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Short Term Power Demand Forecasting in Light- and


Heavy-duty Electric Vehicles Through Linear
Prediction Method
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Mahdi Mousavi Sangdehi, Student Member, IEEE, 2K. Lakshmi Varaha Iyer, Student Member, IEEE,
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Kaushik Mukherjee, Member, IEEE, and 4Narayan C. Kar, Senior Member, IEEE
Centre for Hybrid Automotive Research and Green Energy, University of Windsor, ON, Canada N9B 3P4
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mousavi@uwindsor.ca, 2iyerl@uwindsor.ca, , 3kmukh@uwindsor.ca, and 4nkar@uwindsor.ca

Abstract In this paper a novel method based on linear term decisions. The short-term decisions could be either
prediction technique is proposed for short term power demand changing from one power source to the other in a HEV, or
forecasting in light and heavy-duty electric vehicles for changing the power flow among the different hybrid sources
improvement in the overall efficiency of the vehicle. The paper in an electric vehicle and/or any other control action which
also utilizes filtering of unnecessary information which would involves delays.
have been a major bottleneck in improving the methods
accuracy. The predicted demand function is fed to a wavelet
function, which apportions the share between the battery and the II. MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPED LINEAR
ultracapacitor of the considered energy management system. PREDICTION TECHNIQUE FOR LIGHT AND HEAVY DUTY
The proposed method is validated with empirical power demand ELECTRIC VEHICLES
data obtained from on road tests of both light and heavy-duty
electric vehicles through numerical investigations. A. The Linear Prediction Method
Linear prediction method is a powerful technique for
Index Terms Energy management system, heavy duty predicting time series in a time-varying environment. A power
electric vehicles, light duty electric vehicles, linear prediction, demand profile of light and heavy-duty vehicles typically
predictive control scheme, wavelet transforms.
belongs to a time-varying process. The linear prediction
model, recursively represents the time series of signal samples
I. INTRODUCTION over a time interval [4], as in (1).
The current market of light electric vehicles (cars) and
evolution of all electric heavy-duty vehicles (bus) in the y (t + T ) = a1 y (t ) + a 2 y (t T ) + ... + a m y (t (m 1)T ) (1)
market like the e-BUS12, Proterra, Astonbus, etc. has + b1u (t + T ) + b2 u (t ) + ... + bn u (t nT ) + c1e(t )
accelerated the need for advanced research and development
of energy management system (EMS) of these vehicles for Here a1, a2,..., am, b1, ..., bn, and c1 are the model coefficients,
better utilization of battery/ultracapacitor combination m is the model degree, y(t+T) is the future sample, y(t) the
considering frequent stop/start duty. Considering this type of present observation, y(t-T) and y(t-nT) are the immediate and
duty, the efficiency of these vehicles can be enhanced by nth past observations respectively, u(t) and u(t-T) are the
assisting the energy management system with pre-emptive present and immediate past inputs, respectively, and e(t) is the
knowledge of power demand which can lead to effective and present model error. In (1), if a1 =...= am = 0, the model is
efficient utilization of the vehicles powertrain. The prediction called moving average or an all-zero model (if considered as a
scheme proposed in this paper assists the energy management transfer function). If m>1 and b1 =...= bn = 0, the model is
system by forecasting the load demand based on frequently called an auto-regressive or an all-pole model. If m<1 and
updated history of the vehicle. Moreover, the real-time n<1, the model is called ARMA (auto-regressive moving
application of such prediction schemes performed at the Audi average) or the pole-zero model [5].
Research Labs to improve the fuel economy of ICE based After modeling each window the sampler advances by one
vehicles has led to the application of these schemes for light as step, thus, updating the model for the new data window.
well as heavy-duty electric vehicles. Using the knowledge of Parametric models for short term demanded power prediction
traffic ahead, the EMS in the vehicle can react to changes in are often based on (1), which is mostly a recursive process and
traffic density or speed before they happen, enhancing the predicts the demanded power at time t+T. However, if more
response time of various components and hence the efficiency time steps are required, then the process may be recessively
of a trip. Background literature obtained from [1]-[3] employed [6]. If b1 =...= bn = 0 and e(t) is ignored then (1)
illustrates that the EMS of electric (EV) and hybrid electric can be written as in (2).
vehicles (HEVs) require prediction times in the range of
y (t + T ) = a1 y (t ) + a 2 y (t T ) + ... + a m y (t (m 1)T ). (2)
seconds ahead of our interest as the problems associated with
delay due to vehicle dynamics have to be dealt with. Thus, The output is the linear combination of the present and past
short term demand prediction can be used as a tool towards samples; hence the name, linear prediction. Two steps are
improved dynamic control of these vehicles by making short- required for short term demanded power prediction using (2).

978-1-4673-1408-4/12/$31.00 2012 IEEE


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In this methodology if m is chosen greater than the required


Measured samples value, (5) cannot be solved for any unique set of coefficients
y(t-mT) ... y(t-T) y(t-mT) ... y(t-T) because some columns in matrix are not independent of each
a1 other. Hence T. would be singular and will not have an
Arithmetic Prediction y(t+nT) inverse. This means the system of equations in (3) will have

Module Module nth next sample an infinite number of answers for the coefficients. Also, if m is
am chosen less than the required value, the number of
Model coefficients independent equations would be more than the number of un-
Fig. 1. The block diagram for short term demanded power prediction method. known variables (a1am). Such a system of equations must be
solved for the best approximation of coefficients. The best
Referring to (2), the model degree (m) must be carefully approximation for the coefficients (a1am) is to use the least
selected and the coefficients, a1,..., am, must be calculated squares error method. Generally, the least squares method is
from the modeling window. The model can be used to predict the most effective modeling process used in practice with
the demanded power for the time steps ahead. The idea of the demanded power signals. The best modeling order, m, is
short term demanded power prediction is represented in Fig. 1 suggested to be the smallest possible value which provides
[7]. Primarily, the modeling window is used to find the best sufficient and acceptable results. The best modeling window is
model for the waveform meanwhile the model parameters are the smallest window which gives acceptable results [8].
used to predict the demanded power in the future.
C. Experimental Data Acqusition of Light and Heavy Duty
B. Estimating the Coefficients of Linear Prediction Model Electric Vehicles Used in the Investigations

If the modeling error is considered, (2) can be rewritten as Section 3 of this paper illustrates measured results obtained
in (3). In order to estimate the coefficients a1, a2,..., am in (3), from an on road vehicle test performed using the laboratory
the least squares error method will be used. This error is light duty electric vehicle. The electric car uses a 7.5 hp
aluminum-rotor induction motor with a variable frequency
between the estimated value, at time t, and the measured
drive. The vehicle instrumentation layout is as shown in Fig.
value, at that same instant.
2. Also, the power demand profile of the heavy duty electric
vehicle obtained from urban dynamometer driving cycle of an
y (t + T ) = a1 y (t ) + a 2 y (t T ) + ... + a m y (t (m 1)T ) + e(t ). (3) electric bus as given in the Autonomy software is as shown in
section 3. The maximum speed achieved by the bus was 56
miles/hour and acceleration/deceleration was 1.47 mile/sec2.
In the least squares error method, the energy in the error signal
The power demand profile of the electric bus was found to
is minimized. It should be mentioned that the error is
vary slowly when compared to that of the car.
generated because the linear prediction model cannot be fitted
Hence, it can be inferred from this study that the as the load
with zero error to the waveform signal. A set of equations as
increases, in order to keep up the constant speed of the
presented in (4) is used to find the coefficients, a1 ,...,am, [8].
vehicles, acceleration has to be increased. In the process of
accelerating, the power demand has to meet by the power
[Y ] = [][A] + [E ] (4) sources. Using the linear prediction method proposed in the
paper, the power demand can be estimated before hand and the
where: energy sources can be used effectively, thus improving the
[Y ] = [y(t ) y(t T ) y (t kT )]T efficiency of the vehicle.

y (t T ) y (t 2T ) y (t mT )
y (t 2T ) y (t (m + 1))T
=


y[t (k + 1)T ] y (t (m + k )T )

a1 e(t )
a e(t T )
A= 2 E =


am e (t kT )

Elements in matrix, A, are the coefficients which van be


found by the least squares error method:
Fig. 2. Vehicle instrumentation layout. (a) Data acquisition and logging
[A] = [[] []] [] [Y ]
T 1 T notebook A. (b) Fluke 434 Power Quality Analyser B. (c) Tektronix
(5) TPS2024 digital storage oscilloscope C.
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5000 Measured Power without Filtering

4000 Predicted Power


Power Demand [W]

3000

2000

1000

0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Time[s]
Fig. 3. Proposed linear prediction method output for light duty electric vehicle without filtering, with window length of 30 and lagging samples of 3.

32000 Measure Power without Filtering


Predicted Power
Power Demand [W]

24000

16000

8000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Time[s]
Fig. 4. Proposed linear prediction method output for heavy duty electric vehicle with window length of 30 and lagging samples of 3.

4500 Measured Power without Filtering


4000 Measured Power with Filtering
3500
Power Demand [W]

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Time[s]
Fig. 5. Filtered and non-filtered measured power demand profile.

4500 Measured Power with Filtering


4000 Predicted Power
3500
Power Demand [W]

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Time[s]

Fig. 6. Proposed linear prediction method output for light duty electric vehicle with filtering, with window length of 30 and lagging samples of 3.
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III. VALIDATION OF THE PROPOSED LINEAR PREDICTION filtered and sent to the predictive controller [10], [11]. A low
METHOD FOR LIGHT AND HEAVY DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLES pass filter is also imposed by the electric vehicle mechanical
system. Filtering makes the measured power smoother and
A. Power Demand Forecast without Filtering the Measured hence more predictable for short term. A sample real
Power Demand Waveforms measured power is shown in Fig. 5 along with its filtered
measured power signal. The filtered waveform together with
To predict the demanded power based on the linear
the prediction results for one step (1 s) ahead, are plotted in
prediction modeling of demanded power samples, equation (2) Fig. 6. As shown in Fig. 6, the linear prediction model gives
has been used. The results of applying the proposed method to acceptable result. The linear prediction model is effective for a
the non-filtered demand power signal of the light and heavy wide range of prediction times ahead and gives acceptable
duty electric vehicles are shown in Figs. 3 and 4. These results results. In Fig. 6, the model degree is m= 3, the window length
are for a prediction time of 1 s, based on 30 samples for is five times m (15 points with 1 s sampling period) and the
window length and for a model degree of m=3 which lead to prediction time is 1 s ahead. The correlation coefficient is
good prediction including the sufficient history of data. The detailed in Appendix A. Filtering the signal of the power
linear prediction method result for the light electric vehicle demand which keeps the trend of the signal and includes the
has quicker transitions in comparison to that of the heavy duty whole signal sags and swells was found to results in a
vehicle as dictated by the load profile of the respective correlation of more than 89% and above.
vehicles. It can be seen that there is a small mismatch between
the predicted and measured results for the light duty electric C. Illustration of the proposed Prediction Scheme through
vehicle which is acceptable as the correlation is 80%. Haar Wavelet based Energy Management System
Whereas, the predicted profile for the heavy duty electric Inorder to validate and analyse the performance of the
vehicle is in closer agreement with that of the measured power developed linear prediction scheme the predicted load profiles
and the correlation is found to be 97%. Thus, it was found that of the light duty and heavy duty electric vehicles were fed into
the prediction could be improved by filtering the load profile a developed Haar wavelet based energy management
of the light duty vehicle, where as the heavy duty load profile system(EMS). The EMS was designed for two contemporary
did not call for filtering because of the vehicles slower hybrid energy sources such as the battery and the
transition and satisfactory prediction. Hence the power ultracapacitor (UC), where in the battery would serve the base
demand forecast after filtering the light duty vehicles load load and the UC would assist peaking power demand in the
profile is provided in Fig. 5. vehicles because of their highly dynamic response. The
predicted waveforms when fed into the EMS get assigned to
either the battery or the UC based on the frequency of the
B. Power Demand Forecast after Filtering the Measured
samples. As shown in Fig 7 and 8, the high frequency
Power Demand Waveforms components of the predicted power demand is assigned to the
As was mentioned in the previous sub-section, filtering out UC as they are periods peaking loads. On the other hand, the
ineffective frequency components for the spectrum of a signal lower frequency components which represent the base load of
can provide better prediction. The measured power is then the vehicles is assigned to the battery.

Fig. 7. Predicted power demand input and the outputs of the wavelet based EMS for light duty electric vehicle.
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Fig. 8. Predicted power demand input and the outputs of the wavelet based EMS for heavy duty electric vehicle.

IV. CONCLUSION [9] S. A. Pormousavi Kani and M. M. Ardehali, Very Short term wind
speed prediction: A new Artificial neural networl-Markove chain
In this paper, a predictive control based on linear prediction model, Energy Conversion and Management Journal of Elsevier, vol.
method is proposed to predict the power demand one step 52, pp. 738-745, 2011.
ahead. Precise prediction will result in the better and more [10] S. A. Pormousavi Kani, M. Mousavi Sangdehi, A. Kashefi Kaviani, and
G. H. Riahy, A new integrated approach for very short term wind
efficient response of energy management system in electric speed prediction using linear regression among ANN and Markove
vehicles. The linear prediction method proposed in this paper chain, International Conference on Power System Analysis, Control
was found to be a very powerful tool of prediction, good for and Optimization, India, 2008.
[11] C. Yin, L. Rosendahl, and Z. H. Lou, Methods to improve prediction
short term prediction of power demand in both light duty and performance of ANN models, Simulat Model Practice Theory, pp.
heavy duty electric vehicles. The linear prediction method 211-222, 2003.
applied to light duty electric vehicle power demand data
predicted the power profile which was good enough to be VI. APPENDIX A
applied to an energy management system, but the prediction In this appendix, information is given on correlation
was further improved by filtering the measured power of light coefficient assessment. In probability theory and statistics,
electric vehicle. However, the prediction for the heavy duty correllation, also called correlation coefficient, indicates the
electric vehicle was found to be satisfactory even without strength of relationship between two random variables or
filtering the measured power demand profile. A 97% signals. Considering two signals, X(t), and Y(t), the correlation
correlation between the measured and predicted signal was coefficient can be obtained from [11]:
obtained for the heavy duty electric vehicle and 89%
correlation was obtained for the light duty electric vehicle.
Corr ( X , Y ) = X (t + T )Y (t )dt (A.1)

V. REFERENCES
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prediction methods, IEEE Trans. on Signal Processing, vol. 46, pp. function of this lag. In this paper the lag, T, is set to be zero.
1271-1280, 1998. This means correlation between X(t) and Y(t) without any lag.
[2] A. Szumannowski and Y. Chang, Battery management system based
on battery nonlinear dynamics modeling, IEEE Trans. on Vehicular In this paper, X(t), is the measured power and, Y(t), is the
Technology, vol. 57, pp. 1425-1432, 2008. predicted power by linear prediction. The value of correlation
[3] J. Makhoul, Linear prediction: a tutorial review, Proc IEEE, vol. 63, coefficient can be between -1 to +1 (or -100% to +100%). A
pp. 561-580, 1975.
[4] A. Szumannowski and Y. Chang, Battery management system based
value equal to 100% means the two signals are exactly
on battery nonlinear dynamics modeling, IEEE Trans. on Vehicular identical and a value equal to zero means the two signals has
Technology, vol. 57, pp. 1425-1432, 2008. no correlation and are independent. A value less than 0.3
[5] W. H. Press, Numerical Recipes in FORTRAN - The Art of Scientific means small correlation, a value between 0.3 and 0.5 means
Computing, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
[6] J. P. Strobach, Linear Prediction Theory, New York: Springer, 1990 medium correlation, and, a value more than 0.5 means large
[7] S. W. Lang and J. H. McClellan, A simple proof of stability for all- correlation. A negative value (for eg. -100%) means the
pole linear prediction models. Proc. IEEE, 1979. signals are identical but where one signal increases by a small
[8] G. H. Riahy and M. Abedi, Short term wind speed forecasting for
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VII. BIOGRAPHIES

S.Mahdi Mousavi Sangdehi received her Bachelor in K. Lakshmi Varaha Iyer received the B.Tech. degree in
Engineering from K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Electronics and Communication Engineering from
Iran in July, 2005 and his M.A.Sc degree of power SASTRA University, India, in the year 2009 and the
electrical enginnering from Amirkabir university of M.A.Sc. degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering
technology, Iran in July 2008. He is currently working from University of Windsor, Canada in the year 2011. He
towards his PhD degree at University of Windsor, is currently a Research Associate at the Centre for Hybrid
Ontario, Canada. His research areas include energy Automotive Research and Green Energy, University of
management and control of electric vehicles, power Windsor, Canada. His research presently focuses on
electronics application in electric vehicles and renewable energy systems. design & control of electric machines and condition
monitoring for renewable energy applications.
Kaushik Mukherjee (M03) was born in 1970. He
received the B.E. degree from the Department of Narayan C. Kar received the B.Sc. degree in Electrical
Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University, Calcutta, Engineering from Bangladesh University of Engineering
India, in 1993, the M.E. degree from the Department of and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh, in 1992 and the
Electrical Engineering, Bengal Engineering College, M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in electrical engineering from
Howrah, India, in 1998, and the Ph.D. degree from the Kitami Institute of Technology, Hokkaido, Japan, in 1997
Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of and 2000, respectively. He is an associate professor in the
Technology, Kharagpur, India, in 2003. Since 1993, he Electrical and Computer Engineering Department at the
has spent almost two and a half years in the industry. In University of Windsor, Canada where he holds the
2002, he joined the Department of Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur
Canada Research Chair position in hybrid drivetrain systems. His research
University, India as a Lecturer. From 2006 onwards, he is an Assistant
Professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering, Bengal Engineering presently focuses on the analysis, design and control of permanent magnet
and Science University, Howrah, India. Dr. Mukherjee is presently a Visiting synchronous, induction and switched reluctance machines for hybrid electric
Professor at the Centre for Hybrid Automotive Research & Green Energy, vehicle and wind power applications, testing and performance analysis of
University of Windsor, Canada. His research interests include electrical batteries and development of optimization techniques for hybrid energy
machine drives and power electronics applications in general. management system. He is a Senior Member of the IEEE.