INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK 2015R03EN

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................................... 5
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE........................................................................ 6
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT TYPES....................................................................................................................... 8
FRAMEWORK DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLINE.................................................................................................. 9

STAGE 1- IDENTIFYING SCOPE, VARIABLES, RISKS AND DATA............................................................. 11

ESTABLISHING ASSESSMENT SCOPE AND AIMS........................................................................................... 12
DEFINING KEY TASKS AND DELIVERY PLAN................................................................................................ 14
EARLY STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND ESTABLISHING ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES...... 15
ASSESSING VULNERABILITY............................................................................................................................... 16
Selecting assets and locations for inclusion................................................................................................................................... 17
Assessing exposure......................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Assessing sensitivity........................................................................................................................................................................ 18
Calculating vulnerability levels...................................................................................................................................................... 19
ASSESSING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY...................................................................................................................... 20
ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS AND SCENARIOS............................................................. 22
Geographical location.................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Using existing climate change projections data and evidence to determine future conditions...................................................... 23
Developing climate change scenarios and projections.................................................................................................................. 26
Using climate change projections information............................................................................................................................... 26

STAGE 2 - ASSESSING AND PRIORITISING RISKS........................................................................................... 27

ASSESSING IMPACT PROBABILITY.................................................................................................................... 28
ASSESSING IMPACT SEVERITY............................................................................................................................ 29
ESTABLISHING RISK SCORES AND A RISK REGISTER................................................................................. 30

STAGE 3 - IDENTIFYING AND SELECTING ADAPTATION RESPONSES AND STRATEGIES........... 31

IDENTIFICATION OF ADAPTATION RESPONSES AND OPPORTUNITIES................................................. 32
SELECTION AND PRIORITISATION OF ADAPTATION RESPONSES AND OPPORTUNITIES................ 40
Cost-Benefit Analysis...................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Multi-Criteria Analysis................................................................................................................................................................... 43
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN OR STRATEGY....................................................... 45

STAGE 4- INTEGRATING FINDINGS INTO DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES...................................... 49

INCORPORATING RECOMMENDATIONS AND REQUIREMENTS INTO PROGRAMMES,
PROCESSES AND INVESTMENTS......................................................................................................................... 50
EDUCATION, AWARENESS AND TRAINING...................................................................................................... 52
EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION............................................................................................................................. 53
Communicating with stakeholders and decision-makers............................................................................................................... 53
Communicating with users of the network...................................................................................................................................... 56
DEVELOPING A BUSINESS CASE......................................................................................................................... 57
FUTURE PLANNING AND MONITORING........................................................................................................... 61
2015R03EN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK

SYNTHESIS...................................................................................................................................................................... 62
STAGE 1........................................................................................................................................................................ 64
Stage 1 - Scenario Example............................................................................................................................................................ 64
STAGE 2........................................................................................................................................................................ 66
Stage 2 - Scenario Example............................................................................................................................................................ 66
STAGE 3........................................................................................................................................................................ 67
STAGE 4........................................................................................................................................................................ 67
APPENDIX A - SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND........................................................................................................ 69
APPENDIX B - EXAMPLES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORKS,
TOOLS AND GUIDANCE.............................................................................................................................................. 72
APPENDIX C - POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.................................................................... 77
APPENDIX D - CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK WORK BOOK................................. 80
APPENDIX E - CONSULTATION QUESTIONS AND RESPONSES.................................................................. 80