J. Mt. Sci.

(2012) 9: 628645
DOI: 10.1007/s11629-012-2283-z

Characterizing Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Based on

Corrected TRMM 3B43 Data over the Mid Tianshan
Mountains of China

JI Xuan1,2, CHEN Yunfang3

1 Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830011
2 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049
3 Center for Development Research, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, 650500

E-mail: jixuan@hotmail.com

Science Press and Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Abstract: The poor distribution of meteorological
stations results in a limited understanding of the
precipitation pattern in the Tianshan Mountains. The
spatial patterns of precipitation over the mid
Tianshan Mountains were characterized based on the
TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation data. By
comparing satellite estimates with observed data, it
shows that TRMM 3B43 data underestimate the
precipitation in mountain region. Regression models
were developed to improve the TRMM 3B43 data,
using geographic location and topographic variables
extracted from DEM using GIS technology. The
explained variance in observed precipitation was
improved from 64% (from TRMM 3B43 products
alone) to over 82% and the bias reduced by over 30%
when location and topographic variables were added.
We recalculated all the TRMM 3B43 monthly
precipitation grids for the period 1998 to 2009 using
the best regression models, and then studied the
variation patterns of precipitation over the mid
Tianshan Mountains. The results are well explained
by a general understanding of the patterns of
precipitation and orographic effects. This indicated
that the Tianshan Mountains strongly influences the
amount and distribution of precipitation in the region.
This is highlighted by the confinement of the
precipitation maxima to the windward (northern
slope). And complex vertical changes in the
Received: 1 December 2011
Accepted: 8 July 2012
provenance and distribution of precipitation, like that
a negative increasing rate of precipitation in the
vertical direction exists in the north but does not in
south. The results have also revealed large gradients
and different patterns in seasonal precipitation that
are not simply related to elevation, the distribution of
precipitation may also be affected by other seasonal
factors such as the sources of moist air, wind direction
and temperature.
Keywords: Spatial pattern; Precipitation; Tianshan
Mountains; TRMM
Introduction
The precipitation over the Tianshan
Mountains has significant implications for the
regional hydrologic cycle. As the saying mountains
are the water towers of the world (Immerzeel et al.
2010), a number of major rivers have developed
from the mid Tianshan Mountains having impact
on the ecology and way of life in the region. There
is an urgent need for accurate estimates of the
components of hydrologic cycle, particularly the
amount and pattern of precipitation over the
mountains.
Current knowledge of the annual precipitation
pattern in the mid Tianshan Mountains is derived

628

from a limited number of poorly distributed rain
gauges (Han et al. 2004; Gao et al. 2003; Li et al.
2005); moreover, gauges are point measurements
and may not represent average precipitation over
the larger region (Groisman and Legates 1994;
Sinclair et al. 1997; Dingman 2002). This paucity of
well resolved and distributed weather stations
results in a limited understanding of climatic
variability and spatial distribution of precipitation
in the mountains. This is a problem shared by
other mountainous regions around the world, e.g.
the Himalayas, the Rockies, the Andes and the Alps
(Beniston et al. 1997). Since the 1980s, remote
sensing has been used to obtain rainfall estimates
in such areas, and satellite data, such as TRMM
series data, can be used to resolve the spatial
variation of precipitation.
TRMM products are beneficial to precipitation
research in data scarce region for the advantages
with high time resolution (3 h), near-real-time
availability and near global coverage, which are
well formatted with their data on regular
geographical grids. These features make them
appealing in more and more applications, as
determining the characteristics of precipitation
systems, analyzing the spatial patterns of droughts,
examining the diurnal cycle of rainfall events, and
identifying orographic controls on cloud formation
(Aragao et al. 2007; Nesbitt and Zipser 2003;
Barros et al. 2004, 2006). Some of these studies
have suggested that the overall performance of
satellite data estimates could be improved by
combining different sensors and platforms. For
example, the TRMM 3B43 datasets have the best
estimation for monthly precipitation at present, as
a kind of TMPA (TRMM Multi-Satellite
Precipitation Analysis) product, it has used
precipitation estimates from various
sensors/platforms in their construction, (Adler et
al. 2003; Huffman et al. 2007; Huffman and Bolvin
2012).
Many studies use TRMM products for
hydrological purposes, e.g. the Okavango River
Basin in Angola (Wilk et al. 2006), the Tapajos
River Basin in Brazil (Collischonn et al. 2008). The
results of these studies show that the products have
a good performance in low plains areas. However,
these data sets are often underestimated for
mountainous regions in tropical and mid latitude
mountain systems (Berg et al. 2006; Huffman et al.
J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645
2007). This is particularly true for the Himalayas
(Barros et al. 2004; Anders et al. 2006).
Various methods for correcting this and other
biases have been developed (Condom et al. 2011;
Muhammad and Wim 2011; Almazroui 2011; Tian
et al. 2010; Tobin et al. 2010; Yan et al. 2009),
usually designed to solve specific problems for
different regions. Because true values for areal
precipitation are impossible to obtain, it is difficult
to decide which method performs best, and no
method is generally considered to be standard. Yin
et al. (2004) found that the SSM/I-based remote
sensing rainfall estimates can be significantly
improved by incorporating topographic and
geographic location variables over the Tibetan
Plateau. Because of the similarities between the
SSM/I and TRMM instruments (Wentz 1988;
Grecu and Anagnostou 2001), this study has tried
to realize similar improvements for the TRMM
3B43 data by including topographic and location
variables in precipitation estimates.
In this paper, we (i) analyzed the bias between
the TRMM 3B43 data and in situ rain gauge
monthly precipitation time series from the mid
Tianshan Mountains; (ii) used topographic and
location factors to correct TRMM 3B43 data and
hence generate a better estimate of precipitation
over the mid Tianshan Mountains; (iii) examined
the spatial variation of precipitation based on the
corrected TRMM 3B43 data and topography, as
well as the topographic influences on the
distribution of precipitation over mountain areas.
1 Materials and Methods
1.1 Satellite data
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission
(TRMM) is a satellite jointly operated by NASA
(United States National Aeronautics and Space
Administration) and JAXA (Japanese Aero-spatial
Agency). It was launched in November 1997 and
has provided long-term continuous estimates of
precipitation worldwide since January 1998 for
climatological applications (Grecu and Anagnostou
2001). In this study, we used the TRMM 3B43 data,
which is the single best estimate of monthly
precipitation because it combines 3-hourly
integrated data, infrared (IR) estimates (3B42)
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J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645
with the monthly accumulated Climate Assessment
Monitoring System or Global Precipitation
Climatology Center rain gauge analyses (Huffman
et al. 1995, 1997, 2007). These precipitation
estimates have a 0.25 0.25 (about 770 km2)
spatial resolution, with coverage extending from
latitudes 50 S to 50 N. In these precipitation
estimates, both sampling and instrumental errors
are contained. These errors are caused by the
discrete sampling frequency and the sensors areal
coverage (Condom et al. 2011). Several studies have
shown the temporal errors for average rainfall
ranges from 8-12% per month, and sampling errors
of about 30% (Franchito et al. 2009; Shin and
North 1988; North and Nakamoto 1989; Bell et al.
1990). The instrumental errors in rainfall retrieval
include attenuation factors, drop size distribution,
density of solid particles etc., (Muhammad and
Wim 2011). Such errors can result in erroneous
conclusions if applied directly and without
calibration (AghaKouchak et al. 2009;
Gebremichael et al. 2010). Hence TRMM 3B43
data need area-specific calibration to reduce
such errors.
Figure 1 Terrain of the study area and distribution of the 16 observation stations in this study. The white borders
are two typical watersheds and the three rectangles with dash outline are profiles crossed the south - north of mid
Tianshan Mountains.
630
1.2 Study area and gauge data
The Tianshan mountains range in the Xinjiang
Uygur Autonomous Region of China extends about
1,700 km from east to west and 400 km from north
to south. It divides the area in two with north and
south having very different natural and geographic
landscapes. Unusually, the Tianshan Mountains
are high altitude wetlands, and precipitation here
regulates water balance and regional environment.
Although also affected by the cold, dry air from the
Arctic Ocean, the moist air in this region is mainly
supplied from the zonal westerly circulation (Wei
and Hu 1990). This moist air is forced over the mid
Tianshan Mountains, (altitude greater than 3,000
m), giving abundant precipitation. Our study
region extended between latitudes 42 and 45N
and longitudes 83 and 88E that included the mid
Tianshan Mountains. The distribution of the
stations, regions and DEM (digital elevation model)
are shown in Figure 1. The area has seasonal
precipitation and a very abrupt orography, with
altitudes ranging from 400 to over 5,000 m within
150 km. Precipitation data for 16 stations in this
 J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645

region were collected (Table 1). Five of them are
hydrological stations that only have monthly
precipitation data between 2000 and 2007 (except
Kensiwate). Daily precipitation data for other 11
weather stations were obtained from the Climatic
Data Center of the China Meteorological
Administration, and were summed to get monthly
values. The data have passed rigorous QAQC
procedures, with all extreme values being checked
and validated. Furthermore, it is well known that
snow and/or wind cause errors in rain gauge data
(Legates and Willmott 1990); however, in this
study we have taken the precipitation data as the
actual values. There was no missing data from the
monthly precipitation time series for any of the 16
stations; however, because the duration of the
precipitation data we collected is not uniform
across all stations, we choose to overlap the period
between the observed and TRMM 3B43 data.
1.3 DEM data
In this study we used the ASTER (Advanced
Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection
Radiometer) DEM data. This data has a global
coverage between 83 N-S latitude with a cell size
of 1 arc second (30 m horizontal posting at the
Equator). Data used in this study was resampled to
1 km 1 km resolution. It has been available free
from the NASA WIST since it was released in 2009.
DEM data was used to carry out topographic
analysis and delineate the major watersheds (see
Correction Methodology section).
1.4 Bilinear interpolation method
The TRMM 3B43 data can be considered as
the representative precipitation value of the 0.25
0.25 box. Because the estimation of
precipitation by satellites and from observation
stations have different spatial and temporal
characteristics, it is difficult to match the two
datasets well. Instead of using the grid value or the
averaging of adjacent grids for a particular point
location, bilinear weighted interpolation has been
used to calculate the raster value at any point
position. Brito et al. (2003) used this method to
resample the TRMM 3B43 data for a specific
location. In this study we used this method to
extract precipitation data at the spatial location of
the observed precipitation station from the satellite
data. An illustration is shown in Figure 2. In the
bilinear interpolation, a simple explanation is
followed, i.e. four nearest grid values are used for
calculating the value of a particular point (T), and
the closer the grid is to the point (Ti), the more
influence (weight) it will have. The weights are
derived from the spatial locations in a two-

Table 1 Observation stations from which the precipitation data used in this study was taken. Bold represents the
five hydrological stations.
Station names Elevation (m) Latitude () Longitude () Precipitation (mm/y) Time span
Bajiahu 1,302.0 43.950 85.417 400.8 2000.1-2007.12
Baluntai 1,738.3 42.733 86.300 210.1 1958.1-2009.12
Bayinbuluke 2,458.9 43.033 84.150 290.2 1958.1-2009.12
Caijiahu 441.0 44.200 87.533 141.2 1959.1-2009.12
Daxigou 3,539.0 43.100 86.833 453.5 1959.1-2007.9
Manasi 473.1 44.317 86.200 190.9 1961.1-2007.9
Meiyao 1,161.0 43.900 85.850 417.2 2000.1-2007.12
Shiyanzhan 1,930.0 43.450 87.183 450.5 1978.1-2007.9
Qingshuihezi 1,176.0 43.917 86.050 445.0 2000.1-2007.12
Shihezi 443.7 44.316 86.050 210.0 1953.1-2008.12
Shimenzi 1,886.0 43.800 86.217 495.0 2000.1-2007.12
Wulanwusu 469.3 44.284 85.817 224.7 1991.1-2007.9
Wulumuqi 918.7 43.783 87.617 267.1 1951.1-2009.12
Wusu 478.3 44.433 84.667 169.1 1957.1-2009.12
Xiaoquzi 1,871.8 43.483 87.100 552.1 1957.1-2007.9
Kensiwate 885.0 43.950 85.417 345.0 1956.1-2007.12

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dimensional space (Gribbon and Bailey 2004). The
bilinear interpolation weights can be calculated as
follows (Arnold et al. 2002):
n for bias correction.
T = Ti Wi
i =1
S
Wi = i
R relationships between observed precipitation data
where n = 4, T is the particular point value, R is the
area of the TRMM grid, Wi is the weight. As figure
2 shows, the particular point (T) divides the
rectangle surrounding it by the four nearest points
into the new four parts; Si is the area of each part.
T2 T3
S2 S3
T
S1 S4
T1 T4
Figure 2 Illustration of bilinear interpolation
This is viewed as a downscaling approach in
this study to interpolate the TRMM grid value after
correction into a smaller grid (0.01 0.01). This
approach could reduce the boundary bias along the
border of the 0.25 0.25 boxes and generate a
continuous surface to allow analysis of the
differences of precipitation patterns between the
north and south slopes of the Tianshan Mountains
(see Results section).
1.5 Correction method
Bias-adjustment methods rely either on
establishing a relationship between satellite and
gauge-based precipitation (where gauge-based
measurements are available) or on a combination
of several satellite-based estimates in regions with
no gauges (Boushaki et al. 2009). In this study, the
relationship is derived from regression models for
one month periods. The regression analyses were
632
carried out based on observed precipitation data
and TRMM 3B43, particularly included location
and terrain factors which are the spatial variables
(1) P = P ( TRMM LCT TRR) (3)
P is the estimated value after correction;
(2) P(Var1,Var2,Varn) represents the empirical
and variables; LCT represents location variables
(latitude and longitude) to determine whether
there are spatial trends in the performance of the
approach; TRR represents terrain variables which
are based on local topographic features such as
elevation, slope, aspect and roughness. These
terrain variables are also commonly used in studies
of orographic effects on precipitation (Goodale et
al.1998; Katzfey 1994; Bradley et al. 1998;
Kurtzman and Kadmon 1999; Wotling et al. 2000;
Weisse and Bois 2001). Table 2 summarizes the
variables considered in this study.
For some variables, the summary value of the
topographic feature in a region close to a given
point has a greater significance than the value at
the point itself (Daly et al. 1994; Wotling et al.
2000). A region the same size as a box in the
TRMM grid (0.25 0.25) was generated to
extract the terrain features. The box region size
matched the spatial resolution of the satellite data,
so that the terrain features around the precipitation
station would have comparable local scales.
To carry out the topographic analysis and
generate surfaces of precipitation estimates, GIS
was used. For example, values of raster surfaces,
such as topographic variables were extracted using
zonal statistics and tabulated area functions of the
Spatial Analyst Module in ArcGIS (ESRI, Redlands,
California). We also used the hydrology analysis
function of ArcGIS to delineate the typical river
watershed based on the DEM data. The ridgeline of
the mid Tianshan south-north slope is also defined.
In this study, the flow direction of Manasi river
basin is south to north, and the Wulasitai river
basin is north to south, and the ridgeline can be
clearly seen (shown in Figure 1).
To determine which location and terrain
variables made significant contributions to the
improvement of the precipitation estimates, we
used correlation and multiple linear regression
analyses. A correlation analysis between the
 J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645

Table 2 Description of terrain variables used in this study

Variables ID Variables Name Description
1 Elvavg Average elevation in the box region
2 Elvmin Min elevation in the box region
3 Elvmax Max elevation in the box region
4 Elvstd Standard deviation of elevation in the box region
5 Elvrng Range of elevation in the box region
6 Slpavg Average slope in the box region
7 Slpmin Min slope in the box region
8 Slpmax Max slope in the box region
9 Slpstd Standard deviation of slope in the box region
10 AspN Proportion of area with north-facing slopes in the box region
11 AspNE Proportion of area with northeast-facing slopes in the box region
12 AspE Proportion of area with east-facing slopes in the box region
13 AspSE Proportion of area with southeast-facing slopes in the box region
14 AspS Proportion of area with south-facing slopes in the box region
15 AspSW Proportion of area with southwest-facing slopes in the box region
16 AspW Proportion of area with west-facing slopes in the box region
17 AspNW Proportion of area with northwest-facing slopes in the box region
Surface Roughness in the box region: the ratio of curved surface
18 Rgh
area and projected area

eighteen terrain variables and observed
precipitation was performed, and the insignificant
variables in that linear relationship were directly
excluded from the analysis. Regression analysis
was then used to determine the other variables.
Regression was carried out stepwise, selecting the
variables backwards. In the regression analysis, we
first used only the TRMM 3B43 data as the
independent variable, then added the location
variables (latitude and longitude) into the models,
and finally added the terrain variables. While all
other variables were selected by a stepwise
procedure, only variables that were significant at
the 0.05 level were allowed to enter and remain in
the models. The advantage for this method is that a
variable selected in one step can be eliminated in a
later step. In this way, initially all the variables are
introduced in a single step and subsequently
discarded one by one based on the outset criteria.
Each time a variable is removed from the function,
the model is recalculated so the variance must be
explained globally. This process is continued until a
robust regression model between the observed
precipitation and the TRMM 3B43 data, station
locations and the terrain variables was obtained.
The determination coefficient (R2) is
considered as a measure of the goodness of fit of
variation of the dependent variable (monthly
precipitation) explained by the regression model.
Since the R2 tends to overestimate the goodness of
fit of the model, we also calculated an adjusted R2,
which compensates for the optimistic trait in the
determination coefficient. Unlike R2, the adjusted
determination coefficient does not necessarily
increase when additional variables are added to an
equation.
The reliability of the corrected TRMM 3B43
estimates was evaluated using the RMSE (root-
mean-square error), which is frequently used as a
measure of the differences between values
predicted by a model and those actually observed.
This error is absolute and maintains the unit of
measurement, and represents that of the best
estimation parameters. We also validated these
correction factors based on a comparison with the
observed monthly precipitation data for each
station, especially the Kensiwate station, which was
not used in the regression models. The aim was to
show the improvement in the estimation of
precipitation.
n
(T O )
i i
2

the model, and it represents the proportion of the

RMSE = i =1
(4)
n

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J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645
n small proportion of annual precipitation. For the
(T i O )2
R2 = i =1
n
(5)
(O
i =1
i O) 2 +64 to -139 mm in July), a quite different spatial
n 1
Ra2 = 1 1 R 2 (6) relative biases between the TRMM 3B43 and
n k 1
Ti is the TRMM 3B43 estimation after
correction, Oi is the observed precipitation value,
O is the mean of the observed data, k is the total
number of variables, n is the sample size.
We extracted the necessary terrain variables
for each TRMM 3B43 data grid in our study area,
and then calculated the estimation precipitation
value using the best regression models. However,
due to the low resolution (0.25 0.25), the
corrected precipitation value changed in a non-
uniform step manner, and was inconsistent with
the scale of our study.We interpolated the grid to a
small (0.01 0.01) grid using the bilinear
interpolation method introduced above. Once this
was done, spatial variation analysis of precipitation
was carried out. We selected three profiles that
were perpendicular to the ridgeline of mid
Tianshan Mountains to analyze the vertical
distribution differences of precipitation between
the north and south slopes. We also chose one
typical river basin for both of the north and south
slopes of the Tianshan Mountains to analyze the
characteristics of the precipitation on a basin scale.
For the purposes of the comparison, we chose the
Manasi river basin (north slope) and Wulasitai
river basin (south slope) because they have
comparable features, i.e. similar basin areas and
flows (Figure 1).
2 Results
2.1 Performance of the TRMM 3B43 data
Figure 3 shows the difference of monthly
precipitation between observed and TRMM 3B43
data averaged for all the months of the study
period with all stations pooled together. In general,
TRMM 3B43 underestimated the station
precipitation except for a small winter
overestimation for January, February, and
December. The overestimation was a relatively
634
summer months, the range of the bias between
satellite estimates and observed data is large (e.g.
pattern to that of the winter.
The spatial distribution of the mean absolute
observed data over all years of the study period is
shown in Figure 4. It generally shows that TRMM
3B43 data tended to underestimate precipitation
consistently in mountainous regions, especially on
the north slopes. For example, the annual
precipitation is almost 50% underestimated at the
Xiaoquzi station. We also calculated the correlation
coefficients between the observed and TRMM 3B43
estimated values for each station over all months.
As Figure 5 shows, the performance of TRMM
3B43 estimates appeared to have strong
correlations to the observed precipitation values in
the mountainous regions, but was only weakly
correlated in the low elevation areas. Overall, we
can conclude that the TRMM 3B43 data has strong
correlation and large bias with the observed data in
mountain area, and they must be corrected before
being used.
We found that the performance of TRMM
3B43 data in south slope situations is different
from that in the north. The estimation bias is low
Figure 3 Box plot of the monthly variations of the
deviation between the TRMM 3B43 and observed data
for all station. The box plot summarizes five numbers:
the minimum, the maximum, the lower quartile, the
median, the upper quartile. There are 159 data samples
for January to September respectively and 154 samples
for October to December respectively used in the
calculation. In general, the TRMM 3B43 data
underestimated the observed data during the wet
period.
 J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645

Figure 4 Spatial distribution of the mean absolute relative biases between TRMM 3B43 and observed data
averaged for all the year during study period (TRMM 3B43 precipitation estimates as ratios to the station
observations).

Figure 5 Correlation coefficients between TRMM 3B43 and observed data at each station. (At the 0.01 level)

and the estimates are in very good correlation with
the observed precipitation at the two south slope
stations. It seems the TRMM 3B43 monthly
precipitation has a high accuracy on the southern
slopes of the Tianshan Mountains. However, due to
the modest number of stations, this conclusion
remains uncertain.
2.2 Correction of the TRMM 3B43 data
We extracted 18 potential terrain variables
that could affect precipitation distribution in the
study area (Table 2). To select those variables that
can make statistically significant contributions to
predicting the spatial pattern of precipitation, we

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J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645

conducted correlation analysis using station
precipitation data for each month against the
topographic variables. Fifteen terrain variables had
statistically significant correlation coefficients (at
the 0.05 level) with the station precipitation for at
least 1 month when all data in the study period
were pooled together. Three variables that did not
have any significant correlation coefficients were
Elvrng and Aspsw, Aspw; these were excluded from
the subsequent regression analysis.
Table 3 shows the result of stepwise regression
on observed data. With each step, the R2 values or
explained variances improved. For stepwise
regression using location variables, latitude
entered all models except for May, but longitude
was only included for May, June, July, August
(Table 3a). These results appear to show that
longitude mainly influences the precipitation
distribution in summer months, when the weather
is rainy and a westerly circulation prevails.
On average, the adjusted R2 values increased
from 0.4375 when using TRMM 3B43 alone, to
0.4766 when location variables were added, and to
0.6302 when the terrain was added to the models
(Table 3). For comparison, the reported
correlations between satellite estimates and gauge
observations in several studies would be equivalent
to R2 values of 0.3 to 0.6 in most cases (Yin et al.
2008; Adler et al. 2001; Sealy et al. 2003).
It is noteworthy that the performance of the
models in the cold season is not as good as that in
the warm seasons. Possibly this is because the
original satellite estimates, which perform worse in
the cold season, have the dominant influence.
However, the final models represent a significant
improvement compared with only the TRMM 3B43
data.
Table 4 represents the variables and regression
coefficients of the final models to illustrate how
terrain variables can be used as correction factors
with different monthly weights to improve TRMM
3B43 precipitation estimates. Four variables (Elvstd,
Slpmin, Slpmax and Slpstd ) that were not significant
(P = 0.05 ) were excluded in the process of
regression analysis. Hence, only 11 terrain variables
retained in the final model.
We plotted the monthly precipitation of the
TRMM 3B43 estimates, and the model-estimated
values against the station observed values in Figure
6. The improvement over the original TRMM3B43
estimates is obvious. The corrected precipitation
estimates explained over 81% of the variance in the
observed precipitation as compared to 64% by
TRMM3B43 alone, and the RMSE decreased 34%
after correction. The fit of the lines clearly show
that the TRMM3B43 data generally
underestimated precipitation and became very
close to observed data after correction.

Table 3 Results of regression analysis are based on all study period data pooled together for each month.
(a). R2 of regression models: observed precipitation VS TRMM 3B43
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
R 0.26 0.57 0.30 0.23 0.40 0.59 0.50 0.59 0.42 0.34 0.49 0.44
Adjusted R 0.25 0.57 0.29 0.23 0.39 0.59 0.49 0.58 0.41 0.34 0.48 0.44

(b). R2 of regression models: observed precipitation VS TRMM 3B43 (forced) and location variables (stepwise)
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
R 0.32 0.58 0.32 0.25 0.40 0.67 0.68 0.72 0.43 0.40 0.54 0.50
Adjusted R 0.31 0.57 0.31 0.24 0.40 0.66 0.67 0.71 0.42 0.39 0.53 0.50

Variables Lat Lat Lat Lat Lat Lat Lat Lat Lat Lat Lat
entered Lon Lon Lon Lon

(c). R2 of regression models: station precipitation VS TRMM 3B43 (forced), location, and terrain variables
(stepwise). The entered variables are shown in Table 4
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
R 0.48 0.68 0.57 0.68 0.70 0.76 0.71 0.77 0.63 0.60 0.64 0.62
Adjusted R 0.44 0.66 0.54 0.66 0.69 0.74 0.70 0.76 0.61 0.58 0.61 0.60

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 J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645

Table 4 Regression models to predict station precipitation using satellite estimates, geographic location, and terrain
variables. All independent variables in the models are statistically significant at the 0.05 level except the blanks,
which represent the variables not entered the model.
Regression coefficients
Var.
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
TRMM 0.487 0.900 0.852 0.847 1.1566 0.925 0.815 0.856 0.933 1.043 0.782 0.641
Lon -2.583 -9.755 -8.481 3.369 3.305 -4.917 -3.023 -3.571 -2.909
Lat -11.810 -25.003 -68.626 -70.725 -31.919 -76.367 -58.119 -34.720 -36.308 -28.346
Eleavg -0.073 -0.036 0.062 0.039 0.096 -0.024 -0.020
Elemin 0.074 0.023 -0.099 -0.039 -0.045 -0.084 0.027 -0.028 -0.015
Elemax -0.006 -0.021
Slpavg 15.109 4.475 -16.669 15.1685 2.010 3.497 3.131
-
Rgh -278.675 558.673 146.971
531.106
97.558 116.424 156.373

Aspe -152.323 -79.456 -174.214 -65.055 136.465 -156.506 -62.958 -77.623 -100.598

Aspn -125.808 -35.448 -95.897 129.063 151.504 -43.067 -83.979

Aspne -122.006 -54.333 -56.765 -170.975 -40.354 48.616 -79.793 -84.137 -105.124

Aspnw -155.623 -71.039 -152.267 -256.325 -87.945 -154.297 -123.431 -161.427

Asps -366.741 -198.295 -169.510 -560.656 -316.131 -247.313 -251.103 -260.677 -24.224
Aspse -156.788 -91.499 203.987 253.004 -140.015 -71.33
Con. 966.699 1398.324 3383.577 3891.460 543.218 1049.106 3318.294 -296.045 2970.175 1881.809 1913.412 1364.218

Note: Var. = Variables; Con. = Constant

Figure 7 Mean monthly precipitation of TRMM3B43

and corrected estimations compared to the observed
at Kensiwate station. It shows obvious improvement
in April and May, and a more reasonable distribution
during the year.

Nevertheless, it does explain over 90% of the

Figure 6 TRMM 3B43, and model estimates plotted
against the observed monthly precipitation values at all
stations. The dash line indicated fit line of the original
TRMM3b43 and observed data, and the solid is after
corrected.
The R and RMSE were also calculated at each
station to illustrate the effects of correction (Table
5). It shows that the Rof corrected and observed
data ranged from 0.7 to 0.96 at mountain stations,
and the RMSE decreased to an average of 14. The
R2 did not improve very much at Baluntai and
Bayinbuluke stations on the south slope.
variance in the observed precipitation, and the
RMSE was smaller. The Kensiwate station, which
did not participate in the regression models,
showed an improvement in its R2 value of 33.85%,
and a drop in the RMSE of 23.71%. Additionally,
according to Figure 7, the mean of monthly
corrected precipitation was very close to the
observed data at this station especially in April and
May, and the distribution during the year is more
reasonable.
Compared with the original TRMM 3B43 data,
the corrected estimations were also significantly
improved on an annual time scale (Figure 8).

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J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645

Table 5 R and RMSE of the TRMM 3B43, and model estimates compare to the observed monthly
precipitation values at each station. (Bold represent the station in mountain area and the Italic indicate
the station did not participate in the regression analysis)
Original TRMM 3B43 Corrected estimates
Station Name
R RMSE R RMSE
Bajiahu 0.63 21.36 0.75 17.03
Bayinbuluke 0.88 11.68 0.915 8.94
Baluntai 0.96 8.51 0.965 6.09
Caijiahu 0.52 10.52 0.515 8.59
Daxigou 0.75 29.04 0.88 17.67
Manasi 0.29 15.34 0.38 12.99
Meiyao 0.55 22.36 0.70 16.01
Qingshuihezi 0.57 23.84 0.73 16.14
Shihezi 0.36 14.02 0.55 10.50
Shimenzi 0.68 25.35 0.82 15.37
Shiyanzhan 0.67 29.58 0.81 18.04
Wulanwusu 0.341 14.92 0.56 10.71
Wulumuqi 0.81 12.34 0.85 9.30
Wusu 0.25 13.19 0.42 10.90
Xiaoquzi 0.71 38.07 0.83 18.99
Kensiwate 0.53 19.50 0.71 15.27

also provides the possibility of understanding the

spatial variability of precipitation that exists in the
mid Tianshan Mountains.

2.3 Spatial pattern of precipitation over

the middle Tianshan Mountains

All the TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation

Figure 8 Annual precipitation of TRMM3B43 and
corrected estimations compared to the observed at
each station (averaged from all study periods).
These results suggest that terrain and location
variables can further improve the 3B43 data for all
months by using the regression models. It is
impossible to eliminate the bias completelybut
our results show that the bias can be significantly
reduced and the corrections have reasonable
annual distribution. In general, the corrected
estimations were very close to the observed data at
all stations in the study area. The corrected data
grids during 1998-2009 in our study area were
corrected using the best regression models, and
then the estimated precipitation values were
interpolated to a small grid (0.01 0.01) by the
bilinear interpolation method.
Figure 9 represents the spatial distribution of
annual average precipitation in the mid Tianshan
Mountains. It shows that the spatial variations of
precipitation are more complex in mountainous
areas than on the plains. The precipitation
increases slightly with elevation in the low
mountain area of the northern slopes, and shows
irregular zonation of high precipitation in the
medium-high mountain area. Although the
precipitation amount changes from area to area, it
can be clearly seen that precipitation over the
mountains is much higher than that over the plain.
According to Figure 9, the maximum precipitation
reached about 600-800 mm on the northern slopes
of the mid Tianshan Mountains. In sharp contrast,

638

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of 12-yr averaged (1998-2009) annual precipitation over the mid Tianshan
Mountains.
a low precipitation center exists in the Small
Youerdus Basin which has only about 150 mm
annual precipitation. It indicates that the
mountains influence the amount of precipitation
and the importance of the mountain range on the
spatial distribution of precipitation is highlighted
by the confinement of the precipitation maxima to
the northern slopes.
To further analyze the differences in
J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645
Figure 10 Profiles of topography and
precipitation. The black lines and dark gray
shading show the mean elevation (m) and
range of elevations along the profiles indicated
in Figure 1. The dashed line is the 12yr average
annual precipitation (mm/yr) estimated with
the corrected TRMM3B43 precipitation data.
Light gray shading indicates the range of
precipitation values.
precipitation distribution between northern and
southern slope, we selected three topographic
profiles which cross the ridgeline of the mountains
(The ridgeline was defined by the two typical
watersheds in this study, shown in Figure 1). Figure
10 shows the relationship between precipitation
and topography on the three profiles. The Small
Youerdus Basin on the southern slope is a low
precipitation region that was clearly shown again
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J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645

Figure 11 Correlation of annual average precipitation and elevation in basins.

on profile A and B. In comparison with profiles A Table 6 Increasing rate of precipitation in different
and B, the correlation of precipitation and elevation range of two typical river basins. (The
correlations were all significant at the 0.01 level)
topography is simple on profile C, but still quite
different between the two sides of the mountains. It BN ER IR CC BP
shows that precipitation on northern slopes is 1,000-
143.05 0.9715
always greater than on the southern slopes at the 2,500
Manasi 2,500-
same altitude; as there is a high mountain peak, the River 3,700
-81.01 0.9947 545.38
precipitation on the leeward slope declined slightly 3,700-
65.7 0.9415
(Note that the highest peak in these profiles is not 5,000
necessarily on the ridgeline we defined). 1,400-
76.57 0.9836
Wulasitai 3,200
Precipitation decreases with increasing elevation at River
323.65
3,200-
a certain altitude on the northern slopes on all 268.64 0.9852
4,200
three profiles. In other words, Figure 10 shows that
Note: BN = Basin Name; ER = Elevation Range (m);
the distribution of precipitation does not always IR = Increasing Rate (mm/km); CC = Correlation
increase monotonically with elevation. Coefficient; BP = Basin Precipitation (mm)
The spatial variation of precipitation was
analyzed on the basin scale. Two typical river northwesterly air is denuded of the bulk of its water
basins (Manasi River and Wulasitai River) were and hence delivers very little rainfall to the
divided into several elevation bands with a range of southern slope. In sharp contrast, precipitation
about 200 m. The average elevation and annual increased monotonically with elevation in the
precipitation in each band were calculated. Wulasitai river basin, showing a moderate increase
Although this leads to a homogenization of the below 3,200 m, a dramatic increase (about 268
different elevations in each band, the results still mm/km) above 3,200 m. The rain shadow
reflect the general trend. As Figure 11 shows, there mechanism above also explains the annual average
were significant differences in vertical distribution precipitation to the Manasi River basin.
of precipitation between the two watersheds. In the The spatial patterns also changed with season
Manasi river basin, the vertical increase in the rate in the mid Tianshan Mountains (Figure 12).
of annual precipitation is 143.05 mm/km (below Although precipitation in summer (June, July and
about 2,500 m); between about 2,500 m and 3,700 August) accounts for more than half of yearly
m the precipitation decreased with altitude (- amount in both watersheds, it shows different
81.81mm/km), and then increased again(65.7 morphology. In the area below the elevation of
mm/km) above 3,700 m (Table 6). This is probably 2,500 m in the Manasi River basin, April to August
due to the orographic precipitation effect of the are the main precipitation months of the year, and
high mountains, so that the incoming moist compared to the high altitude region, the

640

Figure 12 Variations of monthly precipitation in watersheds at different elevations
precipitation changes are moderate in these
months. Seasonal variation of precipitation in all
elevation bands of the Wulasitai river basin is
similar to that in high mountain area of Manasi
river basin, i.e. the precipitation changes
significantly from month to month. July has the
highest precipitation, and had the highest rainfall
in the highest band of both watersheds. Figure 12
also shows a remarkable phenomenon: the
precipitation in the high attitude area is less than
the low area in the Manasi River basin in cold
seasons.
3 Discussion
3.1 The uncertainty of the TRMM 3B43
precipitation estimates
Although TRMM 3B43 data has many
advantages, it also has some uncertainty. There are
sampling and instrumental errors, and inevitable
random error caused by different kinds of sensor.
These errors affect the accuracy of the precipitation
product. Also for using these data, Barros et al.
(2006) found that the TRMM PR had difficulties in
detecting precipitation at high elevations. And
many studies showed that these data sets are often
underestimated for mountainous regions (Berg et
al. 2006; Huffman et al. 2007; Barros et al. 2004;
Anders et al. 2006). In this study, we also found
the TRMM 3B43 product underestimated the
precipitation in mid Tianshan Mountains. This is
probably due to precipitation occurred in the high
J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645
mountainous regions are usually in solid form
(snowfall). At present, remote sensing of snowfall
is still a difficult process, as snowflakes (or frozen
precipitation) have different sizes, shapes, and
densities resulting in complex radar echoes
(Bookhagen and Burbank 2010).The only input
into the combined TRMM 3B43 product for snow
comes from the AMSU-B precipitation data: first
regions of falling snow over land is identified
through the use of AMSU-A measurements at 53.8
GHz, and then falling snow is assigned a rate of 0.1
mm/hrHuffman and Bolvin 2012). The simple
assigned snowfall rate may be the reason resulting
in underestimating precipitation for high
mountainous area.
3.2 The orographic effect of topographic
features on precipitation
The orographic effect of topographic features
on precipitation has a well-documented and
significant influence on precipitation patterns. For
example, Smith (1979) found that topography itself
has a profound effect on spatial patterns of
precipitation both globally and regionally. It is well
known that mountains influence the flow of air and
disturb the vertical stratification of the atmosphere
by acting as physical barriers and as heat sources
or sinks (Barros and Lettenmaier 1994). Roe et al.
(2003) described the mechanisms of orographic
precipitation, including forced ascent on windward
slopes and adiabatic warming on the leeward
slopes when mountain ranges lie across the
prevailing moisture-laden wind flows. These
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J. Mt. Sci. (2012) 9: 628645
mechanisms depend on both topography and the
conditions of the air parcel upwind of the
mountains (Anders et al. 2006). The temperature,
moisture content, and velocity of the incoming air,
as well as the topographic characteristics, work
together to determine how the atmosphere
interacts with the mountains (Houze 1993).
This work has not explained the spatial
variation of precipitation in detail based on the
mechanisms of the physical processes of the
multiple factors determined, for the reason that
limitations of the spatial and temporal resolution
of the datasets. However, we have shown that
topographic variables, which are easily extracted
from the DEM, contributed significantly in the
correction of the biases in satellite rainfall
estimates (Table 4). Additionally, this approach
still allows understanding of the effect of
topographic structure on the spatial pattern of
precipitation in the mid Tianshan Mountains, to
some extent still based on a statistical approach.
Many studies in the Himalayas have indicated
that the pattern of precipitation is strongly
controlled by the topography, and there is a
dramatic reduction of precipitation in the rain
shadow north of the Himalayas (Barros et al. 2004;
Bodo and Douglas 2006; Anders et al. 2006).
Similarly, we have concluded that topographic
features dominate the significant differences of
spatial distribution of precipitation in the mid
Tianshan Mountains. Wei and Hu (1990) found
that the relative humidity on the northern slopes is
40% higher than that of the southern. It can be
interpreted as south being in the rain shadow of the
north. Therefore, there is a significant difference in
the spatial pattern of precipitation between the
north and south slopes of the mid Tianshan
Mountains.
3.3 Special features of precipitation
distribution in the mid Tianshan
Mountains
Based on our limited data, we were unsure
about the reasons for the formation of second
maximum precipitation zone in the northern slope
of the mid Tianshan Mountains, according to other
studies (Fu 1992; Chen et al. 1980; Wei and Hu
1990; Shen and Liang 2004), it seems likely that
the strong evaporation of permanent snow and
642
glaciers (above about 3,700 m), allows the
humidity to increase, making it possible to form
abundant precipitation.
In cold seasons, the precipitation in the high
attitude area is less than the low area in the Manasi
River basin in northern slope. A reasonable
explanation is that this is caused by a temperature
inversion that occurred over the northern slopes of
the mid Tianshan Mountains (Han et al. 2002;
Aizen et al. 1996). This variation of precipitation
returned to normal when the temperature
inversion ended. This phenomenon was not
observed in the Wulasitai river basin on the
southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains.
Similar seasonal gradients have been observed
before (Han et al. 2004).
Additionally, the lack of sufficient and well
distributed sites on the southern slopes of the
Tianshan Mountains means that there may be
some uncertainty about the estimations of
precipitation in this area when building the
regression models. However, the good performance
of the original TRMM 3B43 data on the southern
slopes (Table 5) and consistency with the results
from a previous study (Han et al. 2004) increases
our confidence in our results.
4 Conclusions
In this study, we first analyzed the biases of
TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation estimates over
the mid Tianshan Mountains. The biases of the
TRMM 3B43 data have different regional patterns,
and largely underestimate the precipitation for
most parts of the study region, especially in the
high altitude mountain area on the northern slopes.
The spatial patterns of the biases varied monthly,
suggesting seasonal patterns of the influencing
factors.
In order to select the variables that can be
used as correction factors to improve TRMM3B43
precipitation estimates over the study area, we
extracted terrain variables around the stations.
After a preliminary correlation analysis, 15 terrain
variables were included in stepwise regression
analysis. By adding the topographic variables to the
regression models, the performance of the satellite
estimates can be improved significantly. These
results suggest that it is feasible to use these terrain

and location variables to improve satellite
estimates.
We recalculated all the TRMM 3B43 monthly
precipitation grids between 1998 and 2009 in our
study area using the best regression models. On
this basis, variation patterns of precipitation in the
mid Tianshan Mountains show that there is more
precipitation on the northern than the southern
slopes. Clearly, the mountains have a strong effect
on the amount and spatial distribution of
precipitation in the area. This is underscored by the
confinement of the precipitation maxima to the
northern slope.
To a great extent the results are well explained
by a general understanding of and the orographic
effects of the mountains. The annual amount of
precipitation on windward (northern slope) is
always greater than that on the leeward (southern
slope) at the same attitude. The precipitation on
the leeward slope changes slightly with elevation.
The correlations of topography with precipitation
indicate the importance of the mountain range in
providing the moisture for the precipitation events.
A negative increasing rate of annual precipitation
in the vertical direction exists on the northern
slope shows that annual precipitation does not
always increase monotonically with the elevation.
Basin scale analysis of the spatial variations of
precipitation showed there were significant
differences in the vertical distribution of
precipitation. That is mainly affected by
topography. The spatial distribution of
precipitation also shows different seasonal patterns
in different regions. It is quite unique that the
precipitation in the higher attitude area is less than
that over the lower area on the northern slopes in
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The TRMM3B43 data were provided by the
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