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alfa 0.

54
Demanda Nivel Forecast Error Error*Error Abs error
0 2017.9
1 2024 2021.194 2017.9 -6.1 37.21 6.1
2 2076 2050.78924 2021.194 -54.806 3003.697636 54.806
3 1992 2019.04305 2050.78924 58.78924 3456.17474 58.78924
4 2075 2049.259803 2019.04305 -55.9569496 3131.180209 55.9569496
5 2070 2060.459509 2049.259803 -20.74019682 430.155764 20.74019682
6 2046 2052.651374 2060.459509 14.45950946 209.077414 14.45950946
7 2027 2038.799632 2052.651374 25.65137435 657.9930062 25.65137435
8 1972 2002.727831 2038.799632 66.7996322 4462.190862 66.7996322
9 1912 1953.734802 2002.727831 90.72783081 8231.539284 90.72783081
10 1985 1970.618009 1953.734802 -31.26519783 977.5125951 31.26519783
2017.9 87.55924259 24596.7 425.2959311

MAD 42.52959311
MSE 2459.673151
MAPE 0.021271157

2100

2050

2000

1950 Column C
Column E
1900

1850

1800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% Erro Bias(t) MAD(t) TS limite superiorlimite inferior

0.30% -6.1 6.1 -1 6 -6


2.64% -60.906 30.453 -2 6 -6
2.95% -2.11676 39.89841333 -0.05305374 6 -6
2.70% -58.0737096 43.9130474 -1.3224705 6 -6
1.00% -78.8139064 39.27847728 -2.0065418 6 -6
0.71% -64.354397 35.14198265 -1.83126825 6 -6
1.27% -38.7030226 33.78618146 -1.14552817 6 -6
3.39% 28.09660961 37.9128628 0.741083831 6 -6
4.75% 118.8244404 43.78119258 2.714052163 6 -6
1.58% 87.55924259 42.52959311 2.058783924 6 -6
21%

2
Column L
0 Column M
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Column N
-2

-4

-6

-8
period 4
n Demanda F L T S Error Error*Error
3826.8 253.36
1 3200 3110 4102.00 254.63 0.76 -90.32 8157.32
2 7658 7843 4337.69 253.53 1.80 185.03 34235.75
3 4420 4546 4567.68 252.16 0.99 126.45 15988.50
4 2384 2132 4924.79 258.25 0.44 -251.86 63435.13
5 3654 3950 5111.39 254.09 0.76 296.24 87756.14
6 9680 9659 5367.61 254.22 1.80 -20.78 431.68
7 5695 5567 5645.66 255.60 0.99 -127.99 16380.34
8 2553 2611 5877.29 254.21 0.44 57.52 3308.40
9 4742 4673 6148.16 255.18 0.76 -68.90 4746.79
10 11673 11528 6418.22 256.04 1.80 -145.39 21137.15
11 6640 6609 6680.00 256.37 0.99 -30.82 949.71
12 2737 3068 6798.27 248.36 0.44 331.42 109838.90
13 5486 5371 7074.55 249.98 0.76 -115.43 13323.30
14 13186 13186 7324.53 249.98 1.80 0.00 0.00
15 7448 7501 7564.71 249.41 0.99 52.66 2772.80
16 3485 3457 7825.91 250.10 0.44 -28.29 800.37
17 6155 6587.39 0.76 383262.30
18 14989 5373.16 1.80
19 8493 4382.75 0.99
20 3904 3574.89 0.44

MAD 120.5668052
MAPE 3.15%
MSE 23953.89364

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000 Column B
Column C
6000

4000

2000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Abs error % Erro Bias(t) MAD(t) TS limite superiorlimite inferior

90.32 0.03 -90.32 90.32 -1.00 6 -6


185.03 0.02 94.71 137.67 0.69 6 -6
126.45 0.03 221.16 133.93 1.65 6 -6
251.86 0.11 -30.71 163.41 -0.19 6 -6
296.24 0.08 265.53 189.98 1.40 6 -6
20.78 0.00 244.75 161.78 1.51 6 -6
127.99 0.02 116.77 156.95 0.74 6 -6
57.52 0.02 174.29 144.52 1.21 6 -6
68.90 0.01 105.39 136.12 0.77 6 -6
145.39 0.01 -40.00 137.05 -0.29 6 -6
30.82 0.00 -70.81 127.39 -0.56 6 -6
331.42 0.12 260.61 144.39 1.80 6 -6
115.43 0.02 145.18 142.16 1.02 6 -6
0.00 0.00 145.18 132.01 1.10 6 -6
52.66 0.01 197.84 126.72 1.56 6 -6
28.29 0.01 169.55 120.57 1.41 6 -6
1929.07 0.50

2
TS
0 limite superior
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 limite inferior
Column B -2
Column C
-4

-6

-8

0
0
alfa 0.184326194
Lo 3826.8 beta 0.058005247
To 253.36 gamma 0
S1 0.762147095
S2 1.800251135
S3 0.990249193
s4 0.442366709
period 4
n Demanda F L T S
51.928 1.4301
1 43 46 53.36 1.43 0.85
2 57 58 54.79 1.43 1.06
3 71 73 56.22 1.43 1.31
4 46 44 57.65 1.43 0.77
5 50 50 59.08 1.43 0.85
6 61 64 60.51 1.43 1.06
7 85 81 61.94 1.43 1.31
8 47 49 63.37 1.43 0.77
9 62 55 64.80 1.43 0.85
10 74 70 66.23 1.43 1.06
11 86 88 67.66 1.43 1.31
12 50 53 69.09 1.43 0.77
13 57 60 70.52 1.43 0.85
14 78 76 71.95 1.43 1.06
15 97 96 73.38 1.43 1.31
16 61 58 74.81 1.43 0.77
17 65 76.24 0.85
18 83 76.24 1.06
19 103 76.24 1.31
20 62 76.24 0.77

MAD 2.667470596
MAPE 4.33%
MSE 9.165303392

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Error Error*Error Abs error % Erro Bias(t) MAD(t) TS limite superior

2.59 6.68 2.59 0.06 2.59 2.59 1.00 6


1.21 1.47 1.21 0.02 3.80 1.90 2.00 6
2.48 6.15 2.48 0.03 6.28 2.09 3.00 6
-1.63 2.65 1.63 0.04 4.65 1.98 2.35 6
0.47 0.22 0.47 0.01 5.12 1.68 3.06 6
3.29 10.82 3.29 0.05 8.41 1.94 4.32 6
-4.04 16.34 4.04 0.05 4.37 2.24 1.95 6
1.77 3.15 1.77 0.04 6.14 2.19 2.81 6
-6.64 44.10 6.64 0.11 -0.50 2.68 -0.19 6
-3.63 13.20 3.63 0.05 -4.13 2.78 -1.49 6
2.43 5.93 2.43 0.03 -1.70 2.74 -0.62 6
3.18 10.09 3.18 0.06 1.48 2.78 0.53 6
3.25 10.54 3.25 0.06 4.73 2.82 1.68 6
-1.56 2.42 1.56 0.02 3.17 2.73 1.16 6
-1.09 1.19 1.09 0.01 2.08 2.62 0.80 6
-3.42 11.70 3.42 0.06 -1.34 2.67 -0.50 6
146.64 42.68 0.69

0
Column B
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Column C
-2

-4

-6

14 15 16 -8
limite inferior

-6 alfa 0
-6 Lo 51.928 beta 0.087627248
-6 To 1.4301 gamma 0
-6 S1 0.854325769
-6 S2 1.062480421
-6 S3 1.307057926
-6 s4 0.769684005
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6

TS
limite superior
12 13 14 15 16 17 limite inferior
0=no
1= transaccin en tiempo t Tamao de la transaccin en tiempo t
x(t)= y(t) z(t)
n(t) nmero de periodos desde la ltimo transaccin

Alfa 0.9731410458 parmetro para la magnitud


Beta 0.8750392309 parmetro para la frecuencia de transaccin

t Demanda Forecast n(t) z^(t) n^(t)


1 5 2 1 4 2
2 0 2 1 4 2
3 2 1.0268589542 2 2.053717908 2
4 0 1.0268589542 1 2.053717908 2
5 0 1.0268589542 2 2.053717908 2
6 10 3.4039783069 3 9.786571173 2.875039231
7 0 3.4039783069 1 9.786571173 2.875039231

MSE
ltimo transaccin

e transaccin

Error
-3
2
-0.973141046
1.0268589542
1.0268589542
-6.596021693
3.4039783069 12

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
-0.444495218
Demanda
Forecast

19 20 21 22 23 24 25
0=no
1= transaccin en tiempo t Tamao de la transaccin en tiempo t
x(t)= y(t) z(t)
n(t) nmero de periodos desde la ltimo transaccin

Alfa 0.9731410458 parmetro para la magnitud


Beta 0.8750392309 parmetro para la frecuencia de transaccin

t Demanda Forecast n(t) z^(t) n^(t)


1 0 27.8333333333 5 167 6
2 1000 162.9377485262 6 977.6264912 6
3 0 162.9377485262 1 977.6264912 6
4 0 162.9377485262 2 977.6264912 6
5 0 162.9377485262 3 977.6264912 6
6 0 162.9377485262 4 977.6264912 6
7 0 162.9377485262 5 977.6264912 6
8 800 134.1284769649 6 804.7708618 6
9 0 134.1284769649 1 804.7708618 6
10 0 134.1284769649 2 804.7708618 6
11 200 64.0743863574 3 216.2435129 3.374882307
12 0 64.0743863574 1 216.2435129 3.374882307
13 0 64.0743863574 2 216.2435129 3.374882307
14 0 64.0743863574 3 216.2435129 3.374882307
15 0 64.0743863574 4 216.2435129 3.374882307
16 0 64.0743863574 5 216.2435129 3.374882307
17 0 64.0743863574 6 216.2435129 3.374882307
18 1500 223.8458962265 7 1465.519643 6.547002505
19 0 223.8458962265 1 1465.519643 6.547002505
20 100 53.2188275517 2 136.6764295 2.56819693
21 400 328.544757003 1 392.9274043 1.195963095
22 0 328.544757003 1 392.9274043 1.195963095
23 0 328.544757003 2 392.9274043 1.195963095
24 0 328.544757003 3 392.9274043 1.195963095
25 0 328.544757003 4 392.9274043 1.195963095
MSE
ltimo transaccin

e transaccin

Error
27.833333333
-837.0622515
162.93774853
162.93774853
162.93774853
162.93774853
162.93774853 1600
-665.871523
134.12847696
1400
134.12847696
-135.9256136
1200
64.074386357
64.074386357
1000
64.074386357
64.074386357
64.074386357 800
64.074386357
-1276.154104 600
223.84589623
-46.78117245 400
-71.455243
328.544757 200
328.544757
328.544757 0
328.544757 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
1.459625E-05
Demanda
Forecast

19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Forecasting Method Applicability
Moving Average No trend or seasonality
Simple exponential Smoothin No trend or seasonality
Holts Model Trend but no seasonality
Winters Model Trend and seasonality

Acotac
Error Pronstico sesgado
MSE Varianza del pronstico Excelente si el costo de un error gra
MAD Mejor indicador Exelente si el costo de un error del p
MAPE Estacionalidad marcada Demanda vara entre periodos
TS Pronstico sesgado Subestimar la demanda
Acotaciones

celente si el costo de un error grande es mucho mayor que las ganancias de pronsticos muy precisos
elente si el costo de un error del pronstico es proporcional al tamao del error del pronstico
emanda vara entre periodos
bestimar la demanda Sobrestimar la demanda

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