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EDWARD N. LORENZ

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

(Manuscript received 18 Novernber 1962, in revised forrn 7 January 1963)

ABSTRACT

Finite systems of deterrninistic ordinary-nonlinear differential equations ay ?e desied t? repr.eset

forced dissipative hydrodynamic flow. Solutions ! thee equations can be 1den _ 1fied

th traecto:1es .m

_

phase space. For those systems with bounded solutions, 1t 1s found that nonpenod1c solut1ons are ordmnly

unstable with respect to small modifications, so that slightly differing initial states can evolve into consder

ably different states. Systerns with bounded soluion are shown to possess bounded nurne:1cal _

solutions.

A simple system representing cellular convection 1s solved numencally. Ali of the solutions are found

to be unstable, and almost ali of them are nonperiodic.

The feasibility of very-long-range weather prediction is examined in the light of these results.

l. Introduction Thus there are occasions when more than the statistics

of irregular flow are of very real concern.

Certain hydrodynamical systems exhibit steady-state In this study we shall work with systems of deter

flow patterns, while others oscillate in a regular periodic ministic equations which are idealizations of hydro

fashion. Still others vary in an irregular, seemingly dynamical systems. We shall be interested principally in

haphazard manner, and, even when observed for long nonperiodic solutions, i.e., solutions which never repeat

periods of time, do not appear to repeat their previous their past history exactly, and where all approximate

history. repetitions are of finite duration. Thus we shall be in

These modes of behavior may all be observed in the volved with the ultimate behavior of the solutions, as

fami1iar rotating-basin experiments, described by Fultz, opposed to the transient behavior associated with

et al. (1959) and Hide (1958). In these experiments, a arbitrary initial conditions.

cylindrical vessel containing water is rotated about its A closed hydrodynamical system of finite mass may

axis, and is heated near its rim and cooled near its center ostensibly be treated mathematically as a finite collec

in a steady symmetrcal fashion. Under certain condi tion of molecules-usually a very large finite collection

tions the resulting flow is as symmetric and steady as the -in which case the governing laws are expressible as .

heating which gives rise to t. Under different conditions finite set of ordinary differential equations. These equa

a system of regularly spaced waves develops, and pro tions are generally highly intractable, and the set of

gresses at a uniform speed without changing its shape. molecules is usually approximated by a continuous dis

Under still different conditions an irregular flow pattern tribution of mass. The governing laws are then expressed

forms, and moves and changes its shape in an irregu1ar as a set of partial differential equations, containing such

nonperiodic manner. quantities as velocity, density, and pressure as de

Lack of periodicity is very common in natural sys pendent variables.

tems, and is one of the distinguishing features of turbu It is sometimes possible to obtain particular solutions

lent flow. Because instantaneous turbulent flow patterns of these equations analytically, especially when the

are so irregular, attention is often confined to the sta solutions are perodic or invariant with time, and, in

tistics of turbulence, which, in contrast to the details of deed, much work has been devoted to obtaining such

turbulence, often behave in a regular well-organized solutions by one scheme or another. Ordinarily, how

manner. The short-range weather forecaster, however, ever, nonperiodic solutions cannot readily be deter

is forced willy-nilly to predict tbe details of the large mined except by numerical procedures. Such procedures

scale turbulent eddies-the cyclones and anticyclones involve replacing the continuous variables by a new

which continually arrange themselves into new patterns. finite set of functions of time, which may perhaps be the

values of the continuous variables at a chosen grid of

1 The research reported in this work has been sponsored by the points, or the coefficients in the expansions of these

Geophysics Research Directorate of the Air Force Cambridge variables in series of orthogonal functions. The govern

Research Center, under Contract No. AF 19(604)-4969. ing Iaws then become a finite set of ordinary differential

MARCH 1963 E D \\- A R D N. LOREKZ 131

equations again, although a far simpler set than the one an M-dimensional Euclidean space r whose coordinates

which governs individual molecular motions. are X1, , X,1. Each point in phase space represents a

In any real hydrodynamical system, viscous dissipa possible instantaneous state of the system. A state

tion is always occurring, unless the system is moving as which is varying in accordance with (1) is represented

a salid, and thermal dissipation is always occurring, by a moving particle in phase space, traveling along a

unless the system is at constant temperature. For cer trajectory in phase space. For completeness, the position

tain purposes many systems may be treated as conserva of a stationary particle, representing a steady state, is

tive systems, in which the total energy, or sorne other included as a trajectory.

quantity, does not vary with time. In seeking the ulti Phase space has been a useful concept in treating

mate behavior of a system, the use of conservative finite systems, and has been used by such mathema

equations is unsatisfactory, since the ultimate value of ticians as Gibbs (1902) in bis development of statistical

any conservative quantity would then have to equal the mechanics, Poincar (1881) in his treatment of the solu

arbitrarily chosen initial value. This difficulty may be tions of differential equations, and Birkhoff (1927) in

obviated by including the dissipative processes, thereby his treatise on dynamical systems.

making the equations nonconservative, and also includ From the theory of differential equations (e,g., Ford

ing externa! mechanical or thermal forcing, thus pre 1933, ch. 6), it follows, since the partial derivatives

venting the system from ultimately reaching a state of aF,/ aX1 are continuous, that if to is any time, and if

rest. If the system is to be deterministic, the forcing X10, X1no is any point in r, equations (1) possess a

functions, if not constant with time, must themselves unique solution

vary according to sorne deterministic rule.

In this work, then, we shall deal specifically with X; = f;(X10,",X ,10,t), i =l, ,M, (2)

finite systems of deterministic ordinary differential

valid throughout sorne time interval containing to, and

equations, designed to represent forced dissipative

satisfying the condition

hydrodynamical systems. We shall study the properties

of nonperiodic solutions of these equations. f,{X10,,XM0,to)=X;o, i=l, ,M. (3)

It is not obvious that such solutions can exist at all.

Indeed, in dissipative systems governed by finite sets of The functions f, are continuous in X10 , , X1,Io and t.

linear equations, a constant forcing leads ultimately to Hence there is a unique trajectory through each point of

a constant response, while a periodic forcing leads to a r. Two or more trajectories may, however, approach the

periodic response. Hence, nonperiodic flow has sorne same point or the same curve asymptotically as t - oo

times been regarded as the result of nonperiodic or or as t- - oo. Moreover, since the functions f; are

random forcing. continuous, the passage of time defines a continuous

The reasoning leading to these concludions is not deformation of any region of r into another region.

applicable when the governing equations are nonlinear. In the familiar case of a conservative system, where

If the equations contain terms representing advection sorne positive definite quantity Q, which may represent

the transport of some property of a fluid by the motion sorne form of energy, is invariant with time, each tra

of the fluid itself-a constant forcing can lead to a jectory is confined to one or another of the surfaces of

variable response. In the rotating-basin experiments constant Q. These surfaces may take the form of closed

already mentioned, both periodic and nonperiodic flow concentric shells.

result from thermal forcing which, within the limits of If, on the other hand, there is dissipation and forcing,

experimental control, is constant. Exact periodic solu and if, whenever Q equals or exceeds sorne fi.xed value

tions of simplified systems of equations, representing Q1, the dissipation acts to diminish Q more rapidly then

dissipative flow with constant thermal forcing, have the forcing can increase Q, then ( -dQ/dt) has a positive

been obtained analytically by the writer (1962a). The lower bound where Q;;;Q 1, and each trajectory must

writer (1962b) has also found nonperiodic solutions of ultimately become trapped in the region where Q<Q 1 .

similar systems of equations by numerical means. Trajectories representing forced dissipative flow may

therefore differ considerably from those representing

2. Phase space conservative flow.

Forced dissipative systems of this sort are typified

Consider a system whose state may be described by M by the system

variables X 1, , X1n. Let the system be governed by

the set of equations dX;/dt="E, a;ikXiXk- L, b;iXi +c;, (4)

i,k

dX./dt=F;(X1, X,,r), i= 1, , M, (1) where a;;kX;X;Xk vanishes identically, b;iX;X is

positive definite, and c1, , C.1 are constants. If

where time t is the single independent variable, and the

functions F, possess continuous first partial derivatives. Q= L X;2, (5)

Such a system may be studied by means of phase space-

132 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 20

and if e1, , eM are the roots of the equations absolute-value signs denote distance in phase space.

Because r is continuously deformed as t varies, every

(6) pomt _ on the trajectory through Po is also a limit point

L (b;i+bi ;)ei = c;,

i of P(t), and the set of limit points of P(t) forms a tra

jectory, or a set of trajectories, called the limiting tra

it follows from (4) that jectories of P(t). A limiting trajectory is obviously con

tained within R in its entirety.

dQ/dt= b;je;ei-L bii (X;-e;)(Xi- ei), (7) If a trajectory is contained among its own limiting

i,i i,i

trajectories, it will be called central; otherwise it will be

The right side of (7) vanishes only on the surface of called noncentral. A central trajectory passes arbitrarily

an ellipsoid E, and is positive only in the interior of E. closely arbitrarily often to any point through which it

The surfaces of constant Q are concentric spheres. If S has previously passed, and, in this sense at least, sepa

denotes a particular one of these spheres whose interior rate sufliciently long segments of a central trajectory

R contains the ellipsoid E, it is evident that each tra are statistically similar. A noncentral trajectory remains

jectory eventually becomes trapped within R. a certain distance away from any point through which

it has previously passed. It must approach its entire set

of limit points asymptotically, although it need not

3. The instability of nonperiodic flow approach any particular limiting trajectory asymptoti

In this section we shall establish one of the most cally. Its instantaneous distance from its closest limit

important properties of deterministic nonperiodic flow, point is therefore a transient quantity, which becomes

namely, its instability with respect to modifications of arbitrarily small as t-+ oo.

small amplitude. We shall find it convenient to do this A trajectory P(t) will be called stable al a point P(t1 )

by identifying the solutions of the governing equations if any other trajectory passing sufliciently close to P(t1)

with trajectories in phase space. We shall use such at time t1 remains close to P(t) as t-+ oo; i.e., P(t) is

symbols as P(t) (variable argument) to denote trajec stable at P(t 1 ) if for any E>O there exists a (E,ti )>O

tories, and such symbols as Por P(t0) (no argument or such that if IP1(t 1)-P(t1)l< and l2>t1, IP1(t2)

constant argument) to denote points, the latter symbol - P(t2) 1 < E. Otherwise P(t) will be called unstable at

denoting the specific point through which P(t) passes P(t 1). Because r is continuously deformed as t varies,

at time t0 a trajectory which is stable at one point is stable at every

We shall <leal with a phase space r in which a unique point, and will be called a stable trajectory. A trajectory

trajectory passes through each point, and where the u 1: stable at one point is unstable at every point, and

passage of time defines a continuous deformation of any w1ll be called an unstable trajectory. In the special case

region of r into another region, so that if the points that P(t) is confined to one point, this definition of

P1(to), Pito), approach Po(lo) as a limit, the points stability coincides with the familiar concept of stability

P1 (to+T), Pito+T), must approach Po(to+T) as a of steady flow.

limit. We shall furthermore require that the trajectories A stable trajectory P(t) will be called uniformlv stable

be uniformly bounded as t-+ oo; that is, there must be if the distance within which a neighboring trjectory

a bounded region R, such that every trajectory ulti must approach a point P(t1 ), in order to be certain of

mately remains with R. Our- procedure is influenced by remaining close to P(t) as t-+ oo, itself possesses a

the work of Birkhoff (1927) on dynamical systems, but positive lower bound as /1-+ oo; i.e., P(t) is uniformly

differs in that Birkhoff was concerned mainly with con stable if for any E>O there exists a (e)>O and a time

servative systems. A rather detailed treatment of dy lo(E) such that if t 1>to and IP1(t1)-P(t1)J < and

namical systems has been given by Nemytskii and t2>t1, IP1(/2)-P(t2)! <e. A limiting trajectory P0 (t) of

Stepanov (1960), and rigorous proofs of sorne of the a uniformly stable trajectory P(t) must be uniformly

theorems which we shall present are to be found in stable itself, since all trajectories passing sufliciently

that source. close to Po(t) must pass arbitrarily close to sorne point

We shall first classify the trajectories in three different of P(t) and so must remain close to P(t), and hence to

manners, namely, according to the absence or presence Po(t), as t-+ oo.

of transient properties, according to the stability or Since each point lies on a unique trajectory, any

'instability of the trajectories with respect to small trajectory passing through a point through which it has

modifications, and according to the presence or absence previously passed must continue to repeat its past be

of periodic behavior. havior, and so must be periodic. A trajectory P(t) will

Since any trajectory P(t) is bounded, it must possess be called quasi-periodic if for sorne arbitrarily large

at least one limit point P0 , a point which it approaches time interval T, P(t+T) ultimately remains arbitrarily

arbitrarily closely arbitrarily often. More precisely, Po is close to P(t), i.e., P(t) is quasi-periodic if for any e> O

a limit point of P(t) if for any E>O and any time t1 there and for any time interval To, there exists a T(e,To)>To

exists a time '2(E,ti)>t1 such that IP(t2)-Pol <E. Here and a time t1(e,ro) such that if t2>t 1, 1 P(t2+T)- P(t2) 1

MARCH 1963 EDWARD N. LORENZ 133

< . Periodic trajectories are special cases of quasi if it is stable at all, its very stability is one of its tran

periodic trajectories. sient properties, which tends to die out as time pro

A trajectory which is not quasi-periodic will be called gresses. In view of the impossibility of measuring initial

nonperiodic. If P(t) is nonperiodic, P(t1+r) may be conditions precisely, and thereby distinguishing between

arbitrarily close to P(t1) for sorne time t 1 and sorne a central trajectory and a nearby noncentral trajectory,

arbitrarily large time interval r, but, if this is so, P(t+r) all nonperiodic trajectories are effectively unstable from

cannot remain arbitrarily close to P(t) as t---* oo. Non the point of view of practica! prediction.

periodic trajectories are of course representations of

deterministic nonperiodic flow, and form the principal 4. Numerical integration of nonconservative sys

subject of this paper. tems

Periodic trajectories are obviously central. Quasi The theorems of the last section can be of importance

periodic central trajectories include multiple periodic only if nonperiodic solutions of equations of the type

trajectories with incommensurable periods, while quasi considered actually exist. Since statistically stationary

periodic noncentral trajectories include those which nonperiodic functions of time are not easily described

approach periodic trajectories asymptotically. Non analytically, particular nonperiodic solutions can prob

periodic trajectories may be central or noncentral. ably be found most readily by numerical procedures. In

We can now establish the theorem that a trajectory this section we shall examine a numerical-integration

with a stable limiting trajectory is quasi-periodic. For procedure which is especially applicable to systems of

if P0(t) is a limiting trajectory of P(t), two distinct equations of the form (4). In a later section we shall use

points P(t1) and P(t1+r), with r arbitrarily large, may this procedure to determine a nonperiodic solution of a

be found arbitrary close to any point Po(to). Since Po(t) simple set of equations.

is stable, P(t) and P(t+r) must remain arbitrarily To solve (1) numerically we may choose an initial

close to P0(t+to-t1), and hence to each other, as t---t oo, time t0 and a time increment lit, and let

and P(t) is quasi-periodic.

It follows immediately that a stable central trajectory X;,n = X;(to+nlit). (8)

is quasi-periodic, or, equivalently, that a nonperiodic We then introduce the auxiliary approximations

central trajectory is unstable.

The result has far-reaching consequences when the X;<n+il = X;,n+F;(Pn)lit, (9)

system being considered is an observable nonperiodic X;<<n+2)) = X;<n+i)+F;(P cn+l))lit, (10)

system whose future state we may desire to predict. It

implies that two states differing by imperceptible where P n and P cn+l) are the points whose coordinates are

amounts may eventually evolve into two considerably (X1,n, ' ,XM,n) and (X1(n+1),' ,XM(n+l)).

different states. If, then, there is any error whatever in

observing the present state-and in any real system The simplest numerical procedure for obtaining

such errors seem inevitable-an acceptable prediction approximate solutions of (1) is the forward-difference

of an instantaneous state in the distant future may procedure,

well be impossible. Xi,n+1 = Xi(n+I), (11)

As for noncentral trajectories, it follows that a uni In many instances better approximations to the solu

formly stable noncentral trajectory is quasi-periodic, or, tions of (1) may be obtained by a centered-difference

equivalently, a nonperiodic noncentral trajectory is not procedure

uniformly stable. The possibility of a nonperiodic non

central trajectory which is stable but not uniformly

stable still exists. To the writer, at least, such trajec

This procedure is unsuitable, however, when the deter

tories, although possible on paper, do not seem charac ministic nature of (1) is a matter of concern, since the

teristic of real hydrodynamical phenomena. Any claim

values of X1,n, , XM,n do not uniquely determine the

that atmospheric flow, for example, is represented by a

values of X1,n+1, '., XM,n+l

trajectory of this sort would lead to the improbable A procedure which largely overcomes the disadvant

conclusion that we ought to master long-range fore ages of both the forward-difference and centered-differ

casting as soon as possible, because, the longer we wait, ence procedures is the double-approximation procedure,

the more diflicult our task will become. defined by the relation

In summary, we have shown that, subject to the

conditions of uniqueness, continuity, and boundedness X;,n+1 = X;,n+[F;(Pn)+F;(P <n+1J)]M (13)

prescribed at the beginning of this section, a central

Here the coefficient of lit is an approximation to the time

trajectory, which in a certain sense is free of transient

derivative of X; at time to+(n+)M From (9) and

properties, is unstable if it is nonperiodic. A noncentral

(10), it follows that (13) may be rewritten

trajectory, which is characterized by transient prop

erties, is not uniformly stable if it is nonperiodic, and, X;,n+1 = (X.,n+X;n+2)i ). (14)

134 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 20

A convenient scheme for automatic computation is the totically approaching a steady state. A similar result

successive evaluation of X,cn+1>, X,n+2ll, and Xi,n+i holds when the double-approximation procedure (14) is

according to (9), (10) and (14). We have used this applied to a conservative system.

procedure in all the computations described in this

study. 5. The convection equations of Saltzman

In phase space a numerical solution of (1) must be

represented by a jumping particle rather than a con In this section we shall introduce a system of three

tinuously moving particle. Moreover, if a digital com ordinary differential equations whose solutions afford

puter is instructed to represent each number in its the simplest example of deterministic nonperiodic flow

memory by a preassigned fixed number of bit., only of which the writer is aware. The system is a simplifica

certain discrete points in phase space will ever be oc tion of one derived by Saltzman (1962) to study finite

cupied. If the numerical solution is bounded, repetitions amplitude convection. Although our present interest is

must eventually occur, so that, strictly speaking, every in the nonperiodic nature of its solutions, rather than

numerical solution is periodic. In practice this considera in its contributions to the convection problem' we shall

tion may be disregarded, if the number of different describe its physical background briefly.

possible states is far greater than the number of itera Rayleigh (1916) studied the flow occurring in a layer

tions ever likely to be performed. The necessity for ! fluid of uniform depth H, when the temperature

repetition could be avoided altogether by the somewhat d1fference between the upper and lower surfaces is

uneconomical procedure of letting the precision of maintained at a constant value T. Such a system

computation increase as n increases. possesses a steady-state solution in which there is no

Consider now numerical solutions of equatio:ns (4), motion, and the temperature vares linearly with depth

obtained by the forward-difference procedure (11). For If this solution is unstable, convection should develop'.

such solutions, In the case where all motions are parallel to the

x- z-plane, and no variations in the direction of the

Q ,.+1 = Q,.+(dQ/dt),. t+ I; Fl(P,.)M. (15) y-axis occur, the governing equations may be written

i (see Saltzman, 1962)

Let S' be any surface of constant Q whose interior R' a(ip,'i12,f;) a0

contains the ellipsoid E where dQ/dt vanishes, and let ---+vv"it,+ga-, (17)

S be any surface of constant Q whose interior R con a(x,z) ax

tains S'. a a(ip,0) T aip

Since I; F,2 and dQ/dt both possess upper bounds in --8=---+--+K'i120, (18)

R', we may choose t so small that Pn+i lies in R if iJt iJ (x,z) H ax

P,. lies in R'. Likewise, since F;,2 possesses an upper

bound and dQ/dt possesses a negative upper bound in Here ip is a stream function for the two-dimensional

R-R', we may choose t so small that Q,.+1 <Q,. if P,. motion, 0 is the departure of temperature from that

les in R-R'. Hence t may be chosen so small that any occurring in the state of no convection, and the con

jumping particle which has entered R remains trapped stants g, a, v, and K denote, respectively, the acceleration

within R, and the numerical solution does not blow up. of gravity, the coefficient of thermal expansion, the

A blow-up may still occur, however, if initially the kinematic viscosity, and the thermal conductivity. The

particle is exterior to R. problem is most tractable when both the upper and

Consider now the double-approximation procedure lower boundaries are taken to be free, in which case

(14). The previous arguments imply not only that ip and 'i12ip vanish at both boundaries.

P <n+i) les within R if P,. lies within R, but also that Rayleigh found that fields of motion of the forro

Pn+2ll lies within R if Pcn+ll lies within R. Since the ip=ipo sin (1raH-1x) sin (1rH-1z), (19)

region R is convex, it follows that Pn+i, as given by (14),

lies within R if Pn lies within R. Hence if t is chosen so 0=00 cos (1raH- x) sin (1rH- z),

1 1

(20)

small that the forward-difference procedure does not would develop if the quantity

blow up, the double-approximation procedure also does

not blow up. Ra= gaH3Tv-1K-1, (21)

We note in passing that if we apply the forward now called the Rayleigh number, exceeded a critica! value

difference procedure to a conservative system where

dQ/dt=O everywhere, R c= 1r 4a-2(1+a2)3 (22)

The minimum value of R e, namely 2h4/4, occurs

Qn+1 = Q,.+L Ff(Pn)t2 (16) when a 2 = .

i

Saltzman (1962) derived a set of ordinary differential

In this case, for any fixed choice of t the numerical equations by expanding ip and 0 in double Fourier series

solution ultimately goes to infinity, unless it is asymp- in x and z, with functions of t alone for coefficients, and

MARCH 1963 EDWARD N. LORENZ 135

substituting these series into (17) and (18). He arranged will convert them to this form. One of the simplest of

the right-hand sides of the resulting equations in double these is the transformation

Fourier-series form, by replacing products of trigono

metric functions of x (or z) by sums of trigonometric X'=X, Y'=Y, Z'=Z-r-u. (28)

functions, and then equated coe:fficients of similar func

Solutions of (25)-(27) therefore remain bounded within

tions of x and z. He then reduced the resulting infinite

system to a finite system by omitting reference to all a region Ras r - oo, and the general results of Sections

but a specified finite set of functions of t, in the manner 2, 3 and 4 apply to these equations.

The stability of a solution X(r), Y(r), Z(r) may be

proposed by the writer (1960).

He then obtained time-dependent solutions by nu formally investigated by considering the behavior of

merical integration. In certain cases all except three of small superposed perturbations Xo(r), yo(r), zo(r). Such

the dependent variables eventually tended to zero, and perturbations are temporarily governed by the linear

these three variables underwent irregular, apparently ized equations

nonperiodic fluctuations.

These same solutions would have been obtained if the

series had at the start been truncated to include a total

of three terms. Accordingly, in this study we shall let

Xo "

:

-u

[ ] = [ (r Z)

;

u

-1

X

-xJ[;:J

-b Zo

(29)

a(l+a 2)-1K-1,Jt=Xv'2 sin (1raH- 1x) sin (1rH- 1z), (23) Since the coefficients in (29) vary with time, unless

the basic state X, Y, Z is a steady-state solution of

1rRc- 1RaAY--10 = Yv'2 cos (1raH- 1x) sin (1rH- 1z) (25)-(27), a general solution of (29) is not feasible.

-z sin (21rH-1z), (24) However, the variation of the volume V0 of a small

region in phase space, as each point in the region is

where X, Y, and Z are functions of time alone. When displaced in accordance with (25)-(27), is determined

expressions (23) and (24) are substituted into (17) and by the diagonal sum of the matrix of coe:fficients;

(18), and trigonometric terms other than those occurring specifically

in (23) and (24) are omitted, we obtain the equations

(30)

X= -uX+uY, (25)

This is perhaps most readily seen by visualizing the

Y=-XZ+rX-Y, (26) motion in phase space as the flow of a fluid, whose

divergence is

z= XY -bZ. (27)

Here a dot denotes a derivative with respect to the

ax aY az

-+-+-= -(u+b+l). (31)

dimensionless time r = 1r2H-2 (1+a2)Kt, while u=K-111 is ax aY az

the Prandtl number, r=R c-1R0 , and b=4(1+a2)-1

Except for multiplicative constants, our variables X, Y, Hence each small volume shrinks to zero as r - oo, at

and Z are the same as Saltzman's variables A, D, and a rate independent of X, Y, and Z. This does not imply

G. Equations (25), (26), and (27) are the convection that each small volume shrinks to a point; it may simply

equations whose solutions we shall study. become flattened into a surface. It follows that the

In these equations X is proportional to the intensity volume of the region initially enclosed by the surface S

of the convective motion, while Y is proportional to the shrinks to zero at this same rate, so that ali trajectories

temperature difference between the ascending and de ultimately become confined to a specific subspace

scending currents, similar signs of X and Y denoting having zero volume. This subspace contains all those

that warm fluid is rising and cold fluid is descending. trajectories which lie entirely within R, and so contains

The variable Z is proportional to the distortion of the all central trajectories.

vertical temperature profile from linearity, a positive Equations (25)-(27) possess the steady-state solution

value indicating that the strongest gradients occur near X= Y= Z=O, representing the state of no convection.

the boundaries. With this basic solution, the characteristic equation of

Equations (25)-(27) may give realistic results when the matrix in (29) is

the Rayleigh number is slightly supercritical, but their

solutions cannot be expected to resemble those of (17) [X+b][x2 +(u+l) X+u(l-r)]=O. (32)

and (18) when strong convection occurs, in view of the

This equation has three real roots when r>O; all are

extreme truncation.

negative when r< 1, but one is positive when r> 1. The

criterion for the onset of convection is therefore r=1,

6. Applications of linear theory or R,,= Rc, in agreement with Rayleigh's result.

Although equations (25)-(27), as they stand, do not When r>1, equations (25)-(27) possess two additional

have the form of (4), a number of linear transformations steady-state solutions X=Y=.Jb(r-1), Z=r-1.

136 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VoLUME 20

For either of these solutions, the characteristic equation 7. Numerical integration of the convection equa-

of the matrix in (29) is tions

A3 +(o+b+ l)A2 +(r+u)b\+2ub(r-1)=0. (33) To obtain numerical solutions of the convection equa-

tions, we must choose numerical values for the con-

This equation possesses one real negative root and two stants. Following Saltzman (1962), we shall let u=10

complex conjugate roots when r> 1; the complex con- and a2=, so that b = 8/3. The critical Rayleigh number

jugate roots are pure imaginary if the product o the for instability of steady convection then occurs when

coefficients of \2 and A equals the constant term,. or r = 470/19= 24.74.

r = u(u+b+3)(u-b-1)- 1 (34) We shall choose the slightly supercritical value r= 28.

The states of steady convection are then represented by

This is the critical value of r for the instability of steady the points (6v'2, 6v'2, 27) and (-6v'2, -6v'2, 27) in phase

convection. Thus if u<b+1, no positive valu.e of r space, while the state of no convection corresponds to

satisfies (34), and steady convection is always stable, the origin (0,0,0).

but if u> b+1, steady convection is unstable for suffi- We have used the double-approximation procedure

ciently high Rayleigh numbers. This result of course for numerical integration, defined by (9), (10), and (14).

applies only to idealized convection governed by (25)- The value Lh=0.01 has been chosen for the dimension-

(27), and not to the solutions of the partial differential less time increment. The computations have been

equations (17) and (18). performed on a Royal McBee LGP-30 electronic com-

The presence of complex roots of (34) shows that if

unstable steady convection is disturbed, the motion will

oscillate in intensity. What happens when the clisturb- TABLE 2. Numerical solution of the convection equations

Values of X, Y, Z are given at every iteration N for which Z

anees become large is not revealed by linear theory. To possesses a relative maxirnurn, for the first 6000 iterations.

investigate finite-amplitude convection, and to study

the subspace to which trajectories are ultimately con- N X y z N X y z

fined, we turn to numerical integration.

0045 0174 0055 0483 3029 0117 0075 0352

0107 -0091 -0083 0287 3098 0123 0076 0365

0168 -0092 -0084 0288 3171 0134 0082 0383

TABLE l. Nurnerica! olution of the convection equations. 0230 -0092 -0084 0289 3268 0155 0069 0435

Values of X, Y, Z are given at every fifth iteration N, for the 0292 -0092 -0083 0290 3333 -0114 -0079 0342

first 160 iterations. 0354 -0093 -0083 0292 3400 -0117 -0077 0350

0416 -0093 -0083 0293 3468 -0125 -0083 0361

0478 -0094 -0082 0295 3541 -0129 -0073 0378

N X y z 0540 -0094 -0082 0296 3625 -0146 -0074 0413

0602 -0095 -0082 0298 3695 0127 0079 0370

0000 0000 0010 0000 0664 -0096 -0083 0300 3772 0136 0072 0394

0005 0004 0012 0000 0726 -0097 -0083 0302 3853 -0144 -0077 0407

0010 0009 0020 0000 0789 -0097 -0081 0304 3926 0129 0072 0380

0015 0016 0036 0002 0851 -0099 -0083 0307 4014 0148 0068 0421

0020 0030 0066 0007 0914 -0100 -0081 0309 4082 -0120 -0074 0359

0025 0054 0115 0024 0977 -0100 -0080 0312 4153 -0129 -0078 0375

0030 0093 0192 0074 1040 -0102 -0080 0315 4233 -0144 -0082 0404

0035 0150 0268 0201 1103 -0104 -0081 0319 4307 0135 0081 0385

0040 0195 0234 0397 1167 -0105 -0079 0323 4417 -0162 -0069 0450

0045 0174 0055 0483 1231 -0107 -0079 0328 4480 0106 0081 0324

0050 0097 -0067 0415 1295 -0111 -0082 0333 4544 0109 0082 0329

0055 0025 -0093 0340 1361 -0111 -0077 0339 4609 0110 0080 0334

0060 -0020 -0089 0298 1427 -0116 -0079 0347 4675 0112 0076 0341

0065 -0046 -0084 0275 1495 -0120 -0077 0357 4741 0118 0081 0349

0070 -0061 -0083 0262 1566 -0125 -0072 0371 4810 0120 0074 0360

0075 -0070 -0086 0256 1643 -0139 -0077 0396 4881 0130 0081 0376

0080 -0077 -0091 0255 1722 0140 0075 0401 4963 0141 0068 0406

0085 -0084 -0095 0258 1798 -0135 -0072 0391 5035 -0133 -0081 0381

0090 -0089 -0098 0266 1882 0146 0074 0413 5124 -0151 -0076 0422

0095 -0093 -0098 0275 1952 -0127 -0078 0370 5192 0119 0075 0358

0100 -0094 -0093 0283 2029 -0135 -0070 0393 5262 0129 0083 0372

0105 -0092 -0086 0297 2110 0146 0083 0408 5340 0140 0079 0397

0110 -0088 -0079 0286 2183 -0128 -0070 0379 5419 -0137 -0067 0399

0115 -0083 -0073 0281 2268 -0144 -0066 0415 5495 0140 0081 0394

0120 -0078 -0070 0273 2337 0126 0079 0368 5576 -0141 -0072 0405

0125 -0075 -0071 0264 2412 0137 0081 0389 5649 0135 0082 0384

0130 -0074 -0075 0257 2501 -0153 -0080 0423 5752 0160 0074 0443

0135 -0076 -0080 0252 2569 0119 0076 0357 5816 -0110 -0081 0332

0140 -0079 -0087 0251 2639 0129 0082 0371 5881 -0113 -0082 0339

0145 -0083 -0093 0254 2717 0136 0070 0395 5948 -0114 -0075 0346

0150 -0088 -0098 0262 2796 -0143 -0079 0402

0155 -0092 -0099 0271 2871 0134 0076 0388

0160 -0094 -0096 0281 2962 -0152 -0072 0426

MARCH 1963 EDWARD N. LORENZ 137

tion, aside from output time, is required.

For initial conditions we have chosen a slight de

parture from the state of no convection, namely (0,1,0).

Table 1 has been prepared by the computer. It gives the

values of N (the number of iterations), X, Y, and Z at

everv fifth iteration for the first 160 iterations. In the

printed output (but not in the computations) the values

of X, Y, and Z are multiplied by ten, and then only ,ooovvvVVVVV\J\j

)\ J\ \] \,ooo

Thus the states of steady convection would appear as

0084, 0084, 0270 and -0084, -0084, 0270, while the

state of no convection would appear as 0000, 0000, 0000. )\ )\)\ )\)\ }\ )\ '

The initial instability of the state of rest is evident. All

three variables grow rapidly, as the sinking cold fluid

is replaced by even colder fluid from above, and the

2000

\J Tl

rising warm fluid by warmer fluid from below, so that by ' 1000

step 35 the strength of the convection far exceeds that FIG. l. Numerical solution of the convection equations. Graph

of steady convection. Then Y diminishes as the warm of Y as a function of time for the first 1000 iterations (upper

curve), second 1000 iterations (middle curve), and third 1000

fluid is carried over the top of the convective cells, so iteratons (lower curve).

that by step 50, when X and Y have opposite signs,

warm fluid is descending and cold fluid is ascending. The

motion thereupon ceases and reverses its direction, as

indicatcd by the negative values of X following step 60.

By step 85 the system has reached a state not far from

that of stcady convection. Between steps 85 and 150 it

executes a complete oscillation in its intensity, the

slight amplification being almost indetectable.

The subsequent behavior of the system is illustrated

in Fig. 1, which shows the behavior of Y for the first

3000 iterations. After reaching its early peak near step

35 and then approaching equilibrium near step 85, it

undergoes systematic amplified oscillations until near

step 1650. At this point a critica! state is reached, and

thereafter Y changes sign at seemingly irregular inter

vals, reaching sometimes one, sometimes two, and sorne

times three or more extremes of one sign before changing

sign again.

Fig. 2 shows the projections on the X-Y- and Y-Z ----- -------t---------------Y

corresponding to iterations 1400-1900. The states of

steady convection are denoted by C and C'. The first

portion of the trajectory spirals outward from the

vicinity of C', as the oscillations about the state of

steady convection, which have been occurring since step

85, continue to grow. Eventually, near step 1650, it

crosses the X-Z-plane, and is then deflected toward the

neighborhood of C. It temporarily spirals about C, but

crosses the X-Z-plane after one circuit, and returns to

the neighborhood of C', where it soon joins the spiral

over which it has previously traveled. Thereafter it

crosses from one spiral to the other at irregular intervals.

Fig. 3, in which the coordinates are Y and Z, is based X

FIG. 2. Numerical solution of the convection equations.

upon the prnted values of X, Y, and Z at every fifth Projections on the X-Y-plane and the Y-Z-plane in phase space

iteration for the first 6000 iteratons. These values deter of the segment of the trajectory extending from teration 1400 to

iteration 1900. Numerals "14," "15," etc., denote positions at

mine X as a smooth single-valued function of Y and Z iterations 1400, 1500, etc. States of steady convection are denoted

over much of the range of Y and Z; they determine X by C and C'.

138 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VoLUME 20

400

200

y

-200 o 200

FrG. 3. Isopleths of X as a function of Y and Z (thin solid curves), and isopleths of the lower of two

values of X, where two values occur (dashed curves), for approximate surfaces formed by ali points on

limiting trajectories. Heavy solid curve, and extensions as dotted curves, indicate natural boundaries of

surfaces.

as one of two smooth single-valued functions over the holes near C and C' also represent regions which cannot

remainder of the range. In Fig. 3 the thin solid lines are be occupied after they have once been abandoned.

isopleths of X, and where two values of X exist, the Returning to Fig. 2, we find that the trajectory ap

dashed lines are isopleths of the lower value. Thus, parently leaves one spiral only after exceeding sorne

within the limits of accuracy of the printed values, the critica! distance from the center. Moreover, the extent

trajectory is confined to a pair of surfaces which appear to which this distance is exceeded appears to determine

to merge in the lower portion of Fig. 3. The spira.l about the point at which the next spiral is entered; this in turn

C lies in the upper surface, while the spiral about C' lies seems to determine the number of circuits to be executed

in the lower surface. Thus it is possible for the tra.jectory before changing spirals again.

to pass back and forth from one spiral to the other It therefore seems that sorne single feature of a given

without intersecting itself. circuit should predict the same feature of the following

Additional numerical solutions indicate that other circuit. A suitable feature of this sort is the maximum

trajectories, originating at points well removed from value of Z, which occurs when a circuit is nearly com

these surfaces, soon meet these surfaces. The surfaces pleted. Table 2 has again been prepared by the com

therefore appear to be composed of all points lying on puter, and shows the values of X, Y, and Z at only those

limiting trajectories_ iterations N for which Z has a relative maximum. The

Because the origin represents a steady state, no tra succession of circuits about C and C' is indicated by the

jectory can pass through it. However, two trajectories succession of positive and negative values of X and Y.

emanate from it, i.e., approach it asymptotically as Evidently X and Y change signs following a maximum

r --t - oo. The heavy solid curve in Fig. 3, and its ex which exceeds sorne critical value printed as about 385.

tensions as dotted curves, are formed by these two tra Fig. 4 has been prepared from Table 2. The abscissa

ject01:ies. Trajectories passing close to the origin will is M,,, the value of the nth maximum of Z, while the

tend to follow the heavy curve, but will not cross it, so ordinate is Mn+i, the value of the following maximum.

that the heavy curve forms a natural boundary to the Each point represents a pair of successive values of Z

region which a trajectory can ultimately occupy. The taken from Table 2. Within the limits of the round-off

MARCH 1963 EDWARD N. LORENZ 139

in tabulating Z, there is a precise two-to-one relation The two three-phase sequences differ qualitatively in

between Mn and Mn+l The initial maximum M 1 483 = that the former possesses two numbers, and the latter

is shown as if it had followed a maximum M0 385, = only one number, exceeding . Thus the trajectory corre

since maxima near 385 are followed by close approaches sponding to the former makes two circuits about C,

to the origin, and then by exceptionally large maxima. followed by one about C' (or vice versa). The trajectory

It follows that an investigator, unaware of the nature corresponding to the latter makes three circuits about C,

of the governing equations, could formulate an empirical followed by three about C', so that actually only Z

prediction scheme from the "data" pictured in Figs. 2 vares in three phases, while X and Y vary in six.

and 4. From the value of the most recent maximum of Now consider a sequence where M0 is not a rational

Z, values at future maxima may be obtained by repeated fraction. In this case (36) shows that Mn+k cannot equal

applications of Fig. 4. Values of X, Y, and Z between

maxima of Z may be found from Fig. 2, by interpolating

between neighboring curves. Of course, the accuracy of Mn+I

exactness of Figs. 2 and 4, and, as we shall see, by the

accuracy with which the initial values of X, Y, and Z 450

are observed.

Sorne of the implications of Fig. 4 are revealed by

considering an idealized two-to-one correspondence be '

tween successive members of sequences M0, M1, , 400 '

f

consisting of numbers between zero and one. These . ..

sequences satisfy the relations ....

.,

Mn+1 = 2Mn if Mn< "

Mn+1 is undefined if Mn = (35)

Mn+1 = 2-2Mn if Mn>.

peated applications of (35) that m any particular 300 '"' 400 4,0 Mn

(abscissa) and subsequent relative maximum of Z (ordinate)

Mn = mn 2 nMo, (36) occurring during the first 6000 iterations.

Consider first a sequence where M0 =u/2P, where u is

odd. In this case Mp-l = , and the sequence terminates.

These sequences form a denumerable set, and corre

spond to the trajectories which score direct hits upon the

state of no convection.

Next consider a sequence where M0 = u/2Pv, where u

and vare relatively prime odd numbers. Then if k>O,

MP+l+k = uk/v, where Uk and vare relatively prime and

Uk is even. Since for any vthe number of proper fractions

uk/vis finite, repetitions must occur, and the sequence 0.5

is periodic. These sequences also form a denumerable

set, and correspond to periodic trajectories.

The periodic sequences having a given number of

distinct values, or phases, are readily tabulated. In

particular there are a single one-phase, a single two

phase, and two three-phase sequences, namely,

2/3, , o

2/5, 4/5, o 0.5

2/7, 4/7, 6/7,

FIG. 5. The function Mn+1 = 2M n if Mn <, M n+ i=2-2Mn if

2/9, 4/9, 8/9, Mn> , serving as an idealization of the locus of points in Fig. 4.

140 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 20

quences, which form a nondenumerable set, may con

ceivably approach periodic sequences asymptotically Vo(r1) = 0.00007 Vo(ro). (38)

and be quasi-periodic, or they may be nonperiodic. Two particles separated from each other in a suitable

Finally, consider two sequences M 0, M1, and direction can therefore come together very rapidly,and

Mo', Mi', , where Mo'=Mo+e. Then for a given k, appear to merge.

if e is sufficiently small, M k ' = M k2 ke. All sequences It would seem, then, that the two surfaces merely

are therefore unstable with respect to small modifi.ca appear to merge, and remain distinct surfaces. Following

tions. In particular,all periodic sequences are unstable, these surfaces along a path parallel to a trajectory,and

and no other sequences can approach them asymptoti circling Cor C',we see that each surface is really a pair

cally. All sequences except a set of measure zero are of surfaces, so that, where they appear to merge, there

therefore nonperiodic, and correspond to nonperiodic are really four surfaces. Continuing this process for

trajectories. another circuit, we see tbat there are really eight sur

Returning to Fig. 4, we see that periodic sequences faces, etc., and we fi.nally conclude that there is an

analogous to those tabulated above can be found. They infinite complex of surfaces, each extremely close to one

are given approximately by or the other of two merging surfaces.

398, , The infi.nite set of values at which a line parallel to the

X-axis intersects these surfaces may be likened to the

377,410, , set of all numbers between zero and one whose decimal

369,391,414, expansions (or sorne other expansions besides binary)

362, 380, 419, contain only zeros and ones. This set is plainly non

denumerable, in view of its correspondence to the set of

The trajectories possessing these or other periodic se

all numbers between zero and one, expressed in binary.

quences of maxima are presumably periodic or quasi

Nevertheless it forms a set of measure zero. The se

periodic themselves.

quence of ones and zeros corresponding to a particular

The above sequences are temporarily approached in

surface contains a history of the trajectories lying in that

the numerical solution by sequences beginning at itera

surface, a one or zero immediately to the right of the

tions 5340, 4881, 3625, and 3926. Since the nurnerical

decimal point indicating that the last circuit was about

solution eventually departs from each of these se

C or C', respectively, a one or zero in second place

quences, each is presumably unstable.

giving the same information about the next to the last

More generally, if M n' = M n+ e, and if e is sufficiently

circuit, etc. Repeating decimal expansions represent

small,M n+/ = Mn+k+Ae, where A is the product of the periodic or quasi-periodic trajectories, and, since they

slopes of the curve in Fig. 4 at the points whose abscissas define rational fractions, they form a denumerable set.

are Mn, , Mn+k-I Since the curve apparently has a If one first visualizes this infinite complex of surfaces,

slope whose magnitude exceeds unity everywhere, ali

it should not be difficult to picture nonperiodic deter

sequences of niaxima, and hence ali trajectories, are ministic trajectories embedded in these surfaces.

unstable. In particular, the periodic trajectories, whose

sequences of maxima form a denumerable set, are un

stable, and only exceptional trajectories, having the

8. Conclusion

same sequences of maxima,can approach them asymp Certain mechanically or thermally forced noncon

totically. The remaining trajectories, whose sequences servative hydrodynamical systems may exhibit either

of maxima form a nondenumerable set, therefore repre periodic or irregular behavior when there is no obviously

sent deterministic nonperiodic flow. related periodicity or irregularity in the forcing process.

These conclusions have been based upon a fmite seg Both periodic and nonperiodic flow are observed in sorne

ment of a numerically determined solution. They cannot experimental models when the forcing process is held

be regarded as mathematically proven, even though the constant, within the limits of experimental control.

evidence for them is strong. One apparent contradiction Sorne fi.nite systems of ordinary differential equations

requires further examination. designed to represent these hydrodynamical systems

It is difficult to reconcile the merging of two surfaces, possess periodic analytic solutions when the forcing is

one containing each spiral, with the inability of two strictly constant. Other such systems have yielded 11011-

trajectories to merge. It is not difficult, however, to periodic numerical solutions.

explain the apparent merging of the surfaces. At two A fi.nite system of ordinary differential equations

times ro and r 1, the volumes occupied by a specified set representing forced dissipative flow often has the prop

of particles satisfy the relation erty that all of its solutions are ultimately confi.ned

within the same bounds. We have studied in detail the

Vo ( r1) = e-Cu+b+ Jl c,,-,o) Vo(ro), (37)

properties of solutions of systems of this sort. Our

according to (30). A typical circuit about C or C' re principal results concern the instability of nonperiodic

quires about 70 iterations, so that, for such a circuit, soluti01;1s. A nonperiodic solution with no transient com-

MARCH 1963 EDWARD N. LORENZ 141

ponent must be unstablc, in the sense that solutions analogues have not occurred during this period, sorne

temporarily approximating it do not continue to do so. accurate very-long-range prediction scheme, using ob

A nonperiodic solution with a transient component is servations at present available, may exist. But, if it

sometimes stable, but in this case its stability is one of does exist, the atmosphere will acquire a quasi-periodic

its transient properties, which tends to die out. behavior, never to be lost, once an analogue occurs. This

To verify the existence of deterministic nonperiodic quasi-periodic behavior need not be established, though,

flow, we have obtained numerical solutions of a system even if very-long-range forecasting is feasible, if the

of three ordinary differential equations designed to variety of possible atmospheric states is so immense

represent a convective process. These equations possess that analogues need never occur. It should be noted

three steady-state solutions and a denumerably infinite that these conclusions do not depend upon whether or

set of periodic solutions. Ali solutions, and in particular not the atmosphere is deterministic.

the periodic solutions, are found to be unstable. The There remains the very important question as to how

remaining solutions therefore cannot in general ap long is "very-long-range." Our results do not give the

proach the periodic solutions asymptotically, and so are answer for the atmosphere; conceivably it could be a

nonperiodic. few days or a few centuries. In an idealized system,

When our results concerning the instability of non whether it be the simple convective model described

periodic flow are applied to the atmosphere, which is here, or a complicated system designed to resemble the

ostensibly nonperiodic, they indicate that prediction of atmosphere as closely as possible, the answer may be

the sufficiently distant future is impossible by any obtained by comparing pairs of numerical solutions

method, unless the present conditions are known ex having nearly identical initial conditions. In the case of

actly. In view of the inevitable inaccuracy and incom the real atmosphere, if ali other methods fail, we can

pleteness of weather observa tions, precise very-long wait for an analogue.

range forecasting would seem to be non-existent. Acknowledgments. The writer is indebted to Dr. Barry

There remains the question as to whether our results Saltzman for bringing to his attention the existence of

really apply to the atmosphere. One <loes not usually nonperiodic solutions of the convection equations.

regard the atmosphere as either deterministic or finite, Special thanks are due to Miss Ellen Fetter for handling

and the lack of periodicity is not a mathematical cer the many numerical computations and preparing the

tainty, since the atmosphere has not been observed graphical presentations of the numerical material.

forever.

The foundation of our principal result is the eventual

necessity for any bounded system of finite dimension REFERENCES

ality to come arbitrarily close to acquiring a state which Birkhoff, G. O., 1927: Dynamical systems. New York, Arner.

it has previously assumed. If the system is stable, its Math. Soc., Colloq. Pub!., 295 pp.

future development will then remain arbitrarily close Ford, L. R., 1933: Dijferential equations. New York, McGraw-Hill,

264 pp.

to its past history, and it will be quasi-periodic.

Fultz, D., R. R. Long, G. V. Owens, W. Bohan, R. Kaylor and

In the case of the atmosphere, the crucial point is J. Weil, 1959: Studies of therrnal convection in a rotating

then whether analogues must have occurred since the cylinder with sorne irnplications for large-scale atmospheric

state of the atmosphere was first observed. By ana rnotions. Meteor. Monog, 4(21), Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104 pp.

logues, we mean specifically two or more states of the Gibbs, J. W., 1902: Elementary principies in statistical meclzanics.

New .York, Scribner, 207 pp.

atmosphere, together with its environment, which re Hide, R., 1958: An experimental study of therrnal convection in

scmble each other so closely that the differences may a rotating liquid. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, (A), 250,

be ascribed to errors in observation. Thus, to be analo 441-478.

gues, two states must be closely alike in regions where Lorenz, E. N., 1960: Maxirnum simplification of the dynarnic

observations are accurate and plentiful, while they need equations. Tellus, 12, 243-254.

- - , 1962a: Sirnplified dynamic equations applied to the rotating

not be at all alike in regions where there are no observa basin experirnents. J. almos. Sci., 19, 39-51.

tions at all, whether these be regions of the atmosphere - - , 1962b: The statistical prediction of solutions of dynamic

or the environment. If, however, sorne unobserved fea equations. Proc. Internat. Symposium Numerical Weather

tures are implicit in a succession of observed states, Prediction, Tokyo, 629-635.

two successions of states must be nearly alike in order Nemytskii, V. V., and V. V. Stepanov, 1960: Qualitative t/1eory of

di.fferential equations. Princeton, Princeton Univ. Press, 523

to be analogues. pp.

If it is true that two analogues have occurred since Poincar, H., 1881: Mrnoire sur les courbes dfinies par une

atmospheric observation first began, it follows, since the quation diffrentielle. J. de Matiz., 7, 375-442.

atmosphere has not been observed to be periodic, that Rayleigh, Lord, 1916: On convective currents in a horizontal !ayer

of fluid when the higher ternperature is on the under side.

the successions of states following these analogues must

Phil. Mag., 32, 529-546.

eventually have differed, and no forecasting scheme Saltzrnan, B., 1962: Finite arnplitude free convection as an initial

could have given correct results both times. If, instead, value problern-I. J. almos. Sci., 19, 329-341.

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