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MONGOLIA, 1st NATIONAL WORKSHOP

Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth


Strategies in Northeast Asia

14th April 2010


Ulaanbaatar Hotel, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

GHG Inventory and


mitigation analysis
in Mongolia
Dr. DORJPUREV JARGAL
EEC Mongolia
Contents

• Mongolia’s GHG Inventory


• GHG Mitigation strategies and options
• GHG Mitigation assessment analysis
Mongolia’s GHG Inventory
GHG Emissions in CO2-eq by gases for the period 1990-
1990-2006

Carbon dioxide is the most significant source of the greenhouse gases in


Mongolia’s inventory with a share of 50.4 % of the total CO2-eq emissions in
2006 followed by methane, which comprises 41.8%. The remaining gases
(N2O, HFCs) make up 7.8% of Mongolia’s GHG Emissions.
Mongolia’s GHG Inventory
Contribution to total CO2-eq emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006

In 2006, the energy sector (including stationary energy, transport and fugitive emissions) was
the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions comprising 65.4% of total GHG emissions in
CO2-equivalent. The second largest source of GHG emissions was agriculture sector (41.4%).
For Land use change and forestry sector, the total CO2 removals were 13.3% due to increase
of the area of abandoned lands and reduce of newly cultivated land. Other relatively minor
sources currently include emissions from industrial process and waste sector.
Mongolia’s GHG Inventory

Contribution to methane emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006

The main contributor to the total methane emissions is the agriculture sector with about
92- 93% of the total methane emissions The second biggest contribution comes from the
energy sector with about 5-6%, while all other sectors are contributing with less then 2%
in total.
Mongolia’s GHG Inventory
Total Greenhouse gas emissions

In 1990, Mongolia’s net GHG emissions were 22532 thousand tones CO2-eq. and the net GHG
emissions were reduced up to 14850 thousand tones in 1995. The reduction of net GHG emissions
is mostly due to socio-economic slowdown during the transition period from socialism to market
economy. But during this period the methane emissions are increased due to increase of livestock
population. The HFCs are increased for the period 1990-2006 due to increase of refrigerators and
vehicles with air conditions.
Mongolia’s GHG Inventory
Per Capita Emissions

CO2/GDP, kg CO2 per US$ (2000)


8

7 7.50
6.97
6

4 4.41

3
2.68
2

1 0.70 0.75
0.24
0

If compare with the other developed and developing countries, the total GHG emissions
is small, but per capita and per GDP emissions is high. Mongolia’s per capita emissions
were 6.0 tons /person, which is almost 2 times more than developing countries average.
Per GDP CO2 emissions are 10 times more than world average
Mitigation strategies to Climate change
Mitigation options
(The energy sector of Mongolia is the largest contributor to GHG emissions. The cold continental
climate and use of coal contribute to high rate of emissions per capita and domestic production)
Energy sector
• Increase Renewable options
– Hydro Power Plants
– Wind farms
– PV and solar heating
• Efficiency improvement of Heating boilers
– Efficiency improvement of existing HOB,
– Install boilers new design with high efficiency
– Converting steam boilers into small capacity thermal power plant
• Improvement of household stoves and furnaces
– Modernization of existing household stoves and furnaces
– Implementation of new design household stoves and furnaces
– Change of fuels for household stoves and furnaces
• Improving of coal quality
– Coal briquette
– Application of effective mining technology and facilities, including
selective mining, dewatering system coal handling plant.
• CHP improvement options
– Efficiency improvement
– Reduction of internal use
Mitigation strategies to Climate change
Non-energy sector
• Building • Agriculture
– Building insulation improvements – To limit the increase of the total
– Building standards number of livestock by increasing
– Improvements of district heating the productivity of each type of
system in buildings animals, especially cattle.
– Lighting efficiency improvements – To promote industrial livestock
production enterprises
• Industry
• Land use change and forestry
– Technology change (Dry process of
cement industry and others) – Natural regeneration
– Motor efficiency improvements – Plantation forestry
– Lighting efficiency improvements – Agro-forestry
– Promotion of ESCO activities – Bioelectricity

• Transport • Waste
– Vehicle fuel combustion efficiency – Landfill methane recovery
improvement – Comprehensive waste management
– Improvements road conditions – Alternative waste
– Taxes on vehicle management, such as recycling
purchase, registration, use and
motor fuels, road and parking pricing
Mitigation strategies to Climate change

Implementation possibilities of Greenhouse Gas mitigation projects

• Mongolia is one of the potential host countries of CDM projects.


Despite a small population and economy, Mongolia’s GHG emissions
are relatively large, due mostly to climatic factors (cold winters). In
particular, there is considerable scope to use renewable energy
resources to replace fossil fuels, to reduce fossil fuel input by
replacing outdated heating equipment with more efficient heating
equipment, and to increase energy efficiency in supply and demand
sectors.
• CDM can play an important role in the sustainable development of
Mongolia’s economy – CDM can help to reduce pollution, make the
economy more competitive, create employment, and reduce poverty.
Especially given Mongolia climatic conditions, the potential benefits to
Mongolia from CDM can be relatively large.
• Recently the several projects are approved and registered as CDM
projects
GHG Mitigation assessment analysis
Models for Mitigation Analysis in the UNFCCC Context
Top-Down and Bottom
Top- • LEAP
up models – Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning
system
– Primary Developer: Stockholm Environment
Both Top-Down and Bottom Institute
up models can yield useful • ENPEP
insights on mitigation. – Energy and Power Evaluation Program
– Primary Developers: Argonne National
• Top-down models are most Laboratory and the International Atomic
useful for studying broad Energy Authority (IAEA)
macroeconomic and fiscal • MARKAL
policies for mitigation such as – MARKet Allocation model
carbon or other environmental
– Primary Developers: IEA/ETSAP
taxes.
• Bottom-up models are most • RETSCREEN
– Renewable Energy Technology Screening
useful for studying options that
– Primary Developers: Natural Resources
have specific sectoral and Canada
technological implications.
• All are integrated scenario modeling
tools except RETSCREEN, which
The most mitigation assessment has screens renewable and CHP
so far focused on bottom-up technologies.
approaches. • Modeling can also use spreadsheets
and/or other tools.
GHG Mitigation assessment analysis

LEAP Structure • Key Assumptions: independent


variables
(demographic, macroeconomic, etc.)
• Demand: energy demand analysis
(including transport analyses).
• Statistical Differences: the differences
between final consumption values and
energy demands.
• Transformation: analysis of energy
conversion, extraction, transmission and
distribution. Organized into different
modules, processes and output fuels.
• Stock Changes: the supply of primary
energy from stocks. Negative values
indicate an increase in stocks.
• Resources: the availability of primary
resources (indigenous and imports)
including fossil reserves and renewable
resources.
• Non-energy sector effects: inventories
and scenarios for non-energy related
effects.
GHG Mitigation assessment analysis

Typical Data Requirements


Macroeconomic Sectoral driving variables GDP/value added, population,
Variables household size
Energy Sector and subsector Fuel use by sector/subsector
Demand Data totals
Energy Supply Characteristics of energy Capital and O&M costs, performance
Data supply, transport, and (efficiencies, capacity factors, etc.)
conversion facilities

Energy supply plans New capacity on-line dates, costs,


characteristics;
Energy resources and Reserves of fossil fuels; potential for
prices renewable resources
Technology Technology costs and Capital and O&M costs, foreign
Options performance exchange, performance (efficiency, unit
usage, capacity factor, etc.)

Penetration rates Percent of new or existing stock


replaced per year
Emission Factors Emissions per unit energy consumed,
produced, or transported.
GHG Mitigation assessment analysis

Energy Balance
Scenario: Reference, Year: 2006 (Thousand Tons of Coal Equivalent)
Electricity Gasoline Jet Diesel LPG Coal Coal Wood Wind Solar Heat Total
Kerosene Bituminous Lignite
Production 0 0 0 0 0 230 2999 588 0 1 0 3818
Imports 21 280 28 438 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 768
Exports -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
From Stock Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 172 0 0 0 0 172
Total Primary Supply 20 280 28 438 1 230 3171 588 0 1 0 4756
HOBs 0 0 0 0 0 0 -409 0 0 0 245 -164
Generation 415 0 0 -25 0 0 -2385 0 0 0 868 -1126
Transmission and -53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -26 -79
Distribution
Station own use -69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -62 -131
Total Transformation 293 0 0 -25 0 0 -2794 0 0 0 1026 -1500

Statistical Differences 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Household 73 0 0 0 1 0 302 588 0 1 436 1400


Industry 196 0 0 29 0 230 0 0 0 0 325 779
Transport 0 280 28 384 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 693
Commercial 40 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 0 265 380
Agriculture 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Total Demand 313 280 28 413 1 230 377 588 0 1 1026 3256

Unmet Requirements 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GHG Mitigation
assessment analysis
GHG Mitigation
assessment analysis
GHG Mitigation assessment analysis

Energy Balance
Scenario: Reference, Year: 2030 (Thousand Tons of Coal Equivalent)
Electricity Gasoline Jet Diesel LPG Coal Coal Wood Wind Solar Hydro Heat Total
Kerosene Bituminous Lignite
Production 0 0 0 0 0 1432 9367 645 38 1 152 0 11636
Imports 35 1157 58 2673 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4021
Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
From Stock Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 172 0 0 0 0 0 172
Total Primary Supply 35 1157 58 2673 99 1432 9539 645 38 1 152 0 15828
HOBs 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1025 0 0 0 0 615 -410
Generation 1673 0 0 -6 0 0 -7045 0 -38 0 -152 2138 -3430

Transmission and -205 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -41 -246


Distribution
Station own use -255 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -136 -391
Total Transformation 1212 0 0 -6 0 0 -8070 0 -38 0 -152 2576 -4477

Statistical Differences 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Household 383 0 0 0 99 0 993 645 1 1 0 1199 3321

Industry 629 0 0 444 0 1432 0 0 0 0 0 523 3028


Transport 0 1157 58 2224 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3438
Commercial 224 0 0 0 0 0 476 0 0 0 0 854 1553
Agriculture 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11
Total Demand 1247 1157 58 2667 99 1432 1469 645 1 1 0 2576 11351

Unmet Requirements 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GHG Mitigation assessment analysis
GHG Mitigation assessment analysis

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Creating policy Scenarios


• Efficient lighting
• Building Insulation
• Industrial efficiency
• Transmission and distribution losses reduction
• Station own use reduction
• Renewable energy

For Each Scenario:


• Technology Penetration: how many of the new (efficient) types of devices
will be installed in the policy scenario?
• Technology Performance: how efficient are the new devices or technology
• Technology cost: how much do the new devices cost?
Thank you for attention