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US Army Corps

of Engineers
Hydrologic Engineering Center

Generalized Computer Program

HEC-4
Monthly Streamflow Simulation

User's Manual

February 1971

Approved for Public Release. Distribution Unlimited. CPD-4

REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188

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PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ORGANIZATION.
1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From - To)
February 1971 Computer Program Documentation
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER
HEC-4
Monthly Streamflow Simulation 5b. GRANT NUMBER

5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER

6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER
CEIWR-HEC
5e. TASK NUMBER

5F. WORK UNIT NUMBER

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER
US Army Corps of Engineers CPD-4
Institute for Water Resources
Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)
609 Second Street
Davis, CA 95616-4687
9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/ MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S)

11. SPONSOR/ MONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S)

12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

14. ABSTRACT
This program will analyze monthly streamflows at a number of interrelated stations to determine their statistical
characteristics and will generate a sequence of hypothetical streamflows of any desired length having those characteristics.
The program will reconstitute missing streamflows on the basis of concurrent flows observed at other location and will
obtain maximum and minimum quantities for each month and for specified durations in the recorded, reconstituted and
generated flows. HEC-4 will also use the generalized simulation model for generating monthly streamflows at ungaged
locations based on regional studies. There are many options for using the program for various related purposes, and the
program can be used for other variables such as rainfall, evaporation, and water requirements, alone or in combination.

15. SUBJECT TERMS
monthly streamflow, statistical analysis, hypothetical streamflows, durations, simulation, ungaged locations, standard
deviation, skew coefficient, Pearson Type III, normal, HEC-4
16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON
a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE OF OF
ABSTRACT PAGES
U U U 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER
UU 104
Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8/98)
Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39-18

HEC-4
Monthly Streamflow Simulation

User’s Manual

February 1971

US Army Corps of Engineers
Institute for Water Resources
Hydrologic Engineering Center
609 Second Street
Davis, CA 95616

(530) 756-1104
(530) 756-8250 FAX
www.hec.usace.army.mil CPD-4

the HEC must be informed as to the nature and extent of those modifications. or related to. or suitability for any particular purpose of the information or data contained in the programs. 2. Department of the Army. concerning the accuracy. User support from the HEC to third part recipients will only be provided after the second party demonstrates that program difficulties were not caused by their modifications. Corps of Engineers. as the origin of the program(s). The programs belong to the United States Government. The computer programs are furnished by the Government and are accepted and used by the recipient individual or group entity with the express understanding that the United States Government makes no warranties. . 5. 4. expressed or implied. correction notices. or others. Corps of Engineers. the recipient agrees neither to assert any proprietary rights thereto nor to represent the programs to anyone as other than Government programs. 6. 3. All documents and reports conveying information obtained as a result of the use of the program(s) by the recipient. Should the recipient make any modifications to the program(s). and other program services from the HEC unless they obtain the program(s) directly from the HEC. usability. Third party recipients must be notified that they will not receive routine program updates. completeness. will acknowledge the Hydrologic Engineering Center. Department of the Army. 1. 10 December 1984 Conditions of Use The following conditions regulate the use of computer programs developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC). The recipient may impose fees on clients only for ordinary charges for applying and modifying these programs. reliability. those modifications. and that the United States Government shall be under no liability whatsoever to any individual or group entity by reason of any use made thereof. Recipients who modify HEC computer programs assume all responsibility for problems arising from. or furnished in connection therewith. Therefore. This "Conditions of Use" statement shall be furnished to all third parties that receive copies of HEC programs from the recipient.

W mapom OF PROGRAM DESCRIPTIOE OF METHODS OF C-TIOX m O m OPERATING INSTPIUCTIO~S I 1 E F r n I O H S OF !!xmls PROPOSED FUTWlE DEVELB DE'I"AHLED EmMIhT]Cm OF CQBiDPUTER PROGRAIUI DESCUE'TIQN OF CROW'S METHOD m == o m mmm DEFIXEIONS somm PRam IAlPJePT mm OF REQlJlXED c%RDS .Paragraph ORLGSB OF PBOd.

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i. express. %he r e c i p i e n t f u r t h e r agrees not t o a s s e r t any p r o g r i e t a r y r i g h t s t h e r e i n o r t o represent the programs t o anyone a s o t h e r than a Government program.. I n . HYDROLOGIC ENGn\rmmG CENTER C OMPUrER PROGRAM 723-X6 -L23 40 1. reconstituted and generated Plows. evaporation.e f o r use of t h r e e s c r a t c h t a p e s . The programs belong t o t h e Government.l. Programs a r e furnished by t h e Government and are a c c e ~ t e dand used by t h e r e c i p i e n t upon t h e express under- staad. o r s u i t a b i l i t y f o r any p a r t i c u l a r purpose of the informati on a r ~ dd a t a contained i n t h e programs o r furnished i n connection %herewith.the s t a t i s t i c a l analysis portion of t h i s program.1 generate a sequence of hypo'thetical.ation model f o r generating monthly streamflaws a t ungaged locations based on regional s t u d i e s . be under no l i a b i l i t y whatsoever t o any person by reason of any use made thereof.rs-t increnented by 1 percext of . ~and ~ wi.ies f o r each month and. see e x h i b i t 2).ogi.ng those characteris'tics . It w i l l a l s o use t h e general. flows observed a t other locations and w i l l obtain. ORIGm OF PROGRAM This program was ?re pared i n The Hydro1. concerning t h e accuracy. and i. t h e flows f o r each calendar month at ezch s t a t i o n a r e f5. f o r s p e c i f i e d durations i n t h e recorded. and wa.c Engineering Center. 1 analyze monthly streamflows a t a number of' i n t e r - r e l a t e d s t a t i o n s t o deternine t h e i r s t a t i s t i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t l i . 2. Th3. and a f a i r l y large memory ( 6 1 i ~on t h e CDC 6600). 8 and 9 .s program requires a FORTRAN N compi. Up-to-date information and copies of source statement cards f o r various types of computers can be obtained from the Center upon request by Government and cooperating agencies.on . alone o r 3. completeness . Provision i s mad.er. streamflaws of any d e s i r e d l. 'Therefore.to prevent i n f i n i t e ne3ati.or implied. mi- mum and a i n i m u m quantl. 7 ( f o r punched output).ter requirements.iabi l i t y .ength havi.ing t h a t t h e United S t a t e s Government makes no warranties.'t. There a r e many options of using . re3. u s a b i l i t y . a random number generator (function RbJGm included.ve . and t h e United S t a t e s shall. Corps of Engineers.zed simul.m~on the b a s i s of concurrent.l. It w i l l recons t i L u t e miss:ing streamf1.the progran f o r various r e l a t e d purposes. t h e i r calendar-month average i n order . a. PURPOSE OF PROGRAM This program t r i l .n comblinati.t can be used f o r o t h e r v a r i a b l e s such a s r a i n f a l l .

thms f o r montl~sof zero flow Mean logarithm of incremented monthly flows Total. years of record Unbiased.logarithms. This increnent i s l a t e r subtrac.n which : Logarithm of i. . t a t i o n and calendar month a r e then computed.to prevent i n f i n i t e logani.m used .ard deviatf on and ska? coef'ficients f o r each s .1 increment of f1.ted.recorded streamfl. t o find t h a t which w i l l contribute most toward increasing t h e r e l i a b i l i t y of the s t a t i s t i c s com- puted from t h e incomplete record. The mean and standard deviation a r e then'adjusted.s for s e l e c t i n g t h e b e s t record t o be used i n t h e adjustment. For each s t a t i o n and month with incomplete record. This involves t h e P o l l c x ~ i n gequations : i. estimate of population standard dev.iati. The mean.ncremented monthly f l o w Monthly . Equations 6 and 7 a r e t h e a d j u s h e n t equations.ow Smal. stand.on Unbiased estimate of population skew coefficient Month nuniber Year rider b. Equation 5 i s used t o compute t h e equivalent record required t o obtain s t a t i s t i c s equally r e l i a b l e t o t h e s e adjusted s t a t i s t i c s and i s t h e basi. a search i s made f o r longer records among t h e s t a t i o n s used.

ents R between a l l p e i r s of s t a t i o n s POP each current and preceding calendar nonth a r e computed hy use of' the f 01. t h e gross (simFle) corre3ation coeffici.owing approximation of t h e Pearson Type 111 d i s t r i b u t i o n : t = Pearsorr Type SII standard deviate K = Noma1 standard d. m L-l.viate d. flow i s then converted t o a normalized standard varia'te. Each individual.3owing formula : N 2 i' i-1 l ..m C xi-1 .cient c .e. and: N = Length of record R = Linear correlat.m / z 2 x i .on coef f i.The primes indicate t h e long-period values and those without primes are based on t h e same s h o r t period f o r both stati.m m=l m=l n=l (N-1 )/(R-2) }Q (lc) i n which : x = X-X - . using t h e foll.i..ons I and 2 . After transforming the flows f o r all months and s t a t i o n s t o nornal.

es ~ i t o cornpute a reo_:~l.mated by.ows &.a using f.scussed 2. t h e inde- pendent v a r i a b l e c o n t r i b u t i n g least to t h e c o r r e l a t i o n i s dropped. Each d. 5 . sta.th by use of t h e fol:l.n.s used. r e l a t e d pa. and the average of t h e s e %wo 1 .mg by the Crout method! (See exhibit 1).d. The ERissinz va.the various s t a t i o n s a r e e s ' t r i ~ a t e df 0.:xe f o r all.cient s~mul.ected where a v a i l a b l e .ion egua'tion i n term of no& standard v a r i a t e s i. . It has been found t h a t v a l i d use o r t h e regression technique r e q u i r e s t h a t all c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s agree with t h e data t h a t w i l l b e s u b s t i t u t e d iilto t h e equations and t h a t t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s be m u t u a l l j con- s i s t e r i t .rs or" values I n t h e c u r r e n t and preced3. otherwise t h e precedinz value i.'taneousobservations of any pa1.on.ready examined t h a t month and. as d. q . h i g h e s t lower 1i. introducling a random c~omponentequal.t rnus t 1i.rAgPo-mu1. yequations .i. t h e lcwest qger 3.mated corre1.e c o r r e l a t i o n matrix f o r t h a t morrth and solvl.t.from t h e compl. c i e n t .r al.ar i s being ~ e c o n s t i t u t e d .ssi. in order t o be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e two rel. h order t o make t h e c o r r e l a t i o n matrix consi s t e n t w i tl? t h e d a t a matrix..ons a.l.nation c o e f f i c i e n t ~ r e a t e rthan 1.a'tion.redc o r r e l a t i o n cae. t h a t value must b e e s ' t : i ~ a t e d . ti ons .lg fl. If this occurs (because of incomplete d a t a ) .ent. s t a t i o n s f o r each month i. t o 'the ~or?d. when- ever a missi.t'rle gross cc. f'. and k subscrl.value i s estj.ue i s compu"ced f r o n t h i s repess:l.rs.0. e .n e i t h e r Vie c u r r e n t o r ?receding month.pts t o i n d i c a t e arariab:les used 2.'ier~i. the c u r r e n t value I s sel.en.n t h e atreanf'lm? genera. Accordingl. ~r e g r e s s i o n equation i s comyuted.n t u r n .ssing from t h e records of .ori coef f:ici.yess. Kormal. h. all a f f e c t e d c o r r e l a t i o n coef fic i e n t s a r e recomputed a f t e r each e s t i m a t e of rntssins d a t a .mi.rrel.ffici. 'IF . a.a- ti on coefPi. k'i Since. I n o r d e r t o r e c c n s t i ..ati.t h e r e alvays exists a valid.ated correla-tion coez"r"icients. Monthly streamfl. the correl. Inconsistency i n t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s causes t h e dependent v a r i a b l e t o be over-define6 and i s evideacad by z determi.:f. i ~ G .g moa?.y .tion procedure.. For t h e s e remaining s ta.e. re. val.y.i.mitsgiven by equation U. t u t e the missing value. standard d e v i a t e s are then converted t o flows by use of t h e P o l l a ~ i n . f o r a1.there a r e i n s u f 2'i.e.r of v ~z7.. e n t s .l remaining statLons i.hhreen t h e l.l.e be.l-l.n. and a n a ."ci.t a r e e s t a b l i s h e d f o r all. examining i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p %c re:Lated pai. This process i s repeated a s n e c e s s c q u n t i l consistency is reached (which must occur by the time t h a t only one independent v a r i ~ b l eremains ) .n .t and. it ~s taken a s t h e estl.trion.on aqua.i.3.uwi..s computed by selec-ting required c o e f f i c i .ilation of the eqtaati.

ces obtained i n t h i s m m e r o r of matrices read i n t o t h e coqputer wi. f u r t h e r ad.this occurs.jus.ng .11.on) f o r all s t a t i o n s i ? 2 Yne f i r s t month and discarding t h e f i r s t 2 years of generated flaws..0.s reached.rs't t e s t i n g a-1.tent trliad. correl. If'consistency i.mpos.tment i s required.en.consis.tra. i When 'the s e t of flows i s coqpl.ng e.etp.i.stent m a t ~ i xare moved t a ~ a r dt h e aversge value of d.ng a regression equation. and repeating a l i . This srocess i s s t a r t e d with average values (zero devis.a. t e s t of consistency of each compl. The . Generation of hypothetical strearnflmrs . I f .-briar?.is accomplished by cozputi.nd preceding month f o r a l l calendar months using e q u ~ t f o n11 and. by t h e Crout method (described i n e x h i b i t 1) f o r each s t a t i o n and month en4 then c o w u t i n g s t r e a n f l m ~ sf o r each stzti. coef'ficients i n each incons:i. Such fur. . si.ci.tency t e s t s u n t i l d l ma:tr:i.ent.t~t o 0btei.ces a r e consistent.ete.tion matrices should be consistent except .y smaller by 0. j. on the r a d i c a l i.O. If thi.at:ion coeffi. r a i s i n g t h e I m ~ e s tof t h e three c0effici. all.for -'crur?czti. success:ivel.n equation 11.the mu1tip.on coe:f f i c i e n t s i n t h e current a. corlsistency of each c o r r e l a t i o n m t r i x i s - a.i.ciezt.int: . Any consislency of matri.ti.1coeff:icients i n t h a t matrix u n t i l consistency . coeffi.ther a d j u s t - merit i s obtained by introciuci.ssured by Pl.ete n a t r i .s valse :is greater .nations of t r i 2 d . resu:l:t i n det.n a consis.natfon coeff:icients s e a t e r than '1.1 combi.than 1. : ~lis made by recomputi.errmi. s of correlati.on e r r o r s i n the conputer.2.le correl.on i n t u r n f o r one month at a time using the follcwing equation.s not reached.nce the d a t a arrays a r e ~0rnpl.ing t h e cons.

ows as recorded and f o r specified periods of reconstituted and generated flows by routine search technique. This val.ed t o all 3 dry months.ized corre1.1. m.0.tiple c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t Z = Randon number from normal.ation coefficient ( i n place of 1. These a r e defined a s follows: (I.i.l 12 months.ed 'to each of t h e 12 months. stand. The average value i s applied t o a l l intermediate months.98) i s applied t o each dry-season month. Because of 1imi-tati. P/iaximm.i.t season (3 months). the number of stati.) The average value of mean 1ogari. i n addition t o i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of w e t and dry seasons f o r each s t a t i o n .2) f o r each p&. and t h e value plus . This value plus 0. i s applied t o t h e o t h e r 2 months.15 (but not more than . This i s appl. However.ons i n computer memory s i z e and because of increasing change of comp.ard population k. t h e progrm can r e c o n s t i t u t e and generate s t r e d l o w s f o r . (5) The average i n t e m t a t i o n co'melztion c o e f f i c i e n t f o r d l a2 months i s applied t o each month f o r t h a t : p a i r of s t a t i o n s .thms of flows f o r t h e we. This i s appl.ue Illlinus 015 (but not l e s s than zero) i s applied t o each wet-season aonth.ons usable simultaneousSy i n t h i s program has been l i m i t e d t o 1.ows are obtained f o r t h e e n t i r e period of fl.2 i s a ~ p g i e dt o t h e middle month and t h e averaze minus 0. Provis:ion i s a l s o :included i n t h i s program f o r use of the generalized model r e q u i r i n g only 4 genera1. Mean l o g a r i t h m f o r months between dry and w e t seasons a r e interpolated I. expressed as a normal standard deviate ' p = Beta c o e f f i c i e n t computed from c o r r e l a t i o n matrix i = Month number 3 = S t a t i o n number n = Number of' :interrelated s t a t i o n s R = Mul.inearly.verage standard deviation f o r a l l 12 months. minimum and averase fl. ( 3 ) The a. 1.xtat5onal i n s t a b i l i t y with l a r g e r matrices.ized coefficients f o r each s t a t i o n ( i n place of 48) and one general. f K = Monthly f l as logarithm.i. ( 2 ) The average value of mean logarithms of flows f o r t h e dry season ( 3 months). (4) The average s e r i a l c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t f o r a1.ons.r of stat.

:It w i l l ord:i. Tn t h e generation process. it is necessary t o save bhe last f l o w generated f o r each s t a t i o n i n one set f o r use as t h e antecedent flaw i n s t a r t i n g generation i n the ~ l e x t set.n e a r l i e r passes.ata were arranged i.s reached. These a r e 2:ynored by . A f t e r s t a t i s t i c s a r e computed from transformed reconstituted flows. Column 1 of' each card i s reserved f o r card i. o. An example of i n p u t i s given i n e x h i b i t 3.n uni'ts t h a t cannot exceed this magnitude.000 u n i t s o r l a r g e r .ch successive group I.nari. Data.n order t o preserve important correl. . s t a t i o n i d e n t i f icati.so used i n preced.gnate NPASS and t o follow each group of f l a r da'ta with a standard- format card with NSTX (number of s t a t i o n s i n next a s s t h a t were al.ons.i. Data a r e entered consecu- t i v e l y on each card using a simple v a r i e t y of formats t o simplify punching and handl. it i s necessary t o desI. F i n a l regression equation d a t a f o r each pass a m read onto the samf! t a p e at t h e sane t i m e ( f o r use i n generation l a t e r ) . These a r e saved i n the QSTAP a r r a y with subscript ISTAP. t h e next.000. n. Once t h a t s'tati. they a r e retained throughout the recons t i t ~ t i 0 . they a r e read onto the s t a t i s t i c s t a p e ( a ~ t e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of s t a t i o n s i n t h e pass f o r f u t u r e reference).ing passes) and. Units should be indicated on one of t h e 3 header cards. it i s necessary t o keep t r a c k of tape records s o a s t o assure khat read statement does n o t read beyond the record mark and s o t h a t new v r i t e statements occur at t h e end of a l l previous write statements t h a t are t o be saved.r d.bl& cards causes t h e computer t o stop. A card with A i n column 1 f o l l a r e d by 4 .1. card with A i n c o l i m 1 i.any number o. Certain inadequacies of da'ta w i l l abort t h e job and was'te i n p u t cards unti. which i s used t o i d e n t i f y t h e f i r s t d a t a card. they a r e read onto t h e flow tape. t h e flow and s t a t i s t i c s tapes a r e searched separately f o r data f o r those s t a t i o n s already used t h a t a l s o o c c w i n the n a r pass. I n order t o read and w r i t e intermittently and a l t e r n a t i v e l y on t h e same tapes.ons f o r 'the new pass should 'then b..n column 1 of t h e f i r s t header card.ar d a t a f o r a l l s. These numbers must be l i s t e d i n t h e same sequence a s the:i. and consequently must be expressed i.stics a r e put on tape.tations. for t h e new stati.e read. Input is summarized .. None of these f l .in exhi'bits '7 and 8. saved only f o r the s e t of d a t a i n which they were reconstituted o r generated.ng cards. I n addition t o provid:i. Floirs h ~ ~ ~ e v eare azld r . u n t i l t h e last pass f o r t h a t s e t i s completed.ng fl. Computed and generated f l.dentification. a ~ s can occur i n a ye3-r l a t e r 'than the l a t e s t year f o r which flow data o c c m e a i n t h e f i r s t pass.ly be desirable t o inc1ud. ~ generat ion processes. A s soon a s flows a r e reconstituted f o r any pass.e one o r more s t a t i o n s from e a r l i e r groups i n ea.on numbers f o r those s t a t i o n s .ms cannot be 1.ati.f s'tations i n groups of 1 0 or l e s s . For each new pass.the computer except f o r the A i.

No sense switches are used.opment. Standard FORTRAN IY ins'tructions and random number generator a r e required. PEOPOSED F'IJTLJ1. Consequently.W DEVELOP1\. Pr-i nted output includes key Snprxt information f o r job identif %cation and al-l. Generated flows are put on magnetic tape. . Terms used i n the program a r e defined i.n exhibit 5 . It i s requested t h a t any user who f i n d s a n inadequacy o r d e s i r a b l e addition o r modification n o t i f y The Eydrologic Engineerin3 Center. the model i s under continuous study and devel. r e s u l t s of computations. 9. droughts with reasonable frequency. An example sf p r i n t e d output i s given i n exhibit 4 . and computed s t a t i s t i c s a r e punched on cards i n t h e f o m t usable l a t e r by t h e program.lEUI' There a r e cases where t h e model used h e r e i n does not reproduce historical.

s i n i t i a l col. If a. These c o n s i s t of NSTA co'lumns f o r t h e current-month values and a s i m i l a r number f o r ante- ced. Job s p e c i f i c a t i o n cards a r e read i.on.i. If raw data a r e t o be used. n g back 'to stetement k 2 . When dimensions a r e changed. and corresponding s t a .ta?e i s made i.umn number f o r anteced. Fl.ent-month values.mensions. a t ~ h i c h time a new job i s au. which i s read i n i f s t a t i s t i c s a r e t o b e provided. S t a t i o n Tden'tification f o r t h e NST4 s t a t i o n s must be i n t h e order i n which d a t a f o r 'those s t a t i o n s w e r e o r i g i n a l l y used. became search of d a t a and s t a t i s t . t h e corresponding v a r i a b l e ( s t a r t i n g with K ) should be chan.ars f o r 'these s t a t i o n s a r e read from t a p e IQTAP.:ions used from previous passes ~ n 3MSTXX .t) a r e encountered. NSm i s the nillnber of stat. Variables LQTAP and LSTAT a r e used t o keep t r a c k of 'tape p o s i t i o n f o r subsequent wpiting. as ori s i n a l l y computed and s t o r e d .s t h e stioscript of t h e first new s t a t i o n f o r t h e current pass. r e f e r r i n g t o see ti ons i d e n t i f i e d with t h e indicated l e t t e r i n column 2 of a comment card- Correlation c o e f f i c i e n t s . a s t h e s e are used t o prevent exceedence of di.1. For computers with worcl length smaller than 32 b i ts. may be defined i n s i n g l e -orecision. and b e t a coefr"icients. the . B. NS ' TA i s defined i n t h e program l a t e r and NSTAA and NSTA n u s t be a l s o .n t h l s order.ent-nonth c o e f f i c i e n t s .tonati. If 5 blank cards (with an A i n columri I of t h e f1.job wi. SECTION B NSTAX is number of columns I n c o r r e l a t i o n matrix.ly s t a . r a t h e r than compxted from r a w d a t a .n t h i s s e c t i o n . 5.pt i s used. These a r e computed from NSTA. t h e run w i l l be terminated. a r e i n 3 0 ~ b l e precision f o r matrix inversion camputation. Correlation c o e f f i c i e n t .rs.l. . R. many other v a r i a b l e s i n t h i s proTra?l should be i n double precision. u n t i l a card with A i n c o l m 1 i s encountered.n excessive subscri. cards and derinit-ions of variables. *Provided through t h e cooperation of t h e Texas Water Development Board. D E T A I I 3 D EXPLANATIOI\T OF COMWTER PROGRAM Much of t h e program i s exylained by comment. i c s on . Data f o r each new pass are processed a f t e r t r z n s f e r r i . r t e d . RA. i n order t o minimize computa- t i o n a l i n s t a b i l i t y . :In t h e multipass operat. NSTAA I. t i s % i c s from t a p e ISTAT.cal. Supplementary explanation f o l l m s .ged accordingly. be dumped.

H s s i . The s t a t i o n s are counted and t h e flows f o r each month at each s t a t i o n a r e counted f o r t h e purpose of computing frequency s t a t i s t i . Tandem s t a t i o n s are 1denti:fied f o r cases where a check on c0nsi. values . The -mi.nd t h e r e f o r e cannot be used f o r missing logarithms f . f o r tandem s t a t i o n s . 6 .entifZed consecutively by . maximum and minimm recorded flows f o r each calendar month .l. I n t h i s s e c t i o n . The year s u b s c r i p t i s computed. Some q u a n t i t i e s t o be accumulated a r e i. If the number of s t a t i o n s o r years exceeds i t s dimension l i m i t . and s u b s c r i p t s a r e i d e n t i f i. The f l a z array i s f i l l e d w i t h -1.nation.stency of generated quantitf es i s deemed appropriate. and 54.ed flow va3. me remainder of t h i s s e c t i o n is s e l f e x p l a n ~ t o r y . s o computed i. and average flows a r e computed f o r each s t a t i o n and comination.1 not be undefined.ng fl.mmf l o w f o r each s t a t i o n month i. n g values are i n d i c a t e d by an fmpossfily large number ( t h e -1 used f o r missi. S t a t i o n i d e n t i f i c a t i o n numbers a r e set t o a l.s d . S t a t i o n combination data a r e stored f o r the purpose of obtaining maximums and minimums (sec. Months are i. t h e total f l o w and number of recorded values are computed f o r computing a . months.m f o r each calendar month at each s t a t i o n i s computed and one ( constrained t o a. The number of s t a t i o n s i s permanently stored i n t h e N S W a r r a y f o r later i d e n t i f i c a t i o n i n multipass operations.s accomplished here. t h e w a t e r year and f o r durati.n order t o avoid negative logarithms l a t e r . The logarithm transform of fluws I. and f o r consistency-tes t s t a t i o n s .to in6i. t h e average f1.i. Durations do not span a break i n any record.aw increment and o t h e r s t a t i s t i c s later.arge number s o they wi. SECTION C S t a t i o n d a t a can be read i n random order. t h a t absolute value .tia1ized.tion D) of wei&t.the variable 14 s t a r t i n g with t h e month preceeding 'the f i r s t yeaT of d a t a . Before t h e l o g transform.cate missing values.ues :Later. and d a t a f o r t h e s e are r e j e c t e d .ows i s a reasonable logarithm a.d. t h e job i s aborted.fl. minimum of 0. except t o s t a t e t h a t permanent i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s t a t i o n numbers a r e given for s t a t i o n s i n co&. For each s t a t i o n and calendar month.ons of 1.ni. c s l a t e r . Q u a n t i t i e s a r e rounded off and printed i n fixed -point format.1 flow u n i t ) i s added t o each f l a w . Stations are i d e n t i f i e d by s u b s c r i p t i n t h e order i n which d a t a for each s t a t i o n a r e f i r s t read. If the ninimum dbserved flow f o r 'that s t a t i o n month i s negative.ed f OP rapid computation later.ni. with diagnostic printout. Negative s u b s c r i p t s w i l l occur i f data are f o r years earlier than the s t a r t i n g year indicated on B card.

on t h a t would be most useful :in ad j us'ting s t a t is t i e s f o r s ' t a t i o n months with incomplete record. I n a n optional r o a t i n e t h a t follows.the f i r s t approxi.j. Correla. values. These items con- s t l .station anlh calendar nonth i s adjusted individually and i .n 0.on of 'the mat. deviations a r e adjusted :in accordance with t h e P o l l w i n g equations : where primes :indicate l.on coef - f i c i e n t s a r e f i r s t s e t t o -4.i.. Then accumulations of .ri.to 1 4 t r i a l s ) until skew i s withi.en'ts a r e computed.tion &ri.s then made . Tf more t h a n two items of data.y used s t a t i s t i c s -.to determi. since skew and c o r r e l a t i o n computations require a t l e a s t t h r e e items of d a t a .x 'to .s'ti. and t h e new portion is not n e c e s s a ~ i l ysyrmnetrical.'i.ar complete arrays of average values and root-mean-square values f o r on1.0 i n order t o i d e n t i f y those not computed l a t e r f o r l a c k of ssf i c i e n t observed data. S t a t i o n s w i t h l e s s than three years of data f o r any calendar month are deleted. t h e correl. . the increment f o r each . a i l a r l y computed.cs. are a v z i l - able.ong-period.1 o r l a r g e r than 0. and those below .values axe s i . and the means and standard. i.agonal i n t h e correlati.s set t o 1. s o t h a t t h e :flow reconstLtuf. subscripts a r e 1 f o r t h e short- recora sttition and 2 f o r t h e l.st.. s t i c s f o r each calend.1. t e r a t i v e l y (up .ogarithms t o an approxi.re used s o t h a t s t a t : i s t i c s are comparable 'to other common1.the various q u a n t i t i e s required a r e computed f o r a l l .cs :for s h o r t -rec ord st a t i o n s o A l . .ues a r e encountered.ar month and s'tat:ion a r e computed.f i c i e n t s 'between 'the current and preceding month ' s .0 a. t u t e an excensi.y 'those log- a r i t h m s common t o each p a i r of s t a t i o n s are found f o r later use i n adjust. Log- arithms t o t h e base 1.the main di. Coe:ffi c i e n t s f o r t h e main di.frequency s t a t i .ne t h e s'tati. An increment needed 'to convert t h e I. i:f any missing val.0.ation coef f ici. C 0eE.ces a r e computed h e r e f o r the purpose of adjusting frequency s'tat:i.tems above . using a l l d a t a common t o t h e two s t a t i o n s involved.1 of zero. A v a r i a b l e n C O N 3.ong-record s t a t i o n and.ing stat.the main diagonal are s e t equal t o t h e i r symmet:rical.the trans:f orm. Simil.agona1 are s e t t o 1.on matrix f o r each month. Af'ter t h e logarithm trans. which doubles i. element .ts s i z e .fo m .i s a l s o added before . 1 correlati. A variable LNDC is s e t t o 1 i f . A search i.mately normal dis'tri'bution i s a l s o computed a s an a l t e r n a t i v e f u t u r e transform.- mation of increments c m e s any one 04 t h e skew c o e f f i c i e n t s t o be smaller than 0.on r o u t line w i l l be c a l l e d l a t e r .the r i g h t .

A1. 117 t h e r e i s a c o n f l i c t . This i s t o assure t h a t frequency curves do not cross w i t h i n three standard deviations from t h e mean.t = Pearson Type I11 standard. Values f o r a l l 12 months a r e contained on one card.f t h e variance of e i t h e r variable approximates zero. t h e standard deviation of t h a t stati. with a d i f f e r e n t card f o r each p a i r of s t a t i o n s .evi. s i n c e the c o e f f i c i e n t w i l l be used t o e s t a b l i s h regression equations . An optional check of consistency of standard deviations between adjacent s t a t i o n s f o r the same month I. sLnce t h e computation of t h e coef- f i c i e n t i s highly unstable and since I t s use would be of l i t t l e v d u e . deviate g = skew coefl:icient New c o r r e l a t i o n matrices a r e then computed. An automatic check i s made t o assure t h a t cards are i n t h e required order of columns and rms in t h e c o r r e l a t i o n matrix. Correl. - X = mean logarithm S = standard deviation of t h e logari'thms R = correlation coefficient. S . . and t h e two s t a t i o n s i ~ v o l v e dare i d e n t i f i e d on t h e sm card. t h e portion ~f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n matrix above t h e main diagonal f o r a l l months and the e n t i r e c o r r e l a t i o n matrix r e l a t i n g current ana preceding month's values a r e read. When generalized s t a t i s t i c s a r e used.s .5-n diagonal are then f i l l e d i n and values af 1.then apgli.m e t r i c a l elements below 'the m. All frequency s t a t i s t i c s a r e then prfnted out. The sign of t h e correlation c o e f f i c i e n t i s preserved.by subtracting t h e mean and dividing by t h e s'tandard d.ents are s e t t o zero i.ation coeffici. only one c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t f o r the e n t i r e year i s read.mate Pearson Type IIL transform 1. but card order i s t h e same.s next made. For jobs where c o r r e l a t i o n d a t a are given. based on t h e normalized v a r i a t e s and using t h e same standard procedures previously employed f o r c o r r e l a t i n g logarithms.I flms a r e next s'tandwdized.on designated i n t h e input data as the dependent variable i s modi- f i e d accordi. An approxi.ngly.a'tlion f o r t h e month and s t a t i o n .0 a r e placed I n the main diagonal.ed as follows: where : K = normdl s'tmdard deviate .

justed c w f f i c i e n k had already been used i n another t r i a d 'test.lendar month t h e e n t i r e c:orrelat:on matrix t o be t h e r i z h t of t h e main diagonal f o r misiing c o r r e l a t i o n coef- f i c i e n t s due t o t h e nonexistence of a t f e a s t three years of sia1. Where a c o r r e l a t i o n matrix is not t o be used f o r reconst.ents.mum mean I.ons on each card. i.i. the upper l i m i t of' R i j i s constrained t o the lowest of' a l l upper l i m i t s computed. The months of maxim1. t o assure proper subscri.to corresponding subscripts. c s a r e then read. If Lhis element i.tion order. converked .o thi.s raised. When gen- e r a l i z e d s ' t a t i s ' t i c s a r e used..tut5ng d a t a b u t might be inconsistent. a Lriad consistency t e s t c a n be made i. and consequently t h a t previ.. t o 'be repeated. A s soon as a c o e f f i c i e n t between ixqo variables i s i d e n t i f i e d as missing.ard deviation f o r the year.possfbl? t h a t t h e ad. the value i s a l s o entered f o r t h e element syn-metrically across t h e main dianonal. and this contains t h e max:imum and mini. a search of the correlation matrix i s made LO find established c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s between each of these variabl-es ( i and j ) and any other variable (I. A checlr.n t h i s sec. and t e s t i n g t h e lowest one t o determine -whether it i s a'bove minimum cons%rai. This s e c t i o n searches f o r each ca. where NSTA i s t h e number of s t a t i o n s .thms a r e a l s o read and. If not. These s u b s c r i p t s will d.s properly.ogar:ithms and 'the averzze stand. i s made of the sta.).s above t h e main diagonal.neous d a t a f o r t h e month. % A s each successive t h i r d variable with established c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i s found.llu.m and rmirlimum mean logari.y values and stakion identi.s no :incons:istent t r i a d (INK = 0 ) .nt established by the equation i n t h e preceding s t a t i o n .ous test would need.s read. I n order t o d. it i s .pting. and t h e l m e r l i m i t i s constrained t o t h e highest of all such l o v e r l i m i t s computed. w i t h 12 mon'th1.i.ng all poups of t h r e e r e l a t e d c o r r e l a t i o n coeffici. Frequency s t a t i s t i .t i. 'When $he e n t i r e matrix has been searched the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t is estimated as the average of these two constrained 'Limits.if t h e y e w used i n 'the s'tudy does not begin wi'th Jmwry.iffer from t h e callendar month number . t o t h a t minimum. until a complete search revea1. The range within which c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e two variables must l i e i n order t o be mzthematicall:~consis- t e n t with t h e c o r r e l a t i o n with the t h i r d variable i s established by use of t h e following euuation: Rij -.fitz. t h e enti. The search f o r f u r t h e r missing c o r r e l a t i o n coefEicients i s then conti. 4 cards per s t a t i o n . When t h i s i s done.ficat. This i s done by examini.re matrix i s searched up t o 12 NSTA Limes. . ordy one card per s t a t i o n i.tion.?cl.

This i s done by reducing FA6 i.1 consistency p r e v a i l s . When c o n s i s t e n c y i s establi. a s e a r c h sf a l l o t h e r s t a t i o n s i s made t o determine whether recorded o r previously r e c o n s t i t u t e d flows e x i s t for t'ne cu-rrer~?. o n ma.na.n".s mile and t h e smoothing process i s r e p e a t e d up .ti.ng t h e m1~1tipl.osi K.tiozl coeff i .trices mist be reexanined. o ~gene.x f o r any s t a t i o n and anx month exceeds 1 . and a.the c o r r e l a t i o n matr'ix t h a ' t wou:ld be used i n f1 . consistency of t h e c o r r e l a b i o n m a t r i x f o r each rnont"? i s ma3e by c o n s t r u c t i n g f o r each s t a t i o n .ngSUM by t h e excess of determi.>::Li. nonth o r . and i f t h i s f a i l s .e determination coeff icien'k . two o r more m a t r i c e s .d t e s t ( s e c t i o n J ) by 0.n t s w i t h t h e dependent v a r i a b l e i s t e m p o r a r i l y s t o r e d i n t h e NVAR ( M S T A ~ ~column ) - t o a s s u r e t h a t c o e f f i c i e n t s r e l a t i ng i n d e p n d e n t v a r i a3les 3 ~ l ? .2 and r e p e a t i n g a l l t r i a d t e s t s . and i s f i n a l l y used t o r e l o c a t e t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s in-aoltsing t h e dependent v a r i a b l e .s t h e average of a l l c o r r e l a t i o n coef f i .s be-minated. i f ~ o tf o r t h e _areceding month.. X 'irariable ITEMP counts t h e n\xlliber of independent vari.i r t l have s u f f i c i e n t array spsce ( t h e y cannot exceed NSTA i n number) . a l l c o r r e l a t i . obtained. If one is Touhd.ion of det.1 ove-ra? 1 cons i s i..plyi.th d a t a . \$hen one i s found.ix f o r t h e month.ete m a t r i c e s L are x i .ermi. c i e n t and adding t h i .2 un i5.n t h a t matrix.n t h e complete ma. and t h i s r e q u i r e s some careful. c a s e s . It i s incremented a f t e r i t s set of c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s are s t o r e d i n t h e R a r r a y . I f t h i s does n o t occur.rrce some c o e f f .ti:. A t e s t f o r o v e r a l l coiisi s t e n c p i s made i n s. y is reached The t e s t f o r overall. If FAC i s reduced t o zero and c o n s i s t e n c y i s not. I n recofisti. si.ng r o u t i n e i s used f o r etch i n c o n s i s t e n t matrix. The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f f - c i .eac. c i e n t s i. i c i e n t s are (:emon .ns. s product t o t h e proZuct of the complement of' t h i s m u l t i p l i e r and t h e v a l u e of t h e ele- m e n t i n t h e inconslsten. A coeff'irrent F'P-C or" t h e r a d i c a l i n t h e eauatlox i s used i n ortier t o cir:+ain cornnlete m a t r i x consistency i n d i f f i c u l t . n t e d out and e s s e a t i a l el-ements a-re punched i f d e s i r e d . If no independent v a r i a b l e s wi.n averagri.shed a l l compl.pul.t.natlon cozPfi. it w i l l c o n s t i t u t e a n independent v a r i a b l e f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e missing v a l u e .n new a r r a y s f o r computation purposes.a. a s e a r c h i s made f o r each month of record s t a r t i n g w i t h t h e f i r s t f o r s t a t i o n s t'nat have no r e c o r d d u r i n g t h a t month ($=T) .c:ient of 'che m3tri. A new computat. FAC i s successfvely reduced by 0. 0 ."itrix.n t h e irri.to n i n e t i n e s unti. mani. and each element 5 s modified by m~xlti.cien"i.-Luting missing d a t a .ra. index of MCB i s set t o 1. t h e job 5. If 'the d e t e r m i n a t i o n coeFfi. whenever nnqs i h l e by thSs r?ea.on f o r t h a t s t a t i o n and com- puti.ation o f s u b s c r l . The averazed o r smoothed v a l u e s a r e repl-aced i. A q u a n t i t y SIR4 is computed a.ables ( s t a t i o n s f o r which recorded o r r e c o 2 s t i t u t e d d a t a are a v a i l a b l e ) . p t s . and F t s value and p e r t i n e n t c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s are s t o r e d i.

recomputing al. I n t h e case where the varftn'o1. t h e c o r r e l a t i o n a r r a y reconstructed accordingly. IRDC i s set t o 1. coef f i c ients After checking f o r s u f f i c i e n t (three record and nonzero variance.0. t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t is s e t t o zero. t h e variable wfth t h e smallest c o r r e l a t i o n ' c o e f f i c i e n t i s eliminated. . The missing value i s then computed by use d9f t h e regression equation an6 adding a random component normally distributed with zero mesa and with variance equal t o t h e e r r o r v a ~ i a n c e of t h e regression equation.5 or smaller than -. the flow t a p e i s read u n t i l the proper position f o r w r i t i n g t h e newly computed flow d a t a on that tape i s reached. and sums of l o g a ~ " i t b squares. I n t h e usual case where the sfmple c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t between any variable and the dependent variable ts positive. This process i s repeated u n t i l aHI required conditions e x i s t .e c o r r e l a t e s negatively with the dependent v a r i a b l e . t h e reason- a b l e range is -1.5. a c o r r e l a t i o n i s made with the preceding value f o r t h e same sLation and t h a t precedinag value i s a r b i t r a r i l y set a t t h e average f o r t h e month. unreasonable c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e assumed t o be those l a r g e r than 1. If t h i s happens o r i f the determination c o e f f i c i e n t does not l i e between 0 and 1. Lf t h e eoefffcient i s above t h e main dia- gonal of the c o r r e l a t f o n matrix. Then t h e standard deviates e r e converted t o flows by reversing t h e P e a s o n type 111 transform.ement. As soon as t h e missing value . and c r o s s products are incremented i n preparation fol. as can happen i. Xf the s t m d m d deviation sf e i t h e r variable is very small.n t h e f l r s t month of record.5 t o 0.1 a f f e c t e d c o r r e l a t i o n . and t h e regression equation recomputed. The variable having t h e lmest absolute value of c o r r e l a t i o n with t h e dependent v a r i a b l e i s i d e n t i f i e d .is e s t f m t e d a search i s made f o r a l l established values i n t h e current and preceding moneh with which i t i s t o be correlated. and headings ape printed f o r w r i t i n g flows on t h e p r i n t e r l a t e r . multiplying by the stsulda~ddeviation. The .O i s multiplied by a maximum of 0. SECTION M After all flows a r e reconstituted.increment is then subtracted m d i f t h e r e s u l t i n g value i s negative f o r a v a r i a b l e with zero lower limit. t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t 5s recomputed. which c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e s t o r e d i n a d f f f e r e n t malrix. The regressi6n equation and determination coefficient a r e then computed using subroutine CROTJT. t h i s process of a d j u s t i n g t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t is applied t o those values next. and b e t a c o e f f i c i e n t s are searched i n order t o eliminate dl unreasonable c o e f f i c i e n t s .laaing month. I n t h e case of reconstituted flows. t h e PearsonType I11 transform i s constrained s o t h a t the excess of 'che standard deviate over and above 2. Since estimation of a missing value a f f e c t s correla- t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s between variables f n t h e current and fol.aye found. it i s set t o zero.5.2 ( i f t h e standard 7 EXHIBIT 1 . adding t o the mean and taking t h e a n t i l o g a r i t h . its value i s a l s o assigned t o sym- metrical el. If an unacceptable c o e f f i c i e n t i s found.

After convertl.5 higher (constratned b e l o w . printed out. generali. Comebation c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r the dry season are -3.ng devi.esired. t h e variable I!EWS i s s e t t o 2 and c o m ~ u t a t i o nis transferred t. i f desired.di.i. ( i f IGNRL equd.ons are 'then computed. using ITRNS='l as a r e t u r n indicator. Means are averaged f o r the t h r e e w e t t e s t consecutive months and t h e t h r e e d. Adjusted. s t r a i g h t averages of d l 3.s two) .ddle month of t h e w e t season i s .riest consecutive months and t h e seasonal timdng noted.zed s t a t i s t i c s are compu:ted. A s fnd. i f desired.@) than t h e a n n u d average. Next. S%andard deviations f o r a l l l2 months are averaged. and those f o r t h e w e t season are . t h e frequency st a t i s t i . using ITR!lS as a r e t u r n i n d i c a t o r again. and means f o r the t r a n s i t i o n seasons are i n t e r p o l a t e d l i n e a r l y .2 higher than t h e wet season average and means f o r t h e o t h e r k o months a r e . c s are recomputed i n order t o agree accurately with observed and reconstituted data. s't.l lmrer . Flows f o r t h e s p e c i f i e d s t a t i o n combina- t.a'tistics are printed. The variable ITM? keeps a record of t h e r e m i n i n g years whose maximum and mini.mm flows have not been searched y e t . Generalized s t a t i s t i c s are then printed out. Next. i f d. Means f o r the d r y seasons are wxifom. generalized s t a t i s t i c s read i n s e c t i o n H a r e used t o compute required arrays of s t a t i s t i c s . It i s a moderation of t h e extrapolation r a t h e r than an abrupt truncation. If a consistency test is c a l l e d f o r . The s t a t i s t i c s are .icated.in f u t u r e passes. !he mean f o r t h e ni. F l w s a r e punched on cards. and the consi.stent corre1. and incon- s i s t e n t flows are i d e n t i f i e d f o r printout and changed t o the l i m f t of consistency.w i s made consistent with t h e sum s f upstream f1.o near t h e end of section F.I5 l o w (constrained above zero). M a i r n u m n and minimum recorded flows are computed by t r a n s f e r t o sectf on S.viation exceeds 0. a l s o punched) by t r a n s f e r t o sec'tlon K. The downstream f1.ettes t o flows. NQTAP i s incre- mented and represents t h e t o t a l number of records on the tape.ation matrix i s p r i n t e d (and. A l l of t h e s e o p r a t i o n s are i n accord with t h e generalized model developed i n HEC.2 nonthly comela- t i o n coefficients i n every category are taken. .3) . and w r i t t e n on t h e flow tape f o r use . if desired. where the test i s made and t h e t r a n s f e r index causes a r e t u r n t o t h i s portion of t h e program. 'Phis simply prevents ob t a i n i n g unreasonably extreme values due t o sampling e r r o r s .then punched. The t e s t f o r tandem s t a t i o n consistency i s next nade. Skew and increments a r e set t o zero.m~.

except f o r truncation of computated intermediate variables ) . I:n any pass a f t e r t h e first. and consistency operations gerformed on a l l c o r r e l a t i o n matrices.?.1. re- gression equations f o r each staf. a variable m1W i s used t o identi. I n t h e multi- pass operation. I f the projected f ' . neces - sary s ' t a t i s t i c s a r e contained i. and t h i s tape must be rewound. these are d l w r i t t e n on tape ISTST a t t h i s point. a t the end of which s y n t h e t i c sequences w i l l have a v i r t u a l l y random start.t. Regressfon equations we csmpted i n subrouti.tipass operation. For other s t a t i o n s .the >receding sequence . only t h e beta and a l i e n a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s need be retained. s t a t i 03s a r e i. a ~f o r t h e f i . In any sequence a f t e r the f i r s t . the computer i s next s e t ilp t o generate k?o years of flows.ete seerch.n .SECTION P After obtaining monthl. If any correlation matrix formed i s inconsistent (which should not occur a t t h i s stage. After t h i s . F l m s a t each s t a t i o n a r e correlated with flows of the antecedent month a t t h a t s t a t i o n and a t a l l s t a t i o n s f o r which the current monthss f l m s have not y e t been generated. since any c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t might have changed. Flows a r e generated i n t h e s t a t i o n order i.ch pass i n order t o p e r ~ i ta compl. a l l regression equations must be r e c o n p t e d . r s t month t o be generated is the l a s t fl.n the order needed on tape ISTAT.n t h e @TAF array Por mu. the year number of t h e f i x s t year ol" each sequence i n the multipass .d. a ~ generated. a l l necessary s t a t i . After such a t r a n s f e r . a t r a n s f e r t o s e c t i o n J i s effected. SECTION Q A routine f o r p r o j e c t i n g h i s t o r i c a l sequences i n t o t h e f u t u r e i s employed here. before ea.s not used.. fl.n e g r l i e r passes f o r t h e saqe period ( t h e same sequence of d a t a ) must be read from tape IQTA-I.ipass feature i.hon and calendar month a r e computed. i n a d d i t i o n t o the frequency s t a t i s t i c s . I n the multi:pas s operation.n memory.nws f.y s t a t i s t i c s and c o r r e l a t i o n matrices. The variable NA i s computed f o r the subscript of 'J t h a t conforms t o the f i r s t month of projected flows. ~ i.n which d a t a o r s t a t i s t i c s are read and are generated f o r each month at a l l s t a t i o n s before proceeding t o t h e next month.ne CROUT. I n s t a r t i n g t o generate flaws. month s p e c i f i e d (by input data) to be generated. L a ~ routine i s not t o be used. s t i c s and Elms :for generzit-ing are i.for t h a t s'tation. If t h e mult. f 1 . and t h e s e a r e saved i. t h e preced:ing E 3 .or t h e current month a r e used.extified and d.ow i. Values of Q P W (previous month's deviate ) f o r each s t a t i o n is determined as the transform of t h e flow f o r t h e month p r e - ceding t h e f i r s t .

tions a't each s t a t i o n i s mde f o r t h e sequence.p i. because i. e l/IA has already been set up a s t h e subscrigt of Q correspondi. Also.y' entered i n t o .nimwc val. I f more than 19 years (an a r b i t r a r i l y selected length) of f la? a r e b e i n 2 generate6 i r r any sequence.ve number (T) .rrespond -to t h e f i .ne 1. punched.~ essi o n equati.ine.Elms. Their unadjusted mean and standard deviztion e. e a s t ? M G years must have been senerated before xaxinm and mi. If all passes a r e nbt completed.stor:ical Plor?s recorded t o t h e c u r r e n t .es only when t h e nufiber oP years remaining f o r generation i. k s ~ i . a check i s made f o r t h e md.tion Q i. Each generated _flm7 i s immedia. Since t h i s r o u t i n e i s used.ues of generated .ows t o be generated ( f o r use I n projecting 1ii.t. l .t:i.s not being . V a r i a l ~ l e sAVG m d SDV a r e used t o compute t h e mean and standard deviation of the deviates f o r each flow sequence. f i r s t month of fl.n t h a t pass. d e v i a t e s a= adjusted s o t h a t their m e a n i s zero and varlance 1. a check f o r negative values i s then made.ss rout.0. dependi.re p r i n t e d . For ~rariables with zero n a t u r a i l i m i t . These a r e l a t e r used t o adJust all devlates s o t h a t t h e neans and standard devi. never again be used 2. ( t h e f i r s t two years generated f o r a random s t a r t ) . Therl they a r e trarrsformed t o flows. trsing stored r e . t o t h e .ng on t h e t ~ of~ operation.the QPm array.11.s made. co-nsi stency t e s t s between s t a t i o n s are made.ons and a random component. a p o s i t i v e value of JX i s l. t t e r . (.ne o r t h e generation r o u t i n e .ti:tuted flows a s w e l l as for generated.te1. and . m sums a r e i n i t i a t e d a t an extremely l a r g e negative number and minimum sums as an extremely :large positi.to determine whether t h e next ste.to sec. are set up t o co. Trl the ~ u l t i p a s sroutine. F l w s are then printed and. F l w conibinations a r e then computed.ng .nimua values are com~uted ( t h i s appll. i f desired.ooked f o r t o assure t h a t flows generated a r e not t o be discarded.ipa. fSo~rs(as devia. Then a r o u t i n e search of flow s u m f o r t h e specifi.9.atTons i n every qenerated sequence will be t h e same as those or" t h e h i s t o r i c a l sequence. Ta St ~r a n s f e r I n d i c a t o r i s used .tes) m e w r i t t e n on tape a t t h e end of each pass. ~ ~ O T .LpREV f o r each s t a t i o n has been i d e n t i f i e d as t h e previous month's flow f o r t h a t s t a t i o n . 1 . i f c a l l e d for. Variables 3. Passes are comgleted f o r t h i s sequence o r i f t h e rrU:ltipass rou. If all. e t r a n s f e r .on i n each successive sequence. If t h e l a .operation. t and l a s t year of generati.ts preceding flow wi. r s .s back to t h e yeconstitution routi.ed dura.A and NJ.CG).results tire p r i n t e d out. t h e l a s t sequence does not equal IYM. t i m e .ows a r e then generated f o r each s t a t i o n . f o r recons. and. =d t h e l a s t flow f o r each s t a t i o n i s stored i n t h e GTAF a r r a y f o r use in t h e next sequence. Fl. at. Before computing maxix~unanrd mi.

--- INTEGER ----. WORD C1 --P.11320929011-06 IBM 360 S e r i e s 31 65539 2147453647 O. t h e argumcrlt n i i l s t be i n i t i a l i z e d a t t h e beginning of e a c h job. ---- GE 200 S e r i e s 19 1027 52[+287 0. t h e n t h o argument muse b e i n i t i a l i z e d a t t h e v e r y besinning of the program and never r e i n i t i a l i z e d .3552713678E-14 . T h i s random number f u n c t i o n i s f o r a b i n a r y maclline and t h e c o n s t a n t s milst: be computed a c c o r d i n g t o t h e number of b i t s i n an i n t e g e r word.P any.1907348631:-05 GE 400 S e r i e s 23 4099 8388607 0.--. Tke advantage of this l a t t e r o p t i o n o c c u r s when one of t h e j o b s must be re-run f o r some minor r e a s o n as t h e same random numbers w i l l be used and t h e r e s u l t s w i l l b e comparable. C2 C3 . The numbers generated a r e uniformly d i s t r i b u t e d i n t h e i n t e r v a l O t o 1. I f i t i s desired t o have d i f f e r e n t s e t s o f random numbers f o r each of s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t s e t s of computations ( j o b s ) t h a t are r u n s e q u e n t i a l l y on t h e same program. . If g r e a t e r than zero. The l o c a t i o n of t h e i n i t i a l i z i n g s t a t e m e n t i s important and depends on t h e r e s u l t s d e s i r e d . I f i t i s p e r m i s s i b l e t o u s e t h e s a n e sequence of random numbers f o r each j o b . The argument must be i n i t i a l i z e d t o z e r o i n the main program.ng e q u a t i o n s : Constant one (CI) = 2 + Constant two ( ~ 2 )= 2' -1 3 Constant t h r e e (C3) = 1./2. i s s tczrted .owi. i. a transfer t o s e c t i o n Q i s made a f t e r adjusting years yet to be generated. Nherwise the Job is ended and a new . Three c o n s t a n t s must b e computed by t h e foll. a check i s made of remain in^ years t o be generated.4G 566128713-09 IBX 7840 and 35 262147 34359738367 0.- COI\I'STALJTS COIPUTER . \fiere: B = number of 5 1 t s i n a n i n t e ~ e rword The c o n s t a n t s f o r some of t h e common computers a r e l i s t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g table: SIZE OF --.29L0383046E-10 7098 S e r i e s II II UMIVAC 1108 CDC 6000 S e r i e s 48 16777219 281474976710655 0. The f u n c t i o n i s c a l l e d from t h e main program by a s t a t e m e n t similar t o t h e following: A = RNGEN (IX) Where A is some f l o a t i n g p o i n t v a r i a b l e name and I X i s some inreger v a r i a b l e name.job. The argument name I X need n o t b e tile same i n t h e main program and t h e f u n c t i o n . used.

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snob $ha% a = p + q 9 r 9 s + t.%. The pat* and oheak oolwm sm written ae fallows t . and. April H* h e of the best -methods f o r solving sy~temsof l i n e a r equations on desk calculating machines w s developed by P. Suppose %kt in a multiple correlation analysis it i s regdred to solve the fo1lcwh. the canstant t e r n by hatter %. P I Of ql-Mtk%~ EZ h Xi?WS &ma 043 The method is besf explabedl 'ag an exmaple. 3 and bF %a demta the ressgectim q w a t i c x m ~ A oomtlnu~laaaheek on the comp~7~tatioraa as they pmgress m y bo ob%ahed by add* to the matrix of %he above system a aolmm of u f s . T h i s method is based on the elimination method. Crout fn l*l. wfwg e. b -b ' d b5* 3. D. 2.hod the o w f f i o i m % aand e c m a ~ b t terns of' the equations are written in the Porn of ga "~~atpl%sr. 4 ofs the b t e by tkm lle%$em For simplicity let us rql-e the o ~ ~ f f P a I e n % P e q p a" and s.'~wPoh Pa 8 . w i % h the ~18blaulatiozm amsagedl in ep$amtAs order ~o a8 t o f a c i l i t a t e theimp s t c e m p l i ~ k e n t on a b e g ealcuh%or.g syetem of linear eqtzatio& to obtain ths unknown values of b2. In tWe me.lub~orip$@ 1.

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hfpo~ each el@mmt131 the oolum fp~m3. ~ & the~ (n+l)th row w i l l be o e except 20. 5 It is v e q hpor$lan-t that the comp%a%iom be oarrded t o a suffi- oi@n%numbm of digf t 8 . b3. %he eompu-batisns in %b% one g1m %he sum sf the el%mentreh~the e r a w t o the right 02 %he ~ & B %~~~~~e ~ ~ !b3% The e%emn$@ of %he de-a m a w to * right 0% the p r f n ~ i p ~ l diagana. bo%hin oomputfng eosffieient s and sons-t %@EBB of or% .@ ~ 2 $ 8 9 BXW -.1 $ o m a qy-s%emof equations whf eh nay now be used to ao18lpute ti10 own values of bp. %ha h ~ ~% W O8 1 . th (4) the elenents i n the (n+l)-.s a h o k am.X!keilpenl die& T b &eak eohmm (u) of the derived makrix %-a a 00~1t.la& 00~ta*d. mb-ma pmkot of the s e a a d e1wmnt a w e (x) by the t to -+hal e f t o f $he of * pxd.column aml their triaal e ~ ~ ham % been~ rrecorded. l diagonal in %he ). 4 9 1 8 t i ~ e lSINLU r %XTOZ?S h t h coeff&oiesa$s and eomtant terns of the azdginal equations to result in F ~ = Z & % ~ V @ k%I?@!3 & 8ELW9P8 bl the -p%Zhd S O ~ U ~ ~ @ Iof ¶ $ t b WlklQWl3Se . b4 aad b by sucoessive rrubstih%ion. quatioas and in eomputhg the elements ~f the d@X'f~@d = $ E k e It i k 4 p ~ s s i b l ef o r ~ . (x) Bbol % ~ i 3 i W ~ % @QU&S %he 00 s1m-t of %he &TeE TEBtTiX B D %b ~ pmBh~% of -&a ~ 1 above y (x) the elies-ea%bita&Piely $0 the la$% 02 %he p h o i p a .

P.va% matrbc arises tb 108s of P ~ d $ w~ i @ i f i ~ m & It.o $list the gQ@ffi~i@r&s mdl e m t a t % to s a&ffeien% number of dtB~imabto p m h a e st. f&% eQ@z%ea%~ of %he r%-%.m a t e s t soume of %-x? h ~60-e.least fiw si@if'icum% U t e r 9n the malle~stqteatiw. but to not Pees than six signffi-t ai&%s. ~ % S m b t m ~ t d o ~ ~ e This nawt be gwaded a g c b a t andl o n b ozw . . am3 t h a t the elemants of the derive& ma%rjlebe oamied to one more deaimal $him %hi@..

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a r n d rsn d w adorn e e e a e e e s e e s o e c o o 4 8 . ~-O do mmn Q O e 6 0 0 0 4 * 8 B 4 e m e * I I . 0P a s ~ m ~ r . ~ .r~ximr?. P D. o u ~ ) ~. s ! .t " ~ C T m C 3 ( Z I m o ~ m o .G~fr-C3d.D Q ~ O Q O D D ~ ~ B + ~ ~ N C O d ~ f i m r c m m r c .--l I Q S + ~ Q 3 ' 3 F ~ $ ~ ~ D 6 N ~ h O D W ~ ~ ~ R J o ~ ~ ~ B\ ~Q Q c .-i ~ ~ N .cF-OP-3%J\JGdriJN~ncr mmbinr-r-rcr-ON 4 . ~ ~ ~ m 0 ' 3 0 ' a G Z a N ( 3 H 4 4 e N e % J & Q 0 mrn. 4 m m em00 e T T ~ F T ~ F P N .mo fo. cU B 0 (P e OdlU 4 4 4 * 0 (D b ig ornu' 6 6 U Y NNN e e a O.~ h r n mO N D ~ e e 9 a a a m m 0 ~ o~m * m m o ~ * e m e e e s a e * e s a e e m $ 8 4 .-.jru t n a ~ e a a e 0 a e m e e c e e e e e 4 .

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IC.073 -1.728 el44 a348 -be489 -1.l~ .112 .7 11C 111 RATIO 1.513 .000 1eOGC MA#IHUN VOLUMES 3 F K E C O k D E D FLOWS STA 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1-WO 6-MO 54-MO AW HO 10 7 5 2 31 73 33 121 33 18 11 3 1 I 12 1 302-99999998 ae If 0 34 6 14 49 33 152 118 2 0 ~ 288 21b 43 12 288 110139 2656 45 111 119 30 43 146 101 330 403 8 1010 1030 27C 67 1010 3579-99999998 204 996 157 4b 89 228 lo7 566 553 900 13C9 A219 314 aG 1309 4738-99399993 299 WHNIHUW VOLUMES ST A 1c 1l 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1-MU b-MO 54-140 &WHO 107 r! 1 2 17 37 14 12 4 1 1 ? 0 o 99999999 A10 3 3 3 t 15 34 48 56 36 11 5 3 3 36 2515 bl1 11 12 13 13 37 116 165 366 386 1110 2 tl 13 11 19b 99999999 996 14 17 24 45 95 187 226 469 473 136 33 15 14 239 99999995 ST& ITEM i? 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 b 7 8 9 107 t4EQN -112 e283 e820 1. 1 ~ \I E A R S 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 w 11c WtAN R S T 0 DkV W SKE k P.441 -.LO * 13 1c .I57 e263 0214 aC87 -192 el73 -162 a415 SKEM 1.OtL 1. . T t ST DATA 723-X6-L234C - MIJI~THLV STiitLtMFLUW S I W l l L A T I D N U O V 197" - STCrlLARI: AtqALYS I S AN3 G E N E G A T ILIN I V F A IMMYH I A M k L Y X k C S hYitG PrYEIXG N P A S S IPCHd I P C H S t4STA NCOMB N T N D Y N C S T Y I G M R L NPROJ I Y R P J NTHPJ LVRPJ 19C4 In 1 5 10 5 1 -0 -0 -0 1 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 COMB 1 S T A 3 1 6.39 .395 1.316 S T D DEV . IMCRMT YEAAS 11: MEAM STD DtV SKiir W tzd INCRYT Pd YEARS t3 68 .041 -1e3fi8 be491 -e627 -10653 -1.1CB e597 e433 .177 -834 a395 e000 -. 26 . .I22 INCRHT .20 -15 .862 1.410 1.465 1.a1 .

in - % ti! 4 c) I u PAGE 2 EXRIBIT 4 . d 4 I I- Z a I a U U.

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* C C * 0 .ju s a m u m - 4 4 4 ~ 1 3 8 .O P . due4r>aa. 'p 4l.r e .e e l .. 4 - r 0 r_ 7 0 d X ~ o .+ I. e a o . 3 L t 3 LIL = o e + L . ~ > X c r P P I .+.

P 3 I- m.: O d .P 0 0 C 0 0 OM9rn.nN * W * & * 9 4 mmmm I) -J c.2 > .-.

1 i5 16 77 34 18 7 3 1 1 174 td 10 7 7 Y L ' 145 lbt 35 79 2C 19 5 2 1 0 473 OI I(:7 8 C 1 6 43 26 o5 2~ 11 4 1 1 6 185 10 7 9 1 2 -2 . 2P 25 51 24 1.SYhTHETIC FLOWS ST A LC 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 d 9 1-MO 6-U0 54-MO AV MO 107 9 2 145 IbC 35 115 3 -t 18 8 3 1 1 169 454 1254 21 110 64 d 33 28 27 106 122 159 197 146 27 12 197 7413 2767 46 111 207 4a 92 102 85 292 373 672 784 675 218 68 784 2937 11121 1as 996 280 59 27C 289 145 485 528 855 990 d24 246 M1 990 390a 15054 256 M I N I M U M VOLUYES STA 10 11 12 I 2 3 4 5 6 7 a 9 1-MO 6-HO 54-MO AV HO 107 C. 110 19 5 7 i3 829 STA YEAR 10 11 15 TOTAL 111 6 9 11 9 2680 111 7 Lr. 3 L 1 0 145 107 1C 1 2 2C b1 23 115 33 13 tl 3 1 0 280 STA YEAR l q 11 12 TOTAL cl 111: b 2 3 3 655 W 110 7 64 8 33 5 LO H 110 8 2 1.7 48 92 1 2134 111 8 9 11 25 1661 111 9 17 17 2: 1587 111 10 23 23 39 3274 MAXIMUM VOLUMES FOR P c R I U D 2 OF 5 YtARS Uf. GENERATED FLOdS F O R P E F : J D i STA Y ~ A R In 1: 12 1 2 3 4 5 b 7 a 9 TOTAL 8 1C7 6 C 1. 9 3 74 c3 110 9 4 5 5 4C 4 C. b P 15 16 51 20 11 3 1 1 G 0 8 1150 110 i 3 3 9 La 42 64 94 55 1i 6 4 2 33 2 2 16 111 9 1: 9 34 57 146 189 385 337 1C4 5C 26 9 163 8936 99 6 11 15 12 b3 100 261 275 492 395 '118 56 3G 11 223 12386 .

0 ..omm 0 Id* r > > u 4 mmw m tnom m . a000 Ndrn-4 d I .4 I r-.+mmo r-dP. .....- PAqE 7 EXHIBIT 4 ..

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6 .4 ~ mom d PAGE 9 .

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PAGE 18 EXHIBIT 4 .

.- V) w u3 a b 0d rld 04 4.4 Od d d 44 .-I .4 0 v i3 \> rn d .4 d d . .- *n VJ z a I- ul 0.

P E 4 1 0 b 1 JF 5 YEARS OF SYNTHETIC FLO#S ST A 19 11 12 1 Z 3 4 5 b 7 0 9 1-WO 6-MU 5 4 4 0 AVMO 111 56 30 60 127 84 302 453 837 1182 586 433 73 1182 3558 12738 21% MINIMUM VOLUMES ST A 19 a1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1-HO 6-YO 54-M0 AWHO 111 9 12 9 40 52 115 181 331 373 135 55 IC 9 131 LA751 B I" & . .31 3180 54 GENERATED FLdWS FOR P E R I Q D 1 PASS 2 STA YEAk 19 1L 12 1 2 3 4 5 b 7 8 9 TOTAL 1111 1 5o 28 33 1 ~ 3 62 188 275 5 38 565 43 5 43 3 37 2753 11 1 2 52 Z9 37 107 84 3G2 343 6 90 757 529 61 BC 3021 111 3 9 1L 9 40 52 262 453 037 A182 5 86 23 8 73 3753 111 4 5D 3 Ci 6C 1C4 70 115 181 331 3 73 135 55 2C 11524 Bal 5 34 23 2C 127 57 239 25'1 5 17 3 97 156 83 31 2OGl MAXIMUM VOLUHiiS FOP. W A X I A U M VCLUHES FBR P L k A G u f JF 5 Y E A R S O F SYNTHETIC FLUWS ST& 1C 11 12 a 2 3 4 5 b 7 d 9 a-MO 6-WG 54-HJ AV 10 7 2 L 93 in1 29 133 42 19 11 3 1 2 a33 352 131a 22 Ilr! 14 7 23 41 32 143 140 237 267 111 47 13 267 9.

4-4. QM* d m m 96 9 4 '0 In *a)C'bQ* m vmVII-9 m N nJmP(4'4 d .

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4 .4 4 -4 PAGE 16 EXHIBIT 4 . OCLn rye. 0 e . .4 aD Iuuwln O'lcaDd O * U ~ a m r n ~ 0 0 . 0 .

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PAGE 18 EXHIBIT 4 .

Y -1 & id I: I.z.d*Ln e e e e din c m w o rn&Q mmlnr- LnQ r-w-fa t'l .9 m-9nrm " (r.*<7 z>zc- -7 u 'A.- Ll! T" :< 2' r-L\ C 2 > C <: L. =zLic(P . c? Y TC < r "2 C1 k.. * 0 * r a w Z>3. c-: + C lz CO .i -.

. zouo r 5 N O s m c O N 9 9 W N N M M N C N 0. m o o m . B O D . 0 0 . . B d 0 0. QNO 0 l r Y ) d WrQLnnJ .*.e.0 GrQe m VIlnin* lno'inlc IcN.tS N d . --w e-a cr. L'G- 4 5 me. .a YIOL'I met- dMiYL0 . PAGE 28 EXHIBIT 4 .r@.)cnI p c r C C & Pl)rO(C 0 0 . . rccr: d Cc. .0 .-I 4 a0.

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r 4 0 Sir 4 . rCC mm c (PO (DIP v e . O PAGE 22 EXHIBIT 4 .

-.--' mdd*dd.=--ad-$ PAGE 23 EXBIBIT 4 .d*-+ rndM.*d. Betain Q. 4 brrrc.-I-.ca d P)lr d Q O O O O O Q O O O O 4 a ..-8(hP =we. + d d d d + d ~ s * . .-aMdd.r~rar*o. Z: LI ma. n BDPsN tB=m No' m rd a -?CmCbl= UtGM e CP.

S 7l 2MULAT I GlU .NOV S T A T 1 S T l C S FURNlSHtD IYRA INNTH I A N k L dXRC:. TcST DATA 3-Xt-L2340 '. ~ Y Y k G I ~ Y Y XIVPASS I Q C H Q IPCHS NSTA NCJMd NTNUM NCSTY I G M f i L NPROJ I Y R P J MTHPJ LYRPJ -0 10 -0 -0 i0 LO -C -0 -0 3 -0 -O -0 -0 -C -0 -G -0 GEYERATED F L O d S FOR P E 4 1 U O ? STA YEAR TOTAL 18 7 1 427 107 2 361 10 7 3 154 10 7 4 18 7 5 13 7 6 107 7 10 7 8 10 7 9 107 10 STA YEAR TOTAL 110 1 911 110 2 258 110 J 457 110 4 588 110 5 832 I1 (! 6 34 1 11C 7 594 110 8 498 110 9 232 +d 341 110 1G RP1 hP CI .lSI\ITHLY 5 T R E A Y F L O c l 1970 .

TOTAL 40 7C 1336 2148 2357 3684. z -P MAXIHUM VOLOYES FOR P c h I O D 1 D F ''1 Y E A R S OF SYNTHETLC F L O d S ST A 1P 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 107 8 3 237 157 44 111 3d 19 10 11C' 26 d 29 66 29 79 129 224 267 111 114 5C li4 id1 LC3 271 373 6 9 ~ 991 MIMIHUH VOLUHES STA 10 1L 12 107 3 1 2 110 2 3 4 11 1 9 13 15 . L514 2555 2178 111 9 1R 15 1240 9 ?3 1601 B l'.

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p o s i t i v e value c a l l s f o r analysis IENDF .Average monthly flow f o r a s t a t i o n AW(I 1 - Average logarithm of flow f o r minimum 3 consecutive months AW(I 1 - Average logarithm of flow f o r maximum 3 consecutive months B(L) - Beta c o e f f i c i e n t BETA(I.Month sequence number of last month of 3 wettest consecutive months INDC - Transfer i n d i c a t o r IP - Month number f o r preceding month IPASS - Sequence number of pass (subset of s t a t i o n s ) I PCHQ - Indicator.Alienation c o e f f i c i e n t f o r s t a t i o n 1 AC2 .istics IQ(I 1 .entarrag ALOG - Computer l i b r a r y function of n a t u r a l logm-ithm ANLCG - Number of logarithms ANYRS - Number of years of record AV(I.Alienation c o e f f i c i e n t f o r s t a t i o n 3 AD 3 . 723-X6-I2540 AC1 .End of f i l e indicator IGNRL - Indicator.K) - Average of t h e generated deviates AVGQ ( I 1 .plied before adding i n a combination DABS - Computer l i b r a r y function of absolute value of double precision number DQ(I.Fixed-point conversion of flow M u e s . + 2 c a l l s f o r computing generalized s t a t i s t i c s and + 1 o r t 2 c a l l s f o r using generalized s t a t i s t i c s f o r generating flows I ~ ( I ) .Plus sign i n d i c a t e s value smaller than upstream sum by tandem t e s t ADJl - Equal sign i n d i c a t e s value adjusted by tandem t e s t ALCFT(I.) - Beta c o e f f i c i e n t f o r generation equation BLANK - Blank space CROUT - Program subroutine t o solve s i m l t a n e o u s equations - CSTAC(K)[.Month sequence number of last morrth of 3 d r i e s t consecutive months I W H - Calendar month number f o r f i r s t month of water year IMX(I) .K) Coefficient by which flows a r e multi.Indicator. DEFINITIONS .K) - Mean logarithm AVG(I.K) -Alienationcoefficl.I.Alienation coefficient f o r station 2 AC3 . p o s i t i v e value c a l l s f o r punching st=i. p o s i t i v e value c a l l s f o r writing discharges on tap? IPCHS .Indicator i n column 1 of f i r s t card f o r each job IANAL - Indicator.K) - Increment of flow DTRMC - Determination ccxffic Lent E - Letter E i n d i c a t e s estimated value FAC - Temporary f a c t o r I - Index f o r calendar month IA .K.

Station number . Dimension l i m i t f o r t o t & number of s t a t i o n s KSTAC . .Temporary variable ITMP . S e r i a l number of month MA .Tape number f o r s t o r i n g s t a t i s t i c s .F i r s t year of d a t a IYRPJ . Temporary v a r i a t i o n of' L LQTAP . Index f o r r e l a t e d s t a t i o n LA .Temporary s t a t i o n number .Dimension l i m i t f o r number of consecutive months KPASS .Number of c m e n . Tempx-ary v a r i a t i o n of K or combination sequence KYR .Statlon number of upstream tandem s t a t i o n .Station number of dependent s t a t t o n f o r consistences t e s t ITEMP . - (aK) Index number of s t a t i o n i n a combination rnAP .Temporasy variable ITBRS .Station nuinber i n a combination . Sequence number of month sf projected flow .Station nuniber of downstream tandem s t a t i o n .Matrix column number JTP . Temporary v a r i a t i o n of L LYRPJ .Dimension l i m i t f o r number of passes Xs'rA .Sequence number of proJection year JT~(L .T a p number f o r s t o r i n g flows IilCO%J .Transfer indicator IX .Temporary variable ITP . M t r f x raw number LTRa .Matrix column number JK .Positive value c a l l s f o r varying flow increment (DQ)t o make skew zero.Index f o r year JA .Temporary variable ITWP .Temporary v a r i a t i o n of I IKX . positive value c a l l s f o r flow r e c o n s t i t u t i o n . .on sequence number f o r a l l p s s e s .Indicator. Matrix row number LTP .Sequence number of upstream s t a t i o n f o r tandem t e s t .Temporary v a r i a t i o n of J K .Index f o r s t a t i o n m .Station number of i n d e ~ e n d e n ts t a t i o n f o r consistences t e s t ISI"P(Lj .t yeap IYRA .Statl. Dimension l i m i t f o r t o t a l number of s t a t i o n s I a .IQTAY . Number of records up t o present position on t a p ISTAT LTMF(L) . Letter A LX .Temporary w i a t ion of J J m MP . Dimension l i m i t f o r number of consecutive years L.Argument f o r random number function IYR . ISKZ .Yew of start of flow pro j e c t i ~ n J . Mmber of records up t o present position on t a p IQTAP LSI'AT . Last year of each projection M .

L) .Number of years of generated flows i n each period f o r which maximum and minimum flows are desired NYRG . and min.Number of months following dry season and preceding wet season NMXMN .Number of tandem t e s t s WAR . number of passes i n job NPROJ .Number of independent variables in regression study NJ .Number of s t a t i o n s i n a p a r t i c u l a s pass NSrX .Number of consistency t e s t s NINDP . Calendar month number MPASS .S e r i a l number of period of flows NC .K.Transfer indicator NCCMB .L) --Correlation c o e f f i c i e n t Average c o r r e l a t i o n coefficient f o r 1 2 calenzar months .Number of s t a t i o n s i n a cm-bination NSTAT .Number of values and cross products used t o compute c o r r e l a t i o n coefficients NCB .NSTA + 1 N D A C (IM) .Temporary counter f o r number of p s s e s MTHFJ .Number of s t a t i o n s i n current pass t h a t occurred i n preceding pas ses NSrXX .Number of combinations of s t a t i o n s max.L) -Correlation c o e f f i c i e n t i n a given matrix RA(I.Counter f o r number of flows NQTAP .Number of logarithms used t o compte frequency s t a t i s t i c s NMNMX .Counter t o prevent continuous looping NCA .Number of projections of f'uture flows from present conditions NQ .L) RAV (K.Monthly flow ~ () 1 -Monthly flow WN(I. q u a n t i t i e s a r e t o be computed NCSI'Y .Number of s t a t i o n s i n analysis IsTAA .NSTA + RSTA NSTNP(I ) .Number of s t a t i o n s upstream from a s t g t i o n f o r tandem t e s t NTNDM .Total number of years of generated flows NYRS .K) -Identification symbol Q ~ A (PI .Calendar month of start of each projection MXRCS .NSTX + 1 N ~ ( K .Number of months following wet season and preceding dry season NPASS .MO(I) .Number of upstream s t a t i o n s i n tandem t e s t NSTA .Temporary storage of QFREV R (K.Total.K) .K) .Number of years i n computation sequence NLOG(I.K) -Minimum flow QPREV(I -Flow f o r previous month &R(M.Number of y e a s of recorded flows Q(M.Counter t o prevent continuous looping NCAB(I.Total number of records saved on tape IQTAP N~MX(L) .Total number of variable i n regression study NYMXG .Number of years i n each pericd f o r which maximum and minimum recorded and reconstituted flows are desired N .Total number of records saved on tape ISTAT NSTAX .K.

Standard devaition of logariths for calendar month sDAV(K) .K.Value of independent variable in regression equation ~ ) X I N (I .M~~ or minimum rlow for mouth or duration SW(I. K .Sum ~f squares of first variable S&B(I.Temporary variable Trn .Sum of second variable T .Sum of first variable SUMB(I.able TMPA .Correlation coefficient being tested R2 .Average correlation coefficient of matrix ~ ( I .L) .Correlation coefficient being tested R3 .nd second variables .Large positive constant TEM? . L ) .L) .Minimum consistent correlation coefficient RNGEN ( IXX ) .Program random number function R1 .Tempormy variable TMP .K) .RMAX .K.K.K) .Temporary varl.K) .Temporary variable TP .L) .Temporary variable TMPP .Skew coefficient of logarithms for calendar month SMQ( J.K.K> .L) .Ternlaormy variable ~(1) .Maximum consistent correlation coefficient RMIN .Iteration vzlue for flow increment XPAB(I.Sum sf cross products of' first a.Average standard deviation for 12 consecutive months SDV(I.Standard devi~tionof the generated deviates -(I.Sum of squares of sec~ndvariable SUM .Correlation coefficient being tested ~J)(I.

C 7 2 3 - ~ 6 - L 2 3 4 6 MPN?WLV *T4tApf2~?,, ~ I ~ ~ ; L & s I pU ~ ~ c t OF ~ F r U S E :970
Ch
C
* * t * * *
LIRPAEY Ft!YCflchs A L Q ~ , D k 4 3
PPDGPAM SUE@CJLlTl!l€ C R t ~ 7 ~ R h ~ f r ; S E E CnnnEN7S 1 3 R N G E N --
, * * h s a * * * * * * i O d 2

C I N D E X E S ISCALENDAR Y O b t Y J I J Y E A P #o3TA L B W E C A T E D STA H ~ s u c c E S S I ~ E
1003
H O k T B 1008
c 1005
DIPFNSIflN 1006
.orlo),wtioIl1), IOO~OOQ
.ALCFt(l2,16) I A y t l 2 1 1 O ) l P ~ G ( l z , 1 0 ) I ~ ~ ~ ~ ( ~ o ) g, ~a ' vd ~~ x ~( ~ ~O l~ O 8 ~
~ ~ E T ~ ( ~ ~ I ~ ~ I ~ F ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ I I I ~ N ~ ~ O ) ~
* I ~ T A ~ ~ ~ ~ , . J T ~ ~ P ( ~ ) , Lt T h CHh P
R (~II ~I #! l) ~#tP~ O
~ ) [* I ~ )
. N ~ O s ( 1 2 ~ 1 ~ 1 1 0 C 1 2 0 1, ~6 1
~0( 1~i ] )t c r ( ~ h ( l ~ Io ) ~ ~ ~ ~ v ~ 1 0 1 1 ~ ~ ~ 1 2 ~ l
, ~ ~ ~ ~ P ~ ~ O O ) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ O I ~ ~ ~ I ~ A V ( ~ O ~ ~ ~ ) , S O
pSKEu(12,lO) r S ~ 0 ( 3 O l l O I I d C A ( 1 2 , 1 m ) , s Q P ( ~ ~ I I ~ ~~ s~uoMIA ( ~ ~ I I O P Z ~ S ,
p ~ l l ~ ~ ( 1 2 ~ 1 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ( ! O ) ~ ~ 1 ~ C ~ ~ 1 2 ) I ~ P ~ 3 f 1 2 ~ ~ ~ e 2 0 ) ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ( ~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ J T ~ ~ ( ~ ~ ~ C ~ I ~ . $ T ~ ( ~ ~ ) ~
. ~ ~ T Y ~ ~ ~ ) I K $ T A C ( ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ) I F ~ S ~ Y ~ ~ O ) I ~ ~ ~ T S C ( Z ~ ~ ) ~ ~ ~ T
~ N S ~ V ( ~ O D S ] , M C ~ P R ( ~ ] , M T ~ C ~ J ~ iO,ab,S]
~ ) ~ I $ T ~ ~ ~ ) ~
COUPLF P R E C l 3 I f l N R t Y 1016
CnHHOh D T Q ~ C l ~ I N D P 1 0 lo;?
D A T A LTPAIlHA/,flLBN#/1H /,E/~W~/,ADJ/~H+/,AOJ~P~Y~~ I018
10 F O R M A T ( ~ H ~ ) 1019
20 FORYAT [ 1 ~ ~ 1 5 1 1 9 I b ) 1020006
3C F O R M ~ T I ~ X1*7 1918) 1021
~ ~ R M A T ( ! X ~ A ~ , ~ A ~ ~ ! O A ~ ) 1022 .
50 F D R ~ A T ( ~ X , X ~ , I U I ~ ~ F ~ ~ O I 1025
60 F O P H A T ( ~ Y I F ~ , @ , ~ V ~ ~ ~ ) 1024
7C F O R M ~(Ti X I 1 3 r I a I li?F5,3) 1025
R G FORHAT ( 1 x 1 l 7 r 12Fb.3) 1026
q0 FORMAT ( 1 X I 17r12Fb.11 1021
lac F ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ( t ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ l b ~ i 2 1 8 ~ I 1 0 ) l028
116 F ~ R P A TfAl,A31944r lOAO) 1029
1 2 0 F n r ~ a~ ~~ x , ~ Y , ~ F ~ . ~ , T I ~ I ia300oo
13C FORMAT (/23Y GENERALIZED S T A T Z S ? I C Z / / 1 3 H 3 7 1 81% 4 A V ) 11131
l d c FOAYAT(/38H STA I V P X AVHh SD&V H A X H U H % N ~ U ) 1032
19TA7=8 1034
10TAP=9 1035
KPA95SS
K92AP=lOd 10x7
KS?A=iO 1038
#YR:l03 !039
KY:KYRt12+1 1040
h'STilZ3 1002
c W A S T E C A R D S UNTIL AP A IN c n ~ u r kt r P I H ~ PTITLE CARD 1043
C d 6 CARD A 66 1004
1 5 0 2 E A @ ( 5 1! t o ) I A ~ ( s ~ Q ( 11
H ~, M ~ I , ~ O ) 1045
I F (TA.RE.LTRb) G O TO 150 tO4b
WRITE (6110) 1649
REA~(S,~O)(~~YQ(M~K),P=~,~O)~K=~!P~) 1050
RITE f b , 4 0 ) ( ( s u Q ( ~ , K )1tis!e2@) 1 ~ a i 1 3 ) 10 5 1
C a* CaRD B CARD C *a 1052000
~ ~ A ~ ( ~ , ~ ~ ) ~ V ~ A I I ~ Y ~ t~O S 3 ~ ~ d h A
l,NCflMR,NTbIoMIYCSTYI 16hliL , h P R n J I I Y G P J , p T b P J t L Y R P J 1055
C TERvIhATE W I T H 9 P L A N # CA408, A N A CiYL 1 CS FIR37 1056
PYHP~IANAL+YYRG '1057
IF(JTH~.GT.OIGG 76 180 1059
STOP 1059
I h S !4QITE ( 6 1 1 7 n ) h Y k Z r P 3 T A t h C R ~ 8
; P~ A S 1060
I f 0 FRRHAT (/19H D I H E 4 5 1 O h EXCEEDED ~ S ~ I Q ~ ~ * ~ S F X ~ ~ ~ X V Q ~ ~ S COO
1061 ? A ~ I ~ ~ ~ X ~
l f H N C P ~ R , I S I ~ X ~ 5 H ~ P 4 ~ s ~ I ' S ~ 1063000
Gfl T O 150 1063
1 f l C HRITE(Sr19O) 1064
19C F 0 a u b ~ ( / ~ O 1 v~ ~~4 IpthTc IAuAL * t X P C S ~ v R G~ Y M x GNPASS I P G ~ QI P c H ~1055
1 ~ 3 7 1N C O ~ ~ NO T W ~ J Y N c S T ~ ScNDL F J P ~ C J I Y q P J H T b P J LYRPJ 1 1066
#RITE (blzO) 1 ~ i f l * l T~M l ~ 4A ~ ~
A L , ~ Y Q c P , ~ Y ~ G ~ P v I~ ~ ~ s 1
. I ~ ; ~ ~ ~l o~ bI?
l N ~ T A I ~ ~ O r B I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I h ~ 3 106% T Y , 1 ~ ~ ~
IF( L V R P J - ~ Y R A ~ G E . K Y W ) G O 7 0 160 !Oh9
CQ ,, *
SET G C N S T A M T S r e r a* e * *
fi * d 1070* * * * * *
fXXtO 1071
YSTIA=NSTA+I 1072
NSTAX=NSYA+NSTA 1073
~n99999qq9, 1074
X Y R I ~ I YRL-1 1075

a* CARD E a r 1141

src ! ~ s ~ f E 1 5 ~ 3 l( oC l~ T A C ( K , L , ~ P P,LZ!,
~~] rip)
JIG F f l Q P A T ( 7 r L ~ ~ I ~ * A T I P I ~ 1X u, ~ n . 3 )
Ti'c t F ( f J 9 N D " . L E . Q I G O T O 350
fl7kFIi [ ~ P ~ S S ] : I I T Y ~ M
30 330 L U = l r N T N D H

3bC ~(CIK)=-I. 1159
30 3 7 0 I = l , l 2 1160
pJLCG(I,K)=O 1161
D d ( f IWISG. 1162
3MfNIXI#)=T 1163
g l C~ ~ K T I U L I E 1164 .
JP6 CnhTIYUE f 165
~ F ( N C S T V . L E . O ) 60 T O ~ E O 116b
J R I T E ( ~ I 390: 1167
J Q C F ~ ~ M A ~ ( / ~ D Y ~ B H S T A T I O Y :C: R
/N I S T E N C Y T E s T , ~ X ~ ~ ~ W / N D E P E N O € DE
I ~S W N~ I168
1 Pf:'k1DENT) 1169
D O 003 L z I I N C S T Y 1170
C r* C b R D G t* 1171
$EAR C5r30) I S r X C L ? , TSTY [L) 1172
#in0 4 ? T T E ( b r 9 1 0 ) L r :STXII.)IISTY~L] 1173
l i t C F ~ ~ R ~ A T C ~ ~ YI ~, I ~ C J~ Y~I X~~ !) X I 1174
n2c IF~IANAL.LE.Q)GQ T C if7o 1175
cc z * * a *
R E A D AN9 PROCES; 1 S T A 7 i O b r Y E A P OF i ) A T A a * l * * * * 1176
c r* CARD n *t 1177
;d?c l ? € ~ n [ 5 , 9 0 )T S T A M , I Y ~ , f ~ w ( ~ ) ~ r = i , 1 2 ) 1178
C ** CAKD I ** 1175
C S L A M C A R D I h O I C 4 f E S END CF FLSh D A T A 118C
IF(?STAN.L?.IISO TO S ~ Q t i ei
X G [ N ~ T A . L ~ . ~ I G TP U 45C 1182
C A?,Rf4N SUUSCGIPT 10 S T A T I O Y f 183
on a 4 0 K = H S T Y I , ~ I S T A 1184
X F ( X ~ Y A N . E ~ . I S T A ( K ) ) G O TO 460 1185
U q C CnNTINOE 1186
030 biS7A=NSTA+l 1187
IF(NSTA.6T.XSTAl G D TO 1 6 8 1 !a?-2*
K=NSTL 1188
I9TA!Kl=?3TAbJ ti39
C A S 9 l C N SURSC;qIPT TU Y E A R 1190
& h C J:IYA-IYfi4 V191
I~(NyQ3.~?,J.AhD,IP35~O~r;,l)~YR~aJ 1192
I F [ J . G T . o , ~ v D . J . L E . ~ J Y ~ S )G O T O 080 1193
RITE ( 6 , ~ 7 0 1 I Y R 1194
470 F'nkFc4T ( / l h H UI.i4CtkPTBF,LE Y E b R o I S ) 11~5000
GO TO 150
C S T O P E f t O N S 1,V S T C t l D & AND M!?;+TH A R R A Y

K ) a * T 1254 .LE. 125 1 Ld~to 1262 ~n 6 6 0 ! = l .36 NSU~/K~IPA$S]=NSHX(LX) I T Y P s N S H X (LX) 1238 O R 5 8 0 LolrTTMP 1239 on 470 K X = I .E~. l ~ 1263 66C S t l Q C I .Q)GD 7 0 540 C I O E M T i F Y 3 T A 3 U H S C R X P T S FUR 9 1 4 3 IN CQHBIVATIBNS 4n 530 K x = ~ D H C G H B ~TP:NSTAC ( K X a I P A 3 3 ) Lx=n Dq 520 L = l D I T P ITEMF~~STAC ( K X D L ] D O 5 1 0 K=!DNsTA IF(ISTA(K).9TAC ( K Y a I P ~ ~ S ) = L X S3C COYTINYE 1229 C I D E N T I F Y S T A T I C h 3 I N TANDEM 1230 5aC X F ( N T ~ O f f .I ? A S s ) O~P.LE. 1 3 T f (LXobl 1 GO TQ 5 8 0 12a1 57e CONTINUE^ 1242 5nC IS? CKDLI I P A S 3 I = X X f9C CRhTINUE 1244 C IBEMPIFYP A I R 3 C F S T A T I O N 3 FOR ~ ~ N S I ~ T E NYE9TS C Y 1245 bbC IF(NC3TY.K)=O. . O l GO TO 600 1231 F n 990 L r = l . l ~ X 1254 630 C ~ N T I N U E I255 6aC COSTINUE 1256 b5C S T M P 3 N S T l + k C O ~ B 1257 CD a * * * * r M A X AND F I N RECORDED VOLUMES a * * * * * * s a * * * a * 1258 c IVITTATE suns 1259 5 0 790 K=YSTXXaXTMP 126Q ~V60CK1~0.NSTAl G G TO 700 1275 C COMPIJTE COM~I%ED FLOWS 1276 KXSK-NQTA 1277 ~ ? P s N S T ~ C ( K Y .Eo. XFCNCOH~. 1267 TSPAaO. 1279 b n h99 L ~ I D I T P 1260 Z T E Y P ~ K S T A C ( K X ~ ! .]=X 1252 G o TO 630 1253 b2C I ~ Y ~ ( l . N S P A 1240 I F ( J S T S ~ K X )a ~ 9 .EOa*la] i2e3 C(M~K)=~(%~K)+G(!~~ITEPP)*C~YACCUX~L. k o m .ITEMP)CO TO 510 L Y =L x + 1 KJTAC~KX~LXIIPASS)~K G O TO 520 510 CnNTINUE 52C CnhTINuE c REDUCE STATIONS t n THOSE IDENTIF~ARLE 8. fPASS) c C U H n X h E U F L 5 k PI3SfN6 1262 IF(n(N.NE. 1266 *a1 1269 t ~ t o 1270 ~o t e a J = ~ .LE.0 f H * i o.ISTNCLX)) G O TO 960 1234 55C CrlNTINIJE 1233 56C I S T NtLx1tK 12.IPA~~) .i ma5Fi. L E .IIEMP) G O Y o 680 .ISTXILI 3 G C TO 6 1 0 1249 I F ( X 3 T A C K I a E ! 3 a I S T Y f L l l 8 0 T O 620 1250 ria TO 630 1251 6 1 0 T9TX(I. H V Q S 1271 nn 770 I = ~ D ~ Z 1272 n=r+l 1273 hl=u+l 1270 I F CK. N T N O n 1232 D n 550 KII~NQTA 1233 I F ( I S T A C K ) .OI GO t O 6 % 1246 Gn 640 L l l r N C S f Y 1247 630 K = l YsTA 1256 I F ( Z S T A C K I . 0 0 670 r r l b a 3 0 1265 67C § v o C I I K l o T 1266 TMPZO.

en ro hso
bfiC n t H , K ) ¶ - l .
h9C C t l h ' T T k U E
70'2 X F ( n ( N * K ) . k E . - l r ) G o 10 710
c s ~ i a TNEN ACCUPULATIONS U H E ~F ~L O W n 1 3 3 1 ~ e
N=o
TPIPZO,
IUPhaO.
Gfl TO 770
7 1 0 TEwps(J I F ~ I K )
C loHnNTH FLflW8
:F(SNO(I~K~~LT.TE"P)S~~(IIK~~YEFIP
I F ( S M R ( I + l f IKI rGT.TE~?~]3FS(I+1SlK)=7E~P
I F ( q M Q (13.K) . L T . T E t ~ P ] , 9 W G [ i 3 p K ) % l E t J P
X F C S M Q ( ~ ~ ~. GKT)r T E H P ) S Y t ( ~ R I K ~ I T E H P
c 6-MONTH F L 0 N S
THP:fHP+fE!4P
TrPLnTnPA+TEh!P
1~(~-6)7hn,730,720
72C TuP=TVP-Q ( r - b r K l
7 3 C I F [TMP,LT.S"f? l 2 9 , K ) 18Cfl I 2 9 # K ] a T M P
Ii~ruP.Gt.s~i~(l~,Kll5~~1~14,K)~~UP
c S U - ~ ~ R TF HL O N S
1~(~-3'J)7601750r740
7PC T ~ ! F A ~ T Y P A - Q [ M - ~ O , K )
7SO 3: (TMP&.LT,9HQ ( 3 C r K ) ]9!;b [~CIK):THPA
~F(TMPAsGT.8~O(1flK))§).!R[15~K)tiMPA
C ~ ~ I E P A G EFLOW
760 ~ v G ~ ~ C K ] ~ A V G B ( K ) + T E H P
Nn=wa+l
7 7 0 CONTINUE
7RC C n t i ? l N U E
TF.UQ=NQ
A v G [~K ] 1 b V G O ( K ) I T E H P
790 C Q h T I U l J E

9hC I ~ ( I ) = S ~ G ( I + I S ~ K ) + . ~
67C ~ * ~ I T E ( b r 0 ~ 0 1 1 S f A ( K ~ l1 r Q I I l p X = ~ , 1 ~ ~
CE
7 - * * * * * C3wPUTE F R E O U E ~ C YS T A T I S T I C S * * * * * *
r a I T E (6,R90)
R P O F n E M A ? ( / 2 l H FREQUENCY S T A T X S T I C S )
i < P I T E [ 6 , 8 S O ) ( h f O C l ) II=! r I 2 ;
890 F U K r A T (/14R STA ITEM,L~I 1118)
C H I S S I h C FLOW P F E t F B L N G FIRST H E C O R D MONTH
on ~ O OK S ~ I S T Y YI N S T I
90C O l l p K ) = T
I P C n N=O
XTFf4P n N 3 T A
D n 1180 K = ~ ~ I T E * P
I F IJTEnP,GT,NSTA) G O TC l i e 0
IF(K,CE.N3Tx] GO TO 9 5 2
9 i c nn 920 1=1,1a
TEMP=KLOG!I~X~
Dn(f , K ) = D ~ C I , ~ ) * . O I / ~ E H P
IF(nQ(ir<l.LT*.l) DO(11K)nrl
ZF~~~IN(IIK).LT.O.) DQ(I~KI=DQ~~,K)-BMIH~~,K)

Nod
930 nn Q U O YR!, i2
AV(I,K)3fla
:n(I,K)=?1.
S!tE!4(IlK)=0.
TH9lN
X ~ ~ C Q ~ ~ ) ~ ( O ~ ( ~ ~ X ) + O ~ ~ X % ~ I ~ K I : / ( ~ ~ ~ ~ T ~ ~ P )
sao C ~ K P ~ N U E
9
&
'
3 z=1
On 9 7 0 Jnt , N y R 3
O i l 9 6 0 Isl,12
:r=rr+1
IF(fl(M,K) . E 9 a = I a l 6 0 TO 935
C 2Ef'LACE F L 0 4 A R R A Y WITH L O G A H R A Y
T E W P = ~ L ~ C ( ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ K ~ * ~ ~ C I ~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' J O ~ S ~ ~ ~
RIMIKIZTEHP
IF(K.LE.NSTX) G O 70 9 6 0
C 5 U H , SnUARE3, AhO C U B E 3
4V(7,K)ZAV(10K)+TEflP
SD(I,K)=F~CT,XI+TE~~P*TEI*P
SKE~~I~~I=~KE~(I,X)~TEYP*~E'~P*~E~P
G O 4 0 900
C *iX33IhG FLOW3 EGUIPEO TO T
9fC 2 t N . K l a T
I?COY=l
9bC C ~ ~ ~ T I Y U E
970 C Q h T I f f U E
Ie(K,LE.h3T:O C q 1 0 1180
I NDCZO
Oil lono ?=l,li?
YEu~=~LO~(I,K)
fF(PEYP.iT.3.1GO 1 0 1120
T1'P+AV tTaK1

I F C $ D ( X , ! < ) ,LE.O.I GO TD 4 P Q
SDITIK)=SllCIs~)**.S
I F [ s ~ ( I , K ; . ~ ~ . , 0 3 f l S ) G U T C 990
s u ~ r ( ~ , x ) = ( T i ; ~ ? * ~ E ~ t P ~ S ~ E ~ ( x , % l ~ . 3 . ~ ? ]
l / I T E N P , ( T E ? f J ~ 1. ) w ( T € . L t F * 2 . ) 2 9 o ( I , i 0 * * 3 1
I F ( s K E M ( ~ .Li,[:,l)aOQ.S~EU(I,K)aG3.aL
~~~J INOC=I
I F t . ? x E , 4 ( 1 1 K ) .GT.3.] SKE&(I,K)=3a
I F ( ~ ~ x E I J I I.l.T.-'3*]
~xI 9Xf-b ( I , ! o = m 3 .
G O ?rl 1500
9a0 40CT,K)=Oe
9 4 C SrEw(r,Kl=O.
1 O n G CnKTINUE
N=h+i
I F ( ~ . G T . 1 1 G o T Q 1060
d ~ ~ ~ ~ ( b! s e? ~l ( K~ ) l(, A ~~ (] l a ! O ~ ~ = l , i z ]
i o i c F ~ R M A T( / l ~ , ~ ~ , a t r V E S ~l ,% ~ 6 , 3 1
d ~ l y E [ b el b a O ] ( $ f l ( I , K ) r I = 1 # 1 2 )
1 0 2 C FnriqAT (79,7;1,9Tl! DEv, 1 2 F P s 3 !
: ~ a l r ~ r ~ , t e 3t s0x1~ c ( ? , ~ ) , 1 = 1 , i 2 1
1030 F7RHiT ( l b ~ r J ~ S ~ E % ~ l 2 P A . 3 1
raITE(6, IOCO) (DP(I,W),I=l112)
lnOc F w M 4 T ( b ~ , h ~ X k C ~ ~ ? , F 7 . 2 , 1 1 F B . t )
+ a r : ~ r s , l a s n l ;hLcc(I,x) , 1 = 1 , 1 2 1
1 O S C FnHP!dT (7Y,5HYEAR9,1218)
lob&' IF(N.GE.Ia) Gfl 70 1 1 8 0
rrtI!mc.L,~.oj G O 72 1 1 8 ~
C THE F C L L f l i q I N G R C c T I k E H I L L A D J c S T T H E ~ S C U E ~ ~TC
E ~ T
c ' 7 9 ~TO O d T l f N Z E S O KEN
C C H A N G E W E P C L L W I N G 3 1 A T TO ISJ(Z=l T O ACTIVATE
TSK720
IF(TSKZ.LZ.0) G O TO 1180
I T P ~ - 1t
bn 1110 I a l t l i ?
i4ZTTP+X
DP l o e a j = l t ? ~ Y ! ? 3

'lsH+\? iuzi
Z F ( ~ ~ ( N , K ) . E O . T )60 TO 1078 3 422
ft4:xn(bl,l0 1423
11 ( H #K)xIO.**TMP rnfJQ(11K) 1424
~n ~n 1 0 8 0 1425
107C G l V , K ) n - 1 . 1426
!OAO C ~ ~ T I K L J E 1427
TFWPSSKE ( 1~ , ~ ) 1428
iF(TEMP.CT. ( - 9 1 ) a A ~ f l . T E M P ~ L T . ~ Gl lO TO 1429
IF(TFMP) 1090~1110~1100 1430
lOqC ~ ~ o [ ~ , x ) a f ~ O ( I , K ) * 2 , 103 1
cn T O i i r o 1432
llOC b ? ( I l ~ ) = u O ( t l K ) ~ ~ I f ~ ~ C H ( X ) 1433
1110 C n h r ~ ~ u E 1434
GP To 930 1 U35
C * * * * * DELETE STATICY3 WITH LESS T H A h 3 Y E A R S OF D A T A * * * * * * 1436
1 1 2 0 *dulTE(bt 1 1 3 0 ) TSTA(K1 !4 3 7
113C FPRWAT (/UY 3 T A , I B , 2 8 R DELETED, I N S U F ~ X C S E N T O A T & ) 1438000
hlqTArRgT4=! 1439
NSTAASV~TA+I i 460
NST&X=;J$TA+NSTA 1441
IF(K.Gt.YSTAlGG T 0 1180 1442
C PEDIJCE SUHSCRIPTS OF S U B S E Q U E N T TATI IONS 1443 '
o n 1170 KX=K,NSTA 1444
I d T n ( K X ) = X S T A( K X + ~ I 144s
ti= J iaa6
Dn 1150 J ' l r f J Y R 9 1447
n n 1140 131,ia 1448
'1=Fc+i 1 s4q
iific nrn,~x)=gc~,u%+l) 1450
ilSc CPbYLCUE 1451
Q O 1160 3=lr11? 1452
JvfN:TIKx)=fl*4Ih(J,Kx+1) 1453
?:I O G ( T , K : O = ~ ~ L O G ( I I K W ~ ) 1450
116C O0(TrK~)=Di3lIrKX+i) 1455
117C Cnh.TtNUE 1456
cfl r n 9 1 0 1457
1 l P C C!IE'TINIIC 1458
ITQbJSt0 1a 5 9
IF(TPCD~.LE.O) G D 10 1 3 7 0 1460
CF* a n * n n AUJUSTfAENT OF FREGUENCY 3 T A T I 3 T J C S 70 L O N G TERM * * * * 1461
on i lso 1 = 1 , 1 2 1u52
nn I S J ~K = ~ , N S T A 1463
Dn 1190 L=lcNSTAX 1464
xcn~(:,~,i.)=n lais
$itrid (I,K,L]'O. 14bb
SI;f'411,K1Ll~Oe 1467
§on ( I , K ~ L I = O . 1 UCB
sot3~ ~ , K I L I ~ O . 1469
XPAn(TIK,L)=O. 1470
R4(lIK,L)=-4, lG71
1190 C P h T l N t J E 1472
D O 1220 N=~,NSTA 1473
XY=L+~ 1474
=!I t 1475
DP 1 2 ? 0 J = l , N Y h 3 1496
D O 12!0 I = i r 1 2 I477
1.1 = r + 1 1478
TFMOzQ ( U r K) 1479
IF(TSr~P.EQ.Tl GO TO I210 1580
~ f 1
l 200 L = K X , ~ S T A Z iuai
~w:~-ksTs 1 4 82
IF ( L x , L T . I ) T~~=IJ(:~,L) 1483
IF(LY.GT.O) THP=OO~=~,LXI i ~ e u
~ F ( T M P , E ~ ~ . Y5
) 0 Y @ 12CO 1485
scrn(I,KIL)=NChH(1,K,I.)+~ 1988
SI~*A(IIKILI=~~J~A(I,K~I.)+~EMP 14e?
S~~~R(X,K:L)=OU~~~(I,K~I)+TPP 1486
~~&~~~K~L)=SO~(IIK,L)*~EKP*TEMP 1489
S ~ E ~ I ~ K , L ) ~ S ~ ~ ~ ( I , K , L ) + T ~ P * T M P 1490
X P A H ~ I , ~ , L I = X P ~ Q ( ~ , ~ , L ~ + T E I ~ ~ ~ ~ 1891
IF[L.GT.NBTA) G O TO 1200 1092

.

CY. TEbP IF(so(x.GY.GE. d Y R S nn 1400 r=i.Lx)/THPO A~(?.1=1. L E .K.I~)) I s T P [ K ) hQ!TEr5.O) G @ TO a 8 2 0 (30C I F ( T h O C . t d S T A Y I1 On 1 4 1 0 J = l r .TECPI GG 70 1320 131C s~(~. K ) ) / S D ~ I .K).K. Y~Ps=$uHR~I. K I .L). O .LXI.12) k R I T E [ b .THF YC(~.Kl*2. !F[Av(I.NCSTY K=!STX ( L Y ) L=I$TY [LX) UO 1 3 2 0 131112 TFPP=[AVCI.ln2n) ($o(Iei(] e101.K)~S~A(~IKILX)+~~O(IILX)~S~~~(~~K~LX~)*~A(I~K~LX]**~*~M~ 12f'C CflkTINUE C ADJUST STANDARD O E V T A T I O K S F n R COYSISTENCY I F ( ~ C S T Y .TfGO TD 14CO I F ~ ! ~ D ( I .L)~GE. K ) . TPC'Sl. 1)310 - t360 TErP=TFFP+SO(I. E O ~ O ~ I G OTO l a 0 4 T?PPZm5*3KEU(S.L) .KJ=T~PA+CAV(I. O ) G O 10 1370 4QtTE(br 1350) (350 F ? ~ 4 5 ~ ( / 3 9 + F4 R E R L ~ E N C YS T d T I 3 I I C S AFTER A D J u ~ T H E N T S) !!?1tE(brB90) ( r U ( I ) r I = 1 1 1 2 ) DD 1 3 6 0 K = l r h S T 4 H Q ~ T E ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~e (AV(IIK).12) 1360 COhTXNUE CG * * *a * * TRANSFORM TO S T P b D A G D I Z E D ' J A R f A T E S * * * * * * * * * * 1370 93 1 4 2 0 K = i .K)*O(t4vK)+l.L)=TEHP i32C Cj74TIHUE 133C CflLTINUE ~F[ITSNS.I=I.K)-A~[~.L~~/~. K ) C P E A R S C N T Y P E I11 TRANSFORM I F ( R ~ E w C X . J S F E ~FRfM 101 f j290 0 n 1 3 3 0 L X = ! . l O U n ) (CD(11K].I=i. L T * T E V P ) GO T o 1310 TF~'P=sD(IIK)*~?~-TEMP IF~~ ' TO EMP) ~ 1 3 tI 0 ~I 1 3L 2 0 . ~ K D .A V ~ S . K ) ~ E o ~ O ~ I YGO I J1 3 9 0 ~ C ~ ~ ~ K ) = ( F ( ? ~ ~ K ) .Y) IF[5n(I.L~~*TPF~~)*H~(J.121 ~~7TE(br1030)tSKE~(IcX). K ) s B L A N K I ? ( Q [ V .0TmTEfiP) GC T O 1 3 1 6 TFFn=SD(I.AV(I~L)~ GC TO 1300 TEt'F=TEUP+SD(ItK) IF(SO(I. O I G O TO 1 3 1 0 C T R I I . !F(TEVP.O.ra ?ltb+l DP ( H .)tU T O 1360 TFVPz-TEMP .ED. L E . ~ C S T Y e L E .

~~ ~t L il ~) O os ~ 7 ~ 9 10 6 803 i G'1 T O 1510 iOA4 156C Q A ( T I K . ~ ~ ) + ~ 1644 S~~~A(I.X.~O(T.KIJSU. ~ ) G O T d 1510 T 665 TF#P=NCAHfI.TIGG TO 1470 1536 3 0 1 4 6 0 L=KX#NSTAX 1637 C sLJ0SCUXPT3 E X C E E O I ~ J G h 3 T 6 RELATE 1 0 PRECEOING V i l h l H 163% LXzL-NsTA 1639 IF ( L Y . 1685 1 5 1 6 ~ F ( L .x. G T .TIUlJE IbAS 1560 CnbTXNLJE 1690 60 T n 2170 !fig1 155C ' \ a l T E ( 6 .LT.GT.K. ~ l ~ ) t b ~ ~ ~ ( r .NSTAX 16ht LY=L-NSTA 1663 I: E L I H I h A T E PAX23 R I I P LESS T h A S 3 YWS UATA i6bY ~ F C ~ C J B ( I I K . L ) ~ ~ l J ~ ~ ~ ~ I I X l L ) ~ 3 U ~ A ( X ~ ~ p b ~ ~ ~ E H 1667 ~ l * ( ~ Q ~ ~ I l ~ p L J ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ 1~ ~ . 'In 1540 Kztr~ST4 t 629 KY=X*l 1630 ~ 3 1 1631 no J=! # V 7 K 9 1632 D O la70 1=:.L)=%PPY ( I .L.GT. L ~ .Oe] G O 70 1500 1670 TMPBnl.L. 3 ~ ~ I f Tf h ~( I . L & . 1671 T~PA=XPID~I.J\IT A t 4 0 I J S E ChLY R E c 9 H O E O P A I R S 1643 b ~ ~ ~ ~ ( ~ . Tto I t13 1dbC 1642 C CIl. S .Ll \65U sns ( T .X.x.En.L)=3"A (r.o. L ) = T ' 4 P S r T M P h k 1 . K ) = ~ o A (x. E R .)/TEMP 1672 C 9 E T A I k ALGEbq4IC SIGN 167 3 T C ( T % P A .LE.695 1 5 : ~ ~n 1633 $ = ~ D N S T J 1695 IF (K. L ) / T E ~ ~ P ] 1668 C E L T ~ I ~ A TPEA 1 9 3 ~ I T H ZERO Y A H I A h C E P R O O I J C T 1667 IF(TVP.L) 1b 6 b T ~ P = ( J O A ( I ~ K .YI=NCA~~(II%IL) ISSI ~ ~ ~ K A ( I .K.EO.L)=JCJD(I. I ) T ~ P ' G c ~ ~ ~ L ) 1540 XU1.L)=~'J~~~IIK.L)-SU~'A~X~K~L?*~~JYR(I~K~L.L) 1655 X ~ A ~ ~ I I ~ L I X ) = X ~ A ~ ( I .T P P R 674 TMPA=THPA*T~PA/TtjP lb75 :A ( t 1 K .X) 1635 1FITEHP. T T N ~ J E t 683 1 5 3 C Cnl. K .K. L T . l t P e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ . L l = O .by) 16411 ~ F C T I ~ P .K.C)+T~P*TNP 1608 XPAR(X.i2 I b33 rtr+! 1634 TFHP=Q[N. 1 T M P R ~ .)+T)~P 1646 3Q& (I.L]+TEPPtTE?tP 1h47 Q n s [I. \ 5 h O ) 1692 l56C F C I K M A T ( / l B H D A T A OUT C f O R D E R ) 1693 G f l TO 130 1594 cx * r ** * READ C O R ~ E L ~ T I C N CPEFF~CIENTS a * * * * * * * * * + u * . 9 1675 ITP=I 1677 LA=I.lIGO TO 1600 1697 ITP=N-1 1698 D t l 1590 L U I P I T P 1699 C C U R H E ~ TYONTk C ~ R P E L ~ ~ ~ O N l?CO .L)=~~Y~(I. L ) 1652 SUP~(~.I. K . N S T A ) G O 1 0 1326 1586 *ACTvLsX)~2A(T~KpL) 1687 1520 C ~ > .K.x. L . L I * T E M P Z T M P i6U9 IFCL. U I L J !bfb 1 4 1 0 CnCTXNUE !$ 5 7 147C tnh?lN!JE 1558 1 4 9 0 CnNTTNtJE 1b S 9 C * * * * * COkfPIJTE C O R R E L A T I O N C u E F F I C I E S T J * * * * r * * a z ¶ * r 1609 Qd 1 5 3 0 I X l r 1 2 lhhl 90 1 5 2 0 L=KY.X ibai l49U lf=(snt s r ~ .K.O) T'lP=!J(H-\.~.K.K.L) 1653 3qA (IrLDK)=S[lij fI.)*TEPP \ 605 ~~J~~(I.K. L ~ K I = ~ ~ ~ ~ ( ~ . L ) * S E ~ ~ C I P K .NSTA) G O 70 lObC t h5O ~:CJB(X.

XSTA(N))GO TO 1550 1745 C *d CARD 3 ** 5796 EEA~(S.=LX.K)Bls 17 26 1 6 3 0 CnYTINUE 1727 C * * * * * * R E A D FREQUENCY S T A ~ J S ~ ~ r~ $e ! r t * r * * * * a * * * * 1728 3 0 1 6 0 0 K=IINSTA 1729 C n* CARD N t D 0 ** 1730 qFAI'(5.tiE.YSTA f K ) ]GO TO 1 5 5 0 1732 C G E N E R A L I Z t O 3 T h 1 1 3 T I C 3 J N ONE C A R D PER 3 I A T I O N 1733 AV~YCK]=AV(lIK) 1734 Avt~Nf~)=av(t.(~XEN(III(~II=~. 7 0 1I T + P . N S T ~ ~ !767 YF[LK. I : . 121 1702 ~~'J~K. ~ r L X ) 17 7 0 IF(L. I I G O TO 3C2C 1754 I F t x 3 ~ n .GE.I) LASLX 1714 on 1 6 1 0 L.~~) 1747 IF(ITP.l) ISTA(Kl=STldP 1719 IF(~. L ].En. N E . I S ~ A ~ K I T) P~ ~issn 1705 IF~I:EHP.11 LXJNSTA*K 1712 Lb.NEsX3T~(K))G0 1550 l7a8 C CARD 9 *r 1709 ~ E A [ ~ ( ~ . ( R A ( I ~ K .K.EG.~o~ITP~C~~(IIK)II=~~~~I 1701 IF(ITP.LE. L .LA 1715 STP~I--~+sTA 1714 c *4 CARD K OR n ** 1717 ~ E ~ O ( 5 r l ITOHPII ITEMP.K~L) 1721 I F ( X T ~ P .K)GO 7 9 1b90 1768 IF(L.ISIA(L)IGC TO 1450 1706 23 I S A O r a 1 1 1 2 1707 15aC R h ( r . l l G U TO 2 3 1 0 1755 D l 1720 X a t r l 2 1756 IP=I-l 17 5 7 IF(7P8LT.llf~=i2 1738 C f l 1710 K=~INSTA 1759 ITP=Y+1 1760 Bn 1 7 4 0 L=ITPI~~STAX 1 761 C L A V O K C l I f i ~ E L A T I r N PC39:8LY VISSING 1762 IF(P~(I.LX)G~ TO lb9O 1749 ~ E M P = Rl A1 .E~.K.L) .EQ.NE.ll XMX(X)=I"Y(K)+!~ 1700 I F (1!4!4(~). N E .I~.!)J~Y~[X)~~THP 1704 I F ( I T I ~ P . ("1.NJT~)&C T c 1bbO 1771 . 1 8 T ~ ( I T P l 190 1 0 1 5 5 0 1723- 1610 CPRTfNUE 17i?4 00 1629 I Z i r l 2 1725 lh2C 94(?.101 I $23 1718 I F (K. I 1737 * ~ t d Ix Y I = I T ~ P O ~ ~ ~ J ( I ~ ) 1738 * ITU~=Jv(Sr~)+sl 1730*2* I t 4 h ' ( ~=f l t Y P 0 h n f 129 2739 r 3F I X M X ( K ) .LT.K) 1735 SO~V(*)=AV(~~K) 1736 I? ~ ‘ ? = A V ~ ~ ~ K ) + .tiE.~)IST~(ITPI=I~E~P 1720 I F CIGNRLaEQ.I::t.~C)ITP.EQ. I T E ~ P l CRA[TIK.ISTA[K) IGn 70 1550 1751 1 5 4 3 COhTIWUE if52 t T * 9 * r r * E B T I H A T E H I 3 3 I k G C F R H E L A T I O k CtJEFFXCIENT8 * * * * * 1753 1 6 5 0 I F ~IGNRL. ~ E .L)=P~(~.l) I ~ Y ( K ) = I P ~ ( K ] + ~ ~ 1741 XF(XG!4RL.F~.KILI 1703 IF[YGNKL.C ** CARD L ** 1701 ~ c 4 n ( 5 .1) RAV(KIK)~R~[I. T ~ ~ K ) ? C O f C 1550 1722 X F ( T T E H P 8 N E .EQ.!J:.IIGD TO 1 6 4 0 1702 C * a CARD P *C 17a3 FEAP(~. 1765 C L X sEA2CHES dLL S E L I T E O CORRELATLONS EXCEPT F O L L C b I N S ~ T H1 7 6 6 Dn 1 4 9 9 L X ~ ~ .=N3TAX 1713 I F I1GNRL.L~ .EO.EO. 1764 RHIrJ=*l.AO) ~TPI(AVCIIX)II=~~~~) 1731 IF(ITP. K ) = R A ( I t X I L ) 1708 19qC C n h Y I N U E 1709 C P R E C E D I N G M O h l P CDRPELATTON 1710 1 6 0 0 LYZVSTAA 1711 f F IIGNRL. ~ O ) I T (D0(1 PI tkj 1 ? = ! ~ 1 2 ) 1750 I F (TTP.)) G O T Q 1700 1763 Q~Axtl.

~ T .=fi2*R2) **. * T E H ~ * T E M P ) * ~ ~ .NBTP) RA(Itb.LT.GT.GE.AIITE~~~) 1b 2 5 C R A I S E LnwEST CCEFF ICSEVT IF INCU~~XSTEN? 1826 A~l=C1. N S T A ) ~ A ( X ~ L ~ K ~ ~ R A ~ I# L~IY 1794 1/00 C n k T I N U E 1795 1716 C f l u T l N l ~ E 179b 1 7 2 ~CqkirxtiuE 1799 ~g t n 2 3 1 3 1798 CJ * * * * TE3T FOR TR338 CUhSISTENCY * * * * * * * * * * * * * * a 1799 173C NCSaO 1600 17aC FAC=L.~ 1993 I F ( C . A N D I.O.O] GC t p l b 9 g 1783 T?dpA=( (1 .L) 1818 ITP=L+~ 1819 On 1 3 0 0 ~ x = l t P . .C4tNC4+$ i e02 I F (NCA.M s T h X 1820 J?EMP=LX*NSTA 182 1 P~=RA(I#KILX) 1522 IF ( L .NSTAX)GO TO 1 8 1 0 181b L4rLmh'gTA 1817 ~I=UA(I.GT. G T .72 IF (PdrN.RWAX)WMAX~T~P~ 1780 TWPB=T>~P~-TYPA-THPA 1769 IF ~ T H P S . L T ~.K. R 2 ) G O TO 1770 1830 IFCPl.I f i s l N = s ! .~ 1827 A c ~ =( I . C ) = Q H X M 1836 IF (L.)TM~AUO.LT. N S T A ] R ~ ~ R A ( I V L ~ ~ X I 1823 C .HBTA*I~] 60 TC 1750 1803 #RIPECbr1840] 1a04 Gn TO $ 5 0 1805 145C N C 8 = 0 lOOb Nc=n 1a07 176C I U E C Z O 1808 on 1930 1=1. L E .LE.X S E A R C H ALL RELATEO TRO I$ OF G O H R E L CCEFS I 6 12 00 iaao K~~INSTA !A13 IT'~P=K+~ 1814 Gn 1. T P P C ~) ~ ~ ) 1/84 I F (YYPA. 1785 T'PP h=THPA**a5 1786 TMP!3=TMP*TEYP+THpA 1787 IF (TWPA.~ 3 r R 3 ) t*.R3) 70 1 7 8 0 1 a34 R U ~ M ~ R ~ ~ ~ S ~ ~ C I * A C S * ~ A C l '?a0 f f ~ Q P ~ I N . R ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ R H I N ~ T H P B 1790 a690 C O K T I N U E 1791 C A V E R A G E 3HALLEST PAX AND LIRGES~ M f N COYZISTENT VALUE 1792 R~CZ~K~L]+(R!~AX+HY~N)*. 1801 I.t2 taa9 IP=I-l 1810 IF11Pe~TallXP=12 1811 c Y .GE. BQT3 L AhD LY REPRESENT PRECEDING M O N T H 1824 JF(~.LT. 1E41 IF(R~.ER. .910 L=XTMP.RHIN) G O TO i e a c 1842 INDCsi 1843 .-I ! P~XY~-l.RUINI GO t n ieao 1630 Iunctl 1835 S A~ ~ .HSTAY 1815 I F [L. K . L.-~.-9l*RI)*b.NSTA)Q~=UA(:PIL.R3] G G T f l 1740 1831 ?P~N=R~*R~-AC?*AC~*FAC 18.-l . C E . 1772 1773 1774 1775 1776 1777 1778 1779 1780 1701 1782 i b a c I F CT~P+TEHP.GT.S 1829 f ~ [ 7 1 .K~~R~'IN 1837 t n T O 1800 1a38 1770 $F(Q?. t a33 IF(R~.5 1829 A C ? = ( t .LT.LT.

&I .r...2 . .- c- U i u . f W F r rF( 4 H r M 0 fU 0 " U..0 ?..a % * .C * X F U ~ .A J ~ W .H - a . -1 1 h G L C L C ~ .- -.a a e . . e m u .) O U c v m lo 0 W c m rn . ~ Y ~ .. w C + U W ? ~ .?C~ ~ O ? ~ ~ c t .L : U J Z Z O > Z C X k L C k & C h " b e L & C h * C L C C C a U . -s .~ Q ~ U ~ T . .4 C 4 ~ m t ..r c x cun.W 0 J W J 5%- m e ? +4 u c w u n18 -1 0 c Q b IC zcc-cam b O M -0 +-i d 4 .8 % rPW en o r Q O 1 4 .-.-. .xC-a err F (P 0 0- (F 0 C c . I W n a ~ ~ a ' n a a e a a ~ w n -scar o ZHO 2 o omom-.~ C ~ N W n 11 I I X C ~ .-.. ~ : ~ U C . ..o n ~ n n J1: H J4?4crrt 0 9 3 aac -7t-n o c J-+- E c m(l: rocro 9 d W Q w o o r r c d 3 ~ n n .am= - 00 m z t c t I I I I W W ~ ~ I I ..x Cj u 0 4 cr n -.-.d m n o * ~ . Lt r C . u 4 :c U d - CP 0- .Y H C * * J 0 0 87dm. .aG 0 *.w 002 O'A l&J .c r ~ t e t n m 4 I- a C O W N d 4 O*W.I M ~ d z .n $4 UYOU o U a LI 13 7- ( r C 2 6 4 c 2 I . ~l -.- -a z m uon - 0 0 3 3 -7 a 0 . 0. n m o (I m(U4 2 -x F -- roc. A ? = ' K .I ~ ~ ~ .8. N nld-qa -O.n . * w N Z ~ Z Y Y .L W .P .IF- W W T-% 3 r J CCb- M O W H u >=gz C ll U U ~ J Z X .W HY n N U 3 N 7 .u.n o F--.. ~r r~ 7~ 0_ .1 7 ~1-17 L C W P Z J # ~ F7 P G C a t l e a n d O + m + I ~U ~ C + ? . w Z 9 w r L - z . J T G C ~ ~ ~ J .LLCU . 4 4 M W -2nd -c wc a 2w X -.A ? ~ f i . 00 RI v1 w w 7 0 CF V < 3 c 0 m.r . . .

I rq 2110 1963 209C f TPPcLTP 1464 LTPZ. ~=l.l o ) 1910 C e * t a a * PRINT C C R R E L J T I B h MAT93X * a r * Q * * * * t e r + z * 19R.PTJflk! C O F F F T C I E N T ~FOR ~ O N T H l ~ 3 ) 1984008 IFITTR+JS.13 ?EHPa.2 1932 1FfFAC. 7 0 ) I.21fiO)~O(Zl 19*3 2 1 8 0 F t l a u P ~ ( / / 3 9 ~ F41v COHCEl. 1947 /F(TE"PoGT.GT..L)=fi ~ L I L X I 195Q LTPaLTrlF f L ) i 9% JTP=JTHP(LX) !q5b b'r(l TP. ~%ITH ~H C U U A E N P kfOk7H) 1970 .NVAR I952 P (L P C X I = DBCE ( T P P P * T P F + S U " * T E M P ) 5153300 IF(LX.LX) G O TO 2075 1940 T M P P = ~CLICXI 1941 Y~IM~SUM~THPP 1942 207C C n h T I N U E 1943 2 0 P C CDNTZNuE 1934 TEHP=UINDP*NINDP 1945 S~I.SST4) h~(XpJTPtLTP)=R(CILX) 1968 P I ~ CC ~ ~ T I ~ U E 1469 ~ a a cC G ~ T I N U E 1970 .NYAR 1939 I f (L~E~I.LT?.GT.LTP.V=SL.E(/TEHP 1946 TEYP=DTQPC-l. J T P ) = % ( L ~ L ~ ] 1967 I F ( lTP.~TA = LAX) 1917 .2040) b4. a -.X.K.10) GO 70 150 1936 311)~=0. . 202C CONT!NUE M A T R I X CON313TEhT I F C O H R E L D D E 9 NOT E X C E E D 1. 1937 Cn aoq!.GTom.LE. Z G ~ CRII.N%T~) t o TO 2 1 0 0 1957 IF(TTP.iIGb TO 1950 1933 'JCOrnl 1934 Nrh+l 1955 IFiN. 0 ) G O TO 1860 1978 IF(TTRYS. 2 1 9 0 1H O ~ I ) 1985 2 1 9 C FOFHAT C / / 4 0 ~ C O N S I S T E K T CDRRFLATTON 4 A t k I X HOtdTHII3) f 58bOOO ~ R X T E ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ I ~ T A [ K I I K ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ T A I 1981 2230 F O Q r A l (/3X'3HSTl. 1817) 19A8000 ~PXPECSIZ~~O) 19149 2 2 1 0 F K I R H A T ( ~ ~ Y .T~P 1965 JYP=ITHP 1966 2 r o C RArr.Z) G O TO 3 1 C O iY79 ai7c .DTYPC 1926 2040 F f l f i ~ A T 1 / 3 6 H INCCl~SISTEhT CORREL M A T R I X A0JU3?ED.LE. f ~ r r w c e ..t) 1 la 1919 N20 1 920 YC=D 1921 C ==:==t==== 1922 t o 3 0 CALL C R O U t f R j C --- a"--' .l 194a TuP=l.LEeNSTA1 GO TO 2090 1738 LYF~LYP-%~TA 1999 JTP=JTP-N974 1960 QA~TP.LTP)=R(LILX) 1962 G!.JTP)xR~L. .0) GO 7 0 1740 1915 2 1 4 C CnKTIUUE 1976 t l h C CqfTINlJF 1977 I F ( 1 T E w ~ ~ E 9 .J?P. N I ~ P 1950 L?P=L $1 1951 ~n z l i a LX=ITP. -a- I F t P T Q ! l C s L E s l e l G O TG 2 1 3 0 1923 1924 1925 4RITF(b.) ~ C J PO 2 1 4 8 1972 i R I T E ( b .$TAA) 3 ~~LE(~~(I.12 t9a2 IFfrTRt43. .E.'JZNDPl P(LX.OI ~ ~ 1 T E ( 6 .K~LxII 1916000 JT~*Q~Y.-TEMP 1944 Dn aiao L = ~ .LE~R) H&ITE(6..tlX~t)P 1938 D ? 2070 LX:l. 1974 2 1 4 C IF(MCR.~12.3) 1927090 C hITHCdPY 1 9 2 4 .314. .1 9 3 1 FdC=FACm. DO 2260 1=1.n ~n 2 0 3 0 1971 t t j IFlD?:i7iC.II.Cr.EO.I.I.GEs0.LX) 196 1 ~A(~~.DTR!!C 1973 DTFF(C=O.

K ~ L ] ~ L : I ~ ~ S T ~ ) 1992 2250 F ~ ? : ~ A (~x.~OP=:JI%DP+~ 2032 ITEMP=tJThOP 2033 Xf~'iNOP)=I(Y~l. Y ) G O TO 23qq 2031 N. ~ JR (A~(.370 2050 2 3 J E IF(q(w-1 .!. o l t P 7 0 310C ?OOO IF[JTaN8.al.T~ CD TC 2380 2059 ITE!qP:ITEnP+l 2060 ~ ( ~ T K C P ~ I T E ~ P z) R B L E [ R A ( I x .l) G O TO 220C 2003 ?TF=i(-l 2086 " 0 2270 t. ~ ) GI: 7 0 2 8 7 0 .)) 2040000 = 2 .LE. (AA(I.T) GO PO 2530 2025 C F G R t l C 6 R H E L A T I F h r A l R 1 Y FOR EACH HISSING F L O b 2026 hf~ D P J o 2027 fjn 2 3 9 3 t s l .L)eNF. ~ ~ T A ( ~ ) ~ ~ ~ A ( I ~ K2 0 ~0 8 I .Tl G U TO 2 3 5 0 2OUb ~ ~ ~ n ( ~ ~ ~ h l .'P) a DPLEfRA (I.IF (?X.?~sTA 20a4 J u s t 4+N!+TA 2045 I F I O ( H n L ) .oI GP T O l b 9 n 2001 ~ F ( ! P C H S .LT.NSTA) G9 70 Z39C ZQ42 ITP=L+l FOa3 D i ? ~ S R ~L A JsI~P.*NSTA 2029 IF(R(W. X ~ L X ) ) 2035006 ~n r n 2 3 3 0 2036 z32C V r h 0 P = ~ r t .KC.3002 C PU'icH E S ~ E ~ ~ T I A E cLE H E K T S OF M A T R I X 2003 Cn 23.~.?') G O TC 2380 2051 fTFYP=rTENP+l 2052 R f h YbinP. ~ ~ S T A 2024 IF(O(M.E2. I (K .L) 2034 P(NTNDP.L) .O) 60 TO 2 6 1 0 ?O!b ~lV~P=K3?A+1 2017 !r: 1 2016 2600 JSI. J s v H l t wp k ~ ~ ~ p M r ObK .r) G O TO 2320 2030 I F (B(M-1 . E 60c TO .~) t I=lf12) ao!l 230C C~~KYINI~E 2012.rT~ 2007 227C ~ ~ I T E ( ~ I ~ ~ ) ~ ~ T A ( K ) ~ .ODC 20urnoo IFfL.?PeITEMP+I 2055 R ( N T % ~ P . b i S ? A 2004 IF!K.Jxll 2053000 Gn TO 2 3 7 0 2054 235C I ~ ( 3 t ~ ~ L A 3 .NYAR) r D ~ ~ L E ( R A ( I .l) lx=lt 2022 ~t=r+l 2023 Dn % S R Q K = ~ . L ~ L A ) ) 206 1 0 0 0 C ADO 3YHMETRICAL ELEpEhTS 2063 .00 K U l .LA) .K.!i?r 199 1 2 2 2 0 ! J v l ~ B ( 6 1 2 2 3 0 r) q t r ( x ) . r j s 7 n 1997 2 2 5 0 L i " T T E l h ~ 2 2 3I ~ )~ T 1.L~. t a $ T A ~ ZOO9 LTFHP=LI~S~~$ 26 10 ?aQc ~ Q I T E ~ ~ . t )60 TC 2360 2055 ItE.Is. 3 3 ~s t ? i r r r n ~ . xTEI. t ~ . p n 7220 K81.LE.LA. ~ 9 T A mas LY=l. L E .al 613 T O 3 ~ ~ 6 20 1 S IF (T9COS.K).NE.L) 203 9 ~ r > : f k ! G p ~ h U A f f=j DPLE(Rh(IrKr1.EG.ISTI Y ) ( I T E P P ) .EQ. ( Q A ( ~ . f f E Y ~ :a GBLE(9b(:. ~ r : : I ) ~ ) I . G O Tn 2 8 5 0 2013 CL * * * * *Q E C l l N d T ' t T U T E M I S S I Y G DATA* * * * * * * * * * * * 9 201G * 2310 IFfTANAL.~ ~ ~ = ~ ~ ~ ~ 22RC ?290 L a t < 3 T A A . T 18~7.EO.22~o) 1994 2 2 a C F ~ $ : ~ A( T2 0 r .n r n 2.31 19936017 icXTEfb.T H~ A T A B O V E S T A ~ I O N ) 19950 0 0 ITP='lSf A+! 1996 on 2 2 5 0 ~ a l .LA). 1 2) 3 4 0 20 4 7 f TFYP=XTEHP+I 2048 f v o ~ .L)~L=ITP~NJTAX~ 19P3 t Z h C Crl!:TJwuE 1999 IF ( l h N A L .IX)) 2057000 ~n r~ 2370 2058 236C IF(o[P-!. ~ OT I J ~ ~ (. D P * l 2037 ITEM?=~IINDP to38 X~~T~~PIZ?(H.NYRS 2019 C O 2590 re1112 2029 IX=I-I 202 l . F 2 . E f l . I ? E ~ F )a O P L E ( R a (!.LIL~9) krr 20a9000 r.

o T O ~ I C ) * ~ .GP.~.I GO TO a s t o 209 1 C I n I T V A H X A ~ ~ LwET f H L E A S T I F M A T R I X I N C O ~ ~ I S P E N TO 2092 C CJgRELATZOh 2073 2430 I T Y P = N f N O P = I 2094 I F ( T T P . K ~ L x ) ) 207 1 0 0 0 240C I T E M Q = N I N O F + l 2072 D n t u l o L=I.NI~DP 5073 t41C R IL.L)+1 2129 SIJMAC~~XIL)=SUP~(I~KSLI+TP 2129 ~UWRCIIKILI=S~JPR(IIK.CI+TPP 2130 EOA C I . L b ) = R ( L + l . L E .Tl G d 7 0 2'560 2126 C COUFIT AHD USE C h L Y PECORfIED P A I R S 2121 NC6R(I.1 206 7 Xtl)=O.GT. S T A X 2120 IF(L. G ~ (a. ~ ) T*P=Q(~. 2079 I~IOC=O 2080 o n 2 4 U 0 ~ = 1N.LI+TP*TP 2131 3aR ( I D K . L ] = ~ O G ( I I K p L ) + T ~ P * T N P 2132 XPA~~CI~K~L)=~PAB(I.E.OTR~~C.Ol G O T O 24'50 a m 0 I F ~ D T R ~ ~ C .0) G O TO 2400 2OQ6 K INDP. A T O G C 7 0 2 4 4 6 2086 I ~ ( P ( L . 2 3 7 ~R ~ I T E M P D N I N B P I = R ( N I N D P . I T E H P ] 2063 2380 c n t .AF~D.K)=TEHP 2116 O~(V.LI 2124 I F (LX. B t C ) . N ~ T ~ ) 60 TO 2'540 2134 . ~ 2112 TEf1P=TEY~*4L 2113 On 2530 ~ a l .0) THP=G(H*l PLY) 2125 SF ITPP.EO.U]ZE 2117 TD=rj(u.O. L T . O ~ m A h O . I N D P 208 1 B ~(Ls ITEHPI T M P ~ D A (R 2062 IFtTMP. 2068 P(1.CJI=R(L~LP+II alas 2SOQ C n h T I N U E 2103 NTNnPZIIHP 21014 I j r ? T 3 242Q 2105 C ADD RANUIIM CUYPONFNT TO ?RESERVE VAR%ANCE 2108 251C YEHP=O.KIL)=~CAB(TpK.GT. ~ . r r ~ u e 2064 231C C n h T I N U E ?Oh5 IF(NtNDP.K. o A k o * 8 (I1 sGT.LA) 2698 2870 X l l ) = ! t (L+J) 2097 t n a a on 2 5 0 0 L Z ~ X. R ~ L I = ~ ~ A CT. I T E H p ) = R ( L p N v P R ) 2074 C Z======ZZL 2079 2a20 C A L L CROUT ( ~ 1 2076 C =========a 2077 ITEk*PnNIHbP+l 2078 TEi4rtl.(nlISl . 2107 9U 2 5 2 0 L = l l h 2108 TEYP=TE~P+H~GE~~(IXX) 2109 ts2c ?Fr9=TEf+p~RNGE~(IxX) ti10 6 COnPUTE FLOW 2111 A L ~ ~ ~ ~ . I T E ~ P ~) G E .K.ffDQ 2069000 LY=K+NSf A 2070 R(1rNVAR) = o B c E ( ~ A ( I .X . G ? ~ I T H P I G O TO 2 4 8 0 209s on 2e70 L=ITI>~I~UP 2096 D n 2460 L A z l r l T E H P E097 ZPhC 2 ( L .Eo.TEW1 60 TO ad30 2093 TFMP=T#P 2084 I~P=L aoas 2430 I F ( Q ( L D r T E Y P ) . G T .1) t l. T P P a100 na 2 4 9 0 L A = I T P .L)+TP~THP 2133 I F ~ L . N X N D P 2101 2119~ s IL.KI GO TO 2 5 6 0 2ltl C SUQSC?lPTJ E X C E E D I N G h S T 4 R E L A T E TO P R E C E D I N G H U h T H 2122 L Y l l -NSTA 2123 I ~ ( I . * i I h D P 2114 2 5 3 ~T F P ? = T E % P + ~(LI a x (CI 2115 DCu. : . .O L S l e 4 0 e ( L 1 GC YO 2440 2087 INDTO~ ma^ 2440 C n h T I N U E 2069 IFIPEDC.GT. L E .!t) 2118 C ADD N E U VAbUE TC SUaS OF SQUARES AND CHQ39 PRODUCTS 2119 DC 2560 L ~ ~ ~ P ..

II t~p=t2 LA=L.L) SqP (I.L)=I~.LX)+TP*YHP I ~ ( t ' C A 9 ( X T P p L .X)+T~P ) +PTIPL ~ ~ S ~ I H : ~ ( ~ T P ~ L .L.) G O T O 2560 TMPi!=f. X . I P P A : X ? ~ E [ I T P .LE.I-. L .~(A~I. K .KfL) XPAH ( I . L .LA) eLT. G E .L.LT. K ) = S m 2 (T##.IX~+T~P*7PP SflD ( i T ~ r L . L ) ~ S ~ N ~ ( ~~ K .RY. ~ ~ S ~ A ) Gn TtJ 2560 ~ I fI T i.L. L t l w)+TP*YP XPA~(~TP. '~C~~[~.N~YA) G R t a 2550 ITPDIw! TF(~TP.I-~LX)=~-C~HIITP. ~ ~ (AI T P .L) ~ l l ~ ' ~ ~ I r L .K)=RA~X~KIL) 2 5 6 0 CO%TXNUE tYnP=~yRg*12+1 I F ( ~ .OO RA(I.X. L X ) ~ ¶ U M B ( I T P I L ~ L X ) / T E ~ ~ P .L%)=SOd [X?P..ITPP~~=-THFR innh=THPb tTNpA/TttP RA~i. L X ) .o. L .K)X~ICA~~(T.X 25SC X F I s C ( I . .ORsSDCITP.O.OOal.K. L Y ) = ' ~ U " ~ ( XI T SdA (ITP. K .L. L x I T P P = [ $ c A ( I ~ P .K)=SOP (I.5 Irror tA=L IF(L.L. L . K ) . K ) = X P A ~ ( I .L)/TEHP) C E L I Y I h A T E P A I A S W I T P ZERO V A H X A N C E PROOUCT IF(T~P.~ L . I F ( L .K. L x ) = 8 u H A I~TP~LI~. K ~ L ) ~ ~ ~ J H ~ i (I.2) GO T P 2570 TEf'P=FCAE t I T r .2) ) G o TC 2560 ~ E ~ F ~ N C A ~ ~ I I K I L I T ~ P = C S Q A ( I .LI*~~P~R(~. L . L X ) = ~ o S ( I T F .LE.L.] 6(f 9nA ( 1 J L .LE8O*) G O TO 2 5 7 0 rk<PSzI. K ~ L.s L J ~ A ~ I T B . L . K ) = . ~ IF(TYP. L X ) / T E ~ ~ P ) ~ 1 [sf. K) nn2 ~ 7 0L = ~ .LT.LT. L Y ) .LE. x I . N S T A TwF=? t t r + f ~ L I 1FlT~'n. ~KI!. L ) * S ~ J H A ~ I ~ K ~ L I / T E ~ P ) * ( S Q ~ ~ I .I) G C TO 2 5 9 0 LY=X+NSTP IT P z Z + l 12) IT p J l I F (rTp. L ) C R E C t 7 H l r t l r E C O R R E L A T T f l N C Q E F F I C I E ~ T STO IHCL1Jl)E N E k D A T A 2540 I F ( P J C A ~ ~ . & T .L.k'. L .\[ j T P .KIL)*~U~~~(Z~K.3 ! J ~ .K)~~!JVa(l..YIL) ~!j!'h(l. L r ~ ~ ) ' 9 1 1 ~ t j ( fXI ~ *~~ rU ~Y R (ITP~L~LX)/TEMP) .L)=THPOaT!IPA**.EG.L)/TE~P C R E T k I E A L C E S R A I C SIGH IF~T~~F&. THP~~xPAB(IIKPL)~~U. LLX ) Y S U Y A ~ I T P .LX~+~ 3 r l r A I 1f P r L .. CC~~(~TP.r. I T ~ P l G O T O 2586 T E ? P=R ( M .LX)=KP~B~ITP~L.LE.

.

)) G O TO 2910 2310 iTt'?=l ~ * N Y R S + ~ 2311 U n 2900 t J J i ? . c l 1 l 2 ) 2293 I A I T E C6.GE. ':=o 2324 ZTPNS=I 2325 I ~ ~ ~ ~ X ~ ? C S .71A 23 14 I T ? = CKX. 23ao DR ?900 I 3 1 .E.~su$=l 2283 IF(IPCON.GT.) . t X Y ( I . K l * I 0 1 1 1 2 ] 2353 * ~ ~ ~ T E ( ~ I ~ ~ ~ T S T A I K ) J C S C [ ~ ~ I O ~ ~ ~ ~ .K. 8 9 0 ) IYOII). K ) = ~ ( M . S ~ ~ C ~ K X . NS I P AT b S )~ C tIl~.I=i. ~ . I ~ ) 2300 ~ I U ~ ~ F ( ? ~ P ~ ] X C~ STK ~E k( ( K I a IK . K )1. L I I P A ~ ~ ~ 289C C R G T I N U E 2320 29CC CflfTINUE 232 1 C 2322 + r * r * M A X AkO H I N RECChST1TUTEO FLOkS tt * * * * * * * * * * + 2323 2-7 1 r. ~ ~ ~ ~ F ~ Y I .103n) (sKE'~[I.IPAS~) 2 0 6 ~~ ~ M . K ) + ~ .Kj=O.~) G O ~n 2930 2294 r IFCNCSTY. K I L ) 2346 IF~L.KI r l t l ~ \ i ? ) 2294 ~ E T T E( 6 . 3 ~ 1 2'39 an 3000 K s l r ~ S i A 2300 C AVFshGE CflRREbATXGN C Q E F F I C X E N T 23a1 00 7 9 3 0 L t i r K 23a2 LY=L+N~TA 234s KSU ~XILISO. 23G9 . L E . 2316 Dn 2 8 8 0 t = l r ~ T P 2317 ITE'P=~STAC(YY. ( . l o 2 0 ) ( S ~ ( I . ] * ?279 200C C O ! T I N l l E atao 2H!C CPkTIvUE 220 J L Q TA P ~ ~ ~ R T A P 2282 . (nQ(IpK).L]+TXP 2348 Fikv(~. L E .LE.. K l I I=! .l. * T E 2278 ~P~+~) ! / f b b ~ ~ ~ 3 * c ~ ~ Y ' 4 3 ~ 1 . S ~ T E N P * ~ S ~ A + ~ . K ) ~ ( A U Y R S * * ~ ~ ~ Y ~ . ~ICOHR 2323 1<=gl(+N.GE.~=YxRC$ 2330 ITWP:~TMP-PX~C~ 2331 IF(TTHP. O ] G O 10 293C 2328 tjz&+f 2329 %.L)aRa~(~. 2 ) E O 10 3 0 t C i?337 c + * a * + CDNPUTE G E N E ~ A L I Z F D S T A T I S T I C S * *** * * * * * * * 2338 isrr~[61 .O) G O 90 373C 2332 ITVP=HXQCS+IfMF 2333 YJ=TTPP 2334 I Pl4D20 2335 ~n ~n 3730 2336 293C T F ( I t & R L . ~ T E Y P ) ~ C .L)/lt. K S T h 2302 ~ Q T T E f 7 r B O ) Iq T A ( K ) .K)**J) ~ ~ ~ . GLOE T~OO 2qZO I 2326 frrv=wy!?g 2327 %92C I F ( ? f Y ? .121 2295 sac c n h r r t u ~ 2296 C P ~ I N TC U M S f S T E h ? t f l R 4 E L A T l O h ? l b T R I X 2297 ITRPIS=I 2298 f i n rn a t s o 3299 2A90 !F I T P c H s .hkST4 tasi M P I T E (4. ( ~ V ( I ~ K ) I I = ~ ~ I ~ ! ) 22Q2 RITE [ b .1010) 13TAfK). hSD(I. l 2 ) 2305 ! I L ' I ? E ( Y X ~ ~ ) I S T A ( K ) .i?l 2290 n n a600 K=N3TYX. I T r p 2312 g o an90 KXZ!.? .L%¶ t347 2946 QAVfKnL)8RIV[K. 1 2 23a5 T"P=RA ( I .Y)THF=%A(I.lZI 2306 2 8 b C CnhTItJlJE 2307 c C O M P U T E ~Q*BII~ATIUN FLOWS 230e 6 2309 t P P C IF(FJCR3R.L. O I 60 T O 2 3 7 0 2300 C P I I N C H FPECUEP'CY S T 4 T I S T I C S 2361 3fl E S & O K = I J S Y i X .I"l . I = l . ~ K E U ( I . ) * ~ 1 . P E . t a ~ n ) ( D t ~ ( f .U) G O TO t z q o 228s c P R I b I T ADJUSTED F h ' E l r t E h C Y STATISTICS 2286 242C ~ ~ 1 t E ( 6 r l O ) 2287 s2TtEC6~2830) 2288 2 B q C FflQflkT(/30W kDJI'SPED F R E C U E N C Y S T A T I S T I C ~ I 2289 '<PT?'E ( 6 .

K)GO T O 3030 2402 C U N f F f l X g S E R I A L C O R R E L INTERMEDIATE H C N T H S BND l N T E R * S T A 2463 Rb[InK. ) A v ( ~ ~ K ) Z3'57 IF(AVMX(K).W)+AV~I. aa!e ITP=IHXCK) 2 a l ~ A v ( ~ T P . I .GT. ?378 30CC C n h T f N U E 2379 blRXTE(6r 1 4 0 ) 2360 Dn 3010 ~ = l .K#Ll ?a05 303C C n N Y I H U E 2404 RA(I.K) ?GO7 RhCInK.GE.2 2420 AA[ltP.9~1 TMPte98 2423 IF(TEMP.KXI=TENP 2Q%1 .L~SO)N~XPN~~PX~UN*~~! 2331 !dYl~MX=b-pYXMY 2392 D o 3043 l = l n l t 2393 C S T A ~ l D A R D O E Y I A T I O K uNIFGRH.. G E ~ ~ M P I GTOO 2980 2369 ~ v r (rN I ~ T H P 2370 IHXCKIsI 237 1 2 9 8 0 I F ( A V M N ( Y .K.OI TEMPZO.LT.GE~TMP)GO 70 2960 235a AVPX (K)JTHP 2359 IMY(#)a2 2360 C R t o 2970 236 1 296C A v M N ( K ) u T H P 2362 IWK(K)Z% 2 363 C AkD A V E R A G E S T b h b A f t D D E V I A Y I O V 2364 2970 3 n A V ( K ) = s D ( i nX)+SflC2tU) 2365 ~n 2 9 9 9 1 ~ 3 ~ 1 2 2366 3QAv(K)=s94v(K)+30(I. M E T AN0 D R Y 3 E A 3 0 ~ d 24 10 T M P ~ R A V ( K # X bI e t 5 2411 TEMPtTHPm .K~LX)~O. L E * Y H P ) G Q T O 2990 a372 A V M N (K)=Yt!p t373 I t c h tIoal 2374 2990 C 9 K T I N U E 2375 A V M X (K)=AVyY (K) /3.l)I~P=12 24 19 AV(tYPnK)~AVMxCK)+. K ) + ~ v ( ~ # K ) .KI=Oe 2394 sn ~ ~ .K)=1e 2468 300C d R h l I N U e 2409 c M E A N AND S E R I A L C G R R E L . 0 3 G O 1 0 3106 2386 D I l 3080 K = l r N 3 T A 2387 XX=X+NS?A 2343 C XNYERHEOIATE EChlHS 2389 NVXYNCIHN (K)-IMX (K)-3 2390 IP(NMX~N.L)t!4AvCK~L) 2 a0 a QA ( T n L .E .K. 3 ~ ? ? € 1 6 r 7 ? 1I s T A ( K I I I S T A [ L ) . 245 1 .K] 2353 tHX(K)%l 2354 AVHN ( K ) e r v ~ X(K) 2355 IMhlKIal 2356 T H P ~ A v ( ~ ~ .K) 2367 ~~P:AV[I-2.K8Kx)r?EHP 2417 IT~EIMXCK) -1 2414 IF(ITPsLT. K ) ~ A U i t XlK)< 2416 Mh(XTP. IF~L. K ) I R A (S. 2377 S O ~ V ( K ) ~ S D A V ? /I 1] 2 . ! i s ? A 2361 ITP~IMx(KI 2582 I T r P = l M t 4 (K) 23133 301C ~ ~ 1 ? ~ [ b r l %~ 0S ?) A ( K ] I A V P Y I K ) ~ S 8 ! 3 0O A ~ ( KA rl ~ UV ( 1 TM p )1 f l f N J ( I Y k( ~ 9K ~ 2384 C * * * * APPLY G E N E 3 A L X Z E D $ T A T Z 3 T I C 3 * * * ** * * * * * * * n a 23P5 30EC I F ( T G N R L . K I = S O A V ( K ) a397 3 f l 3030 L = l r N S T A 2398 C Z E R O C n 2 R E L A T I C N k I T H O T H E R ~ T A T I O Y SAND P Q E C E D I h G H O N T H 2399 LY=L+NQYB 2400 R~CI.K)~AV(I*iIU)+AVCI~K~ 23ha ~ F ( A V ~ X ( K ) .Kx)=QAV(K. SKEW ZERO 2394 JKEWt1rK)XOs 2395 3oCI.3 2412 IF(TMP. 2376 4VVN(X)~AVHN(K]/3.RAV~KIL~ 2350 2'354 C~KTINUE 2351 C AVERAGE L O 6 3 FOR bEP At40 D R Y SEASOY9 2352 AVPX(K)~AV(~~~K)+AV(~~.

?JSTA 2468 an 3 1 0 0 L = ~ . s ~ ~l 3 1~ ~ l v E(RA(I.NPNpX 2452 TI. I l G O TO 3 0 9 0 2448 ITP=INIJCK) a449 TEP~=NNNPX+L 2a50 TFkPz I A V M Y (K)-.K.n T O 3 1 0 0 2478 C C n R R E L A T I O N 8 N17H PPECEDING HOkfH 2479 312C L X = L + k S T A 2480 'J(L. 2aP3000 .K.BE.NSTA 2487 toes 24a9 3lSC + E T A [ l . ~ P ~ O J .Kl 6 0 TO 3120 2471 ~ ~ f ~ . L T ..Gtel2)1=1*12 2405 3050 ~ V C I ~ K I = ~ ~ ~ I T ~ .L~. K J = A V [ I T ~ .LAI = OBLE(RA(IILJLA)I 2475000 I F ( L A ~ G E .~. L . Y ) + T E H P L T I ~ B 2456 309C C P h T I N l I E 2457 309C 11?k!WL=o 2458 XG'CrlNtO 2499 GP T O 1730 2460 310C L F ~ t ! ~ 9 ~ ~ L E .KrhY)I 2431000 an 3 1 3 0 L A = C . L A ) I Z463000 3130 ?(L. I?P=IHx (K)=E 2422 IF(TTP.I) = D R L E ( R ~( I P .l. K ) R(L.l-4VMN (tt) ) / T E M P 2451 DD 3 0 7 0 IX=l.r?nrx 2443 I = I N x t K ) +Ix 2404- IF(I. K ) ~ A V Y( K~ ) = .K.K.LTmXIGfl T O SObO ?438 ITP=IHx(KI 2439 TFMP=NUXpN+I 2aQO ?E~P=(AVHX(K)-. H S T A 2uc9 C C n p 2 E L A T X O N 3 I h CURRENT r O h T H 2470 I F CL. L E ~ O ~ 4 ~ O .) GO TO 3170 249 1 ~fiITE(6. l 2429 ~Z(ITP. L l = b ( L ] 2490 IF!~TRVC. L t .KVhQl = D"LE(RA(1.DtRkC 2492 316C F i y R t J 4 T (34P I N C O N S I S 7 E k l C C S R E L H A T R X X FU9 x = ~ I 3 1 4 t i Vap12. C . GNOP TAf l3 3150 ~LE 2461 * CP * * * * * * FLOI.NXIZ?E#P 2025 ITP=IHN(K) 2426 AV(lTP.LX)I 2476000 3110 P I L ~ B L ] = Q ( L ~ L A I 2477 r. X ) ~ T E H P * T ~ I P 2446 C HEhFJS F O R M O h T P S F Q L L O w I k G D W Y Y E A S Q N 2447 3060 I F ( N ~ i N H X .1) IPJ12 2467 nn 3199 K=I.Lr.LT. 12) 1*i-12 PB55 3070 A U ~ I .!-AVHNIK)]/TE$4P 2401 on TOSO IXSI.11 !TPzITP+i2 ?a34 hV(TTP. N S T A 2482 JfL.L)) 2472ROO nn 3 1 1 0 LA=L.NHXMN 2042 ~.---=-* - D F 3150 L=I.KX)zTHP 2032 T?P=ICN(K)-~ 2433 iFtJTP.NSTA 2073 LY=LA+M~TA 2474 IF I L A .K)=AV~IN(K] 2431 Gh[TTP.KX)aTPP 2428 ITP~IMN(Y)-I aat9 rF(TTPeLf.Y)aAVkiY(K) 2435 E4(ITPIK.lI :TPt11P+!2 2423 A V ( T T P .LT.GT. J ~ D . GEKEAATIOL E3UA110NS a * * * * * * * * e * * r * a 2462 hibDP=A1374 tQ63 NY4P=kSTA+l 2461 on 3200 T=III~ 2ubfi Ip=l-l 2466 fF tIP.K)sAV4N(K) 2427 RA(ITP.IP=IX 2453 I=lwNIK) + I X 2454 IF/I.K~1=T:dP 2436 C HE*vS FCR Y O h T P S F U L L O W I N G HE? 3EAbON 2437 IF(tJYXMN.3160)1rK.l)1TP'12 2430 AV~IYP.ArL)sG(toLA) El484 3 1 4 C C~NTINUE EYBS C at:==z==sz 2486 C ------- CALL CROUT(R) ---. ~ . ~ ) ~ ( L I L A I 3 DBC~(~A(IIL.

O .) ( KE] +Y1 a G O 70 3 2 7 0 2537 2 5 30 2539 2 5 00 ~E~P=~-TEMPI 2541 TPP=(-~YP) 2502 3 2 4 C ~ ~ ~ E ~ I ( K I = ~ . C F T ~ I I ~ ~ = ~ I . 2545 329C C O ~ T I N U E 2506 .E~.SsOi 2519 N. K a ~ . K I .LE. N 3 Y A ~ 2509 '. ~EPPx*~*~KEU/XYP. . 2553 C G E v E q A T E 2 YEAR3 F O R O I S C A R D l N L i 7554 El j = 2 255'5 J'i=-c? 2536 333C IF(YpJS9.Yll**4342943 C~(I 2539 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~AV(ITP.~ A Y ( I ~ ' O ~ ~ ~ ( ~ ~ K J ~ S K ~ ! ~ ( I .3TAT=NSTAT+l 2510 LSTATzNStAf 2511 3230 K = ~ . 0 . ( ~ ~ ~ 8 ( ~ ~ .K) 2536 IF i S K E W C I T F .1) IVP:XYP+l2 2 5 11 '?~=[JA-l)*12+1TP+l-lTYP 2532 Cn 3290 ~ = l ~ r ! s T a 2533 IF I S n C I T P r K ) s E Q c . 3180 ~ I .. U ) + UT7.~. N R T A 2512 a n T T F ( I . / ~ .lO]/SDZIPP. .NE. JX = YEA^ F ~ C .1K .t4P893) SO Tfl 200 2 5 17 3 2 4 0 J4z1 2518 loA. K ~ ~ ~ H ~ 2~5 6A4 ~ M3TY:hsf ~ X n l t 5b5 I~(%. 9 i A T ) I S T A ~ K ) .. I ? H DTRHS=pFba. ~ 2499 2500 319C CONTINUE 250 1 .LT. JY=tYRPJ-1 2547 C N = S E I I u E ~ C E KC. * .GEeO.~ T R ~ C ] P P .iE0 25?0 tfA. 1 ) G n T O 3280 2534 T F ~ P = A L ~ ~ G ( O ( P ~ A . H 3 MGbTH NO.. 7 X0. * ( ~ ~ P ~ ~ ~ ~ P * * ( ~ . ~ T R H C 249a I?TRqC=O.3TATaNSTAt 2 5 1s I F (?PA33.j) 2434000 I P ~ N S I ~ 2495 s o r o 1730 2496 717C r F ( n T R M e . 2502 2503 2504 321C I F (IsTAT.PISTAT) G O ~n 3220 2565 fItiTbT) 2506 LITAT=LSPAT+l 2507 ~n rn 3 2 1 0 2508 3220 ~ ~ X ~ E ( X S T ~ T l ~ A T U Y r N 3 Y A . ~ ~ I ~ ) / ~ K E ~ ~ ~ 2T5 PU j~ K ) + S K E ~ ( ~ ~ ~ ~ K ) / Gfl T I 1 3290 2544 328C d J G E v ( K ) 1 0 .GT.¶Tx~~E.LE. <2 5) 1.l) G U TO 3 6 C C 2557 IF(IPAgS. ) Gb TO 3290 T+!P:1 . E n .I~) 2514 3 2 3 0 N9?4?:N3fAT+i 2515 L. K ) .K.L)~L~~~E~TA)IALcFT~IIx)~I=~.1) GEuERArt FLGbS SO TO 3 ~ 0 0 * a * r * a * * * * * .Zfl ?52 1 ?F fvPqn~. 3 1 ~QET~~~. f i E . O .L. 2 5u8 3300 N = k + i 2509 r>n r a 3330 2550 C S T A R T W I T H Z E R r O E V ~ A T I U N AT ALL 3 T A T I O 9 d 255 1 331C 0 f l 3320 K = I . D R ~ ~ .* .OI GO TO 3 2 6 0 2528 TYYP=~Z 2529 3 2 h C I F IIPP.O G O) T O 3 3 8 6 2566 EXHIBIT b -22- . e C R o ~ A w E r 1 . K ~ T A 2552 332C ?PFEV(X)=O.3 2 0 ~C ~ N T I N U E C * * * * * * IF(NPASS.K)*~~PR f F (TEH*.!) 6 0 TO 3340 2556 RFh 7 K n 1st AT 2539 NCTAPZO 2565 I91 bra0 25hl 3346 R E b I N O rOTAP 256% LRTAPPO 256 3 F E ~ ~ ( I ~ ~ A T ) ~ S T X X ~ ~ S T A ~ ~ S ~ T ~ ~ X J . ) ~ f Tl a 2497 1 ~ ~ I T E t 5 .Ol G O T O 3 3 1 0 2522 Cn * ** * * PPflJECTED FCCh S E ~ I J E N C E 3 * a r 9 ** * a * * a * * * 2523 3250 JA=IyRBJ-IyGA 2524 l=LYRPJ-tY4A 2525 ITt'P=O 2526 ITP=MTHPJ-IMNTP-~ 2527 IF(ITP.~E.

~ ] ~ A V ~ ~ ~ ~ . 1 2 ~ 6a 3 A"~~IIK)=Avc(I. ~ .1) G O TO 3 5 5 0 2618 3f2C XF (LnTAP.lt 2596 .LE.O) ~n to t u o 2589 WPI~E(~.1t:1112) 2574 337C C n F T I N U E 2575 7 3 8 ~"n 339n K = ~ S T X X ~ N S T A 2976 ISTbP=ISTAP+l 2577 f F (N. n C + N J n J A + l 2631 E n 3 6 7 0 K=MSTZX.LE.KSTAP] G O T C 160 2629 35QC ~ ~ T ~ P ( ~ S ~ ~ P ) = Q ( ~ ~ ~ .ID) 2590 'rPITE (6. ~ A I G O T P 3560 8601 on ? a 9 0 K = N .NSTA 2632 IF(~J+JXT!~P.rzr+1 2597 IFINSTX.l ~ + i assr n r 5fco 1=1.~rP~lllntrCO~r~(~PAS~) ::ThPHUYTMD*f ( IPASDj Dry 3420 K J l r ' l S T A 2583 :bn 3nio r=i1t. p ) 2626 ct?TAP=t~QTAr+l 2627 I~TAP=ISTP~+: 2628 xi ~ISTAP. ? T X X . ( A ~ C I I ~ ) IS^($ . ).!!flTAP) 6 0 TC 3 5 3 0 2619 PEA^ (IOTAPI 2620 I.A n ( f ~ T a T l I P .ElY . 2595 SOVtIrK)=O. a 2579 ~~'JSTA)~AI.ISTA(K)) G U T O 3350 ?572 33hC t : r A n ( 1 3 T A t ) I p . ( A ~ ( I I K ) S S ~ ~ I .0) f J v v E v ( K ) = Q 3 T A P( I S T A P ] 2570 3 3 4 0 c t . ( H E T A ~ . S K E ~ C I I K ) I ~ ~ ( J [. K ) . 8 h ) 2573 'rusYA).Y]/ANLQG 2635 S ~ V ~ I ~ K ) + ( ( ~ ~ ~ ( ~ .0) G U TO 3460 2598 D G 4450 K = 1 . ESTA 2602 C R 4 N D O ~ COHPOhEhT 2503 TFPP=O. 1 * 1 2 + 1 2623 I?TAPZI~TAP-USTA+~!STX 2624 ~n T s a o K=KSTYI.FJTA 252s ~ r ~ ~ ~ ~ ( ~ 9 ~ ( ~~ (~ ~ ) ~ f ~ c ) ~~ n~ =( t ) ~ oi t. K ) .LE.I) G O TO 3360 2569 ?39C u ~ A n ( Y f l T ' h p ) XTEYPI ( O ( P t K ) 1H=21 I T P I 2570 L~~TAPZLOTAP+I esti IF[IlEtiP.3430) N 2591 343C F G R n A T 1 2 7 ~q E h E R A T E O F L C U S FOR P F ~ ~ O D ~ S ~ ) 2992000 I F ~ S P ~ S ~ ~IG WT R~I TJE.( b 1 2 k 9 0 1 I P A 3 3 2593 3 4 4 C q f l 3510 J = J n .~E.'!f APt!-OtAP+f 2621 !:n T O 3 5 2 0 2622 3536 I T P = N . STP=YJ*it+l 2567 Sn 3 3 7 0 K = I . F J T X 2568 :F~IPIQJ.K) 2608 o n saac L=I. 2586 - 3 t 4 l ~C ~ N T ~ N U E 2587 342C C C ~ T I N L I C 2588 XF(N. K ] + T E M P * T E ~ P 261 2 C(P.l JXTHPXJX 2582 .ALCFTClrK1. K ) 2630 S55C A V l .G7.K)~Z=~~!.K)=TEHP 2613 'rsEv (X)=TEMP 2614 3aqc Gt'LTINLjE 2615 35nC CObTINUE 2616 75f c C n h ~ ~ y u E 2617 fF(YPhSS.~) 2580 CQ * * * * * * ~ E M E Q ~ TCEU R f i E L A l E D STANDARD D E V I A T E * * * * * 9 r e r 2581 30nC XF (TPASS. K ~ . s K E w ( I ~ ~ t KI ) ~o ( I .GT.z a ~ a CVG(IIK)~~. 2604 il? 3470 L = l t h 2h05 TF!-P=~EvP+~NGEKCIXX) 26C6 34 7 C TFL4P=TEYu-t?tJ(:Eh ( I r X ) 2607 T E P ~ = T E H P * J A L C F T(1.ErJ. ? ! 9 T X 2599 3o5C :lPGEV ( K ) = P ( N a K I i?bdO 346C i F I H : L E .CF~(T.CT.K)=A~C[I~K)+TE~P 261 1 SDv[f ~ K ) t S i ~ V ( Z . K ) .O) W91TE(br2h60) ( H O ( I ) F ~ = ~ @ ~ ~ ) 2633 • an ' 5 6 0 I=!.VSTA 2609 3nRO T F ~ ~ P = T E ' P + $ E T(~I I K I L l *apiiEv(~) 2610 ~vC~I. I ( ) ~ * Z * ~ ~ 2L6 3O6 ~ ) ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ ) * .LF. N J 2594 -1=12*t ~ .

GT.tiP2n.LT. L ~ f ? 4 9 3 ~ 3b9C C n h T I N U e 269'3 37oC CffkTZNUE 2696 371@ CnKTTNUE 2697 3 7 2 0 IF(N.Ll f P W 368C D t P 8 K ) o n ( # . bmYO 14. 2691 0 F 3 6 8 0 LSI:ITP 2692 ITEt4P1KJTAC(K~. KOXY+XgTA 26@9 I T P = Y ~ T ~ c (X KPXA ~ S ~ ~ !itH. 5 4 .AND.OIGB TO 3aPd 2699 Cs * * r r M A % AND W I N GEhERATED FLOnS * r * * * * * r * * * * r r 2700 Xc c J x .8 0 15 2787 Dt7 3 7 4 0 ~flrls 2769 .O.NJeLTeUY~XC)GO TO 150 2703 I TR I 4 3 = 0 27C3 3730 I ~ P = N ~ T A + F ~ C O H ~ 2703 00 3800 K ~ N S ? X X . ~ E . r ) + ~ ( n .J) 50 T o 5250 2498 IF(NYWXG.KjxO. ~ T P t?Ob C MAX CALEkDAP M C 1m12r HA7 Ha 13.LE. O l G f j 10 3870 2701 C SKIP H A X H I N IF E E h A I N I N G YEAR3 I N s U F ~ I C I E N T 2702 IF(JX. I I E ~ P ~ ~ C 3 t ~ C ~ K X .

C THf' = 60w8. Y ) ~ T Y P IF(U.j 1EKaaO. L T .B~~)I~TA(K) t ( x O ( ~ ) t I = l . E P e O s b Y O * I P A S ~ e L ~ s A P A 6 3 ) GO T O 3310 I F ( T P ~ Q S . ~ "i=o rr: 1 !F(ITRNS. I o D13. K ) 4VGO (K)=AVGO (Yl+TMPA l4O=NQ+l IF(TMPA. 3 A 2 ~ ) N .GTeSI (3-1) * H x R C S ~ ~ ~ + I 3 7 9 0 J s l rt4J Dn 3 7 8 0 r E l . ~ 4 0 ~ 1 9 ~ h (( I Ki f )f 1r ) * 1 = l t I 5 ) 1 ITEHP 3840 Cq':rINUE k~IlElhrASO1 J P I ~ E ( ~ . ~ ? I Q ( ~ ~ #I §X+ ~I O < i ! f 4 t ~ai'1iPb ) THP=THp+rHPA TEPP=TEHp+THpA I F ( r .KI~S~~CI~~)=T~PA I F [ T H P A .$VGQ /TEtiP 3.~r. T E Y P a 5 4 " ~V O~L U M E l Tt+pA n lln.15 3850 1 ~ l t ) ~ ~ ~ f i ( I + l ~ t K ) + .#) IF(TMP. OF.S r n 3030 1a1. ~ k o 1 ~ ~ 1 5 . A v G (K)lO.~H~(~~~X)~SI~F(I~~K)=TH~~ I F [ T M P & ~ L T .l C~ 3 6 1 0 FnFiHA? ( 1 2 7 ~ ~ ~ A X I M U M V a L U C E s F O R P E ~ . 125H YEAR3 OF S Y h f T t r E T I C F L P b 3 ) ~ 4 o I t E ( h . l S ) 3860 C f q T I N U E C T R A N S F E E P P C K T O RECQtvSTITUTED fLOWS IF(TTQNS.K)=TEMP tfl T n 3730 3 7 6 0 SN? 1 1 Q ' K ) n T M P 3770 S M 9 t 1 S r K f = T E r $ P 3780 C l l N T T N U E 379C CDVTIHUE C AVEPACE M0NTWI.LE. 5 N!?ITE(~. G T . K ) ] ~ W Q (30. L ~ . S ~ Q ( ~ O . f ( N .~)=~~np I F ( T E ~ P .Y FLOW TEYPZXQ AVGO (K)=. 1 3 .12) o f l 3860 K = N S T Y : ~ XTP D f l 3850 fx1. L T s 8 ) G 0 TO 3760 Tl4P:TPP=ntH-6.15 3 8 3 ~I ~ ( ~ ) = S H Q ( I I K ) + .str~(i~.CT.3n .1=1. t a Ir=I+zs v=c+1 Tt4Plar3 I H . t o .S~.10) I F t I T R N S . ~ ) ! d ~ ~ T E ( 6 .GT. ~ l ~ R I Y E ~ b t 3 ~ 1t11N. N ~ 3 P 2 C F 0 a P h T (/27H M A X I M U M V O L L ! 4 t S FCR p E p I 0 3 . ) ~ I X ~ K ) ) . S (~?QX t Y ) = T H P A ~~(TWPA. L E .K~]s~ccis. L T D ~ H O ~ ~ ~ ).GT~SU~CI. ThtP=O. 3 ~ O F t I 4 .O)G~ TD 292C 387C ?'. ~ P ~ ~ S ) GD TC 3 3 4 0 . I T ? I~Eu?x~vti3[K)+.LT. J I + ~ . R ! O )(HE (I).S~~(L~~K))S~O(~~IK~~TMP I F ( ? M P .~) G O TO 3900 IpdU$8fPAs3+I .Sb)SO T O 3770 ~E"P=TEUP-O~Y'SU~U) ~F(r~~~. 1 ! 4 t H YEARS OF R E C D f O E D 4 h D REcQ~STITUTED FLOWS) IF ( T T R V 3 a L E .900 C r l U T I N ~ E YPITE [5. % l O ) ( n O ( 1 ) rt11112) I TF=h'STA+NCflrril i)n 3840 KsNSTXX.I = NYWXG ~n t n 3490 3BRO P J 3 K Y R 3050 IF(YPAS~. SKMI C C ) I ~ .

~ ~ 1017 Dn 8 0 K=2. a 1004 hVARSNrNDPr!.25 bC CRIUTl.X) 1023 XF(J.E$FRAL U S ~ G EIS 43 FCLI. 1 1 ) 1092 OnUBLE PiJEC331CN R.KI S3 T O bC 1024 RIK. ~ ~ / ~ ~ l . G ~ .BT.n y o 5300 2786 END ?73? s ~ ~ e n a \ ~ r zcx ~ e n CuR Y~) f 001 D T ~ E N S I O N~ f l b i i ~ f l n .rx 1041 r<O. ~ ~ 1029 TEMPZDA~.IYI Gn TO 10 1015 XV=EARG 1 0 16 .PC~. ) ~ J = ~ Y R G ?784 !JYRG=NYRG-xJ 2785 r.NY&~~ 1036 !?o106 1 n 2 t N l r f D P 1037 J=MYbRaI 1038 IY=t-1 1039 -3 ( J ) = R ( J . ~ V A A 1016 ~ ? ~ l . G T .FI~~(K~K]) 1030 I F ( T F M P .**A) * * * a 1011 C hHERE 6 % N ~ ' t n E 2 OF 8 1 1 9 J h THE I N T E G E R U O R D 1012 C 1013 0AYA IAR~/759a%t/ 1014 IF(IARG. 1005 o n an J = ~ .N z y g P .l~ 1012 gTK~CrS(l)*flC1) 1913 YEtlJRH 1014 c r t * * * c PE91VEU M A T R I X * * * * s * * * * * * 4 r r a 1015 3c on a0 K S Z . . IPAS3al 2781 C e!l re NE% J U ? 2782 S Y O C IFCNYRGaLE.l)SO T O 3C 1011 +tl)=u(i.~jm~[J~Ll*R(L. K ) 1034 C r * * r * t B ~ C ~ S @ L U T I O h s * * h r * a * r * * * * a e * * 1 . ~ ) 1043 1 0 ~C ~ ~ ~ ~ I V U E 10411 O. ~ ~ ( 1 0 .J)=R(-J. S X N O P to20 on 50 Z = t r I T n iaat L=K*r 11 0 2 2 SC u(JsK)=R(J. : ~ Y ~ .H.NI84cP 1018 ITf'=Kol 1019 nn 6 0 J = X .RX 1063 cnvrcnu orn:~c.81~3 1004 c a=auc~~(~xi 100s C 5 X 9HPULD S E P h I P I A L I Z E C TI? ZEFO I R TPE B Q C G K A ~ 1006 C I s a s CAN P f & + f Y L A F C E I Ctj0 I Y T E G E S 1007 C C P h 4 T A Y f S !iUST RE C O ' f F V T E D B Y F O L L C .4lJE 1024 Qf7 7 0 I = l t l T P 1027 LZX-1 t028 7C ~ I ~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ R ) = ? ( ~ .HHC:I).g 1032 RETUkN 1033 P C -? C X I N V ~ R ) = R ( K . ~ V A R ) ~ 2 ~ L I h V A 4 1 * ~ f K . o Q O O ~ ~ )G O f G P O 3031 DrRfJC=l. 1045 0 0 110 J = l i t J T U G P 10a6 1t i 0 r s 3 c = o r ~ n c +( aJ I * ~ X ( J .EO. N V A Q iooe !C ~ ~ J I K ) ~ R % ( J ~ x ) iOC9 2 C CnhTINUE 1010 IF[VINDP. E ~ V A ~ ) 1047 qETUPN f 048 Exo IL C49 FtlrCTTON R R G E Y [ I Y ) 1001 C ~ A N D ~NuHSEa M S U ~ ~ U U P I FOR ~ E @ i N A Q Y MACHI'JE A iOC2 C f i ~ h F ~ b ~IINIFCRV E 9 Y A N O O P ~ P H ~ E R1t1S rh& ShTtRVAb 0 f ~ l I003 C '. N I N D P 1006 a(JIa0.2)~s(l.KI/K(XFX~ 10. K ~ = f ? ~ f . ? l V A R ) 10 4 0 0~ 91) La!. 1007 O ~ Y 10 K = I .EQ.I h G EQUPTIGNS 1038 C x t * * ICO~JI=C~**~CR~~]/Z))+~ * * * * 1509 C a t 1 * :c~?NE=C~**R)-~ * * * a 1010 C t * r r FCD~J~=~. % V A R ) / R ( # . i i ) .J4C 1042 90 c r J ~ = 8 ( J ~ ~ l l ( K l u R ( J .9) G O 79 1 3 0 2783 IF C ~ J . k * a ~ ? ~ 3 5 Q~~TNOP')=R[~~~EP.

0) XY=IY+ICOh2+l f4klr. I V P ~ X ttrul=lS777219 1c r V = T Y * ? C G k l ICf~2n2R1u74q7b710655 IF(Iv.LT.3552713678E-l4 RNGF?~:RHGE:~*FCONS 4FilJRN END .EtJ=IV FC0~33.

.

IANAL Indicator. 1. compares sum of morrthly values of upstream stations with damstresum s t a t i o n and adjusts i f value is less than sum and that s t a t i o n ' s value has been estimated or generatedp dimension f o r 10. dimensioned for 5. I f p o s i t i v e . each pass consisting of a new group of stations which can be correlated with specified stations i n previous passes.B (C-l) djunensioned for 10. Second specification card. Number of tandem situations. . I f p o s i t i v e . Adjusts standard deviation of a dependent station in tandem w i t h an independent s t a t i o n t o prevent frequency curves from crossing.- CARD VARIABU A Three t i t l e cards. positive value c a l l s f o r w ~ i t i n gstat- i s t i c s on Tape ?. Ntrmber of consecutive passes.iest yeax of record at any station. NCSTY Number of consistency t e s t s . Total number of years of hypothetical flows t o be generated. and minimum flows. dimensioned f o r 100. MSTA + MC0M. dimensioned f o r 2. f i r s t must have A i n column 1. lMuliber of combinstions of stations. IYRA Ear3. . F i r s t specification card. Indicator. . t h e t o l t d s of which a r e used t o obtain m i . not required if flow data are supplied. positive value c a l l s f o r writing recorded and seconstituted flows and generated flows on Tape 7. If p o s i t i v e . dimensioned for 10. IMNTH Calendar month number of f i r s t month of water per. Number of years in each p e r i d of generated flows which maximum and minimum values a r e t o be obtained. positive W u e c a l l s f o r s t a t i s t i c a l analysis routines. provide G card. 2. dimensioned f o r 100. lBumber of years i n each period of recorded and r e z constituted flows f o r which m i m u m and minimum values are t o be obtained. 3. Indicator. 3. provide F card. provide D and E cards. Number of stations at which flows are t o be genemted.

co- . . 2. WC8MB (c-1 ) sets of D and E cards. 18CQMB (c-1) s e t s of B and E cards. G Identification of consistency test. blaraak card (I cslsd). cards in m y O&P. Pdiunber of projections of Artme flews frcan present cQndftions . of eLCh w o j e ~ t i a . Calendar month of start of each projection. 1. Isst year of each projection. Stat ion number of downstream slation. EESPY ((2-3) cards. Y e a r number. Combin. Idexitif ication of coerbation. . Station number 2. -. + 2 c a l l s f o r com- puting generalizer3 s t a t i s t i c s *an float data and using . usually 0. IH8dependent station number. for gener%%ion. Cols 5-8. Seune w D-1. c o r ~ s t ~ o s z-espxtfve ftems %a D-2. Cols 2-4. dimensioned for 10. . Humber of upstream stations. number of recorded and reconstituted years plus number of projected years diillemionea f m 100. onnit if I M U (B-3) is not positive. 1SY. -. . Station number of upstream s t a t i o n (IEMC d u e s ).Y . IsTX . Coefficient sf flaw used f o r adding. Dependent station number. Yew of 8. . Indicator. Flow data. Station number (K~TAc values ) . . dimensioned f o r 10. -. coef ficients. 1. ldueiber of statdons i n t h i s cambination. + 1 c a l l s for r e generalized ~ ~ stat- i s t i c s and usiw f o r generation. follow flow data cards by 1.

Number of s t a t i o n s from previous passes which a r e t o be used w i t h t h e a d d i t i o n a l d a t a i n current pass as a means of maintaining c o n s i s t e n t flows between gmups of s t a t i o n s .E. Adjusts standard deviation of a dependent station in tandem with an independent station to prevent frequency curves from crossing.- CARD VARIABLE 3. provide F card. omit c a r d f o r t h a t yeax. 15-20. omit i f IANAL (B-3) i s p o s i t i v e (NSTAcards). H. t o NSTA (3-10) on successive cards. ISTA . the totals of - which are used to obtain maximum and minimum flows. only f i r s t card i s used. omit i f IAN& (B-3) i s not p o s i t i v e . N m . and G. RA(I. dimension for 10.999. ISTA(L) . Number of tandem situations. 3. 5. . Note: Flow d a t a f o r current pass supplied a s described for H card and follow data with a blank card (I card).Lx) . EXHIBIT 7 . If record f o r e n t i r e year i s missing. ISTA(K) . I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of s t a t i o n s i n prevLous passes t o be used i n c u r r e n t pass. provide G card. . S t a t i o n number of s t a t i o n i n a previous pass which is t o be used i n current pass (NSTX values). number of s t a t i o n s from previous passes plus number of new s t a t i o n s dimensioned f o r 10. 4. If positive. NTNDM . 2. 1. Number of combinations of stations.20. I f IGNRL (c-4) = 1. Card blank a f t e r Col 1 t o i n d i c a t e end of flow data. Correlation coefficients f o r successive months between flows a t f i r s t s t a t i o n and preceding-month flows a t s t a t i o n s from 1 t o NSTA (3-1. Units shou1.d be selected s o generated flows w i l l not exceed 999. and NCSTY app1. NCOMB . Preceding-month c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r f i r s t s t a t i o n . compares sum of monthly values of upstream stations with downstream station and adjusts if value is less than sum and that station's value has been estimated or generated. 1. and I cards (also D. Number of s t a t i o n from 1. The variables NCOMB. Number of f i r s t s t a t i o n . NTNDM. e t c .K. provide D and E cards. 2. 15-. If positive. dimensioned for 2. if necessary) when NPASS greater than 1.y to the current pass only.e t c . Cols 9-14. dimensioned for 10.F. NCSTY Number of consistency tests. Cols 5-8. Must be i n same order as s t a t i o n s f i r s t appear. I f I'GNRL (c-4) = 1. supply NPASS-1 s e t s of J.0) on separate cards. If positive. Cols 9-14. only general- ized c o e f f i c i e n t ( i n cols 9-14) i s given. Cols 2-4. Use -1 f o r missing record. Flow i n desired u n i t s . 3. supply only if PASS (B-7) i s g r e a t e r than 1.

3. Receding-month c o r r e l a t i o n coefficients f o r remaining s t a t i o n s . . e t c . 15-20. AW(K) - months ) . Station number f o r N3TA (B-10) s t a t i o n s on successive cards i n same order as supplied by L cards (I*-1). (12 items). Correlation c o e f f i c i e n t f o r each successive calendar month between f l a r s at s t a t i o n K and flows i n preceding month at s t a t i o n I. o r . Paired with L card. 4. 3.d. RA(I. Cols 15-20. Correlation c o e f f i c i e n t f o r each successive calender month between flaws at stat i o n K and concurrent flows a t s t a t i o n L (12 items).- CARD VrnI&P Current-month correlation coefficients. Generalized frequency s-Latistics. 3 1. Number of s t a t i o n . Cols 5-8.X. Average mean logarithm f o r dry season ( 3 months ). only cesd with L = K is used. If IGNaL (c-4) = 1. Same s t a t i o n number as on corresponding L card (L-1). RA(I . If IGNRL (c-4) = I.y generalized c o e f f i c i e n t i n Cols 9-14 is given. omit i f WAL (13-3) i s positive.K. s t a t i o n s from L = 1 t o NSTA (B-10) . ISTA(K) . *' Sets of L and M caf. . ~f IGNRT. Average standard deviation f o r t h e 12 months. 2. ISTA(L) .LX) . ISPA(K) . 2. Average mean logarithm f o r wet season (3 3. Cols 9-14. 2. Cols 5-8. 15-20. SDAV(K) . 1. Cols 2-4. omit i f IAPIIAL (B-3) is p o s i t i v e or IGNaL (c-4) does not equal 1. Mrmber of s t a t i o n . I~A(L) . p o g r e s s i n g from K = 2 through NSTA (B-10) s t a t i o n s on d i f f e r e n t s e t s of L and M cards. Cols 21-26. (c-4) = 1. ISTA(K) . AVMX(K) . Number of s t a t i o n .L) . omit i f IANAL (B-3) i s positive. progressing on d i f f e r e n t cards through all s t a t i o n s from L = 1 t o X-1. only generalized c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o l s 9-14 is given. 1.. Cols 2-4. Cols 9-14. (NSTA-1)pairs of L and M cards.s are required f o r each s t a t i ~ nf ~ o mK = 2 t~ NETA. progressing i n same order on d i f f e r e n t cards through all. Cols 2-8. etc. Cols 9-14.

15-20. Five blank cards with A in Col 1 of f i r s t should follow last job. 1. MOMN(K) . . Cols 9-14. 15-20. ete. Calendar number of last month of wet season. Sameas (M-1). Standard devl. SLEE as (M-1).K) . AV(I. MOMX(K) . Standard deviations f o r suc- ces sive calendar months. 2. Cols 9-14. 1. Mean logarithms f o r successive calendar months . omit 1.ents. IBA(K) . .4 equals ) 1. SKEEI(I. 2. (c-4) equals 1. 6. Skew c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r suc- cessive calendar months. Calendar number of last month of dry season. 15-20. IS~A(K) .K) . Cols 9-14.K) . Sameas (M-1). Note: Cards K through R a r e not required i f cards H and I a r e supplied. Cols 9-14. m e a s (M-1). 5. Flow increments. omit i f IAElL (B-3) i s p o s i t i v e o r IGNRL (C-4 ) equals 1. etc.f L A N U (B-3) i s positive o r IGNRL ( ~ . etc.K) . ISFA(K) .ANAL (B-3) i s p o s i t i v e o r IGNRh. e t c .ations. omit i f I. Skew coefficl. I ~ A ( K ) . S(I. B&(I... 2. 1. 15-20. omit if IANAL (B-3) i s positive o r IGNRL (c-4) equals 1. Flow increments f o r successive calendar months.. 1. 2. Mean logarithms. Cards K through R are as punched by computer when IPCHS i s positive.

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(1) Supply only if ZUTAL ( ~ 3 i) s p s i t f v e station-year of data before supplying I cad. %peat H card for each .motes : .

SlBMMY OF REQUIRED CARDS ContPnued '723-X6-L234O .