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Research Summary Materials Prognosis

Predicting Remaining Life by


Fusing the Physics of Failure
Modeling with Diagnostics
G.J. Kacprzynski, A. Sarlashkar, M.J. Roemer, A. Hess, and W. Hardman

Editors Note: Presentation of this paper is supported by the Air


Force Research Laboratory, under agreement number F33615- and validating prognostic technologies both in terms of long-term capability
01-D-5801. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and
distribute reprints for governmental purposes notwithstanding any for various mechanical components prediction (asset management) and
copyright notation thereon. The views and conclusions contained
herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as and associated sub-systems. One such near-term damage minimization (fault
necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements,
either expressed or implied, of the Air Force Research Laboratory
program funded multiple run-to-failure/ accommodation).
or the U.S. Government. seeded fault (RTF/SF) tests on the During the RTF/SF testing, an IGB
H-60 helicopter intermediate gearbox spiral bevel pinion was seeded with two
Technology that enables failure pre- (IGB) pinion gear at the Helicopter electrical discharge machine (EDM)
diction of critical machine components Transmission Test Facility (HTTF) in notches (heel and toe) on the drive
(prognostics) has the potential to Patuxent River, Maryland (Figure 1). side of one of the pinion gear teeth
significantly reduce maintenance costs Run-to-failure/seeded fault results to artificially accelerate tooth root
and increase availability and safety. were used to provide realistic indications cracking. A testing torque profile was
This article summarizes a research of state awareness based on vibration designed to load the gearbox at 2,711
effort funded through the U.S. Defense feature health indicators and non- N-m (rated torque for unlimited life)
Advanced Research Projects Agency destructive evaluations related to and 3,173 N-m (special-ops rating with
and Naval Air System Command aimed actual material damage levels, identify limited life). Several accelerometers
at enhancing prognostic accuracy sensitivities and uncertainties in the were placed on the gearbox with a health
through more advanced physics-of- effects of material properties and and usage monitoring system (HUMS)
failure modeling and intelligent utiliza- manufacturing defects on the component used to generate the vibration features
tion of relevant diagnostic information. capacity, and provide invaluable calibra- indicative of gear duress. Microscopic
H-60 helicopter gear is used as a tion information to the prognostic optical inspection of the notches was
case study to introduce both stochastic model at various times in the life of the performed at 2-h intervals in addition to
sub-zone crack initiation and three- component so that it can be evaluated sonic thermography to detect the earliest
dimensional fracture mechanics lifing
models along with adaptive model Figure 1. An H-60 IGB
updating techniques for tuning key gearbox and spiral bevel
pinion gear.
failure mode variables at a local
material/damage site based on fused
vibration features. The overall prognos-
tic scheme is aimed at minimizing inher- IGB
ent modeling and operational uncertain- Output
IGB Input Gear (31T)
ties via sensed system measurements Pinion (25T)
that evolve as damage progresses.
INTRODUCTION 60
Figure 2. Hardness variability.
St-T
In both military and commercial St-L
InB-L
applications, inaccurate assessments of 55 In-L
the current health state and predicted Rein-L

future capability of mechanical systems


HRC

can result in decisions that may under- 50

utilize assets with remaining capability


or potentially overtax assets that are
45
on the verge of failure. To this end,
the U.S. Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency (DARPA) has initiated 40
several programs aimed at improving 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Distance from Surface (mm)
asset utilization decisions by developing

2004 March JOM 29


PROGNOSTIC MODEL FRAMEWORK to more accurate prognostic technolo-
gies. Details on the prognostic model
Prognostic model types can range from purely statistical or data-driven methodologies
(i.e., historical failure rates and time-series predictions) to high-fidelity models that framework can be found in the sidebar.
encapsulate failure mechanisms and their progression. This spectrum of prognostics
BUILDING A
is covered in detail elsewhere.3 The availability of established vibration-based crack
detection features, controlled test conditions, sensitive, periodic inspections, and the desire PHYSICS MODEL
for the tightest possible prognostic confidence bounds under this program warranted the
The principal failure mode considered
most technically comprehensive and knowledge-rich prognostic model currently possible.
This model fits within a generic prognostic module architecture shown in Figure A, in this work was a single fatigue crack
configured for components that fail via fatigue mechanisms. propagating from the EDM notch in the
This comprehensive approach allows for the integration of material-level models, fillet region for a single tooth. This was
system-level data/information fusion algorithms, and adaptive modeling techniques for an important failure mode to consider
tuning key failure mode variables at a local material/damage site. The output failure rate
because the separation of a single tooth
prediction is developed within a probabilistic framework to directly identify confidence
bounds associated with the specific component failure mode progression. By providing can lead to complete loss of power
continuous updates/adjustments to the critical parameters used by the probabilistic transmission under certain conditions. It
fatigue/damage models based on observing system-level measurements, more accurate was assumed that the engineering-size
failure rate predictions are possible throughout the life of the component. crack that would form at the EDM
notch due to cyclic loading would
behave similarly to an in-service crack
in terms of both its impact on the sensed
vibration signature as well as its crack-
propagation characteristics.
To determine with a particular
confidence level the number of cycles
until a tooth root crack at one of the
EDM notches has initiated to the point
that linear elastic fracture mechanics
(LEFM) would apply, the following
information had to be generated:
Loading profile of a pinion tooth
throughout a complete load cycle
with the mating gear
Plastic zone size estimation for
each notch
Material properties associated with
the material fatigue life and linear
Figure A. The framework for model-based prognostics.
elastic fracture mechanics
possible cracks. Two complete tests were submitted by the authors in Reference Gleason Corporation, with the permis-
performed prior to the development of 2 with additions addressing gear failure sion of Sikorsky Inc., provided Impact
the prognostic model described herein. modes and failure mode transitions, Technologies with the IGB pinion
The first test initiated a crack at the case hardening considerations, and geometry and associated load definition
heel notch location in approximately 15 how material science can contribute that represented the pinions load history
loading h (23 elapsed h) at 2,711 N-m,
which propagated to 2.16 cm in another
Elastic stress Sub-zones where local
6 loading h under 3,173 N-m. For the profile strain is theory applied to
second specimen, a load of 3,173 N-m calculate initiation lives at
was maintained across the gearbox for Sub-zone sampled points
propagation
the duration of the test. Similar to test rate = d/(N2-N1)
#1, a crack at the heel notch initiated in
Notch-affected
approximately 2.5 loading h with full region Sampled points 1 and
propagation in another 3 loading h. 2 with initiation lives of
1 cm
Throughout this article, various N1 and N2 cycles
EDM Notch Depth
additional test results will be revealed Sub-zone size d
when comparisons or explanations of Definition of initial crack size ai
the prognostic model developed are
Initial crack size ai is defined as the location where crack
required. More detail on the testing and propagation rate da/dN is greater than the sub-zone propagation rate
test results can be found in Reference 1
and in the article by W. Hardman in this Figure 3. A sub-zone approach used for crack initiation.
issue. The material presented herein
is an extension of a technical paper

30 JOM March 2004


Figure 5. A crack front and crack length metric.

Figure 6. An observed crack surface tra-


Figure 4. A computed surface trajectory. jectory view from the heel of the tooth.

through a complete engagement with analysis. Figure 2 shows a representa- properties within the case-hardened
the mating gear. Impact Technologies tive hardness variation.4 Another conse- layer.
used this data to perform mesh sensitiv- quence of case hardening is the presence Compressive stress distribution
ity studies and generate a full three- of compressive residual stresses within within the case-hardened layer
dimensional (3-D) dynamic stress the case.4 These compressive stresses and beyond.
analysis using ANSYS. Model data could be as high as 300 MPa and vary Reliable small crack growth data
provided by Gleason Corporation was within the case. Further, the compressive within the case-hardened layer.
in the form of three pinion teeth defined stress variation within the case may or Material fatigue and fracture
about the global origin of the pinion, may not be monotonic. properties for the core.
and a load history, which encompassed Thus, the accurate prognostics for Except for the first listed item,
one tooth having load applied from zero case-hardened gears require the follow- statistical distributions rather than
to a maximum and then unloaded back ing information: average values are essential to perform
to zero (R ratio of 0 where R = minimum Accurate definition of 3-D stress probabilistic life predictions.
stress/maximum stress). field throughout the gear.
FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION
A typical failure scenario would The extent of the case-hardened
involve a formation and propagation layer and the variation of material For predicting the total fatigue life of
of a crack in the tooth fillet region. fatigue and fracture mechanics a component with notches, strain-life
The primary stress field in this area
is nominally uniaxial and is oriented Figure 7. A post-
along the fillet. Therefore, the initial mortem analysis
Test 1.
crack formation and propagation would
be perpendicular to the base fillet. How-
ever, computational fracture mechanics
models show that once the cracks grow
past the field of influence of the fillet,
the crack trajectory is influenced by the
rim design for the gears.4
It is important to consider that gears
can be either through hardened or case
hardened. Unlike through-hardened
gears, case-hardened gears can have a
hardened case of up to 2.5 mm with A vs. N Cures (IGB pinion)
Figure 8. Model-based crack
hardness in the range 6163 Rc. The 20 length vs. cycles.
core is significantly lower in hardness.
One commonly followed convention is 18
to define case thickness as the distance 15
Crack Length - a (mm)

from the surface where the hardness falls


to 50 Rc. This combination of hard case 13

and tough core offers a good compromise 10


between high surface durability/fatigue as Calculated a vs. N (3,173 N-m)
7
well as reliable mechanical performance +1 Sigma Bound
-1 Sigma Bound
under potential dynamic gear loading. a vs. N Refit for 2,983 N-m
5 a vs. N Refit for 2,847 N-m
a vs. N Refit for 2,711 N-m
However, the presence of the hardened Critical Crack Length (CCL)
3 +1 Sigma CCL Bound
case leads to a continuous variation of -1 Sigma CCL Bound
fatigue and fracture properties within 0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
the case and therefore requires special Number of Load Cycles - N x 106
considerations when performing life

2004 March JOM 31


Table I. Predictions vs. Ground Truth the EDM notch to low-cycle fatigue.
The total strain amplitude in the EDM
Crack Initiation and Crack Propagation to Critical notch is defined as the summation of
Propagation to 0.0191 mm Crack Length (20.96 mm)
the elastic and plastic strain amplitudes,
Test 1 Test 2 Test 1 Test 2 which can be expressed as shown
in Equation 1. 7 Neubers rule was
Torque (N-m) 2,711 3,173 3,173 3,173
Predicted initiation time (h) 11.09 2.38 employed to convert the elastically
Predicted propagation time 4.85 4.85 calculated stresses from the linear-
(cycles) elastic finite element (FE) model to true
Standard deviation 1.64 0.36 1.13 1.13
Predicted initiation time 2,738,786.40 587,764.80 1,197,190.00 1,197,190.00 stress and true strain values.6
(cycles) $E 4OTAL SaF
B
C
Estimated time to initiation (h) 15.00 2.50


%
 . F EaF . F


(1)
Observed time to failure (h) 6.00 3.00 

PLASTIC
ELASTIC
Estimated time to initiation 3,704,400 617,400
(cycles) Equation 1 expresses the number
Observed time to failure 1,481,760 740,880 of reversals 2Nf (twice the number of
(cycles)
Difference (# St. Devs.) 2.38 0.33 1.02 1.64 cycles Nf ) to failure as a function of
Percentile 98.00 63.00 82.00 4.20 elastic and plastic strain amplitudes.
The strain-based approach integrated
with a rain-flow counting or similar
Table II. Results vs. Ground TruthTest 2 algorithm permits the treatment of
Mean Time Actual load-sequencing effects in predicting
Elapsed Feature Total Remaining Time component life. For example, in the case
Time Load (N-m) P (Initiation) P (Prop) Indication Pf Prediction Remaining of helicopter gears, different amounts
2h 3,173 0.146 0.004 None 0.0005 5.23 h 3.5 h of material damage will accumulate at
3h 3,173 0.95 0.42 None 0.39 4.23 h 2.5 h different load (torque) levels and will
3.5 h 3,173 1.0 0.05** Yes 0.05 3.1 h** 2h also depend on the sequence in which
5h 3,173 1.0 0.34*** Yes 0.34 0.3 h*** 0.5 h
the torques were varied (i.e., the torque
magnitudes as well as torque profiles
both affect the amount of material
data obtained from tests on uniaxial mechanics principles, the crack will damage).
specimens should not be directly used not propagate. On the contrary, if crack In the case of the EDM notch, the
because they are subjected to uniform initiation is defined as a large crack, plastic term (second right-hand term
strain across the entire test cross section. then the predicted cycles for crack in Equation 1) is the dominant term.
For notched components, there is a propagation could be rather small. Using the plastic term alone, the mean
severe stress gradient within the notch Concisely, the prediction of total fatigue number of cycles to EDM notch crack
region and, therefore, special attention life is greatly influenced by the definition initiation is given by Equation 2.
must be paid to this region by dividing of what constitutes a crack. 

 $E  C
it into sub-zones or ligaments and .F  0LASTIC (2)
CRACK INITIATION   EaF
calculating fatigue life for each zone
independently.5 This approach facilitates Socie et al.5 demonstrated that a crack where f = number of cycles to crack
the definition of crack initiation and initiates when the rate of propagation of initiation; Plastic = plastic strain range;
thereby provides an unambiguous way the crack due to the crack-propagation f = fatigue ductility coefficient; and c
to transition from the crack-initiation mechanism (using principles of fracture = fatigue ductility exponent.
phase to the crack-propagation phase. It mechanics) exceeds that due to the Because strain-life data for AISI
also circumvents an historical dilemma: crack initiation or strain cycle fatigue 9130 was not available, the following
If crack initiation is defined as creation mechanism and is typically on the order data for a low-alloy steel with hardness
of a defect (crack) of arbitrary length of 0.01270.0254 mm. similar to the assumed core hardness
(an engineering size crack has been In the gear tooth, the EDM notch (38 RC/350 HB) of AISI 9130 was
defined to have a length of 0.1 mm to 1 acted as a stress riser leading to high used:8,9 ultimate tensile strength: 1,234
mm), then the associated stress intensity elastic stresses (2,579 MPa at 3,173 MPa; yield strength: 1,178 MPa; elastic
range (K) from the Paris Law (see N-m across the IGB). This high stress modulus: 192 GPa; cyclic strength
Reference 6 and Equation 4) can be (at least in the immediate vicinity of coefficient (K): 1,862 MPa; cyclic
made arbitrarily small or large. If the notch) was in excess of the yield strain hardening exponent (n): 0.14;
the assumed crack size at the end of strength (yield strength = 1,172 MPa) fatigue strength coefficient (f): 1,944
crack initiation is too small, then the of the material and therefore resulted MPa; fatigue strength exponent (b):
associated K at the crack tip will in local plastic cycling. The large 0.1; fatigue ductility coefficient (f):
be smaller than the Kthreshold for the stress range (0374 0 ksi) and the 1.22; fatigue ductility exponent (c):
material (depends on the R ratio) associated large plastic strain range 0.73.
and, therefore, based on the fracture experienced by the gear tooth subjects Applying this data back to the sub-

32 JOM March 2004


10 crack surface, ultimately resulting in
9 1,396,161 degrees-of-freedom at the
12th step. The model was used to
8
Artificial determine stress-intensity factors and
7 Inflection Pt.
crack propagation path where mode I
Feature Magnitude stress-intensity factors were primarily
6

5
Test #2 responsible for the extent of crack
Insp #2
Test #1 Test #2 growth and the ratio between the mode
4 Insp #1 Insp #2
Test #2
II and mode I stress-intensity factors was
3 Insp #1 primarily responsible for the direction
2 Residual Kurtosis Fit
of crack growth.
Residual Kurtosis Data
Residual Pk2Pk x5 Fit
The predicted crack surface and
1
Residual Pk2Pk x5 Data fronts are shown in Figure 4 and Figure
0
0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65
5, along with the vector used in the
Normalized Crack Length crack length calculation. These can
Figure 9. Normalized crack length vs. feature magnitude. be compared to the observed fracture
surface shown in Figures 6 and 7.1
Qualitatively, the surfaces and fronts
zone concept, as one moves away from formed a 3-D LEFM analysis of the are very similar, especially near the
the notch, the number of cycles to crack H-60 pinion gear. As subsequent figures heel end of the tooth. It should be noted
initiation (using the strain-life analysis in this section will illustrate, the resulting that the seeded fault at the toe was not
procedure) at each of these sampled model was very accurate up until a modeled because FE analysis showed
points will increase due to reduced crack length of about 1.27 cm. Beyond that the toe region was not as highly
stress/strain amplitude. For example, this length, significant load-sharing loaded as the heel notch region and
using Figure 3 as a reference, if sampled factors were likely present that were propagation of the toe notch was not
point 1 takes N1 cycles for crack not modeled. expected to influence that of the heel
initiation and sampled point 2 takes The initial FE model gear was meshed notch.
N2 cycles for crack initiation, and the with ten-noded tetrahedral elements The crack propagation model was
distance between the two points is and had a total of 920,379 degrees of applied to determine the cycles required
d, then the rate of crack propagation freedom. The fracture mechanics model to propagate the crack from the ai length
(length increase/load cycle) over this had a total of 13 crack fronts (referred discussed previously to the critical
sub-zone due to initiation is d/(N2-N1). to as steps) to simulate the evolution crack length. During a crack growth
If for a certain sub-zone defined by of the 3-D crack front from the EDM simulation, at each step of propagation
points I and I + 1, the rate of propagation notch. Each of the 13 crack fronts was the direction and extent of crack growth
using the fracture mechanics data (plots subjected to a total of 18 load cases at each point along the crack front had
of da/dN vs. K) is greater than that due simulating instantaneous pinion loads. to be determined.
to the strain-cycle fatigue mechanism, These corresponded to 18 discrete The best crack growth data for 9130
then the distance of this sub-zone from angular positions during the load-unload was used.9 The data consists of Paris
the root of the notch is considered as the cycle for the pinion. As the crack parameters for three different R ratios
length of crack initiation, ai. Note that grew, more elements were required to in both lab air and 121C oil subjected
K will start at a value of 0.0 when the resolve the geometric details of the to predominately plane stress loading.
crack length is zero and will increase
with the crack size. The value ai is taken Distribution on 3h
Figure 10. A graphical rep-
as the initial crack size for the fracture Crack Initiation
resentation of prognostic
module updates.
mechanics study. Therefore, for a given 95%
component, cycles to reach final crack Time
Distribution on
size af = [life in cycles at a distance Crack Propagation
ai from the base of the notch based No Vibration MTTF = 4.23 h
Feature Indications
on strain-cycle fatigue mechanism]
+ [cycles required to propagate a 42% Time
3.5 h
crack from the crack size of ai to af
using fracture mechanics-based cycle 100%
estimation]. Time

CRACK PROPAGATION MTTF = 3.1 h


Indications Present
The remaining unknown to establish Model Calibrated 5%
the failure mode transition point requires Time
a fracture mechanics analysis.
Fracture analysis consultants per-

2004 March JOM 33


The R ratio in the seeded fault tests was from the two tests are provided in Figure
DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION
0.0. Both the analysis and the model 9. Note that residual peak-to-peak was
FUSION
considered the material properties of multiplied by 5 for clarity and that both
the AISI 9310 steel, case hardened to Certain types of vibration features features drop off after an anorm of about
a case hardness of Rc 6064 and core have been found to detect small cracks 0.3 (aactual of 0.381 cm), most likely due
hardness of Rc 3045 to have intrinsic at early stages of crack propagation to load-sharing effects.
Paris parameters of: when supplied with speed, torque, Using the key assumption that the
and time-domain vibration data. Such vibratory feature response as the
n = 3.2C*
features provide valuable information failure progresses from the two tests
= 2.738e-19 (in/cycle)
that, when used properly, can serve is representative of the response for
/(psi*in0.5)n (3)
to calibrate the model-based aspects another test with identical conditions, the
When these values are applied to the of the prognostic module and reduce potential exists to reduce the confidence
Paris Law which states that cumulative uncertainty levels. This means that bounds on the failure prognosis.
load cycles (N) to reach a certain crack tighter confidence bounds can be The total probability of failure at any
size (a) can be found using: calculated for remaining component given time is the combination of two
DA life. independent events: the initiation of a
 #
$+ EFF N
D. (4) Test results shown in Reference 1 crack and the propagation of that crack
have indicated that residual kurtosis and to failure. For independent events, the
Known sources of error were cumu- residual peak to peak (Pk2Pk) features total probability is:
latively applied to this deterministic provided the earliest detection of a gear
Ptotal = P(i) *P(p) (8)
model to create a probabilistic model tooth cracking. Kurtosis of the residual
where input parameters are represented time series is computed based on where P(i) = probability of crack
as statistical variants. In all cases, the residual signal, which is defined initiation (to 0.0191 mm) and (p) =
normal distributions were assumed. as the signal minus the gear mesh probability of propagation to failure
The standard deviation () assumptions frequency (and harmonics) and one (to 20.96 mm).
for these probability density functions shaft modulated side lobe. 10 As already stated, P(p) is a function
are: 
of the model estimated crack length
Load sharing factor: a reduction KURTOSIS 
X M (5) and when fused feature crack length
in loading on the failing gear tooth .S 
estimates are available, the model
as the crack grows due to load The signal peak to peak is computed estimated crack length distribution
sharing on adjacent teeth. = 2% using the residual signal normalized may theoretically be replaced with the
of the stress intensity factor at ai and rectified. feature-based crack length distribution.
to 75% of the stress intensity factor Making use of these crack detection However, for a number of reasons, the
at af was used features in the prognostic model cali- initiation probability was simply set to
Loading uncertainty: a variation bration requires that the following 1 when residual kurtosis exceeded 4 in
of the load definition that could functional mapping be created: this study. Hence, a fundamental link
normally occur during use ( = 5%) was formed between state awareness
[anorm(Fi), (Fi)] (6)
applied to the stress intensity and material capacity.
= f[mag(Fi), torque]
factor
RESULTS
Material properties: C ( = 8%) where:
A
and n ( = 0.8%) A NORM  (7) Table I is a consolidated results table
A CRITICAL
Modeling uncertainty: (0% at showing the time/cycle predictions of
step 0 and 5% at step 12 applied and a = crack length; acritical = critical the individual elements of the prognostic
to Keff) crack length (estimated to be about model with respect to the estimated
Ultimately, the plot in Figure 8 was 12.7 mm); (F i) = uncertainty on time/cycles to crack initiation and
generated illustrating the crack length normalized crack length prediction propagation from the two tests.
for different loading levels vs. cycles (standard deviation) for feature i; and The second to last column in the table
accumulated. mag(Fi) = magnitude of feature i. is the difference between predicted and
This analysis enabled determination In other words, applying a fusion actual in terms of standard deviations.
of the transition point between initiation method such as weighted averaging to The last column is the percentile the
and propagation. The calculated da/dN the magnitude of the vibration features actual point falls on the predicted
rate exceeded the subzone propagation corrected for loading effects can be an distribution. In other words, this number
rate at approximate 0.0191 mm. This alternate means of estimating current is the probability of either crack initiation
distance was divided into six subzones crack length. At the very least, an anorm or propagation to failure the prognostic
and the deterministic calculation of beyond a threshold value can be used model would have predicted at the actual
crack initiation life was found to be to confidently assess that a crack has time/cycles. Clearly the prognostic
approximately 11 h at 2,711 N-m (recall initiated to an engineering length. model distributions contain the ground
test #1 was believed to have initiated The best estimates of the two vibration truth observations while still retaining
crack at approximately 15 h). features vs. normalized crack length relatively tight confidence bounds.

34 JOM March 2004


The scenarios shown in Table II show benefit from a larger population of providing the three-dimensional fracture
how the overall prognostic model would seeded-fault, run-to-failure tests analysis using FRANC.3D.
have functioned had it been running with highly controlled observation
live with raw torque and acceleration of failure progression. References
data for test #2. High-fidelity prognostic models
1. W. Hartman and A. Hess, A USN Strategy for
The point of interest occurs at an for helicopter gears that are capable Mechanical and Propulsion System Prognostics with
elapsed time of 3 h, where the model of predicting remaining life as a Demonstration Results (Paper presented at the AHS
predicts a mean time to failure of 4.23 h function of speed and load are Forum 58, Quebec, Canada, 1113 June 2002).
2. G. Kacprzynski et al., Calibration of Failure
in the absence of any vibration feature achievable. Mechanism-Based Prognosis with Vibratory State
indications (threshold exceedences). Health and usage monitoring Awareness Applied to the H-60 Gearbox, Proceedings
When these indications become avail- system features can be used to of the 2003 IEEE Aerospace Conf., (Piscataway,
NJ: IEEE).
able at 3.5 h (denoted by the ** effectively calibrate physics-of- 3. M. Roemer and G. Kacprzynski, Development of
and *** notations) and the gear had failure based prognostic models Diagnostic and Prognostic Technologies for Aerospace
3.1 h of life remaining, the feature and reduce their intrinsic uncertain- Health Management Applications, Proceedings of
the 2001 IEEE Aerospace Conf., (Piscataway, NJ:
information was used to calibrate ties. IEEE).
the prognostic model by setting the Uncertainty in a variety of factors 4. Rachel E. Cohen, George Krauss, and David K.
P(Initiation) to 1 and restarting the crack ranging from gear geometry/ Matlock, Bending Fatigue Performance of Carburized
4320 Steel, SAE Technical Paper Series #930963
propagation module. This is illustrated contact, gear loads to material (Warrendale, PA: SAE, 1993).
graphically in Figure 10. Note that properties limit the ability of 5. D. Socie, A Procedure for Estimating the Total Fatigue
the variance of the crack propagation prognostic systems to generate Life of Notched and Cracked Members, Engineering
Fracture Mechanics, 11 (1) (1979), pp. 851859.
distribution was also reduced, thereby reliable information. Within these 6. J.A. Bannantine, J.J. Comer, and J.L. Handrock,
improving the overall accuracy of the factors, material properties are Fundamentals of Metals Fatigue Analysis (Upper
prognostic model. a core group that has a rather Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1990).
7. David G. Lewicki, Gear Crack Propagation
dominant impact on life prediction. Path StudiesGuidelines for Ultra-Safe Design,
CONCLUSION
Information such as the statistical NASA/TM2001-211073 (July 2001).
Using system-level observable fea- variation of fatigue and fracture 8. ASM Handbook Volume 19: Fatigue and Fracture
(Materials Park, OH: ASM International, 1996).
tures to orient and update the models properties, as well as compressive 9. L.E. Spievak, P.A. Wawrzynek, and A.R. Ingraffea,
responsible for tracking a components stresses, within the case-hardened Simulating Fatigue Crack Growth in Spiral Bevel
material condition provides a sound layer would be valuable in improv- Gears (M.S. Thesis, School of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Cornell University, August 1999).
approach for improved awareness of ing prognostic accuracy. 10. J. Ma, Energy Operator and Other Demodulation
the current health state. The real-time Approaches to Gear Defect Detection, Proceedings of
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS the 49th Meeting of the Society for Machinery Failure
calibrated model is then also available to
Prevention Technology, (Willowbrook, IL: Vibration
predict future performance over a range The authors thank Andrew Hess Institute Publishing, 1995), pp. 127140.
of potential loads and environmental of Naval Air Systems Command for
conditions. Deployment of calibrated funding this effort as part of a Phase
prognostic tools within a tactical I Small Business Innovation Research G.J. Kacprzynski, A. Sarlashkar, and M.J. Roemer
decision-aiding environment will pro- program as well as William Hardman, are with Impact Technologies LLC. A. Hess and
B. Hardman are with the Naval Surface Warfare
vide intelligent asset management and Leo Fila, and James Larsen (U.S. Center Aircraft Division.
lead to improved readiness and mission Air Force) for data, informational
assurance. support, and feedback. Finally, the For more information, contact G.J. Kacprzynski,
The following conclusions could be authors acknowledge the significant Impact Technologies LLC, 125 Tech Park Drive,
Rochester, New York 14623; (585) 424-1990; fax
reached through this study: contributions of Paul Wawrzynek of (585) 424-1177; e-mail greg.kacprzynski@impact-
Prognostic modeling efforts can Fracture Analysis Consultants for tek.com.

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2004 March JOM 35