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Global Warming for Scientists and Thoughtful Environmentalists I thought that you might be interested.

Global warming is a "hot" topic lately.
I’ve discovered a genetic climatic cycle that explains the co-variances in the Vostok ice core data which includes most of the present day global warming. We can best predict the future by understanding the controlling factors of the past! The genetic climatic cycle has functional elements in common with the Pennsylvanian age cyclothem,!4 and Pete Vail's global cycle charts. !3 World climates and geologic cycles have varied due to these same co-variant factors for hundreds of million of years! The Antarctic ice varves supply a unique continuous geologic record. The genetic climatic cycle explains the rapid transgressions that punctuate our geologic record.!3 These cycles are the latest genetic refinement to chrono-stratigraphy that merit serious geologic consideration. The public technical paper below explains the co-variant factors that act in accordance with physical laws that are bounded by the earth’s physical limits. Jean-Robert Petit !1 reviewed it and provided many helpful suggestions. I'll respond to any enquiring e-mails that arise from this cyclic climatic-geologic revelation. I could also give a talk to any group that is interested. Supporting technical papers are hyperlinked for readers that have more than a casual interest. Please feel free to forward this on to a person that might be interested in global warming or becoming a scientist. (i.e.) one who proposes hypotheses and tests them with data. Phil Holbrook

The Predominant Factors controlling Climatic Cycles and Global warming for the Last 400,000 years
by Phil Holbrook Ph.D.
Climatic cycles have occurred hundreds of times throughout geologic history. We can best adapt to the most recent global warming and predict future changes by understanding the physical interactions and feedbacks that have controlled climatic cycles throughout geologic history.

The earth’s average temperature has been in the lower range of liquid water for the last six hundred million (600,000,000) years. The earth’s average temperature is now only 0.4 degrees Celsius warmer than the UN 1990 datum. It has been 9 degrees Celsius cooler and +3 degrees Celsius warmer in the last 400,000 years. There is no reason to predict outside this range in the foreseeable future. The mass of [water+ice] and carbon on earth are essentially fixed. Pleistocene and Holocene climatic cycles are predominantly driven by phase changes between water and ice near the earth’s north and south poles. These phase changes have accompanying albedo extremes which accelerate the transitions between warm and cool earth. Today about seventy (70%) percent of the earth’s surface is covered by oceans. About three percent (3%) is covered by floating or grounded ice. Glacial ice has covered up to thirty (30%) four times in the last four hundred thousand (400,000) years. The ocean full maximum is the water phase extreme of a natural climatic cycle. There is a complementary ice phase extreme with accompanies glacial sea level low stands. The earth’s climate toggles between these water phase extremes which have corresponding global energy (temperature) extremes and albedo extremes. It appears as if the earth has toggled between the complementary water-albedo extremes four times in the last 400,000 years. There is a genetic climatic cycle in which the predominant controlling factors are deterministically inter-related. The average temperature of the earth is a balance of solar energy in vs. surface energy radiated back out into space. Albedo (reflectance) and absorbed solar energy are complementary thermal balance relationships. What isn’t reflected is absorbed and vice versa. Oceanic and atmospheric albedo control global temperature.

Observed climatic patterns over the last 400,000 years
There are thin annual accumulations of polar snow that record each summer and winter. Evidence of the four

preceding climatic cycles can be found in ice cores near the South Pole of Antarctica. These seasonal layers have also been radioactivity age dated.

The most recent global warming was initiated about twelve thousand years ago coincident with clearer skies. Clear skies are the initial causal factor in all the last four global warming cycles! Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica”, 1999, Petit J.R. !1 et al., Nature 399: 429-436. The chart
The primary source article is “ below shows how the predominant controlling factors varied in each of the four climatic cycle over 420,000 years. I have added annotations which any scientific reader can examine and hopefully understand. The dust in the ice was measured in parts per million and displayed as a continuous red trace. The Carbon Dioxide in the ice was measured in parts per million. The data are displayed as a continuous green trace. The average world temperature is estimated from

the amount of Deuterium 16 (δ ) in an annual ice

core layer. A continuous trace of the temperature converted data is color coded blue.
There is a relative sea level chart for the last 400,000 years on the left. The end of each is marked with a dashed line that crosses the red, green, and blue measured data plots. The color coded scales for these three variables are shown above and below the composite Vostok data plot. This public technical paper focuses the physical laws, physical properties and natural limits that tend to explain the very interesting patterns that we observe. I don’t believe that there is a question on the laws, properties or limits. If the laws and limits agree with the data, we have a justifiable genetic climate cycle hypothesis. Anyone can test and verify this complex hypothesis with data as is done below.

ice phase extreme

The low Albedo thermal spikes correspond to liquid water phase extremes. These will be explained below in General and detailed Albedo considerations.

Summary Interpretations of Vostok Antarctica Ice Core Data
There is a general pattern of genetic climatic cycles in the last four hundred thousand (400,000) years. Each cycle begins a slow and erratic gradual cooling for over more than eighty thousand (>80,000) years. The similarity and parallelism between Carbon Dioxide and δ 16 temperature occurred well before the industrial age. The causality is uncertain and open to question. The gradual cooling is followed by a sudden rapid temperature increase or thermal spike over less than twenty thousand (<20,000) years. This rapid low albedo global warming resets the genetic climatic cycle. These co-variant interactions are physical, natural and repetitive! The apparent time length of the four cycles in the Vostok data varies from eighty five (85,000) to one hundred twenty five thousand (125,000) years. Dust concentration in the ice is above (>2 ppm) in the recognized glacial sea level low stands that correspond to Ice phase extremes. Wind born dust is carried to Polar Regions through global atmospheric circulation. The first twelve to twenty (12,000 – 20,000) thousand years following an ice age have less than (< 0.2 ppm) of dust. This would probably represent a remarkable ten fold or more clearing of the post glacial skies. The earth is now in a post glacial period. Ice core dust has been below (<0.1 ppm) for the most recent 12,000 years. The skies have generally been clear. Dust was above (>1.0 ppm) in the preceding glacial sea level low stand. Dust is now down 100 fold from the preceding that ice phase extremes with corresponding glacial maxima. The skies are that much clearer now and most polar ice is melted. Carbon Dioxide has increased by only 100 ppm over the last 10,000 years while δ 16 temperature has decreased 0.4 degrees. The average correlation between Carbon Dioxide and δ 16 temperature has been weak and is actually negative for most of the last 12,000 years. The time span is too long to be explained by a δ 16 temperature or Carbon Dioxide ice trapping time lag.

Carbon Dioxide is equilibrated between the oceans and the atmosphere. (see .) The solubility of Carbon Dioxide is a strong inverse function of surface seawater temperature. Carbon Dioxide solubility is 40.8 percent greater in cold (50C) water than in warm (150C) water. The Vostok ice core data shows a maximum twelve (120C) degree change in each of the last four climatic cycles.The earth’s average temperature has been within these annotated limits over the last four hundred thousand (400,000) years. Temperature and Carbon Dioxide seem to reverse themselves in parallel in all four climatic cycles represented in the Vostok ice core. This is primarily because the colder surface water can hold about forty percent (40%) more Carbon Dioxide in solution. Oceanic Carbon Dioxide is in direct contact equilibrium with atmospheric Carbon Dioxide over seventy (70%) of the earth’s present surface. Through atmospheric circulation this oceanic solubility equilibrium extends over the entire earth.
The Carbon Dioxide data over 400,000 years is nowhere above 300 ppm. The δ 16 ice core temperature data is nowhere above +3 degrees Celsius. The present average annual temperature is only +0.4 degrees Celsius with respect to accepted UN data. The blue arrow at the top of the chart connects measured atmospheric data and transformed δ 16 temperature data. The Vostok ice core temperature data seems to be well calibrated with respect to 1990 datum. The apparent offset of Carbon Dioxide and δ 16 temperature in each of the preceding post glacial periods is weak. One could easily quantify this weakness by calculating the correlation coefficients in all four post glacial periods. These are the low dust periods after a glacial sea level low stand. The statistics will quantify what the eye can see. The correlations are not good! If the correlations are weak or negative, any overall causal relationship of increasing Carbon Dioxide driving temperature would also be weak or negative. Should we be making world policy decisions or passing laws considering of this weak or negative data? The Controls of [Water+Ice] Conservation on Global Warming and Sea Level The conservation of mass principle applies to earthly physics. The mass of [water+ice] has probably not changed significantly for over one hundred million (>100,000,000) years.

Bill Bryson’s (ISBN 0-7679-

0818-X, pp.272-3) summary covers this very well. There is an approximately five hundred (500) year time lag between dust cessation and the increases in ice trapped Carbon Dioxide and air temperature. It takes that much time to heat the large volume of oceanic surface waters with solar radiation. The significantly (10X to 100X) clearer skies would allow tens to hundreds of times more solar energy to reach the earth’s ocean and land surfaces (See General and detailed Albedo considerations below). Our atmosphere is principally heated by the long wave length radiation that comes up

from the sea or earth’s surface. An atmospheric dust cloud limits surface heating during a glacial sea level low stand. When the dust clears, temperatures have increased rapidly as the Vostok and Greenland ice core data shows. Today we are in the rising portion of the most recent low albedo thermal spike. An acceptable climatic cycle hypothesis should explain the predominant controlling factors and account for the glacial-interglacial cycles in the last four thousand (400,000) years. This one does. [Water+Ice] limit of the earth’s cyclic climatic system We are neither adding nor subtracting matter to the earth’s surface. [Water+ice] is conserved as is Carbon. Incident solar energy is regulated by albedo! During a glacial sea level low stand water occurs as ice on continents such as North America, Greenland, Europe, Asia and Antarctica. Water is temporarily stored as continental glaciers that are thousands of feet thick. Worldwide sea level is lower by hundreds of feet. Sherwood B. Idso and Craig D. Idso of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change published a June 6, 2007 article entitled “Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Separating Scientific Fact from Personal Opinion”. Their data suggests that the rate of sea level rise is decreasing. Such a decrease would occur before a pause or reversal of a climatic cycle. Their discussion and data are on;

Sea level rise will pause as floating ice is melted. [Water+ice] conservation sets an upper limit to sea level regardless of the proposed thermal mechanisms. This pause and reversal has occurred four (4) times in the last four hundred thousand (400,000) years.

The recent melting of ice over the North Pole has been dramatic. We have lost about twenty percent of the ice that was over the Arctic Ocean in 1990. We have lost another ten percent between 2005, and 2007. At this rate, it will not take long before the Arctic Ocean is ice free. This should cause a major decrease in the earth’s albedo and increase ocean temperature near and above the Northern Arctic Circle. However the melting of floating ice will probably have little measurable effect on sea level elsewhere. Any floating ice is buoyed up by the volume of water that is displaced (Archimedes principle). When the water borne ice is completely melted, the resultant liquid sea level will be essentially the same. The earth’s climatic system is contained by its natural physical limits. Sea level rise is limited by the mass of available [water+ice]. The 2005 and 2007 snapshots show that ice retreat from the surrounding continents is uneven. That could be yearly fluctuations in a steady ice melting trend. This is primarily

due to temperature and would occur whether Carbon Dioxide is increasing or decreasing. The Idso’s article documents functionally similar behavior of the Antarctic Ice shelf. Also their data show that the extent of recent sea level rise of fifteen (15) millimeters is miniscule. The oceans are probably near their upper water level extreme now.

General and detailed Albedo considerations
The earth’s albedo will decrease markedly when the floating ice is melted. The chart below shows the complementary [Albedo vs. surface heating] relationships. Most clouds, ice, and snow are high albedo (reflective).

Open water is about 7% reflective or 93% absorptive. The oceans are a 93% to 95% efficient heat sinks! All wavelengths of light are absorbed by ocean surface water. Ocean water is three times (3x) more efficient than ice at absorbing solar radiant energy. Ocean water is five times (5x) more efficient than fresh snow at absorbing solar radiant energy. Rising temperature allows for increasing cloudiness because warm air can hold more water. The white clouds above the earth have reflectivity above 35%. All land surfaces that are not covered by snow are below 35%. Oceanic waters, forested land and wetlands are the dominant earth surface heat sinks. The presence of clouds, ice or snow changes the earth from dominantly absorptive to dominantly reflective. All things considered the effect is essentially binary. Widespread cloudiness or dust should initiate a relative cooling of the entire earth. The data suggests that this has occurred suddenly in the past. The Krakatoa volcanic dust explosion is a recent example. We are probably not at the natural reversal condition yet. (Refer back to the low Albedo thermal spikes in the Vostok ice core data).

Apparent Climatic Cycle limiting conditions
Snow and ice at the polar ice caps are usually well below freezing. Sub freezing temperature plus water phase change represents a huge cold thermal inertia. Several

thousands of feet ice sheets covered North America, Europe and Asia in the last 18,000 years. The present and probable maximum extent of continuous polar ice is shown below. The maximum ice extent is probably about forty five (45) degrees (~2700 miles) lower than the present Northern polar icecap. Present and past icecaps have very high albedo (reflectivity).

Sea level was probably about six hundred (600) feet or two hundred (200) meters lower during the Wisconsin-Wurm glacial ice phase maximum about 18,000 years ago. This would lower the Southern edge of the Northern Hemisphere high albedo (>35%) zone as shown on the map. This would probably also increase the size and area of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric thermal vortex. The edge of the northern polar easterly vortex would be at or beyond the edge of continental glacier advance. The same decrease in temperature would hardly move the Southern Hemisphere ice edge. The six hundred (600) feet or two hundred (200) meters isobath is less than (<2) two nautical miles North of the present ice edge. Any ice beyond that would probably be floating and subject to more severe circum polar currents than we have today. The question marks at the bottom are about three (3) nautical miles north of the present ice shelf. A possible outcome of this would be to shift the Equatorial Tropical Convergence Zone to the South. Another possible outcome would be to reduce the present six atmospheric convective cells to two. Radical reorganization of convective cells would also cause about three times (3X) calmer winds and resultant clearer skies. The cause may be speculative, but we know that major dust changes have occurred four (4) times in the last four hundred thousand (400,000) years. The maximum Southern Ice sheet extent is almost entirely over water. Relatively few land square miles would be subjected to the prevailing Westerlies in the Southern hemisphere. Widespread cloud layers reflect both incoming and outgoing radiant energy (see cumulus stratus on the preceding Albedo vs. surface heating chart). The natural cooling process is gradual and reversible until the Arctic Ocean is again covered with ice. This has taken more than seventy (>70,000) thousands of years in the preceding three cycles.

The Physical Properties of Major Gasses in the Earth’s Atmosphere

Gas Name Nitrogen Oxygen *Water Argon *Carbon Dioxide Other

Chemical Formula N2

Percent Volume 78.08% 20.95% 0 to 4% 0.93% 0.0360% 0.00335%

O2 H2O Ar CO2 Gas phases * variable gases

Average composition of the atmosphere up to an altitude of 25 km. (taken from ) Water is the only chemical compound that occurs in all three physical states at earthly temperatures. Water can compose up to four percent (0 to 4%) of the earth’s atmosphere. Water has an 80 calorie/gram heat of fusion and 540 calorie/gram heat of vaporization. These phase changes represent a huge thermal capacity with associated (thermal inertia). Each gram of water can absorb or release up to 620 calorie/gram in the earth’s atmosphere. These are very large energies. The longer term climatic cycles are buffered by ocean surface waters. The daily temperature variations over deserts are more than double that of a rainforest. Atmospheric water is what buffers the earth’s daily and yearly temperature cycles. All of the other significant atmospheric gasses are clear and dry. They cannot store or release heat through phase changes. The gasses in the atmosphere do not change their individual physical properties. They are infinitely mixable. The dry gasses only contribute their small share to the net atmospheric heat capacity.

What about the “greenhouse gas” effects?
Carbon Dioxide and Methane are dry gasses that have only trace (<400 ppm) combined abundances in the earth’s oceans and atmosphere. Globally most (200 to 300ppm) of the correspondence of the Carbon Dioxide increase can be attributed to the strong (40%) inverse surface ocean water temperature vs. Carbon Dioxide solubility relationship. The contributing effect of Carbon Dioxide resulting from industrial activity can be no more than <0.0001% percent or (100 parts per million). Water is about one hundred (100) times more abundant than Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere before multiplying its dramatically higher (80 to 620 calorie/gram) heat capacity due to phase changes. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’s potential for heat retention is very small (<1/100,000) compared to water. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’s effect should not be exaggerated as is done by completely ignoring the heat capacity water phase changes and accompanying (3x-5x) albedo contrast. These are the most significant natural temperature regulating factors. The albedo (reflectivity) of atmospheric clouds works both ways. Clear skies don’t reflect heat in either direction. One must consider the net heat flow across cloud layers to objectively decide if there is an atmospheric “greenhouse effect” or not. Clouds have high albedo and significant heat capacity. Their apparent white color is their visible water content. Maximum atmospheric water abundance depends on air temperature while Carbon Dioxide does not. Carbon Dioxide has 1.) only trace abundance, 2.) no albedo 3.) very low of heat capacity and 4.) no sensitivity to

temperature. Are these the expected properties of a significant “greenhouse gas”? David H. Douglas and Benjamin D. Pearson of the University of Rochester’s physics and astronomy department, and John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville agree that today’s global warming is predominantly natural. Christy noted that satellite and independent balloon data “agree that atmospheric warming trends do not exceed those of the surface. Greenhouse models, on the other hand, demand that atmospheric trend values be 2-3 times greater.” Clearly they are not. Upper atmospheric temperature fluctuations are less than near surface not greater. The empirical data, says Christy, “suggests that [greenhouse] models ignore negative feedbacks, produced by clouds and by water vapor, that diminish the warming effects of Carbon Dioxide.” Christy and Douglas support what would otherwise be (1,2,3,4) obvious from purely physical properties reasoning. All the obvious physical properties explanations and Christy’s evaluation point toward the same conclusion! The glacial dust clouds work in concert with glacial ice and snow which have (35% to 85%) reflectivity. Their near simultaneous disappearance allows drastically higher heating to occur due to drastically lower earth albedo. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide is a clear dry gas and has no effect on albedo. has been initiated by clearer skies in the last four climatic cycles. This is primarily a (93% to 95%) oceanic heat absorption effect not an atmospheric “greenhouse” gas effect. The abrupt cessation of dust is a fact revealed in the Vostok Ice core data. Opinions do not change physical laws or limiting facts!
Global warming

Atmospheric Heat Retention
The article in Wikipedia correctly debunks the more prevalent “greenhouse gas” misconceptions. It also explains why Carbon Dioxide is classified as a “greenhouse gas”. But is Carbon Dioxide significant with respect to oceanic water vs. ice albedo or atmospheric water’s extraordinary heat capacity? The figure below was extracted from Wikipedia and annotated.

Down going solar radiation is 70-75% transmitted through the atmosphere. Up going

infrared radiation is 15-30% transmitted through the atmosphere. Changes in these percentages are the logical basis for “greenhouse gas” explanations. The down going Solar Radiation is color coded red on the uppermost Spectral Intensity chart. The up going Thermal Radiation is color coded blue on the Spectral Intensity chart. Between the red and blue is a band of low spectral intensity. There would be negligible heating or cooling from the (2 to 4 µ meter) frequency range. The notches and spikes in the smooth energy spectra are caused by molecular vibrational modes of the dominant atmospheric gasses. Carbon Dioxide molecules are linear and have only a stretching mode. Atmospheric water has both stretching and rotational vibration modes (see Winkipia article). Water in the atmosphere is significantly heated by both down going solar radiation and up going thermal radiation. Carbon Dioxide molecules absorb significant energy only in the up going (14 to 17 µ meter) frequency range. Atmospheric water absorbs a very broad band radiation as indicated by the blue cross hatched /// pattern in the second track. Water vapor is warmed somewhat by down going radiation but atmospheric water dominates up going wavelengths above (4 µ meter). Carbon Dioxide’s absorption is cross hatched \\\ in green in its individual track and the Percent Spectral Intensity track. It is a significant contributor only in the (14 to 17 µ meter) frequency range. Carbon Dioxide accounts for less than five (<5%) of total atmospheric heat absorption.

Comparitive liquid vs. vapor phase heat balance
Liquid phase water has a flat spectral intensity response. The dry gasses, Nithogen, Oxygen and Carbon Dioxide occur as dispersed ions in oceanic water. The depth of surficial heating can be measured directly with an in situ temperature probe or conventional liquid expansion thermometer. The depth of heating is related to the base of wave oscillatory motion. Typically oceans have a fifty to 100 foot wave base depth. Deep lakes might be on the order of five feet.

The earth’s climatic cycles are limited by its dominant constituents. Water, dust and land plants are almost the whole story with respect to earthly temperatures. There are significant feedbacks through albedo. The positions of a continent at the South Pole and open-ocean at the North pole is a short lived coincidence in geologic history. The fixed mass of [water+ice] toggles between two water phase extremes given the present (continent-ocean) geometry. During the four (4) previous glacial periods, ice has piled up on continents covering up to 30% of the earth’s surface. The most complete record of the earth’s climatic cycles is recorded in ice. The Vostok ice core data indicates that the center of Antarctica accumulated snow even at the earth’s water phase extremes. Water has a huge heat capacity compared to the dry gasses in the oceans and atmosphere. The 540 and 80 calorie/gram phase changes must occur if one changes water from ice to vapor. These changes will occur at different temperatures depending on the pressure. None of the clear dry gasses (Nitrogen, Oxygen, Argon, or Carbon Dioxide) undergoes a single phase change under earth atmospheric PV/T conditions. A rapid temperature increase follows the abrupt cessation of dust that occurs after an ice phase extreme. The earth’s most recent global warming began at least twelve thousand (12,000) years ago and continues today. We are in the rising portion of a low albedo thermal spike now. We are approaching the turning point of a low albedo thermal spike. This will increase the atmospheres water retention and resultant heat capacity. Widespread cloudiness would increase the earth’s albedo and probably initiate a relative cooling. This temperature reversal has been abrupt in the preceding three climatic cycles. Albedo and temperature reinforce each other in the same direction causing unusually rapid changes.

The Carbon Dioxide and temperature correspondences have been ragged and mostly negative for the last ten thousand (10,000) years. The complete melting of the floating North Polar ice cap would drastically decrease the earth’s albedo. The resultant change in global sea level would probably be miniscule (Archimedes principle). Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide is a clear dry gas that is buffered by land plants They plants. need no encouragement and will absorb a great deal resulting primarily in faster plant growth Forests, meadows and croplands have very high heat absorption (See albedo growth. chart). Considering albedo, land plant growth should increase the rate of global warming not decrease. This would be no catastrophe. I agree with Christy and Douglas’ (3x) atmospheric greenhouse arguments and describe the oceanic water vs. ice albedo feedbacks that are (3x to 5x) greater. That is a net (9x to 15X) agreement considering the atmospheric feedbacks. Further Carbon Dioxide’s contribution to “greenhouse gas” heat absorbtion-retention is negligible (>5%) to that of atmospheric water. Oceanic surface waters have about ninety (90) times greater heat capacity of the entire earth’s atmosphere! The oceans are about (1,800,000) times more effective heat sinks on a daily or yearly basis. Heat is retained from year-to-year in the near surface oceanic waters. The dominant climatic factors are in the oceans and not in the atmosphere.

Experimental Reccomendations
Any heating or cooling imbalances should be from outdoor measured data. Experimentally one could measure solar energy under a desert dust cloud, accounting for the dust and relative humidity effects on atmospheric pressure. We could possibly add desert dust cloud measurements to the (Albedo vs. surface heating) chart above. If temperature is reversible and oceanic water level has an upper limit, let’s recognize and specifically respect the earth’s physical limits and incorporate them into our climatic models. The albedo of water and ice phases varies from about (5% to 84%). About two thirds of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide variability over (400,000) years is related to oceanic surface water temperature solubility effects. Any proposed climate system model should include known mass conservation limits and calculable thermal inertia. Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere is absorbed by land plants When carbon is plants. incorporated in cellulose it is temporarily removed from the Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere. This is the earth’s natural atmospheric Carbon Dioxide buffer. A rapid land plant rebound is suggested following the cessation of global sea level low stand dust. Refer back to the annotated Vostok Ice core data chart to appreciate this combined climatic cycle effect.

We are the luckiest generation in human history. The earth’s climate has been better than ever in the last fifty years. We should enjoy the balmy climate during the lower half of this low albedo thermal spike. Humans have migrated to more comfortable locations due to changing climate in the past. The Anasazi Indians migrated from hot dry plains into cooler canyons annually. They left behind impressive structures, but the Anasazi are now gone. The same can be said of the Mayan and Inca cultures that are also gone. All arrived on the American continents about twelve thousand (12,000) years ago. These humans adapted to a changing environment. They did not understand the causes of the climatic change and apparently most of us don’t either.

Animals and plants have also adapted through mutation, migration, and natural selection. Polar bears could be brown in the future. They probably have been in the past. Their white color was a genetic adaptation to a white background environment. As a scientist I was suspicious of all that I was hearing about Carbon Dioxide, “greenhouse gasses” and global warming. I knew about albedo, relative humidity and global atmospheric circulation. The “greenhouse gas” story just didn’t fit. It is like putting all of your explanatory eggs into one unlikely 100 ppm basket. I approached the problem scientifically by examining the data. I rapidly found the Vostok ice core data before I knew where Vostok was. I had seen excellent global sea level cycle charts before and recognized them in the Vostok data almost immediately. The rest was assembling physical facts to formulate a genetic climate hypothesis. Hypothesis formulation is something that scientists do. Galileo was the first scientist who challenged two thousand (2,000) years of Aristotelian physics by examining data. He recognized that Aristotelian scientific opinions were just opinions. He believed that the explanation or hypothesis should correspond to the data. Today the Idso’s agree with me on this. Any person can compare opinions to facts. People do this every day and often intuitively believe that something is missing or wrong. However they might not know or care if the story is right or wrong. I do and as a scientist I know how to resolve the problem. I’ve done so and invite others to examine the data and the genetic climatic cycle hypothesis. _______________________________________________________________________

! 3 Pete Vail et al’s coastal on lap chart is shown below. The Vostok ice core data details
sea level changes in the last four hundred thousand (400,000) years. The Vostok data are composited in the Q3 Third Order Cycle on Pete Vail’s chart. I believe that both are substantially correct. The comparison of time scales is staggering but the same laws of physics and natural limits apply to both.

Low albedo thermal spikes are rare and unusual in the Geologic record. There are only four (4) of them in the four hundred thousand (400,000) years. I believe that these thermal spikes have left their unusual marks as condensed sections in the deep water Gulf of Mexico. Condensed sections have been found to coincide with the horizontal breaks on Pete Vail’s cycle chart above. They are unusually fine grained sediments with a high abundance of diagenetic Glauconite. The condensed sections drape over hundreds to thousands (100,s-1,000,s) of square miles unlike most other Geologic units. The thermal spike sea level changes are probably our most precise geochronologic markers. Both Jean-Robert Petit’s ice core varves and Pete Vail’s cycle chart are the works of sizable teams of talented scientists. Their names are all listed on their respective chronostratigraphic products. I am happy to bring these great works of science together. The thermal spikes to condensed sections causal inference coincide at the upper water phase extremes. Through an understanding of ice cores we have a new physical means of correlating Geologic time sequences between land and deep ocean basins. This is a justifiable extension of the Pete Vail team’s AAPG Memoir 26.

! 4 The global chrono-stratigraphy of the Pennsylvanian Cyclothem was only recently
recognized. Pennsylvanian Cyclothems occurred slightly after the appearance of land plants in the Geologic Record. The peats that became coals were preserved by rapid

burial of the rapid land plant growth growth. The ocean-continent geometry was very different in the Pennsylvanian age. But global eustatic sea level changes have now been suggested as the cause. [Water+ice] conservation is the easiest way to account for simultaneous worldwide rapid and repeated transgressions and regressions. Ice is temporarily stored somewhere on land and later melts.

Hypothesis proposals and testing with data is the past and future of modern science. Global warming over the last one hundred and fifty years is compatible with and the genetic climatic cycle hypothesis that explains four hundred thousand years. Why ignore one or the other? Low albedo thermal spikes may also accompany the second and third order climatic cycles on Pete Vail’s sixty five million year (65,000,000) and longer charts. The hypothesis that fits all of the data best will eventually be added to the accumulated body of scientific knowledge.