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MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES

Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets

Commodity Price Short term market drivers Technical levels Target 1M

Crude Oil (WTI), 1M. 82,22 Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe, demand from China and the US economy - Resistance: 85,00 next 90,00
$/brl. Julys oil market reports showed unchanged to slightly higher expectations of demand in 2010. + Support: 80,00 next 70,00 78
Active hurricane season: Storms at US/Mexican coast can support. Tropical storm Alex does not seem to cause problems +/- Momentum: 
Gold NYMEX spot 1197 Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe + Resistance: 1.250 next 1.275
$/oz Focus has moved a bit away from Europe - bank stress test did not show any major concerns - Support: 1.150 next 1.125 1250
FED wants to keep rates low for an "extended" period. Focus on inflation fear still supports + Momentum: 
Copper LME, 3M 7422 Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe. Also, concerns for Chineese real estate market persists - Resistance: 7.600 next 7.800
$/t LME inventories have fallen about 25% since March. ICSG reports a market in deficit in March og April + Support: 7.200 next 7.000 7.200
China still has high growth in 2nd quarter, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) +/- Momentum: 
Aluminium LME, 2205 Financing deals means that, even if LME-inventories are at record highs, a smaller part of the physical aluminium is available + Resistance: 2.225 next 2.300
3M $/t China still has high growth in 2nd quarter, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) +/- Support: 2.070 next 1.850 2.070
Continued uncertainty about debt situation in southern Europe and demand from China - Momentum: 
Nickel LME, 3M 22000 Still weak demand indicators in the OECD - but improving in recent months - Resistance: 23.000 next 25.000
$/t China still has high growth in 2nd quarter, 11,1%, industrial production up 13,7 % y-o-y in June (less than expected) + Support: 17.000 next 15.750 20.500
Mudslide in China's Gansu province (major producer) may disturb Chineese nickel production + Momentum: 
Wheat CBOT 861,8 Russia bans export from the 15th of August - panic in the wheat market + Resistance: 875 next 935
Dec10 USc/bu Crop conditions in the US at a very high level suggest high yields - Support: 700 next 650 700
Worries on European and Russian grain production. USDA adjust down production by 10 mio. in July (ex. China) + Momentum: 
Wheat MATIF 223,50 Russia bans export from the 15th of August - panic in the wheat market + Resistance: 240 next 260
Nov10 €/t Worries on European and Russian grain production. USDA adjust down production by 10 mio. in July (ex. China) + Support: 200 next 180 200
Strong competition from Russia for export markets; this affects primarily European wheat - Momentum: 
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Publisher: Editors: Trading desk, commodities:


Hans Chr. Haugaard Read more:
Jyske Markets Casper Andersen Charlotte Rahlf Jeppe Tokkesdal Jensen Read more commodities analyses at www.jyskemarkets.com
Commodities Analyst Analyst Søren Kræn Pedersen
Vestergade 8-16 +45 89 89 71 74 +45 89 89 71 75 Peter Peschardt Disclaimer:
DK-8600 Silkeborg candersen@jyskebank.dk crahlf@jyskebank.dk +45 87 57 82 65 Please see the last page
raavarer@jyskebank.dk
MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES
Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets

Commodity Price Short term market drivers Technical levels Target 1M

Corn CBOT 420,5 Continued indications of Chineese imports support + Resistance: 450 next 470
Dec10 USc/bu Most recent data from USDA suggests high ethanol use + Support: 415 next 375 400
Crop conditions in the US at a high level suggest high yields - Momentum: 
Soybeans CBOT 1030,3 Imports to China hit rekord level in June (up 42 % m/m og 32 % y/y) + Resistance: 1.060 next 1.080
Nov10 USc/bu China will let its currency strengthen and thereby increase the buying power (commodity demand) - Support: 1.025 next 950 1.020
South american harvest will most likely be quite large and reduce US exports when harvested - Momentum: 
Rapeseed MATIF 385,3 Australia’s production seems to come out rather favourable. - Resistance: 400 next 430
Nov10 €/t The USDA projects consumption at 59.5m tonnes (2010/11), but a balance deficit of 1.6m tonnes. + Support: 75 next 350 380
Germany, the largest producer in the EU, anticipates lower yields than last year due to the warm weather conditions. + Momentum: 

Publisher: Editors: Trading desk, commodities:


Hans Chr. Haugaard Read more:
Jyske Markets Casper Andersen Charlotte Rahlf Jeppe Tokkesdal Jensen Read more commodities analyses at www.jyskemarkets.com
Commodities Analyst Analyst Søren Kræn Pedersen
Vestergade 8-16 +45 89 89 71 74 +45 89 89 71 75 Mads Hemmingsen Disclaimer:
DK-8600 Silkeborg candersen@jyskebank.dk crahlf@jyskebank.dk Peter Peschardt Please see the last page
+45 87 57 82 65
raavarer@jyskebank.dk
MARKET DRIVERS - COMMODITIES
Commodities • 10.08.2010 • Jyske Markets

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