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Mizuho Corporate Bank

Weekly Technical Commentary 09 August 2010


Links: http://www.mizuho-sc.com/ Bloomberg Page: MIZH Website: http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/

USD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 85.00...84.00..83.00..82.00. Resistance 86.00..87.00..87.75..88.15.


JPY=EBS, Last Quote [Candle], Last Quote [Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly
11Oct09 - 12Feb11 This week This month
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Candle Pr
15Aug10 85.40 85.75 85.31 85.62
95
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Tenkan Sen 9
15Aug10 88.57
94.5
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Kijun Sen 26
15Aug10 90.01

A low at 85.02 on Friday and the usual


94
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Senkou Span(a) 52
06Feb11 89.29
93.5

rumblings from the authorities. We feel their


JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Senkou Span(b) 52
06Feb11 90.06
93
JPY=EBS , Last Quote, Chikou Span 26
21Feb10 85.62
92.5 potential attempts at holding back the tide of
92
generalised US dollar selling will be either
91.5
ineffective and/or badly conceived. They also
risk being singled out as currency ‘manipulators’
91

90.5

90 were they to try and keep it above the record


89.5 low of 79.75. When this pair last traded here in
89
1995 it was well over two standard deviations
88.5
below the mean at that time, clearly an
extreme. The mean regression today lies at
88

87.5

87 87.00 and one standard deviation below here


86.5 lies at 73.50. A possibility so far off consensus
86
opinion (which predicts 97.00 in 12 months’
85.5
time) that none of the 60 polled by Reuters
85

84.5
were anywhere even close.
Nov09 Dec Jan10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan11 Feb

EUR/USD Chart Levels: Support 1.3050..1.2855..1.2730..1.2565. Resistance 1.3365..1.3420..1.3555..1.3700.


EUR=EBS, Last Quote [Candle], Last Quote [Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly
03Sep09 - 18Feb11
This week This month
Pr
EUR=EBS , Last Quote, Candle
15Aug10 1.3297 1.3297 1.3274 1.3283
EUR=EBS , Last Quote, Tenkan Sen 9 1.5
15Aug10 1.2722
EUR=EBS , Last Quote, Kijun Sen 26
1.48

A weekly close well above Fibonacci 38%


15Aug10 1.2848
EUR=EBS , Last Quote, Senkou Span(a) 52
06Feb11 1.2785 1.46
EUR=EBS , Last Quote, Senkou Span(b) 52
06Feb11 1.3511
retracement resistance and consensus opinion is
1.44
EUR=EBS , Last Quote, Chikou Span 26
21Feb10 1.3283 still very much that the US dollar should get
stronger because American economic recovery
1.42

61.8
1.4
will start imminently. Oh dear, now we shall be
1.38
watching for 9 and 26-week moving averages to
50.0
1.36
cross to bullish setting up for a break through
1.34 the very thin weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ mid-
38.2
1.32 September. If not this week then this month we
1.3 favour another nudge higher to the 50%
1.28 retracement level and the point we were at late
1.26
April before the slide. Price action on the way
1.24
down from there is seen as an ‘extension’ which
has been understandably reversed. Note that
1.22
one-month at-the-money implied volatility
remains at its long term mean at 10.40%.
1.2

Oct09 Nov Dec Jan10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan11 Feb

Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott +44-20-7786-2509 (email: Nicole.Elliott@mhcb.co.uk)


The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or
warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared
solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading
strategy.

Charts provided by Reuters.