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5in H˙estimators˙review2

Chapter 1

**Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with
**

Long-Memory

**Alexandra Chronopoulou∗ and Frederi G. Viens∗
**

Department of Statistics, Purdue University

150 N. University St. West Lafayette

IN 47907-2067, USA.

achronop@purdue.edu, viens@purdue.edu

**The statistical estimation of the Hurst index is one of the fundamental problems
**

in the literature of long-range dependent and self-similar processes. In this article,

the Hurst index estimation problem is addressed for a special class of self-similar

processes that exhibit long-memory, the Hermite processes. These processes gen-

eralize the fractional Brownian motion, in the sense that they share its covariance

function, but are non-Gaussian. Existing estimators such as the R/S statistic,

the variogram, the maximum likelihood and the wavelet-based estimators are re-

viewed and compared with a class of consistent estimators which are constructed

based on the discrete variations of the process. Convergence theorems (asymp-

totic distributions) of the latter are derived using multiple Wiener-Itô integrals

and Malliavin calculus techniques. Based on these results, it is shown that the

latter are asymptotically more efficient than the former.

**Keywords : self-similar process, parameter estimation, long memory, Hurst pa-
**

rameter, multiple stochastic integral, Malliavin calculus, Hermite process, fractional

Brownian motion, non-central limit theorem, quadratic variation.

2000 AMS Classification Numbers: Primary 62F12; Secondary 60G18, 60H07,

62M09.

1.1. Introduction

1.1.1. Motivation

A fundamental assumption in many statistical and stochastic models is that of in-

dependent observations. Moreover, many models that do not make this assumption

have the convenient Markov property, according to which the future of the system

is not affected by its previous states but only by the current one.

The phenomenon of long memory has been noted in nature long before the con-

struction of suitable stochastic models: in fields as diverse as hydrology, economics,

∗ Both authors’ research partially supported by NSF grant 0606615.

1

August 19, 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume - 9.75in x 6.5in H˙estimators˙review2

2 A. Chronopoulou, F.G. Viens

**chemistry, mathematics, physics, geosciences, and environmental sciences, it is not
**

uncommon for observations made far apart in time or space to be non-trivially

correlated.

Since ancient times the Nile River has been known for its long periods of dryness

followed by long periods of floods. The hydrologist Hurst ([13]) was the first one

to describe these characteristics when he was trying to solve the problem of flow

regularization of the Nile River. The mathematical study of long-memory processes

was initiated by the work of Mandelbrot [16] on self-similar and other stationary

stochastic processes that exhibit long-range dependence. He built the foundations

for the study of these processes and he was the first one to mathematically define the

fractional Brownian motion, the prototype of self-similar and long-range dependent

processes. Later, several mathematical and statistical issues were addressed in the

literature, such as derivation of central (and non-central) limit theorems ([5], [6],

[10], [17], [27]), parameter estimation techniques ([1], [7], [8], [27]) and simulation

methods ([11]).

The problem of the statistical estimation of the self-similarity and/or long-

memory parameter H is of great importance. This parameter determines the math-

ematical properties of the model and consequently describes the behavior of the

underlying physical system. Hurst ([13]) introduced the celebrated rescaled ad-

justed range or R/S statistic and suggested a graphical methodology in order to

estimate H. What he discovered was that for data coming from the Nile River the

R/S statistic behaves like a constant times k H , where k is a time interval. This

was called later by Mandelbrot the Hurst effect and was modeled by a fractional

Gaussian noise (fGn).

One can find several techniques related to the Hurst index estimation problem

in the literature. There are a lot of graphical methods including the R/S statistic,

the correlogram and partial correlations plot, the variance plot and the variogram,

which are widely used in geosciences and hydrology. Due to their graphical nature

they are not so accurate and thus there is a need for more rigorous and sophisticated

methodologies, such as the maximum likelihood. Fox and Taqqu ([12]) introduced

the Whittle approximate maximum likelihood method in the Gaussian case which

was later generalized for certain non-Gaussian processes. However, these approaches

were lacking computational efficiency which lead to the rise of wavelet-based esti-

mators and discrete variation techniques.

1.1.2. Mathematical Background

Let us first recall some basic definitions that will be useful in our analysis.

**Definition 1.1. A stochastic process {Xn ; n ∈ N} is said to be stationary if the
**

vectors (Xn1 , . . . , Xnd ) and (Xn1 +m , . . . , Xnd +m ) have the same distribution for all

integers d, m ≥ 1 and n1 , . . . , nd ≥ 0. For Gaussian processes this is equivalent to

requiring that Cov(Xm , Xm+n ) := γ(n) does not depend on m. These two notions

Yearly minimum water levels of the Nile√River at the Roda Gauge (622-1281 A. Let {Xn .August 19. 1. The . A process that exhibits long-memory has an autocorrelation function that decays very slowly.1. n→∞ n2H−2 Typical long memory models satisfy the stronger condition limn→∞ ρ(n)/n2H−2 > 0.05. long memory can be defined in the following way: P Definition 1. Since our observations are above these levels.2.75in x 6. A sufficient condition for this is the existence of H ∈ (1/2. In geometry. In this context.D. The function ρ(n) = γ(n)/γ(0) is the called autocorrelation function. If n ρ (n) = +∞ then Xn is said to exhibit long memory or long-range dependence. it means that they are significantly correlated with significance level 0. are often called strict stationarity and second-order stationarity. This is exactly the behavior that was observed by Hurst for the first time. In particular. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . 1) such that ρ(n) lim inf > 0. as can been seen in Figure 1.1. n ∈ N} be a stationary process. he discovered that the yearly minimum water level of the Nile river had the long-memory property.).5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 3 Fig. respectively. The dotted horizontal lines represent the levels ±2/ 600.9. The function γ(n) is called the autocovariance function. Another property that was observed in the data collected from the Nile river is the so-called self-similarity property. in which case H can be called the long memory parameter of X. a self-similar shape is one composed of a basic pattern which is repeated at multiple (or infinite) scale.

In . The rigorous definition of the self-similarity property is as follows: Definition 1.G.5in H˙estimators˙review2 4 A. The Hermite process for q = 1 is a standard fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H. we concentrate on a special class of long-memory processes which are also self-similar and for which the self-similarity and long-memory parameters coincide.9. the only Gaussian process in the Hermite class.2. This is a family of processes parametrized by the order q and the self-similarity parameter H. limn→∞ ρ (n) 6 /n2H−2 = H(2H − 1)). in distribution. we can observe the self-similar property of a simulated path of the fractional Brownian motion with parameter H = 0. Cov(Xt . statistical interpretation of self-similarity is that the paths of the process will look the same. A Hermite process with q = 2 known as the Rosenblatt process. Self-similarity property for the fractional Brownian motion with H = 0. we have the identity in distribution −H D c Xc t : t ≥ 0 ∼ {Xt : t ≥ 0} . They all share the same covari- ance function 1 2H t + s2H − |t − s|2H . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . A process {Xt . The first graph shows the path from time 0 to 10. t ≥ 0} is called self-similar with self-similarity parameter H. In Figure 1. they are H-self-similar and they exhibit long-range dependence as defined in Definition 1.1) 2 From the structure of the covariance function we observe that the Hermite processes have stationary increments. Viens Fig. irrespective of the distance from which we look at then. 1.August 19.2 (in fact.75.75. usually denoted by B H .2.3. F. The second and third graph illustrate the normalized sample path for 0 < t < 5 and 0 < t < 1 respectively. if for all c > 0. In this paper. Xs ) = (1. the so-called Hermite processes.75in x 6. Chronopoulou.

75in x 6. In Section 3 we describe the main ingredients and the main definitions that we need for our analysis. we will call H either long-memory parameter or self-similarity parameter or Hurst parameter.August 19. we briefly describe the wavelet-based estimator. the correlogram and the variogram. In the last section.9. . Of course.1. These are compelling reasons why one may choose to work with the latter. [27] and [28]. Then. The description will be done in the case of the fractional Brownian mo- tion (fBm) BtH . In a continuous time model. N }. 1. 1.2. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . in the hydrological problem . which summarizes the series of papers [6]. 1] . . However. N − 1. Finally.5. The main technical difference between a FARIMA and a Hermite process is that the first one is a discrete-time process and the second one a continuous-time process. also known as fractional Gaussian N N N noise. Another class of processes used to model long-memory phenomena are the frac- tional ARIMA (Auto Regressive. we concentrate on a more traditional approach: the maximum likelihood estimation. t ∈ [0. Heuristic Estimators R/S Estimator : The most famous among these estimators is the so-called R/S estimator that was first proposed by Hurst in 1951. In Section 4.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 5 the sequel.e. . and provide an original set of practical recommendations based on theoretical results and on simulations. [13]. we construct a class of estimators based on the discrete variations of the process and describe their asymptotic properties. We denote by XtH . including a sketch of the proof of the main theoretical result. Most Popular Hurst parameter Estimators In this section we discuss the main estimators for the Hurst parameter in the litera- ture. 1. . We start with the description of three heuristic estimators: the R/S estimator. The structure of the paper is as follows: in Section 2. Moving Average) or FARIMA pro- cesses. in practice. Integrated. The mathematical definition of these processes is given in Definition 1. the observation sampling frequency does not modify the model. [7]. In this article we study the Hurst parameter estimation problem for the Hermite processes. We assume that it is observed in discrete times {0. t ∈ [0. A discrete-time model depends heavily on the sampling frequency: daily observations will be described by a different FARIMA model than weekly observations. Theorem 1. most phenomena in nature evolve continuously in time and the corresponding ob- servations arise as samplings of continuous time processes.4. we compare the variations-based estimators with the existing ones in the literature. 1] the corresponding increment process of the fBm (i. we provide a survey of the most widely used estimators in the literature. we can only have discrete observations.2. X Hi = B Hi − B Hi ) .

i = 1.e log Q) with respect to log n for several values of n. N ) Q := Q(ti . This is a graphical approach and it is really in the hands of the statistician to determine the part of the data that is “nicely scattered along the straight line”. Furthermore. Viens regarding the storage of water coming from the Nile river. n) := max {Y (ti . . Correlogram : Recall ρ(N ) the autocorrelation function of the process as in Definition 1. The rescaled adjusted range is computed for various values of N by R(ti . n j=0 n j=0 we define R(ti . . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . It is interesting to note that the numerator R(ti . . that seem to be nicely scattered along a straight line. n) :=t XH 2 − XH . Y (ti . the estimator is bi- ased and has a large standard error. K. then the .1. . 1). . We start by dividing N our data in K non-intersecting blocks. where the distribution of the R/S statistic is far from normal.9. Y (ti . . . n)} and v 2 u u n−1 n−1 u1 X 1 X S(ti . . each one of which contains M = K elements. The problem is more severe in small samples. n) and S(ti . F. n) at times ti = M (i − 1). N ) = S(ti . n j=0 ti +j n j=0 ti +j Remark 1. More details on the limitations of this approach in the case of fBm can be found in [2]. .75in x 6. Chronopoulou.5in H˙estimators˙review2 6 A. As a rule of thumb we draw two horizontal lines at ±2/ N . .1. n) to be R(ti . . . . Then. k) := XtHi +j − k XtHi +j . The slope of this line is the estimator of H.05. n) can be computed only when ti + n ≤ N . k = 1. All observations outside the lines are considered to be significantly correlated with significance level 0.August 19. For k−1 n−1 X 1 X Y (ti . . In order to compute a value for H we plot the logarithm of R/S (i. In the Correlogram approach. we fit a least-squares line y = a + b log n to a central part of the data. it is sufficient to plot the sample autocorre- lation function γ̂(N ) ρ̂(N ) = γ̂(0) √ against N . 1). . .G. n)} − min {Y (ti . If the process exhibits long-memory.

due to their non-parametric nature. The main disadvantage of this technique is its graphical nature which can- not guarantee accurate results.August 19. For example. they can be applied to any long-memory process. In conclusion. How- ever. If the asymptotic decay is precisely hyperbolic. its use is limited . a correlogram or a variogram could show evidence of long-memory. when for exam- ple H = 0.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 7 plot should have a very slow decay. we should analyze the correlogram at high lags. it suffices to plot V (N ) against N . a good approach would be to use these methods as a first heuristic analysis to detect the possible presence of long-memory and then use a more rigorous technique. 2 Therefore.2.75in x 6. then the memory is short. then for large lags the points should be scattered around a straight line with negative slope equal to 2H − 2 and the data will have long-memory. we can see that the interpretation of the variogram is similar to that of the correlogram. Since long-memory is an asymptotic notion.9. In addition. However. since if the process is stationary (which is true for the increments of fractional Brownian motion and all other Hermite processes). In the class of Hermite processes. On the other hand when the plot diverges to −∞ with at least exponential rate. indicating existence of long-memory in cases where none exists.6 it is quite hard to distinguish it from short-memory. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . 1. Moreover. none of these graphical methods are accurate. To avoid this issue. The main advantage of these approaches is their simplicity. then the variogram is asymptotically finite and V (N ) = V (∞)(1 − ρ(N )). Variogram : The variogram for the lag N is defined as 1 h 2 i V (N ) := E BtH − Bt−NH .2. in order to estimate the long-memory parameter. they can frequently be misleading. a more suitable plot will be this of log ρ̂(N ) against log N . when a process has short-memory together with a trend that decays to zero very fast. Maximum Likelihood Estimation The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (mle) is the most common technique of pa- rameter estimation in Statistics. In order to determine whether the data exhibit short or long memory this method has the same problems as the correlogram. such as those described in the remainder of this section. However.

. In order to avoid this computational burden. The asymptotic behavior of Ĥmle is described in the following theorem. where 2π 2π −π ∞ 1 X f1 (λ. the log-likelihood function has the following expression: N 1 1 −1 0 log f (x. we need to maximize the log-likelihood equation with respect to H. 1 Rπ ∂ 2 Theorem 1. . in almost every step we have to maximize a quantity that involves the computation of the inverse of Σ(H). 1) in distribution. H) = − log 2π − log [det (ΣN (H))] − X H (ΣN (H)) X H . XNH the vector of the fractional Gaussian noise 0 (increments of fBm) and by X H the transposed (column) vector.1. . A detailed derivation can be found in [3] and [9]. since for the other processes we do not have an expression for their dis- tribution function. In order to obtain the mle in practice. as N → ∞. as N → ∞ in probability.j=1.G.. . which is not an easy task.. In order to introduce Whittle’s approximation we first define the density on the spectral domain. Define the quantity D(H) = 2π −π ∂H log f (x. √ p (ii) N 2 D(H) Ĥmle − H → N (0. as in Defi- nition 1.75in x 6. we have σij := Cov XiH .1. the mle for H. 2 2 2 In order to compute Ĥmle .9. Viens to fBm. Chronopoulou. Let Xt be a process with autocovariance function γ(h).N . F.. Denote by X H = X0H .5in H˙estimators˙review2 8 A. Then under certain regularity conditions (that can be found in [9]) the maximum likelihood estimator is weakly consistent and asymptotically normal: (i) Ĥmle → H . Definition 1. this is a Gaussian vector with covariance matrix ΣN (H) = [σij (H)]i. The mle estimation is done in the spectral domain using the spectral density of fBm as follows.. 2π h=−∞ In the fBm case the spectral density can be written as Z π 1 1 f (λ.August 19. 2 Then. H) = exp − log f1 dλ . we approximate the likelihood function with the so-called Whittle approximate likelihood which can be proved to converge to the true likelihood. H) = Γ(2H + 1) sin(πH)(1 − cos λ) |2πj + λ|−2H−1 π j=−∞ . [29].4. X1H . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . The spectral density function is defined as the inverse Fourier transform of γ(h) ∞ 1 X −iλh f (λ) := e γ(h). XjH = i2H + j 2H − |i − j|2H . H) dx.

R Z tQ ψ(t)dt 6= 0. (ii) The matrix Σ−1 N (H) itself is asymptotically equivalent to the matrix A(H) = [α(j − `)]j` .9. 1]. . . Let ψ : R → R be a continuous function with support in [0. . [11] and [14]. . This is also called the mother wavelet.2) [2 D(H)] It can also be shown that the Whittle approximate mle remains weakly consistent. Q − 1. H) Combining the approximations above. For the proofs and the detailed exposition of the method the reader can refer to [1]. b) we define the approximate wavelet coefficient of d(α. 2. R For a “scale” α ∈ N∗ the corresponding wavelet coefficient is given by Z ∞ 1 t d(α. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . 1. i) = √ ψ − i ZtH dt. for p = 0. α −∞ α for i = 1. H))∗ = − log 2π − log f (λ. 2 2 2π −π 2 The details in the Whittle mle estimation procedure can be found in [3].3. 1.75in x 6. For the Whittle mle we have the following convergence in distribution result as N → ∞ s N D −1 ĤW mle − H → N (0.2. H)dλ. H)dλ − X A(H)X . b) = √ Zk ψ −b . are beyond the scope of this article. Q ≥ 1 is the number of vanishing moments where Z tp ψ(t)dt = 0. The details of the procedure for the con- structing this estimator. . b) as the following Riemann approximation N 1 X H k e(α. Now. Nα with Nα = N α − 1. for (α. and the underlying wavelets theory.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 9 The Whittle method approximates each of the terms in the log-likelihood function as follows: 1 Rπ (i) limN →∞ log det(ΣN (H)) = 2π −π log f (λ. This section provides a brief exposition.August 19. Wavelet Estimator Much attention has been devoted to the wavelet decomposition of both fBm and the Rosenblatt process. we now need to minimize the quantity Z π N n 1 1 0 (log f (λ. 1) (1. where Z π −i(j−`)λ 1 e α(j − `) = 2 dλ (2π) −π f (λ. α α k=1 . an estimator for the Hurst parameter based on wavelets has been suggested. . . where N is the sample size. . Following this trend.

Z` Z`−1 e2 (αi (N ). `. .2.August 19. Theorem 1. Tudor in [1]. the suggested estimator can be computed by performing a log-log regression of Nαi (N ) 1 X e2 (αi (N ). `.0 Z` . ψ)). the convergence rate of the estimator depends on the choice of α(N ).75in x 6. A very important advantage of Ĥwave over the mle for example is that it can be computed in an efficient and fast way.G. Chronopoulou. if Q ≥ 2. then there exists γ 2 (H. Thus. ` and ψ. assume N α(N )−2 → 0 as N → ∞ and m ≥ 2. `. (1. F.5) α(N ) where the distribution law L depends on H.6) α(N ) where the distribution law L depends on H.9. j) − . . for ` ∈ N r {1}. Z` (i. as N → ∞. j) Nαi (N ) j=1 1≤i≤` against (i αi (N ))1≤i≤` . (1. Let α(N ) as above. 2−2H (3) Let Z H is be Rosenblatt process. assume N α(N )− 4−4H → 0 as N α(N )− 3−2H → 0. ψ) > 0 such that s N D Ĥwave − H → N (0.A. Bardet and C.3) 2 2 j=1 2 1≤i≤` where Z` (i. (1) Let Z H be a fBm.5in H˙estimators˙review2 10 A. Following the analysis by J. if Q = 1 and 3/4 < H < 1. then 2−2H N D Ĥwave − H → L. is the following 0 −1 Nαi (N ) 1 0 1 X 1 Ĥwave := . On the other hand.4) α(N ) 5−4H 3−2H+m (2) Let Z H be a fBm. where α(N ) is a sequence of integer numbers such that N α(N )−1 → ∞ and α(N ) → ∞ as N → ∞ and αi (N ) = iα(N ). . 1]. or if Q = 1 and 0 < H < 3/4. . 2) = log i for all i = 1. We have the following convergences in distribution. as N → ∞ (1. then 1−H N D Ĥwave − H → L. . Assume also that ψ ∈ C m with m ≥ 1 and ψ is supported on [0.- M. γ 2 (H. ` and ψ. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . in vectors notation. 1) = 1. Viens where Z H can be either fBm or Rosenblatt process. The limiting distributions L in the theorem above are not explicitly known: they come from a non-trivial non-linear transformation of quantities which are asymp- totically normal or Rosenblatt-distributed. assume N α(N )− 3−2H → 0 as N α(N )−(1+m) → 0. as N → ∞ (1. the obtained estimator.

. Multiplication in the Wiener Chaos & Hermite Processes 1.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 11 1.8) 0 where I1 is the Wiener-Itô integral with respect to W .. 1]n )..9) 0 0 0 The application In is extended to non-symmetric functions f via In (f ) = In f˜ where f˜ denotes the symmetrization of f defined by f˜(x1 .s] . it is interesting to observe that this construction coincides with the iterated Itô stochastic integral Z 1 Z tn Z t2 In (f ) = n! . .t] . One can construct the multiple integral starting from simple functions of the form f := P i1 ..9.August 19.1. 1[0.. t) . xN ) = 1 P n! σ∈Sn f (xσ(1) . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . . f (t1 . 1) and covariance function 1 2H t + s2H − |t − s|2H . 1]).3.. t ∈ [0. Here. s) for 0 ≤ s ≤ t such that Z 1 B H (t) = K H (t. 1[0. . where f ∈ L2 ([0..t] = RH (t. ... . s) := (1. b]) = Wb − Wa ..in 1Ai1 ×. Nualart’s textbook (Chapter 5.. .. . .. Using a density argument the integral can be extended to all symmetric functions in L2 ([0. F. (1. i1 . tn )dWt1 . let In (f ) be the multiple Wiener-Itô integral.3.b] = W ([a.. . When H = 12 . xσ(n) ). Now. . W (Ain ). s)dWs = I1 K H (·.. Otherwise.. dWtn . Let Bt .. The reader can refer to Chapter 1 [19] for its detailed construction. We denote by {W t :Ht ∈[ 0.in where W 1[a..in W (Ai1 ) . 1]n ) is a symmetric function. . then B 2 is the standard Brownian motion on L2 ([0. . H is a Hilbert space which contains func- tions on [0.×Ain where the coefficient ci1 .in is zero if two indices are equal and the sets Aij are disjoint intervals by X In (f ) := ci1 .. [19]) can be consulted for full details.. .7) 2 1 We denote by H its canonical Hilbert space. 1] under the inner product that extends the rule 1[0. We will use the representation of the fractional Brownian motion B H with re- spect to the standard Brownian motion W : there exists a Wiener process W and a deterministic kernel K H (t. P ).s] . . (1. .. Basic tools on multiple Wiener-Itô integrals In this section we describe the basic framework that we need in order to describe and prove the asymptotic properties of the estimator based on the discrete variations of the process.in ci1 . 1[0. 1]} a classical Wiener process on a standard Wiener space (Ω. . 1] be a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H ∈ (0.75in x 6. .

n In is an isometry between the Hilbert space H equipped with the scaled norm √1 ||·||H⊗n . The space of all integrals of order n. 1]n ) . is called n! . In (f ) : f ∈ L2 ([0.

.7). 1). 1]. u` )du1 . . . then it holds that m∧n X ` In (f )Im (g) = `!Cm Cn` Im+n−2` (f ⊗` g). tm−` ) Z = f (s1 . Since it will be used for random variables in a finite chaos.11) `=0 where the contraction f ⊗` g belongs to L2 ([0.1] = 0 |Dt In (f )|2 dt converges to the constant n in L2 (Ω) as N → ∞.75in x 6. Nualart and S.1]n ) if m = n. 1]n ) and g ∈ L2 ([0. it is sufficient to know that if f ∈ L2 ([0. . .August 19. t1 . There also exists a multidimensional version of this theorem due to G. [0. They are well- suited to modeling various phenomena that exhibit long-memory and have the self- (q. ∈ [0. Ortiz-Latorre in [21] proved the following characterization of convergence in distribution for any sequence of multiple integrals to the standard normal law.5in H˙estimators˙review2 12 A. We will denote its symmetrization by (f ⊗ ˜ ` g). (1.1. Let FN = In (fN ) be a sequence of square integrable random variables in the nth Wiener chaos such that limN →∞ E FN2 = 1. and takes values in L2 (Ω × [0. .9. .1]` Note that the contraction (f ⊗` g) is not necessarily symmetric. . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . sn−` . . giL2 ([0. . Then the following are equivalent: (i) The sequence (FNR )N ≥0 converges to the normal law N (0. . 1. . 1]).3. 1]m+n−2` ) for ` = 0. . . (1. . Main Definitions The Hermite processes are a family of processes parametrized by the order and the self-similarity parameter with covariance function given by (1. . . DIn (f ) exists and it is given by Dt In (f ) = n In−1 (f (·.1] the . . t)). The next multiplication formula will plays a crucial technical role: if f ∈ L2 ([0. . We denote by (Zt )t∈[0. sn−` . du` . Chronopoulou. but which are not Gaussian. . . u1 . u1 . . . 1 (ii) kDFN k2L2 [0. u` )g(t1 .H) similarity property. 1]m ) are symmetric functions. 1.10) =0 if m 6= n. . Proposition 1. D. Viens nth Wiener chaos. . We now introduce the Malliavin derivative for random variables in a finite chaos. The Wiener chaoses form orthogonal sets in L2 (Ω): E (In (f )Im (g)) = n!hf. . Tudor in [22]. . F. . . tm−` . The derivative operator D is defined on a subset of L2 (Ω). m ∧ n and is given by (f ⊗` g)(s1 .2. Peccati and C.G. 1]n ) is a symmetric function. . Let n be a fixed integer.

13) q Therefore.1] . The Hermite process can be defined in two ways: as a multiple integral with respect to the standard Wiener process (Wt )t∈[0. y1 ) . (q. which is the one described in (1... . The basic properties of the Hermite process are listed below: • the Hermite process Z (q.5. dWyq ∂1 K (u.12) 0 where K H is the usual kernel of the fractional Brownian motion. The Hermite process (Zt )t∈[0.H) Definition 1.8). yq )du . . ·)) . y1 . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . 0 0 where L(t. . ∂1 K (u.9.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 13 Hermite process of order q with self-similarity parameter H ∈ (1/2. .75in x 6. d(H) a constant depending on H and H −1 H0 = 1 + ⇐⇒ (2H 0 − 2)q = 2H − 2.August 19.H) is H-selfsimilar and it has stationary increments. yq ) = ∂1 K H (u.∨yq (1.. .H) H0 H0 Zt = d(H) . 0 0 y1 ∨. yq )du. • the mean square of its increment is given by . ∂1 K H (u. or as a multiple integral with respect to a fractional Brownian motion with suitable Hurst parameter. 1) for t ∈ [0.1] of order q ≥ 1 and with self- similarity parameter H ∈ ( 21 . (1. We adopt the first approach throughout the paper. y1 ) . 1) (here q ≥ 1 is an integer). . 1] is given by ! Z t Z t Z t (q. .H) Zt = Iq (L(t. .e. the Hermite process of order q is defined as a q th order Wiener-Itô integral of a non-random kernel.. (q. dWy1 . . . i.

.

2 .

H) E . (q.

H) .Zt − Zs(q.

. = |t − s|2H .

2. the autocorrelation function ρ (n) of its increments of length 1 is asymptotically equal to H(2H − 1)n2H−2 . as a consequence. In particular for Hermite processes. • Z (q. the self-similarity and long-memory parameter coincide.H) has Hölder-continuous paths of any order δ < H. Z (q. In the sequel.H) exhibits long-range dependence in the sense of Definition 1. we will also use the filtered process to construct an estimator for H. and the property is well-known for fBm with H > 1/2. This property is identical to that of fBm since the processes share the same covariance structure. almost surely. . it follows from the Kolmogorov continuity criterion that. In fact.

H) i−2 Z (α) = Z − 2Z +Z . . . Viens Definition 1. N 1. 1}.14) q=0 N Some examples are the following: (1) For α = {1.5in H˙estimators˙review2 14 A.H) (α) := ∇j Z (q. . N1 . NN−1 . Hurst parameter Estimator based on Discrete Variations The estimator based on the discrete variations of the process is described by Coeur- jolly in [8] for fractional Brownian motion.6.75in x 6.H) i−1 (q. −1} (q.H) i−q Z(α) := αq Z . (2) For α = {1. . according to the following scheme: ` X (q. We assume that we observe the process in discrete times {0. we define ∇j = ∇∇j−1 and we may write the jth-order finite-difference-filtered process as follows i Z (q. Using previous results by Breuer and Major. for i = `.H) (α) is the convolution of the process with the filter. he was able to prove consistency and derive the asymptotic distribution for the suggested estimator in the case of filter of order 1 for H < 3/4 and for all H in the case of a longer filter. N − 1 (1. α1 . ∇Z (q.H) i−1 Z (α) = Z −Z . N N This is a filter of length 1 and order 1. . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume .4. N N N This is a filter of length 2 and order 2. . The filtered process Z (q. . . α` } such that ` X αq q r = 0.August 19. (3) More generally. A filter α of length ` ∈ N and order p ∈ N \ 0 is an (` + 1)- dimensional vector α = {α0 . . Chronopoulou. .H) ((i − 1) /N ). longer filters produced by finite-differencing are such that the coefficients of the filter α are the binomial coefficients with alternating signs. .H) (i/N ) = Z (q.H) (q.H) i (q. Borrowing the notation ∇ from time series analysis. [5]. r ∈ Z q=0 ` X αq q p 6= 0 q=0 with the convention 00 = 1. for 0 ≤ r ≤ p − 1. 1} (q. . −2.H) . F.H) (q.9.G.H) (i/N ) − Z (q. .H) i (q.

The estimation procedure is the same irrespective of the specific order of the Hermite process. Thus. in order to construct the estimator. +1}. thus. i.6)) and the corresponding filtered process Z(α) as in (1. E [SN (α)] by SN (α). In order to deter- mine the corresponding asymptotic behavior we use properties of the Wiener-Itô integrals as well as Malliavin calculus techniques. In this case. 1] as long . thus in the sequel we denote the process by Z := Z (q. it is not possible to compute an analytical expression for the estimator. However. which computes as E [SN ] = − N 2 q. (1. suggesting the following estimator for H: log SN (α) ĤN = − .16) 2 log N Filter of order p : In this case we use the filtered process in order to construct the estimator for H.14): First we start by computing the quadratic variation of the filtered process N ` !2 1 X X i−q SN (α) = αq Z .4. 1.18) 2 q. we may attempt to estimate SN (α)’s ex- pectation by its actual value.9. We present first the estimation procedure for a filter of order 1. given good concentration properties for SN (α). using the increments of the process.17) N q=0 N i=` Similarly as before. Estimator Construction Filter of order 1 : α = {−1. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . The quadratic variation of Z is N 2 1 X i i−1 SN (α) = Z −Z .H) . Let α be a filter (as defined in (1. we estimate SN by its −2H P` expectation. we can show that there exists a unique solution for H ∈ [ 21 .r=0 αq αr |q − r| .r=0 αq αr |q − r| 2H .75in x 6. where g(x) = − N 2 2x q. i. (1.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 15 Herein we see how the results by Coeurjolly are generalized: we construct con- sistent estimators for the self-similarity parameter of a Hermite process of order q based on the discrete observations of the underlying process.e.August 19.1.r=0 −2x P` We write that ĤN = g −1 (SN ). we can obtain ĤN by solving the following non-linear equation with respect to H ` N −2H X SN = − αq αr |q − r|2H .e.15) N i=1 N N We know that the expectation of SN (α) is E [SN (α)] = N −2H . (1. (1.

we let N tend to infinity which means that the horizon from which we sample goes to infinity. and in our case.G. N →∞ In fact.r=0 N > max exp P` . where the limit notation L2 (Ω) h i 2 Xn → X denotes convergence in the mean square limN →∞ E (XN − X) = 0. lim ĤN = H a.2. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . . Rosenblatt process (q = 2).1] This restriction is typically satisfied. F.4. and Hermite processes of higher order q > 2. If we had convergence in distribution this would not be an issue. (a) Assume that we use the filter of order 1. it should depend on the distribution of the underlying process.e. i.s. If we look at the above theorem more carefully. D and → continues to denote convergence in distribution.August 19. since we work with relatively large sample sizes.2. Chronopoulou. Let H ∈ ( 12 . Obviously. we do have a fixed horizon [0. Theorem 1. In the case of the mle. Theorem 1. Asymptotic Properties of ĤN The first question is whether the suggested estimator is consistent. we have more precisely that limN →∞ H − ĤN log N = 0 a. Assume we observe the Hermite process Z of order q with Hurst parameter H. Then ĤN is strongly consistent. 1). We summarize the results in the following theorem. We consider the following three cases separately: fBm (Hermite process of order q = 1).r=0 αq αr |q − r| 1 H∈[ 2 .9. but in terms of almost sure or convergence in probability it is not exactly equivalent. 1) and B H be a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H. Here.4. This is indeed true: if sampled sufficiently often (i.3. we observe that this is a slightly different notion of consistency than the usual one. the estimator converges to the true value of H almost surely. for example.5in H˙estimators˙review2 16 A. Viens as ( P` ) αq αr log |q − r| |q − r|2H q.75in x 6. since we could rescale the process appropriately by taking advantage of the self-similarity property. (1) Let H ∈ (0. The next step is to determine the asymptotic distribution of ĤN .e. 2H q. on q and H. 1] and by letting N → ∞ we sample infinitely often. for any order of the filter.s. Remark 1. as N → ∞). 1.

H := 2H4H−3 (2H−1) .H := 2 + k=1 2k 2H − (k − 1)2H − (k + 1)2H . 1).H 2 where c2. Here ` is the length of the filter.20) c2.H N 1−H log N ĤN − H → Z (2.H) (1.22) c6.H where c6.23) 2c4.H := 16d(H)2 . (1. then as N → ∞ 2 L2 (Ω) N 1−H log N √ ĤN − H → Z (2. 1). If H = 4 . If H ∈ (0. (2) Suppose that H > 12 and the observed process Z 2.H := 16 . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume .19) c1. (1. (1. then L2 (Ω) −1/2 2c7. which is related to the order p.r=0 Pq with bq = r=0 αr .9. 1). .5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 17 i. (a) If α is a filter of order 1. (1. see Definition 1.H) . (1.75in x 6.H = × c(H)2 H (H + 1)2 ( ` )2 X h 0 0 0 i 2H 2H 2H bq br |1 + q − r| + |1 − q + r| − 2|q − r| q. 43 ). then as N → ∞ √ 2 D N log N √ ĤN − H → N (0. (b) If α is a filter of order p > 1. If H ∈ ( 43 .H 9 where c3. 3 iii.H = 12 i∈Z ρα 2 P H (i) .H where c4.H P∞ 2 where c1.24) where 64 2H − 1 c7.H) . (b) Now. ii.21) c3. let α be of any order p ≥ 2.6 and examples following.August 19. 1).H is a Rosenblatt process with Hurst parameter H. then as N → ∞ p 2 D N log N √ ĤN − H → N (0. then 1 L2 (Ω) N 1−H log N ĤN − H → Z (2. Then. √ 1 D N log N ĤN − H → N (0.

(3) Even in the Rosenblatt case the effect of the filter is significant. Viens (3) Let H ∈ ( 12 . wherever it is necessary we focus on either fBm . This is important for the following reason: when we start the estimation procedure. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . the fact that we have asymptotic normality for all H allows us to construct confidence intervals and perform hypothesis testing and model validation. for H = 1 + H−1 q and a filter of order 1. but we will discuss it later in detail. one might wonder if the only reason to chose to work with the quadratic variation of the process. However. which means a random variable that has the same distribution as the Hermite process of order 2 and parameter K at t=1. q ≥ 2. (1) In most of the cases above. we do not know beforehand the value of H and such a threshold would create confusion in choosing the correct rate of convergence in order to scale ĤN appropriately. we no longer have the threshold of 3/4 and the suggested estimator is always asymptotically normal.5in H˙estimators˙review2 18 A.G. it is important to discuss the theorem’s results. Finally. better reasons to do so: Coeurjolly ([8]) proved that the use of higher order variations would lead to higher asymptotic constants and thus to larger standard errors in the case of the fBm.17)).H := (4H 0 −3)(4H 0 −2) . In the case of fBm. 1) and q ∈ N r {0}.3. Z (2. [27] and [28]. i. [Sketch of proof of Theorem 1. is for the simplicity of calculations. we observe that the order of convergence of the estimator depends on H. that the theorem’s convergences still hold when we replace H by ĤN in the rate of convergence.e. Before continuing with a sketch of proof of the theorem. He actually proved that the optimal variation respect to the standard error is the second (quadratic ). which is the parameter that we try to estimate. 0 2 L2 (Ω) 0 N 2−2H log N ĤN (α) − H → Z (2. Then. (1. We use a Hermite process of order q and a filter of order 1. instead of a higher order variation (powers higher than 2 in (1.15) and (1.2H −1) .25) c5. when we use a longer filter. (4) Finally. This is not obvious here.August 19.9.H) be a Hermite process of 0 order q and self-similarity parameter H. It turns out that there are other. Let Z (q. Remark 1. because it has already been proved. Chronopoulou. [7]. the longer the filter the smaller the standard error. What actually happens is that by filtering the process asymptotic standard error is reduced. This is not a problem. in [6]. (2) The effect of the use of a longer filter is very significant. In the notation above. F.K) denotes a standard Rosenblatt random variable.4] We present the key ideas for proving the consistency and asymptotic distribution results.H 0 0 4q!d(H)4 (H (2H −1))2q−2 where c5. Proof.75in x 6.

. . . . To determine the magnitude of this Wiener chaos decomposition VN . yq )du N ] y1 ∨.N ⊗k fi.. we study each of the terms appearing in the decomposition separately. using the multiplication property (1. . yq ) = 1 [0. i+1 (y1 ∨ . y1 ) .11) of multiple Wiener-Itô integrals we can derive a Wiener chaos decomposition of VN as follows: VN = T2q + c2q−2 T2q−2 + . y1 ∨. Using this relation we can see that log (1 + VN ) = 2 ĤN − H log N . It is convenient to work with the centered normalized quadratic variation defined as 2 (q. .9.∨yq Z i N 0 0 − 1[0. .H) Z i+1 −Zi = Iq (fi.H) 1 X Z i+1 N −1 −Zi N VN := −1 + N . (1. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume .N is the k th contraction of fi.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 19 or Rosenblatt in order to point out the corresponding differences.N (y1 .5). . ∂1 K H (u. If we compute the L2 . The ideas for the proof are very similar in the case of longer filters so the reader should refer to [28] for the details in this approach. SN = N −2H (1 + VN ) . we have that (q.27) 2 where c2q−2k := k! kq are the combinatorial constants from the product formula for 0 ≤ k ≤ q − 1. .26) N i=0 N −2H It is easy to observe that for SN defined in (1. ∨ yq )d(H) ∂1 K H (u. and −1 N ! X 2H−1 T2q−2k := N I2q−2k fi.H) (q. i=0 where fi.15).. . . Ni ] (y1 ∨ . .75in x 6.. y1 ) . + c4 T4 + c2 T2 (1..∨yq Now.N . .N ⊗k fi. therefore in order to prove consistency it suffices to show that VN converges to 0 as N → ∞ and the asymptotic distribution of ĤN depends on the asymptotic behavior of VN . yq )du. By the definition of the Hermite process (1. .N ) N N where we denoted Z i+1 N 0 0 fi. ∨ yq )d(H) ∂1 K H (u.H) (q.August 19.N with itself which is a function of 2q − 2k parameters. ∂1 K H (u.

F.75in x 6.N i=0 When q = 1 (the fBm case).H N c2 VN = 1. a direct method can be employed to determine the asymptotic distribution of the above quantity.N iL2 ([0.N ⊗k fi. in order to understand the asymptotic behavior of the renormalized se- quence VN it suffices to study the limit of the dominant term −1 N ! 2H−1 (2−2H 0 ) X I2 N N fi. q − 2 h 0 i 0 E N 2(2−2H ) T2q−2k 2 = O N −2(2−2H )2(q−k−1) .1. E T22 ∼ 4d(H) N 2(2H −2) (4H 0 −3)(4H 0 −2) • For k = 0.5in H˙estimators˙review2 20 A. . z)|u − v|(2H −2)(q−1) . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume .1]2q−2k ) N X −1 = N 4H−2 (2q − 2k)! ˜ k fi. y)∂1 K(v. we can use the Nualart–Ortiz-Latorre criterion (Proposition 1. (4H 0 − 3)(4H 0 − 2) it holds that h i (2−2H 0 )2 −2 2 lim E c−1 1. z) := N 2H−1 N (2−2H ) d(H)2 a(H 0 )q−1 N −1 Z Z X 0 1[0.j=0 Using properties of the multiple integrals we have the following results 4 (H 0 (2H 0 −1))2q−2 0 • For k = q − 1.1) in order to prove convergence to Normal distribution. Thus. Now.N ⊗ hfi.N 2 i=0 L ([0. we have N −1 !s 2 X E T2q−2k = N 4H−2 (2q − 2k)! 2 fi. and then conclude that ĤN is strongly consistent. Chronopoulou. Ni ] (y ∨ z) dvdu∂1 K(u. Therefore. with 4d(H)4 (H 0 (2H 0 − 1))2q−2 c1. in the general case for q > 1. .N ⊗q−1 fi.N . we can see that convergence to a Normal law is no longer true.9. .H = .N ⊗q−1 fi. we observe that the term T2 is the dominant term in the decomposition of the variation statistic VN . fj.August 19. Instead.1]2q−2k ) i.N ⊗ ˜ k fj.N = f2N + r2 . using the same criterion.s. Let 0 PN −1 N 2H−1 N (2−2H ) i=0 fi. where r2 is a remainder term and 0 f2N (y.G. N →∞ Based on these results we can easily prove that VN converges to 0 a. Viens norm of each term.1. i=0 Ii Ii . . How- ever.

moreover. . Comparison & Conclusions In this section.4.7. z).Tn0 (θ) = . The performance measure that we adopt is the asymptotic relative efficiency. The asymptotic relative efficiency of Tn with respect to Tn is defined to be amseTn (θ) eTn . 1]2 ). 1]2 ) to the kernel of the Rosenblatt process at time 1. Our comparative analysis focuses on fBm and the Rosenblatt process.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 21 It can be shown that the term r2 converges to 0 in L2 ([0. i.e. (ii) the asymptotic distributions of the estimators do not have to be the same. [7]. con- verges in L2 (Ω) to the Rosenblatt process at time 1.28) amseTn0 (θ) 0 (iii) Tn is said to be asymptotically more efficient than Tn if and only if lim sup eTn .Tn0 (θ) ≤ 1. which is by definition N −1 Z Z 0 X 0 0 0 (H 0 (2H 0 −1))(q−1) d(H)2 N 2H−1 N 2−2H |u−v|(2H −2)(q−1) ∂1 K H (u. the second-chaos term T2 . which we now define according to [24]: Definition 1. for all θ and n lim sup eTn . (1.10) between double integrals and L2 ([0. These definitions are in the most general setup: indeed (i) they are not restricted by the usual assumption that the estimators converge to a Normal distribution. D αn (Tn − θ) → Y. n Remark 1. 1]2 ). that the dominant term in VN .e.August 19. EY 2 amseTn (θ) = . we compare the estimators described in Sections 2 and 4.5. This will be important in our comparison later. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . for some θ. i. Suppose that for some probability law Y with positive and finite second moment. αn 0 0 (ii) Let Tn be another estimator of θ. by the isometry property (1. since the maximum likelihood and the wavelets methods cannot be applied to higher order Hermite processes. The reader can consult [6].9. i=0 Ii Ii This implies. (i) The asymptotic mean square error of Tn (amseTn (θ)) is defined to be the asymp- 2 totic expectation of (Tn − θ) .Tn0 (θ) < 1. Let Tn be an estimator of θ for all n and {αn } a sequence of positive numbers such that αn → +∞ or αn → α > 0. [27] and [28] for all details of the proof. 1. y)∂1 K H (v. while f2N converges in L2 ([0.75in x 6.

1. . 3/4). Before discussing the above results let us recall the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound theory (see [24]). √ log N N This implies that lim sup eĤN (α). Ĥmle (H) = [2 D(H)]−1 ≈ √ log N N This implies that lim sup eĤN (α).29) where I(H) is the Fisher information defined by ( 2 ) ∂ I (H) := E log fH (X) . then 2H 2 (2H−1) 4H−3 4 N 1−H log N N H−1/2 eĤN (α).5in H˙estimators˙review2 22 A. then 16 √ 9 4 N log N 1 eĤN (α). Remark 1.August 19. Chronopoulou. By Ĥmle we mean either the exact mle or the Whittle approximate mle.5. Viens 1. mle We start with the case of a filter of order 1 for fBm. Ĥ mle (H) = [2 D(H)]−1 ≈√ N √ log N N Similarly. Ĥmle (H) = [2 D(H)]−1 ≈ .75in x 6. since both have the same asymptotic distribution. identically distributed random variables) with common distribution PH and corresponding density function fH . meaning that ĤN (α) is asymptotically more efficient than Ĥmle . . • If H = 3/4.9. (1. Since the asymptotic behavior of the variations estimator depends on the true value of H we consider three different cases: • If H ∈ (0. . . If T is an estimator of H such that E (T ) = H. meaning that Ĥmle is asymptotically more efficient than ĤN (α). then −1 V ar (T ) ≥ [I(H)] (1.e.Ĥmle (H) = 0. XN ) be a sample (i. F.5. • If H ∈ (3/4. Variations estimator vs. Ĥmle (H) = ∞. then P∞ 2H 2+ k=1 (2k −(k−1)2H −(k+1)2H )2 √ 2 N log N 1 eĤN (α). as in the first scenario the variations estimator is asymptotically more efficient than the mle.G. 1). 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume .30) ∂H . Let X = (X1 .

.3. [9]. . The construction of the Fisher information (and accordingly the asymptotic Cramér-Rao Lower Bound) depends on the underlying distribution of the sample and it is going to be different for Xa and Xb . in the case of a simulated fractional Brownian motion with H = 0. In the following graphs. that the asymptotic variance of both the approximate and exact mle converges to the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound and consequently both estimators are asymptotically efficient according to the Fisher criterion. The time- scaling makes a big difference since the vectors Xa and Xb do not have the same distribution.6. 1. by plotting the asymptotic variance against the sample size N . which indicates that if we want to compute the information matrix for the rescaled data. . It has been proved by Dahlhaus. 1]. By the self-similarity property we can derive that Xa =D N H Xb . This is because ĤN is faster only by . . the mle performs better than the estimator based on the variations of the process with filter order p = 1.3. We begin by observing what happens in practice for a filter of order 1.65. even for a very large sample size N .5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 23 Ĥmle (dotted). i. This implies that the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound attained by the mle using Xb is not the same as the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound attained by the mle using Xa . . while the mle is computed using data of the form Xb = (X0 . data such as Xa = (X0 . X1 . . 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . X1 ). .75in x 6. Thus how can the variations estimator be more efficient in some cases? The variations-based estimator is computed using data coming from a fixed time horizon and more specifically [0. It has a smaller asymptotic variance and the asymptotic relative efficiency seems to converge to zero extremely slowly.August 19.9. X N1 .e. we compare the corresponding variations estimator with the mle. . XN ). The inverse of the Fisher information is called Cramér-Rao Lower Bound. the scaling contains the parameter H and this will alter the information matrix and its rate of convergence. Remark 1. ĤN (bold) Asymptotic Relative Efficiency Fig. As we observe in Figure 1. Comparison of the variations’ estimator and mle for a filter of order p =1.

Ĥmle . we have 1 eĤN (α).4) that the constant is now significantly smaller.G. Variations’ vs. Chronopoulou.b)). the factor log N (which is quite slow) and the constants in the case of ĤN are quite large. 1) 1 eĤN (α). F. Ĥ mle (H) ≈ N log N and from this we conclude that the variations estimator is always asymptotically more efficient than the mle.August 19. Wavelet Estimator In this subsection we compare the variations and the wavelets estimators for the both the fBm and the Rosenblatt process. N →0 ĤN (α). we have that for all H ∈ (0. ĤN (bold) Asymptotic Relative Efficiency Fig. Ĥwave (H) ≈ p . 1. and for any Q ≥ 1 in the wavelets estimator. Comparison of the variations’ estimator and mle for a filter of order p = 10. α(N ) log N Based on the properties of α(N ) as stated before (Theorem 1.5.75in x 6.2). then for a filter of order p ≥ 1 in the variations estimator.9. Using the results proved in the previous sections (esp.2. we con- clude that lim e (H) = 0. 1.5in H˙estimators˙review2 24 A. Viens Ĥmle (dotted).4 part (1. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . fBm : (1) Let 0 < H < 3/4. If we do the same plots as before we can see (Figure 1. Theorem 1. Let us consider now the case of longer filters (p ≥ 2).4.

it can be applied not only when the data come from a fractional Brownian motion.e. variograms. The wavelets estimator does not have the problems of computational time which plague the mle: using efficient techniques. . log N so the variations estimator is asymptotically more efficient than the wavelets one. we have 1 eĤN (α). due to their simplicity and universality. which implies that the wavelet estimator performs better. in order to estimate the Hurst parameter it would be preferable to use any of the other tech- niques. the estimator based on the discrete variations is asymptotically more efficient than the estimator based on wavelets or the mle. since it can be constructed by simple transformation of the data. the estimator based on variations is much simpler. (3) When 3/4 < H < 1. such as Mallat’s algorithm. using again the optimal choice of α(N ) as proposed in [1]. it appears that the estimator based on the discrete variations of the process is asymptotically more efficient than the estimator based on wavelets. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume .75in x 6. (2) When 3/4 < H < 1. but also when they come from any other non-Gaussian Hermite process of higher order. Rosenblatt process : Suppose that 1/2 < H < 1.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 25 which implies that the variations estimator is asymptotically more efficient than the wavelets estimator. However.August 19. Ĥwave (H) ≈ α(N )2−2H log N If we choose α(N ) to be the optimal as suggested by Bardet and Tudor in (1−H)(1−2δ) [1] . and Q = 1 for the wavelets estimator. Ĥwave (H) ≈ .9. Ĥwave (H) ≈ . α(N ) = N 1/2+δ for δ small. correlograms) are useful for a preliminary analysis to determine whether long mem- ory may be present. α(N )1−H log N Again. then for a filter of order p = 1 in the variations estimator. Moreover. Ĥwave (H) ≈ N log N . then for any filter of any order p ≥ 1 in the variations estimator. with the behavior of α(N ) as stated in Theorem 1. we have N 2−2H eĤN (α). the conclusion is that the heuristic approaches (R/S. and any Q ≥ 1 for the wavelets based estimator. we conclude that the variations estimator is asymptotically more efficient than the wavelet estimator. i.2. Overall. we have 1 N ( 2 −H)−2δ(1−H) eĤN (α). Overall. the wavelets estimator takes seconds to compute on a standard PC platform. in most cases. then eĤN (α). then for a filter of order p ≥ 2 in the variations estimator and Q = 1 for the wavelets estimator. How- ever. Summing up.

Annals of Statistics. Chronopoulou. Chronopoulou. 1749-1766. Beran (1994): Statistics for Long-Memory Processes.9. Breton and I.B. Wavelets. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume .17. 109-122. Preprint. [8] J. 425-441. [9] R. Chronopoulou. . Major (1983): Central limit theorems for nonlinear functionals of Gaussian fields. 432-444. 4. [2]J. The benefits of using longer filters needs to be investigated further. C. [4]J.Mathematique 347.A.A. [3] J. Preprint.5in H˙estimators˙review2 26 A. Bardet and C. References [1]J-M.August 19. 13 (3). is something that will be investigated in a subsequent article. It would be interesting to study the choice of different types of filters. Clarendon Press. [6] A. [10] R. Nourdin (2008): Error bounds on the non-normal approx- imation of Hermite power variations of fractional Brownian motion. Tudor and F. Fractals and Fourier transforms.75in x 6. [5] P. 199-227. 22. [11] P. Raymond (1994): Evaluating rescaled range analysis for time series.F. Electronic Communications in Probability. J.G. Viens Finally. Specifically. [7] A. Breuer and P. Multivariate Analysis.A. Annals of Biomedical Engineering. which is not as straightfor- ward as in the case of filter of order 1. Flandrin (1993): Fractional Brownian motion and wavelets. Tudor (2008): A wavelet analysis of the Rosenblatt process: chaos expansion and estimation of the self-similarity parameter. 482-493. Z. Dobrushin and P. we are able to reduce the asymptotic variance and consequently the standard error significantly. Dahlhaus (1989): Efficient parameter estimation for self-similar processes. 663-666. 27-52. such as wavelet-type filters versus finite difference filters. Tudor and F. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes. Comptes rendus . Coeurjolly (2001): Estimating the parameters of a fractional Brownian motion by discrete variations of its sample paths. Viens (2009): Variations and Hurst index estimation for a Rosenblatt process using longer filters. F. the complexity introduced by the construction of the estimator based on a longer filter. Bassingthwaighte and G. when we apply a longer filter in the estimation procedure. 50. Chapman and Hall.M. Major (1979): Non-central limit theorems for non- linear functionals of Gaussian fields.L. Viens (2009): Application of Malliavin cal- culus to long-memory parameter estimation for non-Gaussian processes. Gebiete. Oxford. 13. C.-C.

Gebiete.Probab. [18] I. Stochastic Processes and their Applica- tions. [25] M. Nualart and S. [15] M. 116. Tudor (2007): Wiener integrals and a Non-Central Limit Theorem for Hermite processes. Second Edition. Fox. [24] J. A. 13. P. 118. Nualart (2006): Malliavin Calculus and Related Topics. [14] A. 271-285. 428- 446. 247-262. G.75in x 6. Louis. Shao (2007): Mathematical Statistics. (1951): Long Term Storage Capacity of Reservoirs. The Annals of Probability. 1043- 1056. 31. Peccati and C. . Preprint. [19] D. 33. [17] I. London. Taqqu (1985): Non-central limit theorems for quadratic forms in random variables having long-range dependence.K. Tudor (2004): Gaussian limits for vector-valued multiple stochastic integrals. Nourdin. 614-628. Stochastic Analysis and Applications. Mandelbrot (1975): Limit theorems of the self-normalized range for weakly and strongly dependent processes. 173-193. Z. Th. monographs & tracts. Nualart and G. Ann.A. [20] D. to appear. Z. D. 31. 25 (5). Inst. Fields. Peccati (2005): Central limit theorems for sequences of multiple stochastic integrals. [13] Hurst. Peccati and A. Taqqu (1994): Stable Non-Gaussian random vari- ables.A Tudor (2007): Central and Non-Central Limit Theorems for weighted power variations of the fractional Brownian motion. [23] G. 18 pages. Maejima and C. Rel. Gebiete.5in H˙estimators˙review2 Hurst Index Estimation for Self-similar processes with Long-Memory 27 [12] R. Statist. Poincaré Probab. [21] D. [22] G. Ortiz-Latorre (2008): Central limit theorems for multiple stochastic integrals and Malliavin calculus. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Wiley-Interscience series of texts. Springer. Nourdin. Taqqu (1975): Weak convergence to the fractional Brownian motion and to the Rosenblatt process. Maass. 287-302.A. H. Samorodnitsky and M.B. [16] B. Springer. Chapman and Hall. M..August 19. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume . Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers. XXXIV. Réveillac (2008): Multivariate normal approxima- tion using Stein’s method and Malliavin calculus. H.9. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Séminaire de Probabilités. Nualart and C. Rieder (1997): Wavelets: Theory and applications Pure & Applied Mathematics. 770-799.

Tudor and F. [29] P.9. 2009 20:16 World Scientific Review Volume .G. F.A. 2. Annals of Probability. . Whittle (1953): Estimation and information in stationary time series. 37 pages. 13 pages. Viens (2008): Variations of the fractional Brownian motion via Malliavin calculus.75in x 6. 230-257. ESAIM Probability and Statistics. Mat.A. 423-434. Viens [26] C. Chronopoulou.A. Viens (2008): Variations and estimators through Malliavin calculus. [28] C. [27] C. Tudor (2008): Analysis of the Rosenblatt process. to appear. to appear. Tudor and F.5in H˙estimators˙review2 28 A..August 19. Australian Journal of Mathematics. 12. Ark.

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