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Investment Research — General Market Conditions

05 August 2010

Commodities Daily
Commodities news
Today’s key points
 Overview – Commodities little changed overnight; base metals saw decent gains on
Wednesday, whereas oil fell back a little after the US stock report showed that  German factory orders

distillate stocks rose last week. Wheat futures’ rally regains strength and are now up  BOE and ECB meetings
more than 60% since June. Chinese regulators yesterday told banks to test for a 60%
drop in home prices – base scenario is 30% decline in property prices. Higher-than-
forecasted ADP employment and services ISM are pushing stocks higher worldwide.
Moreover, Rio Tinto has just reported better-than-expected H1 earnings. BP has Commodities overview
finally managed to permanently close the leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico.
Contract Last price %, d/d
 Grains – Wheat extending its July rally as Russian drought grows more severe. The WTI, NYMEX 1. pos 82.4 -0.2
world grains markets have become increasingly dependent on the Black Sea region Brent, ICE 1. pos 82.4 -0.4
for crops in recent years and hence the downward revisions have sparked remarkable Heating Oil, NYMEX 1. pos 219.4 -0.3
price spikes lately. The UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) said yesterday Gasoline, NYMEX 1. pos 218.3 -0.5
however that the panic was overdone, noting that the situation today is very different
Aluminium, LME 3M 2230 1.2
from the one in 2007/08 when stocks were much lower.
Copper, LME 3M 7446 0.3
 China - China in focus again after stress test conditions were announced. While the Lead, LME 3M 2228 0.3
market took the July drop in Chinese PMIs fairly lightly, the increasing focus on the Nickel, LME 3M 21715 0.2
overheated property market could spark a correction in not least base metals. Notably Zinc, LME 3M 2123 1.8
China has been a key consumer of metals since the start of the recovery, not least due Steel, LME 3M 502 4.6
to the large-scale infrastructure projects that the government initiated in order to Hot Rol Coil, NYMEX 1. pos 560 -3.4
stimulate the domestic economy after the crisis.
Gold, spot 1201 1.2
 US - The ISM non-manufacturing index unexpectedly rose in July and the details Silver, spot 19 0.6
were encouraging, as both new orders and employment rose. According to the ISM
Wheat, CBOT 1. pos 737.5 8.5
indices this does not look like a double dip so far, more like a growth pause. Our
economists look for the payroll report due for release on Friday to show an increase in Corn, CBOT 1. pos 395.0 1.4
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.
private jobs of +80K.

The agricultural segment has caught up with other commodities of late


Commodities Research:

Chief Analyst
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen
+45 4521 8532
arr@danskebank.dk

Senior Analyst
Christin Tuxen
+45 45137867
tux@danskebank.dk

Commodities Sales:

Senior Dealer
Martin Vorgod
+45 4514 3286
mavo@danskebank.dk

Vice President
Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Fredrik Åberg
+45 4514 3285
fredrik.aberg@danskebank.dk

Bloomberg: DRFX <GO>

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Commodities Daily

Commodity-price movements

05.08.2010 Yesterday Month ago Year ago This year


Last price %, today Close %, d/d Price %, m/m Price %, y/y %, YTD
Energy (1. pos):
NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) 82.4 -0.3 82.5 -0.1 72.1 14.2 72.0 15.3 3.8
ICE Brent ($/bbl) 82.4 -0.2 82.2 -0.6 71.5 15.0 75.5 10.9 5.7
NYMEX Heating Oil ($/gallon) 219.4 0.0 220.2 0.1 191.5 14.5 195.7 15.4 3.5
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/gallon) 218.3 -0.2 217.5 -0.8 197.8 10.4 205.1 6.1 6.3
ICE Gasoil ($/ton) 692.0 -0.3 693.5 0.4 608.0 12.7 607.0 16.2 8.9
ICE NWE Jet Fuel, CIF ($/ton) 752.6 -0.1 754.9 0.1 659.4 12.9 666.2 13.7 7.5
TTF NL Natural Gas (€/mwh) 19.2 1.1 19.0 -0.5 20.7 -7.3 9.5 101.9 47.7
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 4.7 0.3 4.7 2.1 4.7 -0.4 4.0 16.7 -16.2
Nordpool electricity (€/mwh) 44.4 0.5 44.1 0.1 46.8 -5.0 - - -
Fuel oil, 1%, FOB NWE ($/ton) 489.5 0.4 487.5 - 446.5 3.8 301.3 53.8 81.3
Fuel oil, 3.5%, FOB ARA ($/ton) 457.5 0.4 455.5 - 433.0 3.7 227.0 97.8 98.2
API2 steam coal, CIF ARA ($/ton) 95.3 -0.3 95.7 0.8 94.1 0.0 68.8 36.6 14.4
ICE ECX Carbon Emission (€/tn) 14.3 -0.7 14.4 -0.4 15.4 -6.7 15.1 -4.8 14.4

Base metals:
Aluminium, LME 3M, $/ton 2230 -0.1 2228 1.1 1937 15.2 2070 12.1 0.0
Copper, LME 3M, $/ton 7446 -0.5 7505 1.1 6469 16.2 6200 23.1 1.0
Lead, LME 3M, $/ton 2228 -0.6 2243 1.0 1765 27.1 1950 16.0 -8.4
Nickel, LME 3M, $/ton 21715 0.0 21950 1.3 18675 15.5 20450 12.2 17.2
Zinc, LME 3M, $/ton 2123 -0.2 2120 1.7 1807 19.3 1925 14.6 -17.1
Steel, LME 3M, $/ton 502 0.2 502 4.6 425 18.1 388 29.5 22.6
Hot Rolled Coil, NYMEX, 1. pos, $/ton 560 -3.4 580 0.0 610 -8.2 480 16.7 1.8

Precious Metals (spot, $/t oz.):


Gold 1201 -0.4 1200 1.1 1208.3 -0.7 962.8 24.1 9.4
Silver 19 -0.8 18 -0.4 17.8 5.1 14.7 26.2 10.1

Agriculturals (1. pos):


CBOT Wheat ($/bu.) 737.5 1.6 725.8 6.7 487.8 51.2 528.8 39.5 36.2
Matif Mill Wheat (€/ton) 204.3 2.8 204.3 2.9 141.8 44.1 129.0 57.1 55.6
CBOT Corn ($/bu.) 395.0 -0.9 400.3 2.8 364.0 8.5 347.0 11.4 -4.7
CBOT Soybeans ($/bu.) 1060.8 -0.2 1053.0 0.0 962.8 10.2 1175.0 -8.9 2.0
NYBOT Sugar ($/lb.) 18.9 1.6 18.6 -4.2 16.7 13.1 19.4 -2.4 -29.9

Commodity indices (total return):


DJ-UBS 275 1.2 272 -0.2 249 10.5 267 3.2 -1.5
S&P GSCI 4409 0.6 4384 0.8 3905 12.9 4456 -1.1 -2.8
Reuters CRB 279 0.8 276 -0.1 254 9.6 268 4.1 -1.5
Rogers commodity index 3279 0.9 3262 0.3 2898 13.2 3087 6.2 0.2
DJ-AIG 136 1.2 135 -0.2 124 10.1 133 3.6 -2.0
S&P GSCI Energy 972 0.0 972 1.5 862 12.6 1012 -3.9 -4.4
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 1660 1.1 1660 -1.0 1435 15.7 1477 13.4 -2.7
S&P GSCI Precious Metals 1535 0.5 1535 0.2 1556 -1.4 1259 23.5 7.8
S&P GSCI Agriculture 592 3.2 592 -1.3 515 14.8 585 0.8 -3.9
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

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Commodities Daily

Energy
Oil prices US crude oil stocks, EIA

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

WTI (NYMEX) forward curve Brent (ICE) curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Jet fuel and gasoil crack spreads Gasoline crack spread, RBOB, NYMEX 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Heating oil crack spread, NYMEX 1. pos Fuel oil, NWE, crack spreads

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

CO2 emission rights, ICE 1. pos Electricity, Nordpool quarterly, 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Natural gas, 1. pos API2 coal, 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Commodities Daily

Metals
Aluminium Aluminium forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Copper Copper forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Nickel Nickel forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Commodities Daily

Zinc Zinc forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Copper SHFE-LME spread Steel

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Gold and silver Gold forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Commodities Daily

Grains
Wheat Milling wheat forward curve, NYSE LIffe

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Corn, CBOT 1. pos Corn forward curve, CBOT

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Soybeans, CBOT 1. pos Soybeans forward curve, CBOT

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Commodities Daily

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Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report


Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology
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