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HAUS KHAS, NEW DELHI-110016

Course Number: CEL 742

Traffic Engineering

REPORT

Lab 2: Vehicle Arrival Models: Count

Submitted To:

Dr. Kalaga Ramchandra Rao

(Associate Professor)

Civil Engineering Department, IIT Delhi

Submitted By:

Mohit Kohli

2015CEP2096

M Tech Transportation Engineering, Semester-I (2016-2017)

LAB-2: Vehicle Arrival Models: Count

Objectives: To determine the probability of how many vehicles will arrive at a left turn pocket at a

signalized signalized intersection during peak periods.

Need for the Study: Modelling arrival of vehicle at section of road is an important step. The vehicle

arrival is a random process, thus this study estimates how vehicles arrive at a section. Vehicle arrival shall

be characterized statistically as several times vehicles comes together, while other time, they arrive

sparsely.

General Overview:

Poisson distribution:

It is used to model the random process, the number of vehicles arriving in a given time period. It can

represent several traffic flow situations where the flow exhibits random behavior. Let h1, h2, ... etc

indicate the headways, then as mentioned earlier, they take some real values. Hence, these headways or

inter arrival time can be modelled using some continuous distribution. Also, let t1, t2, t3 and t4 are four

equal time intervals, then the number of vehicles arrived in each of these interval is an integer value.

The probability density function of the Poisson distribution is given as:

Normal Distribution:

Normal or Gaussian distribution is a very common continuous probability distribution. Normal

distributions are important in statistics and are often used in the civil engineering to represent real-

valued random variables whose distributions are not known. it states that averages of random

variables independently drawn from independent distributions converge in distribution to the normal, that

is, become normally distributed when the number of random variables is sufficiently large. The probability

density of the normal distribution is:

Where:

is mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).

is standard deviation

is variance

Study Components:

Poisson distribution is used to determine the expected number of cars that arrive at a left turn pocket in

unit length of time. The spacing between the vehicles is the distance between the front bumper of one car

to the successive car. This spacing phenomenon is studies using Poisson distribution. Using the Chi-

Square test, the goodness of fit can be tested. The other two distributions generally used are normal

distribution and binomial distributions.

Mean : is the average of all numbers and is sometimes called the arithmetic mean.

Median : is the middle number in a sequence of numbers.

Variance : is the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean, and

it informally measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their mean.

Standard Deviation : is a measure of the spread of scores within a set of data.

A busy intersection having an exclusive left turn is selected. The number of vehicles arriving

during the selected interval is recorded in the data sheet. The data is used to perform Poisson distribution

and normal distribution. The intersection between Aurbindo marg and Gamal Abdel Nasser Marg is

selected as shown in the map below:

WORK SHEET: LAB 2

DATE: 22-08-2015 DAY: MONDAY WEATHER: SUNNY

Result:

Arrival Pattern

No of Vehicles

Sl. No. Time

2 Wheeler Car Auto/LCV Bus HV Total

1 12:00:00 PM 7 7 4 0 0 18

2 12:01:00 PM 7 5 4 0 0 16

3 12:02:00 PM 3 6 2 0 0 11

4 12:03:00 PM 4 0 2 0 0 6

5 12:04:00 PM 0 0 1 0 0 1

6 12:05:00 PM 9 11 4 2 0 26

7 12:06:00 PM 1 6 3 0 0 10

8 12:07:00 PM 0 3 1 0 0 4

9 12:08:00 PM 6 7 1 0 0 14

10 12:09:00 PM 1 2 0 0 0 3

11 12:10:00 PM 7 2 3 2 0 14

12 12:11:00 PM 3 2 0 0 0 5

13 12:12:00 PM 3 0 0 0 0 3

14 12:13:00 PM 1 0 1 0 0 2

15 12:14:00 PM 1 4 0 0 0 5

16 12:15:00 PM 2 10 8 1 0 21

17 12:16:00 PM 5 8 1 1 0 15

18 12:17:00 PM 2 5 1 0 0 8

19 12:18:00 PM 1 0 0 0 0 1

20 12:19:00 PM 2 1 0 0 0 3

21 12:20:00 PM 7 13 1 0 0 21

22 12:21:00 PM 1 9 3 0 0 13

23 12:22:00 PM 5 3 2 0 0 10

24 12:23:00 PM 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 12:24:00 PM 0 2 1 0 0 3

26 12:25:00 PM 1 5 2 0 0 8

27 12:26:00 PM 1 5 1 0 0 7

28 12:27:00 PM 2 2 1 0 0 5

29 12:28:00 PM 6 3 0 0 0 9

30 12:29:00 PM 3 1 3 0 0 7

31 12:30:00 PM 2 5 2 0 0 9

32 12:31:00 PM 4 7 0 0 0 11

33 12:32:00 PM 3 4 2 0 0 9

34 12:33:00 PM 7 3 0 0 0 10

35 12:34:00 PM 5 2 1 0 0 8

36 12:35:00 PM 6 0 3 0 0 9

37 12:36:00 PM 8 2 0 0 0 10

38 12:37:00 PM 7 2 2 0 0 11

39 12:38:00 PM 3 4 2 0 0 9

40 12:39:00 PM 5 4 0 1 0 10

41 12:40:00 PM 0 1 4 0 0 5

42 12:41:00 PM 5 2 3 0 0 10

43 12:42:00 PM 6 3 4 0 0 13

44 12:43:00 PM 2 4 0 0 0 6

45 12:44:00 PM 0 3 2 0 0 5

46 12:45:00 PM 4 2 3 0 0 9

47 12:46:00 PM 6 3 0 0 0 9

48 12:47:00 PM 3 4 2 1 0 10

49 12:48:00 PM 7 2 0 0 0 9

50 12:49:00 PM 5 4 1 0 0 10

51 12:50:00 PM 2 3 4 0 0 9

52 12:51:00 PM 0 2 3 0 0 5

53 12:52:00 PM 6 3 3 0 0 12

54 12:53:00 PM 5 4 0 0 0 9

55 12:54:00 PM 3 1 4 2 0 10

56 12:55:00 PM 4 2 2 0 0 8

57 12:56:00 PM 5 3 0 0 0 8

58 12:57:00 PM 2 3 0 0 0 5

59 12:58:00 PM 4 2 4 0 0 10

60 12:59:00 PM 5 3 0 0 0 8

Total 215 209 101 10 0 535

AVG 8.916667

Poisson distribution:

P(x) Chi Square Test

Arrivals frequency Vehicles Probability Frequency

0 1 0 0.00013413 0.000134127 0.008047597 122.2687393

1 2 2 0.00119596 0.001195962 0.071757742 51.8148718

2 1 2 0.005332 0.005331999 0.319919933 1.44570203

3 4 12 0.01584789 0.015847886 0.950873135 9.777513207

4 1 4 0.03532758 0.035327578 2.119654697 0.591429653

5 7 35 0.06300085 0.063000848 3.780050877 2.742839368

6 2 12 0.09362626 0.09362626 5.617575608 2.32962655

7 2 14 0.11926202 0.119262022 7.155721311 3.714714573

8 6 48 0.13292746 0.132927462 7.975647711 0.489387699

9 10 90 0.13169665 0.131696652 7.901799121 0.557144881

10 10 100 0.11742951 0.117429515 7.045770883 1.238682015

11 3 33 0.09518908 0.095189076 5.711344579 1.287155647

12 1 12 0.07073077 0.070730772 4.243846319 2.479481619

13 2 26 0.04851406 0.048514055 2.910843309 0.285015525

14 2 28 0.03089883 0.030898833 1.853929965 0.011508771

15 1 15 0.01836764 0.018367639 1.102058368 0.009451324

16 1 16 0.01023613 0.010236132 0.614167945 0.24238708

17 0 0 0.00536895 0.005368952 0.322137108 0.322137108

18 1 18 0.00265962 0.00265962 0.159577179 4.426137403

19 0 0 0.00124815 0.001248155 0.07488929 0.07488929

20 0 0 0.00055647 0.000556469 0.033388142 0.033388142

21 2 42 0.00023628 0.000236279 0.014176711 278.1670684

22 0 0 9.5764E-05 9.57644E-05 0.005745864 0.005745864

23 0 0 3.7126E-05 3.71261E-05 0.002227563 0.002227563

24 0 0 1.3793E-05 1.37934E-05 0.000827602 0.000827602

25 0 0 4.9196E-06 4.91963E-06 0.000295178 0.000295178

26 1 26 1.6872E-06 1.68718E-06 0.000101231 9876.408367

TOTAL 60 535 0.999939583 59.99637497 10360.72673

Graph : Probability values of vehicle arrivals computed using Poisson distribution

Graph : Cumulative probability values of vehicle arrivals computed using Poisson distribution

Min Value 0 Median 9

Std.

Range 26 Deviation 4.917253149

Bin Size 4.08

Normal Distribution:

Cumulative Chi-

Cumulative Normal Estimated

ARRIVAL Frequency Estimated Square

Frequency Frequency Frequency

Frequency Test

0 4 9 9 0.1586841 9.5210469 9.5210469 0.02851

4 8 17 26 0.4260583 25.563499 16.042452 0.05715

8 12 24 50 0.7346848 44.081085 18.517586 1.62315

12 16 6 56 0.9251379 55.508272 11.427187 2.57757

16 20 1 57 0.9879009 59.274055 3.765783 2.03133

20 24 2 59 0.9989205 59.935228 0.6611724 2.71103

24 28 1 60 0.999948 59.996878 0.06165 14.2822

Total 60 59.996878 23.311

1. Chi-square test fails for Poisson distribution and hence normal distribution is performed.

2. Null hypothesis is expected as the observed value is less than critical value from the 2 table.

Reference:

distribution.html

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