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The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics www.td.com/economics August 6, 2010
The Weekly Bottom Line
TD Economics
www.td.com/economics
August 6, 2010

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

• The U.S. economy scrapped 131K non-farm jobs in July.

• If it continues to create jobs at the speed it has showed since the labor market bottomed in December 2009, it would take roughly seven years to fully absorb the 8.4 million jobs lost to the recession.

• A research paper written by Federal Reserve FOMC member James Bullard reignited the debate on the prospects of further Quantitative Easing.

• Following six months of strong gains, Canadian employment fell by 9,300 in July, and the unemployment rate inched up to 8.0%, from 7.9% in the prior month. The majority of the jobs lost were in full-time positions (-139,000) where almost half the decline was in education services.

• Canadian Building permits rose to 212,000 units in June, up from 208,500 units in May. Despite the slight uptick, building permits are below levels seen at the end of 2009, indicating a continued drop in construction activity.

• This week we got a preview into July’s existing home sales for major Canadian markets – where sales fell well below the record levels from a year ago.

THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS

 
   

Week

52-Week

52-Week

Current*

Ago

High

Low

Stock Market Indexes

 

S&P 500

1110

1102

1217

980

S&P/TSX Comp.

11752

11713

12281

10532

DAX

6260

6148

6334

5202

FTSE 100

5332

5258

5825

4645

Nikkei

9642

9537

11339

9082

Fixed Income Yields

 

U.S. 10-yr Treasury Canada 10-yr Bond Germany 10-yr Bund UK 10-yr Gilt Japan 10-yr Bond

2.82

2.91

3.99

2.82

3.07

3.12

3.72

3.07

2.52

2.67

3.51

2.51

3.22

3.33

4.23

3.22

1.06

1.07

1.48

1.01

Foreign Exchange Cross Rates

 

C$ (USD per CAD) Euro (USD per EUR) Pound (USD per GBP) Yen (JPY per USD)

0.97

0.97

1.00

0.90

1.33

1.31

1.51

1.19

1.60

1.57

1.68

1.43

85.3

86.5

97.6

85.3

Commodity Spot Prices**

Crude Oil ($US/bbl) Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) Copper ($US/met. tonne) Gold ($US/troy oz.)

81.3

79.0

86.8

65.7

4.84

4.81

7.51

1.88

7371.0

7273.5

7960.3

5857.8

1205.7

1181.0

1256.8

934.6

*as of 11am on Friday, **Oil-WTI, Cushing, Nat. Gas-Henry Hub, LA (Thursday close price), Copper-LME Grade A, Gold-London Gold Bullion; Source: Bloomberg

U.S. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE % of disposable income 16 14 12 10 8 6 4
U.S. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE
% of disposable income
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
GLOBAL OFFICIAL POLICY RATE TARGETS
Current Target
Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate)
Bank of Canada (Overnight Rate)
European Central Bank (Refi Rate)
Bank of England (Repo Rate)
Bank of Japan (Overnight Rate)
0 - 0.25%
0.75%
1.00%
0.50%
0.10%
Source: Central Banks, Haver Analytics
The Weekly Bottom Line August 6, 2010 TD Economics www.td.com/economics 2 UNITED STATES – JOBS

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August 6, 2010

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2

UNITED STATES – JOBS ARE EASING, SO MIGHT THE FED

It was all about jobs and QE this week; not Her Majesty the Queen of England, if you were wondering, but rather Quantitative Easing –the practice of a central bank buying debt securities to boost money supply. We learned today that the US economy scrapped 131K non-farm jobs in July. Most of the decline stemmed from the departure of 143K U.S. census workers. Private sector jobs added 71K on the month, below market expectations. June private sector

net hiring was revised significantly downward. The most discouraging aspect of the report is that it confirms, once again, that improvements in the job market will materialize very slowly. If the U.S. economy continues to create jobs

at the speed it has showed since the labor market bottomed

in December 2009, it would take roughly seven years to

fully absorb the 8.4 million jobs lost to the recession. This

is way too slow for an economy that needs private demand

to fill the void that fading fiscal stimulus will generate in the coming quarters. More so in light of the latest personal income and spending data, which shows U.S. households continue to increase their savings rate. On the quantitative easing front, a research paper written by Federal Reserve FOMC member James Bullard published last week reignited the debate on the prospects of further QE

within the very limited Fed’s realm of policy options. The paper argues that, in the event of a further decline in infla- tion (which could be triggered by another shock or simply by a more pronounced slowdown in economic growth, or

a combination of both), the Fed should resort to a second

round of QE. The current stance of policy might prove inadequate and runs the risk of the economy experiencing Japanese-style deflation. Bullard’s paper and the repercussion it had on the market will very likely force the discussion about QE at the FOMC meeting scheduled for next week. In recent meetings, some members have voiced their concern regarding the balance of costs and benefits of such a policy tool. Buying troubled assets was a critical step to avoid a complete meltdown at the onset of the financial crisis. It provided a backstop for markets which had become completely dysfunctional. On the other hand, the effectiveness of a second round of QE to recharge the slowing recovery is far more controversial. Simply put, in an environment of historically low rates in which borrowers are unwilling to demand credit and lenders reluctant to extend loans, what can more liquidity accom- plish? Will it address the underlying lack of confidence that is putting a lid on credit flows?

U.S. JOBS

million people monthly change 600 140 Public Payroll -L- 400 Private Payroll -L- Total Payroll
million people
monthly change
600
140
Public Payroll -L-
400
Private Payroll -L-
Total Payroll -R-
138
200
136
0
134
-200
132
-400
130
-600
128
-800
126
-1,000
124
Jan-2008
Jul-2008
Jan-2009
Jul-2009
Jan-2010
Jul-2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

One could argue that, given the limited arsenal at the Fed’s disposal, it would be worth trying it. Yet again, there are potential costs to further QE, such as long lasting disrup- tions to the functioning of financial markets, perceptions of sovereign debt monetization, crowding-out of private buy- ers, and the associated reputational cost for the central bank. The discussion of this topic will likely reaffirm the perception of a growing divide within the FOMC, between those who stand firmly behind the need for continued mon- etary stimulus and those, such as Thomas Hoenig, who has been for some time advocating for a change in verbiage in the FOMC statements which would set the stage for a fu- ture fed funds rate hike. In all, a change in the policy rate remains off the table during this meeting, but as always, it will be very interesting to scan the after-meeting statement for shifts in language, and later on, to dive into the details of the minutes. We are getting to the point where it would be refreshing to observe at least a slight change in tone in communication that could hint to where the Fed’s collective mind is at on the issue of QE and the future rebalancing of monetary policy.

Martin Schwerdtfeger, Economist

416-982-2559

The Weekly Bottom Line August 6, 2010 TD Economics www.td.com/economics 3 CANADA – GLASS STILL

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CANADA – GLASS STILL FULL

After adding a whopping 308,000 jobs over the first

half of 2010, Canadian employment fell for the first time in 6 months in July. The decline comes on the heels of

a robust 11-month spell of labour market recovery. And,

despite July’s letdown, exactly one year after the bottom in Canadian employment, the Canadian economy had recouped 94% of the jobs lost during the 2008/09 recession. This is

a remarkable performance given the stage of the economic

recovery and when compared to the United States, where the jobs recovery has been anemic at best. However, the outlook for Canadian employment is not as rosy. While one month does not make a trend, the decelera- tion in trend employment gains may be the start of what is expected to be a pronounced moderation in job creation in the second half of this year. In particular, the largest sources of hiring in Canada – small businesses – are likely to scale back the rate at which they have been adding to payrolls. This week, the CFIB’s business outlook survey indicated that small business confidence slipped for a third straight month in July, reaching a 7-month low. Since the CFIB’s index is highly correlated with real GDP growth, these results suggest that after growth cooled to sub 3% in Q2 2010, small businesses are bracing for slower growth in Q3. In line with an anticipated cooling in domestic demand, the industries with the sharpest decline in confidence are those highly tied to domestic spending like retail, construction, hospitality, and professional services. Also tied to concerns over the U.S. recovery, manufacturing confidence weakened in the last three months. This is consistent with our view that the pace of real GDP growth will cool toward a range of 2.5-2.9% in the second half of this year. Indeed, it is widely believed that the major-

CFIB SMALL BUSINESS BAROMETER VS. REAL GDP Index, Level Q/Q% Change, Annualized 85 10 80
CFIB SMALL BUSINESS BAROMETER VS. REAL
GDP
Index, Level
Q/Q% Change, Annualized
85
10
80
8
75
6
70
4
65
2
60
0
55
-2
Est.
50
-4
Real GDP (RHS)
45
-6
CFIB Barometer (LHS)
40
-8
35
-10
30
-12
Feb-01
Sep-02
Mar-04
Sep-05
Mar-07
Sep-08
Mar-10
Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics, CFIB

CANADIAN LABOUR MARKET

Change in Employment, 000's Unemployment Rate (%) 150 9.0 100 8.0 50 7.0 0 6.0
Change in Employment, 000's
Unemployment Rate (%)
150
9.0
100
8.0
50
7.0
0
6.0
-50
Employment
5.0
-100
Unemployment Rate
-150
4.0
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics

ity of strength in domestic spending, housing in particular, was the result of households bringing forward purchases in the wake of record low interest rates and stimulative fiscal policy measures. Now that short-term interest rates are on the rise, and Canadian consumers appear fatigued, domes- tic spending is expected to be less supportive to economic growth in the second half of this year. This is evident in the housing market where construction output retraced six months of gains in June, and July existing home sales in major markets fell below the record pace of a year ago. This suggests that industries that have helped support the labour market recovery like retail, construction, finance, insurance and real estate, and professional services will likely lose steam in the coming quarters. The pace of eco- nomic expansion expected in the second half of this year is consistent with average monthly job creation in the range of 15,000-20,000 – about half the average job gains posted in the first half of this year. While we have seen an impressive decline in the unemployment rate from its peak value of 8.7% a year ago to its current rate of 8.0%, the future pace

of job creation may not be enough to support any further

declines in the unemployment rate in 2010. Indeed, there is

a risk that the combination of robust growth in the working-

age population, and re-entrance of discouraged workers

could put slight upward pressure on the unemployment rate in the coming months. Such upticks in the unemployment rate should not be viewed as a negative sign, but rather a reflection of better employment prospects. We expect the unemployment rate to hover in the range of 8.0-8.2% in the near future.

Diana Petramala, Economist

416-982-6420

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U.S.: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES FOMC Interest Rate Decision*

   

Release Date: August 10/10 Current Rate: 0.00% to 0.25% TD Forecast: 0.00% to 0.25% Consensus: 0.00% to 0.25%

   

FED FUNDS RATE

 

%

%

6

6

5

5 5

5

 

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board

 

There is more than the usual level of anticipation re- garding the FOMC meeting next week given the increasing chatter about a potential change in Fed communications, one that would reflect a growing transition away from tightening and toward how to accommodate more easing should that need arise. We do not think the Fed is prepared to deliver what some in the markets are hoping for, namely a more explicit statement regarding the reinvestment of maturing debt and possibly coupon payments into the balance sheet to prevent it from contracting. Instead, we expect the Fed to essentially maintain the status quo and consider what steps to take at a later date to see if the data reject or reinforce the need to provide more accommodation. Bernanke admitted in his Humphrey Hawkins testimony that the Fed had thought less about ways to engineer more accommodation than they had about how best to withdraw existing accommodation. That is changing, but that does not suggest any inclination to side more decisively with more accommodation, at least not yet. Growth is rolling over, but jobs are being created, the ISM’s are holding comfortably above the 50 threshold,

commodity prices have been rising since the last meeting, credit spreads narrowing, and market rates falling. Finan- cial conditions are, therefore, marginally more supportive to growth then they were at the last meeting. With the six month annual rate of core inflation rising at a 0.9% annual rate compared to 0.3% in May, evidence of a bottoming out in rental prices and a surge in capital investment spending, there is little reason to presume now is the time for a decisive change in Fed communications.

*Forecast by TDSI, Rates & Foreign Exchange Research. For further information, contact TDSecurities.EconomicswStrategy@ tdsecurities.com.

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U.S. CPI - July*

   

Release Date: August 13/10 June Result: core 0.2% M/M; all-items -0.1% M/M TD Forecast: core 0.0% M/M; all-items 0.2% M/M Consensus: core 0.1% M/M; all-items 0.2% M/M

 

U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)

 
 

Y/Y % Chg.

 

Y/Y % Chg.

4

3

All Items All Items Excluding Food and Energy
All Items
All Items Excluding Food and Energy

4

3

2

2

 

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

-3

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics / Haver Analytics

 

Inflation data for July is expected to provide a double edged sword with rising headline inflation offset by ongoing disinflation in core prices. Headline prices are forecast to rise by 0.2%, driven primarily by favorable seasonals in energy prices which are expected to rise 2.0% on the month. Core prices should remain broadly unchanged at 0.0% (0.03% rounded down), despite a third consecutive monthly gain in owners equivalent rent. Core commodities should post a modest decline on the month owing to weakness in apparel prices and a likely dip in used car prices which have surged by 16% y/y. Overall core commodities will be rising at only a 0.7% rate y/y, well off its recent peak of 3% y/y as recently as January of this year. In July, lodging prices which have jumped at an unsustainable 14% annual rate since January will offset the putative rise in rents from OER and rent of residence leaving shelter costs down for the first time in five

months. Core services, while modestly up on the month, will be rising at a new cycle low of 0.9% y/y. Overall, The composite change in core inflation will leave prices rising at the slowest rate in over 50 years keeping fears of ongo- ing price compression fresh among policy makers and bond investors alike.

U.S. Retail Sales - July*

Release Date: August 13/10 June Result: -0.5% M/M; ex-autos -0.1% M/M TD Forecast: 0.9% M/M; ex-autos 0.3% M/M Consensus: 0.4% M/M; ex-autos 0.3% M/M

Retail sales are expected to post their first gain in three months rising by 0.9% on a combination of strong auto sales and firmer gasoline sales. The 0.3% monthly gain in sales ex autos will be the best since April and follows two consecutive monthly declines. These core sales will get a bounce from gasoline prices, an easing in the pace of weak- ness in building materials, furniture sales, and a rebound in sporting goods. Nevertheless, the trend weakness in sales will remain in place with the level of sales activity still lower than it was earlier in the year. The six month annual rate will dip to -2.4% in July, well off the recent highs of 10.4% in the six months leading up to February. It does suggest that consumption will get a nice bounce out of the gates for Q3 providing a nice fillip for real consumption which will struggle to rise above 1.5% in Q3. The weak consumption and higher savings pattern will persist for the foreseeable

U.S. RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SALES

M/M % Chg. 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Total
M/M % Chg.
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Total
-2.5
-3.0
Excl. Automotive Dealers
-3.5
-4.0
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Haver Analytics.

future and without some evidence of stronger job growth, consumer spending will continue to retreat as a percent of GDP. After hitting a high of 71.5% of GDP in Q1 2009, that share is set to fall to 69% by the end of 2011.

*Forecast by TDSI, Rates & Foreign Exchange Research. For further information, contact TDSecurities.EconomicswStrategy@ tdsecurities.com.

The Weekly Bottom Line August 6, 2010 TD Economics www.td.com/economics 6 CANADA: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC

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CANADA: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES Canadian Housing Starts - July*

Release Date: August 10/10 June Result: 192.8K TD Forecast: 178K Consensus: 183K

CANADIAN HOUSING STARTS Thousands Thousands 225 100 Urban Multiples (right scale) 90 200 80 175
CANADIAN HOUSING STARTS
Thousands
Thousands
225
100
Urban Multiples
(right scale)
90
200
80
175
70
150
60
Total Starts
(left scale)
125
50
100
40
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09 Feb-10
Apr-10
Source: CMHC and Haver Analytics.

Looking further into the third quarter, the impact of the HST is forecast to take a bigger bite out housing construction, with a forecasted decline in the level of starts to 167K units.

The July release of housing starts will provide a first glimpse of the Canadian housing market in the post- harmonized sales tax (HST) era. Given the lag between construction and sales, the support to starts from builders looking to beat the tax is well in the rear view mirror. What we have seen since is a reflection of the headwinds that have arrested a once buoyant housing market. Over the last three months, starts have marked a steady decline, and are expected to have fallen further in July to an annualized level of 178K. Single unit starts are expected to hold onto their gains made in June following the outsized decline in May while the ever-volatile multiples component is forecast to fall further. The moderation in starts is consistent with the steady erosion in building permits over the last three months.

Canadian International Trade - June*

Release Date: August 11/10 May Result: -$0.5B TD Forecast: -$0.8B Consensus: N/A

Canada’s merchandise trade balance is expected to fall further into a deficit position in June. At a forecasted level of -$0.8B, this will be the largest deficit since September of last year. On a trade-weighted basis, the Canadian dollar was flat on the month, leaving fluctuations in demand as the main drivers of exports and imports. Part of the outsized increase in auto exports in May is expected to be reversed, which when combined with the observed weakness in shipments of US durable goods, is forecast to cause exports to fall by 3.0% M/M. Higher commodity prices should provide some support to exports. Meanwhile, the gradual deceleration in domestic demand is forecast to contribute to a modest 1.2% M/M fall in imports. After accounting for price changes, real exports and imports are forecast to rise, though as in months past, the net effect on economic activity remains ambiguous.

CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE TRADE Dollars, Billions 42 40 Exports Imports 38 36 34 32 30
CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE TRADE
Dollars, Billions
42
40
Exports
Imports
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.

Looking further into the future, if the recent run to parity in the CAD is sustained, the recent deterioration in the trade balance may become a familiar sight.

*Forecast by TDSI, Rates & Foreign Exchange Research. For further information, contact TDSecurities.EconomicswStrategy@ tdsecurities.com.

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August 6, 2010

 

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7

   

RECENT KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS: AUGUST 2-6, 2010

 

Release

 

Data for

       

Date

 

Economic Indicators

Period

Units

Current

Prior

 

United States

 

Aug 2

ISM Manufacturing ISM Prices Paid Construction Spending Personal Income Personal Spending PCE Deflator PCE Core Factory Orders Pending Home Sales ABC Consumer Confidence Domestic Vehicle Sales Total Vehicle Sales MBA Mortgage Applications Challenger Job Cuts ADP Employment Change ISM Non-Manf. Composite Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims ICSC Chain Store Sales Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Average Hourly Earning Average Weekly Hours Unemployment Rate Change in Manufacturing Consumer Credit

 

Jul

Index

55.5

56.2

 

Aug 2

Jul

Index

57.5

57.0

Aug 2

Jun

M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Index Millions Millions M/M % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Thousands Index Thousands Thousands Y/Y % Chg. Thousands M/M % Chg. Hours

 

0.1

-0.2

R

Aug 3

Jun

0.0

0.4

R

Aug 3

Jun

0.0

0.2

R

Aug 3

Jun

1.4

1.9

R

Aug 3

Jun

1.4

1.3

R

Aug 3

Jun

-1.2

-1.4

R

Aug 3

Jun

-2.6

-30.0

R

Aug 3

1-Aug

-50

-48

Aug 3

Jul

8.94

8.57

Aug 3

Jul

11.56

11.08

Aug 4

30-Jul

1.3

-4.4

Aug 4

Jul

-57.2

-47.1

Aug 4

Jul

42.0

13

Aug 4

Jul

54.3

53.8

Aug 5

31-Jul

479

457

R

Aug 5

24-Jul

4537

4565

R

Aug 5

Jul

2.8

3.0

Aug 6

Jul

-131

-125

R

Aug 6

Jul

0.2

-0.1

R

Aug 6

Jul

34.2

34.1

Aug 6

Jul

%

9.5

9.5

Aug 6

Jul

Thousands

36

9

R

Aug 6

Jun

USD, Blns

-9.1

 

Canada

Aug 5

Building Permits Net Change in Employment Unemployment Rate Ivey Purchaing Managers Index

 

Jun

M/M % Chg. Thousands

 

6.5

-10.8

R

Aug 6

Jul

-9.3

93.2

Aug 6

Jul

%

8.0

7.9

Aug 6

Jul

Index

54.0

58.9

 

International

Aug 1

JP

Official Reserve Assets TD Securities Inflation ANZ Commodity Price Vehicle Sales RBA Commodity Index PMI Manufacturing Monetary Base Retail Sales Building Approvals RBA Cash Target Halifax House Prices PMI Construction Euro-Zone PPI Trade Balance House Price Index PMI Services Euro-Zone Retail Sales Unemployment Rate New Car Registrations Factory Orders BoE Asset Purchase Target BoE Announces Rates ECB Announces Interest Rates Industrial Production

Jul

Yen, Blns Y/Y % Chg.

 

1063.5

1050.2

 

Aug 1

AU

Jul

2.8

3.6

Aug 1

NZ

Jul

M/M % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Index Y/Y % Chg. M/M % Chg. Y/Y % Chg.

-0.8

-1.2

R

Aug 2

JP

Jul

15.0

20.6

Aug 2

AU

Jul

51.0

43.0

R

Aug 2

UK

Jul

57.3

57.5

R

Aug 2

JP

Jul

6.1

3.6

Aug 2

AU

Jun

0.2

0.2

Aug 2

AU

Jun

13.20

26.6

R

Aug 3

AU

3-Aug

%

4.50

4.50

Aug 3

UK

Jul

M/M % Chg. Index M/M % Chg. AUD, Mlns Y/Y % Chg.

 

0.6

-0.6

Aug 3

UK

Jul

54.1

58.4

Aug 3

EU

Jun

0.3

0.3

Aug 3

AU

Jun

3539

1645

R

Aug 3

AU

Q2

18

20.0

R

Aug 4

UK

Jul

Index Y/Y % Chg.

53.1

54.4

Aug 4

EU

Jun

0.4

0.3

R

Aug 4

NZ

Q2

%

6.8

6.0

Aug 5

UK

Jul

Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg.

 

-13

10.8

Aug 5

GE

Jun

24.6

24.8

R

Aug 5

UK

Aug

GBP, Blns

200

200

Aug 5

UK

5-Aug

%

0.50

0.50

Aug 5

EU

5-Aug

%

1.00

1.00

Aug 6

GE

Jun

M/M % Chg.

-0.6

2.6

R

Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics

 
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8

 

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: AUGUST 9-13, 2010

 

Release

Time*

 

Economic Indicator/Event

Data for

Units

Consensus

Last Period

Date

 

Period

Forecast

 

United States

Aug 10

7:30

NFIB Small Business Optimism Nonfarm Productivity Unit Labor Costs Fed's Open Market Committee Meets on Interest Rates, Economy Wholesale Inventories IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism FOMC Rate Decision ABC Consumer Confidence MBA Mortgage Applications Trade Balance Monthly Budget Statement Import Price Index Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Consumer Price Index CPI Ex Food & Energy CPI Core Index SA Advance Retail Sales Retail Sales Less Autos Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas U. of Michigan Confidence Business Inventories

Jul

Index Q/Q % Chg. Q/Q % Chg.

--

89

Aug 10

8:30

Q2

0.2

2.8

Aug 10

8:30

Q2

1.8

-1.3

Aug 10

9:00

 

Aug 10

10:00

Jun

M/M % Chg. Index

0.5

0.5

Aug 10

10:00

Aug

--

44.7

Aug 10

14:15

10-Aug

%

0.25

0.25

Aug 10

17:00

8-Aug

Index M/M % Chg. USD, Blns USD, Blns M/M % Chg. Thousands Thousands Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. Index M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg. Index M/M % Chg.

--

-50

Aug 11

7:00

6-Aug

--

1.3

Aug 11

8:30

Jun

-42.7

-42.3

Aug 11

14:00

Jul

-168.5

-180.7

Aug 12

8:30

Jul

0.4

-1.3

Aug 12

8:30

7-Aug

--

479

Aug 12

8:30

31-Jul

--

4537

Aug 13

8:30

Jul

1.2

1.1

Aug 13

8:30

Jul

0.9

0.9

Aug 13

8:30

Jul

--

221.388

Aug 13

8:30

Jul

0.4

-0.5

Aug 13

8:30

Jul

0.3

-0.1

Aug 13

8:30

Jul

--

0.1

Aug 13

9:55

Aug

72.0

67.8

Aug 13

10:00

Jun

0.3

0.1

 

Canada

Aug 10

8:15

Housing Starts New Housing Price Index Int'l Merchandise Trade New Motor Vehicle Sales

Jul

Thousands M/M % Chg. CAD, Blns M/M % Chg.

183.0

192.8

Aug 10

8:30

Jun

0.2

0.3

Aug 11

8:30

Jun

--

-0.5

Aug 13

8:30

Jun

--

0.2

 

International

Aug 8

19:50

JP

Current Account Total Japan Money Stock M2 Adjusted Current Account Total Home Loans ANZ Job Advertisements BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook Trade Balance Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Sentix Investor Confidence NAB Business Conditions

Jun

Yen, Blns Y/Y % Chg. Yen, Blns M/M % Chg. M/M % Chg.

1310.6

1205.3

Aug 8

19:50

JP

Jul

2.9

2.9

Aug 8

19:50

JP

Jun

1447.0

904.8

Aug 8

21:30

AU

Jun

--

1.9

Aug 8

21:30

AU

Jul

--

2.7

Aug 9

0:00

JP

 

Aug 9

1:00

JP

Jul

Index

--

48.3

Aug 9

2:00

GE

Jun

Euros, Bln

--

9.7

Aug 9

2:30

FR

Jul

Index

--

100

Aug 9

4:30

EC

Aug

Index

--

-1.3

Aug 9

21:30

AU

Jul

Index

--

8.0

Aug 10

--

JP

BOJ Target Rate Machine Tool Orders Manufacturing Production Industrial Production Total Trade Balance Nationwide Consumer Confidence Westpac Cons. Confidence Index ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report Business NZ PMI Employment Change Unemployment Rate Consumer Confidence Households Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. Wda Retail Sales Gross Domestic Product Euro-Zone Trade Balance Euro-Zone GDP s.a.

10-Aug

%

0.1

0.1

Aug 10

2:00

JP

Jul

Y/Y % Chg.

--

143.8

Aug 10

2:45

FR

Jun

Y/Y % Chg. Y/Y % Chg. GBP, Mlns Index Index

--

7.5

Aug 10

2:45

FR

Jun

--

8.2

Aug 10

4:30

UK

Jun

-3500

-3817

Aug 10

19:01

UK

Jul

--

63

Aug 10

20:30

AU

Aug

--

113.1

Aug 11

4:30

UK

Jun

%

7.8

7.8

Aug 11

5:30

UK

Aug 11

18:30

NZ

Jul

Index

--

56.2

Aug 11

21:30

AU

Jul

Thousands

--

45.9

Aug 11

21:30

AU

Jul

%

--

5.1

Aug 12

1:00

JP

Jul

Index Y/Y % Chg. M/M % Chg. Q/Q % Chg. Euros, Bln Q/Q % Chg.

43.7

43.5

Aug 12

5:00

EC

Jun

--

9.4

Aug 12

18:45

NZ

Jun

0.5

0.4

Aug 13

2:45

FR

Q2

--

0.10

Aug 13

5:00

EU

Jun

--

-3.4

Aug 13

5:00

EU

Q2

--

0.2

* Eastern Standard Time; Shaded area represents actual figures; Sources: Bloomberg, TD Economics

 
The Weekly Bottom Line August 6, 2010 TD Economics www.td.com/economics 9 CONTACTS AT TD ECONOMICS

The Weekly Bottom Line

August 6, 2010

TD Economics

www.td.com/economics

9

CONTACTS AT TD ECONOMICS

CANADIAN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Derek Burleton, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:derek.burleton@td.com

Pascal Gauthier Senior Economist mailto:pascal.gauthier@td.com

Diana Petramala Economist, Macro mailto:diana.petramala@td.com

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Francis Fong Economist, Special Studies mailto:francis.fong@td.com

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U.S. & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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