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QUALIFICATIONS 1.00 PM 4.00 PM

APPLIED

2007 MATHEMATICS

ADVANCED HIGHER

Statistics

Read carefully

2. Candidates should answer all questions.

Section A assesses the Units Statistics 1 and 2

Section B assesses the Unit Mathematics for Applied Mathematics

3. Full credit will be given only where the solution contains appropriate working.

4. A booklet of Statistical Formulae and Tables is supplied for all candidates.

Section A (Statistics 1 and 2)

Marks

Answer all the questions.

A1. In a major financial organisation, all junior executives, male (M) and female

(F), are required to undertake an assessment in order to determine their

suitability (S) for promotion to senior executive posts. An independent

auditor determined that, for the methods used, P(M|S) = 0.9 and that

P(F|S) = 0.1.

(a) Explain why it would be incorrect to claim sex discrimination on the

basis of the inequality of these two probabilities. 1

(b) Currently 75% of junior executives are deemed suitable for promotion

and 20% of junior executives are female. Calculate both P(S|M) and

P(S|F) and comment on the question of discrimination. 5

A2. (a) Glass bottles manufactured for the food industry are monitored for

quality by selecting a sample consisting of a randomly chosen bottle

from the first 20 produced and every 20th bottle thereafter, as they

come off the conveyor belt. Name this type of sampling. 1

(b) The bottles are formed by the action of compressed air on gobs of

molten glass within a moulding machine. There are 25 moulds in the

machine and each bottle is stamped to identify the mould that it came

from. Every hour, a sample consisting of four randomly chosen bottles

from each of the 25 moulds is selected. Name this type of sampling. 1

(c) Give either a potential advantage or potential disadvantage associated

with each of the two methods and state, with a reason, which you would

recommend. 3

A3. A company operates a batch chemical production process with yield X kg,

where X ~ N(2250, 1402). In order for the process to remain economically

viable, the company wishes to raise the mean yield to at least 2400 kg. It has

been suggested that the use of a new catalyst will lead to increased yield. An

experiment is planned in which a random sample of 10 yields will be

obtained and subsequently H0 : = 2250 will be tested, using a z-test at the

1% level of significance, against H1 : > 2250.

(a) State the critical region of the test in terms of z and show that it is

equivalent to the sample mean satisfying the inequality x > 2353. 3

(b) With the new catalyst, X ~ N(2400, 1402). Calculate the probability

that the test would fail to provide evidence of improved mean yield. 4

Marks

A4. Passengers on a cruise ship were asked to assess, on a scale from 1 to 20

(where 1 represents none), the amount of motion experienced during their

cruise. The median score from data for a large number of passengers was

12. After new stabilisers were fitted, the scores reported by a random

sample of 15 passengers were:

9 11 12 11 8 14 11 7 10 12 13 9 11 8 9.

Perform a sign test in order to evaluate the evidence from the data that the

new stabilisers have led to a reduction in the amount of motion experienced

by passengers on the ship. 6

A5. Blood pressure levels were measured in a sample of 19 diabetic men, aged 50

to 59 years. The sample mean systolic blood pressure was 146.6 mmHg and

the sample standard deviation 17.9 mmHg.

(a) Stating two assumptions required, calculate a 95% confidence interval

for the mean systolic blood pressure in the population of diabetic men

aged 50 to 59 years. 5

(b) Given that the mean systolic blood pressure in the population of men

aged 50 to 59 years in good health is 137.4 mmHg, state what can be

deduced from your answer in (a). 2

A6. A spinning frame in a textile factory is used to spin monofilament nylon yarn

and has a large number of spinnerets. Yarn breakages at the spinnerets

require spinning to be stopped in order to enable the operator to mend the

breakages. The number of stoppages per hour, X, may be modelled by the

Poisson distribution with mean 4.

(a) Obtain the probability that the number of stoppages in an hour is more

than two standard deviations above the mean. 3

(b) Obtain the smallest integer k such that P(X > k) < 0.001. 2

[Turn over

Marks

A7. Agricultural scientists carried out an investigation of milk yield (y) and

energy intake (x) for a breed of cow. A random sample of 40 animals was

used. An annotated scatter plot of the data with a fitted linear model is

shown below.

Scatter Plot

10 000

y = 4103 + 28.19x

9000

Yield y

8000

7000

6000

5000

50 75 100 125 150 175 200

Energy x

SSR = 11 581 321, test the null hypothesis that the slope parameter in

the linear model is zero, stating any assumptions required. 5

(b) Given that, for one of the cows, the observed values x and y were 144

and 8640 respectively, calculate the corresponding fitted value and

residual. 2

(c) The plot of residuals against fitted values is shown below.

2000

1500

Residual

1000

500

0

500

1000

Fitted Value

State the feature of this plot that suggested to the scientists that a

quadratic model would be worth investigating. 1

(d) A satisfactory residual plot was obtained for the quadratic model:

y = 2305 + 64.80x 0.1644x2.

Calculate the optimum energy intake, in terms of maximizing milk

yield, for the breed of cow. 2

Comment on your answer with reference to the scatter plot above. 1

[X202/701] Page four

Marks

A8. Following a banquet attended by a large number of people, cases of

food poisoning were reported and attributed by some guests to the seafood

on the menu. A health agency contacted and interviewed a random sample

of guests. The contingency table below was constructed from their

responses.

Ate seafood 21 9

Did not eat seafood 38 4

(a) State the null and alternative hypotheses for a chi-squared test for

association in the contingency table. 1

(b) Write down estimates of the probability that a guest at the banquet ate

seafood and of the probability that a guest was ill with food poisoning. 2

(c) Explain how these estimates are used to calculate the expected

frequency of guests in the sample who ate seafood and took ill with

food poisoning. 2

(d) Complete the test. 5

A9. The random variable X has the continuous uniform (0, 1) distribution so

that E(X) = 21 and V(X) = 121 . The random variable Y = (b a)X + a has the

continuous uniform (a, b) distribution.

1 1

(a) Show that the mean and variance of Y are 2 (a + b) and 12 (b a)2. 3

(b) An assembly operation for DVD players has three phases: Set-up;

Build; and Test. The durations of the three phases are independent

and have the continuous uniform (9,15), (84,96) and (15,21)

distributions.

Show that the total time T to assemble a DVD player has mean

120 minutes and standard deviation 4.24 minutes. 5

(c) Assuming that T is normally distributed, estimate the value of k such

that P(T k) = 0.9. 3

[END OF SECTION A]

Section B (Mathematics for Applied Mathematics)

Marks

Answer all the questions.

/6

B1. Find the exact value of 0 x sin 3x dx. 5

( )

4

2

Use the binomial theorem to expand x

3

B2. and simplify your answer. 4

x

t t 1

B3. A curve is defined parametrically by x = 2 , y= 2 .

t +1 t +1

dy

Obtain as a function of t. 5

dx

B4. For the matrix A = ( 2

2 3

the matrix is singular.

)

, find the values of such that

3

dy

x y = x2e x

dx

for which y = 2 when x = 1. 5

8

B6. Express in partial fractions. 4

x(x + 2)(x + 4)

Calculate the area under the curve

8

y=

x + 6x2 + 8x

3

a

between x = 1 and x = 2. Express your answer in the form ln , where a and b

b

are positive integers. 5

[END OF SECTION B]

[END OF QUESTION PAPER]

[X202/701] Page six

[BLANK PAGE]

[BLANK PAGE]

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