You are on page 1of 7

EQUITIES DAILY

Equity Research • 05.08.2010

Index Value Change (%)


Danish Day Week Month YTD
OMX COPENHAGEN (OMXC20) 424 -0.4 % 2.6 % 8.2 % 25.8 %
US
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 10680 0.4 % 1.7 % 10.3 % 2.4 %
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2304 0.9 % 1.7 % 10.1 % 1.5 %
S&P 500 INDEX 1127 0.6 % 1.9 % 10.2 % 1.1 %
European
FTSE 100 5386 -0.2 % 1.2 % 11.7 % -0.5 %
DOW JONES EUROSTOXX 50 INDEX 2825 0.2 % 2.1 % 12.7 % -4.7 %

Publisher: DAX INDEX 6331 0.4 % 2.5 % 8.9 % 6.3 %


Jyske Markets OMX (STOCKHOLM) INDEX 1071 -0.2 % 1.9 % 9.2 % 12.6 %
Equities
Vestergade 8 -16 Asian
DK - 8600 Silkeborg NIKKEI 225 INDEX 9641 1.6 % -0.6 % 4% -8.6 %

Assisting Analyst:
Other key figures
Niels Lykke Sørensen Oil 82.47 -0.1 % 7.1 % 14.3 % 3.9 %
+ 45 89 89 70 39
Niels.Lykke.Soerensen@jysk USD/DKK 5.66 -0.1 % -0.7 % -5.1 % 8.2 %
ebank.dk Source: Bloomberg - 05-08-2010.

Translation: Yesterday’s market


Translation Services
With an increase of 2.8%, Vestas was the best performer in the OMXC20 index yesterday afternoon. But
since most of the 20 equities closed in negative territory, the Danish index closed slightly down by
0.4%.

An investigation from Bloomberg New Energy Finance showed that it has become cheaper to invest in
wind turbines since 2008 and that falling prices are also expected over the coming years. The price for
1 MW for delivery is now EUR 1.04. The news was positive for Vestas as the declines were not as high
as feared.

With an increase of 2.7%, DSV followed Vestas closely. The DSV rival Panalpina released poorer-than-
expected accounts, but the accounts also included positive prospects for the sector in general, which
Read more equity-
research reports on contributed to the increase of the DSV share.
www.jyskemarkets.com/
The share-in-focus this week is Novo Nordisk, which has this morning turned in its Q2 accounts. After
several increases in recent days, the share declined by 1.7% yesterday.

Disclaimer: In the US the game-producer Electronic Arts delivered excellent quarterly accounts, which made the
Please see the last page share increase by 7.4%. In general, the US equity markets also slightly outperformed the European
equity markets. Nasdaq closed up by 0.9% and S&P 500 followed suit with an increase of 0.6%.
EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 05.08.2010
Yesterday’s winners Yesterday’s losers
VESTAS WIND 2.8 % WILLIAM DEMANT -2.3 %
DSV A/S 2.7 % NKT HOLDING -2.0 %
Novozymes B 1.8 % D/S NORDEN -1.9 %
H LUNDBECK A 1.5 % NOVO NORDISK -1.7 %
DANISCO AS 1.5 % NORDEA BANK -1.5 %
COLOPLAST-B 1.0 % JYSKE BANK-R -1.2 %
TRYG A/S 0.4 % DANSKE BANK -1.0 %
CARLSBERG-B 0 %- SYDBANK -0.8 %
FLSMIDTH & C -0.3 % A. P. MØLLER - A -0.7 %
TOPDANMARK A -0.3 % A. P. MØLLER - B -0.6 %

The market today


Today’s and also the week’s major event in Denmark is the release of the quarterly accounts from
Novo Nordisk, which has been turned in this morning before the opening of the Danish equity
market.
See our first comments overleaf.

In the afternoon unemployment figures from the US will, among other things, be announced, and in
Europe the ECB will hold a monetary-policy meeting, at which interest rates are expected to be held
at 1.0%.

EXPECTATIONS OF THE OPENING OF THE DANISH MARKET*

DAX Index Price DAX Future Price 30-day correlation

0.29%* 6,331.33 6,349.50 79 %


*Note: Expectations of the opening of the Danish market have been estimated on the basis on indications by the DAX future index as to
the opening of the German market. The DAX future index opens one hour before the start of trading in the Danish market. The background
for using the German index instead of the Danish index is that there is low liquidity in the Danish futures market. Historically, there has
been a good correlation between the indicated opening of the Germany market and the opening of the Danish market. The table shows the
correlation between the return at 8.15 a.m. for the DAX future index and at 9.15 a.m. for the C20 index for the last 30 business days.

Source: Bloomberg and boerse-frankfurt.de 04.08.2010

2
EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 05.08.2010
GN Great Nordic (ACCUMULATE (Reduce)): We upgrade our recommendation for GN Great Nordic to
ACCUMULATE (from Reduce) with a price target of DKK 48 per share. Following the recent price declines,
the GN Great Nordic share now has a fundamental upside of approx. 18% in relation to our DCF model.
A forecast from Plantronics which was marginally weak and slight uncertainty about the development
in the French hearing aids market have resulted in higher caution about the GN Great Nordic share
which has dropped back by 12% since early June whereas OMXC20 has during the same period of time
increased by 10%. JB: In the coming years, GN Great Nordic is facing a significant advance in earnings
at ReSound and Netcom after both divisions implemented comprehensive restructuring measures in
2008 and 2009. In addition, the market prospects for Netcom and ReSound look positive after the
financial crisis and the economic slowdown had adverse effects.

Novo Nordisk (REDUCE): Today’s accounts from Novo were a positive surprise to the market, and the
company upgraded its anticipations of the result. Q2 was somewhat better than expected. Novo Nordisk
exceeded market anticipations by approx. 5% with respect to sales and the bottom line and by just
above 9% with respect to operating earnings. Novo reported increases across the board and except for
human insulin and hormone drugs, Novo exceeded market anticipations in all segments. We expect
that the market will applaud the accounts from Novo and an increase of 2-4% is, in our view, realistic.

A.P. Møller-Mærsk (ACCUMULATE): We saw good announcements in the accounts from the container
shipping companies Orient Overseas and Hanjin in relation to Maersk Line. Orent Overseas announced a
good demand for container freight in July-August although the advance may slow down in September.
Hanjin has also seen a strong volume not at the beginning of the peak season. An element of
uncertainty is, however, rising capacity particularly in the Asia-Europe routes (the most important
ones for Maersk Line). According to Orient Overseas, the stories about shortage of containers are
exaggerated. JB: We still expect strong market conditions for Maersk Line, but the uncertainty about
the development on the other side of the peak season is still present. We reiterate our ACCUMULATE
recommendation.

FLSmidth (REDUCE): The mining giant Rio Tinto and the rival Outotec have released accounts that are
both interesting in relation to FLSmidth. Rio Tinto announced that its annual investments are coming
close to USD 6bn, which is not a surprise compared to its previous announcements. But the mining
giant announced that it expects investments of no less than USD 9bn in 2011. This proves, in our view,
that much is happening in the mining sector currently after a slow period during the financial crisis.
This is also indicated by announcements from Outotec. Although Outotec disappointed with an EPS of
EUR 0.09 in Q2 (consensus: EUR 0.12), the announcements about the mining sector are good. There
has been a rising number of negotiations during the quarter driven, among other things, by continuing
good prospects for the demand for metals in emerging markets. A rising production capacity in the
mines all over the world results in an increasing need for service. JB: We still expect decent growth for
FLSmidth in this segment, but also believe that this growth has been discounted in the current share
price. We also expect that the order inflow in Minerals has peaked this year with an excellent
development in Q2. On this background, we maintain our REDUCE recommendation.

Lufthansa (BUY): Lufthansa’s air-freight division announced that it will raise prices as of 1 October
2010. The is a clear signal that the demand for air freight is still rising. Please note that volume and
freight prices were hit hard during the recession. JB: As far as we know, this is the first price increase
since the recession started. We reiterate our BUY recommendation for Lufthansa and our price target
of EUR 15.

3
EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 05.08.2010

OMX C20 (30 days) Dow Jones (30 days)

430 10.800

10.600
420
10.400
410
10.200

400 10.000

9.800
390
9.600
380
9.400

370 9.200

S&P 500 (30 days) NIKKEI 225(30 days)

1140,0
9.900
1120,0
9.800
1100,0
9.700
1080,0
9.600
1060,0
9.500
1040,0 9.400
1020,0 9.300
1000,0 9.200
980,0 9.100
960,0 9.000
8.900

DAX Index (30 days) Oil spot price (30 days)

6400,0 84

6300,0 82

6200,0 80

6100,0 78

6000,0 76

5900,0 74

5800,0 72

5700,0 70

5600,0 68
5500,0 66

Switch recommendation
Jyske Bank recommends the following switches:
From Genmab (REDUCE) to NeuroSearch (BUY).
From D/S Norden (REDUCE) and Torm (REDUCE) to A.P. Møller-Mærsk (ACCUMULATE)
From Pfizer (SELL) to Sanofi-Aventis (BUY)
From Novo Nordisk (REDUCE) to Sanofi-Aventis (BUY) and Novozymes (BUY)
From FLSmidth (REDUCE) to NKT Holding (BUY)
From Nordea (REDUCE) to Danske Bank (BUY)

4
EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 05.08.2010

Anticipated corporate news in our equity-research universe


Company Event Effect on share price*
Danish
Novo Nordisk Q2 accounts
European
Hannover Re Q2 accounts
*The effect on the share price is in the range of 1-5 with 5 showing a potential major effect on the share price.

Important accounts outside our equity-research universe


Company
US
INTL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES
European
GIVAUDAN-REG
BARCLAYS PLC
FRAPORT AG
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG-REG
UNILEVER NV-CVA
TELECOM ITALIA SPA

Macroeconomic events
Time Event
US
14:30 USD Jobless claims
Jobless claims, total
CAD Construction permits
European
N/A GBP monetary-policy meeting at the BoE
EUR monetary-policy meeting at the ECB
09:00 ESP Industrial production
09:30 SEK Unemployment
10:00 NOK Unemployment
12:00 DEM Industrial orders
13:00 GBP Interest-rate announcement from the BoE
13:45 EUR Interest-rate announcement from the ECB
EUR Press conference at the ECB
07:45 CHF Unemployment
Asian and others
03:30 AUD Monetary-policy report from RBA
07:00 JPY Leading economic indicator

Yours faithfully,

JYSKE MARKETS
Jyske Bank
Equities

5
EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 05.08.2010

Disclaimer & Disclosure


Jyske Bank is subject to supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority.

Jyske Bank's analysts are subject to the recommendations of The Danish Securities Dealers Association on the handling of conflicts of interest in investment
banks.

The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the correctness of the material
nor for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be
changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied.

This report is an investment research report.

Conflicss of interest
Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent and preclude conflicts of interest thus ensuring that research reports are being prepared in an objective manner.
These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank.

Moreover, equity analysts at Jyske Bank cannot trade in companies and papers for which they prepare research reports. Jyske Bank may, however, hold positions,
have interests in or business relations with the companies that are analysed. The research report has not been presented to the company prior to its release. The
analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports.

Read more about Jyske Bank's policy on conflicts of interest at www.jyskebank.dk/terms

Jyske Bank's share recommendations - current allocation

Allocation of recommendations, Danish shares (number) Allocation of recommendations, all shares (number)
14
20
12
10 15
8
10
6
4 5
2
0 0
Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce Sell Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce Sell

Source: Jyske Bank Source: Jyske Bank


Financial models
Jyske Bank employs one or more of the following models: Discounted cash flow (free cash flow), Economic Value Added and the dividend model to determine the
fundamental value of a company. The fundamental value is compared to a relative valuation based on multiples such as P/E and EV/EBITA. The
recommendation and the price target are moreover adjusted for the expected news flow and the market sentiment based on knowledge of the industry and
company-specific circumstances. Jyske Bank’s recommendations take into account the expected development in the equity market, the various sectors and
company-specific circumstances.

Risk
Investment in this share is associated with a risk. Movements in the equity market, the sector and/or news flows, etc. regarding the company may affect the
price of the share. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the share. The risk factors stated and/or calculations of
sensitivities in the research report are not to be considered all-encompassing. If the share is traded in a currency other than the investor’s base currency, the
investor accepts an FX risk. In connection with an ADR or similar papers, the FX risk exists relative to the currency in which the underlying share trades.

Update of the research report


The planned update of the report will be prepared immediately upon the release of the company’s financial statements.
See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report.
All prices stated are the latest closing prices before the release of the report, unless otherwise stated.

6
EQUITIES DAILY
Equity Research • 05.08.2010
Recommendation Return relative to the performance of the
general equity market
BUY >5%
ACCUMULATE 0 to 5%
NEUTRAL 0%
REDUCE 0 to -5%
SELL < -5%
Source: Jyske Bank

Share recommendation concepts


Our recommendations are relative to the market development and are based on an evaluation of the forecast return within the coming 12 months. The forecast
return is the difference between the current price and our 12-month price target (the price target includes the projected dividend). A positive recommendation
(BUY or ACCUMULATE) is based on expectations that an investment in the share will yield a return above the general equity market. On the other hand, a
negative recommendation (REDUCE or SELL) implies that we expect an investment in the share to yield a return below the general equity market.

Since our recommendations are relative and risk-adjusted, it is possible to compare our recommendations across sectors and risk categories. In addition, the
potential is stated in absolute terms via our price target. It should be borne in mind, however, that the recommendation is the anchor. A BUY recommendation is
a BUY recommendation until the recommendation has been changed, also in the event that price increases have taken the price "too close" to the price target.

The future and historical returns estimated in the research report are stated as returns before costs since returns after costs depend on a number of factors
relating to individual customer relations, custodian charges, volume of trade as well as market-, currency- and product-specific factors. It is not certain that the
share will yield the stated expected future return/s. The stated expected future returns exclusively express our best assessment.