You are on page 1of 3

PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

Malaysia Technical Research

RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

W e e kl y T e ch ni ca l V ie w p o int
9 August 2010

Commodities & Currencies

Weakness On The US Dollar Continues…

Chart Performance on Key Commodities:

Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (Crude)

Chart 1: Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Weekly

♦ Instead of a small retreat, the US Light Sweet Crude

Oil futures extended its run-ups last week, to a weekly
high of US$82.97, but it closed significantly off high at
US$80.70 on Friday on profit-taking activities.

♦ On the chart, it collected a “shooting star-like” candle,

suggesting yet another likelihood of a pullback this

♦ However, as in the previous week, we favour the fact

that the crude has surpassed the key resistance at
US$78 and the 40-week SMA near US$77.5.

♦ Therefore, selling, if any, should be milder this week,

unless it falls to below the 40-week SMA.

♦ Its longer-term uptrend remains intact due to the firm

support of the UTL near US$73 - 74.

Crude Palm Oil futures (CPO)

Chart 2: Crude Palm Oil Futures Weekly

♦ In line with our view, the crude palm oil futures (CPO)
continued its uptrend after struggling near the RM2,500
resistance-turn-support level for the past two weeks.

♦ The CPO gained a bullish candle and closed positively at

RM2,661 last week.

♦ Last week’s uptick has prompted the 10-week SMA to

tick higher, indicating that the near- to medium-term
outlook could turn bullish if it continues to rise.

♦ Firm support can be expected at between the 10-week

SMA of RM2,440 and RM2,500.

♦ The CPO should be testing the Jan high of RM2,726 near

the key resistance at RM2,760 soon.

♦ Upon the removal of RM2,760, its outlook will turn more

bullish, leading to a rechallenge of the RM3,000 –
RM3,300 region next.

Please read important disclosures at the end of this report.

A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively Page 1 of 3
available for download from
Chart Intepretations On Selective Currencies:

Chart 3: RM/US$ Weekly Ringgit (RM)/US$

♦ In line with our expectation, the RM/US$ pair broke

below the 3.16 Apr’s low level and continued its
downtrend to close negatively at 3.1456 last week.

♦ Technically, the pair registered a huge bearish candle,

highlighting a fresh bearish breakdown on the chart.

♦ In other words, the ringgit is poised to strengthen

further after removing the 3.16 important level.

♦ Given both the momentum indicators are still pointing

southward, the ringgit could head towards the 3.07
level against the US$ if the buying continues.

♦ On the chart, for the pair to head up again, it must

first retake the 3.16 support-turn-resistance level,
before it could rechallenge the 3.29 stronger chart
resistance and the 35-week SMA nearby.

Chart 4: JPY/US$ Weekly Japanese Yen (JPY)/US$

♦ After weeks of struggling near the key support level of

87, near the Downtrend Resistance Line (DRL), the
JPY/US$ pair finally breached below the DRL last week.

♦ It collected its seventh negative candle in the past nine

sessions, indicating the bearish short-term trend is
likely to persist.

♦ Although the stochastic oscillators have triggered a

marginal “buy” signal, indicating a potential rebound
underway, the weaker 14-week RSI has dampened the

♦ This means, if the yen sustains at below the DRL, it

will strengthen towards the 79.8 against the US$ in
the near term.

♦ Key chart resistance is now at 87.

Chart 5: EUR/US$ Weekly Euro Dollar (EUR)/US$

♦ The EUR/US$ pair continued to slide with its second

bearish candle on the chart last week, following a
“doji” candle recorded near 0.77 three weeks ago.

♦ The candlestick pattern, alongside with the poorer

momentum readings, suggest follow-through negative
momentum this week.

♦ We expect the EUR to strengthen further towards the

chart support region of 0.73 against the US dollar,
before staging a possible chart recovery.

♦ Technically, the pair must recapture the 0.77 level and

the 21-week SMA near 0.78 to break the current
uptrend on the EUR against the greenback.

Page 2 of 3
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Chart 6: US Dollar Index Weekly

♦ Despite a potential “eight-to-ten” candle count pattern

in the previous week, the US Dollar index (DXY)
continued to trend lower last week.

♦ In fact, the index registered another bearish candle on

the chart, its ninth in a row, and breached below the
key support level of 81.

♦ Plus the poor momentum readings, the index is poised

to stay weak in the weeks ahead, in our view.

♦ Although the continuous “eight-to-ten” candlestick

pattern suggests a chance for a potential rebound,
unless it can retake 81 in the near term, chances for
that to happen this week are extremely low.

♦ We expect a revisit to the support of 78 soon, if the US

dollar continues to lose its strength.


This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.

Page 3 of 3