Jose Presentation 7 Web

Tropical Cyclone
Jose Briefing
Decision Support Briefing 7
As of: 7 am Tuesday, Sep. 19, 2017
Insert picture of hazard. If What Has Changed?

more space is needed for Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect
the What Has Changed for southeastern CT and eastern Long
Island
section can be omitted. Coastal Flood Warning for South Shore
Bays of New York City and Nassau
County Tonight into Wednesday AM
Coastal Flood Advisory Southwestern
CT and western Long Island Sound
shores for Today
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 9/19/2017 7:00 AM
Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
Rip Currents Dangerous surf and risk of strong Rip Rip Current Risk into
Currents; Widespread dune erosion and the weekend
High Surf localized wash-overs possible during Atlantic Ocean Beaches High Surf - into
Beach Erosion high tides late Today Wed. Thursday
30 to 40% chance of tropical storm force

winds of 39-73 mph across far Eastern Highest impacts along
Long Island and SE CT; 10 to 20% across the Twin Forks and
the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ; 20 southern New London
6 pm this eve to 6 pm
Wind to 30% Elsewhere . County with lesser
Wednesday
damage elsewhere,
Scattered power outages possible limited mainly to coastal
caused by downed tree limbs and some locations
downed trees
1 to 1.5 inches of rain may cause Eastern Long Island and
Today through
Rain flooding of low lying and poor drainage southeastern CT. Lower
Wednesday
areas amounts elsewhere.
All coastal waters
Tropical storm force winds of at least 34 6 pm this eve to 6 pm
Marine kt possible
except NY Harbor and W
Wednesday
Long Island Sound
Most Vulnerable
Minor coastal flooding Today; Minor- Locations: South shore Around the times of
Coastal Flooding Moderate coastal flooding Tonight and of Long Island/NYC, high tides late today
Weather Forecast Office possibly on Wednesday including the backshore Presentation
through Created
Wednesday.
New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Followbays,
us on Facebook
and Twin Forks 9/19/2017 7:00 AM
Summary of Greatest Impacts
Beach/Inundation: Atl. Beaches/Wrn. Coastal Areas
SSShoresGeographicInformation
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Wind: Highest Eastern Long Island/SE CT Note:

Hazard impact level
definitions can be
Flooding Rain: Long Island and CT found on our
Hurricane Threats
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme and Impacts Page
http://www.weathe
r.gov/srh/tropical?of
Tornado: fice=okx#hti
Marine: Atlantic Ocean Coastal Waters


Tropical Cyclone Jose
5 am NHC Forecast Advisory
Insert Graphic
depicting Category 1 Hurricane
forecast to weaken as it
Hazard and/or passes southeast of Long
Impacts Island on Wednesday as a
Tropical Storm.
Wind and surge impacts will

be felt well outside the cone
See next slide

Impacts Occur Well Away from the Center
Closest Approach:
Approximately 150 miles

southeast of Montauk Point
and 280 miles southeast of
NYC.
Impacts to our area likely well

outside of the forecast center
(wind, rain and coastal
Tropical Storm Force Winds impacts)
Well Outside of Cone

Surge/Inundation Hazard and Impacts
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=CFW&for
mat=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Surge/Inundation Threat:
New Moon Sep. 19; astronomical tides running high
Minor coastal flooding expected with the morning high tide, Moderate coastal flooding
expected Tonight across the backshore bays of Southern New York City/Long Island and the
Twin Forks of Long Island. Moderate coastal flooding is possible in these locations with
Wednesday mornings high tide as well. Elsewhere minor coastal flooding is expected Tonight
and possible Wednesday morning.
Timing:
Peak impacts will be around the times of high tide late Today into Wednesday.
Potential Impacts for Coastal Flooding:

Some inundation in shoreline communities and vulnerable areas.
Elevated threat of property damage - Some low-lying coastal and shoreline roads
will be impassable.

Rainfall Forecast
Insert Graphic Rain Threat:

Sharp west to east gradient of
depicting rainfall based on storm track; 1-
1.5 inches across eastern Long
Hazard and/or Island and SE CT; Less than 1
inch elsewhere
Impacts
Timing:
Heaviest rain Today through
Wednesday morning. Urban
flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas possible.

Wind Hazard and Impacts
5 am NHC Forecast Advisory
Tropical Wind Threat:
Chance of Tropical Storm force

winds - most likely over far
eastern Long Island and SE CT.
Timing:
IF Jose maintains its track, tropical
storm force winds possible after 12
pm; Most likely after midnight
Tonight into Wednesday.
Impacts:
Minor damage to trees with
possible scattered power
outages; damage most likely
over far Eastern Long Island
and SE CT.

Forecast Uncertainties or Scenarios
IF Jose moves further east or weakens more than forecast, all impacts
(wind, rain, and coastal flooding) will be less.
IF Jose moves further west than forecast, tropical storm force winds,
heavier rain and more significant coastal flooding will spread further
west.

Event Summary
REMEMBER that impacts occur well outside of the forecast error

cone (see slide 5).
The NHC wind speed probability graphic shows the potential of being
impacted by a tropical storm.
The best chance for tropical storm force winds remains across far
eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut
Minor coastal flooding is expected; moderate coastal flooding with

inundation of 1 to less than 3 feet above ground level is expected
tonight and into Wednesday along the south shores of NYC/Long
Island (including the Back Bays) and the Twin Forks of Long Island.


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Tropical Cyclone

Insert picture of hazard. If What Has Changed?

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

30 to 40% chance of tropical storm force

Wind: Highest Eastern Long Island/SE CT Note:

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Marine: Atlantic Ocean Coastal Waters

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Wind and surge impacts will

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Approximately 150 miles

Impacts to our area likely well

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Potential Impacts for Coastal Flooding:

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Insert Graphic Rain Threat:

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Chance of Tropical Storm force

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

REMEMBER that impacts occur well outside of the forecast error

Minor coastal flooding is expected; moderate coastal flooding with

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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