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ScienceDirect

Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 281 286

Ahmad Derakhshana, Alireza Khademib, Shahab Khademib, Noordin Mohd Yusofb,

Muhammad Hisyam Leec,*

a

Faculty of Built Environment, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia

b

Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia

c

Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +607 553 0264 ; fax: +607 554 7371. E-mail address: mhl@utm.my

Abstract

Demand modelling of energy and transport incorporate interconnected decision variables, which are either discrete or continuous. After forty

years, from McFadden multinomial logit model and incorporating it to Heckman endogenous simultaneous equation, there is an opportunity to

determine the parameters of interconnected decisions simultaneously. These models are bounded by the utility theory. Now these models have

matured, and their empirical aspects revealed. In this study, the pioneering works on discrete-continuous models that have been developed in

the field of energy and transportation have been reviewed with a view of proposing new development to these models. These models

theoretically are based on two approaches; McFadden indirect utility function and Gorman polar functional form of utility structures. In both

approaches, the models are estimated by maximum likelihood procedures.

2015

2014 The

The Authors.

Authors. Published

Published by

by Elsevier

Elsevier B.V.

B.V.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universitt Berlin.

(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universitt Berlin.

Keywords: Discrete-Continuous Model; Freight Transport Modeling; Energy Consumption Modeling; Indirect Utility; Switching Regression

1. Introduction subject at a time. These models are first developed in the field

of energy as well as transport. In all cases the choice of

Most of the decisions in real world are interconnected and discrete variable depends partly on the continuous variable

require to be taken sequentially or simultaneously. A sustain and vice-versa. Therefore the two choices should be mutually

decision-making system will concern to the other agents and consistently modeled. Discrete-continuous model has

demands. Sustainability considerations have forced the been applied in energy economics and transportation fields.

modeling system to search for multi-dimensional structures In order to model discrete-continuous dependent variable

which have the ability to incorporate more than one dependent systems two approaches have been proposed in the literature.

variable. The first is based on the indirect utility function which is

On consumer demand behavior, one may encounter a proposed by Dubin and McFadden [1], Hanemann [2],

qualitative or discrete variable in addition to traditional Heckman [3]. The second one is the utility-based (Gorman

continuous analysis of demand; and this is known as a structured utility function) and multiple discrete-continuous

discrete-continuous framework. For instance, a consumer extreme value (MDCEV) model which is proposed by Bhat

decides on which particular brand of car to buy as well as how and Sen [4]. Currently, development in discrete model

long to drive or use it; or a shipper decides on which mode of estimation provided an opportunity to simultaneously estimate

transport to be used while also concerns about the shipment a system of equations that include more than one discrete and

size. In terms of housing, a consumer decides whether to buy continuous dependent variables. Identification of new

or rent a house coincides with the size of house to live in; or a developments in this type of models is the main goal of this

consumer decides whether to buy an electric or gas heater as study. For this review only pioneering works have been

well as the amount of electricity usage in a month. These selected and their modeling procedure has been explained.

examples require modelers to be concern with more than one Subsequently future model development works are proposed.

2212-8271 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universitt Berlin.

doi:10.1016/j.procir.2014.07.053

282 Ahmad Derakhshan et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 281 286

2. General framework of discrete-continuous models: The foregoing notations are conditional to the chosen

Indirect utility function and Gorman polar forms commodity. Here, the discrete choice of which commodity to

be selected in a dual-product situation can be represented by a

Based on McFadden [5] a consumer indirect utility set of binary values = (1 , 2 ,,n) where; j=1 if xj>0 and

function gives the consumer maximal utility with respect to j=0 if xj=0. The discrete choice can be represented in terms

product price level and consumer income. It is a consumer of the conditional indirect utility function as:

preference based on market condition and income level.

Utility maximization problem (UMP) based on price and

income level is:

where; b is the attributes of xs commodity; y is income level;

s is decision-maker characteristics like as age, education, ;

where; V is observed part of utility function for product x; p is

is random component of utility with some joint density

price and I is income.

function.

From the above equation the maximum attainable level of

Here, for an econometrician or observer, the discrete

utility as a function of price and income is presented. If there

choice indices s are random variables with expected value

is a unique solution to the consumers UMP, thereafter

of E()j given by:

Marshallian demand function can simply be substituted into

the utility function as:

where; x*=x(p, I) and solves maxU(x) subject to budget where; Fvj is the derivative of Fv(.) with respect to its jth

constraint . Here indirect utility value V is argument.

determined based on the value of U and any rescaling of U The unconditional function and conditional function is

like density function of U is applicable and analogous to V. related to each other based on the value of which is 0 or

That is indirect because consumers usually care about what 1(selected x and its correspondent indirect utility is showed

they consume rather than the prices, or the demand for with mark). Then, this relation will be:

durables arises from the flow of services provided by durables

ownership, the utility associated with a consumer durable is

then best characterized as indirect [1]. The indirect utility

function unlike random utility function embodies an

optimization process where consumers through a bundle of

products try to maximize their utilities. This presumption let

the consumers to choose a bundle which is affordable and

maximizes their utilities. Definition of indirect utility function Econometricians have used these relations to draw

and how to optimize the decision will impose some properties distributions of xj and v. To do this, they introduced the sets

which any indirect utility will posses. Some of these Aj [| vj>= vi]. From f one can construct f| Aj as a

properties are: conditional joint density of 1, , m given that Aj then the

1. Homogeneous of degree zero in price and income: If probability density of xj , f| Aj (x) = prob[xj=x | Aj] is

prices and income multiplies by the same positive factor, obtainable by analogy from f| Aj by a change of variable

the budget constraint does not change, and therefore the based on Roys identification. Thus, the probability density of

choice and the utility level will not change; xj, fxj(x)=prob(xj=x) takes the following form:

for t>0.

2. Non-increasing in prices and non-decreasing in income.

3. Quasi-convex in prices and income: If we draw the level

curves of v(p,m) in the space of (p1,p2) all maximum Then, conditional indirect utility function and the joint

utility curves will be convex towards the origin. density of random components are milestones of the random

4. Continuous in prices and income. utility discrete-continuous models. If one specifies vj and f

5. Roys identity if V(p, I) is differentiable [5]: then, densities of fv and f| Aj can be constructed which are

used to form the discrete choice probabilities and the

conditional and unconditional densities of xjs [2].

A close consideration to the unconditional and conditional

function for the assumed binary model will let to value of x in

Roys identity is the main and useful property of indirect the following form based on Roys identity to be expressed:

utility function in the case of demand analysis.

Ahmad Derakhshan et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 281 286 283

inconsistent estimates of price and income elasticities [1].

This notation was an important base to test the exogeneity of

equation for energy. They consistently estimated appliance

The above form is a linear single equation switching choice model (discrete) with demand for electricity

regression model. This mutually and consistent mix discrete- (continuous) simultaneously, their model was based on the

continuous model is regarded as switching regression model presented model of Heckman [3], which was the first study of

and presented by Amemiya [6], Lee and Trost [7], Heckman dummy variables in simultaneous equations. Dubin and

[8] where this switching regression model can be written as: McFadden [1] developed a discrete-continuous model in

which the electricity consumption is determined with Roys

identity (the first model) and the probability of indirect utility

function included observed and unobserved components of

where; Z represents the exogenous variables; W is exogenous durable portfolio, unobserved component of decision-maker,

variables and a transformation of Z; , are coefficients to be income and cost of purchasing durables, and prices of

estimated, directly related to ; is random component; is electricity and alternative energy source represented the

a random components derived from . choice selection of discrete variable. Then, (in the second

Then, random utility discrete-continuous demand model model) they use of a parametric specification of UEC (Unit

can be estimated by any of the statistical instrument created Electricity Consumption), which means they define Roys

for switching regression estimation [2]. Based on Heckman identity in a way that it is partially differentiable and its

[8], if the decisions for discrete and continuous are not solution gives the conditional utility function. And, then, they

independent, then the model will suffer from selection bias. have defined a discrete choice probability by use of resulted

For many consumer choice cases, the error term of the choice conditional indirect utility function. Here we will discuss their

equation is correlated with the error term of the continuous second model.

equation. Here, a selection correction estimation method is They assumed the UEC equation is linear in income as

required. The correlation and dependency of error terms in bellow:

both discrete and continuous equations are the heart of

switching regression model.

Whenever the Gorman polar functional form is given by;

where; x is unit electricity consumption; is parameter of

income; y is income; r is price of durable appliance or its

rental charge annually; p1, p2 are price of electricity and other

where; a(.) and b(.) are concave and non-decreasing in p and energy source respectively; mi is linear parameters; is

homogenous in zero degree and mj is independent of price and stochastic terms with typical distribution based on discrete

income which is alternative-specific. Then, Uj is non- choice.

decreasing and convex in prices. Where preferences are A general solution to the indirect utility function which

associated with alternative-specific mj as observable part of yielding the above linear electricity demand function will be

utility function, ej is unobservable part and stochastic. Here, as follow:

the choice probability of jth alternative is the difference

between observable and unobservable terms:

where; is an increasing function in its first argument, then:

With relaxation of extreme value we can get:

and the demand for alternative energy source will satisfy:

Roys identity in the following continuous part of the

model will be attained; where; and

Linear parameters will be evaluated at the above indirect

utility function.

In another recognizable study Vaage [9] modeled a discrete

appliance choice as a multinomial logit model with appliance

attributes, decision-maker characteristics, income, housing

3. Discrete-continuous model in energy studies

unit characteristics as explanatory variables and then

continuous energy use modeled conditional to the appliance

If, as the theory would suggest, the demand for durables

choice for heating data of Norway. This study also used of

and their use are related decisions by the consumer,

Roys identity to continuous usage of energy. Davis [10]

specifications which ignore this fact will lead to biased and

284 Ahmad Derakhshan et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 281 286

tested whether efficient durable which cost less to operate will discrete choice for every vehicle type. To do it they assumed

lead to more use of them. He has followed Dubin and Rqi as a dichotomous variable with 1 for chosen vehicle type

McFadden [1] to find the demand for water and energy in and 0 for otherwise. With the substitution of right hand side of

household service production. He estimated the model with first equation into second, one can equivalently get bellow

data from a field trial to test the hypothesis; he found that just forms which is equivalent to multinomial discrete choice

some portion of gained efficiency will be used in more usage model:

of durable or less influence on demand for energy. The effect

of climate warms on energy usage and energy types have been

studied by Mansur et al. [11]. They found that people

switched from oil and gas to electricity and in near future the

electricity demand will increase highly however the energy

expenditure will change from heating houses to cooling them. Clearly, in the above equations the type of distribution of

They also used the Dubin and McFadden [1] methodology in vqi is depended on the distribution of qi. To have a

simultaneously determination of energy type and its demand. multinomial logit probability of vehicle choice type vqi have to

Same model used in vehicle choice and utilization, in the next be distributed based on logistic distribution and then qi have

section discrete-continuous model in vehicle choice and usage to be distributed based on type-I extreme value distribution.

will be discussed in the same form as Dubin and McFadden In the continuous part of their model Spissu et al. [12]

[1] and other approaches will be discussed thereafter. applied a classic log-linear regression model in which

logarithms of annual mileage of vehicle type i used as latent

4. Discrete-continuous model in transport studies dependent variable against observed household attributes and

disturbance term like as:

4.1. Vehicle choice and mileage use

Households based on their socio-economic standing, the

built environment, budget, fuel price, and environmental At the above equation m*qi is observed (in the form of mqi)

concerns decide which type of vehicle (discrete) to be chosen only if household q is observed to hold a vehicle of type i.

and how many miles (continuous) to be driven. In any After the construction of discrete and continuous parts of the

discrete-continuous model the challengeable part of the model model, they have to be linked. Spissu et al. [12] applied

is how to link together different dimensions of the single copula-based method to capture the extent of the dependency

decision about discrete choice of vehicle and continuous between vqi , qi terms. Copula method first transform vqi , qi

equation of usage. Up to now the only way of linking to into a uniform distribution by using of their inverse

variables in a discrete-continuous model is the correlation and cumulative distribution functions. Then, copula applied to

dependency of unobserved terms in both discrete and uniformly distribute inverse cumulative distributions into

continuous equations. In a joint model of vehicle type choice multivariate joint distributions. Here, if the marginal

(discrete variable) and utilization or usage (continuous) both distribution of vqi , qi be Fvi(.), Fi then the joint distribution

equations are linked together with an assumption about the of v, will be Fvi, i(.,.). This joint distribution can be

joint distribution of disturbance terms. expressed in joint cumulative probability distribution of

Spissu et al. [12] presented a model in which they first uniform (0,1) marginal variables U1 , U2 as follows:

presented the vehicle type choice component, and then the

vehicle mileage component, and finally they described a joint

structure between these two components. Here, their model as

one of the recent studies will be reviewed. To construct the

vehicle choice part of the mode they supposed the following

utility function for the vehicle type choice:

Based on the Sklars theorem one can generate the above

joint distribution with C(.,.) such that:

type i; i vector of coefficient; xiq is a vector of household

attributes; qi is error term of unobserved factors associated where; C is a copula function; is a dependency parameter.

with vehicle choice. The copula function has to show the degree of dependency

With the above utility function assumes that a household q between vqi , qi. The form of the log-likelihood joint vehicle

will choose vehicle type i when it has the maximum utility type choice and mileage model is:

among all other alternatives as:

Then Spissu et al. [12] have followed Lee [13] to build a The copula method based on log-likelihood has some

polychotomous discrete choice in a form of a series of binary advantages to other methods such as; it gives different

Ahmad Derakhshan et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 281 286 285

dependency for every vehicle type based on C copula where; Xi=vector of shipper attributes; i=parameter

function, the dependency characterization does not depend on associated to shipper attributes; i=disturbance term.

vqi , qi. The continuous choice equation above shows the role of

To solve vehicle choice and mileage use problem in shippers in choice of shipment size and vehicle type. By

transportation, recently MDCEV model proposed by Bhat and substituting continuous choice equation into discrete utility

Sen [4] and extended by Bhat [14]. This method is based on equation one can get an equation in terms of shipment size

the new utility structure which introduced by Gorman [15] for and vehicle type but in reduced form as bellow:

the first time and then used by Kim et al. [16]. This neo-

structure utility function is based on the translated utility

function. With the use of this neo-structure utility function

Bhat and Sen [4] propose the same utility structure for vehicle Here the major concerned issue is estimation bias which

type and mileage use and then by use of Lagrangian form and resulted from the disturbance correlation of discrete and

applying Kuhn-Tucker condition find the optimal solution. continuous equations. To overcome this bias estimation

For further detail one can see Bhat and Sen [4], Bhat [14], indirect and direct approaches are applied, indirect one is to

Spissu et al. [12], Castro et al. [17]. Still this model follows estimate different models with exogenous variables, the other

the original model just the assumption of the model is is to consider interactions between error terms of discrete and

improved to make it closer to reality. continuous choice models or assuming their distribution

patterns like various extreme value distribution [2].

4.2. Shipment size and mode choice Here, Jos Holgun-Veras [18] in estimating his model

used of indirect method. He estimated a shipment size

The group of models that concern about the weight of equation in which the shipment size is exogenous and not

shipment size as a dependent or latent variable is categorized depended upon vehicle choice or discrete variable, and then

as commodity-based models. In studying freight transport this estimated shipment size instead of observed shipment size

Jos Holgun-Veras [18] developed a model to deal with used as an instrumental variable to be replaced in the actual

commercial vehicle type as a discrete and shipment size as a shipment size equation to estimate discrete variable. He

continuous variable. In his conceptual model two main agents estimated different type of shipment size equation but in most

participate directly or indirectly to decide about vehicle type of them shipment size is a function of trip length, a binary

and shipment size. Shippers are responsible to define the variable to represents commodity group, and type of

shipment size, origin/destination, and overall handling economic activities in destination. The general form of

requirements. Carriers on the other hand are responsible to estimated shipment size and correspondent discrete choice is:

determine the mode of transport, vehicle type and size, and

routing pattern. He followed Abdelwahab and Sargious [19]. and

In this approach the decision between shipper-carrier will be

done based on joint interactions and to some extent based on a

delayed response from previous experiences. The value of

joint decision of shipper-carrier has been recognized by To find the suitability of every shipment size to be

Samuelson [20] for the first time. To now two main transported by a specific vehicle he used of an equation that

approaches are identified for discrete-continuous modeling, calculated the difference between average observed shipment

the first approach discussed already which is based on Roys size and estimated shipment size in form of absolute value as:

Identity which used by Dubin and McFadden [1], Hanemann

[2], Hanemann [21], Mannering and Hensher [22] in early

studies, the second approach is based on a reduced form

structure in which total utility is formulated into joint utility In his model vehicle selection process is a function of

[23,24]. average unit cost of transport per ton because it estimates the

Jos Holgun-Veras [18] defined the utility of choice of associated resources to vehicle use and XLi at the above

vehicle as: equation. The rationale for including XLi is that it provides an

indication to know the appropriateness of vehicle for

transporting the shipment size. He found that to increase the

use of certain vehicle class one has to increase the weight-

where; Zi=vector of attributes of carrier company and vehicle; distance tax with rate based on the type of interested

i=vector of parameters associated with Zi; yi=shipment size; vehicle.

=parameter associated with shipment size; =disturbance

term. 5. New research agenda

In his model shipment size is a continuous variable and

defined as: The aim of this study was to identify new developments to

this type of models and the following suggestions are

proposed as new research agenda:

a. Recently, the discrete continuous models have matured in

the case of estimation and application. The next phase in

286 Ahmad Derakhshan et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 (2015) 281 286

order to let the model to be dynamic. This suggestion in

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