewYorkTimesthattheRussianbuildupofair
defensesthreatensNATOsaccesstoairspaceinpartsofEurope,includingone-thirdoftheskiesinPoland.

TheRussianmilitaryisnotyettenfeettall.Butitisfivefootteninchesandgrowing.Itsgrowthspurtsincethenearlybotched
operationagainstGeorgiain2008isimpressive.TheRussiandefenseministryroutinelydemonstratesitsnew-foundcapabilitiesby
runninglarge-scalesnapexerciseswithforcesthatnumberbetween40-100,000fromallservices.Theyarenoweventhrowingin
thefirstuseofnuclearweapons.InitsoperationsagainstCrimeaandUkraine,Russianforcesdemonstratedaheretofore
unrecognizedcapabilitytocoordinatearmored,artilleryandairunitsalongwiththehighlysuccessfulemploymentofelectronic
warfare,dronesandlong-rangeartillerytolocate,jamandthendestroyUkrainianoperationallevelcommandposts.

ThecriticswouldhaveyoubelievethatthetruepurposebehinddiscussionsoftheRussianmilitarythreatarepurelyself-serving
thattheArmy,inparticular,wantsmoreresourcesandpersonnel.Yet,theNationalCommissionontheFutureoftheArmylooked
atthechallengesfacingthatserviceandconcludedthat:ProjectedRussiandoctrineandcapabilitiestothreatenU.S.interests
suggesttheneedforanArmywithsufficientability,aspartofajointandcombinedNATOorothermultinationalforce,toquickly
counterRussianarmor,artillery,aviation,andproxyforcesattackingEuropeanallies....Asubstantialthreatfrommanned
aircraft,numerousunmannedaerialvehicles,androcketspresentstheneedforrobustanti-airandrocketdefensecapabilities.The
CommissionwouldseemtobeonthesideofthosearguingforgreaterinvestmentinArmycapabilitiestoaddresstheRussian
threat.Bytheway,thereportalsorecommendssendingaheavybrigadecombatteambacktoEurope.

WhenanarticleinarespectedonlinepublicationignorescompellingevidenceoftheseriousnatureoftheRussianthreatand
choosestotargetoneparticularparticipantinthecurrentdebate,youhavetoaskthequestionwhy?

Idontusuallypeppermyblogswithcitationslikesomeoveranxiousgradstudentseekingtoimpresstheprofessor.Butwhen
presentedwitharticlesthatareessentiallyhitpieces,quotingunnamedsourcesandretiredmilitarypersonnelandfailingtofairly
presentthebalanceofevidenceandtestimonyofcurrentseniorcivilianandmilitarypersonnel,Ifeltitwasimportanttopresentthe
otherside.
-Seemoreat:http://lexingtoninstitute.org/attempts-downplay-growing-russian-military-threat-wont-wash/#sthash.4D5u4YII.dpuf

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Tue,May17,2016at11:24PM
Subject:FacerecognitionapptakingRussiabystormmaybringendtopublicanonymity
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

FacerecognitionapptakingRussiabystormmaybringendtopublicanonymity

FindFacecomparesphotostoprofilepicturesonsocialnetworkVkontakteandworksoutidentitieswith
70%reliability

Ifthefoundersofanewfacerecognitionappgettheirway,anonymityinpubliccouldsoonbe
athingofthepast.FindFace,launchedtwomonthsagoandcurrentlytakingRussiabystorm,
allowsuserstophotographpeopleinacrowdandworkouttheiridentities,with70%
reliability.

ItworksbycomparingphotographstoprofilepicturesonVkontakte,asocialnetworkpopular
inRussiaandtheformerSovietUnion,withmorethan200millionaccounts.Infuture,the
designersimagineaworldwherepeoplewalkingpastyouonthestreetcouldfindyoursocial
networkprofilebysneakingaphotographofyou,andshops,advertisersandthepolicecould
pickyourfaceoutofcrowdsandtrackyoudownviasocialnetworks.
Intheshorttimesincethelaunch,Findfacehasamassed500,000usersandprocessednearly
3msearches,accordingtoitsfounders,26-year-oldArtemKukharenko,and29-year-old
AlexanderKabakov.

Kukharenkoisalanky,quietlyspokencomputernerdwhohascomeupwiththealgorithm
thatmakesFindFacesuchanimpressivepieceoftechnology,whileKabakovisthegarrulous
moneyandmarketingman,whodoesallofthetalkingwhenthepairmeettheGuardian.
Unlikeotherfacerecognitiontechnology,theiralgorithmallowsquicksearchesinbigdata
sets.Threemillionsearchesinadatabaseofnearly1bnphotographs:thatshundredsof
trillionsofcomparisons,andallonfournormalservers.Withthisalgorithm,youcansearch
throughabillionphotographsinlessthanasecondfromanormalcomputer,saidKabakov,
duringaninterviewatthecompanysmodestcentralMoscowoffice.Theappwillgiveyouthe
mostlikelymatchtothefacethatisuploaded,aswellas10peopleitthinkslooksimilar.

Kabakovsaystheappcouldrevolutionisedating:Ifyouseesomeoneyoulike,youcan
photographthem,findtheiridentity,andthensendthemafriendrequest.Theinteraction
doesntalwayshavetoinvolvetherathercreepyopeninggambitofclandestinestreet
photography,headded:Italsolooksforsimilarpeople.Soyoucouldjustuploadaphotoofa
moviestaryoulike,oryourex,andthenfind10girlswholooksimilartoherandsendthem
messages.

Somehavesoundedthealarmaboutthepotentiallydisturbingimplications.Alreadytheapp
hasbeenusedbyaStPetersburgphotographertosnapandidentifypeopleonthecitys
metro,aswellasbyonlinevigilantestouncoverthesocialmediaprofilesoffemaleporn
actorsandharassthem.

ButtheFindFaceappisreallyjustashopwindowforthetechnology,thefounderssaid.There
isapaidfunctionforthosewhowanttomakemorethan30searchesamonth,butthisis
moretoregulatetheserversfromoverloadratherthantomakemoney.Theybelievethereal
money-spinnerfromtheirface-recognitiontechnologywillcomefromlawenforcementand
retail.Thetechnologycanworkwithanyphotographicdatabase,thoughitcurrentlycannot
useFacebook,becauseeventhepublicphotographsarestoredinawaythatisharderto
accessthanVkontakte,theappscreatorssay.

KukharenkoandKabakovhaverecentlyreturnedfromtheUS,andKabakovwasduetotravel
toMacauandpresentthetechnologytoacasinochain.Thepairclaimtheyhavebeen
contactedbypoliceinRussianregions,whotoldthemtheystartedloadingsuspectorwitness
photographsintoFindFaceandcameupwithresults.Itsnuts:therewerecasesthathad
seennomovementforyears,andnowtheyarebeingsolved,saidKabakov.

ThestartupisinthefinalstagesofsigningacontractwithMoscowcitygovernmenttowork
withthecitysnetworkof150,000CCTVcameras.Ifacrimeiscommitted,themugshotsof
anyoneintheareacanbefedintothesystemandmatchedwithphotographsofwantedlists,
courtrecords,andevensocialnetworks.

Itdoesnottakeawildimaginationtocomeupwithsinisterapplicationsinthisfieldtoofor
exampleauthoritarianregimesabletotagandidentifyparticipantsinstreetprotests.Kabakov
andKukharenkosaidtheyhadnotreceivedanapproachfromRussiasFSBsecurityservice,
butiftheFSBweretogetintouch,ofcoursewedlistentoanyofferstheyhad.

Thepairalsohavebigplansfortheretailsector.Kabakovimaginesaworldwherecamerasfix
youlookingat,say,astereoinashop,theretailerfindsyouridentity,andthentargetsyou
withmarketingforstereosinthesubsequentdays.
Again,itsoundsalittledisturbing.ButKabakovsaid,asaphilosophygraduate,hebelieveswe
cannotstoptechnologicalprogresssomustworkwithitandmakesureitstaysopenand
transparent.

Intodaysworldwearesurroundedbygadgets.Ourphones,televisions,fridges,everything
aroundusissendingreal-timeinformationaboutus.Alreadywehavefulldataonpeoples
movements,theirinterestsandsoon.Apersonshouldunderstandthatinthemodernworld
heisunderthespotlightoftechnology.Youjusthavetolivewiththat.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/19/201604:20:37PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[AVERYRICHLATEAFTERNOON/ESTRUN][PETE/B]ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944TheMonsterUnderThe
Subject:
Kremlin......[PAUL/B]NYTOP-ED:RussiaIsTryingtoWipeOutCrimeasTatars.....[ANT/F]InterestingTakeonNATO/EUExpansion...
Attachments: My_Past_and_Identities__en.pd.pdfhimka.pdf

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,May19,20163:36PM
Subject:Fwd:[AVERYRICHLATEAFTERNOON/ESTRUN][PETE/B]ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944TheMonster
UnderTheKremlin......[PAUL/B]NYTOP-ED:RussiaIsTryingtoWipeOutCrimeasTatars.....[ANT/F]InterestingTakeonNATO/EU
Expansion...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at6:35PM
Subject:[AVERYRICHLATEAFTERNOON/ESTRUN][PETE/B]ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944The
MonsterUnderTheKremlin......[PAUL/B]NYTOP-ED:RussiaIsTryingtoWipeOutCrimeasTatars.....[ANT/F]Interesting
TakeonNATO/EUExpansionFromHUFM.....CliffK:Ondopes,dopingandtheRU-IRnukethreat....MikeyAverko:Giving
Vlad'sViewpointYetOnceAgain.......[TH]RemarkableTapeAboutWarinUA.....[R
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at2:45PM
Subject:ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

RemembersYetAnotherGenocidebyRussia

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/crimean-tatars-much-more-1944-104521457.html

ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944More

Kiev,Ukraine-TherearefewerandfewersurvivorsoftheCrimeanTatardeportationsaroundtotelltheirstories,but
TamilaTashevaandhercolleagueshavebeenabletocollectsome.

Tashevaisaco-founderofCrimeaSOS,anactivistgroupthatprovideslegal,psychologicalandhumanitarian
assistancetoCrimeanTatarsandotherswhohavefledthepeninsula,wheretheMuslimTatarsmakeupabout13
percentofthepopulation,sinceitwasannexedbyRussiainMarch2014.

TocommemorateUkraine'sfirst-everofficialdayofremembranceoftheCrimeanTatardeportationsin1944,
CrimeaSOSorganisedanexhibitionofportraitsandthestoriesof10survivors.

In1944,StalinorderedthemassdeportationofCrimeanTatars,allegingthattheyhadcollaboratedwiththeNazis
despitethefactthattensofthousandshadservedintheRedArmy.

Around180,000weredeportedinsealedtrainstoCentralAsiaandSiberia.Thousandsdiedduringthejourney,and
nearlyhalfperishedfromstarvationanddiseasewithinthefirstfewyearsofexile.

Thesurvivorsandtheirdescendantsweren'tallowedtoreturntoCrimeauntilthe1980s.

'Theywereeatenbyjackals'
"Irememberthestoriesmygreat-grandmotherwouldtellme,"Tashevatoldreportersattheopeningoftheexhibitionat
UkrainianHouseincentralKiev.

"Themoretimegoesby,thefewerchanceswehavetohearaboutwhathappenedin1944fromthelipsofsurvivors
themselves."

Amongthestoriesfrom1944thatTashevaandothershavecollectedisSaiid's.

Hewasabouttoturn10whensoldiersknockedonthedoorofhisfamily'shomeinYevpatoriainthemiddleofthenight.

"Weweretoldthatwewerebeingevictedandwehad15minutestogetreadytoleave,"herecounted.

"Weboardedboxcars-therewere60peopleineach,butnooneknewwherewewerebeingtakento.Tobeshot?
Hanged?Tearsandpanicweretakingover."

WATCH:Comingback-thestoryoftheCrimeanTatarsandtheirstruggletoreturnhome

Forsome,thejourneywouldbedeadly.

"Wespent18daysonthetrain[toUzbekistan],"recalledRadife,awomaninher80s."Wehadonebigkettleanda
waterbailerfordrinking."

Munire,a93-year-oldwomanfromBakhchysarai,saidthatwhilenoonediedinhercarriage,thatwasn'tthecasein
others.

"Wedidn'tevenhavetimetoburythemonthestops,sodeadpeoplewerejustleftthere."

But,formany,theworstwasstilltocome.

Nijar,fromasmallvillageincentralCrimea,describedtheconditionsinsidetheformerprisonbarrackswheremany
werehousedwhentheyfirstarrivedinUzbekistan.

"Therewereunsanitaryconditionseverywhere,"shesaid."Wehadsevenoreightbodieseveryday.

"Whenwehadnostrengthtoburythem,theywereeatenbyjackals."

'Alessonforthefuture'
RustamGafuri,thedeputygrandmuftiofUkraineandaCrimeanTatar,saysthatthesearethetypesofstoriesthat
needtobetoldifpeoplearetounderstandtheCrimeanTatars'past-andtheirfuture.

AtAr-RahmaMosque,theUkrainiancapital'sonlymosque,Gafuridescribeswhathebelievestobehismissionasa
CrimeanTatarcommunityandreligiousleader.

"Ourtaskistoshowourculturetootherpeople,"heexplainsinslow,measuredRussian."Itistotrytoteachour
culture,thehistoryofourpeople,ourtraditionallanguage,topeoplefromothercountriessothattheybecomefamiliar
withit."

ForGafuri,thedestructionofCrimeanTatarbooks,manuscriptsandmosquesbytheSovietsafter1944underlinesthe
needtorememberandsharestoriesaboutlifebeforethedeportations.

"Weneedtounderstandthatmemoryisnotjustaboutrememberingwhathashappened,"hesays."Tous,memoryis
alessonforthefuture."
'Myfamilyisafraid'
YoungCrimeanTatarslikeSabinatakelessonslikethesetoheart.

SabinahaslivedinKievforninemonths,butherfamilyisstillinSimferopol,Crimea'scapital.Shereturnstovisitthem
-infact,shewasthereduringUkraine'searlyMayholidays-butsaysthatsheandherfamilyhaven'tfeltcomfortable
sincetheRussianannexationofthepeninsulainMarch2014.

"Myfamilyisafraidtosayanything,"saysSabina,whoaskedthatherlastnamenotbepublished."Theyareafraidto
talkloudlyaboutproblems,aboutCrimeanTatarissuesandthingslikethat."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at2:41PM
Subject:TheMonsterUnderTheKremlin
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

InPutin'sRussia,EveryDayCanBeValentine'sDay!

http://www.rferl.org/content/the-monster-under-the-kremlin/27744522.html

ThePowerVertical

TheMonsterUnderTheKremlin
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(cartoonofthedaybySergeyElkin,RFE/RL)

ByBrianWhitmore

May19,2016

A tfirstglance,themassiveshoot-outatMoscow'sKhovanskoyeCemeterythispastweekend
seemedprettyretro.

What,afterall,remindsusmoreofthe1990sthanrivalRussiangangsstagingadeadlybrawlina
turfwarovercontrolofthelucrativeburialbusiness?Whatismorereminiscentofthegratuitous
violenceandlawlessnessofthefirstpost-Sovietdecadethanashootinggalleryamidthe
tombstones?

"ThewildRussian'90s,repletewithmurders,racketeering,andcriminal-fueledchaos,areback,"the
magazineTheAmericanInterestopinedonitsMafiaStateWatchblog,addingthatRussian
leaderVladimir"PutinhaslongboastedthathealonewasabletohelpRussiagetoverthis
tumultuousperiod,andthathealonecouldguaranteestabilityforanunlimitedamountoftime."

Butinadditiontogivingusablastfromthepast,theshowdownatMoscow'slargestcemeteryalso
gaveus--perhaps--aglimpseofthefuture.

BecausePutinneverendedthegangsterismofthe1990s,hejustnationalizedit.

AndnowtheKremlin'sgripmaybeslipping.

IfBorisYeltsin'sRussiaoftenresembledamafiamasqueradingasacountry,itwasamafiarunbya
weak,feeble,andfrequentlyinebriatedgodfather.This,ofcourse,wasarecipeforchaos,asitgave
Yeltsin'scaposandunderbossesalotofleeway,whichtheyusedwithimpunity.

Putin,incontrast,sentaclearandearlymessagetotheunderworld:thestateisthebiggestgangin
townandallothersaresubordinatetoit.

Putin'sdealwiththecriminalunderworldwassimple:doyourgangsterstuff,butdon'tdoitinthe
opendon'tembarrasstheKremlinwiththenoisypublicshoot-outsthatwerethehallmarkofthe
1990s.

Andoh,bytheway,iftheKremlinneedsafavorsomeday,youhadbestbereadytooblige.

Theshoot-outinKhovanskoyeCemeteryviolatedPutin'sfirstcommandmenttotheunderworld.

Italsoexposedthesoftunderbellyoftheregimeitrevealedtherotthatformsthefoundationof
Putin'sPowerVertical.
Organizedcrimegroupsarecolludingwiththeauthoritiesandwithlawenforcementateverylevel.
Policeareoftenmoreconcernedwithtaxingtheillegalnarcoticstradethanfightingit.Andeven
thingslikecemeteriesareboundupinRussia'ssprawlingpolitical-bureaucratic-criminalweb.

Russianmediaquotedlawenforcementofficialsassayingthatthisweekend'sshoot-out--which
involvedenforcersfromtheNorthCaucasusattackingCentralAsianmigrantsworkingatthe
cemetery--wasrelatedtoturfwarsoverwhowouldcontrolburialplotsandmaintenanceworkatthe
cemetery.

Oneofthosearrestedwasapoliceofficer.Alsounderinvestigationisthecemetery'sdirector.And
oneofthemainsubjectsoftheinvestigationisRitual,astate-runfuneralagency.

"Thelanguageofthebanditized'90snolongerdescribestoday'spowerstructures,"journalistand
politicalanalystOlegKashinwroteinSlon.ru."Theintegrationbetweencriminalsandthe
authoritiesisonawholenewlevel,asarethestakes."

AndthemonsterundertheKremlinhasbeenrearingitsheadwithincreasingfrequency.

AwarningshotcamebackinNovember2010intheKrasnodarregionwiththe
horrificKushchevskayamassacre,inwhich12people,includingfourchildren,werekilledbya
gangledbyalocalmobbosswithclosetiestolocalpoliticiansandlawenforcement.

Thentherewasthehigh-profileassassinationofthelegendarygangsterAslanUsoyan,anold-
school"vorvzakone"whowasknownbythemoniker"DedKhasan,"indowntownMoscowin
January2013.

AndlastmonthinthevillageofIvashovkainSamaraOblast,therewastheslayingofAndreiGosht,a
formerseniorpoliceofficer,andfiveofhisrelatives--acaseRussianmediareportssuggested
wastiedtoorganizedcrime.

Whentheeconomicpiewasexpanding,itwaseasyfortheKremlintomanipulatethecriminal
underworldandkeepittameandwellfed.

Butthosedaysareover.Thepieisshrinkingandonlythebestconnectedcrimegroupsarethriving-
-andtherestaregettingrestless,andmorewillingtobreaktherules.

Theshoot-outattheKhovanskoyeCemeterymightjustbeaharbinger.

"It'sneithertheoppositionnorthebureaucracy,butthosewhoarewillingtodietoachievetheir
specificgoalswhoareshowinguswhatapotentialcivilwarinRussiacouldlooklike,"Kashinwrote
inhiscolumninSlon.ru.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PavloBandriwsky<pbandriwsky@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at3:26PM
Subject:Fwd:TodayNewYorkTimes:russia-is-trying-to-wipe-out-crimeas-tatars
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/opinion/russia-is-trying-to-wipe-out-crimeas-tatars.html?_r=1

RussiasufferedanunexpecteddefeatintheEurovisionSongContestonSaturdaywhenitssinger
cameinthird,whileUkraine,ofallcountries,tookfirstplace.

Toaddinsulttoinjury,Ukrainescontestant,Jamala,isofCrimeanTatardescent.Andshedidnt
singjustanysong,butasongaboutherpeoplesruthlessdeportationbySovietauthoritiesin1944,
whenmorethan230,000CrimeanTatars,anoverwhelmingmajorityofthepopulation,wereexiled
fromtheCrimeanPeninsula.Nearlyhalfdiedasaresultofthisethniccleansing.

RussianofficialscriticizedUkrainesvictoryasyetanotherexampleoftheWestspropagandaand
informationwaragainsttheircountry.Meanwhile,Europeisnodoubtfeelinggoodaboutitselffor
deliveringakarmicblowtoPresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussia,whoseannexationofCrimeain
2014andcontinuingwarinUkrainestillsting.

ButtheEurovisionvictorytookplaceintheworldofentertainment.Intherealworld,Russiais
escalatingitscrackdownontheCrimeanTatars,whonowmakeup12percentofCrimeaspopulation
aftertheSovietUnionallowedthedeportationsurvivorsandtheirdescendantstoreturnin1989.

OnApril26,RussiabannedtheCrimeanTatarslegislature,theMejlis,callingitanextremist
organization.OnMay12,theauthoritiesarrestedseveralTatars,includingIlmiUmerov,deputy
chairmanoftheMejlis.Activistssaythatmoresearchesandarrestsarelikelysoon.Thiswouldbea
particularlytone-deafmoveonRussiaspart,consideringthattheanniversaryofthe1944
deportationisthisweek.

ButifpasttreatmentoftheCrimeanTatarsisanythingtogoby,Russiaprobablyisntbotheredby
that.
TheCrimeanTatarshavealwaysbeeneasyscapegoatsforRussia.JosephStalinsjustificationfor
deportingthemwasthattheyhadsidedwithGermanyinWorldWarII.Itstruethatsomedid,
historianssay,eitherbecausetheywereforcedtobytheinvadingarmyorbecausetheybelievedthe
GermanswouldliberatethemfromtheSovietUnion.ButrecordsshowthatjustasmanyCrimean
Tatars,ifnotmore,didnotdefectduringthewar.ManyfoughtvaliantlyfortheRedArmy.

BrianGlynWilliams,ahistorianattheUniversityofMassachusettsatDartmouth,positsthatStalins
truemotivationwasntrevengebutinsteadplanstolaunchawaragainstTurkeytoretakelandthat
RussiahadlostduringWorldWarI.StalinwantedtoneutralizepotentialcollaboratorstheCrimean
Tatars,aMuslimTurkicpeople,wereprimesuspects.

TheCrimeanTatarssufferinggoesasfarbackas1783,whenRussiafirstconqueredandannexed
thepeninsulaandbeganforcingthemout.ForhundredsofyearsbeforeRussiatookcontrol,the
CrimeanTatarshadtheirownstate,theCrimeanKhanate.

CrimeanTatarsstillrefusetosubmittoRussianoccupation.Mostopposedthe2014annexation,and
theirleadershipcontinuestodemandCrimeasreunificationwithUkraine.

Russiahasnottakenkindlytothisdissent.RussianauthoritieshaveshutdownCrimeanTatar
media.Russianforceshaveraidedhomesandmosques,andharassedandimprisonedCrimeanTatar
activists,someofwhomhavedisappearedorbeenkilled.RussiahastriedtoblocktheCrimean
Tatarsfrompubliclycommemoratingthedeportationandhasevenre-exiledMustafaDzhemilev,
theCrimeanTatarspoliticalleader.

AccordingtoUkrainesForeignMinistry,about20,000CrimeanTatarshavefledthepeninsulasince
theannexation.Thisisdevastatingforapeoplewhospent45yearsbanishedfromtheirhomeland.
ManythoughttheyweredonewithRussiaonceandforallwhentheSovietUniondisintegratedand
CrimeabelongedtoUkraine.Fewpredictedthattheirnightmarewouldbeginanewin2014.

IftheCrimeanTatarsaretosurvive,Westerngovernmentsmustdomoretohelp.

ThefirststepistoformallyrecognizetheCrimeanTatarsastheindigenouspeopleofCrimea.
Ukrainefinallydidsotwoyearsago,andtheEuropeanParliamentlaterfollowed.Likewise,the1944
deportationshouldberecognizedasanactofgenocide.Ukraineofficiallydeclareditsoin2015andis
nowcallingonothergovernmentsandorganizations,includingtheUnitedNations,todothesame.

TheStateDepartmenthasissuedtheoccasionalnewsreleasedenouncingRussiastreatmentofthe
Tatars,butthisisnotenough.AfterRussia'sinvasionofCrimea,PresidentObamasignedexecutive
ordersoutliningthesanctionstheUnitedStateswouldapplyandthejustificationsforthem.These
shouldbeupdatedtociteRussiashumanrightsviolationsagainsttheTatars.TheUnitedStates
shouldalsopushforEuropeanUnionofficialstorenewsanctionsagainstRussiawhentheyexpireat
theendofJuly.NotdoingsowouldsignaltoMr.Putinthathecangetawaywithtramplingon
Ukrainessovereignty.

Inaddition,AmericanelectedofficialsshouldsupporttheStandforUkrainebill,introducedin
CongressinApril.ThelawwouldaffirmtheUnitedStatesrefusaltorecognizeRussiasannexationof
Crimea.Moresignificantly,itwouldpreventthepresidentfromliftingthesanctionslistedinthe
executiveordersuntilCrimeasstatushasbeenresolvedwithUkrainesapproval.

TheCrimeanTatarsaredoingalltheycantoresistthedestructionoftheirculture.Lastyear
activistspreventedfoodandpowercomingfromUkrainefromenteringthepeninsula.Theblockade
causedblackoutsbutdemonstratedhowdependentCrimeawasontheUkrainianmainland.Mr.
DzhemilevandotherCrimeanTatarleadersinUkrainefrequentlymeetwithforeignleadersand
appearinthenewsmedia.CrimeanTatarrepresentativesaretryingtomaketheircasetothe
UnitedNations.

Isanyonelistening?Theworlddoesnothaveagoodtrackrecordwhenitcomestoprotecting
indigenouspeoplesitisoftentooeagertosacrificethemforpoliticalexpediency.

TherearethosewhosaythatCrimeaisalostcausethatMr.Putinwillneverallowittobe
returnedtoUkrainebecauseRussiantiestothepeninsularuntoodeep.TheyforgetthatCrimea
belongedtotheCrimeanTatarsfirst,longbeforetheRussianEmpire,theSovietUnionandMr.
Putin.
ChristinaM.Paschyn,aninstructorofjournalismatNorthwesternUniversityinQatar,isthedirectorofthe
documentaryfilmAStruggleforHome:TheCrimeanTatars.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at4:02PM
Subject:HungarysMinisterofExternalEconomyandForeignAffairsPeterSzijjarto(interview)
To:

5/19/2016

Hungary'sForeignMinisterOnChina,NATOExpansion,andRefugeesAsWeapons
http://www.forbes.com/sites/anderscorr/2016/05/19/hungarys-foreign-minister-on-china-nato-expansion-and-refugees-
as-weapons/print/
HungarysMinisterofExternalEconomyandForeignAffairsPeterSzijjarto

...
Anders:IfinditinterestingthatyourpositiononNATOenlargementisfairlypositive.
Pter:Yeah,definitely.

Anders:IncludingGeorgiaandUkraine,whichisverycontroversialIthink.
Pter:OurpositionisthatNATOenlargementshouldcontinue,andEUenlargementshouldcontinueaswell.Wewere
absolutelyunsatisfiedanddisappointedwiththepositionofthePresidentoftheEuropeanCommissionsayingthat
thereisnotgoingtobeanyenlargementinthecomingfiveyears.Wehavenotauthorizedhimtosayanysuchthing.
Ourpositionisthatyes,bothNATOandEUenlargementshouldbecontinuedbecausewethinkthatbothNATOand
theEUcouldbemuchstrongerifenlargementcontinues.Themorewearethestrongerweare.Ifyoudontgivepositive
feedbacktothosecountrieswhohavebeenputtingmanyeffortsintomeetingtherequirementsofintegration,thentheirpeoplewill
asktheirgovernments,Whyhaveyoumadesomanyefforts?Whyhaveyoumadesomanyconcessionsiftheresnofeedback
fromtheotherside?Wewillendangerthestabilityofthesecountriesandwewillendangerthepoliticalsupportofthose
governmentsifyoudontgivethempositivefeedback.Iftheirpeoplecanaskthemwhyhaveyoumadesomanyeffortsifthereis
nopositivefeedback,thentheywillloseonthenextelections.Whyshouldwecauseharddaysanddifficultiesforthose
governmentsthatareactuallyinfavoroftransatlanticintegrationandEuropeanintegration?SoourpositionisthatNATOshouldbe
enlargedbyGeorgiaandMacedonia.WearehappywithMontenegro.AndwhenitcomestoUkraineitistheUkrainianpeople
whohavetodecideabouttheirfuture.

Anders:SomeoftheconcernthatIheardisthatexpansioncouldprovokeRussia.
Pter:YoumeanexpansiontoGeorgia.WeshouldnotforgetthatGeorgiaisthenumberonecontributortointernationalactionsof
NATO,whilenotbeingaNATOmember.Sowhenweaskfortheirsupportwehavetotakeintoconsiderationthatweshould
reciprocatesomehow.

Anders:IhaveseenthesameissueraisedaboutUkraine:thatenlargementofNATOorenlargementoftheEUintoUkraine
wouldsomehowprovokeRussia.

Pter:Inthisrespectmypositionisthatwemustimmediatelygiveavisa-freetravelregimetoUkraineandGeorgiaonbehalfof
theEU.Ifwedontgiveavisa-freeregimetothesecountriesthenitwillactuallytakeawaythecredibilityoftheEuropeanUnion
andEuropeanintegration.Becausetheyhavemetallthenecessaryrequirementsallofthem.Soifyoudontgivethemavisa-
freeregimenowthenwegivethemessagethatdespiteyourhavingmettherequirements,wecandecidewhetherwetakeyouor
not.And,thisissomethingthatweshouldntdo......

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at10:27AM
Subject:Dopes,Doping,andtheRussian-IranianNuclearThreat
To:"zarycky,wolodymyr"<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

Dopes,Doping,andtheRussian-IranianNuclearThreat
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/dopes-doping-and-the-russian-iranian-nuclear-threat/#comments

TheRussianshavebeendopingtheirathletes,butwearethedopes.InascandalworsethanfailingtodealwithISIS,theObama
administrationhasbeencaughtfacilitatingthenuclearbuildupsofRussiaandIran.ThelivesofmillionsofAmericansandIsraelis
hanginthebalance.

PlayingapivotalroleovertheyearsinAmericasdeclineandtherapidriseofRussiaandChinastandsHenryKissinger,theformer
secretaryofstatewhometforanhourwithDonaldJ.TrumponWednesday.KissingerhasalsoservedasatutortoHillary
Clintoninforeignaffairs.IwasveryflatteredwhenHenryKissingersaidIrantheStateDepartmentbetterthananybodyhadrun
itinalongtime,Mrs.ClintonremarkedduringoneoftheDemocraticdebates.

Whatsomeconservativeshavecynicallycalledtheinvisiblegovernment,asrepresentedbytheCouncilonForeignRelationsand
suchfiguresasKissinger,seemswell-positionedtocomeoutontopinNovembernomatterwhowins.

ForTheWashingtonPost,theRussiandopingscandalisasymptomofwhatweareupagainst,intermsofdeception.
ItseditorialnotesevidencethatRussianofficialsclandestinelycarriedoutadopingprogramattheSochi[Olympic]Gamesby
givingathletesperformance-enhancingdrugsandthentamperingwiththeirurinesamplestocoveritup.ButthoseOlympicGames
shouldhavecausedconcernforanotherandmoreimportantreason.Sovietsymbols,suchasthehammerandsickle,
weredisplayedwithprideduringtheopeningceremonyinRussia.PerhapstheRussianshadnotbrokenwiththeiroldSovietpast
asmanyintheintelligencecommunityhadbeenledtobelieve.

AftertheinvasionofUkraine,AirForceGeneralPhilipM.BreedloveacknowledgedtheU.S.hadbeentreatingRussiaasa
partneringlobalaffairs,andthatitwasabigmistake.

Havewebeenduped?Orarewethedopes?Orworse,hastheU.S.intelligencecommunitybeeninfiltratedbytheRussiansor
Russianagents?WhyisKissinger,asymbolofAmericasdecline,beinglookedtoasawisemanforthefuture?

Inthesportsscandal,thePostfoundaconnectiontotheFSB,thesuccessortotheKGBthatwasrunbyRussianPresident
VladimirPutin.Thepaperexplained,TheRussianFederalSecurityService,asuccessortotheKGB,reportedlytookpartinthe
dopingoperation,subvertingtheOlympicidealandsoilingoneoftheglobesmostprestigiousevents.ThePostaddedthisscandal
tomanyothers,includingthesiphoningoffofitsrichesbyMr.Putinscronies,theharassmentandmurderofMr.Putinsfoes,the
promotionofdishonestpropagandaandthewayRussiahassoughttoundermineUkrainewithviolence.RussiasbehaviorinSochi
makestheReaganproverbtrust,butverifyseemquaint.TherecanbenotrustingaslongasMr.Putinisincharge.

TheWashingtonPostquotingRonaldReagan?Thatmaybeafirst.

SoiftheRussianscheatedatsports,whataboutarmscontrolagreements?Weknowthattheyhavecheatedthereaswell.The
ObamaadministrationadmitsRussia'sviolationsoftheIntermediateNuclearForcesTreaty(INF),butwontdoanythingaboutit.

RatherthanconfrontRussia,PresidentObamawillvisitHiroshimatotalkaboutthedangersofnuclearweapons.Withoutsayingso
explicitly,thepurposeofthevisitistohighlighthowtheUnitedStatesendedWorldWarIIbyusingnucleararms.Thatissupposed
tobeablackmarkonourpast.

Yet,ourenemiesareintheprocessofbeingabletoturntheUnitedStatesintoagiantHiroshima.Sincedroppingthepretensethat
Russiaisourpartnerinforeignaffairs,ourtopgeneralshavebeenwarningrepeatedlythatRussiaismodernizingitsnuclear
arsenalandnowposesanexistentialthreat.Rep.DevinNunes(R-CA)haswarnedthattheU.S.intelligencecommunitybadly
misjudgedRussianintentions,failingtoanticipateRussianaggressioninEuropeandtheMiddleEast.Hecomparesthemagnitude
ofthisfailureofintelligencetothe9/11terroristattacksonAmericansoil.

FrankGaffneyoftheCenterforSecurityPolicyconfirmsthenucleardisadvantagewearefacing.HisinterviewwithDr.Mark
Schneider,SeniorAnalystwiththeNationalInstituteforPublicPolicy,ischilling.

AstheRussianthreatgrows,theadministrationhasbeencaughtlyingaboutthenucleardealwithIran.FrankGaffney,inhis
owncommentary,callsthisnationalsecurityfraud,notingthatObamasDeputyNationalSecurityAdvisorforStrategic
Communications,BenRhodes,andothersmanipulatedtheinexperience,incompetenceandsympathyfortheObamaagendaof
muchoftodaysmediaTheIrannuclearagreementwasatrick,adeceptiondesignedtofooltheAmericanpeopleandtheir
electedrepresentatives.AfewSenateRepublicanshavecalledforRhodestobefiredorforcedtoresignhispost.

Meanwhile,RussiandeliveryofS-300missilestoIranhasbeenconfirmed.Apro-Russianwebsiteisgleeful,noting,Thesingle
mostimportantaspectofthisdevelopmentisthefactthatboththeU.S.andIsraelareknowntobeconcernedthattheRussian
weaponswillpreventasurpriseairstrikeonIraniannuclearfacilities.

EnterRep.PeterKing(R-NY),whoconsideredSenatorTedCruz(R-TX)absolutelyunacceptableasapresidentialcandidate,
eventhoughCruzhadbeenintheforefrontofdemandingthattheadministrationholdRussiaaccountableforitsviolationsofthe
INFtreaty.

KingsaysheiswillingtobackTrump,eventhoughhesaystheNewYorkbusinessmanhasengagedinaromancewiththe
Russianleader.Istillhaverealquestionswithhimasfarasnationalsecurityisconcerned,KingtoldCBSsFacetheNationon
May15.

KinghadotherconcernsaboutTrump,saying,Idon'tthinkhisAsianpolicyiscoherent,because,again,ifhedoeswanttogetin
atradewarwithChina,hehastoexplainhowthatcoincideswithhimwantingtouseChinaagainstNorthKorea.Ifhewantsto
haveleverageoverChina,howcanhebetalkingabouttakingtroopsoutofJapanandKorea?Doesheknowthatitcostsmoreto
takethetroopsoutthantoleavethemthere?AnddoesherealizethatthatwouldjustweakenourleverageagainstChina?

Onthesameprogram,RobertGates,theformerU.S.secretaryofdefense,said,Youcan'thaveatradewarwithChinaandthen
turnaroundandaskthemtohelpyouonNorthKorea.IhavenoideawhathispolicywouldbeintermsofdealingwithISIS.I
worryalittlebitabouthisadmirationforVladimirPutin.

MichaelHayden,theformerdirectoroftheCIAandNSA,sayshejustcantvoteforTrump,citinghisstandsonvarioussecurity-
relatedissuesandlackofdepthonforeignpolicy.HehadpreviouslystatedthatformerSecretaryofStateClinton,wholiedabout
Benghazi,isbetterpreparedthanTrumpforthepresidency.

ButwhyisHaydensjudgmentworthanything?Theintelligencecommunityheranandrepresentshasbeenadisaster.AsRep.
Nunesindicated,theCIAdidntanticipateRussiansrearmamentandmilitaryaggression.Whatsmore,theNSAwasinfiltratedby
analystEdwardSnowden,whostoleoveronemillionsecretdocumentsandhandedthemovertoourenemies.

WiredmagazinepublishedaphotoofSnowdenandHaydenatagalatogetherin2011.

Morerecently,theformerheadoftheDefenseIntelligenceAgency(DIA),Lt.Gen.MichaelT.Flynn,wasphotographedsitting
nexttoPutinataMoscowgalahonoringtheMoscow-fundedpropagandachannelRT(RussiaToday).Flynnisnowanadviserto
Trump.

Russiahasbeencaughtdopingitsathletes,butthemoredangerousformofdopingconsistsofthedopesintheU.S.intelligence
communitywhomisjudgedtheRussiansandnowrunaroundmasqueradingasexpertsandwritingbooksonintelligence.Whereis
theaccountabilityforthesemassivefailuresofintelligence?Whohasbeenfired?

WriterErikShillingnotesthat,inJuly,thepresumedpresidentialnomineesDonaldTrumpandHillaryClintonwillget
intelligencebriefings,featuringseveralhoursoftopsecretinformation

Mrs.Clintonsreputationasasecurityriskiswell-known.DonaldTrumpsromancewithPutinhasbeenacknowledgedand
criticizedbyoneofhiscongressionalsupporters.

AsmyoldfriendJimmyfromBrooklynsays,Itsamazingwevelastedthislong.

Inthiscontext,itissignificantthatTrump,whosaysheopposesglobalism,metWednesdaywiththetopglobalist,former
SecretaryofStateKissinger,amentortoMrs.Clinton.

IthasbeenreportedthatKissingerssecretivefirm,KissingerAssociates,Inc.,doesbusinessinRussia.WeknowthatTrumphas
beenlookingatbusinessopportunitiesinRussiasincetheSovietdays.Sotheyshouldgetalongwell.Inhisintroductiontothe
2002book,TheNewRussianDiplomacy,byRussianofficialIgorS.Ivanov,KissingerdiscussedhowRussiaandtheU.S.have
arareopportunitytoworktogetherinbuildinganewinternationalsystem.DespiteRussianaggressioninEuropeandtheMiddle
East,thatappearstobeTrumpsapproach.

Mrs.ClintonsRussianresetbackfired,butTrumpispreparedtotryitagain.Americafirst?Dontbetonit.
KincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at4:46PM
Subject:CoveringRussia[ED:....."ANDNOWAWORDFROMYOURRTSPONSOR"......][Putin'sUSMouthpiece
athisbest]
To:

Re:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/17/stalin-vodka-and-nuclear-weapons-how-not-to-write-about-
russia

PostedatRussiaInsiderwithsomecriticalremarks-

http://russia-insider.com/en/stalin-vodka-and-nuclear-weapons-how-not-write-about-russia/ri14392

TheGuardianpostedsourcewrotethisaboutthereductionofRussiangovernmentfundingforEnglishlanguage
media:

http://nobsrussia.com/2016/05/18/rt-and-sputnik-commentators-may-be-replaced-by-homeless-men-due-to-
budget-cuts/

AVladmirFrolovisdescribedasbeingsomeoneinchargewithgettinglowerpricedsourcesfortheRussian
governmentfundedEnglishlanguagevenues.

IshethesameVladimirFrolovwhousedtohost/moderatetheRussiaProfilePanelofExperts?

Ifso,it'sfurtherobviouswhytheEnglishlanguagecoverageofRussiacontinuestolack.Theconstructivelycritical
pro-Russianadvocateswho'refamiliarwithFrolov'sviews(asexpressedinTheMoscowTimesandelsewhere)
understandthispoint-havingtodowithhiscriticismsofRussiafrequentlymeshingwithneolibtoneocon,toflatout
anti-Russianleaningperspectives.Ideally,theRussiangovernmentfundedmediaconsultanthasaviewmoreinline
withtheRussiangovernment(thanFrolov),whileunderstandingtheEnglishlanguagemassmediasituation.

Offhand,Ican'tvouchforalloftheclaimsmadeinthelastlinked(fromthetop)article.Notwithstanding,theredoes
seemtobeadiscountedsituationatplay.Forexample,RT'sCrossTalkisstillpresentedasthatstation'sflagship
show.Yet,ithasbeencutfrom5to3showsaweek.ImaginealeadingAmerican24/7TVnewsnetworksuddenly
cuttingbackitstoprated5dayaweekshowto3.

Unlessthingshavereallygottenbad(whichIdon'tbelievetobeso),it'sanextremeabsurdityofadivetogofrom
payingbiggerbucksforaseasonedindividual,toahomelesspersonwithnoexperience,asdescribedinthelast
linkedpiece(givingoneselfthebenefitofdoubtthatthepresentationinquestionmightnotbeaccurate).

MichaelAverko-http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/michael-averko/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:TarasHunczak<thunczak@andromeda.rutgers.edu>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at4:36PM
Subject:FW:Fw:NotyourWar
To:TarasHunczak<thunczak@andromeda.rutgers.edu>

Averytouchingvideo

From:MartaBorowyk[mailto:kotsuryk@verizon.net]
Sent:Thursday,May19,201612:50PM
To:Undisclosedrecipients:
Subject:Fwd:Fw:NotyourWar

OnWednesday,May18,20161:39PM,UlanaZinych<uzinych@comcast.net>wrote:

Thiswassenttomebyfriends.Idonotpersonallyknowtheindividualsaboutwhomthisvideo
isdonebutthoughtyoumightliketowatch.SoundslikeVakarchuksinging,butnotsure

MycousinMarta'shusband,Taras,whojustcamebackfromayearonthefront,sentthisvideoabouthisplatoon(rota).
Itwasmadebyoneofhisfriends,whopiecedtogethervideosnipsfromthemembersoftheplatoonandadded
photographsandmusic.Whilenotofgoodtechnicalquality,itcapturesthegrimnatureofwar.ClickontheGooglelink
givenbelow.

Ihor

.mp4

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:<romashka1@aol.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at10:46AM
Subject:Himka[TalesofaHolodomorDoubter.....ifnotoutrightDenier....]
To:wzarcusur@gmail.com,thunczak@andromeda.rugers.edu

JustthoughtyoumayfindreadingHimka'sautobiographicalstatementsinteresting.Identifiesself/as'orthodoxMarxist'....

[SEEATTACHMENT]

From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/16/201607:06:58PM
To: May,Matthew<Matthew.May@ona.gov.au>
Subject: Re:ItembyGlebPavlovsky-Worddocument[SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

AgreewithallthatMatt.IhaveanemailsomewherefromLukianov--beforehebecamesuchaBigCheese--comparingPutin's
RussiatorepublicanRomei.e.Dynasticism.

SentfrommyiPad

On17May2016,at10:57,May,Matthew<Matthew.May@ona.gov.au>wrote:

Thanksforthis,

Indeedbothveryhelpfulcomments.IwasstruckbySF'sreferencetotheabsenceofdynasticism.Onthefaceofit,
thisseemstobetrueofPutin'soffspringtosomeextent(though,ifyouconsidertheirpartners,thingsbecomea
bitcloudier),butitseemslikemostoftherestoftheeliteareputtingtheirchildreninpositionstodevelopthe
financialcloutandconnectionstoatleastbeseniorplayersasthecurrentgenerationtiresoutpresumablywith
hopethattheirownchildwillultimatelywin.Whetherthatconstitutesdynasticismorjustaprivilegedclass
reproducingitself,astheydoprettymucheverywhere,I'mnotsure.

Ongoldeneggs,oil,andgas,Iwonderifstationarybanditsshouldhavedonemoretoavoidthesectoral
stagnationthat'sbeenemergingsincearound200910.Ontheotherhand,ofcourse,Putinhastobalancethe
activitiesandambitionsofpeoplewhosecapacityforforesight(orstationarity)varieswildly.


Cheers,
Matt.


From:KyleWilson[mailto:wilsonkyle81@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,17May201610:15AM
To:dfrwall@gmail.comMeyer,GarethMay,Matthew
Subject:Fwd:ItembyGlebPavlovsky-Worddocument

UsefulcommentbySF.

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
Subject:Re:ItembyGlebPavlovsky-Worddocument
Date:17May20168:48:29amAEST
To:"segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de"<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>
Cc:JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,"phill_hanson@outlook.com"
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>,"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,
"ErcFried@aol.com"<ercfried@aol.com>,"RichardConnolly"<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>,
"keith.bush017@gmail.com"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,"silvana.malle@univr.it"
<silvana.malle@univr.it>,"rodericlyne@hotmail.com"<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,
"rghorvath@yahoo.com"<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,"rqbraithwaite@mac.com"
<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,"teagueeliza@aol.com"<teagueeliza@aol.com>,"Ian@cer.org.uk"
<ian@cer.org.uk>,"wilsonkyle81@gmail.com"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,
"bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk"<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"<hansonphl@aol.com>

Klaus,
Aninterestinganalysis.I'moneofthosefewwhohavebeeninterestedinthetorgianalysessincetheyfirstappeared.
Animportantcontributionwasthe1987articlebyAven(PetrAvennowofAlphafame)andShironin,intheIzvestiia
oftheSiberianAcademyofSciences.AndofcoursetherewereWesternantecedents(whetherinfluencesornot,I
don'tknow)instudiesoftheinformalaspectsoftheSovieteconomy(weknewabouttolkachiaverylongtimeago)
andevenpluralistapproachestostudyingtheSovietUnion.
Myinterestwas,likeyours,intheformalvsinformalaspectsofeconomicmanagementandpoliticalrule,notleast
becausewearetold-notentirelywithoutjustification-thatformalityhelps/makespossiblemodernisation.Butas
Olsonhelpedusunderstandinhisotherevenbetterknownwork,formalityisalsousedbyspecialintereststopursue
theirownnarrowgoalsandcanbecomeaseriousbarriertoprogress.That'ssomethingPutinisveryawareof,and
he'salwaystryingtofindtherightbalance.
Butasimportantasthatstillis,formanyit'snotthekeyissueinRussiatoday.Thetorgianalystswerejusttryingto
modifythe'standard'viewofthecentrallyplannedsystem.It'sawhilesinceI'vereadthem,butIhopeI'mrightin
sayingthattheywereinterestedininformalwaysofpursuingcollectivegoals,notinthepursuitofpersonalgoals,that
is,theywerenotinterestedincorruption,greed,banditry.Nowwehavetobe,whichiswhyyouturntorovingvs
stationarybandits.It'struethatthecurrentelitearen'trovingbandits-perhapsasmuchthroughforceof
circumstanceasdesire.Yousuggest,though,thattheyaren't-ordon'tbehavelike-stationarybandits.Stationary
bandits,becausetheyarestationary,havetoshowsomebenevolentcarefortheirpatrimony,soitwillendure.
Incidentally,ifIrememberOlsonrightly(perhapsIdon't),oneofthekeyincentivesforthebanditsastheysettled
downinoneplacewastoprovideamoresecureandeconomicallyefficient'kingdom'fortheiroffspring.Although
thereisplentyofnepotisminRussia,therearenosignsofdynasticism(astherewerenotintheSovietUnion).
Butevenwiththattakenintoaccount,isitreallytruethattheRussianelite-whilenolongerrovingbandits-have
noneofthe'benevolent'characteristicsofstationarybandits,whichiswhatIthinkyouareclaiming?Here,asalways,
wearetalkingaboutPutin.Asheoncesaid,'wedon'twanttodestroythegoosethatlaysthegoldeneggs'.That
wasspecificallyrelatingtotheoilandgassectors,butIthinkitcouldbeappliedtosocietymorebroadly.Heshows
akeenawarenessoftheneedtokeepsocietyfunctional,tosustainitselfandproviderentforhimselfandhiscronies.
Healsodevotesalotofattentiontochannelingtheactivitiesofhishighlyrapaciouscroniestowardsthatend.I'mnot
claimingforamomentthatPutinisademocrathighlyresponsivetotheelectorateorevenatrulybenevolentautocrat
-that'snotthenatureofstationarybandits.Youdojustenoughtokeepsocietyself-sustainingandrent-providing.
Now,whetherhe'llevenmanagetopullthatoffisadifferentquestion,andIhavemydoubts.Butweneedto
recognisethattheeffortisbeingmade,andit'sthereinthepolicymakingprocess.Russia'snotjustabunchofroving
banditstryingtoworkoutwhattheydowhilestuckinoneplace.It'saverypolicy-orientedplaceinwhicha
bureaucraticjuggernautgrindsintoactionwheneveraproblemisidentified.
Youprobablyknowthatthere'sbeenalotofsomewhathopefulinterestinRussiainrecenttimesinNorthetalon
LimitedAccessOrders,becauseitalsodescribeshowotherwiserapaciousandviolentelitescometoworktogether
toproducesomethingapproachingabenign,productivesociety.
IhopethatinmyramblingsIhaven'tdriftedtoofarawayfrom-anddonetoomuchviolenceto-yourideas.
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On14May2016,at07:26,klaussegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>wrote:

hello,

pavlovskiiisre-applyingananalysisthatfirstwasusedbyvitalii
naishulandsimonkordonskiiintheearly1990's,basedontheapproachof
administrativemarket(s)intheussr.thiswasbasicallyusinga
neo-instituinalapproachforanalyzingtheinformalproceedingsof
verticalandhorizontalbargainingbetweenpersonswhoheldbotha
function,andarole.p.relabelsit(sistema),butitsbasicallyhe
same.whathecal'curators'werethemiddlemen,ortolkachi,informer
analyses.

thswesternspecialistswhowereawareoftheseworks(nottoomany)were
veryinterestedinassessingif,andhow,thissystemwaschanginginthe
1990's.wastheadministrativemarketgraduallyreplacedbyarealone
(symbolizedbytheincreasingroleofmoney),andwerethehedging
strategiesofsovietpeopleagainstthevolatilityofthesovietsystemof
distribution(hoarding,andshiftingstuffbetweenapartments,garages,
anddachi)continuing,orgivingspacetorelyingonthenewprivate
storeswhereprettymucheverythingwasavailable,formoneyofcourse?

ibelongedtothoseassumingthatchangewasmaterializing.oneimportant
toolforthinkingthiswaywasmancurolson'simportantwrkonrovingvs.
stationarybandits.onlywhenrovingbandits(theamericanrailwaybarons,
earlyeuropeantradinghouses,therussianoligarkhs),grabbigwhatever
wasupforgrabs,werereconsideringtheirinterests,switchingformsome
kindofwildaccumulationtowardprotectingwhattheyhadcollected,
institutionalizationandsomeearlyformsoftransparencyandrechtsstaat
couldbeimplemented.

forashortwhile,thisseemedtobethecaseafter1998.butthis
assumptionturnedouttobewrong.thefailedbusinessmodelofa
petro-stateremainedun-challenged.thecorrespondingformofgovernance
(ahighlyinformalwayofdefiningandtradingtorgi)remainedinplace.
meaningfulmodernizationwasavoided.aewambitiousrepsofmiddle
classeswerepunishedinanexemplaryway.thesoviet-styleofasystemas
amodeofpermanentemergencies,providingeasytargetsforblaming
domesticandexternalactorsforallfailures,wasreactivated.

andnow,thereisnoviablyexitstrategyfortheozerogroup.insteadof
apeacefulretirement,cushionedbyalltheaccumulatedassets,theremay
betheunfriendlyexitinthestyleofofceaucescu,andgaddafi.to
preventthis,thecoregroupofozeroisdoomedtohangon,andon,and
on.

withhisregimetherecannotbeawayofpeacefulco-existence(andjust
maybeco-existancebasedonmutualignorance,andmaybecontempt).the
russianelitesarenotoriousspoilers,violatorsofrulesandnorms,and
fullofcomplexesabouttheirownroleandpotential.

therecannotbearussianstrategy,becausetheirstyleofgovernanceis
freeofcontent-besidestoguaranteetheirownsurvival.sovolatility
andcontradictionsarenottheexception,buttheruleofthiswayof
ruling.

inabroaderwas,thisrussianmodelfitsintotheglobaltrendof
increasingwavesofpopulism.trumpcumsanderspromisesimplesolutions
forcomplexproblems.butthisislesssurprisingthanthehugedemandfor
exactlythis.thesamegoesfororbanandkaczynski.forlpenand
wilders.now,alsofordenmark,sweden,austriaandthegermanafd.the
riseofpopulismonaglobalscalenarrowsthespacesfortherespective
governmentsforcompromisessignificantly(likeintheeucaseoftrying
tocopewiththemigrants'crises).thiscanbenicelymodeledbyrobert
putnam's'twolevelgame'model.

whilethereisnoeconomyofshortageanymoreinrussia,andlesssoft
biegetconstraints,andmorerealvalueofmoney,theunderlyingsystem-
sistema-oftorgiseemstobefirmlyinplace.butonthisbasis,we
cannotreinventthecoldwarlogicofco-existence,andofmutual
deterrence,andofinteractingepistemiccommunities,becausethereseems
tobenoviablewayforeffectivemodernizationoftherulingozerogroup.
theyareinsurvivalmode-problematicconditionforareliablepartner.

ks

professorforpoliticalscience
freieuniversitt/freeuniversityofberlin
director,centerforglobalpolitics

adjunctprofessor
columbiauniversity,sipaandharrimaninstitute
newyork,n.y.10027,usa

segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de
ks2623@columbia.edu

mail:garystr.55,d-14195berlin
phone:+49(0)3083852088
fax+49(0)3083853616

urlhttp://pol.oei.fu-berlin.de/
urlhttp://global-politics.org
urlhttp://www.segbers.eu

ThisemailremainsthepropertyoftheOfficeofNationalAssessmentsandisanexemptdocumentundertheFreedomof
InformationAct1982.Ifyouhavereceivedthisemailinerror,youarerequestedtodeleteallcopiesandnotifyitsa@ona.gov.au

From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/16/201605:13:17PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:ItembyGlebPavlovsky-Worddocument

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
Subject:Re:ItembyGlebPavlovsky-Worddocument
Date:17May20168:48:29amAEST
To:"segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de"<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>
Cc:JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,"phill_hanson@outlook.com"
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>,"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,
"ErcFried@aol.com"<ercfried@aol.com>,"RichardConnolly"<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>,
"keith.bush017@gmail.com"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,"silvana.malle@univr.it"
<silvana.malle@univr.it>,"rodericlyne@hotmail.com"<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,
"rghorvath@yahoo.com"<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,"rqbraithwaite@mac.com"
<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,"teagueeliza@aol.com"<teagueeliza@aol.com>,"Ian@cer.org.uk"
<ian@cer.org.uk>,"wilsonkyle81@gmail.com"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,
"bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk"<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"<hansonphl@aol.com>

Klaus,
Aninterestinganalysis.I'moneofthosefewwhohavebeeninterestedinthetorgianalysessincetheyfirstappeared.
Animportantcontributionwasthe1987articlebyAven(PetrAvennowofAlphafame)andShironin,intheIzvestiia
oftheSiberianAcademyofSciences.AndofcoursetherewereWesternantecedents(whetherinfluencesornot,I
don'tknow)instudiesoftheinformalaspectsoftheSovieteconomy(weknewabouttolkachiaverylongtimeago)
andevenpluralistapproachestostudyingtheSovietUnion.
Myinterestwas,likeyours,intheformalvsinformalaspectsofeconomicmanagementandpoliticalrule,notleast
becausewearetold-notentirelywithoutjustification-thatformalityhelps/makespossiblemodernisation.Butas
Olsonhelpedusunderstandinhisotherevenbetterknownwork,formalityisalsousedbyspecialintereststopursue
theirownnarrowgoalsandcanbecomeaseriousbarriertoprogress.That'ssomethingPutinisveryawareof,and
he'salwaystryingtofindtherightbalance.
Butasimportantasthatstillis,formanyit'snotthekeyissueinRussiatoday.Thetorgianalystswerejusttryingto
modifythe'standard'viewofthecentrallyplannedsystem.It'sawhilesinceI'vereadthem,butIhopeI'mrightin
sayingthattheywereinterestedininformalwaysofpursuingcollectivegoals,notinthepursuitofpersonalgoals,that
is,theywerenotinterestedincorruption,greed,banditry.Nowwehavetobe,whichiswhyyouturntorovingvs
stationarybandits.It'struethatthecurrentelitearen'trovingbandits-perhapsasmuchthroughforceof
circumstanceasdesire.Yousuggest,though,thattheyaren't-ordon'tbehavelike-stationarybandits.Stationary
bandits,becausetheyarestationary,havetoshowsomebenevolentcarefortheirpatrimony,soitwillendure.
Incidentally,ifIrememberOlsonrightly(perhapsIdon't),oneofthekeyincentivesforthebanditsastheysettled
downinoneplacewastoprovideamoresecureandeconomicallyefficient'kingdom'fortheiroffspring.Although
thereisplentyofnepotisminRussia,therearenosignsofdynasticism(astherewerenotintheSovietUnion).
Butevenwiththattakenintoaccount,isitreallytruethattheRussianelite-whilenolongerrovingbandits-have
noneofthe'benevolent'characteristicsofstationarybandits,whichiswhatIthinkyouareclaiming?Here,asalways,
wearetalkingaboutPutin.Asheoncesaid,'wedon'twanttodestroythegoosethatlaysthegoldeneggs'.That
wasspecificallyrelatingtotheoilandgassectors,butIthinkitcouldbeappliedtosocietymorebroadly.Heshows
akeenawarenessoftheneedtokeepsocietyfunctional,tosustainitselfandproviderentforhimselfandhiscronies.
Healsodevotesalotofattentiontochannelingtheactivitiesofhishighlyrapaciouscroniestowardsthatend.I'mnot
claimingforamomentthatPutinisademocrathighlyresponsivetotheelectorateorevenatrulybenevolentautocrat
-that'snotthenatureofstationarybandits.Youdojustenoughtokeepsocietyself-sustainingandrent-providing.
Now,whetherhe'llevenmanagetopullthatoffisadifferentquestion,andIhavemydoubts.Butweneedto
recognisethattheeffortisbeingmade,andit'sthereinthepolicymakingprocess.Russia'snotjustabunchofroving
banditstryingtoworkoutwhattheydowhilestuckinoneplace.It'saverypolicy-orientedplaceinwhicha
bureaucraticjuggernautgrindsintoactionwheneveraproblemisidentified.
Youprobablyknowthatthere'sbeenalotofsomewhathopefulinterestinRussiainrecenttimesinNorthetalon
LimitedAccessOrders,becauseitalsodescribeshowotherwiserapaciousandviolentelitescometoworktogether
toproducesomethingapproachingabenign,productivesociety.
IhopethatinmyramblingsIhaven'tdriftedtoofarawayfrom-anddonetoomuchviolenceto-yourideas.
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On14May2016,at07:26,klaussegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>wrote:

hello,

pavlovskiiisre-applyingananalysisthatfirstwasusedbyvitalii
naishulandsimonkordonskiiintheearly1990's,basedontheapproachof
administrativemarket(s)intheussr.thiswasbasicallyusinga
neo-instituinalapproachforanalyzingtheinformalproceedingsof
verticalandhorizontalbargainingbetweenpersonswhoheldbotha
function,andarole.p.relabelsit(sistema),butitsbasicallyhe
same.whathecal'curators'werethemiddlemen,ortolkachi,informer
analyses.

thswesternspecialistswhowereawareoftheseworks(nottoomany)were
veryinterestedinassessingif,andhow,thissystemwaschanginginthe
1990's.wastheadministrativemarketgraduallyreplacedbyarealone
(symbolizedbytheincreasingroleofmoney),andwerethehedging
strategiesofsovietpeopleagainstthevolatilityofthesovietsystemof
distribution(hoarding,andshiftingstuffbetweenapartments,garages,
anddachi)continuing,orgivingspacetorelyingonthenewprivate
storeswhereprettymucheverythingwasavailable,formoneyofcourse?

ibelongedtothoseassumingthatchangewasmaterializing.oneimportant
toolforthinkingthiswaywasmancurolson'simportantwrkonrovingvs.
stationarybandits.onlywhenrovingbandits(theamericanrailwaybarons,
earlyeuropeantradinghouses,therussianoligarkhs),grabbigwhatever
wasupforgrabs,werereconsideringtheirinterests,switchingformsome
kindofwildaccumulationtowardprotectingwhattheyhadcollected,
institutionalizationandsomeearlyformsoftransparencyandrechtsstaat
couldbeimplemented.

forashortwhile,thisseemedtobethecaseafter1998.butthis
assumptionturnedouttobewrong.thefailedbusinessmodelofa
petro-stateremainedun-challenged.thecorrespondingformofgovernance
(ahighlyinformalwayofdefiningandtradingtorgi)remainedinplace.
meaningfulmodernizationwasavoided.aewambitiousrepsofmiddle
classeswerepunishedinanexemplaryway.thesoviet-styleofasystemas
amodeofpermanentemergencies,providingeasytargetsforblaming
domesticandexternalactorsforallfailures,wasreactivated.

andnow,thereisnoviablyexitstrategyfortheozerogroup.insteadof
apeacefulretirement,cushionedbyalltheaccumulatedassets,theremay
betheunfriendlyexitinthestyleofofceaucescu,andgaddafi.to
preventthis,thecoregroupofozeroisdoomedtohangon,andon,and
on.

withhisregimetherecannotbeawayofpeacefulco-existence(andjust
maybeco-existancebasedonmutualignorance,andmaybecontempt).the
russianelitesarenotoriousspoilers,violatorsofrulesandnorms,and
fullofcomplexesabouttheirownroleandpotential.

therecannotbearussianstrategy,becausetheirstyleofgovernanceis
freeofcontent-besidestoguaranteetheirownsurvival.sovolatility
andcontradictionsarenottheexception,buttheruleofthiswayof
ruling.

inabroaderwas,thisrussianmodelfitsintotheglobaltrendof
increasingwavesofpopulism.trumpcumsanderspromisesimplesolutions
forcomplexproblems.butthisislesssurprisingthanthehugedemandfor
exactlythis.thesamegoesfororbanandkaczynski.forlpenand
wilders.now,alsofordenmark,sweden,austriaandthegermanafd.the
riseofpopulismonaglobalscalenarrowsthespacesfortherespective
governmentsforcompromisessignificantly(likeintheeucaseoftrying
tocopewiththemigrants'crises).thiscanbenicelymodeledbyrobert
putnam's'twolevelgame'model.

whilethereisnoeconomyofshortageanymoreinrussia,andlesssoft
biegetconstraints,andmorerealvalueofmoney,theunderlyingsystem-
sistema-oftorgiseemstobefirmlyinplace.butonthisbasis,we
cannotreinventthecoldwarlogicofco-existence,andofmutual
deterrence,andofinteractingepistemiccommunities,becausethereseems
tobenoviablewayforeffectivemodernizationoftherulingozerogroup.
theyareinsurvivalmode-problematicconditionforareliablepartner.

ks

professorforpoliticalscience
freieuniversitt/freeuniversityofberlin
director,centerforglobalpolitics

adjunctprofessor
columbiauniversity,sipaandharrimaninstitute
newyork,n.y.10027,usa

segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de
ks2623@columbia.edu

mail:garystr.55,d-14195berlin
phone:+49(0)3083852088
fax+49(0)3083853616

urlhttp://pol.oei.fu-berlin.de/
urlhttp://global-politics.org
urlhttp://www.segbers.eu
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 05/16/201602:58:30PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

YourcommandofEnglishisunwieldy

From:Bob[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,May16,20165:56PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Re:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

Idon'tknowthatmany.............

SentfrommyiPad

OnMay16,2016,at5:52PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

Youreamanoffewwords!

From:Bob[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,May16,20165:52PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Re:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

SentfrommyiPad

OnMay16,2016,at5:04PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

Interesting,thanksforsharing.Afewreactions

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Thereare
twocontradictorynarratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.Yet
yousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounteritspropaganda-why?
nAsifthosearetheonlytwowaystodescribethesituation.


Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,
nThenwhatisitconservative?Especiallyifheacknowledgesthattheyreoverextended?

TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.
nThatsaratherstrongstatement.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerry
observes.MaybethisisthebestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoften
producesbadoutcomes.
nLetssee,theyveinvadedseveralneighbors,arethreateninguseofnukes,killingtheirown
critics,journalists,messingaroundinSyriaandmakingmattersworsethereyeah,thisisgreat.
Oh,andletsconfuseelectionswithdemocracy,whilewereatit.Whatanidiot.

TomGrahamsaysthesecurityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renot
wildrisk-takers.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasused
judiciously.TheywereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.
There'snorealisticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisk
tobenasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.Andthepeopleherein
theUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.
nIassumehemeansthemilitaryinthelastline.Idratherbesafethansorry.Andlowrisk?Is
Syrialowrisk?AndDonbasdidntturnouttoowelleither.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwe
haveisafailureofimagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehave
foreseenbothoftheseevents?
nIdontquiterecallAndysbrilliantpredictionsoftheseevents.

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshave
changedinRussia,300yearsofhistorytothecontrary.
nGorbydeservesmorecreditthanYeltsin,Idargue.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahas
goneaway.TheWestisseenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinister
Lavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotanexpansionistpower.Theyhaveazoneofprivileged
intereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingbymilitarymeans.Thesix
countriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspace
andinvitingunpredictableoutcomes.
nAndheworkedfortheNIC???!!!Oh,letsjustreengagePutinforwhatpurpose???

TomsRussia-Asiashtickisgettingold.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,May16,20161:03PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

N.B.remarkswereofftherecordpleasedonotforwardorotherwisedistribute:)

CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?

AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"new
normals."Atthesametime,wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Trump.

Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thave
foreseenPutin'spopularityashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'thave
expectedoilpricessolow.

Ourkeyquestions:
-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?
DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.The
flexibleexchangeratehasbeeneffective.
-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthefall.
-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextyear.
Returntofourpercentgrowth,however,isunlikely.
-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofcomprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikelyuntil
after2018elections.Nosecretaboutwhatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeaboutwhatto
do.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,forinstance.
Retoolingofindustryisunlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrecentlycreatedis
anopportunity.

MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstofthe
BRICSexceptforBrazil's.Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbeentwice
asbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanagedeffectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethistime
comparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthatthepopulationtookthe
bruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthiscrisis,whereas
publicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttothehighpolitical
supportthegovernmenthashad.
Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincreased.At
thesametime,theveryrichhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffective.
Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokeep
inflationdown.TheirapproachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They've
avoidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemiddle
incometrap?Don'tassumeitcan'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.Thehuge
leapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusinessrankingsshowsthatRussiacanimplement
neededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministrationforinstanceis
ratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslydiscussed.
Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionallystrong
correlationbetweensupportforPutinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.Political
supportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomiccrisishasbecomedeep.
Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshas
reachednewlows,andsupportforthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sowncharisma
andpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn'ttranslatedintoprotests,whichis"amazing,"
Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthantheywerein2010.This
isaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.

ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRussia'stight
fiscalpolicyin2015forhelpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthattheconsumerhas
bornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheoriesaboutwhypeoplehavehandledthiscrisisas
calmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionately,butthegovernment
hasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabilitytoattractinvestment.
Effortssofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuingintonextyear,
butgettingnevermuchabovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagnation.
Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroduceanew
fiscalrule?They'vecutalot,that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroomtocut
further.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchasraisingthepensionage.Theflattaxratemay
havetobeincreased.
Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclearhowitcan
escapethemiddleincometrap.Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,they'renot
protesting.

DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.Dmitriyevsays
Customsreformisabrightspot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offering
opportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughonanything,onanyreform,suchasjudicial
reform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensomemarginal
improvementshelpalot.

AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?

DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadeprogress,
judgingbyatleastanecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.

Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto,anditis
broadlysupportedacrossalmostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefthatitdoesn'tneedto
focusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.

Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreigninvestors
havebeentreatedfairlyduringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasintheautoindustry,which
isafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,Begunsays,Russiaisbeingpushedoutoftheglobal
supplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayerintheglobalsupplychain.What's
happeningtothemiddleclass?

Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsectoris
takinguptheslackwithbigprospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.Themortgage
marketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby1.5percentperyear.Thisisnotanunusual
rateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.

Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstandwhy
they'reimportant,butpracticallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportthem.

Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthattheelites
don'tneedorwantreform.Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenquestion.

AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.

GeneRumersaysheisatalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanelistsand
thepicturethatemergesfromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.

ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.But
theneteffectofthat"good"policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedbanks.This
underscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.

Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureaboutthesize
ofthestate.Thereareinfactmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthattelladifferent
story.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebankingsector.
Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem.But
atthesametimetheresultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.

WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.

HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitriyev
acknowledgesthatthewidespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.
Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalecis
askedaboutthecommunicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationis
takingplaceinvariouschannels.Sheacknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutback.
"Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."ThedecisionsonSyriaandonthe
NationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obamaand
KerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.

Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Is
machinerybeingbuiltuponeithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?

ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentatSea
mechanismisworking,moreorless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazennessfor
bravery."

Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontroliftheRussians
arelookingpastObama.RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrumpfor
president.

AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasonthe
informationfront,themilitaryreassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.

AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepartment
acceptRussia'soffertodiscussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedistanceslimitslaid
outtherein?

TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefine
theshorttermandlongtermgoals?

KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit'snot
unachievable.This(Putin)regimeisnotforever,afterall.
TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesand
counteringinformationaggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.Thereare
somethingswecouldaccomplish.MaybewecanextendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamay
turnouttobeaplusfortherelationship.

BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeeninthe
lead.Aretheymoreconfident?

KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountry
anditsissuesshouldbemanagedbytheEuropeans.
AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertotheUS.

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Thereare
twocontradictorynarratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.Yet
yousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounteritspropaganda-why?

Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses.She
pointsoutthatwenowdescribethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"soft").

AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?
Howdowekeeparelationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventuallyhewill
go.
SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?

Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.

WhydoweseeRussiaasparticularlyimportant?

InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrendsin
publicopinionandhighlightsthehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumbersdon't
havethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitivepoliticalsystem.Otherindicatorsareheading
downtopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.Theprotestmoodisnot
highandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroups--horizontallinksamong
protestgroupsaren'ttakingshape.

Thegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingislikelyto
beaseffectiveasCrimeawas.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyassociationwith
theaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmaypropuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit.

TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-
termfutureoftheSovietUnionandthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingto
happen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenweexplainthemafterthefact.Someofthat
analysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.Lookingatcurrent
trendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assomeearlier
speakershavenoted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweakanddivided.
ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomakethat
change?
Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromforeign
enemies.ThisisoneofPutin'smainjobs.
Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,people
thoughtthingswouldbegettingbetter.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.ThischallengesPutin's
abilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceservices,but
thereareothers.Thestand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.Thismakesit
harderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedprotests.
OnlyasmallnumberofsuchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'scontrol.
Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeen
undertakenjusttopropupPutin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeephis
popularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiaisoverextended.
IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesandlong
termcommitments.Therearegrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakeninto
account.
Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite."Ican
envisionascenariothatgetsustoaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoesn'tmeanthe
systemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosomechangesinpriority,butwon'tchangetheway
Russiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintotheWesterncommunity.We
willneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.

AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?Evenifanewleaderstarts
outfollowinginPutin'sfootsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwillbe
there.Itwillhavetochange,butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.

Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.We
shouldn'tfocusonjustthetoplayerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.Thismaynot
beaclassiccoupscenario.TherecouldbeaguaranteedarrangementbehindthescenesthatgetsPutin
tostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochangethesystemorthe
countrywillfallfartherbehind.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerry
observes.MaybethisisthebestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoften
producesbadoutcomes.

Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewho
thinkPutinistoosoft.RussiacouldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.

AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughabout
what'sgoingoninsidetherepublics,includingprotests?
Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.

AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"sofar
havebeenthefarright.Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikelythatthana
consensusforeconomicgrowth.

TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.Butthe
securityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-takers.Theyhad
plannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasusedjudiciously.Theywerenever
planningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'snorealisticreasonto
thinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisktobenasty.Butit'sunlikely
thatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.AndthepeoplehereintheUSwhowarnaboutan
aggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.

VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddeliberately
formaximumpopularity.Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumratings.

Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas,just
astheydidin1999.
It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothaveseenit
coming.

Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?

Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthat
protestnow?HowdoesitaffectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?

A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsentiment.
TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotestersas
non-Russian.TheKremlinismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthoseprotests
linkingupwithpoliticalprotests.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwe
haveisafailureofimagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehave
foreseenbothoftheseevents?

GeneRumerasksVolkov:Isitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdomestic
politicsareTV,andCrimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshave
changedinRussia,300yearsofhistorytothecontrary.

VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthemaindriver
ofdomesticpolitics(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobeseenhowlongpeople
willcontinuetosupporttheregime.PeoplebelievePutinwhenhesays"twoyears"forthecrisis.They
stilltrusthimaboutthis.AslongasthissupportcontinuestheeliteswillnotmoveagainstPutin.

GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivity,and
focusontheeconomy.ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,Russiaisnotthe
SovietUnion.
And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablyasoft
palacecoup.

ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesAleksey
ArbatovoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS.
From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.PutinresentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dcometo
powerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutinwasbeingauthoritarian,he
waspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includingarmscontrol,
hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcessionshewouldnot
gainrespectorequaltreatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmore.Sowhenhe
camebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytogetrespectwastochallengetheWest,eventhoughhe
hadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.Itwasaninternalaswell
asanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPutin.AndifUkraine
succeeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.ItwouldchallengethewholePutinregime.The
massprotestsof2011werethefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.InCrimea,hetookrevengeonthe
West.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defensethroughoffense.Forawhiletherewasathought
thattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Putininvoked"Novorossiya."Butitdidn't
workandsoPutindroppedit.
WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternally
driven.ThenRussiansgrewtoexpectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.Theeventsin
theDonbaswerenotaclearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Marriagesendedas
aresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoaboutUkraine.
SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Russia
didsomethingthatonlytheUScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjihadistshad
nothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"Arbatovsays.Putinwasfightingcolorrevolutionsin
Syria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlikestodothings.Nowthe
operationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyriahasserveditspurpose.
Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesigned
foraGDPratethatwasdoublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincannot
affordtobeseenasweak,tobeseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.Heisdeescalatingtensionwith
theWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenasaretreat,asasignofweakness."Thisisso
importantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresignsofPutin
deescalating.Thesearemajorstepstowardreconciliation.
IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwanttobe
isolationist.Russiaisanxiousforanendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,movesagainstthe
sanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceisnowthesloganoftheday.Butnotisolation.
GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.This
isRussia'sbigdilemma.
ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiatounfair
treatmentbyChina.
Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovargues,
thereare25percentwhoSTILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,considering
everything.
Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitssphereof
influence.Russiaunderstandsequalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoaccount.Nomore
doublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,Russiathinksitcanaswell.
RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevand
Bortnikov.Decisionsarebeingmadeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sinterests.
ActionswilltakenwithoutregardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingtheNATObuildup-
-areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikeretreat.
TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCE
observersontheborder.
AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillbenoreset
withtheWest.Buttherelationshipcanbemanaged.

HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tneedto
be.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahas
goneaway.TheWestisseenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinister
Lavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotanexpansionistpower.Theyhaveazoneofprivileged
intereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingbymilitarymeans.Thesix
countriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspace
andinvitingunpredictableoutcomes.

Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.

AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.

AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattotheBaltics.
Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweapons
reductionstoo.

TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.
RussiaisimportanttoAsia.CanweengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemorein
common.

Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeour
mutualworldviews.Inprinciplewecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcrisis.

ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresources
onarmsagainsteachother,needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sintheArcticor
elsewhere.

RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbatov.
PutincouldhaveagoodrelationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthatisan
unpredictablequality.
LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitnecessary
totryextrahardtobetoughonRussia.
Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyhavefor
eachother.
Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsinother
areas.It'snotimportantuntoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSadministration.

ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeitself
known.
RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.

CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaofreal
militarycooperation,Arbatovsays.Arbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoefforttotryto
resolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-Westconflictinyears,andneedstoberesolved.
JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmovebackin.
SoapeacekeepingforcealongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,tokeepthe
sidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbeawaytogetsanctionsremoved.Itwouldbean
unprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentinthepost-Soviet
space.

Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsarebad.But
Russia,typically,hasnowswungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypassivetooverly
bellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."

ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedaroleinthe
latestconflict.RussiaismoreengagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangerousthere,
dependingonUSpolicy.

ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCE
observersarelocated,Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,
alongthewholeborder.ThiswouldremovequestionsaboutRussia'srole.

SentfrommyiPad

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/16/201612:16:42PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[JDDDI&II&III5-16]WPOfficialEditoral:"Russ/ia'sreporteddopingisaSUBVERSIONoftheOlympicideal,"+9MoreStories
Subject:
CounteringRUinBlackSeaRegionCounteringRUSubs.......[FromPB&VB]'SORELOSING'ASANARTFORM:RU&Eurovisio

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,May16,201611:56AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[JDDDI&II&III5-16]WPOfficialEditoral:"Russ/ia'sreporteddopingisaSUBVERSIONoftheOlympicideal,"+9More
StoriesCounteringRUinBlackSeaRegionCounteringRUSubs.......[FromPB&VB]'SORELOSING'ASANARTFORM:RU&
Eurovision...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at11:36AM
Subject:OfficialeditorialoftheWashingtonPost:"Russ/ia'sreporteddopingisaSUBVERSIONoftheOlympicideal,"
washingtonpost.com,5/16
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

OfficialeditorialoftheWashingtonPost:"Russ/ia'sreporteddopingisaSUBVERSIONoftheOlympic
ideal,"washingtonpost.com,5/16

RussiasbehaviorinSochimakestheReaganproverbtrust,butverifyseemquaint.Therecanbeno
trustingaslongasMr.Putinisincharge.

And:Russiassportsminister[VitalyMUTKO]APOLOGIZESoverdoping,pleadsforRIO
entry,http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27735745.html

And:ThedaywelostRBC.AneditorialbyMEDUZA,meduza.io,5/16

And:MichaelCROWLEY,WhenDonaldTRUMPbroughtMissUniversetoMoscow.Howa2013
beautypageantexplainsTrumpsloveforRussiaandOBSESSIONwithVladimir
PUTIN,http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-russia-moscow-miss-universe-223173

And:NAVALNYdetainedinRussiasKrasnodartocheckforlinkstoIS[IS],themoscowtimes.com,
5/15

And:RussianPROXIESagainusebannedarms,attackAVDIYIVKAindustrialzone[inthe
Donbas],unian.info,5/16

And:ThereasonsforamajorethnicdisturbanceandslugfestatKHOVANSKIICEMETERYin
Moscow:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/73085.html?print=1

And:Thecampaignagainst[human]PARASITESintheDumacouldspellareturntoTERRORand
ECONOMICTERROR,http://ww.novayagazeta.ru/comments/73103.html?print=1

And:HowMILLIONSofRussiansarebeingeavesdroppeduponbythe
authorities:http://slon.ru/posts/68088

And:Meetthewoman[EllaPAMFILOVA]whosaysshesgoingtofixRussiasRIGGED
elections,washingtonpost.com,5/14

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at11:39AM
Subject:FW:CounteringR[U][intheBlackSeaRegion]
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

From:ThomasHHenriksen[mailto:thomash@stanford.edu]
Sent:Monday,May16,20167:37AM
To:JohnBDunloppaulroderickgregory
Subject:CounteringR

http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2016/05/13/canalliescountertherussianblackseafleetnatomullsaplan/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at11:39AM
Subject:FW:R[U]subs[WaysforNATOtoCounter]
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

From:ThomasHHenriksen[mailto:thomash@stanford.edu]
Sent:Monday,May16,20167:43AM
To:JohnBDunloppaulroderickgregory
Subject:Rsubs

http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/05/confrontrussiansubsnatoneedsnewaircraftconsortium/128315/

To Confront Russia's Subs, NATO Should Team Up


on ASW Aircraft
www.defenseone.com

Alliance members should replicate their successful C17 cooperation to


restore their maritime patrol aircraft fleets.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at1:56PM
Subject:Russiansreact(badly)tolosingEurovisiontoUkraine[ED:Fromthelooksofit----SEEREPORTSBELOW--
--RU'sEuro&USsympathizersarenotfarbehindinthatregard]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

RussiamediahowlsandwhinesasRussiansgohomefromStockholmwiththeirtailsfirmlyplantedbetweentheirlegs

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/russians-react-to-losing-eurovision-to-ukraine-413765.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at1:17PM
Subject:UkrainesEurovisionwinmaybeavictoryforCrimeanTatars,butwilltheworldtakemuchnotice?|World
Politics|News|TheIndependent
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

The[NotSoVery]Independent,ownedbyRussianOligarchAlexanderLebedevsince2010,spinsEurope'sslapinPutin'sface
withJamala'sEurovisionVictory.HavinginvestedmillionstopromoteRussia'sslickasspitcandidate,andadditionalmillions
schemingtorigthevotingagainsttheUkrainianentry,theRuskiesaregoinghomewiththeirtailsbetweentheirlegswhining,first,
"It'snotfair!"andnow,"Itdoesn'tmatteranyway."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/ukraine-s-eurovision-win-may-be-a-victory-for-crimean-tatars-but-will-the-
world-take-much-notice-a7030666.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:cogeco.ca>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at1:29PM
Subject:DidyouseethisbabbleintheGuardian?WhoisMarieDevesky?HowmuchdidthearticlecostPutin?
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

ED:KEY'LONDONGRAD'THEME.....OHBOY!!!

Secondwasthestrikingdisparitybetweenthevotesofthenationaljuries(theprofessionals,youcouldsay),andthoseof
thepeople.ThejuriesbetrayedthesamepoliticalinstinctsasinthepasttherewasamarkedpreferenceforUkraine
overRussia,whilesomeseemedtooptforAustraliaasaningeniousthirdway.Thepeoplewerebraver.Ratherthan
treatingRussiaandUkraineaseither-or,theyoftenplumpedforboth,puttingthemclosetogether,atornearthetop.
Itcouldbeamatterofmusicaltaste,butacrosstheboardRussiareceivedfarmorevotesfromthepeoplethanfrom
thenationaljuries.

NoristheglaringgapthattheEurovisionvotingexposed,betweeneliteandpopularopinionaboutRussia,uniqueto
thesongcontest.ItisreplicatedinviewsaboutRussiaitself,especiallyasexpressedinoldEurope.Whenwestern
condemnationofRussiaoverUkrainewasatitsheight,manypeopleusedsocialmediatoinsistthattheargumentswere
morefinelybalanced.Whenofficialcontactsweresevered,theysaiddialogueshouldremainopen.Thesewerenotso-
calledKremlintrolls,butnon-specialistswithadifferentview.

Eurovision

Opinion

HowdopeopleseeRussia?Eurovisiongaveoneanswer/MarieDevesky
UkrainetriumphedbutthepopularvotesuggestedamorenuancedviewofRussiathanhas
oftenbeenassumed

Byaccidentofgeopoliticsordiplomaticdesign,Ukrainehasbeenlargelyabsentfrom
internationalheadlinesrecently.Theviolenceintheeasthassubsidedthegovernmentin
Kievhasbeenindisarray,andRussiahasbeendistractedbySyria.TheMinsk-2agreement
limpsalong.

ButasSaturdaynightpassedintoSundaymorning,Ukrainebouncedbackintothespotlight.
ThiswaswhenJamala,thecountrysentrantinthisyearsEurovisionsongcontest,was
declaredthewinnerhersong,1944,wasanelegyforherTatargrandmother,whowas
deportedfromCrimeabyStalin.Russia,thebookiesfavouritetowinwithSergeyLazarevs
performanceofYouAretheOnlyOne,camethirdbehindAustralia.

JamalahadhardlybegunhervictoryperformancewhenRussiasTwitteratistartedtocallfoul.
Ukrainessong,theyobjected,wasblatantlypolitical,bywhichtheymeantanti-Russian,and
assuchshouldhavebeenexcluded.

Theywerentcompletelywrong.StalinsdeportationoftheTatarswasoneofthemoreheinous
Soviet-eraatrocities,anditresonatesanewfollowingRussiasannexationofCrimeafrom
Ukrainein2014.Eurovisionwiselybanspoliticallyrics,andhasmanaged,amazingly,topretty
muchholdtheline.

Butquestionshadbeenaskedatanearlystage,andUkrainessongwaspermitted.Asa
resultthisyearsEurovisionlaidbaretheextentanddepthofEuropescontinuingdivisions
overRussiaandUkraineinavisceral,dramaticway,inpartbecauseofthenewsystem
devisedforpresentingthescores.

Politicisedvoting,ofcourse,ishardlynew.Withpollingalwaysorganisedonanationalbasis,
Eurovisionhasneverbeenabletostoppeoplevotingforfriends,alliesandfellowbelievers.
Thepredictabilitywithwhich,say,GreeceandCyprusvoteforeachotherandagainstTurkey,
andwithwhichtheScandinaviansclustertogether,hasbecomeastandingjoke.

Thosesametendencieswereallondisplaythisyear.Buttheseparationofthenationaljuries
votesfromthepopularvotedisaggregatedonthewebsiteforalltoseepermitssome
further-reachinganddiscomfitingconclusions.

FirstistheclearevidenceofhowsharplyUkraineandRussiahavedividedtherestofEurope,
andthedifficultymanyvotersfeelindecidingbetweentheirmerits.Thetwocountries
remainedincontentionforthetopslotuntiltheveryend.

Secondwasthestrikingdisparitybetweenthevotesofthenationaljuries(theprofessionals,
youcouldsay),andthoseofthepeople.Thejuriesbetrayedthesamepoliticalinstinctsas
inthepasttherewasamarkedpreferenceforUkraineoverRussia,whilesomeseemedto
optforAustraliaasaningeniousthirdway.Thepeoplewerebraver.Ratherthantreating
RussiaandUkraineaseither-or,theyoftenplumpedforboth,puttingthemclosetogether,at
ornearthetop.Itcouldbeamatterofmusicaltaste,butacrosstheboardRussiareceived
farmorevotesfromthepeoplethanfromthenationaljuries.

NoristheglaringgapthattheEurovisionvotingexposed,betweeneliteandpopularopinion
aboutRussia,uniquetothesongcontest.ItisreplicatedinviewsaboutRussiaitself,
especiallyasexpressedinoldEurope.WhenwesterncondemnationofRussiaoverUkraine
wasatitsheight,manypeopleusedsocialmediatoinsistthattheargumentsweremore
finelybalanced.Whenofficialcontactsweresevered,theysaiddialogueshouldremainopen.
Thesewerenotso-calledKremlintrolls,butnon-specialistswithadifferentview.

EvenintheunlikelyeventthatMinsk-2isimplementedbythistimenextyear,itishardto
envisageJamalaandLazarev,say,sharingtheEurovisionplatforminKiev.Justmaybe,
though,theprofessionalsneedtotaketheircuefromthepeopleandacceptthatitmightbe
timeforthediplomaticstand-offoverUkrainetobewounddown.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at1:49PM
Subject:JamalaFollow-up[ED:PUTIN'SUSMOUTHPIECEAVERKODOESSAMEINHISBCCMEMOSAS
LONDONGRAD'SDEVESKADOESINTHEGUARDIAN...SEEABOVE]
To:

Re:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3592863/Stalin-forced-parents-DIVORCE-Eurovision-winner-reveals-
Soviet-dictator-tortured-great-grandmother-killing-baby-daughter-leaving-legacy-family-trauma.html?
ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

Anexcerptunderoneofthephotos:

"Sunshineaftertears:Aftermanygenerationsoftrauma,Jamala'sfamilyisnowlivingpeacefullyinCrimea,where
herparentsGalinaandAlimrunahotel."

****

Thearticlenotesthatshe's1/2Armenian.Thepro-KievregimeCrimeanTataractivistMustafaDzhemilev,isonrecord
fornotfavoringaformalrecognitionoftheArmenianGenocide.

Russiawonthepopularvoteinthejustcompletedcontest.Anelitepanelofjudgessharplycontrastedfrom
thatpopularvote.RecallwhatwassaidaboutthedisconnectbetweenWarsawPactofficialdomandthe
peopletheyruledover.

WesternmassmediahasincludedthesuggestionthatEurovisionofficialdomwantedtostickittoRussiaonthe
matterofLGBTrelatedlegislationinthatcountry.NevermindtheLGBTsituationinKievregimecontrolledUkraine.

Jamalawasabletogetherperformanceonthe1944CrimeanTatardeportationapprovedbecauseofficialRussia
acknowledgesthatactaswrong.Hence,shewasabletoclaimenoughofanon-politicalcontroversyforapproval.

Russia'sstancelooksethicallybetterthanhowTurkeytreatstheArmenianGenocide(whichinvolvesamore
gruesomeexhibitofrepression).Somewhatrelated,isthewaytheKievregimeviewsthelegacyofStepanBandera
andhissupporters.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Vicbaba<vicbaba@aol.com>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at12:55PM
Subject:Re:[EUROVISIONVICTORYREACTIONFROMBCCNETWORKMEMBERS.....FROMPUTIN'SUS
BUDMIKEYAVERKO.....FROMTHEUAGLOBALHROMADA][VICBREPORTSATROUBLING
DEVELOPMENT]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

Guesswhat???YoutubetookJamalaofftheinternetwithanoticethevideoisnotavailableinthiscountry???
Whathorsemanure.

VicBabanskyj

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at1:07PM
Subject:RussiahasRepressionofCrimeanTatarsNowtoHideIftheWestLetsThem::khpg.org
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

AsRussiagetsgoingwithitsthirdhistoricalcycleofgenocideoftheCrimeanTatars(remember1783aswellas
1944),Jamala'ssongputsaspotlightonPutinandhisterrorists.

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1462055452

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at12:29PM
Subject:RussiaandUkraineareatitagain,thistimeoveraEurovisionsong-TheWashingtonPost
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

WashingtonPostreporterYananWangaddedjustenoughweakbitstothisarticletomakeitlooklikethecouple
nextdoorwasatitagain.Eithershedoesn'tseethebiggerpictureorsheignoresit.Thisyear'sEurovisionwas
notUkrainesquabbling,onceagain,withneighborRussia.

ReporterslikeWangshouldbecontactedandbetterinformed,especiallyonmattersUkrainian.

MaybesomeoneinWashingtoncantakehertolunch.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/05/16/russia-and-ukraine-are-fighting-again-this-time-
over-a-eurovision-song/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_mix

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Mon,May16,2016at1:33PM
Subject:KudostoAustraliaandformerPMAbbott.Eurovision2016:FuriousRussianofficialsthreaten
boycottoverUkraine1944victory
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

KudostoAustraliaandformerPrimeMinisterAbbott!

"IhavealotofgoodwillforUkraine.IthinkUkrainehassufferedalotoverthelastcoupleofdecadesandIthink
they'recurrentlysufferingatthehandsofabully,"Mr.AbbotttoldSkyNewsonSundaynight.

"So,ifthishelpstheirmorale,Ithinkweshouldbepreparedtoacceptsecondplace."

AstoRussianotshowingupforEurovision2017,ifRussiantroopsarestilloccupyingpartsofUkraine,theyshould
notbeallowedtocomeanyway.WasTokyoRoseeverinvitedtotheOscars?WouldunrepentantNazisbe
allowedtorepresentIsrael?HowaboutsomeISISsingersforBelgiumorFrance?Russiansstayhome,and
thosewhoaren't,pleasegothereASAPandtakeyourtankswithyou!

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/eurovision-2016-furious-russian-officials-threaten-boycott-over-ukraine-1944-victory-
1560300

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:StefanRomaniw<chairman@ozeukes.com>
Date:Sun,May15,2016at9:56PM
Subject:Mediarelease:UkrainiandiasporarejoicesoverEurovisionwin
To:StefanRomaniw<chairman@ozeukes.com>

KEYREAD:

AlthoughAustralianUkrainiansweretornoverAustraliacomingsecond,themessageJamalaswin
sendsoutisjusttooimportant.

15May2016

MEDIARELEASE
UkrainiandiasporarejoicesoverEurovisionwin
Inavictoryloadedwithpoliticalmeaning,Ukraines2016EurovisionentrantJamala,hastakenoutthecoveted
prize,muchtoAustralian-Ukrainiansdelight.

The32-yearoldsingerisaCrimeanTatar,anethnicgroupnativetoUkrainesCrimeanpeninsulasincethe13th
17thcenturies.In1944theTatarsweredeportedfromCrimeabytheSovietgovernment.Decadeslatertheylater
returnedtotheirhomelandbuthaveexperiencedrenewedethnictensionsincetheRussianFederations
annexationofCrimeain2014.Thiswasthemessageofthewinnerssong1944.

AustralianFederationofUkrainianOrganisations(AFUO)ChairmanandGeneralSecretaryoftheUkrainianWorld
Congress,StefanRomaniwOAMsaidCrimeaisfarfromlosttoUkraine.Itismainstreamplatformslike
EurovisionthatservetoremindthepublicofRussiasongoingaggressionandthatUkrainehasnotgivenup.said
MrRomaniw.

ThefactthatvotersandEurovisionjudgessupportedJamalainherunmistakablestatementshowsthatpeople
havenotforgottenthatCrimeaisUkraine.MrRomaniwsaid.

JamalahasnotbeentoCrimeasinceitsannexationovertwoyearsagodespiteherfamilyremainingthere.

AlthoughAustralianUkrainiansweretornoverAustraliacomingsecond,themessageJamalaswinsendsoutis
justtooimportant.

FORMOREINFORMATION:STEFANROMANIW0419531255ORLYDIAGIBALA0415656038.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/16/201608:36:55AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:OfficialeditorialoftheWashingtonPost:"Rusia'sreporteddopingisaSUBVERSIONoftheOlympicideal,"washingtonpost.com,5/16

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,May16,20168:37AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:OfficialeditorialoftheWashingtonPost:"Rusia'sreporteddopingisaSUBVERSIONoftheOlympicideal,"
washingtonpost.com,5/16

RussiasbehaviorinSochimakestheReaganproverbtrust,butverifyseemquaint.Therecanbeno
trustingaslongasMr.Putinisincharge.

And:Russiassportsminister[VitalyMUTKO]APOLOGIZESoverdoping,pleadsforRIOentry,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27735745.html

And:ThedaywelostRBC.AneditorialbyMEDUZA,meduza.io,5/16

And:MichaelCROWLEY,WhenDonaldTRUMPbroughtMissUniversetoMoscow.Howa2013
beautypageantexplainsTrumpsloveforRussiaandOBSESSIONwithVladimirPUTIN,
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donaldtrumprussiamoscowmissuniverse223173

And:NAVALNYdetainedinRussiasKrasnodartocheckforlinkstoIS[IS],themoscowtimes.com,
5/15

And:RussianPROXIESagainusebannedarms,attackAVDIYIVKAindustrialzone[intheDonbas],
unian.info,5/16

And:ThereasonsforamajorethnicdisturbanceandslugfestatKHOVANSKIICEMETERYinMoscow:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/73085.html?print=1

And:Thecampaignagainst[human]PARASITESintheDumacouldspellareturntoTERRORand
ECONOMICTERROR,http://ww.novayagazeta.ru/comments/73103.html?print=1

And:HowMILLIONSofRussiansarebeingeavesdroppeduponbytheauthorities:
http://slon.ru/posts/68088

And:Meetthewoman[EllaPAMFILOVA]whosaysshesgoingtofixRussiasRIGGEDelections,
washingtonpost.com,5/14

From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 05/16/201602:04:09PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

Interesting,thanksforsharing.Afewreactions

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Therearetwocontradictory
narratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaand
counteritspropaganda-why?
nAsifthosearetheonlytwowaystodescribethesituation.

Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,
nThenwhatisitconservative?Especiallyifheacknowledgesthattheyreoverextended?

TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.
nThatsaratherstrongstatement.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryobserves.Maybethisisthe
bestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproducesbadoutcomes.
nLetssee,theyveinvadedseveralneighbors,arethreateninguseofnukes,killingtheirowncritics,journalists,messing
aroundinSyriaandmakingmattersworsethereyeah,thisisgreat.Oh,andletsconfuseelectionswithdemocracy,
whilewereatit.Whatanidiot.

TomGrahamsaysthesecurityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-takers.Theyhad
plannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasusedjudiciously.TheywereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.They
haven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'snorealisticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,
becauseit'slowrisktobenasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.AndthepeoplehereintheUS
whowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.
nIassumehemeansthemilitaryinthelastline.Idratherbesafethansorry.Andlowrisk?IsSyrialowrisk?AndDonbas
didntturnouttoowelleither.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwehaveisafailureof
imagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehaveforeseenbothoftheseevents?
nIdontquiterecallAndysbrilliantpredictionsoftheseevents.

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshavechangedinRussia,300years
ofhistorytothecontrary.
nGorbydeservesmorecreditthanYeltsin,Idargue.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahasgoneaway.TheWestis
seenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinisterLavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotan
expansionistpower.TheyhaveazoneofprivilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingby
militarymeans.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspaceandinvitingunpredictable
outcomes.
nAndheworkedfortheNIC???!!!Oh,letsjustreengagePutinforwhatpurpose???

TomsRussia-Asiashtickisgettingold.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,May16,20161:03PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

N.B.remarkswereofftherecordpleasedonotforwardorotherwisedistribute:)

CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?

AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"newnormals."Atthesametime,
wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Trump.

Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thaveforeseenPutin'spopularity
ashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'thaveexpectedoilpricessolow.

Ourkeyquestions:
-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?

DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.Theflexibleexchangeratehas
beeneffective.
-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthefall.
-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextyear.Returntofourpercentgrowth,
however,isunlikely.
-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofcomprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikelyuntilafter2018elections.No
secretaboutwhatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeaboutwhattodo.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,forinstance.Retoolingofindustryis
unlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrecentlycreatedisanopportunity.

MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstoftheBRICSexceptforBrazil's.
Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbeentwiceasbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanaged
effectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethistimecomparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthat
thepopulationtookthebruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthiscrisis,whereas
publicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttothehighpoliticalsupportthegovernmenthas
had.
Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincreased.Atthesametime,thevery
richhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffective.
Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokeepinflationdown.Their
approachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They'veavoidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemiddleincometrap?Don'tassumeit
can'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.ThehugeleapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusiness
rankingsshowsthatRussiacanimplementneededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministration
forinstanceisratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslydiscussed.
Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionallystrongcorrelationbetweensupportfor
Putinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.PoliticalsupportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomic
crisishasbecomedeep.
Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshasreachednewlows,andsupport
forthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sowncharismaandpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn't
translatedintoprotests,whichis"amazing,"Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthanthey
werein2010.Thisisaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.

ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRussia'stightfiscalpolicyin2015for
helpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthattheconsumerhasbornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheories
aboutwhypeoplehavehandledthiscrisisascalmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionately,
butthegovernmenthasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabilitytoattractinvestment.Efforts
sofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuingintonextyear,butgettingnevermuch
abovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagnation.
Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroduceanewfiscalrule?They'vecutalot,
that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroomtocutfurther.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchas
raisingthepensionage.Theflattaxratemayhavetobeincreased.
Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclearhowitcanescapethemiddleincometrap.
Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,they'renotprotesting.

DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.DmitriyevsaysCustomsreformisabright
spot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offeringopportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughon
anything,onanyreform,suchasjudicialreform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensome
marginalimprovementshelpalot.

AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?

DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadeprogress,judgingbyatleast
anecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.

Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto,anditisbroadlysupportedacross
almostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefthatitdoesn'tneedtofocusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.

Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreigninvestorshavebeentreatedfairly
duringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasintheautoindustry,whichisafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,
Begunsays,Russiaisbeingpushedoutoftheglobalsupplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayerinthe
globalsupplychain.What'shappeningtothemiddleclass?

Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsectoristakinguptheslackwithbig
prospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.Themortgagemarketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby
1.5percentperyear.ThisisnotanunusualrateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.

Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstandwhythey'reimportant,but
practicallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportthem.

Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthattheelitesdon'tneedorwantreform.
Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenquestion.

AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.

GeneRumersaysheisatalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanelistsandthepicturethatemerges
fromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.

ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.Buttheneteffectofthat"good"
policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedbanks.Thisunderscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.

Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureaboutthesizeofthestate.Therearein
factmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthattelladifferentstory.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebanking
sector.
Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem.Butatthesametimethe
resultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.

WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.

HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitriyevacknowledgesthatthe
widespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.

Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalecisaskedaboutthe
communicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationistakingplaceinvariouschannels.She
acknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutback."Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."
ThedecisionsonSyriaandontheNationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obama
andKerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.

Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Ismachinerybeingbuiltupon
eithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?

ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentatSeamechanismisworking,more
orless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazennessforbravery."

Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontroliftheRussiansarelookingpastObama.
RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrumpforpresident.

AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasontheinformationfront,themilitary
reassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.

AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepartmentacceptRussia'sofferto
discussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedistanceslimitslaidouttherein?

TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefinetheshorttermandlong
termgoals?

KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit'snotunachievable.This(Putin)regimeis
notforever,afterall.
TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesandcounteringinformation
aggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.Therearesomethingswecouldaccomplish.Maybewecan
extendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamayturnouttobeaplusfortherelationship.

BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeeninthelead.Aretheymore
confident?

KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountryanditsissuesshouldbe
managedbytheEuropeans.
AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertotheUS.

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Therearetwocontradictorynarratives,
oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounterits
propaganda-why?

Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses.Shepointsoutthatwenow
describethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"soft").

AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?Howdowekeepa
relationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventuallyhewillgo.

SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?

Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.

WhydoweseeRussiaasparticularlyimportant?

InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrendsinpublicopinionandhighlights
thehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumbersdon'thavethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitive
politicalsystem.Otherindicatorsareheadingdowntopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.The
protestmoodisnothighandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroups--horizontallinksamongprotest
groupsaren'ttakingshape.

ThegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingislikelytobeaseffectiveasCrimea
was.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyassociationwiththeaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmay
propuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit.

TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-termfutureoftheSovietUnion
andthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingtohappen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenwe
explainthemafterthefact.Someofthatanalysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.
Lookingatcurrenttrendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assomeearlierspeakershave
noted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweakanddivided.
ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomakethatchange?
Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromforeignenemies.Thisisoneof
Putin'smainjobs.
Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,peoplethoughtthingswouldbegetting
better.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.ThischallengesPutin'sabilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceservices,butthereareothers.The
stand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.ThismakesitharderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedprotests.Onlyasmallnumberof
suchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'scontrol.
Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeenundertakenjusttopropup
Putin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeephispopularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiais
overextended.
IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesandlongtermcommitments.There
aregrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakenintoaccount.
Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite."Icanenvisionascenariothatgetsus
toaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoesn'tmeanthesystemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosome
changesinpriority,butwon'tchangethewayRussiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintothe
Westerncommunity.WewillneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.

AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?EvenifanewleaderstartsoutfollowinginPutin's
footsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwillbethere.Itwillhavetochange,
butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.

Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.Weshouldn'tfocusonjustthetop
layerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.Thismaynotbeaclassiccoupscenario.Therecouldbeaguaranteed
arrangementbehindthescenesthatgetsPutintostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochange
thesystemorthecountrywillfallfartherbehind.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryobserves.Maybethisisthe
bestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproducesbadoutcomes.
Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewhothinkPutinistoosoft.Russia
couldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.

AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughaboutwhat'sgoingoninsidethe
republics,includingprotests?
Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.

AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"sofarhavebeenthefarright.
Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikelythatthanaconsensusforeconomicgrowth.

TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.ButthesecurityservicesinRussia
tendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-takers.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.
Forcewasusedjudiciously.TheywereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'sno
realisticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisktobenasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwe
willfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.AndthepeoplehereintheUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobably
lobbyingformorefunding.

VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddeliberatelyformaximumpopularity.
Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumratings.

Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas,justastheydidin1999.
It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothaveseenitcoming.

Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?

Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthatprotestnow?Howdoesit
affectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?

A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsentiment.
TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotestersasnon-Russian.TheKremlin
ismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthoseprotestslinkingupwithpoliticalprotests.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwehaveisafailureof
imagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehaveforeseenbothoftheseevents?

GeneRumerasksVolkov:IsitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdomesticpoliticsareTV,and
Crimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshavechangedinRussia,300yearsof
historytothecontrary.

VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthemaindriverofdomesticpolitics
(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobeseenhowlongpeoplewillcontinuetosupporttheregime.People
believePutinwhenhesays"twoyears"forthecrisis.Theystilltrusthimaboutthis.Aslongasthissupportcontinuestheeliteswill
notmoveagainstPutin.

GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivity,andfocusontheeconomy.
ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,RussiaisnottheSovietUnion.
And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablyasoftpalacecoup.

ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesAlekseyArbatovoftheCarnegie
MoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS.From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.Putin
resentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dcometopowerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutin
wasbeingauthoritarian,hewaspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includingarmscontrol,
hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcessionshewouldnotgainrespectorequal
treatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmore.Sowhenhecamebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytoget
respectwastochallengetheWest,eventhoughhehadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.It
wasaninternalaswellasanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPutin.AndifUkraine
succeeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.ItwouldchallengethewholePutinregime.Themassprotestsof2011were
thefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.InCrimea,hetookrevengeontheWest.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defense
throughoffense.ForawhiletherewasathoughtthattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Putininvoked
"Novorossiya."Butitdidn'tworkandsoPutindroppedit.
WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternallydriven.ThenRussiansgrewto
expectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.TheeventsintheDonbaswerenota
clearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Marriagesendedasaresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoabout
Ukraine.
SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Russiadidsomethingthatonlythe
UScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjihadistshadnothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"
Arbatovsays.PutinwasfightingcolorrevolutionsinSyria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlikes
todothings.NowtheoperationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyriahasserveditspurpose.
Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesignedforaGDPratethatwas
doublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincannotaffordtobeseenasweak,to
beseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.HeisdeescalatingtensionwiththeWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenas
aretreat,asasignofweakness."Thisissoimportantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresignsofPutindeescalating.Theseare
majorstepstowardreconciliation.
IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwanttobeisolationist.Russiaisanxious
foranendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,movesagainstthesanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceis
nowthesloganoftheday.Butnotisolation.
GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.ThisisRussia'sbigdilemma.
ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiatounfairtreatmentbyChina.
Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovargues,thereare25percentwho
STILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,consideringeverything.
Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitssphereofinfluence.Russiaunderstands
equalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoaccount.Nomoredoublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,
Russiathinksitcanaswell.
RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevandBortnikov.Decisionsarebeing
madeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sinterests.Actionswilltakenwithout
regardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingtheNATObuildup--areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikeretreat.
TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCEobserversontheborder.
AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillbenoresetwiththeWest.Butthe
relationshipcanbemanaged.

HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tneedtobe.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahasgoneaway.TheWestis
seenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinisterLavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotan
expansionistpower.TheyhaveazoneofprivilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingby
militarymeans.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspaceandinvitingunpredictable
outcomes.

Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.
AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.

AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattotheBaltics.
Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweaponsreductionstoo.

TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.RussiaisimportanttoAsia.Can
weengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemoreincommon.

Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeourmutualworldviews.Inprinciple
wecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcrisis.

ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresourcesonarmsagainsteachother,
needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sintheArcticorelsewhere.

RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbatov.Putincouldhaveagood
relationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthatisanunpredictablequality.
LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitnecessarytotryextrahardtobe
toughonRussia.
Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyhaveforeachother.
Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsinotherareas.It'snotimportant
untoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSadministration.

ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeitselfknown.
RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.

CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaofrealmilitarycooperation,
Arbatovsays.ArbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoefforttotrytoresolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-
Westconflictinyears,andneedstoberesolved.
JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmovebackin.Soapeacekeepingforce
alongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,tokeepthesidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbea
waytogetsanctionsremoved.ItwouldbeanunprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentin
thepost-Sovietspace.

Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsarebad.ButRussia,typically,hasnow
swungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypassivetooverlybellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."

ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedaroleinthelatestconflict.Russiaismore
engagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangerousthere,dependingonUSpolicy.

ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCEobserversarelocated,
Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,alongthewholeborder.Thiswouldremove
questionsaboutRussia'srole.

SentfrommyiPad

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/16/201610:02:38AM
To: DavidKramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

N.B.remarkswereofftherecordpleasedonotforwardorotherwisedistribute:)

CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?

AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"newnormals."Atthesametime,
wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Trump.

Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thaveforeseenPutin'spopularity
ashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'thaveexpectedoilpricessolow.

Ourkeyquestions:
-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?

DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.Theflexibleexchangeratehas
beeneffective.
-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthefall.
-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextyear.Returntofourpercentgrowth,
however,isunlikely.
-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofcomprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikelyuntilafter2018elections.No
secretaboutwhatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeaboutwhattodo.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,forinstance.Retoolingofindustryis
unlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrecentlycreatedisanopportunity.

MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstoftheBRICSexceptforBrazil's.
Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbeentwiceasbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanaged
effectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethistimecomparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthat
thepopulationtookthebruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthiscrisis,whereas
publicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttothehighpoliticalsupportthegovernmenthas
had.
Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincreased.Atthesametime,thevery
richhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffective.
Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokeepinflationdown.Their
approachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They'veavoidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemiddleincometrap?Don'tassumeit
can'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.ThehugeleapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusiness
rankingsshowsthatRussiacanimplementneededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministration
forinstanceisratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslydiscussed.
Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionallystrongcorrelationbetweensupportfor
Putinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.PoliticalsupportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomic
crisishasbecomedeep.
Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshasreachednewlows,andsupport
forthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sowncharismaandpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn't
translatedintoprotests,whichis"amazing,"Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthanthey
werein2010.Thisisaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.

ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRussia'stightfiscalpolicyin2015for
helpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthattheconsumerhasbornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheories
aboutwhypeoplehavehandledthiscrisisascalmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionately,
butthegovernmenthasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabilitytoattractinvestment.Efforts
sofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuingintonextyear,butgettingnevermuch
abovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagnation.
Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroduceanewfiscalrule?They'vecutalot,
that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroomtocutfurther.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchas
raisingthepensionage.Theflattaxratemayhavetobeincreased.
Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclearhowitcanescapethemiddleincometrap.
Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,they'renotprotesting.

DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.DmitriyevsaysCustomsreformisabright
spot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offeringopportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughon
anything,onanyreform,suchasjudicialreform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensome
marginalimprovementshelpalot.

AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?

DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadeprogress,judgingbyatleast
anecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.

Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto,anditisbroadlysupportedacross
almostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefthatitdoesn'tneedtofocusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.

Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreigninvestorshavebeentreatedfairly
duringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasintheautoindustry,whichisafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,
Begunsays,Russiaisbeingpushedoutoftheglobalsupplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayerinthe
globalsupplychain.What'shappeningtothemiddleclass?

Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsectoristakinguptheslackwithbig
prospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.Themortgagemarketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby
1.5percentperyear.ThisisnotanunusualrateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.

Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstandwhythey'reimportant,but
practicallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportthem.

Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthattheelitesdon'tneedorwantreform.
Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenquestion.

AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.

GeneRumersaysheisatalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanelistsandthepicturethatemerges
fromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.

ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.Buttheneteffectofthat"good"
policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedbanks.Thisunderscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.
Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureaboutthesizeofthestate.Therearein
factmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthattelladifferentstory.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebanking
sector.
Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem.Butatthesametimethe
resultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.

WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.

HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitriyevacknowledgesthatthe
widespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.

Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalecisaskedaboutthe
communicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationistakingplaceinvariouschannels.She
acknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutback."Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."
ThedecisionsonSyriaandontheNationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obama
andKerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.

Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Ismachinerybeingbuiltupon
eithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?

ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentatSeamechanismisworking,more
orless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazennessforbravery."

Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontroliftheRussiansarelookingpastObama.
RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrumpforpresident.

AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasontheinformationfront,themilitary
reassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.

AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepartmentacceptRussia'sofferto
discussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedistanceslimitslaidouttherein?

TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefinetheshorttermandlong
termgoals?

KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit'snotunachievable.This(Putin)regimeis
notforever,afterall.
TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesandcounteringinformation
aggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.Therearesomethingswecouldaccomplish.Maybewecan
extendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamayturnouttobeaplusfortherelationship.

BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeeninthelead.Aretheymore
confident?

KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountryanditsissuesshouldbe
managedbytheEuropeans.
AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertotheUS.

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Therearetwocontradictorynarratives,
oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounterits
propaganda-why?

Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses.Shepointsoutthatwenow
describethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"soft").
AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?Howdowekeepa
relationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventuallyhewillgo.

SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?

Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.

WhydoweseeRussiaasparticularlyimportant?

InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrendsinpublicopinionandhighlights
thehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumbersdon'thavethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitive
politicalsystem.Otherindicatorsareheadingdowntopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.The
protestmoodisnothighandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroups--horizontallinksamongprotest
groupsaren'ttakingshape.

ThegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingislikelytobeaseffectiveasCrimea
was.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyassociationwiththeaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmay
propuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit.

TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-termfutureoftheSovietUnion
andthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingtohappen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenwe
explainthemafterthefact.Someofthatanalysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.
Lookingatcurrenttrendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assomeearlierspeakershave
noted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweakanddivided.
ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomakethatchange?
Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromforeignenemies.Thisisoneof
Putin'smainjobs.
Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,peoplethoughtthingswouldbegetting
better.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.ThischallengesPutin'sabilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceservices,butthereareothers.The
stand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.ThismakesitharderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedprotests.Onlyasmallnumberof
suchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'scontrol.
Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeenundertakenjusttopropup
Putin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeephispopularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiais
overextended.
IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesandlongtermcommitments.There
aregrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakenintoaccount.
Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite."Icanenvisionascenariothatgetsus
toaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoesn'tmeanthesystemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosome
changesinpriority,butwon'tchangethewayRussiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintothe
Westerncommunity.WewillneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.

AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?EvenifanewleaderstartsoutfollowinginPutin's
footsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwillbethere.Itwillhavetochange,
butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.

Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.Weshouldn'tfocusonjustthetop
layerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.Thismaynotbeaclassiccoupscenario.Therecouldbeaguaranteed
arrangementbehindthescenesthatgetsPutintostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochange
thesystemorthecountrywillfallfartherbehind.
TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryobserves.Maybethisisthe
bestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproducesbadoutcomes.

Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewhothinkPutinistoosoft.Russia
couldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.

AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughaboutwhat'sgoingoninsidethe
republics,includingprotests?
Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.

AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"sofarhavebeenthefarright.
Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikelythatthanaconsensusforeconomicgrowth.

TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.ButthesecurityservicesinRussia
tendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-takers.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.
Forcewasusedjudiciously.TheywereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'sno
realisticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisktobenasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwe
willfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.AndthepeoplehereintheUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobably
lobbyingformorefunding.

VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddeliberatelyformaximumpopularity.
Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumratings.

Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas,justastheydidin1999.
It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothaveseenitcoming.

Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?

Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthatprotestnow?Howdoesit
affectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?

A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsentiment.
TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotestersasnon-Russian.TheKremlin
ismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthoseprotestslinkingupwithpoliticalprotests.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwehaveisafailureof
imagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehaveforeseenbothoftheseevents?

GeneRumerasksVolkov:IsitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdomesticpoliticsareTV,and
Crimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshavechangedinRussia,300yearsof
historytothecontrary.

VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthemaindriverofdomesticpolitics
(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobeseenhowlongpeoplewillcontinuetosupporttheregime.People
believePutinwhenhesays"twoyears"forthecrisis.Theystilltrusthimaboutthis.Aslongasthissupportcontinuestheeliteswill
notmoveagainstPutin.

GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivity,andfocusontheeconomy.
ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,RussiaisnottheSovietUnion.
And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablyasoftpalacecoup.

ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesAlekseyArbatovoftheCarnegie
MoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS.From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.Putin
resentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dcometopowerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutin
wasbeingauthoritarian,hewaspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includingarmscontrol,
hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcessionshewouldnotgainrespectorequal
treatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmore.Sowhenhecamebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytoget
respectwastochallengetheWest,eventhoughhehadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.It
wasaninternalaswellasanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPutin.AndifUkraine
succeeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.ItwouldchallengethewholePutinregime.Themassprotestsof2011were
thefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.InCrimea,hetookrevengeontheWest.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defense
throughoffense.ForawhiletherewasathoughtthattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Putininvoked
"Novorossiya."Butitdidn'tworkandsoPutindroppedit.
WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternallydriven.ThenRussiansgrewto
expectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.TheeventsintheDonbaswerenota
clearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Marriagesendedasaresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoabout
Ukraine.
SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Russiadidsomethingthatonlythe
UScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjihadistshadnothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"
Arbatovsays.PutinwasfightingcolorrevolutionsinSyria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlikes
todothings.NowtheoperationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyriahasserveditspurpose.
Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesignedforaGDPratethatwas
doublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincannotaffordtobeseenasweak,to
beseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.HeisdeescalatingtensionwiththeWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenas
aretreat,asasignofweakness."Thisissoimportantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresignsofPutindeescalating.Theseare
majorstepstowardreconciliation.
IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwanttobeisolationist.Russiaisanxious
foranendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,movesagainstthesanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceis
nowthesloganoftheday.Butnotisolation.
GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.ThisisRussia'sbigdilemma.
ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiatounfairtreatmentbyChina.
Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovargues,thereare25percentwho
STILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,consideringeverything.
Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitssphereofinfluence.Russiaunderstands
equalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoaccount.Nomoredoublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,
Russiathinksitcanaswell.
RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevandBortnikov.Decisionsarebeing
madeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sinterests.Actionswilltakenwithout
regardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingtheNATObuildup--areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikeretreat.
TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCEobserversontheborder.
AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillbenoresetwiththeWest.Butthe
relationshipcanbemanaged.

HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tneedtobe.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahasgoneaway.TheWestis
seenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinisterLavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotan
expansionistpower.TheyhaveazoneofprivilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingby
militarymeans.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspaceandinvitingunpredictable
outcomes.

Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.

AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.

AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattotheBaltics.
Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweaponsreductionstoo.

TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.RussiaisimportanttoAsia.Can
weengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemoreincommon.

Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeourmutualworldviews.Inprinciple
wecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcrisis.

ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresourcesonarmsagainsteachother,
needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sintheArcticorelsewhere.

RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbatov.Putincouldhaveagood
relationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthatisanunpredictablequality.
LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitnecessarytotryextrahardtobe
toughonRussia.
Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyhaveforeachother.
Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsinotherareas.It'snotimportant
untoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSadministration.

ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeitselfknown.
RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.

CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaofrealmilitarycooperation,
Arbatovsays.ArbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoefforttotrytoresolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-
Westconflictinyears,andneedstoberesolved.
JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmovebackin.Soapeacekeepingforce
alongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,tokeepthesidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbea
waytogetsanctionsremoved.ItwouldbeanunprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentin
thepost-Sovietspace.

Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsarebad.ButRussia,typically,hasnow
swungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypassivetooverlybellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."

ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedaroleinthelatestconflict.Russiaismore
engagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangerousthere,dependingonUSpolicy.

ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCEobserversarelocated,
Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,alongthewholeborder.Thiswouldremove
questionsaboutRussia'srole.

SentfrommyiPad
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/16/201612:12:59AM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
Subject: Fwd:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

>
>CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory
>
>WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?
>
>AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"n
ewnormals."Atthesametime,wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Tr
ump.
>
>Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thav
eforeseenPutin'spopularityashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'th
aveexpectedoilpricessolow.
>
>Ourkeyquestions:
>-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
>-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
>-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
>-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?
>
>DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
>-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
>-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.
Theflexibleexchangeratehasbeeneffective.
>-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthe
fall.
>-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextye
ar.Returntofourpercentgrowth,however,isunlikely.
>-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofcomprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikely
untilafter2018elections.Nosecretaboutwhatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeabout
whattodo.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
>-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,fori
nstance.Retoolingofindustryisunlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrece
ntlycreatedisanopportunity.
>
>MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstofthe
BRICSexceptforBrazil's.Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbee
ntwiceasbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanagedeffectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethi
stimecomparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthatthepopulatio
ntookthebruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthisc
risis,whereaspublicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttot
hehighpoliticalsupportthegovernmenthashad.
>Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincre
ased.Atthesametime,theveryrichhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
>Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffect
ive.
>Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokee
pinflationdown.TheirapproachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They've
avoidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
>Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
>Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
>Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemid
dleincometrap?Don'tassumeitcan'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.Th
ehugeleapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusinessrankingsshowsthatRussiacani
mplementneededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministration
forinstanceisratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslyd
iscussed.
>Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionally
strongcorrelationbetweensupportforPutinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.Pol
iticalsupportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomiccrisishasbecomedeep.
>Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshas
reachednewlows,andsupportforthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sowncha
rismaandpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn'ttranslatedintoprotests,whichis
"amazing,"Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthanthey
werein2010.Thisisaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.
>
>ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRuss
ia'stightfiscalpolicyin2015forhelpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthatthec
onsumerhasbornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheoriesaboutwhypeoplehavehand
ledthiscrisisascalmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionatel
y,butthegovernmenthasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabi
litytoattractinvestment.Effortssofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
>Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuinginto
nextyear,butgettingnevermuchabovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagna
tion.
>Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpolitic
alwill.
>FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroduce
anewfiscalrule?They'vecutalot,that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroo
mtocutfurther.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchasraisingthepensionage.Thefl
attaxratemayhavetobeincreased.
>Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclea
rhowitcanescapethemiddleincometrap.Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,
they'renotprotesting.
>
>DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.Dmitriyev
saysCustomsreformisabrightspot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offe
ringopportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughonanything,onanyreform,sucha
sjudicialreform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensomemarginal
improvementshelpalot.
>
>AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?
>
>DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadepro
gress,judgingbyatleastanecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.
>
>Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto
,anditisbroadlysupportedacrossalmostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefth
atitdoesn'tneedtofocusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.
>
>Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreign
investorshavebeentreatedfairlyduringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasinthe
autoindustry,whichisafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,Begunsays,Russiaisbein
gpushedoutoftheglobalsupplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayeri
ntheglobalsupplychain.What'shappeningtothemiddleclass?
>
>Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsec
toristakinguptheslackwithbigprospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.The
mortgagemarketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby1.5percentperyear.Thisis
notanunusualrateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.
>
>Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstand
whythey'reimportant,butpracticallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportt
hem.
>
>Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthatthe
elitesdon'tneedorwantreform.Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenqu
estion.
>
>AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.
>
>GeneRumersaysheisatalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanel
istsandthepicturethatemergesfromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.
>
>ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.
Buttheneteffectofthat"good"policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedba
nks.Thisunderscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.
>
>Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureab
outthesizeofthestate.Thereareinfactmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthatt
elladifferentstory.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebankingsector.
>Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem
.Butatthesametimetheresultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.
>
>WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.
>
>HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitri
yevacknowledgesthatthewidespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.
>
>Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalec
isaskedaboutthecommunicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationi
stakingplaceinvariouschannels.Sheacknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutb
ack."Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."ThedecisionsonSyriaando
ntheNationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obama
andKerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.
>
>Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Is
machinerybeingbuiltuponeithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?
>
>ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentat
Seamechanismisworking,moreorless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazennes
sforbravery."
>
>Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
>Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontrolifth
eRussiansarelookingpastObama.RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrump
forpresident.
>
>AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
>Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasonthei
nformationfront,themilitaryreassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.
>
>AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepa
rtmentacceptRussia'soffertodiscussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedista
nceslimitslaidouttherein?
>
>TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefin
etheshorttermandlongtermgoals?
>
>KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit's
notunachievable.This(Putin)regimeisnotforever,afterall.
>TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesan
dcounteringinformationaggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.There
aresomethingswecouldaccomplish.MaybewecanextendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamaytu
rnouttobeaplusfortherelationship.
>
>BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeeni
nthelead.Aretheymoreconfident?
>
>KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountr
yanditsissuesshouldbemanagedbytheEuropeans.
>AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertothe
US.
>
>HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.There
aretwocontradictorynarratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisola
ted.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounteritspropaganda-why?
>
>Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses
.Shepointsoutthatwenowdescribethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"so
ft").
>
>AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?
Howdowekeeparelationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
>KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventually
hewillgo.
>
>SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?
>
>Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.
>
>WhydoweseeRussiaasparticularlyimportant?
>
>InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrend
sinpublicopinionandhighlightsthehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumb
ersdon'thavethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitivepoliticalsystem.Otherindicators
areheadingdowntopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.Thepr
otestmoodisnothighandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroup
s--horizontallinksamongprotestgroupsaren'ttakingshape.
>
>Thegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingisl
ikelytobeaseffectiveasCrimeawas.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyas
sociationwiththeaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmaypropuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit
.
>
>TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-t
ermfutureoftheSovietUnionandthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingto
happen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenweexplainthemafterthefact.Someofth
atanalysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.Lookinga
tcurrenttrendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assome
earlierspeakershavenoted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweak
anddivided.
>ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomake
thatchange?
>Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromf
oreignenemies.ThisisoneofPutin'smainjobs.
>Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,peop
lethoughtthingswouldbegettingbetter.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.Thischallenge
sPutin'sabilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
>ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceserv
ices,butthereareothers.Thestand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.This
makesitharderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
>Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedpr
otests.OnlyasmallnumberofsuchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'sco
ntrol.
>Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeen
undertakenjusttopropupPutin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeep
hispopularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiaisoverextended.
>IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesand
longtermcommitments.Therearegrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakeninto
account.
>Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite.
"IcanenvisionascenariothatgetsustoaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoe
sn'tmeanthesystemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosomechangesinpriority,butwon't
changethewayRussiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintotheWest
erncommunity.WewillneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.
>
>AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?Evenifanewleaders
tartsoutfollowinginPutin'sfootsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
>TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwill
bethere.Itwillhavetochange,butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.
>
>Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
>Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.W
eshouldn'tfocusonjustthetoplayerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.Thi
smaynotbeaclassiccoupscenario.Therecouldbeaguaranteedarrangementbehindthescenesth
atgetsPutintostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochangethe
systemorthecountrywillfallfartherbehind.
>
>TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryob
serves.MaybethisisthebestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproduc
esbadoutcomes.
>
>Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewho
thinkPutinistoosoft.RussiacouldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.
>
>AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughabout
what'sgoingoninsidetherepublics,includingprotests?
>Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.
>
>AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"
sofarhavebeenthefarright.Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikely
thatthanaconsensusforeconomicgrowth.
>
>TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.Bu
tthesecurityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-ta
kers.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasusedjudiciously.They
wereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'snorea
listicreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowriskto
benasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.Andthepeople
hereintheUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.
>
>VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddelibe
ratelyformaximumpopularity.Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumrating
s.
>
>Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
>Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas
,justastheydidin1999.
>It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothav
eseenitcoming.
>
>Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?
>
>Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthat
protestnow?HowdoesitaffectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?
>
>A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsent
iment.
>TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotest
ersasnon-Russian.TheKremlinismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthosepro
testslinkingupwithpoliticalprotests.
>
>AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,what
wehaveisafailureofimagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'tw
ehaveforeseenbothoftheseevents?
>
>GeneRumerasksVolkov:Isitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdom
esticpoliticsareTV,andCrimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?
>
>HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshav
echangedinRussia,300yearsofhistorytothecontrary.
>
>VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthema
indriverofdomesticpolitics(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobesee
nhowlongpeoplewillcontinuetosupporttheregime.PeoplebelievePutinwhenhesays"twoyear
s"forthecrisis.Theystilltrusthimaboutthis.Aslongasthissupportcontinuestheelitesw
illnotmoveagainstPutin.
>
>GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivi
ty,andfocusontheeconomy.ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,Russiai
snottheSovietUnion.
>And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablya
softpalacecoup.
>
>ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesA
lekseyArbatovoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandth
eUS.From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.PutinresentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dco
metopowerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutinwasbeingauthorit
arian,hewaspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includinga
rmscontrol,hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcession
shewouldnotgainrespectorequaltreatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmor
e.Sowhenhecamebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytogetrespectwastochallengetheWest,
eventhoughhehadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.Itwas
aninternalaswellasanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPu
tin.AndifUkrainesucceeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.Itwouldchallengethe
wholePutinregime.Themassprotestsof2011werethefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.In
Crimea,hetookrevengeontheWest.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defensethroughoffense
.ForawhiletherewasathoughtthattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Put
ininvoked"Novorossiya."Butitdidn'tworkandsoPutindroppedit.
>WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternal
lydriven.ThenRussiansgrewtoexpectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
>Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.Thee
ventsintheDonbaswerenotaclearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Mar
riagesendedasaresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoaboutUkraine.
>SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Rus
siadidsomethingthatonlytheUScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjih
adistshadnothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"Arbatovsays.Putinwasfightingcol
orrevolutionsinSyria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlike
stodothings.NowtheoperationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyr
iahasserveditspurpose.
>Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesigned
foraGDPratethatwasdoublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
>Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincann
otaffordtobeseenasweak,tobeseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.Heisdeescalating
tensionwiththeWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenasaretreat,asasignofw
eakness."Thisissoimportantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
>ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresigns
ofPutindeescalating.Thesearemajorstepstowardreconciliation.
>IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwan
ttobeisolationist.Russiaisanxiousforanendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,
movesagainstthesanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceisnowthesloganofthe
day.Butnotisolation.
>GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.
ThisisRussia'sbigdilemma.
>ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiat
ounfairtreatmentbyChina.
>Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovar
gues,thereare25percentwhoSTILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,consideringe
verything.
>Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitss
phereofinfluence.Russiaunderstandsequalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoa
ccount.Nomoredoublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,Russiathinksitcanaswe
ll.
>RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
>PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
>Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
>Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevand
Bortnikov.Decisionsarebeingmadeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
>Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sin
terests.ActionswilltakenwithoutregardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingthe
NATObuildup--areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
>Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikere
treat.
>TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCEob
serversontheborder.
>AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillb
enoresetwiththeWest.Buttherelationshipcanbemanaged.
>
>HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
>ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tnee
dtobe.
>
>GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiaha
sgoneaway.TheWestisseenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMiniste
rLavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotanexpansionistpower.Theyhaveazoneofpr
ivilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingbymilitary
means.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelar
us,Ukraine,andMoldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingi
ntothistightspaceandinvitingunpredictableoutcomes.
>
>Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.
>
>AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.
>
>AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattot
heBaltics.
>Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweaponsredu
ctionstoo.
>
>TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.Rus
siaisimportanttoAsia.CanweengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemorein
common.
>
>Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeourmutua
lworldviews.Inprinciplewecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcris
is.
>
>ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresou
rcesonarmsagainsteachother,needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sinthe
Arcticorelsewhere.
>
>RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbat
ov.PutincouldhaveagoodrelationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthat
isanunpredictablequality.
>LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitne
cessarytotryextrahardtobetoughonRussia.
>Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyh
aveforeachother.
>Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsi
notherareas.It'snotimportantuntoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSa
dministration.
>
>ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeit
selfknown.
>RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.
>
>CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaof
realmilitarycooperation,Arbatovsays.Arbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoeffo
rttotrytoresolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-Westconflictinyears,andneedsto
beresolved.
>JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmovebac
kin.SoapeacekeepingforcealongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,toke
epthesidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbeawaytogetsanctionsremoved.Itwoul
dbeanunprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentinthepost-
Sovietspace.
>
>Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
>ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsareb
ad.ButRussia,typically,hasnowswungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypass
ivetooverlybellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."
>
>ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedarolei
nthelatestconflict.RussiaismoreengagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangerous
there,dependingonUSpolicy.
>
>ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCEobserve
rsarelocated,Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,along
thewholeborder.ThiswouldremovequestionsaboutRussia'srole.
>
>
>
>SentfrommyiPad
From: ChristopherBort<chrisbort@me.com>
Senttime: 05/15/201605:56:38PM
To: ChrisBort<chrisjb1@ucia.gov>ChrisBort<chrisbort@gmail.com>robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

4TzLyRn+rKvUg=CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?

AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"new
normals."Atthesametime,wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Trum
p.

Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thave
foreseenPutin'spopularityashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'thav
eexpectedoilpricessolow.

Ourkeyquestions:
-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?

DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.Th
eflexibleexchangeratehasbeeneffective.
-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthef
all.
-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextyear
.Returntofourpercentgrowth,however,isunlikely.-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofco
mprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikelyuntilafter2018elections.Nosecretaboutw
hatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeaboutwhattodo.Theproblemislackofpolitical
will.
-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,forins
tance.Retoolingofindustryisunlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrecent
lycreatedisanopportunity.

MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstoftheBR
ICSexceptforBrazil's.Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbeen
twiceasbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanagedeffectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethis
timecomparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthatthepopulation
tookthebruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthiscri
sis,whereaspublicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttothe
highpoliticalsupportthegovernmenthashad.
Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincreas
ed.Atthesametime,theveryrichhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffectiv
e.
Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokeep
inflationdown.TheirapproachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They'veav
oidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemiddl
eincometrap?Don'tassumeitcan'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.The
hugeleapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusinessrankingsshowsthatRussiacanimp
lementneededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministrationf
orinstanceisratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslydis
cussed.
Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionallys
trongcorrelationbetweensupportforPutinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.Polit
icalsupportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomiccrisishasbecomedeep.
Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshasr
eachednewlows,andsupportforthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sownchari
smaandpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn'ttranslatedintoprotests,whichis"
amazing,"Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthantheyw
erein2010.Thisisaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.

ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRussia
'stightfiscalpolicyin2015forhelpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthatthecon
sumerhasbornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheoriesaboutwhypeoplehavehandle
dthiscrisisascalmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionately,
butthegovernmenthasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabili
tytoattractinvestment.Effortssofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuingintone
xtyear,butgettingnevermuchabovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagnati
on.
Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpolitical
will.
FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroducea
newfiscalrule?They'vecutalot,that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroom
tocutfurther.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchasraisingthepensionage.Theflat
taxratemayhavetobeincreased.
Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclear
howitcanescapethemiddleincometrap.Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,th
ey'renotprotesting.

DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.Dmitriyevsa
ysCustomsreformisabrightspot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offeri
ngopportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughonanything,onanyreform,suchas
judicialreform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensomemarginali
mprovementshelpalot.

AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?

DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadeprogr
ess,judgingbyatleastanecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.

Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto,
anditisbroadlysupportedacrossalmostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefthat
itdoesn'tneedtofocusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.

Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreignin
vestorshavebeentreatedfairlyduringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasintheau
toindustry,whichisafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,Begunsays,Russiaisbeing
pushedoutoftheglobalsupplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayerin
theglobalsupplychain.What'shappeningtothemiddleclass?

Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsecto
ristakinguptheslackwithbigprospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.Them
ortgagemarketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby1.5percentperyear.Thisisno
tanunusualrateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.

Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstandwh
ythey'reimportant,butpracticallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportthe
m.

Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthattheel
itesdon'tneedorwantreform.Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenques
tion.

AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.GeneRumersaysheis
atalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanelistsandthepicturetha
temergesfromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.

ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.B
uttheneteffectofthat"good"policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedbank
s.Thisunderscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.

Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureabou
tthesizeofthestate.Thereareinfactmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthattel
ladifferentstory.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebankingsector.
Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem.
Butatthesametimetheresultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.

WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.
HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitriye
vacknowledgesthatthewidespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.

Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalecis
askedaboutthecommunicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationis
takingplaceinvariouschannels.Sheacknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutbac
k."Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."ThedecisionsonSyriaandon
theNationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obamaan
dKerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.

Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Ism
achinerybeingbuiltuponeithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?

ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentatS
eamechanismisworking,moreorless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazenness
forbravery."

Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontrolifthe
RussiansarelookingpastObama.RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrumpfo
rpresident.

AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasontheinf
ormationfront,themilitaryreassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.

AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepart
mentacceptRussia'soffertodiscussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedistanc
eslimitslaidouttherein?

TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefine
theshorttermandlongtermgoals?

KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit'sn
otunachievable.This(Putin)regimeisnotforever,afterall.
TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesand
counteringinformationaggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.Therear
esomethingswecouldaccomplish.MaybewecanextendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamayturn
outtobeaplusfortherelationship.

BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeenin
thelead.Aretheymoreconfident?

KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountry
anditsissuesshouldbemanagedbytheEuropeans.
AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertotheU
S.

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Therea
retwocontradictorynarratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolate
d.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounteritspropaganda-why?

Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses.
Shepointsoutthatwenowdescribethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"soft
").

AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?Ho
wdowekeeparelationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventuallyh
ewillgo.

SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?

Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.WhydoweseeRussiaa
sparticularlyimportant?

InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrends
inpublicopinionandhighlightsthehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumber
sdon'thavethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitivepoliticalsystem.Otherindicatorsar
eheadingdowntopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.Theprot
estmoodisnothighandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroups-
-horizontallinksamongprotestgroupsaren'ttakingshape.

Thegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingislik
elytobeaseffectiveasCrimeawas.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyasso
ciationwiththeaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmaypropuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit.

TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-ter
mfutureoftheSovietUnionandthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingtoha
ppen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenweexplainthemafterthefact.Someofthat
analysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.Lookingat
currenttrendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assomee
arlierspeakershavenoted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweakan
ddivided.
ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomaketh
atchange?
Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromfor
eignenemies.ThisisoneofPutin'smainjobs.
Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,people
thoughtthingswouldbegettingbetter.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.Thischallenges
Putin'sabilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceservic
es,butthereareothers.Thestand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.Thism
akesitharderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedprot
ests.OnlyasmallnumberofsuchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'scont
rol.
Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeenu
ndertakenjusttopropupPutin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeeph
ispopularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiaisoverextended.
IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesandlo
ngtermcommitments.Therearegrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakenintoa
ccount.
Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite."I
canenvisionascenariothatgetsustoaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoesn
'tmeanthesystemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosomechangesinpriority,butwon'tc
hangethewayRussiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintotheWester
ncommunity.WewillneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.

AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?Evenifanewleadersta
rtsoutfollowinginPutin'sfootsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwillbe
there.Itwillhavetochange,butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.

Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.We
shouldn'tfocusonjustthetoplayerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.This
maynotbeaclassiccoupscenario.Therecouldbeaguaranteedarrangementbehindthescenesthat
getsPutintostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochangethesy
stemorthecountrywillfallfartherbehind.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryobse
rves.MaybethisisthebestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproduces
badoutcomes.

Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewhoth
inkPutinistoosoft.RussiacouldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.

AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughaboutwh
at'sgoingoninsidetherepublics,includingprotests?
Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.

AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"so
farhavebeenthefarright.Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikelyt
hatthanaconsensusforeconomicgrowth.

TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.But
thesecurityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-take
rs.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasusedjudiciously.Theywe
reneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'snoreali
sticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisktob
enasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.Andthepeoplehe
reintheUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.

VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddelibera
telyformaximumpopularity.Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumratings.

Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas,
justastheydidin1999.
It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothave
seenitcoming.

Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?

Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthatpr
otestnow?HowdoesitaffectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?

A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsentim
ent.
TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotester
sasnon-Russian.TheKremlinismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthoseprote
stslinkingupwithpoliticalprotests.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwe
haveisafailureofimagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twe
haveforeseenbothoftheseevents?

GeneRumerasksVolkov:Isitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdomes
ticpoliticsareTV,andCrimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshave
changedinRussia,300yearsofhistorytothecontrary.

VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthemain
driverofdomesticpolitics(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobeseen
howlongpeoplewillcontinuetosupporttheregime.PeoplebelievePutinwhenhesays"twoyears"
forthecrisis.Theystilltrusthimaboutthis.Aslongasthissupportcontinuestheeliteswil
lnotmoveagainstPutin.

GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivity
,andfocusontheeconomy.ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,Russiais
nottheSovietUnion.
And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablyaso
ftpalacecoup.

ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesAle
kseyArbatovoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandthe
US.From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.PutinresentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dcome
topowerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutinwasbeingauthoritar
ian,hewaspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includingarm
scontrol,hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcessions
hewouldnotgainrespectorequaltreatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmore.
Sowhenhecamebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytogetrespectwastochallengetheWest,ev
enthoughhehadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.Itwasa
ninternalaswellasanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPuti
n.AndifUkrainesucceeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.Itwouldchallengethewh
olePutinregime.Themassprotestsof2011werethefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.InCr
imea,hetookrevengeontheWest.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defensethroughoffense.
ForawhiletherewasathoughtthattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Putin
invoked"Novorossiya."Butitdidn'tworkandsoPutindroppedit.
WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternally
driven.ThenRussiansgrewtoexpectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.Theeve
ntsintheDonbaswerenotaclearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Marri
agesendedasaresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoaboutUkraine.
SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Russi
adidsomethingthatonlytheUScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjihad
istshadnothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"Arbatovsays.Putinwasfightingcolor
revolutionsinSyria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlikes
todothings.NowtheoperationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyria
hasserveditspurpose.
Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesignedf
oraGDPratethatwasdoublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincannot
affordtobeseenasweak,tobeseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.Heisdeescalatingte
nsionwiththeWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenasaretreat,asasignofwea
kness."Thisissoimportantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresignso
fPutindeescalating.Thesearemajorstepstowardreconciliation.
IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwant
tobeisolationist.Russiaisanxiousforanendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,mo
vesagainstthesanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceisnowthesloganoftheda
y.Butnotisolation.
GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.T
hisisRussia'sbigdilemma.
ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiato
unfairtreatmentbyChina.
Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovargu
es,thereare25percentwhoSTILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,consideringeve
rything.
Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitssph
ereofinfluence.Russiaunderstandsequalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoacc
ount.Nomoredoublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,Russiathinksitcanaswell
.
RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevandB
ortnikov.Decisionsarebeingmadeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sinte
rests.ActionswilltakenwithoutregardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingtheNA
TObuildup--areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikeretr
eat.
TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCEobse
rversontheborder.
AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillbe
noresetwiththeWest.Buttherelationshipcanbemanaged.

HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tneed
tobe.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahas
goneaway.TheWestisseenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinister
Lavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotanexpansionistpower.Theyhaveazoneofpriv
ilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingbymilitaryme
ans.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus
,Ukraine,andMoldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingint
othistightspaceandinvitingunpredictableoutcomes.

Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.

AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.

AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattothe
Baltics.
Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweaponsreduct
ionstoo.

TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.Russi
aisimportanttoAsia.CanweengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemoreinco
mmon.

Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeourmutual
worldviews.Inprinciplewecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcrisis
.

ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresourc
esonarmsagainsteachother,needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sintheAr
cticorelsewhere.

RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbatov
.PutincouldhaveagoodrelationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthatis
anunpredictablequality.
LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitnece
ssarytotryextrahardtobetoughonRussia.
Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyhav
eforeachother.
Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsin
otherareas.It'snotimportantuntoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSadm
inistration.

ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeitse
lfknown.
RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.

CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaofr
ealmilitarycooperation,Arbatovsays.Arbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoeffort
totrytoresolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-Westconflictinyears,andneedstob
eresolved.
JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmoveback
in.SoapeacekeepingforcealongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,tokeep
thesidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbeawaytogetsanctionsremoved.Itwould
beanunprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentinthepost-So
vietspace.

Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsarebad
.ButRussia,typically,hasnowswungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypassiv
etooverlybellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."

ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedarolein
thelatestconflict.RussiaismoreengagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangeroust
here,dependingonUSpolicy.

ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCEobservers
arelocated,Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,alongth
ewholeborder.ThiswouldremovequestionsaboutRussia'srole.

SentfrommyiPad
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/15/201612:00:59PM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: JeffreyGoldbergandMarkLandleronthe'HillaryDoctrine'-TheAtlantic

IsThereaHillaryDoctrine?

Ithasseemedtome,foraslongasIvebeenwatchingHillaryClintonandBarackObamamakeforeignandnational-
securitypolicy,thatthedifferencesinoutlookandapproachbetweenthetwoofthemarefundamentalanddramatic.I
wouldcallthesedifferencesprofound,butIdontwanttobeaccusedofhyperbole.ItisnotjustthatClintonhasabias
towardactionintheinternationalarena,andthatObamaisfarmorehesitant,farmoreaware(tooaware,intheeyesof
critics)ofthedownsideofactionitisthattherearebasicdifferencesinthewaytheyunderstandAmericasroleinthe
world,andthequalitiesthatmakeAmericaexceptional.Theyalsodiffer,tomyeye,intheirunderstandingofAmerican
indispensability,andoftherelationshipbetweenpoweranddiplomacy.

TheonlypersonIknowwhospendsmoretimethinkingaboutthedispositionalandideologicaldifferencesbetween
ObamaandClintonthanIdoisMarkLandler,theNewYorkTimesreporterwhohascoveredtheObamaWhiteHouse
andtheClintonStateDepartmentandwhorecentlypublishedabook,AlterEgos(itsverylongandserioussubtitle:
HillaryClinton,BarackObama,andtheTwilightStruggleOverAmericanPower),thatexploresthesedifferences
throughtheprism,mainly,oftheMiddleEastcrisesthathaveconsumedtheObamaadministration.Landlerhaswrittenan
excellentbook,thedefinitiveexaminationtodateof,amongotherthings,apresidentwhohastriedtoextracttheU.S.
fromtheMiddleEast(withoutmuchsuccess,itgoesalmostwithoutsaying).AlterEgosisalsothemostauthoritative
attempttoexplainObamascomplicatedrelationshipwithhisfirst-termsecretaryofstate,athwartedcompetitor-turned-
stafferwho,ifshewinsthepresidencythisyear,willinheritaworldthatisinsomewaysasmessyastheoneObama
himselfinheritedfromGeorgeW.Bush.

LandlerandIdontseeeye-to-eyeonthedifferencesbetweenObamaandClintonhethinksthatshewillmakeforeign
policyinamorecautiousmannerthanIbelieveshewill.Itendtothink,mostofthetime,atleast,thatherLibya
experiencedidnotdiminishherardorforthearena.OnUkraineandSyria,forinstance,shethinksinmoreovertly
interventionisttermsthandoesObama.InaninterviewIconductedwithClintontwosummersago(onethatdrew
attentionforherimplicitcriticismofObamasunofficialforeign-policyslogan,Dontdostupidshit),sheconvincedme
thatshe,unlikeObama,hastheheartofaColdWarrior.InwhatItooktobeanothershotatObama,shesaid,You
know,whenyouredownonyourself,andwhenyouarehunkeringdownandpullingback,yourenotgoingtomakeany
betterdecisionsthanwhenyouwereaggressively,belligerentlyputtingyourselfforward.Oneissueisthatwedonteven
tellourownstoryverywellthesedays.

Ididnthavemuchdoubtabouttheidentityoftheweinherstatement.Irespondedtoherassertionbysayingsomething
Ibelievedeeply,whichisthatAmerica,inthelastcentury,savedcivilization.Ithought,ItoldClinton,that,defeating
fascismandcommunismisaprettybigdeal.

Sherespondedwithunvarnishedenthusiasm:ThatshowIfeel!Maybethisisold-fashioned.Okay,Ifeelthatthismight
beanold-fashionedidea,butImabouttofindout,inmorewaysthanone.

Obama,ontheotherhand,hasadifferentunderstandingofindispensability(youcanreadaboutObamasforeignpolicy
here,ifyoureinterested).Obamaisalsotoomeasured,tooambivalentandguarded,totoutAmericasachievementsin
anuncomplicatedway.(HewillseldomscoldanothercountryforitsbadbehaviorwithoutfirstassertingthattheU.S.is
farfromperfect,andprovidingexamplesofAmericasimperfections.)
LandlerandI,inarecentconversation,discussedhistheoryofthecase,whichisthatbiography,chronology,and
geographyaredestiny.Nowyoureintrigued,right?Soreadon.Thisisaneditedandcondensedtranscriptofour
conversation.

JeffreyGoldberg:Letsjustgetsomethingoutoftheway.TheBenRhodescontroversy.Putasidealltheextraneous
issuesIdontthinkthattheadministrationevertriedtohidethefact,beforetheelectionoftheostensiblymoderate
[PresidentHassan]Rouhani,thatitwantedtodoadealwithIran.AmIwrong?

MarkLandler:Thispuzzledme.TheWhiteHouseseffortstoopenachanneltoIranthroughtheOmanisbefore
Rouhaniselectionwerewell-knownandhavebeenreportedonbyanumberofjournalists.Inmybook,Idigintothe
earliestrootsoftheOmanchannelbecauseIthinkitrevealsthedivergentapproachesofBarackObama,HillaryClinton,
andespeciallyJohnKerrytowardIran.KerryandObamaweremoreintriguedbythepossibilityofsecrettalksClinton
wasmoreskeptical.IfBenwastryingtomanufactureanarrativethattheIrandiplomacybeganwithHassanRouhani,he
wasntverysuccessful,atleastwithme.

Goldberg:LetsgotoObamaandClinton.Ithinktheyarequitedifferentinthewaytheyapproachtheworld.Some
peoplearearguingtoyouthattheyrenotdifferentatall.Explainwhereyoucomeoutonthis.

Landler:Acommonargumentisthat,onthespectrumofAmericanforeign-policythought,fromtotaldovetototal
neoconservative,theyrebothliberalinternationalists.Theybothbelieveinrules-basedordertheyrebothabout
preservingthepost-WorldWarIIworldthatTrumanandAchesonandothersbuilt.Andtheysitclosetoeachotheronthe
spectrum.Butmyargumentisthatifyoulookattheirinstinctsandreflexesandthewaythattheyareapttorespondtoa
crisis,theyjustcomeatitverydifferently,andthisisinpartbecausetheycomefromverydifferentplacesbothintermsof
timeandgeography.Obamagrewupinthe70s,andhehadthisitinerantexistence,livinginIndonesiaforaperiod

Goldberg:LookingatAmericafromtheoutsidein

Landler:LookingatAmericafromoutsidein,assortofanexpatriatesviewofAmerica

Goldberg:AndHillaryisliterallyinthemiddleofAmericalookingout

Landler:Yes.Shesintheheartland,butalsointhe1950s,withaconservativeNavypettyofficerfather.Andsoshe
viewedAmericaasacountrythatwasaforceforgood,thatAmericaninterventionsgenerallycouldbeapositiverather
thananegativething.AndIthinkObamawasmuchmoreskepticalaboutthat.

Goldberg:Dispositionally,isHillaryclosertoJohnMcCainorBarackObama?

Landler:Inbasicdisposition,JohnMcCain.Thoughinpracticalterms,givenherpragmatism,Ithinkshewouldgovern
morecautiouslythanMcCainwouldgovern.

Goldberg:YouveheardwhatObamasaysaboutLibyawetriedtodoeverythingright,butitdidntwork,andthis
informedhisdecision-makingaboutSyria.ShewasahawkonLibya,butdoyouthinktheresachanceitsomehow
changedherreflexes?

Landler:IfyoulookatthewayshesapproachedSyria,startingoutforward-leaningonaidingtherebelsbackin2012
andcontinuingtofavorano-flyzonetoday,IwouldarguethatshestillbelievesthatLibyacouldendwell

Goldberg:Shethinksthateventoday?

Landler:Eventoday,thatitcouldendwell.MyviewonObamaisandyoumayormaynotagreewiththisthathe
lookedatLibyaanditconfirmedallthepreexistingproblemshehadwithinterventionism.
Goldberg:Heneverreallywantedtodoit.

Landler:Hedidntwanttodoit,andthenhedidit,andthenitturnedoutbadly,andthisconfirmedhisinstincts.

Goldberg:Maybeitturnedoutbadlyinpartbecauseheneverthoughtthatitcouldworkinthefirstplace.

Landler:Ithinkshewouldarguethatourimpulsewasright,anditwasmessierthanitshouldhavebeenforawhole
varietyofreasons,butthatitsstillaworkinprogressandimportantlyitshouldntpreventusfromdoingsimilarthings
indifferentplaces.AndifyoulookatSyria,IbelieveshethinkstheresmoreofaprospectfortheU.S.tomakea
differenceonthegroundthanhedoes.

Goldberg:Sofollowthisthrough.January,2017,letssayshebecomespresident.WhatcouldchangeinU.S.Syria
policy?

Landler:WellIthinkthatsheswanted,fromtheverystart,todosomethingtochangetheequationontheground.And
PresidentObama,Ithink,concludedyoucouldntdoenoughtochangetheequationwithoutamajormilitaryintervention.
Ithinkshewillatleastexplorethepossibilityofano-flyzoneandcreatinghumanitariancorridors.AndIthinkthatshe
wouldbewillingtosubstantiallyexpandthelevelofaidweregivingtorebelgroups[forinstancewith]MANPADS,and
thingslikethat.

Goldberg:Inyourunderstanding,shewasneverconvincedofObamasargumentthatiftheU.S.givesthemMANPADS
andthenoneisusedbysomeonetoshootdownanElAljet

Landler:Ithinksheworriedaboutthatbecauseshewaspartoftheoriginaldebateonwhatkindsofarmsshouldgoto
therebels.AndatthatpointeveryoneagreedthatMANPADSwereoutofthequestionbecauseofthedangerthatyou
talkedabout.ButIjustwondernow,facedwithasituationthatsjustcatastrophicallyworsethanitwasfouryearsago,
[if]shewouldbewillingtotakethatextrastep.IcantsayIknowthat.Imsurmisingthisbasedonthepublicstatements
shesmade.ShecallsitanintensificationandaccelerationofObamasstrategy,butthatcantakeonlysomanyforms.

Goldberg:HowhasheevolvedinhisunderstandingofAmericaninterventionism,andhowhassheevolved?Orhasher
thinkingnotevolved?Didtheyinfluenceeachothersthinkinginanyway?

Landler:Itsdifficulttoweighthesebecauseoneisthecommander-in-chiefandtheotherwasastaffmember.Butifyou
lookatthedebatesthatunfoldedovertime,sheprevailedinthecaseofLibyaanddidnotprevailinthecaseofSyria.So
hedrewsomeverystronglessonsfromLibyaandcouldnotbeswayedwhenitcametoSyria.Inhercase,Ithinkthat,
becauseshesolderandhasalongerframeofreference,alotofthelessonsshelearnedgobackmuchfurtherthanhis.I
think,forexample,whenshetalksaboutSyria,shecantalkaboutaKosovoprecedentinamuchmorecomfortableway
thanhedoes.SohemayhaveevolvedmorebutbecausehewasstartingwithIraq,andcameinwithrelativelylittle
experienceasaforeignpolicypractitioneroreventhinker,whereasshehadalreadyhad15or20yearsofeyewitness
experiencewithwhichtowork.WhenshethoughtaboutSyria,shedidntjustthinkaboutIraq,shethoughtalotaboutthe
Balkans.IdontknowhowmuchPresidentObamathoughtabouttheBalkanswhenhethoughtaboutanyofthe
interventionsduringhispresidency.

Goldberg:YouquoteJakeSullivan[Clintonsforeign-policyadviser]towardtheendofthebooksayingthatthe2008
Hillaryforeign-policymuscularitydidntworkforherthen,butthat[it]wouldworkbetternow,inthiscampaign.Doyou
thinkthatheisrightaboutthat?OrisObamaactuallyintunewiththeAmericanpeopleandwheretheyareonmattersof
foreignengagementmorethanHillary?IsuspectyouhighlightedthatJakequotebecauseyouprobablyhaveyourdoubts
aboutit.

Landler:Well,Ido.AndinfactIsaidintheepiloguethatitremainstobeseenwhetherhermoodmatchestheAmerican
publicorwhetherherinstinctsmatchtheAmericanpublic.JakewasspeakingintheaftermathoftheParisandSan
Bernardinoattacks.Atthatmoment,therewasnewpollingdataoutfromCNNandfromothersthatshowedforthefirst
timeinalongtimethatamajorityofAmericansfavoredsendinggroundtroopstoIraqandSyria.AndJakewassaying
thatinthatveryfraughtmomenttherewasarethinkingunderway.

Goldberg:Butthosemomentsareveryephemeral.

Landler:Yes,thesemomentsarefleeting.Thefurtherawayyougetfromanynational-securitycrisis,themoreAmericans
tendtofallbackintotheirpreexistingpatterns.SoImnotatallpersuaded.Andfurthermore,ifyoulistencarefullytoa
guylikeTrumpinthatforeign-policyspeechhegaverecently,Idontthinkhespersuaded.Imean,thatspeech,forallits
contradictionsandincoherence,madeaninterestingpoint,whichwas:Wereoutofthenation-buildingbusiness,andIm
notlookingtogetusintoanewwar.

Goldberg:Well,hetalkedasifObamahadbeeninthenation-buildingbusiness,whichisabsurd.

Landler:Whichisnonsense.ButwhatImsayingis:Obamaclearlyfeelsthathehashisfingeronthepulseofwhere
Americansareonthisissue.Andthatswhyhessereneanddoesntmindthumbinghisnoseattheforeign-policy
establishment,becausehethinkstheyretheonesthatareoutofstep,nothim.

Goldberg:Doyouagree?

Landler:Ithinkthathesbeenprettygoodatgaugingpublicopiniononthis.Theinterestinglargerquestionthat[the
dispositionallyinterventionisthistorian]BobKaganandIinterviewedBobKaganforthebookraisedisthatin2008
whenObamawaselected,thiscountrywaslivingonstrategicfumes,thatalloftheindispensiblenationrhetoricjustno
longerappealedtopeopleanymore.AndObamacorrectlytappedintothat.Americanswerejustexhaustedandnolonger
willing.

Goldberg:Thewhole,WereAmerica,wemustdothis,argumentnolonghasmuchsway.

Landler:Ithinkthatsright.ObamabelievesAmericadoeshavetoactwhenvitalnationalinterestsareinplay.Buthe
definesvitalnationalinterestsmuchmorenarrowlythanalotoftheforeign-policyestablishment.Oneofthethingsinmy
bookthatIthoughtwasatellingmomentwasadinnerhehadwithformerofficialsandforeign-policyexperts.Theywere
talkingaboutUkraine,andObamaasked,WillsomeonepleasetellmewhatAmericasvitalnationalinterestisin
Ukraine?And[BrookingsInstitutionPresident]StrobeTalbottwasjustsortofslack-jawed.Tosomeonelikehim,who
representstheforeign-policyestablishment,theideathattheU.S.wouldntimmediatelyrushtothedefenseofaformer
Sovietsatelliteisunthinkable.ButObamawasmerelypointingouttheobvious,whichwasthatourtradewithUkraineis
miniscule,andUkrainemeanssomuchmoretoPutinandRussiathanitdoestousthatRussiawoulddouble-downand
triple-downonanythingwedid.

Goldberg:Itswhathetoldmecoreintereststrumpperipheralinterests,andletsnotmakebelieveotherwise.

Landler:Andletsbewillingtowalkaway.

Goldberg:ButwouldHillaryClintoneversaythat?

Landler:Shewouldneversayitoutloud.Shemightsayitquietly.Butshewouldalso,Ithink,instinctively,wanttodo
moretopreventthatoutcome.Andthatswhyshestoldherfriendsshewouldsupportlethaldefensiveweaponstothe
Ukrainianarmy.Andthatis,bytheway,apositionthatmanyof[Obamas]advisersalsohad.

Goldberg:IagreewithyouthatherinstinctsaremoreMcCainishthanObamaish,butthequestionis,howconstrained
willshebeaspresidentbyrecentAmericanhistory,therecenthistoryofAmericaninterventions?
Landler:Well,itstherightquestiontoask.Peoplelovetopointoutsixmonthsintoanynewpresidencythisalways
happensthedegreeofcontinuitywiththeprecedingpresident.WithPresidentObama,itwasthefactthathelikedusing
dronesjustasBushlikedusingdrones.WithClinton,itmayturnoutthat,justasObamadidntlikemessyforeign
engagements,wellseesixmonthsintoherpresidencythatshesnotexactlymarchingintoothercountries.

Goldberg:AlthoughifshedidactuallyuptheanteinSyria,ormaybeinaplacelikeUkraine,itcouldbeinterpretedasa
decisivebreak.

Landler:Yes,thatcouldbetrue.And,again,itshardformetopredictbecauseshesasituationalist,andshellweigh
eachoneofthesethingsseparately.Idontthinkshellcomeinondayonewiththeideathatweneedtoripupthe
Obamaplaybook.ThisisnotlikeObamacominginafterBushandsayingthatthisisanewera,andwearenowmending
fencesandwindingdownwars.Shescertainlynotgoingtocomeinanddothat.Iwonder,though,whethershewillcome
inwithamoreenergeticpro-engagementvibethanPresidentObamahashad.

Goldberg:Engagementwith?

Landler:Allkindsofpeople.Imean,forexample,IthinkshelltrytohaveadifferentrelationshipwithIsrael.Wecanget
intothattoo.Itsinaseparatecategory,though.

Goldberg:Wellitsaseparatecategorybecauseitsanissuethatisadomesticpolitics[one]aswell.Myassumptionis
that,ifshebecomespresident,thatinMarchof2017shesgoingonwhatyoucouldcallaStabilizationTour,a10-capital
tour,fromSeoulandTokyo,toAbuDhabiandRiyadh,andJerusalem,and

Landler:AndmaybeastopinKiev,whileshesatit.

Goldberg:Goodpoint.AndWarsaw,andRiga,andParisandLondon,forthatmatter.Justtosayheresmyphone
number,werecool,dontworry,Imnotgoingtobecriticizingyouinpublic,Imnotgoingtocallyouafreeriderin
public.Butthatsanadjustment,acalibration,thatsnotabreakindoctrine.IsthereaHillaryClintonDoctrine,otherthan
beingasituationist?

Landler:Idontthinktheresacleardoctrine,justasthereisntonewithObama.Ithoughtitwasinterestingthat,inmy
research,theonetimeIfoundevidencethatherpeoplewerethinkingaboutaDoctrine,acapital-DDoctrine,wasin
Libya.AfterthecollapseofQaddafi,therewassometalkwithinhercircleabouthowshewasgoingtogetoutinfrontof
thisandgetcreditforit.AndJakeSullivansaidinanemailtoher,Werewritinganop-edandweshouldthink
ambitiouslyalongthelinesofaClintonDoctrine.AndIwonderedbythatwhetherhemeantaformofaggressive
engagement,interventionwhennecessary,butonethatinvolvedworkingwithawidevarietyofactors.Becauseifyou
remember,thewholehallmarkoftheLibyapolicywas,wehavetheArabLeagueonboard,wehavetheEuropeanson
board.Andshewastheonethatputallthattogether.Assecretaryofstate,shedidallthosetrips,andmadeallthose
phonecalls,andhadallthosemeetings.Sotheyweregivingher,internally,agreatdealofcreditforthecoalition.Libya
couldhavebeenabigpartofherdoctrine.

Goldberg:DoyouthinksheresentsObamaforlosinginterestinLibya,andbeinginsufficientlycommitted?Andvice
versa,maybe?DoyouthinkObamaresentsHillaryandtheotherpeople,fromTonyBlinkenandBenRhodesto
SamanthaPowerandGayleSmith,whopushedhimintosomethinghedidntwanttodo?

Landler:IdontthinktherewaseverthatmuchevidencethathewasveryengagedaftertheNATOoperationended.
Andfrankly,giventheownershipthatshehadoverthepolicy,itwasreallymoreuptohertostayengaged.AndIaskthe
questionofwhethershedisengaged.Aftertheinitialperiod,whenthingslookedliketheywereunfoldinginafairly
optimisticway,IalwaysthoughtitwascuriousthatshehadnoemailcontactwithAmbassadorStevens.[ChrisStevens
wastheAmericanambassadortoLibya,whowaskilledintheattackonthediplomaticoutpostinBenghaziinSeptember
2012.]

Goldberg:Thatwasveryinterestingmomentinyourbook.Ididntrealizethatshewasntincommunicationwithhim,
givenwherehewasposted.

Landler:Ithoughtthatthiswascurious.Somyquestionis,wassheherselfsomewhatdistracted,andhadshemovedon
tothenextchallenge?IfImPresidentObamaandImlookingatthis,Imthinking,Well,yougotmeintothis,soyou
shouldkeepbearingdownonit.

Goldberg:ShewasnttalkingtoStevens,theambassador,aboutLibya,butasyoupointoutinthebook,shewastalking
tosomeoneelsequiteabitaboutLibya,SidneyBlumenthal.IsSidneyBlumenthalgoingtohaveaprominentforeign-
policyroleinhernextadministration?

Landler:Idontknowifhewouldhaveaformalrole,butitscleartomethataformaltitledoesntmatter.Ifhedoesnt
haveaformalrole,hellcontinuetohavetheinformalrolethathehadthroughouthertermassecretary.Andthatrole,its
clearfromlookingattheemailsthathavebeenreleased,wasextraordinarilywide-ranging.Notjustthepoliticaladvicehe
wasgivingherandthebureaucraticadvicehewasgivingher,buttheothervoiceshewasbringingtothetable.

Goldberg:AndhewasactinglikeherintelligenceofficerforLibya.

Landler:Right,alotofthoseLibyaemailsfromBlumenthalwereactuallydraftedbythisshadowyCIAguy,Tyler
Drumheller,buthewasnttheonlyperson.Blumenthalwouldspendalotoftimebringingothervoicestoherattention,
andonotherissuesthathereallycaredabout.

Goldberg:Well,hewouldbefunnelingaconstantstreamofeitheranti-Israel,oranti-Netanyahu,commentary.Doyou
thinkthismeansanythingaboutthewayshewouldactuallymanagethisfile?Imean,peoplelikeus,wemakethis
assumptionthatshewould,toborrowaword,resetrelationswithNetanyahu,assuminghesstillprimeminister.And
whenIlastspoketoheraboutthisgeneralissue,shewassoundingveryhawkish,morehawkishobviouslythanObama.
Ontheotherhand,SidneyBlumenthal,Anne-MarieSlaughter,TomPickering,theyresendingherthisconstantstreamof
prettyhardcoreanti-Israelmaterial,sofaraswecanseefromthereleasedemails.Doyouthinkshedmoveleftonthis
issueifshebecamepresident?

Landler:IthinkinthiscasethatshedbemoreinclinedtotakeherleadfromBillClintonthanfromSidneyBlumenthal.

Goldberg:AndHaimSaban?

Landler:AndHaimSaban,obviously.IdosubscribetotheideathatshewouldseedrawingclosetoIsrael,closerto
Israel,asavaluablethingtodoforavarietyofreasons.Thisdoesntmean,bytheway,thattherewouldntbemore
tension,andevenantagonism,becauseshegaveaninterviewrecentlyinwhichshesaidthatanagreementbetweenthe
IsraelisandthePalestinianswouldstillbeoneofhertoppriorities.Andifshesseriousaboutpursuingthat,itshardto
pursuethatfull-scalewithoutantagonizingthecurrentIsraeligovernment.

Goldberg:MuchofyourbookisaboutMiddleEasterncatastrophes.ButyoudealextensivelywiththepivottoAsia.Do
youthinkthatHillaryClintonwillfigureoutawayinawaythatObamahasnttoputtheMiddleEastinabox,sothat
shecanfocusonotherthings?Doyouthinkshellsucceedincontrollingthis,wherehehasfailed?

Landler:ThelastfiveorsixpresidentshavefailedtoputtheMiddleEastinabox.Youknow,itsimpossibletopredict
thefuture,butIhaveasinkingfeelingthattheMiddleEastwilloccupythesamecentralpositioninthenextpresidencythat
itdidinthisone.Justlookatthesituationonthegroundtoday.TheSyrianconflictislikelytogetworsebeforeitgets
better.WiththeIrannucleardeal,willitplayadestabilizingrole,asthecriticsbelieve?Ordoesitactuallyrightthebalance
intheregionandproduceakindofstabilitythecoldpeacethatPresidentObamahopesfor?
Goldberg:Sothequestionis:IraninrecentweekshasdonevariousprovocativethingstheincidentwiththeNavy,
ballistic-missiletesting,therecalcitrantstatementsmadebythesupremeleader.Theresalsoanarrativedevelopingthat
thisadministrationwilldoanythingitcantopreservetheletterofthedeal,ifnotthespiritofthedeal.Doyouthinkthat
HillarywillhaveanewsetofpoliciesinplacethatwillmeanlesstoleranceforIranianshenanigans?

Landler:Ithinkthatshesgoingtopositionherselfastheenforcerofthisdeal,andifyougobackandlookattherole
shesplayedinIraniandiplomacythroughout,shesalmostalwaysplayedthebadcop.Shestheonewhoputtogetherthe
sanctionscoalition.

Goldberg:Doyoucreditherwithdoingmoreworkonthatthananyoneelse?

Landler:Yes,Ithinkso.[NationalSecurityAdvisor]SusanRicedidalotattheU.N.PresidentObamadidalotwiththe
Russians.ButHillarywas,withtheChineseinparticular,criticalinputtingthattogether.Ifyougobacktotheearliestdays
oftheIrannegotiation,whenitwasstillasecretchannelinOman,Hillarywasfarmoredubious,andmuchmorereluctant
togetpulledintoit.Anditwas,infact,JohnKerryandObamawhowerereallyleaningintoit.AndsoIdothinkshe
wouldcomeinandprobablywanttoputsomenewprogramsinplace,maybetherewouldbeawillingnesstoactmore
swiftlyonsanctionsagainstIranincaseofotherviolations,ballisticmissiles,forinstance,orinassemblingcoalitionof
countriestotrytostymieIran.AndIthinkthatunlikePresidentObama,who,Ibelieve,whateverhesaidpublicly,
privatelyhopedthatthedealwouldbeatransformationalevent,Idontthinkshehasanyillusionsaboutthat.Ithinkshe
assumesthatwecontinuetohavethisfundamentallyantagonisticrelationshipwithIran.

Goldberg:Acounterfactual:IfClintonhadstayedonforasecondtermassecretaryofstate,wouldwehaveanIrandeal
now?

Landler:Itsinteresting.Ididntposethatcounterfactualquestion,Iaskthequestionofwhether,ifHillaryClinton,had
beenelectedin2008insteadofObama,wouldtherehavebeenadeal?AndIthinkthatitspossibletoarguethatthere
wouldnthavebeen.

OneoftheinterestingthingsthatcameoutofmyreportingisthatshewouldhavefavoredhittingtheIranianswithnew
sanctionsafterHassanRouhaniwaselectedpresident.ThiswastheMenendez-Kirklegislation,which,ifyourecall,
PresidentObamamaneuvereddesperatelytopreventtheSenatefrompassing,becausehisviewwasthatitwouldblow
upthenegotiations.IknowthatHillarybecauseshestoldpeoplethiswouldhavefavoredsqueezingthem.Inthe
wordsofoneofheraides,Squeezethemagainandseewhathappens.Remember,thepresidentwastheonepushing
thedeal,andHillaryClintonwasnothingifnotaloyalimplementerofherbossspolicy.Soiftheorderonthetablewasto
getthisdealdone,Ithinkitspossibleshewouldhavegottenitdoneassecretaryofstate.Thequestioniswhethershe
wouldhavepursueditaspresident,andthereIhavemydoubts.

Goldberg:Ifshebecomespresident,whodoyouthinkwouldbehermostimportantforeign-policyadvisers,andsources
ofideas?

Landler:Yes,well,BillClintonisnumberone.Andthenshellhaveverytrustedaides,JakeSullivanatthetopofthatlist.
Andthenshehasthisextremelywide,heterodoxcircleofcontactsthatshellbepullinginformationfrom.Andthatll
includeBobKagan,itllincludeSidBlumenthal,itllincludeStrobeTalbott,itllinclude[formerU.S.ambassadorto
Israel]MartinIndyk.AndIthinkyouseesomesurprisingnamesandfaces.AnotherdifferencewithObamaisthatshesa
realspongeforinformationlikeherhusband.Forheritsanacquiredskill,forherhusbanditcamenaturally.Ithink
PresidentObamawasmorelikelytothinkthroughissueshimself,andreadalot,asopposedtocastinganextremelywide
net.Ithinkinhercase,shesmoreapttotalktoRepublicans.IthinkshellconsultJohnMcCain.Iwritealotabout,in
thisbook,aboutGeneralJackKeane,whosaprettyhardlineretiredfour-stargeneral.
Goldberg:Shelikesthenail-eatinggenerals,likeJimMattis.Theseguysarealsointernationalists,andstrongalliance
guys.IssheoutofstepwiththemoodoftheAmericanpeople,who,Imtold,atleast,dontwanttobeinvolvedwith
verymuchinternationally?

Landler:ImnotsureIdisagreewithyou.ImeanIdontthinkitstheperfectmomentforsomeonewhoisashawkishas
Ibelievesheis.ButyoualsohavetoentertainthedarkpossibilitythattherecouldbeaterroristattackonAmericansoil,
andthen,overnight,thesituationisdramaticallytransformed.

Goldberg:Well,ifthathappens,Trumphasaverygoodchanceofbecomingpresident,giventhenationalmood.Butlets
talkaboutTrump.Inhisrecentforeign-policyspeech,heattackedObamafromtherightandHillaryfromtheleft.What
wouldyouimaginehislinegoingforwardisgoingtobeonHillarythatshesawarmonger,orthatshesweakon
terrorism,orbothatthesametime?

Landler:Itwillprobablybesomecombination.

Goldberg:Hesnotboundbytherulesofconsistency,obviously.

Landler:WhatinterestedmeaboutthatspeechisthattherewerealsoechoesofObamainit.Imean,whenhetalks
aboutresettingrelationshipswithRussiaokay,well,wetriedthatoncebefore.Andthefree-riderthingisverymuch
there,aswasthecontemptfortheforeign-policyestablishment.WheredidIhearthatbefore?InaJeffGoldberg
interview.Imean,soIthinkthattheoddthingaboutTrumpis,hewillattackherfromtherightandhellhangtheIraqWar
votearoundherneck.Herestheironyitseightyearslaterandacompletelydifferentpoliticalfigureisgoingtohang
Iraqaroundherneck,aRepublicanthistime,justasObamadideightyearsago.Andthen,onthethingsthatwentwrong
overthepasteightyears,hecanjustlabelthatanObama-Clintonpolicywhetheritwentwrongforlackofdoing
enoughorwhetheritwentwrongforactingrecklesslyandusingpoorjudgment.

Goldberg:Thisiswhyoneofthemostinterestingquestionstomeiswhereshecomesdownontheintervention
continuum.Iguessthebasicquestionaboutherandneitherofusknowthisis,doesshestillhavethePeopleare
dyingandwemustdosomethingimpulse?

Landler:Inthecategoryofformativeexperiences,IthinkthatRwandaandtheSrebrenicaepisodesareonesthatshe
remembersvividly,andwhileshemaynotsubscribetoeverytenetoftheconceptofResponsibilitytoProtect,thats
whereherinstinctsaregoingtobe.

Goldberg:Goingbacktowhatwewerefirsttalkingabout,asignaldifferencebetweenObamaandClintonisthatshe
remembersRwandaandSrebrenicaandtheFirstIraqWar,thesuccessfulGulfWar,andObamahasnofirsthand
experienceoftheseevents.

Landler:OneoftheargumentsthatpeoplehavemadeaboutObamaisthathesatouttheformativeexperiencesfor
Democratsinwhichinterventionsworkedwell,andasaresulthisframeofreferenceisVietnamandGeorgeW.Bushs
Iraq.Andinhercase,thoughshecameofageduringVietnam,shethensawRwanda,Srebrenica,andKosovo.That
couldmakeforahugedifferenceinthewayyouthinkaboutintervention.Look,oneoftheconclusionsPresidentObama
drewwasthatwecantaffordthesethings,itsexhausting,andtheAmericanpeoplewonttolerateitanymore.Andhe
hadalotofreasontobelievehewasright.Imean,hedefeatedavastlybetter-known,better-fundedDemocratic
opponentinpartonthosegrounds,bylashinghertoanunpopularwar.Andthenwentontowinthegeneralelection
againstawarhero.

Goldberg:Itsinteresting,inordinarytimes,acandidatewhoisseenasmorerobustlyanti-Russianshouldhaveafairly
easytimeconvincingtheAmericanpeopleofherposition.ButshemightberunningagainstaRepublicannomineewhois
moresympathetictothecurrentRussianleaderthantheDemocraticnominee.Soeverythingsupsidedown.
Landler:Ifyougobacksixoreightmonths,andlookatwhoHillaryspeoplethoughttheymightbemeetinginageneral
election,IthinktheyprobablyfigureditwouldbeMarcoRubio,whohadneoconideasbutnotverymuchexperience.
Andshewouldhavebeenabletowinthatdebatefairlyeasilyonqualificationsgroundsandexperiencegrounds,andthis
wouldnothavebeenadifficultdebateforhertowin.

Goldberg:TheywerepreparingtorunagainstaRepublicanfromtheleftonthissetofquestions,andnowtheyare
runningagainstaRepublicanwhoishimselfrunningagainstherfromtheleftonforeign-policyandnational-securityissues.

Landler:Fromtherightandtheleft,atthesametime.

Goldberg:Weirdtimes.

Landler:Yep.

SentfrommyiPad
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/15/201612:00:59PM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: JeffreyGoldbergandMarkLandleronthe'HillaryDoctrine'-TheAtlantic

IsThereaHillaryDoctrine?

Ithasseemedtome,foraslongasIvebeenwatchingHillaryClintonandBarackObamamakeforeignandnational-
securitypolicy,thatthedifferencesinoutlookandapproachbetweenthetwoofthemarefundamentalanddramatic.I
wouldcallthesedifferencesprofound,butIdontwanttobeaccusedofhyperbole.ItisnotjustthatClintonhasabias
towardactionintheinternationalarena,andthatObamaisfarmorehesitant,farmoreaware(tooaware,intheeyesof
critics)ofthedownsideofactionitisthattherearebasicdifferencesinthewaytheyunderstandAmericasroleinthe
world,andthequalitiesthatmakeAmericaexceptional.Theyalsodiffer,tomyeye,intheirunderstandingofAmerican
indispensability,andoftherelationshipbetweenpoweranddiplomacy.

TheonlypersonIknowwhospendsmoretimethinkingaboutthedispositionalandideologicaldifferencesbetween
ObamaandClintonthanIdoisMarkLandler,theNewYorkTimesreporterwhohascoveredtheObamaWhiteHouse
andtheClintonStateDepartmentandwhorecentlypublishedabook,AlterEgos(itsverylongandserioussubtitle:
HillaryClinton,BarackObama,andtheTwilightStruggleOverAmericanPower),thatexploresthesedifferences
throughtheprism,mainly,oftheMiddleEastcrisesthathaveconsumedtheObamaadministration.Landlerhaswrittenan
excellentbook,thedefinitiveexaminationtodateof,amongotherthings,apresidentwhohastriedtoextracttheU.S.
fromtheMiddleEast(withoutmuchsuccess,itgoesalmostwithoutsaying).AlterEgosisalsothemostauthoritative
attempttoexplainObamascomplicatedrelationshipwithhisfirst-termsecretaryofstate,athwartedcompetitor-turned-
stafferwho,ifshewinsthepresidencythisyear,willinheritaworldthatisinsomewaysasmessyastheoneObama
himselfinheritedfromGeorgeW.Bush.

LandlerandIdontseeeye-to-eyeonthedifferencesbetweenObamaandClintonhethinksthatshewillmakeforeign
policyinamorecautiousmannerthanIbelieveshewill.Itendtothink,mostofthetime,atleast,thatherLibya
experiencedidnotdiminishherardorforthearena.OnUkraineandSyria,forinstance,shethinksinmoreovertly
interventionisttermsthandoesObama.InaninterviewIconductedwithClintontwosummersago(onethatdrew
attentionforherimplicitcriticismofObamasunofficialforeign-policyslogan,Dontdostupidshit),sheconvincedme
thatshe,unlikeObama,hastheheartofaColdWarrior.InwhatItooktobeanothershotatObama,shesaid,You
know,whenyouredownonyourself,andwhenyouarehunkeringdownandpullingback,yourenotgoingtomakeany
betterdecisionsthanwhenyouwereaggressively,belligerentlyputtingyourselfforward.Oneissueisthatwedonteven
tellourownstoryverywellthesedays.

Ididnthavemuchdoubtabouttheidentityoftheweinherstatement.Irespondedtoherassertionbysayingsomething
Ibelievedeeply,whichisthatAmerica,inthelastcentury,savedcivilization.Ithought,ItoldClinton,that,defeating
fascismandcommunismisaprettybigdeal.

Sherespondedwithunvarnishedenthusiasm:ThatshowIfeel!Maybethisisold-fashioned.Okay,Ifeelthatthismight
beanold-fashionedidea,butImabouttofindout,inmorewaysthanone.

Obama,ontheotherhand,hasadifferentunderstandingofindispensability(youcanreadaboutObamasforeignpolicy
here,ifyoureinterested).Obamaisalsotoomeasured,tooambivalentandguarded,totoutAmericasachievementsin
anuncomplicatedway.(HewillseldomscoldanothercountryforitsbadbehaviorwithoutfirstassertingthattheU.S.is
farfromperfect,andprovidingexamplesofAmericasimperfections.)
LandlerandI,inarecentconversation,discussedhistheoryofthecase,whichisthatbiography,chronology,and
geographyaredestiny.Nowyoureintrigued,right?Soreadon.Thisisaneditedandcondensedtranscriptofour
conversation.

JeffreyGoldberg:Letsjustgetsomethingoutoftheway.TheBenRhodescontroversy.Putasidealltheextraneous
issuesIdontthinkthattheadministrationevertriedtohidethefact,beforetheelectionoftheostensiblymoderate
[PresidentHassan]Rouhani,thatitwantedtodoadealwithIran.AmIwrong?

MarkLandler:Thispuzzledme.TheWhiteHouseseffortstoopenachanneltoIranthroughtheOmanisbefore
Rouhaniselectionwerewell-knownandhavebeenreportedonbyanumberofjournalists.Inmybook,Idigintothe
earliestrootsoftheOmanchannelbecauseIthinkitrevealsthedivergentapproachesofBarackObama,HillaryClinton,
andespeciallyJohnKerrytowardIran.KerryandObamaweremoreintriguedbythepossibilityofsecrettalksClinton
wasmoreskeptical.IfBenwastryingtomanufactureanarrativethattheIrandiplomacybeganwithHassanRouhani,he
wasntverysuccessful,atleastwithme.

Goldberg:LetsgotoObamaandClinton.Ithinktheyarequitedifferentinthewaytheyapproachtheworld.Some
peoplearearguingtoyouthattheyrenotdifferentatall.Explainwhereyoucomeoutonthis.

Landler:Acommonargumentisthat,onthespectrumofAmericanforeign-policythought,fromtotaldovetototal
neoconservative,theyrebothliberalinternationalists.Theybothbelieveinrules-basedordertheyrebothabout
preservingthepost-WorldWarIIworldthatTrumanandAchesonandothersbuilt.Andtheysitclosetoeachotheronthe
spectrum.Butmyargumentisthatifyoulookattheirinstinctsandreflexesandthewaythattheyareapttorespondtoa
crisis,theyjustcomeatitverydifferently,andthisisinpartbecausetheycomefromverydifferentplacesbothintermsof
timeandgeography.Obamagrewupinthe70s,andhehadthisitinerantexistence,livinginIndonesiaforaperiod

Goldberg:LookingatAmericafromtheoutsidein

Landler:LookingatAmericafromoutsidein,assortofanexpatriatesviewofAmerica

Goldberg:AndHillaryisliterallyinthemiddleofAmericalookingout

Landler:Yes.Shesintheheartland,butalsointhe1950s,withaconservativeNavypettyofficerfather.Andsoshe
viewedAmericaasacountrythatwasaforceforgood,thatAmericaninterventionsgenerallycouldbeapositiverather
thananegativething.AndIthinkObamawasmuchmoreskepticalaboutthat.

Goldberg:Dispositionally,isHillaryclosertoJohnMcCainorBarackObama?

Landler:Inbasicdisposition,JohnMcCain.Thoughinpracticalterms,givenherpragmatism,Ithinkshewouldgovern
morecautiouslythanMcCainwouldgovern.

Goldberg:YouveheardwhatObamasaysaboutLibyawetriedtodoeverythingright,butitdidntwork,andthis
informedhisdecision-makingaboutSyria.ShewasahawkonLibya,butdoyouthinktheresachanceitsomehow
changedherreflexes?

Landler:IfyoulookatthewayshesapproachedSyria,startingoutforward-leaningonaidingtherebelsbackin2012
andcontinuingtofavorano-flyzonetoday,IwouldarguethatshestillbelievesthatLibyacouldendwell

Goldberg:Shethinksthateventoday?

Landler:Eventoday,thatitcouldendwell.MyviewonObamaisandyoumayormaynotagreewiththisthathe
lookedatLibyaanditconfirmedallthepreexistingproblemshehadwithinterventionism.
Goldberg:Heneverreallywantedtodoit.

Landler:Hedidntwanttodoit,andthenhedidit,andthenitturnedoutbadly,andthisconfirmedhisinstincts.

Goldberg:Maybeitturnedoutbadlyinpartbecauseheneverthoughtthatitcouldworkinthefirstplace.

Landler:Ithinkshewouldarguethatourimpulsewasright,anditwasmessierthanitshouldhavebeenforawhole
varietyofreasons,butthatitsstillaworkinprogressandimportantlyitshouldntpreventusfromdoingsimilarthings
indifferentplaces.AndifyoulookatSyria,IbelieveshethinkstheresmoreofaprospectfortheU.S.tomakea
differenceonthegroundthanhedoes.

Goldberg:Sofollowthisthrough.January,2017,letssayshebecomespresident.WhatcouldchangeinU.S.Syria
policy?

Landler:WellIthinkthatsheswanted,fromtheverystart,todosomethingtochangetheequationontheground.And
PresidentObama,Ithink,concludedyoucouldntdoenoughtochangetheequationwithoutamajormilitaryintervention.
Ithinkshewillatleastexplorethepossibilityofano-flyzoneandcreatinghumanitariancorridors.AndIthinkthatshe
wouldbewillingtosubstantiallyexpandthelevelofaidweregivingtorebelgroups[forinstancewith]MANPADS,and
thingslikethat.

Goldberg:Inyourunderstanding,shewasneverconvincedofObamasargumentthatiftheU.S.givesthemMANPADS
andthenoneisusedbysomeonetoshootdownanElAljet

Landler:Ithinksheworriedaboutthatbecauseshewaspartoftheoriginaldebateonwhatkindsofarmsshouldgoto
therebels.AndatthatpointeveryoneagreedthatMANPADSwereoutofthequestionbecauseofthedangerthatyou
talkedabout.ButIjustwondernow,facedwithasituationthatsjustcatastrophicallyworsethanitwasfouryearsago,
[if]shewouldbewillingtotakethatextrastep.IcantsayIknowthat.Imsurmisingthisbasedonthepublicstatements
shesmade.ShecallsitanintensificationandaccelerationofObamasstrategy,butthatcantakeonlysomanyforms.

Goldberg:HowhasheevolvedinhisunderstandingofAmericaninterventionism,andhowhassheevolved?Orhasher
thinkingnotevolved?Didtheyinfluenceeachothersthinkinginanyway?

Landler:Itsdifficulttoweighthesebecauseoneisthecommander-in-chiefandtheotherwasastaffmember.Butifyou
lookatthedebatesthatunfoldedovertime,sheprevailedinthecaseofLibyaanddidnotprevailinthecaseofSyria.So
hedrewsomeverystronglessonsfromLibyaandcouldnotbeswayedwhenitcametoSyria.Inhercase,Ithinkthat,
becauseshesolderandhasalongerframeofreference,alotofthelessonsshelearnedgobackmuchfurtherthanhis.I
think,forexample,whenshetalksaboutSyria,shecantalkaboutaKosovoprecedentinamuchmorecomfortableway
thanhedoes.SohemayhaveevolvedmorebutbecausehewasstartingwithIraq,andcameinwithrelativelylittle
experienceasaforeignpolicypractitioneroreventhinker,whereasshehadalreadyhad15or20yearsofeyewitness
experiencewithwhichtowork.WhenshethoughtaboutSyria,shedidntjustthinkaboutIraq,shethoughtalotaboutthe
Balkans.IdontknowhowmuchPresidentObamathoughtabouttheBalkanswhenhethoughtaboutanyofthe
interventionsduringhispresidency.

Goldberg:YouquoteJakeSullivan[Clintonsforeign-policyadviser]towardtheendofthebooksayingthatthe2008
Hillaryforeign-policymuscularitydidntworkforherthen,butthat[it]wouldworkbetternow,inthiscampaign.Doyou
thinkthatheisrightaboutthat?OrisObamaactuallyintunewiththeAmericanpeopleandwheretheyareonmattersof
foreignengagementmorethanHillary?IsuspectyouhighlightedthatJakequotebecauseyouprobablyhaveyourdoubts
aboutit.

Landler:Well,Ido.AndinfactIsaidintheepiloguethatitremainstobeseenwhetherhermoodmatchestheAmerican
publicorwhetherherinstinctsmatchtheAmericanpublic.JakewasspeakingintheaftermathoftheParisandSan
Bernardinoattacks.Atthatmoment,therewasnewpollingdataoutfromCNNandfromothersthatshowedforthefirst
timeinalongtimethatamajorityofAmericansfavoredsendinggroundtroopstoIraqandSyria.AndJakewassaying
thatinthatveryfraughtmomenttherewasarethinkingunderway.

Goldberg:Butthosemomentsareveryephemeral.

Landler:Yes,thesemomentsarefleeting.Thefurtherawayyougetfromanynational-securitycrisis,themoreAmericans
tendtofallbackintotheirpreexistingpatterns.SoImnotatallpersuaded.Andfurthermore,ifyoulistencarefullytoa
guylikeTrumpinthatforeign-policyspeechhegaverecently,Idontthinkhespersuaded.Imean,thatspeech,forallits
contradictionsandincoherence,madeaninterestingpoint,whichwas:Wereoutofthenation-buildingbusiness,andIm
notlookingtogetusintoanewwar.

Goldberg:Well,hetalkedasifObamahadbeeninthenation-buildingbusiness,whichisabsurd.

Landler:Whichisnonsense.ButwhatImsayingis:Obamaclearlyfeelsthathehashisfingeronthepulseofwhere
Americansareonthisissue.Andthatswhyhessereneanddoesntmindthumbinghisnoseattheforeign-policy
establishment,becausehethinkstheyretheonesthatareoutofstep,nothim.

Goldberg:Doyouagree?

Landler:Ithinkthathesbeenprettygoodatgaugingpublicopiniononthis.Theinterestinglargerquestionthat[the
dispositionallyinterventionisthistorian]BobKaganandIinterviewedBobKaganforthebookraisedisthatin2008
whenObamawaselected,thiscountrywaslivingonstrategicfumes,thatalloftheindispensiblenationrhetoricjustno
longerappealedtopeopleanymore.AndObamacorrectlytappedintothat.Americanswerejustexhaustedandnolonger
willing.

Goldberg:Thewhole,WereAmerica,wemustdothis,argumentnolonghasmuchsway.

Landler:Ithinkthatsright.ObamabelievesAmericadoeshavetoactwhenvitalnationalinterestsareinplay.Buthe
definesvitalnationalinterestsmuchmorenarrowlythanalotoftheforeign-policyestablishment.Oneofthethingsinmy
bookthatIthoughtwasatellingmomentwasadinnerhehadwithformerofficialsandforeign-policyexperts.Theywere
talkingaboutUkraine,andObamaasked,WillsomeonepleasetellmewhatAmericasvitalnationalinterestisin
Ukraine?And[BrookingsInstitutionPresident]StrobeTalbottwasjustsortofslack-jawed.Tosomeonelikehim,who
representstheforeign-policyestablishment,theideathattheU.S.wouldntimmediatelyrushtothedefenseofaformer
Sovietsatelliteisunthinkable.ButObamawasmerelypointingouttheobvious,whichwasthatourtradewithUkraineis
miniscule,andUkrainemeanssomuchmoretoPutinandRussiathanitdoestousthatRussiawoulddouble-downand
triple-downonanythingwedid.

Goldberg:Itswhathetoldmecoreintereststrumpperipheralinterests,andletsnotmakebelieveotherwise.

Landler:Andletsbewillingtowalkaway.

Goldberg:ButwouldHillaryClintoneversaythat?

Landler:Shewouldneversayitoutloud.Shemightsayitquietly.Butshewouldalso,Ithink,instinctively,wanttodo
moretopreventthatoutcome.Andthatswhyshestoldherfriendsshewouldsupportlethaldefensiveweaponstothe
Ukrainianarmy.Andthatis,bytheway,apositionthatmanyof[Obamas]advisersalsohad.

Goldberg:IagreewithyouthatherinstinctsaremoreMcCainishthanObamaish,butthequestionis,howconstrained
willshebeaspresidentbyrecentAmericanhistory,therecenthistoryofAmericaninterventions?
Landler:Well,itstherightquestiontoask.Peoplelovetopointoutsixmonthsintoanynewpresidencythisalways
happensthedegreeofcontinuitywiththeprecedingpresident.WithPresidentObama,itwasthefactthathelikedusing
dronesjustasBushlikedusingdrones.WithClinton,itmayturnoutthat,justasObamadidntlikemessyforeign
engagements,wellseesixmonthsintoherpresidencythatshesnotexactlymarchingintoothercountries.

Goldberg:AlthoughifshedidactuallyuptheanteinSyria,ormaybeinaplacelikeUkraine,itcouldbeinterpretedasa
decisivebreak.

Landler:Yes,thatcouldbetrue.And,again,itshardformetopredictbecauseshesasituationalist,andshellweigh
eachoneofthesethingsseparately.Idontthinkshellcomeinondayonewiththeideathatweneedtoripupthe
Obamaplaybook.ThisisnotlikeObamacominginafterBushandsayingthatthisisanewera,andwearenowmending
fencesandwindingdownwars.Shescertainlynotgoingtocomeinanddothat.Iwonder,though,whethershewillcome
inwithamoreenergeticpro-engagementvibethanPresidentObamahashad.

Goldberg:Engagementwith?

Landler:Allkindsofpeople.Imean,forexample,IthinkshelltrytohaveadifferentrelationshipwithIsrael.Wecanget
intothattoo.Itsinaseparatecategory,though.

Goldberg:Wellitsaseparatecategorybecauseitsanissuethatisadomesticpolitics[one]aswell.Myassumptionis
that,ifshebecomespresident,thatinMarchof2017shesgoingonwhatyoucouldcallaStabilizationTour,a10-capital
tour,fromSeoulandTokyo,toAbuDhabiandRiyadh,andJerusalem,and

Landler:AndmaybeastopinKiev,whileshesatit.

Goldberg:Goodpoint.AndWarsaw,andRiga,andParisandLondon,forthatmatter.Justtosayheresmyphone
number,werecool,dontworry,Imnotgoingtobecriticizingyouinpublic,Imnotgoingtocallyouafreeriderin
public.Butthatsanadjustment,acalibration,thatsnotabreakindoctrine.IsthereaHillaryClintonDoctrine,otherthan
beingasituationist?

Landler:Idontthinktheresacleardoctrine,justasthereisntonewithObama.Ithoughtitwasinterestingthat,inmy
research,theonetimeIfoundevidencethatherpeoplewerethinkingaboutaDoctrine,acapital-DDoctrine,wasin
Libya.AfterthecollapseofQaddafi,therewassometalkwithinhercircleabouthowshewasgoingtogetoutinfrontof
thisandgetcreditforit.AndJakeSullivansaidinanemailtoher,Werewritinganop-edandweshouldthink
ambitiouslyalongthelinesofaClintonDoctrine.AndIwonderedbythatwhetherhemeantaformofaggressive
engagement,interventionwhennecessary,butonethatinvolvedworkingwithawidevarietyofactors.Becauseifyou
remember,thewholehallmarkoftheLibyapolicywas,wehavetheArabLeagueonboard,wehavetheEuropeanson
board.Andshewastheonethatputallthattogether.Assecretaryofstate,shedidallthosetrips,andmadeallthose
phonecalls,andhadallthosemeetings.Sotheyweregivingher,internally,agreatdealofcreditforthecoalition.Libya
couldhavebeenabigpartofherdoctrine.

Goldberg:DoyouthinksheresentsObamaforlosinginterestinLibya,andbeinginsufficientlycommitted?Andvice
versa,maybe?DoyouthinkObamaresentsHillaryandtheotherpeople,fromTonyBlinkenandBenRhodesto
SamanthaPowerandGayleSmith,whopushedhimintosomethinghedidntwanttodo?

Landler:IdontthinktherewaseverthatmuchevidencethathewasveryengagedaftertheNATOoperationended.
Andfrankly,giventheownershipthatshehadoverthepolicy,itwasreallymoreuptohertostayengaged.AndIaskthe
questionofwhethershedisengaged.Aftertheinitialperiod,whenthingslookedliketheywereunfoldinginafairly
optimisticway,IalwaysthoughtitwascuriousthatshehadnoemailcontactwithAmbassadorStevens.[ChrisStevens
wastheAmericanambassadortoLibya,whowaskilledintheattackonthediplomaticoutpostinBenghaziinSeptember
2012.]

Goldberg:Thatwasveryinterestingmomentinyourbook.Ididntrealizethatshewasntincommunicationwithhim,
givenwherehewasposted.

Landler:Ithoughtthatthiswascurious.Somyquestionis,wassheherselfsomewhatdistracted,andhadshemovedon
tothenextchallenge?IfImPresidentObamaandImlookingatthis,Imthinking,Well,yougotmeintothis,soyou
shouldkeepbearingdownonit.

Goldberg:ShewasnttalkingtoStevens,theambassador,aboutLibya,butasyoupointoutinthebook,shewastalking
tosomeoneelsequiteabitaboutLibya,SidneyBlumenthal.IsSidneyBlumenthalgoingtohaveaprominentforeign-
policyroleinhernextadministration?

Landler:Idontknowifhewouldhaveaformalrole,butitscleartomethataformaltitledoesntmatter.Ifhedoesnt
haveaformalrole,hellcontinuetohavetheinformalrolethathehadthroughouthertermassecretary.Andthatrole,its
clearfromlookingattheemailsthathavebeenreleased,wasextraordinarilywide-ranging.Notjustthepoliticaladvicehe
wasgivingherandthebureaucraticadvicehewasgivingher,buttheothervoiceshewasbringingtothetable.

Goldberg:AndhewasactinglikeherintelligenceofficerforLibya.

Landler:Right,alotofthoseLibyaemailsfromBlumenthalwereactuallydraftedbythisshadowyCIAguy,Tyler
Drumheller,buthewasnttheonlyperson.Blumenthalwouldspendalotoftimebringingothervoicestoherattention,
andonotherissuesthathereallycaredabout.

Goldberg:Well,hewouldbefunnelingaconstantstreamofeitheranti-Israel,oranti-Netanyahu,commentary.Doyou
thinkthismeansanythingaboutthewayshewouldactuallymanagethisfile?Imean,peoplelikeus,wemakethis
assumptionthatshewould,toborrowaword,resetrelationswithNetanyahu,assuminghesstillprimeminister.And
whenIlastspoketoheraboutthisgeneralissue,shewassoundingveryhawkish,morehawkishobviouslythanObama.
Ontheotherhand,SidneyBlumenthal,Anne-MarieSlaughter,TomPickering,theyresendingherthisconstantstreamof
prettyhardcoreanti-Israelmaterial,sofaraswecanseefromthereleasedemails.Doyouthinkshedmoveleftonthis
issueifshebecamepresident?

Landler:IthinkinthiscasethatshedbemoreinclinedtotakeherleadfromBillClintonthanfromSidneyBlumenthal.

Goldberg:AndHaimSaban?

Landler:AndHaimSaban,obviously.IdosubscribetotheideathatshewouldseedrawingclosetoIsrael,closerto
Israel,asavaluablethingtodoforavarietyofreasons.Thisdoesntmean,bytheway,thattherewouldntbemore
tension,andevenantagonism,becauseshegaveaninterviewrecentlyinwhichshesaidthatanagreementbetweenthe
IsraelisandthePalestinianswouldstillbeoneofhertoppriorities.Andifshesseriousaboutpursuingthat,itshardto
pursuethatfull-scalewithoutantagonizingthecurrentIsraeligovernment.

Goldberg:MuchofyourbookisaboutMiddleEasterncatastrophes.ButyoudealextensivelywiththepivottoAsia.Do
youthinkthatHillaryClintonwillfigureoutawayinawaythatObamahasnttoputtheMiddleEastinabox,sothat
shecanfocusonotherthings?Doyouthinkshellsucceedincontrollingthis,wherehehasfailed?

Landler:ThelastfiveorsixpresidentshavefailedtoputtheMiddleEastinabox.Youknow,itsimpossibletopredict
thefuture,butIhaveasinkingfeelingthattheMiddleEastwilloccupythesamecentralpositioninthenextpresidencythat
itdidinthisone.Justlookatthesituationonthegroundtoday.TheSyrianconflictislikelytogetworsebeforeitgets
better.WiththeIrannucleardeal,willitplayadestabilizingrole,asthecriticsbelieve?Ordoesitactuallyrightthebalance
intheregionandproduceakindofstabilitythecoldpeacethatPresidentObamahopesfor?
Goldberg:Sothequestionis:IraninrecentweekshasdonevariousprovocativethingstheincidentwiththeNavy,
ballistic-missiletesting,therecalcitrantstatementsmadebythesupremeleader.Theresalsoanarrativedevelopingthat
thisadministrationwilldoanythingitcantopreservetheletterofthedeal,ifnotthespiritofthedeal.Doyouthinkthat
HillarywillhaveanewsetofpoliciesinplacethatwillmeanlesstoleranceforIranianshenanigans?

Landler:Ithinkthatshesgoingtopositionherselfastheenforcerofthisdeal,andifyougobackandlookattherole
shesplayedinIraniandiplomacythroughout,shesalmostalwaysplayedthebadcop.Shestheonewhoputtogetherthe
sanctionscoalition.

Goldberg:Doyoucreditherwithdoingmoreworkonthatthananyoneelse?

Landler:Yes,Ithinkso.[NationalSecurityAdvisor]SusanRicedidalotattheU.N.PresidentObamadidalotwiththe
Russians.ButHillarywas,withtheChineseinparticular,criticalinputtingthattogether.Ifyougobacktotheearliestdays
oftheIrannegotiation,whenitwasstillasecretchannelinOman,Hillarywasfarmoredubious,andmuchmorereluctant
togetpulledintoit.Anditwas,infact,JohnKerryandObamawhowerereallyleaningintoit.AndsoIdothinkshe
wouldcomeinandprobablywanttoputsomenewprogramsinplace,maybetherewouldbeawillingnesstoactmore
swiftlyonsanctionsagainstIranincaseofotherviolations,ballisticmissiles,forinstance,orinassemblingcoalitionof
countriestotrytostymieIran.AndIthinkthatunlikePresidentObama,who,Ibelieve,whateverhesaidpublicly,
privatelyhopedthatthedealwouldbeatransformationalevent,Idontthinkshehasanyillusionsaboutthat.Ithinkshe
assumesthatwecontinuetohavethisfundamentallyantagonisticrelationshipwithIran.

Goldberg:Acounterfactual:IfClintonhadstayedonforasecondtermassecretaryofstate,wouldwehaveanIrandeal
now?

Landler:Itsinteresting.Ididntposethatcounterfactualquestion,Iaskthequestionofwhether,ifHillaryClinton,had
beenelectedin2008insteadofObama,wouldtherehavebeenadeal?AndIthinkthatitspossibletoarguethatthere
wouldnthavebeen.

OneoftheinterestingthingsthatcameoutofmyreportingisthatshewouldhavefavoredhittingtheIranianswithnew
sanctionsafterHassanRouhaniwaselectedpresident.ThiswastheMenendez-Kirklegislation,which,ifyourecall,
PresidentObamamaneuvereddesperatelytopreventtheSenatefrompassing,becausehisviewwasthatitwouldblow
upthenegotiations.IknowthatHillarybecauseshestoldpeoplethiswouldhavefavoredsqueezingthem.Inthe
wordsofoneofheraides,Squeezethemagainandseewhathappens.Remember,thepresidentwastheonepushing
thedeal,andHillaryClintonwasnothingifnotaloyalimplementerofherbossspolicy.Soiftheorderonthetablewasto
getthisdealdone,Ithinkitspossibleshewouldhavegottenitdoneassecretaryofstate.Thequestioniswhethershe
wouldhavepursueditaspresident,andthereIhavemydoubts.

Goldberg:Ifshebecomespresident,whodoyouthinkwouldbehermostimportantforeign-policyadvisers,andsources
ofideas?

Landler:Yes,well,BillClintonisnumberone.Andthenshellhaveverytrustedaides,JakeSullivanatthetopofthatlist.
Andthenshehasthisextremelywide,heterodoxcircleofcontactsthatshellbepullinginformationfrom.Andthatll
includeBobKagan,itllincludeSidBlumenthal,itllincludeStrobeTalbott,itllinclude[formerU.S.ambassadorto
Israel]MartinIndyk.AndIthinkyouseesomesurprisingnamesandfaces.AnotherdifferencewithObamaisthatshesa
realspongeforinformationlikeherhusband.Forheritsanacquiredskill,forherhusbanditcamenaturally.Ithink
PresidentObamawasmorelikelytothinkthroughissueshimself,andreadalot,asopposedtocastinganextremelywide
net.Ithinkinhercase,shesmoreapttotalktoRepublicans.IthinkshellconsultJohnMcCain.Iwritealotabout,in
thisbook,aboutGeneralJackKeane,whosaprettyhardlineretiredfour-stargeneral.
Goldberg:Shelikesthenail-eatinggenerals,likeJimMattis.Theseguysarealsointernationalists,andstrongalliance
guys.IssheoutofstepwiththemoodoftheAmericanpeople,who,Imtold,atleast,dontwanttobeinvolvedwith
verymuchinternationally?

Landler:ImnotsureIdisagreewithyou.ImeanIdontthinkitstheperfectmomentforsomeonewhoisashawkishas
Ibelievesheis.ButyoualsohavetoentertainthedarkpossibilitythattherecouldbeaterroristattackonAmericansoil,
andthen,overnight,thesituationisdramaticallytransformed.

Goldberg:Well,ifthathappens,Trumphasaverygoodchanceofbecomingpresident,giventhenationalmood.Butlets
talkaboutTrump.Inhisrecentforeign-policyspeech,heattackedObamafromtherightandHillaryfromtheleft.What
wouldyouimaginehislinegoingforwardisgoingtobeonHillarythatshesawarmonger,orthatshesweakon
terrorism,orbothatthesametime?

Landler:Itwillprobablybesomecombination.

Goldberg:Hesnotboundbytherulesofconsistency,obviously.

Landler:WhatinterestedmeaboutthatspeechisthattherewerealsoechoesofObamainit.Imean,whenhetalks
aboutresettingrelationshipswithRussiaokay,well,wetriedthatoncebefore.Andthefree-riderthingisverymuch
there,aswasthecontemptfortheforeign-policyestablishment.WheredidIhearthatbefore?InaJeffGoldberg
interview.Imean,soIthinkthattheoddthingaboutTrumpis,hewillattackherfromtherightandhellhangtheIraqWar
votearoundherneck.Herestheironyitseightyearslaterandacompletelydifferentpoliticalfigureisgoingtohang
Iraqaroundherneck,aRepublicanthistime,justasObamadideightyearsago.Andthen,onthethingsthatwentwrong
overthepasteightyears,hecanjustlabelthatanObama-Clintonpolicywhetheritwentwrongforlackofdoing
enoughorwhetheritwentwrongforactingrecklesslyandusingpoorjudgment.

Goldberg:Thisiswhyoneofthemostinterestingquestionstomeiswhereshecomesdownontheintervention
continuum.Iguessthebasicquestionaboutherandneitherofusknowthisis,doesshestillhavethePeopleare
dyingandwemustdosomethingimpulse?

Landler:Inthecategoryofformativeexperiences,IthinkthatRwandaandtheSrebrenicaepisodesareonesthatshe
remembersvividly,andwhileshemaynotsubscribetoeverytenetoftheconceptofResponsibilitytoProtect,thats
whereherinstinctsaregoingtobe.

Goldberg:Goingbacktowhatwewerefirsttalkingabout,asignaldifferencebetweenObamaandClintonisthatshe
remembersRwandaandSrebrenicaandtheFirstIraqWar,thesuccessfulGulfWar,andObamahasnofirsthand
experienceoftheseevents.

Landler:OneoftheargumentsthatpeoplehavemadeaboutObamaisthathesatouttheformativeexperiencesfor
Democratsinwhichinterventionsworkedwell,andasaresulthisframeofreferenceisVietnamandGeorgeW.Bushs
Iraq.Andinhercase,thoughshecameofageduringVietnam,shethensawRwanda,Srebrenica,andKosovo.That
couldmakeforahugedifferenceinthewayyouthinkaboutintervention.Look,oneoftheconclusionsPresidentObama
drewwasthatwecantaffordthesethings,itsexhausting,andtheAmericanpeoplewonttolerateitanymore.Andhe
hadalotofreasontobelievehewasright.Imean,hedefeatedavastlybetter-known,better-fundedDemocratic
opponentinpartonthosegrounds,bylashinghertoanunpopularwar.Andthenwentontowinthegeneralelection
againstawarhero.

Goldberg:Itsinteresting,inordinarytimes,acandidatewhoisseenasmorerobustlyanti-Russianshouldhaveafairly
easytimeconvincingtheAmericanpeopleofherposition.ButshemightberunningagainstaRepublicannomineewhois
moresympathetictothecurrentRussianleaderthantheDemocraticnominee.Soeverythingsupsidedown.
Landler:Ifyougobacksixoreightmonths,andlookatwhoHillaryspeoplethoughttheymightbemeetinginageneral
election,IthinktheyprobablyfigureditwouldbeMarcoRubio,whohadneoconideasbutnotverymuchexperience.
Andshewouldhavebeenabletowinthatdebatefairlyeasilyonqualificationsgroundsandexperiencegrounds,andthis
wouldnothavebeenadifficultdebateforhertowin.

Goldberg:TheywerepreparingtorunagainstaRepublicanfromtheleftonthissetofquestions,andnowtheyare
runningagainstaRepublicanwhoishimselfrunningagainstherfromtheleftonforeign-policyandnational-securityissues.

Landler:Fromtherightandtheleft,atthesametime.

Goldberg:Weirdtimes.

Landler:Yep.

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/13/201612:34:47PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:Update:"PutinWARNSNATOmissileshieldisthreattopeaceinEurope,"bloomberg.com,5/13

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,May13,201612:35PM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:Update:"PutinWARNSNATOmissileshieldisthreattopeaceinEurope,"bloomberg.com,5/13

And:TheENDofRBC:ahybridwaragainstthemediaandparanoia.Fromtheeditorialboard[of
NovayaGazeta],http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73075.html?print=1

And:YuliaLATYNINA,ForthefirsttimethereplacementofURINEhasbeenthegoalofacounter
intelligencespecialoperation[ontheSochiOlympicsdopingscandal],
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73071.html?print=1

And:BBCRussianServiceadetailedportraitofTRUMPstopRussiaadvisorCarterPAGE:Trumps
Russiaadvisor:aconspiracytheorist,
http://www.bbc.com/russian/international/2016/05/160512_trump_advisor_page

InPageswords,in2014powerinKievwasseizedbyproAmericanradicalswhowerehostileto
theinterestsofRussia
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/14/201604:51:44AM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>
Subject: SMARTPIECE--FixingNATODeterrenceintheEast,orHowILearnedtoStopWorryingandLoveNATOsCrushingDefeatbyRussia

http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/fixing-nato-deterrence-in-the-east-or-how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-
natos-crushing-defeat-by-russia/

FixingNATODeterrenceintheEast,orHowI
LearnedtoStopWorryingandLoveNATOs
CrushingDefeatbyRussia
Strangelove-Warroom

ArevanchistRussiaandvulnerableBalticstatesareonthemindsofAmericasdefenseestablishment.AfterSecretaryof
DefenseAshCarterstriptoEuropetooverseethechangeofcommandatEuropeanCommand(EUCOM),itsbecome
clearaccordingtoseniordefenseofficialsthattheplanistotransitiontheroleofthecommandfromreassuranceto
deterrence.U.S.militarypresenceisreturninginforcetoEuropeinsearchofthatoldfamiliarconventionaldeterrencein
thefaceofRussianaggression.Fromthe$3.4billionEuropeanReassuranceInitiative,ofwhich$1billionwouldgotowards
addinganArmoredBrigadeCombatTeaminEurope(foratotalofthreeU.S.brigades)toNATOsrecentlyannouncedplan
todeploy4,000additionaltroopstoPolandandtheBalticstates,thereisaclearpolicyshifttowardterritorialdefensein
Europe.

YetEUCOMsnewcommanderGeneralCurtisScaparrottifacesadauntingtask,becausedeterrenceisadifficultmistress
tocourt.Howdoyouknowwhenyouhaveit?Lostit?Gainingorlosingit?WhenitcomestoprotectingNATOseastern
flank,itcouldbeacaseofdefendingtheindefensible.HavewethoughtaboutthedifferentconflictscenariosfortheBaltics
ormerelythosescenariosthatproponentsofmoreforcesintheBalticswouldprefertodeter?Giventhepolicymomentum,
infusionoffunding,andadditionalmanpowerforEUCOM,itisalsotimetoasksomeinconvenientquestionsaboutwhether
wetrulyunderstandwhataconflictwithRussiawouldlooklikeintheBalticsandifconventionaldeterrencebydenialis
possibleonNATOseasternflank.

ThereisahealthydebateintheanalyticalandpolicycommunitiesontheU.S.forcestructurerequiredinEurope,whereto
deployU.S.troops,andthenatureofRussiaschallengetoNATO.ProponentsofmoreforcesinEuropehaveofferedtheir
answer,andallofthemareaftervaryingdegreesofmoreU.S.militarypresenceintheBaltics.Theirideasrangefrom
bolsteringtripwireforcesintomoreofarazorfencetolarge-scaledeploymentsinEurope.TheauthorsofRANDs
wargameontheBaltics,DavidShlapakandMichaelJohnson,havepressedtheircaseinanumberofpublications,including
hereatWarontheRocks,inanarticlethatspreadaroundthedefenseestablishmentlikewildfire(Outnumbered,
Outranged,andOutgunnned:HowRussiaDefeatsNATO).ElbridgeColbyandJonathanSolomonmadesimilarpoints,also
atWarontheRocks(ForPeacewithRussia,PrepareforWarinEurope).

Ifyouvebeenfollowingthisdebate,youprobablylearnedthatatsomepointNATOlostitsabilitytodeterRussia,NATO
forcesarehopelesslyoutmatchedandperilouslyexposedtoaRussianinvasionifVladimirPutinwakesupgrumpyone
morning.NATOis,inthebestcasescenario,unabletopreventaRussianfaitaccompliseizureoftheBalticstatesina
short-noticeconflict.Attheveryleast,theUnitedStatescantaffordtherisk,andhenceitmustdowhatittakesto
reinforcethisetherealsubstanceknownasconventionaldeterrence.

Yetmuchofthisdiscussion,likemostconversationsregardingRussia,strikesmeasconventionalwisdom.Frankly,its
mucheasiertoadjustthenarrativeontheRussianthreatforapolicyprescriptionthanitistodeterminetherightU.S.force
posturetoaddresstheRussianthreat.WhendidNATOloseitsdeterrence,andifitsgone,whyhavetheRussiansnot
invadedalltheseyears?Thesemysteriessuggesttherearestilllargeblindspotsinthereinforcedeterrencedebate.The
reasonisthattheseargumentsrestonacontrivedvisionofRussiaandoneversionofahigh-endfightintheBaltics.

RANDsoft-trumpetedreportonaseriesofwargamesisthebestexampleofthisphenomenon.Itsauthors,Shlapakand
Johnson,madefairlysweepingargumentsonthebasisoftheirresults,bothforlarge-scaleU.S.forcedeploymentsinthe
BalticstatesandforretoolingtheU.S.ArmytofightRussia.TheirintentionwastosparkadiscussionabouthowNATO
wouldfareinafightagainstRussiaandwhatthatfightwouldlooklike.Soletshavethatdiscussion,becauseIthinkthey
gotitwrong.
TheDevilisintheDetailsoftheWargame

RANDsseriesofwargamesdemonstratedhoweasilyatask-organizedRussianarmycouldbeatNATOintheBalticsina
short-noticecontingency,includingNATOsVeryHighReadinessJointTaskForceaninspirationalnamethatbeliesits
capability.ThisoutcomewasnotexactlyarevelationinanalyticalcirclesgiventhatRussiahaslongbeenknowntobealand
powerfieldingasizeablearmy,incidentallystillbasedinsideitsownborders.Russiascombinedarmedforcesarecloseto
900,000strongtoday.Itsarmy,airborne,andnavalinfantryunitstogetherlikelynumber300,000,andevenitsnewly
formedNationalGuardwillboastaround400,000.AsoneofthepremierEurasianlandpowers,Russiasarmedforces
outnumberallneighborsasidefromChina.Thisshouldnotbetreatedasnews.

InRANDswargames,RussiarolledthroughtheBalticsevenwithNATOairpowertocontendwith,butsowhat?The
structureofsuchscenarioscanleadtoradicallydifferentconclusionsaboutwhattheU.S.shoulddoinresponse.RANDs
wargameisfraughtwithproblems,startingwithitsassumptionsanditsreadingofRussianstrategyandmilitary.Theresults
havebeenhypeduplikesomuchhotairfillingaballoon.

Theproblemswiththewargamestartwithitsobjective.ShlapakandJohnsonwrite,

ThestrategicgoaloftheinvasionwastodemonstrateNATOsinabilitytoprotectitsmostvulnerable
membersanddividethealliance,reducingthethreatitpresentsfromMoscowspointofview.

ItmakeslittlesensethatRussiawouldinvadeandconquertheBalticstatestodemonstrateNATOsweakness.Thereisno
logicalconnectionbetweenthestrategicobjectiveandtheoperationsimulated.Moscowcanhandilydemonstratethe
alliancesweaknesswithoutinvasionandoccupation,asIdiscussinmoredetailbelow.Invadingandconqueringentire
countriesisnotcommonlydoneforpurposesofdemonstration,justasRussiadidnotannexCrimeafordemonstrative
effect.ThisisproblemonebothforRANDswargameandthewiderdebatenoonecanintelligentlyarticulatethe
benefitsofsuchpotentialactionsfortheRussians.

Paradoxically,accordingtoRANDswargame,RussiaplannedtoseizetheBaltics,butapparentlyonlyhad10daysnotice
toorganizeitsowninvasion.Asaconsequence,theRussianarmywasonlyabletobringatotalof27battalions(22from
theWesternMilitaryDistrict)tothisepicbattlewithNATO,andthattotalincludesunitsalreadystationedinKaliningrad.
Thistask-organizedgroupingmayhavebeensufficientforRussiatowininRANDswargame,butitsanillogicalformation
foracountrythatfocusesondrillsinlarge-scaleconventionalwarfare,gatheringunitsfromvariousmilitarydistricts.
Althoughofficialfiguresarealwaysinflated,inthelaststrategicexercise,Tsentr-2015,asmanyas95,000troopsmayhave
beeninvolved.Indeed,theforcetheyenvisionedRussiafieldingisjusttherightsizetoconquertheBalticstatesonpaper,
yetsmallenoughtopotentiallybedeterredbyseveralU.S.brigadecombatteams.ShlapaksandJohnsonsRussian
invasiondoesnotseemgroundedinhowtheRussianmilitarypreparestofightandthescaleofthebattlethatittrainsfor.

IfRussiawasplanningafull-scaleinvasionoftheBalticstates,itwouldalsohavetoplantotakeonallofNATOanddefend
againstacounter-attack.Greatpowerstypicallydontattacksuperpowerswithcobbled-togetherforcesandhopeforthe
best.Moscowwouldlikelybringtobearaforceseveraltimeslargerthanthatassumedinthewargameandmaintainthe
logisticstodeployadditionalunitsfromothermilitarydistricts.OpinionswillvaryamongRussianmilitaryexpertsaboutthe
sizeofforceRussiacouldmusterinahurry,butoneestimateIsuspectyouwillnothearis27battalionsthrowntogether
forwhatcouldbeWorldWarIII.Thinkmuchbiggerandnotwithinanarbitrary10-daytimelimit.Itisunclearwherethe
10-dayinvasionrulecamefrom.ItwasalsoreferencedinarecentAtlanticCouncilreport.HasNATOcoordinatedthis
preferredtimetablewiththeRussians?

BetweenFebruaryandApril2014,theRussianGeneralStaffdemonstrateditscompetenceindeployingaforceofroughly
40,000to50,000onUkrainesbordersanddispersingitoverthecourseofseveralweeks.Therearelessonstobelearned
fromtheRussianwarinUkraine,butweshouldtakegreatcareinextrapolatingthemtoahypotheticalhigh-endfightinthe
BalticsbetweenRussiaandNATO.IncontrasttoUkraine,itisunlikelythatRussiawouldinvadeNATOasaresponsetoan
unexpectedcontingencywithlittlemorethananadhocgroupingofbattaliontacticalgroups.Itisequallyunlikelythatanad
hocgroupingofRussianbattalionsthearmyRANDbuiltwouldeasilyinvadeandoccupytheBaltics,whichhave
beenworkingquitehardonconscriptionandmobilizationtomakethemselvesdifficulttodigestinsuchascenario.

Sometimeswargamesaccuratelyreflecthowtwoopponentswouldtrulyfight.Othertimesitsmoreatabletopmapwith
blueandredunitcounters.RANDswargameseemstohavebeenthelatter.ShlapakandJohnsonwrite,thenoveltyofthe
scenariomeantthattherewaslittletogoonintermsofstrategicoroperationalconceptsforeitherside.ARussiantask
forceinvadingNATOwithnooperationalorstrategicconceptsseemsdifficulttoimagine,andraisesseriousquestions
aboutwhatthewargamesimulated.

WereNotinGermanyAnymore

ThemoreonereadstheRANDwargamereportalongsidetheauthorsrelatedcommentary,thecleareritbecomesthattheir
visionwasnotamodern-dayfightbetweenRussiaandNATO.Rather,itisarecreationofAirLandBattlefromtheCold
War.Theybasicallyadmitasmuch:
AsuccessfuldefenseoftheBalticswillcallforadegreeofair-groundsynergywhoseintimacyand
sophisticationrecallstheU.S.ArmyU.S.AirForceAirLandBattledoctrineofthe1980s.

Ofcourse,itistemptingforAmericanColdWarriorstosimplycrossouttheSovietUnion,writeinRussia,andthen
looktosetupthesameAirLandBattlethatplayedoutonmanyahex-squaretabletopmapinthe1980s.Thedoctrinal
premiseofAirLandBattlewasthatNATOcouldwinawaragainsttheWarsawPactbyfocusingonstrongintegration
betweentheArmyandAirForce,anon-linearbattlefield,anddeepairstrikes.IfwereheadingintoColdWar2.0,whynot
dustoffAirLandBattle,write2.0nexttoitaswell,andgivethatago?Right?Theresevenagaptofightover!Insteadof
GermanysdreadedFuldaGap,wecanbattleforPolandsSuwalkiGap.Whohasntbeeninadiscussionwheresome
experthasnotmistakenlyreferredtoRussiaastheSovietUnion?Oldhabitsdiehard,alongwithoutmodedthinking.

ImnotconvincedAirLandBattlelessonsapplyhere.Theonlysimilaritiesbetweenthesegeographiesisthattheybothhave
gapsinthem.IdontwishtotakeawayfromthevictoriesofAirLandBattlewarriorsinthe1980s,retiringfromthetable
topbattlefieldconfidentintheirabilitytoachievedeterrencebydenialagainsttheSovietUnion.Thankfully,thatfightnever
tookplace.ThedoctrinemayindeedhavecontributedtopeaceinEurope,butitisworthnotingthatNATOsuccessfully
deterredtheSovietUnioninEuropefordecadespriortotheadventofAirLandBattle.

MakeAirLandBattleGreatAgain

IntheirWarontheRocksarticle,DavidShlapakandMichaelJohnsonwritethatgeographyisaharshmistressinthis
scenario.Itisindeed,butnotthelandterraintheywerereferringto.Thereisabiggerproblem,becausetheBalticstates
livealongtheBalticSea,whichisntpartofRANDswargame.ExcludingtheBalticSeamakessenseonlyfroma1980s
AirLandBattleperspective.TheU.S.NavycanresteasythankstoAirLandBattle,itsgoingtobesittingthisoneout.
Americansoftenstrugglewiththegeographyofplacesweveyettofightawarover.BesidesthefactthatalltheNATO
membersandpartnersinthishypotheticalfightarecoastalcountries,severalotherkeygeographicaldifferencesareworth
noting.

Forexample,RussianforcesarealreadybehindNATOinKaliningrad,andBelarusisRussiasally,orattheveryleastcould
serveasaspringboardforRussianforces.ThisiswhypickingupaColdWarfight,movingitoverafewhundred
kilometers,andputtingitdownintheBalticsisnottherightwaytothinkabouttheBaltichigh-endfight.Ratherthanthe
topography,theproblemisthattheworldhaschanged,andweneedtoadjusttothegeopoliticallandscapeof2016.

Oneofthechallengeswithwargamingandthehex-squareapproach(atacticalgriddividingthemapterrainintohexagonal
squares)isthatitcanlendyoutostructureadvicenotinserviceofareal-worldproblem,butintheserviceoffixingthe
wargame.Lookingattheboard,nodoubtRussiashexsquaresarefilledwithpowerfulredunitpiecesandNATOsare
disappointinglyempty.ThelogicalconclusionistofillNATOssidewithbluepiecesproblemsolved.HenceRAND
recommendsthedeploymentofsevenbrigades,supportedbyairpower,land-basedfires,andotherenablesontheground,
i.e.averitableFortressAmericatobeplantedintheBalticsandPoland.ThatwillsolvetheproblemofRANDswargame,
butitmaydolittletosolveNATOsdeterrenceproblemsvis-a-visRussiaandcouldinsteadcreateadangeroussecurity
dilemma,toboot.

ImnottheleastbitopposedtomoreU.S.forcesintheBaltics,inprinciple.Thatbeingsaid,Americandecision-makers
mustventureintothiswitheyeswideopen.AsGeorgesClemenceauremarked,waristooimportanttobelefttothe
generals,andstrategicdecisionsshouldbetooimportanttobelefttothewargamerswhoseetheworldthroughhex-
squares.NATOsproblemisnotthescenarioRANDpresented,andtheirprescriptionswontfixiteither.

TheBattleofDunkirk2.0

IfwearetohavethissurrealDr.Strangelovediscussion,thenletsplayoutahigh-endfightbetweenRussiaandNATO.
Imagineitisthefuture:NATOhasdoneastoldandforward-stationedseveralAmericanbrigadesintheBaltics.Russiaalso
repositionsforcesintheWesternMilitaryDistrictinresponse,andrealizespreviouslyannouncedplansfornewunit
formations.Oneday,RussiadecidestorollthediceonthefateofhumanityandchallengeNATOthroughaconventional
invasion.ExcepttheRussianGeneralStafflooksatthemapandrealizesthattheresnoneedtoseizeBalticcitiessincethey
cansimplywalkthroughBelarusandlinkupwithKaliningrad,therebyseveringNATOsArmyofDeterrenceintheBaltics
fromtherestofitsforcesinPoland.RussiasBalticFleetisnotmuchofanavalforce,butitcanblockadeBalticportsfora
while,minethem,andeffectseadenial.Ofcourse,theotherproblemisthatallofU.S.forceswillbewithinthearcsof
Russiaslong-rangeairdefense,operatingatthemercyofRussiancruisemissiles,artillery,andaninitialairattack.

OnethingAirLandBattledidnthavetodealwithisS-400airdefensesystemswith250kilometerranges,350kilometer-
rangeIskander-Mtacticalmissiles,or300kilometer-rangeBastion-Pcoastalmissiledefenses.Ofcourse,everythingcanbe
overcomeintime,exceptthattheresnoobviouswaytoreinforceU.S.unitsintheBalticsortokeeptheirsuppliesandfuel
frombeingdestroyedintheopeninghoursofthefight.ThisentirescenariostartswithinRussiankillzonesandelectronic
warfarezones.RussianunitscancomefromBelarus,Kaliningrad,Russiaitself,orbyseainpreparationforanassault.The
abilityofMoscowtocompelMinskscooperationplaysakeyrole,becausetherailroadsrunrightthroughBelarusandto
theSuwalkiGaporbyVilnius.AuthorandretiredArmyColonelDouglasMacGregorsbrieftotheSenateArmedServices
CommitteewasnolessalarmistthanRANDs,butherecognizedthemoreimportantproblemofRussianforcesattacking
fromBelarustoKaliningrad.

WhywouldRussiamakeadashforBalticcapitals,asinRANDswargame,whenthebattleisdecidedbywhetherornot
NATOcansuccessfullyreinforcefromPoland?InsteadoffightingNATOforcesintheBaltics,thebestwayforwardisto
turnthatdeterrentintoamilitaryhostage.Whatif,inthetimeittakesNATOtogenerateforcessufficienttobreakthrougha
RussiandefensivepositionacrossKaliningrad,thealliancecollapsespolitically,especiallygiventheconcernoverlosingits
unitsbehindenemylinesintheBaltics?

Allanalogiesareimperfect,butitstrikesmethatadvocatesforarobustU.S.militarypresencewanttoreplaytheBattleof
Dunkirkin1940,whereU.S.forcesgettofilltheunenviableshoesoftheBritishExpeditionaryForcesurroundedbythe
GermanArmy.Whetheryouhaveonebrigadeorthreebrigades,yourestillgoingtolosethatfight.U.S.plannerswouldnot
bethefirsttothinkyoucouldholdapocketagainstalandpowerandreinforceitacrossagap.TheideathatalineofU.S.
forcesalongtheRussianbordercanachievedeterrencebydenialinmoderntimesboastsalltheingenuityoftheMaginot
Line.Moreforcesinplacecantalwayscompensateforapoorstrategyandunworkablegeography.

AMillionWaystoDieintheEast

NATOsbiggestchallengeisnotthebalanceofforces,butthefactthatitscredibilityisattachedtoeverysquaremeterof
Balticterrain.AmuchmorelikelyscenarioisoneinwhichRussiadeploysalargelandforceonthebordersaspartofasnap
exercise,asitdidoppositeUkraineinearly2014,andthenseizessomeunknownpatchofdirt.WouldNATOattackthis
offendingRussianforceoverafewsquaremeters?ItsonethingtocontemplatetradingWashingtonforVilniuswhat
aboutsomefarmhouseontheRussian-Estonianborder?LetstakeanotheroptionwhereinRussiasimplypicksupthe
borderandmovesitfurtherintotheBalticstates.Thatsnofantasy.MoscowhasbeendoingthistoGeorgiainSouth
Ossetia.Ontheonehand,NATOcannotlettheRussiansbreakitscredibilitythroughsalami-slicingtactics,butontheother
hand,theBalticstatesthemselvesmightnotbesoeagertopickafighttheycantwinoverafewfeetofrealestate.Whois
willingtoattackaRussianarmyonRussiasborder?

PlentyhasbeenwrittenonwhatwouldhappenifRussianspecialforcestriedtoseizeBaltictowns,leveragingthepresumed
camaraderieofthelocalethnicRussianpopulation.ThisCrimea-likescenarioisimprobable,especiallybecauseRussiahad
forcesinplaceinCrimeafromtheverybeginning,butitoffersanimportantlessonthatshoulddriveNATOsthinkingabout
theBaltichigh-endfight.ThechallengeisnotNATOsdeterrenceagainstahypotheticalconventionalwar,whichisnotonly
unlikelybutwhollyunnecessaryforRussiatochallengeNATO.Theproblemliesincompellence,becausethereare
numerousscenariosinwhichRussiacansetupachallengetoNATOscredibilityasanallianceandcompeltheWestagainst
aresponse,therebyleadingtofailure.

ThereasonRussiaannexedCrimeawithouthavingtoovercomeresistanceisinlargepartduetoconventionalcompellence.
RussiasmilitarydeploymentandadirectlyissuedthreatcompelledUkrainesleaderstoavoidevenattemptingresistance.
TherewasnocombatinCrimea.ThosearguingforforwarddeploymentskeepenvisioningascenariowhereRussiantroops
orspecialforcescrosstheborderandshootfirst.Thatisonesetofproblemsthatmilitarilycannotbeeasilysolvedas
describedabove,butthemoreperilouscasesarethoseinwhichNATOmustshootfirstwhenfacedwithalargeRussian
conventionaldeployment.EUCOMstruechallengeisnotdeterrenceitshowtohandlecompellencebyanadvanced
conventionaladversarycapableofcombiningspecialforcesandlarge-scalemilitaryoperations.

AsIvewrittenelsewhereonWarontheRocksontheestablishmentsobsessionwithhybridwarfare,theproblemisalso
notahybridone.Russiahasre-forgeditsmilitaryasausefulinstrumentofnationalpowerandrediscoveredhowtocompel
othersusingmilitarypower.Evenifterritorialdefensewasworkableadubiousprospectatbestdeterrenceonly
worksiftheothersideplanstoattackyou.AsmarterapproachforMoscow,andoneconceptuallydemonstratedinCrimea,
istocreateacrisisinwhichNATOscredibilityistestedonthechoiceofwhetherornottoattackRussiafirst.

WhatstheRightForcePostureforNuclearOblivion?

TheotherproblemwiththefixationonconventionaldeterrenceintheBalticfightisthatjustasintheoldstandoffbetween
NATOandtheWarsawPact,thisbattleisfraughtwithopportunitiesfornuclearescalation.MostRussianexpertsIknowin
themilitaryanalysiscommunity,includingthoseinRussia,dontseemuchofachanceforconventionalbattlewithNATO
tostayconventional.RANDdidntwargamethatout,sincetheirswasanAirLandBattleexercise,butitmakesthedebate
overhowmanybrigadestostickintotheBalticssomewhatmoot.Onanymap,RussiasexclaveofKaliningradisacentral
probleminkeepingthisaconventionalfight,becausethisisapieceofRussianterritorythatNATOmusteitherbypassor
neutralizetoreinforcetheBaltics.ThatsnotjustaRussianfort,projectinglongarcsofanti-accessandareadenial
weaponrybetweenPolandandLithuaniaitsalsoliabletobeanuclearlandmine.

ThereisapossibilitythatifRussianforcesaresufficientlydegradedordefeatedinKaliningradthatMoscowmayresortto
orthreatennuclearfirstuse.Evenifwefillallthosehexsquareswithblueforces,itdoesntgetaroundtheissuethat
NATOsprizeforitsvictoryisnotnecessarilythesuccessfulrescueoftheBaltics,butaninboundtacticalnuclearwarhead.
RANDsreportalludestotheminorproblemofescalation(allofusdyinginnuclearoblivion),butsuchthoughtsgetinthe
wayofgamingouthowmanyheavyarmorbrigadesoneneedsinontheeasternflank.Nuclearescalationisnotassured,
butgiventheimpactofsuchanoutcome,perhapsthebeststrategyistomakedecisionsthataffordthemostopportunities
formanagingescalationdynamics.Thatmeansaforcepostureorientedtowardstrategicflexibility,notentrenchment.

TheRussiansareComing,theRussiansareComing

Whenweunderstandthenuclearramificationsofthisentirediscussion,itbecomesclearhowmadmuchofthe
argumentationoverconventionaldeterrenceintheBalticstrulyis.Thereisnotevenameagerattempttoexplainhow
deterrencehasfailedorwhyRussiawouldattackNATO,despitethefactthatthroughmostoftheColdWarandintothe
present,deterrencehasrestedmoreonthethreatofpunishment.TheU.S.-Russiarelationshipalwaysenjoyeddeterrenceby
punishmentaplenty(nooffensetoAirLandwarriors),throughnuclearandsubsequentlyconventionalretaliation.Despitethe
currenttensionsandRussiasinvasionofUkraine,thereslittletoindicatethatthisequilibriumhasbeenlost.

WhyisitsohardforapartofthepolicyestablishmenttounderstandthatNATOisnotUkraine?Thattheconsiderations
involvedinmaulingaweak,unalliedneighborononehandandtakingontheworldspreeminentmilitarypowerontheother
arelikelytobecompletelydifferent?Insteadofcredibleanalysis,wehavebeentreatedtoaseriesofill-structurednarratives
thatstacktheRussiathreatashighasnecessarytogetherwithunfoundedclaimsthatdeterrencehasbeenlost.RANDs
wargamerswrite:

RussiatodaylookstoitsnorthwestandseeslittlebetweenitsforcesandtheBalticSeabuthighwayandthe
prospectofforcingNATOintothethree-sidedcornerdescribedabove.Ourgoalwastodeviseaposturethat
wouldpresentanalternativelandscape.

Sowhatschangedinthelast16years?IftheBalticsaresuchlow-hangingfruit,whydoesntPutininvade?Surelyitisnot
aloveofNATOthathasstayedhishandforsomanyyears.NATOistoldthatithaslostdeterrenceandyetsomemystical
forceisclearlydeterringRussia.CoulditbeU.S.treatycommitments,thesamethingthatdeterredtheSovietUnionall
thoseyears?IfRussiadoesnottakeNATOguaranteesseriously,andisnotdeterredbytheriskofwarwiththeUnited
States,thenwhyinvadeandthreatenthosewhoconsiderjoiningthealliance?TheresneverbeenaRussianofficial
statementtotheeffectthatMoscowdoesnottakeU.S.treatyobligationsseriously,noraseriousrepositioningofRussian
forcestoNATOsborderssignalinganyintenttoinvade.Itisevenmoreworrisomethatnoattemptsarebeingmadeto
intellectuallylinktherecommendationstoNATOwithananalysisofRussianforcepostureandintentintheBaltics.

CarefulWithMoreisMore

AhostofWesterndefenseestablishmentsareseeingredwhentheylookatRussiatoday,especiallytheU.S.policy
community.IdontwanttodiscourageEUCOMfromgettingmoreforcesintoEuropeasitcertainlyneedsthem,butwe
shouldalsobecarefulnottooverplaythedesiretostickittoRussiaandcreateasecuritydilemma.Remember,U.S.forces
areonRussiasbordernow,whichiswhyinthiscaseIrespectfullydisagreewithElbridgeColbyandsomeofhisthinking
inarticleslikeStepUptoStandDowninForeignAffairs.RussiasarmywillnotretreatorstepdownfromRussia.
RussiashistoricalandculturalcapitalofSt.PetersburgisnotfarfromtheBalticborder.IfNATOstepsuptoomuch,the
Russianmilitarywilltoo,andthenwewillbestaringataforcebiddingcontestwithoneofEurasiaspremierlandpowers.
Thatstrikesmeasapoorplan.

Ironically,contrarytomanyoftheassertionsbytheRussiansarecomingcamp,duringtheperiodofmilitaryreforms
between2009and2012theRussianmilitarymoved,consolidated,ordisbandedmanyoftheformationsintheWestern
MilitaryDistrictfacingNATOsborders.Since2013,someofthemilitarystrengthhasbeentricklingbacknearMoscow,
buttheresnosuddenmilitarizationonNATOsborders.Russiaannouncedthecreationofthe1stTankArmyoutside
Moscow,thoughtheunithasyettoform,andlikeNATOsveryhighreadinesstaskforce,isaspirationallynamed.Since
2014,RussiasGeneralStaffhasfocusedonpreparingforanotherpossiblewarwithUkraineandacolorrevolutionin
Belarus,andstilllackspermanentlystationedunitsoneithercountrysborders.RussiasMinisterofDefensehasannounced
theformationofthreenewdivisions(thesewerealreadyannouncedpiecemealoverthepasttwoyears).Twowillbe
positionedonUkraineseasternmostborders,andonebetweenUkraineandBelarus.WecandiscerninRussianforce
postureandorganizationwhereMoscowseestheneedforpermanentlybasedforces,adivisionlevelcommandstaff,and
theabilitytoattackonshortnotice.ItsUkraine,notNATO.Inessence,thesewillbeexpandedbrigadesformedfrom
existingunitswithdivision-levelcommandstaffs.WhileNATOhasRussiaonitsmind,Moscowisinsteadthinkingabout
contingenciesinUkraineandBelarus.

Thisisoneoftheclearestexampleswherethemoredeterrenceargumentsseemfactuallydivorcedfromchangesin
RussianforcepostureandperhapstheRussianmilitaryanalysiscommunityasawhole.WhilethefieldofRussianmilitary
analysisisbusilystudyingthelayoutofRussianforcesandtheircapabilities,largepartsofthepolicycommunityareakinto
aplaneflyingaboveit,detachedandunencumberedbythefactsontheground.Yes,Russiasbrigadescangenerate
battalionstoinvadetheBaltics,buteverythingaboutRussiasforcepostureindicatesacountryill-preparedforwarwith
NATO.Thereserveandmobilizationsystemhasbeenbrokeneversincethemilitaryreformslaunchedin2008.The
Russianarmyissimplynotsetuptooccupyaninvadedcountry,particularlyonelikelytoresist.Therearefewpermanent
unitsbasedonNATOsbordersandnohighertiercommandstructurestoorganizeafightusingunitspiecedtogetherfrom
otherdistricts.

Forallthechargedrhetoric,thereisadearthofmilitarysubstancebehindthisconfrontationonbothsides,andweshould
seektokeepitthatway.IfNATOandEUCOMgettheforceposturewrong,Russianplanscanchange,andthesedivisions
mayendupbeingformedtothenorthbytheBalticborder.PlacetoomanyunitsintheBalticsandNATOcreatesa
vulnerabilityforMoscowbothinKaliningradandSt.Petersburg,oneRussianleaderswillbeforcedtoredress.Patience
maynotrulethedayinaprolongedstandoff,astheColdWarwasnotwithoutitsshareofcrises.Remember,Putinsaidin
October2015,thestreetsofLeningradtaughtmeonething:Ifafightsinevitable,youmuststrikefirst.

Rightnow,havingtoomanyNATOunitsintheeastseemslikeagoodproblemtohave,butNATOshouldavoidrealizinga
self-fulfilledprophecyinpursuitofthatmysticalstuff:conventionaldeterrence.Howwillweknowwhenwehaveit?Willit
feeldifferentfromwhenwedont,orwillproponentsofamorerobustpresenceinEuropesimplytellsusagainthatwe
needmore?Moreisalwaystheanswerforasectionofthepolicyestablishmentthathasnevermetaforwarddeploymentor
weaponsystemprocurementtheydidntlike.NATOsinsecurityandtheRussianthreatareeffectiveargumentsfor
spendingonarangeofweaponsplatforms,systems,andcapabilities.ShlapakandJohnsonhavewovenahostofarguments
abouthowtheU.S.armyisoutgunnedbyRussiantanks,outrangedbyartillery,andofcourseoutnumbered.Itsambitious,
butperhapstheallegeddeterrenceproblemcanserveasthebasisforacompleteoverhauloftheU.S.Army,withanew
waveofspendingliketheBig5procurementsfromthe1980s:theApache,BlackHawk,Abrams,Bradley,andPatriot
systems.

Whilesomepartsoftheestablishmentarekeenlydiscussingtechnologicalbreakthroughsandthefutureofwarfaretake
DeputySecretaryofDefenseBobWorkandthethirdoffsetothersarestillmeasuringtheArmysartillerytubesize
relativetoRussias,whosemilitaryhadtraditionallybeenoneoftheworldsmostartillery-heavyforces.In2016,countries
likeAzerbaijanaredeployingloiteringdronemunitionsagainsttheiradversaries,yettheconversationonRussiainsome
circlesstillrevolvesaroundthatprecioustubesizeandcalibergap.Indeed,Russiasartillerytubesarebigger,firefurther,
andtheirvehicleshavebetterfirepower,butamoresophisticatedknowledgeofRussianmilitarycapabilitiesrevealsthatthis
isallgeneralizationinplaceofnuance.Weshouldtemperthisprocurementdrumbeatwithcommonsense,becauseitis
doubtfulthattheU.S.militarycanbeconfiguredtobeatoneoftheworldsleadinglandpowersandtakeonChinaonthe
highseas,alongwithahostofotherglobalcontingenciesatthesametime.

Insteadofjustlookingatgapsincaliber,theUnitedStatesshouldfocusontheprofoundadvantagesitretainsinairpower,
seapower,underseawarfare,andinthewaytheU.S.militaryfightsasawhole.WashingtondoesntneedtomatchRussia
stickforsticktomaintainaleadingedgeintechnologyandretaindeterrencebypunishment,andmoreimportantlyit
shouldnt.

ASmarterSetofAnswerstoNATOsProblems

First,Iagreeentirelythatweneedtorebuildtheinfrastructureandlogisticsthatwouldsupportaterritorialdefenseof
Europetomakeanymilitaryposturetherecredible.TheArmyisalsoinneedofmodernizationtoputitinabetterplace
versusanypeeradversaryingeneral,thoughitcouldbeinformedbyamoresophisticatedanalysisoftheRussianmilitary
thanthatofferedbyatapemeasure.However,weshouldnotdeludeourselves,orletothersdeludeus,intothinkingthat
thereisaworkaroundthefactthathavingalandwarwithRussiaonitsborderisapoorproposition.Thisisawell-trodden
pathinmilitaryhistorywithmorelosersthanwinners,includingboththosewhosemilitaryhadaqualitativeedgeandthose
withvastnumericalsuperiority.

IrespectColbysapproach,butsomeofhisstatementsseempoorlylinkedtodemonstratedRussianthinkingorstrategy:
Suchapostureshouldbeabletoholdoff,oratleastbogdownandbloody,aRussianforceevenifitcannotquickly
defeatituntilNATOcansurgetheforcesneededtoprevailforward.Themapisonelargeargumentinandofitself
againstsuchnotions.U.S.forcedeploymentsarenotananswertopoliticalwarfare,norisbuildingaMaginotLinefacing
RussiaanysmarterthanitwasforFranceinthe1930s.AsformerSecretaryofDefenseChuckHagelrecentlysaidabout
NATOsproposedforcedeployments,Imnotsuretheressomerealstrategicthinkingthere.

Thewayforwardistoshoreupdeterrencebypunishment,whichhasbeenworkingjustfinealltheseyears.Thatmeans
leveragingU.S.airpowerandtheNavyasaglobalforceabletohorizontallyexpandthetheaterofconflictandinflict
colossalmilitaryandeconomicpunishmentonRussiashoulditaggressagainstaNATOmemberstate.Asaconsolationto
AirLandBattlewarriors,perhapswecancallthestrategyAir-to-LandBattle.ItalsomeanstheUnitedStatesmustfocuson
mobilityintheaterandassetsthatcounter,ratherthanmatch,theRussianmilitary.ThisiswhyGen.BenHodges,
commanderofU.S.ArmyEurope,isrightinarguingthatthenumberoneneedisforArmycombataviationinEurope.The
UnitedStatesshouldalsorevisitthenucleartoolkit,sincethecrediblethreatofnuclearescalationhadalwaysbeenan
importantpillarindeterringRussianaggressionagainstNATO.TheforceintheBalticsshouldserveasatripwire,activating
deterrencebypunishmentandprovidingassurancetoallies,butitleavesthecompellenceproblemasdemonstratedin
Ukrainecompletelyunanswered.

NATOsbestanswertocompellenceisstrategicflexibilityandambiguityofresponse.WhileArticleVdictatesthedefense
ofamember,itdoesntstipulatewhatthatdefensemustbe,howitshouldtakeshape,orwhereitwillbeapplied.WithU.S.
forcesinplace,NATOmemberscanbeassuredthatArticleVwillbetriggered,butwhathappensnextshouldbelefta
questionmark.ThemoreNATOemphasizestheRussianthreatandarguesforfixedforcesinplace,thelesscapablyitcan
defendachallengetoitscredibilityasanalliance.Anyonecancounttheorderofbattleandthebalanceofforces.By
introducingambiguityinitspotentialresponseonceArticleVhasbeendeclared,NATOreducesthechanceitcaneasilybe
manipulatedintoacredibilitytest.TheobjectiveshouldbeshroudingaBaltichigh-endfightinincalculableriskforRussia
whilemaintaininguncertaintyandstrategicflexibilitywithairandnavalassets.

WilltheBalticstatesbesatisfiedwithanythinglessthanseveralAmericanbrigades?Probablynot.Unfortunately,satisfying
themanddefendingthemarenotnecessarilythesametask.IfEUCOMisswitchingfromassurancetodeterrenceorto
warfighting,thefurtherbackAmericanfirepowergoes,themoreusefulitis.Thatmeansconcentratingonthedistinct
advantagestheUnitedStateshasintheairandseadomains,ratherthanforward-basinggroundforces.Washingtonmust
alsochangehowitthinksaboutthisproblemset.Todaywehaveawoefulcapabilitytorhetoricgapwhenitcomestothe
Russiathreat,andthecapabilitywillnotgetthereovernight.ThecurrentalphabetsoupofNATObuzzwords
reassurance,resolve,anddeterrenceareallaboutraisingawarenessoftheRussianthreat.Iwouldarguethatretaliation,
ambiguity,strategicflexibility,andforcemobilityshouldbeaddedtothelexicontostructurethinkingonhowtoaddressthe
challenge.

MichaelKofmanisanAnalystatCNACorporationandaFellowattheWilsonCentersKennanInstitute.Previouslyhe
servedasProgramManageratNationalDefenseUniversity.Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/13/201612:05:31PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS....PLUSINTERESTINGPBWARNING][JDDD]Fwd:1stpg.item:"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdopingoperation
Subject:
detailedbylabchiefontherun+9MoreStories....[ODDD]OCSEStoriesthatneeda2nd&3rdlook!!......[ILANB]OldEnemie...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,May13,201611:59AM
Subject:Fwd:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS....PLUSINTERESTINGPBWARNING][JDDD]Fwd:1stpg.item:"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdoping
operationdetailedbylabchiefontherun+9MoreStories....[ODDD]OCSEStoriesthatneeda2nd&3rdlook!!......[ILANB]Old
Enemie...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at2:51PM
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS....PLUSINTERESTINGPBWARNING][JDDD]Fwd:1stpg.item:"Russian[Sochi]
OLYMPICdopingoperationdetailedbylabchiefontherun+9MoreStories....[ODDD]OCSEStoriesthatneeda2nd&3rd
look!!......[ILANB]OldEnemiesareback!!First(reset)RU,Now(dead)ALQ......[PBStories....PluswarningaboutRU
shenaniginsatEuro-vision2016DESERVESATTENTION]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at11:56AM
Subject:First-pageitem--"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdopingoperationdetailedbylabchiefontherun,"nytimes.com,
5/13
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Fwd:First-pageitem--"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdopingoperationdetailedbylabchiefontherun,"
nytimes.com,5/13

DozensofRussianathletesatthe2014WinterOlympicsinSochi,includingatleast15medalwinners,
werepartofastate-rundopingprogram,meticulouslyplannedforyearstoensuredominanceatthe
Games.Accordingto[GrigoryRodchenkov]thedirectorofthecountrysanti-dopinglaboratoryatthe
time.

And:Absurd,groundless,defamatory:RussiareactstoNYTdopingallegations,
themoscowtimes.com,5/13

And:BrianWHITMORE,PutinsSYNDICATEandthelaw,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27732468.html

Ifyouvenationalizedandweaponizedyourmafia,itsonlynaturaltoviewaninvestigationinto
organizedcrimeasaggression.Ifyouusecorruptionasatoolofstatecraft,youllprobablyseeefforts
tofostergreatertransparencyashostile.Ifassassinations,embezzlement,moneylaundering,andarms
traffickingarepartofyourforeignpolicytoolkit,itisnotsurprisingthatyouthinkprosecutingsuch
thingsisanactofwar.AleksandrBASTRYKINcertainlythinksitis.

And:SeanMcFATE,HowtheU.S.canDEFEATPutinsshadowwar,thedailybeast.com,5/13

PutinhasaczarsvisionforGreaterRussia,andthestrategicmindtoachieveit.Hisobjectiveis
simple:GettheU.S.OUTOFNATO,thenextendRussiassphereofinfluencetotheAtlantic.If
TRUMPiselected,thenIthinkitcouldhappen.

And:ThethreetopfiguresonRBCseditorialboardhavebeenPURGED:Thedismantlingofthe
independentnewsorganizationRBC:HowRussiagainedandtodaylostagreatsourceofnews,
meduza.io,5/13

And:TheentireleadershipofRBChasbeenremoved:thesocialmediaaebiddingfarewellto
independentmassmedia,http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1439299/

And:PutinFOREVER,theRussianpresidentcanbeexpectedtoremaininpowerpast2024,forthe
remainderofhislife:http://www.rosbalt.ru/2016/05/13/1513941.html

And:Reuters:GERMANYsaysRussiaprobablybehind[2015]CYBERATTACKonBundestag,
unian.info,5/13

RussianintelligenceagencieswereprobablyresponsibleforamassivecyberattackonGermanyslower
houseofparliamentlastyearwhichforceditscomputersystemstobeshutdownfordays,Germanys
domesticintelligenceagencysaidonFriday

And:HowRussiaallowedhomegrownRADICALStogoandfightinSYRIA,reuters.com,5/13
Majorinvestigativearticle

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at10:03AM
Subject:Ukraine:***********KHPG,ODNoteandUSOSCE[ED:VLADBREAKIN'REALLYBAD]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

KharkivHumanRightsProtectionGroup(3)
CrimeanTatarMejlisLeaderArrestedonExtremismCharges
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1463067076

StalinistEchoesinNewArmedArrestsinRussian-occupiedCrimea
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1463054237

Ukrainianbloggergetslongsentenceforexpressingcontentiousviews
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1463060983

ODNote:Imre-sendingthefollowing,asImnotsureyesterdaysmailinggotthroughto
everyoneduetosomeissuesonthisend.Pleasetakethetimetoreadandconsiderdisseminating.
TheresmuchtalkinthistownaboutRussiasdisinformationcampaignandgoodideasand
legislationonhowtomoreeffectivelyandsystematicallycounterit.Perhapsonesmallpartofthat
equationismoreeffectivelyutilizingstatementssuchastheseoratleasttheinformationthereinas
partofoureffortstogetoutthetruth?
TodaysUSstatementsinVienna.AgaincallingouttheRussiansandtheirseparatistsatraps:
USMissiontotheOSCE
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine:StatementtothePC
AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna,May12,2016
http://osce.usmission.gov/russias-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc-4/
TheUnitedStateswelcomestheoverallreductioninfightingineasternUkrainefollowingtheApril30ceasefirerecommitment,but
weareconcernedthatcombinedRussian-separatistforcescontinuetheirpatternofceasefireviolationsandprovocations.Russia
andtheseparatistshaveconsistentlyfollowedeachceasefireineasternUkrainewithrenewedattacksongovernmentforces.The
SMMrecordedover1,000ceasefireviolationsonMay8alone.WecalluponcombinedRussian-separatistforcestoendtheir
provocationsandfullyrespecttheceasefire.WeencouragetheSMMtoattributeresponsibilityforceasefireviolationswheneverit
can,whichwillhelptheinternationalcommunityputpressureonviolatorstohonorthecurrent,tenuousceasefire.

Thepresenceofheavyweaponsinseparatist-controlledareasandincloseproximitytothelineofcontactmeanssmallarmsfire
canquicklyescalatetofull-scaleviolence.CombinedRussian-separatistforceshavedeclaredonlyafractionoftheirweaponryto
theSMM,whichhasnonethelessreportedthepresenceofanundiminishedarsenalofheavyweaponsinseparatist-heldLuhansk,
includingtanks,howitzers,armoredcombatvehicles,andsurface-to-airmissilesystems.CombinedRussian-separatistforces
claimedthattheseweaponswereinLuhanskforaparade,eventhoughtheirpresencewasclearlycontrarytotheMinsk
agreements.Thisweekalone,theSMMobservedfourteentimesasmanyproscribedweaponsinseparatist-heldareasasthey
foundinareasundergovernmentcontrol.This,eventhoughRussian-separatistforcescontinuetodenyunfettered,safeaccessto
theSMM.WecalluponRussiaandtheseparatiststowithdrawtheirweaponstostoragesitesandholdingareasimmediately.
Givenitsobviousinfluencewiththeseparatistsandthefactthatitarms,trains,andfightsalongsidetheminUkraine,Russiaclearly
hastheabilitytoensurethattheseparatistswithdrawproscribedheavyweapons.Weunderscoreonceagainthatlocalelectionsin
certainareasofDonetskandLuhanskcannotbeheldatgunpoint.

Colleagues,twoweeksagoboththechairoftheTrilateralContactGroup(TCG)andthechairoftheTCGshumanitarianworking
groupexpressedtheirhopethatprisonerswouldatlastbeexchangedinlargenumbers,onthebasisoftheall-for-allprinciplein
theMinskPackageofMeasures.Suchanexchangewouldhelpbuildmuch-neededconfidenceandrestorepositivemomentumfor
diplomatictalks.WeapplaudtheGovernmentofUkraineforagreeingtoreleasetwoprisonersforeveryonereleasedbythe
separatistsinordertojump-starttheprocess.Unfortunately,theseparatistshaverenegedonaprisonerexchangeagreement.We
hopetoseeprogressonprisonerexchangesinthecomingdays.Ofcourse,Russiamustalsoreleasethoseitunjustlyholdson
Russianterritory,includingNadiyaSavchenko,consistentwithitsobligationsundertheMinskagreements.

Nolessimportantistheissueofmissingpersons.Hundredsoffamiliesareinanguish,notknowingwhethertheirlovedonesare
aliveordead.SuchisthefateofVictoriaOstrovskaya,aresidentofHorlivka,whosehusbandVictordisappearednearlytwo
yearsagoafterleavinghometocareforhisdisabledmother.WerecognizeUkrainesgoodfaitheffortsinthisarea,asithasgiven
theInternationalCommitteeoftheRedCrossaccesstoitsdetaineesandexpressedsupportfortheestablishmentofamechanism
onmissingpersons.Wecalluponso-calledseparatistauthoritiestoworkwiththeICRCandotherstohelpfacilitatetheaccounting
ofthosemissingintheconflict.

Longlinesofcivilianswaitingatthelineofcontactdemonstratetheneedformoresafecrossingpoints.WerecognizeUkraines
commitmenttoopenanothercrossingpointinZolote,andcallonRussiaandtheseparatiststotakethestepsnecessaryforthis
positivedevelopmenttooccur.TheRussianFederationandtheseparatistsitbacksshouldallowdeminingoftheareaandpull
heavyweaponsbackfromZoloteandallcrossingpoints.WeremindtheinternationalcommunitythatRussiaandtheseparatists
haveblockedaccesstointernationalhumanitarianorganizationssincelastsummer,deprivingresidentsoftheDonbasmuchneeded
foodandmedicine.Russiaandtheseparatistsmustreversethatpolicyimmediatelyandallowthedeliveryoflifesavingassistance.

MadamChair,colleagues,RussiasongoingabusesanddefianceofOSCEprinciplesandcommitmentsoccurnotjustinthe
DonbasbutinRussian-occupiedCrimea.OnMay6,Russianauthoritiesarrestedmorethan50CrimeanTatarsleavingamosque
afterFridayprayersfornothavingtheirpassportstopresenttothepolice.Thisincident,sadly,isnotisolated,butpartofa
systematiccampaignofoppressionanddiscriminationagainsttheCrimeanTatarcommunityandanyoneelsewhodarestovoice
disagreementwiththedefactoauthorities.U.S.sanctionsagainsttheRussianFederationrelatedtoitsoccupationofCrimeawill
remaininplaceuntiltheoccupationendsandRussiareturnscontrolofCrimeatoUkraine.SanctionsimposedupontheRussian
FederationforitsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitscommitmentsintheMinsk
agreements.
Thankyou,MadamChair.
USMissiontotheOSCE
Onthe72ndAnniversaryoftheDeportationoftheCrimeanTartars|StatementtothePC

http://osce.usmission.gov/72nd-anniversary-deportation-crimean-tartars-statement-pc/

OnMay18,1944,theSovietgovernmentorderedthemassdeportationofover230,000CrimeanTatarsfromtheirhomeland.72
yearswillhavepassedsincethousandsoffamilieswereforciblyseparatedsomecitizensweregivenminuteswarningand
depositedonthefreezingsteppesofKazakhstanandUzbekistan.Nearlyhalfofthosedeported,mostlywomenandchildren,
perishedbetween1944and1947.TheCrimeanTatarcommunityrelivedthispainfulmemoryforgenerations,andpassedstories
ofthedeportationdowntothosewhocarryonTatartraditionstoday.

Thescopeofthistragedybearsremembrance,allthemoresobecausethepersecutionoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleisnotmerelya
historicalfact,itisapresent-dayrealityinRussia-occupiedCrimea.TheRussiangovernmenthascarriedoutacampaignof
violence,includingkillings,disappearances,imprisonment,andtortureagainstthosewhoopposetheoccupation.Russiahas
bannedtheCrimeanTatarMejlisthesoleindependent,legally-recognizedvoiceoftheTatarpeople.IthasshutdownTatar
languagemediaoutletsandcutoffTatar-languageschools.

OccupationauthoritieshavebarredCrimeanTatarsfromgatheringpubliclyinremembranceofthemassdeportationcarriedoutin
theSovietera.Theroundupofover50CrimeanTatarsonMay6fornotcarryingtheirpassportsborechillingechoesofthe
deportation,particularlyafteroccupationauthoritiesclaimedthepolicewereverifyingcompliancewithmigrationlegislation.

RussiamustenditsrepressionofCrimeanTatars,andallwhoarevictimsofitsoccupation,byupholdinginternationallawinstead
ofthwartingit,andprotectingthefreedomsofexpression,peacefulassembly,association,andreligion.Weagainrenewourcallfor
RussiatoimmediatelyenditsoccupationofCrimea.OurCrimea-relatedsanctionswillremaininforceuntilRussiareturnsthis
Ukrainianterritory.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:IlanBerman<berman@afpc.org>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at12:29PM
Subject:Bermanonal-Qaeda'scomebackinUSAToday
To:IlanBerman<berman@afpc.org>

AlQaeda Resurrects Under ISIL Shadow

Ilan Berman
May 13, 2016

Whatever happened to alQaeda? A decadeandahalf ago, it perpetrated the single largest act of
international terrorism to ever take place on American soil. Yet, these days, Osama bin Laden's terror
network barely warrants a mention in the mainstream news media. Instead, it is alQaeda's onetime Iraqi
franchise, now known as the Islamic State, or ISIL, which commands near total attention in both politics and
the press. That has never been more true than on Iraq's bloodiest day of 2016 when bombs swept through
Baghdad killing at least 93.
Perhaps that's understandable. Bin Laden was killed in a U.S. special operations raid in Pakistan in 2011. And
over the past two years, ISIL's explosive growth in Iraq and Syria, its unparalleled brutality and its ability to
mobilize disaffected Muslims have helped catapult the terrorist group to the status of global public enemy
No. 1. Despite notable gains by the expanding military coalition being marshaled against it, the group for the
moment remains a formidable and entrenched foe.

But recent days have also brought a timely reminder that ISIL's progenitor, too, is still alive and kicking. As
Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute details in Foreign Policy magazine, alQaeda is poised to establish
a proto state in northern Syria, where its regional affiliate, Jabhat alNusra, has managed to carve out a
fiefdom of its own in the midst of the Syrian civil war.

That revelation is significant for at least three reasons:

AlQaeda is playing a long game. The "scorched earth" strategy and brutal tactics of ISIL, and international
attention they have engendered, have bought alQaeda muchneeded breathing room. The bin Laden
network has used this time wisely, launching an extensive "rebranding" campaign and successfully positioning
itself as the more reasonable Salafi alternative to ISIL in various jihadist theaters. And, as Nusra's advances in
northern Syria showcase, its message is resonating.

AlQaeda's strategy is shifting. "The Islamic State and alQaeda use different tactics in Syria," Lister notes,
"but their ultimate objective there is the same: the creation of an Islamic emirate." That hasn't always been
the case. Before the rise of ISIL, alQaeda's ideologues talked in principle about the creation of a "caliphate"
but eschewed territorial control in practice and even warned other Islamist movements not to get caught
up in the daytoday drudgery of statebuilding. But since ISIL's declaration of a "caliphate" in June 2014, and
the evident support for this idea in Islamist circles, the bin Laden network appears to have substantially
revised its stance on the matter and is seeking a similar objective.

AlQaeda still has mass appeal. As Lister recounts, Nusra's successes in Syria have been made possible in
large part by an influx of new recruits. That suggests our understanding of the "foreign fighter" phenomenon
is woefully inadequate. U.S. and allied intelligence agencies now estimate that upwards of 27,000 foreign
fighters have joined the jihad in Iraq and Syria. But their analysis tends to focus on tracking these foreign
fighters and identifying their countries of origin. Far less attention is paid to with whom, exactly, these
militants affiliate once they arrive on the battlefield. Nusra's expanding reach indicates that while ISIL is a
major beneficiary of this influx, it is hardly the only one.

All of which, in turn, implies that alQaeda is finding opportunity within adversity. There can be no question
that the group has been hurt by the rise of ISIL. But its most recent moves in Syria suggest strongly
that having had both the time and the opportunity to regroup and restructure, the bin Laden network
is positioning itself for a comeback.

Ilan Berman is Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/05/13/alqaedasyriarebrandingbinladenalnusraislamic
statecolumn/84243178/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at11:59AM
Subject:Russia'wasbehindGermanparliamenthack'-BBCNews
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Oh,Gosh,Darnit!And,Putinpromisedhewouldn'tdothatanymore!It'sgettingtothepointwhereyoujustcan'ttrustanyone!

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36284447

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at12:23PM
Subject:RussianInsiderSaysState-RunDopingFueledOlympicGold-TheNewYorkTimes
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

PutinplaysRope-A-DopewiththerestoftheworldasdruggedupRussianathletesStealtheGoldattheSochiWinterOlympics
201/4.[ED:Worse.....Vladpumpeduphismasseswith'nationalpride'ashepreparedtotakeCrimea...]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/13/sports/russia-doping-sochi-olympics-2014.html?
emc=edit_na_20160512&nlid=65195783&ref=cta&_r=0

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at12:41PM
Subject:WhyisRussiasodesperatetowin[correction:STEAL]Eurovision?-BBCNews
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

AfterStealingtheGoldattheSochiWinterOlympics(seeseparaterelatedstory),PutinisnowStealingtheGoldattheEurovision
SongContestinStockholm.

ThevotingintheEurovisionContestisdonebySMSfrompeople'smobilephones.Youcanvoteforanycountry'scandidate
exceptyourown.Putin'sansweristobuyuptensandtensofthousandsofmobilephonenumbersthroughoutEuropeanduse
computerbankstosendintheSMSvotesforRussia'scandidate.

ThegoalofthisverycostlyeffortistoknockoutUkraine'scandidate,Jamala,whosesong,"1944,"referenceshergrandparents
sufferingduringtheRussianGenocideofCrimeanTartarsin1944.(Russiaforciblyexpelled,literallyovernight,theentireCrimean
TartarpopulationtoCentralAsiakillingsome300,000intheprocess.)

Putinhadalreadyspentmanymillionstoputtogetherasuperslickactwithfarmoredecorandelectronicsthantalent.Then
Jamalachimedinwith"1944"andgavePutinthevapors!Tostopher,heisspendingmillionsonnon-RussianEuropeanphone
numberstostealtheFirstPrize.

Whenyouhave$1.3TrillionstashedinPanama,youcanaffordtodothesethings!ThisisarealliveSMERS/Hinaworldwithno
JamesBondyet.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36269302

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/14/201604:54:31PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'USMissileBaseThreatNordicsTell
Subject:
OBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3...
Attachments: DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirPutin.docx

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,May14,20164:36PM
Subject:Fwd:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'USMissileBaseThreat
NordicsTellOBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at7:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'
USMissileBaseThreatNordicsTellOBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3Tgo!!]BBC
ToutsRUActinEuro-VisionKitsch,glitzandpoliticsasRussiaslatedtowinEurovision......PLUS"TALESFROMTHEDARKSIDE:LEFT&RIGHT"
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:29AM
Subject:PutinsaysRussiawill'neutralisethreats'afterUSopensmissilebase-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,Nadia<ronnadialiteplo@hotmail.com>,"R.Shuhan"<roma.shuhan@yahoo.com>,RoxyWacyk
<roxy.wacyk@gmail.com>,GloriaHorbaty<gphorbaty@hotmail.com>,mmshevchuk@aol.com,MariaWalchuk<mlwalchuk@gmail.com>,Mariya
Andriyovych<mariyand5@gmail.com>,MotriaM<motryasua@earthlink.net>,MaryMulyk<marusiadm@yahoo.com>,IJadlicky<ijadlicky@verizon.net>,
NatalieSonetysky<nataliapalidwor@yahoo.com>,AlexandraJuzeniw<lesiajuz@verizon.net>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36289155

PutinsaysRussiawill'neutralisethreats'afterUSopensmissile
base

ReutersVladimirPutinwarnedthat
Russiawouldbeforcedto"neutralise"perceivedthreats.
PresidentVladimirPutinhasescalatedRussiancriticismofanewUSmissiledefencestationinRomania,sayinghiscountrywill
"neutraliseemergingthreats".

HeargueditwasaimedatweakeningRussia'snuclearpowerandvowedtoincreaseRussiandefencespending.

USPresidentBarackObamavoicedconcernaboutRussia's"growingaggressivemilitarypresence".

NatosaysthebaseisaimedatpotentialthreatsfromtheMiddleEast.

TheUSonThursdayactivatedtheestimated$800m(550m700m)missileshieldinDeveselu,southernRomania.

NatoSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergandotherseniorofficialsfromthemilitaryallianceattendedtheopeningceremony,ataformerRomanian
airbase.

OnFriday,anotherphaseoftheprojectwaslaunchedinPolandwithagroundbreakingceremonyatRedzikowo,neartheBalticSea.Aegismissiles
aretobecomeoperationaltherein2018.

Warofwords
SpeakingtoRussianofficialsinMoscow,MrPutinsaid:"Thisisnotadefencesystem.ThisispartofaUSnuclearstrategicpotentialbroughtontoa
periphery.

APTheDeveselubasefeaturesaradarbuilding

"Inthiscase,EasternEuropeissuchaperiphery.Thosepeopletakingsuchdecisionsmustknowthatuntilnowtheyhavelivedcalm,fairlywell-off
andinsafety.

"Now,astheseelementsofballisticmissiledefencearedeployed,weareforcedtothinkhowtoneutralisetheemergingthreatstotheRussian
Federation."

SpeakinglateratameetingofleadersofSweden,Denmark,Finland,NorwayandIcelandattheWhiteHouse,MrObamasaid:"Weareunitedin
ourconcernaboutRussia'sgrowingaggressivemilitarypresenceandpostureintheBaltic-Nordicregion."

"WewillbemaintainingongoingdialogueandseekcooperationwithRussia,butwealsowanttomakesurethatwearepreparedandstrong,and
wewanttoencourageRussiatokeepitsmilitaryactivitiesinfullcompliancewithinternationalobligations,"hesaid.

TheRomaniansitehostsradarandSM-3missileinterceptors,andwillbeintegratedintoNato'smissileshieldwhentheblocmeetsthissummer.

RelationsbetweentheWestandRussiahavedeterioratedsinceMoscow'sannexationofUkraine'ssouthernCrimeapeninsulain2014afteran
internationallyunrecognisedreferendumonself-determination.

AerialencountersbetweenRussiaandtheUSanditsallieshaveescalatedsignificantly,intheformofviolationsofnationalairspace,narrowly
avoidedmid-aircollisionsandcloseencountersatseaandsimulatedattackruns.

Howdoesthemissileshieldwork?

Thedefencesystemallowson-shoresitesandwarshipstoshootdownenemyballisticmissileswhiletheyarestillinspace.

Theinterceptormissilesarefiredtohitmissilesbeforetheyre-entertheatmosphere,stoppingthemwellbeforethereisanydangerofcausingany
damage.

AnewpieceinNato'smissiledefencejigsaw

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:32AM
Subject:FacingRussianthreat,Nordicleaderstalktactics-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36263331

FacingRussianthreat,Nordicleaderstalktactics
TheleadersoffiveNordiccountriesaremeetingPresidentBarackObamaforasummitattheWhiteHouse.They'lltalkaboutthe
environment,refugees-andthepossibilityofafutureconflictwithRussia.

PresidentObamaishostingtheWhiteHouse'sfirst-everUS-NordicLeadersSummitonanunluckyday,Fridaythe13th.ButNordicofficialssaid
thatthey'renotsuperstitious.

TheagendaincludesdiscussionsabouttherefugeecrisisandNordiccontributionstothefightagainsttheIslamicStategroup.Swedishofficialsare
facedwithaninfluxofa"very,veryhigh"numberofrefugees,saidAmbassadorBjrnLyrvall.

MeanwhileDenmark,asLarsGertLose,theirambassadortotheUS,toldme,issending60specialforcestoIraqandSyria.

GettyImagesPresidentPutin,showninFinlandin2013,hasunnervedsomepeopleinNordiccountries

OnFridayevening,theNordicofficialswillattendastatedinnerattheWhiteHouse.

Statedinnersarerelativelyrare.SincemovingintotheWhiteHouse,theObamashavehostedlessthanadozen-fortheleadersofIndia,China,the
UKandahandfulofothercountries.

TheNordicguestsseemalittlesurprisedbytheattention.

Buttheyalsoknow-inavisceralway-whythey'vebecomeimportanttoAmericans.RussiansarenowactingoutinnorthernEuropeinawaythat
hasn'tbeenseensincetheColdWar.

Forthisreason,saidtheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies'HeatherConley,aformerUSstatedepartmentofficial,therelationship
betweentheUSandNordiccountries"hasbeentakentoanewlevel".

ThemessagefromPresidentVladimirPutinisdark.

RussianaircraftflewovertheBalticSealastmonth,zoomingtowardsaUSship.RussiansubmarinesmaybelurkingoffinthewatersnearSweden
andFinland.

LastyearaRussianambassadorsaidthatifDanishleaderssteppedoutofline-byjoiningNato'smissiledefencesystem,forexample,theRussians
wouldfirenuclearmissilesattheirships.

GeorgetownUniversity'sAngelaStentsaidUSofficialstakeRussians'rhetoricseriously

Nordicleadersworrymostabouttheirneighbours,Estonia,LatviaandLithuania.ThesethreecountriesarelocatedacrosstheBalticSeafrom
Sweden-andareclosetoRussia.

Theycouldbeindanger.Itwasn'tthatlongagothatPutinreclaimedCrimea,sayingthatitwaspartofRussia.SomeanalystsintheBalticsand
EasternEuropefearhecouldtrythesamethingwithEstonia,LatviaorLithuania.

Putinhaschangedthedynamicsoftheregion-andispartlywhyWhiteHouseofficialshaveorganisedtheNordicsummit.

"Youcan'tassumeit'sjustrhetoric,"saidGeorgetownUniversity'sAngelaStent,whowritesaboutUS-Russiarelations.ShesaidWhiteHouse
officialsaretakingtheRussianstatementsseriously.

Administrationofficialssaidthatthesummitwasconvenedasawayto"deepenUS-Nordiccooperation".Theyalsosaiditshowstheircommitment
tothesecurityoftheNordicregion.

AmbassadorLarsGertLoseofDenmarkdescribedan"unpredictable"Russia

AtthesummitUSofficialswilltalktotheirNordiccounterpartsaboutdealingwithan"unpredictable"Russia,asLosesaid,diplomatically.

UniversityofColorado'sBenjaminTeitelbaum,theauthorofabookabouttheNordicnations,saidofficialshavebeensurprisedatPutin's
aggression.

Teitelbaumsaid:"Thisisatraumaticthing."

Sotraumatic,infact,thatsomeSwedesarenowtalkingaboutjoiningNato.SwedenisapartnerofNato,butit'snotofficiallyamember.

Overtheyears,Swedeshavebecomemoreopentotheideaofjoiningthealliance.In1994only15%ofSwedeswantedtobecomeNato
members,accordingtoSOMInstitute,anindependentorganisationattheUniversityofGothenburg.

Lastyear,accordingtoresearcherKarlYden,nearly40%ofSwedessupportedtheprospectofmembership.

They'reinterested-butatthispointnothingwillchange.

OfficialsintheSwedishgovernment,acoalitionofleft-leaningparties,havenoplanstoapplyforNatomembership,saidAmbassadorBjrnLyrvall.

HespokewithmeattheSwedishembassy,locatedinabuildingnearthePotomacRiver.Hiscolleague,MonicaEnqvist,offeredmecoffeeanda
plateofhavreflarn(oatcrisps).

AtelevisionsetwasturnedtoMSNBC,muted.TheTVisanchoredonawallnearanIvanAguelipaintingofafieldandblue-greysky.
"It'scontemplative,"saidLyrvall,whohassandy-colouredhairthatfallsoverhisforehead.AshetalkedaboutRussia,helookedoutsideattherain.

"Swedishweather,"saidEnqvist,later.

AmbassadorBjrnLyrvallsaidthatsomeSwedesareconsideringNatomembership

AsenioradministrationofficialsaidheplannedtoreassurehisNordiccounterpartsatthesummitabouttheirsecurityandsaidhe'ddeliveranupbeat
message:"Yes,theUSstandsbyitscommitmenttoyoursecurity."

TheofficialremindedmeofthereassuringremarksthatthepresidenthadmadeyearsagointheBalticregion.

"We'llbehereforEstonia.WewillbehereforLatvia.WewillbehereforLithuania,"ObamasaidinTallinn,Estonia,inSeptember2014."Youlost
yourindependenceoncebefore.WithNato,youwillneverloseitagain."

It'sanoblesentiment-butperhapsnotrealistic.AnewstudybyresearchersatRandCorporation,aUSthink-tank,showedthatifRussiaattacked
theBaltics,Natowouldn'tbeabletodefendthem.

Administrationofficialssaidthey'vebeenbeefingupsecurityintheregionandareworkingwithallies-andthatthesummitispartoftheireffort.

LateonFridaymorning,ObamaandtheNordicleaderswillspeakbrieflywithreporters.They'llissueadeclarationwith"substantiallanguage",said
Lyrvall,aboutRussia.

Intheeveningthey'llhavedinneronthesouthlawn-"agrandevent",hesaid.Obamawillmakeatoast,andsowillleadersofDenmarkand
Iceland.

Lyrvallmaybeanintrospective-andbrooding-Swede.Buthesaidthathepaysnoattentiontounluckysigns,adding:"Ithinkwehaveastrong
enoughrelationshiptowithstandthe13thofMay."

Follow@Tara_MckelveyonTwitter.

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:51AM
Subject:Russiadopingcover-upclaims'nonsenseandslanderous'-BBCSport[ED:Comeswithashortobservation][Sidenote:Thefolkswho
competedagainstLegkovknowbetter]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/sport/winter-sports/36284161

Russiadopingcover-upclaims'nonsenseandslanderous'

Russiawon13goldmedalsattheSochiWinterOlympicsin2014-includingthosewonbyZubkov(left)andLegkov

TwoRussianathletesnamedindopingallegationsbythenation'sformeranti-dopingchiefhaverejectedtheclaimsas"nonsenseand
slanderous".

InaNewYorkTimesreport,DrGrigoryRodchenkovallegesdozensofathletes,includingatleast15medallistsatthe2014WinterOlympics,
werepartofanextensivestate-rundopingprogramme.

SkierAlexanderLegkovandbobsledderAlexanderZubkovinsisttheyareclean.

TheInternationalOlympicCommitteesaidtheclaimsmustbeinvestigated.
ButLegkov,whowongoldandsilvermedalsinSochi,saidlegalaction"needed"tobetakenovertheallegations.

"Itiscompleterubbishandweneedtostopit,"hesaid.

"Iperformedhonestly.MyOlympicvictorywasnotaccidental."

Zubkov,whowontwogoldmedalsinSochi,added:"ItisallnonsenseandslanderdirectedatRussiansportsmenwhotookpartintheOlympics.It
isunacceptable."

Rodchenkovdescribedamassive,tightlyorganiseddopingoperationinvolvingRussia'ssecurityserviceandthesportsministry.

SportsMinisterVitalyMutkohascondemnedtheallegationsas"acontinuationoftheinformationattackonRussiansport".

KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovaddedtheywere"unsubstantiated"andthe"slanderofadefector".

FormerRussiananti-dopingagencyworkerVitalyStepanovhadalsoclaimedontheCBSnetwork's60Minutesprogrammethatundercover
Russianintelligenceagentsposedasanti-dopingstafftocoverupcheatingatSochi.

TheBBCandtheWorldAnti-DopingAgency(Wada)havebeenunabletoindependentlyverifytheallegationsmadeinthe
programme.[ED:DidanyoneevernoticethatalloftheRU'BreakingBad'storiesarealwaysqualifiedas'alleged'?Didanyoneever
thesamecourtesyisnotextendedtoUA???]

RussianathleteshavealreadybeenbannedfrominternationalcompetitionbytheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF),
thesport'sworldgoverningbody,afteraWadacommissionreportalleged"state-sponsored"dopinginthecountry.

RodchenkovlefthispostafterthereportwaspublishedinNovember2015.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at12:11PM
Subject:Putin'sSyndicateAndTheLaw[ED:Heckofaread!!]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

PanamaPapersarecreatingproblemsfortheWorld'sMostSuccessfulCriminal.Wheredidthe$1.3[Trillion]endup?Inhowmanymajorcorporations
(includingUS/EU)isthatstashinvested?IsPutin'sFinancialEmpiretoobigtobetoppled,toobigtofail?

http://www.rferl.org/content/putins-syndicate-and-the-law/27732468.html

ThePowerVertical

Putin'sSyndicateAndTheLaw
Print

Comment(2)

Share:
WiththebehaviorofVladimirPutin'sRussiaoftenresemblingthatofaninternationalcrimesyndicate,theKremlin'sstridentresponsetoWesterncountriesenforcingtheirlawsishardlysurprising.(filephoto)

ByBrianWhitmore

May13,2016

I fyou'venationalizedandweaponizedyourmafia,it'sonlynaturaltoviewaninvestigationintoorganizedcrimeasaggression.

Ityouusecorruptionasatoolofstatecraft,you'llprobablyseeeffortstofostergreatertransparencyashostile.

Ifassassinations,embezzlement,moneylaundering,andarmstraffickingarepartofyourforeignpolicytoolkit,itisnotsurprising
thatyouthinkprosecutingsuchthingsisanactofwar.

AleksandrBastrykincertainlythinksitis.

InawidelydiscussedarticleinKommersantVlastlastmonth,theRussianInvestigativeCommitteechiefsaid"internationallaw
andthejusticebasedonit,haveincreasinglybecometoolsofwar"againstMoscow.

AndforonceIactuallyagreewithBastrykin--withjustasmalltweak.Iwouldreplacetheword"war"with"counterinsurgency."

Because,withtheKremlinactivelyusingcorruption,organizedcrime,moneylaundering,andcyberattackstoundermineand
weakenWesterninstitutions,thebestweaponagainstthisinsidiousandstealthyinsurgencyisthedirectandopenapplicationof
theruleoflaw.

"AneffectiveWesternresponsetoRussia'smulti-dimensionalchallengerequiresawholeofgovernmentapproach,"veteran
Kremlin-watcherJamesSherrofChathamHousewroterecently.

"Unlessnon-defensearmsofgovernment(judicial,financial,regulatory)understandthedefenseandsecurityimplicationsoftheir
responsibilities,theywillnotbefitforpurpose."

Inotherwords,corruptionandtransnationalcrimearenationalsecurityissuesofthehighestmagnitude,andWestern
governmentsarestartingtotreatthemassuch.

"Inan'asymmetric'strugglewiththeUnitedStates,PutinandRussiahavetobeinnovative,catchtheWestoffguard,andfight
dirty,"FionaHill,aseniorfellowattheBrookingsInstitutionandco-authorofthebookMr.Putin:OperativeintheKremlin,wrote
recently.

PartoffightingdirtymeanstheKremlin'sisusingcorruptbusinessdealsandorganizedcrimetocompromiseofficialsand
businesselites,weakenresolve,andestablishTrojanHorsesinWesterncountries.

AndWesterngovernmentsarebecomingincreasingvigilantaboutcounteringthegeopoliticalthreatstemmingfromPutin's
weaponizationofglobalization.

TheEuropeanUnionhasbecomemoreassertiveinenforcingitsThirdEnergyPackageandpreventingGazpromfromflouting
antimonopolylaws.

HotRussianmoneyinEurope'sbanksandpropertymarketsisdrawingmorescrutiny.

OutrageovertherevelationsinthePanamaPapersareforcinggovernmentstocrackdownonoffshorehavens.

AndWesternlawenforcementhasmovedtopullthemaskoffMoscow'smorebrazenstate-sponsoredcriminalactivity.

TheconclusionofaBritishinvestigationbackinFebruarythatKremlinagentsassassinatedRussiandefectorAleksandr
LitvinenkowitharareradioactiveisotopeintheheartofLondonin2006--andthatVladimirPutinprobablygavethegreenlight--
isoneexample.

SpanishJudgeJosedelaMataissuinginternationalarrestwarrantsforadozenRussians--includingcurrentandformerofficials
--forlinkstoorganizedcrimeearlierthismonthisanother.

Alsothismonth,PortuguesepolicebrokeupaRussianorganizedcrimenetworkthathadreportedlyboughtcontrolofsoccer
clubsandusedthemtolaunderblackcash.

WiththebehaviorofVladimirPutin'sRussiaoftenresemblingthatofaninternationalcrimesyndicate,itonlystandstoreason
thattheKremlinwouldgetabsolutelyhystericalwheneverWesterncountriesexercisetheirsovereignrighttoenforcetheirown
lawsagainstRussianperpetrators.

"Thiseliteregardedglobalizationasabuffet--thattheycanenjoyalltheopportunitiesofbeingEuropeanswhileatthesametime
maintainingtheircapacitytostealwithimpunitybackwithinRussia,"NewYorkUniversity'sMarkGaleotti,anexpertonRussian
organizedcrime,toldTheMoscowTimes.

"Nowtheyarefindingthatthisisbecomingharderandharder."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at9:05AM
Subject:Eurovision2016:Russia'sSergeyLazarevfavouritetowin-BBCNews[ED:PB'sUseoftheWord"Pimp"toDescribeBBC'sWorkOn
BehalfofOl'Sergein'Spoton'.....ReadandWeep][AGoodReminderoftheKindofWondrousWorkBBCDidWithItsGirkin-Strelkov
InterviewsinDonbasduringtheEarlyStagesoftheRU-UAWar]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

BBCdoeswhatitcantopimpforPutin'sLondongradMultimillionDollar'SlickasSpit'Eurovisioncandidate.

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-36284814

Eurovision2016:Russia'sSergeyLazarevfavouritetowin
14May2016

FromthesectionEntertainment&Arts
ImagecopyrightGETTYIMAGESImagecaptionSergeyLazarev,whohailsfromSochi,isawell-knownsingerinRussia

Russiaisthefavouritetowinthisyear'sEurovisionSongContest,whichistakingplaceinStockholm.

Russia'sSergeyLazarev,ahugepopstarinthecountry,iswidelytippedtowinwithhistechnoballad,YouAreTheOnlyOne.

Australia,France,SwedenandUkrainearealsohotlytippedforsuccessinthecompetition.
TherunningorderforthecontestwasunveiledonFriday,withtheUK'sJoeandJakeperformingsecondlast.
Theduo,bothofwhomareformercontestantsofTheVoiceUK,werechosentorepresentBritaininapublicvoteinFebruary.
Followourlivecoverageofthecontest.

ImagecopyrightGETTYIMAGESImagecaptionJoeandJakewillrepresenttheUKinSaturdaynight'scontest

JoeandJakequalifiedforthefinalautomaticallyastheUKisoneofthebiggestfinancialcontributorstoEurovision,sothepairdidnothaveto
performatthesemi-final.

Eurovision2016:Reporter'sdiary
WhatdofansloveaboutEurovision?

WhyisRussiasodesperatetowinEurovision?

WhowastheUK'sfirstEurovisionsinger?

Ukrainiansinger's'familystory'

MichaelBall:'MyadviceforJoeandJake'

OtherfinalistsincludeUkraine-whoseentrantJamalaisthefirsteverCrimeanTatartoperformatthecontest.

Herpoliticallychargedsong1944isnottypicalEurovisionfare-itslyricsincludereferencestoStalin,Crimea,andclaimsofethniccleansing.

ThesonghasangeredRussia,whichannexedCrimeafromUkrainein2014,astensionbetweenthetwocountriesgrew.
IrelandwasknockedoutofthecontestafterformerWestlifesingerNickyByrnefailedtoqualifyinThursday'ssemi-final.

IthasbeenabadyearforScandinavianentries.

DenmarkandNorwaywereknockedoutinthesemi-finals,whichweredecidedbasedonacombinationofpublicandjuryvoting.Icelandand
Finlandalsofailedtomakeitthrough.

However,asreigningwinners,Swedenhasautomaticallyadvancedtothegrandfinal.

TheCzechRepublichasalsomadeittothefinal-thefirsttimeithasqualifiedsincethesemi-finalsystemwasintroducedin2004.

ImagecopyrightAFP/GETTYImagecaptionFormerWestlifestarNickyByrnefailedtoqualifyinThursday'ssemi-final

AustralianXFactorwinnerDamiIm,whowasmentoredbypopstarDanniiMinogue,wasvotedthroughtothefinalwithhersongSoundOf
Silence.

DespitebeingontheothersideoftheworldfromEurope,AustraliawasinvitedtojoinEurovisionforits60thanniversaryin2015,when
contestantGuySebastianfinishedinfifthplace.

Russiafavourites
AvictoryforsingerSergeyLazarevwouldmeanRussiawouldhostthecontestnextyearforthesecondtime-thecountryfirstwonin2008.

Russiaisknownforitscontroversiallawsregardinghomosexuality,makingitanunusualhostforaneventwithastrongLGBTfollowing.
LazarevtoldtheBBCtheLGBTcommunitywillbewelcomedtohiscountryifhewinsthecontest.

"GaylifeexistsinRussia,hesaid."Thereismoretalkandrumoursaboutproblemsthanexist.Ijustwantyoutocomeandseeeverything
yourself."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at10:43AM
Subject:Kitsch,glitzandpoliticsasRussiaslatedtowinEurovision|GlobalPost
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Oneofthekeysto"hybridwarfare"isflexibility.Here,Putin'sImageDeceptifiersgethimtoswallowhishomophobiaastheyhustletopimpRussia'sMultimillion
DollarSlickAsSpitCandidateintheEuroVisioncompetition.

TocounterUS/EUdisgustwithPutin'sNeo-NaziresurgenceinRussia,they'repandering(atleasttemporarily)totheLGBTcommunity.IntheUS,the
competitionisbeingcarriedbytheLogoChannel,whichisaimedatLGBTclients.Logo'slargestmarketisWestHollywood,whichalsojusthappenstobe
hometothelargestRussiancommunityintheUS(aswellasofLenin'sBigGiantHeadstatue).

What'snextforRussia?AGayPrideParadeinRedSquare?Cantheworld'slargestsynagogueinMoscowbefarbehind?Don'tkidyourself.Onestepback
todayfortwostepsforwardtomorrow.It'sallpartofthegame.

http://www.globalpost.com/article/6769303/2016/05/13/kitsch-glitz-and-politics-russia-slated-win-eurovision

NEXTSECTION......."IFTHERIGHTONEWON'TGETYA,THENTHELEFTONEWILL.....'[FromanOldTennesseeErnie
Fordsong]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at10:50AM
Subject:Fwd:AntiUkrainian"Workshop"inNewYork[OntheUSPOPULIST(OCC-WS)LEFT.....fearofafascist(read:Neo-Nazi)regimeina
countrythathasaprimeministerofJewishfaith.....toorichforwords]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Walter,haveyouheardaboutthis?

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:"BohdanFutala"<bfutala@verizon.net>

Date:May13,20169:10:36PMPDT

To:<bbesaha@yahoo.com>,"PeterBorisov"<apb.uke@earthlink.com>,"AndyFedynsky"<fedynsky@sbcglobal.net>,"LeoIwaskiw"
<liwaskiw@provassn.com>,<hanya@brama.com>,"MyronMelnyk"<mmelnyk@yahoo.com>,<ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu>,"Oryssia
Prokopovitch"<oryssia@hotmail.com>,"MyroslavaRozdolska"<myroslavar@hotmail.com>,<Unis.sawkiw@comcast.net>

Subject:AntiUkrainian"Workshop"inNewYork

NoticedthiseventlistedinTheUkrainianWeeklyatCCNYonSaturday5/21.ThepanelconsistsexclusivelyofproPutindiscipleswhoundoubtedlywillpresenta
convolutedanti-Ukrainiannarrative.ItwouldseemtobeincumbentuponMaidansupportersintheNYCareatoconfrontthem.Pleaseforwardthisinformation.

http://www.leftforum.org/content/situation-ukraine

Session1Room1.113Sat10:00am-11:50am

PanelProposal/WorkshopInformation
Panel/WorkshopYear:

2016

Abstract:

FightingcontinuesinUkrainewithrebelsinchargeoftheEasternareasofthecountryanddeclaringtheirindependencefromKiev.Strugglealsocontinuesin
otherpartsofthecountryagainstthedraftandtherightwinggovernment.OnMay2,wereachedthe2yearanniversaryofthefascistattackon
demonstratorattheOdessaHouseofTradeUnions,where46peoplewerekilled.AleaderoftheprogressivemovementfromOdessawilljointhispanel

SponsoringJournal:

UnitedNationalAntiwarCoalition(UNAC)

Panel/WorkshopTopics:

Europe

MorePanel/WorkshopInformation

DiversityofPersepctives:

ThispanelwillfeaturealeaderoftheprogressivemovementfromOdessawhoopposetherightwinggovernementinKiev.Shewillbejoinedbyother
speakerstodiscussthesituationwiththerebelheldareasofthecountryandthecontinuingstruggleinUkraine.

Participants

Chair/Facilitator:

Name:PhilWilayto ViewDetails

Speakers/Co-Facilitators:

Name:IrinaKovel ViewDetails

Name:GregButterfield ViewDetails

Name:BruceGagnon ViewDetails

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BFD
Date:2016-05-149:35GMT-04:00
Subject:[ONTHEPOPULISTRIGHTINTHEUS.........TheDon-VladBromanceContinues]
To:

DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirPutin
WarmwordsandpushtoimprovetieswithMoscowarentsharedbyBarackObama,Republicanpresidentialrivals
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattendsameetingwithmembersoftheLegislativeCouncilinSt.Petersburglastmonth.PHOTO:ALEXEIDRUZHININ/ASSOCIATEDPRESS

ByDamianPalettaTheWallStreetJournal

UpdatedMay13,20164:57p.m.ET

DonaldTrumpmadeanunusualpublicoverturetoRussianPresidentVladimirPutininJune2013,tryingtoginuppublicityforaneventhe
wasco-hostingthatyear.

DoyouthinkPutinwillbegoingtoTheMissUniversePageantinNovemberinMoscowifso,willhebecomemynewbestfriend?thereal
estatemagnatetweeted.

Thatappealcamelessthan24hoursafterPresidentBarackObamaandMr.Putinheldatense,unproductivemeetingatasummitofworld
leadersinNorthernIreland,astheysparredoverhowtode-escalatetheconflictinSyria.Ourpositionsdonotfullycoincide,Mr.Putinsaid
terselyafterward.

Mr.Trump,thepresumptiveGOPpresidentialnominee,hasproposedredrawingawiderangeofU.S.policies,includingtaxandimmigration
rules,tradeagreementsandengagementintheMiddleEast.Butinnoareahashebeenmorepersistentandperhapsmoreconsistent
thanhiscalltoimproverelationswithMr.Putin,anauthoritarianfigureoftenatoddswiththeU.S.

Mr.TrumpsviewsonMr.PutinseparatehimnotjustfromMr.ObamabutfromhisformerGOPrivals,andfromconservativesaswellas
liberals.Sen.MarcoRubio(R.,Fla.)calledMr.Putinagangsterandathug,andDemocraticfront-funnerHillaryClintonhastermedhima
bully,whileMr.Trumpcallshimverybrightandastrongleader.

ItsunclearwhetherMessrs.TrumpandPutinhavespokensincethecampaignbegan.Theyhaveexchangedpleasantriesinpublic
statements,butremaincoyaboutwhethertheyhavehadprivatediscussions.(SeeManafortarticle.TheQuietAmericanB/F]

Ibelieveaneasingoftensions,andimprovedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthonlyispossible,absolutelypossible,Mr.
Trumpsaidinaforeign-policyspeechatWashingtonsMayflowerHotelinApril.SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofind
out.

Afewminutesbeforehemadethoseremarks,Mr.TrumpmetataVIPreceptionwithRussiasambassadortotheU.S.,SergeyIvanovich
Kislyak.Mr.TrumpwarmlygreetedMr.Kislyakandthreeotherforeignambassadorswhocametothereception.

TheoriginofMr.TrumpsaffectionforRussiaisunclear.HetraveledtoMoscowinthe1990sinsearchofreal-estatedeals,buthiscompany
isntbelievedtohavepropertiesthere.HesaidlastweekthathisexperiencewithRussianofficialsincludedhostingthe2013MissUniverse
event.HedrewattentionforfloatingtheideaofaTrumpTowerinMoscow,butthestatusofthatprojectisalsounclear.

Mr.TrumpsprimarydiplomaticgoalregardingRussiaappearstobetoletMr.PutindealwithproblemsinSyriaandelsewhereinthe
Mideast,allowingtheU.S.todisengage.

OneproposalthathasgarneredpositiveRussianattentionisMr.TrumpssuggestionthattheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationfocuson
combatingterrorisminsteadofdeterringRussianaggression.ThatalarmsofficialsinUkraineandtheBaltics,formerSovietstatesthatfear
theycouldbecomeMr.PutinsnexttargetsfollowingRussiasannexationofUkrainianregionofCrimeainearly2014.

TheKremlinhassignaleditspleasedwithMr.Trumpssuccessandmessage.Mr.Trumpsayshewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,
tocloseranddeeperrelationswithRussiahowcanwenotwelcomethat?Mr.PutinsaidinDecember.Ofcourse,wewelcomeit.

ButMr.TrumpsrisehasunsettledanumberofveteranU.S.diplomats.

Theresamythologyaboutforeignpolicythatitsjustlikedeal-makinginthebusinessworld,andifyoudontlikethedeal,youcanjustwalk
away,saidMichaelMcFaul,acriticofMr.TrumpandformerU.S.ambassadortoRussiaunderMr.Obama.Inforeignpolicy,youcantwalk
away.Itcancomebacktobiteyou.Itcancreatevacuums.

U.S.relationswithMoscowhavedeterioratedinrecentyears,especiallysincetheannexationofCrimea.WashingtonhaschafedatRussias
backingforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad,andWesterndiplomatsbelieveMr.PutinislookingforwaystoaggressivelyassertRussias
regionalandglobalinfluence,withlittlerespectforhumanrights.

Atthesametime,WesternleadershavesoughtwaystoworkwithMoscowwheretheycan,inareasfromthenucleardealwithIrantothecivil
warinSyria.

Mr.TrumpisnotthefirstfiguretospeakofimprovingrelationswithRussiaandMr.Putin.Thelasttwopresidentshavevoicedsimilaraims,
onlytoseetheireffortsfounderinthefaceofgeopoliticalevents.

In2001,then-PresidentGeorgeW.BushsaidafterameetingwithMr.PutinthatIwasabletogetasenseofhissoul,aremarkthatwas
widelyderided,especiallyafterMr.PutintookaggressiveactionslikemovingintoneighboringGeorgiain2008.

Mr.ObamasteamalsospokeofresettingrelationswithRussia,buthe,too,hasseenrelationsdeteriorate,tothepointthatNATOhas
suspendedmuchofitsnascentcooperationwithRussia.

Althoughmanyconservativeforeign-policyexpertshavebalkedatMr.TrumpsoverturestoRussia,someagreethatitmaybetimetorethink
U.S.-Russiarelations.

WhatwehavenowinthedynamicsbetweenPutinandObamaisveryunhelpful,saidDimitriSimes,presidentoftheCenterfortheNational
Interest,whichhostedMr.Trumpsforeign-policyspeech.ObamaclearlydoesnottrustPutin,doesnotlikePutin,anddoesnthideit.Ithink
thatPutindoesntlikeObama,isnotafraidofObama,anddoesntparticularlyrespectObama.

Perhapsillustratingthat,Mr.PutinrejectedaninvitationfromMr.ObamatoattendasummitonnuclearweaponsinApril,sayingtheU.S.
hadntproperlyacknowledgedRussiasstatusasaworldpower.

Mr.TrumpseizedonthetensionafterRussianwarplanesandamilitaryhelicopterlastmonthbuzzedaU.S.NavyDestroyerintheBalticSea.

Itsjustnorespectforourpresidentorourcountry,andheistweakingus,Mr.TrumpsaidofMr.PutinonFoxNews.Ifitwereme,Iwilltell
you,IwouldcallhimandIwouldsay,Dontdoit.Juststopit.Dontdoit.

Headded,Andtheyregoingtorespectus,andIvehadasortofsemi-nicerelationshipwithPutinsaidverynicethingsaboutme.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/14/201604:54:31PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'USMissileBaseThreatNordicsTell
Subject:
OBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3...
Attachments: DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirPutin.docx

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,May14,20164:36PM
Subject:Fwd:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'USMissileBaseThreat
NordicsTellOBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at7:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'
USMissileBaseThreatNordicsTellOBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3Tgo!!]BBC
ToutsRUActinEuro-VisionKitsch,glitzandpoliticsasRussiaslatedtowinEurovision......PLUS"TALESFROMTHEDARKSIDE:LEFT&RIGHT"
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:29AM
Subject:PutinsaysRussiawill'neutralisethreats'afterUSopensmissilebase-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,Nadia<ronnadialiteplo@hotmail.com>,"R.Shuhan"<roma.shuhan@yahoo.com>,RoxyWacyk
<roxy.wacyk@gmail.com>,GloriaHorbaty<gphorbaty@hotmail.com>,mmshevchuk@aol.com,MariaWalchuk<mlwalchuk@gmail.com>,Mariya
Andriyovych<mariyand5@gmail.com>,MotriaM<motryasua@earthlink.net>,MaryMulyk<marusiadm@yahoo.com>,IJadlicky<ijadlicky@verizon.net>,
NatalieSonetysky<nataliapalidwor@yahoo.com>,AlexandraJuzeniw<lesiajuz@verizon.net>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36289155

PutinsaysRussiawill'neutralisethreats'afterUSopensmissile
base

ReutersVladimirPutinwarnedthat
Russiawouldbeforcedto"neutralise"perceivedthreats.
PresidentVladimirPutinhasescalatedRussiancriticismofanewUSmissiledefencestationinRomania,sayinghiscountrywill
"neutraliseemergingthreats".

HeargueditwasaimedatweakeningRussia'snuclearpowerandvowedtoincreaseRussiandefencespending.

USPresidentBarackObamavoicedconcernaboutRussia's"growingaggressivemilitarypresence".

NatosaysthebaseisaimedatpotentialthreatsfromtheMiddleEast.

TheUSonThursdayactivatedtheestimated$800m(550m700m)missileshieldinDeveselu,southernRomania.

NatoSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergandotherseniorofficialsfromthemilitaryallianceattendedtheopeningceremony,ataformerRomanian
airbase.

OnFriday,anotherphaseoftheprojectwaslaunchedinPolandwithagroundbreakingceremonyatRedzikowo,neartheBalticSea.Aegismissiles
aretobecomeoperationaltherein2018.

Warofwords
SpeakingtoRussianofficialsinMoscow,MrPutinsaid:"Thisisnotadefencesystem.ThisispartofaUSnuclearstrategicpotentialbroughtontoa
periphery.

APTheDeveselubasefeaturesaradarbuilding

"Inthiscase,EasternEuropeissuchaperiphery.Thosepeopletakingsuchdecisionsmustknowthatuntilnowtheyhavelivedcalm,fairlywell-off
andinsafety.

"Now,astheseelementsofballisticmissiledefencearedeployed,weareforcedtothinkhowtoneutralisetheemergingthreatstotheRussian
Federation."

SpeakinglateratameetingofleadersofSweden,Denmark,Finland,NorwayandIcelandattheWhiteHouse,MrObamasaid:"Weareunitedin
ourconcernaboutRussia'sgrowingaggressivemilitarypresenceandpostureintheBaltic-Nordicregion."

"WewillbemaintainingongoingdialogueandseekcooperationwithRussia,butwealsowanttomakesurethatwearepreparedandstrong,and
wewanttoencourageRussiatokeepitsmilitaryactivitiesinfullcompliancewithinternationalobligations,"hesaid.

TheRomaniansitehostsradarandSM-3missileinterceptors,andwillbeintegratedintoNato'smissileshieldwhentheblocmeetsthissummer.

RelationsbetweentheWestandRussiahavedeterioratedsinceMoscow'sannexationofUkraine'ssouthernCrimeapeninsulain2014afteran
internationallyunrecognisedreferendumonself-determination.

AerialencountersbetweenRussiaandtheUSanditsallieshaveescalatedsignificantly,intheformofviolationsofnationalairspace,narrowly
avoidedmid-aircollisionsandcloseencountersatseaandsimulatedattackruns.

Howdoesthemissileshieldwork?

Thedefencesystemallowson-shoresitesandwarshipstoshootdownenemyballisticmissileswhiletheyarestillinspace.

Theinterceptormissilesarefiredtohitmissilesbeforetheyre-entertheatmosphere,stoppingthemwellbeforethereisanydangerofcausingany
damage.

AnewpieceinNato'smissiledefencejigsaw

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:32AM
Subject:FacingRussianthreat,Nordicleaderstalktactics-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36263331

FacingRussianthreat,Nordicleaderstalktactics
TheleadersoffiveNordiccountriesaremeetingPresidentBarackObamaforasummitattheWhiteHouse.They'lltalkaboutthe
environment,refugees-andthepossibilityofafutureconflictwithRussia.

PresidentObamaishostingtheWhiteHouse'sfirst-everUS-NordicLeadersSummitonanunluckyday,Fridaythe13th.ButNordicofficialssaid
thatthey'renotsuperstitious.

TheagendaincludesdiscussionsabouttherefugeecrisisandNordiccontributionstothefightagainsttheIslamicStategroup.Swedishofficialsare
facedwithaninfluxofa"very,veryhigh"numberofrefugees,saidAmbassadorBjrnLyrvall.

MeanwhileDenmark,asLarsGertLose,theirambassadortotheUS,toldme,issending60specialforcestoIraqandSyria.

GettyImagesPresidentPutin,showninFinlandin2013,hasunnervedsomepeopleinNordiccountries

OnFridayevening,theNordicofficialswillattendastatedinnerattheWhiteHouse.

Statedinnersarerelativelyrare.SincemovingintotheWhiteHouse,theObamashavehostedlessthanadozen-fortheleadersofIndia,China,the
UKandahandfulofothercountries.

TheNordicguestsseemalittlesurprisedbytheattention.

Buttheyalsoknow-inavisceralway-whythey'vebecomeimportanttoAmericans.RussiansarenowactingoutinnorthernEuropeinawaythat
hasn'tbeenseensincetheColdWar.

Forthisreason,saidtheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies'HeatherConley,aformerUSstatedepartmentofficial,therelationship
betweentheUSandNordiccountries"hasbeentakentoanewlevel".

ThemessagefromPresidentVladimirPutinisdark.

RussianaircraftflewovertheBalticSealastmonth,zoomingtowardsaUSship.RussiansubmarinesmaybelurkingoffinthewatersnearSweden
andFinland.

LastyearaRussianambassadorsaidthatifDanishleaderssteppedoutofline-byjoiningNato'smissiledefencesystem,forexample,theRussians
wouldfirenuclearmissilesattheirships.

GeorgetownUniversity'sAngelaStentsaidUSofficialstakeRussians'rhetoricseriously

Nordicleadersworrymostabouttheirneighbours,Estonia,LatviaandLithuania.ThesethreecountriesarelocatedacrosstheBalticSeafrom
Sweden-andareclosetoRussia.

Theycouldbeindanger.Itwasn'tthatlongagothatPutinreclaimedCrimea,sayingthatitwaspartofRussia.SomeanalystsintheBalticsand
EasternEuropefearhecouldtrythesamethingwithEstonia,LatviaorLithuania.

Putinhaschangedthedynamicsoftheregion-andispartlywhyWhiteHouseofficialshaveorganisedtheNordicsummit.

"Youcan'tassumeit'sjustrhetoric,"saidGeorgetownUniversity'sAngelaStent,whowritesaboutUS-Russiarelations.ShesaidWhiteHouse
officialsaretakingtheRussianstatementsseriously.

Administrationofficialssaidthatthesummitwasconvenedasawayto"deepenUS-Nordiccooperation".Theyalsosaiditshowstheircommitment
tothesecurityoftheNordicregion.

AmbassadorLarsGertLoseofDenmarkdescribedan"unpredictable"Russia

AtthesummitUSofficialswilltalktotheirNordiccounterpartsaboutdealingwithan"unpredictable"Russia,asLosesaid,diplomatically.

UniversityofColorado'sBenjaminTeitelbaum,theauthorofabookabouttheNordicnations,saidofficialshavebeensurprisedatPutin's
aggression.

Teitelbaumsaid:"Thisisatraumaticthing."

Sotraumatic,infact,thatsomeSwedesarenowtalkingaboutjoiningNato.SwedenisapartnerofNato,butit'snotofficiallyamember.

Overtheyears,Swedeshavebecomemoreopentotheideaofjoiningthealliance.In1994only15%ofSwedeswantedtobecomeNato
members,accordingtoSOMInstitute,anindependentorganisationattheUniversityofGothenburg.

Lastyear,accordingtoresearcherKarlYden,nearly40%ofSwedessupportedtheprospectofmembership.

They'reinterested-butatthispointnothingwillchange.

OfficialsintheSwedishgovernment,acoalitionofleft-leaningparties,havenoplanstoapplyforNatomembership,saidAmbassadorBjrnLyrvall.

HespokewithmeattheSwedishembassy,locatedinabuildingnearthePotomacRiver.Hiscolleague,MonicaEnqvist,offeredmecoffeeanda
plateofhavreflarn(oatcrisps).

AtelevisionsetwasturnedtoMSNBC,muted.TheTVisanchoredonawallnearanIvanAguelipaintingofafieldandblue-greysky.
"It'scontemplative,"saidLyrvall,whohassandy-colouredhairthatfallsoverhisforehead.AshetalkedaboutRussia,helookedoutsideattherain.

"Swedishweather,"saidEnqvist,later.

AmbassadorBjrnLyrvallsaidthatsomeSwedesareconsideringNatomembership

AsenioradministrationofficialsaidheplannedtoreassurehisNordiccounterpartsatthesummitabouttheirsecurityandsaidhe'ddeliveranupbeat
message:"Yes,theUSstandsbyitscommitmenttoyoursecurity."

TheofficialremindedmeofthereassuringremarksthatthepresidenthadmadeyearsagointheBalticregion.

"We'llbehereforEstonia.WewillbehereforLatvia.WewillbehereforLithuania,"ObamasaidinTallinn,Estonia,inSeptember2014."Youlost
yourindependenceoncebefore.WithNato,youwillneverloseitagain."

It'sanoblesentiment-butperhapsnotrealistic.AnewstudybyresearchersatRandCorporation,aUSthink-tank,showedthatifRussiaattacked
theBaltics,Natowouldn'tbeabletodefendthem.

Administrationofficialssaidthey'vebeenbeefingupsecurityintheregionandareworkingwithallies-andthatthesummitispartoftheireffort.

LateonFridaymorning,ObamaandtheNordicleaderswillspeakbrieflywithreporters.They'llissueadeclarationwith"substantiallanguage",said
Lyrvall,aboutRussia.

Intheeveningthey'llhavedinneronthesouthlawn-"agrandevent",hesaid.Obamawillmakeatoast,andsowillleadersofDenmarkand
Iceland.

Lyrvallmaybeanintrospective-andbrooding-Swede.Buthesaidthathepaysnoattentiontounluckysigns,adding:"Ithinkwehaveastrong
enoughrelationshiptowithstandthe13thofMay."

Follow@Tara_MckelveyonTwitter.

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:51AM
Subject:Russiadopingcover-upclaims'nonsenseandslanderous'-BBCSport[ED:Comeswithashortobservation][Sidenote:Thefolkswho
competedagainstLegkovknowbetter]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/sport/winter-sports/36284161

Russiadopingcover-upclaims'nonsenseandslanderous'

Russiawon13goldmedalsattheSochiWinterOlympicsin2014-includingthosewonbyZubkov(left)andLegkov

TwoRussianathletesnamedindopingallegationsbythenation'sformeranti-dopingchiefhaverejectedtheclaimsas"nonsenseand
slanderous".

InaNewYorkTimesreport,DrGrigoryRodchenkovallegesdozensofathletes,includingatleast15medallistsatthe2014WinterOlympics,
werepartofanextensivestate-rundopingprogramme.

SkierAlexanderLegkovandbobsledderAlexanderZubkovinsisttheyareclean.

TheInternationalOlympicCommitteesaidtheclaimsmustbeinvestigated.
ButLegkov,whowongoldandsilvermedalsinSochi,saidlegalaction"needed"tobetakenovertheallegations.

"Itiscompleterubbishandweneedtostopit,"hesaid.

"Iperformedhonestly.MyOlympicvictorywasnotaccidental."

Zubkov,whowontwogoldmedalsinSochi,added:"ItisallnonsenseandslanderdirectedatRussiansportsmenwhotookpartintheOlympics.It
isunacceptable."

Rodchenkovdescribedamassive,tightlyorganiseddopingoperationinvolvingRussia'ssecurityserviceandthesportsministry.

SportsMinisterVitalyMutkohascondemnedtheallegationsas"acontinuationoftheinformationattackonRussiansport".

KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovaddedtheywere"unsubstantiated"andthe"slanderofadefector".

FormerRussiananti-dopingagencyworkerVitalyStepanovhadalsoclaimedontheCBSnetwork's60Minutesprogrammethatundercover
Russianintelligenceagentsposedasanti-dopingstafftocoverupcheatingatSochi.

TheBBCandtheWorldAnti-DopingAgency(Wada)havebeenunabletoindependentlyverifytheallegationsmadeinthe
programme.[ED:DidanyoneevernoticethatalloftheRU'BreakingBad'storiesarealwaysqualifiedas'alleged'?Didanyoneever
thesamecourtesyisnotextendedtoUA???]

RussianathleteshavealreadybeenbannedfrominternationalcompetitionbytheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF),
thesport'sworldgoverningbody,afteraWadacommissionreportalleged"state-sponsored"dopinginthecountry.

RodchenkovlefthispostafterthereportwaspublishedinNovember2015.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at12:11PM
Subject:Putin'sSyndicateAndTheLaw[ED:Heckofaread!!]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

PanamaPapersarecreatingproblemsfortheWorld'sMostSuccessfulCriminal.Wheredidthe$1.3[Trillion]endup?Inhowmanymajorcorporations
(includingUS/EU)isthatstashinvested?IsPutin'sFinancialEmpiretoobigtobetoppled,toobigtofail?

http://www.rferl.org/content/putins-syndicate-and-the-law/27732468.html

ThePowerVertical

Putin'sSyndicateAndTheLaw
Print

Comment(2)

Share:
WiththebehaviorofVladimirPutin'sRussiaoftenresemblingthatofaninternationalcrimesyndicate,theKremlin'sstridentresponsetoWesterncountriesenforcingtheirlawsishardlysurprising.(filephoto)

ByBrianWhitmore

May13,2016

I fyou'venationalizedandweaponizedyourmafia,it'sonlynaturaltoviewaninvestigationintoorganizedcrimeasaggression.

Ityouusecorruptionasatoolofstatecraft,you'llprobablyseeeffortstofostergreatertransparencyashostile.

Ifassassinations,embezzlement,moneylaundering,andarmstraffickingarepartofyourforeignpolicytoolkit,itisnotsurprising
thatyouthinkprosecutingsuchthingsisanactofwar.

AleksandrBastrykincertainlythinksitis.

InawidelydiscussedarticleinKommersantVlastlastmonth,theRussianInvestigativeCommitteechiefsaid"internationallaw
andthejusticebasedonit,haveincreasinglybecometoolsofwar"againstMoscow.

AndforonceIactuallyagreewithBastrykin--withjustasmalltweak.Iwouldreplacetheword"war"with"counterinsurgency."

Because,withtheKremlinactivelyusingcorruption,organizedcrime,moneylaundering,andcyberattackstoundermineand
weakenWesterninstitutions,thebestweaponagainstthisinsidiousandstealthyinsurgencyisthedirectandopenapplicationof
theruleoflaw.

"AneffectiveWesternresponsetoRussia'smulti-dimensionalchallengerequiresawholeofgovernmentapproach,"veteran
Kremlin-watcherJamesSherrofChathamHousewroterecently.

"Unlessnon-defensearmsofgovernment(judicial,financial,regulatory)understandthedefenseandsecurityimplicationsoftheir
responsibilities,theywillnotbefitforpurpose."

Inotherwords,corruptionandtransnationalcrimearenationalsecurityissuesofthehighestmagnitude,andWestern
governmentsarestartingtotreatthemassuch.

"Inan'asymmetric'strugglewiththeUnitedStates,PutinandRussiahavetobeinnovative,catchtheWestoffguard,andfight
dirty,"FionaHill,aseniorfellowattheBrookingsInstitutionandco-authorofthebookMr.Putin:OperativeintheKremlin,wrote
recently.

PartoffightingdirtymeanstheKremlin'sisusingcorruptbusinessdealsandorganizedcrimetocompromiseofficialsand
businesselites,weakenresolve,andestablishTrojanHorsesinWesterncountries.

AndWesterngovernmentsarebecomingincreasingvigilantaboutcounteringthegeopoliticalthreatstemmingfromPutin's
weaponizationofglobalization.

TheEuropeanUnionhasbecomemoreassertiveinenforcingitsThirdEnergyPackageandpreventingGazpromfromflouting
antimonopolylaws.

HotRussianmoneyinEurope'sbanksandpropertymarketsisdrawingmorescrutiny.

OutrageovertherevelationsinthePanamaPapersareforcinggovernmentstocrackdownonoffshorehavens.

AndWesternlawenforcementhasmovedtopullthemaskoffMoscow'smorebrazenstate-sponsoredcriminalactivity.

TheconclusionofaBritishinvestigationbackinFebruarythatKremlinagentsassassinatedRussiandefectorAleksandr
LitvinenkowitharareradioactiveisotopeintheheartofLondonin2006--andthatVladimirPutinprobablygavethegreenlight--
isoneexample.

SpanishJudgeJosedelaMataissuinginternationalarrestwarrantsforadozenRussians--includingcurrentandformerofficials
--forlinkstoorganizedcrimeearlierthismonthisanother.

Alsothismonth,PortuguesepolicebrokeupaRussianorganizedcrimenetworkthathadreportedlyboughtcontrolofsoccer
clubsandusedthemtolaunderblackcash.

WiththebehaviorofVladimirPutin'sRussiaoftenresemblingthatofaninternationalcrimesyndicate,itonlystandstoreason
thattheKremlinwouldgetabsolutelyhystericalwheneverWesterncountriesexercisetheirsovereignrighttoenforcetheirown
lawsagainstRussianperpetrators.

"Thiseliteregardedglobalizationasabuffet--thattheycanenjoyalltheopportunitiesofbeingEuropeanswhileatthesametime
maintainingtheircapacitytostealwithimpunitybackwithinRussia,"NewYorkUniversity'sMarkGaleotti,anexpertonRussian
organizedcrime,toldTheMoscowTimes.

"Nowtheyarefindingthatthisisbecomingharderandharder."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at9:05AM
Subject:Eurovision2016:Russia'sSergeyLazarevfavouritetowin-BBCNews[ED:PB'sUseoftheWord"Pimp"toDescribeBBC'sWorkOn
BehalfofOl'Sergein'Spoton'.....ReadandWeep][AGoodReminderoftheKindofWondrousWorkBBCDidWithItsGirkin-Strelkov
InterviewsinDonbasduringtheEarlyStagesoftheRU-UAWar]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

BBCdoeswhatitcantopimpforPutin'sLondongradMultimillionDollar'SlickasSpit'Eurovisioncandidate.

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-36284814

Eurovision2016:Russia'sSergeyLazarevfavouritetowin
14May2016

FromthesectionEntertainment&Arts
ImagecopyrightGETTYIMAGESImagecaptionSergeyLazarev,whohailsfromSochi,isawell-knownsingerinRussia

Russiaisthefavouritetowinthisyear'sEurovisionSongContest,whichistakingplaceinStockholm.

Russia'sSergeyLazarev,ahugepopstarinthecountry,iswidelytippedtowinwithhistechnoballad,YouAreTheOnlyOne.

Australia,France,SwedenandUkrainearealsohotlytippedforsuccessinthecompetition.
TherunningorderforthecontestwasunveiledonFriday,withtheUK'sJoeandJakeperformingsecondlast.
Theduo,bothofwhomareformercontestantsofTheVoiceUK,werechosentorepresentBritaininapublicvoteinFebruary.
Followourlivecoverageofthecontest.

ImagecopyrightGETTYIMAGESImagecaptionJoeandJakewillrepresenttheUKinSaturdaynight'scontest

JoeandJakequalifiedforthefinalautomaticallyastheUKisoneofthebiggestfinancialcontributorstoEurovision,sothepairdidnothaveto
performatthesemi-final.

Eurovision2016:Reporter'sdiary
WhatdofansloveaboutEurovision?

WhyisRussiasodesperatetowinEurovision?

WhowastheUK'sfirstEurovisionsinger?

Ukrainiansinger's'familystory'

MichaelBall:'MyadviceforJoeandJake'

OtherfinalistsincludeUkraine-whoseentrantJamalaisthefirsteverCrimeanTatartoperformatthecontest.

Herpoliticallychargedsong1944isnottypicalEurovisionfare-itslyricsincludereferencestoStalin,Crimea,andclaimsofethniccleansing.

ThesonghasangeredRussia,whichannexedCrimeafromUkrainein2014,astensionbetweenthetwocountriesgrew.
IrelandwasknockedoutofthecontestafterformerWestlifesingerNickyByrnefailedtoqualifyinThursday'ssemi-final.

IthasbeenabadyearforScandinavianentries.

DenmarkandNorwaywereknockedoutinthesemi-finals,whichweredecidedbasedonacombinationofpublicandjuryvoting.Icelandand
Finlandalsofailedtomakeitthrough.

However,asreigningwinners,Swedenhasautomaticallyadvancedtothegrandfinal.

TheCzechRepublichasalsomadeittothefinal-thefirsttimeithasqualifiedsincethesemi-finalsystemwasintroducedin2004.

ImagecopyrightAFP/GETTYImagecaptionFormerWestlifestarNickyByrnefailedtoqualifyinThursday'ssemi-final

AustralianXFactorwinnerDamiIm,whowasmentoredbypopstarDanniiMinogue,wasvotedthroughtothefinalwithhersongSoundOf
Silence.

DespitebeingontheothersideoftheworldfromEurope,AustraliawasinvitedtojoinEurovisionforits60thanniversaryin2015,when
contestantGuySebastianfinishedinfifthplace.

Russiafavourites
AvictoryforsingerSergeyLazarevwouldmeanRussiawouldhostthecontestnextyearforthesecondtime-thecountryfirstwonin2008.

Russiaisknownforitscontroversiallawsregardinghomosexuality,makingitanunusualhostforaneventwithastrongLGBTfollowing.
LazarevtoldtheBBCtheLGBTcommunitywillbewelcomedtohiscountryifhewinsthecontest.

"GaylifeexistsinRussia,hesaid."Thereismoretalkandrumoursaboutproblemsthanexist.Ijustwantyoutocomeandseeeverything
yourself."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at10:43AM
Subject:Kitsch,glitzandpoliticsasRussiaslatedtowinEurovision|GlobalPost
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Oneofthekeysto"hybridwarfare"isflexibility.Here,Putin'sImageDeceptifiersgethimtoswallowhishomophobiaastheyhustletopimpRussia'sMultimillion
DollarSlickAsSpitCandidateintheEuroVisioncompetition.

TocounterUS/EUdisgustwithPutin'sNeo-NaziresurgenceinRussia,they'repandering(atleasttemporarily)totheLGBTcommunity.IntheUS,the
competitionisbeingcarriedbytheLogoChannel,whichisaimedatLGBTclients.Logo'slargestmarketisWestHollywood,whichalsojusthappenstobe
hometothelargestRussiancommunityintheUS(aswellasofLenin'sBigGiantHeadstatue).

What'snextforRussia?AGayPrideParadeinRedSquare?Cantheworld'slargestsynagogueinMoscowbefarbehind?Don'tkidyourself.Onestepback
todayfortwostepsforwardtomorrow.It'sallpartofthegame.

http://www.globalpost.com/article/6769303/2016/05/13/kitsch-glitz-and-politics-russia-slated-win-eurovision

NEXTSECTION......."IFTHERIGHTONEWON'TGETYA,THENTHELEFTONEWILL.....'[FromanOldTennesseeErnie
Fordsong]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at10:50AM
Subject:Fwd:AntiUkrainian"Workshop"inNewYork[OntheUSPOPULIST(OCC-WS)LEFT.....fearofafascist(read:Neo-Nazi)regimeina
countrythathasaprimeministerofJewishfaith.....toorichforwords]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Walter,haveyouheardaboutthis?

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:"BohdanFutala"<bfutala@verizon.net>

Date:May13,20169:10:36PMPDT

To:<bbesaha@yahoo.com>,"PeterBorisov"<apb.uke@earthlink.com>,"AndyFedynsky"<fedynsky@sbcglobal.net>,"LeoIwaskiw"
<liwaskiw@provassn.com>,<hanya@brama.com>,"MyronMelnyk"<mmelnyk@yahoo.com>,<ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu>,"Oryssia
Prokopovitch"<oryssia@hotmail.com>,"MyroslavaRozdolska"<myroslavar@hotmail.com>,<Unis.sawkiw@comcast.net>

Subject:AntiUkrainian"Workshop"inNewYork

NoticedthiseventlistedinTheUkrainianWeeklyatCCNYonSaturday5/21.ThepanelconsistsexclusivelyofproPutindiscipleswhoundoubtedlywillpresenta
convolutedanti-Ukrainiannarrative.ItwouldseemtobeincumbentuponMaidansupportersintheNYCareatoconfrontthem.Pleaseforwardthisinformation.

http://www.leftforum.org/content/situation-ukraine

Session1Room1.113Sat10:00am-11:50am

PanelProposal/WorkshopInformation
Panel/WorkshopYear:

2016

Abstract:

FightingcontinuesinUkrainewithrebelsinchargeoftheEasternareasofthecountryanddeclaringtheirindependencefromKiev.Strugglealsocontinuesin
otherpartsofthecountryagainstthedraftandtherightwinggovernment.OnMay2,wereachedthe2yearanniversaryofthefascistattackon
demonstratorattheOdessaHouseofTradeUnions,where46peoplewerekilled.AleaderoftheprogressivemovementfromOdessawilljointhispanel

SponsoringJournal:

UnitedNationalAntiwarCoalition(UNAC)

Panel/WorkshopTopics:

Europe

MorePanel/WorkshopInformation

DiversityofPersepctives:

ThispanelwillfeaturealeaderoftheprogressivemovementfromOdessawhoopposetherightwinggovernementinKiev.Shewillbejoinedbyother
speakerstodiscussthesituationwiththerebelheldareasofthecountryandthecontinuingstruggleinUkraine.

Participants

Chair/Facilitator:

Name:PhilWilayto ViewDetails

Speakers/Co-Facilitators:

Name:IrinaKovel ViewDetails

Name:GregButterfield ViewDetails

Name:BruceGagnon ViewDetails

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BFD
Date:2016-05-149:35GMT-04:00
Subject:[ONTHEPOPULISTRIGHTINTHEUS.........TheDon-VladBromanceContinues]
To:

DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirPutin
WarmwordsandpushtoimprovetieswithMoscowarentsharedbyBarackObama,Republicanpresidentialrivals
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattendsameetingwithmembersoftheLegislativeCouncilinSt.Petersburglastmonth.PHOTO:ALEXEIDRUZHININ/ASSOCIATEDPRESS

ByDamianPalettaTheWallStreetJournal

UpdatedMay13,20164:57p.m.ET

DonaldTrumpmadeanunusualpublicoverturetoRussianPresidentVladimirPutininJune2013,tryingtoginuppublicityforaneventhe
wasco-hostingthatyear.

DoyouthinkPutinwillbegoingtoTheMissUniversePageantinNovemberinMoscowifso,willhebecomemynewbestfriend?thereal
estatemagnatetweeted.

Thatappealcamelessthan24hoursafterPresidentBarackObamaandMr.Putinheldatense,unproductivemeetingatasummitofworld
leadersinNorthernIreland,astheysparredoverhowtode-escalatetheconflictinSyria.Ourpositionsdonotfullycoincide,Mr.Putinsaid
terselyafterward.

Mr.Trump,thepresumptiveGOPpresidentialnominee,hasproposedredrawingawiderangeofU.S.policies,includingtaxandimmigration
rules,tradeagreementsandengagementintheMiddleEast.Butinnoareahashebeenmorepersistentandperhapsmoreconsistent
thanhiscalltoimproverelationswithMr.Putin,anauthoritarianfigureoftenatoddswiththeU.S.

Mr.TrumpsviewsonMr.PutinseparatehimnotjustfromMr.ObamabutfromhisformerGOPrivals,andfromconservativesaswellas
liberals.Sen.MarcoRubio(R.,Fla.)calledMr.Putinagangsterandathug,andDemocraticfront-funnerHillaryClintonhastermedhima
bully,whileMr.Trumpcallshimverybrightandastrongleader.

ItsunclearwhetherMessrs.TrumpandPutinhavespokensincethecampaignbegan.Theyhaveexchangedpleasantriesinpublic
statements,butremaincoyaboutwhethertheyhavehadprivatediscussions.(SeeManafortarticle.TheQuietAmericanB/F]

Ibelieveaneasingoftensions,andimprovedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthonlyispossible,absolutelypossible,Mr.
Trumpsaidinaforeign-policyspeechatWashingtonsMayflowerHotelinApril.SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofind
out.

Afewminutesbeforehemadethoseremarks,Mr.TrumpmetataVIPreceptionwithRussiasambassadortotheU.S.,SergeyIvanovich
Kislyak.Mr.TrumpwarmlygreetedMr.Kislyakandthreeotherforeignambassadorswhocametothereception.

TheoriginofMr.TrumpsaffectionforRussiaisunclear.HetraveledtoMoscowinthe1990sinsearchofreal-estatedeals,buthiscompany
isntbelievedtohavepropertiesthere.HesaidlastweekthathisexperiencewithRussianofficialsincludedhostingthe2013MissUniverse
event.HedrewattentionforfloatingtheideaofaTrumpTowerinMoscow,butthestatusofthatprojectisalsounclear.

Mr.TrumpsprimarydiplomaticgoalregardingRussiaappearstobetoletMr.PutindealwithproblemsinSyriaandelsewhereinthe
Mideast,allowingtheU.S.todisengage.

OneproposalthathasgarneredpositiveRussianattentionisMr.TrumpssuggestionthattheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationfocuson
combatingterrorisminsteadofdeterringRussianaggression.ThatalarmsofficialsinUkraineandtheBaltics,formerSovietstatesthatfear
theycouldbecomeMr.PutinsnexttargetsfollowingRussiasannexationofUkrainianregionofCrimeainearly2014.

TheKremlinhassignaleditspleasedwithMr.Trumpssuccessandmessage.Mr.Trumpsayshewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,
tocloseranddeeperrelationswithRussiahowcanwenotwelcomethat?Mr.PutinsaidinDecember.Ofcourse,wewelcomeit.

ButMr.TrumpsrisehasunsettledanumberofveteranU.S.diplomats.

Theresamythologyaboutforeignpolicythatitsjustlikedeal-makinginthebusinessworld,andifyoudontlikethedeal,youcanjustwalk
away,saidMichaelMcFaul,acriticofMr.TrumpandformerU.S.ambassadortoRussiaunderMr.Obama.Inforeignpolicy,youcantwalk
away.Itcancomebacktobiteyou.Itcancreatevacuums.

U.S.relationswithMoscowhavedeterioratedinrecentyears,especiallysincetheannexationofCrimea.WashingtonhaschafedatRussias
backingforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad,andWesterndiplomatsbelieveMr.PutinislookingforwaystoaggressivelyassertRussias
regionalandglobalinfluence,withlittlerespectforhumanrights.

Atthesametime,WesternleadershavesoughtwaystoworkwithMoscowwheretheycan,inareasfromthenucleardealwithIrantothecivil
warinSyria.

Mr.TrumpisnotthefirstfiguretospeakofimprovingrelationswithRussiaandMr.Putin.Thelasttwopresidentshavevoicedsimilaraims,
onlytoseetheireffortsfounderinthefaceofgeopoliticalevents.

In2001,then-PresidentGeorgeW.BushsaidafterameetingwithMr.PutinthatIwasabletogetasenseofhissoul,aremarkthatwas
widelyderided,especiallyafterMr.PutintookaggressiveactionslikemovingintoneighboringGeorgiain2008.

Mr.ObamasteamalsospokeofresettingrelationswithRussia,buthe,too,hasseenrelationsdeteriorate,tothepointthatNATOhas
suspendedmuchofitsnascentcooperationwithRussia.

Althoughmanyconservativeforeign-policyexpertshavebalkedatMr.TrumpsoverturestoRussia,someagreethatitmaybetimetorethink
U.S.-Russiarelations.

WhatwehavenowinthedynamicsbetweenPutinandObamaisveryunhelpful,saidDimitriSimes,presidentoftheCenterfortheNational
Interest,whichhostedMr.Trumpsforeign-policyspeech.ObamaclearlydoesnottrustPutin,doesnotlikePutin,anddoesnthideit.Ithink
thatPutindoesntlikeObama,isnotafraidofObama,anddoesntparticularlyrespectObama.

Perhapsillustratingthat,Mr.PutinrejectedaninvitationfromMr.ObamatoattendasummitonnuclearweaponsinApril,sayingtheU.S.
hadntproperlyacknowledgedRussiasstatusasaworldpower.

Mr.TrumpseizedonthetensionafterRussianwarplanesandamilitaryhelicopterlastmonthbuzzedaU.S.NavyDestroyerintheBalticSea.

Itsjustnorespectforourpresidentorourcountry,andheistweakingus,Mr.TrumpsaidofMr.PutinonFoxNews.Ifitwereme,Iwilltell
you,IwouldcallhimandIwouldsay,Dontdoit.Juststopit.Dontdoit.

Headded,Andtheyregoingtorespectus,andIvehadasortofsemi-nicerelationshipwithPutinsaidverynicethingsaboutme.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/13/201612:05:31PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS....PLUSINTERESTINGPBWARNING][JDDD]Fwd:1stpg.item:"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdopingoperation
Subject:
detailedbylabchiefontherun+9MoreStories....[ODDD]OCSEStoriesthatneeda2nd&3rdlook!!......[ILANB]OldEnemie...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,May13,201611:59AM
Subject:Fwd:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS....PLUSINTERESTINGPBWARNING][JDDD]Fwd:1stpg.item:"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdoping
operationdetailedbylabchiefontherun+9MoreStories....[ODDD]OCSEStoriesthatneeda2nd&3rdlook!!......[ILANB]Old
Enemie...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at2:51PM
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS....PLUSINTERESTINGPBWARNING][JDDD]Fwd:1stpg.item:"Russian[Sochi]
OLYMPICdopingoperationdetailedbylabchiefontherun+9MoreStories....[ODDD]OCSEStoriesthatneeda2nd&3rd
look!!......[ILANB]OldEnemiesareback!!First(reset)RU,Now(dead)ALQ......[PBStories....PluswarningaboutRU
shenaniginsatEuro-vision2016DESERVESATTENTION]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at11:56AM
Subject:First-pageitem--"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdopingoperationdetailedbylabchiefontherun,"nytimes.com,
5/13
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Fwd:First-pageitem--"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdopingoperationdetailedbylabchiefontherun,"
nytimes.com,5/13

DozensofRussianathletesatthe2014WinterOlympicsinSochi,includingatleast15medalwinners,
werepartofastate-rundopingprogram,meticulouslyplannedforyearstoensuredominanceatthe
Games.Accordingto[GrigoryRodchenkov]thedirectorofthecountrysanti-dopinglaboratoryatthe
time.

And:Absurd,groundless,defamatory:RussiareactstoNYTdopingallegations,
themoscowtimes.com,5/13

And:BrianWHITMORE,PutinsSYNDICATEandthelaw,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27732468.html

Ifyouvenationalizedandweaponizedyourmafia,itsonlynaturaltoviewaninvestigationinto
organizedcrimeasaggression.Ifyouusecorruptionasatoolofstatecraft,youllprobablyseeefforts
tofostergreatertransparencyashostile.Ifassassinations,embezzlement,moneylaundering,andarms
traffickingarepartofyourforeignpolicytoolkit,itisnotsurprisingthatyouthinkprosecutingsuch
thingsisanactofwar.AleksandrBASTRYKINcertainlythinksitis.

And:SeanMcFATE,HowtheU.S.canDEFEATPutinsshadowwar,thedailybeast.com,5/13

PutinhasaczarsvisionforGreaterRussia,andthestrategicmindtoachieveit.Hisobjectiveis
simple:GettheU.S.OUTOFNATO,thenextendRussiassphereofinfluencetotheAtlantic.If
TRUMPiselected,thenIthinkitcouldhappen.

And:ThethreetopfiguresonRBCseditorialboardhavebeenPURGED:Thedismantlingofthe
independentnewsorganizationRBC:HowRussiagainedandtodaylostagreatsourceofnews,
meduza.io,5/13

And:TheentireleadershipofRBChasbeenremoved:thesocialmediaaebiddingfarewellto
independentmassmedia,http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1439299/

And:PutinFOREVER,theRussianpresidentcanbeexpectedtoremaininpowerpast2024,forthe
remainderofhislife:http://www.rosbalt.ru/2016/05/13/1513941.html

And:Reuters:GERMANYsaysRussiaprobablybehind[2015]CYBERATTACKonBundestag,
unian.info,5/13

RussianintelligenceagencieswereprobablyresponsibleforamassivecyberattackonGermanyslower
houseofparliamentlastyearwhichforceditscomputersystemstobeshutdownfordays,Germanys
domesticintelligenceagencysaidonFriday

And:HowRussiaallowedhomegrownRADICALStogoandfightinSYRIA,reuters.com,5/13
Majorinvestigativearticle

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at10:03AM
Subject:Ukraine:***********KHPG,ODNoteandUSOSCE[ED:VLADBREAKIN'REALLYBAD]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

KharkivHumanRightsProtectionGroup(3)
CrimeanTatarMejlisLeaderArrestedonExtremismCharges
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1463067076

StalinistEchoesinNewArmedArrestsinRussian-occupiedCrimea
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1463054237

Ukrainianbloggergetslongsentenceforexpressingcontentiousviews
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1463060983

ODNote:Imre-sendingthefollowing,asImnotsureyesterdaysmailinggotthroughto
everyoneduetosomeissuesonthisend.Pleasetakethetimetoreadandconsiderdisseminating.
TheresmuchtalkinthistownaboutRussiasdisinformationcampaignandgoodideasand
legislationonhowtomoreeffectivelyandsystematicallycounterit.Perhapsonesmallpartofthat
equationismoreeffectivelyutilizingstatementssuchastheseoratleasttheinformationthereinas
partofoureffortstogetoutthetruth?
TodaysUSstatementsinVienna.AgaincallingouttheRussiansandtheirseparatistsatraps:
USMissiontotheOSCE
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine:StatementtothePC
AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna,May12,2016
http://osce.usmission.gov/russias-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc-4/
TheUnitedStateswelcomestheoverallreductioninfightingineasternUkrainefollowingtheApril30ceasefirerecommitment,but
weareconcernedthatcombinedRussian-separatistforcescontinuetheirpatternofceasefireviolationsandprovocations.Russia
andtheseparatistshaveconsistentlyfollowedeachceasefireineasternUkrainewithrenewedattacksongovernmentforces.The
SMMrecordedover1,000ceasefireviolationsonMay8alone.WecalluponcombinedRussian-separatistforcestoendtheir
provocationsandfullyrespecttheceasefire.WeencouragetheSMMtoattributeresponsibilityforceasefireviolationswheneverit
can,whichwillhelptheinternationalcommunityputpressureonviolatorstohonorthecurrent,tenuousceasefire.

Thepresenceofheavyweaponsinseparatist-controlledareasandincloseproximitytothelineofcontactmeanssmallarmsfire
canquicklyescalatetofull-scaleviolence.CombinedRussian-separatistforceshavedeclaredonlyafractionoftheirweaponryto
theSMM,whichhasnonethelessreportedthepresenceofanundiminishedarsenalofheavyweaponsinseparatist-heldLuhansk,
includingtanks,howitzers,armoredcombatvehicles,andsurface-to-airmissilesystems.CombinedRussian-separatistforces
claimedthattheseweaponswereinLuhanskforaparade,eventhoughtheirpresencewasclearlycontrarytotheMinsk
agreements.Thisweekalone,theSMMobservedfourteentimesasmanyproscribedweaponsinseparatist-heldareasasthey
foundinareasundergovernmentcontrol.This,eventhoughRussian-separatistforcescontinuetodenyunfettered,safeaccessto
theSMM.WecalluponRussiaandtheseparatiststowithdrawtheirweaponstostoragesitesandholdingareasimmediately.
Givenitsobviousinfluencewiththeseparatistsandthefactthatitarms,trains,andfightsalongsidetheminUkraine,Russiaclearly
hastheabilitytoensurethattheseparatistswithdrawproscribedheavyweapons.Weunderscoreonceagainthatlocalelectionsin
certainareasofDonetskandLuhanskcannotbeheldatgunpoint.

Colleagues,twoweeksagoboththechairoftheTrilateralContactGroup(TCG)andthechairoftheTCGshumanitarianworking
groupexpressedtheirhopethatprisonerswouldatlastbeexchangedinlargenumbers,onthebasisoftheall-for-allprinciplein
theMinskPackageofMeasures.Suchanexchangewouldhelpbuildmuch-neededconfidenceandrestorepositivemomentumfor
diplomatictalks.WeapplaudtheGovernmentofUkraineforagreeingtoreleasetwoprisonersforeveryonereleasedbythe
separatistsinordertojump-starttheprocess.Unfortunately,theseparatistshaverenegedonaprisonerexchangeagreement.We
hopetoseeprogressonprisonerexchangesinthecomingdays.Ofcourse,Russiamustalsoreleasethoseitunjustlyholdson
Russianterritory,includingNadiyaSavchenko,consistentwithitsobligationsundertheMinskagreements.

Nolessimportantistheissueofmissingpersons.Hundredsoffamiliesareinanguish,notknowingwhethertheirlovedonesare
aliveordead.SuchisthefateofVictoriaOstrovskaya,aresidentofHorlivka,whosehusbandVictordisappearednearlytwo
yearsagoafterleavinghometocareforhisdisabledmother.WerecognizeUkrainesgoodfaitheffortsinthisarea,asithasgiven
theInternationalCommitteeoftheRedCrossaccesstoitsdetaineesandexpressedsupportfortheestablishmentofamechanism
onmissingpersons.Wecalluponso-calledseparatistauthoritiestoworkwiththeICRCandotherstohelpfacilitatetheaccounting
ofthosemissingintheconflict.

Longlinesofcivilianswaitingatthelineofcontactdemonstratetheneedformoresafecrossingpoints.WerecognizeUkraines
commitmenttoopenanothercrossingpointinZolote,andcallonRussiaandtheseparatiststotakethestepsnecessaryforthis
positivedevelopmenttooccur.TheRussianFederationandtheseparatistsitbacksshouldallowdeminingoftheareaandpull
heavyweaponsbackfromZoloteandallcrossingpoints.WeremindtheinternationalcommunitythatRussiaandtheseparatists
haveblockedaccesstointernationalhumanitarianorganizationssincelastsummer,deprivingresidentsoftheDonbasmuchneeded
foodandmedicine.Russiaandtheseparatistsmustreversethatpolicyimmediatelyandallowthedeliveryoflifesavingassistance.

MadamChair,colleagues,RussiasongoingabusesanddefianceofOSCEprinciplesandcommitmentsoccurnotjustinthe
DonbasbutinRussian-occupiedCrimea.OnMay6,Russianauthoritiesarrestedmorethan50CrimeanTatarsleavingamosque
afterFridayprayersfornothavingtheirpassportstopresenttothepolice.Thisincident,sadly,isnotisolated,butpartofa
systematiccampaignofoppressionanddiscriminationagainsttheCrimeanTatarcommunityandanyoneelsewhodarestovoice
disagreementwiththedefactoauthorities.U.S.sanctionsagainsttheRussianFederationrelatedtoitsoccupationofCrimeawill
remaininplaceuntiltheoccupationendsandRussiareturnscontrolofCrimeatoUkraine.SanctionsimposedupontheRussian
FederationforitsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitscommitmentsintheMinsk
agreements.
Thankyou,MadamChair.
USMissiontotheOSCE
Onthe72ndAnniversaryoftheDeportationoftheCrimeanTartars|StatementtothePC

http://osce.usmission.gov/72nd-anniversary-deportation-crimean-tartars-statement-pc/

OnMay18,1944,theSovietgovernmentorderedthemassdeportationofover230,000CrimeanTatarsfromtheirhomeland.72
yearswillhavepassedsincethousandsoffamilieswereforciblyseparatedsomecitizensweregivenminuteswarningand
depositedonthefreezingsteppesofKazakhstanandUzbekistan.Nearlyhalfofthosedeported,mostlywomenandchildren,
perishedbetween1944and1947.TheCrimeanTatarcommunityrelivedthispainfulmemoryforgenerations,andpassedstories
ofthedeportationdowntothosewhocarryonTatartraditionstoday.

Thescopeofthistragedybearsremembrance,allthemoresobecausethepersecutionoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleisnotmerelya
historicalfact,itisapresent-dayrealityinRussia-occupiedCrimea.TheRussiangovernmenthascarriedoutacampaignof
violence,includingkillings,disappearances,imprisonment,andtortureagainstthosewhoopposetheoccupation.Russiahas
bannedtheCrimeanTatarMejlisthesoleindependent,legally-recognizedvoiceoftheTatarpeople.IthasshutdownTatar
languagemediaoutletsandcutoffTatar-languageschools.

OccupationauthoritieshavebarredCrimeanTatarsfromgatheringpubliclyinremembranceofthemassdeportationcarriedoutin
theSovietera.Theroundupofover50CrimeanTatarsonMay6fornotcarryingtheirpassportsborechillingechoesofthe
deportation,particularlyafteroccupationauthoritiesclaimedthepolicewereverifyingcompliancewithmigrationlegislation.

RussiamustenditsrepressionofCrimeanTatars,andallwhoarevictimsofitsoccupation,byupholdinginternationallawinstead
ofthwartingit,andprotectingthefreedomsofexpression,peacefulassembly,association,andreligion.Weagainrenewourcallfor
RussiatoimmediatelyenditsoccupationofCrimea.OurCrimea-relatedsanctionswillremaininforceuntilRussiareturnsthis
Ukrainianterritory.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:IlanBerman<berman@afpc.org>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at12:29PM
Subject:Bermanonal-Qaeda'scomebackinUSAToday
To:IlanBerman<berman@afpc.org>

AlQaeda Resurrects Under ISIL Shadow

Ilan Berman
May 13, 2016

Whatever happened to alQaeda? A decadeandahalf ago, it perpetrated the single largest act of
international terrorism to ever take place on American soil. Yet, these days, Osama bin Laden's terror
network barely warrants a mention in the mainstream news media. Instead, it is alQaeda's onetime Iraqi
franchise, now known as the Islamic State, or ISIL, which commands near total attention in both politics and
the press. That has never been more true than on Iraq's bloodiest day of 2016 when bombs swept through
Baghdad killing at least 93.
Perhaps that's understandable. Bin Laden was killed in a U.S. special operations raid in Pakistan in 2011. And
over the past two years, ISIL's explosive growth in Iraq and Syria, its unparalleled brutality and its ability to
mobilize disaffected Muslims have helped catapult the terrorist group to the status of global public enemy
No. 1. Despite notable gains by the expanding military coalition being marshaled against it, the group for the
moment remains a formidable and entrenched foe.

But recent days have also brought a timely reminder that ISIL's progenitor, too, is still alive and kicking. As
Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute details in Foreign Policy magazine, alQaeda is poised to establish
a proto state in northern Syria, where its regional affiliate, Jabhat alNusra, has managed to carve out a
fiefdom of its own in the midst of the Syrian civil war.

That revelation is significant for at least three reasons:

AlQaeda is playing a long game. The "scorched earth" strategy and brutal tactics of ISIL, and international
attention they have engendered, have bought alQaeda muchneeded breathing room. The bin Laden
network has used this time wisely, launching an extensive "rebranding" campaign and successfully positioning
itself as the more reasonable Salafi alternative to ISIL in various jihadist theaters. And, as Nusra's advances in
northern Syria showcase, its message is resonating.

AlQaeda's strategy is shifting. "The Islamic State and alQaeda use different tactics in Syria," Lister notes,
"but their ultimate objective there is the same: the creation of an Islamic emirate." That hasn't always been
the case. Before the rise of ISIL, alQaeda's ideologues talked in principle about the creation of a "caliphate"
but eschewed territorial control in practice and even warned other Islamist movements not to get caught
up in the daytoday drudgery of statebuilding. But since ISIL's declaration of a "caliphate" in June 2014, and
the evident support for this idea in Islamist circles, the bin Laden network appears to have substantially
revised its stance on the matter and is seeking a similar objective.

AlQaeda still has mass appeal. As Lister recounts, Nusra's successes in Syria have been made possible in
large part by an influx of new recruits. That suggests our understanding of the "foreign fighter" phenomenon
is woefully inadequate. U.S. and allied intelligence agencies now estimate that upwards of 27,000 foreign
fighters have joined the jihad in Iraq and Syria. But their analysis tends to focus on tracking these foreign
fighters and identifying their countries of origin. Far less attention is paid to with whom, exactly, these
militants affiliate once they arrive on the battlefield. Nusra's expanding reach indicates that while ISIL is a
major beneficiary of this influx, it is hardly the only one.

All of which, in turn, implies that alQaeda is finding opportunity within adversity. There can be no question
that the group has been hurt by the rise of ISIL. But its most recent moves in Syria suggest strongly
that having had both the time and the opportunity to regroup and restructure, the bin Laden network
is positioning itself for a comeback.

Ilan Berman is Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/05/13/alqaedasyriarebrandingbinladenalnusraislamic
statecolumn/84243178/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at11:59AM
Subject:Russia'wasbehindGermanparliamenthack'-BBCNews
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Oh,Gosh,Darnit!And,Putinpromisedhewouldn'tdothatanymore!It'sgettingtothepointwhereyoujustcan'ttrustanyone!

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36284447

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at12:23PM
Subject:RussianInsiderSaysState-RunDopingFueledOlympicGold-TheNewYorkTimes
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

PutinplaysRope-A-DopewiththerestoftheworldasdruggedupRussianathletesStealtheGoldattheSochiWinterOlympics
201/4.[ED:Worse.....Vladpumpeduphismasseswith'nationalpride'ashepreparedtotakeCrimea...]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/13/sports/russia-doping-sochi-olympics-2014.html?
emc=edit_na_20160512&nlid=65195783&ref=cta&_r=0

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Fri,May13,2016at12:41PM
Subject:WhyisRussiasodesperatetowin[correction:STEAL]Eurovision?-BBCNews
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

AfterStealingtheGoldattheSochiWinterOlympics(seeseparaterelatedstory),PutinisnowStealingtheGoldattheEurovision
SongContestinStockholm.

ThevotingintheEurovisionContestisdonebySMSfrompeople'smobilephones.Youcanvoteforanycountry'scandidate
exceptyourown.Putin'sansweristobuyuptensandtensofthousandsofmobilephonenumbersthroughoutEuropeanduse
computerbankstosendintheSMSvotesforRussia'scandidate.

ThegoalofthisverycostlyeffortistoknockoutUkraine'scandidate,Jamala,whosesong,"1944,"referenceshergrandparents
sufferingduringtheRussianGenocideofCrimeanTartarsin1944.(Russiaforciblyexpelled,literallyovernight,theentireCrimean
TartarpopulationtoCentralAsiakillingsome300,000intheprocess.)

Putinhadalreadyspentmanymillionstoputtogetherasuperslickactwithfarmoredecorandelectronicsthantalent.Then
Jamalachimedinwith"1944"andgavePutinthevapors!Tostopher,heisspendingmillionsonnon-RussianEuropeanphone
numberstostealtheFirstPrize.

Whenyouhave$1.3TrillionstashedinPanama,youcanaffordtodothesethings!ThisisarealliveSMERS/Hinaworldwithno
JamesBondyet.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36269302

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/13/201608:57:19AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:First-pageitem--"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdopingoperationdetailedbylabchiefontherun,"nytimes.com,5/13

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,May13,20168:57AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:First-pageitem--"Russian[Sochi]OLYMPICdopingoperationdetailedbylabchiefontherun,"nytimes.com,5/13

DozensofRussianathletesatthe2014WinterOlympicsinSochi,includingatleast15medalwinners,
werepartofastaterundopingprogram,meticulouslyplannedforyearstoensuredominanceatthe
Games.Accordingto[GrigoryRodchenkov]thedirectorofthecountrysantidopinglaboratoryatthe
time.

And:Absurd,groundless,defamatory:RussiareactstoNYTdopingallegations,
themoscowtimes.com,5/13

And:BrianWHITMORE,PutinsSYNDICATEandthelaw,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27732468.html

Ifyouvenationalizedandweaponizedyourmafia,itsonlynaturaltoviewaninvestigationinto
organizedcrimeasaggression.Ifyouusecorruptionasatoolofstatecraft,youllprobablyseeefforts
tofostergreatertransparencyashostile.Ifassassinations,embezzlement,moneylaundering,and
armstraffickingarepartofyourforeignpolicytoolkit,itisnotsurprisingthatyouthinkprosecuting
suchthingsisanactofwar.AleksandrBASTRYKINcertainlythinksitis.

And:SeanMcFATE,HowtheU.S.canDEFEATPutinsshadowwar,thedailybeast.com,5/13

PutinhasaczarsvisionforGreaterRussia,andthestrategicmindtoachieveit.Hisobjectiveis
simple:GettheU.S.OUTOFNATO,thenextendRussiassphereofinfluencetotheAtlantic.IfTRUMP
iselected,thenIthinkitcouldhappen.

And:ThethreetopfiguresonRBCseditorialboardhavebeenPURGED:Thedismantlingofthe
independentnewsorganizationRBC:HowRussiagainedandtodaylostagreatsourceofnews,
meduza.io,5/13

And:TheentireleadershipofRBChasbeenremoved:thesocialmediaaebiddingfarewellto
independentmassmedia,http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1439299/

And:PutinFOREVER,theRussianpresidentcanbeexpectedtoremaininpowerpast2024,forthe
remainderofhislife:http://www.rosbalt.ru/2016/05/13/1513941.html

And:Reuters:GERMANYsaysRussiaprobablybehind[2015]CYBERATTACKonBundestag,
unian.info,5/13

RussianintelligenceagencieswereprobablyresponsibleforamassivecyberattackonGermanys
lowerhouseofparliamentlastyearwhichforceditscomputersystemstobeshutdownfordays,
GermanysdomesticintelligenceagencysaidonFriday

And:HowRussiaallowedhomegrownRADICALStogoandfightinSYRIA,reuters.com,5/13Major
investigativearticle

From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/11/201604:49:40PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:AMandDAattheHoC

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
Date:12May201609:19:09AEST
To:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Cc:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Subject:Re:AMandDAattheHoC

Lostforwordsmyself.It'scertainlythecasethatif-Lordsaveus-Trumpweretobecomepresident,justtreating
himasaclownwouldnolongerbeanoption,andIsupposeitbehovesforeignpolicytypestothinkaboutwhat
approachtheymighttake,justincase.Buttosuggestthetwocandidatesaremuchofamuchness!
I'llbekindtoJulianandassumeit'shisEnglishdiscomfortatanythingthatsoundslikewe'regettingcarriedaway,
lettingemotiontakeover.Itcouldn'tpossiblybe,couldit,thatit'sbecauseTrumpsaysnicerthingsaboutPutinthan
Clinton?
TheoddthingisthatJuliandoesn'tsaythingslikethisoneonone-ormaybewebothtrimoursailstofindahappy,
conflict-freezonewhenwe'retogether.ButevenwhenhewasherewithSilvana,hespentmoretimefightingwithher
thanwithmeorAlyona.
IncidentallyIdidn'tgettheimpressionfromthetranscriptthatAMorDAwerecallingfornegotiationswithPutin.
Theywerejustaskingforarealisticapproachifsuchnegotiationswereundertaken.I'vemeetDerrickafewtimes,I
think,butIcan'tsayIknowhim.ButIknowAndrewquitewell.HegetsupsetatexcitedclaimsthatRussia's
economyisgoingtocollapsetomorrow,orthatPutin'sgoingtobombTallinnthedayafter.Buthehasnoillusions
aboutPutinorthosearoundhim,andisabletotalkaboutitwithoutconstantlydragginginthemisdeedsoftheUS.
WhetherhethinksnegotiationswithPutinwouldgetanywhere,tobehonestI'venoidea,buthecertainlywouldn't
bestarryeyedaboutit.
I'vetypedoutsomecommentsinresponsetoRodric'srequest,butI'mnotsurethatI'mgametosendthem.
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On12May2016,at08:25,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:

LookslikeaSilvana-Julianprovocation,pointlesstorespond.IndeedIcant,lostforwords:not
entirelyunfairindeed.

ImflabbergastedthatJulianisineffectendorsingTrump.IguessIshouldntbe.

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
Subject:RE:AMandDAattheHoC
Date:11May201611:09:01pmAEST
To:SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,'KyleWilson'
<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,'StephenFortescue'
<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,"phill_hanson@outlook.com"
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>,"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,
"keith.bush017@gmail.com"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,'RodericLyne'
<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,"rghorvath@yahoo.com"
<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,'ElizabethTeague'<teagueeliza@aol.com>,
"Ian@cer.org.uk"<Ian@cer.org.uk>,'BoboLo'<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,
"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,'KlausSegbers'
<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"<HansonPhl@aol.com>

IdidindeeddrawSilvana'sattentiontotheNationalInterestandtheCenterofthesamename
(presidentDimitriSimes,honorarychair,Kissinger)asIthinkitdoesquiteagoodjobin
keepingaliveseriousdiscussionofforeignpolicyissues,whetheroneagreesordisagreeswith
theviewsexpressed.IttooktheinitiativeinofferingTrumpanopportunitytospellouthis
viewsonforeignpolicy,whichIthoughtwasworthwhilegiventhathemayendupasthenext
president.CertainlyhereintheUK,thegeneralresponsetoTrumpistotreathimasajoke,
justaclownnotqualifiedforhighoffice,whichIdon'tfindverysensible.LikeSilvana,Iamnot
afanofeitheroftheleadcandidates.HereisatakeonClintonontheNationalInterest
websitetodayinmyviewnotentirelyunfair:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/clintons-road-the-white-house-paved-war-16068

Julian

From:SilvanaMalle[silvana.malle@univr.it]
Sent:11May201613:44
To:'KyleWilson'
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'JulianCooper'Stephen
Fortescue'phill_hanson@outlook.comjohn.besemeres@anu.edu.auRichard
Connollykeith.bush017@gmail.com'RodericLyne'rghorvath@yahoo.com'Elizabeth
Teague'Ian@cer.org.uk'BoboLo'carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se'Klaus
Segbers'HansonPhl@aol.com
Subject:R:AMandDAattheHoC

Kyle,IhavenopreferenceforeitherTrumporClinton.PoorAmericans,notagood
alternativefromanypointofview.
Interestingtome,thissideofourcomplicateword,isnotinghowtheforeignpolicy
landscapeisnowgraduallychangingintheUS.Hagelisonlythelatestamonghigh
profileconservativesechoingwhatonecanreadalmostregularlyfromNationalInterest
(courtesyofJuliantodrawmyattentiontothispublication).s
Da: Kyle Wilson [mailto:wilsonkyle81@gmail.com]
Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 13:45
A: Silvana Malle
Cc: Rodric Braithwaite; Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; <phill_hanson@outlook.com>;
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>; Richard Connolly; <keith.bush017@gmail.com>; Roderic
Lyne; <rghorvath@yahoo.com>; Elizabeth Teague; <Ian@cer.org.uk>; Bobo Lo;
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>; Klaus Segbers; <HansonPhl@aol.com>
Oggetto: Re: AM and DA at the HoC

DearSilvana,

I'mpuzzled:doyouthinkweshouldurgeourAmericanfriendsandacquaintancestovote
forTrump?AndthatweshouldhopethatTrumpiselected?OramImissingsomething?

I'mgratefultoRodricforencouragingustoreadthetranscript(Ihavetoadmitthatits
lengthdauntedme).ItcoverssomuchterritoryindetailthatIshallspareyouandshan't
offercomment.Obviouslythetwospecialistsareexceptionallywellinformedandtheir
assessmentsstrikemeasdeeplyconsideredandjudicious.Inthemain.

ThepointthatinspeakingtotheRussiansoneneedstohaveaclearideaofwhatone
seekstoachieveseemstometimely--itoughttobeobvioustoeveryonebutitisn't!

Gawd,wheredidthisKawczynskispringfrom?RTshouldrecruithim.Howunfairof
DanilevskitoaccusethePolesofbeingthe'SlavicJudases'.

ThattheFSBdecidedtosilenceLitvinenkowithoutseekingPutin'sagreementrunscounter
toeverythingI'velearnedabouthowRussiaworks.Litvinenkohadtobesilencedbecause
ofknowledgehehadthatcoulddamagePutin.Thatisnotonlylogical:itistheviewofthe
onlypersonIknowwhoknowsPutinquitewell.

Andit'softenforgottenthattheoperationwasexposedbysheerchance:itmayhavebeen
carriedoutclumsily,withthattrailofPoloniumacrossEurope,buttheideawasingenious.
AndhaditnotbeenforfortheacuityofaBritishscientistitwouldnothavebeen
exposed.

Kyle

SentfrommyiPad
From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/11/201601:22:38PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:AMandDAattheHoC

Saysitall,really.

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
Date:11May201623:09:01AEST
To:SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,'KyleWilson'<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,'StephenFortescue'<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,
"phill_hanson@outlook.com"<phill_hanson@outlook.com>,"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,"keith.bush017@gmail.com"
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,'RodericLyne'<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,"rghorvath@yahoo.com"
<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,'ElizabethTeague'<teagueeliza@aol.com>,"Ian@cer.org.uk"<Ian@cer.org.uk>,'Bobo
Lo'<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,'KlausSegbers'
<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"<HansonPhl@aol.com>
Subject:RE:AMandDAattheHoC

IdidindeeddrawSilvana'sattentiontotheNationalInterestandtheCenterofthesamename(presidentDimitriSimes,
honorarychair,Kissinger)asIthinkitdoesquiteagoodjobinkeepingaliveseriousdiscussionofforeignpolicyissues,
whetheroneagreesordisagreeswiththeviewsexpressed.IttooktheinitiativeinofferingTrumpanopportunitytospell
outhisviewsonforeignpolicy,whichIthoughtwasworthwhilegiventhathemayendupasthenextpresident.Certainly
hereintheUK,thegeneralresponsetoTrumpistotreathimasajoke,justaclownnotqualifiedforhighoffice,whichI
don'tfindverysensible.LikeSilvana,Iamnotafanofeitheroftheleadcandidates.HereisatakeonClintononthe
NationalInterestwebsitetodayinmyviewnotentirelyunfair:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/clintons-road-the-white-house-paved-war-16068

Julian

From:SilvanaMalle[silvana.malle@univr.it]
Sent:11May201613:44
To:'KyleWilson'
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'JulianCooper'StephenFortescue'phill_hanson@outlook.comjohn.besemeres@anu.edu.au
RichardConnollykeith.bush017@gmail.com'RodericLyne'rghorvath@yahoo.com'ElizabethTeague'Ian@cer.org.uk
'BoboLo'carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se'KlausSegbers'HansonPhl@aol.com
Subject:R:AMandDAattheHoC

Kyle,IhavenopreferenceforeitherTrumporClinton.PoorAmericans,notagoodalternativefromanypointof
view.
Interestingtome,thissideofourcomplicateword,isnotinghowtheforeignpolicylandscapeisnowgradually
changingintheUS.Hagelisonlythelatestamonghighprofileconservativesechoingwhatonecanreadalmost
regularlyfromNationalInterest(courtesyofJuliantodrawmyattentiontothispublication).s
Da: Kyle Wilson [mailto:wilsonkyle81@gmail.com]
Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 13:45
A: Silvana Malle
Cc: Rodric Braithwaite; Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; <phill_hanson@outlook.com>; <john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>;
Richard Connolly; <keith.bush017@gmail.com>; Roderic Lyne; <rghorvath@yahoo.com>; Elizabeth Teague;
<Ian@cer.org.uk>; Bobo Lo; <carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>; Klaus Segbers; <HansonPhl@aol.com>
Oggetto: Re: AM and DA at the HoC

DearSilvana,

I'mpuzzled:doyouthinkweshouldurgeourAmericanfriendsandacquaintancestovoteforTrump?Andthatwe
shouldhopethatTrumpiselected?OramImissingsomething?

I'mgratefultoRodricforencouragingustoreadthetranscript(Ihavetoadmitthatitslengthdauntedme).Itcovers
somuchterritoryindetailthatIshallspareyouandshan'toffercomment.Obviouslythetwospecialistsare
exceptionallywellinformedandtheirassessmentsstrikemeasdeeplyconsideredandjudicious.Inthemain.

ThepointthatinspeakingtotheRussiansoneneedstohaveaclearideaofwhatoneseekstoachieveseemstome
timely--itoughttobeobvioustoeveryonebutitisn't!

Gawd,wheredidthisKawczynskispringfrom?RTshouldrecruithim.HowunfairofDanilevskitoaccusethePoles
ofbeingthe'SlavicJudases'.

ThattheFSBdecidedtosilenceLitvinenkowithoutseekingPutin'sagreementrunscountertoeverythingI'velearned
abouthowRussiaworks.LitvinenkohadtobesilencedbecauseofknowledgehehadthatcoulddamagePutin.That
isnotonlylogical:itistheviewoftheonlypersonIknowwhoknowsPutinquitewell.

Andit'softenforgottenthattheoperationwasexposedbysheerchance:itmayhavebeencarriedoutclumsily,with
thattrailofPoloniumacrossEurope,buttheideawasingenious.AndhaditnotbeenforfortheacuityofaBritish
scientistitwouldnothavebeenexposed.

Kyle

SentfrommyiPad

On11May2016,at17:53,SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>wrote:

Hagel,andperhapsotherW.DCrevisionists,seemtoagreewithsensibleAMandDA.s
http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnayapanorama/3271128-:

102016

",
",-
,10././.
.
,
,.
",,
,
",-."
,,-
.-,
,,,".
-,",
,".
-.,
,,

.
,.",
.",-."
,,.",-
.,45-,
,
-,
:"".,
"".
172015,-,
,
.
,
."(),,
.?,",-
.

Da: Rodric Braithwaite [mailto:rqbraithwaite@mac.com]


Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 07:19
A: Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; phill_hanson@outlook.com; john.besemeres@anu.edu.au;
ErcFried@aol.com; Richard Connolly; keith.bush017@gmail.com; silvana.malle@univr.it; Roderic Lyne;
rghorvath@yahoo.com; Rodric Braithwaite; Elizabeth Teague; Ian@cer.org.uk; wilsonkyle81@gmail.com;
Bobo Lo; carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se; Klaus Segbers; HansonPhl@aol.com
Oggetto: Fwd: Item by Gleb Pavlovsky Word document

IdontthinkanyonehascommentedontheevidencebyAverreandMonaghamtowhichJuliandrew
ourattention.Iagreewithhim:theytalkalotofsense.ButIdbeinterestedinotherviewstoo.

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
Subject:RE:ItembyGlebPavlovsky-Worddocument
Date:7May2016at12:18:54BST
To:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,"phill_hanson@outlook.com"
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>
Cc:"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,"ErcFried@aol.com"
<ErcFried@aol.com>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,
"keith.bush017@gmail.com"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,"silvana.malle@univr.it"
<silvana.malle@univr.it>,"rodericlyne@hotmail.com"<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,
"rghorvath@yahoo.com"<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,"rqbraithwaite@mac.com"
<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,"teagueeliza@aol.com"<teagueeliza@aol.com>,
"Ian@cer.org.uk"<Ian@cer.org.uk>,"wilsonkyle81@gmail.com"
<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk"<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,
"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,"segbers@zedat.fu-
berlin.de"<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"<HansonPhl@aol.com>

Iseereasonforgloomorexistentialdoubts.IthinkthearticletellsusmoreaboutPavlovskiithanitdoes
aboutRussiatoday.Havingreadhis2014bookSistemaRFvvoine2014goda.DePrincipataDebili,many
sectionsarefamiliar,itlookslikeacutandpastejobonthattextwithabitofupdating.Thebookistypical
GP-itisanintellectualgame,thebookbasedonthestructureofMachiavelli's(clearlyGP'shero)ThePrince.
GPusedtoknowhowRussiaworked,hewasontheinsideasaconsultantcreatingthesistema,pullingthe
stringsandlevers,workingwithSurkovandotherswith,Isuspect,quiteconsiderabledegreesof
freedom,butbroadlywithinanunderstoodframeworkacceptabletoPutin.WithMedvedevasPresidenthe
carriedonuntilApril2011whenhewasbanished.HethenfelloutwithPutinashedisagreedwithhis
decisiontoreturnaspresident.HewasfrankaboutthiswhenImethim,inOslo,aboutthreeyearsago.He
wasclearlyembittered,asardonicoutsider,nolongerwithinfluence.Heisnotatheoretician.Hedoesnot
haveanyconceptualrigourevensistemaisnotdefinedinanyconsistent,intelligible,mannerinhisbook,or
inthearticle,itismoreasentimentthanastructuredsystemofpower.ButIfindhimengagingandalways
worthreading,butnottounderstandRussiabetter.Iwouldnotworry,Stephen,carryonwithyourexcellent
analysisofdecisionmakingtowhichweareallindebted.

Tobringusdowntoearth,somequalityanalysisbytwoRussiaspecialists.Somemayfindthefollowingof
interest,DerekAverreandAndrewMonaghangivingevidenceearlierintheweektotheHouseofCommons
ForeignAffairsCommittee:
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/foreign-affairs-
committee/the-uks-relations-with-russia/oral/32880.html

Julian

From: teagueeliza@aol.com
Senttime: 05/11/201611:55:45AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: Fwd:AMandDAattheHoC

Incaseitisoftheslightestinterest...Otherwise,Iapologiseforsendingyouallthisstuff!

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
To:SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>'KyleWilson'<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
CC:'RodricBraithwaite'<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>'StephenFortescue'<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>phill_hanson
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>john.besemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>
keith.bush017<keith.bush017@gmail.com>'RodericLyne'<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>rghorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>'Elizabeth
Teague'<teagueeliza@aol.com>Ian<Ian@cer.org.uk>'BoboLo'<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>carolina.vendil.pallin
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>'KlausSegbers'<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>HansonPhl<HansonPhl@aol.com>
Sent:Wed,11May201614:09
Subject:RE:AMandDAattheHoC

IdidindeeddrawSilvana'sattentiontotheNationalInterestandtheCenterofthesamename(presidentDimitriSimes,honorarychair,
Kissinger)asIthinkitdoesquiteagoodjobinkeepingaliveseriousdiscussionofforeignpolicyissues,whetheroneagreesordisagrees
withtheviewsexpressed.IttooktheinitiativeinofferingTrumpanopportunitytospellouthisviewsonforeignpolicy,whichIthought
wasworthwhilegiventhathemayendupasthenextpresident.CertainlyhereintheUK,thegeneralresponsetoTrumpistotreathim
asajoke,justaclownnotqualifiedforhighoffice,whichIdon'tfindverysensible.LikeSilvana,Iamnotafanofeitherofthelead
candidates.HereisatakeonClintonontheNationalInterestwebsitetodayinmyviewnotentirelyunfair:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/clintons-road-the-white-house-paved-war-16068

Julian

From:SilvanaMalle[silvana.malle@univr.it]
Sent:11May201613:44
To:'KyleWilson'
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'JulianCooper'StephenFortescue'phill_hanson@outlook.comjohn.besemeres@anu.edu.auRichard
Connollykeith.bush017@gmail.com'RodericLyne'rghorvath@yahoo.com'ElizabethTeague'Ian@cer.org.uk'BoboLo'
carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se'KlausSegbers'HansonPhl@aol.com
Subject:R:AMandDAattheHoC

Kyle,IhavenopreferenceforeitherTrumporClinton.PoorAmericans,notagoodalternativefromanypointofview.
Interestingtome,thissideofourcomplicateword,isnotinghowtheforeignpolicylandscapeisnowgraduallychangingin
theUS.HagelisonlythelatestamonghighprofileconservativesechoingwhatonecanreadalmostregularlyfromNational
Interest(courtesyofJuliantodrawmyattentiontothispublication).s
Da: Kyle Wilson [mailto:wilsonkyle81@gmail.com]
Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 13:45
A: Silvana Malle
Cc: Rodric Braithwaite; Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; <phill_hanson@outlook.com>; <john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>; Richard
Connolly; <keith.bush017@gmail.com>; Roderic Lyne; <rghorvath@yahoo.com>; Elizabeth Teague; <Ian@cer.org.uk>; Bobo Lo;
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>; Klaus Segbers; <HansonPhl@aol.com>
Oggetto: Re: AM and DA at the HoC

DearSilvana,

I'mpuzzled:doyouthinkweshouldurgeourAmericanfriendsandacquaintancestovoteforTrump?Andthatweshouldhope
thatTrumpiselected?OramImissingsomething?

I'mgratefultoRodricforencouragingustoreadthetranscript(Ihavetoadmitthatitslengthdauntedme).Itcoverssomuch
territoryindetailthatIshallspareyouandshan'toffercomment.Obviouslythetwospecialistsareexceptionallywellinformedand
theirassessmentsstrikemeasdeeplyconsideredandjudicious.Inthemain.

ThepointthatinspeakingtotheRussiansoneneedstohaveaclearideaofwhatoneseekstoachieveseemstometimely--it
oughttobeobvioustoeveryonebutitisn't!

Gawd,wheredidthisKawczynskispringfrom?RTshouldrecruithim.HowunfairofDanilevskitoaccusethePolesofbeingthe
'SlavicJudases'.

ThattheFSBdecidedtosilenceLitvinenkowithoutseekingPutin'sagreementrunscountertoeverythingI'velearnedabouthow
Russiaworks.LitvinenkohadtobesilencedbecauseofknowledgehehadthatcoulddamagePutin.Thatisnotonlylogical:itis
theviewoftheonlypersonIknowwhoknowsPutinquitewell.

Andit'softenforgottenthattheoperationwasexposedbysheerchance:itmayhavebeencarriedoutclumsily,withthattrailof
PoloniumacrossEurope,buttheideawasingenious.AndhaditnotbeenforfortheacuityofaBritishscientistitwouldnothave
beenexposed.

Kyle

SentfrommyiPad

On11May2016,at17:53,SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>wrote:

Hagel,andperhapsotherW.DCrevisionists,seemtoagreewithsensibleAMandDA.s
http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnayapanorama/3271128-:
102016

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Da: Rodric Braithwaite [mailto:rqbraithwaite@mac.com]
Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 07:19
A: Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; phill_hanson@outlook.com; john.besemeres@anu.edu.au; ErcFried@aol.com;
Richard Connolly; keith.bush017@gmail.com; silvana.malle@univr.it; Roderic Lyne; rghorvath@yahoo.com; Rodric
Braithwaite; Elizabeth Teague; Ian@cer.org.uk; wilsonkyle81@gmail.com; Bobo Lo; carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se; Klaus
Segbers; HansonPhl@aol.com
Oggetto: Fwd: Item by Gleb Pavlovsky Word document

IdontthinkanyonehascommentedontheevidencebyAverreandMonaghamtowhichJuliandrewourattention.I
agreewithhim:theytalkalotofsense.ButIdbeinterestedinotherviewstoo.

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
Subject:RE:ItembyGlebPavlovsky-Worddocument
Date:7May2016at12:18:54BST
To:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,"phill_hanson@outlook.com"
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>
Cc:"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,"ErcFried@aol.com"
<ErcFried@aol.com>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,"keith.bush017@gmail.com"
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,"silvana.malle@univr.it"<silvana.malle@univr.it>,
"rodericlyne@hotmail.com"<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,"rghorvath@yahoo.com"
<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,"rqbraithwaite@mac.com"<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,
"teagueeliza@aol.com"<teagueeliza@aol.com>,"Ian@cer.org.uk"<Ian@cer.org.uk>,
"wilsonkyle81@gmail.com"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk"
<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,
"segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de"<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"
<HansonPhl@aol.com>

Iseereasonforgloomorexistentialdoubts.IthinkthearticletellsusmoreaboutPavlovskiithanitdoesaboutRussia
today.Havingreadhis2014bookSistemaRFvvoine2014goda.DePrincipataDebili,manysectionsarefamiliar,itlooks
likeacutandpastejobonthattextwithabitofupdating.ThebookistypicalGP-itisanintellectualgame,thebookbased
onthestructureofMachiavelli's(clearlyGP'shero)ThePrince.GPusedtoknowhowRussiaworked,hewasontheinside
asaconsultantcreatingthesistema,pullingthestringsandlevers,workingwithSurkovandotherswith,Isuspect,quite
considerabledegreesoffreedom,butbroadlywithinanunderstoodframeworkacceptabletoPutin.WithMedvedevas
PresidenthecarriedonuntilApril2011whenhewasbanished.HethenfelloutwithPutinashedisagreedwithhis
decisiontoreturnaspresident.HewasfrankaboutthiswhenImethim,inOslo,aboutthreeyearsago.Hewasclearly
embittered,asardonicoutsider,nolongerwithinfluence.Heisnotatheoretician.Hedoesnothaveanyconceptualrigour
evensistemaisnotdefinedinanyconsistent,intelligible,mannerinhisbook,orinthearticle,itismoreasentimentthan
astructuredsystemofpower.ButIfindhimengagingandalwaysworthreading,butnottounderstandRussiabetter.I
wouldnotworry,Stephen,carryonwithyourexcellentanalysisofdecisionmakingtowhichweareallindebted.

Tobringusdowntoearth,somequalityanalysisbytwoRussiaspecialists.Somemayfindthefollowingofinterest,Derek
AverreandAndrewMonaghangivingevidenceearlierintheweektotheHouseofCommonsForeignAffairsCommittee:
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/foreign-affairs-committee/the-uks-
relations-with-russia/oral/32880.html

Julian

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/11/201608:54:40AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:Silencingthefreepress:"RussialaunchesCRIMINALCASEagainstindepednentRBCmedia,"themoscowtimes.com,5/11

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,May11,20168:54AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:Silencingthefreepress:"RussialaunchesCRIMINALCASEagainstindepednentRBCmedia,"themoscowtimes.com,5/11

And:PutinSNUBS[i.e.,doesnottelephone]UkrainianandGeorgianpresidentsonVictoryday,
meduza.io,5/10

And:GEORGIAbeginsU.S.militaryledexercise,angeringRussia,reuters.com,5/11

And:U.S.preparestoswitchonMISSILESHIELDdespiteRussianprotests,themoscowtimes.com,
5/11

And:MashaGESSEN,op.ed.,PutinandtheBikers[NightWolves},nytimes.com,5/11.Russia
launchesofficialprotestsoverthefactthatPolandwouldnotpermittheNightWolvesontoits
territorytocelebrateMay9th.

And:PutindeclaresthatUkrainesenergyblockadeofCRIMEAhasbeenbroken:
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2983504

And:EvgeniiKISELEV,blog,HetmanMAZEPAand[RussianDuma]deputyYAROVAYA,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/kiselev/1762618echo/

LastweekPresidentPoroshenkounveiledamonumenttothefamousUkrainianHetmanMazepawho
isabominatedinRussia.UnitedRussiadeputyYarovayaproclaimedthatPoroshenkohasbetrayed
theUkrainianpeopleinunveilingthatmonument.

And:TheexchangeoftwoRussianGRUofficersforNadezhdaSAVCHENKOmaynothappen:
http://echo.msk.ru/news/1763150echo.html

And:TheGermanforeignministerhasannouncedthattherehasbeenNOBREAKTHROGHinthe
negotiationsoftheNormandyQuartet:http://www.rosbalt.ru/exussr/2016/05/11/1513470.html

And:BusinessmanMaksimFREIDZONrelateshowhepaidBRIBEStoVladimirPutin:
http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27728152.html

And:TRUMP[onMay7th]:PutincalledmeaGENIUS,straitstimes.com,5/9VIDEO

TrumptoldsupportersinSpokane,Washington,onSaturday(May7)thathehaddifferenceswith
partyleadersoverhisviewsonRussianpresidentVladimirPutin.PutinsaidTrumpisagenius,hell
bethenextleaderoftheUnitedStates,Mr.Trumptoldacrowdedarena.Wouldntitbeniceifwe
actuallygotalongwithRussia?

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 05/09/201602:22:17PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes9May2016
Attachments: IN9May16.docx

InternetNotes9May2016

StanovayawonderswhatPutinfears(Arevolutionoracoup?)

TheNationalGuardwillget120flamethrowers

PatrushevonthethreatfromrefugeesfromUkraine

ViktorIvanovremovedfromtheSecurityCouncil

Hiddenknowledgeorparanoia?(Soloveyontheelections)

InvestigativeCommitteesKrasnovispromoted(TheNemtsovcase)

PublicOpinionFoundationpollonpopularattitudestoPutin

PutinleadsImmortalregimentmarchinMoscow

Vostochniyfiring

ControversyoverPalmyraconcert

StanovayawonderswhatPutinfears(Arevolutionoracoup?)

http://slon.ru/posts/67598

TherehasbeenalotoftalkintheWestaboutacoup,abuntbypeopleinPutinsclosecircle.Theideaisthatsanctionscould
causediscontentinthePutineliteandthatwouldleadtoarevolt.Butithasnthappenedthesituationhasonlyincreasedlovefor
theboss.Sanctionseitherstrengthenedthedomesticsituationoropenedmoreaccessforstateordersandtostateaccounts.
DependenceonPutinhasonlyincreasedamongthoseinhisclosecircle.

IfPutinsfriendswillnotbetrayhim,thenwhocould?Maybethesiloviky.ThetheoryisthatPutincreatedtheNationalGuardto
protecthimselffromtheothersilovikyheisntsuretheywillremainloyalinthecaseofacoup.Putin,itssaid,hasbeen
suspiciousofShoygu.AndwecannotforgetabouttheFSB,theservicethatknowsabouteveryone,includingPutin.Patrushev,
Bastrylin,Naryshkin,theyhavetakenahardlineontheclashwiththeWestitwouldntbedifficulttoseethemaccusingPutinof
goingsoftinordertojustifyacoup.IsevenZolotovunquestionablyloyal?AlotcouldbesacrificedtosecureRussiashistorical
mission.
Butthisisnotconvincingthesiloviky,likePutinsfriends,dependonthepresident.Ifheisstronger,theyarestronger.IfPutinis
weakened,thatsathreattothem.Withoutaleader,thepresentsituationwouldlooklikethe90s
Sowhomightbeasystemicthreat,ifnotthefriendsandthesiloviky?TheanswermightbefoundinPutinseffortsinrecent
yearstonationalizetheelite,theintentbeingtoforcetheelitetobringtheirassetsandfamiliesbacktoRussiaandlimittravelling
abroadtheexplanationwasthattheWesternspecialservicescoulduseinformationonassetsandquestionablemoneyasalever
ofinfluenceforblackmail.SomaybePutinsfearisoftheelite(Comment:Shemeansoutsidehisclosecircle)notata
personallevel,butasaclass.Afterall,itisonlyasmallminoritythatistrulybeholdentothepresidentpersonally,thathasaccessto
thebody,andispreparedtomakesacrificesforhim.
TherestareadaptablePutinknowsverywelltheirtrueface.HowcanheforgetthatSurkovwasplayinggameswiththe
protestorsattheendof2011andthatMedvedevsidedwiththeGosdeponLibya?Butthemainweaklinkisbigbusiness:
MikhailFridman,whosupposedlyfinancesNavalniyProkhorov,whoownsindependentmediathatattacksPutinandhisfamily
SoPutinscirclecanexploithisfearsThetruetargetoftheanti-orangecampaignisnotsomuchrevolutionfrombelow,andnot
NavalniyandhisAnti-corruptionFoundation,buttheFridmansandProkhorovs.PutinisnotsomuchafraidofNavalniyasheis
ofsystemicforces.PutinbelievesthatthebulwarkofsupportforhimamongelitesisnotwhatitseemsandthesloganRussia
withoutPutinisnotonlythevoiceofthenon-systemicopposition,butis,inthemindsofmillionsofthosewhohavebeenthusfar
loyal,ascenariofortheinevitablefuture.
TheNationalGuardwillget120flamethrowers

Or,moretechnicallycorrect,rocketlaunchersthatuseaflammablecanister,calledasniperflamethrowerbythemilitary:

http://www.gazeta.ru/social/2016/05/05/8213969.shtml

Theweapons,settobedeliveredthisSeptember,wereorderedearlierfortheInternalTroopsandtheSOBRunitsbutwillnowgo
totheNatsguardTheMVDmadetheorderearliersothattheweaponscouldbeusedinanti-terroristoperationsThearticle
alsomentionssomesortofacousticequipmentalsopurchasedearlierbytheMVDthatissupposedtobeabletousesound
wavestoexertpressureonthecentralnervoussystemsofthoseitisusedagainsttheAnti-CorruptionFoundationsLyubov
Sobolsaysthisisobviouslymeanttobeusedagainstcrowdsatelectiontime

PatrushevonthethreatfromrefugeesfromUkraine
Comment:VlasthasbeenconcernedaboutthereturningfightersfromtheDonbassandtherehavebeenreportsofa
crimewaveinRostovrelatedtotheirreturn.Heresabitfromthe11September2015notesonthat:
[AsthefightinginEasternUkrainehassloweddown,theinfluxofillegalweaponsintoRostovOblasthasincreased.Crimesinwhichsuch
weaponshavebeenusedareupby12.5%...Inthefirstsevenmonthsofthisyear,therehavebeen501registeredcrimesconnectedtotheweapons
trade.FightersfromtheDonbasssaythatwhilebordercrossingcheckpointshavebeentightenedup,itsstillpossibletobringtheweaponsinto
Russia

PolitilogDmitriyOreshkincommentedonwhatsgoingonTheKremlinhasarealproblemwiththefightersandtheirweaponscomingfromthe
DonbassintoRussia.Theyunderstandwhatishappening:thebetrayaloftheDonbassandPutinsfreezingthesituationThedestroyed
territoriesoftheDonbassarehopelessforinvestmentanddependentonsubsidiesandPutinhasnointerestinsupportingthem.Thelogicistolet
Poroshenkodothat.SensiblepeopleunderstandthatbutthesupportersofNovorossiyaarenotsensiblepeople.TheDonbassseparatist
leaderscanpeacefullymovetoRussiaafterbeingreplacedbymoremoderatepeople(asPurginwasreplacedbyPushilinseeyesterdaysnotes,for
instance),butlowerlevelfieldcommandersandfightersdonthavethatoption.ButtheywillstillgotoRussia,withtheirweapons,becausethey
donothaveanyplaceelsetogo.SothereisarealthreatofagrowthofbanditismandproblemsfortheFSBthesepeoplewillnotobserveany
laws,justastheydidnotobserveanylawsintheDonbass,andtheFSBwilldealwiththefighters,whofeeltheyhavebeenbetrayed,harshly.The
sloganwillbeWedidntsendyouthere,soweoweyounothing.]

SpeakingataSecurityCouncilsessionheldinAstrakhan,PatrushevsaidthatthecriminalsituationintheSouthernOkrugis
growingmorecomplicatedbecauseofthepresencethereoftensofthousandsofrefugeesfromUkraine.Heespeciallypointedto
73,000unemployedrefugeesaspotentialsourcesoftrouble

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2979900

Comment:ButPatrushevwasntsimplythinkingofformerNovorossiyafightersPatrushevsaidtherehadbeenan
increaseofterrorismrelatedcrimesconnectedwithincitementtohatredandparticipationinillegalarmedformationsinSyria.
PatrushevcalledformeasurestodealwiththedestructiveactivitiesofradicalreligiouscentersandorganizationsHeadded
thattheregionsfuelandenergycomplexwasvulnerabletoterroristattack

ViktorIvanovremovedfromtheSecurityCouncil

Youcanseetheukazhere:http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001201605080002

Comment:RecallthattherewasonereportclaimingthatwhentheFSKNwasabolishedanditsfunctionsshiftedtothe
MVD,IvanovwassupposedtoheadthenewMVDdepartmentasaKolokoltsevdeputy,butdidntwantthejob,
seeingitasademotion.IdontthinkKolokoltsevwantedhim,either.
Hiddenknowledgeorparanoia?(Soloveyontheelections)

http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_17142%2Fall

Isitknowledgeorparanoia?Ifthepopulationreallyfavorsthepartyofpowerandthegovernment,whichbothhavehighand
stablepollratings,whydopreparationsfortheelectionsresembleapoliceoperation?Andwhyaretheyafraidoftheaftermathof
whatarebeingforeseen(byvlast)ashonestandcompetitiveelections,whilenotrulingoutaStateofEmergency?Eitherits
paranoiaorknowledgetheyarehidingfromus
InvestigativeCommitteesKrasnovispromoted(TheNemtsovcase)
http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.251075.html

IgorKrasnovhadheadedtheNemtsovmurderinvestigationwhenhewaspromotedearlier,backinMayof2015.Krasnovhas
beennamedadeputytoBastrykinasof30April.Amongotherchanges,PutinremovedtwooftheSKsdeputychairmen,Vasily
PiskarevandYuriNyrkov

PublicOpinionFoundationpollonpopularattitudestoPutin

http://fom.ru/Politika/12644

IsyourpersonalattitudetoPutinbetter,worse,orthesameasitwaswhenhewaselectedpresidentthefirsttimein2000?Worse
11%(26%inSeptember,2012)Better38%(10%inSeptemberof2012thepeakforthisanswerwas47%inAprilof
2008)Same42%(54%inSeptemberof2012)
In2012,whatwasyourattitudetoPutinsbeingelectedagain?Positive70%(48%inAprilof2013)Indifferent20%
(28%)Negative6%(18%)
IsPutinhandlinghisobligationsaspresidentbetter,worse,orthesameasinhisfirsttwoterms?Better48%(16%inAprilof
2013)Worse10%(16%)Same35%(56%)

Whatconcretesteps,decisions,orstatementsbyPutindidyoulikemostofalloverthepastyear?TheoperationinSyria
8%...Theannexation/developmentofCrimea7%...Putinssolvingproblemsbroughtupinhisdirectline5%...Concerns
aboutpeople/agoodsocialpolicy/peoplelivingbetter5%...Atoughpositionintheinternationalarena5%...IlikePutins
personalqualitiesthatinspiretrust4%...Ilikespecificstatementshehasmade3%...HisUkrainepolicy3%...Aidtodifferent
countries2%...Strengtheningthecountrysdefensecapability1%...Fightingcorruption1%...Hardtoanswer51%
Whatsteps,statements,ordecisionsofPutinsoverthepastyeardidyounotlike?Aidtoothercountries5%...Poorsocial
policy,lowlivingstandards4%...Higherprices2%...Inadequatecontroloverthebureaucracy2%...InterventioninSyria
1%...Therearelotsofotherresponsesat1%42%findithardtoanswer34%saytheylikeeverythingPutinhasdone

HasPutinmettheexpectationsyouhadforhimin2012?Yes69%(50%inAprilof2013)No19%(34%)

Havethemostseriouschangestakenplaceinthecountry,forbetterorworse,becauseofPutinorreasonsdependent/not
dependentonhim?ForbetterorworsebecauseofPutin26%(29%inSeptemberof2012)ForthebetterbecauseofPutin
fortheworsebecauseofreasonsnotdependentonhim38%(23%)FortheworsebecauseofPutinforthebetterbecauseof
reasonsnotdependentonhim4%(9%)EitherwaydidntdependonPutin16%(19%)
PutinleadsImmortalregimentmarchinMoscow

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=568739

RIANovosti/ReutersPresidentVladimirPutinholdsaportraitofhisfather,warveteranVladimirSpiridonovichPutin,whiletakingpartintheImmortalRegiment
marchonRedSquareonMay9,2015.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinledapublicprocessioninMoscowdedicatedtothe"ImmortalRegiments"anannualhomagetothegeneration
thatlostmorethan20millionpeopleinthefightagainstNazis,theRBCnewspaperreportedMonday.

Theeventmarksthe71stanniversaryoftheSovietUnion'svictoryinWorldWarII.

AfteramassiveVictoryDaymilitaryparadeonRedSquare,Putinledacolumnofseveralhundredthousandpeople.Hecarriedaphotographofhis
father,VladimirSpiridonovichPutin,whofoughtinWorldWarIIandwasseverelywounded,thestatenewsagencyTASSreported.
TheprocessionbeganattheDinamometrostationandendedonRedSquare.

TheImmortalRegimentgrassrootsmovementwasoriginallylaunchedintheSiberiancityofTomskin2012with6,000participantstakingpartinthe
firstprocessionthatyear.Soonafter,Russianofficialstookuptheideaandsetupacopycatmovementcalled"TheImmortalRegimentofRussia."
Theeventofficiallybecameall-Russianin2015.

Morethan500,000peopleparticipatedintheevent,accordingtotheMoscowpolice,thestatenewsagencyInterfaxreportedMonday.

TheprocessionalsotookplaceinotherRussiancitiesthelargestwasheldinNovosibirsk,withsome250,000peopleinattendance.Onthe
CrimeanPeninsula,theProsecutorGeneralNatalyaPoklonskayatookpartintheprocession.ShecarriedaphotographofTsarNicholasII,whowas
killedinYekaterinburg,togetherwithhisfamily,soonafterthe1917OctoberRevolution.

PutinalsoledtheImmortalRegimentprocessioninMoscowlastyear.TheRussianInteriorMinistryreportedthatin2015,over12millionpeople
participatedintheeventthroughoutthecountry.

Vostochniyfiring

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/failed-russian-rocket-launch-sees-top-official-fired/568292.html

BacklashfromthefailedrocketlaunchatRussia'sVostochnyCosmodromehasseenthedismissalofatop-rankingofficial.

LeonidShalimov,generaldirectorofthecompanyprovidingtherocket'scontrolsystems,becamethefirstofficialfiguretobedismissed
inconnectionwiththeincident.

HisdeparturewaslinkedtothefirstfailedattempttolaunchtheSoyuz2.1,theKommersantnewspaperreported,citingunidentified
sources.

TheSoyuzrocketwasscheduledtolaunchonApril27,butwasdelayedduetoproblemswiththestartingprocedure.Asuccessful
launchtookplaceonApril28.

Top-rankingofficialsthroughouttheRussianspaceagencyRoscosmos,arealsotobere-certifiedfollowingthefailure,Kommersant
reported.Anewlevelofbureaucraticstaffarealsotobeintroducedwithintheagency.

DmitryRogozin,deputyprimeministerandheadofthedefenseindustry,wasagainstShalimov'sfiring,accordingtoKommersant.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutin,whohadflowntoRussia'sFarEasttowatchthelaunch,publiclyreprimandedRogozinandthe
generaldirectorofRoscosmosIgorKomarov,alongsideLeonidShalimovthedayafterthefailedlaunch.

Putinorderedthecreationofaspecialcommissionof20industryexpertstoinvestigatethereasonsforthefailedlaunch.Theirreport
ultimatelyblamedfaultywiringwithintherocket'slaunchsystems.Itsfailureledafailsafeswitchtobetrippedinthefinalmoments
beforethelaunch.

Noonefromthecompany,includingthequalitycontrolinspectors,noticedtheerror,Kommersantreported.
Shalimov'scolleaguessignedanopenletterpleadingagainsthisdismissal,arguingthatthenewlaunchsystemhadtobeinstalledina
shortperiodoftime.

DeputydirectorMikhailTrapeznikovisnowsettofillShalimov'sformerpostasheadoftheScientificandProductionAssociationof
Automatics.

ControversyoverPalmyraconcert

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/britain-and-russia-in-diplomatic-spat-over-palmyra-concert/568310.html

AperformancebyaRussianorchestraintheruinsofPalmyrainSyriaonThursdayresultedinanexchangeofcausticremarksbetweenMoscow
andBritishdiplomats.

WhiletheWesternmediaimmediatelycriticizedtheevent,callingitpartoftheKremlin'scampaigntotrumpetRussia'smilitarytriumphinSyria,most
foreignpoliticiansremainedsilentorreservedintheircomments.

However,BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondslammedtheconcertasatastelessattempttodistractattentionfromthecontinuedsuffering
ofmillionsofSyrians,referringtoarecentairstrikeonarefugeecampinnorthernSyria,whichkilledatleast28civilians.Theoppositionblamed
thestrikesonSyriangovernmentforces,backedbyRussia.

Itshowsthattherearenodepthstowhichtheregimewillnotsink.ItistimeforthosewithinfluenceoverSyrianPresidentBasharAssadtosay
enoughisenough,"Hammondadded,AgenceFrancePressreported.

TheRussianForeignMinistryreactedwithsarcasm.

It'sverysadthatHammonddidn'tliketheconcert.Wewereallrunoffourfeettomakesurehelikedit,everythingwasdoneforhim,theministry's
spokeswomanMariaZakharovawasquotedassayingbytheRIANovostinewsagency.

Nowweknowthathedoesnotknowanythingaboutmusic,andnobodyisinterestedinhiscommentsanymore,Zakharovaadded.

TheconcertbyRussia'sfamedMariinskytheaterorchestrawasperformedinPalmyra'sRomanamphitheateronThursdayeveningtocelebratethe
liberationofthecityfromIslamicStatemilitantsbytheSyrianarmy.

TheperformancetitledWithaprayerfromPalmyra:Musicrevivestheancientwalls,wasledbytheconductorValeryGergievandalsofeatured
PresidentVladimirPutin'sclosefriend,cellistSergeiRoldugin.

TheRussiandelegationincludedCultureMinisterVladimirMedinskyandthedirectoroftheHermitagemuseumMikhailPiotrovsky.

PutinaddressedtheconcertbyvideofromSochi.Hethankedthemusiciansandsaidthatheconsiderstheeventasasignofgratitudetoallthose
whofightagainstterrorism,evenputtingtheirownlivesatrisk,theInterfaxnewsagencyreported.

TheIslamicStateisaterroristgroupbannedinRussia.

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 05/09/201602:22:17PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes9May2016
Attachments: IN9May16.docx

InternetNotes9May2016

StanovayawonderswhatPutinfears(Arevolutionoracoup?)

TheNationalGuardwillget120flamethrowers

PatrushevonthethreatfromrefugeesfromUkraine

ViktorIvanovremovedfromtheSecurityCouncil

Hiddenknowledgeorparanoia?(Soloveyontheelections)

InvestigativeCommitteesKrasnovispromoted(TheNemtsovcase)

PublicOpinionFoundationpollonpopularattitudestoPutin

PutinleadsImmortalregimentmarchinMoscow

Vostochniyfiring

ControversyoverPalmyraconcert

StanovayawonderswhatPutinfears(Arevolutionoracoup?)

http://slon.ru/posts/67598

TherehasbeenalotoftalkintheWestaboutacoup,abuntbypeopleinPutinsclosecircle.Theideaisthatsanctionscould
causediscontentinthePutineliteandthatwouldleadtoarevolt.Butithasnthappenedthesituationhasonlyincreasedlovefor
theboss.Sanctionseitherstrengthenedthedomesticsituationoropenedmoreaccessforstateordersandtostateaccounts.
DependenceonPutinhasonlyincreasedamongthoseinhisclosecircle.

IfPutinsfriendswillnotbetrayhim,thenwhocould?Maybethesiloviky.ThetheoryisthatPutincreatedtheNationalGuardto
protecthimselffromtheothersilovikyheisntsuretheywillremainloyalinthecaseofacoup.Putin,itssaid,hasbeen
suspiciousofShoygu.AndwecannotforgetabouttheFSB,theservicethatknowsabouteveryone,includingPutin.Patrushev,
Bastrylin,Naryshkin,theyhavetakenahardlineontheclashwiththeWestitwouldntbedifficulttoseethemaccusingPutinof
goingsoftinordertojustifyacoup.IsevenZolotovunquestionablyloyal?AlotcouldbesacrificedtosecureRussiashistorical
mission.
Butthisisnotconvincingthesiloviky,likePutinsfriends,dependonthepresident.Ifheisstronger,theyarestronger.IfPutinis
weakened,thatsathreattothem.Withoutaleader,thepresentsituationwouldlooklikethe90s
Sowhomightbeasystemicthreat,ifnotthefriendsandthesiloviky?TheanswermightbefoundinPutinseffortsinrecent
yearstonationalizetheelite,theintentbeingtoforcetheelitetobringtheirassetsandfamiliesbacktoRussiaandlimittravelling
abroadtheexplanationwasthattheWesternspecialservicescoulduseinformationonassetsandquestionablemoneyasalever
ofinfluenceforblackmail.SomaybePutinsfearisoftheelite(Comment:Shemeansoutsidehisclosecircle)notata
personallevel,butasaclass.Afterall,itisonlyasmallminoritythatistrulybeholdentothepresidentpersonally,thathasaccessto
thebody,andispreparedtomakesacrificesforhim.
TherestareadaptablePutinknowsverywelltheirtrueface.HowcanheforgetthatSurkovwasplayinggameswiththe
protestorsattheendof2011andthatMedvedevsidedwiththeGosdeponLibya?Butthemainweaklinkisbigbusiness:
MikhailFridman,whosupposedlyfinancesNavalniyProkhorov,whoownsindependentmediathatattacksPutinandhisfamily
SoPutinscirclecanexploithisfearsThetruetargetoftheanti-orangecampaignisnotsomuchrevolutionfrombelow,andnot
NavalniyandhisAnti-corruptionFoundation,buttheFridmansandProkhorovs.PutinisnotsomuchafraidofNavalniyasheis
ofsystemicforces.PutinbelievesthatthebulwarkofsupportforhimamongelitesisnotwhatitseemsandthesloganRussia
withoutPutinisnotonlythevoiceofthenon-systemicopposition,butis,inthemindsofmillionsofthosewhohavebeenthusfar
loyal,ascenariofortheinevitablefuture.
TheNationalGuardwillget120flamethrowers

Or,moretechnicallycorrect,rocketlaunchersthatuseaflammablecanister,calledasniperflamethrowerbythemilitary:

http://www.gazeta.ru/social/2016/05/05/8213969.shtml

Theweapons,settobedeliveredthisSeptember,wereorderedearlierfortheInternalTroopsandtheSOBRunitsbutwillnowgo
totheNatsguardTheMVDmadetheorderearliersothattheweaponscouldbeusedinanti-terroristoperationsThearticle
alsomentionssomesortofacousticequipmentalsopurchasedearlierbytheMVDthatissupposedtobeabletousesound
wavestoexertpressureonthecentralnervoussystemsofthoseitisusedagainsttheAnti-CorruptionFoundationsLyubov
Sobolsaysthisisobviouslymeanttobeusedagainstcrowdsatelectiontime

PatrushevonthethreatfromrefugeesfromUkraine
Comment:VlasthasbeenconcernedaboutthereturningfightersfromtheDonbassandtherehavebeenreportsofa
crimewaveinRostovrelatedtotheirreturn.Heresabitfromthe11September2015notesonthat:
[AsthefightinginEasternUkrainehassloweddown,theinfluxofillegalweaponsintoRostovOblasthasincreased.Crimesinwhichsuch
weaponshavebeenusedareupby12.5%...Inthefirstsevenmonthsofthisyear,therehavebeen501registeredcrimesconnectedtotheweapons
trade.FightersfromtheDonbasssaythatwhilebordercrossingcheckpointshavebeentightenedup,itsstillpossibletobringtheweaponsinto
Russia

PolitilogDmitriyOreshkincommentedonwhatsgoingonTheKremlinhasarealproblemwiththefightersandtheirweaponscomingfromthe
DonbassintoRussia.Theyunderstandwhatishappening:thebetrayaloftheDonbassandPutinsfreezingthesituationThedestroyed
territoriesoftheDonbassarehopelessforinvestmentanddependentonsubsidiesandPutinhasnointerestinsupportingthem.Thelogicistolet
Poroshenkodothat.SensiblepeopleunderstandthatbutthesupportersofNovorossiyaarenotsensiblepeople.TheDonbassseparatist
leaderscanpeacefullymovetoRussiaafterbeingreplacedbymoremoderatepeople(asPurginwasreplacedbyPushilinseeyesterdaysnotes,for
instance),butlowerlevelfieldcommandersandfightersdonthavethatoption.ButtheywillstillgotoRussia,withtheirweapons,becausethey
donothaveanyplaceelsetogo.SothereisarealthreatofagrowthofbanditismandproblemsfortheFSBthesepeoplewillnotobserveany
laws,justastheydidnotobserveanylawsintheDonbass,andtheFSBwilldealwiththefighters,whofeeltheyhavebeenbetrayed,harshly.The
sloganwillbeWedidntsendyouthere,soweoweyounothing.]

SpeakingataSecurityCouncilsessionheldinAstrakhan,PatrushevsaidthatthecriminalsituationintheSouthernOkrugis
growingmorecomplicatedbecauseofthepresencethereoftensofthousandsofrefugeesfromUkraine.Heespeciallypointedto
73,000unemployedrefugeesaspotentialsourcesoftrouble

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2979900

Comment:ButPatrushevwasntsimplythinkingofformerNovorossiyafightersPatrushevsaidtherehadbeenan
increaseofterrorismrelatedcrimesconnectedwithincitementtohatredandparticipationinillegalarmedformationsinSyria.
PatrushevcalledformeasurestodealwiththedestructiveactivitiesofradicalreligiouscentersandorganizationsHeadded
thattheregionsfuelandenergycomplexwasvulnerabletoterroristattack

ViktorIvanovremovedfromtheSecurityCouncil

Youcanseetheukazhere:http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001201605080002

Comment:RecallthattherewasonereportclaimingthatwhentheFSKNwasabolishedanditsfunctionsshiftedtothe
MVD,IvanovwassupposedtoheadthenewMVDdepartmentasaKolokoltsevdeputy,butdidntwantthejob,
seeingitasademotion.IdontthinkKolokoltsevwantedhim,either.
Hiddenknowledgeorparanoia?(Soloveyontheelections)

http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_17142%2Fall

Isitknowledgeorparanoia?Ifthepopulationreallyfavorsthepartyofpowerandthegovernment,whichbothhavehighand
stablepollratings,whydopreparationsfortheelectionsresembleapoliceoperation?Andwhyaretheyafraidoftheaftermathof
whatarebeingforeseen(byvlast)ashonestandcompetitiveelections,whilenotrulingoutaStateofEmergency?Eitherits
paranoiaorknowledgetheyarehidingfromus
InvestigativeCommitteesKrasnovispromoted(TheNemtsovcase)
http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/President/m.251075.html

IgorKrasnovhadheadedtheNemtsovmurderinvestigationwhenhewaspromotedearlier,backinMayof2015.Krasnovhas
beennamedadeputytoBastrykinasof30April.Amongotherchanges,PutinremovedtwooftheSKsdeputychairmen,Vasily
PiskarevandYuriNyrkov

PublicOpinionFoundationpollonpopularattitudestoPutin

http://fom.ru/Politika/12644

IsyourpersonalattitudetoPutinbetter,worse,orthesameasitwaswhenhewaselectedpresidentthefirsttimein2000?Worse
11%(26%inSeptember,2012)Better38%(10%inSeptemberof2012thepeakforthisanswerwas47%inAprilof
2008)Same42%(54%inSeptemberof2012)
In2012,whatwasyourattitudetoPutinsbeingelectedagain?Positive70%(48%inAprilof2013)Indifferent20%
(28%)Negative6%(18%)
IsPutinhandlinghisobligationsaspresidentbetter,worse,orthesameasinhisfirsttwoterms?Better48%(16%inAprilof
2013)Worse10%(16%)Same35%(56%)

Whatconcretesteps,decisions,orstatementsbyPutindidyoulikemostofalloverthepastyear?TheoperationinSyria
8%...Theannexation/developmentofCrimea7%...Putinssolvingproblemsbroughtupinhisdirectline5%...Concerns
aboutpeople/agoodsocialpolicy/peoplelivingbetter5%...Atoughpositionintheinternationalarena5%...IlikePutins
personalqualitiesthatinspiretrust4%...Ilikespecificstatementshehasmade3%...HisUkrainepolicy3%...Aidtodifferent
countries2%...Strengtheningthecountrysdefensecapability1%...Fightingcorruption1%...Hardtoanswer51%
Whatsteps,statements,ordecisionsofPutinsoverthepastyeardidyounotlike?Aidtoothercountries5%...Poorsocial
policy,lowlivingstandards4%...Higherprices2%...Inadequatecontroloverthebureaucracy2%...InterventioninSyria
1%...Therearelotsofotherresponsesat1%42%findithardtoanswer34%saytheylikeeverythingPutinhasdone

HasPutinmettheexpectationsyouhadforhimin2012?Yes69%(50%inAprilof2013)No19%(34%)

Havethemostseriouschangestakenplaceinthecountry,forbetterorworse,becauseofPutinorreasonsdependent/not
dependentonhim?ForbetterorworsebecauseofPutin26%(29%inSeptemberof2012)ForthebetterbecauseofPutin
fortheworsebecauseofreasonsnotdependentonhim38%(23%)FortheworsebecauseofPutinforthebetterbecauseof
reasonsnotdependentonhim4%(9%)EitherwaydidntdependonPutin16%(19%)
PutinleadsImmortalregimentmarchinMoscow

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=568739

RIANovosti/ReutersPresidentVladimirPutinholdsaportraitofhisfather,warveteranVladimirSpiridonovichPutin,whiletakingpartintheImmortalRegiment
marchonRedSquareonMay9,2015.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinledapublicprocessioninMoscowdedicatedtothe"ImmortalRegiments"anannualhomagetothegeneration
thatlostmorethan20millionpeopleinthefightagainstNazis,theRBCnewspaperreportedMonday.

Theeventmarksthe71stanniversaryoftheSovietUnion'svictoryinWorldWarII.

AfteramassiveVictoryDaymilitaryparadeonRedSquare,Putinledacolumnofseveralhundredthousandpeople.Hecarriedaphotographofhis
father,VladimirSpiridonovichPutin,whofoughtinWorldWarIIandwasseverelywounded,thestatenewsagencyTASSreported.
TheprocessionbeganattheDinamometrostationandendedonRedSquare.

TheImmortalRegimentgrassrootsmovementwasoriginallylaunchedintheSiberiancityofTomskin2012with6,000participantstakingpartinthe
firstprocessionthatyear.Soonafter,Russianofficialstookuptheideaandsetupacopycatmovementcalled"TheImmortalRegimentofRussia."
Theeventofficiallybecameall-Russianin2015.

Morethan500,000peopleparticipatedintheevent,accordingtotheMoscowpolice,thestatenewsagencyInterfaxreportedMonday.

TheprocessionalsotookplaceinotherRussiancitiesthelargestwasheldinNovosibirsk,withsome250,000peopleinattendance.Onthe
CrimeanPeninsula,theProsecutorGeneralNatalyaPoklonskayatookpartintheprocession.ShecarriedaphotographofTsarNicholasII,whowas
killedinYekaterinburg,togetherwithhisfamily,soonafterthe1917OctoberRevolution.

PutinalsoledtheImmortalRegimentprocessioninMoscowlastyear.TheRussianInteriorMinistryreportedthatin2015,over12millionpeople
participatedintheeventthroughoutthecountry.

Vostochniyfiring

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/failed-russian-rocket-launch-sees-top-official-fired/568292.html

BacklashfromthefailedrocketlaunchatRussia'sVostochnyCosmodromehasseenthedismissalofatop-rankingofficial.

LeonidShalimov,generaldirectorofthecompanyprovidingtherocket'scontrolsystems,becamethefirstofficialfiguretobedismissed
inconnectionwiththeincident.

HisdeparturewaslinkedtothefirstfailedattempttolaunchtheSoyuz2.1,theKommersantnewspaperreported,citingunidentified
sources.

TheSoyuzrocketwasscheduledtolaunchonApril27,butwasdelayedduetoproblemswiththestartingprocedure.Asuccessful
launchtookplaceonApril28.

Top-rankingofficialsthroughouttheRussianspaceagencyRoscosmos,arealsotobere-certifiedfollowingthefailure,Kommersant
reported.Anewlevelofbureaucraticstaffarealsotobeintroducedwithintheagency.

DmitryRogozin,deputyprimeministerandheadofthedefenseindustry,wasagainstShalimov'sfiring,accordingtoKommersant.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutin,whohadflowntoRussia'sFarEasttowatchthelaunch,publiclyreprimandedRogozinandthe
generaldirectorofRoscosmosIgorKomarov,alongsideLeonidShalimovthedayafterthefailedlaunch.

Putinorderedthecreationofaspecialcommissionof20industryexpertstoinvestigatethereasonsforthefailedlaunch.Theirreport
ultimatelyblamedfaultywiringwithintherocket'slaunchsystems.Itsfailureledafailsafeswitchtobetrippedinthefinalmoments
beforethelaunch.

Noonefromthecompany,includingthequalitycontrolinspectors,noticedtheerror,Kommersantreported.
Shalimov'scolleaguessignedanopenletterpleadingagainsthisdismissal,arguingthatthenewlaunchsystemhadtobeinstalledina
shortperiodoftime.

DeputydirectorMikhailTrapeznikovisnowsettofillShalimov'sformerpostasheadoftheScientificandProductionAssociationof
Automatics.

ControversyoverPalmyraconcert

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/britain-and-russia-in-diplomatic-spat-over-palmyra-concert/568310.html

AperformancebyaRussianorchestraintheruinsofPalmyrainSyriaonThursdayresultedinanexchangeofcausticremarksbetweenMoscow
andBritishdiplomats.

WhiletheWesternmediaimmediatelycriticizedtheevent,callingitpartoftheKremlin'scampaigntotrumpetRussia'smilitarytriumphinSyria,most
foreignpoliticiansremainedsilentorreservedintheircomments.

However,BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondslammedtheconcertasatastelessattempttodistractattentionfromthecontinuedsuffering
ofmillionsofSyrians,referringtoarecentairstrikeonarefugeecampinnorthernSyria,whichkilledatleast28civilians.Theoppositionblamed
thestrikesonSyriangovernmentforces,backedbyRussia.

Itshowsthattherearenodepthstowhichtheregimewillnotsink.ItistimeforthosewithinfluenceoverSyrianPresidentBasharAssadtosay
enoughisenough,"Hammondadded,AgenceFrancePressreported.

TheRussianForeignMinistryreactedwithsarcasm.

It'sverysadthatHammonddidn'tliketheconcert.Wewereallrunoffourfeettomakesurehelikedit,everythingwasdoneforhim,theministry's
spokeswomanMariaZakharovawasquotedassayingbytheRIANovostinewsagency.

Nowweknowthathedoesnotknowanythingaboutmusic,andnobodyisinterestedinhiscommentsanymore,Zakharovaadded.

TheconcertbyRussia'sfamedMariinskytheaterorchestrawasperformedinPalmyra'sRomanamphitheateronThursdayeveningtocelebratethe
liberationofthecityfromIslamicStatemilitantsbytheSyrianarmy.

TheperformancetitledWithaprayerfromPalmyra:Musicrevivestheancientwalls,wasledbytheconductorValeryGergievandalsofeatured
PresidentVladimirPutin'sclosefriend,cellistSergeiRoldugin.

TheRussiandelegationincludedCultureMinisterVladimirMedinskyandthedirectoroftheHermitagemuseumMikhailPiotrovsky.

PutinaddressedtheconcertbyvideofromSochi.Hethankedthemusiciansandsaidthatheconsiderstheeventasasignofgratitudetoallthose
whofightagainstterrorism,evenputtingtheirownlivesatrisk,theInterfaxnewsagencyreported.

TheIslamicStateisaterroristgroupbannedinRussia.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/09/201608:50:09AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[HISTORYWARSINFULLSWING]KP:VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives(responsetoJOSH
Subject:
C)......JamesKbacksVV:SovietorWestHardLeftVersionofWWIIhas'HolocaustWithouttheJews.....RUVICTORYDAY2016[OHBO
Attachments: Zhydobanderovtsy.jpg

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,May09,20168:19AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[HISTORYWARSINFULLSWING]KP:VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives(responsetoJOSH
C)......JamesKbacksVV:SovietorWestHardLeftVersionofWWIIhas'HolocaustWithouttheJews.....RUVICTORYDAY2016[OH
BOY...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:larysazariczniak<cymlala@hotmail.com>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at5:38AM
Subject:Viatrovych'sresponse
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

HiWaz,

Here'sViatrovych'sfullresponsetoCohen'sarticleinKP:http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/volodymyr-viatrovych-
real-and-fictional-history-in-ukraines-archives-413382.html

TwoQuotesfromVolodymyrV'sResponsetoJoshC:

[1]OneofCohen'sleadingargumentsisthatIam"whitewashing"UkrainianhistorybyincludingtheUkrainian
liberationmovementwithinUkraine'snationalhistoricalnarrativeandignoringit'sinvolvementintheHolocaustandthe
ethniccleansingofPolesduringtheSecondWorldWar.

Hecallsthisa"revisionisthistory"whileIwoulddisagree.DuringtheSovietUnion,thementionofthenationalists
wasautomaticallyassociatedwiththeNazis(eventhoughthetwowerenotthesamething)andtheHolocaustwas
almostcompletelySovietized-theJewswerenotthevictimsoftheHolocaustbutrather"Sovietcitizens"were(asis
statedonthememorialtothevictimsofBabiYarinKyiv).InnowayamI,ortheInstituteofNationalMemory,
falsifyingthe"narrativeoftheHolocaust",especiallywhenthatnarrativeisallbutforgotteninSovietUkrainian
historicaltexts.Ifanything,theInstitutehasworkedhardtoplacetheHolocaust-anditsmemory-backintothe
Ukrainiannationalhistoricalnarrativebyincludingitinpublicdisplaysanddiscussions.

[SEEJAMESK(BELOW)makeVV'spointforhimin'HolocaustwithouttheJews'][AlsonotewhatLubomyrL
sent:"....anti-SemiticandUkrainophobicimagecirculatedbytheRussians(captionreads:"Ukrainian
Nationalists")"]

[2]Cohensystematicallyignoresmorethan10yearsofhistorywheretheUkrainiannationwassplitbetweentwo
largercountries,devastatedbygenocide,thePacification,theGreatTerror,repressionandinter-ethnicstrife.
Yes,theOUNwasamilitantorganization-nohistoriandeniesthatfact.ButwhatCohenisdoingisdenyingthe
importanceoftheOUNtowesternUkrainianhistoryduringtheinterwarperiod-somethinghehimselfaccuses
meofdoingwiththememoryofRedArmysoldiers.I,northeInstituteofNationalMemory,aredenyingthe
"heroismoftheRedArmyduringWorldWarII"-themanycommemorationsandremembrancecelebrations
thatareincludedintheMay8-9festivitiesthroughoutUkraineareaindicationofthis.RedArmysoldierssat
side-by-sidelastyearwiththeveteransoftheUPAandneithergrouphadanyproblemwiththis.

[SEEREUTERSpieceonRUVictoryDayinMoscow2016ANDPutinUSMouthpieceMikeAverko's
scribblesonRU-UA-WWII(ALSOBELOW)]

VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives

VolodymyrViatrovychisthedirectoroftheUkrainianInstituteofNationalMemory.

Editor'sNote:Thefollowingisanop-edbyVolodymyrViatrovych,aUkrainianhistorian
researchingtheUkrainianindependencemovementandthedirectoroftheUkrainianInstitute
ofNationalRemembrancesinceMarch25,2014.ItisaresponsetoastorybyJoshCohenin
ForeignPolicy,headlined"ThehistorianwhitewashingUkraine'spast."Thewebsiteforthe
InstituteofNationalRemembranceishere.

Ioftentalkwithjournalistsfromdifferentcountries,publicationsandwithdifferentviews.
Themoreprofessionalthejournalist,thelesstheyshowtheirownpreferencesandtryto
listenandreflecttheopinionofthepersontheyaretalkingwith.Manyofwhomhave
questionsthatprovokeadiscussion.ButthequestionsposedbyjournalistJoshCohenare
certainlynotjournalisticbutratherthoseofaprosecutor.

AfterreadingseverallinesofhisinitialemailrequestformycommentsonFeb.25,Ialready
understood:heistalkingtomeasifIwastheaccused.Heasked:Howwouldyourespondto
Westernhistorians'allegationsthatyouoryourstaffhaveawillingnesstoignoreoreven
falsifyhistoricaldocuments?Andotherquestionsofthatnature.Adheringtodemocratic
standards,Cohengavemetheopportunitytojustifymyself:Wewouldwelcomeany
statementyouwouldliketomakeinresponsetotheseallegationssothattheymaybe
includedinthearticleForeignPolicyintendstopublishAsweareclosetopublication,I
wouldgreatappreciateareplyinthenexttwodays.

Despitetheangrytoneandtheaccusationsofitsintent(evidenceofactionswerenotfound
becausehehadnone)Ihaveprepareddetailedanswers,fragmentsofwhichtheyprinted.Not
inordertopresentmyheavilyeditedpointofview,butinordertocreatetheimpressionof
preservingbalanceinhiswork.

ItsnotthatImnewtosuchkindofscientificdebate.

TakethepiecebyJaredMcBridewiththerevealingtitle:HowUkrainesNewMemory
CommissarIsControllingtheNationsPast.AnditwasonlyafterreadingthepiecebyJeffrey
BurdsthatInotonlyfoundoutaboutmyso-calledfalsificationsorcensorship,butalso
learnedthatsomemajorfalsifyingoccursinamysterious898-pagebookthetitleofwhich
heunfortunatelyfailstomention.

IwassurprisedbythewordsofCanadianhistorianMarcoCarynnykabouthisproblemswith
accessingtheSBUarchivewhenIwasdirector.Perhaps,Cohenmisunderstoodhiswords
becausethereisaletterfromMarco(whoIhopewillforgivemeforbeingforcedinto
publishingourprivatecorrespondencefrom2010):Youknow,perhapsIdonotagreewith
yourevaluationofsomeaspectsofUkrainianhistory.ButIwillalwaysbegratefultoyoufor
thefactthatinthelastyearyougavemeaccesstothe(SecurityServiceofUkraine)SBU
archives.Andthiswasnotpreferentialtreatment.WhenIheadedtheSBUarchives,forthe
firsttimeeverpeoplewereensuredequalaccess.

StanislavSerhiyenko,aUkrainianhistorian,representstheangeredcolleaguesfromUkrainein
Cohenswork.Icouldnotrecallafamoushistorianwiththatname.Why?Iunderstoodafter
receivingaFacebookmessagefromthedirectoroftheSBUarchivesAndriyKohut.Stanislav
Serhiyenkoisaleft-wingstudentactivist,aregularcontributorthepro-Russianpublication
Gazeta2000,financedbytheFoundationnamedforthescandalousOlesBuzina.Kohutalso
saidthat,contrarytowhathetoldCohen,Serhiyenkonevercomplainedtothearchivestaff
aboutnothavingaccesstothearchives.

Whatisequallystrangeistheauthorstextisfullofmistakesanddistortions.Herearejusta
few:IbecamethedirectoroftheCenterforResearchoftheLiberationMovementin2002and
notin2006(thisisanimportantdetailbecauseitdemonstratestheauthor'snegligence,he
didn'tevencheckWikipedia)underPresidentViktorYushchenkostreetnameswerenot
renamedafterleadersoftheOrganizationofUkrainianNationalists(OUN)andUkrainian
InsurrectionArmy(UPA).Andonthoseoccasionstheywere,therewasneveranydirect
involvementfromthepresident.

Likewise,CohensclaimthatIdefendedthesoldiersoftheWaffenSSGaliciaDivisioncannot
besubstantiatedbyanyexamples.InsteadIwriteaboutthemasvictimsofwar,Ukrainians
mobilizedbyhostilepropagandatofightforsomeoneelse'spurpose.Finally,itwasnotthe
presidentwhoappointedmethedirectoroftheUkrainianInstituteofNationalMemory(and
notmyMemoryInstituteasCohenputsit),ratherthiswasdonebyagovernmentdecree.At
thetimeofmyappointment(March25,2014)PetroPoroshenkowasnotyetpresident.
Therefore,tosayheenlistedthesupportofnationalistforcesisridiculous.Moreover,Iamnot
amemberofanypoliticalparty.

Thedeepertheauthorgetsintohistory,themoreerrorsthereare.Witheasehestates
unconfirmedfigures:70-100,000Poleswere"killedbytheUPA".Thesewerethefigures
quotedinpoliticalstatementsbutthereisnoscientificstudybasedonsources,oratthevery
leastreliablemethodologyincalculatingthesenumbers.

Theoriginofthefigureof"35,000JewskilledbynationalistsinwesternUkraine"isalso
unclear.It'sthenumberyoucan'tfindintheworksofeventhosehistorianswhoarethe
heaviestcriticsofOUN.

Cohenisaseasewithhisuseofnumbers,justasheiswithhissources.

Thesupposed"order"byKlyachkyvskiyaboutthe"destructionofallPolesage16to60"was
deemedafake.

OneofCohen'sleadingargumentsisthatIam"whitewashing"Ukrainianhistorybyincluding
theUkrainianliberationmovementwithinUkraine'snationalhistoricalnarrativeandignoring
it'sinvolvementintheHolocaustandtheethniccleansingofPolesduringtheSecondWorld
War.

Hecallsthisa"revisionisthistory"whileIwoulddisagree.DuringtheSovietUnion,the
mentionofthenationalistswasautomaticallyassociatedwiththeNazis(eventhoughthetwo
werenotthesamething)andtheHolocaustwasalmostcompletelySovietized-theJews
werenotthevictimsoftheHolocaustbutrather"Sovietcitizens"were(asisstatedonthe
memorialtothevictimsofBabiYarinKyiv).InnowayamI,ortheInstituteofNational
Memory,falsifyingthe"narrativeoftheHolocaust",especiallywhenthatnarrativeisallbut
forgotteninSovietUkrainianhistoricaltexts.Ifanything,theInstitutehasworkedhardto
placetheHolocaust-anditsmemory-backintotheUkrainiannationalhistoricalnarrativeby
includingitinpublicdisplaysanddiscussions.

ThehistoryoftheUkrainianliberationmovementalsocannotbesimplifiedintoacoupleof
paragraphsthatindicateitscreationin1929andinvolvementinthewarin1941.

Cohensystematicallyignoresmorethan10yearsofhistorywheretheUkrainiannationwas
splitbetweentwolargercountries,devastatedbygenocide,thePacification,theGreatTerror,
repressionandinter-ethnicstrife.Yes,theOUNwasamilitantorganization-nohistorian
deniesthatfact.ButwhatCohenisdoingisdenyingtheimportanceoftheOUNtowestern
Ukrainianhistoryduringtheinterwarperiod-somethinghehimselfaccusesmeofdoingwith
thememoryofRedArmysoldiers.I,northeInstituteofNationalMemory,aredenyingthe
"heroismoftheRedArmyduringWorldWarII"-themanycommemorationsandremembrance
celebrationsthatareincludedintheMay8-9festivitiesthroughoutUkraineareaindicationof
this.RedArmysoldierssatside-by-sidelastyearwiththeveteransoftheUPAandneither
grouphadanyproblemwiththis.

CohenonlyhadtoglimpseattheYouTubefootageofthe2015RemembranceDayconcertin
Kyivtounderstandthis.WhatCohenhasaslightgriponistheproblemofUkrainianhistory-
easternUkrainianhistoryandwesternUkrainianhistorywereneveridenticalandonecannot
pleaseonegroupoveranother.IfUkrainianhistoriansdidwhatCohensuggested,than
westernUkrainianhistorywouldbeleftoutofthenationalhistoricalnarrative(whichis
consequently,whatoccurredintheSovietUnion).Therefore,whileheclaimsthatinLuhansk
andtheeastIam"ignoringhalfthepopulation",whatheissuggestingisalsoignoringthe
otherhalf.WhatI,andtheInstituteareworkinghardondoingisadvocatingforaunited
nationalhistoricalnarrativeinwhichallhistoricalactivitiesofallUkrainiansarementioned-
nationalist,communistandeventhoseoftheDiasporaUkrainianswhofoughtintheAllied
forcesonthebeachesofNormandy,inMonteCassinoandthePacificTheatre.

CohenfurthersimplifiesthehistoryofUkraineduringtheSecondWorldWarintoavery
"Soviet"viewpoint.Ukrainiansdidkillothernationalities,butalsokilledotherUkrainians
justthesameasothernationalitieskilledeachotherandUkrainiansinhorribleways.The
historyofUkraineduringtheSecondWorldWarcannotbeglimpsedinsuchasimpleandblack
andwhitepicture.

Forexample,theOUN-UPAdidnotcollaboratewiththeGermansortheSoviets.Therewere
individualpactsofunderstandingbetweenallthreebutitwasneversystematic.Recordseven
indicatethatRedArmysoldierswarnedUPAunitsaboutincomingNKVDtroopswhenthe
UkrainianFrontwaspushingwestwardthroughoutUkraine.

TheaccusationsthattheOUNandtheUPAcollaboratedisxenophobia,theirparticipationin
theHolocaustandethniccleansingischaracteristicofSoviethistoriographyandpropaganda,
andistothisdaysupportedbyanumberofresearchersintheWest(includingthosereferred
toinCohensarticlelikeHimka,CarynnykandBurds).Butthejournalistpresentshisviewsas
theonlycorrectversionofevents.Therefore,attemptstoopposetheirviews,basedonnewly
discovereddocumentsisdeplorable"revisionism".

ThesewordshaveaclearassociationforWesternreaderswithHolocaustdenial.Theyare
usedinbrandinghundredsofmodernUkrainianandforeignresearchersthatcharacterizethe
activitiesoftheUPAandtheOUNaspartoftheUkrainianLiberationMovement,amovement
whichfoughtagainstbothtotalitarianregimes-thecommunistsandtheNazis.

Furthermore,CoheninsiststhattheOUNtookanactiveparticipationinthe1941Jewish
pogrominLviv.TherearenoOUNdocumentstosuggestsuchanactiveparticipationofthe
Organizationduringthistime.Again,individualmembersoftheOUNdidtakepartbutthe
OrganizationwasmorefocusedonannouncingtheJune30,1941ActofRestoringUkrainian
independence.Also,whileitistruethatUkrainiansdidtakepartinthekillingofJewsin
UkraineduringtheHolocausttheexactnumberisstillunidentifiedandiscertainlynogreater
thanthenumberofothernationalitieswhoalsocollaboratedintheHolocaustwiththe
Germans.OUNmembersalsosavedhundredsofJewsfromGermanexecutioners-oneof
thembeingOlenaViter,aGreek-Catholicnun,OUNmemberandaRighteousAmongthe
Nations.

WhatCohencertaindoesunderstandistheimportanceofthe"consolidationofUkrainian
democracy"which"requiresthecountrytocometogripswiththedarkeraspectsofitspast"
butthatcanonlybedonewithUkrainiansunderstandallsidesoftheirnationalhistoryand
notjusttheone-sidedheavilySovietizedversionofUkrainianhistory.Ukrainiansneedto
cometotermswithoneofthemostcomplexhistoricalexperiences(andnightmares)that
occurredduringtheSecondWorldWarontheirterritory-anexperiencethatdifferedregionally
butalsolocallyandevenwithinfamilies.ThatisimportantachievementofUkraine's
historians.Nomatterwhattopictheywriteabout,theynowhavetheabilitytowriteaboutit
inafree,democraticandcriticalway(evenwiththeluxuryofhavingitopenlycriticized).

ThemostimportantconclusiondrawnbythearticlepublishedbyForeignPolicyisthat
historicalcensorshipandtherewritingofhistoryisintroducedbyrestrictingaccesstothe
archives.Anumberofresearchersexpressedsuchconcernspriortotheintroductionofthe
decommunizationlaw.Ayearhaspassedandtherehavebeennocasesofrestrictionsof
academicfreedomoraccess.Becausethelawdoesnotcontainthetoolstodoso.Incontrast,
thenumberofusersaccessingtheoldKGBarchiveshassignificantlyincreased,amongthem
havebeenresearchersfromoutsideUkraine(forexample,AmirWeiner,LynneViola,Anne
Applebaum).AtthesametimethenumberofUkrainiansaccessingthearchiveshasgrownby
almost50percent.

ThetransferofhistoricaldocumentsfromtheSecurityServices,theForeignIntelligence
Services,theMinistryofInterior,wouldnotonlyrelievethemoftheextraworkholdingthem,
butitalsoallowsforthedocumentstobeprocessedbyhistoriansandarchivists,insteadof
law-enforcementofficials.

Andfurthermore,thetransfer(whichbythewayisonlybeingpreparedforandhasnottaken
place,asCohenincorrectlywrites)isanimportantelementofthegeneraldemocratic
transformationofapost-totalitariansociety.

TheInternationalCouncilonArchivesrecommends:"Recordsproducedoraccumulatedby
formerrepressivebodiesmustbeplacedunderthecontrolofthenewdemocraticauthorities
attheearliestopportunityandtheseauthoritiesmustassesstheholdingsindetail.()The
securitybodiesmustensurethetransferofselectedfilesanddocumentseithertothe
nationalarchives,totheinstitutionsdealingwithcompensationorreparationforvictimsof
therepressionandpurgingofformerofficials,ortotheTruthCommissions."

Thiswaswhyspecialarchivallawswereadoptedlastyearwhichalreadyoperatein11post-
communistcountriesinEasternEurope(Poland,CzechRepublic,Slovakia,Hungaryand
Romaniaandetc.)

Theopeningofthecommunistsecretservicearchivesisthemainguaranteeagainstthestate
imposingonesingleviewofthepast,or,furthermore,oneoftheguaranteesofdemocratic
development.ThatiswhyUkrainechosetofollowtheexperienceofitsneighborsafterthe
Euromaidan.

OtherwiseweriskfacingwhatisalreadyhappeningeastwardofUkraine.TheclosedRussian
archives(whichwererecentlyputunderthedirectcontrolofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin)
becamethefoundationfortherehabilitationoftotalitarianismandareusedforthispurpose
today.

Butthisisanother,realstoryabouttherewritingofthepastandtheuseofarchives.Theone
thatfailedtoattractJoshCohensattention.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JamieKirchick<jkirchick@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at10:01AM
Subject:TheHolocaustwithoutJews[ED:ItstartedwiththeCCCP'sVersionofWWII]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

HowtheregressiveleftsnewcampaignagainstHillaryClintonrepresentsthecannibalizingofAmericanliberalism

Viewthisemailinyour
browser

TheHolocaustwithoutJews

AttemptstouniversalizethespecificsufferingofJewsintheShoahgohandinhandwitheffortstode-
legitimizetheJewishstate

ByJamesKirchick|May3,2016

OnThursday,IsraelwillmarkHolocaustRemembranceDay,YomHaShoah.Ashasbeenthecustomfor
oversixdecades,a2-minuteairraidsirenwillbeblaredacrosstheentirecountryandcitizensfromall
walksoflifewillinterrupttheirdailyroutinesforamomentofsolemnreflection.Jan.27ofthisyearalso
markedthedecadeanniversaryoftheUnitedNations-designatedInternationalHolocaustRemembrance
Day,whichmemberstatesareencouragedtocommemorate.ThoughanIsraeliinitiative,International
HolocaustRemembranceDayhasgraduallybeensubjectedtotheuniversalizingprescriptionsofthose
whowouldwaterdowntheparticularlyJewishaspectoftheNaziexterminationoftheJews.

TheevolutionoftwodifferentdaysofHolocaustcommemorationandthewaystheyincreasinglyrun
countertoeachotheraresymptomaticoftheseizureofJewishhistoryandsufferingforulteriorpurposes.
ThisvictimdisplacementappropriatesthemosttraumaticexperienceinJewishhistory,pointedlyerases
thespecificityoftheeventssupposedlybeingcommemorated,andthenharshlychidesJewsforinserting
theirownparticularisticconcernsintothediscussion.Atacertainpoint,thesephenomenabecomea
continuationofaspecificformofoppressionanderasureratheranantidotetohatred.

TocontinuereadingthisessayinTablet,pleaseclickhere.

Copyright2016JamesKirchick,Allrightsreserved.
YouarereceivingthisemailbecauseyouareonjournalistJamieKirchick'smailinglist.

Ourmailingaddressis:

JamesKirchick

DistrictofColumbia

Washington,DC20009

Addustoyouraddressbook

Wanttochangehowyoureceivetheseemails?
Youcanupdateyourpreferencesorunsubscribefromthislist

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Mon,May9,2016at10:08AM
Subject:REUTERS:RussiashowcasesSyriahardwareinRedSquaremilitaryparade
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

ED:KEYQUOTEFROMREUTERSITEM[LookingforYaltaII&beingcalledonitpickingonthePolesandUkes
fornotbuyingtheRussianversionofWWII]:

"Putin,inhisspeech,largelyconfinedhisremarkstotheimportanceofthewartimevictory.Buthealsospokeoftheneed
tofightglobalterrorismandtocooperatewithothernationstodothat.

"Terrorismhasbecomeaglobalthreat,"saidPutin."Wemustdefeatthisevil.AndRussiaisopentounitingeffortswith
othergovernments,isreadytoworkonthecreationofamodernnon-blocsystemofinternationalsecurity."

StatemediacriticizedgovernmentsinUkraineandPolandintherun-uptotheparadeforsystematicallydismantling
wartimemonumentsinhonorofSovietforces,accusingthemofdishonoringthetroopswholiberatedthemfromthe
Nazis.

Rulingpoliticiansinbothcountriesdisagree,sayingSoviettroopswereoccupiers.Themonumentsarebeingpulled
downaspartofade-communisationdrive,theysay.

VladimirNorosov,90,aSovietveteraninMoscowfortheparade,saidhewasangeredbysuchremarks.

"Wefoughttogether,myselfandmyPolishbrothers,"hetoldReuters."Howmanypeoplediedfightingtoliberatethat
country?Whattheyaredoingnowisdisgraceful."

RussiashowcasesSyriahardware

inRedSquaremilitaryparade

MOSCOW|BYANDREWOSBORNANDJACKSTUBBS

RussiarolledoutanairdefensemissilesystemofthekindusedtoprotectitsbaseinSyriaandsomeoftheRussianjetsflying
missionstherescreamedoverheadasitshowcaseditsmilitarywarmachineonMoscow'sRedSquareonMonday.

Thegrandparade,anannualfixturecommemoratingtheSovietUnion'svictoryovertheNazisinWorldWarTwo,tookplacein
brightsunshineasPresidentVladimirPutinlookedonfromatribunefilledwithSovietwarveterans,someofwhomworerowsof
campaignmedalsandclutchedredroses.

TheRussianleader,whoseforcesannexedUkraine'sCrimeain2014andarenowhelpingSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad's
army,watchedasthousandsoftroopsmarchedacrossthecobbledsquaretothestrainsofmartialmusic.

Theauthorities,backedbystatemedia,usetheeventtoencouragepatriotism,reinforcenationalidentity,forgeopoliticalpoint
scoring,andtounderscoretheimportanceofhavingastrongmilitarytoprotectthecountry'sborders.

"It(thecommemoration)hasbecomeasymbolofsacredclosenessbetweenRussiaanditspeople,"Putintoldtheparade."Andin
suchunityandloyaltytothemotherlandliesourstrength,ourconfidence,andourdignity."

TheKremlinalsonowusestheeventtoshowhowamulti-billiondollarmodernizationprogramischangingthefaceoftheRussian
militarywithnewweaponsandhardware.

SomepoliticiansinformerSovietrepublicsorsatellitestatesregardtheparadeascrudesabre-rattlingbyaresurgentRussiathey
sayposesathreattoEurope'ssecurity.Russiadismissessuchallegationsasnonsense.

SYRIANHARDWARE

ColumnsoftanksfollowedthetroopsasdidtheadvancedS-400airdefensemissilesystem,whichisdeployedinSyriatoprotect
theRussianairbasethere.Russia'slatestYarsmobileintercontinentalnuclearmissilelauncherwasalsoonshow.

RELATEDVIDEO

Russiamarkswaranniversary

ScoresofmilitaryaircraftflewoverRedSquare,includingjetswhichemittedmulti-coloredsmoketotracethered,blueandwhite
colorsoftheRussianflaginthesky.

Putin,inhisspeech,largelyconfinedhisremarkstotheimportanceofthewartimevictory.Buthealsospokeoftheneedtofight
globalterrorismandtocooperatewithothernationstodothat.

"Terrorismhasbecomeaglobalthreat,"saidPutin."Wemustdefeatthisevil.AndRussiaisopentounitingeffortswithother
governments,isreadytoworkonthecreationofamodernnon-blocsystemofinternationalsecurity."

StatemediacriticizedgovernmentsinUkraineandPolandintherun-uptotheparadeforsystematicallydismantlingwartime
monumentsinhonorofSovietforces,accusingthemofdishonoringthetroopswholiberatedthemfromtheNazis.
Rulingpoliticiansinbothcountriesdisagree,sayingSoviettroopswereoccupiers.Themonumentsarebeingpulleddownaspartof
ade-communisationdrive,theysay.

VladimirNorosov,90,aSovietveteraninMoscowfortheparade,saidhewasangeredbysuchremarks.

"Wefoughttogether,myselfandmyPolishbrothers,"hetoldReuters."Howmanypeoplediedfightingtoliberatethatcountry?
Whattheyaredoingnowisdisgraceful."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at2:55AM
Subject:Russian-UkrainianIntricacies[ED:PUTIN'SMOUTHPIECESPEAKSAGAIN.....GOESAFTERALEX
MOTYL]
To:

EurasiaReview-http://www.eurasiareview.com-http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/michael-averko/

Monday,May9,2016-http://www.eurasiareview.com/09052016-ongoing-russian-ukrainian-intricacies-analysis/

OngoingRussian-UkrainianIntricacies

byMichaelAverko

DiversityAmongRussiansandUkrainians

It'sdifficult(ifnotimpossible)foranessaytofullycoveralloftherelatedRussian-Ukrainiancomplexities.Hence,
articlesonthesubjectathandservetoencourageafollow-up.AlexanderClapp'slengthyApril25National
Interestarticle"HowtoJoinaUkrainianMilitia"hassomekeyomissions.

AmongthemisNadiyaSavchenko'sassociationwiththeAidargroup,whichClappdescribesastheleastreputableof
Ukrainiannationalistmilitias.WhencomparedtoClapp,someothersourcesaremorenegativeonthatmilitia.
UncriticallylaudedbytheObamaadministrationandsomeotherWesternofficialdom,SavchenkoreceivedWestern
attentionafterherincarcerationinRussia,whereshe'sservingacontroversialsentenceforcomplicityinthekillingof
twoRussianjournalistsineasternUkraine.(SavchenkoandAidararediscussedinmyStrategicCulture
FoundationpieceofthispastMarch17.)

SomeoftheUkrainiannationalistsopposetheEU-somethingthatClappdoesn'treallygetinto.Henotessome
sociallyconservativethinkingintheUkrainiannationalistmilitias,whichgreatlyexplainstheiroppositiontothe
comparativelymoreliberalmindedEU.

ConcerningtheUkrainiannationalistmilitias,issuecanbetakenwiththedegreeofpro-Polishsentimentexpressedin
Clapp'sarticle.OleksandrMuzychko,aslaincloseconfidantofformerRightSectorleaderDmytroYarosh,openly
statedanti-Polishviews,alongwithnegativecommentsaboutRussiansandJews.Lesserknownfolkshavesaidthe
sameaswell.Bynomeanscomplete,thePolishsupportforUkrainiannationalistsisn'twithoutsecondguessingin
Poland.ThisapprehensionhastodowiththecontemporaryUkrainiannationalistlaudingoftheOUN/UPA/Bandrea
legacy,whichviolentlyopposedPolandforaperiodpriortoandduringWWII.

Withsomevalidity,Clappsaysthatmuchofthepresentdaypro-StepanBanderasentimentisignorantlypremised
anddoesn'tinitselfalwaysreflectextremistthinking.Withoutbeingsubstantivelycontested,suchignoranceon
Banderaandtheextremists(amonghissupporters)canleadtomoreprovocativecommentsandaction.Priorto
Hitler'spoliticalascendancy,Germansenmassewereconsideredoneofthemoreculturedandeducatedofpeoples.

Inalternativemedia,therecentlyappointedheadofUkraine'sRada(parliament)AndriyParubiy,hasbeen
criticallyassessedforhisextremistviews.Incontrast,someothershighlighthischange(overthelastfewyears)to
adifferentpoliticalgroupingasamoderatingchange.Notwithstanding,it'sstillwithinreasontoregardParubiy
withsuspicion.

TherecentappointmentofVolodymyrGroysmanasUkrainianprimeminister,hasincludedareferencetohisJewish
origin.HispredecessorArseniyYatsenyukhassomeJewishbackground.JewsareamongtheprominentUkrainian
oligarchsinvolvedwiththeKievregime.Onecanfindvaryinginstancesofanti-JewishbehaviorinRussia,Ukraineand
theWest.Thelevelofthisbehaviorvaries.AstheSovietUnionwasbreakingupandthereafter,someJewish
organizationsandindividualshavelaudedthevastlyimprovedconditionforJewsinRussia.Likewise,Ukrainehas
receivedsomekudosonthatparticular.

Moresothaninthepast,moderndayhumanrightschallengesaremorelikelytoincludelessofananti-Jewish
message,onaccountoftheeffortsmadeinhighlightingandcondemninganti-Jewishbehavior,inconjunctionwith
intolerantforceshavingothertargetsfordisdain.Withthisinmind,thetrumpingofgoodconditionsforJewscan
servetocover-upotherhumanrightsabuses.(RetiredIsraeliGeneralEphraimSnehlaudsAzerbaijan'streatmentof
Jews,asabasisforgoodAzeri-Israelirelations.Meantime,Azerbaijanhasbeenthesubjectofnumeroushuman
rightsrelatedcriticism.)

Whendownplayingthelevelofanti-JewishmannerinKievregimecontrolledUkraine,theUkrainianPresidentPetro
PoroshenkofalselyclaimedthatJewsinCrimea(sinceitsreunificationwithRussia)arebarredfromattending
synagogueservices.ThelikesofEuromaidanPressandStopFakeprobablydidn'tmentionPoroshenko's
aforementionedfallacy.

TheacclaimedUSjournalistRobertParry,hasemphasizedthesuppressionofethnicRussiansinKievregimecontrolled
Ukraine.Thisistoobroadofacharacterizationwhichservesaspropagandafodderforpro-Kievregimeadvocates,
whoseektodiscreditthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianposition.ThiscanbedonebynotingthatRussianis
spokeninKievregimecontrolledUkraine,withsomeethnicRussiansexpressingsupportfortheKievregimeover
Russia.

Foraccuracysake,Parryandsomeothersshouldemphasizethatthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianstanceisheld
bysomeethnicUkrainians.TheEuromaidansuspectDonbassregionismostlypopulatedwithpeoplelistedasethnic
Ukrainian.Inadditiontopersonalaccounts,pollingindicatesthatmostofCrimea'sethnicUkrainianpopulationsupport
thatarea'sreunificationwithRussia.SinceCrimea'sreunificationwithRussia,asmallpercentageofCrimeanresidents
haveleftforUkraine.Duringthisperiod,agreaternumberhavemigratedfromUkrainetoRussiathanvice-versa.

UkrainianbornethnicUkrainiansVladimirMedinskyandValentinaMatviyenkoareappointedRussiangovernment
officials.There'sthematterofpoliticaldivisionamongfamilieswithformerUkrainianSovietSocialistRepublicroots,
asnotedinAlexeiPankin'sApril20RussiaInsiderarticle"Ukraine'sFM'sFather-In-LawIsRussianGeneralWhoHelped
ReuniteCrimeaWithRussia".

ClappexplainstheethnicRussianparticipationintheUkrainiannationalistmilitiasasanoppositiontotheRussian
government.TheseRussianscomeacrossasindividualswho'retheoppositeofconstructivelycriticalpro-Russian
advocates.Theirpositionsidestepsnumerousanti-RussianbiasesevidentinKievregimecontrolledUkraine(someof
whicharedescribedinmyJuly7,2014GlobalResearcharticle,inadditiontosomeofmycommentaryin
theStrategicCultureFoundationandEurasiaReviewvenues).

There'reinterestingtwistsandturnsregardingthefightersintheUkrainiannationalistmilitias.Asanexample,
BelarusianAzovmilitiafighterSergeiKorotkikh,oncebelongedtoapartythatsoughttorestoretheRussian
Empire.Severalsourceshavedescribedhimasaneo-Nazi.

IrespectfullyquestionClapp'sclaimthatapproximatelyhalfoftheAidarmilitiaareethnicRussians.AnearlierBBC
piecenotesaChechen(notethnicRussian)presenceinthatmilitia.ClappquotesAidarfightersinvokingthenameof
Allah.CouldClappbelumpingtogetherChechenRussiannationalswithethnicRussians?OnthesubjectofChechens
fightinginUkraine,thereferencedBBCpieceandsomeothersourcessaythatthisethnicgrouphasbeenmore
evidentonthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-RussianleaningDonbassrebelsidethantheKievregime's.

ThePredominatingNorthAmericanAcademia/MediaSlant

Howhistoryistaughtcangreatlyinfluencesomepeople,whodon'tactivelyseekotherperspectivesinfull.It'squite
ironicwhenit'speriodicallysaidthatRussiansinRussiaaremisledbecausethey'reregularlysubjectedtoone-sided
depictions.IntheUS,I'verunintonumerousovertheageoftwentyUkrainianbornethnicUkrainians,ethnic
Russians,Jewsandanymixofthethree(aswellassomeothers),who'vespentagooddealoftimeintheWest.
Theyincludeindividualswhoseviewsgenerallycoincidewithmine.Thisgroupingbelievethatpost-SovietUkraine
(especiallyaftertheso-called"OrangeRevolution"inlate2004)hasseenanincreasedanti-Russianhistoricalslant,
thathasnurturedagreateracceptanceoffactuallychallengedviews.

Unlikethebullypulpitapproach,manyoftheseindividuals(includingyourstruly)directlyaddressdisagreeablepoints.
Anumberofthemnotethelackoftoleranceamongthoseinhighprofilepositionswhodisagreewiththemandcando
sorathercrudely.Insteadoffeelingfreetocomfortablyexpressthemselvesintheopen,someinthecounter-
Euromaidan/pro-Russiangroupingprefertonotriskbeinglabeleda"Kremlintroll",
aftermakingreasonableobservations,withoutcomingclosetousingsuchcharacterizationsas"troll".

Attimes,anacademicstandingcanhavetheappearanceasanunofficiallicensetolaunchfaultydiatribes.Howcan
thisaspectinfluencetheteachingenvironment?Insomeacademicsettings(notall),astudent(prospectiveor
otherwise)infieldslikehistory,politicalstudiesandjournalism,mightunderstandablybeinclinedtoseethatakindof
selfcensorshipmightbeneededtobetteradvance.Unlikethehardsciencesofpreciseformulas,there'smorewiggle
roomintheliberalartstoshortchangeavalidperspectivethat'sunpopularwiththepredominatingview.

InNorthAmerica,theacademicandnon-academiclikesofAlexanderMotylofRutgersUniversityandSerhiiPlokhiiof
HarvardUniversity,aremorelikelytogetmassmediaactionoverotherswithadifferentoveralltake.I'mhard
pressedtorecallanyoneatRutgersand/orHarvardwho'veamassmediaopinionpieceindirectoppositiontoMotyl
andPlokhii.

Plokhiiwasn'tchallengedwhenhemadesome(putmildly)questionablecommentsinafeaturedQ&AwithStar
journalistOliviaWardthispastFebruary29.ContrarytoPlokhii,inthelead-uptoUkrainianPresidentViktor
Yanukovych'souster,publicopinionpollsinUkraineregularlyshowedadifferenceofwithin10%andinsomeinstances
avirtualtie,orslightsupportfavoringeithertheEUortheRussianinvolvedEurasianEconomicUnion.It'sfaultyto
judgetheprevailingmoodinUkraineonwhichgroupmustersthelargeststreetdemonstrationinKiev.

WardandPlokhiiengageinrevisionismwhensuggestingthatRussiawastheprimaryinstigatoroftensioninUkraine.
TheKremlinandthethenUkrainiangovernmentweren'tagainstthreeway(Russia,UkraineandEU)talksonhowto
bestdevelopUkraine.Onthisscore,theWestplayedmoreofthezerosumgame.

PlokhiicanbelegitimatelysecondguessedforsayingthattheCossacks(inwhat'snowmoderndayUkraine)had
unitedunderIvanMazepa,whenhechosetoopposeRussia.NumeroushistoricalaccountsnoteMazepa'sdownfall
beingpartlyattributedtothelackofsupporthereceived(fromCossacksandothers)intheareaheoversaw,after
hischangedallegiancefromRussiatoSwedenandPoland.

Inseveralinstances,MotylhasbeenfeaturedinNewsweekandTheWallStreetJournal.Hehasablogat
avenuedominatedbyaneocontoneolibleaningslant,favoringanti-Russianopinionsoverpro-Russianthoughts.

Inarecentblogpost,MotylhighlightsVladimirZhirinovsky'sstatureasasignofafascistRussia.Motylisreluctant
tocategorizepost-SovietUkraineasfascist,despiteitsissuingofstampshonoringStepanBandera,theelevationof
ParubiyasRadaheadandthelevelofpost-Yanukovychperiodviolence,inKievregimecontrolledUkraineagainst
counter-Euromaidanindividuals.

PresentdayRussiadoesn'tformallyhonorAndreyVlasov,whoinWWII,ledanarmyofcapturedRussiansoldiersina
nominalalliancewithNaziGermany.Vlasov'strackrecordisn'tasnegativeaswhathasbeenassociatedwith
Bandera.(ThetenuousstateofrelationsbetweenVlasovandBanderaisanotherintricatefacettotheRussian-
Ukrainianrelationship.IrecallhistorianJohnArmstrongandsomeothersnotingthatupto30%-40%ofVlasov's
personnelwereethnicUkrainians.Bandera'sforcesweregreatlycomprisedofGalicianUkrainians.Therewerealsothe
manyRussiansandUkrainianswhofoughtontheSovietside.)

AsforZhirinovsky,asubstantialenoughnumberseemtoviewhimasacrudeshtikcomicwithlimitedpolitical
influence.In2002,hedrewanenthusiasticaudienceinBrooklyn'sBrightonBeach.ABelarusian-JewishMD
acquaintancewhoisZionistinoutlookandsensitivetoanti-Jewishbigotry,toldmethathefindsZhirinovsky
entertainingandthathe'dpaytoseehimspeaklive.(Zhirinovsky'sfatherwasJewish.)Igatherfromtheseinstances
thatZhirinovskyisn'tforthepoliticallycorrect,whilehehasfoundanicheasanacceptableenoughpersonality,fora
noticeablenumberofpeoplewhoaren'tnecessarilyextreme.Atlastnotice,Zhirinovskyisn'tinvolvedwithanymilitias
harboringneo-Naziviews.

Theseobservationsaremadewithoutmeaningtogivehimacompletepass.Thoseopposedtoanti-Russian
propagandaatornearthedegreeofbigotryaren'tdoingtheircauserightwithinconsistency.

Motyl'sinfatuationwiththeimageofRussiaandfascismisindicatedinanotherblogpostofhis,withareferenceto
BenitoMussoliniandVladimirPutin.Putinhasanappointedinnercircleandmakesdecisionsastheheadofstate.
WhatprivatelygoesonbetweenPutinandhiscabinetisn'tsowellknown.ArecentfeatureinTheAtlanticreveals
thatObamahasmadedecisionsagainsthisadvisers.DoesthatmakeObamaaversionofMussolini?Motyl'sreference
ofPutinwithMussoliniisoffthemark.MuchunliketheItaliandictator,Putinhasopenlyexchangedviewswithpeople
whodisagreewithhimanddoesn'tbitewhathecan'tchew.

WitnesstheSyrianandUkrainianscenarios.TheKremlinassistedSyriangovernmentwasontheoffensivebefore
RussiacommittedtoaSyrianCivilWarceasefireandareducedRussiamilitarypresenceinSyria.Likewise,thepro-
RussianrebelsineasternUkrainelookedliketheycould'vegainedmoreterritory,beforeRussiacommitteditselftothe
MinskIIceasefireagreement.Libya,EthiopiaandGreeceposednothreattoItaly.AstheypertaintoRussia,the
morerecentSyrianandUkrainiansituationsaremuchdifferent.

TheRussianmilitarysupporttotheSyriangovernmentincludesthematterofaworseoptionthatcanblowover
beyondSyria.Specifically,SyriansituatedterroristshavingRussiaasoneoftheirmaintargets,aswellaspriorUS
actionsinIraqandSyria,whichhaveproducedsomenegativeresults.

Crimeaconcernsapro-RussianmajorityopposedtotheoverthrowofademocraticallyelectedUkrainianpresident,
followedbyaseriesofincreasedanti-Russianadvocacy.TheDonbasssituationinvolvesmanyinthatterritorywith
closetiestoRussia,whoaren'tcomfortablewiththepost-YanukovychKievbasedrule.

IncomparisontoUkraine,thereasonableperceptionofamoresecureandeconomicallybetteroffRussiaisamain
elementofthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianstance.Whilenotnecessarilybeinganti-Western,thisperspective
seeslimitsinwhattheWestiswillingtoofferUkraine.

TheCounterPerspectiveattheIvyLeagueLevel

FromtheFortRussblog,IwasinformedofalectureatBrownUniversitybyStanislavByshokoftheCIS-Europe
MonitoringOrganization.Theredoesn'tappeartobeanonlinevideoofthisevent.Myresponsetohisaddress(as
postedbyFortRuss)includesomeofwhatIsaidinmyStrategicCultureFoundationpieceofthispastSeptember
29.

Byshokcould'vementionedthat"KievanRus"isalatterdayacademiccharacterizationusedtodescribe"Rus"and
thataNovgorodprince,Oleg,movedhismainlocaletoKiev,ataboutthetimethatmanybegintheperiodknownas
"KievanRus".In1862,Russiaformallyacknowledgedits1,000yearexistencebasedoutofNovgorod.

KievwastobecometheleadingRuscity.BeforetheMongolsubjugationofRus,Kievwasshowingadecreasein
influence.Backthen,thereweresignsthatterritoryincontemporarynorthwesternRussiawouldbecometheleading
Rusbase.ThislandwasgeographicallymoreaccessibletotheleadingWesternpowers.WithinRus,therewere
effortstodevelopthatterritory.

WhenhistoricallyhypingRussian-Ukrainiandifferences,the"svidomites"highlightAndreyBogolyubsky'sattackonKiev
in1169.(SvidomiteisaderisivelyusedtermtodescribeUkrainiannationalistswithananti-Russianlean.)
Bogolyubsky'sactionshouldbearguablyseenmoreassomethingakintoWilliamSherman'sattackonAtlantainthe
formofacivilwar,thanaforeignpowerattackingadifferententity.CreditedwithdevelopingSuzdal(nearMosocw),
BogolyubskyhadadynasticclaimtotheKievthrone,withhisgrandfatherbeingafamousKievcrownprince.

Thepro-Russiancommunityinpost-SovietUkrainewaswillingtoliveinaseparateUkrainianstate.Thiswillingness
wascompromisedwiththeactiontakenintheoverthrowofYanukovychandtheelevatedinfluenceofanti-Russian
leaningproponents.

IremainsomewhatmoreupbeatthansomeothersonthefutureofRussian-Ukrainianrelations.Someoncebitterrival
nationshaveputtheirpastdifferencesaside.ByshoksuggeststhattheimportanceofRussiacanleadtoalessened
Westernenthusiasmforpro-KievregimecontrolledUkraine.Anotherfactorcanincludeagrowingrealizationthatthe
Kievregimehasn'tbeensovirtuous.Inoneofhismorerealistmoments,USPresidentBarackObamasaid(in
hisexchangewithJeffreyGoldberginTheAtlantic)thatUkrainemeansmoretoRussiathanitdoestheWest.

MichaelAverkoisaNewYorkbasedindependentforeignpolicyanalystandmediacritic.Thisarticleisaclosely
relatedversionofthetwopartfeature,whichappearedattheStrategicCultureFoundation'swebsiteonMay
7and8.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:LubomyrLuciuk<lluciuk@cogeco.ca>
Date:2016-05-0910:21GMT-04:00
Subject:anti-SemiticandUkrainophobicimagecirculatedbytheRussians(captionreads:"Ukrainian
Nationalists")
To:

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/09/201608:50:09AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[HISTORYWARSINFULLSWING]KP:VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives(responsetoJOSH
Subject:
C)......JamesKbacksVV:SovietorWestHardLeftVersionofWWIIhas'HolocaustWithouttheJews.....RUVICTORYDAY2016[OHBO
Attachments: Zhydobanderovtsy.jpg

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,May09,20168:19AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[HISTORYWARSINFULLSWING]KP:VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives(responsetoJOSH
C)......JamesKbacksVV:SovietorWestHardLeftVersionofWWIIhas'HolocaustWithouttheJews.....RUVICTORYDAY2016[OH
BOY...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:larysazariczniak<cymlala@hotmail.com>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at5:38AM
Subject:Viatrovych'sresponse
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

HiWaz,

Here'sViatrovych'sfullresponsetoCohen'sarticleinKP:http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/volodymyr-viatrovych-
real-and-fictional-history-in-ukraines-archives-413382.html

TwoQuotesfromVolodymyrV'sResponsetoJoshC:

[1]OneofCohen'sleadingargumentsisthatIam"whitewashing"UkrainianhistorybyincludingtheUkrainian
liberationmovementwithinUkraine'snationalhistoricalnarrativeandignoringit'sinvolvementintheHolocaustandthe
ethniccleansingofPolesduringtheSecondWorldWar.

Hecallsthisa"revisionisthistory"whileIwoulddisagree.DuringtheSovietUnion,thementionofthenationalists
wasautomaticallyassociatedwiththeNazis(eventhoughthetwowerenotthesamething)andtheHolocaustwas
almostcompletelySovietized-theJewswerenotthevictimsoftheHolocaustbutrather"Sovietcitizens"were(asis
statedonthememorialtothevictimsofBabiYarinKyiv).InnowayamI,ortheInstituteofNationalMemory,
falsifyingthe"narrativeoftheHolocaust",especiallywhenthatnarrativeisallbutforgotteninSovietUkrainian
historicaltexts.Ifanything,theInstitutehasworkedhardtoplacetheHolocaust-anditsmemory-backintothe
Ukrainiannationalhistoricalnarrativebyincludingitinpublicdisplaysanddiscussions.

[SEEJAMESK(BELOW)makeVV'spointforhimin'HolocaustwithouttheJews'][AlsonotewhatLubomyrL
sent:"....anti-SemiticandUkrainophobicimagecirculatedbytheRussians(captionreads:"Ukrainian
Nationalists")"]

[2]Cohensystematicallyignoresmorethan10yearsofhistorywheretheUkrainiannationwassplitbetweentwo
largercountries,devastatedbygenocide,thePacification,theGreatTerror,repressionandinter-ethnicstrife.
Yes,theOUNwasamilitantorganization-nohistoriandeniesthatfact.ButwhatCohenisdoingisdenyingthe
importanceoftheOUNtowesternUkrainianhistoryduringtheinterwarperiod-somethinghehimselfaccuses
meofdoingwiththememoryofRedArmysoldiers.I,northeInstituteofNationalMemory,aredenyingthe
"heroismoftheRedArmyduringWorldWarII"-themanycommemorationsandremembrancecelebrations
thatareincludedintheMay8-9festivitiesthroughoutUkraineareaindicationofthis.RedArmysoldierssat
side-by-sidelastyearwiththeveteransoftheUPAandneithergrouphadanyproblemwiththis.

[SEEREUTERSpieceonRUVictoryDayinMoscow2016ANDPutinUSMouthpieceMikeAverko's
scribblesonRU-UA-WWII(ALSOBELOW)]

VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives

VolodymyrViatrovychisthedirectoroftheUkrainianInstituteofNationalMemory.

Editor'sNote:Thefollowingisanop-edbyVolodymyrViatrovych,aUkrainianhistorian
researchingtheUkrainianindependencemovementandthedirectoroftheUkrainianInstitute
ofNationalRemembrancesinceMarch25,2014.ItisaresponsetoastorybyJoshCohenin
ForeignPolicy,headlined"ThehistorianwhitewashingUkraine'spast."Thewebsiteforthe
InstituteofNationalRemembranceishere.

Ioftentalkwithjournalistsfromdifferentcountries,publicationsandwithdifferentviews.
Themoreprofessionalthejournalist,thelesstheyshowtheirownpreferencesandtryto
listenandreflecttheopinionofthepersontheyaretalkingwith.Manyofwhomhave
questionsthatprovokeadiscussion.ButthequestionsposedbyjournalistJoshCohenare
certainlynotjournalisticbutratherthoseofaprosecutor.

AfterreadingseverallinesofhisinitialemailrequestformycommentsonFeb.25,Ialready
understood:heistalkingtomeasifIwastheaccused.Heasked:Howwouldyourespondto
Westernhistorians'allegationsthatyouoryourstaffhaveawillingnesstoignoreoreven
falsifyhistoricaldocuments?Andotherquestionsofthatnature.Adheringtodemocratic
standards,Cohengavemetheopportunitytojustifymyself:Wewouldwelcomeany
statementyouwouldliketomakeinresponsetotheseallegationssothattheymaybe
includedinthearticleForeignPolicyintendstopublishAsweareclosetopublication,I
wouldgreatappreciateareplyinthenexttwodays.

Despitetheangrytoneandtheaccusationsofitsintent(evidenceofactionswerenotfound
becausehehadnone)Ihaveprepareddetailedanswers,fragmentsofwhichtheyprinted.Not
inordertopresentmyheavilyeditedpointofview,butinordertocreatetheimpressionof
preservingbalanceinhiswork.

ItsnotthatImnewtosuchkindofscientificdebate.

TakethepiecebyJaredMcBridewiththerevealingtitle:HowUkrainesNewMemory
CommissarIsControllingtheNationsPast.AnditwasonlyafterreadingthepiecebyJeffrey
BurdsthatInotonlyfoundoutaboutmyso-calledfalsificationsorcensorship,butalso
learnedthatsomemajorfalsifyingoccursinamysterious898-pagebookthetitleofwhich
heunfortunatelyfailstomention.

IwassurprisedbythewordsofCanadianhistorianMarcoCarynnykabouthisproblemswith
accessingtheSBUarchivewhenIwasdirector.Perhaps,Cohenmisunderstoodhiswords
becausethereisaletterfromMarco(whoIhopewillforgivemeforbeingforcedinto
publishingourprivatecorrespondencefrom2010):Youknow,perhapsIdonotagreewith
yourevaluationofsomeaspectsofUkrainianhistory.ButIwillalwaysbegratefultoyoufor
thefactthatinthelastyearyougavemeaccesstothe(SecurityServiceofUkraine)SBU
archives.Andthiswasnotpreferentialtreatment.WhenIheadedtheSBUarchives,forthe
firsttimeeverpeoplewereensuredequalaccess.

StanislavSerhiyenko,aUkrainianhistorian,representstheangeredcolleaguesfromUkrainein
Cohenswork.Icouldnotrecallafamoushistorianwiththatname.Why?Iunderstoodafter
receivingaFacebookmessagefromthedirectoroftheSBUarchivesAndriyKohut.Stanislav
Serhiyenkoisaleft-wingstudentactivist,aregularcontributorthepro-Russianpublication
Gazeta2000,financedbytheFoundationnamedforthescandalousOlesBuzina.Kohutalso
saidthat,contrarytowhathetoldCohen,Serhiyenkonevercomplainedtothearchivestaff
aboutnothavingaccesstothearchives.

Whatisequallystrangeistheauthorstextisfullofmistakesanddistortions.Herearejusta
few:IbecamethedirectoroftheCenterforResearchoftheLiberationMovementin2002and
notin2006(thisisanimportantdetailbecauseitdemonstratestheauthor'snegligence,he
didn'tevencheckWikipedia)underPresidentViktorYushchenkostreetnameswerenot
renamedafterleadersoftheOrganizationofUkrainianNationalists(OUN)andUkrainian
InsurrectionArmy(UPA).Andonthoseoccasionstheywere,therewasneveranydirect
involvementfromthepresident.

Likewise,CohensclaimthatIdefendedthesoldiersoftheWaffenSSGaliciaDivisioncannot
besubstantiatedbyanyexamples.InsteadIwriteaboutthemasvictimsofwar,Ukrainians
mobilizedbyhostilepropagandatofightforsomeoneelse'spurpose.Finally,itwasnotthe
presidentwhoappointedmethedirectoroftheUkrainianInstituteofNationalMemory(and
notmyMemoryInstituteasCohenputsit),ratherthiswasdonebyagovernmentdecree.At
thetimeofmyappointment(March25,2014)PetroPoroshenkowasnotyetpresident.
Therefore,tosayheenlistedthesupportofnationalistforcesisridiculous.Moreover,Iamnot
amemberofanypoliticalparty.

Thedeepertheauthorgetsintohistory,themoreerrorsthereare.Witheasehestates
unconfirmedfigures:70-100,000Poleswere"killedbytheUPA".Thesewerethefigures
quotedinpoliticalstatementsbutthereisnoscientificstudybasedonsources,oratthevery
leastreliablemethodologyincalculatingthesenumbers.

Theoriginofthefigureof"35,000JewskilledbynationalistsinwesternUkraine"isalso
unclear.It'sthenumberyoucan'tfindintheworksofeventhosehistorianswhoarethe
heaviestcriticsofOUN.

Cohenisaseasewithhisuseofnumbers,justasheiswithhissources.

Thesupposed"order"byKlyachkyvskiyaboutthe"destructionofallPolesage16to60"was
deemedafake.

OneofCohen'sleadingargumentsisthatIam"whitewashing"Ukrainianhistorybyincluding
theUkrainianliberationmovementwithinUkraine'snationalhistoricalnarrativeandignoring
it'sinvolvementintheHolocaustandtheethniccleansingofPolesduringtheSecondWorld
War.

Hecallsthisa"revisionisthistory"whileIwoulddisagree.DuringtheSovietUnion,the
mentionofthenationalistswasautomaticallyassociatedwiththeNazis(eventhoughthetwo
werenotthesamething)andtheHolocaustwasalmostcompletelySovietized-theJews
werenotthevictimsoftheHolocaustbutrather"Sovietcitizens"were(asisstatedonthe
memorialtothevictimsofBabiYarinKyiv).InnowayamI,ortheInstituteofNational
Memory,falsifyingthe"narrativeoftheHolocaust",especiallywhenthatnarrativeisallbut
forgotteninSovietUkrainianhistoricaltexts.Ifanything,theInstitutehasworkedhardto
placetheHolocaust-anditsmemory-backintotheUkrainiannationalhistoricalnarrativeby
includingitinpublicdisplaysanddiscussions.

ThehistoryoftheUkrainianliberationmovementalsocannotbesimplifiedintoacoupleof
paragraphsthatindicateitscreationin1929andinvolvementinthewarin1941.

Cohensystematicallyignoresmorethan10yearsofhistorywheretheUkrainiannationwas
splitbetweentwolargercountries,devastatedbygenocide,thePacification,theGreatTerror,
repressionandinter-ethnicstrife.Yes,theOUNwasamilitantorganization-nohistorian
deniesthatfact.ButwhatCohenisdoingisdenyingtheimportanceoftheOUNtowestern
Ukrainianhistoryduringtheinterwarperiod-somethinghehimselfaccusesmeofdoingwith
thememoryofRedArmysoldiers.I,northeInstituteofNationalMemory,aredenyingthe
"heroismoftheRedArmyduringWorldWarII"-themanycommemorationsandremembrance
celebrationsthatareincludedintheMay8-9festivitiesthroughoutUkraineareaindicationof
this.RedArmysoldierssatside-by-sidelastyearwiththeveteransoftheUPAandneither
grouphadanyproblemwiththis.

CohenonlyhadtoglimpseattheYouTubefootageofthe2015RemembranceDayconcertin
Kyivtounderstandthis.WhatCohenhasaslightgriponistheproblemofUkrainianhistory-
easternUkrainianhistoryandwesternUkrainianhistorywereneveridenticalandonecannot
pleaseonegroupoveranother.IfUkrainianhistoriansdidwhatCohensuggested,than
westernUkrainianhistorywouldbeleftoutofthenationalhistoricalnarrative(whichis
consequently,whatoccurredintheSovietUnion).Therefore,whileheclaimsthatinLuhansk
andtheeastIam"ignoringhalfthepopulation",whatheissuggestingisalsoignoringthe
otherhalf.WhatI,andtheInstituteareworkinghardondoingisadvocatingforaunited
nationalhistoricalnarrativeinwhichallhistoricalactivitiesofallUkrainiansarementioned-
nationalist,communistandeventhoseoftheDiasporaUkrainianswhofoughtintheAllied
forcesonthebeachesofNormandy,inMonteCassinoandthePacificTheatre.

CohenfurthersimplifiesthehistoryofUkraineduringtheSecondWorldWarintoavery
"Soviet"viewpoint.Ukrainiansdidkillothernationalities,butalsokilledotherUkrainians
justthesameasothernationalitieskilledeachotherandUkrainiansinhorribleways.The
historyofUkraineduringtheSecondWorldWarcannotbeglimpsedinsuchasimpleandblack
andwhitepicture.

Forexample,theOUN-UPAdidnotcollaboratewiththeGermansortheSoviets.Therewere
individualpactsofunderstandingbetweenallthreebutitwasneversystematic.Recordseven
indicatethatRedArmysoldierswarnedUPAunitsaboutincomingNKVDtroopswhenthe
UkrainianFrontwaspushingwestwardthroughoutUkraine.

TheaccusationsthattheOUNandtheUPAcollaboratedisxenophobia,theirparticipationin
theHolocaustandethniccleansingischaracteristicofSoviethistoriographyandpropaganda,
andistothisdaysupportedbyanumberofresearchersintheWest(includingthosereferred
toinCohensarticlelikeHimka,CarynnykandBurds).Butthejournalistpresentshisviewsas
theonlycorrectversionofevents.Therefore,attemptstoopposetheirviews,basedonnewly
discovereddocumentsisdeplorable"revisionism".

ThesewordshaveaclearassociationforWesternreaderswithHolocaustdenial.Theyare
usedinbrandinghundredsofmodernUkrainianandforeignresearchersthatcharacterizethe
activitiesoftheUPAandtheOUNaspartoftheUkrainianLiberationMovement,amovement
whichfoughtagainstbothtotalitarianregimes-thecommunistsandtheNazis.

Furthermore,CoheninsiststhattheOUNtookanactiveparticipationinthe1941Jewish
pogrominLviv.TherearenoOUNdocumentstosuggestsuchanactiveparticipationofthe
Organizationduringthistime.Again,individualmembersoftheOUNdidtakepartbutthe
OrganizationwasmorefocusedonannouncingtheJune30,1941ActofRestoringUkrainian
independence.Also,whileitistruethatUkrainiansdidtakepartinthekillingofJewsin
UkraineduringtheHolocausttheexactnumberisstillunidentifiedandiscertainlynogreater
thanthenumberofothernationalitieswhoalsocollaboratedintheHolocaustwiththe
Germans.OUNmembersalsosavedhundredsofJewsfromGermanexecutioners-oneof
thembeingOlenaViter,aGreek-Catholicnun,OUNmemberandaRighteousAmongthe
Nations.

WhatCohencertaindoesunderstandistheimportanceofthe"consolidationofUkrainian
democracy"which"requiresthecountrytocometogripswiththedarkeraspectsofitspast"
butthatcanonlybedonewithUkrainiansunderstandallsidesoftheirnationalhistoryand
notjusttheone-sidedheavilySovietizedversionofUkrainianhistory.Ukrainiansneedto
cometotermswithoneofthemostcomplexhistoricalexperiences(andnightmares)that
occurredduringtheSecondWorldWarontheirterritory-anexperiencethatdifferedregionally
butalsolocallyandevenwithinfamilies.ThatisimportantachievementofUkraine's
historians.Nomatterwhattopictheywriteabout,theynowhavetheabilitytowriteaboutit
inafree,democraticandcriticalway(evenwiththeluxuryofhavingitopenlycriticized).

ThemostimportantconclusiondrawnbythearticlepublishedbyForeignPolicyisthat
historicalcensorshipandtherewritingofhistoryisintroducedbyrestrictingaccesstothe
archives.Anumberofresearchersexpressedsuchconcernspriortotheintroductionofthe
decommunizationlaw.Ayearhaspassedandtherehavebeennocasesofrestrictionsof
academicfreedomoraccess.Becausethelawdoesnotcontainthetoolstodoso.Incontrast,
thenumberofusersaccessingtheoldKGBarchiveshassignificantlyincreased,amongthem
havebeenresearchersfromoutsideUkraine(forexample,AmirWeiner,LynneViola,Anne
Applebaum).AtthesametimethenumberofUkrainiansaccessingthearchiveshasgrownby
almost50percent.

ThetransferofhistoricaldocumentsfromtheSecurityServices,theForeignIntelligence
Services,theMinistryofInterior,wouldnotonlyrelievethemoftheextraworkholdingthem,
butitalsoallowsforthedocumentstobeprocessedbyhistoriansandarchivists,insteadof
law-enforcementofficials.

Andfurthermore,thetransfer(whichbythewayisonlybeingpreparedforandhasnottaken
place,asCohenincorrectlywrites)isanimportantelementofthegeneraldemocratic
transformationofapost-totalitariansociety.

TheInternationalCouncilonArchivesrecommends:"Recordsproducedoraccumulatedby
formerrepressivebodiesmustbeplacedunderthecontrolofthenewdemocraticauthorities
attheearliestopportunityandtheseauthoritiesmustassesstheholdingsindetail.()The
securitybodiesmustensurethetransferofselectedfilesanddocumentseithertothe
nationalarchives,totheinstitutionsdealingwithcompensationorreparationforvictimsof
therepressionandpurgingofformerofficials,ortotheTruthCommissions."

Thiswaswhyspecialarchivallawswereadoptedlastyearwhichalreadyoperatein11post-
communistcountriesinEasternEurope(Poland,CzechRepublic,Slovakia,Hungaryand
Romaniaandetc.)

Theopeningofthecommunistsecretservicearchivesisthemainguaranteeagainstthestate
imposingonesingleviewofthepast,or,furthermore,oneoftheguaranteesofdemocratic
development.ThatiswhyUkrainechosetofollowtheexperienceofitsneighborsafterthe
Euromaidan.

OtherwiseweriskfacingwhatisalreadyhappeningeastwardofUkraine.TheclosedRussian
archives(whichwererecentlyputunderthedirectcontrolofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin)
becamethefoundationfortherehabilitationoftotalitarianismandareusedforthispurpose
today.

Butthisisanother,realstoryabouttherewritingofthepastandtheuseofarchives.Theone
thatfailedtoattractJoshCohensattention.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JamieKirchick<jkirchick@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at10:01AM
Subject:TheHolocaustwithoutJews[ED:ItstartedwiththeCCCP'sVersionofWWII]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

HowtheregressiveleftsnewcampaignagainstHillaryClintonrepresentsthecannibalizingofAmericanliberalism

Viewthisemailinyour
browser

TheHolocaustwithoutJews

AttemptstouniversalizethespecificsufferingofJewsintheShoahgohandinhandwitheffortstode-
legitimizetheJewishstate

ByJamesKirchick|May3,2016

OnThursday,IsraelwillmarkHolocaustRemembranceDay,YomHaShoah.Ashasbeenthecustomfor
oversixdecades,a2-minuteairraidsirenwillbeblaredacrosstheentirecountryandcitizensfromall
walksoflifewillinterrupttheirdailyroutinesforamomentofsolemnreflection.Jan.27ofthisyearalso
markedthedecadeanniversaryoftheUnitedNations-designatedInternationalHolocaustRemembrance
Day,whichmemberstatesareencouragedtocommemorate.ThoughanIsraeliinitiative,International
HolocaustRemembranceDayhasgraduallybeensubjectedtotheuniversalizingprescriptionsofthose
whowouldwaterdowntheparticularlyJewishaspectoftheNaziexterminationoftheJews.

TheevolutionoftwodifferentdaysofHolocaustcommemorationandthewaystheyincreasinglyrun
countertoeachotheraresymptomaticoftheseizureofJewishhistoryandsufferingforulteriorpurposes.
ThisvictimdisplacementappropriatesthemosttraumaticexperienceinJewishhistory,pointedlyerases
thespecificityoftheeventssupposedlybeingcommemorated,andthenharshlychidesJewsforinserting
theirownparticularisticconcernsintothediscussion.Atacertainpoint,thesephenomenabecomea
continuationofaspecificformofoppressionanderasureratheranantidotetohatred.

TocontinuereadingthisessayinTablet,pleaseclickhere.

Copyright2016JamesKirchick,Allrightsreserved.
YouarereceivingthisemailbecauseyouareonjournalistJamieKirchick'smailinglist.

Ourmailingaddressis:

JamesKirchick

DistrictofColumbia

Washington,DC20009

Addustoyouraddressbook

Wanttochangehowyoureceivetheseemails?
Youcanupdateyourpreferencesorunsubscribefromthislist

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Mon,May9,2016at10:08AM
Subject:REUTERS:RussiashowcasesSyriahardwareinRedSquaremilitaryparade
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

ED:KEYQUOTEFROMREUTERSITEM[LookingforYaltaII&beingcalledonitpickingonthePolesandUkes
fornotbuyingtheRussianversionofWWII]:

"Putin,inhisspeech,largelyconfinedhisremarkstotheimportanceofthewartimevictory.Buthealsospokeoftheneed
tofightglobalterrorismandtocooperatewithothernationstodothat.

"Terrorismhasbecomeaglobalthreat,"saidPutin."Wemustdefeatthisevil.AndRussiaisopentounitingeffortswith
othergovernments,isreadytoworkonthecreationofamodernnon-blocsystemofinternationalsecurity."

StatemediacriticizedgovernmentsinUkraineandPolandintherun-uptotheparadeforsystematicallydismantling
wartimemonumentsinhonorofSovietforces,accusingthemofdishonoringthetroopswholiberatedthemfromthe
Nazis.

Rulingpoliticiansinbothcountriesdisagree,sayingSoviettroopswereoccupiers.Themonumentsarebeingpulled
downaspartofade-communisationdrive,theysay.

VladimirNorosov,90,aSovietveteraninMoscowfortheparade,saidhewasangeredbysuchremarks.

"Wefoughttogether,myselfandmyPolishbrothers,"hetoldReuters."Howmanypeoplediedfightingtoliberatethat
country?Whattheyaredoingnowisdisgraceful."

RussiashowcasesSyriahardware

inRedSquaremilitaryparade

MOSCOW|BYANDREWOSBORNANDJACKSTUBBS

RussiarolledoutanairdefensemissilesystemofthekindusedtoprotectitsbaseinSyriaandsomeoftheRussianjetsflying
missionstherescreamedoverheadasitshowcaseditsmilitarywarmachineonMoscow'sRedSquareonMonday.

Thegrandparade,anannualfixturecommemoratingtheSovietUnion'svictoryovertheNazisinWorldWarTwo,tookplacein
brightsunshineasPresidentVladimirPutinlookedonfromatribunefilledwithSovietwarveterans,someofwhomworerowsof
campaignmedalsandclutchedredroses.

TheRussianleader,whoseforcesannexedUkraine'sCrimeain2014andarenowhelpingSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad's
army,watchedasthousandsoftroopsmarchedacrossthecobbledsquaretothestrainsofmartialmusic.

Theauthorities,backedbystatemedia,usetheeventtoencouragepatriotism,reinforcenationalidentity,forgeopoliticalpoint
scoring,andtounderscoretheimportanceofhavingastrongmilitarytoprotectthecountry'sborders.

"It(thecommemoration)hasbecomeasymbolofsacredclosenessbetweenRussiaanditspeople,"Putintoldtheparade."Andin
suchunityandloyaltytothemotherlandliesourstrength,ourconfidence,andourdignity."

TheKremlinalsonowusestheeventtoshowhowamulti-billiondollarmodernizationprogramischangingthefaceoftheRussian
militarywithnewweaponsandhardware.

SomepoliticiansinformerSovietrepublicsorsatellitestatesregardtheparadeascrudesabre-rattlingbyaresurgentRussiathey
sayposesathreattoEurope'ssecurity.Russiadismissessuchallegationsasnonsense.

SYRIANHARDWARE

ColumnsoftanksfollowedthetroopsasdidtheadvancedS-400airdefensemissilesystem,whichisdeployedinSyriatoprotect
theRussianairbasethere.Russia'slatestYarsmobileintercontinentalnuclearmissilelauncherwasalsoonshow.

RELATEDVIDEO

Russiamarkswaranniversary

ScoresofmilitaryaircraftflewoverRedSquare,includingjetswhichemittedmulti-coloredsmoketotracethered,blueandwhite
colorsoftheRussianflaginthesky.

Putin,inhisspeech,largelyconfinedhisremarkstotheimportanceofthewartimevictory.Buthealsospokeoftheneedtofight
globalterrorismandtocooperatewithothernationstodothat.

"Terrorismhasbecomeaglobalthreat,"saidPutin."Wemustdefeatthisevil.AndRussiaisopentounitingeffortswithother
governments,isreadytoworkonthecreationofamodernnon-blocsystemofinternationalsecurity."

StatemediacriticizedgovernmentsinUkraineandPolandintherun-uptotheparadeforsystematicallydismantlingwartime
monumentsinhonorofSovietforces,accusingthemofdishonoringthetroopswholiberatedthemfromtheNazis.
Rulingpoliticiansinbothcountriesdisagree,sayingSoviettroopswereoccupiers.Themonumentsarebeingpulleddownaspartof
ade-communisationdrive,theysay.

VladimirNorosov,90,aSovietveteraninMoscowfortheparade,saidhewasangeredbysuchremarks.

"Wefoughttogether,myselfandmyPolishbrothers,"hetoldReuters."Howmanypeoplediedfightingtoliberatethatcountry?
Whattheyaredoingnowisdisgraceful."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at2:55AM
Subject:Russian-UkrainianIntricacies[ED:PUTIN'SMOUTHPIECESPEAKSAGAIN.....GOESAFTERALEX
MOTYL]
To:

EurasiaReview-http://www.eurasiareview.com-http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/michael-averko/

Monday,May9,2016-http://www.eurasiareview.com/09052016-ongoing-russian-ukrainian-intricacies-analysis/

OngoingRussian-UkrainianIntricacies

byMichaelAverko

DiversityAmongRussiansandUkrainians

It'sdifficult(ifnotimpossible)foranessaytofullycoveralloftherelatedRussian-Ukrainiancomplexities.Hence,
articlesonthesubjectathandservetoencourageafollow-up.AlexanderClapp'slengthyApril25National
Interestarticle"HowtoJoinaUkrainianMilitia"hassomekeyomissions.

AmongthemisNadiyaSavchenko'sassociationwiththeAidargroup,whichClappdescribesastheleastreputableof
Ukrainiannationalistmilitias.WhencomparedtoClapp,someothersourcesaremorenegativeonthatmilitia.
UncriticallylaudedbytheObamaadministrationandsomeotherWesternofficialdom,SavchenkoreceivedWestern
attentionafterherincarcerationinRussia,whereshe'sservingacontroversialsentenceforcomplicityinthekillingof
twoRussianjournalistsineasternUkraine.(SavchenkoandAidararediscussedinmyStrategicCulture
FoundationpieceofthispastMarch17.)

SomeoftheUkrainiannationalistsopposetheEU-somethingthatClappdoesn'treallygetinto.Henotessome
sociallyconservativethinkingintheUkrainiannationalistmilitias,whichgreatlyexplainstheiroppositiontothe
comparativelymoreliberalmindedEU.

ConcerningtheUkrainiannationalistmilitias,issuecanbetakenwiththedegreeofpro-Polishsentimentexpressedin
Clapp'sarticle.OleksandrMuzychko,aslaincloseconfidantofformerRightSectorleaderDmytroYarosh,openly
statedanti-Polishviews,alongwithnegativecommentsaboutRussiansandJews.Lesserknownfolkshavesaidthe
sameaswell.Bynomeanscomplete,thePolishsupportforUkrainiannationalistsisn'twithoutsecondguessingin
Poland.ThisapprehensionhastodowiththecontemporaryUkrainiannationalistlaudingoftheOUN/UPA/Bandrea
legacy,whichviolentlyopposedPolandforaperiodpriortoandduringWWII.

Withsomevalidity,Clappsaysthatmuchofthepresentdaypro-StepanBanderasentimentisignorantlypremised
anddoesn'tinitselfalwaysreflectextremistthinking.Withoutbeingsubstantivelycontested,suchignoranceon
Banderaandtheextremists(amonghissupporters)canleadtomoreprovocativecommentsandaction.Priorto
Hitler'spoliticalascendancy,Germansenmassewereconsideredoneofthemoreculturedandeducatedofpeoples.

Inalternativemedia,therecentlyappointedheadofUkraine'sRada(parliament)AndriyParubiy,hasbeen
criticallyassessedforhisextremistviews.Incontrast,someothershighlighthischange(overthelastfewyears)to
adifferentpoliticalgroupingasamoderatingchange.Notwithstanding,it'sstillwithinreasontoregardParubiy
withsuspicion.

TherecentappointmentofVolodymyrGroysmanasUkrainianprimeminister,hasincludedareferencetohisJewish
origin.HispredecessorArseniyYatsenyukhassomeJewishbackground.JewsareamongtheprominentUkrainian
oligarchsinvolvedwiththeKievregime.Onecanfindvaryinginstancesofanti-JewishbehaviorinRussia,Ukraineand
theWest.Thelevelofthisbehaviorvaries.AstheSovietUnionwasbreakingupandthereafter,someJewish
organizationsandindividualshavelaudedthevastlyimprovedconditionforJewsinRussia.Likewise,Ukrainehas
receivedsomekudosonthatparticular.

Moresothaninthepast,moderndayhumanrightschallengesaremorelikelytoincludelessofananti-Jewish
message,onaccountoftheeffortsmadeinhighlightingandcondemninganti-Jewishbehavior,inconjunctionwith
intolerantforceshavingothertargetsfordisdain.Withthisinmind,thetrumpingofgoodconditionsforJewscan
servetocover-upotherhumanrightsabuses.(RetiredIsraeliGeneralEphraimSnehlaudsAzerbaijan'streatmentof
Jews,asabasisforgoodAzeri-Israelirelations.Meantime,Azerbaijanhasbeenthesubjectofnumeroushuman
rightsrelatedcriticism.)

Whendownplayingthelevelofanti-JewishmannerinKievregimecontrolledUkraine,theUkrainianPresidentPetro
PoroshenkofalselyclaimedthatJewsinCrimea(sinceitsreunificationwithRussia)arebarredfromattending
synagogueservices.ThelikesofEuromaidanPressandStopFakeprobablydidn'tmentionPoroshenko's
aforementionedfallacy.

TheacclaimedUSjournalistRobertParry,hasemphasizedthesuppressionofethnicRussiansinKievregimecontrolled
Ukraine.Thisistoobroadofacharacterizationwhichservesaspropagandafodderforpro-Kievregimeadvocates,
whoseektodiscreditthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianposition.ThiscanbedonebynotingthatRussianis
spokeninKievregimecontrolledUkraine,withsomeethnicRussiansexpressingsupportfortheKievregimeover
Russia.

Foraccuracysake,Parryandsomeothersshouldemphasizethatthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianstanceisheld
bysomeethnicUkrainians.TheEuromaidansuspectDonbassregionismostlypopulatedwithpeoplelistedasethnic
Ukrainian.Inadditiontopersonalaccounts,pollingindicatesthatmostofCrimea'sethnicUkrainianpopulationsupport
thatarea'sreunificationwithRussia.SinceCrimea'sreunificationwithRussia,asmallpercentageofCrimeanresidents
haveleftforUkraine.Duringthisperiod,agreaternumberhavemigratedfromUkrainetoRussiathanvice-versa.

UkrainianbornethnicUkrainiansVladimirMedinskyandValentinaMatviyenkoareappointedRussiangovernment
officials.There'sthematterofpoliticaldivisionamongfamilieswithformerUkrainianSovietSocialistRepublicroots,
asnotedinAlexeiPankin'sApril20RussiaInsiderarticle"Ukraine'sFM'sFather-In-LawIsRussianGeneralWhoHelped
ReuniteCrimeaWithRussia".

ClappexplainstheethnicRussianparticipationintheUkrainiannationalistmilitiasasanoppositiontotheRussian
government.TheseRussianscomeacrossasindividualswho'retheoppositeofconstructivelycriticalpro-Russian
advocates.Theirpositionsidestepsnumerousanti-RussianbiasesevidentinKievregimecontrolledUkraine(someof
whicharedescribedinmyJuly7,2014GlobalResearcharticle,inadditiontosomeofmycommentaryin
theStrategicCultureFoundationandEurasiaReviewvenues).

There'reinterestingtwistsandturnsregardingthefightersintheUkrainiannationalistmilitias.Asanexample,
BelarusianAzovmilitiafighterSergeiKorotkikh,oncebelongedtoapartythatsoughttorestoretheRussian
Empire.Severalsourceshavedescribedhimasaneo-Nazi.

IrespectfullyquestionClapp'sclaimthatapproximatelyhalfoftheAidarmilitiaareethnicRussians.AnearlierBBC
piecenotesaChechen(notethnicRussian)presenceinthatmilitia.ClappquotesAidarfightersinvokingthenameof
Allah.CouldClappbelumpingtogetherChechenRussiannationalswithethnicRussians?OnthesubjectofChechens
fightinginUkraine,thereferencedBBCpieceandsomeothersourcessaythatthisethnicgrouphasbeenmore
evidentonthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-RussianleaningDonbassrebelsidethantheKievregime's.

ThePredominatingNorthAmericanAcademia/MediaSlant

Howhistoryistaughtcangreatlyinfluencesomepeople,whodon'tactivelyseekotherperspectivesinfull.It'squite
ironicwhenit'speriodicallysaidthatRussiansinRussiaaremisledbecausethey'reregularlysubjectedtoone-sided
depictions.IntheUS,I'verunintonumerousovertheageoftwentyUkrainianbornethnicUkrainians,ethnic
Russians,Jewsandanymixofthethree(aswellassomeothers),who'vespentagooddealoftimeintheWest.
Theyincludeindividualswhoseviewsgenerallycoincidewithmine.Thisgroupingbelievethatpost-SovietUkraine
(especiallyaftertheso-called"OrangeRevolution"inlate2004)hasseenanincreasedanti-Russianhistoricalslant,
thathasnurturedagreateracceptanceoffactuallychallengedviews.

Unlikethebullypulpitapproach,manyoftheseindividuals(includingyourstruly)directlyaddressdisagreeablepoints.
Anumberofthemnotethelackoftoleranceamongthoseinhighprofilepositionswhodisagreewiththemandcando
sorathercrudely.Insteadoffeelingfreetocomfortablyexpressthemselvesintheopen,someinthecounter-
Euromaidan/pro-Russiangroupingprefertonotriskbeinglabeleda"Kremlintroll",
aftermakingreasonableobservations,withoutcomingclosetousingsuchcharacterizationsas"troll".

Attimes,anacademicstandingcanhavetheappearanceasanunofficiallicensetolaunchfaultydiatribes.Howcan
thisaspectinfluencetheteachingenvironment?Insomeacademicsettings(notall),astudent(prospectiveor
otherwise)infieldslikehistory,politicalstudiesandjournalism,mightunderstandablybeinclinedtoseethatakindof
selfcensorshipmightbeneededtobetteradvance.Unlikethehardsciencesofpreciseformulas,there'smorewiggle
roomintheliberalartstoshortchangeavalidperspectivethat'sunpopularwiththepredominatingview.

InNorthAmerica,theacademicandnon-academiclikesofAlexanderMotylofRutgersUniversityandSerhiiPlokhiiof
HarvardUniversity,aremorelikelytogetmassmediaactionoverotherswithadifferentoveralltake.I'mhard
pressedtorecallanyoneatRutgersand/orHarvardwho'veamassmediaopinionpieceindirectoppositiontoMotyl
andPlokhii.

Plokhiiwasn'tchallengedwhenhemadesome(putmildly)questionablecommentsinafeaturedQ&AwithStar
journalistOliviaWardthispastFebruary29.ContrarytoPlokhii,inthelead-uptoUkrainianPresidentViktor
Yanukovych'souster,publicopinionpollsinUkraineregularlyshowedadifferenceofwithin10%andinsomeinstances
avirtualtie,orslightsupportfavoringeithertheEUortheRussianinvolvedEurasianEconomicUnion.It'sfaultyto
judgetheprevailingmoodinUkraineonwhichgroupmustersthelargeststreetdemonstrationinKiev.

WardandPlokhiiengageinrevisionismwhensuggestingthatRussiawastheprimaryinstigatoroftensioninUkraine.
TheKremlinandthethenUkrainiangovernmentweren'tagainstthreeway(Russia,UkraineandEU)talksonhowto
bestdevelopUkraine.Onthisscore,theWestplayedmoreofthezerosumgame.

PlokhiicanbelegitimatelysecondguessedforsayingthattheCossacks(inwhat'snowmoderndayUkraine)had
unitedunderIvanMazepa,whenhechosetoopposeRussia.NumeroushistoricalaccountsnoteMazepa'sdownfall
beingpartlyattributedtothelackofsupporthereceived(fromCossacksandothers)intheareaheoversaw,after
hischangedallegiancefromRussiatoSwedenandPoland.

Inseveralinstances,MotylhasbeenfeaturedinNewsweekandTheWallStreetJournal.Hehasablogat
avenuedominatedbyaneocontoneolibleaningslant,favoringanti-Russianopinionsoverpro-Russianthoughts.

Inarecentblogpost,MotylhighlightsVladimirZhirinovsky'sstatureasasignofafascistRussia.Motylisreluctant
tocategorizepost-SovietUkraineasfascist,despiteitsissuingofstampshonoringStepanBandera,theelevationof
ParubiyasRadaheadandthelevelofpost-Yanukovychperiodviolence,inKievregimecontrolledUkraineagainst
counter-Euromaidanindividuals.

PresentdayRussiadoesn'tformallyhonorAndreyVlasov,whoinWWII,ledanarmyofcapturedRussiansoldiersina
nominalalliancewithNaziGermany.Vlasov'strackrecordisn'tasnegativeaswhathasbeenassociatedwith
Bandera.(ThetenuousstateofrelationsbetweenVlasovandBanderaisanotherintricatefacettotheRussian-
Ukrainianrelationship.IrecallhistorianJohnArmstrongandsomeothersnotingthatupto30%-40%ofVlasov's
personnelwereethnicUkrainians.Bandera'sforcesweregreatlycomprisedofGalicianUkrainians.Therewerealsothe
manyRussiansandUkrainianswhofoughtontheSovietside.)

AsforZhirinovsky,asubstantialenoughnumberseemtoviewhimasacrudeshtikcomicwithlimitedpolitical
influence.In2002,hedrewanenthusiasticaudienceinBrooklyn'sBrightonBeach.ABelarusian-JewishMD
acquaintancewhoisZionistinoutlookandsensitivetoanti-Jewishbigotry,toldmethathefindsZhirinovsky
entertainingandthathe'dpaytoseehimspeaklive.(Zhirinovsky'sfatherwasJewish.)Igatherfromtheseinstances
thatZhirinovskyisn'tforthepoliticallycorrect,whilehehasfoundanicheasanacceptableenoughpersonality,fora
noticeablenumberofpeoplewhoaren'tnecessarilyextreme.Atlastnotice,Zhirinovskyisn'tinvolvedwithanymilitias
harboringneo-Naziviews.

Theseobservationsaremadewithoutmeaningtogivehimacompletepass.Thoseopposedtoanti-Russian
propagandaatornearthedegreeofbigotryaren'tdoingtheircauserightwithinconsistency.

Motyl'sinfatuationwiththeimageofRussiaandfascismisindicatedinanotherblogpostofhis,withareferenceto
BenitoMussoliniandVladimirPutin.Putinhasanappointedinnercircleandmakesdecisionsastheheadofstate.
WhatprivatelygoesonbetweenPutinandhiscabinetisn'tsowellknown.ArecentfeatureinTheAtlanticreveals
thatObamahasmadedecisionsagainsthisadvisers.DoesthatmakeObamaaversionofMussolini?Motyl'sreference
ofPutinwithMussoliniisoffthemark.MuchunliketheItaliandictator,Putinhasopenlyexchangedviewswithpeople
whodisagreewithhimanddoesn'tbitewhathecan'tchew.

WitnesstheSyrianandUkrainianscenarios.TheKremlinassistedSyriangovernmentwasontheoffensivebefore
RussiacommittedtoaSyrianCivilWarceasefireandareducedRussiamilitarypresenceinSyria.Likewise,thepro-
RussianrebelsineasternUkrainelookedliketheycould'vegainedmoreterritory,beforeRussiacommitteditselftothe
MinskIIceasefireagreement.Libya,EthiopiaandGreeceposednothreattoItaly.AstheypertaintoRussia,the
morerecentSyrianandUkrainiansituationsaremuchdifferent.

TheRussianmilitarysupporttotheSyriangovernmentincludesthematterofaworseoptionthatcanblowover
beyondSyria.Specifically,SyriansituatedterroristshavingRussiaasoneoftheirmaintargets,aswellaspriorUS
actionsinIraqandSyria,whichhaveproducedsomenegativeresults.

Crimeaconcernsapro-RussianmajorityopposedtotheoverthrowofademocraticallyelectedUkrainianpresident,
followedbyaseriesofincreasedanti-Russianadvocacy.TheDonbasssituationinvolvesmanyinthatterritorywith
closetiestoRussia,whoaren'tcomfortablewiththepost-YanukovychKievbasedrule.

IncomparisontoUkraine,thereasonableperceptionofamoresecureandeconomicallybetteroffRussiaisamain
elementofthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianstance.Whilenotnecessarilybeinganti-Western,thisperspective
seeslimitsinwhattheWestiswillingtoofferUkraine.

TheCounterPerspectiveattheIvyLeagueLevel

FromtheFortRussblog,IwasinformedofalectureatBrownUniversitybyStanislavByshokoftheCIS-Europe
MonitoringOrganization.Theredoesn'tappeartobeanonlinevideoofthisevent.Myresponsetohisaddress(as
postedbyFortRuss)includesomeofwhatIsaidinmyStrategicCultureFoundationpieceofthispastSeptember
29.

Byshokcould'vementionedthat"KievanRus"isalatterdayacademiccharacterizationusedtodescribe"Rus"and
thataNovgorodprince,Oleg,movedhismainlocaletoKiev,ataboutthetimethatmanybegintheperiodknownas
"KievanRus".In1862,Russiaformallyacknowledgedits1,000yearexistencebasedoutofNovgorod.

KievwastobecometheleadingRuscity.BeforetheMongolsubjugationofRus,Kievwasshowingadecreasein
influence.Backthen,thereweresignsthatterritoryincontemporarynorthwesternRussiawouldbecometheleading
Rusbase.ThislandwasgeographicallymoreaccessibletotheleadingWesternpowers.WithinRus,therewere
effortstodevelopthatterritory.

WhenhistoricallyhypingRussian-Ukrainiandifferences,the"svidomites"highlightAndreyBogolyubsky'sattackonKiev
in1169.(SvidomiteisaderisivelyusedtermtodescribeUkrainiannationalistswithananti-Russianlean.)
Bogolyubsky'sactionshouldbearguablyseenmoreassomethingakintoWilliamSherman'sattackonAtlantainthe
formofacivilwar,thanaforeignpowerattackingadifferententity.CreditedwithdevelopingSuzdal(nearMosocw),
BogolyubskyhadadynasticclaimtotheKievthrone,withhisgrandfatherbeingafamousKievcrownprince.

Thepro-Russiancommunityinpost-SovietUkrainewaswillingtoliveinaseparateUkrainianstate.Thiswillingness
wascompromisedwiththeactiontakenintheoverthrowofYanukovychandtheelevatedinfluenceofanti-Russian
leaningproponents.

IremainsomewhatmoreupbeatthansomeothersonthefutureofRussian-Ukrainianrelations.Someoncebitterrival
nationshaveputtheirpastdifferencesaside.ByshoksuggeststhattheimportanceofRussiacanleadtoalessened
Westernenthusiasmforpro-KievregimecontrolledUkraine.Anotherfactorcanincludeagrowingrealizationthatthe
Kievregimehasn'tbeensovirtuous.Inoneofhismorerealistmoments,USPresidentBarackObamasaid(in
hisexchangewithJeffreyGoldberginTheAtlantic)thatUkrainemeansmoretoRussiathanitdoestheWest.

MichaelAverkoisaNewYorkbasedindependentforeignpolicyanalystandmediacritic.Thisarticleisaclosely
relatedversionofthetwopartfeature,whichappearedattheStrategicCultureFoundation'swebsiteonMay
7and8.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:LubomyrLuciuk<lluciuk@cogeco.ca>
Date:2016-05-0910:21GMT-04:00
Subject:anti-SemiticandUkrainophobicimagecirculatedbytheRussians(captionreads:"Ukrainian
Nationalists")
To:

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/08/201602:10:14AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: TrumpandObama:ANighttoRemember-TheNewYorker

http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/trump-and-obama-a-night-to-remember

TrumpandObama:ANighttoRemember

Atthe2011WhiteHouseCorrespondents'Associationdinner,Trumpshumiliationinthefaceof
Obamasjibesseemedabsolute,andveryvisible.PHOTOGRAPHBYJOSHUAROBERTS/
BLOOMBERGVIAGETTY

Once,andonlyonce,in2011,haveIattendedtheannualWhiteHouseCorrespondentsAssociationdinnerinWashington,
D.C.,onthegrounds,asIexplainedthen,thatVoltaireissaidtohavecitedwhenhedeclinedasecondinvitationtoanorgy:
onceaphilosopher,twiceapervert.Luckilyforthephilosopherinme,itturnedouttobeanauspiciousnight.Notonly,as
wedidnotknowthen,wasPresidentObamainthemidstoftheoperationthatwouldleadshortlytoOsamabinLadens
killingitwasalsothenightwhen,despitethatpreoccupation,thePresidenttookapartDonaldTrump,plasticpieceby
orangepart,andthenrefusedtoputhimbacktogetheragain.

Trumpwasthenattheheightofhisunimaginablyuglymarketingofbirtherfantasies,and,justdaysbefore,thestateof
Hawaiihad,atthePresidentsrequest,releasedObamaslong-formbirthcertificateinordertoend,ortrytoend,the
nonsense.Havingreferredtothatact,hethengentlybutacutelymockedTrumpsPresidentialambitions:Iknowthathes
takensomeflacklatelynooneisproudertoputthisbirth-certificatemattertorestthantheDonald.Andthatsbecausehe
canfinallygetbacktotheissuesthatmatter,like:didwefakethemoonlanding?WhatreallyhappenedinRoswell?And
whereareBiggieandTupac?ThePresidentwenton,Weallknowaboutyourcredentialsandbreadthofexperience.For
exampleno,seriouslyjustrecently,inanepisodeofCelebrityApprenticetherewaslaughteratthementionofthe
programsname.Obamaexplainedthat,whenateamdidnotimpress,TrumpdidntblameLilJonorMeatloafyoufired
GaryBusey.Andthesearethekindsofdecisionsthatwouldkeepmeupatnight.

Whatwasreallymemorableabouttheevent,though,wasTrumpsresponse.Seatedafewtablesawayfromusmagazine
scribes,Trumpshumiliationwasasabsolute,andasvisible,asanyIhaveeverseen:hisheadsetinplace,likeamanina
pillory,hebarelymovedoralteredhisexpressionaswaveafterwaveoflaughterstruckhim.Therewasnotatraceof
feigninggoodhumorabouthim,notanounceofthenormalpoliticians,orAmericanregularguysHey,goodoneonme!
attitudethatthick-skinnedcheerfulnessthatalmostallAmericanpublicpeoplelearn,howeverpainfully,tocultivate.No
headbobbingorhand-clappingorchin-shakingorsheepishgrinninghesatperfectlystill,chintight,inlocked,unmovable
rage.Ifhehadnotjustembarkedonsouglyanexerciseinpureracism,onemightalmosthavefeltsorryforhim.

Somedaysomeonemaywellwriteakindofmicro-historyofthatnight,ashistoriansnowarewonttodo,asapivotin
Americanlife,bothatriumphofObamasownparticularandenvelopingformofcoolandasharbingerofwell,ofwhat
exactly?AlotdependsonwhathappensnextwiththeDonaldandhisfollowers.Certainly,thenotionthatTrumpsrise,
howeverlongitlasts,isaproductofaspecialskill,orcircumstance,oranewnationalmood,isabsurd.Trumpismisa
permanentpartofAmericanlifeinoneformoranother,withonevoiceoranotherblaringitout.Atanymomentinour
modernhistory,someformofpopulistnationalismhasalwaysheldsomesignificantsharewhetherfiveortenpercent
ofthepopulation.Amongembitteredwhitemen,Trumpsbase,ithasoftenheldasharemuchlargerthanthat.Trumpis
notofferinganythingthatwasnotofferedbeforehim,ofteninidenticallanguageandwithasimilarlyincoherentpolitical
program,byPatBuchananorRossPerot,byGeorgeWallaceorBarryGoldwater,orwaybackwhenbyFatherCoughlinor
HueyLong.Populistnationalismisnotaneruptiveresponsetoanewconditionof2015itisaperennialideological
position,deeplyrootedinthenatureofmodernity:asocialclassseesitsperceiveddisplacementastheresultofadouble
conspiracyofoutsidersandlitists.Theoutsidersareswampingus,andtheinsidersaremockingusthisideologyaltersits
localcolorascircumstanceschange,buttheessentialcoreisalwaysthere.Theylookdownonusandtheyhavenorightto
lookdownonus.Indeed,thepoliticsofTrump,farfrombeinginanywaynew,areexactlythepoliticsofHuckFinns
drunkenfatherinHuckleberryFinn:Callthisagovment!Justlookatitandseewhatitslike....Amancantgethis
rightsinagovmentlikethis.Widespreaddissatisfactionwithallprofessionalpoliticians,acertaintyofhavingbeensold
out,afeelingofcompletealienationfrombothpoliticalpartiesNotadimesworthofdifferencebetweenthemwas
GeorgeWallacesformulation,ahalfcenturyagothesearepermanentintuitionsoftheAmericanaggrieved.Thefeelings
maybesomewhataggravatedbybadtimes,oralleviatedbygoodones,butattheheightoftheprosperousfiftiesa
significantproportionofAmericanswerepersuadedthattheentiregovernmentwasinthehandsofsaboteursandtraitorsat
thepayofaforeignpower,whileinthestillmoreprosperousninetiesasimilarfactionwaspersuadedthattheliberal
Presidentwasactuallyacokedealerwhohadmurderedafriend.

Norisitatallsurprisingtofindabillionairebusinessmanrepresentingthisideology,becauseitisnotreallymembersofthe
economiclitewhoareitsvillainsitistheeducatedlite,andtheuneducatedoutsiders,whoare.Itis,onthehistorical
record,muchmorearesponsetotheceaselessanxietiesofmodernlifethantoanyfinancialangstofthemoment.Probably
thebeststudentofthismodernideologyistheconservativehistorianJohnLukacs,whose2005bookDemocracyAnd
Populism:FearandHatredmakesclearhowdifferentthenationalistformulaisfrompatriotismproperlysocalled:itrests
notonasenseofprideinplaceorbackgroundbutinanintensesenseofvictimization.Thecryofthegenuinepatriotis,
Leaveusalonetobethepeoplewehavealwaysbeen.Thepopulistnationalistcries,Wehavebeencheatedofourbirthright,
andtheLeaderwillgiveitback.

Theideologyisalwaysavailableitjustchangesitsagentsfromtimetotime.

AndthisiswherememoriesofthePresidentsperformancecomeintoplayandtakeonapotencythatonemightnothave
understoodatthetime.Forthepoliticsofpopulistnationalismarealmostentirelythepoliticsoffelthumiliationthepolitics
ofshame.Andonecanthelpbutsuspectthat,onthatnight,Trumpsownsenseofpublichumiliationbecameso
overwhelmingthathedecided,perhapsatfirstunconsciously,thathewould,somehow,gethisownbackperhapseven
pursuethePresidencyafterall,nomatterhownihilisticallyorabsurdly,andredeemhimself.Thoughhegaveupthehuntfor
officeinthatcampaign,itdoesnotseemtoofar-fetchedtoimaginethattherageLukacssfearandhatredimplantedin
himthatnighthasfuelledhimeversince.Itwasalreadyeasytosenseatthetimethatsomethingverystrangehadhappened
thattheusualAmericanritualoftheroastandtheroastedhadbeenweirdlyanduniquelydisrupted.Butthe
consequenceswerehardtoimagine.Themicro-historyofthatnightyettobewrittenmightbedevotedlargelytothedouble
lifeofBarackObamaascoolcomedianandquietcommanderoritmightbedevotedtothemomentwhennewlifewas
fedintoanoldideology,whenTrumpsambitionssuddenlyturnedovertothepotentpoliticsofshameandvengeance.His
evenpartialtriumphintheprimarystillseemsunlikelybutstrangerjokeshavebeenplayedonAmericanphilosophersover
thecenturies.

Signupforthedailynewsletter:thebestofTheNewYorkereveryday.
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/08/201601:22:25PM
To: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Subject: AmericaHasNeverBeenSoRipeforTyranny--NYMag.AndrewSullivan

AmericaHasNeverBeenSoRipeforTyranny

Democraciesend

whentheyaretoodemocratic.

Andrightnow,Americaisabreedinggroundfortyranny.

IllustrationbyZoharLazar

Asthisdystopianelectioncampaignhasunfolded,mymindkeepsbeingtuggedbyapassageinPlatosRepublic.Ithas
unsettledevensurprisedmefromthemomentIfirstreaditingraduateschool.Thepassageisfromthepartofthe
dialoguewhereSocratesandhisfriendsaretalkingaboutthenatureofdifferentpoliticalsystems,howtheychangeover
time,andhowonecanslowlyevolveintoanother.AndSocratesseemedprettyclearononesoberingpoint:thattyranny
isprobablyestablishedoutofnootherregimethandemocracy.WhatdidPlatomeanbythat?Democracy,forhim,I
discovered,wasapoliticalsystemofmaximalfreedomandequality,whereeverylifestyleisallowedandpublicofficesare
filledbyalottery.Andthelongerademocracylasted,Platoargued,themoredemocraticitwouldbecome.Itsfreedoms
wouldmultiplyitsequalityspread.Deferencetoanysortofauthoritywouldwithertoleranceofanykindofinequality
wouldcomeunderintensethreatandmulticulturalismandsexualfreedomwouldcreateacityoracountrylikeamany-
coloredcloakdecoratedinallhues.

Thisrainbow-flagpolity,Platoargues,is,formanypeople,thefairestofregimes.Thefreedominthatdemocracyhasto
beexperiencedtobebelievedwithshameandprivilegeinparticularemergingovertimeasanathema.Butitis
inherentlyunstable.Astheauthorityofelitesfades,asEstablishmentvaluescedetopopularones,viewsandidentitiescan
becomesomagnificentlydiverseastobemutuallyuncomprehending.Andwhenallthebarrierstoequality,formaland
informal,havebeenremovedwheneveryoneisequalwhenelitesaredespisedandfulllicenseisestablishedtodo
whateveronewants,youarriveatwhatmightbecalledlate-stagedemocracy.Thereisnokowtowingtoauthorityhere,
letalonetopoliticalexperienceorexpertise.

Theveryrichcomeunderattack,asinequalitybecomesincreasinglyintolerable.Patriarchyisalsodismantled:Wealmost
forgottomentiontheextentofthelawofequalityandoffreedomintherelationsofwomenwithmenandmenwith
women.Familyhierarchiesareinverted:Afatherhabituateshimselftobelikehischildandfearhissons,andason
habituateshimselftobelikehisfatherandtohavenoshamebeforeorfearofhisparents.Inclassrooms,astheteacher
...isfrightenedofthepupilsandfawnsonthem,sothestudentsmakelightoftheirteachers.Animalsareregardedas
equaltohumanstherichminglefreelywiththepoorinthestreetsandtrytoblendin.Theforeignerisequaltothecitizen.

Anditiswhenademocracyhasripenedasfullyasthis,Platoargues,thatawould-betyrantwilloftenseizehismoment.

Heisusuallyoftheelitebuthasanatureintunewiththetimegivenovertorandompleasuresandwhims,feastingon
plentyoffoodandsex,andrevelinginthenonjudgmentthatisdemocracyscivilreligion.Hemakeshismovebytaking
overaparticularlyobedientmobandattackinghiswealthypeersascorrupt.Ifnotstoppedquickly,hisappetitefor
attackingtherichonbehalfofthepeopleswellsfurther.Heisatraitortohisclassandsoon,hiseliteenemies,shornof
popularlegitimacy,findawaytoappeasehimorareforcedtoflee.Eventually,hestandsalone,promisingtocutthrough
theparalysisofdemocraticincoherence.Itsasifhewereofferingtheaddled,distracted,andself-indulgentcitizensakind
ofrelieffromdemocracysendlesschoicesandinsecurities.Heridesabacklashtoexcesstoomuchfreedomseemsto
changeintonothingbuttoomuchslaveryandoffershimselfasthepersonifiedanswertotheinternalconflictsofthe
democraticmess.Hepledges,aboveall,totakeontheincreasinglydespisedelites.Andasthepeoplethrilltohimasa
kindofsolution,ademocracywillingly,evenimpetuously,repealsitself.

Andso,asIchitchattedovercocktailsataWashingtonofficeChristmaspartyinDecember,andsaw,loomingaboveour
heads,thepulsating,angrytelevisedfaceofDonaldTrumponFoxNews,Icouldnthelpbutfeelalittlenauseapermeate
mystomach.AndasIwatchedfrenziedTrumpralliesonC-SPANinthespring,andsawhimlaywastetofarmore
qualifiedpoliticalpeersinthedebatesbysimplycallingthemnames,thenauseaturnedtodread.Andwhenheseemedto
condonephysicalviolenceasaresponsetopoliticaldisagreement,alarmbellsstartedtoringinmyhead.Platohad
plantedagnawingworryinmymindafewdecadesagoabouttheintrinsicdangeroflate-democraticlife.Itwas
increasinglyhardnottoseeinPlatosvisionamurkyreflectionofourownhyperdemocratictimesandinTrumpa
demagogic,tyrannicalcharacterpluckeddirectlyoutofoneofthefirstbooksaboutpoliticseverwritten.

CoulditbethattheDonaldhasemergedfromthepopulistcircusesofprowrestlingandNewYorkCitytabloids,via
realitytelevisionandTwitter,toprovenotjustPlatobutalsoJamesMadisonright,thatdemocracieshaveeverbeen
spectaclesofturbulenceandcontentionandhaveingeneralbeenasshortintheirlivesastheyhavebeenviolentintheir
deaths?Ishetestingdemocracyssingularweaknessitssusceptibilitytothedemagoguebyblastingthroughthe
firewallsweoncehadinplacetopreventsuchapersonfromseizingpower?OramIoverreacting?

Perhaps.Thenauseacomesandgoes,andtherehavebeendayswhenthenewsalgorithmhasactuallyreassuredmethat
peakTrumphasarrived.Butithasntgoneaway,andneitherhasTrump.Inthewakeofhismostrecentprimary
triumphs,atatimewhenheisperilouslyclosetowinningenoughdelegatestograbtheRepublicannominationoutright,I
thinkwemustconfrontthisdreadandbeclearaboutwhatthiselectionhasalreadyrevealedaboutthefragilityofourway
oflifeandthethreatlate-stagedemocracyisbeginningtoposetoitself.

Plato,ofcourse,wasnotclairvoyant.Hisanalysisofhowdemocracycanturnintotyrannyisacomplexonemorekeyed
towardancientsocietiesthanourown(andcontainsmorewrinklesandeddiesthanIcansummarizehere).Hisdisdainfor
democraticlifewasfueledinnosmallpartbythefactthatademocracyhadexecutedhismentor,Socrates.Andhe
would,Ithink,havebeenastonishedathowAmericandemocracyhasbeenabletothrivewithunprecedentedstability
overthelastcoupleofcenturiesevenasithasbroughtmoreandmorepeopleintoitsembrace.Itremains,inmyview,a
miracleofconstitutionalcraftsmanshipandculturalresilience.ThereisnoplaceIwouldratherlive.Butitisnotimmortal,
norshouldweassumeitisimmunetotheforcesthathaveendangereddemocracysomanytimesinhumanhistory.

PartofAmericandemocracysstabilityisowedtothefactthattheFoundingFathershadreadtheirPlato.Toguardour
democracyfromthetyrannyofthemajorityandthepassionsofthemob,theyconstructedlarge,heftybarriersbetween
thepopularwillandtheexerciseofpower.Votingrightsweretightlycircumscribed.Thepresidentandvice-president
werenottobepopularlyelectedbutselectedbyanElectoralCollege,whoserepresentativeswereselectedbythevarious
states,oftenthroughstatelegislatures.TheSenatesstructure(withtwomembersfromeverystate)wasdesignedto
temperthepowerofthemorepopulousstates,anditstermofoffice(sixyears,comparedwithtwofortheHouse)was
designedtocoolandrestraintemporarypopulistpassions.TheSupremeCourt,pickedbythepresidentandconfirmedby
theSenate,wasthefinalbulwarkagainstanydemocraticfuriesthatmightpercolateupfromtheHouseandthreatenthe
Constitution.Thisseparationofpowerswasdesignedpreciselytocreatesturdyfirewallsagainstdemocraticwildfires.

Overthecenturies,however,manyoftheseundemocraticruleshavebeenweakenedorabolished.Thefranchisehasbeen
extendedfarbeyondpropertiedwhitemen.Thepresidencyisnoweffectivelyelectedthroughpopularvote,withthe
ElectoralCollegealmostalwaysreflectingthenationaldemocraticwill.Andtheseformaldemocraticadvanceswere
accompaniedbyinformalones,asthecultureofdemocracyslowlytookdeeperroot.Foraverylongtime,onlytheelites
ofthepoliticalpartiescametoselecttheircandidatesattheirquadrennialconventions,withthevotelargelyrestrictedto
partyofficialsfromthevariousstates(andoftendecidedin,yes,smoke-filledroomsinlargehotelsuites).Beginninginthe
early1900s,however,thepartiesbeganexperimentingwithprimaries,andafterthechaosofthe1968Democratic
convention,todaysfarmoredemocraticsystembecamethenorm.

DirectdemocracydidntjustelectCongressandthepresidentanymoreitexpandedthenotionofwhomightbequalified
forpublicoffice.Once,candidatesbuiltacareerthroughexperienceinelectedorCabinetpositionsorasmilitary
commanderstheywereeffectivelyselectedbypeerreview.Thatelitistsortingmechanismhasslowlyimploded.In1940,
WendellWillkie,abusinessmanwithnopreviouspoliticaloffice,wontheRepublicannominationforpresident,pledgingto
keepAmericaoutofwarandboastingthathispersonalwealthinoculatedhimagainstcorruption:Iwillbeunder
obligationtonobodyexceptthepeople.HelostbadlytoFranklinD.Roosevelt,butnonetheless,sincethen,nonpolitical
candidateshaveproliferated,fromRossPerotandJesseJackson,toSteveForbesandHermanCain,tothisyearscrop
ofBenCarson,CarlyFiorina,and,ofcourse,DonaldJ.Trump.Thisfurtherwideningofourdemocracyourincreased
opennesstobeingledbyanyoneindeed,ouracceleratingpreferenceforoutsidersisnowalmostcomplete.

Thebarrierstothepopularwill,especiallywhenitcomestochoosingourpresident,arenowalmostnonexistent.In2000,
GeorgeW.BushlostthepopularvoteandwontheelectionthankstoElectoralCollegemathand,moreegregiously,toa
partisanSupremeCourtvote.AlGoreseventualconcessionsparedthenationaconstitutionalcrisis,buttheepisode
generatedwidespreadunease,notjustamongDemocrats.Andthisyear,thedelegatesystemestablishedbyourpolitical
partiesisalsounderassault.TrumphasarguedthatthecandidatewiththemostvotesshouldgettheRepublican
nomination,regardlessoftherulesinplace.Itnowlooksasifhewontevenneedtowinthatargumentthathellbank
enoughdelegatestosecurethenominationuncontestedbutheswonitanyway.FullyhalfofAmericansnowbelieve
thetraditionalnominatingsystemisrigged.

Manycontend,ofcourse,thatAmericandemocracyisactuallyinretreat,closetobeingdestroyedbythevastlymore
unequaleconomyofthelastquarter-centuryandtheabilityoftheveryrichtopurchasepoliticalinfluence.ThisisBernie
Sandersscorecritique.Butthepastfewpresidentialelectionshavedemonstratedthat,infact,moneyfromtheultrarich
hasbeenmostlyadud.BarackObama,whose2008campaignwaspropelledbysmalldonorsandempoweredbythe
internet,blazedthetrailofthemodern-dayinsurrectionist,defeatingtheprohibitivefavoriteintheDemocraticprimaryand
laterhisRepublicanopponent(bothpillarsoftheirpartiesEstablishmentsandbackedbymoneyedelites).In2012,the
fund-raisingpowerbehindMittRomneyavataroftheonepercentfailedtodislodgeObamafromoffice.Andinthis
presidentialcycle,thebreakoutcandidatesofbothpartieshavesoaredwithoutfinancialsupportfromtheelites.Sanders,
whoissustaininghiscampaignallthewaytoCaliforniaonthebacksofsmalldonorsandlargecrowds,is,toputitbluntly,
awalkingrefutationofhisownargument.Trump,ofcourse,isalargelyself-fundingbillionairebutlikeWillkie,he
arguesthathiswealthuniquelyenableshimtoresisttheinfluenceoftherichandtheirlobbyists.Thosedespairingoverthe
influenceofBigMoneyinAmericanpoliticsmustalsoexplaintheswift,humiliatingdemiseofJebBushandthestruggling
EstablishmentcampaignofHillaryClinton.Theevidencesuggeststhatdirectdemocracy,farfrombeingthrottled,is
actuallyintensifyingitsgriponAmericanpolitics.

Noneofthisisnecessarilycauseforalarm,eventhoughitwouldbegivingtheFoundingFatherspalpitations.The
emergenceofthefirstblackpresidentunimaginablebeforeourmoreinclusivedemocracyismiraculous,a
strengthening,ratherthanweakening,ofthesystem.Thedayswhenpartymachinesjustfixedthingsorriggedelectionsare
mercifullydonewith.Thewayinwhichoutsidercandidates,fromObamatoTrumpandSanders,havebroughtmillionsof
newpeopleintotheelectoralprocessisanunmitigatedadvance.Theinclusionofpreviouslyexcludedvoiceshelps,rather
thanimpedes,ourpublicdeliberation.Butitispreciselybecauseofthegreataccomplishmentsofourdemocracythatwe
shouldbevigilantaboutitsspecific,uniquevulnerability:itssusceptibility,instressfultimes,totheappealofashameless
demagogue.

Whatthe21stcenturyaddedtothispicture,itsnowblindinglyobvious,wasmediademocracyinatruly
revolutionaryform.Iflate-stagepoliticaldemocracyhastakentwocenturiestoripen,themediaequivalenttookaround
twodecades,swiftlyerasingalmostanyelitemoderationorcontrolofourdemocraticdiscourse.Theprocesshadits
originsinpartisantalkradioattheendofthepastcentury.Theriseoftheinternetaneventsoswiftandpervasiveits
politicaleffectisonlynowbeginningtobeunderstoodfurtherdemocratizedeverysourceofinformation,dramatically
expandedeachoutletsreadership,andgaveeveryoneaplatform.Alltheoldbarrierstoentrythecostofprintand
paperanddistributioncrumbled.

Somuchofthiswaswelcome.Irelisheditmyselfintheearlyaughts,startingablogandsoonreachingasmanyreaders,if
notmore,assomesmallmagazinesdo.Fustyold-mediainstitutions,grownfatandlazy,deservedadrubbing.Theearly
independentblogospherecorrectedfacts,exposedbias,earnedscoops.Andasthemediummatured,andasFacebook
andTwittertookhold,everyonebecameakindofblogger.Inwaysno20th-centuryjournalistwouldhavebelieved,weall
nowhaveourownvirtualnewspapersonourFacebooknewsfeedsandTwittertimelinespickingstoriesfromcountless
sourcesandcreatingapeer-to-peermediaalmostcompletelyfreeofeditingorinterferencebyelites.Thiswasboundto
makepoliticsmorefluid.Politicalorganizingcallingameeting,fomentingarallytoadvanceacauseusedtobe
extremelylaborious.Nowyoucouldbringtogetheravirtualmassmovementwithasinglewebpage.Itwouldtakeyoua
fewseconds.

Thewebwasalsouniquelycapableofabsorbingotherformsofmedia,conflatinggenresandcategoriesinwaysnever
seenbefore.Thedistinctionbetweenpoliticsandentertainmentbecamefuzzierelectioncoveragebecameevenmore
modeledonsportscastingyourPornhubjostledrightnexttoyourmothersFacebookpage.Thewebsalgorithmsallbut
removedanyeditorialjudgment,andtheeffectsoonhadcablenewsabandoningeventhepretenseofaskingIsthis
relevant?orDowereallyneedtocoverthislive?intherushtowardratingsbonanzas.Intheend,allthesecategories
werereducedtoonething:traffic,measuredfarmoreaccuratelythananyothermediumhadeverdonebefore.

AndwhatmainlyfuelsthisispreciselywhattheFoundersfearedaboutdemocraticculture:feeling,emotion,and
narcissism,ratherthanreason,empiricism,andpublic-spiritedness.Onlinedebatesbecomepersonal,emotional,and
irresolvablealmostassoonastheybegin.GodwinsLawitsonlyamatteroftimebeforeacommentssectionbrings
upHitlerisareflectionofthecollapseofthereasoneddeliberationtheFounderssawasindispensabletoafunctioning
republic.
Yes,occasionalrationalpointsstillflybackandforth,buttherearedramaticallyfewerelitearbiterstoestablishwhichof
thosepointsisactuallytrueorvalidorrelevant.Wehavelostauthoritativesourcesforevenacommonsetoffacts.And
withoutsuchcommonempiricalground,theemotionalcomponentofpoliticsbecomesinflamedandreasonretreatseven
further.Themoreemotivethecandidate,themoresupportersheorshewillget.

Politically,weluckedoutatfirst.Obamawouldneverhavebeennominatedforthepresidency,letaloneelected,ifhe
hadntharnessedthepowerofthewebandthecharismaofhismediacelebrity.Buthewasalso,paradoxically,avery
elitefigure,aformerstateandU.S.senator,aproductofHarvardLawSchool,and,asitturnedout,blessedwitha
preternaturallyrationalandcalmdisposition.Sohehasmasked,temporarily,therealrisksinthesystemthathispioneering
campaignrevealed.HencemanyDemocratsfrustrationwithhim.Thosewhosawinhiscampaigntheseedsof
revolutionarychange,whoweredrawntohimbytheirownmessianicdelusions,cametobebitterlydisappointedbyhis
governingmoderationandpragmatism.

TheclimateObamathrivedin,however,wasalsoripeforfarlessrestrainedopportunists.In2008,SarahPalinemerged
asproofthatanardentRepublican,brandedasanoutsider,tailor-madeforrealityTV,proudofherownignoranceabout
theworld,andreachinganaudiencedirectlythroughonlinemedia,couldalsotriumphinthisnewera.Shewas,itturned
out,aJohntheBaptistforthetruemessiahofconservativepopulism,waitingpatientlyandstrategicallyforhistimeto
come.

Trump,wenowknow,hadbeenconsideringrunningforpresidentfordecades.Thosewhodidntseehimcomingor
kepttreatinghimasajokehadnotyetabsorbedtheprecedentsofObamaandPalinorthepowerofthenewwide-
opensystemtochangetherulesofthepoliticalgame.Trumpwasasunderratedforallof2015asObamawasin2007
andforthesamereasons.HeintuitivelygraspedthevanishingauthorityofAmericanpoliticalandmediaelites,andhehad
longfashionedapublicpersonaperfectlyattunedtoblastpastthem.

Despitehisimmensewealthandinheritedprivilege,Trumphadalwayscultivatedacommontouch.Hedidnothidehis
wealthinthelate-20thcenturyheflaunteditinawaythatconnectedwiththemasses.Helivedtherichmanslifemost
workingmendreamedofendlessglamourandwomen,forexamplewithoutsacrificingawayoftalkingaboutthe
worldthatwouldnotbeoutofplaceontheconstructionsitesheregularlytoured.Hiswasacultofdemocraticaspiration.
His1987book,TheArtoftheDeal,promiseditsreadersapathtoinstantsuccesshisappearancesonTheHoward
SternShowcementedhisappeal.HisfriendshipwithVinceMcMahonofferedhimanearlyentreintotheworldof
professionalwrestling,withitsfusionofsportsandfantasy.Hewasamachomediasuperstar.

OneofthemoreamazingepisodesinSarahPalinsearlypoliticallife,infact,bearsthisout.Shepoppedupinthe
AnchorageDailyNewsasacommercialfishermanfromWasillaonApril3,1996.Palinhadtoldherhusbandshewas
goingtoCostcobuthadsneakedintoJ.C.PenneyinAnchoragetoseeoneIvanaTrump,who,inthewakeofher
divorce,wastoutingherbrandedperfume.WewanttoseeIvana,Palintoldthepaper,becausewearesodesperatein
Alaskaforanysemblanceofglamourandculture.

Trumpassiduouslycultivatedthisimageandtooktorealitytelevisionasanatural.Eachweek,for14seasonsofThe
Apprentice,hewouldlooksomeoneintheeyeandtellthem,Yourefired!Theconversationmosthumanebossesfear
tohavewithanemployeewassomethingTrumpclearlyrelished,andthecrueltybecameentertainment.Inretrospect,itis
clearhewastrainingbothhimselfandhisviewers.Ifyouwanttounderstandwhyafiguresowidelydisliked
nonethelesspowerstowardtheelectionasifhewereapproachingareality-TV-showfinale,looknofurther.Histelevision
tactics,asappliedtopresidentialdebates,wipedoutrivalsusedtoadifferentgame.Andallourreality-TVtraininghas
conditionedustohopehellwinoratleaststayinthegametillthefinalround.Insuchashame-freemedia
environment,theassholesoftenwin.Intheend,yousupportthembecausetheyreassholes.

InEricHoffersclassic1951tract,TheTrueBeliever,hesketchesthedynamicsofagenuinemassmovement.Hewas
thinkingoftheupheavalsinEuropeinthefirsthalfofthecentury,butthebookremainssobering,especiallynow.Hoffers
coreinsightwastolocatethesourceofalltrulymassmovementsinacollectivesenseofacutefrustration.Notdespair,or
revolt,orresignationbutfrustrationsimmeringwithrage.Massmovements,henotes(asdidTocquevillecenturies
beforehim),rarelyarisewhenoppressionormiseryisatitsworst(say,2009)theytendtoappearwhentheworstis
behindusbutthefutureseemsnotsomuchbetter(say,2016).Itiswhenarecoveryfinallygathersspeedandsome
improvementistangiblebutnotyetwidespreadthattheangerbeginstorise.Afterthesufferingofrecessionor
unemployment,anddespitehardworkwithstagnantordwindlingpay,thefuturestretchesaheadwithreliefjustoutof
reach.Whenthosewhohelpedcreatethelastrecessionfacenoconsequencesbutrenewedfabulouswealth,theanger
reachesacrescendo.

Thedeeper,long-termreasonsfortodaysragearenothardtofind,althoughmanyofuseliteshaveshamefullyfound
ourselvesabletoignorethem.Thejobsavailabletotheworkingclassnolongercontainthekindofcraftsmanshipor
satisfactionormeaningthatcantakethestingoutoftheirlowandstagnantwages.Theonce-familiaravenuesfor
socializationthechurch,theunionhall,theVFWhavebecomelessvibrantandsocialisolationmorecommon.
Globaleconomicforceshavepummeledblue-collarworkersmorerelentlesslythanalmostanyothersegmentofsociety,
forcingthemtocompeteagainsthundredsofmillionsofequallyskilledworkersthroughouttheplanet.Nooneaskedthem
inthe1990sifthiswasthefuturetheywanted.Andtheimpacthasbeenmorebrutalthanmanyeconomistspredicted.No
wondersuicideandmortalityratesamongthewhiteworkingpoorarespikingdramatically.

Itisusuallythosewhosepovertyisrelativelyrecent,thenewpoor,whothrobwiththefermentoffrustration,Hoffer
argues.Fundamentalistreligionlongprovidedsomeemotionalsupportforthoseleftbehind(foronething,itinvites
practitionerstodefytheelitesasunholy),butitsinfluencehaswanedasmodernityhaspenetratedalmosteverythingand
thegreatculturewarsofthe1990sand2000shaveendedinarout.Theresulthasbeenamorediversemainstream
culturebutalso,simultaneously,asubculturethatisevenmorealienatedanddespised,andevermoreinfuriatedand
bloody-minded.

Thisisanageinwhichawomanmightsucceedablackmanaspresident,butalsooneinwhichamemberofthewhite
workingclasshasdecliningoptionstomakeadecentliving.Thisisatimewhengaypeoplecanbemarriedin50states,
evenasworking-classfamiliesarehangingbyathread.Itsaperiodinwhichwehavebecomefarmoreawareofthe
historicinjusticesthatstillhauntAfrican-Americansandyetwetreatthedesperateplightoftodayswhiteworkingclassas
anafterthought.Andsolate-stagecapitalismiscreatingarighteous,revolutionaryangerthatlate-stagedemocracyhas
preciouslittleabilitytomoderateorconstrainandhasactuallyhelpedexacerbate.

Forthewhiteworkingclass,havinghadtheirmoralsroundlymocked,theirreligiondeemedprimitive,andtheireconomic
prospectsdecimated,nowfindtheirverygenderandrace,indeedtheverywaytheytalkaboutreality,describedasakind
ofproblemforthenationtoovercome.ThisisjustoneaspectofwhatTrumphasmasterfullysignaledaspolitical
correctnessrunamok,orwhatmightbebetterdescribedasthenewlyrigidprogressivepassionforracialandsexual
equalityofoutcome,ratherthantheliberalaspirationtomereequalityofopportunity.

Muchofthenewlyenergizedlefthascometoseethewhiteworkingclassnotasalliesbutprimarilyasbigots,misogynists,
racists,andhomophobes,therebycondemningthoseoftenatthenear-bottomrungoftheeconomytothebottomrungof
thecultureaswell.AstrugglingwhitemanintheheartlandisnowtoldtocheckhisprivilegebystudentsatIvyLeague
colleges.Evenifyouagreethattheprivilegeexists,itshardnottoempathizewiththeobjectofthisdisdain.These
working-classcommunities,alreadyalienated,hearhowcantheynot?theglibandeasydismissalsofwhitestraight
menastheultimatesourceofallourwoes.Theysmellthecondescensionandthebroadgeneralizationsaboutthemall
ofwhichwouldberepellentifdirectedatracialminoritiesandseethemselves,inHofferswords,disinheritedand
injuredbyanunjustorderofthings.

Andsotheywait,andtheysteam,andtheylashout.Thiswaspartoftheemotionalforceoftheteaparty:notjustthe
advancementofracialminorities,gays,andwomenbutthesimultaneousdemonizationofthewhiteworking-classworld,
itscultureandwayoflife.Obamaneverintendedthis,buthebecameasymboltomanyofthisculturalmarginalization.
TheBlackLivesMatterleftstokedthefiresstillfurthersodidthegayleft,forwhomthewordmagnanimityseems
unknown,eveninthewakeofstunningsuccesses.AndastheteapartysweptthroughWashingtonin2010,asits
representativesrepeatedlyheldthegovernmentbudgethostage,threatenedtheverycreditoftheU.S.,andrefusedto
holdhearingsonaSupremeCourtnominee,theAmericanpoliticalandmediaEstablishmentmostlychosetointerpret
suchbehaviorassomethingotherthanunprecedented.ButTrumpsawwhatothersdidnt,justasHoffernoted:The
frustratedindividualandthetruebelievermakebetterprognosticatorsthanthosewhohavereasontowantthe
preservationofthestatusquo.

Massmovements,Hofferargues,aredistinguishedbyafacilityformake-believecredulity,areadinesstoattempt
theimpossible.What,onewonders,couldbemoreimpossiblethansuddenlyvettingeverysinglevisitortotheU.S.for
tracesofIslamicbelief?Whatcouldbemoremake-believethanabig,beautifulwallstretchingacrosstheentireMexican
border,paidforbytheMexicangovernment?Whatcouldbemorecredulousthanarguingthatwecouldpayoffour
nationaldebtthroughaglobaltradewar?Inaconventionalpoliticalparty,andinarationalpoliticaldiscourse,suchideas
wouldbelaughedoutofcontention,theirself-evidentimpossibilitydisqualifyingthemfromseriousconsideration.Inthe
emotionalfervorofademocraticmassmovement,however,theseimpossibilitiesbecomeiconsofhope,symbolsofanew
wayofconductingpolitics.Theirveryimpossibilityistheirappeal.

Butthemostpowerfulengineforsuchamovementthethingthatgetsitofftheground,shapesandsolidifiesand
entrenchesitisalwaystheevocationofhatred.Itis,asHofferputit,themostaccessibleandcomprehensiveofall
unifyingelements.AndsoTrumplaunchedhiscampaignbycallingundocumentedMexicanimmigrantsapopulation
largelyofrapistsandmurderers.HemovedontoMuslims,bothathomeandabroad.Hehasnowaddedtothese
enemieswithslybrilliancetheRepublicanEstablishmentitself.AndwhatmakesTrumpuniquelydangerousinthe
historyofAmericanpoliticswithfarbroadernationalappealthan,say,HueyLongorGeorgeWallaceishis
responsetoallthreeenemies.Itsthethreatofbluntcoercionanddominance.

AndsoafterdemonizingmostundocumentedMexicanimmigrants,hethenvowedtoroundupanddeportall11millionof
thembyforce.Theyhavetogowasthetypicallybluntphraseheusedandsomehowpeopledidntimmediately
recognizethemonstroushistoricalechoes.Thesheerscaleofthepoliceandmilitaryoperationthatthispolicywouldentail
bogglesthemind.Worse,heemphasized,afterthemassmurderinSanBernardino,thateventheMuslim-Americansyou
knowintimatelymayturnaroundandmassacreyouatanyjuncture.Theressomethinggoingon,hedeclaimed
ominously,givinglegitimacytothemosthystericalanduglyofhumanimpulses.

Tocallthisfascismdoesntdojusticetofascism.Fascismhad,insomemeasure,anideologyandoccasionalcoherence
thatTrumputterlylacks.Buthismovementisclearlyfascisticinitsdemonizationofforeigners,itshypingofathreatbya
domesticminority(MuslimsandMexicansarethenewJews),itsfocusonasinglesupremeleaderofwhatcanonlybe
calledacult,anditsdeepbeliefinviolenceandcoercioninademocracythathasheretoforereliedondebateand
persuasion.ThisistheWeimaraspectofourcurrentmoment.JustastheEnglishCivilWarendedwithadictatorship
underOliverCromwell,andtheFrenchRevolutiongaveusNapoleonBonaparte,andtheunstablechaosofRussian
democracyyieldedtoVladimirPutin,andthemostrecentburstofEgyptiandemocracysettheconditionsforGeneralel-
Sisiscoup,soourparalyzed,emotionalhyperdemocracyleadsthestumbling,frustrated,angryvotertowardthe
chimericalpanaceaofTrump.

Hisresponsetohisthirdvauntedenemy,theRNC,isalsolacedwiththethreatofviolence.Therewillberiotsin
Clevelandifhedoesntgethisway.TheRNCwillhavearoughtimeifitdoesntcooperate.PaulRyan,Idontknow
himwell,butImsureImgoingtogetalonggreatwithhim,Trumphassaid.AndifIdont?Hesgonnahavetopaya
bigprice,okay?ThepastmonthhasseendelegatestotheClevelandconventionreceivingdeaththreatsoneofTrumps
hatchetmen,RogerStone,hasalreadythreatenedtopublishthehotelroomsofdelegateswhorefusetovoteforTrump.

AndwhatsnotableaboutTrumpssupportersispreciselywhatonewouldexpectfrommembersofamassmovement:
theirintenseloyalty.Trumpistheirman,howeverinarticulatetheyarewhenexplainingwhy.Hestough,hesreal,and
theyvegothisback,especiallywhenheisattackedbyallthepeopletheyhavecometodespise:liberalDemocratsand
traditionalRepublicans.Atrallies,wheneveraprotesterishauledout,youcanalmostsensetherisingrageofthecollective
identityventingitselfagainstalonedissenterandfindingacatharsisofsortsinthebruteforceamobcaninflictonan
individual.Trumptellsthecrowdhedliketopunchaprotesterinthefaceorhavehimcarriedoutonastretcher.No
modernpoliticianwhohascomethisclosetothepresidencyhaschampionedviolenceinthisway.Itwouldbe
disqualifyingifourhyperdemocracyhadntalreadyabolisheddisqualifications.

Andwhileacriticalelementof20th-centuryfascismitsorganizedstreetviolenceismissing,youcanbegintoseeit
inembryonicform.ThephalanxofbodyguardsaroundTrumpgrowsdailyplainclothesbouncersinthecrowdshave
emergedaspseudo-copstocontaintheincipientunresthiscandidacywillonlycontinuetoprovokesupportershave
attackedhecklerswithsometimesstunningferocity.EverytimeTrumplegitimizespotentialviolencebyhissupportersby
sayingitcomesfromaloveofcountry,hesowstheseedsforseriouscivilunrest.

Trumpcelebratestorturetheonetrueloveoftyrantseverywherenotbecauseitallegedlyproducesintelligencebut
becauseithasademonstrationeffect.AthisrallieshehasrecountedthemythicalactsofoneGeneralJohnJ.Pershing
whenconfrontedwithanallegedoutbreakofIslamistterrorisminthePhilippines.Pershing,inTrumpstelling,linesup50
Muslimprisoners,swishesaseriesofbulletsinthecorpsesoffreshlyslaughteredpigs,andordershismentoputthose
bulletsintheirriflesandkill49ofthecapturedMuslimmen.Hesparesonecaptivesolelysohecangobackandtellhis
friends.Endoftheterrorismproblem.

Insomeways,thisstorycontainsalltheelementsofTrumpscoreappeal.Thevexingproblemoftacklingjihadistterror?
Tortureandmurderenoughterroristsandtheywillsimplygoaway.Thecomplicatedissueofundocumentedworkers,
drawnbyjobsmanyAmericanswonttake?Deporteverysingleoneofthemandbuildawalltostoptherest.Fuck
politicalcorrectness.AsoneofhissupporterstoldanobtusereporteratarallywhenaskedifhesupportedTrump:Hell
yeah!Hesno-bullshit.Allballs.Fuckyouallballs.ThatswhatImabout.Andthereinliestheappealoftyrantsfromthe
beginningoftime.Fuckyouallballs.Irrationalitywithmuscle.

Theracialaspectofthisisalsounmissable.WhentheenemywithinisMexicanorMuslim,andyourranksareextremely
white,yousetuparubricforaracialconflict.AndwhatstrulyterrifyingaboutTrumpisthathedoesnotseemtoshrink
fromsuchaprospectherelishesit.

For,likealltyrants,heisutterlylackinginself-control.Sleepingahandfulofhoursanight,impulsivelytweetingintheearly
hours,improvisingmadlyonsubjectsheknowsnothingabout,Trumprantsandravesashesurfsanentirelyreactive
medialandscape.Onceagain,Platohadhistemperamentdown:Atyrantisamannothavingcontrolofhimself[who]
attemptstoruleothersamanfloodedwithfearandloveandpassion,whilehavinglittleornoabilitytorestrainor
moderatethemarealslavetothegreatestfawning,amanwhothroughouthisentirelife...isfulloffear,overflowing
withconvulsionsandpains.Soundfamiliar?Trumpisasmercurialandasunpredictableandasemotionalasthedaily
Twitterstream.Andwearecontemplatinggivinghimaccesstothenuclearcodes.

ThosewhobelievethatTrumpsugly,thuggishpopulismhasnochanceofevermakingittotheWhiteHouseseemtome
tobemissingthisdynamic.Neo-fascistmovementsdonotadvancegraduallybypersuasiontheyfirsttransformtheterms
ofthedebate,createanewmovementbasedonuntrammeledemotion,takeoverexistinginstitutions,andthenruthlessly
exploitevents.Andsocurrentpollnumbersareonlyreassuringifyouignorethepotentialimpactofsudden,external
eventsaneconomicdownturnoraterrorattackinamajorcityinthemonthsbeforeNovember.Ihavenodoubt,for
example,thatTrumpissincereinhisdesiretocuttheheadoffISIS,whateverthatcanpossiblymean.Butitremainsa
factthattheinterestsofISISandtheTrumpcampaignarenowperfectlyaligned.Fearisalwaysthewould-betyrants
greatestally.

AndthoughTrumpsunfavorablesareextraordinarilyhigh(around65percent),heisalreadyshowingsignsofchanginghis
tune,pivoting(fitfully)tothemorepresidentialmodeheenvisagesdeployinginthegeneralelection.Isuspectthiswill,to
somefoolsonthefence,comeasakindofrelief,andmayopentheirmindstohimoncemore.Tyrants,likemobbosses,
knowthevalueofasmile:Preciselybecauseofthefearhesalreadygenerated,youdesperatelywanttobelieveinhisnew
warmth.Itspartofthegood-cop-bad-coproutinethatwillbefamiliartoanyonewhohasstudiedthepresidencyof
VladimirPutin.

Withhisappealtohisownbaselockedup,Trumpmaywellalsoshifttomoremoderatestancesonsocialissueslike
abortion(healreadywantstoamendtheGOPplatformtoalessdraconianposition)orgayandeventransgenderrights.
Heisconsistentinhisinconsistency,because,forhim,winningiswhatcounts.HehashadarealcaseagainstTedCruz
thatthesenatorhasnobaseoutsideideological-conservativequartersandisevenlesslikelytowinageneralelection.
Morepotently,TrumphasaworryinglystrongargumentagainstClintonherselforcrookedHillary,ashenowdubs
her.

Hispropositionisasimpleone.RememberJamesCarvillescorequestioninthe1992election:Changeversusmoreof
thesame?ThatsentimentonceelectedClintonshusbanditcouldalsoelectheropponentthisfall.IfyoulikeAmericaas
itis,voteClinton.Afterall,shehasbeenamemberoftheAmericanpoliticaleliteforaquarter-century.Clinton,moreover,
hasshownnoabilitytoinspireorrallyanyonebutherlongtimeloyalists.Sheislostinthenewmediaandhasstruggledto
putawaya74-year-oldsocialistwhoisbarelyamemberofherparty.Herownunfavorablesareonly11pointslower
thanTrumps(farhigherthanObamas,JohnKerrys,orAlGoreswereatthispointintherace),andthemoreshe
campaigns,thehigherherunfavorablesgo(includinginherownparty).ShehasaGoreproblem.Theideaofwelcoming
herintoyourlivingroomforthenextfouryearscanseem,attimes,positivelymasochistic.

Itmaybethatdemographicswillsaveus.Americaisnolongeranoverwhelminglywhitecountry,andTrumpssignature
issueillegalimmigrationisthesourceofhisstrengthbutalsoofhisweakness.Nonetheless,itsworthnotinghow
pollingmodelshaveconsistentlymisreadthebreadthofhissupport,especiallyinthesepastfewweekshewilllikelybend
overbackwardtoincludeminoritiesinhisfallcampaignandthoseconvincedhecannotbringawholenewswathofwhite
votersbackintothepoliticalprocessshouldremember2004,whenKarlRovehelpedengineeranti-gay-marriagestate
constitutionalamendmentsthatincreasedconservativevoterturnout.AllTrumpneedsisasliverofminorityvotesinspired
bythenewenergyofhiscampaignandtheallegeddominanceoftheObamacoalitioncouldcrack(especiallywithout
Obama).ThroughouttheWestthesepastfewyears,fromFrancetoBritainandGermany,thepollshavekeptmissingthe
powerofright-winginsurgency.

WereTrumptowintheWhiteHouse,thedefensesagainsthimwouldbeweak.HewouldlikelybringaGOPmajorityin
theHouse,andRepublicansintheSenatewouldbesubjectedtoalmightypopularfuryiftheystoodinhisway.The4-4
stalemateintheSupremeCourtwouldbreakinTrumpsfavor.(Inlargepart,ofcourse,thiswouldbeduetotheGOPs
unprecedenteddecisiontoholdavacancyopenforthepeopletodecide,anothermassivehyperdemocraticbreachin
ourconstitutionaldefenses.)AndifTrumpspoliciesarecheckedbyotherbranchesofgovernment,howmighthereact?
JustlookathisresponsetotherulesoftheGOPnominationprocess.Hesnotinterestedinrules.Andhebarely
understandstheConstitution.Inonerevealingmomentearlierthisyear,whenaskedwhathewoulddoifthemilitary
refusedtoobeyanillegalordertotortureaprisoner,Trumpsimplyinsistedthatthemanwouldobey:Theywontrefuse.
Theyrenotgoingtorefuse,believeme.Helateramendedhisremark,butitspeaksvolumesabouthisapproachto
power.DickCheneygaveillegalorderstotortureprisonersandcoercedWhiteHouselawyerstocookupabsurdlegal
defenses.TrumpwouldmakeCheneysembraceofthedarksideanduntrammeledexecutivepowerlookunambitious.

Inhis1935novel,ItCantHappenHere,SinclairLewiswroteacounterfactualaboutwhatwouldhappeniffascismas
itwasthenspreadingacrossEuropeweretotriumphinAmerica.Itsnotagoodnovel,butitremainsaresonantone.The
imaginedAmericanfascistleaderasenatorcalledBuzzWindripisaProfessionalCommonManButhewasthe
CommonMantwenty-times-magnifiedbyhisoratory,sothatwhiletheotherCommonerscouldunderstandhisevery
purpose,whichwasexactlythesameastheirown,theysawhimtoweringamongthem,andtheyraisedhandstohimin
worship.

Hewasvulgar,almostilliterate,apublicliareasilydetected,andinhisideasalmostidiotic.IknowthePressonly
toowell,Windripopinesatonepoint.Almostalleditorshideawayinspider-dens,menwithoutthoughtofFamilyor
PublicInterestplottinghowtheycanputovertheirlies,andadvancetheirownpositionsandfilltheirgreedy
pocketbooks.

Heisobsessedwiththebalanceoftradeandpromisesinstanteconomicsuccess:Ishallnotbecontenttillthiscountry
canproduceeverysinglethingweneedWeshallhavesuchabalanceoftradeaswillgofartocarryoutmyoften-
criticizedyetcompletelysoundideaoffrom$3000to$5000peryearforeverysinglefamily.Howeverfantasticaland
emptyhispromises,henonethelessmesmerizesthepartyfaithfulatthenominatingconvention(heldinCleveland!):
SomethingintheintensitywithwhichWindriplookedathisaudience,lookedatallofthem,hisglanceslowlytakingthem
infromthehighest-perchedseattothenearest,convincedthemthathewastalkingtoeachindividual,directlyandsolely
thathewantedtotakeeachofthemintohisheartthathewastellingthemthetruths,theimperiousanddangerousfacts,
thathadbeenhiddenfromthem.

Andalltheeliteswhostoodinhisway?Crippledbytheirownfailures,demoralizedbytheircrumblingstature,theyfirst
mockandthencave.Asonelonejournalistlamentsbeforetheelection(hefindshimselfinaconcentrationcamp
afterward):IvegottokeeprememberingthatWindripisonlythelightestcorkonthewhirlpool.Hedidntplotallthis
thing.WithallthejustifieddiscontentthereisagainstthesmartpoliticiansandthePlushHorsesofPlutocracyoh,ifit
hadntbeenoneWindrip,itdbeenanotherWehaditcoming,weRespectables.

And,81yearslater,manyofusdid.AnAmericanelitethathaspresidedovermassiveandincreasingpublicdebt,that
failedtoprevent9/11,thatchoseadisastrouswarintheMiddleEast,thatallowedfinancialmarketstonearlydestroythe
globaleconomy,andthatisnowsobitterlydividedtheCongressiseffectivelymootinaconstitutionaldemocracy:We
Respectablesdeserveacomeuppance.ThevitalandvalidlessonoftheTrumpphenomenonisthatiftheelitescannot
governbycompromise,someoneoutsidewilleventuallytrytogovernbypopularpassionandbruteforce.

Butelitesstillmatterinademocracy.Theymatternotbecausetheyaredemocracysenemybutbecausetheyprovidethe
criticalingredienttosavedemocracyfromitself.ThepoliticalEstablishmentmaybebatteredanddemoralized,deferential
tothealgorithmsofthewebandtothemonosyllablesofagifteddemagogue,butthisisnotthetimetogiveupon
Americasnear-uniqueandstabilizingblendofdemocracyandeliteresponsibility.Thecountryhasenduredfarharsher
timesthanthepresentwithoutsuccumbingtorankdemagogueryitavoidedthefascismthatdestroyedEuropeithas
channeledextraordinaryoutpouringsofdemocraticenergyintoconstitutionalorder.Itseemsshockingtoarguethatwe
needelitesinthisdemocraticageespeciallywithvastinequalitiesofwealthandelitefailuresallaroundus.Butweneed
thempreciselytoprotectthispreciousdemocracyfromitsowndestabilizingexcesses.

AndsothoseDemocratswhoaregleefullypredictingaClintonlandslideinNovemberneedtobothchecktheir
complacencyandunderstandthattheTrumpquestionreallyisntacauseforpartisanSchadenfreudeanymore.Itsmuch
moredangerousthanthat.Thosestillbackingthedemagogueoftheleft,BernieSanders,mightwanttoreflectthattheir
critiqueofClintonsexperienceandexpertiseandtheirfacileconflationofthatwithcorruptionisonlyplayinginto
Trumpshands.ThatitwillfalltoClintontotemperherpartysambitionswillbeuncomfortabletowatch,sinceher
willingnesstocompromiseandequivocateispreciselywhatmanyAmericansfindsodistrustful.Andyetshemaysoonbe
allwehavelefttocounterthethreat.Sheneedstograspthelethalityofherfoe,moderatethekindofidentitypoliticsthat
unwittinglyempowershim,makeanunapologeticcasethatexperienceandmoderationarenotvices,addressmuchmore
directlytheanxietiesofthewhiteworkingclassandDemocratsmustlisten.

Moretothepoint,thoseRepublicansdesperatelytryingtousethelong-standingrulesoftheirownnominatingprocessto
thwartthismonsterdeserveourpassionatesupport,notourdisdain.Thisisnotthemomenttoremindthemthatthey
partlybroughtthisonthemselves.Thisisamomenttooffersolidarity,especiallyastheoddsareincreasinglystacked
againstthem.TedCruzandJohnKasichfacetheirdecisivebattleinIndianaonMay3.Buttheyneedtofighton,withany
tacticathand,allthewaytothebitterend.TheRepublicandelegateswhoaretryingtoprotecttheirpartyfromthewhims
ofanoutsiderdemagogueare,atthismoment,doingwhattheyoughttobedoingtopreventcivilandracialunrest,an
internationalconflict,andaconstitutionalcrisis.TheseGOPeliteshaveeveryrighttodeploywhateverrulesorprocedural
roadblockstheycanmuster,andtheyshouldrefusetobeintimidated.

AndiftheyfailinIndianaorCleveland,astheylikelywill,theyneed,quitesimply,todisowntheirpartyscandidate.They
shouldresistanytemptationtoloyallybackthenomineeortositthiselectionout.TheymusttakethefighttoTrumpat
everyopportunity,unitewithDemocratsandIndependentsagainsthim,andbepreparedtosacrificeoneelectioninorder
tosavetheirpartyandtheircountry.

ForTrumpisnotjustawackypoliticianofthefarright,orarivetingtelevisionspectacle,oraTwitterphenomandbizarre
working-classhero.HeisnotjustanothercandidatetobeparsedandanalyzedbyTVpunditsinthesamebreathasall
theothers.Intermsofourliberaldemocracyandconstitutionalorder,Trumpisanextinction-levelevent.Itslongpast
timewestartedtreatinghimassuch.

*ThisarticleappearsintheMay2,2016issueofNewYorkMagazine.

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/06/201609:36:48AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMAHARBINGEROFANEWUS
Subject: APPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDONJOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WE
WENTTHRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)


From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,May06,20168:14AM
Subject:Fwd:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMAHARBINGEROFANEW
USAPPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDONJOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WEWENT
THRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,May6,2016at10:57AM
Subject:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMA
HARBINGEROFANEWUSAPPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDON
JOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WEWENTTHRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

[THENEW.......ISTRUMPSAYINGWHATOB-ADHASALREADYBEENPRACTICING?ISHIL
(WITH'HONEYMOONINGinPARADISE'BERNIEINTOW)VERYFARBEHIND?]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,May6,2016at9:39AM
Subject:InDonaldTrumpsRise,AlliesSeeNewAmericanApproach-NYTimes.com
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/donald-trump-foreign-policy.html?_r=0&referer=

InDonaldTrumpsRise,AlliesSee
NewAmericanApproach

ByDAVIDE.SANGERandJIMYARDLEY

MAY5,2016

WASHINGTONAlarmedbyDonaldJ.TrumpsgripontheRepublicanpresidentialnomination,worldleadersarewrestling
withthepossibilitythat,evenifhelosesthegeneralelection,hisascentreflectsastrainofAmericanpublicopinionthatcould
profoundlyreshapethewaytheUnitedStatesaddressessecurityalliancesandtrade.

FromBeijing,TokyoandSeoultotheheadquartersofNATOinBrusselsandthevulnerableBalticnationsalongRussiaswestern
border,officialsandanalystssaidininterviewsthattheysawthesuccessofMr.TrumpsAmericafirstplatformasaharbingerof
pressureforalliestopayupormaketradeconcessionsinreturnformilitaryprotection.

Inmanycapitals,Mr.Trumpsformalandoff-the-cuffforeignpolicyproposalshisthreattopulloutofNATOhismusings
aboutremovingtheUnitedStatesnuclearumbrellaoverJapanandSouthKoreahispledgetoslaphugetradetariffsonChina
areregardedwithamixofalarmandconfusion.AskedonThursdayifBeijingwasconcernedabouttheprospectofaTrump
presidency,theChineseForeignMinistryspokesman,HongLei,replied,WehopetheU.S.peoplefromallwalksoflifewould
viewbilateralrelationsfromareasonableandobjectiveperspective.

StefanoStefanini,aformerrepresentativeofItalytoNATOandformerdiplomaticadvisertotheItalianpresident,putitthisway:
ThereisnoDonaldTrumpcontingencyplan.

ThemistakethatEuropemightmakeistothinktheTrumpphenomenonmightjustfadeaway,Mr.Stefaninisaid.Thesentiments
thatDonaldTrumpisexpressingwillcertainlyinfluencethenextadministrationorthenextCongress.

OfficialsdonotseeMr.TrumpsriseasmerelyanAmericanversionoftheanti-immigrationandisolationistpartiesthathave
pickedupsupportacrossEurope.TheyarefindingsignsoftangiblepoliticalchangeinstatementsbyDemocraticleaders,aswell.

Already,Mr.TrumpsassertivepositionsaboutAmericaninterestshaveledsomeofficialstolookagainatPresidentObamas
recentcritiqueofEuropeanandPersianGulfalliesasfreeriders.Theyhavealsohelpedshedlightabroadonthedomestic
politicalforcesatplayaroundHillaryClintonsdecisiontorenouncehersupportforanewAsiantradedeal.

Some,too,arerevisitingthewordsofRobertM.Gatesinhislastweeksasdefensesecretaryin2011.Mr.Gateswarnedthata
newgenerationofAmericanswithnomemoryoftheColdWarwouldeventuallyaskwhetherNATO,thecentralinstitutionof
Europeansecurity,wasanartifact,likethesinglesegmentoftheBerlinWallthatremainsstandingasareminderofthepast.In
Europelastmonth,Mr.Obamapressedalliestoliveuptocommitmentstospend2percentoftheirgrossdomesticproducton
defense,abenchmarkthatfewhavehit.

Someoftheclaimsmadeduringthecampaignhavebeenemptyorjustwrong,saidPeterWestmacott,aformerBritish
ambassadortotheUnitedStates,wherehewasregardedasoneofthesavviestanalystsofAmerican-Europeanrelations.There
isnobetterIrannucleardeal,andnotmanypeoplethinkitisagoodideaforSouthKoreaorJapantoacquirenuclearweapons.

ButothersshouldgiveusEuropeanspauseforthought,hesaid.NATOmembersneedtoreflectonwhetheritsright,or
sustainable,fortheU.S.topayover70percentofthebillforourcollectivesecurity,orhowtoensurewetakecareofthelosers
aswellasthewinnersinglobalfreetrade.

Clearly,manyEuropeanpolicymakerswerealreadyupsetwithMr.Obamasreluctancetointerveneontheirbehalfinconflicts
wheretheyhavenationalinterests,andwithhisdemandthatEuropeannationsputwhathecalled,inaninterviewwithTheAtlantic,
moreskininthegame.

EuropeanscitetheUnitedStatesreluctancetotaketheleadinoustingCol.Muammarel-QaddafifromLibya,anoperationthat
revealedmajorflawsinNATOoperations.AndtheyareunconvincedbyMr.Obamasinsistencethathemadetherightdecisionin
backingawayfromtheredlinehehaddrawnovertheuseofchemicalweaponsbyPresidentBasharal-AssadofSyria.

Overall,IwouldsaytherearetoomanysignsofAmericanretrenchmentandretreat,saidAndersFoghRasmussen,aformer
primeministerofDenmarkwhowasNATOsecretarygeneraluntil2014.Europeans,hesaid,wouldgenerallypreferanAmerican
presidentwhowilldemonstratedeterminedAmericanleadership,evenas,tomanyanalysts,Mr.Trumpsrisesuggestspressure
forthenationtoturninward.

Mr.RasmussensaidhesawMr.TrumpsdemandsonNATOasanaccelerationoftheObamaadministrationsefforttoencourage
moreburdensharing.Buttheycomewithanisolationisttwist,hesaid.TheAmericafirstterm,embracedbyMr.Trumpina
recentinterviewwithTheNewYorkTimes,goesbacktoamovementledbyCharlesA.Lindberghinthe1930stokeepAmerica
outofwarinEurope.

TheEuropeanreactiontotherevivalofthattermhasbeensosharpthatAmericanmilitaryleaders,whilereluctanttogetinvolved
inthecampaign,havetriedtotakeonMr.Trumpsarguments.

Gen.PhilipM.Breedlove,whojuststeppeddownasthesupremealliedcommanderforEurope,wroteinTheWashingtonPost
thisweekthatwhenheassumedhispositionin2013,hethoughtthatargumentsaboutNATOsutilitywerewithoutmerit,and
therewasnoneedtoengage.Now,hesaid,withoutnamingMr.Trump,hefeltcompelledtoexplaintomyfellowcountrymen
whytheUnitedStatesabsolutelyneedsNATOaNATOthatisstrong,resilientandunited.

FivemembersoftheJointChiefsofStaffmadeasimilarsetofargumentsattheCouncilonForeignRelationsinNewYorkon
Tuesday,alsoavoidinganymentionofMr.Trumpsname.

ButtomanywholiveonRussiasrawborder,especiallyintheBalticnationsinMoscowsshadow,thereisnothingmorepuzzling
thanMr.TrumpsreluctancetocriticizePresidentVladimirV.Putin.HehasoftenspokenadmiringlyofMr.Putin,sayinghe
respectshisstrengthandviewshimassomeonewithwhomhecannegotiate.ToEuropeanears,thatsoundsasifMr.Trumpmay
beplayingintoMr.Putinshands,openingariftwithinNATO.

RussiasenthusiasmaboutTrumpseemstobepredicatedontheassumptionthathemayactuallywithdrawforcesfromEurope,
saidMatthewRojansky,thedirectoroftheKennanInstitute,aWashingtonresearchgroupfocusedonRussia.

ThatisexactlythefearofothersinaregionwhereNATOistheonlybulwarkagainstRussiaandwheresomepeopledoubtthatan
Americanpresidentwouldreallycommitforcestoprotectthemintimesofconflict.

AfterRussiasinterventioninUkraine,alotofLatvianswokeupandsaid,ThankGodweareinNATO,saidLolitaCigane,a
memberoftheLatvianParliament.

InneighboringLithuania,aplaqueatTownHallinthecapital,Vilnius,commemoratesa2002visitbyanotherRepublican,
PresidentGeorgeW.Bush.AnyonewhowouldchooseLithuaniaasanenemyhasalsomadeanenemyoftheUnitedStatesof
America,Mr.Bushsaidthen.Mr.ObamamadeasimilarvowinEstoniaandincreasedNATOspresenceinEasternEuropein
responsetotheRussianthreat,andMr.Trumpspositionfeelslikebackpedalingtopeopleintheregion.

Mr.TrumpsargumentthatSeoulandTokyo,whichhosttensofthousandsofAmericantroops,needtopaymoreorseethe
troopsleavebewilderedofficialsinthosecountries.Japanpaysroughly$2billionayeartowardthetroopshousing,andmilitary
leadersoftensayitwouldbemorecostlyforAmericantaxpayerstobasethosesametroopsinGuamorinthemainlandUnited
States.Moreover,thosebasesarecriticalfordailyintelligencegatheringonChinaandNorthKorea.

Americanmilitaryofficialsanddiplomatsarguethattheseforwarddeployedbasesarecriticaltomaintainingfreedomof
navigationanddeterringNorthKorea.ButMr.TrumpsarguesthattheyareworthitonlyiftheydonotcosttheUnitedStatesa
fortune.

IthinktherealsubliminalmessageTrumpissayingisthis:TheU.S.canaffordtosurviveandprosperwithoutanyalliesifitwas
forcedtocutoffallties,buttheconverseisnttrue,saidChungMinLee,aprofessorofinternationalrelationsatYonseiUniversity
inSeoul.HeaddedthatMr.Trumpwasforcingalliestocomeupwithconvincingelevatorspeechesonthekeybenefitstheybring
totheU.S.,andthusfar,noneofthemhavedoneso.

InChina,afrequenttargetofMr.Trumpscriticism,heiswidelyviewedasapragmatistwhoislesshawkishandlessfocusedon
humanrightsthanMrs.Clintonis.

HisproposaltoimposehightaxesonChinesegoodsreceiveslittleattentionthere,andhistalkofChinasrapingtheUnited
Statesinunfairtradedealshasbeenmetwithshrugs,asiftosaythatchargeisnothingnew.Instead,theconversationfocuseson
Mr.TrumpsbusinesssuccessorhispronouncementsonpreventingforeignMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates,anattitude
thatjibeswiththeantipathyinmuchofChinatowardtheMuslimpopulationinthewesternprovinceofXinjiang.

ManyinChinabelieveapro-businessRepublicanpresidentwilltendtobepragmaticandChina-friendly,ifnotpro-China,said
WangDong,associateprofessorofinternationalstudiesatPekingUniversity.Therefore,manyinChinatendtoviewTrumps
remarksofimposingmorethan30percentoftariffsonChinaasrhetoricalcampaignlanguage.

Mr.TrumpsassertionthatAmericantroopsinSouthKoreaandJapanshouldbesentbacktotheUnitedStatesisinalignment
withofficial,thoughrarelystated,Chinesegoals.Buthissuggestion,laterreversedinpart,thatJapanandSouthKoreashouldbe
abletodeveloptheirownnucleararsenalsalarmedBeijing,especiallythenotionthatJapan,theoccupierofChinainWorldWarII,
wouldbecomeanuclearpower.

DavidE.SangerreportedfromWashingtonandSeoul,SouthKorea,andJimYardleyfromRome.JanePerlezandYufan
HuangcontributedreportingfromBeijing,andRichardMartyn-HemphillfromStockholm.

OLD[AMEMOFROMTHEPAST--GIVESCONTEXTTOJOSHCOHEN---HISTORIAN
EXTRAORDINAIRE]

[ED:AgoodCalifriendjustremindedyourstrulythatJoshCohen'slatestscreedinFPwassimplyatake-offoran
updateofanattackthathehadlaunchedbackinApril2015.[SEEAYTMEMOONTHESUBJECTBELOW
FROMTHEPERIOD]

Apparently,JC'smaximis:"If,atfirst,youdon'tsucceed,try...tryagain"!![HerbRcalledit"thetransformative
powerof'tellingasolidlieoftenenough'....."]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<ajmotyl@verizon.net>
Date:Wed,Apr29,2015at8:27AM
Subject:yourpiece
To:waz1@nyu.edu,waz2102@columbia.edu,wzarcusur@gmail.com

isverygood.Butit'llgetlostincyberspace,ifyoudon'tgetitpublishedsomewhere.Sinceit'sessentiallyarebuttaltoJCohen,whydon'tyou
sendit(sansthechatty,Ukr-relatedparts)toForeignPolicy?ThecontactpersonsareChristianCaryl(Christian.Caryl@foreignpolicy.com)
orMaxStrasser(Max.Strasser@foreignpolicy.com).

Best,Oles

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Wed,Apr29,2015at1:13AM
Subject:[BURNINGTHETRULYLATENITEOIL....ORBURNINGATBOTHENDSOFACANDLE]A'YoursTruly'AdvisoryMemoonthe
'OpenLettertoPresidentPoroshenko'
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

MYK......STARTHERE......PUTUPONFACEBOOK....with'Forwardedmessagetoshowtimesent']

DearFriends:

Lastweek,anitementitled"AnOpenLettertoPresidentPoroshenko",ostensiblyamemomeanttounderlinetherisksthatUkrainiangoverning
circlesweretakingwiththepotentialenactmentofasetof'de-communizationlaws',wasapparentlypostedonthewebsiteofthejournal'Krytyka'
andthenwentviralintheInternet.Judgingfromtherashofmailandthesetof'quickresponses'onthematterthatyourstrulyreceivedinthe
immediateaftermath,itwasnotastretchtoimaginethesaiditemstirringagreatdealofcontroversyandfrayingagoodnumberoflongterm
friendships.

Myinitialreactionwastotaketheissue'instride'or,essentially,toleaveitalone.Forone,accusationsof'extremism'assertedagainstthepresent
UAgovernment,thoughdemocraticallyelectedandavidlycentristinitspolitics(videMinskI&II),werebecominglegend(RThadfourorfivenew
onesaday)thereactionwas:"Whatelsewasnew?"Two,IthoughtthatpreparingforapresentationattheUNconcerningUARada'sexcellent
movetorecognizetheCrimeanTatarsasthe'trueindigenouspopulationofCrimea'wasmoreimportant.Finally,havingbeenaclose
observer/witnessofthelastyearsoftheColdWar,thewholeaffairseemed,atbest,an'awfuldistraction'---givenRU'songoinghybridwaragainst
Ukraineand,atworse,a'diversiya',asmygoodfriendandlegendaryexpertonSoviet'activemeasures',HerbRomerstein,waswonttosay.

Thisweekend,thatinitialreactionwassorelytested,whenoneofthesigners,Dr.John-PaulHimka(ofHolodomor-doubtingfame),decidedtoweb-
postaseconditem,a'follow-up'tothe'OpenLetter',assertingthattheUAgovernmentanditsvarious'informational'organswereopenlyengaged
inabetting,undertheguiseofde-communization',therehabilitationof'pastfascistforcesinUkraine'.

TheepisodewasfollowedinquicksuccessiononMondaybyJoshCohen(anold'Moscow'StateDept.handandlatelyapurveyorofthe
'Sanctionsdon'tworkagainstPutin'sentiment)launchingintoavelvetglovedtiradeofhisownontheselfsameissuethatHimkahadraised.Better
yet,Cohenresolvedtotakemattersacrucialstepfurther,suggesting(asRUforceswerebuffingupontheUAborderonceagain)thatthose
'darnedRUsocialmediatrolls'whowerecallingthepresentKyivgovernment'Nazis'mightjusthaveapointafterall.

Thementionedtandemprovokedan'OHBOY'momentofthehighestdegreeinaword,Iwas'furious'.Istillhadtheproblemofhavingtoprepare
forotherthingsinthenextdayortwo,soIknewthatwritingawellpreparedtreatiseonthesubjectwithsixcitationsperparagraphwasoutofthe
question.Butanicememo(withapossibleSwift-ianbitof'tongueandcheek'thrownin)tothoseonthe'bccinfochain'whohadthetimeorwere
braveenoughtoproperlychallengethe'writers/signersoftheOpenLetter'(andthe'increasinglyaccusatory'follow-uppieces)mightjustbethe
ticket.

Incomposingsuchanadvisorymemo,Idecidedthatperhapsthebestplacetostartwouldbetopointoutthesomeofthepitfallstoavoid(when
engagingthe'letter-signers'indiscussion).Theveryfirstsuchpitfallwouldbethetemptationtolashoutatanyoneinthegroupwithpersonal
accusations(likethepotshotItookatJ-PHimkainthepreviousparagraph).Lordknowsthatsuchatemptationwouldnotbecompletelywithout
merit.Acoupleofindividualsonthe'signerslist'havereputationsforengaginginscholarshipnotveryfarremovedfromthatofDougTottle,the
'famed'pro-SovietpamphleteerduringthelateColdWarperiodandauthoroftheeverilluminating"Fraud,FamineandFascism:TheUkrainian
GenocideMythfromHitlertoHarvard"(aworkwhichwasincidentallyfullofcitations,allunfortunatelytakendirectlyfrompamphletswrittenby
operativesinLubyanka).AndthereappeartobeacoupleofsignerswhoopenlysympathizedwiththeSovietUnionbackinheydaysoftheCold
War.Nevertheless,thereremainsalargehostofgood,honestscholarswhosignedbecausetheygenuinelyfeltthatthe'decommunizationprocess',
asenvisionedbytheratified(thoughasyetunsigned)legislation,mighthavelongtermdeleteriouseffectsonfreedomofexpressionandbelief.
Hence,anyargument,tobetakenseriously,wouldhavetoaddresstheirfears.Ineffect,theresponsewouldhavetodealwiththesubstanceofthe
issuesraisedintheletter(ratherthanwiththecredentials/characterofthesigners).

Inaddressingthesubstanceofletter,anothermajortemptation,andthereforepitfall,wouldbetoimitatethestructure/order/logicoftheletteritself.
Forreasonsknownonlytothefinaleditorsofthemissive,thefirstparagraphleadswithanattackontheUAgovernment'sallegedattemptto
rehabilitateallegedcrypto-fascistoroutrightfascistoutfitsspawnedduringtheWWII-ie-theUAnationalistformationsknownasOUN(the
OrganizationofUkrainianNationalists)andUPA(theUkrainianInsurgentArmy).Onlyinthesecondparagraphdoestheletterfinallyspeaktothe
ostensibleissueonhand-ie-'decommunizationproper'anditssupposedperilstoafreesociety.Again,thetemptation(byresponders)tofollow
suitemightproveoverwhelmingthepatrioticurgetodefendtheEuro-MaidanborngovernmentortheoldColdWarrior'surgetoportraytheattack
onOUN-UPAaspartandparcelofaseventyyearSovietlaunchedcampaigntobesmirchamuchfeared'UAnationalliberationmovement'might
trumpallotherconsiderations.Tosuccumbtotheurgewouldbeafundamentalmistake.Whateverelseanyonemightsay,theprimarytaskofthe
'decommunizationlaws'istoridtheUAsociety/stateofthe'symbols/iconsofcommunistrule'.Thisissueshouldremainthecentralfocus.

Insayingthatthecentralfocusofthedebateshouldbe"theproprietyofremovingthesymbols/iconsofcommunistruleinUkraine",afinal
potentialpitfallsurfaces.Thepitfallhastodowithopeningupanideologicaldebate,orbetteryet,anideologicaldivide,betweentheleftandthe
right.Theremightbeatemptationonthepartofagoodnumberofresponderstogetintoa'globaldiscussion'withthesignersaboutthegeneral
merits/demeritsofcommunism.Theresulting'intellectualfoodfight'wouldpitthosewhoconsidercommunismasatotalitarianideainwhosename
massmurderhasbeenrepeatedlycommittedvs.thosewhowouldbelievethat'Communism'wassimply'utopiagonewrong'(theirownyouthful
idealism'dissipated'),unliketheunadulteratedevilof'Nazism'.Thatframeworkisonetobeavoidedwhentryingtounderstandcommunistrulein
Ukraine.

InUkraine,tounderstand'theeraofcommunistrule',onemustusetheproperwordfortheparticularmanifestationofcommunisminthecountry
thetermis"Bolshevism".

Oncethetwosidesmightagreetodiscuss'BolshevikruleinUkraine'andthepropriety[orimpropriety]ofremovingbothitsiconsanditsmemory
fromtheUkrainelandscapeandpsyche,muchcouldbeenaccomplished.Andthathasalottodowithacceptinganothertermintheequationas
well:"occupation".

Why?Well,letusrememberthatBolshevism,amoreextremeversionofRussianMarxism(orRU'stakeonCommunism),wasnotindigenousto
Ukraine.Forbetterorworse,Ukrainehaditsowndeepandrichtraditionofstrivingforsocialjustice-ie-Socialism(ithappenswhenyougetde-
serfedaslateas1861)!!Thespectrumrangedfromtheanarchist(today,libertarian)socialismofMakhnothruthepeasantlovingSocial
RevolutionaryanticsofM.Hrushevskytothemoderate(SocialDemocratic)MarxismofPetlura-VinnychenkoandontonativeUkrainian
CommunismembodiedintheUKP/Borobists.Infact,thelastoftheUkrainiangovernmentsduringUkraine'sshort-livedindependenceinthepost
WWIperiod[1918-1921]wasrunbyaallianceofthesefeudingleftwingUkrainianparties.BolshevismhadnorealrootsinUkraine,evenasittried
tosetupa"pre-DNR"DNRsituationinKharkivin1919-21.OnlywhentheRedArmy(aidedbyaWhiteRUarmythatfoughtit,buttheUkrainians
more)arrivedfromRussia,didtheweakened(bybothwhiteandredRUforces)Ukrainianindependententityfinallyfailandgivewayto'Bolshevik
RuleinUA'!Inaword,asstatedbefore,'occupation'occurred!

Intheearlytwentiesbecauseofthepainsofearlygrowth,Bolshevikruleor'occupation'ofUkrainedifferedlittlefrom'other'colonialoccupations'
[Note:yes,evensocialistscouldengagein'dreamsofimperium',givenitsnon-monetaryrewards].Infact,becauseofthegrowingpains,the
[Kremlinbased]BolsheviksmadethemistakeoflettingthoseUkrainianswhoprovedloyaltotheirrulehaveabitoflee-way[rememberthatNEP
wasnotsimplyabouteconomics].ThatmistakewasnotedbyStalinwhenhecametopower.Heck,thoseUA'loyalists',UkrainianBolshevikslike
KhyvlovyandSkrypnyk,seemedtohaveamindoftheirown(justlikealltheircompatriots).Atthatpoint,theoccupationturnedintosomething
differentinthelatetwenties,itturned'genocidal'.

Again,whywouldsomeonehavetherighttomakethatassertion?BecausetheFatheroftheterm'genocide',RafaelLemkin,madetheverypointin
1953.HesuccinctlyelaboratedontheBolshevikfourstepplanforUkraineandUkrainians:[1]firsttakeouthead---theintelligentsia,NEP-men,rich
peasants[2]thentakeouttheheart---theclergy[3]thenaimforthebody..themiddleandpoorpeasants[4]finally----takeoutthenativeloyalists
andreplacethemwithyourownfolks.

Intheearly1930's,'[RUCommunist]BolshevikruleinUkraine'meant"genocide"(nation-killing).Admittedly,thatchangedabitwhenStalinandhis
politicaldescendantscametotwofurtherconclusions.OnewasthatthereweretoomanyofthosedarnedUkrainianstokilltheotherwasthatthe
Ukrainians,'nowhousebroken',mightserveasusefulfodderagainsttheenemiesoftheCCCP.Andsoitwentforatime.InWWII,Ukrainianswere
usedtograbpartsofFinlandin1940,defendStalingradagainsttheNazis(thatacesniperwasaUke)in1942-3,liberateAuschwitzinJan1945and
makearunonBerlininApril-May1945.Duringtheearly(nearhot)ColdWar,theUkrainiansprovedusefulNCOsinthegloriousSovietArmy
facingthosedamnedYankeeimperialistsinFuldaGap.Indeed,asareward,anewUAloyalist,PetroShelestwasgivenasolidseatatthePolitburo
tableintheKremlin.

Yet,forallhisloyalty,whentheoldUABolshevik(ararebreed)decidedtotalkabouthis"SovietUkraine"in1970-2,hebroughtdownhellon
himselfandhiscountrymen.BolshevikruleinUkraineduringthesecondhalfofBrezhnev's'eraofstagnation'turnedto'ethnocide'(theUA
dissidentStephanKhmaracoinedtheterm)replacingShelestwithacompletetoadynamedScherbytsky,theKremlinengagedin'immersed
RussificationofUkraine'throughoutthelate1970sand1980s.By1989-90,whenIvisitedLviv(thecityofmyancestors)forthefirsttime,eventhat
bastion'ofallthingsUkrainian'hadverydistinctnon-Ukrainianaspectstoit.

Ineffect,Bolshevik[RedRussian,tobeblunt]ruleinUkraineinvolvedphysical(genocidal)andspiritual(ethnocidal)'nationbreaking'(ofthe
worsesort).Andtheeffectsofthatwerenoteasytostop(orreverse).EvenafterUkrainereneweditsindependencein1991,thedamagedoneto
theUkrainianpsychewasevidentateveryturn.Throughoutthe1990s,manyUkrainianslivedasiftheywerestillintheSovietUniontheysaidas
much.Betteryet,thegreatawakeningin2004-5,theOrangeRevolution,didrelativelylittletochangetheunderlyingperception.ZbigBrzezinski,
alwayswonderfullyblunt,atoneofourUAQuestRoundtablesafterYushchenkoassumedthepresidency(anddeclaredforthe'Euro-Atlantic'
path),tooktheVAYtotaskforwanting"intoEUandNATO"whiletoleratingabigLeninstatuteatamajorUAairbaseinNorthUkraine(near
Desna).

ForUkrainewatchers,itwasonlywiththecomingoftheEuro-Maidan(andeventuallywiththenewgovernmentitspawnedinearly2014),that'the
senseof'occupation'begantotrulydisperse.Andironically,whetherthesigners/writersoftheOpenLetterwanttoadmititornot,theprocesswas
bestsymbolizedbythetakeoveroftheofficesofpower(controlledbytheproRURegionsfolk),theclosingdownofthevariousCommunistparty
headquarters,the'demont'ofLeninstatueslargeorsmallthroughoutCentral/EastUkraineandtheburningofStalinphotosinplaceslike
Zaporizhe!TheBolshevik'occupation'wasfinallyfullyendinginUkraine.TheRedparthaddisappearedin1991theRUpartwasdisappearing
rightbeforeeveryone'sMaidanenlightenedeyes!!

Finally,guesswhobestsensedwhattheMaidanandspinoffactivityactuallymeantandcontinuestomean?ThecastofcharactersfromKremlin
centralcastingthatwehavecometoloveandknowinthelastyear:Ol'Strelkov-GirkinofDNRfameandPutin'smainideologueAlexanderDugin.
Hence,despitebeingrightofAttilatheHun(hatetoinsultAttilathatway)intheirnationalchauvinism,racism,anti-semitismandhomophobia,the
twonamedhavecontinuedtolamenttheremovalofsuchlefticonographyasthestatutesofLeninandthevarious'hammer&sickle'emblems
embeddedineverymajordoorofeveryofficialbuildinginUkraine.Theyareinrealitylamentingthe'endoftheoccupation'.

Armedwiththe'occupation'paradigm,aresponderwouldbereadytobringsometoughquestionstotheattentionthe'writers/signersoftheOpen
Letter'(youknewwewouldcomebacktothat).

Perhapstheveryfirstsetofquestionsonemightaskthe'letter-signers'wouldbethefollowing:Indefendingtherightofindividualstobelievethat
CommunistruleinUkrainehada'goodside',whichaspectofthatruleshouldusedasanexample?ThePeriodofGenocide?Ortheperiodof
Ethnocide?OrthetimeinbetweenwhenUkrainianswereusedtoinvadeFinland?

Inrapidsuccession,onemightfollowupbyasking:Don'tyoufinditjustalittledisturbingthatyouarelamentingtheprohibitionoftheverysame
symbolsasthelikesofGirkinandDugin?Anddon'tyoufindittheleastbituncomfortabletobeerstwhilebedfellowswithfolkswhowouldhave
no'truck'withyouoryourbeliefs?

Asatopper,onemightleaveourdear'OpenLetter-men'withonefurtherquestiontocontemplate:TheremayhavebeenhonestBolsheviksin
Ukrainebetween1917and1991,butdidyouevernoticethattheyusuallyendedupinagraveorinexile(videKhvylovy,Skrypnyk,Shelest)right
alongsidethose'damnedfascist'Banderites'?

Oncetherespondershadcompletedtheirprimarytask,itistruethatthebraveronesmightpushtheenvelopeandexploretwofurtherquestions
(onesIsuggestedwerenotatheheartofthe'decommunization'issueandcouldbeleftforalaterdebate).ThefirstwouldbeaboutthoseWWII
formationsthatmostpostMaidanUkrainians,ofwhateverideologicalpersuasions(mostlycentrist),ethnicbackgroundorreligiouspersuasion
havecometoseeas'thevanguardofthenationalliberationstruggle'butwhichtheCCCPhadforseventyyearslabelled'fascist'---withbatchesof
documentssentWestevenduringtheColdWartoprovethepoint.

HavinghadthepleasureofknowingtwoindividualswhohavehadaccesstooldSovietarchives,thealreadymentionedHerbRomersteinandDr.
YuriShapovaloftheUkrainianAcademyofSciences,IhaveheardeachindicatethattheRussianDezinformapparathadsobadlymangledthe
reputationoftheoutfitslikeOUNandUPAthat'theirmotherswouldnotrecognizethem'.GiventhatthepostMaidanperiodhadfinallygiven
historiansaccesstomostoftheSovietfilesonthetwooutfits,wouldn'titmakesensetoactuallytorunacoupleofseriousscholarlyconferences
beforemakingafinalhistoricaljudgementontheentitiesinquestion?

Thesecondwouldbeatouchierquestionandwouldtrulyrequirecourage.ItwouldcanvasthemajorityoffinescholarswhosignedontheOpen
letterwhethertheythoughtHolodomor-doubtingandoverlycloserelationswiththeoldCCCP(substituteHolocaustandNaziGermanyfor
comparison)disqualifiedsomeonefrombeingtakenseriouslyasascholar.

ThoughtsOutofaSeason!

WAZ

PS:Iknowitslateatnight....butIamstilltryingtowrapmyheadaroundthefactthatsomany85pound'BanderaBewegung'typescomingoutof
thevariousGermanKZaspoliticalprisonersin1945havemorphedintoNaziicons70yearslater!!Idon'tgetit!!Itmustsimplybethelackof
sleep!!

2016PS[AnImportantPersonalAdd-on]:Oneofthose85pounderswasmybelovedfather-in-law,VolodymyrKostyk---comingout
ofMauthausenII(thedeathcampintheM-Gcomplex)

From: PaulGoble<paul.goble@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/05/201609:51:25AM
To: PaulGoble<Paul.Goble@gmail.com>
BCc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FourWindowsonEurasiaforMay5,2016

1.PutinsSupportforTrumpSeenBackfiringonKremlinLeaderwindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/05/putins-support-for-
trump-seen.html

2.RussiaUsingVictoryDaytoProjectSoftPowerinEasternEurope,KirillovaSays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/05/russia-using-victory-day-to-project.html

3.RadicalRussianNationalismFadingforThreeMainReasons,St.PetersburgSociologistSays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/05/radical-russian-nationalism-faded-for.html

4.RegionalIdentitiesIntensifyRelativetoEthnicOnesCreatingNewProblemsforMoscow,ScholarSays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/05/regional-identities-intensify-relative.html

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/06/201609:36:48AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMAHARBINGEROFANEWUS
Subject: APPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDONJOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WE
WENTTHRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)


From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,May06,20168:14AM
Subject:Fwd:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMAHARBINGEROFANEW
USAPPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDONJOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WEWENT
THRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,May6,2016at10:57AM
Subject:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMA
HARBINGEROFANEWUSAPPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDON
JOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WEWENTTHRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

[THENEW.......ISTRUMPSAYINGWHATOB-ADHASALREADYBEENPRACTICING?ISHIL
(WITH'HONEYMOONINGinPARADISE'BERNIEINTOW)VERYFARBEHIND?]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,May6,2016at9:39AM
Subject:InDonaldTrumpsRise,AlliesSeeNewAmericanApproach-NYTimes.com
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/donald-trump-foreign-policy.html?_r=0&referer=

InDonaldTrumpsRise,AlliesSee
NewAmericanApproach

ByDAVIDE.SANGERandJIMYARDLEY

MAY5,2016

WASHINGTONAlarmedbyDonaldJ.TrumpsgripontheRepublicanpresidentialnomination,worldleadersarewrestling
withthepossibilitythat,evenifhelosesthegeneralelection,hisascentreflectsastrainofAmericanpublicopinionthatcould
profoundlyreshapethewaytheUnitedStatesaddressessecurityalliancesandtrade.

FromBeijing,TokyoandSeoultotheheadquartersofNATOinBrusselsandthevulnerableBalticnationsalongRussiaswestern
border,officialsandanalystssaidininterviewsthattheysawthesuccessofMr.TrumpsAmericafirstplatformasaharbingerof
pressureforalliestopayupormaketradeconcessionsinreturnformilitaryprotection.

Inmanycapitals,Mr.Trumpsformalandoff-the-cuffforeignpolicyproposalshisthreattopulloutofNATOhismusings
aboutremovingtheUnitedStatesnuclearumbrellaoverJapanandSouthKoreahispledgetoslaphugetradetariffsonChina
areregardedwithamixofalarmandconfusion.AskedonThursdayifBeijingwasconcernedabouttheprospectofaTrump
presidency,theChineseForeignMinistryspokesman,HongLei,replied,WehopetheU.S.peoplefromallwalksoflifewould
viewbilateralrelationsfromareasonableandobjectiveperspective.

StefanoStefanini,aformerrepresentativeofItalytoNATOandformerdiplomaticadvisertotheItalianpresident,putitthisway:
ThereisnoDonaldTrumpcontingencyplan.

ThemistakethatEuropemightmakeistothinktheTrumpphenomenonmightjustfadeaway,Mr.Stefaninisaid.Thesentiments
thatDonaldTrumpisexpressingwillcertainlyinfluencethenextadministrationorthenextCongress.

OfficialsdonotseeMr.TrumpsriseasmerelyanAmericanversionoftheanti-immigrationandisolationistpartiesthathave
pickedupsupportacrossEurope.TheyarefindingsignsoftangiblepoliticalchangeinstatementsbyDemocraticleaders,aswell.

Already,Mr.TrumpsassertivepositionsaboutAmericaninterestshaveledsomeofficialstolookagainatPresidentObamas
recentcritiqueofEuropeanandPersianGulfalliesasfreeriders.Theyhavealsohelpedshedlightabroadonthedomestic
politicalforcesatplayaroundHillaryClintonsdecisiontorenouncehersupportforanewAsiantradedeal.

Some,too,arerevisitingthewordsofRobertM.Gatesinhislastweeksasdefensesecretaryin2011.Mr.Gateswarnedthata
newgenerationofAmericanswithnomemoryoftheColdWarwouldeventuallyaskwhetherNATO,thecentralinstitutionof
Europeansecurity,wasanartifact,likethesinglesegmentoftheBerlinWallthatremainsstandingasareminderofthepast.In
Europelastmonth,Mr.Obamapressedalliestoliveuptocommitmentstospend2percentoftheirgrossdomesticproducton
defense,abenchmarkthatfewhavehit.

Someoftheclaimsmadeduringthecampaignhavebeenemptyorjustwrong,saidPeterWestmacott,aformerBritish
ambassadortotheUnitedStates,wherehewasregardedasoneofthesavviestanalystsofAmerican-Europeanrelations.There
isnobetterIrannucleardeal,andnotmanypeoplethinkitisagoodideaforSouthKoreaorJapantoacquirenuclearweapons.

ButothersshouldgiveusEuropeanspauseforthought,hesaid.NATOmembersneedtoreflectonwhetheritsright,or
sustainable,fortheU.S.topayover70percentofthebillforourcollectivesecurity,orhowtoensurewetakecareofthelosers
aswellasthewinnersinglobalfreetrade.

Clearly,manyEuropeanpolicymakerswerealreadyupsetwithMr.Obamasreluctancetointerveneontheirbehalfinconflicts
wheretheyhavenationalinterests,andwithhisdemandthatEuropeannationsputwhathecalled,inaninterviewwithTheAtlantic,
moreskininthegame.

EuropeanscitetheUnitedStatesreluctancetotaketheleadinoustingCol.Muammarel-QaddafifromLibya,anoperationthat
revealedmajorflawsinNATOoperations.AndtheyareunconvincedbyMr.Obamasinsistencethathemadetherightdecisionin
backingawayfromtheredlinehehaddrawnovertheuseofchemicalweaponsbyPresidentBasharal-AssadofSyria.

Overall,IwouldsaytherearetoomanysignsofAmericanretrenchmentandretreat,saidAndersFoghRasmussen,aformer
primeministerofDenmarkwhowasNATOsecretarygeneraluntil2014.Europeans,hesaid,wouldgenerallypreferanAmerican
presidentwhowilldemonstratedeterminedAmericanleadership,evenas,tomanyanalysts,Mr.Trumpsrisesuggestspressure
forthenationtoturninward.

Mr.RasmussensaidhesawMr.TrumpsdemandsonNATOasanaccelerationoftheObamaadministrationsefforttoencourage
moreburdensharing.Buttheycomewithanisolationisttwist,hesaid.TheAmericafirstterm,embracedbyMr.Trumpina
recentinterviewwithTheNewYorkTimes,goesbacktoamovementledbyCharlesA.Lindberghinthe1930stokeepAmerica
outofwarinEurope.

TheEuropeanreactiontotherevivalofthattermhasbeensosharpthatAmericanmilitaryleaders,whilereluctanttogetinvolved
inthecampaign,havetriedtotakeonMr.Trumpsarguments.

Gen.PhilipM.Breedlove,whojuststeppeddownasthesupremealliedcommanderforEurope,wroteinTheWashingtonPost
thisweekthatwhenheassumedhispositionin2013,hethoughtthatargumentsaboutNATOsutilitywerewithoutmerit,and
therewasnoneedtoengage.Now,hesaid,withoutnamingMr.Trump,hefeltcompelledtoexplaintomyfellowcountrymen
whytheUnitedStatesabsolutelyneedsNATOaNATOthatisstrong,resilientandunited.

FivemembersoftheJointChiefsofStaffmadeasimilarsetofargumentsattheCouncilonForeignRelationsinNewYorkon
Tuesday,alsoavoidinganymentionofMr.Trumpsname.

ButtomanywholiveonRussiasrawborder,especiallyintheBalticnationsinMoscowsshadow,thereisnothingmorepuzzling
thanMr.TrumpsreluctancetocriticizePresidentVladimirV.Putin.HehasoftenspokenadmiringlyofMr.Putin,sayinghe
respectshisstrengthandviewshimassomeonewithwhomhecannegotiate.ToEuropeanears,thatsoundsasifMr.Trumpmay
beplayingintoMr.Putinshands,openingariftwithinNATO.

RussiasenthusiasmaboutTrumpseemstobepredicatedontheassumptionthathemayactuallywithdrawforcesfromEurope,
saidMatthewRojansky,thedirectoroftheKennanInstitute,aWashingtonresearchgroupfocusedonRussia.

ThatisexactlythefearofothersinaregionwhereNATOistheonlybulwarkagainstRussiaandwheresomepeopledoubtthatan
Americanpresidentwouldreallycommitforcestoprotectthemintimesofconflict.

AfterRussiasinterventioninUkraine,alotofLatvianswokeupandsaid,ThankGodweareinNATO,saidLolitaCigane,a
memberoftheLatvianParliament.

InneighboringLithuania,aplaqueatTownHallinthecapital,Vilnius,commemoratesa2002visitbyanotherRepublican,
PresidentGeorgeW.Bush.AnyonewhowouldchooseLithuaniaasanenemyhasalsomadeanenemyoftheUnitedStatesof
America,Mr.Bushsaidthen.Mr.ObamamadeasimilarvowinEstoniaandincreasedNATOspresenceinEasternEuropein
responsetotheRussianthreat,andMr.Trumpspositionfeelslikebackpedalingtopeopleintheregion.

Mr.TrumpsargumentthatSeoulandTokyo,whichhosttensofthousandsofAmericantroops,needtopaymoreorseethe
troopsleavebewilderedofficialsinthosecountries.Japanpaysroughly$2billionayeartowardthetroopshousing,andmilitary
leadersoftensayitwouldbemorecostlyforAmericantaxpayerstobasethosesametroopsinGuamorinthemainlandUnited
States.Moreover,thosebasesarecriticalfordailyintelligencegatheringonChinaandNorthKorea.

Americanmilitaryofficialsanddiplomatsarguethattheseforwarddeployedbasesarecriticaltomaintainingfreedomof
navigationanddeterringNorthKorea.ButMr.TrumpsarguesthattheyareworthitonlyiftheydonotcosttheUnitedStatesa
fortune.

IthinktherealsubliminalmessageTrumpissayingisthis:TheU.S.canaffordtosurviveandprosperwithoutanyalliesifitwas
forcedtocutoffallties,buttheconverseisnttrue,saidChungMinLee,aprofessorofinternationalrelationsatYonseiUniversity
inSeoul.HeaddedthatMr.Trumpwasforcingalliestocomeupwithconvincingelevatorspeechesonthekeybenefitstheybring
totheU.S.,andthusfar,noneofthemhavedoneso.

InChina,afrequenttargetofMr.Trumpscriticism,heiswidelyviewedasapragmatistwhoislesshawkishandlessfocusedon
humanrightsthanMrs.Clintonis.

HisproposaltoimposehightaxesonChinesegoodsreceiveslittleattentionthere,andhistalkofChinasrapingtheUnited
Statesinunfairtradedealshasbeenmetwithshrugs,asiftosaythatchargeisnothingnew.Instead,theconversationfocuseson
Mr.TrumpsbusinesssuccessorhispronouncementsonpreventingforeignMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates,anattitude
thatjibeswiththeantipathyinmuchofChinatowardtheMuslimpopulationinthewesternprovinceofXinjiang.

ManyinChinabelieveapro-businessRepublicanpresidentwilltendtobepragmaticandChina-friendly,ifnotpro-China,said
WangDong,associateprofessorofinternationalstudiesatPekingUniversity.Therefore,manyinChinatendtoviewTrumps
remarksofimposingmorethan30percentoftariffsonChinaasrhetoricalcampaignlanguage.

Mr.TrumpsassertionthatAmericantroopsinSouthKoreaandJapanshouldbesentbacktotheUnitedStatesisinalignment
withofficial,thoughrarelystated,Chinesegoals.Buthissuggestion,laterreversedinpart,thatJapanandSouthKoreashouldbe
abletodeveloptheirownnucleararsenalsalarmedBeijing,especiallythenotionthatJapan,theoccupierofChinainWorldWarII,
wouldbecomeanuclearpower.

DavidE.SangerreportedfromWashingtonandSeoul,SouthKorea,andJimYardleyfromRome.JanePerlezandYufan
HuangcontributedreportingfromBeijing,andRichardMartyn-HemphillfromStockholm.

OLD[AMEMOFROMTHEPAST--GIVESCONTEXTTOJOSHCOHEN---HISTORIAN
EXTRAORDINAIRE]

[ED:AgoodCalifriendjustremindedyourstrulythatJoshCohen'slatestscreedinFPwassimplyatake-offoran
updateofanattackthathehadlaunchedbackinApril2015.[SEEAYTMEMOONTHESUBJECTBELOW
FROMTHEPERIOD]

Apparently,JC'smaximis:"If,atfirst,youdon'tsucceed,try...tryagain"!![HerbRcalledit"thetransformative
powerof'tellingasolidlieoftenenough'....."]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<ajmotyl@verizon.net>
Date:Wed,Apr29,2015at8:27AM
Subject:yourpiece
To:waz1@nyu.edu,waz2102@columbia.edu,wzarcusur@gmail.com

isverygood.Butit'llgetlostincyberspace,ifyoudon'tgetitpublishedsomewhere.Sinceit'sessentiallyarebuttaltoJCohen,whydon'tyou
sendit(sansthechatty,Ukr-relatedparts)toForeignPolicy?ThecontactpersonsareChristianCaryl(Christian.Caryl@foreignpolicy.com)
orMaxStrasser(Max.Strasser@foreignpolicy.com).

Best,Oles

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Wed,Apr29,2015at1:13AM
Subject:[BURNINGTHETRULYLATENITEOIL....ORBURNINGATBOTHENDSOFACANDLE]A'YoursTruly'AdvisoryMemoonthe
'OpenLettertoPresidentPoroshenko'
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

MYK......STARTHERE......PUTUPONFACEBOOK....with'Forwardedmessagetoshowtimesent']

DearFriends:

Lastweek,anitementitled"AnOpenLettertoPresidentPoroshenko",ostensiblyamemomeanttounderlinetherisksthatUkrainiangoverning
circlesweretakingwiththepotentialenactmentofasetof'de-communizationlaws',wasapparentlypostedonthewebsiteofthejournal'Krytyka'
andthenwentviralintheInternet.Judgingfromtherashofmailandthesetof'quickresponses'onthematterthatyourstrulyreceivedinthe
immediateaftermath,itwasnotastretchtoimaginethesaiditemstirringagreatdealofcontroversyandfrayingagoodnumberoflongterm
friendships.

Myinitialreactionwastotaketheissue'instride'or,essentially,toleaveitalone.Forone,accusationsof'extremism'assertedagainstthepresent
UAgovernment,thoughdemocraticallyelectedandavidlycentristinitspolitics(videMinskI&II),werebecominglegend(RThadfourorfivenew
onesaday)thereactionwas:"Whatelsewasnew?"Two,IthoughtthatpreparingforapresentationattheUNconcerningUARada'sexcellent
movetorecognizetheCrimeanTatarsasthe'trueindigenouspopulationofCrimea'wasmoreimportant.Finally,havingbeenaclose
observer/witnessofthelastyearsoftheColdWar,thewholeaffairseemed,atbest,an'awfuldistraction'---givenRU'songoinghybridwaragainst
Ukraineand,atworse,a'diversiya',asmygoodfriendandlegendaryexpertonSoviet'activemeasures',HerbRomerstein,waswonttosay.

Thisweekend,thatinitialreactionwassorelytested,whenoneofthesigners,Dr.John-PaulHimka(ofHolodomor-doubtingfame),decidedtoweb-
postaseconditem,a'follow-up'tothe'OpenLetter',assertingthattheUAgovernmentanditsvarious'informational'organswereopenlyengaged
inabetting,undertheguiseofde-communization',therehabilitationof'pastfascistforcesinUkraine'.

TheepisodewasfollowedinquicksuccessiononMondaybyJoshCohen(anold'Moscow'StateDept.handandlatelyapurveyorofthe
'Sanctionsdon'tworkagainstPutin'sentiment)launchingintoavelvetglovedtiradeofhisownontheselfsameissuethatHimkahadraised.Better
yet,Cohenresolvedtotakemattersacrucialstepfurther,suggesting(asRUforceswerebuffingupontheUAborderonceagain)thatthose
'darnedRUsocialmediatrolls'whowerecallingthepresentKyivgovernment'Nazis'mightjusthaveapointafterall.

Thementionedtandemprovokedan'OHBOY'momentofthehighestdegreeinaword,Iwas'furious'.Istillhadtheproblemofhavingtoprepare
forotherthingsinthenextdayortwo,soIknewthatwritingawellpreparedtreatiseonthesubjectwithsixcitationsperparagraphwasoutofthe
question.Butanicememo(withapossibleSwift-ianbitof'tongueandcheek'thrownin)tothoseonthe'bccinfochain'whohadthetimeorwere
braveenoughtoproperlychallengethe'writers/signersoftheOpenLetter'(andthe'increasinglyaccusatory'follow-uppieces)mightjustbethe
ticket.

Incomposingsuchanadvisorymemo,Idecidedthatperhapsthebestplacetostartwouldbetopointoutthesomeofthepitfallstoavoid(when
engagingthe'letter-signers'indiscussion).Theveryfirstsuchpitfallwouldbethetemptationtolashoutatanyoneinthegroupwithpersonal
accusations(likethepotshotItookatJ-PHimkainthepreviousparagraph).Lordknowsthatsuchatemptationwouldnotbecompletelywithout
merit.Acoupleofindividualsonthe'signerslist'havereputationsforengaginginscholarshipnotveryfarremovedfromthatofDougTottle,the
'famed'pro-SovietpamphleteerduringthelateColdWarperiodandauthoroftheeverilluminating"Fraud,FamineandFascism:TheUkrainian
GenocideMythfromHitlertoHarvard"(aworkwhichwasincidentallyfullofcitations,allunfortunatelytakendirectlyfrompamphletswrittenby
operativesinLubyanka).AndthereappeartobeacoupleofsignerswhoopenlysympathizedwiththeSovietUnionbackinheydaysoftheCold
War.Nevertheless,thereremainsalargehostofgood,honestscholarswhosignedbecausetheygenuinelyfeltthatthe'decommunizationprocess',
asenvisionedbytheratified(thoughasyetunsigned)legislation,mighthavelongtermdeleteriouseffectsonfreedomofexpressionandbelief.
Hence,anyargument,tobetakenseriously,wouldhavetoaddresstheirfears.Ineffect,theresponsewouldhavetodealwiththesubstanceofthe
issuesraisedintheletter(ratherthanwiththecredentials/characterofthesigners).

Inaddressingthesubstanceofletter,anothermajortemptation,andthereforepitfall,wouldbetoimitatethestructure/order/logicoftheletteritself.
Forreasonsknownonlytothefinaleditorsofthemissive,thefirstparagraphleadswithanattackontheUAgovernment'sallegedattemptto
rehabilitateallegedcrypto-fascistoroutrightfascistoutfitsspawnedduringtheWWII-ie-theUAnationalistformationsknownasOUN(the
OrganizationofUkrainianNationalists)andUPA(theUkrainianInsurgentArmy).Onlyinthesecondparagraphdoestheletterfinallyspeaktothe
ostensibleissueonhand-ie-'decommunizationproper'anditssupposedperilstoafreesociety.Again,thetemptation(byresponders)tofollow
suitemightproveoverwhelmingthepatrioticurgetodefendtheEuro-MaidanborngovernmentortheoldColdWarrior'surgetoportraytheattack
onOUN-UPAaspartandparcelofaseventyyearSovietlaunchedcampaigntobesmirchamuchfeared'UAnationalliberationmovement'might
trumpallotherconsiderations.Tosuccumbtotheurgewouldbeafundamentalmistake.Whateverelseanyonemightsay,theprimarytaskofthe
'decommunizationlaws'istoridtheUAsociety/stateofthe'symbols/iconsofcommunistrule'.Thisissueshouldremainthecentralfocus.

Insayingthatthecentralfocusofthedebateshouldbe"theproprietyofremovingthesymbols/iconsofcommunistruleinUkraine",afinal
potentialpitfallsurfaces.Thepitfallhastodowithopeningupanideologicaldebate,orbetteryet,anideologicaldivide,betweentheleftandthe
right.Theremightbeatemptationonthepartofagoodnumberofresponderstogetintoa'globaldiscussion'withthesignersaboutthegeneral
merits/demeritsofcommunism.Theresulting'intellectualfoodfight'wouldpitthosewhoconsidercommunismasatotalitarianideainwhosename
massmurderhasbeenrepeatedlycommittedvs.thosewhowouldbelievethat'Communism'wassimply'utopiagonewrong'(theirownyouthful
idealism'dissipated'),unliketheunadulteratedevilof'Nazism'.Thatframeworkisonetobeavoidedwhentryingtounderstandcommunistrulein
Ukraine.

InUkraine,tounderstand'theeraofcommunistrule',onemustusetheproperwordfortheparticularmanifestationofcommunisminthecountry
thetermis"Bolshevism".

Oncethetwosidesmightagreetodiscuss'BolshevikruleinUkraine'andthepropriety[orimpropriety]ofremovingbothitsiconsanditsmemory
fromtheUkrainelandscapeandpsyche,muchcouldbeenaccomplished.Andthathasalottodowithacceptinganothertermintheequationas
well:"occupation".

Why?Well,letusrememberthatBolshevism,amoreextremeversionofRussianMarxism(orRU'stakeonCommunism),wasnotindigenousto
Ukraine.Forbetterorworse,Ukrainehaditsowndeepandrichtraditionofstrivingforsocialjustice-ie-Socialism(ithappenswhenyougetde-
serfedaslateas1861)!!Thespectrumrangedfromtheanarchist(today,libertarian)socialismofMakhnothruthepeasantlovingSocial
RevolutionaryanticsofM.Hrushevskytothemoderate(SocialDemocratic)MarxismofPetlura-VinnychenkoandontonativeUkrainian
CommunismembodiedintheUKP/Borobists.Infact,thelastoftheUkrainiangovernmentsduringUkraine'sshort-livedindependenceinthepost
WWIperiod[1918-1921]wasrunbyaallianceofthesefeudingleftwingUkrainianparties.BolshevismhadnorealrootsinUkraine,evenasittried
tosetupa"pre-DNR"DNRsituationinKharkivin1919-21.OnlywhentheRedArmy(aidedbyaWhiteRUarmythatfoughtit,buttheUkrainians
more)arrivedfromRussia,didtheweakened(bybothwhiteandredRUforces)Ukrainianindependententityfinallyfailandgivewayto'Bolshevik
RuleinUA'!Inaword,asstatedbefore,'occupation'occurred!

Intheearlytwentiesbecauseofthepainsofearlygrowth,Bolshevikruleor'occupation'ofUkrainedifferedlittlefrom'other'colonialoccupations'
[Note:yes,evensocialistscouldengagein'dreamsofimperium',givenitsnon-monetaryrewards].Infact,becauseofthegrowingpains,the
[Kremlinbased]BolsheviksmadethemistakeoflettingthoseUkrainianswhoprovedloyaltotheirrulehaveabitoflee-way[rememberthatNEP
wasnotsimplyabouteconomics].ThatmistakewasnotedbyStalinwhenhecametopower.Heck,thoseUA'loyalists',UkrainianBolshevikslike
KhyvlovyandSkrypnyk,seemedtohaveamindoftheirown(justlikealltheircompatriots).Atthatpoint,theoccupationturnedintosomething
differentinthelatetwenties,itturned'genocidal'.

Again,whywouldsomeonehavetherighttomakethatassertion?BecausetheFatheroftheterm'genocide',RafaelLemkin,madetheverypointin
1953.HesuccinctlyelaboratedontheBolshevikfourstepplanforUkraineandUkrainians:[1]firsttakeouthead---theintelligentsia,NEP-men,rich
peasants[2]thentakeouttheheart---theclergy[3]thenaimforthebody..themiddleandpoorpeasants[4]finally----takeoutthenativeloyalists
andreplacethemwithyourownfolks.

Intheearly1930's,'[RUCommunist]BolshevikruleinUkraine'meant"genocide"(nation-killing).Admittedly,thatchangedabitwhenStalinandhis
politicaldescendantscametotwofurtherconclusions.OnewasthatthereweretoomanyofthosedarnedUkrainianstokilltheotherwasthatthe
Ukrainians,'nowhousebroken',mightserveasusefulfodderagainsttheenemiesoftheCCCP.Andsoitwentforatime.InWWII,Ukrainianswere
usedtograbpartsofFinlandin1940,defendStalingradagainsttheNazis(thatacesniperwasaUke)in1942-3,liberateAuschwitzinJan1945and
makearunonBerlininApril-May1945.Duringtheearly(nearhot)ColdWar,theUkrainiansprovedusefulNCOsinthegloriousSovietArmy
facingthosedamnedYankeeimperialistsinFuldaGap.Indeed,asareward,anewUAloyalist,PetroShelestwasgivenasolidseatatthePolitburo
tableintheKremlin.

Yet,forallhisloyalty,whentheoldUABolshevik(ararebreed)decidedtotalkabouthis"SovietUkraine"in1970-2,hebroughtdownhellon
himselfandhiscountrymen.BolshevikruleinUkraineduringthesecondhalfofBrezhnev's'eraofstagnation'turnedto'ethnocide'(theUA
dissidentStephanKhmaracoinedtheterm)replacingShelestwithacompletetoadynamedScherbytsky,theKremlinengagedin'immersed
RussificationofUkraine'throughoutthelate1970sand1980s.By1989-90,whenIvisitedLviv(thecityofmyancestors)forthefirsttime,eventhat
bastion'ofallthingsUkrainian'hadverydistinctnon-Ukrainianaspectstoit.

Ineffect,Bolshevik[RedRussian,tobeblunt]ruleinUkraineinvolvedphysical(genocidal)andspiritual(ethnocidal)'nationbreaking'(ofthe
worsesort).Andtheeffectsofthatwerenoteasytostop(orreverse).EvenafterUkrainereneweditsindependencein1991,thedamagedoneto
theUkrainianpsychewasevidentateveryturn.Throughoutthe1990s,manyUkrainianslivedasiftheywerestillintheSovietUniontheysaidas
much.Betteryet,thegreatawakeningin2004-5,theOrangeRevolution,didrelativelylittletochangetheunderlyingperception.ZbigBrzezinski,
alwayswonderfullyblunt,atoneofourUAQuestRoundtablesafterYushchenkoassumedthepresidency(anddeclaredforthe'Euro-Atlantic'
path),tooktheVAYtotaskforwanting"intoEUandNATO"whiletoleratingabigLeninstatuteatamajorUAairbaseinNorthUkraine(near
Desna).

ForUkrainewatchers,itwasonlywiththecomingoftheEuro-Maidan(andeventuallywiththenewgovernmentitspawnedinearly2014),that'the
senseof'occupation'begantotrulydisperse.Andironically,whetherthesigners/writersoftheOpenLetterwanttoadmititornot,theprocesswas
bestsymbolizedbythetakeoveroftheofficesofpower(controlledbytheproRURegionsfolk),theclosingdownofthevariousCommunistparty
headquarters,the'demont'ofLeninstatueslargeorsmallthroughoutCentral/EastUkraineandtheburningofStalinphotosinplaceslike
Zaporizhe!TheBolshevik'occupation'wasfinallyfullyendinginUkraine.TheRedparthaddisappearedin1991theRUpartwasdisappearing
rightbeforeeveryone'sMaidanenlightenedeyes!!

Finally,guesswhobestsensedwhattheMaidanandspinoffactivityactuallymeantandcontinuestomean?ThecastofcharactersfromKremlin
centralcastingthatwehavecometoloveandknowinthelastyear:Ol'Strelkov-GirkinofDNRfameandPutin'smainideologueAlexanderDugin.
Hence,despitebeingrightofAttilatheHun(hatetoinsultAttilathatway)intheirnationalchauvinism,racism,anti-semitismandhomophobia,the
twonamedhavecontinuedtolamenttheremovalofsuchlefticonographyasthestatutesofLeninandthevarious'hammer&sickle'emblems
embeddedineverymajordoorofeveryofficialbuildinginUkraine.Theyareinrealitylamentingthe'endoftheoccupation'.

Armedwiththe'occupation'paradigm,aresponderwouldbereadytobringsometoughquestionstotheattentionthe'writers/signersoftheOpen
Letter'(youknewwewouldcomebacktothat).

Perhapstheveryfirstsetofquestionsonemightaskthe'letter-signers'wouldbethefollowing:Indefendingtherightofindividualstobelievethat
CommunistruleinUkrainehada'goodside',whichaspectofthatruleshouldusedasanexample?ThePeriodofGenocide?Ortheperiodof
Ethnocide?OrthetimeinbetweenwhenUkrainianswereusedtoinvadeFinland?

Inrapidsuccession,onemightfollowupbyasking:Don'tyoufinditjustalittledisturbingthatyouarelamentingtheprohibitionoftheverysame
symbolsasthelikesofGirkinandDugin?Anddon'tyoufindittheleastbituncomfortabletobeerstwhilebedfellowswithfolkswhowouldhave
no'truck'withyouoryourbeliefs?

Asatopper,onemightleaveourdear'OpenLetter-men'withonefurtherquestiontocontemplate:TheremayhavebeenhonestBolsheviksin
Ukrainebetween1917and1991,butdidyouevernoticethattheyusuallyendedupinagraveorinexile(videKhvylovy,Skrypnyk,Shelest)right
alongsidethose'damnedfascist'Banderites'?

Oncetherespondershadcompletedtheirprimarytask,itistruethatthebraveronesmightpushtheenvelopeandexploretwofurtherquestions
(onesIsuggestedwerenotatheheartofthe'decommunization'issueandcouldbeleftforalaterdebate).ThefirstwouldbeaboutthoseWWII
formationsthatmostpostMaidanUkrainians,ofwhateverideologicalpersuasions(mostlycentrist),ethnicbackgroundorreligiouspersuasion
havecometoseeas'thevanguardofthenationalliberationstruggle'butwhichtheCCCPhadforseventyyearslabelled'fascist'---withbatchesof
documentssentWestevenduringtheColdWartoprovethepoint.

HavinghadthepleasureofknowingtwoindividualswhohavehadaccesstooldSovietarchives,thealreadymentionedHerbRomersteinandDr.
YuriShapovaloftheUkrainianAcademyofSciences,IhaveheardeachindicatethattheRussianDezinformapparathadsobadlymangledthe
reputationoftheoutfitslikeOUNandUPAthat'theirmotherswouldnotrecognizethem'.GiventhatthepostMaidanperiodhadfinallygiven
historiansaccesstomostoftheSovietfilesonthetwooutfits,wouldn'titmakesensetoactuallytorunacoupleofseriousscholarlyconferences
beforemakingafinalhistoricaljudgementontheentitiesinquestion?

Thesecondwouldbeatouchierquestionandwouldtrulyrequirecourage.ItwouldcanvasthemajorityoffinescholarswhosignedontheOpen
letterwhethertheythoughtHolodomor-doubtingandoverlycloserelationswiththeoldCCCP(substituteHolocaustandNaziGermanyfor
comparison)disqualifiedsomeonefrombeingtakenseriouslyasascholar.

ThoughtsOutofaSeason!

WAZ

PS:Iknowitslateatnight....butIamstilltryingtowrapmyheadaroundthefactthatsomany85pound'BanderaBewegung'typescomingoutof
thevariousGermanKZaspoliticalprisonersin1945havemorphedintoNaziicons70yearslater!!Idon'tgetit!!Itmustsimplybethelackof
sleep!!

2016PS[AnImportantPersonalAdd-on]:Oneofthose85pounderswasmybelovedfather-in-law,VolodymyrKostyk---comingout
ofMauthausenII(thedeathcampintheM-Gcomplex)