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SOFTWARE

Evaluation of environmental impacts
using RAM analysis
INTSOK, Perth

10 September 2015

1 DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

Agenda  Traditional RAM approach  Extended RAM approach used in the oil and gas industry  FPSO Case study – Flaring operations – Flaring limit  Summary  Questions DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .

Traditional RAM analysis  RAM analysis stands for Reliability. Availability and Maintainability analysis  It is a methodology used to predict asset performance • Equipment performance data Reliability (failure frequencies) • System configuration  Equipment/System uptime Availability Maintainability  Maintenance resources  Shift constraints  Mobilization delays  Spares constraints DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .

6 Time 0. Lifecycle simulation Estimation of TTF • Call random number • Access appropriate cumulative distribution • Read-off time to failure Cumulative Probability function Estimation of Estimation of 1 TTF TTF 0.4 Pump on Pump on Pump on 0.8 0.2 0 Estimation of Estimation of 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TTR TTR Time to Failure (years) Pump failed Pump failed Estimation of TTR • Check Maintenance Resources availability • Time To Repair • Ramp-up time DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .

Availability Actual We know these periods of time Pump on Pump on Pump on Pump failed Pump failed 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝑨𝒗𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 = 𝑷𝒐𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒍 × 𝟏𝟎𝟎% Potential Pump always on Time Slide DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 5 .

RAM analysis in the oil and gas For the oil and gas industry. Operational Time DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .2 Machinery. Pumps.3. Reciprocating. n/T Failure Rate. three areas are important: Equipment Reliability Operational logic Maintenance Strategies OREDA 2002 1.

Quantitative Picture Of Performance  Equipment performance data Reliability (failure frequencies)  System configuration  Equipment/System uptime Availability  Achieved production  Production losses Maintainability Production Efficiency  Criticality  Contract shortfalls  Maintenance resources  Delayed cargoes  Shift constraints  Mobilization delays  Spares constraints Operability Net Present Value  Plant interdependencies  Lost Profit Opportunity  Plant re-start times  Production/demand rates  Storage Size Unit Costs/Revenue  Tanker Fleet and Operations  Product price  Man-hour/spares costs  Transport costs  Discount rates DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .

Simulation .Event Schematic Delay in Time To Failure Actual Repair Time commencing repair Capacity Downtime Capacity Loss at Loss at Failure Repair System Production Time 8 DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .

Potential production is: Production 100mbbls/hour x 10 hours = 1000mbbls (𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝒎𝒃𝒃𝒍𝒔 −𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝒎𝒃𝒃𝒍𝒔) 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 = × 𝟏𝟎𝟎% System 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝒎𝒃𝒃𝒍𝒔 Time Production loss is: We know this: 100mbbls/hour x 2 hours = 200mbbls 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 = 𝟖𝟎% Repair time = 2 hours Slide DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 9 . Production Efficiency (Utilization) System Production Actual Volume Time Pump on Pump on Pump on Pump failed Pump degraded 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 = × 𝟏𝟎𝟎% 𝑷𝒐𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒍 System Production Potential Volume Time Pump always on We know this : Production rate = 100mbbls/hour Assume the system is running for 10 hours.

Extending RAM analysis  After adding the ability to incorporate production profiles. the RAM analysis can be extended to an endless number of scenarios and account for factors such as: – Export operations – Boosting operations – Storage tank modelling – Flaring operations DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .

FPSO model  Floating Production. Operational Expenditure is higher than the Revenue).g. DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 . Storage and Offloading vessels (FPSO) are an effective option for processing and storage of oil and gas.  The benefits of RAM analysis in the various stages of an FPSO life include: – Feasibility stage: to identify what is the most effective technology – Decommissioning stage: to highlight the time where the operation is no longer justifiable (e.

FPSO model DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .

Reliability Block Diagrams  Benefits of RBDs – Provide quick visualization of system configuration – Identify system weak spots (critical equipment) – Relatively easy to prepare and interpret – Often used in conjunction with other assessment techniques (FMEA or computer simulation) as part of a more rigorous assessment  FPSO unit RBD: DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .

DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 . with the gas normally being compressed and exported via a pipeline.  In the event that an export gas compressor fails. it is permissible to continue oil production for a limited amount of time or for a limited volume by flaring the associated gas.Flaring operations  An oil field development produces both oil and associated gas.

assure security of supply to society DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 . reduce environmental impact.Flaring results The RAM analysis will tell us our expected: – Duration of flaring – Volume flared – Number of shutdowns – Lost production because of shutdowns What can we do with this information? – Understand the likelihood of exceeding environmental limits – Design away the need to flare – Be prepared to repair equipment that requires flare bypass Benefits: – Produce more.

an extensive analysis of the potential of flared volume can be explored  Finally. informed decisions can be made based on the analysis results DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 .Summary  RAM analysis is a powerful methodology used to predict asset performance  This methodology can be extended to account for flow assessment  With the extended analysis many other factors can be taken into account such as flaring operations  Flaring plays an important role in oil and gas production systems  Flaring operations typically cannot be carried on for long periods due to environmental legislation  With the extended approach.

Aligning Natural Gas Industry in an Efficient and Effective way towards Greenhouse Gases Emissions. ABRISCO. Alvarega. V.F. Advanced RAM analysis as a tool to evaluate and reduce losses and flared gas in offshore production units. 2013 [4] T. 2015 DNV GL © 2014 10 September 2015 . Brazil [2] Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC). 2011 [5] MAROS Software. T. generation 9. United Kingdom [3] C. ESREL. National Petroleum Agency.Additional information sources [1] Portaria ANP n° 249. V. Sodré. Alvarega. DNV Software.

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