IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 62, NO.

4, DECEMBER 2013 821

Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Rolling

Bearings Utilizing Data-Driven Probabilistic
E-Support Vectors Regression
Theodoros H. Loutas, Dimitrios Roulias, and George Georgoulas

AbstractWe report on a data-driven approach for the re- Wiener Entropy

maining useful life (RUL) estimation of rolling element bearings
based on -Support Vector Regression ( -SVR). Lifetime data are Moving Average
analyzed and evaluated. The occurrence of critical faults in every
test is located, and a critical operational threshold is established. Wavelet Packet Transform
Multiple statistical features from the time-domain, frequency Fast Fourier Transform
domain, and time-scale domain through a wavelet transform are
extracted from the recordings of two accelerometers, and assessed Median Absolute Deviation
for their diagnostic performance. Among those features, Wiener
entropy is utilized for the first time in the condition monitoring Squared Correlation Coefficient
of rolling bearings. A SVR model is trained and tested for the Mean Squared Error
prediction of RUL on unseen data. Special attention is given in
the tuning and the optimization of the user-defined hyper-param- Cumulative Relative Accuracy
eters of the e-SVR model. Error bounds are estimated at each
prediction point through a Bayesian treatment of the classical Mean absolute percentage error
SVR model. The results are in good agreement to the actual RUL
curve for all the tested cases. Prognostic performance metrics are NOTATION
also provided, and the discussion on the test results concludes
with the generic character of the proposed methodology and its The target function in SVR i.e., the prediction
applicability in any prognostic task. of RUL
Index TermsCondition-based maintenance, prognostics, re- The input/training feature matrix
maining useful life, support vector regression.
Kernel function
Regularization hyperparameter of the SVR
ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS model
Remaining Useful Life Hyperparameter of the SVR model that
Support Vector Regression controls the sparsity of the data
Condition Based Maintenance Hyperparameter of the SVR model that
controls the width of the Gaussian kernel
Mean Time To Failure
Variance of the RUL prediction
Condition Monitoring
Power spectrum coefficients
Probability Density Function
Root Mean Square Number of samples in vibration recordings

I. INTRODUCTION

Manuscript received May 19, 2013; revised July 15, 2013; accepted July 15,
2013. Date of publication October 23, 2013; date of current version November
25, 2013. This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European
Social FundESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program
Education and Lifelong Learning of the National Strategic Reference Frame-
work (NSRF)Research Funding Program: Heracleitus II. Investing in knowl-
edge society through the European Social Fund.
Corresponding author: T. H. Loutas (e-mail:loutas@mech.upatras.gr).
T. H. Loutas and D. Roulias are with the Applied Mechanics Laboratory,
Mechanical Engineering & Aeronautics Department, University of Patras,
GR-26500 Rio Patras, Achaia, Greece.
G. Georgoulas is with the Department of Informatics and Telecommunica-
tions Technology, Technological Educational Institute of Epirus, GR-47100,
Greece.
Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online
at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TR.2013.2285318
T
HE maintenance of complex engineering systems in air-
crafts, helicopters, ground vehicles, ships, as well as in
civil structures has gained a lot of attention in the last 50 years
in the framework of ageing machinery and structures, and the
need to prolong their service life beyond the intent of the ini-
tial design. Successful fault diagnostics and health monitoring
of structures and machines was for many years (and still is) the
main target towards a safe operation of machines and struc-
tures. Safety is the top priority, especially where human lives
are involved. Over the last few years though, cost effectiveness
and asset availability are becoming increasingly important in a
highly competitive international economical and business en-
vironment. For example, the European Union envisions an in-

0018-9529 2013 IEEE

822
crease in aircraft availability by 30% with a reduction of main-
tenance costs by 40% by the year 2050 [1]. This goal clearly
pushes the currently prevalent philosophy of periodic mainte-
nance to predictive or condition-based maintenance (CBM), a
concept existing since the 1950s. Modern CBM has two essen-
tial pylons: fault diagnostics, and failure prognostics. Prognos-
tics have increasingly drawn the attention of the engineering
community over the last decade, and the literature is expanding
in a field that was considered terra incognita a few years ago.
Prognosis in engineering systems is usually expressed with
the estimation of the mean time to failure (MTTF), or the re-
maining useful life (RUL); the latter has actually prevailed in the
relevant literature as a term. RUL, though, should be different
(and actually less) than MTTF in the sense that the operational
end-of-life of an asset is not the actual failure but a rather ear-
lier stage as failure usually implies a more costly maintenance.
The RUL of a system is considered as a random variable (of un-
known distribution) depending on the operational environment,
as well as its age and history.
Rolling element bearings are a very critical component in var-
ious machines, and account for 4555% of asynchronous motor
failures according to a report from the Electric Power Research
Institute (ERPI) [2]. In induction motors, the most common
failure is also related to bearings, followed by stator winding
failures, and rotor bar failures [3]. Nowadays, diagnostics for
bearings have reached a level of maturity. Prognostics is still at
its infancy with a rapidly growing interest the last 10 years.
A classification of the various prognostic approaches sug-
gested in the literature is not globally agreed. Sikorska et al..
[4], in a recent review of machinery prognostics, considered
four main categories: knowledge-based models, life expectancy
models, artificial neural networks, and physical models. An-
other classification followed by many authors [5][8] is model
(or physics)-based and data-driven approaches. Model-based
prognostics attempt to create a detailed mathematical model of
the behaviour of an engineering system and its deterioration
throughout its service life. In this context, Yu and Harris [9]
developed a stress fatigue life model for ball bearings. Classic
bearing failure modes are also predicted by theoretical models
such as L10 life calculations. Bolander et al.. [10] have recently
provided a physics-based remaining useful life (RUL) predic-
tion model for aircraft engine bearings. They validated their
model by a full-scale lifelong bearing test. In [11], the Paris-Er-
dogan model is used to predict the crack propagation in bear-
ings and forecast the crack size. Li and Choi [12], and Li and
Lee [13] also proposed the Paris-Erdogan law, coupled with a
finite element model, to represent the time evolution of a tooths
crack in a gear. The Paris-Erdogan law has also been used in [14]
to model a crack propagation in a helicopters gearbox pinion,
and to estimate the corresponding RUL of the component. In
general, physics based models have only limited application be-
cause in real life operating assets numerous unexpected or non
linear mechanisms of degradation can occur.
Data-driven methodologies use indirect data (such as con-
dition monitoring (CM) data) and artificial intelligence or
machine learning statistical tools to train a system, usually
through lifetime data, and use it to estimate the RUL. Being
simpler, though requiring historical or reliability data, statistical
data-driven approaches have dominated the literature. Si et al..
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 62, NO. 4, DECEMBER 2013
[15] gives a thorough review of such methods. The scarcity of
run-until-failure data is probably the biggest problem for data
driven prognostics of mechanical systems in general. To over-
come this shortfall, many groups have been experimenting with
extracting trend information, on-line, based on a single life his-
tory. Such approaches adapt and update a data driven prediction
model continuously during the components operation. Chen et
al.. [5], [16] utilized Bayesian updating theory in a stochastic
particle-filtering perspective to calculate the RUL probability
density function (PDF) in a ready-to-use .NET architecture
with better prediction capability compared to an adaptive
neuro-fuzzy inference system. They applied their algorithm in
vibration data from a cracked planetary gear carrier plate in an
epicyclic gearbox as well as in rolling bearings. The model pa-
rameters were updated on-line to follow the degradation trend.
Boskoski et al.. [17] used Gaussian non-parametric process
models to find the relationships between limited training condi-
tion monitoring data. The mean RUL and confidence intervals
were determined in bearing fault prognostics assuming that
RUL follows a normal distribution. Di Maio and Zio [18]
have also utilised an on-line evolving prediction model. The
model was based on a fuzzy point-wise similarity concept.
They were able to predict RUL along with its variance. Their
procedure has been applied to the crack propagation dynamics
of a component subject to fatigue. Comparison with particle
filtering proved advantageous, and showed that the method
was capable of successfully handling nonlinear dynamics and
non-Gaussian noise. Benkedjouh et al.. [19] utilized Support
Vector Data Description (SVDD) and Principal Component
Analysis (PCA) for the condition monitoring and forecasting
of bearings useful life. The SVDD is used to fit the trained data
to a hypersphere in feature space such that its radius can be
used as a health indicator. The RUL was calculated by applying
the best power fit of the radius on the degradation signal. Saha
et al.. [20] relied on Relevance Vectors Regression (RVR)
for their prognostic framework. RVR is actually a Bayesian
treatment of the classical SVR, and the PDF of RUL is thus
provided. They used their approach to predict the discharging
of Li-Ion batteries. Di Maio et al.. [21] also used the RVMs
framework to sparsely represent degradation data, and in line
with exponential regression predict the RUL in thrust bearings.
Their approach does not need lifetime data to perform any
training, but needs an a priori knowledge of a failure threshold.
Widodo and Yang [22] developed an intelligent system using
survival analysis and support vector machines (SVMs) to
predict the survival probability of bearings. Gebraeel et al..
[23], and Tian [24] used Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)
for bearing remaining useful life estimation.
Tobon-Mejia et al.. [5], and Medjaher et al.. [25] adapted a
Mixture of Gaussians Hidden Markov Models (MoG-HMMs)
for RUL prediction along with the respective confidence in-
tervals. Dong and He [26], and Peng and Dong [27] adopted
a Hidden Semi Markov framework for RUL estimation in
engineering assets. Sutrisno et al.. [28] developed and assessed
various prognostic methods. These included linear and ex-
ponential model adaptation, PCA-Least Square SVR models
(without giving results or an indication on PCA utilization
necessity though), and an empirical survival time ratio model
based on vibration signatures. The results indicated that the
LOUTAS et al.: REMAINING USEFUL LIFE ESTIMATION IN ROLLING BEARINGS UTILIZING DATA-DRIVEN
latter method performed optimally for RUL estimation in
bearings.
Gebraeel et al..[29] also proposed methodologies for the
Bayesian updating of the stochastic parameters of exponential
degradation models developed for bearings degradation his-
tories that exhibit either iid or Brownian error characteristics.
Elwany et al.. [30], as well as Kaiser et al.. [31] proposed
models for RUL estimation and update. At the same time, they
evaluated the probability distribution of RUL at every time
step, which is essential for reliable RUL estimation models.
In this paper, a data-driven prognostic methodology is pro-
posed based on probabilistic SVR for the step by step predic-
tion of the RUL of ball bearings. The RUL prognosis scheme is
developed and tested on the PRONOSTIA dataset provided by
FEMTO-ST in France [32]. The model is trained and calibrated
off-line, utilizing information from the past lifelong histories,
and then tested in unseen data, which are those data that do not
participate in the training phase.
The paper is organised as follows. Section II provides a short
presentation of -SVR theory and formulation. Because in prog-
nostics the estimation of the variance of the RUL prediction is
essential [33] for reliability purposes, a method to obtain the
variance of the prediction at each testing point is also given.
Section III deals with the signal processing of the sensors (ac-
celerometers) recordings. A procedure for feature extraction, as
well as feature pre-processing, is analytically described. More-
over, a new feature (i.e., Wiener entropy or spectral flatness) is
proposed for CBM purposes for the first time. Section IV pro-
vides a short description of the experimental bearing database.
In Section V, the results from the proposed prognostic method-
ology are presented, and a discussion on the prognostic perfor-
mance follows in Section VI. A classical linear ridge regression
technique is also applied to highlight the improved performance
of the SVR approach. Finally, the most important conclusions
are summarized in Section VII.
Being aware of the literature up to the point of submission
of the current work, probabilistic SVRs have not been utilized
for RUL predictions; and, together with the incorporation of the
Wiener entropy (WE) as a potent CBM feature, consist of the
main novelties of the proposed methodology. At the time of
the submission, a paper in press appeared by the developers of
the PRONOSTIA test-bench that utilized SVR (in a non-prob-
abilistic fashion) for step-ahead prediction and RUL estimation
based on a priori knowledge of a failure threshold [34].
II. -SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION
Support vector machines are a concept introduced by Vapnik
[35] which became very popular over the last few years for both
classification and regression problems. In principle, SVR is ad-
vantageous over conventional regression techniques as it maps
in a non-linear fashion the original input data to a higher dimen-
sion in Hilbert space via kernel functions [36]. Lets suppose
a set of n observations is provided. In the most general case,
each observation lies in an M-dimensional space,
. At the same time, a desirable mapping is pro-
vided for each observation vector. Lets also assume a set of
target values that comprises the vector of mappings.
Regression is the problem of finding a transformation such
that in the best possible way. A good answer
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to this problem is given in the support vector context, stated as
follows.
Given a parameterization
(1)
find which minimizes the following functional
(2)
The second term of the functional is an -insensitive cost func-
tion, and that is where the -SVR name comes from. To add
generality and flexibility to the method, slack variables and
are incorporated. The optimization problem is modified as
(3)
with the constraints
(4)
which is a quadratic optimization problem with linear con-
straints. The term at (3) corresponds to an
upper bound to the number of points not belonging to function
f, where N is the number of points that reside outside the
margin. Constant regulates the trade-off between a smoother
or a more accurate interpolation function, and it is a parameter
provided by the user. A large reduces the training error, but
increases the model complexity, i.e., the number of support
vectors, and therefore the training time and possibly general-
ization ability. A smaller results in a less complex model
with higher mean square error, but possibly resulting in better
generalization. The final, dual optimization problem can be
formulated as follows.
Find and , , such that the quadratic form
is maximized,
(5)
subject to
(6)
, where and , are the Lagrange multipliers. The objective
function at (5) is convex. This result means that a unique
deterministic solution to the optimization problem can always
be found. Fig. 1(a) shows a two-dimensional space with a pro-
posed linear interpolation function used for regression, whereas
in Fig. 1(b) the linear -insensitive loss function can be seen.
824
Fig. 1. (a) A linear interpolation model function over a two-dimensional
space, and the margin as well as two slack variables are shown; and
(b) a graphic representation of the linear -insensitive loss function.
Various loss functions exist, the interested reader can refer to
Gao et al. [37].
By solving the optimization problem in (5), we get the SVM
regression function
(7)
As in the case of SVMs for classification, an extension to non-
linear SVR can be achieved using the kernel trick leading to the
solution
(8)
where is the kernel function. The kernel trick maps the
original feature space to a higher feature space where the regres-
sion problem can potentially be solved with better efficiency.
There are various possible kernel choices such as the polyno-
mial kernel of degree
(9)
or the radial basis function kernel
(10)
A. Prediction Error Bounds
A probabilistic treatment of the data is not inherent within the
classical SVR framework. The algorithm itself is deterministic
in nature, and does not provide error bounds at the predicted
points. However, a requirement that always arises in machinery
prognostics is that of quantifying the uncertainty for the models
RUL prediction providing not only the mean estimation but also
a confidence associated with the prediction [33]. In the field of
CBM, Liu et al.. [38] provided an estimation of the prediction
error variance in a SVR framework for diagnostic purposes in
critical components in the nuclear industry. In RUL predictions,
probabilistic SVR has not yet been utilized in the literature as
far as we know.
The prediction error for each prediction in general con-
sists of two terms. An upper bound on the prediction error vari-
ance for the e-loss function has been analytically determined in
[37].
(11)
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 62, NO. 4, DECEMBER 2013
The first term is an estimation of the datas inherent noise.
This noise propagates from the feature input space to the
model predicted target space through the function of (1). To
find a measure of this propagated noise, a Bayesian approach
is applied. This Bayesian noise estimation takes place on the
training data set, and it assumes similar noise characteristics
throughout the training data. Assuming is the pos-
terior probability density function of the predictions at the
point given the training dataset , then with
the application of Bayes rule
(12)
is the likelihood of the model, and is assumed to be
an exponential function over the SVR loss function (as depicted
in Fig. 1(b). is the prior probability density function,
which is assumed to be a zero mean Gaussian process.
is called the evidence of the model. It is actually the likelihood
of the model integrated over all training set model prediction
values. The exact calculation of every term of (11) is impos-
sible. Therefore, Gao et al.. [37] resorts to the Gaussian distri-
bution. With this assumption, an estimation of the variance of
the posterior probability is obtained as
(13)
where and are the hyperparameters of the SVR model as
explained above.
The second term in (11) is associated with the model uncer-
tainty itself, i.e., the uncertainty of each test point prediction
provided by the SVR model. This uncertainty is induced due to
the finite number of training data. The more training data points
provided, the less the uncertainty induced in the training model.
To calculate this term, a Gaussian framework is also assumed
(for details refer to [37]). Finally, this term is calculated at every
prediction point by
(14)
where
(15)
is the covariance matrix. It is calculated on the
model parameters (the support vectors) plus the new test data
point . The covariance matrix has dimensions
, where M is the number of the marginal vectors of the par-
ticular model. is a scalar and is the value of the co-
variance matrix at position . is a
vector positioned at the right end of the covariance matrix, and
is the sub-matrix spanning from (1:M, 1:M). The vari-
ance term due to model uncertainty and the term due to feature
space noise are superimposed at every prediction point. Finally,
(11) turns to
(16)
LOUTAS et al.: REMAINING USEFUL LIFE ESTIMATION IN ROLLING BEARINGS UTILIZING DATA-DRIVEN
Fig. 2. Spectral flatness as a function of operational time for three different lifelong rolling element bearing tests.
III. FEATURE EXTRACTION
The development of a robust CBM diagnostic and prognostic
scheme comprises several steps. The first step is to identify fea-
tures that are most relevant to the phenomenon under consid-
eration, in our case the gradual degradation of a rolling ele-
ment bearing. These features are extracted from the recorded
acceleration waveforms. As the feature extraction task can lead
to numerous features, there are a few criteria that may define
a potentially interesting CBM descriptor. First, a good feature
must possess as low volatility as possible. The volatility can be
reduced with an outlier detection or filtering scheme. Second,
with the assumption that the structural integrity of the mechan-
ical asset is constantly deteriorating throughout its operation, a
good CBM feature should exhibit monotonic behavior, either
increasing or decreasing.
A. Time-Frequency Domain Features
Various features from the time and frequency domain can be
extracted for CBM purposes [39]. Time-frequency analysis is
another interesting option via the powerful wavelet or wavelet
packet transform. Wavelet-based feature extraction in CBM be-
came the state-of-the-art over the last 15 years [40] as infor-
mation from the joint time-frequency domain becomes avail-
able in a computationally efficient manner, as opposed to the
time-frequency transformations of Cohens class (Wigner-Ville,
Choi-Williams etc).
Wavelet transform of a 1-D real signal is the atomic decom-
position of the signal in scaled and shifted versions of a basis
function called the mother wavelet,
(17)
In practical signal processing, a discrete version of the
wavelet transform is often employed by discretizing the dila-
tion (parameter a in (17)) and translation (parameter in
(17)). In general, the procedure becomes much more efficient
if dyadic values of these parameters are used, leading to the
well known Discrete Wavelet Transform. The wavelet packet
transform (WPT) is an optimal sub-band tree structuring [41]
that yields a tree structure with each branch being a band-passed
and down-sampled instance of the original signal.
Different fault signature information resides in different fre-
quency bands in the vibration waveform spectrum. WPT can
825
be applied to divide the vibration spectrum into theoretically
equally spaced frequency bands for further reasoning.
B. Wiener Entropy or Spectral Flatness
Wiener entropy or spectral flatness is a feature associated to
the power spectrum of a time-series. It is a measure of the in-
formation content of the noisy time-series, and its expression is
given by the ratio of the geometrical mean of the power spec-
trum coefficients to its arithmetic mean:
(18)
where is the power spectrum calculated at each frequency
and kmax is the number of spectral lines. Spectral flatness
inherently takes values from in the range . Flatness equal
to one implies a totally uniform spectrum, which is white noise,
whereas zero flatness implies a single frequency i.e., a sinusoid.
The vibration signal obtained from an accelerometer
mounted on a bearing case is expected to increase its flatness
while degradation is progressing. In the beginning of the assets
operation, the acceleration signal should contain a modulated
band that stems from the normal operation of the motor. While
bearing degradation is progressing, the acceleration signal
becomes infested with higher harmonics and resonances.
Fig. 2 shows various spectral flatness evolutions versus test
times for three bearing degradation experiments, and verifies
the increasing character due to degradation. Interestingly
enough, their evolution is monotonic with time as expected,
and additionally they possess relatively small volatility. To the
authors knowledge, this is the first time that spectral flatness is
explored for condition monitoring purposes.
C. Feature Time-Series Processing
1) Run-in Period Disposal: During the operation of mechan-
ical assets, vibration recordings are highly correlated with con-
textual parameters. Apart from the operating conditions, tem-
perature has a notable impact on vibration and acoustic emission
recordings as we have confirmed in the past [42]. Thus, when a
mechanical component is operated for the first time or in the be-
ginning after a pause, a group of outliers is observed related to
the smoothing process between the rotating elements. In the cur-
rent work, these recordings are neglected with the disposition of
a certain time interval at the beginning of each experiment.
826
2) Outlier Detection: Outlier detection is an issue for any ro-
bust diagnostic or prognostic scheme. There is no explicit def-
inition of when a time-series sample is an outlier or not. It is
assumed that an outlier point might originate from sensor prob-
lems, DAC malfunctioning, or some other event irrelevant to
the degradation process of the mechanical system. The outlier
detection and removal that took place is based on a method pro-
posed by [43]. The following process has also been applied by
the authors [44] for mechanical feature time-series smoothing.
The outlier decision threshold is of a statistical nature. Most
often, the standard deviation of a moving window is defined as
a means to distinguish between normal and abnormal samples.
This is not very robust though. In [43], a threshold based on the
median absolute deviation is applied, normalised with 0.6745
according to [45].
(19)
Referring to (19), is the lth sample of the time-series
window of width L, and dL is the median of the respective
time-series. If the next sample is larger than three or four times
the normalised MAD, i.e., MAD/0.6745, then it is replaced by
the median of the windowed time-series; otherwise, it is left un-
touched.
The length N of the time series window in (19) should also
be defined. Too long a window would ignore the local dynamics
of the phenomenon. On the other hand, too short a window
could allow outliers be accepted as valid recordings, especially
in cases that batches of outliers exist in the time-series. The
window should be longer than the larger outlier batch which
is often defined empirically by inspection of the particular
time-series.
3) Noise Reduction and Smoothing: Lastly, the time-series
of the CBM feature may incorporate high noise and volatility,
and this condition is clearly undesirable for the subsequent time-
series model training. A simple causal low-pass filter, i.e., a
Moving Average (MA) filter, is applied, which smoothes the
data.
IV. EXPERIMENTAL DATA
The experimental data come from the publicly available
PRONOSTIA platform [32], and comprise a number of
run-until-failure experiments in rolling element bearings in
various loading cases. Two vibration sensors were mounted
on the bearing case for the degradation monitoring task, one
recording the vertical, and the other recording the horizontal
axis acceleration signal. The sampling rate was 25.6 kHz,
the length of every sampled acceleration waveform was 2560
samples, whereas recordings took place every 10 seconds. All
tests were stopped when the vibration root mean square (RMS)
acceleration crossed the 20 g threshold. Constant loading and
shaft speed conditions were kept for all experiments. The data
were organized so that they cover three cases of load-speed
conditions. These three set-ups are summarized in Table I.
Photographic evidence was also provided as a visual assess-
ment of the final rolling element bearing condition. It is evident
in Fig. 3 that the respective 20 g threshold was in general an
adequate failure criterion.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 62, NO. 4, DECEMBER 2013
Fig. 3. Normal and degraded bearings photos from [32].
TABLE I
OPERATING CONDITIONS.
Based on the extracted vibration RMS histories, several
points can be made regarding the latter experiments. To this
end, the RMS of the horizontal axis accelerometer is plotted
against operational time. In Fig. 4, two discrete operational
time regions are clearly evident. In the first operational region,
the vibration RMS level is low, and seemingly constant. This
region spans from 0 to 368 minutes in Fig. 4(a), and from 0 to
138 minutes in Fig. 4(c). In this interval, the degradation of the
bearing starts with minute cracks in its microstructure or the
surface due to fatigue. These cracks progressively propagate to
the surface of the raceway, creating small pits and dislodging
small pieces of material. However, very little evidence for this
gradual degradation can be found in the presented vibration
RMS histories. At some point, a knee in the time plot of RMS
indicates the appearance of a critical fault. Fig. 4 parts b and d
focus at the time of this event. The dynamics of the degradation
at this operating region change dramatically, based on the RMS
histories. Every test available in the database may or may not
continue for some time after the appearance of such a fault.
Another characteristic of the experiments is that each one
may exhibit various modes of degradation, and possibly even
a combination of such modes. This possibility resulted in a va-
riety of total experimental durations for bearings tested under
the same conditions, and also critical fault time appearance. In
this work, the remaining time to critical fault will be estimated.
For consistency with the literature, this time will be denoted as
the remaining useful life (RUL) of each test. More precisely, the
end of useful life is defined as the point that the dynamics of the
operating bearing change, and it switches to another operational
mode, as shown in Fig. 4 parts b and d. This threshold does not
coincide with the end of each test, but roughly with the appear-
ance of a critical fault, and the rapid change at the operational
characteristics of the asset.
For the current work, eight bearing histories are taken into
account, four from the case 1 operating condition, and four
LOUTAS et al.: REMAINING USEFUL LIFE ESTIMATION IN ROLLING BEARINGS UTILIZING DATA-DRIVEN
Fig. 4. Typical RMS time series for two lifelong bearing experiments: (a), and (c) are RMS histories from case 1, and case 2 bearings respectively; and (b), and
(d) are a zoom in the change-point due to critical fault occurrence.
from the case 2 operating condition. Three histories are held
for training a RUL expert system, and one for testing. An
RMS threshold defines the end of the bearings life in each
experiment. Concerning case 1, the three training life histories
are 124, 110, and 19 minutes long, and the testing life history
is 117 minutes. Similarly, for case 2, the three training life
histories are 333, 131, and 350 minutes long, and the testing
life history is 174 minutes long.
V. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS
Tests from the two first operational conditions of
PRONOSTIA were utilized (cases 1 and 2). The record-
ings under consideration extend from the beginning of the
test up to the point that vibration RMS crosses a predefined
threshold associated with the critical fault. This threshold is set
at 1 mV RMS and was derived by visual inspection of all the
PRONOSTIA bearing histories confirming that in every test
case it came after the critical fault occurrence. After subtracting
the mean from each waveform, the feature extraction task
commenced, and several statistical features were extracted and
assessed.
In Section III, we discussed the desirable characteristics of
the candidate CBM features. Feature extraction is a critical step
for an effective buildup of a robust diagnostic or prognostic
scheme. Among the various features (more than 60) extracted
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from the time, frequency (via FFT), and time-frequency (via
WPT) domains, we chose as input to the SVR the ones that
exhibit the most monotonic behavior during the test time.
Spearmans rank correlation coefficient was utilized towards
the direction of finding the most monotonic features among
many candidates from the time or frequency or joint time-fre-
quency domains. The WPT nodal energies and the spectral
flatness were among the ones with the highest scores on an
ensemble averaging of all training tests. Regarding the WPT,
the db10 mother wavelet (Daubechies mother wavelet with 10
vanishing moments) basis was utilized for the decomposition.
Three levels of decomposition were chosen resulting in 23 end
branches. The percentage of energy corresponding at each WP
node is calculated as the final feature. Also the spectral flat-
ness of each waveform was obtained because it exhibited low
volatility and highly monotonic behavior for all experiments.
For different training sets, the feature set may differentiate
as the features do not exhibit a similar behavior globally in the
database. A feature with high Spearmans coefficient for one
experiment may prove low for another. This issue is tackled
with the ensemble averaging, and is one of the drawbacks of
the PRONOSTIA dataset which could be an issue in real-life
applications.
Both sensor recordings were incorporated into the prognostic
scheme. When reliable sensor data are used, combining mul-
828 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 62, NO. 4, DECEMBER 2013

Fig. 5. A flow chart depicting the proposed RUL prediction scheme.

tiple sensors (data fusion) to support decisions produces im- TABLE II

proved detection performance according to [46]. To this end, TRAINING AND TESTING SETS CHARACTERISTICS.
the above described feature extraction process was applied to
both accelerometer recordings at our disposal, horizontal and
vertical. For every observation point, a feature vector of dimen-
sion 18 ((8 WP branches spectral flatness) 2 sensors) was
obtained. Therefore 18 feature time-series in total were derived.
The pre-processing step was described in Section IV. An outlier
detection scheme with a window length of and outlier
threshold set at 4 times the normalized MAD (19) was applied.
Finally, a moving average (MA) filter of length 6 was imple-
mented and applied to every feature evolution time-series, sup-
component who has crossed the critical error limit). The latter
pressing unwanted or irrelevant feature characteristics (outliers)
is noted as the RUL percentage at each time step.
plus providing a desirable smoothing.
The proposed prognostic scheme is summarized in Fig. 5.
Finally, the full training and testing sets were obtained for
each operating case. Table II summarizes the two case studies
A. Tuning the Model Hyperparameters
characteristics.
Each training set comprises 3 lifetime experiments spanning A number of hyperparameters have to be optimally tuned in
from a healthy state until the predefined critical error threshold order to obtain a successful RUL prediction model. Concerning
is reached. The target value for each recording was set to be the case of e-SVR, the hyperparameters that have to be defined
the normalized actual time to critical error, which is a linearly are
decreasing function taking values from one to zero (one corre- 1) the type of kernel,
sponding to brand new equipment, and zero corresponding to a 2) the corresponding kernel hyperparameters,
LOUTAS et al.: REMAINING USEFUL LIFE ESTIMATION IN ROLLING BEARINGS UTILIZING DATA-DRIVEN
TABLE III
FINAL HYPERPARAMETER VALUES AFTER THE TUNING PROCEDURE
3) the margin of the SVR loss function, and
4) the value of at (3).
A thorough tuning of the SVR could even take into consider-
ation the type of loss function which can be an e-loss function,
quadratic, 1-Norm, Hubber, etc. To the authors knowledge, no
systematic approach exists in the literature that chooses opti-
mally all aforementioned four hyperparameters (not to take into
account the type of loss function) and at the same time provide a
parsimonious model. The prevalent trend involves a grid search
of the involved hyperparameters towards the optimization of a
certain function, usually after the a priori selection of kernel type
as well as the SVR loss function [37], [47]. We set, as quanti-
tative criteria for the hyperparameters selection, the maximiza-
tion of the square correlation coefficient (SCC), and the simul-
taneous minimization of the mean square error (MSE) between
the predicted versus the actual RUL values. A SCC close to one,
and a MSE close to zero, would suggest an optimum result.
At the same time, the requirement for model parsimony
forces the study not to opt for optimal hyperparameters when
the number of support vectors is excessively high. This effect
would imply over-fitting on the training data, which is highly
undesirable. It is not a simple task to answer the problem of
hyperparameter tuning, and therefore certain hyperparameters
are defined empirically based on preliminary trials.
The radial basis kernel (10) was utilized after extensive exper-
imentation, so , , and must be optimally tuned. The choice
for ? in this kernel was fixed to (1/total number of features) as a
general rule of thumb [47].
Values of ranging from 0.001 to 0.1 were also tested giving
similar fitness efficiency with respect to MSE and SSC. A
value smaller than 0.001 resulted in a very large number of sup-
port vectors. Relatively high values of gave poor
SCC and MSE efficiency between the predicted and actual RUL.
The tuning for and was realized through a grid search. Sev-
eral cross-validation tests were performed on the training set in
the range and . MSE and
SCC values were obtained after leave one out cross validation
process in each model. Fig. 6 summarizes the results of the grid
search.
The choice for and was based on the results of Fig. 6 parts
a and b. The requirement for model parsimony posed an implicit
restriction in the pursuit of the selection of the parameters based
solely on the quantitative criteria of SCC and MSE. Table III
summarizes the final hyperparameters choice.
829
Fig. 6. Grid search results on and values; on the left is the MSE value,
and on the right is the SCC value, while the grid search takes place on case 1
operation data.
The hyperparameters tuning process took place separately for
case 1 and case 2 training data sets. The tuning results how-
ever were similar for both cases, implying a generic connection
between the data. Consequently, the choice of hyperparameters
was kept the same for both operating cases. Table III summa-
rizes the results. The number of the resulted support vectors
differed in the two cases under consideration. However, the per-
centage of support vectors to the total number of training points
was similar for both case 1 and case 2 experiments. Almost
2.5% of the training data points were support vectors for each
case, satisfying the parsimony condition. The final testing of the
-SVR model was performed on the testing data set. The predic-
tion output of the -SVR model for every data input was the per-
centage of RUL taking values in the range [1]. To obtain abso-
lute times, this value was multiplied with the mean operational
time obtained from the three training data sets. This assumption
is valid if a normal distribution is assumed for the total oper-
ational lives of all the bearings and could be assessed if more
lifetime histories were available. The success of the SVR model
to predict the RUL was evaluated by means of MSE and SSC.
Figs. 7 and 8 depict the final RUL prediction results for case
1, and case 2 operational set up, respectively. In each graph,
the actual RUL as a function of time is also plotted. Provided
a Gaussian framework is assumed, probability confidence in-
tervals can be analytically calculated [37]. In Figs. 7 and 8, the
90% confidence intervals are depicted corresponding to an error
bound of .
830
Fig. 7. (a) Prognosis results on case 1 operational data, and (b) A zoom-in of the last few minutes.
Fig. 8. (a) Prognosis results on case 2 operational data, and (b) A zoom-in of the last few minutes.
VI. DISCUSSIONPROGNOSTIC PERFORMANCE
Observing the resulting trends of the predicted RUL as op-
posed to the actual RUL (Figs. 7 and 8), it is evident that the
proposed methodology follows satisfactorily the degradation
trend of the test-set bearings. Fig. 7(a) depicts the predicted
RUL plotted in the same graph with the actual time to critical
error for the case 1 mode. It shows that in case 1 the predic-
tions initially overestimate the RUL; but as the end-of-life ap-
proaches, the predictions tend to reach the actual remaining life
and oscillate around it. A reason for this tendency is the value of
the mean time to failure, which was measured on a statistically
small training set of three tests, and was found to be almost 300
minutes. This value varied substantially for one of the testing set
bearing . However, the model manages to cap-
ture the minute to minute degradation process eventually, and
this happens after an hour or so. Case 2 predictions in Fig. 8 are
from an engineering point-of-view more successful as they un-
derestimate RUL. This is a result which is always on the safe
side for any mechanical asset.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 62, NO. 4, DECEMBER 2013
For a more quantitative assessment, certain prognostic per-
formance criteria were utilized. SCC, MSE, Prognostic Horizon
(PH), Cumulative Relative Accuracy (CRA), and Mean Abso-
lute Percentage ERror (MAPER) were used as the basic prog-
nostic performance criteria introduced in [33]. These criteria
were measured between the predicted normalized RUL and the
actual normalized RUL.
PH is the first time at which the actual RUL lies within the
confidence interval.
Precision, MAPER, and CRA are respectively defined as
(20)
(21)
(22)
LOUTAS et al.: REMAINING USEFUL LIFE ESTIMATION IN ROLLING BEARINGS UTILIZING DATA-DRIVEN
TABLE IV
COMPARISON BETWEEN SVR AND RIDGE REGRESSION
PROGNOSTIC PERFORMANCE
where is the prediction error,
is the mean prediction error. RA is the relative accuracy at each
point obtained as
are the temporal instants that recordings take place and N
is the total number of recordings.
Moreover, for comparison reasons, a linear model using the
ridge regression formulation [48] was also fitted to the data. For
tuning the only parameter of the model (similar to parameter
of SVR, see [48] for a description of ridge regression), we
followed the same leave-one-out cross-validation procedure as
in the case of the SVR. The results are summarized in Table IV.
The SVR clearly outperforms the linear model, revealing the
nonlinear dependencies between the extracted features and the
RUL estimation. The PH in the ridge regression case is not given
as no confidence bounds were calculated for this case.
VII. CONCLUSION
In the current work, a methodology for rolling bearing
RUL predictions based on probabilistic SVR is proposed.
Lifelong tests in bearings from the PRONOSTIA database
were exploited to this direction. Features from both available
accelerometers are extracted, assessed, and fused. Wiener
entropy (spectral flatness) was considered for the first time
for the condition monitoring of rolling element bearings.
Together with the wavelet packet nodal energies calculated
831
on recordings from three tests, they constituted the training
inputs to the -SVR model. The issue of the -SVR model
hyperparameters tuning was addressed, and a quantitative grid
search approach was proposed for their determination. The
calibration and training of the model was performed off-line,
and the on-line RUL prediction in previously unseen data was
simulated. Two different operational modes were tested. The
results show adequate agreement with the corresponding actual
bearing degradation level. Various prognostic performance
measures were utilized to assess the -SVR performance, and
compare it with a conventional linear regression technique.
The proposed methodology can be generically used for any
prognostic task (e.g., in gearboxes, batteries etc) for proba-
bilistic RUL predictions, even for a minimum of available
lifetime data. The feature extraction and the model calibration
and hyperparameters tuning are the factors that need to be
controlled as they substantially influence the success of the
prognosis. Finally, on-line implementation of the methodology
does not pose heavy demands in computational resources as
the algorithm runs in less than 1 minute in a conventional 2.3
GHz dual-core processor, with 4 GBs of RAM memory.
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Theodoros H. Loutas is Lecturer of Non Destructive Testing and Structural
Health Monitoring in the Dept. of Mechanical Engineering and Aeronautics
of the University of Patras, Greece. His research interests are in the fields of
Structural Health and Condition Monitoring with techniques such vibrations,
ultrasound with guided waves, acoustic emission, and acousto-ultrasonics. He
is also interested in the diagnostics and prognostics of rotating machinery and
equipment, as well as the mechanics and the mechanical behavior of advanced
materials (metals, composites, nano-composites). He has published work in the
form of 25 journal papers and 31 conference papers.
Dimitrios Roulias is an Electrical Engineer and Ph.D. candidate at the Mechan-
ical Engineering and Aeronautics Department, University of Patras, Greece. His
research interests lie in the field of pattern recognition and signal processing for
non-destructive testing in composite structures, as well as rotating machinery.
George Georgoulas received his Diploma, and Ph.D. degrees from the De-
partment of Electrical and Computer Engineering of the University of Patras
in 1999, and 2006, respectively. From 2006 to 2008, he was a post-doctorate
fellow with the Intelligent Control Systems Laboratory (ICSL) at Georgia Tech
working on diagnostic and prognostic systems. Currently, he is a research as-
sociate with the Knowledge and Intelligent Computing laboratory at the Tech-
nological Educational Institute of Epirus, Greece. Dr Georgoulas has published
over 60 journal and conference papers, and holds a Greek Patent in the detection
of broken bar faults in induction machines.