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Heavy-duty Electric Vehicles Through Linear

Prediction Method

1

Mahdi Mousavi Sangdehi, Student Member, IEEE, 2K. Lakshmi Varaha Iyer, Student Member, IEEE,

3

Kaushik Mukherjee, Member, IEEE, and 4Narayan C. Kar, Senior Member, IEEE

Centre for Hybrid Automotive Research and Green Energy, University of Windsor, ON, Canada N9B 3P4

1

mousavi@uwindsor.ca, 2iyerl@uwindsor.ca, , 3kmukh@uwindsor.ca, and 4nkar@uwindsor.ca

Abstract In this paper a novel method based on linear term decisions. The short-term decisions could be either

prediction technique is proposed for short term power demand changing from one power source to the other in a HEV, or

forecasting in light and heavy-duty electric vehicles for changing the power flow among the different hybrid sources

improvement in the overall efficiency of the vehicle. The paper in an electric vehicle and/or any other control action which

also utilizes filtering of unnecessary information which would involves delays.

have been a major bottleneck in improving the methods

accuracy. The predicted demand function is fed to a wavelet

function, which apportions the share between the battery and the II. MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPED LINEAR

ultracapacitor of the considered energy management system. PREDICTION TECHNIQUE FOR LIGHT AND HEAVY DUTY

The proposed method is validated with empirical power demand ELECTRIC VEHICLES

data obtained from on road tests of both light and heavy-duty

electric vehicles through numerical investigations. A. The Linear Prediction Method

Linear prediction method is a powerful technique for

Index Terms Energy management system, heavy duty predicting time series in a time-varying environment. A power

electric vehicles, light duty electric vehicles, linear prediction, demand profile of light and heavy-duty vehicles typically

predictive control scheme, wavelet transforms.

belongs to a time-varying process. The linear prediction

model, recursively represents the time series of signal samples

I. INTRODUCTION over a time interval [4], as in (1).

The current market of light electric vehicles (cars) and

evolution of all electric heavy-duty vehicles (bus) in the y (t + T ) = a1 y (t ) + a 2 y (t T ) + ... + a m y (t (m 1)T ) (1)

market like the e-BUS12, Proterra, Astonbus, etc. has + b1u (t + T ) + b2 u (t ) + ... + bn u (t nT ) + c1e(t )

accelerated the need for advanced research and development

of energy management system (EMS) of these vehicles for Here a1, a2,..., am, b1, ..., bn, and c1 are the model coefficients,

better utilization of battery/ultracapacitor combination m is the model degree, y(t+T) is the future sample, y(t) the

considering frequent stop/start duty. Considering this type of present observation, y(t-T) and y(t-nT) are the immediate and

duty, the efficiency of these vehicles can be enhanced by nth past observations respectively, u(t) and u(t-T) are the

assisting the energy management system with pre-emptive present and immediate past inputs, respectively, and e(t) is the

knowledge of power demand which can lead to effective and present model error. In (1), if a1 =...= am = 0, the model is

efficient utilization of the vehicles powertrain. The prediction called moving average or an all-zero model (if considered as a

scheme proposed in this paper assists the energy management transfer function). If m>1 and b1 =...= bn = 0, the model is

system by forecasting the load demand based on frequently called an auto-regressive or an all-pole model. If m<1 and

updated history of the vehicle. Moreover, the real-time n<1, the model is called ARMA (auto-regressive moving

application of such prediction schemes performed at the Audi average) or the pole-zero model [5].

Research Labs to improve the fuel economy of ICE based After modeling each window the sampler advances by one

vehicles has led to the application of these schemes for light as step, thus, updating the model for the new data window.

well as heavy-duty electric vehicles. Using the knowledge of Parametric models for short term demanded power prediction

traffic ahead, the EMS in the vehicle can react to changes in are often based on (1), which is mostly a recursive process and

traffic density or speed before they happen, enhancing the predicts the demanded power at time t+T. However, if more

response time of various components and hence the efficiency time steps are required, then the process may be recessively

of a trip. Background literature obtained from [1]-[3] employed [6]. If b1 =...= bn = 0 and e(t) is ignored then (1)

illustrates that the EMS of electric (EV) and hybrid electric can be written as in (2).

vehicles (HEVs) require prediction times in the range of

y (t + T ) = a1 y (t ) + a 2 y (t T ) + ... + a m y (t (m 1)T ). (2)

seconds ahead of our interest as the problems associated with

delay due to vehicle dynamics have to be dealt with. Thus, The output is the linear combination of the present and past

short term demand prediction can be used as a tool towards samples; hence the name, linear prediction. Two steps are

improved dynamic control of these vehicles by making short- required for short term demanded power prediction using (2).

2

Measured samples value, (5) cannot be solved for any unique set of coefficients

y(t-mT) ... y(t-T) y(t-mT) ... y(t-T) because some columns in matrix are not independent of each

a1 other. Hence T. would be singular and will not have an

Arithmetic Prediction y(t+nT) inverse. This means the system of equations in (3) will have

Module Module nth next sample an infinite number of answers for the coefficients. Also, if m is

am chosen less than the required value, the number of

Model coefficients independent equations would be more than the number of un-

Fig. 1. The block diagram for short term demanded power prediction method. known variables (a1am). Such a system of equations must be

solved for the best approximation of coefficients. The best

Referring to (2), the model degree (m) must be carefully approximation for the coefficients (a1am) is to use the least

selected and the coefficients, a1,..., am, must be calculated squares error method. Generally, the least squares method is

from the modeling window. The model can be used to predict the most effective modeling process used in practice with

the demanded power for the time steps ahead. The idea of the demanded power signals. The best modeling order, m, is

short term demanded power prediction is represented in Fig. 1 suggested to be the smallest possible value which provides

[7]. Primarily, the modeling window is used to find the best sufficient and acceptable results. The best modeling window is

model for the waveform meanwhile the model parameters are the smallest window which gives acceptable results [8].

used to predict the demanded power in the future.

C. Experimental Data Acqusition of Light and Heavy Duty

B. Estimating the Coefficients of Linear Prediction Model Electric Vehicles Used in the Investigations

If the modeling error is considered, (2) can be rewritten as Section 3 of this paper illustrates measured results obtained

in (3). In order to estimate the coefficients a1, a2,..., am in (3), from an on road vehicle test performed using the laboratory

the least squares error method will be used. This error is light duty electric vehicle. The electric car uses a 7.5 hp

aluminum-rotor induction motor with a variable frequency

between the estimated value, at time t, and the measured

drive. The vehicle instrumentation layout is as shown in Fig.

value, at that same instant.

2. Also, the power demand profile of the heavy duty electric

vehicle obtained from urban dynamometer driving cycle of an

y (t + T ) = a1 y (t ) + a 2 y (t T ) + ... + a m y (t (m 1)T ) + e(t ). (3) electric bus as given in the Autonomy software is as shown in

section 3. The maximum speed achieved by the bus was 56

miles/hour and acceleration/deceleration was 1.47 mile/sec2.

In the least squares error method, the energy in the error signal

The power demand profile of the electric bus was found to

is minimized. It should be mentioned that the error is

vary slowly when compared to that of the car.

generated because the linear prediction model cannot be fitted

Hence, it can be inferred from this study that the as the load

with zero error to the waveform signal. A set of equations as

increases, in order to keep up the constant speed of the

presented in (4) is used to find the coefficients, a1 ,...,am, [8].

vehicles, acceleration has to be increased. In the process of

accelerating, the power demand has to meet by the power

[Y ] = [][A] + [E ] (4) sources. Using the linear prediction method proposed in the

paper, the power demand can be estimated before hand and the

where: energy sources can be used effectively, thus improving the

[Y ] = [y(t ) y(t T ) y (t kT )]T efficiency of the vehicle.

y (t T ) y (t 2T ) y (t mT )

y (t 2T ) y (t (m + 1))T

=

y[t (k + 1)T ] y (t (m + k )T )

a1 e(t )

a e(t T )

A= 2 E =

am e (t kT )

found by the least squares error method:

Fig. 2. Vehicle instrumentation layout. (a) Data acquisition and logging

[A] = [[] []] [] [Y ]

T 1 T notebook A. (b) Fluke 434 Power Quality Analyser B. (c) Tektronix

(5) TPS2024 digital storage oscilloscope C.

3

Power Demand [W]

3000

2000

1000

0

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200

Time[s]

Fig. 3. Proposed linear prediction method output for light duty electric vehicle without filtering, with window length of 30 and lagging samples of 3.

Predicted Power

Power Demand [W]

24000

16000

8000

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Time[s]

Fig. 4. Proposed linear prediction method output for heavy duty electric vehicle with window length of 30 and lagging samples of 3.

4000 Measured Power with Filtering

3500

Power Demand [W]

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200

Time[s]

Fig. 5. Filtered and non-filtered measured power demand profile.

4000 Predicted Power

3500

Power Demand [W]

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200

Time[s]

Fig. 6. Proposed linear prediction method output for light duty electric vehicle with filtering, with window length of 30 and lagging samples of 3.

4

III. VALIDATION OF THE PROPOSED LINEAR PREDICTION filtered and sent to the predictive controller [10], [11]. A low

METHOD FOR LIGHT AND HEAVY DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLES pass filter is also imposed by the electric vehicle mechanical

system. Filtering makes the measured power smoother and

A. Power Demand Forecast without Filtering the Measured hence more predictable for short term. A sample real

Power Demand Waveforms measured power is shown in Fig. 5 along with its filtered

measured power signal. The filtered waveform together with

To predict the demanded power based on the linear

the prediction results for one step (1 s) ahead, are plotted in

prediction modeling of demanded power samples, equation (2) Fig. 6. As shown in Fig. 6, the linear prediction model gives

has been used. The results of applying the proposed method to acceptable result. The linear prediction model is effective for a

the non-filtered demand power signal of the light and heavy wide range of prediction times ahead and gives acceptable

duty electric vehicles are shown in Figs. 3 and 4. These results results. In Fig. 6, the model degree is m= 3, the window length

are for a prediction time of 1 s, based on 30 samples for is five times m (15 points with 1 s sampling period) and the

window length and for a model degree of m=3 which lead to prediction time is 1 s ahead. The correlation coefficient is

good prediction including the sufficient history of data. The detailed in Appendix A. Filtering the signal of the power

linear prediction method result for the light electric vehicle demand which keeps the trend of the signal and includes the

has quicker transitions in comparison to that of the heavy duty whole signal sags and swells was found to results in a

vehicle as dictated by the load profile of the respective correlation of more than 89% and above.

vehicles. It can be seen that there is a small mismatch between

the predicted and measured results for the light duty electric C. Illustration of the proposed Prediction Scheme through

vehicle which is acceptable as the correlation is 80%. Haar Wavelet based Energy Management System

Whereas, the predicted profile for the heavy duty electric Inorder to validate and analyse the performance of the

vehicle is in closer agreement with that of the measured power developed linear prediction scheme the predicted load profiles

and the correlation is found to be 97%. Thus, it was found that of the light duty and heavy duty electric vehicles were fed into

the prediction could be improved by filtering the load profile a developed Haar wavelet based energy management

of the light duty vehicle, where as the heavy duty load profile system(EMS). The EMS was designed for two contemporary

did not call for filtering because of the vehicles slower hybrid energy sources such as the battery and the

transition and satisfactory prediction. Hence the power ultracapacitor (UC), where in the battery would serve the base

demand forecast after filtering the light duty vehicles load load and the UC would assist peaking power demand in the

profile is provided in Fig. 5. vehicles because of their highly dynamic response. The

predicted waveforms when fed into the EMS get assigned to

either the battery or the UC based on the frequency of the

B. Power Demand Forecast after Filtering the Measured

samples. As shown in Fig 7 and 8, the high frequency

Power Demand Waveforms components of the predicted power demand is assigned to the

As was mentioned in the previous sub-section, filtering out UC as they are periods peaking loads. On the other hand, the

ineffective frequency components for the spectrum of a signal lower frequency components which represent the base load of

can provide better prediction. The measured power is then the vehicles is assigned to the battery.

Fig. 7. Predicted power demand input and the outputs of the wavelet based EMS for light duty electric vehicle.

5

Fig. 8. Predicted power demand input and the outputs of the wavelet based EMS for heavy duty electric vehicle.

IV. CONCLUSION [9] S. A. Pormousavi Kani and M. M. Ardehali, Very Short term wind

speed prediction: A new Artificial neural networl-Markove chain

In this paper, a predictive control based on linear prediction model, Energy Conversion and Management Journal of Elsevier, vol.

method is proposed to predict the power demand one step 52, pp. 738-745, 2011.

ahead. Precise prediction will result in the better and more [10] S. A. Pormousavi Kani, M. Mousavi Sangdehi, A. Kashefi Kaviani, and

G. H. Riahy, A new integrated approach for very short term wind

efficient response of energy management system in electric speed prediction using linear regression among ANN and Markove

vehicles. The linear prediction method proposed in this paper chain, International Conference on Power System Analysis, Control

was found to be a very powerful tool of prediction, good for and Optimization, India, 2008.

[11] C. Yin, L. Rosendahl, and Z. H. Lou, Methods to improve prediction

short term prediction of power demand in both light duty and performance of ANN models, Simulat Model Practice Theory, pp.

heavy duty electric vehicles. The linear prediction method 211-222, 2003.

applied to light duty electric vehicle power demand data

predicted the power profile which was good enough to be VI. APPENDIX A

applied to an energy management system, but the prediction In this appendix, information is given on correlation

was further improved by filtering the measured power of light coefficient assessment. In probability theory and statistics,

electric vehicle. However, the prediction for the heavy duty correllation, also called correlation coefficient, indicates the

electric vehicle was found to be satisfactory even without strength of relationship between two random variables or

filtering the measured power demand profile. A 97% signals. Considering two signals, X(t), and Y(t), the correlation

correlation between the measured and predicted signal was coefficient can be obtained from [11]:

obtained for the heavy duty electric vehicle and 89%

correlation was obtained for the light duty electric vehicle.

Corr ( X , Y ) = X (t + T )Y (t )dt (A.1)

V. REFERENCES

[1] J. Idier and J. F. Giovannelli, Structural stability of least squares where, T, is called the lag and the correlation coefficient is a

prediction methods, IEEE Trans. on Signal Processing, vol. 46, pp. function of this lag. In this paper the lag, T, is set to be zero.

1271-1280, 1998. This means correlation between X(t) and Y(t) without any lag.

[2] A. Szumannowski and Y. Chang, Battery management system based

on battery nonlinear dynamics modeling, IEEE Trans. on Vehicular In this paper, X(t), is the measured power and, Y(t), is the

Technology, vol. 57, pp. 1425-1432, 2008. predicted power by linear prediction. The value of correlation

[3] J. Makhoul, Linear prediction: a tutorial review, Proc IEEE, vol. 63, coefficient can be between -1 to +1 (or -100% to +100%). A

pp. 561-580, 1975.

[4] A. Szumannowski and Y. Chang, Battery management system based

value equal to 100% means the two signals are exactly

on battery nonlinear dynamics modeling, IEEE Trans. on Vehicular identical and a value equal to zero means the two signals has

Technology, vol. 57, pp. 1425-1432, 2008. no correlation and are independent. A value less than 0.3

[5] W. H. Press, Numerical Recipes in FORTRAN - The Art of Scientific means small correlation, a value between 0.3 and 0.5 means

Computing, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.

[6] J. P. Strobach, Linear Prediction Theory, New York: Springer, 1990 medium correlation, and, a value more than 0.5 means large

[7] S. W. Lang and J. H. McClellan, A simple proof of stability for all- correlation. A negative value (for eg. -100%) means the

pole linear prediction models. Proc. IEEE, 1979. signals are identical but where one signal increases by a small

[8] G. H. Riahy and M. Abedi, Short term wind speed forecasting for

wind turbine applications using linear prediction method, Renewable amount, the other signal decreases exactly by the same

Energy Journal of Elsevier, vol. 33, pp. 35-41, 2008. amount.

6

VII. BIOGRAPHIES

S.Mahdi Mousavi Sangdehi received her Bachelor in K. Lakshmi Varaha Iyer received the B.Tech. degree in

Engineering from K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Electronics and Communication Engineering from

Iran in July, 2005 and his M.A.Sc degree of power SASTRA University, India, in the year 2009 and the

electrical enginnering from Amirkabir university of M.A.Sc. degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering

technology, Iran in July 2008. He is currently working from University of Windsor, Canada in the year 2011. He

towards his PhD degree at University of Windsor, is currently a Research Associate at the Centre for Hybrid

Ontario, Canada. His research areas include energy Automotive Research and Green Energy, University of

management and control of electric vehicles, power Windsor, Canada. His research presently focuses on

electronics application in electric vehicles and renewable energy systems. design & control of electric machines and condition

monitoring for renewable energy applications.

Kaushik Mukherjee (M03) was born in 1970. He

received the B.E. degree from the Department of Narayan C. Kar received the B.Sc. degree in Electrical

Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University, Calcutta, Engineering from Bangladesh University of Engineering

India, in 1993, the M.E. degree from the Department of and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh, in 1992 and the

Electrical Engineering, Bengal Engineering College, M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in electrical engineering from

Howrah, India, in 1998, and the Ph.D. degree from the Kitami Institute of Technology, Hokkaido, Japan, in 1997

Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of and 2000, respectively. He is an associate professor in the

Technology, Kharagpur, India, in 2003. Since 1993, he Electrical and Computer Engineering Department at the

has spent almost two and a half years in the industry. In University of Windsor, Canada where he holds the

2002, he joined the Department of Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur

Canada Research Chair position in hybrid drivetrain systems. His research

University, India as a Lecturer. From 2006 onwards, he is an Assistant

Professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering, Bengal Engineering presently focuses on the analysis, design and control of permanent magnet

and Science University, Howrah, India. Dr. Mukherjee is presently a Visiting synchronous, induction and switched reluctance machines for hybrid electric

Professor at the Centre for Hybrid Automotive Research & Green Energy, vehicle and wind power applications, testing and performance analysis of

University of Windsor, Canada. His research interests include electrical batteries and development of optimization techniques for hybrid energy

machine drives and power electronics applications in general. management system. He is a Senior Member of the IEEE.

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