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RESEARCH

WEEKLY
COMMODITY REPORT
Base Metals Gain On Equity Market Sentiments!

09th Aug 2010 to 14th Aug 2010
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Weekly Report Commodity
09th Aug Weekly Commodity
to 14th Aug 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

ECONOMIC DATA

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Mon Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey
Aug 9

Tue 8:30am USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 0.3% 2.8%
Aug 10
8:30am USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.5% -1.3%

10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.6 44.7

10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.5%

2:15pm USD FOMC Statement

2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%

Wed 8:30am USD Trade Balance -42.0B -42.3B
Aug 11
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.8M

2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -167.6B -68.4B

Thu 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 465K 479K
Aug 12
8:30am USD Import Prices m/m 0.4% -1.3%

10:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks

10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 29B

Fri 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
Aug 13
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.1%

8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -0.5%

8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.2% -0.1%

9:55am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 69.4 67.8

9:55am USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%

10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.1%

11:30am USD FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks

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Weekly Report Commodity
09th Aug Weekly Commodity
to 14th Aug 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Fundamental Market Overview

“US GOLD ENDS UP U.S. gold futures ended higher on Friday for an eighth straight session, after a disappointing
ON SAFE-HAVEN nonfarm payrolls report fueled double-dip recession worries, increasing the metal's appeal as a safe
BIDS AFTER JOBS haven. COMEX December gold futures settled up $6 at $1,205.30 an ounce on the COMEX division
DATA ” of the NYMEX. Range $1,194.50 to $1,213.30 an ounce. Gold accelerated gains and Wall Street
sank after government data showed U.S. private employers added fewer workers to their payrolls in
July than expected. Recent weak economic data suggested interest rate will be low for a while, which is very good for the
precious metals relative to other assets. The usual inverse relationship between gold and the dollar has shown signs of
resurgence, after the link loosened earlier this year as extreme risk aversion benefited both assets. COMEX estimated final
volume at a modest 97,670 lots.

Crude oil prices fell a third straight day on Friday, weighed down by a weak U.S. jobs report that
“OIL SETTLES also pulled Wall Street lower. But the dollar's broad slump and weakness against the euro
LOWER A THIRD tempered oil's losses, and prices managed to settle above $80 a barrel, a higher finish versus a
DAY ON JOBS week ago. U.S. crude for September delivery fell $1.31 or 1.6 percent to settle at $80.70 a barrel,
SLUMP ” having traded from $80.04 to $82.67. Prices, which settled on Tuesday at a three-month high
above $82, finished the week up $1.75, or 2.21 percent from last Friday's $78.95 settlement.
Crude hit as high as $82.97 a barrel on Wednesday the highest since May 4 before ending that session lower following a
government report showed a sharp rise in gasoline and distillate stocks last week. On Friday, front-month ICE Brent crude fell
$1.45 to settle at $80.16 a barrel. U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell 131,000 in July, declining for the second straight month, the Labor
Department said on Friday. Employers did add 71,000 private sector jobs, but that was less than the expected gain of 90,000.
The total job losses exceeded the 65,000 drop. The dollar approached a 15-year low against the yen and a three-month low
against the euro after the jobs data came out on Friday. U.S stocks fell after the nonfarm payroll report, with consumer stocks
among the biggest losers.

“U.S. COPPER U.S. copper futures ended lower on Friday, after data showing the U.S. economy shed twice as
many jobs as expected revived concerns about a slower economic recovery. Copper for
SETTLES LOWER ON
September delivery eased 1.05 cents to finish at $3.3430 per lb on the COMEX metals division of
SOFT EMPLOYMENT
the New York Mercantile Exchange. Range from $3.3250 to $3.38. Earlier this week, the key
DATA ”
September contract hit a three-month peak at $3.4105. COMEX estimated copper futures volume
at 36,792 lots. Final volume on Thursday hit 41,210 lots. Open interest rose 267 lots to 145,441
contracts open as of Aug 5. Copper losses fueled by Labor Dept report showing U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell 131,000 in July,
declining for the second straight month. Private-sector job growth of 71,000 was below expectations of 90,000. Copper losses
padded by market perceptions of stronger near-term demand prospects. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer,
expects China copper demand to grow at 8 percent this year from last year, and at a similar pace next year. Copper inventories
in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2 percent to 106,368 tonnes from a week earlier. London
Metal Exchange (LME) copper warehouse stocks fell by 450 tonnes to 412,625 tonnes. COMEX copper inventories dropped
392 short tons to 99,970 short tons as of Thursday. LME copper for three-month delivery ended down $30 at $7,370 a tonne.

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Weekly Report Commodity
09th Aug Weekly Commodity
to 14th Aug 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Technical Analysis

GOLD
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

GOLD 1308 1271 1235 1220 1209 1183 1161 1125 1088

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

COMEX Gold is in an upward consolidation phase. Last week For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if
COMEX Gold sustained above the level of 1175$. In the coming COMEX Gold sustains above 1175$ an ounce by keeping the strict
week 1145$/ 1125$ an ounce will act as a good support in stop losses.
COMEX Gold, below 1145$/1150$ an ounce it can slightly correct
Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be
and could test the levels of 1125 $ an ounce and above 1220$ an
ounce it can touch the level of 1240$ /1260$. 1150$ and 1120$.
Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be
1230$ and 1250$
Major support in MCX Gold is 17500 and 16900
Major resistance in MCX Gold is 18200 and 18600
Major resistance in MCX Gold is 18200 and 18600

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Weekly Report Commodity
09th Aug Weekly Commodity
to 14th Aug 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

SILVER
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

SILVER 2055 1983 1910 1878 1838 1806 1765 1693 1620

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

COMEX Silver is in an upward consolidation phase. Last week For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy if
COMEX Silver break the level of 1850$ but did not closed above Silver sustains below the level of 1880$/1850$ an ounce, and
that. For the upcoming week 1740$ and 1700$ are crucial below 1700$ an ounce it can further correct and above 1900$ it
supports and 1890 $ is a crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In the can move slightly upward. Trade by keeping the proper stop
coming week if COMEX Silver fails to sustain above 1850$/ 1880$ losses.
then below 1700$ an ounce it can come slightly downward and
might test the level of 1660$ and 1620$ an ounce. Above 1880$
/1900$ it can move slightly upward.

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Weekly Report Commodity
09th Aug Weekly Commodity
to 14th Aug 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

CRUDE OIL
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

CRUDE 93.25 89.11 84.97 82.84 80.83 78.70 76.69 72.55 68.41

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

NYMEX Crude is consolidating on charts. Last week crude oil For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if
break the level of 80$ and made a weekly close above that. For the NYMEX Crude sustain above the level of 80$ a barrel by keeping
coming week 74$ will act as major supports and 83$ a barrel will the proper stop loss.
be a major resistance. Crude is in consolidation phase and in the
coming week if Crude sustains below 74 $ a barrel then it can
further go downward. And above 83 $ a barrel if NYMEX Crude
sustains then a slight upward rally can come.

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Weekly Report Commodity
09th Aug Weekly Commodity
to 14th Aug 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

COPPER
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

COPPER 367.85 357.00 346.05 340.20 335.20 329.30 324.30 313.40 302.50

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

Last week COMEX Copper took resistance of its important level of For the upcoming week 342 and 356 will act as major resistance
342, and a two week long rally came to a halt. COMEX Copper and 302 and 286 will act as major supports. For MCX Copper
was not able to sustain near to its high, and at the end of the week major resistance would be 349 and 359 and supports would be
closed near to its low. For the next week 342 level will act as a found at 327 and 314.
crucial resistance if COMEX Copper breaks it and sustains above it
we can see Copper near 354 level. Traders should use the strategy
of buy on lower levels if COMEX Copper sustains above the level of
330. Next week if COMEX Copper sustains above 342 we can see
Copper near 354 level.

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Weekly Report Commodity
09th Aug Weekly Commodity
to 14th Aug 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

GOLD 18925.00 18703.33 18451.67 17978.33 17726.67 17253.33 17001.67

SILVER 29755.00 29693.67 29410.33 29065.67 28782.33 28437.67 28154.33

COPPER 354.65 349.80 345.25 341.85 337.30 333.90 329.35

CRUDE 3979.00 3898.33 3805.67 3732.33 3639.67 3566.33 3473.67

NATURAL GAS 252.70 240.43 224.27 215.83 199.67 191.23 175.07

LEAD 107.55 106.38 102.97 99.38 95.97 92.38 88.97

ZINC 102.40 101.25 99.30 96.20 94.25 91.15 89.20

NICKEL 1064.60 1054.57 1036.73 1008.87 991.03 963.17 945.33

ALUMINUM 105.50 104.73 102.97 101.43 99.67 98.13 96.37

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Weekly Report Commodity
09th Aug Weekly Commodity
to 14th Aug 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

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