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NEWSNOV92016,4:35AMET

TrumpWinLeavesQuestionsAboutLatino,AfricanAmericanVote
bySTEPHENA.NUO
Thiswasnotanormalelectionandpoliticalscientistswerewrongeverystepoftheway.Fromtheprimaryonthroughtoelectionnight,
Trumpdefeatedtheoddsandoverwhelmedthemathwithbruteforce.

ThoughtherewillbeattemptstoplaceClinton'slossonthelapsofAfricanAmericansandLatinosfornotturningout,thesekindsof
statementsaremisplacedforseveralreasons.

Forexample,thecompositionoftheelectoratewasnotstronglyDemocrat.Exitpollsplacedtheirshareofthevotersat37percent.This
isthesameshareoftheelectorateDemocratsheldin2004whenJohnKerrylost.DemocratsunderClintoncouldnotmaintainthe
levelsofturnoutamongtheirvotersthatPresidentBarackObamadid.

AnotherfactorthatmaycontributetolowturnoutistheimpactofthedismantlingofvoterprotectionlawsfollowingtheSupremeCourt
decision,Shelbyv.Holder.InstateslikeGeorgiaandNorthCarolina,theVotingRightsActwaslongrelieduponbyminoritiestodefend
againststringentelectorallawsthathadtheeffectofreducingvoterturnout.

WithoutthestrongerprotectionsoftheVotingRightsAct,researcherswillneedtoanalyzetheimpactthismayhavehadonminorities.

Alongwithturnout,theexitpollsillustratesomepeculiaritiesintheelectorate.Forexample,eventhoughTrumpranonacampaign
explicitlytargetingundocumentedimmigrants,theexitpollssaythat70percentofvoterspreferapathwaytolegalizationfor
undocumentedimmigrants.

Anotherpeculiarityisthat53percentofvotersintheexitpollssaidtheyapprovedofObama,thesamepercentwhoapprovedofhimas
in2012whenhewonthePresidency.AndyetmanywhoapprovedofObamachosetovoteforDonaldTrump,acandidatewhohadrun
explicitlyastheantiObama.

ThenumberssuggestedClintonwasnotabletoinspireAfricanAmericansinthewayObamadid.WhereasObamagarnered95
percentoftheblackvote,exitpollsshowonly88percentofAfricanAmericanscasttheirvoteforClinton.
Mostsurprisingly,officialexitpollsshowTrumpwon29percentoftheLatinovoteRomneyhadwon27percentin2012.For
researchers,thismaybeconfounding.DatafrompreelectionpollsgatheredbyotherpollingfirstshowTrump'sshareoftheLatinovote
closerto18percent.

ThepollingfirmLatinoDecisionssetoffaTwitterstormafterthereleaseofearlyexitpolldatathatshowedhighsupportforTrump.

AswithLatinos,blackmenvotedforTrumpinhighernumbersthantheirfemalecounterparts,at13percentcomparedto4percentof
blackwomen.

However,oneofthemoredifficultpartsoftheelectoratetopredictarenewvoters.Whilethenumberofnewvoterslastnightwerenot
muchdifferentthanin2008,about10percent,Clintononlywon56percentofthosefirsttimevoters,whileObamawon69percentof
firsttimevotersin2008.

ExplainingthiswilltaketimeandeffortgivenallthedatawehaveseentodateonLatinovoters.Asthedatacomesin,analystswill
needtochecktheirmodelsandtheassumptionsunderlyingthem.Fornow,weawaitwhataPresidentTrumpwilldoandwhatthat
meansforthekindofAmericawewanttobe.

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