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To: Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies

Date: September 12th, 2017

New Poll Shows Senator Flake in Deep Trouble

The depth of Senator Jeff Flakes political problem is clear from a new Arizona poll of
both likely 2018 general election voters and likely Republican primary voters. Flake has
completely surrendered the Republican base with his apostasy and is getting shellacked by Kelli
Ward. Meanwhile, Flake is also deeply unpopular with general election voters, including
Independents who give him little credit for his stand against President Trump.

This memo highlights key findings from the survey of 600 likely 2018 general election
voters and 500 likely 2018 Republican primary voters.

Key Findings Republican Primary

Flake is deeply unpopular with Republican primary voters. Republican primary


voters offer Flake an abysmal 25 percent favorable 56 percent unfavorable rating. And
59 percent disapprove of the job hes doing, while just 34 percent approve.

Ward trounces Flake in vote matchup. Kelli Ward leads Flake 58 31 percent in a
head-to-head matchup, an outstandingly large deficit for an incumbent. Flake trails by
20+ points with registered Republicans and Unaffiliated voters, men and women, and in
every region of the state.

Mitch McConnell is wildly unpopular and his Super PAC is not helping Flake.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has an astoundingly low favorability rating
with Republican primary voters in Arizona, 17 percent favorable 42 percent
unfavorable. McConnells Super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, launched a digital attack
ad campaign against Ward, but it is not working because, as noted above, Ward leads
Flake by 27 points.

Key Findings General Election

General election voters disapprove of Flake across the political spectrum. Flakes
troubles with the Republican base are compounded by problems with general election
voters. Flake suffers from negative personal ratings, 23 percent favorable 48 percent
unfavorable, and negative job approval ratings, 38 percent approve 50 percent

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disapprove. Independents give Flake a 20 percent favorable 50 percent unfavorable
rating, almost as bad as Democrats (17 percent favorable 51 percent unfavorable).

Flake is losing the general election. Against Kyrsten Sinema, Flake trails 47 40
percent and is trailing by 13 points among Independent voters.

McConnell unpopular across the board. Senate Majority Leader McConnell has a 12
percent favorable 46 percent unfavorable rating with likely general election voters.

Methodology

GBA Strategies conducted a survey of 600 likely 2018 general election voters and 500 likely
Republican primary voters. The survey was conducted August 30 September 7, 2017. All
surveys were conducted by trained interviewers, reaching voters on cell phones and landlines.
The general election sample is subject to a +/- 4.0 percentage point margin of error, while the
Republican primary sample is subject to a +/- 4.4 percentage point margin of error.