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Fusing the Physics of Failure

Modeling with Diagnostics

G.J. Kacprzynski, A. Sarlashkar, M.J. Roemer, A. Hess, and W. Hardman

Force Research Laboratory, under agreement number F33615- and validating prognostic technologies both in terms of long-term capability

01-D-5801. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and

distribute reprints for governmental purposes notwithstanding any for various mechanical components prediction (asset management) and

copyright notation thereon. The views and conclusions contained

herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as and associated sub-systems. One such near-term damage minimization (fault

necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements,

either expressed or implied, of the Air Force Research Laboratory

program funded multiple run-to-failure/ accommodation).

or the U.S. Government. seeded fault (RTF/SF) tests on the During the RTF/SF testing, an IGB

H-60 helicopter intermediate gearbox spiral bevel pinion was seeded with two

Technology that enables failure pre- (IGB) pinion gear at the Helicopter electrical discharge machine (EDM)

diction of critical machine components Transmission Test Facility (HTTF) in notches (heel and toe) on the drive

(prognostics) has the potential to Patuxent River, Maryland (Figure 1). side of one of the pinion gear teeth

significantly reduce maintenance costs Run-to-failure/seeded fault results to artificially accelerate tooth root

and increase availability and safety. were used to provide realistic indications cracking. A testing torque profile was

This article summarizes a research of state awareness based on vibration designed to load the gearbox at 2,711

effort funded through the U.S. Defense feature health indicators and non- N-m (rated torque for unlimited life)

Advanced Research Projects Agency destructive evaluations related to and 3,173 N-m (special-ops rating with

and Naval Air System Command aimed actual material damage levels, identify limited life). Several accelerometers

at enhancing prognostic accuracy sensitivities and uncertainties in the were placed on the gearbox with a health

through more advanced physics-of- effects of material properties and and usage monitoring system (HUMS)

failure modeling and intelligent utiliza- manufacturing defects on the component used to generate the vibration features

tion of relevant diagnostic information. capacity, and provide invaluable calibra- indicative of gear duress. Microscopic

H-60 helicopter gear is used as a tion information to the prognostic optical inspection of the notches was

case study to introduce both stochastic model at various times in the life of the performed at 2-h intervals in addition to

sub-zone crack initiation and three- component so that it can be evaluated sonic thermography to detect the earliest

dimensional fracture mechanics lifing

models along with adaptive model Figure 1. An H-60 IGB

updating techniques for tuning key gearbox and spiral bevel

pinion gear.

failure mode variables at a local

material/damage site based on fused

vibration features. The overall prognos-

tic scheme is aimed at minimizing inher- IGB

ent modeling and operational uncertain- Output

IGB Input Gear (31T)

ties via sensed system measurements Pinion (25T)

that evolve as damage progresses.

INTRODUCTION 60

Figure 2. Hardness variability.

St-T

In both military and commercial St-L

InB-L

applications, inaccurate assessments of 55 In-L

the current health state and predicted Rein-L

HRC

or potentially overtax assets that are

45

on the verge of failure. To this end,

the U.S. Defense Advanced Research

Projects Agency (DARPA) has initiated 40

several programs aimed at improving 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Distance from Surface (mm)

asset utilization decisions by developing

PROGNOSTIC MODEL FRAMEWORK to more accurate prognostic technolo-

gies. Details on the prognostic model

Prognostic model types can range from purely statistical or data-driven methodologies

(i.e., historical failure rates and time-series predictions) to high-fidelity models that framework can be found in the sidebar.

encapsulate failure mechanisms and their progression. This spectrum of prognostics

BUILDING A

is covered in detail elsewhere.3 The availability of established vibration-based crack

detection features, controlled test conditions, sensitive, periodic inspections, and the desire PHYSICS MODEL

for the tightest possible prognostic confidence bounds under this program warranted the

The principal failure mode considered

most technically comprehensive and knowledge-rich prognostic model currently possible.

This model fits within a generic prognostic module architecture shown in Figure A, in this work was a single fatigue crack

configured for components that fail via fatigue mechanisms. propagating from the EDM notch in the

This comprehensive approach allows for the integration of material-level models, fillet region for a single tooth. This was

system-level data/information fusion algorithms, and adaptive modeling techniques for an important failure mode to consider

tuning key failure mode variables at a local material/damage site. The output failure rate

because the separation of a single tooth

prediction is developed within a probabilistic framework to directly identify confidence

bounds associated with the specific component failure mode progression. By providing can lead to complete loss of power

continuous updates/adjustments to the critical parameters used by the probabilistic transmission under certain conditions. It

fatigue/damage models based on observing system-level measurements, more accurate was assumed that the engineering-size

failure rate predictions are possible throughout the life of the component. crack that would form at the EDM

notch due to cyclic loading would

behave similarly to an in-service crack

in terms of both its impact on the sensed

vibration signature as well as its crack-

propagation characteristics.

To determine with a particular

confidence level the number of cycles

until a tooth root crack at one of the

EDM notches has initiated to the point

that linear elastic fracture mechanics

(LEFM) would apply, the following

information had to be generated:

Loading profile of a pinion tooth

throughout a complete load cycle

with the mating gear

Plastic zone size estimation for

each notch

Material properties associated with

the material fatigue life and linear

Figure A. The framework for model-based prognostics.

elastic fracture mechanics

possible cracks. Two complete tests were submitted by the authors in Reference Gleason Corporation, with the permis-

performed prior to the development of 2 with additions addressing gear failure sion of Sikorsky Inc., provided Impact

the prognostic model described herein. modes and failure mode transitions, Technologies with the IGB pinion

The first test initiated a crack at the case hardening considerations, and geometry and associated load definition

heel notch location in approximately 15 how material science can contribute that represented the pinions load history

loading h (23 elapsed h) at 2,711 N-m,

which propagated to 2.16 cm in another

Elastic stress Sub-zones where local

6 loading h under 3,173 N-m. For the profile strain is theory applied to

second specimen, a load of 3,173 N-m calculate initiation lives at

was maintained across the gearbox for Sub-zone sampled points

propagation

the duration of the test. Similar to test rate = d/(N2-N1)

#1, a crack at the heel notch initiated in

Notch-affected

approximately 2.5 loading h with full region Sampled points 1 and

propagation in another 3 loading h. 2 with initiation lives of

1 cm

Throughout this article, various N1 and N2 cycles

EDM Notch Depth

additional test results will be revealed Sub-zone size d

when comparisons or explanations of Definition of initial crack size ai

the prognostic model developed are

Initial crack size ai is defined as the location where crack

required. More detail on the testing and propagation rate da/dN is greater than the sub-zone propagation rate

test results can be found in Reference 1

and in the article by W. Hardman in this Figure 3. A sub-zone approach used for crack initiation.

issue. The material presented herein

is an extension of a technical paper

Figure 5. A crack front and crack length metric.

Figure 4. A computed surface trajectory. jectory view from the heel of the tooth.

through a complete engagement with analysis. Figure 2 shows a representa- properties within the case-hardened

the mating gear. Impact Technologies tive hardness variation.4 Another conse- layer.

used this data to perform mesh sensitiv- quence of case hardening is the presence Compressive stress distribution

ity studies and generate a full three- of compressive residual stresses within within the case-hardened layer

dimensional (3-D) dynamic stress the case.4 These compressive stresses and beyond.

analysis using ANSYS. Model data could be as high as 300 MPa and vary Reliable small crack growth data

provided by Gleason Corporation was within the case. Further, the compressive within the case-hardened layer.

in the form of three pinion teeth defined stress variation within the case may or Material fatigue and fracture

about the global origin of the pinion, may not be monotonic. properties for the core.

and a load history, which encompassed Thus, the accurate prognostics for Except for the first listed item,

one tooth having load applied from zero case-hardened gears require the follow- statistical distributions rather than

to a maximum and then unloaded back ing information: average values are essential to perform

to zero (R ratio of 0 where R = minimum Accurate definition of 3-D stress probabilistic life predictions.

stress/maximum stress). field throughout the gear.

FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION

A typical failure scenario would The extent of the case-hardened

involve a formation and propagation layer and the variation of material For predicting the total fatigue life of

of a crack in the tooth fillet region. fatigue and fracture mechanics a component with notches, strain-life

The primary stress field in this area

is nominally uniaxial and is oriented Figure 7. A post-

along the fillet. Therefore, the initial mortem analysis

Test 1.

crack formation and propagation would

be perpendicular to the base fillet. How-

ever, computational fracture mechanics

models show that once the cracks grow

past the field of influence of the fillet,

the crack trajectory is influenced by the

rim design for the gears.4

It is important to consider that gears

can be either through hardened or case

hardened. Unlike through-hardened

gears, case-hardened gears can have a

hardened case of up to 2.5 mm with A vs. N Cures (IGB pinion)

Figure 8. Model-based crack

hardness in the range 6163 Rc. The 20 length vs. cycles.

core is significantly lower in hardness.

One commonly followed convention is 18

to define case thickness as the distance 15

Crack Length - a (mm)

to 50 Rc. This combination of hard case 13

between high surface durability/fatigue as Calculated a vs. N (3,173 N-m)

7

well as reliable mechanical performance +1 Sigma Bound

-1 Sigma Bound

under potential dynamic gear loading. a vs. N Refit for 2,983 N-m

5 a vs. N Refit for 2,847 N-m

a vs. N Refit for 2,711 N-m

However, the presence of the hardened Critical Crack Length (CCL)

3 +1 Sigma CCL Bound

case leads to a continuous variation of -1 Sigma CCL Bound

fatigue and fracture properties within 0

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

the case and therefore requires special Number of Load Cycles - N x 106

considerations when performing life

Table I. Predictions vs. Ground Truth the EDM notch to low-cycle fatigue.

The total strain amplitude in the EDM

Crack Initiation and Crack Propagation to Critical notch is defined as the summation of

Propagation to 0.0191 mm Crack Length (20.96 mm)

the elastic and plastic strain amplitudes,

Test 1 Test 2 Test 1 Test 2 which can be expressed as shown

in Equation 1. 7 Neubers rule was

Torque (N-m) 2,711 3,173 3,173 3,173

Predicted initiation time (h) 11.09 2.38 employed to convert the elastically

Predicted propagation time 4.85 4.85 calculated stresses from the linear-

(cycles) elastic finite element (FE) model to true

Standard deviation 1.64 0.36 1.13 1.13

Predicted initiation time 2,738,786.40 587,764.80 1,197,190.00 1,197,190.00 stress and true strain values.6

(cycles) $E 4OTAL SaF

B

C

Estimated time to initiation (h) 15.00 2.50

%

. F EaF . F

(1)

Observed time to failure (h) 6.00 3.00

PLASTIC

ELASTIC

Estimated time to initiation 3,704,400 617,400

(cycles) Equation 1 expresses the number

Observed time to failure 1,481,760 740,880 of reversals 2Nf (twice the number of

(cycles)

Difference (# St. Devs.) 2.38 0.33 1.02 1.64 cycles Nf ) to failure as a function of

Percentile 98.00 63.00 82.00 4.20 elastic and plastic strain amplitudes.

The strain-based approach integrated

with a rain-flow counting or similar

Table II. Results vs. Ground TruthTest 2 algorithm permits the treatment of

Mean Time Actual load-sequencing effects in predicting

Elapsed Feature Total Remaining Time component life. For example, in the case

Time Load (N-m) P (Initiation) P (Prop) Indication Pf Prediction Remaining of helicopter gears, different amounts

2h 3,173 0.146 0.004 None 0.0005 5.23 h 3.5 h of material damage will accumulate at

3h 3,173 0.95 0.42 None 0.39 4.23 h 2.5 h different load (torque) levels and will

3.5 h 3,173 1.0 0.05** Yes 0.05 3.1 h** 2h also depend on the sequence in which

5h 3,173 1.0 0.34*** Yes 0.34 0.3 h*** 0.5 h

the torques were varied (i.e., the torque

magnitudes as well as torque profiles

both affect the amount of material

data obtained from tests on uniaxial mechanics principles, the crack will damage).

specimens should not be directly used not propagate. On the contrary, if crack In the case of the EDM notch, the

because they are subjected to uniform initiation is defined as a large crack, plastic term (second right-hand term

strain across the entire test cross section. then the predicted cycles for crack in Equation 1) is the dominant term.

For notched components, there is a propagation could be rather small. Using the plastic term alone, the mean

severe stress gradient within the notch Concisely, the prediction of total fatigue number of cycles to EDM notch crack

region and, therefore, special attention life is greatly influenced by the definition initiation is given by Equation 2.

must be paid to this region by dividing of what constitutes a crack.

$E C

it into sub-zones or ligaments and .F 0LASTIC (2)

CRACK INITIATION EaF

calculating fatigue life for each zone

independently.5 This approach facilitates Socie et al.5 demonstrated that a crack where f = number of cycles to crack

the definition of crack initiation and initiates when the rate of propagation of initiation; Plastic = plastic strain range;

thereby provides an unambiguous way the crack due to the crack-propagation f = fatigue ductility coefficient; and c

to transition from the crack-initiation mechanism (using principles of fracture = fatigue ductility exponent.

phase to the crack-propagation phase. It mechanics) exceeds that due to the Because strain-life data for AISI

also circumvents an historical dilemma: crack initiation or strain cycle fatigue 9130 was not available, the following

If crack initiation is defined as creation mechanism and is typically on the order data for a low-alloy steel with hardness

of a defect (crack) of arbitrary length of 0.01270.0254 mm. similar to the assumed core hardness

(an engineering size crack has been In the gear tooth, the EDM notch (38 RC/350 HB) of AISI 9130 was

defined to have a length of 0.1 mm to 1 acted as a stress riser leading to high used:8,9 ultimate tensile strength: 1,234

mm), then the associated stress intensity elastic stresses (2,579 MPa at 3,173 MPa; yield strength: 1,178 MPa; elastic

range (K) from the Paris Law (see N-m across the IGB). This high stress modulus: 192 GPa; cyclic strength

Reference 6 and Equation 4) can be (at least in the immediate vicinity of coefficient (K): 1,862 MPa; cyclic

made arbitrarily small or large. If the notch) was in excess of the yield strain hardening exponent (n): 0.14;

the assumed crack size at the end of strength (yield strength = 1,172 MPa) fatigue strength coefficient (f): 1,944

crack initiation is too small, then the of the material and therefore resulted MPa; fatigue strength exponent (b):

associated K at the crack tip will in local plastic cycling. The large 0.1; fatigue ductility coefficient (f):

be smaller than the Kthreshold for the stress range (0374 0 ksi) and the 1.22; fatigue ductility exponent (c):

material (depends on the R ratio) associated large plastic strain range 0.73.

and, therefore, based on the fracture experienced by the gear tooth subjects Applying this data back to the sub-

10 crack surface, ultimately resulting in

9 1,396,161 degrees-of-freedom at the

12th step. The model was used to

8

Artificial determine stress-intensity factors and

7 Inflection Pt.

crack propagation path where mode I

Feature Magnitude stress-intensity factors were primarily

6

5

Test #2 responsible for the extent of crack

Insp #2

Test #1 Test #2 growth and the ratio between the mode

4 Insp #1 Insp #2

Test #2

II and mode I stress-intensity factors was

3 Insp #1 primarily responsible for the direction

2 Residual Kurtosis Fit

of crack growth.

Residual Kurtosis Data

Residual Pk2Pk x5 Fit

The predicted crack surface and

1

Residual Pk2Pk x5 Data fronts are shown in Figure 4 and Figure

0

0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65

5, along with the vector used in the

Normalized Crack Length crack length calculation. These can

Figure 9. Normalized crack length vs. feature magnitude. be compared to the observed fracture

surface shown in Figures 6 and 7.1

Qualitatively, the surfaces and fronts

zone concept, as one moves away from formed a 3-D LEFM analysis of the are very similar, especially near the

the notch, the number of cycles to crack H-60 pinion gear. As subsequent figures heel end of the tooth. It should be noted

initiation (using the strain-life analysis in this section will illustrate, the resulting that the seeded fault at the toe was not

procedure) at each of these sampled model was very accurate up until a modeled because FE analysis showed

points will increase due to reduced crack length of about 1.27 cm. Beyond that the toe region was not as highly

stress/strain amplitude. For example, this length, significant load-sharing loaded as the heel notch region and

using Figure 3 as a reference, if sampled factors were likely present that were propagation of the toe notch was not

point 1 takes N1 cycles for crack not modeled. expected to influence that of the heel

initiation and sampled point 2 takes The initial FE model gear was meshed notch.

N2 cycles for crack initiation, and the with ten-noded tetrahedral elements The crack propagation model was

distance between the two points is and had a total of 920,379 degrees of applied to determine the cycles required

d, then the rate of crack propagation freedom. The fracture mechanics model to propagate the crack from the ai length

(length increase/load cycle) over this had a total of 13 crack fronts (referred discussed previously to the critical

sub-zone due to initiation is d/(N2-N1). to as steps) to simulate the evolution crack length. During a crack growth

If for a certain sub-zone defined by of the 3-D crack front from the EDM simulation, at each step of propagation

points I and I + 1, the rate of propagation notch. Each of the 13 crack fronts was the direction and extent of crack growth

using the fracture mechanics data (plots subjected to a total of 18 load cases at each point along the crack front had

of da/dN vs. K) is greater than that due simulating instantaneous pinion loads. to be determined.

to the strain-cycle fatigue mechanism, These corresponded to 18 discrete The best crack growth data for 9130

then the distance of this sub-zone from angular positions during the load-unload was used.9 The data consists of Paris

the root of the notch is considered as the cycle for the pinion. As the crack parameters for three different R ratios

length of crack initiation, ai. Note that grew, more elements were required to in both lab air and 121C oil subjected

K will start at a value of 0.0 when the resolve the geometric details of the to predominately plane stress loading.

crack length is zero and will increase

with the crack size. The value ai is taken Distribution on 3h

Figure 10. A graphical rep-

as the initial crack size for the fracture Crack Initiation

resentation of prognostic

module updates.

mechanics study. Therefore, for a given 95%

component, cycles to reach final crack Time

Distribution on

size af = [life in cycles at a distance Crack Propagation

ai from the base of the notch based No Vibration MTTF = 4.23 h

Feature Indications

on strain-cycle fatigue mechanism]

+ [cycles required to propagate a 42% Time

3.5 h

crack from the crack size of ai to af

using fracture mechanics-based cycle 100%

estimation]. Time

Indications Present

The remaining unknown to establish Model Calibrated 5%

the failure mode transition point requires Time

a fracture mechanics analysis.

Fracture analysis consultants per-

The R ratio in the seeded fault tests was from the two tests are provided in Figure

DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION

0.0. Both the analysis and the model 9. Note that residual peak-to-peak was

FUSION

considered the material properties of multiplied by 5 for clarity and that both

the AISI 9310 steel, case hardened to Certain types of vibration features features drop off after an anorm of about

a case hardness of Rc 6064 and core have been found to detect small cracks 0.3 (aactual of 0.381 cm), most likely due

hardness of Rc 3045 to have intrinsic at early stages of crack propagation to load-sharing effects.

Paris parameters of: when supplied with speed, torque, Using the key assumption that the

and time-domain vibration data. Such vibratory feature response as the

n = 3.2C*

features provide valuable information failure progresses from the two tests

= 2.738e-19 (in/cycle)

that, when used properly, can serve is representative of the response for

/(psi*in0.5)n (3)

to calibrate the model-based aspects another test with identical conditions, the

When these values are applied to the of the prognostic module and reduce potential exists to reduce the confidence

Paris Law which states that cumulative uncertainty levels. This means that bounds on the failure prognosis.

load cycles (N) to reach a certain crack tighter confidence bounds can be The total probability of failure at any

size (a) can be found using: calculated for remaining component given time is the combination of two

DA life. independent events: the initiation of a

#

$+ EFF N

D. (4) Test results shown in Reference 1 crack and the propagation of that crack

have indicated that residual kurtosis and to failure. For independent events, the

Known sources of error were cumu- residual peak to peak (Pk2Pk) features total probability is:

latively applied to this deterministic provided the earliest detection of a gear

Ptotal = P(i) *P(p) (8)

model to create a probabilistic model tooth cracking. Kurtosis of the residual

where input parameters are represented time series is computed based on where P(i) = probability of crack

as statistical variants. In all cases, the residual signal, which is defined initiation (to 0.0191 mm) and (p) =

normal distributions were assumed. as the signal minus the gear mesh probability of propagation to failure

The standard deviation () assumptions frequency (and harmonics) and one (to 20.96 mm).

for these probability density functions shaft modulated side lobe. 10 As already stated, P(p) is a function

are:

of the model estimated crack length

Load sharing factor: a reduction KURTOSIS

X M (5) and when fused feature crack length

in loading on the failing gear tooth .S

estimates are available, the model

as the crack grows due to load The signal peak to peak is computed estimated crack length distribution

sharing on adjacent teeth. = 2% using the residual signal normalized may theoretically be replaced with the

of the stress intensity factor at ai and rectified. feature-based crack length distribution.

to 75% of the stress intensity factor Making use of these crack detection However, for a number of reasons, the

at af was used features in the prognostic model cali- initiation probability was simply set to

Loading uncertainty: a variation bration requires that the following 1 when residual kurtosis exceeded 4 in

of the load definition that could functional mapping be created: this study. Hence, a fundamental link

normally occur during use ( = 5%) was formed between state awareness

[anorm(Fi), (Fi)] (6)

applied to the stress intensity and material capacity.

= f[mag(Fi), torque]

factor

RESULTS

Material properties: C ( = 8%) where:

A

and n ( = 0.8%) A NORM (7) Table I is a consolidated results table

A CRITICAL

Modeling uncertainty: (0% at showing the time/cycle predictions of

step 0 and 5% at step 12 applied and a = crack length; acritical = critical the individual elements of the prognostic

to Keff) crack length (estimated to be about model with respect to the estimated

Ultimately, the plot in Figure 8 was 12.7 mm); (F i) = uncertainty on time/cycles to crack initiation and

generated illustrating the crack length normalized crack length prediction propagation from the two tests.

for different loading levels vs. cycles (standard deviation) for feature i; and The second to last column in the table

accumulated. mag(Fi) = magnitude of feature i. is the difference between predicted and

This analysis enabled determination In other words, applying a fusion actual in terms of standard deviations.

of the transition point between initiation method such as weighted averaging to The last column is the percentile the

and propagation. The calculated da/dN the magnitude of the vibration features actual point falls on the predicted

rate exceeded the subzone propagation corrected for loading effects can be an distribution. In other words, this number

rate at approximate 0.0191 mm. This alternate means of estimating current is the probability of either crack initiation

distance was divided into six subzones crack length. At the very least, an anorm or propagation to failure the prognostic

and the deterministic calculation of beyond a threshold value can be used model would have predicted at the actual

crack initiation life was found to be to confidently assess that a crack has time/cycles. Clearly the prognostic

approximately 11 h at 2,711 N-m (recall initiated to an engineering length. model distributions contain the ground

test #1 was believed to have initiated The best estimates of the two vibration truth observations while still retaining

crack at approximately 15 h). features vs. normalized crack length relatively tight confidence bounds.

The scenarios shown in Table II show benefit from a larger population of providing the three-dimensional fracture

how the overall prognostic model would seeded-fault, run-to-failure tests analysis using FRANC.3D.

have functioned had it been running with highly controlled observation

live with raw torque and acceleration of failure progression. References

data for test #2. High-fidelity prognostic models

1. W. Hartman and A. Hess, A USN Strategy for

The point of interest occurs at an for helicopter gears that are capable Mechanical and Propulsion System Prognostics with

elapsed time of 3 h, where the model of predicting remaining life as a Demonstration Results (Paper presented at the AHS

predicts a mean time to failure of 4.23 h function of speed and load are Forum 58, Quebec, Canada, 1113 June 2002).

2. G. Kacprzynski et al., Calibration of Failure

in the absence of any vibration feature achievable. Mechanism-Based Prognosis with Vibratory State

indications (threshold exceedences). Health and usage monitoring Awareness Applied to the H-60 Gearbox, Proceedings

When these indications become avail- system features can be used to of the 2003 IEEE Aerospace Conf., (Piscataway,

NJ: IEEE).

able at 3.5 h (denoted by the ** effectively calibrate physics-of- 3. M. Roemer and G. Kacprzynski, Development of

and *** notations) and the gear had failure based prognostic models Diagnostic and Prognostic Technologies for Aerospace

3.1 h of life remaining, the feature and reduce their intrinsic uncertain- Health Management Applications, Proceedings of

the 2001 IEEE Aerospace Conf., (Piscataway, NJ:

information was used to calibrate ties. IEEE).

the prognostic model by setting the Uncertainty in a variety of factors 4. Rachel E. Cohen, George Krauss, and David K.

P(Initiation) to 1 and restarting the crack ranging from gear geometry/ Matlock, Bending Fatigue Performance of Carburized

4320 Steel, SAE Technical Paper Series #930963

propagation module. This is illustrated contact, gear loads to material (Warrendale, PA: SAE, 1993).

graphically in Figure 10. Note that properties limit the ability of 5. D. Socie, A Procedure for Estimating the Total Fatigue

the variance of the crack propagation prognostic systems to generate Life of Notched and Cracked Members, Engineering

Fracture Mechanics, 11 (1) (1979), pp. 851859.

distribution was also reduced, thereby reliable information. Within these 6. J.A. Bannantine, J.J. Comer, and J.L. Handrock,

improving the overall accuracy of the factors, material properties are Fundamentals of Metals Fatigue Analysis (Upper

prognostic model. a core group that has a rather Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1990).

7. David G. Lewicki, Gear Crack Propagation

dominant impact on life prediction. Path StudiesGuidelines for Ultra-Safe Design,

CONCLUSION

Information such as the statistical NASA/TM2001-211073 (July 2001).

Using system-level observable fea- variation of fatigue and fracture 8. ASM Handbook Volume 19: Fatigue and Fracture

(Materials Park, OH: ASM International, 1996).

tures to orient and update the models properties, as well as compressive 9. L.E. Spievak, P.A. Wawrzynek, and A.R. Ingraffea,

responsible for tracking a components stresses, within the case-hardened Simulating Fatigue Crack Growth in Spiral Bevel

material condition provides a sound layer would be valuable in improv- Gears (M.S. Thesis, School of Civil and Environmental

Engineering, Cornell University, August 1999).

approach for improved awareness of ing prognostic accuracy. 10. J. Ma, Energy Operator and Other Demodulation

the current health state. The real-time Approaches to Gear Defect Detection, Proceedings of

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS the 49th Meeting of the Society for Machinery Failure

calibrated model is then also available to

Prevention Technology, (Willowbrook, IL: Vibration

predict future performance over a range The authors thank Andrew Hess Institute Publishing, 1995), pp. 127140.

of potential loads and environmental of Naval Air Systems Command for

conditions. Deployment of calibrated funding this effort as part of a Phase

prognostic tools within a tactical I Small Business Innovation Research G.J. Kacprzynski, A. Sarlashkar, and M.J. Roemer

decision-aiding environment will pro- program as well as William Hardman, are with Impact Technologies LLC. A. Hess and

B. Hardman are with the Naval Surface Warfare

vide intelligent asset management and Leo Fila, and James Larsen (U.S. Center Aircraft Division.

lead to improved readiness and mission Air Force) for data, informational

assurance. support, and feedback. Finally, the For more information, contact G.J. Kacprzynski,

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