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FED SURVEY

July 25, 2017
These survey results represent the opinions of 44 of the nation’s top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.

FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on July 20-22, 2017. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.

1. At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve will:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Raise interest
rates 0%

Lower interest
rates 0%

Keep rates
unchanged 100%

Don't know/
unsure 0%

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
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FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

2. After its upcoming meeting, the Federal Reserve's next
directional move will most likely be:
FED SURVEY
Raise interest rates Lower interest rates
April 30,
Move to negative interest rates Launch new quantitative easing
100%
100% 100%100%100%100%100%
98% 98%
90% 94% 95% 95%
92%
90% Raise interest rates: 98%
88%
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

Launch new quantitative easing: 2%
20%

10% 10% Lower interest rates: 0%
10%
4% 5% 5%
3% 2% 2%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
Jan 27 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Aug 24 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
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FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017
(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)

When will FED SURVEY
the Federal Reserve take this action?
0% April 20%
10% 30, 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Aug 2%

Sep 12% Average:

December
Oct 0%
2017

Nov 5%

Dec 72%

Jan '18 0%

Feb 5%

Mar 5%

Apr 0%

May 0%

Jun 0%

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
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FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

3. How many times in total will the Federal Reserve hike
rates in 2017?
FED SURVEY
5.00 April 30,

4.50

4.00

3.50
3.16
2.98 3.03
3.00
2.78 2.85

2.50
Average

2.50

1.97
2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
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FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

4. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job
Donald Trump is doing as president?
FED SURVEY
April 30, Jun 13 Jul 25
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

27%
Approve
29%

49%
Disapprove
51%

24%
Don't know/
unsure
20%

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
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FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Donald
Trump is doing handling the economy?
FED SURVEY
April 30, Jun 13 Jul 25
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

50%
Approve
43%

26%
Disapprove
36%

Don't 24%
know/
unsure
21%

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
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FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

5. What effect, if any, do recent events surrounding the
effort to replace and repeal Obamacare have on your
FED SURVEY
expectations for future tax reform?
April 30,
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Less likely 55%

No effect 33%

More likely 12%

Don't
know/ 0%
unsure

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
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FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

What effect, if any, do recent reports about connections
between Russia and the Trump campaign have on your
FED
expectations forSURVEY
future tax reform?
April 30,
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Less likely 42%

No effect 54%

More likely 2%

Don't
know/ 2%
unsure

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 8 of 36
FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

6. When do you expect, if at all, the following policies will
be enacted by Congress and signed into law by President
Trump? FED SURVEY
April 30,

Avg. forecast
Mar 14 May 2 June 13 July 25
survey survey survey
Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Health care reform (4% said (12% said (13% said (31% said
“never”) “never”) “never”) “never”)

Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2018
Dodd-Frank reform (11% said (19% said (22% said (25% said
“never”) “never”) “never”) “never”)

Q4 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2018
(0% said (0% said (5% said (5% said
Tax cuts
“never”) “never”) “never”) “never”)

Q1 2018 Q1 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Infrastructure spending
(13% said (14% said (16% said (21% said
hike
“never”) “never”) “never”) “never”)

GSE Q3 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q4 2018
(Fannie and Freddie (33% said (34% said (46% said (41% said
reform) “never”) “never”) “never”) “never”)

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

7. The stock market's expectations for Trump
administration policy changes are:
FED
Too
SURVEYRealistic Too Don't
April 30,
optimistic pessimistic know/
unsure
100%

90%

80%

70%
64%
62% Too optimistic
60%
56% 56%

50%
50%

47%
40%
42% Realistic
39% 39%
36%
30%
32% 31%

20%
Don't know/unsure

11%
Too pessimstic
10% 10%
5%
2% 3% 2% 3% 5%
0%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

8. When do you forecast the European Central Bank will
announce plans to reduce quantitative easing?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Aug
2017 9%

Sep 23%
Average:
Oct 9%
December
Nov 7% 2017

Dec 12%
Jan
2018 9%

Feb 5%

Mar 12%

Apr 0%

May 2%

Jun 2%

Jul 0%

Aug 0%
After
Aug '18 2%
Don't
know 7%

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

9. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on
…?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
December 31, 2017 December 31, 2018

2,700

2588
2,600 2564
2555
2562
2,500
2493

2480 2453
2427 2442
2,400
2409
2357
2354
2,300 2275
2244
2223
2249 2255
2,200 2234 2242
2200
2158
2,100
2107

2,000

1,900

1,800
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25
2016 2017
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

10. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year
Treasury note will be on … ?
FED SURVEY
April 30, December 31, 2017 December 31, 2018

4.0%

3.44% 3.43%
3.5%
3.37%

3.22%

3.09%
3.05%
2.96%
3.0% 2.88%
3.03%
2.90%
2.88%
2.83%
2.54% 2.74%
2.61%
2.5% 2.58% 2.59%
2.26%2.28%

2.24% 2.25%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25
2016 2017
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
Page 13 of 36
FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

11. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
FED SURVEY
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019
April 30,
3.0%

2.73%
2.67%2.70% 2.68%

2.56%

2.5%

2.25% 2.42%
2.17% 2.19%
2.22% 2.15%
2.07% 2.10%
2.06%

2.0%
1.87%
2.02%
1.81%

1.61%1.61%1.62%1.60% 1.78%
1.69%
1.49%
1.5% 1.43%1.42%
1.39%
1.32%
1.43% 1.26%
1.22% 1.37%

1.18% 1.16%
1.0% 1.09%

0.5%

0.0%
Dec Jan Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul
15 15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25
2016 2017

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

12. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminalFED
rate?SURVEY
April 30,
4.0%

3.5%

3.30%
3.20%
3.17%
3.11%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94%
2.92%
2.91%
2.85%2.79% 2.73% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%

2.42% 2.44%

2.29%

2.0%
Sept 16
Sep 16

Sep 20
Oct 28

Oct 27
Dec 16

Mar 17

Jun 16
Jul 28

Dec 15

Mar 15

Jun 14
Jul 26

Dec 13

Mar 14

Jun 13
Jul 25
Aug 20

Jan 27, '15

Aug 25

Jan 26 '16

Aug 24

Jan 31 '17
Apr 28

Apr 26

Nov 1

May 2

Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

13. When do you believe fed funds will reach its
terminal rate?
FED SURVEY
Survey date April 30,
2017 2018 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Aug 20, 2014 Q4
Sept 16 Q3
Oct 28 Q4
Dec 16 Q1
Jan 27, 2015 Q1
Mar 17 Q4
Apr 28 Q1
June 16 Q1
July 28 Q2
Aug 25 Q3
Sept 16 Q1
Oct 27 Q3
Dec 15 Q1
Jan 26, 2016 Q2
Mar 15 Q3
Apr 26 Q4
Jun 14 Q4
Jul 26 Q4
Aug 24 Q4
Sept 20 Q4
Nov 1 Q1
Dec 13 Q2
Jan 31, 2017 Q2
Mar 14 Q2
May 2 Q2
June 13 Q2
Jul 25 Q2

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

14. What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in real U.S. GDP for …?
FED SURVEY 2017 2018
April 30,
3.0%

2.8% +2.76%
+2.75%

+2.62%

2.6% +2.57%

+2.58%

2.45%
+2.43% +2.51%
+2.41% +2.45%
2.4%
+2.38%

+2.28%
+2.26% +2.25%
+2.31%

2.2% +2.25% +2.24% 2.25%
+2.24%
+2.21%
+2.16%

2.0%

1.8%
Jan 26 Aug
Dec 15 Mar 15 Apr 26 Jun 14 Jul 26 Sep 20 Nov 1 Dec 13 Jan 31 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25
'16 24
2017 +2.43 +2.31 +2.41 +2.21 +2.25 +2.26 +2.24 +2.28 +2.16 +2.57 +2.51 +2.38 +2.24 +2.25 2.25%
2018 +2.76 +2.75 +2.62 +2.58 +2.45 2.45%

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

15. What is your forecast for the year-over-year
FEDchange
percentage SURVEY in the headline U.S. CPI for …?
April 30, 2017 2018

2.8%

2.64%

2.6% 2.57%

2.50%

2.44%
2.38%
2.4%
2.36% 2.37%
2.24% 2.28%
2.20% 2.23%
2.2% 2.16%
2.12%

2.13% 2.15%
2.12% 2.12%
2.09%
2.07%
2.0%
2.02%

1.88%
1.8%

1.6%
Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul
15 26 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25
2016 2017
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

16. When do you expect the Fed to allow its balance
sheet to decline?
FED
0% SURVEY
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

April
Jul 30,
0%

Aug 0%

Sep 39%

Oct 27%

Nov 2%

Dec 20%

Jan '18 5%

Feb 2%

Mar 0%

Apr 0%

May 0%
Average:
Jun 0%
September '17
Jul 0%

Aug 0% June 13 Survey:
Sep
November '17
0%

Oct 0%

Nov 0%

Dec 2%

Jan '19 0%

Feb 0%

Mar 0%

Apr 0%

May 0%

Jun '19 or later 0%

Never 2%

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

17. On a scale of -5 (extremely negative) to +5 (extremely
positive), what effect will reducing the balance sheet have
on economicFED SURVEY
growth, stocks, and bonds?
April 30,

Extremely negative Neutral Extremely positive
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 +0.0 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0 +4.0 +5.0

-0.25 Economic growth

-0.80 Stocks

-1.15 Bonds

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

18. What target size for its balance do you believe the
Federal Reserve will adopt?
FED SURVEY
Trillions of dollars
0.0
April
0.5
30,1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Jun
13 2.4
Survey dates

Jul
25 2.5

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

19. Roughly how many years will the Fed take to reach
this goal?
FED SURVEY
Years
0
April
1
30, 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Jun 13 4.6
Survey dates

Jul 25 4.6

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

20. Will Mr. Trump reappoint Fed Chair Janet Yellen?

FED SURVEY
Dec 13 Jan 31 Jun 13 Jul 25
0% April 20%
10% 30, 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

11%
5%
Yes
11%
10%

82%
74%
No
68%
75%

7%
Don't 21%
know/
unsure 21%
15%

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
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FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

21. If Ms. Yellen is not reappointed, who will Mr. Trump
nominate to replace her:
FED SURVEY
Kevin Warsh
John Taylor Don't know Gary Cohn
April 30,
60%

50% Gary Cohn 50%

John Taylor

40%
38%

33%

30%
Kevin Warsh
24%
24%
22% 19%
20% 20%

17%
14%

10% Don't know
9%

3%

0%
Dec 13 Jan 31 Jun 13 Jul 25
Survey Dates

Note: Only responses that received 10% or more on any survey date are shown.

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
Page 24 of 36
FED SURVEY
June 13, 2017

22. Should the next Fed chair be an economist?

0% FED 20%
10% SURVEY
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
April 30,

Yes 38%

No 35%

Don't
know/ 28%
unsure

CNBC Fed Survey – June 13, 2017
Page 25 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

23. Relative to Yellen, do you expect the next Fed chair
(assuming it is not Yellen) to be someone who favors?
FED SURVEY
0% April
10% 30,
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Tighter
monetary 35%
policy

Looser
monetary 10%
policy

Roughly
unchanged
monetary 48%
policy

Don't
know/ 8%
unsure

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 26 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

24. What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S. economic
recovery? (Percentage points)
FED SURVEY

Terrorist attacks in the

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
European recession/

presidential election

European elections
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake
Protectionist trade
April 30,

Slow wage growth
regulatory policies

Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth

Outcome of US
financial crisis

Don't know/
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

policies

unsure
Other
Tax/

U.S.
Survey
Date
Apr 30 20 31 20 0 2 2 11 0
Jun 18 15 28 20 3 3 0 13 0
Jul 30 8 30 22 0 2 2 10 14 4
Sep 17 4 27 22 2 0 4 18 7 2
Oct 29 8 29 24 3 3 3 8 13 0
Dec 17 5 32 29 2 0 2 15 2 2
Jan 28
'14 7 21 30 2 0 0 12 21 0
Mar 18 10 23 26 3 5 0 5 18 0
Apr 28 3 26 21 3 5 0 8 18 13 0
Jul 29 12 29 12 6 3 0 12 12 12 3
Sep 16 6 26 29 6 3 0 6 11 11 3
Oct 28 31 18 15 3 3 0 10 8 8 3
Dec 16 40 14 14 3 6 0 3 14 3 0
Jan 27
'15 0 13 9 0 0 0 6 16 41 6 16 0
Mar 17 6 14 0 3 6 0 6 8 28 17 14 0
April 28 3 11 8 3 0 0 6 11 28 8 19 3
Jun 16 3 17 3 0 0 0 14 25 22 6 11 0
Jul 28 6 21 9 0 0 0 12 6 29 9 9 0
Sept 16 0 16 2 0 4 0 0 8 45 8 14 2
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 13 41 10 5 0
Dec 15 0 10 5 0 0 0 8 10 44 5 3 15 0
Jan 26
'16 0 10 5 0 3 0 0 5 44 8 0 23 3
Mar 15 5 21 3 0 0 0 5 5 33 5 0 3 21 0

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
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FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

Apr 26 0 22 2 2 2 0 0 7 36 9 0 7 11 2
Jun 14 0 28 5 3 0 0 3 0 28 8 0 5 13 10 0
Jul 26 2 FED
20 7SURVEY
2 2 0 2 10 22 7 0 7 7 7 2
Aug 24 3 April
19 330,3 0 0 3 3 31 3 3 6 14 11 0
Sep 20 0 16 11 3 0 0 0 3 30 8 5 5 8 11 0
Nov 1 3 27 8 0 3 0 8 3 32 3 0 0 5 8 0
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 19 0 2 7 28 5 2
Jan 31
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 10 15 0 0 0 51 10 0 0
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 47 4 13 0
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 24 5 0 0 5 26 8 13 0
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 21 8 5 0 0 16 8 0 8 13 0
Jul 25 0 15 5 3 3 0 0 0 13 8 5 0 0 20 5 0 18 8 0

Other responses:

• Demographics
• Fake news
• Unsustainable debt (public and private)

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 28 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

25. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do you
place on the U.S. entering recession? (0=No chance of
FED
recession, SURVEY
100=Certainty of recession)
40% April 30,

36.1%

This survey:
35%
34.0% 19.3%

30%
28.5% 28.8%

26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9% 24.1%
23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1% 19.3%
20% 20.3%
18.9%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 16.4%

15.1%
16.2%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.0%

10%
Mar 16

Mar 19

Jun 18

Mar 18

Mar 17

Jun 16

Mar 15

Jun 14

Mar 14

Jun 13
Aug 11, '11
Sep 19

Jul 31
Sep 12
Dec 11

Jul 30

Dec 17
Jan 28 '14

Jul 29
Sep 16

Dec 16
Jan 27 '15

Jul 28

Dec 15
Jan 15 '16

Jul 26

Sep 20

Dec 13
Jan 31 '17

Jul 25
Jan 23, '12

Jan 29, '13

April 28

Sept 16

Aug 24

May 2
Oct 31

Apr 24

Apr 30

Sep 6
Oct 29

Apr 28

Oct 28

Oct 27

Jan 26

Apr 26

Nov 1

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 29 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

26. What is your primary area of interest?

FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
24%

Currencies
0%
Fixed Income Economics
7% 54%
Equities
15%

Comments:

John Augustine, Chief Investment Officer, Huntington Bank: Trifecta
of central bank dovishness over the past week from Fed, BoJ and ECB. Risk
assets and copper react favorably.

Jim Bianco, President, Bianco Research: The Trump trade is being
driven by a massive reduction in regulation.

Peter Boockvar, Chief Market Analyst, The Lindsey Group: Markets
are way too nonchalant with the impact of quantitative tightening.

Robert Brusca, Chief Economist, Fact and Opinion Economics: The
economy is looking increasingly challenged. The 'Trump bubble' in the eco-
data has largely dissipated but stocks are still buoyant. Inflation is not
catching on. Wages do not have traction. Consumer spending is looking less
reliable. The auto sector has some real trouble. The situation in Washington
is as bad as it has ever been - a real confidence killer.

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 30 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

I support and applaud Trump's tackling of fair trade as an issue. But the
Republicans are so divided and without a clue on what to do elsewhere. It is
very damaging FED
to seeSURVEY
them fail so completely on health care. It makes me
wonder if theyApril 30,
will be able to reach compromises on other key issues.

Some are full of ideology and others pragmatically know that their people
(ie VOTERS!) want some sort of health care LIKE Obamacare but more
affordable. The Republican leadership seems to have no plan to try to
deliver such a thing. And that has created an impasse. This is a very hard
thing to watch. There is no creativity at all. Trump is not sophisticated
about these things and the Republican deal-makers have been ham-
handed. Good Grief!

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research, Renaissance Macro
Research: While the Trump trade has evaporated in many respects, we
think the continued weakness in the USD is something both the White
House and Fed welcome. The dollar has weakened for a couple of reasons.
First, global growth has strengthened and central banks overseas have
converged with the Fed to some extent. Second, the rally in the Mexican
peso especially suggests much of the protectionist rhetoric during the
campaign was just that, rhetoric not policy.

Robert Fry, Chief Economist, Robert Fry Economics LLC: The Fed
needs to shift its priority from raising short-term rates to shrinking its
balance sheet. This would allow long-term bond yields to better reflect
market forces, which, in turn, would allow investors in real and financial
assets to better evaluate investments and, through the slope of the yield
curve, would provide the Fed with guidance for setting short-term rates.

Kevin Giddis, Head of Fixed Income Capital Markets, Raymond
James Financial: In the absence of a potential announcement about
adjusting the size of the Fed's balance sheet, they should take the rest of
the calendar year off, because until Washington gets its act together, the
FOMC has taken this as far as it can.

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 31 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

Stuart Hoffman, Senior Economic Advisor, PNC Financial: Economists
calling for a recession in the next year are seeing ghosts! They need an
exorcism. FED SURVEY
April 30,
Constance Hunter, Chief Economist, KPMG LLP: The economy is in the
8th inning. Labor is becoming tighter, which should spur more investment
into labor saving technology. Nevertheless, I expect we tip into a mild
business cycle recession sometime in late 2018 or mid 2019.

Kurt Karl, Chief Economist, Swiss Re: The Fed hiking cycle will likely be
driven by asset inflation as well as consumer inflation.

John Kattar, Chief Investment Officer, Ardent Asset Management:
Since Congress can't seem to get much done, attention will refocus on the
Fed. That, combined with Yellen's reluctance to play bad cop if she's not
going to be reappointed anyway, suggests the Fed will not rock the boat.
We'll get one more hike in December and that may be it. The Fed will not
deliver on its promise to unwind the balance sheet.

Ed Keon, Portfolio Manager, Quantitative Management Associates:
Transitioning monetary policy from the lowest rates in human history to
"normal," and defining what normal is today, will be a tremendous
intellectual and policy challenge, whoever sits in the Fed Chair and on the
Board.

Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist, National Retail Federation: It is
difficult to see through the fog around tax reform, infrastructure spending
and rollback of regulations. I believe it is likely to occur but expectations
regarding spurring economic growth in 2018 are modest.
Subodh Kumar, President, Subodh Kumar & Associates: We expect
momentum behavior as unlikely to be the future elixir that consensus
appears to favor. We espouse diversification, including precious metals. In
capital market exposure geographically, in asset class and among
companies alike, the key is selectivity based on balance sheet and operating
strength.

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 32 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

There appears performance risk in the erstwhile consensus complacency
about long fixed income, leverage and low volatility. Political tensions
FED SURVEY
appear both internally in many regions, in geopolitics and not least over
trade. April 30,

Contrary to the hyperbole of recent years, the elixir for investment
outperformance has not been found nor does it seem to lie in reliance on
momentum nor in hedge funds. Reducing Fed ease could boost the U.S
dollar even as trade tensions rise.

In Fixed income, which we underweight, we would tilt exposure to short to
medium-term U.S. dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar quality. We
have also underweight junk and emerging country fixed income - both
apparently consensus favorites.

In equities, Financials, Info. Tech. and Industrials are key with Energy
offering restructuring opportunity. Materials offer restructuring opportunity
as well as precious metals diversification. We underweight Healthcare and
Consumer areas as insufficiently restructured.

Thom Melcher, Managing Executive, Investments and Chief
Investment Officer, PNC Asset Management Group: Despite the list of
potential worries and the elevated valuations in the equity market, we
believe the market will continue to grind higher as interest rates drift higher
over the next 12-18 months.

Rob Morgan, Chief Investment Officer, Sandy Spring Trust: The July
Fed meeting will be a snooze-fest. In September, the committee will kick
off the balance sheet reduction, and in December they'll have a rate hike.

Joel Naroff, President, Naroff Economic Advisors: The chaos over
repealing the ACA means some type of tax cut, especially a personal tax
cut, is necessary if the Republicans are to show that they can govern. That
should come by the end of the year, even if it is much less than expected.

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 33 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

James Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist, The Leuthold Group: I
think weakness in the U.S. dollar may significantly impact Fed policy and
FED SURVEY
the financial markets in the balance of this year. A break southward from
April 30,
its 30-month trading range would surprise most, boost commodity prices,
including crude oil prices, and aggravate overall price pressures within the
U.S.. If this happens when wage inflation finally rises above 3%, inflation
anxieties could worsen and pressure on the Fed to speed its exit could
intensify.

Lynn Reaser, Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene University: Two
major disconnects currently exist. Stocks suggest economic strength, while
bonds indicate subdued growth. Business confidence remains strong, while
economic data is choppy. The Fed must decide who is right.

John Roberts, Director of Research, Hilliard Lyons: Strong earnings
are "trumping" (pun intended) all other news currently. Investors are
ignoring virtually everything due to earnings results that are not only solid,
but generally exceeding results. Our worry continues to be what happens
when earnings growth slows and/or fails to meet/exceed expectations.
With valuations well above the peak in '07, risks are high, although we are
not calling for a near-term pullback. We continue to stress to our clients
that investors need to be cognizant of the risk of high valuations.

Chris Rupkey, Chief Financial Economist, MUFG: The outlook may be
uncertain for the economy, but the interest rates are still going up to
normal come hell or high water or with or without Yellen. In a new
interesting twist, Yellen is more hawkish than those Fed officials who are
waiting to see if inflation rises before contemplating more rate hikes. Go
figure.

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 34 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

John Ryding, Chief Economist, RDQ Economics: The election of Donald
Trump was supposed to take some of the burden off the Fed with the hope
that tax policyFED SURVEY reform would boost growth, allowing the Fed
and regulatory
to renormalizeApril 30,
policy at a faster pace. Six months into the administration
and the attempts to reform Obamacare have fallen flat and tax reform is at
risk.

Richard I Sichel, Senior Investment Strategist, The Philadelphia
Trust Company: Optimism should still reign as everyone wants to improve
the tax system and move ahead on infrastructure.

Allen Sinai, Chief Global Economist and Strategist, Decision
Economics: The U.S. economy looks great -- increasing growth and
continuing low inflation with quiet interest rates spells green light for
stocks.

Richard D. Steinberg, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Steinberg
Global Asset Management: The resilience to political noise has set the
stock market up for the chance of a "less worse" surprise on the upside,
which may indicate a peak in index price for the year. Specifically, if a
watered-down tax bill is achieved, it may be viewed as better than nothing.

Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist, Wells Fargo
Securities: The July FOMC meeting is expected to be a snooze fest.
Although, except for economists, they all probably appear to be that way.

As for the greatest risk to the economy today, it is essentially anything that
would spook investors, businesses owners and consumers. That could be a
geopolitical event or policy mistake. The greatest risk we currently see
would be Congress failing to get a budget or continuing resolution done and
risking a repeat of the debt ceiling debacle.

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 35 of 36
FED SURVEY
July 25, 2017

Scott Wren, Senior Global Equity Strategist, Wells Fargo Investment
Institute: In reference to one of the survey questions, we have not and do
FED
not believe the stockSURVEY
market is expecting much out of Washington any time
April to
soon. We continue 30,
believe headwinds in the second half of 2017 include
stretched valuations, a Fed rate hike cycle that is a negative for multiples
and concerns that a (finally) tighter labor market will lead to wage gains
with negative effects on corporate margins late in 2017 and in 2018.

The stock market is paying attention to what the Fed is hinting about
interest rates in 2018, not 2017. The cycle is not over but we see stocks
5.5% to 7.5% lower than current levels at year-end. There is a good
chance, based on our preliminary work, that the S&P 500 will be higher at
year-end 2018 than current levels.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics: Asset markets are
very highly priced and investors are complacent. The pre-conditions for a
significant correction in markets are coming into place.

CNBC Fed Survey – July 25, 2017
Page 36 of 36